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The Bill Simmons Podcast
An OKC-Houston Slugfest, MJ on NBC, and a Seven-Week NFL Awards Draft With Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, and Craig Horlbeck
02:07:01
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- [00:01]
Bill Simmons
This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. Every time I sit down and watch the game, I find myself getting a little hungry. Football and food, they just go together. Luckily, Uber Eats has game day deals all season long on the food you love. Like right now, you can score a Bogo KFC three piece chicken big box. Whether you're ordering from your favorite restaurant or getting snacks from the grocery store, Uber Eats has you covered for game day. Order now on Uber Eats promotion available until November 9th. Product availability varies by region. See app for details. Terms apply. The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook we are also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. It was the last episode of Redford Month. We did Quiz Show, a movie that he directed. It was me and Brian Koppelman, so you can find that wherever you get your pots, preferably on Spotify. Also Prestige tv. We broke down the last episode of Task. Is it the season? Is it the series? I guess it's just the season. We will find out. But it was me and Joanna Robinson and Rob Mahoney talking about that on the ringer.com, we did a bunch of basketball stuff this week. We have a bunch of basketball podcasts and we are about to talk basketball. At the top of this podcast. I had the shrewd idea Veteran experience because we have a full podcast. We did a whole football thing. Me, Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, Craig Horbeck. We handed out some after seven weeks awards. We came up with a dopey draft gimmick that was really fun actually and basically broke down the whole season. And it could have been its own podcast. But something in my head was like OKC versus Houston. We should wait to see what happens in this game and maybe that could be the lead of my podcast. So my instincts were correct. The veteran Bill Simmons, he's seen some things in his day. Anyway, we're going to talk about that at the top and then a big, big football after seven weeks. I don't even know what the gimmick is that we did that you would call it, but I had a really good time. It's all next. We'll take a break. Then Pearl Jam. This is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on, FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in. Live your way so you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts recently. Guess what I did use Fando Super Fun. Download the FanDuel app or go to Fando.com BS to get started. Must be 21 + President select states 18 + in D.C. kentucky and Wyoming. Gamma problem. Call win 800 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 888-78-9777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. All right, OKC versus Huge Houston was the first game tonight. It was on NBC. So was Warriors, Lakers, which is happening right now as I'm recording this cause I'm recording after the OKC Houston game. Listen, we've seen a million warriors games. We've seen the Lakers without LeBron. We know what we're getting from that game. We did not know what we were getting from OKC Houston. And what we got was an absolute masterpiece. Double overtime. Houston had chances in regulation. OkC tied it with 2 seconds left. SGA just went into MVP kick ass mode down the stretch there. OkC and OT had big leads, started missing threes, missed a Crusoe dunk. Houston comes back, tie game. KD does the Chris Weber timeout. They don't call it. We go into double OT and then SGA just kind of took over and then all of a sudden he didn't because Sengun hit this runner and Houston was up. And then the last possession in the game, SJ on the side, KD guarding him and he does like this triple spin thing. Gets KD to foul and makes both free throws and OKC wins the game. And we're about to break it down on a very special segment. Look at this. I got some Michelob Ultras next to me. We're going to open a six pack. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. And as the NBA season starts, one of the big questions I had was what's up with this Houston team? They don't have a point guard, they have all this size. They who is going to be the guy they go to at the end of games? Well, this game they lost. They lost in double ot, but it felt like a win for them. I went under for them on the 52 and a half and the first thing I want to do out of my six pack, I felt like Houston, I know Jalen Williams wasn't in there. You have to mention that there was no Jalen Williams. It was basically only SGA controlling the ball at the, in the fourth quarter and both overtimes. But what the, the piece that I thought stood out to me, I was like, you know, I've gotten into the UFC the last seven, eight years, and sometimes it'll be two takedown artists going against each other and it becomes a battle of who is actually better at this one thing, right? So you have okc. You know, they want chaos, they want disorder, and they want everything to kind of run through SG at the end of games, but they just want this chaotic. They're pressing, they're all over the place, Defense, athleticism. And then Houston's basically going, yeah, we like that too. But we're just going to field this giant team of guys. Their starting lineup average 6 foot 10. They had size, they had defense, they had power. And the rebounds, at one point they were like plus 12 in rebounds. But they were basically like, we're going to try to do what you guys do, except we're much bigger and we have some really goofy one on one stuff we can do beyond what you guys have with SGA and Jalen Williams when he comes back. So they're, they're, they have Ahmed Thompson at the top, just trying to beat people off the dribble. They have kd, obviously, Jabari Smith, who I thought looked really good, and then Sengun, who was one of the big sleepers heading into the season with the Eurobasket, where he just was awesome. And it was a real question of where do we put this guy? Well, he was toe to toe with everything, and I think, you know, I don't want to overreact after one game. And I'm trying, I'm really trying hard not to. I've taken a lot of overreaction medication, just trying to chill out and watch his games and not think too much. But I really wanted to see over everything else with this first batch of games. What is Houston going to look like without a point guard? Can they do this? Can they take turns just bringing the ball up? Can they get into their offense? And the answer is they could. I thought Thompson looked like he went up a level. Of course, he gave so much on offense and on defense, guarding Shay, running a lot of plays, getting to the basket. He was the crunch time guy at the end of regulation, over and over again getting to the rim, and then his body gave out, he had cramps, and they wisely sat him for the rest of the game, which I think was a good move. But he went up A level. Sengun went up a level. Jabari went up a level. There's going to be games where, you know, teams just pressure them, try to put miles on them, try to make it hard for them to get in their offense. We saw it a bunch of times in this one, especially with Reed shepherd, who we'll go into in a second. But they convinced me tonight that they just bring so many things to the table that this one glaring flaw they have. I think guards matter. I don't think that's a hot take. We see this over and over again, especially on the road. Somebody has settled on offense. Somebody run pick and roll. Somebody guard the best guard on the other team. There's a million reasons why we are not going to have a championship team that just doesn't have a guard. You're always going to need one. But Houston's like, we're going to patch this together and this might just work for us. And tonight I really thought, I thought their ceiling was a little higher than maybe I was anticipating. I think the over under was 52 and a half after what I saw tonight. You know, it's a little bit health dependent with kd, but man, with the Sengun and Thompson both going up a level, which they clearly did, that was my first takeaway is like I'm taking this team more seriously than I did 48 hours ago. And I think you look at the West, I had OKC and Denver at the top. I had Minnesota and the Clippers right underneath them. Then Houston, they're probably in that five spot, but then San Antonio's kind of lurking and then you have Dallas and there's another west team. I'm just Golden State. So it was just a question of who's going to actually go up a level. And I didn't think Houston could do it without Van Vliet, but maybe they can. So I'm at least like, I'm at least inviting the possibility that this might be a mid-50s win team. So that's my first takeaway. I've just changed mentally where I had this team in my head. Second one, you had Chet, you had Amen Thompson, you had Shangun in this game today. And Chet had the big first quarter and of course fouled out, but looked like the healthy version of what we were seeing down the stretch last year. And I had him as a top 20 guy. So top nine Joker, SGA, Giannis, Luka, Wemby, Ant and then Mitchell, Brunson, Curry. That's gotta be your top nine in some order. The Next group had Cade and Jdub and AD and Paolo and KD and Booker and Townes and Chet in some order. Right. And the question for Chet is, and I probably have Chet high. I don't even think some people would have him a team. But the question for Chet is, can he start climbing up that ladder? I had Thompson in the high twenties and I had shengoon in the hop twenties. When we did our ringer 100. The sengun thing I already am revising in my head because he looked like a top 20 guy tonight. OKC was trying all kinds of different things, especially like they settled on just Caruso just pointing himself right in his chest. And Sengun figured out all these different ways to exploit that. And on top of that, he had five threes. If he went up a level and Thompson went up a level. I just think they have to be considered a real contender regardless of the Van Buet thing. And they can always fix that at the trade deadline. Chet, we'll see. Did some good stuff. But I thought the big winners of today, Thompson's two way stuff, the stuff he did against SGA for three quarters was ridiculous. And then. And the fact that he was getting his offense a little more. That started last year, him trying to get into the basket, but. All right, that's enough nerdy basketball stuff for you. Next thing on the six pack, Reed Shepherd. So we were thinking maybe this guy was going to be the next Mark Price. Look, it's one bad game and he's going against probably the worst possible team for him to play. Right? He's the opening night. It's NBC. He's going against sga. He's going against Dort and Caruso and Kayson Wallace. This is a nightmare team with some pressure on him and they need him because he's the only actual guard who can get them into their offense, who can run little pick and rolls for them, who could beat guys off the dribble and kick back out and things like that. He was awful. And we were thinking that maybe he could be the next Mark Price. He looked like Brent Price today. And I actually was texting House about how I can't wait to see Reed shepherd and the Wizards and he's like, we had him. He was Brent Price. They need him to be, needless to say, way better than he was today because they actually need him. They need some sort of point guard and if it's not him, they're going to have to go trade for somebody, make some moves. But he was relentlessly targeted on defense. He just got, I thought, demolished by Wallace in a couple points this game. He would get heat checky sometimes, and it was inappropriate because it was both. He was playing terrible, but also had a lot of confidence, which I didn't mind, but it just. It was really rough. He's the guy to watch on this team. I feel good about everything else that they have. We'll see with KD at age 37, how he ages over the course of the year, how many games he misses. But I think shepherd, these first 20 games, can they build him up? Can they shade him more toward Mark Price and less toward Brent Price would be the thing I want to watch. I can't imagine the way he looked tonight. That can't be somebody you rely on in a playoff series. I don't think so. That is my third take for the six pack, the fourth one. The NBA and NBC, we were back. It was great day around Ball Rock. It was a. It was a kindler, gentler, happier coverage of the NBA of the National Basketball association. Just pleasant. Very reminiscent of their Sunday Night Football in America, which is just basically a big love letter to the NFL. And this is something that I think was very important to the NBA as they went into these meteorites, things where you had the, you know, the TNT guys, really critical, which I support, but really critical of the league the last couple years, and then the ESPN guys, you know, we don't have to talk about espn. The kind of first takeization of how they treat the NBA. So the NBC was just like a pleasant hang with a song that we like. And what's interesting is Round Ball Rock was underrated. Then it became properly rated. And then over the last year, when NBC got basketball, I was like, oh, my God, we're gonna get Round Ball Rock back. And it actually became overrated. It was like, all right, Round Ball Rock's fine. It's not like this amazing. We don't have to talk about it all the time. And then it started and it was like, this is the best. I love it. I love Round Ball Rock. It was great to have back. Good to have Mike Tirico back calling basketball. I thought Jamal Crawford was fine. The thing I liked about him, in a three man booth, you need somebody to kind of lay out and not try to get off too many shots. And I thought he found a nice little balance and actually had some decent points. And then Reggie Miller was Reggie Miller. He did have his first argument with himself in overtime. So that was the official start of the season. He thought Jabari Smith Traveled and moved his pivot foot. And then they showed the replay. He's like, he moved his pivot foot. And then they show it and he didn't. He's like, he didn't move his pivot foot. I think he invented that. The self argument during a broadcast is a Reggie Miller. So staple. The weird thing, though, it really struck me today that TNT doesn't have the NBA. Like, think about every opening night with this massive the Barkley show for an hour beforehand, then the rings, and it just. It felt like our entire lives. That was the opening. I know it's probably 22, 23 years, but it was really notable how different it was for the opening night. It almost didn't feel like opening night. And then the game started and it did. But, yeah, RIP tnt. And welcome aboard Round Ball Rock. So we'll see how it goes this season. Speaking of NBC, fifth thing for the Sick Pack, the Six Pack. So they had this Michael Jordan thing. They've been playing it up a lot, and they called it Degrees of Excellence or Insights in Excellence or something. It basically just turned out to be an interview with Mike Tirico that they probably filmed for two hours and they're just going to cut segments out of. I can't think of a single thing that happened during the halftime thing, but it's riveting to watch Michael Jordan. And I realized it doesn't really matter what he says. His insights, his observations, his thoughts about the league. It just doesn't matter, because anything he says, I'm captivated. He was like, he told some story about he rented a house and there was a basketball career. I don't even know what happened. And I was nodding like, yeah, this is great. Michael Jordan. I think the next one, he's going to come back and just be like, yeah, I went to dinner last night. I ordered a steak. I got it medium rare. I had two glasses of Pinot noir, and then I paid the check. And then they're like, that was Insights of Excellence from Michael Jordan. I'd be like, that was great. Could watch him talk about anything. So he might be the first person who's ever been on a pregame halftime show where I literally don't care what he says. I just like having him around. It's just nice to have MJ aboard. So congratulations, NBC. Last one, okc. Their fans booed Kevin Durant lustily again. He left nine years ago. Think about how long that was. That was like, if you take nine years and then add another seven, that was the last time The Yankees won the World Series. That's how long ago? Nine years ago is nine years ago.
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Danny Kelly
I had.
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Bill Simmons
Did I still have a show on hbo? No, they might have canceled it by then, but, yeah, nine years ago. Really long time. The ringer's 10 years old and they're still booing him and they still hate his guts. And on the one hand, I love it because I love the real fans, and that's just how they feel. And I would never tell them not to feel that way. But on the other hand, it's been nine years and they have a new team and they won the title last year, and SGA is now the best player in the history of the city. At some point, this is starting to feel petty. There might be more things going on, quotes that KD said over the years that I've missed, but it made me think, like, they're just never going to forgive him. And I totally get it, because I felt the same way about Roger Clemens, which I think my second or third piece for Page two on ESPN was called Roger Clemens is the Antichrist. And Roger Clemens was even in the booth last year for Nessen for a Red Sox game. It was either this year or last year. And I was just pissed off that they even let him in the booth. And this was a guy who left the Red Sox in 1996, almost 30 years ago. And I'm still mad about it. So I get it. Listen, I'm not one to judge, but I just want to point out, like, he did have an awesome nine years there, and they did win the title. And if there was ever a time they were going to be like, you know what? You've had a great career. Let's let bygones be bygones. It would have been tonight, but it wasn't. So this is just the way it's going to be forever. I guess. They're always going to hate him. And it made me think, like. And I think I've talked about this before, but this really banged it home. I always thought he was going to work it out with OKC. Like, Cleveland forgave LeBron. LeBron's at a different level than KD, but for the most part, you always feel like it's. Eventually people get older, they forget. They don't remember why they're mad. And then, I mean, John Skipper was on this podcast once. As time passes, you forget why you had animosity for things. But I don't think it's ever going to happen with this. So if okc, if he's never going to be in good graces in okc. And it's. I don't think it's going to happen with the warriors either. Definitely not Brooklyn. No way. In Phoenix. So you have this situation where he's. He might retire and just not belong to any team. And I really genuinely thought it would be like, years later be like, okay, so you'd be like, all right, fine. We had nine great years. You win the MVP here, you were a great story. We'll take you back. But he might, might never happen. This happened with Clemens. I don't know what Clemens all these years later is. Clemens belonged to the Red Sox, the Astros, the Yankees, Blue Jays, kind of nothing. But he's a Hall of Famer. He's one of the best pitchers of the last 50 years, and he made a ton of money. And maybe that's all that matters. KD signed this new extension, and now he has the money record. He's made almost $600 million. That's the most money any basketball player has ever made. And I guess. I guess he's going to have to settle for that. But unless this Houston thing goes fantastic and he ends up being a guy in Houston, he's just not going to have a place to go back to after he retires. And I do think that's mildly important. Like, I see with the Celtics all the time when people like Antoine Walker come back and, you know, are lustily cheered. Everybody that's ever had a meaningful moment with the Celtics that I can think of, they've been able to come back. And I don't think this was ever going to happen with KD and okc. So it just kind of struck me tonight, like, wow, this is. This is forever. That's it for the six pack. That's all I got for you. A lot of observations from one game. And we have 82 games for every team. This is the first game of the year. But a lot of moments are worth playing for. The ones that taste best are served gold cold. And whatever happens this season, catch every moment with Michelo Boltra, the official beer partner of the NBA. They're getting fans close to the game and the chance to win courtside seats, a trip to All Star weekend, custom merch and much more. Michelob Ultra Superior is worth playing for. Enter now@michelob ultra.com Courtside Michelob Ultra Courtside 2025-2026 no purchase necessary open US residence 21/plus begins on October 1, 2025 so it already began. Ends on June 30, 2026 multiple entry periods. See official rules@michelobalcher.com Courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. We'll have more basketball coming up on Thursday's pod. We're gonna take a break, come back and we're gonna talk a lot of big picture football angles with a little draft with the fantasy guys Danny, Danny and Craig. Up next, the Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Basketball's back. FanDuel is putting you in control right now. From tip off every day to start this season, you get to choose your reward. Play it safe, go for a feeling bold. That's your move. Whatever your style, you're in control. So what kind of better are you if you look at those Wednesday night games, I really like Charlotte at home against Brooklyn parlayed with Milwaukee at home against Washington. Kind of like that Charlotte team as being a little frisky. I like Milwaukee as a playoff team and I think Washington and Brooklyn are going to be two of the three worst teams in the league. So you parlay that together, it's almost even us. Knock yourself out, have a great time. However you play, FanDuel has given you the power to choose your reward and own your game every single day. To start the NBA season, here's what you got to do. Head to FanDuel.com BS to make your choice. Must be 21 + President in select states or 18 + in President in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in Required rewards are non withdrawable. Restrictions apply including bonus and token expiration, leg requirements and max wager amount. See terms@supportsbook.fanduel.com, gAM problem. Call 100 Gambler, visit rg-help.com call 1-888-78-9777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain. Sure, they're both captains, but who's going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help you need, State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right, we're taping this on a Tuesday afternoon. All the ringer people are in town, including our fantasy football guys. So we get together before the season. We do the Buy Guy fantasy draft. Some losers that we had in that one, man. Some winners, too. Igbuka.
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Craig Horbeck
Yeah. Jsn.
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Bill Simmons
Jsn. Who else did we have? What else do we feel good about?
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Danny Heifetz
McCaffrey was good.
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Bill Simmons
Oh, yeah. Did anybody like Taylor, who's been probably the best guy?
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Danny Kelly
I feel like we kind of whiffed on that one.
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Bill Simmons
I have a league where I have Bowers, Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans, who made this amazing catch yesterday, dropped the ball, rolled over and died for like five minutes.
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Craig Horbeck
The rare, like broken shoulder and concussion in the same play.
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Bill Simmons
It's just like, is he gonna get up? Yeah. All right. We're going to talk about the NFL season. We have a really dumb gimmick draft that we're going to give. But before we do that, Danny Kelly, your Seattle Seahawks. We were the only ones. I'm not. You don't want to talk Mariners.
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Danny Kelly
I thought you were going to bring up the Mariners. Yeah.
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Bill Simmons
How you three one in the seventh inning to go to the World Series.
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Craig Horbeck
For the first time.
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Danny Kelly
Yeah, we don't need to talk about that.
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Bill Simmons
Third and second. You pitched to George Springer, who has 22 postseason home runs now 23. No, I'm not going to bring that up. Yeah, that was tough. What a magical ride for the Mariners, though.
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Danny Kelly
It was fun. I will say that it was. It was a really fun playoff run. I mean, it's going to be memorable in like the play in the team lore and everything like that. Definitely brutal to end that way, but so many great memories. You know the Suarez grand slam the other day, I went to that 15 inning game.
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Bill Simmons
He's still shaking.
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Danny Kelly
It's like, man. But yeah, I was like, yeah, he.
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Craig Horbeck
Was at the 15 inning game, which is awesome. They should have gone after Springer's other knee. That was the problem, I think.
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Danny Kelly
I know. It had to be Springer, didn't it?
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Danny Heifetz
He was actually pissed about the Ohtani, the best baseball game ever played because he felt like it overshadowed the Mariners.
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Bill Simmons
His best baseball game. Yeah, that makes sense.
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Danny Heifetz
Yeah.
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Bill Simmons
Well, I thought if you were. If it was going to be a one run game in game seven. I thought Mariners every time with the Blue Jays, bullpen, the whole thing. But somehow it didn't work out. Tough one, the two expansion teams. I'm old enough to remember when they joined the league in 1976. It's like, look at these two clowns, Toronto and Seattle. What the hell are they gonna do? But yeah. So that was the closest you've come.
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Danny Kelly
Yeah. The only team now in the majors have not been to the World Series.
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Bill Simmons
Unbelievable. I really thought you Had a better time. What do I know?
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Craig Horbeck
Wow.
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Bill Simmons
Well, on the bright side, the Seattle Seahawks, a team that we were both high on heading into the season, I think even Mina, I don't feel like she gets to jump on the bandwagon for this.
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Danny Kelly
I feel like she was pretty positive.
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Bill Simmons
Generally speaking, pretty positive.
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Danny Kelly
We were out on the. We were not as confident on the Darnold thing. I think even though I thought the Seahawks defense was going to be really good.
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Bill Simmons
Well, they're 5 and 2 and somehow plus 270 odds for the division that's our. Is that our best division? NFC West? Because the Cardinals are probably the best two and five or under team they've been in a lot of these games.
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Craig Horbeck
Yeah, I would say so.
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Danny Kelly
She's an AFC West.
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Danny Heifetz
Maybe if Brissette's playing. It's the best division in football.
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Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
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Danny Heifetz
You know, Kyler three for four is not bad.
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Bill Simmons
What's been the biggest surprise for seven weeks for your non Giants related.
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Danny Heifetz
I mean, I mean non Giants related. Still Giants related. Daniel Jones being 6 and 1 and just looking. I mean the Giants released Daniel Jones 11 months ago and he just is 6 and 1. And I rooted for Daniel Jones for six seasons. Nobody said anything nice about him. That wasn't a Giants fan for six years. And I could keep waiting for just like a flood of public apologies from everybody. But I Daniel Jones looks like a completely different player in some ways.
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Bill Simmons
I don't understand how he's so accurate now. Was he accurate on the Giants or like how do you explain that?
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Danny Heifetz
I'm a big believer that like I think there's a certain group of quarterbacks that had injuries that weren't quite the same after the injury. We don't talk about them that way. Carson Wentz after the ACL and he had a bad concussion with the Eagles and then was never the same. Marcus Mariota had a nerve injury to throwing arm. No one talks about it that way. Jones had not just the knee injury but a neck injury and his deep, his arm strength, everything was totally sapped combined with just bad production and all this stuff that I just really I used to joke that I would worried about him like walking through Hoboken. I thought he'd get hit by a cab. He had no pocket awareness, couldn't see anything around him. But I think he's actually a lot like Darnold. Where you look at Darnold and even four or five years ago he's bouncing around the Vikings, the Niners like the Panthers and Darnold couldn't Sometimes a guy like Jaden Daniels, it feels like the game has slowed down for him in two weeks. And I think Daniel Jones this year is like Darnold last year where it took six years, but the game is slower for him. And you can tell that he just sees receivers later in the play and he's not losing track of what's happening on the field, even four or five seconds in a play.
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Bill Simmons
That all sounds great, Craig, but it's Daniel Jones. Like, at some point this makes no sense.
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Craig Horbeck
We said that about Darnold and he's doing it again. I think at a certain point, if the fit is right, the fit is right. Also, these guys are wide open on the Colts. Tyler Warren, there's never anybody within five yards of him. Yes. What Steichen is doing. Steichen, he's. There's a reason why he's the leading candidate for coach of the year. It's just all working. The line is working, everyone's open, and Daniel Jones is competent enough to do all that.
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Bill Simmons
Yeah, I was shocked. I said this to South Sunday night. It's second. You have them second and 10. You just feel like they're getting 8 to 9 yards. Like it's just guaranteed that somebody's going to be wide open or Taylor's going to slash through.
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Craig Horbeck
All their pieces work, too. Like, they have their deep threat guy with Alec Pierce, who's good. You have Tyler Warren, who's like this big tight end. Michael Pittman's good on the outside. Josh Downs is an overqualified slot wide receiver. Jonathan Taylor's the best running back in the league. The line is good.
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Danny Heifetz
It's like they could run, they can pass. It's an argument also for, like, stability and keeping the GM. I think Chris Ballard was one of the GMs that people were maybe going to be out of. He wouldn't pick a quarterback. Richardson bombed out. Like, there's a world where Chris Ballard gets fired at the end of last season, they keep him and you're like, oh, all these players who are balling out are homegrown players.
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Craig Horbeck
The weirdest part is that it was reportedly like a tough QB competition in August with him and Richardson and Daniel Johnson. Apparently it was tight. How is that possible?
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Danny Kelly
Weird stuff happens.
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Danny Heifetz
I think they were lying.
- [28:42]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I think they were lying because they jumped on Jones pretty quickly.
- [28:45]
Craig Horbeck
Feel better to make Daniel Jones work harder.
- [28:47]
Danny Heifetz
I think the idea was Daniel Jones was like, they were just supposed to, like, make Richardson jealous. And they were just as shocked as anybody that it's working. This Well, I don't think. I mean, I think that's one of the reasons the Titans fired Brian Callahan. Is I'm sure, the Titans out on their list. Should we sign Daniel Jones and have him compete with Cam Ward and the Titans? Brian Cowling probably said, no, he's no good. And now he's leading the Colts the 6 and 1 record. Like all these.
- [29:07]
Craig Horbeck
Can you blame Callahan, though? I feel like most teams would say that the Colter wasn't a terrible situation.
- [29:11]
Bill Simmons
He was so good he signed with the Vikings during last season and nobody was like, oh, savvy, smart move.
- [29:17]
Danny Heifetz
Example 7691 in the NFL. That success in the NFL is really hard to explain. And even the Ravens took a tight end before Lamar Jackson in the draft. Like, even the teams themselves sometimes don't have any clue how successful something will be.
- [29:30]
Danny Kelly
Well, the craziest thing to me about Daniel Jones is like Heifetz was talking about, he was worried about him crossing the street because he just didn't have the pocket awareness. Daniel Jones has taken very few sacks.
- [29:39]
Craig Horbeck
In fact, I think he's the least in the league, I believe, percentage wise.
- [29:41]
Danny Kelly
And I want to say I saw a stat the other day that they haven't taken any sacks on third or fourth down this year, which is incredible for a guy like Daniel Jones, who. I never would have guessed that for Daniel Jones.
- [29:51]
Danny Heifetz
And I know we have a whole category thing to do here. The term deer in the headlights is overused, but it actually is applicable because what actually happens to a deer is the eyes are really adjusted to the darkness. And then the headlights are like the brightest thing possible. So the reason the deer freezes is.
- [30:03]
Craig Horbeck
No, but I'm having the scientific explanation behind that.
- [30:06]
Danny Heifetz
But it's just you in the background. You wake up and you turn the lights on, you're like, oh, like you're a deer in the headlights.
- [30:11]
Bill Simmons
That's it.
- [30:11]
Danny Heifetz
And it takes. Literally takes your eyes time to adjust to the light. That's kind of pressure in the NFL quarterbacks. Like, you see the pressure and everything just it's that moment in the bathroom two in the morning. Like, you just can't see anything. And what we. When Darnold, it does feel like sometimes like the light comes out of their head, but really they just aren't. Their eyes are adjusting to pressure and they're able to see a pass rusher and they don't lose track of like, oh, there's Michael Pittman on a cornerback 4 inches shorter than him, and he gets in the ball that's why you.
- [30:35]
Craig Horbeck
Don'T turn the lights on when you pee in the middle of the night. You got to just keep him off.
- [30:38]
Danny Heifetz
He sits down while he pees.
- [30:39]
Craig Horbeck
I do. In the middle of the night, you got to sit down and pee 100.
- [30:43]
Bill Simmons
I've heard you talk about this on the pod. Is this a bit or you actually do this?
- [30:47]
Craig Horbeck
Of course. You're standing in peeing at 2 in the morning. Is it. What's the German word? If we bring back the hottest take. I got a lot. I'm sitting on a lot.
- [30:55]
Danny Heifetz
The Germans.
- [30:55]
Danny Kelly
You're not just sitting the pee, you're sitting on a lot.
- [30:58]
Bill Simmons
Pea sitters. That should have been your fantasy team name. Sits Pinklers the My biggest surprise might be Craig's biggest pleasant surprise is that Aaron Rodgers is still good. I just, I completely wrote it off. It wasn't a bit. I just watched him last year and it was like, this guy doesn't have it.
- [31:14]
Danny Kelly
It's.
- [31:14]
Bill Simmons
He doesn't want to get hit anymore. This is a wrap. He just wants to get rid of the ball in two seconds. Even when they played the Patriots, I didn't didn't think he played that well. Like, I just thought he wanted to get rid of the ball. He could only make two throws. The way he played the last two weeks. Really looked like Rogers. Like, I don't really have an explanation for it now. You could pick the Steelers apart in all these different ways. Like they're one of those teams that their record could be a lot different with one or two plays. Like I still don't know how the Patriots didn't beat them.
- [31:41]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah, they're.
- [31:42]
Bill Simmons
Rogers looks good, though.
- [31:43]
Craig Horbeck
He looks great.
- [31:44]
Bill Simmons
You have to be delighted. You're a Steelers fan.
- [31:45]
Craig Horbeck
Incredibly delighted. Everyone's coming around. Like, I feel like we're, what are we, seven weeks in? And everyone's like, oh yeah, Rogers isn't washed. Like after all of the vitriol that came out of last year, it'll never work. He's terrible. He ruined all this stuff and now we're just seven weeks in and everyone's like, oh yeah. He's like one of the best five quarterbacks of all time.
- [32:01]
Danny Kelly
His arm is have to count him out and then he'll be good again.
- [32:05]
Craig Horbeck
His arm is still to me, like he can make throws that only a few quarterbacks can make in the NFL still right now.
- [32:10]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, the Hail Mary. I mean, throwing a ball 70 yards at 41. I mean, honestly, he's played well enough. That and it's what we always Joke about. But we're not joking where it's the year after. After the injury that was the big.
- [32:19]
Craig Horbeck
Thing we talked about in the offseason was like he. He was coming up.
- [32:23]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, yeah.
- [32:23]
Craig Horbeck
He's coming up with torn Achilles. He's 40 years old.
- [32:25]
Danny Kelly
It's bad for Tatum, I guess.
- [32:26]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah. I. Yeah. Everyone's like, oh, my God, he's on a basketball court five months after. I'm like, what do you think he's doing? It's been five months. Like Kim Acres played in the fucking Super Bowl.
- [32:35]
Bill Simmons
So Peterson's the only guy ever who came back under a year and still looked like himself. That I can think of.
- [32:40]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah. And that was acl.
- [32:41]
Danny Heifetz
Though I. I would not, for your emotional health, count on Jason Tatum returning to the club.
- [32:45]
Bill Simmons
I'm trying not to. I'll say Diggs. Diggs seems pretty close to where he was, but he's not playing. He's playing 30 snaps.
- [32:53]
Craig Horbeck
I mean, Rashee Rice looks good. Torres, was it LCL or ACL last year?
- [32:59]
Bill Simmons
Rogers things different because he's in his 40s and it was an. Brady was the only. There was. I saw on Social. There was some unbelievable stat. Brady has the second most. It's either rushing or receiving yards of anyone over 40. Yeah. Did you guys see that?
- [33:13]
Craig Horbeck
I think it's receiving yards.
- [33:16]
Bill Simmons
Tom Brady, number two receiver, 40.
- [33:19]
Danny Heifetz
You gotta throw a flak on Rogers. A pass just.
- [33:21]
Craig Horbeck
I think Rogers what's helping as well is that he's willing to play Arthur Smith's game. Like he's not just doing the. I'm going to sit in shotgun. I'm on the Jets. I brought in all. I brought in Alan Lazard and all my guys, and I'm just going to do that. He's actually like running play action. He's under center. He's like booting. He looks pretty mobile to me. And I just think we always underestimate what you can do the year after a terrible injury.
- [33:41]
Danny Heifetz
He looks like what the jets thought they were getting when they traded for him. And frankly, they got to be going.
- [33:46]
Bill Simmons
Nuts because Adams too. Adams has looked good on the Rams. They just had to be like. Had these guys and Fields, Darnold.
- [33:52]
Craig Horbeck
I mean, the Steelers got rid of Fields. People thought they should have brought Fields back. Fields is terrible and Rogers is.
- [33:57]
Bill Simmons
But you knew that that Sunday night game was the. That was the spotlight game for him where it's like this guy doesn't.
- [34:02]
Danny Heifetz
Rodgers vs. Green Bay this week. He's is going to be biblical. He's going to have Five touchdowns.
- [34:06]
Danny Kelly
But speaking of teams not knowing what they're doing or getting is like wasn't Rogers was not their first option. He was not their first choice.
- [34:12]
Danny Heifetz
No. They wanted Stafford. But if you think Rogers was mad to the jets in week one, like, what do you think? He had 10 days. He's had 10 days to prepare off.
- [34:20]
Bill Simmons
A loss for the so Baltimore is plus 135 on FanDuel for the AFC north and Pittsburgh's plus 130. They're basically even, which is remarkable.
- [34:30]
Craig Horbeck
4 and 2 versus 1 and 5.
- [34:32]
Danny Heifetz
One 1 and 5 team has ever won a division. It's happened one time ever.
- [34:35]
Bill Simmons
Technically 17. So the extra game, I think skews it a whiff. Right. But not like that much.
- [34:42]
Craig Horbeck
Steeler schedule gets super hard in the Bengals or in the Ravens schedule is pretty easy.
- [34:46]
Danny Heifetz
They also play each other twice, so.
- [34:48]
Bill Simmons
But the question for me is, can they go? Can the Ravens go 9 and 8?
- [34:51]
Craig Horbeck
I think so.
- [34:51]
Bill Simmons
Starting at 1 and 5, that's 8 and 3 the rest of the way. Which means then the Steelers, what are you? 4 and 2 or 5 and 1? 4 and 2, 4 and 2. So you would have to go 5 and 5.
- [35:01]
Craig Horbeck
Basically, the schedule gets tough. I do think it's going to come down to a Steelers Ravens game late in the year, in the winter.
- [35:06]
Bill Simmons
Well, you have it. It's week 18.
- [35:07]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [35:08]
Danny Kelly
That will be.
- [35:08]
Craig Horbeck
That game will matter.
- [35:09]
Bill Simmons
Goodell's like, let's rig that game so it means something. I don't know what voice that was.
- [35:16]
Craig Horbeck
That was.
- [35:16]
Bill Simmons
I was movie cat.
- [35:17]
Craig Horbeck
That was good.
- [35:17]
Danny Heifetz
I'll do it again. It was good.
- [35:18]
Bill Simmons
I could have tried not to.
- [35:20]
Craig Horbeck
Little Dr. Evil or. I don't know.
- [35:22]
Bill Simmons
Bengals plus 470. Harden your nipples at all, Danny?
- [35:25]
Danny Kelly
A little bit.
- [35:25]
Bill Simmons
It's cold in here.
- [35:26]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, a little bit. The Flacco thing.
- [35:28]
Bill Simmons
Flacco and the receivers.
- [35:29]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [35:30]
Bill Simmons
Kind of discount you Mobile Dak Prescott with his two guys. Basically the AFC version.
- [35:35]
Craig Horbeck
Pathetic Steelers defensive performance. Maybe the worst I've ever seen in my life.
- [35:39]
Bill Simmons
Well, so that's the case against the Steelers is your defense is not good. And I felt like against the Pats, we should have had 500 yards in that game. We just kept fumbling the ball.
- [35:49]
Craig Horbeck
If somebody told me that Week 7 of the NFL, Rodgers is like fourth in touchdown passes and the Steelers, the most expensive defense in the NFL gets shredded by Joe Flacco. Yeah, I'd say I was on Mars.
- [36:02]
Bill Simmons
Well, what were the odds Rogers was going to be starting for fantasy teams midway through the season? Because That's a thing that's happening now for sure.
- [36:10]
Danny Heifetz
Low Craig actually wanted us to rank them higher, and I personally vetoed it. And I was like, I absolutely refuse. I was like, there's absolutely no way we're ranking Rodgers as the top 25.
- [36:17]
Craig Horbeck
I just kept thinking back to, like, the Steelers are not going to be worse with Aaron Rodgers versus Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph.
- [36:22]
Danny Kelly
Like, we.
- [36:22]
Craig Horbeck
We were had a winning record with those guys.
- [36:24]
Danny Heifetz
Do you remember watching Rogers? You remember why we put up with him for the last, like, five years?
- [36:28]
Bill Simmons
I just can't with these old guys. I can't figure out how to gauge it anymore. And either prediction, either way, like, LeBron right now is sciatica, apparently. Like, yeah, he might just play 20 games this year and this is it. Like, he's like, LeBron's body broke down. He played 6,000 minutes. This is what happened. It's usually what should happen. You just don't know what year it's going to be. But it happened. I never thought it would happen to Jerry Rice, you guys. Were you old enough to remember Jerry?
- [36:52]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, a little bit. He was a Seahawks, like, best receiver.
- [36:55]
Bill Simmons
Still I've ever seen. Yeah, he had that. He had the little Raiders Seahawks era, but I just. It felt like as long as he was going to play, I was like, well, he's Jerry Rice. So figured. And then at some point he, you know, you hit late age and that it's over.
- [37:08]
Danny Kelly
Well, that's the reason they call it an age cliff. You know, it's like just all of a sudden you don't got it anymore.
- [37:13]
Danny Heifetz
And it is a cliff at receiver especially. There's a lot of data on this of like, you kind of keep going and then when you fall off, you don't get back. Like, you know, Mark Cooper just are like, deal. Like doa.
- [37:22]
Bill Simmons
So many of those.
- [37:23]
Craig Horbeck
Rice is the only one where there wasn't.
- [37:25]
Danny Heifetz
But that's the thing. The cliff was just at the end. The amazing thing is that with Rodgers, what we're seeing is like, there's one thing for Brady to reset the age curve. Derek Henry reset the age curve at running back, obviously. Tennis, Djokovic, all these. Every sport, like, you're having the age reset by someone. What's amazing about the Rogers thing is to tear your Achilles at 40 and then still. Or 39 and still get back. That is like, completely new. Like, to have a kind of injury.
- [37:47]
Bill Simmons
Rice had one of the worst injuries I've ever witnessed in a game on Monday Night Football. And Warren Sapp I always had the joke. It should have been like a 100 yard penalty. It just should have been automatic touchdown. It was like a reverse or something. And SAP did this clothesline where his. He almost like Exorcist headed him, and his knee just like blew out. And this was like Rice at the peak of his powers. And he came back from that and played.
- [38:09]
Craig Horbeck
Was that 97 something?
- [38:10]
Bill Simmons
It was 96. 97.
- [38:12]
Craig Horbeck
Jerry Rice was 35.
- [38:13]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [38:14]
Craig Horbeck
And then. And then five years later, had 1200.
- [38:16]
Danny Kelly
Yards at the midpoint of his career.
- [38:18]
Danny Heifetz
That's crazy. 1000 yards at 40 if a receiver.
- [38:21]
Craig Horbeck
Now it's like Keenan Allen's like 33 and we're like, I don't know. Eight years later, Jerry Rice was still putting up 900 yards in the season.
- [38:28]
Bill Simmons
He's a classic. You need better PR guy. Yeah, there's certainly. Yeah, it's just like when people talk about goats and different things. Like, to me, Rice is clearly. Rice and LT are just clearly head over heels above anyone else ever.
- [38:43]
Danny Heifetz
I feel like Rice has respect. The guy I always think about who doesn't have enough pr, I feel like, is Barry Bonds, where. I understand that there was a lot of controversy there, but Barry Bonds has no.
- [38:51]
Danny Kelly
Pretty dark.
- [38:51]
Danny Heifetz
He's like Avatar for movies, where it's like the biggest thing that ever happened, has no cultural imprint. No one ever talks about it or anything.
- [38:57]
Bill Simmons
He certainly, of all the baseball players from, like, the last 35 years, is like the first one that jumps into my head for seeing in person other than maybe Pedro and now. Now Shohei would be the third one. But these guys that you're just like, I remember going to see this person and sitting in the stands and watching how crazy they were. Is there a team? I don't think this question steps on the categories we're about to do. Is there a team that is highly ranked to win the Super Bowl? I'll give you the top seven odds. Kansas City, Detroit, Buffalo, Green Bay, Philly, Indianapolis, Rams, Denver and Baltimore, all the 20 to 100 teams. Is there a team? You're just like, I don't see it. I don't see them putting it together in the next 12 weeks, Danny.
- [39:43]
Danny Kelly
I mean, in that group, I probably would circle the Broncos.
- [39:47]
Bill Simmons
Because of Knicks.
- [39:48]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. I mean, after three quarters of just this last Sunday, we were like, broncos are on fraud watch. And then, of course, they went and scored 33 points. Sorry, but that was probably.
- [39:59]
Danny Heifetz
No, I forgot.
- [40:00]
Bill Simmons
So thanks.
- [40:00]
Danny Heifetz
I completely forgot about that.
- [40:01]
Bill Simmons
Sorry, Danny.
- [40:02]
Danny Kelly
So I would probably circle them.
- [40:04]
Bill Simmons
What do you have Craig.
- [40:05]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah, Broncos is a good one. I don't know. I've been a little bit unimpressed with the packers this year. I feel like the Micah Parsons trade, everybody said Packers, super bowl favorites, they start the year by beating the Lions. And then since then, I've been kind of unimpressed. I mean, they lost to the Browns, they tied the Cowboys. They barely beat Jacoby Brissette in the Cardinals. I don't know. I still think like the Jordan love. I don't know if I'm playing.
- [40:24]
Bill Simmons
That's my team too. It's. It's like, it's like watching an NBA team or like, I like those guys. I like this guy. I like that guy. Why aren't they winning? Why are they down 10?
- [40:31]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [40:32]
Danny Heifetz
The Ravens are top 10 in Super bowl odds and they're one in five. Yeah, if they were five and one with the injuries they had, that would make sense.
- [40:40]
Bill Simmons
Good answer. All right, we'll take a break and then we're gonna do. I don't even know what to title this gimmick. This episode is brought to you by the new CBS original series, Boston Blue. Fridays this fall on cbs. Donnie Wahlberg returns as detective Danny Reagan. And he's teaming up with Sonequa Martin Green to fight crime in Boston, where family loyalty and city pride meet high stakes drama. More importantly, they meet my dad. Cause this is already his favorite show. He hasn't even seen an episode yet. It's the next chapter in the world of blue bloods. My dad is ready for it. Familiar, but with a sharper, grittier edge. The new CBS original series, Boston Blue. New episodes Friday, 10, 9 Central on CBS and streaming on Paramount. This episode is brought to you by Viori. Look, I'm not a big let's hype up workout clothes guy, but Vuori, I gotta say, total game changer. Been wearing a lot. If you see me power walking around Los Angeles, probably going to see me wearing some Vuori Sunday performance joggers that they have. It's made with four way performance stretch fabric, one of the most comfortable things you own. You will wear them everywhere, I promise. All you have to do is go to Vuori.com Simmons and you get 20% off your first purchase with Vuori. V U O-R-I.com Simmons. Enjoy. Free shipping on all US orders over $75 plus free returns. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. All right, so we did the my guy draft before the season and that was basically snake fashion. We do a title or A thing and we try to draft one and we go in order. We're not going to do that this time. I sent you guys a bunch of categories. Most valuable player, coach of the year, offensive or defensive, rookie of the year, next coach, fired, breakout star, QB off season, hot seat guy. Can't wait for this one. Number one seed AFC or NFC team that will get the number one pick, fantasy MVP and fantasy murderer of the year. So after seven weeks, we are going to predict what the outcomes will be for those categories and the catch. So some, I mean, what are half of the podcasts now? Draft podcasts, except ours, funnily enough, we.
- [42:57]
Craig Horbeck
Don'T really draft that much on our show.
- [42:58]
Bill Simmons
So some of them where you have to match with the categories, like Big Picture does that we're going to try to match with the categories. And part of the art here is like, if there's a category you don't like, maybe you grab it right away because you're worried about the depth in the category. And then we'll see at the end of the year who won. It's probably the easiest just to have high fits. Go first and go this way I.
- [43:20]
Danny Heifetz
Get to plus heifets.
- [43:22]
Bill Simmons
Well, who you decide? Craig, who had a harder loss between Kelly and Heifetz here on Sunday or Monday? What was more devastating?
- [43:30]
Craig Horbeck
Well, this is funny because we were talking about context with context. DK because the Mariners could have made their first World Series ever without context. It's high fits because if that game were in the playoffs, I think it'd be the worst collapse in sports history. But because it was like a random Week 7 game and the Giants suck at the end of the day, I've.
- [43:44]
Bill Simmons
Had Giants fans who were like, I know we're not going to make the playoffs, but that was one of the worst losses I've ever had.
- [43:51]
Danny Heifetz
I didn't know I could feel that bad about a team that's not going to make the playoffs. Like, I didn't, I, I, I feel like I've been so guarded in my heart for the last, like eight years, nine years, really, for the Giants. I feel like the Eagles game, they won and I was like, man, I'm in on this team.
- [44:04]
Craig Horbeck
I love them.
- [44:04]
Danny Heifetz
I'm letting him. I'm gonna go all. I'm, I'm letting my the Giants are.
- [44:07]
Craig Horbeck
Better than the Eagles.
- [44:08]
Danny Heifetz
I'm being vulnerable again.
- [44:09]
Craig Horbeck
And then they did that, called me drunk at midnight on the aft on Thursday after that Giants eat Eagles game. He's like, craig, the Giants are better than the Eagles. And I was like, I think you might be right.
- [44:18]
Danny Heifetz
I was drunk and I wanted to do a topper. I wanted to record the show and I was like, watched it at a bar and I was like, let's do the show. They were like, no.
- [44:25]
Bill Simmons
Did you think you're going to the playoffs after that game?
- [44:27]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, of course. When I get Super Bowl, I got Charlie. I have, I bet in February the 500 to 1 I have the fandom win the Super Bowl. I bet I, I wow 500 times. Well, I thought they might get Stafford and I was like, that's. If they get Stafford that I, that will be an amazing ticket. But I just, I got Charlie Brown, man. I. The moment that I was like, oh, I'm in on this team, they had a 1 in 1600 collapse.
- [44:50]
Bill Simmons
So is that worse than what happened to Danny where He was up 31 in the seventh inning with a chance to play the Dodgers?
- [44:55]
Danny Heifetz
Probably not.
- [44:56]
Craig Horbeck
Probably not. But it is easier if we just start with.
- [44:59]
Bill Simmons
You go first.
- [45:00]
Danny Heifetz
So I get to go from any of these categories?
- [45:02]
Bill Simmons
Any category. You grab a guy and once you pick the guy or the team board, you're done with that category and we can't touch that person.
- [45:11]
Danny Heifetz
So there is like one category in this entire list that I think there is just an objectively correct answer.
- [45:18]
Bill Simmons
Okay. And it is.
- [45:19]
Danny Heifetz
The next coach fired will be Mike McDaniel for the damn, damn, damn, damn, damn.
- [45:23]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, there's not really a good number two on that one.
- [45:25]
Bill Simmons
No, the only zag for that is if. Well, first of all, it seems like he's trying to get fired with the glasses he wore and the weird press conference he gave and just whatever the kind of sort of blaming the players.
- [45:37]
Danny Kelly
Yep.
- [45:38]
Bill Simmons
I don't know if we executed because we didn't really play football today or whatever he said. The only thing I can think of is if they're trying to tank and you're putting him in almost as the mole to ruin the team. That's a great first pick. I think he's got to be the heavy favorite. Craig, you're up, man.
- [45:59]
Craig Horbeck
Okay, I'm just going to. I'm going to go chalk here. I'm going mvp. Mahomes.
- [46:05]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [46:07]
Craig Horbeck
I think Mahomes is playing the best season he's had since 2022. Looks like the old Chiefs are back. The last three years of the boring, ugly Chiefs offense is completely gone. Mahomes is playing incredibly. All the receivers are back. The offense looks fantastic. I think he's going to win mvp.
- [46:23]
Bill Simmons
I thought heading into the season Josh Allen was the best QB in the league. I'm still not going to jump off that. But Mahomes has the most fantasy points, which I think is interesting. I will say with the Mahomes back it just kind of has to be casually mentioned. They were about to beat the Jaguars and then he threw a 99 yard pick on a pass that like most terrible quarterbacks in the league would throw. So it's just that caveat. He did cost them a game with a terrible thing. But I think he has the best odds on FanDuel and I think that's in that game.
- [46:50]
Craig Horbeck
I think he was throwing to like Tyquan Thornton and Xavier Worthy on one leg.
- [46:53]
Bill Simmons
But yeah, yeah he's at least they've branched out and then he's still. His deep ball stuff is still pretty erratic but for the most part he looks way more like Mahomes from three years ago standing up.
- [47:04]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, just the vibes. I'm going to go also chalk here Shane Steichen, coach of the year.
- [47:09]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Feels like the runaway would be the first three picks.
- [47:12]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, I mean I'm going back and trying to remember what we were thinking at the beginning of the year. I remember laughing. I specifically laughed at the Colts for choosing Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson. Just because the fact is they drafted this guy, I think it was number four overall a couple of years ago with the knowledge in that they are going to have to give this guy some time and they just gave up with gave up on him like so quickly For a guy like Daniel Jones who I just had zero confidence in and the fact that he not only made that really tough decision to go to Daniel Jones face the IR from the media, but now he's turned this into legitimately one of the best offense like through seven weeks, one of the best offenses we've ever seen. If you just look at the stats like through seven weeks of a season they're up there with like the 07 Patriots, the 2013 Broncos in terms of scoring points per drive yards, what's the.
- [48:02]
Craig Horbeck
Worst record they could have where he still wins coach of the year? They go 10 and 7. Can he win?
- [48:06]
Bill Simmons
I think Vrabel would be the big competitor, right?
- [48:09]
Danny Kelly
Yes.
- [48:09]
Bill Simmons
So it's like basically whoever has a better record between those teams probably wins it. Unless there's somebody we're not thinking of.
- [48:14]
Craig Horbeck
Well, if the Bills win the division but the pats still win 11, 12.
- [48:19]
Bill Simmons
Games, can variable wins win the division? They're going to have to go through Foxborough to do it. Motherfuckers come our way, come take it. That's the right pick. I think he's done a great job. I also like when a coach makes an emphatic before the season decision that's kind of like, if this doesn't work out, I'm getting fired anyway. Fuck it. But in this case, it actually worked out. I thought this had to be one of the first four picks. We have a breakout star category and there's some good choices, but I just think it has to be Drake May because first of all, very vindicating to the Pats fans. I've talked about him a bunch of my podcasts. He kind of sucked in week one against the Raiders and was probably the main reason they lost the game. He just wasn't good. He was throwing sailing balls and just. And then he's just gotten better every week and it hasn't been all cream puffs. Cause they won in Buffalo and he was great in that game. But really looks like this. He's in like that Elway area. For the athleticism combined with the arm strength and the way he throws, I don't think anybody's throwing a better deep ball than him this year.
- [49:25]
Craig Horbeck
I'm in shock by his deep ball.
- [49:27]
Bill Simmons
I can't believe how well he moves around the pocket and some of these. There was like a three minute super mix of all his plays this year. And you're just watching him, he looks like a Jedi. It just looks like he's year five. He's. I think he's 22. It's ridiculous how good he's been and I think it's sustainable. I don't feel like there's anything fluky about it.
- [49:45]
Danny Kelly
Totally.
- [49:46]
Danny Heifetz
He kills you from the pocket. He kills you when he scrambles. He can kill you with the deep ball. He kills you in the clutch. Like when they actually need to score at the end of games. He can kill you off platform. It's not like a Jalen Hurts or Bo Nix where if he's not really set the right way, he can't make a throw. He can make any throw and obviously he can run. But also the little stuff too. When he was at this week, I think he broke the record for completion percentage by Patriots quarterback. And he broke Brady's record for completion percentage. And they were like, what do you think of that? And they obviously wanted him to do something, but oh, Brady, it's an honor. He didn't do that at all. He was like, honestly, I scrambled a couple times when I should have ran. So I ran when I should have thrown. And I actually missed some reads and I didn't know what to do, so I ran. So actually I left some plays on the field, and I'm like, that's the right answer. So he's the whole package. And while we're here, can you stop complaining about the Joe Milton thing where, like, you're upset you got cost Abdul Carter or whatever? Because Joe Milton. Because I just see Drake May, and I'm mad that Tommy DeVito was a meme for the Giants, and he calls the Giants, Jaden Daniels and Drake May, so that is a lot worse than the Joe.
- [50:38]
Bill Simmons
Is Abdul Carda playing this year?
- [50:40]
Danny Heifetz
He just got concussed.
- [50:41]
Bill Simmons
Cause I. What does he have, like a half a sack? One sack?
- [50:44]
Danny Heifetz
He's doing fine. But I mean, Brian does.
- [50:46]
Bill Simmons
No, I like Abdul Carter. I was making a joke. No, it seemed like a catastrophe not to get him or her. Him or Hunter basically was like, words. First these next two guys, and then it's like, Will Campbell, Tyler Warren, Mason Graham, and then you would redo the draft. Like, Will Campbell's been really good. I think Mason Graham's a monster.
- [51:08]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, he's been good.
- [51:09]
Bill Simmons
And then Tyler Warren. I'm sure he's going to come up at some point. But it did work out for the Pats.
- [51:14]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [51:14]
Bill Simmons
You know what didn't work out is the Travion Henderson pick.
- [51:18]
Craig Horbeck
He's coming up.
- [51:19]
Danny Kelly
We'll talk about him as well.
- [51:21]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [51:21]
Danny Heifetz
He's on the list.
- [51:22]
Craig Horbeck
He's on one. He's in one of these categories. Snaking. How are we doing this? Are we going back to Heifetz? Are we going back to Deep?
- [51:30]
Bill Simmons
What's the protocol?
- [51:31]
Danny Heifetz
Oh, I think I should pick next.
- [51:32]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think we go opposite what Heifitz thinks.
- [51:36]
Bill Simmons
So, Snake.
- [51:37]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [51:38]
Bill Simmons
Oh, man. I'm up again.
- [51:41]
Danny Kelly
Wow.
- [51:41]
Bill Simmons
So I have my breakout guy.
- [51:43]
Danny Kelly
Oh, you know, all the favorites are gone now. I feel like now these are a little tougher.
- [51:47]
Bill Simmons
So there's a category we have. Pick a one seed in the AFC or nfc, and I'm going to take Indianapolis one seed in AFC as a one seed because I don't like the other choices. And they won me over in that Chargers game. I don't love their defense. I think you can throw on them, but offensively, they're just absolutely outrageous. I can't believe. It's weird how efficient it is and how many weapons they have and how easy it is. There's been very few teams over the years where it just seems like it's Just easy for them to get 8 yards anytime they want. And they have so many options. And the Warren thing has been like, that's the fact that the Bears passed them up. I'll never understand that. That should be like a 5,000 word feature from somebody. Like, how did you. How did this happen? How did everyone think Tyler Warren was the best tight end for 11 months and then somebody was like, actually Zach and actually zagged with the 10th pick.
- [52:48]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [52:49]
Bill Simmons
But the way they use him, he's like a combination of 11 tight ends I've loved in my life.
- [52:53]
Craig Horbeck
I think the draft process is too long because by the time the draft comes, people talk themselves out of all of the right takes. Like, if the draft was just like February 20th.
- [53:02]
Danny Heifetz
Right.
- [53:02]
Craig Horbeck
I feel like we'd be way more accurate with all of our predictions.
- [53:04]
Bill Simmons
I think it's a really good idea.
- [53:05]
Craig Horbeck
You know what I mean? It's just so much more fresh. It's like, oh, I watched Abuka, he's good. Just draft him. But everyone's like, well, the measurables. He's never been the best receiver on his.
- [53:14]
Bill Simmons
Will Campbell, his arms are a half inch too short. He's ready to fall out of the top.
- [53:19]
Danny Heifetz
Did you ever notice that watching the games? No.
- [53:22]
Bill Simmons
When he was in the sec. Looking great. All right, Dan, you're up.
- [53:25]
Danny Kelly
This is tough. Let's see here.
- [53:27]
Bill Simmons
It gets hard right around now.
- [53:29]
Danny Kelly
I am going to go with. I think I'm going to go fantasy mvp.
- [53:35]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [53:36]
Danny Kelly
And I'm going to take Jonathan Taylor. Speaking of the Colts, he was the running back nine in average draft position before the year, 18th overall. So you could have gotten him in the second round quite easily. We didn't really. We didn't know what to make of.
- [53:50]
Craig Horbeck
Him because nobody did.
- [53:51]
Danny Kelly
No one really knew what to make of the Colts offense in general because, number one, we didn't really know who the quarterback was going to be for most of the preseason. Yeah. And so we were just. Everybody on that team got pushed down.
- [53:59]
Craig Horbeck
You could have probably drafted 10 teams. Everyone's like, oh, you got to find the breakout team. Right. That's the way to win in fantasy football.
- [54:05]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [54:05]
Craig Horbeck
You know, it was like, oh, finding the Bengals from two years ago. We're finding. And it was like, who's going to be finding the Texans that first year with Stroud? I think you could have probably drafted 10 teams before you picked the Colts this year.
- [54:15]
Danny Kelly
Yes.
- [54:16]
Craig Horbeck
It was the Bears, it was the Jags. It was. There were so many teams, nobody thought it was going to be the best.
- [54:20]
Danny Kelly
I mean Steichen was kind of on.
- [54:22]
Craig Horbeck
The hot seat for sure, 100%. Nobody thought he was a great coach.
- [54:26]
Bill Simmons
Really strange pro football reference page for Taylor. Yeah, like his first year he ran for 1169, 11 TDs. Then his next year was his great 18, 11, 18 TDs. Then it got hurt. 11 games in 22, 23 was maybe a holdout, only played seven.
- [54:44]
Danny Heifetz
That was when the Jim Ursay was going to give the money to a whale.
- [54:47]
Danny Kelly
I'm sorry.
- [54:49]
Danny Heifetz
And then the whale died. So Jonathan Taylor got paid then last.
- [54:51]
Bill Simmons
Year just good enough. Jonathan Taylor killed the whale last year. 1431 and 11 TDs. And yet I don't think he was mentioned as a top three running back. There was always like this, eh. I don't know.
- [55:03]
Danny Kelly
Well, part of the reason is he doesn't catch passes like the other guys. And so some of these like, you know, league winning type running backs, Christian McCaffrey, Dawn A. Chan, forget the couple other guys that are really involved in the passing game, those guys just get pushed higher because it's like just more ways you can win. But Jonathan Taylor, he's just so head and shoulders above everyone and running this year. He's done three games with three touchdowns. He has three games with 30 plus points. He leads all skill players in points per game and that's not even catching a ton of passes. So he's.
- [55:33]
Bill Simmons
So he's going first if you're redoing a fantasy draft right now.
- [55:37]
Danny Heifetz
Oh yeah, probably. I also do think part of the reason he's not that famous is if Jonathan Taylor was named Saquon Barkley and played on a New York team and Saquon Barkley was named Jonathan Taylor and played for the Indianapolis.
- [55:47]
Craig Horbeck
He's on a shitty Colts team his.
- [55:48]
Danny Heifetz
Whole career and his name and he's just a boring name. Boring names matter.
- [55:51]
Craig Horbeck
He's having the third best fantasy running back season in the last 15 years.
- [55:56]
Bill Simmons
When you're on pace, 20 rush TDs. Yeah, and he might get more than that.
- [55:59]
Danny Heifetz
A guy.
- [56:00]
Bill Simmons
What's the record? Saquon has it, right?
- [56:01]
Danny Heifetz
28. No, the total or Tomlinson has both. Tomlinson.
- [56:05]
Bill Simmons
What's the just rush TD record?
- [56:07]
Craig Horbeck
Sean Alexander.
- [56:09]
Danny Heifetz
No, It's Ladanian Thomas, 28. And on the season he had 31. That was 2006, but I think he's.
- [56:14]
Bill Simmons
Gonna have a game where he has like five.
- [56:15]
Danny Heifetz
But no one's had 20 rushing touchdowns since 2006. Tomlinson set the record on both and then no one's had 20 since then nevermind.
- [56:21]
Danny Kelly
28.
- [56:22]
Bill Simmons
Kind of a running back resurgence this year because Bijan and McCaffrey, they kind of built the whole game around that. And then, you know, I think Gibbs has been electric this year. He's been really fantasy.
- [56:33]
Craig Horbeck
And the receivers are so deep. It's like, it's kind of going back to old school where it's like, you should just take a running back in the first round, get a good quarterback, and then figure it out later.
- [56:40]
Bill Simmons
And finishing last, Trevean Henderson.
- [56:43]
Craig Horbeck
That leads me to my next category. Fantasy murderer of the year. I will be drafting Trevian Henderson.
- [56:48]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I can't argue with it.
- [56:49]
Craig Horbeck
Who's.
- [56:50]
Bill Simmons
I paid $30 for him.
- [56:51]
Craig Horbeck
An unmitigated disaster. I mean, this guy was going like top 40 in drafts.
- [56:57]
Bill Simmons
I'm in multiple conversations with Pat's fans trying to piece together.
- [57:01]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, what happened.
- [57:02]
Craig Horbeck
What do you have? Do you have inside info? What's going on?
- [57:04]
Bill Simmons
Preseason game.
- [57:05]
Danny Kelly
First touch of his career.
- [57:06]
Bill Simmons
First touch. He broke a kick return and then had all these electric plays. Anytime they put him in, he decked a dude and basically knocked a guy out. Um, and then the season started and we were. I was on one thread. We were trying to remember one good play he's had all year and we couldn't remember a good play. He just kind of runs into the line and falls down. So now we're like, is he hurt? Did he like lose his confidence? Is he going through something?
- [57:31]
Craig Horbeck
I just.
- [57:31]
Bill Simmons
He got passed by the number three guy.
- [57:33]
Danny Kelly
Who?
- [57:33]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah, Terrell Jennings.
- [57:35]
Bill Simmons
Terrell Jennings. I didn't even know he was on the team.
- [57:37]
Craig Horbeck
Undrafted free agent.
- [57:37]
Danny Kelly
Never heard of this guy.
- [57:38]
Craig Horbeck
I've been starting Treveon Henderson every week. I have him knee shot.
- [57:41]
Bill Simmons
No, he's a cut. He's absolute hassle. Cannot be on a fantasy team anymore.
- [57:44]
Craig Horbeck
I'm terrified that the second I drop him, someone's gonna add him and then Vrabel's gonna start mixing him in and he'll be good.
- [57:49]
Danny Heifetz
Fear is the mind killer.
- [57:50]
Bill Simmons
The only. So my dad came up with this as we all were trying to figure out, like maybe they're saving him for the second half of the season because he's little. That's the best I got.
- [57:59]
Danny Heifetz
Him being little.
- [58:00]
Bill Simmons
The best excuse I have.
- [58:01]
Danny Heifetz
I think him being little is related. I think him being little is related. I think Va able likes to.
- [58:04]
Craig Horbeck
They don't throw to him. Why? Why aren't they throwing screens to him? He's fast.
- [58:08]
Danny Kelly
Drake May's too busy throwing 20 yard touchdowns.
- [58:11]
Danny Heifetz
He's listed at 202, when small people are listed at 202, it's like 6ft tall. It's like he's probably plays at 190 something and Vrabel just thinks he's small. Ramondre's big.
- [58:18]
Craig Horbeck
Why'd they draft him?
- [58:19]
Danny Heifetz
It's.
- [58:20]
Bill Simmons
It's my worst comedy year.
- [58:21]
Craig Horbeck
I was late when they drafted him.
- [58:22]
Bill Simmons
I was, I was like bragging about how Cleveland took Judkins over him. Judkins is now. It's like eight weeks later. It's like, oh, my God, I wish we had Judkins.
- [58:30]
Danny Heifetz
I'd like to go on record this season. He will suck. Henderson will be fine. Long term.
- [58:34]
Bill Simmons
He'll be Kevin Falk eventually. For us, it seemed the preseason, it really seemed like this was Jameer Gibbs.
- [58:39]
Craig Horbeck
I'm not cutting him. I refuse.
- [58:40]
Danny Heifetz
Used to be super for running backs not taken in the first round to need a full year to acclimate to the NFL. It's normal.
- [58:46]
Danny Kelly
Also, the reason one of the big talking points around him coming into the league was he doesn't fumble. And he's really good in pass pro.
- [58:54]
Bill Simmons
And he's been terrible in pass pro.
- [58:55]
Danny Kelly
He's missed like huge plays in pass pro. And the fumbling thing apparently does not matter to variable because, you know, Ramondre Stevenson is leading the NFL in fumbles and he doesn't care.
- [59:05]
Bill Simmons
High Fitz Europe.
- [59:08]
Danny Heifetz
I am. I will take if. Well, speaking of the Patriots, this one, I'm surprised this one fell to me in terms of scarcity here. I'm going to coach of the year, Mike Vrabel. Yeah, I should be surprised that that fell to me. I mean, this is really simple. Like the Patriots, what do you guys. Five and two.
- [59:22]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [59:22]
Danny Heifetz
And coach of the year. I mean, if. I mean, you guys win the division. Coach of the year, you guys have the easiest remaining schedule. So not only are you five and two now, but the Patriots are the easiest remaining schedule. So if The Patriots win 11, 12 games, you have the tiebreaker against the Bills. Yep.
- [59:37]
Bill Simmons
Already I'm kind of like he' to one on FanDuel.
- [59:39]
Danny Heifetz
And that's the. You're talking about when you mentioned Steichen. What happens? How does Steichen lose? Well, The Colts are 6 and 1, so what record do they need to finish? But if they finish the stretch with like three or four losses down the stretch, that's the part that weighs heavier in people's minds. The beginning fades. The Patriots. I hate to say it, and I hate the Patriots. And this is not me sucking up. I actually, as you know, I really, really hate the Patriots.
- [60:01]
Bill Simmons
I hate the Giants as well. And we're celebrating when you lost.
- [60:04]
Danny Heifetz
The best moment of me working at this company, bar none, was you talking about how much pain core week's just getting started, five days left. How much pain the second Giant super bowl caused you. And you didn't know. I was like in the room and you thought it was just like Mallory and Sean. And you were like, we lived just five, Karen.
- [60:21]
Bill Simmons
So we were listening.
- [60:22]
Danny Heifetz
I was just like an intern listening. And I was. And you just were like. When you turned around, you're like, oh, shit. Hyphens heard all that.
- [60:27]
Bill Simmons
And it was the best thing stroking a cat.
- [60:29]
Craig Horbeck
I was going to say stroking something else.
- [60:32]
Danny Heifetz
But having said that. So with that said, I kind of think the patriots could win 12 or 13 games because I think Vrabel's such a good coach and May is playing so well. The coach and or quarterback advantage they have in so many of these remaining games.
- [60:44]
Craig Horbeck
Now you are sucking up. Now you are sucking up.
- [60:45]
Bill Simmons
No, he's right. Our schedule is just. It's almost seems like a rounding error accident. You just can't believe there's no hard teams. It's like at Tampa, I think is one of the hard ones. They play Buffalo in New England and then maybe there's an at Baltimore. Baltimore. There's basically three playoff teams left on the schedule.
- [61:03]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [61:04]
Bill Simmons
Right now on FanDuel, they're plus 175 to win 12 plus games, which they're 5 and 2 now. So that's 7 and 3. And they're going to be favored. And I think every game except maybe two.
- [61:16]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [61:17]
Bill Simmons
So I think it's the right pick. I think it's stake intervable for the stake and her variable for the coach of the air. What do you have, Craig?
- [61:25]
Craig Horbeck
No, Heifet gets another one, right?
- [61:26]
Danny Heifetz
Oh, yeah.
- [61:27]
Craig Horbeck
Oh, wow.
- [61:28]
Danny Heifetz
I do. Good point, Craig.
- [61:29]
Danny Kelly
You don't have to point that out.
- [61:30]
Danny Heifetz
Teacher point Craig in that note on that. Similarly, I will take for mvp. It's tough. Craig took Mahomes, which was smart.
- [61:41]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [61:44]
Danny Heifetz
There's not a lot of awesome options left. But for that reason, I'm going to take Matt Stafford for the Rams.
- [61:49]
Craig Horbeck
Interesting.
- [61:49]
Danny Heifetz
For a very simple reason.
- [61:52]
Craig Horbeck
Bad pick.
- [61:52]
Danny Heifetz
You have to win 12 games to win the MVP. There has been in the last 20 years one MVP quarterback has not won 12 games.
- [62:01]
Bill Simmons
Can't win.
- [62:02]
Danny Heifetz
Yes.
- [62:02]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [62:03]
Danny Heifetz
And you like, oh, you won nine games in 10 games and threw for a lot of yards. Like it does not happen. And even the quarterbacks who did win 12 games and win MVP. They all got a first round bye when they were a two by era like you cut now in the 17 game season, you kind of need 13 wins. So I'm looking around like Josh Allen for the Bills has better odds than Stafford. The Bills are way too injured, I think, to win 13 games. But I look at the Rams and The Rams are 5 and 2. Stafford is 17 touchdowns and two interceptions and he's playing so well. And the Rams are another team where I'm like, if The Rams win 13 games and Stafford is 35 touchdowns.
- [62:36]
Danny Kelly
It'S smart.
- [62:37]
Bill Simmons
I like it.
- [62:37]
Craig Horbeck
I can't tell. I think the guy I'm about to take applies to multiple categories. Yeah, I'm going to go Fantasy mvp. Jackson, Smith and Jigba, who is the wide receiver one in fantasy.
- [62:48]
Danny Kelly
How dare you.
- [62:49]
Craig Horbeck
And has immediately become. He's on pace for 1,989 yards this year. And so more.
- [62:57]
Danny Kelly
More. Just almost 2,000.
- [62:59]
Craig Horbeck
Almost 2,000. And he's just like, I don't know, the fifth best receiver in the league now and he's only going up.
- [63:04]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, he's always open.
- [63:05]
Danny Kelly
I was going to have him as one of the breakout players too.
- [63:08]
Craig Horbeck
Maybe I was going to as well, but break. There's been a lot of breakouts this year. I feel like fantasy mvp.
- [63:13]
Danny Kelly
I'm with you.
- [63:13]
Craig Horbeck
So in terms of where he was drafted and how you feel about him now, he's like the most untradable player in the league.
- [63:18]
Danny Kelly
He was drafted as a wide receiver 14. Yeah. And he is number one receiver in terms of total points this year. He's on pace, like you said, for almost 2,000 yards. No signs of slowing down. He's number one overall in target rate. He's the Seahawks offense, their passing offense.
- [63:35]
Craig Horbeck
He's been their leading receiver in all seven games.
- [63:36]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. And I would say just.
- [63:38]
Bill Simmons
And he's a peaceful man. When it seemed like there might be an altercation yesterday, sat on the bench and held the table.
- [63:44]
Danny Heifetz
The reflection, like that meme of the guy taking all the arrows for everybody.
- [63:48]
Bill Simmons
Like peaceful dude.
- [63:50]
Danny Kelly
He just moves differently. That's like the thing that always comes to mind when I watch him play. I'm just like, he has incredible body control, incredible acceleration, great hands, tracks the ball expertly. Like just all the superlatives you could. You could throw out. He's just really, really good natural receiver.
- [64:07]
Craig Horbeck
He's a great roster fit for the squad I'm building today.
- [64:10]
Bill Simmons
There's, there's just some guys are just open.
- [64:13]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
- [64:14]
Bill Simmons
And that's it. And that's why, you know, my Travan Henderson thing will probably live on video wise and infamy before the year. Comparing him to Jameer Gibbs. But you know what won't live on is me talking about how awesome JSN was to Danny Kelly in this at the same time this was. Yeah.
- [64:30]
Craig Horbeck
How you picked he was your guy.
- [64:32]
Bill Simmons
This year and how there was a four game stretch last year when he was open for four straight games and then the offensive line fell apart. That video won't live on because that's how social media works, Danny. It's a cruel beast.
- [64:44]
Danny Kelly
They like it when you're wrong.
- [64:45]
Bill Simmons
It's only the losers that live on. What do you have, Danny Kelly?
- [64:49]
Danny Kelly
Let's see here.
- [64:50]
Craig Horbeck
We should start a Twitter account called Great TakesExposed.
- [64:53]
Danny Heifetz
Oh, wow, that's good.
- [64:54]
Bill Simmons
How about the good takes?
- [64:55]
Craig Horbeck
Just some positivity. Yeah, I was right. Rogers is decent.
- [65:01]
Danny Kelly
Rogers is decent.
- [65:02]
Craig Horbeck
What a good.
- [65:03]
Bill Simmons
What a take you were. You did plant your flag on. I think we're fine island with a Rogers. Yeah, it was good.
- [65:10]
Danny Kelly
So I don't know if this is too obvious to even count, but the QB off season hot seat guy, Tua.
- [65:18]
Danny Heifetz
I really regret not grabbing that when I just went. That was. I didn't really. I forgot I was going.
- [65:21]
Bill Simmons
Snake crush. Can we talk this out?
- [65:23]
Craig Horbeck
I couldn't stomach the idea of seeing Tua on a roster of mine in any fashion.
- [65:27]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I guess he.
- [65:28]
Danny Kelly
We're not building fantasy teams here. We're trying be right.
- [65:31]
Bill Simmons
No, that's a. That's the right pick because I wrote.
- [65:34]
Danny Kelly
Duh next to that.
- [65:36]
Craig Horbeck
Look, I have two. Two obvious.
- [65:38]
Danny Heifetz
Too obvious.
- [65:41]
Bill Simmons
Well, he's got. He's what, 50 million bucks on the books for 26.
- [65:44]
Craig Horbeck
That's the only problem is they're going to have to eat a ridiculous amount.
- [65:47]
Danny Heifetz
Of money to get rid of him. But then eventually they will. I mean, he's. The truth is he will have that one season as the patsy and then he's a. To his. A backup quarterback. That is what he will be.
- [65:57]
Bill Simmons
That video of the Browns guy saying, throw it to me, Tua. Throw it to me, Tua. The Browns safety, it's before the snap. He's like, throw it to me, Tua. Throw it to me, Tua. And then Tua throws it to him. Oh, no, he's running and he's got Tua.
- [66:13]
Danny Heifetz
And then he like gets up and running with the ball and I thought he was gonna freak out and he's just. He just repeats it like he did before the play. Throw it to me, Tua. Throw it to me.
- [66:19]
Bill Simmons
Like, I was unbelievable. How could you come back from a quarterback with that after that happens? That's like, you have to leave the team at that point.
- [66:26]
Danny Heifetz
You know, I almost wish, too, I'd gone to the press conference after and be like, you know, starts with the leadership guys, late to players, all the meetings. Yeah, I just, you know, just keep saying it every week.
- [66:39]
Danny Kelly
I think they have, like, if they cut him post June 1st, they have like a $67 million dead hit, so they're just going to have to eat that.
- [66:47]
Bill Simmons
What's funny is throw it. Throw it to me blank is something that I say when I'm watching the games, when it's a bad QB and you have the other team and, like, from a betting standpoint, and I think I was saying it at the same time as this guy, it might not have been the same scenario, but when Tu was in his own end zone, basically, and he threw that pick to Cleveland in the 10, like, when he went back to Bass, it was like, throw it to me, Tua.
- [67:09]
Danny Kelly
Throw it.
- [67:09]
Bill Simmons
Like, he's just. I think he's the throw it to me All Stars.
- [67:12]
Danny Heifetz
It's an incantation. It's like what Van did this week or whatever the hell he was doing with trying to jinx LSU or whatever. Like, I think maybe. I think that has the same vibe.
- [67:18]
Bill Simmons
Well, the Manning.
- [67:20]
Danny Heifetz
Arch.
- [67:20]
Bill Simmons
Manning is another throw it to me guy, man. Throw it to me, Arch. Come on.
- [67:25]
Danny Kelly
All right.
- [67:26]
Craig Horbeck
I am two to you, Bill.
- [67:28]
Danny Kelly
Two of to you.
- [67:29]
Bill Simmons
I have to grab a hot seat, guy. And there's only two left for the QBs that I really focused on. I wish I could take them both.
- [67:39]
Danny Kelly
You can't.
- [67:40]
Craig Horbeck
Oh, I guess you can.
- [67:42]
Bill Simmons
I'm going to take Trevor Lawrence here. It's just great value. Yeah, I. I just can't believe some of the. Some of the games he's had. And then the. I used to have a joke about the Portland Trail boys, their soccer moms, when I was writing way back when about how protective they were of their own players. And I think the Jaguars fan base is like this with Trevor Lawrence. It's everyone else's fault. It's Brian Thomas Jr. Cause they can't catch. He won't catch balls over the middle and they're calling the wrong plays and the offensive line isn't good enough. And meanwhile, this dude just sails balls over people's heads and makes terrible decisions and runs around aimlessly, runs past the.
- [68:21]
Danny Kelly
Line of scrimmage and then chucks a ball.
- [68:23]
Bill Simmons
And if they had lost that Chiefs game, which they should have, like this season would already be a wrap for them. But unfortunately it's not.
- [68:30]
Danny Heifetz
Anyway, you know the, remember the Lombardi rule of just like every NFL quarterback has to throw through the door and then the good ones can hit the doorknob and the, you know, the elite ones can hit the keyhole.
- [68:39]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [68:39]
Danny Heifetz
Trevor Lawrence, every quarter misses the door and breaks the window.
- [68:44]
Bill Simmons
Yes.
- [68:44]
Craig Horbeck
It's kind of that simple. He just like, is not accurate and, and his receivers can't catch. So it's just like a double whammy. He's inaccurate and his receivers can't catch.
- [68:52]
Danny Heifetz
But he is accurate.
- [68:53]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I would have paid I don't know how much for video. The rest of the Jaguars team watching that commercial with him and Travis Hunter for Adidas. The Footlows parody. What was that? How did nobody stop that? What is that commercial? And then it runs all the time and you're like, how did nobody in either of these guys life just throw their bodies in front of this? Like, have you even seen Footloose?
- [69:17]
Craig Horbeck
I think a long time ago, but.
- [69:18]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, that is a deep cut. That's a movie that came out in 1984. It's like, let's parody Footloose.
- [69:24]
Craig Horbeck
There needs to be some rule. Like, you need to be an All Pro before you can be in a commercial. They're shoving too many guys in commercials.
- [69:29]
Bill Simmons
Travis Hunter being a commercial, he's in multiple commercials. We'll take a break. We'll finish the dress.
- [69:34]
Craig Horbeck
Remember, Baker was in the commercials.
- [69:36]
Danny Heifetz
Progressive a lot.
- [69:37]
Bill Simmons
This episode is brought to you by SAP. You know that feeling when running a business gets too demanding? The pressure to make everything happen all at once is immense. Like it's 4th and 1 and you just need that last yard to seal the win. Stop stressing so much. With the AI powered capabilities of SAP, you can streamline costs, connect with new suppliers, and manage payroll, even when your business is being pulled in different directions to deliver a quality product at a fair price while paying your people what they're worth so your business can stay unfazed. Learn more@SAP.com Uncertainty this episode is brought to you by Prime Video. Thursday Night Football is on, and it's only on Prime Video. This week, the Minnesota Vikings head west to face the Los Angeles Chargers. Holy mackerel, that's a good matchup. I think both of these teams are good. Could be a little Herbert MVP stuff going as well. Coverage begins at 7pm Eastern with football's best party. TNF tonight presented by Verizon. Could Herbert be chest pumping Ryan Fitzpatrick at the end of the game? Afterwards with no shirt on? We'll see. Not a Prime member. Not a problem. Simply sign up for a 30 day free trial. It's the Vikings and Chargers Thursday at 7pm Eastern only on Prime Video. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com amazonprime for details. All right, come back with a draft. I am going to tackle the team that will get the number one pick overall in 2026 category. And with apologies to Dolphins, Titans and Saints, I am going to take the 07 New York jets fair. Because I don't know what the move is. Like, they could play Tyrod Taylor. He had two interceptions in a half. Wilson's out for a little while. It doesn't seem like the coach is good, which is a problem. And they're in a division with Buffalo and the Patriots and they just seem like the most reliable bet to me.
- [71:37]
Craig Horbeck
And you could nicely stack that with Aaron Glenn first coach fire.
- [71:41]
Danny Kelly
Right.
- [71:41]
Craig Horbeck
That'd be a nice stack for you and your team.
- [71:43]
Bill Simmons
I could definitely do that. Dk, you're up.
- [71:47]
Danny Kelly
Okay, let's see here. I just need to. I want to take this guy off the board. So I'm going to do. Actually, no, I need to own something because I was in favor of Brock Bowers this off season and he is the fantasy murderer of the year. It's not all his fault because he got hurt.
- [72:10]
Bill Simmons
There's a question with murderers whether an injury is their fault.
- [72:13]
Danny Kelly
Right.
- [72:14]
Bill Simmons
But I think this was different because.
- [72:15]
Craig Horbeck
It'S involuntary manslaughter if they get hurt.
- [72:18]
Danny Kelly
Right, Right.
- [72:18]
Craig Horbeck
But Trevor Henderson, like, literally stabbed me to death.
- [72:21]
Bill Simmons
Well, the problem with Brock Bowers is he was hurt for four extra weeks where you had to start him, but he wasn't healthy. And then they're finally like, he's hurt.
- [72:29]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, our friend, he's hurt. We'll do points per game. Brock Bowers has fewer points per game than Jake Tonjas.
- [72:34]
Craig Horbeck
It was brutal having to play him like he was limping around like Sean Penn at the end of one battle after another. Just like for three weeks while you're still starting him.
- [72:41]
Bill Simmons
So I paid $36 for him in my knockout. I thought I was like, he's a $40 receiver. I'm getting a discount. At a position where there's no good people.
- [72:50]
Danny Heifetz
You pay $36. He has under 36 points. And believe it or not, Darren Waller matched it in like 36 snaps out of retirement.
- [72:58]
Danny Kelly
I don't like these Stats. It just makes me feel terrible inside.
- [73:01]
Bill Simmons
By the way, he had one good game and it was that week one Pats game, which is going to be in the running for weirdest result of the year. If the raiders are like 3:14 and the Pats are like 13 and 4, he'll be like, wait, what happened in week one?
- [73:11]
Danny Kelly
I think part of, part of the reason too that I wanted to highlight him. Even though obviously like the injury is the big reason here. But the Raiders have been so much worse than I expected their offense to be. Like they are uncompetitive on offense. What was it? They had 30 plays in this last game.
- [73:26]
Craig Horbeck
Chief said 31 points.
- [73:27]
Bill Simmons
Raiders had 30 plays under 100 yards. It's funny because you and Mina were complaining about Pete Carroll for the last couple of years there, right? And then he took. Then he took time off and then he. And came back and seems just as incompetent.
- [73:40]
Danny Kelly
Here's the deal.
- [73:41]
Craig Horbeck
He got older. Weirdly.
- [73:43]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, weirdly. He's mid-70s.
- [73:45]
Danny Kelly
We were complaining about him, but then when he got fired or whatever that was that happened, it was like you have this emotional connection to him and then you're kind of mad about it because they fired him.
- [73:55]
Danny Heifetz
Right.
- [73:57]
Danny Kelly
But I, Yeah, I thought he. I thought he was going to be. I thought he was going to turn this Raiders team around much more quickly than this is happening.
- [74:03]
Bill Simmons
I picked him to make the playoffs. I was battling Colts vs Raiders vs Jags for that last spot in the AFC and I couldn't get there with Danny Jones. Carol might not be done in this draft. He might be popping up again for all we know. Craig's up.
- [74:18]
Craig Horbeck
I'm going with QB off season. Hot seat guy. I think this is the last guy in his tier and I had him second. I'm taking Kyler Murray.
- [74:25]
Danny Kelly
Oh, I had him too.
- [74:26]
Bill Simmons
Had him as well.
- [74:27]
Danny Kelly
Craig, it's in red.
- [74:30]
Craig Horbeck
The worst place to be in the NFL is giving the big contract to a quarterback that you know can't do it. And it's tua.
- [74:37]
Bill Simmons
It's Trevor Lawrence, it's Bradley Beal in the NBA. It's like, ah, we gotta Trevor Kyler.
- [74:44]
Craig Horbeck
The Cardinals have the 27th most wins since Kyler was drafted. That's just like they have zero playoff.
- [74:49]
Danny Kelly
Wins and they're way more competitive with Brissette.
- [74:51]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah, yeah.
- [74:52]
Bill Simmons
Anytime there's a backup, the team seems fired up.
- [74:54]
Craig Horbeck
Yes.
- [74:55]
Bill Simmons
What's great about this. So we had the QB hot seat guy, Lawrence Murray. I have Lawrence. Craig took Murray. Danny has tua and there's still great value in the board for Heifetz.
- [75:05]
Danny Heifetz
I'm blown away.
- [75:05]
Bill Simmons
He's played this perfectly.
- [75:06]
Danny Heifetz
I was going to take someone right now, but then I'm like, I'm waiting. I'm waiting. Wow. We got to put it off.
- [75:11]
Danny Kelly
Wow.
- [75:12]
Danny Heifetz
I'm shocked. Okay, in that case, I'll take fantasy mvp. I'm going to go with. There are a lot of good options here, too, but I'm going to just. I'm going to just take a moment to talk about Christian McCaffrey from the 49ers.
- [75:24]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, this one's good.
- [75:25]
Danny Heifetz
And you could argue that maybe there's other guys because, you know, McCaffrey you probably took in the first round, and maybe there's other values. But it's funny because all we talk about this year is Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor in full PPR leagues. Jonathan Taylor is not the number one running back. Christian McCaffrey is the number one running back in full PPR leagues. And I feel like it's not getting discussed like, McCaffrey's on play with Mac Jones. He is on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards.
- [75:47]
Danny Kelly
He's third in the league in receptions.
- [75:49]
Danny Heifetz
He is. And he is 11 receivers. He has 11 fewer receiving yards than Justin Jefferson.
- [75:54]
Bill Simmons
He's so good that when he's been so good this year when it's like third and six, you're like, just run the play where you split McCaffrey out as a slot receiver. Nobody's guarded him all year.
- [76:04]
Craig Horbeck
The craziest thing about it is as good as McCaffrey's been this year, and I feel like everybody thinks about this, the 2023 Niner season when McCaffrey went crazy. He's having a better fantasy year this year than that year.
- [76:13]
Danny Heifetz
Yes.
- [76:13]
Danny Kelly
20, 23 points per game.
- [76:15]
Danny Heifetz
He won offensive player of the year in the 2023 season. And I think he had like 590 receiving yards. 580. He might pass that this week.
- [76:23]
Craig Horbeck
The only reason why I think, like, somebody like Taylor's better is because McCaffrey was taken, like, sixth overall. So you are. You are. This is what he's kind of supposed to be doing as opposed to guys like.
- [76:33]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I guess the fantasy MVP thing, is it, like, just who's been the most awesome or the value versus JSN and Jonathan Taylor.
- [76:39]
Craig Horbeck
You could have had him and McCaffrey.
- [76:41]
Danny Heifetz
Well, not to get too meta here, but by your logic, Jonathan Taylor went in this draft, like, three rounds ago, so. True.
- [76:48]
Danny Kelly
Interesting.
- [76:49]
Bill Simmons
True.
- [76:50]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [76:51]
Bill Simmons
Because Taylor, you guys did not have him in the top five.
- [76:54]
Craig Horbeck
No way. He was like a third rounder.
- [76:55]
Danny Heifetz
He's like top 20 guy.
- [76:57]
Craig Horbeck
Second round or third round.
- [76:58]
Danny Heifetz
I got him in the rear draft. Two quarterback league. But like the fourth round.
- [77:01]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [77:01]
Bill Simmons
High. Fitz, you have one more.
- [77:02]
Danny Heifetz
Oh, yeah, I do. I can't believe I get to just Sherry pick later.
- [77:06]
Bill Simmons
I just want to point out nobody has picked an offensive or defensive rookie of the year yet.
- [77:10]
Danny Kelly
That's.
- [77:11]
Bill Simmons
That category is wide open.
- [77:12]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah.
- [77:13]
Craig Horbeck
It's because I think it's deep and I don't feel confident about who's going to win it.
- [77:16]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, it's. It is deep. I agree with that. I will. In that case, I guess I might just dive in there and just. Actually, no, no, no. I'm going to.
- [77:23]
Bill Simmons
Because you tried to bully him and then take him.
- [77:25]
Danny Heifetz
I know you did. In that case. All right, we need to have a conversation for a second. Breakout star. What does that mean? Of all these categories you sent. I kind of just didn't know what that meant.
- [77:34]
Bill Simmons
All right.
- [77:34]
Danny Heifetz
Fairly. Because I will. In that case, I'm just going to throw some interpretation.
- [77:38]
Danny Kelly
Just give us your pick.
- [77:38]
Danny Heifetz
It's Cam Scatter Boo. For the New York Giants.
- [77:41]
Bill Simmons
I think that's fair. It's somebody that wasn't being discussed before the season as somebody who there would be lots of conversations about. And now it's week seven and people are talking.
- [77:51]
Danny Heifetz
I think scoutaboo is rocketed to fame more than anyone, including Drake. Drake May is like a better player and joining a tired category of quarterback. But Cam's catabo is honestly one of the. Like Bill, you always would talk about, like the conversations around the game. I don't know if online a player has actually been talked about more this season than Camp. Scat Boot. The photos, every. He's like, I. Again, my favorite thing about him when he was a kid, he'd put on his older brother's shoulder pads and he would run into telephone poles.
- [78:18]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [78:19]
Danny Heifetz
And you hear that story and you're like, yeah, that totally makes sense. He's just a white running back.
- [78:25]
Bill Simmons
I was texting you guys when. Cause I wanted the Pats to take him in the third round. And he just kept falling in the fourth round. And nobody could explain it. Cause everybody liked him and thought he was going to translate it. But he's not slow, though. When you watch him like, he's.
- [78:38]
Danny Kelly
He's got short area.
- [78:39]
Craig Horbeck
Once again, if the draft were on February 20th, it's like you watch him play at 1900 yards in college. He's good.
- [78:44]
Danny Heifetz
He doesn't win with speed. He wins with power. And he has enough acceleration to make the power work.
- [78:49]
Bill Simmons
But, I mean, people don't want to tackle him. And these are NFL players and they're.
- [78:52]
Danny Heifetz
Like, ah, he's a psychopath.
- [78:54]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah, he's a maniac. He's a pit bull.
- [78:55]
Bill Simmons
He's all crazy. I'm so not surprised by this.
- [78:57]
Danny Kelly
He's scoring his head like a few yards into the end zone to like take a guy out. Crazy.
- [79:03]
Bill Simmons
Oh, God.
- [79:04]
Danny Heifetz
Wow.
- [79:04]
Bill Simmons
I can't believe I got scattered. That's a really good pick. Craig, you're up next.
- [79:07]
Craig Horbeck
Coach fired Aaron Glenn.
- [79:09]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [79:11]
Craig Horbeck
Kind of surprised that he was still there. I think it gets tricky after him.
- [79:15]
Danny Kelly
It does.
- [79:16]
Bill Simmons
It definitely does.
- [79:17]
Danny Heifetz
I'll let DK figure out his picture. I'll just say it's funny that the jets were like, yeah, we hope Aaron Glenn learned something from Dan Campbell. And now it's like, you know the other coach who started 0 and 7, Dan Campbell, 01?
- [79:28]
Bill Simmons
Well, I did this on Sunday's pod because I looked this up and somehow it's harder to look up stuff now. Now that everybody puts AI in the Google, like just. It spits out weird stuff. But cam Cameron's Owen 13, I had forgotten about. It was in the mid 2000s on the dolphins. Owen 13 start.
- [79:45]
Danny Heifetz
The dolphins quietly have had some of. I mean, that Nick Saban, really rough Nick Saban like, I mean, man.
- [79:52]
Danny Kelly
DK here. So there's some good options in this one, but I'm just going to go with it. I'm going to go with the team that will get the number one pick, the Titans. They have pretty, pretty comfortably the hardest schedule of the 0 and 1 win teams. Right now they have to face the Colts, Chargers, Texans, Seahawks, Jags, Browns, 49ers, Chiefs, Saints, and then the Jags again. I could maybe find like two wins in there. Maybe.
- [80:17]
Bill Simmons
I looked at them too. It is crazy because everyone, everyone thought like the AFC south was probably going to be bad right now. It might have a 14 win team. The Jags are frisky. Houston's got a killer defense.
- [80:30]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, exactly. So I think this is also a team with an interim coach that nobody really believes in. A rookie quarterback. There's no skilled player talent right now.
- [80:40]
Bill Simmons
I like when teams are like, listen, Jeffrey Simmons, no way we're trading them. It's like, why not? He's in his late 20s. Like, why wouldn't you trade him for you get some like a first and a third for him. I would do that in five seconds.
- [80:53]
Danny Heifetz
Dude, this all the time. I mean, Max Crosby. Bill Bar is another one. Yeah. Like, years ago, like, Max Crosby. I'm like, you could have got two. First for Max Crosby. If they traded him two years ago and they. The teams don't want to get rid of guys competitively, but, like, they never want to do it.
- [81:07]
Bill Simmons
I have my instruments for the Pats. I don't think they trade with Vrabel, but I think he's potentially the best.
- [81:17]
Danny Heifetz
Guy that could be for Jeff Simmons or Crosby.
- [81:19]
Bill Simmons
Even in the one quarter he played against the Pats, he was, like, disrupted.
- [81:23]
Danny Heifetz
Yes.
- [81:23]
Bill Simmons
And then he went out and he became a lot easier.
- [81:25]
Danny Heifetz
Wow, he is 28 already. That's crazy.
- [81:27]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Yeah. I just like, when are you going to be good again? Tennessee, you know, dk. Was that your pick?
- [81:34]
Danny Kelly
That was my pick. Yeah. Yours?
- [81:35]
Bill Simmons
Oh, so I have two. Okay, let's do. Do I have to? No. You know what? I'm going to bang out an offensive or defensive rookie of the year, and the odds are pretty high for everybody because there's no favorite. There's so much. So much consensus. I mean, so much lack of consensus. I'm going to take Tyler Warren.
- [82:04]
Danny Kelly
Nice.
- [82:05]
Bill Simmons
Even though Egbuk has been awesome and Dart will have some sexiness because he's a QB in the New York market, but I just think Tyler Warren's like, honestly one of the best football players. Like, could he be the team all Pro as a tight end?
- [82:19]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. It's so clearly obvious that he's good immediately upon getting on the field.
- [82:24]
Bill Simmons
Nobody can tackle him. They can line him up everywhere. I love when tight ends can be used as, like a running back every once in a while or a slot receiver. We had that with Early Gronk where you could kind of just put them around the field and you could just see the defense like, oh, fuck. They spread them out wide.
- [82:40]
Craig Horbeck
And I don't think a tight end has ever won offensive rookie of the year.
- [82:42]
Danny Heifetz
No. I mean, Bowers had the most catches, like, the second most catches ever for any rookie and didn't even win rookie of the Year last year.
- [82:50]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [82:50]
Bill Simmons
All right, so then I'm going coach of the year. Heifetz already has Rabel and DKT is taken. I think the only guy left who can win this is Kyle Shanahan, and I'm going to grab him. I think he's 7 to 1 on FanDuel 5 and 2. He's turned Mac Jones into somebody that is probably going to get like a $20 million a year contract from somebody at some point. And be terrible when he gets it. All the injuries, the fact. The way they showed up for this last game with nobody on defense and just dudes I've never, ever heard of in my life.
- [83:24]
Craig Horbeck
Shanahan does this shit every year. Shanahan's no receivers, so Kendrick, Bourne and Mack Jo. I think the craziest Shanahan stat is the Nick Mullen stat.
- [83:32]
Danny Heifetz
Oh, yeah.
- [83:34]
Craig Horbeck
The most yards in the first 16 games of your career. It's Mahomes and then Nick Mullins, and.
- [83:39]
Danny Heifetz
Then it's like Andrew Luck Warner and Tony Romo.
- [83:41]
Craig Horbeck
The most yards in the first 16 games of your career, Patrick Mahomes and then fucking Nick Mullins because of Kyle Shanahan. That's unbelievable.
- [83:47]
Bill Simmons
That's crazy.
- [83:48]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [83:49]
Bill Simmons
Dk, you're up.
- [83:50]
Danny Heifetz
Okay.
- [83:50]
Danny Kelly
This is the guy I wanted to get off the board here, so I'm going to go breakout star.
- [83:55]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [83:57]
Danny Kelly
Igbuka.
- [83:58]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [83:59]
Danny Kelly
Amica Igbuka, who is only. His case is probably only going to get stronger going forward here, obviously, because.
- [84:06]
Bill Simmons
He seems like the greatest guy, too. Like, I think I'd vote for him for president in 28 if he decided to get the right partner. Everybody loves him. How are you a captain as a rookie? That's, like, impossible. It'd be like if when Heifetz joined as an intern, we were like, heifetz, you're now a captain.
- [84:21]
Danny Kelly
He's got it.
- [84:22]
Bill Simmons
This kid's got something.
- [84:23]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [84:24]
Bill Simmons
He's a leader, so.
- [84:27]
Danny Kelly
And also, by the way, with Mike Evans likely missing most of the season, and Buka is going to be there, you know, pretty clear cut, number one, it's only going up for him, so. And obviously I trust Mayfield to feed him the rest of the season.
- [84:39]
Bill Simmons
I really like Tez, too.
- [84:40]
Danny Heifetz
I know.
- [84:41]
Danny Kelly
I do, too.
- [84:41]
Bill Simmons
His story is the whole thing with him and Bo Nix's family, that's like the kind of the story that hasn't gotten enough play.
- [84:47]
Danny Heifetz
It's really cool.
- [84:48]
Bill Simmons
Really, really cool. But that guy, I thought Mayfield was awful on Monday night. I thought he missed a lot of throws. He missed Tez in the end zone at one point, but I thought Tez was open most of that game.
- [84:57]
Danny Heifetz
Tez also thinking the MVP chance were for him a couple weeks ago is one of the things the players said all year.
- [85:01]
Bill Simmons
He's good.
- [85:02]
Danny Kelly
Just genuinely awesome.
- [85:03]
Bill Simmons
Igbuka's lights out. He's been lights out. I remember when we talked in the my guy stuff and you guys were saying, like, in Guillotine, be careful with young guys, rookies. It takes a while. Ibuka came in, he had two touchdowns in his first game. It's immediately awesome. Craig, you're up.
- [85:15]
Craig Horbeck
I think I'm just going to take Jackson Dart for offensive rookie of the year.
- [85:18]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, that's the right pick. Because I'm shocked, dk, you went with breakout of the year for Buuka and not rookie of the year because.
- [85:24]
Craig Horbeck
Just.
- [85:25]
Danny Kelly
Because that was. Because I think Dart's going to win it.
- [85:28]
Danny Heifetz
Okay, well, he has dart now.
- [85:30]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [85:30]
Danny Heifetz
So Dart. The reason I left dart this long is my only. Obviously Dart's the favorite. My concern is the Giants the hardest schedule remaining in the NFL and I feel like they'll lose a lot of games. And I also kind of wonder if Dart's going to just get hurt.
- [85:42]
Danny Kelly
I just.
- [85:42]
Danny Heifetz
I just.
- [85:42]
Bill Simmons
I was going to say the bigger concern to me is he's. He's a fucking maniac. Like they need to run PSAs for him and show him all quarterbacks are taking dumb hits. He's going to get hurt like eight yards past the line of scrimmage trying to juke three guys as some linebacker hits him from behind. He just doesn't care.
- [85:59]
Danny Heifetz
This is Dable's toxic trait as a coach is that Josh Allen had no sense of self preservation early in his career when he played for Brian Dable. Daniel Jones, we kept you. We kept you joking that we thought Dable was trying to get Daniel Jones hurt because Daniel Jones took so many hits. And that's why Giants fans have no bad blood with Daniel Jones is he put his body on the line for the Giants like he would always take hits. And now it's dart and it's like goal line important third downs. You can't take hits. Getting the extra yard on its first and 10 and you're going for three yards and you're taking it to your four and he's.
- [86:28]
Bill Simmons
Drake may figured it out this year. They might. I. I'm convinced the body for it.
- [86:32]
Craig Horbeck
Dart is a little bit slighter.
- [86:34]
Danny Heifetz
He's a good runner but he just go down. Yeah, but he's just. He's his friends, you know, I don't think maybe it's. Maybe it's. You know that Cam Scatter Boo. Maybe he can.
- [86:41]
Craig Horbeck
He's rubbing off on.
- [86:42]
Danny Heifetz
Maybe Scatteraboo will tell. Literally with his face.
- [86:44]
Craig Horbeck
Human smelling salts.
- [86:45]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah. Rubbing their faces at each other.
- [86:46]
Bill Simmons
What's your other pick?
- [86:48]
Craig Horbeck
No, it's two to. If it's now.
- [86:49]
Danny Heifetz
Oh, it's two to me.
- [86:50]
Bill Simmons
Oh, I thought you took Jackson dart.
- [86:51]
Danny Heifetz
I wish.
- [86:52]
Bill Simmons
Oh, you took Jackson dart. Good pick.
- [86:56]
Danny Heifetz
I Yeah, I really, I was definitely gonna make that pick. If you didn't like Picaro.
- [87:00]
Bill Simmons
I forgot who took a pick like, like put it in a Poland McCallum. No, no, we have Genti now.
- [87:08]
Danny Heifetz
Damn. So the rookie of the year now. Now that's, that's.
- [87:10]
Craig Horbeck
Well, Travian Henderson is still there. He's 150 to 100.
- [87:14]
Danny Heifetz
I. I can go defense. That is true.
- [87:17]
Bill Simmons
The defensive rookie of the year list was really grim.
- [87:20]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, it's. It is. I'm not gonna go defensive rookie of the year because I think everyone voting is going to be like wow.
- [87:25]
Danny Kelly
I don't know.
- [87:25]
Danny Heifetz
I think everyone looks that up. The voters looked it up in like.
- [87:28]
Danny Kelly
12/20 like PFF stats and stuff.
- [87:30]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah. They just sort by. Yeah, great. I. Man. So you had Dart Abook and Warren are gone. Part of me, I guess the only answer left here is. It's crazy to say this but I mean Quin. Sean Judkins, I honestly have no idea if he'll win the award because of the off field stuff. But the other rookies, it's the Browns, they have an easy schedule remaining. But I mean he's printing pretty good.
- [87:52]
Danny Kelly
He looks good.
- [87:53]
Danny Heifetz
I don't feel great about this pick. It's probably my. Should I. Oh, Henderson's gone. That's too bad. You're right.
- [87:58]
Craig Horbeck
No, no, you could still take him in a different category.
- [88:00]
Danny Heifetz
No, that's how it works.
- [88:01]
Craig Horbeck
Oh, if I took Henderson in one category, can no one take him in another?
- [88:04]
Bill Simmons
No, it's just for that category. We can double up.
- [88:07]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah.
- [88:07]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [88:07]
Danny Kelly
Oh, okay. Okay. Okay.
- [88:08]
Craig Horbeck
So like, like Jackson, Smith and Jigba could be fantasy MVP and breakout star on different teams.
- [88:12]
Danny Heifetz
Oh, then I'll take Emeke Abuka for rookie of the year. Oh my God.
- [88:17]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. That's what I was saying when I want to take him off the board.
- [88:19]
Danny Heifetz
Well, glad I clarified that. Thanks.
- [88:22]
Bill Simmons
Wow, that's.
- [88:22]
Danny Heifetz
Then that's definitely. Yeah. I mean everything DK said. Yeah. Mike Evans is like. It's just if a Buka he's banged.
- [88:28]
Bill Simmons
Up so dark should be eligible for two categories.
- [88:30]
Craig Horbeck
I think so too.
- [88:30]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [88:31]
Danny Heifetz
Perfect then.
- [88:31]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [88:31]
Danny Heifetz
Then I think dk, I kind of screwed you there.
- [88:33]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. I haven't told me that. It's his fault.
- [88:35]
Danny Heifetz
That was wrong. But yeah, I mean Ibuka's amazing. So you got a second one now the second one. I will. I think I. I think I gotta dive into Fantasy Murderer here and man, there's some. There's some great picks here. There's two guys left that I'm. I'M perfectly happy with. But I think I have to take Brian Thomas Jr. From the Jaguars.
- [89:00]
Danny Kelly
He's a brutal. He's been brutal.
- [89:02]
Bill Simmons
I thought I was going to get him.
- [89:03]
Danny Heifetz
And it's because A.J. brown, you know, has been bad, too. But A.J. brown's had a great game. Here's the difference. Brian Thomas, you took him in the second round. If you didn't know anything about the Jaguars and Bill, if I. If I told you there was a receiver on the Jacksonville Jaguars who also plays cornerback and doesn't really practice with the offense that much. Yeah, you'd think it was Brian Thomas.
- [89:25]
Craig Horbeck
Also, like, if somebody just told you, oh, The Jags are 4 and 3 this year. They beat the Chiefs, you'd be like, oh, my God, Brian Thomas must be going crazy.
- [89:32]
Danny Heifetz
He must be doing great.
- [89:34]
Bill Simmons
I feel like I've watched too much of the Jags. But I also have him on multiple fantasy teams. And it's not just that. It's not a situation where the quarterback screw him over. He's just dropping balls, too. It's a combo of when he is open, he's overthrown or he drops it. The scenario is always bad. And last year it just felt like he was just beating guys downfield over and over again and getting wide open and I don't know what happened to that guy. Yep, really weird. I don't understand at all. You got one more pick.
- [90:03]
Danny Heifetz
No, because I took a boot to his offensive rookie.
- [90:06]
Bill Simmons
All right, Craig's up.
- [90:07]
Craig Horbeck
I'm going to go with God, I'm going to go with team that'll get the number one pick in the draft. And I'm going to take the Miami Dolphins.
- [90:19]
Danny Kelly
There you go.
- [90:20]
Bill Simmons
I like it.
- [90:21]
Danny Kelly
But they're so hot right now.
- [90:24]
Craig Horbeck
They only have three easy games left. Saints, jets and Bengals, if you even count the Bengals at this point. And I'm like, I think the Saints are better. I think the Bengals are better. It's brutal. I don't know if he's going to be playing the rest of the year. They might fire Mike McDaniel. Like, this team might just completely quit.
- [90:39]
Bill Simmons
I think it's the right pick. So we have. I took the jets, you have Miami, and DK has Tennessee. So really, the Saints or Vegas are just sitting there. Yeah. Okay. What do you got, Danny?
- [90:52]
Danny Kelly
All right. I'm going to go with MVP Josh Allen.
- [90:55]
Danny Heifetz
It's pretty good value at this point in the draft.
- [90:57]
Craig Horbeck
Josh Allen.
- [90:58]
Danny Kelly
Forgot about Josh Allen.
- [90:59]
Danny Heifetz
I'm really upset. I took Stafford, like five rounds.
- [91:01]
Craig Horbeck
I was surprised by that.
- [91:02]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, you don't get the odds. I panicked because I forgot I was.
- [91:06]
Danny Kelly
Doing two picks in a row in addition to being.
- [91:10]
Craig Horbeck
Which leaves Drake May for Bill.
- [91:11]
Danny Kelly
Absolute alien. The Bills have a pretty easy schedule down the line, so, you know, and again, he's. He's. He's this alien quarterback who can run around and do all the most insane physical things, but he also doesn't have the benefit or he. I think narratively he doesn't have like a number one receiver. You know, he doesn't have a superstar running back. Yeah. He doesn't have an elite defense. And so it does feel like the team. He's just putting the team on his shoulder. Even though I think they're solid across the board. You know what I mean? It just feels like he is elevating them.
- [91:44]
Bill Simmons
I really wanted him. And if you look at his next few games, like they're. I mean, they just have some cream puffs left. Both the AFC east really like that. At least they have to play Philadelphia in week 17 and they're at Houston. But, yeah, I think Josh Allen's kind of been under the radar this year. All these other stories, and it does feel like we're. We're due. Plus, he's got the Oscars coming up. Maybe his wife gets nominated.
- [92:11]
Danny Heifetz
Okay, That's a good pick, tk yeah.
- [92:13]
Bill Simmons
That was a good pick.
- [92:15]
Danny Kelly
Thank you.
- [92:16]
Bill Simmons
So I only have a couple ones left here. Oh, yeah. So I need to do my fantasy MVP. So Craig took JSN Heifetz took McCaffrey, Danny took Taylor. Man, this is tough because I was between Mahomes and Dak. I think it's Dak.
- [92:42]
Danny Kelly
No, I could. You could make the argument he's been one of the most valuable picks because of where you could get him.
- [92:48]
Craig Horbeck
I think in general, if you could pick a team, you should just say Dallas. I mean, the fact that Pickens Javante Williams out of nowhere at Dak, they've all been so Ferguson. Jake Ferguson's like the number one tight end in fantasy. Everybody's cleaning up Tack.
- [92:59]
Danny Heifetz
If you extend the grace of what he's done for them overall is probably the correct answer. Kind of breaking the rules.
- [93:05]
Bill Simmons
But yeah, he's also been awesome.
- [93:07]
Danny Kelly
He's been incredibly nice.
- [93:09]
Bill Simmons
I think him and May are playing the consistently the best on throws. Like just their guys are in stride all the time. The deep balls, everything Big time throws. Big time froze. Big time froze. That game he had against Green Bay, I thought it was the best quarterback game I've seen this year.
- [93:24]
Craig Horbeck
The three of us couldn't watch that. It was at 5am in Dublin. So we actually like, literally had to go to the.
- [93:28]
Danny Heifetz
Hard to watch much Internet like when you're out of the country with the geolocating. They got good at that. So we're just following the box score live.
- [93:34]
Craig Horbeck
We're like, wow, everyone's playing great in this game.
- [93:37]
Bill Simmons
So I'm the only one who didn't have most valuable player. Craig took Mahomes. If it's took Stafford, Danny took Allen.
- [93:44]
Craig Horbeck
I mean, come on. It's sitting right there for you.
- [93:45]
Bill Simmons
Well, a week ago I would have taken Mayfield, but Evans has gone for. I think that's a mountain too high.
- [93:51]
Danny Heifetz
You're gonna pretend you're not gonna do it.
- [93:52]
Craig Horbeck
It's a different.
- [93:53]
Danny Heifetz
Not fancy in the back.
- [93:54]
Craig Horbeck
Not Mayfield.
- [93:55]
Danny Heifetz
Just do it.
- [93:55]
Craig Horbeck
A different man.
- [93:56]
Bill Simmons
I looked at Jonathan Taylor, but running backs.
- [93:58]
Danny Heifetz
Oh, my God.
- [93:59]
Craig Horbeck
Running backs.
- [94:00]
Danny Kelly
Come on.
- [94:00]
Bill Simmons
Running backs never win.
- [94:02]
Craig Horbeck
What are we going to show that he did? Edging me.
- [94:04]
Danny Heifetz
This is plausible deniability. Come on.
- [94:07]
Bill Simmons
Jared got out of here.
- [94:09]
Danny Heifetz
He's not winning.
- [94:10]
Craig Horbeck
Stop edging.
- [94:10]
Danny Kelly
Tell us about Jackson Smith.
- [94:12]
Bill Simmons
He's Goon Prescott. They're gonna win nine games.
- [94:14]
Danny Heifetz
I feel like the Game of Thrones with the guy's on fire. He's like, kill me.
- [94:18]
Bill Simmons
Daniel Jones, 22.
- [94:19]
Danny Kelly
1. Okay.
- [94:22]
Bill Simmons
Jordan Love is even. Anyway, next pick, DK Lamar, 33 to 1.
- [94:28]
Craig Horbeck
That's not bad.
- [94:30]
Bill Simmons
Drake May 3rd. Best odds, 7 to 1. And does fit that top two seed thing. If they can beat Buffalo again.
- [94:36]
Danny Heifetz
I hate to say it. He does.
- [94:37]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. That's funny.
- [94:39]
Bill Simmons
Fourth best odds. I wanted Allen, but I think that's the right.
- [94:42]
Danny Heifetz
You could go back to Daniel Jones or Jonathan Taylor.
- [94:44]
Bill Simmons
I don't know.
- [94:44]
Danny Heifetz
Toss up. You know, Colts. You picked Colts for one seed. So by that logic, you know.
- [94:50]
Bill Simmons
And then I think I have fantasy murderer. Left is my last category, Right.
- [94:56]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah. Travion, Brian Thomas and Brock Bowers have been taken.
- [95:03]
Bill Simmons
This is really tough because I wanted to take Garrett Wilson, but his stats actually aren't that bad. He started really well.
- [95:08]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [95:08]
Bill Simmons
It just feels philosophically like it should be him more because he was a murderer last year. So he's like a double murderer. I think he's at fault.
- [95:15]
Danny Heifetz
He's like a murder victim. He's just been.
- [95:18]
Craig Horbeck
You could take Fields. Fields has been super up and down. Ruined a lot of people's lives.
- [95:22]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. But anyone who's like, I'm devoting my fantasy season to Justin Fields.
- [95:27]
Danny Heifetz
Like, you have to spend a certain amount of a high pick on a player like, that's why I think Henderson's as low as you can go. That still is a murderer because you reach for this fourth round guy and he's the only hype, but he has to be a high pick.
- [95:38]
Danny Kelly
Did we mention Saquon or Saquon? I think Henry.
- [95:40]
Craig Horbeck
Saquon and Derek Henry are eligible. I think Henry got dinged because of Lamar getting hurt.
- [95:46]
Danny Kelly
Saquon's. Saquon has literally done almost exactly half of what he did last year.
- [95:51]
Craig Horbeck
He's the RB18.
- [95:53]
Bill Simmons
Well, so I think Saquon is my pick. I did look at Nico Collins too, because I paid $50 for him and he has not been a $50 guy. But he is scoring touchdowns in some of the games. That's not really awful. And then the only other one I was thinking was Genti, just because he was being treated like a top five guy.
- [96:10]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [96:10]
Bill Simmons
But I think it has to be Barkley. I mean, Barkley was.
- [96:12]
Craig Horbeck
I mean, you took him first overall.
- [96:14]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. And he was supposed to be a sure thing. There's no doubt about this guy.
- [96:19]
Danny Heifetz
And it's funny that the person who's actually made people the anchors this season that we've heard about is probably AJ Brown. And a different Eagle got picked and AJ Brown didn't get picked.
- [96:27]
Craig Horbeck
That's because the last AJ Brown has been kind of on the upside.
- [96:29]
Bill Simmons
But are people mad at AJ Brown or are they mad at. That they don't throw A.J.
- [96:33]
Danny Kelly
Brown.
- [96:33]
Craig Horbeck
They're mad at the Eagles.
- [96:34]
Bill Simmons
Right, Right. Okay, Danny, you're up. And it looks like.
- [96:39]
Danny Kelly
So I've got. I still have to do offensive defensive rookie of the year. I kind of fucked myself on this one because now all the good, good. The good players are taken. I'm going to go off the board here. I'm going to take like a sleeper and I'm going to say Travis Hunter, who is standing in the right direction, he plays on both sides of the ball. If he finishes strong like so last week he had eight catches for 101 yards.
- [97:04]
Bill Simmons
The game was over for two hours. I know, but he started lighting it up.
- [97:07]
Danny Kelly
I know, but if you combine like the Brian Thomas stuff, him trending in the exact wrong direction.
- [97:13]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [97:13]
Danny Kelly
Travis Hunter, they're playing him more and more on offense now. He had. If you look at kind of some of like his snaps and target rates on offense, they're all going in the right direction. So this is more like a prediction of what's going to happen and a narrative pick because he's, you know, the number two pick. He plays both sides of the football. Obviously it looks terrible right now, but if in 10 weeks from now or whatever, we're talking about Travis Hunter having 80 to 100 yards a game and is emerging as their number one receiver, that narratively I think will pay off. But obviously I don't feel great about it right now.
- [97:48]
Bill Simmons
Gladstone's texting Liam Cohen like we're getting fucking killed. Throw some screens to Hunter. Boost the stats. Craig, you're up.
- [97:54]
Craig Horbeck
I'm going to take. I'm going to take the patriots as the 1 seed in the AFC. They're 5 and 2. They have the easiest schedule in the league. I think 12 wins minimum.
- [98:08]
Bill Simmons
I appreciate it. Thank you.
- [98:11]
Danny Heifetz
I guess I'll just be the. I'll. I'll do a deep cut here. I'll do. This is. I don't know if you guys have heard of this team, but I'm going to take the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 1 seed in the. In the AFC. The best team in football.
- [98:22]
Craig Horbeck
That's totally. I think that's. I thought about it, but they already have three losses. They can basically only lose two games to have a shot.
- [98:30]
Danny Heifetz
And I think they will. The Chiefs are going to. I think that. Look, the Mahomes thing for MVP, I'm jealous. Mahomes is 11 touchdowns and one pick in last month. They're going to go on a warpath. They're also the healthiest good team. They play the Colts. So if they win that game, they make that up right there. And I just.
- [98:44]
Craig Horbeck
They play the Colts, they play the Bills. They play the Broncos twice still. They have Houston, the Chargers.
- [98:49]
Danny Heifetz
I'm not worried about them playing the Broncos, Cowboys, the Chiefs. Eight teams in the AFC are between six and four wins. And the Chiefs to me, are clearly the best of the eight.
- [98:56]
Bill Simmons
I think it's the right pick. You have one more.
- [98:59]
Danny Heifetz
I have one more here. And so I guess now I double dip. I have to dip into the categories that you guys just left. To me.
- [99:05]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, the.
- [99:06]
Danny Heifetz
There's one boring one left and one the quarterback off season, hot seat or teams that get the 1 pick. Bill, what do you want to. You know, Car you do whatever you want to do. I have to. I am so thrilled that you guys left me J.J. mcCarthy for the Vikings as the quarterback off season, hot seat.
- [99:21]
Danny Kelly
Wow.
- [99:22]
Danny Heifetz
This guy like the Vikings had a very difficult situation to decision. Where do you pay Darnold 30, $40 million a year or do you go with McCarthy? And that's a hard decision. So it's not back Monday morning quarterbacking, but they clearly made the wrong decision because Darnold is playing. I mean, last time's tough, but Darnold's playing overall, totally, really well for Seattle.
- [99:44]
Danny Kelly
Right.
- [99:44]
Danny Heifetz
And then on the other hand, McCarthy. I agree with what you were saying on Sunday, Bill. We all Wonder if the McCarthy ankle thing was a shadow benching. There's probably some kind of injury there, but I'm like, they are hiding this guy. And also the Vikings to this point in the season had the easiest schedule in the NFL. The Vikings going forward have the hardest schedule in the NFL. So McCarthy comes back, he's going to get rocked. He's clearly not ready for the NFL. And the Vikings are a win now team. The timelines are totally mismanaged. He's not going to play well. And if he doesn't, the whole off season is going to be. What do the Vikings do? Are you going to go in with just JJ McCarthy again? They had Daniel Jones last year, let him go. They had Sam Darnold. They let him go. And like, he has more pressure on him than any quarterback going into next year.
- [100:23]
Bill Simmons
It's the longest high ankle sprain, I think, in recorded American history. It's like six weeks now. It's like, yeah, I mean, we have so much good technology. It basically means you would have to have a stress fracture in your ankle to not be well.
- [100:35]
Danny Kelly
They're in just clearly in no rush.
- [100:37]
Danny Heifetz
But he also looked horrible and unprepared on that Sunday Night Football game. It was the same night as the Emmys. And it was like, you know, the. He just looks not ready, but the Vikings are ready.
- [100:47]
Craig Horbeck
It's funny that he's basically want to know.
- [100:50]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, well. Well, also you have that post game locker room speech with o'. Connell. It's like, this guy, we never gave up on him. And McCarthy's like.
- [100:59]
Danny Heifetz
But also he has the highlight of his year. Do you ever have any friends who had a girlfriend but like, they were never there? They were never around. Like you never met him. Like, there's always some reason.
- [101:06]
Danny Kelly
She goes to a different school.
- [101:06]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, he goes to a different school. She's in Canada. It's like, oh, yeah, last year, what happened to his rookie? This meniscus thing? He was the only rookie. It's like, oh, where's he now? He's got like a hind. Like he's never there. When are we going to meet him?
- [101:14]
Danny Kelly
I know.
- [101:17]
Craig Horbeck
I'm going to take coach of the year.
- [101:18]
Bill Simmons
Wait, can I interrupt on the high Fitz thing for a second? I'd like to apologize to CJ Stroud for not getting drafted for QB offseason.
- [101:27]
Craig Horbeck
Certainly thought about it.
- [101:28]
Bill Simmons
I remember I almost took him over Lawrence.
- [101:30]
Danny Heifetz
That's.
- [101:31]
Bill Simmons
Are we sure he shouldn't take the blame?
- [101:32]
Danny Kelly
Well, I'm not saying he shouldn't.
- [101:34]
Bill Simmons
Did you like anything he did in that game yesterday? Like, how many times can you blame the offensive line?
- [101:38]
Craig Horbeck
He hasn't been good since his rookie year. Like the last two seasons, he's been genuinely bad. The Trevor Lawrence point that you made about everyone's creating excuses around Trevor Lawrence. It's kind of the same for Stroud. The offensive line is a disaster. It's like, maybe this play caller is.
- [101:49]
Bill Simmons
Also bad, but I thought their defense was awesome.
- [101:54]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [101:54]
Bill Simmons
And the only times the Seahawks moved the ball is like, JSN was incredible. Or they had like crazy field position. But Texans were like four times. There was like 10 guys hats on the ball.
- [102:03]
Danny Heifetz
And there are three defenses that are actually good at all three levels and those were two of them, which, like.
- [102:08]
Bill Simmons
They have to be so mad at the offense. It's like, what the fuck?
- [102:11]
Craig Horbeck
He might just be so gun shy now and just scared in the pocket because he just. I mean, he just gets drilled on every single play.
- [102:17]
Danny Heifetz
The Texans offensive line was so bad last year that they actually just swapped in like five guys and changed everything. Like demigod Ryan's. I've never seen a headline that was like the head coach being like, I deny that there's a toxic culture in our offensive line room. Like, I'm like, I don't.
- [102:31]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [102:32]
Craig Horbeck
Who said that?
- [102:33]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, but it's just. It doesn't have. It's Occam's razor. Like, the line sucks.
- [102:38]
Craig Horbeck
Yep.
- [102:39]
Bill Simmons
So sorry. Craig, you're up.
- [102:40]
Craig Horbeck
All good. I'm taking coach of the year. Fell to me. I really like these odds. Mike McDonald, Seattle Seahawks. I love that if they win the division with Sam Darnold Year 112 wins or something like that.
- [102:53]
Danny Heifetz
Absolutely.
- [102:54]
Craig Horbeck
Mike McDonald killing coach of the year.
- [102:55]
Danny Heifetz
That's.
- [102:56]
Craig Horbeck
That's.
- [102:56]
Bill Simmons
I had him as my fourth spot. The only thing he could give a speech about. I'm sorry I was such a puss in week one. And then later that other game.
- [103:05]
Danny Kelly
I don't think he'll use that word. Okay. He seems a little bit too, you know, straight laced.
- [103:10]
Bill Simmons
Well, now he believes in the team. When he went from fourth and two, it was a turning point.
- [103:13]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [103:13]
Bill Simmons
It's like, I believe in you guys.
- [103:14]
Danny Heifetz
They should be seven and oh, Seattle, they're really good.
- [103:18]
Danny Kelly
Well, the problem, the only thing holding him back and I Agree. I agree that, like, he's done a really good job. And the off season decisions, that's something we talked about with Steichen. You're making these really momentous off season decisions that are going. They're trading Way dk, my cap, trading away Geno.
- [103:30]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [103:30]
Danny Kelly
And all those decisions look really smart. So that is going to help him. But the only thing holding him back is Seahawks won 10 games last year, so that's. Generally. The coach of the year is like, you're bad and then good.
- [103:41]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [103:42]
Danny Heifetz
But I like that it's also. Coach of the year is the stupidest award there is.
- [103:45]
Danny Kelly
It's a narrative award.
- [103:47]
Danny Heifetz
It's. The coach of the year award is called the Lombardi Trophy. Sure. It's the dumbest thing ever. Like a regular season coach of the year award.
- [103:54]
Danny Kelly
I'm only down to. I got a few.
- [103:55]
Craig Horbeck
We have one more, I think.
- [103:56]
Danny Kelly
Right. So I got. I have to go with the one seed. I'm going with Bills seventh easiest, probably.
- [104:01]
Craig Horbeck
Right.
- [104:01]
Danny Kelly
According to Warren Sharp.
- [104:03]
Bill Simmons
Very smart.
- [104:04]
Danny Kelly
And obviously I'm doubling on. I'm like, stacking here with Josh Allen, mvp. So. Yeah. Okay.
- [104:12]
Bill Simmons
And then I'm up.
- [104:13]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [104:13]
Bill Simmons
Why do I have. Pause this for one second?
- [104:16]
Craig Horbeck
I have one more.
- [104:17]
Danny Kelly
Right.
- [104:19]
Bill Simmons
I feel it. Maybe I went like three times in a row.
- [104:22]
Craig Horbeck
Are you done?
- [104:23]
Bill Simmons
I have picks for every pick.
- [104:26]
Danny Heifetz
Did you pick next coach fired?
- [104:30]
Bill Simmons
Oh, I wrote next coach fired. Okay.
- [104:33]
Craig Horbeck
Neither does dk.
- [104:34]
Danny Kelly
Yep. I think that's my last one.
- [104:36]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, but.
- [104:37]
Craig Horbeck
But he should have two. Bill should have two.
- [104:39]
Bill Simmons
I should have two. I must have doubled.
- [104:40]
Danny Kelly
You don't have breakdowns.
- [104:40]
Danny Heifetz
You don't have fantasy mvp. Bill, who did you took for fantasy mvp?
- [104:44]
Bill Simmons
I took Dak Dak.
- [104:45]
Danny Heifetz
Right.
- [104:46]
Danny Kelly
Bart.
- [104:46]
Bill Simmons
And then somehow I win twice.
- [104:48]
Danny Kelly
High Fitz only has team that will get the number one.
- [104:51]
Danny Heifetz
Bill did. Yeah, some. Yeah, maybe Bill won three times in a row.
- [104:55]
Craig Horbeck
So just go once then, Bill.
- [104:56]
Danny Kelly
No, because we all have.
- [104:57]
Bill Simmons
Well, I don't know.
- [104:57]
Danny Kelly
Whatever.
- [104:58]
Danny Heifetz
I do have Bill. I do have. Oh, wait, no, no, no. Bill, you don't have coach. Coach of the year. He took Shanahan, right?
- [105:03]
Craig Horbeck
No, he took.
- [105:04]
Danny Heifetz
Oh, yeah, you took Shanahan. Okay.
- [105:05]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, Bill took Shanahan.
- [105:06]
Bill Simmons
All right, so how did.
- [105:09]
Craig Horbeck
We have no idea.
- [105:10]
Bill Simmons
I don't know.
- [105:10]
Craig Horbeck
You just gotta go once and then we'll swing back.
- [105:12]
Bill Simmons
Pretty exciting. So I have next coach fired as my last one.
- [105:16]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [105:16]
Bill Simmons
Okay. And I will do. Okay.
- [105:23]
Craig Horbeck
All right.
- [105:24]
Bill Simmons
Coming back, we. Oh, I'll do it differently.
- [105:28]
Craig Horbeck
All right.
- [105:28]
Bill Simmons
I'm up with next coach fired. And somehow this is My last pick. So we think maybe I did three picks in a row at some point. I'm making fun of Pete Carroll, and I've somehow tripled up on my spot.
- [105:38]
Danny Heifetz
I mean, you remember the 1976 Mariners being introduced, But I will say the first in Ringer 107. You change the lines of the Broncos game and, like.
- [105:44]
Bill Simmons
I didn't change it.
- [105:45]
Danny Heifetz
There's cheating allegations.
- [105:46]
Bill Simmons
There's no cheating.
- [105:47]
Danny Heifetz
There's an active investigation.
- [105:48]
Bill Simmons
Okay. We lost the pick anyway.
- [105:50]
Craig Horbeck
How do you feel about us? How do you feel about us three in first place?
- [105:53]
Bill Simmons
Ringer One of them won't last for much longer.
- [105:55]
Craig Horbeck
What is.
- [105:56]
Danny Heifetz
Wait, what is the name you said this morning? The gambling contest. We're tied for first and you said we would come in last.
- [106:01]
Craig Horbeck
The Happy Gilmore, when he's like, the pathetic thing is, you've been doing this your whole life.
- [106:08]
Bill Simmons
I thought you'd come in last. I didn't know SHIELD Was going to get bit by a black widow spider.
- [106:12]
Craig Horbeck
What's great about it is we legitimately spend, like, three minutes a week.
- [106:16]
Bill Simmons
That's the way to do it.
- [106:17]
Craig Horbeck
It's like, not.
- [106:18]
Danny Kelly
It's.
- [106:18]
Danny Heifetz
We're like the people who draft our teams in February.
- [106:23]
Craig Horbeck
Every week. We're like, should we just take the Colts again?
- [106:25]
Danny Heifetz
We're like, yeah, let's do it.
- [106:27]
Bill Simmons
Smart. Next coach fired. I gotta do it. John Harbaugh. Hold on. Yeah, I like it.
- [106:37]
Craig Horbeck
John Harbaugh.
- [106:38]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [106:39]
Craig Horbeck
Lamar's been hurt.
- [106:40]
Danny Heifetz
Okay.
- [106:40]
Bill Simmons
I think if this goes badly this year, Lamar comes back as like, oh, they're going to be fine. They're going to make it. And if it goes badly the next five weeks.
- [106:48]
Danny Heifetz
I agree that John Harbaugh has at various times been closer to getting fired than you would think.
- [106:53]
Bill Simmons
Yes.
- [106:54]
Danny Heifetz
But. And there might. And there actually hasn't been a coach quarterback pairing. This won a Super bowl that took longer than five years. Having said that, firing John Harbaugh after the most injured season the Ravens have had in 10 years, and they've had two bad seasons. 17 years under Harbaugh. He would then probably get his salary doubled to be replaced. Like the Browns or Bengals would just fire their coaches.
- [107:16]
Bill Simmons
We live in a world where Andy Reid got fired after one 6 and 10 Eagles season, and people are like, he's done. Can't coach anymore. I'm just. I think it's on the table. They've never won. They've never made the super bowl with him and Lamar. They're having a bad season. If you're ever going to press the EJECT button. This would be it. And I couldn't come up with a better coach idea.
- [107:36]
Danny Heifetz
It is hard actually.
- [107:38]
Bill Simmons
After Danny goes, we'll have to go through who didn't get picked.
- [107:40]
Danny Kelly
So. Yeah. And I also have a problem. I have like, I probably messed myself up by not picking this earlier, but I think the reason I didn't is because I'm kind of going out of left field too. I'll put Jonathan Gannon for the Cardinals.
- [107:52]
Bill Simmons
So he was the other guy I was looking at and I just, I.
- [107:55]
Danny Kelly
Think it's more of just like a vibes and lack of progress thing. That would be the reason I don't feel strongly that he's like deserves to get fired. But I think just I had him on the list.
- [108:05]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I had him on the list. I do feel like that team has played reasonably hard for him. It just seems like they, they're like a 50 minute team and they seem to run out of gas.
- [108:14]
Craig Horbeck
I don't think it's a Jonathan Gannon problem.
- [108:16]
Danny Kelly
No, I agree.
- [108:16]
Bill Simmons
But I think just that's the thing. There's not a lot of next coach fire candidates. So. No, I mean the only McDaniel.
- [108:24]
Danny Heifetz
That's why I took McDaniel with the first pick in this whole thing.
- [108:25]
Craig Horbeck
Part of me thought if the Giants were really bad, they could fire Dabel.
- [108:28]
Danny Heifetz
I'm shocked nobody took Dable.
- [108:29]
Danny Kelly
I think Dable bought himself time, which is exactly what you do when you take.
- [108:33]
Bill Simmons
He's tied in with Dart. They got something going. I'd be surprised if they fired him.
- [108:36]
Danny Heifetz
You'd be more surprised if the Giants fired Brian Dable at the end of the season than the Ravens firing John Harbaugh.
- [108:42]
Bill Simmons
No, I think it's even for me, I think this Raven season could go really badly where they're just like, we've got to figure out something new here. You know what I mean? If it's ever going to happen, it's a year like this where it's like the year from now and then there's got to be a fall guy because the other, that's the other thing that happens with this stuff is people start. There's like the political stuff and it's like, well, somebody's going to get blamed me. It's this guy's fault. And that's when the finger point exists also, isn't there?
- [109:10]
Danny Kelly
There's an impression among some people in the NFL that like if you've been there a certain amount of years, like the message just doesn't come through anymore. Right. I don't know what the Ravens feel about that, but that was part of the reason. Like the Pete Carroll thing ended in Seattle. Right. At some point we've taken us as.
- [109:26]
Bill Simmons
Far as you can go.
- [109:27]
Danny Kelly
We don't listen to all the stuff that you, you know, profess every practice or whatever. It's like it just kind of like gets. You just get numb to it.
- [109:36]
Danny Heifetz
You guys are right. John harbor should have got a medical degree in the last six weeks and just fixed everyone on the topics was.
- [109:41]
Bill Simmons
This passion about John Harbaugh.
- [109:43]
Danny Heifetz
Teams get hurt.
- [109:43]
Bill Simmons
It's like 39th pick in the draft.
- [109:46]
Craig Horbeck
Fair enough.
- [109:47]
Bill Simmons
Welcome to my Jonathan Gannon.
- [109:49]
Craig Horbeck
Fair enough.
- [109:50]
Bill Simmons
I couldn't even come up with another idea.
- [109:53]
Danny Kelly
I have to deal with this four times a week.
- [109:54]
Danny Heifetz
It's true. The fact that DK hasn't killed me by now.
- [109:57]
Bill Simmons
I feel like the dart dayball thing really bought day ball another year.
- [110:00]
Danny Kelly
I do too.
- [110:00]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, we'll see. But when they're winning. But now they had the worst four. They were allowed 33 points in the fourth quarter. Shane Bowen. The defensive quarter is going to sacrifice in the next month.
- [110:09]
Bill Simmons
Who? Craig, you're up.
- [110:10]
Danny Kelly
Craig, you're up.
- [110:11]
Craig Horbeck
My last category is breakout star. I'm happy to just fall back on Jackson. Dart.
- [110:16]
Danny Heifetz
Yep.
- [110:16]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. Smart. Did no one put Daniel Jones? Does that not count?
- [110:20]
Craig Horbeck
I thought about it. Yeah, he would have counted qualified. I just think Dart he's a character. Well, also compared to what everybody thought about him coming in.
- [110:28]
Danny Kelly
I mean, sure, that's true.
- [110:29]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah, like 1% of people thought he was going to be a starter in the NFL and not only is he going to be a starter, but he. I mean he looks great for having played six games.
- [110:37]
Danny Kelly
Five games thrilling.
- [110:39]
Bill Simmons
So Heifetz has the last pick and it's team that will get the number one pick in Jets, Miami and Tennessee off the board.
- [110:45]
Danny Heifetz
My cup runneth over getting to pick between the races. Raiders and the Saints. This is unbelievable.
- [110:49]
Bill Simmons
It's pretty nice.
- [110:50]
Danny Heifetz
I mean I this is top runners.
- [110:52]
Craig Horbeck
I mean they're all good. I mean there's like five terrible teams.
- [110:55]
Danny Heifetz
Everyone's going to get a good so I have many thoughts here.
- [110:59]
Craig Horbeck
I think the Saints are kind of competent.
- [111:01]
Bill Simmons
I for that reason I agree.
- [111:02]
Danny Kelly
Craig.
- [111:02]
Danny Heifetz
I'm taking the Raiders because I can't get over the fact that they had allowed more points than had ran plays.
- [111:09]
Danny Kelly
And that's really brutal.
- [111:10]
Bill Simmons
I think they threw that game away though. Like they knew Bowers wasn't playing. They knew they were going to lose to the Chiefs. It felt like a rollover yeah, they're going on by.
- [111:18]
Danny Heifetz
Well, it's really early to roll over. It's not even Halloween.
- [111:20]
Bill Simmons
They're not.
- [111:21]
Danny Kelly
I don't think the Raiders are going to have the first pick.
- [111:23]
Danny Heifetz
I think Kamala Harris maybe will come in and just take over in the middle of the season. Be careful. Yeah, you're right.
- [111:28]
Bill Simmons
What was the other option?
- [111:29]
Danny Heifetz
The Saints.
- [111:32]
Craig Horbeck
What, so you didn't support that decision by the Democratic Party?
- [111:36]
Danny Heifetz
You know, sometimes the timing, you know.
- [111:38]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [111:39]
Danny Heifetz
100 days, Sal was saying that's. He named the ringer. 107.
- [111:43]
Bill Simmons
All right.
- [111:43]
Craig Horbeck
She had 107 days.
- [111:44]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah.
- [111:45]
Bill Simmons
People have asked why it's 107 instead of 103. Because the correct number is 103 for five.
- [111:50]
Craig Horbeck
Is that right?
- [111:51]
Bill Simmons
Well, because we're putting props in. The extra games are. When we get to the playoffs, it's going to be props, plus the games.
- [111:57]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [111:58]
Danny Heifetz
I don't know why everyone just doesn't know that immediately.
- [111:59]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [111:59]
Bill Simmons
I don't know why they didn't ask.
- [112:01]
Danny Heifetz
I'm right here.
- [112:02]
Bill Simmons
They could have asked me. I'm standing right here. Here's the case for the Saints. It seems like they might want the number one pick because there's already been. I don't think Rattler's that bad. He was bad in Chicago, outdoors, whatever. The Bears defense is actually, like, pretty good. But for the most part, he's not bad. They replace him with shuck. My shit detector's going off. That could be one of those. Oh, I see what you guys are up to.
- [112:26]
Danny Heifetz
I think the Saints, the same reason they roll the cap over every year. They don't do that. They're. They're. Mickey Loomis, who runs the team, who's. For reasons we don't have to get into quietly, as entrenched as anybody in the league. They just. The deal is that they'll be competitive for Gail Benson, who owns the team. And the deal is we're competitive.
- [112:43]
Bill Simmons
So your case is they're not competent enough to even plan a tanking strategy.
- [112:47]
Danny Heifetz
No, the Dolphins can't.
- [112:48]
Danny Kelly
They don't think that way.
- [112:49]
Bill Simmons
So I'm going to recap the draft. I'm not going to say everybody's name before each pick, but I'll just. I went first. No, Danny went first.
- [112:57]
Craig Horbeck
First, me second.
- [112:59]
Bill Simmons
Wait, why did I do it this way? Let's do it this way. Yeah, I'll go. Me, Craig, Heifetz, Kelly in these orders. Right. So I'm first, Craig second, Heifetz third, Danny fourth. Most valuable player. May Mahomes Stafford Allen. Coach of the year Shanahan McDonald, Vrabel Steichen. Offensive defensive rookie of the year Warren. Dart Igbuka, Travis Hunter.
- [113:24]
Danny Kelly
Oh, why not?
- [113:25]
Bill Simmons
Very exciting pick. Next coach fired. Harbaugh, Glenn, McDaniel, Gannon. Breakout star Drake May. Picked twice by me.
- [113:35]
Danny Kelly
That was great.
- [113:35]
Bill Simmons
Who could have said that Worked out. Dart, Scataboo, Egbuka. Who wasn't picked in that category?
- [113:43]
Craig Horbeck
Which one?
- [113:43]
Bill Simmons
Breakout star Warren.
- [113:44]
Danny Kelly
Daniel Jones.
- [113:45]
Craig Horbeck
Warren wasn't.
- [113:46]
Bill Simmons
Warren probably had a case. He's probably upset.
- [113:48]
Danny Kelly
What about Dowdle?
- [113:51]
Bill Simmons
QB offseason hot seat. Breakout star Rogers A re breakout QB offseason hot seat Lawrence Murray, McCarthy. Tua apologies to Stroud. He can't believe he didn't get drafted.
- [114:03]
Craig Horbeck
Honorable mention Stroud.
- [114:05]
Bill Simmons
One seed, AFC or nfc. I took Indy, Craig had the Pats, Heifetz had the Chiefs and Danny had Buffalo. I think those are four good picks. What's interesting is no NFC teams.
- [114:14]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, NFC teams.
- [114:15]
Bill Simmons
We all passed on Philly.
- [114:16]
Craig Horbeck
Well, because it's like Detroit's there, Green Bay's there.
- [114:18]
Danny Kelly
There's a lot. Eagles have the third hardest remaining schedule.
- [114:21]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I think we all saw it the same way.
- [114:23]
Danny Heifetz
It's like I also thought Dan Campbell would get a coach of the year pick because of the Lions without. I thought about that Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn and then all the injuries and they get the one seed anyway.
- [114:32]
Bill Simmons
I think he has the fourth best odds. I gotta say, for one seed, I did have Seattle as my fifth backup just because I, you know, team that will get the number one pick. Jets, Miami, Vegas, Tennessee. No surprise there. Fantasy MVP. I had Dak, Craig had JSN Heifetz had McCaffrey and Danny had Taylor. And then the most important, the best picture award nominee for this thing, fantasy murderer of the year. Barkley, Henderson, Thomas Jr. And Bowers were the big four. Bowers is the only one I feel kind of bad about because he did get hurt, but they also didn't tell us he was hurt for five weeks. All right, we're going to go after we do one crazy prediction. Ifitz, what's your craziest prediction for the rest of the year?
- [115:13]
Danny Heifetz
I feel like Joe Flacco is going to play so well for the Bengals that they're actually. We're going to have a debate whether Joe Burrow should even go back.
- [115:20]
Craig Horbeck
Stop.
- [115:22]
Bill Simmons
This is getting. It was crazy.
- [115:26]
Danny Heifetz
Obviously, like, healthy Joe Burrow is better. I'm just saying, like you said, craziest prediction.
- [115:30]
Bill Simmons
The single craziest thing I will say.
- [115:33]
Danny Kelly
There is online discourse that Now Burrow is a system quarterback. Dice him up.
- [115:39]
Danny Heifetz
Flacco's like, wait, just throw it to Chase. This is so easy.
- [115:41]
Craig Horbeck
23 targets.
- [115:42]
Danny Heifetz
Did you know, obviously Joe Burrow, healthy, is like one of the best players in the entire league and would be a question, I think, if Joe. I actually kind of wonder, obviously maybe the Steelers are just idiots and couldn't like cover Jamar Chase for some reason.
- [115:54]
Craig Horbeck
That's correct.
- [115:54]
Danny Heifetz
23Rd target. But if Flacco keeps us up and the whole idea is if you just get a good enough record to get to Burroughs returning in December, then he can finish out the season. Bengals can make the playoffs. If Flacco does that, if they go like 8 and 3 or whatever in the next 11 weeks or whatever, who's going to be better? Joe Flacco having won seven of his last nine games, or Joe Burrow rushing back from an injury with three months of rust. And imagine if Burrow comes back and then like doesn't play well because he's hurt and rusty and everyone's gonna be like, damn, should Flacco play next week? I kind of think this will happen.
- [116:28]
Bill Simmons
It's pretty good.
- [116:29]
Craig Horbeck
It definitely won't.
- [116:31]
Danny Kelly
It's a good hot take.
- [116:32]
Bill Simmons
Craig was jealous of it.
- [116:33]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah, yeah, I know. Mine's not as hot as that.
- [116:35]
Bill Simmons
What do you got, Craig?
- [116:36]
Craig Horbeck
Mine is more off season, but I think the Steelers are going to resign Aaron Rodgers. I think they're going to extend.
- [116:41]
Danny Kelly
Done. No, he said that he's retiring.
- [116:43]
Craig Horbeck
No, I think they're going to go like 11 and 6.
- [116:46]
Danny Kelly
No, they're going to draft A in the first round and then he's going to be like, I want.
- [116:50]
Craig Horbeck
They're going to win a playoff game and he's going to come back because the quarterback class this year is bad. They're going to have a bad pick. Their team is old. Their defense is old. They are in win now mode. It seems like it's working. And the locker room likes Aaron Rodgers. He mixes well with Arthur Smith and Tomlin. I think they're just going to bring him back and extend him.
- [117:06]
Danny Heifetz
I think he's dumb, but that's going to happen.
- [117:09]
Danny Kelly
He's got. He's got that second wind, the third wind. It does remind me a lot of the time when the packers were like, he's kind of cooked. We're going to draft Jordan Love and then he won two straight MVPs.
- [117:19]
Bill Simmons
When does the Brady plate until he was 45. When is that?
- [117:23]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah, Rogers is only 41. That's spring chicken compared to Brady.
- [117:26]
Danny Heifetz
Oh my God. This dude was gonna. Five years of Rogers.
- [117:29]
Danny Kelly
Think about all the anti aging stuff.
- [117:30]
Craig Horbeck
He's probably the herbal tea he's drinking. We can't even imagine what he's having.
- [117:33]
Danny Heifetz
Ivermectin.
- [117:34]
Danny Kelly
Live forever. What's his name?
- [117:35]
Craig Horbeck
Oh, Brian Johnson.
- [117:37]
Danny Heifetz
Brian Johnson.
- [117:38]
Craig Horbeck
You know that guy who lives in Venice? Brian Johnson.
- [117:40]
Bill Simmons
He's like, oh, I've read about that guy.
- [117:41]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, he's like, he measures like his.
- [117:43]
Craig Horbeck
Morning erections every night. He like, he like takes his son's blood every day. The vampire. The funny thing about him is a blood bag guy. I believe he is like 45 years old. And if you see him, he like looks 45. You're like, I don't know.
- [117:56]
Danny Kelly
He says he has. He's the biologically youngest 45 year old.
- [118:00]
Bill Simmons
When you do all that stuff, it's like you're gonna die being like electrocuted during golf.
- [118:04]
Craig Horbeck
He'll get hit by a box.
- [118:05]
Bill Simmons
Sort of like hit by lightning or like one in a million odds.
- [118:08]
Craig Horbeck
Also, you live in la, like the worst air pollution city. And yeah, you're just breathing that in every day.
- [118:13]
Bill Simmons
Dk, what do you have?
- [118:15]
Danny Kelly
I'm stealing this from the online discourse, but JJ McCarthy will never start another game for the Vik. I don't actually believe this, but I'm starting to maybe think it's true. They're like. It feels like they are. You know, why don't you just go get some work on your ankle? Just keep working on it. You know, they watch him in practice.
- [118:36]
Craig Horbeck
Daddy's taking the dog to the farm. He'll be back. The dog will be back. Don't worry.
- [118:40]
Bill Simmons
Amazing take.
- [118:41]
Danny Kelly
Well, so. And I think it's also funny because.
- [118:44]
Bill Simmons
It'S like on tv, somebody just is off the show for a couple weeks and they never come back. What happened?
- [118:49]
Danny Kelly
Totally.
- [118:50]
Bill Simmons
Weren't they in the credits?
- [118:51]
Craig Horbeck
They kill somebody off of a Grey's Anatomy.
- [118:53]
Danny Kelly
And then. And then McCarthy sues the Vikings in like two years. The Vikings quarterback room last year, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones. J.J. mcCarthy's on IR.
- [119:04]
Bill Simmons
I think they had.
- [119:05]
Danny Kelly
I think Daniel Jones was actually on the practice squad for most of the time. But it is crazy that they let Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones go. And they are like two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year. And now they're playing Carson Wentz.
- [119:15]
Craig Horbeck
I know. If the Vikings were smart, like they get rid of McCarthy and then they should trade for like Trevor Lawrence. And o' Connell just fixes Trevor Lawrence.
- [119:23]
Danny Kelly
Speaking of online discourse, you Know who's the hot topic right now? Anthony Richardson.
- [119:27]
Craig Horbeck
Jesus Christ.
- [119:27]
Danny Kelly
Let's do this. Let's do this. Solak was tweeting about it today.
- [119:31]
Craig Horbeck
Richardson to the Vikings.
- [119:32]
Bill Simmons
To the Vikings. Oh, because they wanted him at number four.
- [119:35]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. And there was like a NFL films behind the scenes thing where KOC was like, hugging Richardson and talking to him.
- [119:43]
Craig Horbeck
That's o' Connell getting way too cocky, being like, I can fix anything.
- [119:47]
Danny Kelly
He's like, I can fix him.
- [119:48]
Danny Heifetz
Well, o', Connell, I mean, he Darnold, Daniel Jones, he really helped guys with what's going on in their head. And Anthony Richardson just broke his face with band work pregame. So maybe KFC can.
- [119:58]
Craig Horbeck
A lot of pain going on in his head.
- [120:00]
Danny Kelly
Bad vibes happening there with Richardson. He needs to go find a new home.
- [120:03]
Bill Simmons
I'm so excited to unleash mine. I'm glad I'm going last. I'm even going to give you the week. It's going to be in this range between week 11 and week 13. Ben Johnson will bench Caleb Williams and start Tyson Bajan. Ooh, he would be the starter. Tyson Bajan would be the starter in time for week 13. Week 14. This is my crazy prediction.
- [120:26]
Danny Heifetz
Why?
- [120:27]
Bill Simmons
Because I think the Bears are pretty good and I think Caleb is holding them back. And Ben Johnson is just going to be like, fuck it. And he loves Tyson Bajan.
- [120:34]
Craig Horbeck
They're 4 and 2. They've won four straight.
- [120:36]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah.
- [120:37]
Bill Simmons
They're like a playoff team, and Caleb has not been good for them.
- [120:40]
Craig Horbeck
You must have been talking to Troy Aikman a little bit too much. Traygman. Not with.
- [120:43]
Danny Heifetz
Caleb's supposed to call you and missed it. Is that what happened?
- [120:46]
Bill Simmons
I don't know what. I don't know what the impetus will be, but there were a lot of breadcrumbs being dropped. Tyson Bagen's way before the year about what an unbelievable teammate he is. I think at some point their team's pretty good. They just need somebody to drive the car and they could go like 11 and 6.
- [121:00]
Craig Horbeck
So do you think Caleb is not on the Bears next year?
- [121:04]
Bill Simmons
I think here's how I played it in my head. Some sort of minor injury where they're just like, we're gonna sit him this week and play Tyson and Ben Johnson and be like, please, God, have him be fucking awesome.
- [121:14]
Danny Heifetz
To make up something hypothetical. Like a high ankle sprain or something.
- [121:16]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, like. Yeah, maybe it's some sort of. Or like a pulled brain. Some sort. Or he took a hit.
- [121:23]
Danny Kelly
The thing I hate about DK loves this it makes me nervous because it could be like, real ringer. Former Ringer colleague Rhino Hamlin has started texting me with the hashtag Bajan Boys because he just thinks he's like, I think they think Bajan's better than Caleb.
- [121:38]
Craig Horbeck
They extended Bajan this offseason.
- [121:40]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, I like his work ethic, but.
- [121:43]
Bill Simmons
They talked about how much they love him, and he's one of the best people I've ever been around. They did all this stuff.
- [121:48]
Danny Heifetz
But the old coaching staff or the new coaching staff. The old coaching staff really threw Caleb under the bus.
- [121:53]
Bill Simmons
New coaching staff. I don't know if you guys watched game we had in Ringer 107. Caleb was bad in that game. Caleb's kind of been bad every game.
- [122:01]
Danny Kelly
Except for the downs game inaccurate.
- [122:02]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah, he's always.
- [122:03]
Danny Kelly
The problem is, like, in Ben Johnson, you can see it. You can see an offensive coach doing this. It's kind of like the Shanahan thing. It's like, I don't care who he is. I don't care if it's Trey Lance. We drafted him third overall or whatever. It was like the. Our third guy is running the offense the most clean.
- [122:18]
Craig Horbeck
It's a little.
- [122:19]
Danny Heifetz
The entire Patriots thing happened because they gave Bledsoe $100 million contract and Belichick still kept radiant.
- [122:24]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah.
- [122:24]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [122:25]
Craig Horbeck
It's a little Trevor Lawrence with Caleb Williams where you can see the physical tools. Like, there are moments where you're like, jesus, like, Caleb's making throws two people in the league can make, but just normal downs, where a guy's open, he's.
- [122:37]
Danny Heifetz
Here's the thing, though. I'm torn with Caleb because on one hand, I wonder if there's smoke with fire with all these. I guess the word is unsubstantiated rumors about, like, all the stuff that was said by the previous staff anonymously. But the flip side is I also am just a radical about really talented quarterbacks needing time. And I just. I don't know. You remember the Mariners in 76. Like, remember when quarterbacks weren't supposed to play free? I just couldn't believe you said, remember 1976? But, like, it's a big deal.
- [123:03]
Bill Simmons
We had two new American League teams. It's like, who are these guys?
- [123:06]
Danny Heifetz
It's just a funny thing to say, but I just. Your whole life wasn't the deal. Quarterbacks kind of had to sit for a long time. And I just. Caleb Williams, to me, the conf for him the whole time was everyone said Mahomes, but it's like, it's Aaron Rodgers. And that's not even the size, the way he plays off platform. A little personality wise. And then.
- [123:22]
Craig Horbeck
How dare you.
- [123:23]
Danny Heifetz
I'm just saying though. But it's not just me. Caleb Williams himself, if you ask him, he's like, I based my game off Aaron Rodgers, everything he does. And so how did Aaron Rodgers do a year and a half into his career? He didn't play.
- [123:32]
Bill Simmons
What was Heifetz's crazy prediction? What did you just have four minutes ago for your crazy prediction?
- [123:39]
Danny Heifetz
I had. You would take Drake May in two different categories. No, no, I had Joe Flacco go to the bench.
- [123:43]
Craig Horbeck
Oh, right.
- [123:44]
Bill Simmons
He, like Joe Flacco was going to nudge a healthy Joe Burrow out of the last two weeks of the season and now he's giving a passion discourse for why my crazy prediction was too crazy.
- [123:55]
Danny Heifetz
I actually forgot it was the craziest prediction because I actually kind of. The last three, I was like, damn, that's actually going to happen. I kind of, I feel like they got more realistic as they went through.
- [124:04]
Bill Simmons
Interesting. It was so non crazy. You forgot it was the crazy prediction category. Because it is crazy. Them benching Caleb Williams would be crazy, but I also wouldn't be like, oh my God, they bench Caleb Williams.
- [124:14]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah, mine's nuts. Yours is believable. Like that could happen.
- [124:18]
Bill Simmons
Well, yours is believable if Burrow's hurt though. If it's like Burrow can kind of limp around but we're going to throw him back in and Burrow and Flacco's playing well. They're not going to change it.
- [124:27]
Danny Heifetz
They said December for Burr, but they meant January. They're like being optimistic. But no, are you right about the Caleb thing?
- [124:32]
Craig Horbeck
Yeah. If Caleb blows some game to like the Bengals against Flacco throws four picks and it's a disaster. And it like moves the Bears to under.500. Maybe Ben Johnson gets a little fed up.
- [124:43]
Bill Simmons
See, I think he does it if he thinks they have a chance to actually be good. Because Swift has never run like this. I mean, yeah, I think he's the.
- [124:52]
Danny Kelly
Best he's ever run game of. Really good.
- [124:55]
Danny Heifetz
Yeah.
- [124:55]
Bill Simmons
But Dunesay is like a real number one, like legitimate guy. I like their team.
- [125:00]
Craig Horbeck
All their pieces are really good.
- [125:01]
Bill Simmons
I thought their defense was kind of awesome on Sunday. Now I know they're playing against the Saints, but they were hats on the ball.
- [125:07]
Danny Kelly
They make a lot of takeaways. Yeah.
- [125:08]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. I don't like their team. And then the, the emotional Dennis Allen.
- [125:12]
Danny Heifetz
Game ball after the speech and everything was good. I think Dennis Allen knowing Rattler's the whole roster strength and weaknesses. But also that was a weird game because Rattler and Rattler got displaced by Caleb at Oklahoma. And so the whole ego death that Rattler's gone through started with Caleb just came in and just immediately was electric. And Rattler had to leave like tail between his legs and go to South Carolina. But I think that's relatedly the combo of I think Rattler was pushing the ball a little bit because I do think subconsciously he was trying to prove something. And also Dennis Allen was just weirdly equipped to take advantage of all the holes in that team.
- [125:42]
Bill Simmons
All right, we're wrapping that up. So what do we call that draft? Know if we'll do it again?
- [125:47]
Craig Horbeck
I don't know. The mid, the midway draft? I don't know. Mid season draft.
- [125:51]
Bill Simmons
My guy was such a. That was like a mid season check in draft. Yeah. Danny, Danny, Craig, great to see you guys. You can listen to them on the fantasy football show, the ringer fantasy football show on all of our platforms. Good to see you all.
- [126:07]
Danny Heifetz
Thanks for having me.
- [126:08]
Danny Kelly
Thanks.
- [126:09]
Bill Simmons
That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Danny and Danny and Craig, thanks to Eduardo and Gahao as well. I will be back on this podcast on Thursday with some basketball and some football. Looking forward to it. Seeing it must be 21 plus on President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + on President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming Gamble problem called 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com call 888-797-7777 or visit ccpg.orgchatinconnecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York.
- [127:09]
Danny Heifetz
Start the season with Etsy and make.
- [127:11]
Bill Simmons
Your holiday traditions extra special. On Etsy, you'll discover original pieces from small shops that will help you celebrate your way. Shop Etsy for holiday decor that makes you feel seen. Special starts on Etsy Tap the banner to shop.
- [127:23]
Danny Heifetz
Now you know the words dominating today's headlines.
- [127:27]
Bill Simmons
Private equity, generative capital gains tax.
- [127:32]
Danny Heifetz
But do you understand how they impact.
- [127:34]
Bill Simmons
Your world and your wallet? In a world that skims the what, understanding the why? Because context changes everything. Subscribe@Bloomberg.com.