The Bill Simmons Podcast

October 10, 2025
Episode: Belichick’s ‘Legacy,' a Texas NBA Gauntlet, Boston’s 3 Party, Ja’s Big Season, and Week 6 NFL Picks
Guests: Kirk Goldsberry, Chris Vernon, Joe House

Episode Theme & Purpose

This jam-packed episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast covers three primary themes:

• Legacy in Sports, spotlighting Bill Belichick's embattled coaching tenure and the broader question of how we evaluate iconic figures after their peak years.
• NBA 2025-26 Preview, with a focus on the unprecedented prospect of all three Texas teams (Spurs, Rockets, Mavericks) being simultaneously relevant, and a deep dive into emerging trends, star players, and season-defining questions with NBA analyst Kirk Goldsberry.
• NFL Week 6 Picks, as Simmons, House, and Chris Vernon dissect the week’s betting slate in their infamous “Ringer 107” contest, sharing insights, banter, and some pointed debate on the reliability (or lack thereof) of the league's bad teams.

The episode is a must-listen for fans wanting contextual, often irreverent sports analysis, NBA nerd-outs, and some classic Ringer gambling camaraderie.

I. Bill Belichick’s “Legacy” Rant

(00:00–09:20)

Key Points & Insights

• Belichick in North Carolina
  Bill starts with a monologue on the relentless media scrutiny over Bill Belichick’s poor results at North Carolina, speculating this could quickly become another “Urban Meyer at Jacksonville” scenario. Simmons predicts, “I would bet that it’s probably headed toward an Urban Meyer Jacksonville. This was a bad idea. Let’s just get out of this.” (03:10)

• On ‘Legacy’ in Sports
  Simmons rails against legacy talk, emphasizing that the end of a sports career rarely erases the great accomplishments:

  “Nothing that happens to him at North Carolina, short of him pulling his pants down and tweaking on Fentanyl on the sidelines during an ACC game, is going to change everything he did when he was at the Patriots and all the stuff he did in the NFL. It doesn’t really matter.” (04:25)

  He lists historical analogs (MJ’s Wizards stint, Babe Ruth playing for the Braves, Vince Lombardi coaching Washington) and argues that fading late career stops never overshadow greatness.

• On the Brady–Belichick Dynamic Simmons pushes back at popular revisionism:

  “To say one deserved more credit than the other is just typical of sports media talk bullshit... They both won all those titles together. I don’t feel like either of them was that much more important than the other. They needed each other and that was that.” (06:40)

• Takeaway
  The current “pile-on” of Belichick misses the nuance of sports history. Greatness stands, whatever the final chapters.

II. NBA: The Texas Triangle & the State of the 2025-26 League

With Kirk Goldsberry
(09:20–50:29)

A. The Three Texas Teams: As Good As Advertised?

(09:27–15:21)

Simmons: 2025 is the first time since 2015 that Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas are credibly on the rise together.
Goldsberry: Highlights each team’s promising young core, points out real rivalries, and says:

“All three have a very, very exciting young player at the heart of the story right now... But then you have Wemby and Cooper Flag here in Texas as well. I think it just sets the stage not only for this season, but for the rest of the 2020s...” (11:09)

Key young stars:

• Spurs: Victor Wembanyama (“Wemby”)
• Mavericks: Cooper Flagg
• Rockets: Amen Thompson, with Sengun as a possible leap candidate

B. Deep Dives: Key Questions & Trends per Team

Houston Rockets

(15:21–18:21)

• Biggest loss: Fred VanVleet injury, Jalen Green’s departure
• Huge question at PG: Is Reed Shepherd ready? Is Amen Thompson ready?
• Offense-by-committee could get stagnant, but presence of Kevin Durant (“going for one last ride”) brings optimism
• Defensive concerns around Sengun debunked by last year's numbers

Notable Quote—Simmons:

“My fear with [Houston]... is this is not going to be a fun team to watch, even though they have all these players that I really like, because of how stagnant in my head they might be offensively...” (16:06)

San Antonio Spurs

(19:14–25:37)

• Spacing & shooting around Wemby is a big question—De’Aaron Fox now at PG brings hope, but Fox’s outside shot is suspect
• Wemby’s upside brings statistical “fun bets”: quadruple-double? 5x5 game?
• Cornet and Olynyk: “stretch” center depth
• Spurs’ long-term future arguably brightest because of Wemby’s superstar potential
• Wemby GM Survey:

  “If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any NBA player… Victor Wembanyama received 83% of the votes from the GMs.” (25:37)

Dallas Mavericks

(26:54–37:03)

• Defense will be elite: Cooper Flagg called a “genuinely, noticeably impactful” rookie, bordering on prodigy status
• Mavs will be “such a bitch to try to score against...” (29:10)
• Oddsmakers underrate them: Over/under at 41.5 “makes no sense”—both Simmons and Goldsberry agree Dallas is a top-4 seed threat
• Top-35 player as a rookie? It’s possible for Flagg:

  “I had him [Flagg] 34 [in Ringer 100], and by the way, I initially had him… in the 20s. And both [friends] had an intervention. They were like, ‘He’s never played a game! You can’t put him in the 20s!’... I don’t know, man. This is gonna be one of the most additive guys that has come into the league this century.” (30:38)

C. NBA League-Wide & Meta Discussion

(39:56–56:47)

• Apron rules and CBA “too harsh”; owners need a cap discount for re-upped draft picks
• Multiple participants express frustration at NBA’s slow pace to adapt fourth-quarter/tv timeout “game flow” problems

  • “If they figure out how to change the last three minutes to a way that’s actually fun to watch, I think it would have the same impact [as MLB speeding up],” says Simmons (42:59)

• Surprising “most promising young core”: Detroit makes the top four (but host confusion remains)
• Most unpredictable team: Philly with Embiid/Paul George—age curves, injury pessimism abound

  • “What are the odds? What is his [Embiid’s] over/under in your head? If you’re setting it for how many Games Joel Embiid [plays]? 35.” (46:40)

• Best home court edge: Denver (altitude) & OKC (crowd) split 43% each

D. Goldsberry’s Analytics-Driven NBA Trend to Watch

(50:30–55:57)

The Three-Point Rebounding Revolution:

“For the first time in NBA history, more rebounds are coming from missed three-point shots than missed two-point shots... If you’re teaching a young player to get rebounds, you’re teaching them how to rebound three-point shots, which is crazy.” (50:30)

• Changing the archetype for top rebounders: More speed+length, less “Moses Malone strength”
• Bigger impact of “math” & positioning on the game

E. Bill’s “Bold Trend” for 2025-26: Celtics’ Deranged Offense

(56:47–62:39)

• With Tatum out, the Boston Celtics could “average 55 threes a game”
• Derrick White/Peyton Pritchard/Sam Hauser as volume gunners:

  “I think the Celtics are going to be absolutely deranged this year on offense… I think it’s going to be like the run and shoot offense in the NFL.” (56:50)

• “Pritchard is 25/1 to hit the most threes this year... I think he could lead the league in threes.” (58:21)
• Expect Boston to shatter the all-time NBA record for threes attempted in a game (currently 63)

III. Ringer 107: NFL Week 6 Picks & Gambling Talk

With Joe House & Chris Vernon
(66:14–end)

A. Topical NFL Banter

• Chris Vernon joins Simmons and House for a three-way riff on injuries, the unpredictability of the league, and plenty of self-aware gallows humor about their betting record
• Quick-hit NBA notes: Celtics preseason (“Hugo Gonzalez is going to be really good right away” – Simmons’ dad, 66:14), Celtics’ rebounding issues, and the “Jalen Brown scoring champ” bet

B. Grizzlies Over/Under & NBA Player Durability

(70:16–79:40)

• Memphian Vernon rejects the 40.5 over/under as “appalling” if Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson are just modestly healthy
• Morant’s impact and injury history, capped by a fun stat-off:

  “Zion plus Ja Morant together: 523 combined games played. Embiid: 452.” (77:09)

C. NFL Week 6 Betting Touchpoints & Picks

(90:46–end)

• Picks & Arguments:
  • Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Lions: “Mahomes as a sub-field-goal favorite: 19–3 ATS” (106:17)
  • Panthers (+3) vs. Cowboys (Vernon protests this pick)
  • Broncos (-6.5) vs. Jets (London game): “Jets are absolutely abominable.” – Vernon (97:04)
  • Falcons (+4.5) at home vs. Buffalo (Simmons/House trust the Falcons at home, never again on the road)
  • Parlay: Colts ML + Patriots +1.5
• House and Simmons riff on their bad gambling luck: “There’s seven games where a team blew it near the end and it went the other way. Should at least go 2–5 in those, not oh and 7.” (121:18)

D. Light-hearted Closer

• Discussion of NBA rookie class hype, bobblehead giveaways (Wizards), and fan experiences
• Final pick recap and debrief of their process:

  “I like our process betting on bad teams. There’s only so many games to bet on.” (121:29)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “We don’t even understand how to talk about legacy. We don’t know what a legacy is.” – Bill Simmons (03:50)
• “All three have a very, very exciting young player at the heart of the story right now.” – Kirk Goldsberry (10:27)
• “Cooper Flagg…this is gonna be one of the most additive guys that has come into the league this century.” – Bill Simmons (30:38)
• “For the first time in NBA history, more rebounds are coming from missed three-point shots than missed two-point shots.” – Kirk Goldsberry (50:30)
• “I think the Celtics are going to be absolutely deranged this year on offense.” – Bill Simmons (56:50)
• “When John Morant plays, [the Grizzlies] win. When Jaren Jackson plays, [they] win.” – Chris Vernon (71:56)
• “Mahomes as a sub-field-goal favorite: 19–3 ATS.” – Joe House (106:17)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Belichick’s Legacy Rant: 00:00–09:20
• Texas NBA Gauntlet w/ Kirk Goldsberry: 09:27–50:29
  • Houston Analysis: 15:21–18:21
  • San Antonio Deep Dive: 19:14–25:37
  • Dallas Mavericks Spotlight: 26:54–37:03
  • League Trends & GM Survey: 39:56–56:47
• NBA Trends & Celtics Take: 56:47–62:39
• NFL & Ringer 107 Picks (w/ House & Verno): 66:14–end

Takeaways & Tone

• Original language and tone: Simmons’ usual blend of sports geekery, fan passion, and self-deprecating humor; Goldsberry brings stats sophistication; Vernon is energetic and local-centric; House is the dry-witted, gambling-practitioner anchor.
• Useful for the uninitiated: You’ll get full context on the NBA’s balance of power (especially in Texas), where NFL betting stands in midseason, and a healthy, critical perspective on legacy-building in sports.

Bottom Line:
A quintessential Bill Simmons episode—heartfelt nostalgia and perspective, real NBA analysis you won’t get anywhere else, plenty of arguments and laughs, and a true sports obsessive’s approach to betting, prediction, and hype.