The Bill Simmons Podcast (Nov 10, 2025)

Did the Pats Become the Bills? Is Stafford the MVP? Do the Jags Hate Their Fans? Plus Guess the Lines with Cousin Sal

Episode Overview

Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to recap a wild Week 10 in the NFL, focusing on the surging Patriots, the state of the AFC East, Matthew Stafford’s MVP case, the perplexing Jaguars, and their always-entertaining “Guess the Lines” segment. Throughout, they dig into specific team storylines, playoff implications, coaching developments, QB performances, and share their irreverent, banter-heavy analysis with a big serving of gambling talk.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Travel, Technology, and the Modern Fan ([00:00]–[04:25])

• Bill recounts his cross-country travel, marveling at modern conveniences like in-flight DirecTV and RedZone, and reminiscing about old-school portable TVs.
• Sal jokes about setting up a podcast in an airport lounge; they both revel in the ability to keep up on every game, even while traveling.
• Gambling luck while traveling: Bill laments his "traveling jinx," noting his bets never seem to hit when he's on the road.

Notable Quote

“We don’t appreciate enough how great all of this is. We really don’t.” — Bill Simmons ([03:46])

2. Recapping Week 10’s Sunday Night and Early Games ([04:25]–[07:14])

• Quick post-mortem on a bad Steelers loss: Rodgers looked immobile and the Steelers inept.
• Are the Ravens for real? Both wonder about the legitimacy of big AFC North teams, with Sal noting the Vikings’ “eight false starts and 13 penalties” against them.
• Playoff forecast: Uncertainty about who’s truly dangerous, but consensus that Vikings and Ravens are strong division favorites.

Memorable Sal Reaction

“I thought we’d have a few more cross offs today… I think we can only keep it to two.” — Cousin Sal ([06:52])

3. Are the Patriots the New Bills? Pats’ Hot Streak and Roster Talk ([07:14]–[15:30])

Patriots’ Rise

• Pats are 8–2, undefeated on the road, and have swept the NFC South.
  • Bill: “I did not think they were going to win today… all their rookies came through… they thoroughly beat Tampa.”
• Running game innovations: Sal notes trick plays and clock management, highlighting the coaching creativity.
• Drake May’s emergence as a star is discussed throughout, with injury risk being a lingering concern.

Division Landscape

• Pats division odds: already -240 to win the AFC East.
• Bill bristles at “weak schedule” takes, comparing it to the Colts’ equally soft schedule, wondering why Pats face the criticism and Indy doesn’t.

Quote

“This team really thinks it’s good. I think they believe in the coach and they believe in the quarterback.” — Bill Simmons ([12:37])

Tone

• Bill is cautiously optimistic (“I can’t tell how good this Pats team is”) but notes signs of a real contender, especially with QB development and strong defense.

4. Coach of the Year Odds and the Colts Debated ([15:30]–[17:25])

• Who’s the current front-runner: Vrabel or Shane Steichen?
• Bill argues Vrabel’s done more with less, given the Pats’ two consecutive 13-loss seasons and a youth infusion.
• Both laugh about low preseason expectations: “We didn’t have any hopes for Daniel Jones,” says Sal.

5. Colts, Daniel Jones, and Gritty QB Performances ([17:25]–[19:58])

• Sal highlights Daniel Jones’ toughness in the Germany game, including a “third and 21 run for 19 and banging his head.”
• Brief but recurring thread: which teams/QBs deliver “gritty” but maybe unsustainable wins.

6. The MVP Race – Stafford, Drake May, and Jonathan Taylor ([19:01]–[21:43])

• Who’s the MVP? Most agree Stafford is front-runner, with May in the mix.
  • Bill: “Stafford’s just been lights out week after week after week.”
  • Sal: points out Stafford just returned to .500 for his career (115-115-1), highlighting his “sympathetic” story arc.

Notable Quote

“You have 12 touchdowns in three weeks, you’re housing everybody. But I think next week will be the MVP test for him.” — Bill Simmons ([19:58])

7. Rams vs. Seahawks: “Best Teams in the League”? ([39:11]–[43:40])

• Both teams are dubbed legitimate NFC contenders: Rams are tough, physical, and have re-invented their offense; Seahawks are dominant by DVOA and racking up blowout wins.
• Bill cites both teams' impressive “legitimate wins vs. either/or games.”
• Debate: Who do you trust more, McVay’s Rams or Seattle?

8. AFC Playoff Picture – Are the Bills in Trouble? ([26:54]–[34:01])

• Buffalo looks sluggish; playoff spot not a guarantee.
  • Next tough stretch: vs. Tampa, at Houston, at Pittsburgh, home Cincy, at NE, at Cleveland, home Philly, home Jets.
  • Odds: +820 to miss playoffs.
• Offense concerns: “Nobody’s ever open on the Bills... he just doesn’t have people to throw to.” — Bill ([27:10])
• Miami blows out Buffalo, casting more doubt on the Bills' path.

9. Jags Collapse, Texans Rising? ([34:05]–[39:04])

• Wild finish: Jacksonville blows a huge lead to Houston.
• Texans’ defense and strategy praised; both contemplate their surprise wild card potential.
• Sal: “Nine and eight or ten and seven could be the playoffs… I know they have some crap in their schedule.”

10. Jaguars and “Bed Eggs” – Most Agonizing Losses ([37:22])

• Bill reads a Jags beat writer’s “top 5 worst losses since I've covered them,” calling this one #1.
• Gambling heartbreak is a recurring theme, with swings on late fumble returns.

11. Weekly Frustrations & League-Wide Observations ([47:09]–[54:56])

• Chicago, Denver, Washington as apathy-inducing messes.
• Announcer appreciation: Bill notes Tony Romo’s revived form as a commentator ([24:21]).
• “There is a Letdown. Now, if you lose. I'm sorry.” — Sal to Bill, re: Boston sports fans’ perpetual good luck ([13:23])

12. Running the “Guess the Lines” Gauntlet ([69:10]–[89:32])

• Bill and Sal run down the points spreads for Week 11, featuring extensive banter, sharp opinions, and perennial gripes (Jets/Browns games, bad QB play, “Vegas zone” lines).
• Debate over which teams are cross-offs, which lines are traps, and why Monday Night Football often feels “sad.”
• Standout: Bill calls Seahawks-Rams “the single best game of the year so far” ([46:31]).

13. Parent Corner – Family, Football, and Fritos ([91:00]–[99:40])

• Sal tells two anecdotal stories: his father's embarrassing rendition of “50 Ways to Leave Your Lover” (“...pleasure lover...”), and his wife’s “Steelers bar sprinter van tailgate” ordeal for his son's fandom.
• Bill shares about his daughter's soccer playoff ouster, train ride viewing of a "Shiv Roy” miniseries, and the bittersweet realization of kids growing up and missing holidays.

Highlight

“Never pass a bathroom without going in and never leave a heart on unattended.” — Uncle Ricky, as quoted by Bill ([95:49])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bill on modern fandom:
  “We don’t appreciate enough how great all of this is.” ([03:46])
• Sal, exasperated by the Pats’ luck:
  “All you do is date supermodels… for like, four months in the middle, there was an Adrian from Rocky one, you know, like, all right, she has potential. That was Mac Jones. But there you go right back.” ([13:23])
• On Stafford’s redemption:
  “He dug himself out of the biggest hole in history, being the Lions quarterback for so many years.” — Sal ([20:26])
• On Miami's zig-zagging results:
  “That has to be some sort of record — four straight games, 17 points plus or minus each result.” — Bill ([29:05])
• On QBs who don't slide:
  “Every Giants fan I know is like, Dart's fucking amazing, we just gotta make sure we can keep him out of the blue tent.” — Bill ([53:53])
• Uncle Ricky’s legendary advice:
  “Never pass a bathroom without going in and never leave a heart on unattended.” — Bill ([95:49])
• On Tony Romo’s broadcast style:
  “He can predict a lot of this shit. I think he could hit on like, 85 percent of it. It’s how much he wants to expose.” — Sal ([24:45])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Pats as AFC contenders & schedule debate: [08:58]–[15:30]
• MVP race, Stafford vs. May: [19:01]–[21:43]
• Bills’ collapse & odds to miss playoffs: [26:54]–[34:01]
• Jags-Texans meltdown recap: [34:05]–[39:04]
• Rams & Seahawks discussion: [39:11]–[43:40]
• Guess the Lines begins: [69:10]
• Parent Corner: [91:00]–[99:40]

Structure & Tone

• Style: Deeply conversational, loaded with firsthand sports-watching observations, gambling analysis, and irreverence.
• Tone: Self-deprecating, arch, insider-y; Bill leans optimistic about his teams, Sal playfully needles those fortunes and brings a more everyman, skeptical vibe.

Final Takeaways

• The Patriots’ turnaround is real, and their young QB/culture has given fans new hope.
• Matthew Stafford is the current MVP favorite, with narrative, stats, and performance converging.
• Bills are suddenly vulnerable, with offense sputtering and a tough remaining slate.
• AFC playoff field is crowded and fluid; the NFC is Seattle/Rams/Philly/Detroit’s to lose.
• The weekly “Guess the Lines” segment remains a gambling crowd-pleaser for fans who like to keep score at home.
• As always, the pod is as much about the life of a sports fan as about games themselves.