← The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Five NBA Trade Ideas, a Sleeper NFL Playoff Team, Eagles-Packers, and Week 10 Picks With Joe House
01:34:25
Loading summary
Transcript559 lines
- [00:00]
A
This episode is sponsored by Anthropic, the team behind Claude. Every sports fan has debates. Should your team rebuild? Do the analytics miss what makes players great? Well, that's where Claude comes in. AI that thinks through problems with you. Analyzing complex data, researching historical trades, working through complexity step by step to help understand the real why behind roster moves. Try Claude for free at Claude AI Simmons and see why the world's best problem solvers choose Claude as their thinking partner. The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network where I have a new rewatch coming for you. On Monday it was me and Sean Fennesee and Van Lathan and we did Snake eyes, the Brian DePalma movie with Nick Cage that is just a time capsule of what it was like movies in the late 90s just to kind of the kind of chances they took. And also movies that were less than 100 minutes. So great times all around. We cut out a piece of that podcast that we ended up running on this podcast on Tuesday if you missed it coming up today. So House is going to come on as always on Thursdays to do NFL pick but picks. But Picasso had to go into the art studio and do some trade machine work. There's a lot of unhappy teams. I don't know what's going on with John Morant. Even though it is November 6th, it's feeling very trade whiffy. So we are going to make up some fake trades. Well, I made up some fake trades, I'm going to throw them in house and then we're going to talk about the NFL slate ringer 107 complicated week. It's all next. We're going to take a break then Pearl Jim this episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like needing the protection of an offensive guard on the football field. But getting an elementary school crossing guard. Sure they're both guards, but you can only trust one to keep your quarterback safe when the game is on the line. So don't settle for just any insurance when you can have State Farm like a good neighbor. State Farm is there. All right, we're recording Mid afternoon East coast time. I'm on the East Coast. Went to the Celtics game yesterday. Joe House is here. We'll talk NFL a little bit later. Lot of stuff. This is a good House Simmons pod because it's just NBA. NFL. Just a. Just a vortex. I went to the Celtic game last night. I saw your terrible Wizards team. Not that the Celtics were Much better. And you know, the trade machine Picasso has, has definitely bought his easel and bought some paint and bought some brushes once the John Moran news happened. But going to that Celtic game yesterday, the wheels started turning. I don't really know what the point of this Celtic season is. I don't mean to be a dick. It's fine. Jalen Brown's good. Derrick White's good. Simons is okay. Pritchard is okay. Kate has been fun. He's a double double guy. You won money on that yesterday. But it's probably a below.500 team. And the question is, what's the point? And if Tatum is going to be out, maybe with this legendary draft class, maybe you start audibling. And that got me thinking about trades house. And here's the problem. Really hard to make trades this year. The new cba. First apron, second apron, big contracts, teams that just like, we can't take more money. It's actually against the rules for us to add even $1. Is this good? Because I was arguing with Bobby Marks about this today on Text. Bobby Marks, like, the league is. He said this on espn. The league's in better shape. This is all good. We have a better balance now. I feel like a lot of teams are stuck with who they are. What do you see?
- [04:14]
B
Well, you have to define good. What, what goal are you seeking to achieve with the parody that is the, the. The. The world that we live in right now?
- [04:29]
A
I mean, if you're Adam Silver, what's your goal? Or like the league, like, what do you think their goal was? You think it was just parity across the board and no high payrolls and that's it?
- [04:38]
B
Yes, yes. Parody above all else. Not that dissimilar from the NFL where a team like Washington can be really bad for a number of years. Luck into something in a lottery, in a draft, get a franchise changing quarterback and then make it to the NFC championship game. Or a team like New England, which has been bad for four or five years, gets a great addition in a draft, and all of a sudden New England not just a playoff threat, but potentially, you know, it's okay for the.
- [05:17]
A
Good people to dream.
- [05:19]
B
Let me hear it.
- [05:20]
A
If you get your quarterback, you can still spend money around him and you can still push money forward into the future and pay for shit. You can do what KC has done. And like, Casey was trying to trade for Breeze hall at the trade deadline. How do they have money to do anything? I look at some of these basketball teams, and I like, the Knicks and Cleveland are the Two best teams in the East. They also can't make any sort of trade that would improve whatever situation they have now, which maybe that's a good thing. I don't know.
- [05:46]
B
They made the trades. I mean the Knicks made four trades, five trades like franchise altering Mikhail Bridges, Cat acquiring Brunson, stealing Brunson away from the Mavericks in, you know, convincing Brunson to take an under market deal. Like that's how you build up a nucleus that that's competitive.
- [06:09]
A
Well, most teams have not done that. And also the way they sprung these rules where instead of saying these are going to start three years from now, they just kind of, they just kind of jump started it. And I, I just, I look around and it's not just that I see teams that are probably upset about where they are kind of stuck with their roster or whatever, but I also don't see a lot of options for fixing it. And that's what's, that's what I don't.
- [06:31]
B
Remember before what needs fixing. Like you don't like the way that, that the west lines up competitively with Houston. Denver. Houston is a city they can still get that point guard. They have an asset in the form of Fredman bleeds contract sitting right there for a team that has guards, you.
- [06:55]
A
Know, and the problem is the guards are either really expensive or not quite expensive enough.
- [07:03]
B
That's a complaint about a guy getting hurt which happens, you know, in the NBA and the NFL and everywhere else.
- [07:09]
A
But one of the, but one of the things I was looking at is like the Lakers really just can't trade LeBron. He is no trade clause anyway. But even if they decided, you know what, we're having a better time without you, you don't really want to be here anymore because it's Lucas team now. Let's figure this out. There's nowhere for him to go. Like he can't go to the Knicks, he can't go to Cleveland because of the rules. And then I look at some of the other guys that are already available like Morant, I'm assuming, Trey, you've been on this Hawks thing. You love the Tuesday game when they look great without Trey Young. And it was like a little hey, look at us, look how long and happy and you were in on that.
- [07:48]
B
It wasn't me. It's just I wish that we had gambled on the over under of when the first stories about hey, we kind of have a chemistry here without Trey Young. Oh, it's so interesting.
- [07:59]
A
We still love Trey, but it's interesting that we can also play without him.
- [08:04]
B
Yeah. You knew that story was coming. I mean, I. That the first one hit immediately after that Orlando game. I loved it so much.
- [08:11]
A
So you. You seem like you like these new rules more than I do. I wish there was some sort of hybrid version of both of them. Like, I look at, for instance, Your team has CJ McCollum and Chris Middleton, who I got to watch in person last night. In Middleton, whatever life he's leading this year is just the ideal life. He's making like 33 million. He kind of jogs around, takes a couple threes, pats some dudes on the back, and I guess they're just going to buy him out in February, but they can't really trade him. They can't trade McCollum. McCollum's a guy that, you know, is still a good offensive player. He's going to be on the team and get bought out in February because nobody's going to trade for him. And I don't know if that's. I don't know if that's a good cba, if you have situations like that.
- [08:53]
B
Yeah, don't, don't, don't fill in the blanks. I like a version of the NBA where trades are possible. I mean, we've been living, you and I, nobody better than you, but I've enjoyed it along the way as well. 25, 30 years of imagining trades to improve teams along the way along, you know, on the fly. And quite a bit of the way that I've enjoyed the NBA over the years is getting through the first month of the season. Okay, now that we have that under our belts, let's really sort of start seeing what kind of moves can be made, what kind of stuff is out there, how can teams get better? Who's.
- [09:30]
A
Now we're two weeks in. Now it's two weeks in. It's like eight teams that would immediately make a trade if they could, but.
- [09:36]
B
That if you can't make the trade, then that's not a good version of the NBA. In my humble opinion, the trades are an elemental part because, you know, this. This version of the NBA, as has been talked about sort of ad nauseam over the last 12 months. People don't watch the NBA like I'm watching the games, and then I'm going to talk about the games afterwards. Everybody's already in some conversation where the games are secondary to the ongoing narrative of the league. The games give us some. Some color for us to talk about. Like, how about the Chicago effing Bulls? How About Josh effing giddy. That's, that's, that's great stuff. Um, but it's not crucial that I sit and watch the Bulls from the beginning of the game to the end of the game. I don't have to watch the game at all.
- [10:23]
A
Well, so like baseball, my team needs a left handed reliever. Let's just go get one and then you go get one. Right. Football, you. Even though the cap seems pretty prohibitive, it seems like teams can always kind of figure out how to add somebody if they really want somebody. The Colts really wanted a cornerback. Ah, fuck it, let's go get one. Basketball has lost a little bit of that. And yet I did find five trades that I really liked. I did not send these to you.
- [10:54]
B
I knew you did. I knew it. I knew it.
- [10:56]
A
Well, two of them have John Morant.
- [10:59]
B
Great.
- [10:59]
A
And the first one's pretty chalk. I think this one's probably floated around, but it's Miami and Memphis. You sent JA to Miami. You put KCP in the deal. Memphis takes back Hero and Rozier and you just call it a day. And Memphis basically turns JA into Hero and Rozier is expiring. Miami has to take on an extra year at kcp. They get ja, they roll the dice that JA can be turned into a superstar again. I thought the Durant stuff on court that got captured by video last night when he was going back and forth with Ja's dad and he's like, your guy doesn't want to be here past the weekend. And when the players are talking like that, that tells me this is a wrap. And there's really not a lot of spots for John. I also don't really know what his trade value is at this point with all the issues he's had and the lack of durability. Like, if you told me that two years ago, it's like, well, Miami's got to throw in three first and two swaps. It's like, I don't think they have to throw in anything. I think just getting Hero for Ja might might be enough. If you're Memphis right.
- [12:02]
B
It has to be that way. I mean, what, what reasonable expectation does Memphis already hit its draft pick lottery with the Bain trade and what they, what that creates for them. I don't blame, really blame Bain, to be honest with you, that I just.
- [12:20]
A
Just asking if you've saw his stats.
- [12:23]
B
The man's out on an island. It's not good.
- [12:28]
A
Anyway. Go ahead.
- [12:29]
B
Well, I like this. So it. The reason that Morant is, you know, a damaged Goods proposition is because what situation is going to work for him where he will come and play grown up like he's not. He won't be a grown up in Memphis. Memphis is a situation that I think, you know, that it's run by adults. I've always respected the acumen of the front office. I respected what they put in charge of coaching, and so he couldn't make it work there. Okay, so what are the situations where it might work? You can cross off literally 2/3, maybe 3/4 of the league, just cross it off. Like, there is not a world, you know, anywhere near the universe, the Milky Way we live in where he could come to a place like Washington and that would be a successful kind of situation. I mean, that. That is.
- [13:25]
A
So I think it's actually illegal in the cap for you guys to trade for anyone who's had some sort of gun incident in the past. I don't think We've served the 50 year sentence yet. No, I'm just.
- [13:33]
B
Still. Still feels too soon 20 years ago. Still feels too soon 25 years.
- [13:41]
A
When you talk about situations, it's not just like, oh, this team, he doesn't make sense in this market because this team's not that good. He'll run amok. Um, it's also, this team is doing really well. They wouldn't want to risk it just in case this goes sideways. And then the third group is teams that probably would take a chance on them, but they can't figure out how to make the trade. Like, I think the Clippers are a really good example of that.
- [14:04]
B
Yeah. So I, I would say I could.
- [14:05]
A
See the Clippers like, oh, James Harden and something else for John Morant.
- [14:09]
B
Right.
- [14:10]
A
Conceivably. But there's no way that trade happens and why would Memphis do that? So there's really. Miami is the one.
- [14:15]
B
Miami's very good. Miami's very good.
- [14:18]
A
Yeah. Because of the. He's definitely like, the ceiling of him is higher than Hero. You get out of having to pay Hero when his extension's coming up and then you hope, like, hey, if we can get Jazz head straight, we have him and BAM. Those are two of the best 25, 30 guys in the league.
- [14:33]
B
And Miami also has like an institutional thing. Like, you know, they'll get Alonzo Mourning, they'll get you, Donnis, Haslam, they'll get all the old heads with the, with the Miami lineage. They'll to come get in this. This. This kid's head to talk to the camp and be like, this ain't it. There's a way for you to make another $500 million. If you would like to make another $500 million over the course of your career, let's figure it out together as a team. You are now part of Heat culture. And there's a. There's a pathway to this, but you. You gotta. You gotta get right.
- [15:08]
A
There's one other team for him. I didn't make this one of my five trades, but just. I was thinking, if you're just talking about a bad team, there's a Brooklyn case. Oh, I think this. This draft that's coming up is so good. I don't think Brooklyn's going to do anything that will jeopardize them getting a top three pick. Cause you have. The Kansas kid might be the best guard prospect since Vince Carter, or even go back to Kobe. Like, that's potentially how good he is. Peterson and then Debanza and then Boozer's son, the power forward, Cam.
- [15:41]
B
Awesome.
- [15:41]
A
Cam. Boozer awesome. Those. Those three are all franchise guys. And if I'm Brooklyn, I'm doing nothing. I could get Ja over the summer if I have to, but. Sure, but that was the only team because I was thinking, like, man, just make him like the king of Barclays. He's obviously one of the coolest guys in the league, right? He's got the shoe and he's the whole. There's like street cred with him that Brooklyn just doesn't have. Brooklyn's, like, invisible. They couldn't be more relevant. They're the third most popular team in New York. And at least if you have Ja now, I can put somebody on the side of the building. And that would be the same case for Trey Young, by the way. But, yeah, Brooklyn's doing nothing because of this draft next trade. I do like that Miami trade. I'm kind of as somebody who hates the Heat, if that trade happened, I'd be like, fuck, they're going to fix John Morant. God damn.
- [16:30]
B
Yes, they could.
- [16:32]
A
The only other John Morant trade is in this team is in this next trade. And it's a three teamer. And of course, Trae Young has to be in it as well. Memphis gets Trey Young.
- [16:47]
B
Okay.
- [16:48]
A
Toronto gets John Morant.
- [16:51]
B
Okay.
- [16:52]
A
Atlanta gets. Quickly, Murray Boyles, the number one pick. They took. Yeah, Toronto and I protected like 29 first. Not like an unprotected, but like some. Some sort of other asset. And Memphis basically turns Miranta into Trey. And Trey goes in there. The Memphis fans will love him immediately, and maybe everybody's happy.
- [17:20]
B
So we can't have Morant to Atlanta and Trey to Memphis because Morant in Atlanta feels like a disaster. You agree with that?
- [17:33]
A
A disaster. Maybe off the court, and I think on the court, if I'm trading Trae Young and I'm not investing in him, it's because I really like these long guys that I want to build my team around Johnson and Reese Sachet and Daniels. Like this is. I want this to be my team. I don't want to bring in another point guard who's going to have the ball all the time. Yeah, but you turn John as some depth quickly is the sixth guy off the bench. Murray Boyle's another long guy. And that's just kind of how you spend the 50 million a year on Trae Young that you would have had to spend. You know what I mean?
- [18:04]
B
What's Atlanta get?
- [18:06]
A
That's what they would get. They would get quickly in Murray Boyles.
- [18:09]
B
Oh, I see. Okay. And what Memphis gets is Trey and what gets is Ja and that's it.
- [18:16]
A
And maybe. Maybe Memphis has to throw in a tiny bit extra because I don't know if. Do you think Trey and JA have equal trade value? I would say Trey's like a whiff higher right. At this point.
- [18:27]
B
Well, the problem is the contract expiring.
- [18:30]
A
Yeah, you're right. So maybe they're even.
- [18:32]
B
I think. I think they're pretty close to even.
- [18:34]
A
I like that idea for Toronto because they're just like kind of. They're a team of. They're like a movie of where there's no star for the poster.
- [18:43]
B
We. The North. Yes. Like a guy they can rally around. A guy that. That, you know, it's easy to say, oh, his situation. He was cheated out of. Out of his potential down there in Memphis. We're going to rally behind him. I do like the coach in Toronto. I think he's. He's. He's very good organizationally. You know, they move past Masai, which seems like the right move. They have to have some structure for Job to succeed. Seems like a town that he could work in. I kind of like it. Kind of like it.
- [19:22]
A
I kind of like it. If I'm Toronto, I don't do it, though.
- [19:25]
B
Why?
- [19:28]
A
I want to see what I have with this team a little bit longer. I think they're mildly intriguing. Like, did you see any of the game on Tuesday when they just housed the Bucks?
- [19:37]
B
Yes.
- [19:39]
A
They've had some moments this season that. And they're a.500 team, but they've had some moments where I'm like, huh, I get it. Yeah, I kind of understand. And maybe, maybe there's a better trade for them in December, January.
- [19:53]
B
But that's a lot of wattage. You know what I mean? Like, that kind of a guy that's on the precipice of a super duper star kind of thing. He was going to have a whole shoe line. He was going to have all of it. How are you getting that?
- [20:06]
A
Toronto And Vernos seems like he doesn't even have the answer to this either. Why is John Moran unhappy this year? Like, wait, should, shouldn't he be trying to prove himself to Memphis? Something seems like there's some communication issue.
- [20:22]
B
That wasn't resolved when they fired Tayo Jenkins. It. It just didn't get fixed.
- [20:26]
A
It's been two years of this.
- [20:27]
B
It feels like it's been going on for a long time.
- [20:31]
A
Third trade. This goes back to what I was saying with the Celtics at. I hate saying this. And this has been floating around for six weeks.
- [20:42]
B
Okay.
- [20:43]
A
And I've resisted. I actually think they should probably trade Derrick White. And I love Derrick White. Like, I. He's an awesome Celtic. I don't want to trade Derrick White, but this team is like just good enough that they're going to screw up their pick. They have all of the, all of the reasons to just kind of just be one of the five worst teams in the league. Like, they're really close. They can't rebound. K is like incredibly important. If he's not in the game, they completely fall apart. They have like a small lineup. They play with Josh Minot. That's kind of fun. Who's been a revelation as like, you know, a dirt cheap guy. Bench. Although now he's starting and they just kind of live and die by threes. But he's, you know, he's going to be 32 later in the season and you know, by the time Tatum comes back, I just. It's the one where I'm like, why wouldn't they? If somebody was willing to really go after him, how do you not think about it? Because you're not only getting assets, but you're making the team worse, which is kind of where you maybe want to be. Like, they're playing like Luka Garza and, you know, Shireman. They're playing guys who are just not NBA rotation guys, I don't think. And Jalen's been really good. Like Jalen, you know, the question was, could he be a true number one? Like, he really can.
- [22:02]
B
But can you explain me something with him?
- [22:06]
A
The Hair thing. I don't.
- [22:07]
B
Why is he painting on the hairline?
- [22:09]
A
I think to get attention.
- [22:10]
B
I'm so excited. Washington wore jersey. Wore the striped jerseys because we couldn't see the painted on hairline.
- [22:17]
A
I know I don't shave his head. Well, here's my Derek White trade. And it's a trade that has been floated around for two months.
- [22:23]
B
Okay.
- [22:24]
A
But I think the trade's a little different than maybe it was two months ago. He goes to Houston. He goes with Thoman's expiring. And the Celtics get Van Vuitt, and they get Tar Eason, who's been awesome this season. And they get Phoenix's 2027 first. And look, if Houston doesn't want to do that, then there's no trade. But I think that's the price.
- [22:49]
B
That's a stiff price.
- [22:50]
A
They could turn Derrick White into Eason in that Phoenix pick. And you're the Celtics. You kind of have to do that. I don't know how you say no to that.
- [22:57]
B
Well, that's a triple, double, triple, triple, double win for Boston. You kidding me? That 2027 Phoenix pick Antar Easton, respectively.
- [23:08]
A
Get the fuck out of Houston.
- [23:10]
B
That's outrageous. All right, but if you're Houston, Easton and that pick.
- [23:15]
A
Right, but that's my price up on Boston. So what do you do if you're Houston?
- [23:20]
B
Something that costs a lot less than that.
- [23:23]
A
So you say, no way.
- [23:24]
B
Yes, yes. No way.
- [23:26]
A
Houston's close to winning the title this year.
- [23:28]
B
Yeah. Tari Easton's an important part of that. Like, he gives.
- [23:32]
A
You gotta give up something to get something.
- [23:33]
B
I understand that. But that. That pick is. Is crazy valuable. The 27 Suns pick and Tari Eason is very valuable to him. And the FVV contract is. Is, you know, a movable part for somebody.
- [23:49]
A
Yeah, it goes this year and then next year. So you. So would you do Eason and a lesser pick than the Phoenix pick? I don't know, because now I'm not doing it from Boston. I'm only trading Derek White. If you've blown me away.
- [24:04]
B
I get that part that. That part resonates. I understand it. But where Houston is right now and the way that they're playing, Houston looks scary.
- [24:14]
A
Easton's like, playing awesome. So the Rockets fans are listening to this and be like, fuck you, we're not trading tires. I just said that, and I don't blame you. Yeah, so how said that.
- [24:21]
B
Houston fans.
- [24:22]
A
I'm just saying that's the price for Derek White. And if they can't get something like that I'm keeping them.
- [24:27]
B
Okay, that's fine. Good luck. You're going to keep them. And the most important eighth pick in.
- [24:33]
A
A three player draft, next trade. Oh, you're going to love this because your team's involved.
- [24:41]
B
Oh, boy, here we go.
- [24:45]
A
Philadelphia gets Chris Middleton and C.J. mcCollum.
- [24:50]
B
Okay, fine.
- [24:52]
A
Washington gets two and a half years of Paul George, Eric Gordon and Jared McCain. Okay, so you take Paul George for the next almost three years. He becomes your Khris Middleton this year. But just for three years and you get McCain out of it. That's the tax.
- [25:12]
B
It's worth it. It's worth it. I would do that.
- [25:14]
A
You would do this?
- [25:15]
B
Yes, yes. I think, I think McCain is extraordinary. What we. The problem that you have with McCain is now, you know, two consecutive years with these, with this injury stuff. Is this a persistent, Is this a trait or is it a bug?
- [25:37]
A
Bad luck.
- [25:37]
B
Yes, exactly. You have to make that determination. But talent wise for a young player of his caliber. There's nobody on Washington as good as Jared McCain and there's nobody coming down the pike to Washington that's as good as Jared McCain. Now I am, I'm, I'm sitting here enjoying Mr. Saar, you know, you got to see him last night. He's got some skill. There's some skill there.
- [26:07]
A
Here's my scouting report. Really, really promising. Stretch five like kind of a dead eye, three point shooter. Yeah, I thought it was going in every time he took it. He's got size. I wouldn't say he's a great rebounder, but he's not bad. I didn't really see him be able to put the ball on the floor at all and really do anything. So I. Basically he's. I think he becomes a better shooting. Miles Turner would be my guess for him down the road. Right. That was my takeaway. Watching him for two and a half hours last night, it's like Miles Turner and Serge Ibaka had a baby. Basically.
- [26:46]
B
Just have to remember he's 20. Like we're getting a lot of evidence that there is NBA skill there.
- [26:53]
A
No, he's the opposite of a bust. You should feel good about Sar.
- [26:56]
B
I do. I do feel good about him.
- [26:58]
A
I have really no idea what's going on with the guards.
- [27:04]
B
Neither do they.
- [27:06]
A
Like bub Carrington. Seems like he'll be in the league for a little while. But he's not a starting point guard.
- [27:13]
B
Nope.
- [27:14]
A
I don't know why they would ever in a million years play him and Trey Johnson together. That was really confusing. Trey Johnson, I texted you. His nickname should be Drive Through. Everybody was just going by him like it was just going in, get a cheeseburger, keep going. But he's somebody that. We know who he is. He's going to be like a scorer, but on that team, everybody wants the ball and it's just, it's a bad fit for him. Yeah, yeah.
- [27:36]
B
God forbid somebody like BJ Edgecomber, Ace Bailey, you just.
- [27:42]
A
Yeah, you just missed it. Well, Sar, looks like that Sar thing worked out, right?
- [27:47]
B
Yeah.
- [27:47]
A
I think if we redraft that draft, he's. They probably take them again. So you. Do you think Philly would do that? Because I guess it depends on how good you think McCain is and how desperate you are to get rid of the Paul George contract. They might be like, we're fine with the Paul George contract. We'll just pay it.
- [28:05]
B
Yeah. I mean, the calculus for Philly is can we have this team going forward with both Embiid and, and Paul George and the success of the team kind of depends on both those guys mining their manners for a little while.
- [28:22]
A
Maybe not even play because really.
- [28:24]
B
Yeah, both of them should shut the fuck up. Like, neither one of them should talk about anything having to do with, you know, career. And they're. They don't. They have no contribution to make to this iteration of the Sixers other than to play the, the, the role player thing that, that Embiid is playing. I mean, his inefficiency right now cost them the game against Cleveland. They have him perfectly set up to play in this role where it's. It should be about 25 minutes. He gets shot, but he took 21 shots. He took six fucking three pointers. He was one for six from three point land. And they let the Cleveland Cavaliers come back from, from 20 some points down. That's bullshit. That's not who. They shouldn't. It shouldn't be permissible. They have a hard strategy thing to solve because Joel Embiid, we signed him to this giant extension. He's a 22 to 26 minute player a night who, who should be able to come in off the bench and give you 16 to 20 because of the skill that he has.
- [29:33]
A
Well, he's basically late 2000s. Andrew Bynum, sure. Big guy that comes off the bench, he can carry the offense for six minutes, hopefully, but maybe in crunch time, you don't want him out there because he's.
- [29:44]
B
So you have that role filled. What's the Paul George role? Do you start him? You have to start them.
- [29:51]
A
The thing with the Sixers and all of their fans would say this is, they just want to watch VJ and, and Maxi and they want to see the team go up and down and they know the team's identity is and these two guys that are in the way of that identity, I don't think Paul George can play that way anymore. Me either. So if you're them, it's like h, maybe we're selling high in McCain. He wasn't even a lottery pick. He was my favorite favorite pick in the draft.
- [30:17]
B
Yeah. You know him from Southern California, right?
- [30:20]
A
Yeah, I loved him in high school. I think he's, you know, I, I think he's a real dude. But he played really well for a couple weeks to start the season, got hurt. So, you know, maybe you're selling high in that and it's a way to get out of the Paul George thing. I don't know. I think Philly would ultimately probably say no to that. But I think your team, that's the kind of trade they should be thinking, totally take your terrible contract. We have these two expirings. You can get out of jail with whatever you have and give us an asset to do this.
- [30:47]
B
I didn't hesitate. I said, yeah, I know. Please.
- [30:50]
A
For the record, my fifth trade is the my favorite one and I'm going to give it to you. Let's go right after this break. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by fanduel. Your Friday nights just got a ladder. NBA Happy hour happening on FanDuel every Friday from 6 to 7:30pm Eastern. FanDuel's got limited time specials to pregame the weekend boost, bonuses, surprises, all live in the app. So on Friday for instance, Houston is playing San Antonio. I think San Antonio is in some trouble because they lost Dylan Harper, they don't have Darren Fox yet, and the lack of an actual point guard I think is starting to hurt them a little. Houston's got a lot of size. I like Houston that game, but you could bet on that. Bet on whatever you want. NBA Happy Hour every Friday from 6 to 7:30 Eastern only on FanDuel. Official sportsbook partner of the NBA. Visit FanDuel.com BS to get started. Let's be 21 + presidents in select states or 18 + in president in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in Required rewards are non withdrawable. Restrictions apply including bonus and token expiration, leg requirements and max wager amount. See terms at supportsbook.fanduel.com gamble problem. Call 1-800- Gamble or visit rg-help.com call 1 888-78-9777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Shakey's, the people's Pizza Parlor. When it's game day, it's group day at Shakey's Pizza. Nothing beats piping hot pizza, a pitcher of ice cold beer, and rooting for your favorite team with your pals at Shakey's Pizza Parlor. I have done this. I'm going all in with Shakey's ultimate meat pizza, golden fried Chicken, Legendary Crispy mojo potatoes. And you can order it online@shakeys.com or watch the game of your neighborhood. Shakey's with handcrafted pizza, chicken and mojos. Turn football fantasy into reality at Shakey's, the people's pizza Parlor. My fifth trade is my favorite one out of all of them. But we're gonna do it right after this break. Our friends from FanDuel. They put NBA fans in control right from tip off, allowing us to choose our own reward. Before you place your bets, check out the FanDuel Sportsbook app. Choose your own reward that best fits your betting style. So for choose your own reward, I'm choosing my starting five. So far this season, the players that have impressed me knocked my socks off the most to date. I thought we could do this together. Giddy has to be number one.
- [33:06]
B
Number one. Put him up there.
- [33:08]
A
I'm so proud. I was like so few of us like that. Like the Giddy Caruso trade for Chicago. I just always like menace.
- [33:17]
B
Win, win an amazing win, win one.
- [33:19]
A
Of the better trades. Yeah, it was almost better trade George Hill trade.
- [33:23]
B
I think if you go back, anybody wants to go back and listen to the podcast of Bill Simmons and people from the ring are talking about that trade. I think everybody was very like, hey.
- [33:32]
A
That'S a good trade. Yeah. All right. So Giddy one, I gotta say I really like Saar. I think I, I would put him in my starting five. I think that's. If you have a 20 year old say that.
- [33:46]
B
But you don't have to do that because I'm sitting here, there's been some.
- [33:49]
A
Other guys, 20 year old, seven foot one guy who can make six threes in a game. Like that's not nothing.
- [33:54]
B
That's not nothing. I agree. It's hard to say when like a team that doesn't win any basketball games.
- [34:02]
A
I don't know, it's really hard to get him playing with a point guard. By the way, you're, you're my favorite guy in the wiz is Kispert. That guy should be on a winning team at some point in his life.
- [34:12]
B
Tremendous.
- [34:12]
A
A winning player.
- [34:13]
B
Tremendous trade.
- [34:14]
A
Shame to waste him on that team.
- [34:15]
B
Very underrated golfer. He's a. He's excellent. He thinks he's the second best golfer in the NBA behind Steph Curry. Wow.
- [34:23]
A
He does tar Eason's my third guy.
- [34:26]
B
Eason. Is he really a revelation? He's established himself.
- [34:31]
A
Shooting 55% from 3. I would say yes. I guess threes like that.
- [34:35]
B
I get that point. But all I'm saying is like he's already in a certain class.
- [34:40]
A
Well, they're asking me. They said there was no criteria. I'm looking at the fanduel rules here.
- [34:45]
B
Let me, let me think.
- [34:46]
A
Have been awesome. How about.
- [34:48]
B
How about. Well, let you finish because I maybe already have a guy. Maybe you already have this guy.
- [34:53]
A
Who?
- [34:54]
B
The Jake Larabia guy. You don't think for the Lakers.
- [34:59]
A
The snowtime Lakers.
- [35:01]
B
Yes, yes.
- [35:03]
A
Part of the mayonnaise boys.
- [35:04]
B
There you go. Now we're talking protein cup.
- [35:09]
A
That's good. And I'll do Cedric Coward as my fifth one because I really like that guy.
- [35:14]
B
Love him.
- [35:15]
A
No matter how you play, Fando's giving you the power to choose your reward. Own your game this NBA season. Make your choice now. My fifth trade, my favorite one. You mentioned the Bulls earlier and I intentionally held you off. They've been really fun to watch and it dates back to last year. We talked about it when we did the over unders. The over under was like 32 and a half. We didn't understand it because they were so good down the stretch. They didn't really lose anybody and we figured bou zelos would be better. What's interesting is all of it. They're 6 and 1 and Giddy's been basically a triple double this season. They're shooting the lights out. They have actually defense on the swing spots now. Jones has come in as a backup point guard and the guy that hasn't played yet is Kobe White who is in the final year of $12 million deal. You know who needs a point guard? House? Well, there's a few teams but I would say Minnesota is leading the way.
- [36:09]
B
Oh, wow. Yes, they do need a point guard.
- [36:14]
A
Chicago has a big ass trade exception that can make some funkiness with their trades in a good way. It's one of the few teams that with these modern rules they can get pretty creative. They can take Kobe White. They could add somebody to him. They could take somebody back who makes more money than him. They have a Lot of flexibility. But if you send them to Minnesota, a team that desperately needs a point guard, and you take back DeFincenzo and Rob Dillingham and call it a day. I think I would do that if I was both teams.
- [36:52]
B
What's in it for Chicago defense?
- [36:55]
A
Another swing man shooter. He can get the Kevin Herder minutes or maybe share the Kevin Herder minutes or whatever. And then you're rolling the dice with Dillingham, hoping that down the road he's more of an asset. Maybe you can get more from Kobe White, I don't know. But he's in an expiring deal making 12.
- [37:15]
B
I mean, is Kobe White going to play better than Trey Jones?
- [37:19]
A
I mean, the way Trey Jones has been playing. I don't know.
- [37:21]
B
That's what I was saying.
- [37:22]
A
He's a good player, though. I mean, he averaged 19, 20 a game over.
- [37:25]
B
Over 29 minutes. Trey Jones is, you know, isn't he 85 cents on the dollar. Kobe White.
- [37:31]
A
Well, well. Cause the other, the other way to go is you could talk to Houston about, see if they're interested in Rich Guy Reid, try to do a little Reed shepherd, some other contract, send them back. Kobe Jones, Kobe White. Kobe White.
- [37:50]
B
Not Trey Jones. Tre Jones and Kobe White.
- [37:52]
A
Well, you said Jones. I screwed up. I don't know.
- [37:54]
B
Trey. Trey's right there.
- [37:55]
A
Kobe Jones was a really good soccer player in the mid-90s.
- [37:58]
B
Okay.
- [37:59]
A
Houston's another thing. But I think Kobe Jones is a. Is a live trade. Kobe White and I think Kobe White's a live trade asset right now. And Kobe White, I think Kobe White's live on the trade machine.
- [38:15]
B
I do like this a lot. Kobe White, underrated and this Bulls team getting better. The only question I have is like, is divincenzo, like, how's he fit with what this Bulls team is trying to do?
- [38:29]
A
Maybe that's not enough. I had a lot of trouble with Minnesota because they don't really have any picks that you could do. Swap stuff with them. I was just trying to figure out a way to get him there because if I'm Chicago, I'm now in a car keys situation. Yeah, like I've struck oil with Josh Giddey. This is not a sample size. This guy is dominating games. He's getting like even like a crunch time. He's getting where he wants on the court and creating what shot he wants. Like you've got something really special happening here. And I don't want Kobe White coming. I'm not going to pay him next year. I'd Rather put my. My chips into the giddy basket and I would. I would try to trade them.
- [39:08]
B
Well, I mean, especially like Bouzelis is everything you hoped he could be. Mother effort.
- [39:13]
A
We were talking about that in the over unders. We were hoping it was sitting there for him.
- [39:17]
B
47% from the field. Over. 42% from three.
- [39:21]
A
Yeah.
- [39:22]
B
Over.
- [39:22]
A
Very comfortable.
- [39:24]
B
Oh, he's a professional basketball player in the NBA.
- [39:27]
A
Well, the thing with them, when you watch them, and I've really enjoyed watching them all year, is multiple guys who can beat somebody off the dribble and kick out or go to the basket, and they're just really hard to defend because you're always kind of going backwards. And Kobe White fits into that, so they might decide we're just better off keeping him. But I think when you have a $12 million point guard and expiring contract in a league where nobody can make a trade, that's a really good asset. Maybe defincenzo and Dillingham is not enough, I guess. Dillingham, he was the eighth pick in the draft and Minnesota gave up an unprotected 2032 first for him. So I would assume he's an asset. He's only 20 and it's the one asset they really have at this point. So whether that's a fair trade or not, I don't know. But the Kobe White thing, I'm really watching to see what they do. We've never seen Chicago spend money. They've been happy to go 40 and 42 every year, not pay the luxury tax. That's who they've been for 15 years. But they have a chance to.
- [40:23]
B
It's really fun.
- [40:24]
A
They also, if they wanted, they could take Kobe and a couple of their bigger contracts and go after expensive guy.
- [40:32]
B
But who's like an expensive guy that we think is.
- [40:34]
A
Is like a guy in the 40s. 50 million range. Like a. Like a real. A guy.
- [40:40]
B
But the.
- [40:40]
A
Who I'm not going to say a Jaylen Brown, but like a Jaylen Brown.
- [40:43]
B
Not.
- [40:43]
A
Not actually Jaylen Brown.
- [40:45]
B
Not. Not Jaylen Brown.
- [40:46]
A
Not actually Jaylen Brown. Like unless they wouldn't.
- [40:49]
B
Nobody wants to mess with Sabonis, right?
- [40:52]
A
Sabonis isn't Sabonis for Chicago. No. That I think they would improve the wings if they did anything that Patrick Williams, Okoro. Those kind of guys. But fun team to watch. All right, that's it for the trade machine. We're moving to NBA. Any other basketball before we go. Any other basketball takes. You want to get off?
- [41:12]
B
No.
- [41:12]
A
You believe in this Lakers thing yet.
- [41:15]
B
How can you not? I mean I'm super proud of myself. I stared at it for so long last night. The only basketball take for me to get off is I've started playing moneyline parlays. I went, I stayed away from last night. The slate didn't line up for it. But the game I stared at long and hard was that Lakers San Antonio game. Because I really wanted to bet the Lakers and I'm glad that I stayed away from it. But you know, I understand, but it's like that would have been too nerve wracking just, you know that, that late at night. I don't, I don't need.
- [41:48]
A
San Antonio's in a rough spot without point guards here. You know, they don't have Fox yet and they lost Harper and I just, they feel like they're a ball hand for short. I thought, I watched a lot of that Phoenix game and I thought about that Phoenix did work some stuff against them and all of a sudden they seem very stagnant to me and they just need those guys back. I'm monitoring San Antonio because when they get all these guys back, I think they're going to go rocket ship.
- [42:15]
B
Okay. All right.
- [42:18]
A
Football. I sent you. We are right in the as we try to figure out Ringer 107 picks, we're right in the exact part of the season when everybody thinks they know who the playoff teams are going to be and yet somebody comes out of nowhere and somebody has a swoon and sometimes it's one team in each conference where it happens. So I mailed you all the candidates and I think there's three teams that you could say have a chance to make a leap and I'll just use the FanDuel playoff odds to show that this would be significant. Houston is 3 and 5 plus 520 to make the playoffs. And I think they fit all the criteria for a possible leap team. Minnesota is 4 and 4. They were 3 and 4. They won last week. If you're under 500 week seven or later, you fit this criteria. So they're 4 and 4 now. They're plus 430 for, for the playoffs and the Arizona is 3 and 5 plus 980. So I'm just going to give you those three teams to start. Houston, Minnesota, Arizona. I'm going to tell you one of those three teams will be in the playoffs. Which of those three would you.
- [43:34]
B
The team that I think is the best of those three teams is Arizona.
- [43:39]
A
I think you're right. That couldn't believe the plus 980. I thought that, that, that seemed really high to me.
- [43:47]
B
They haven't lost. They lost five games so far this season, but none of them by more than four points.
- [43:53]
A
I mean that I have them with the adjusted record. I have them as three and one with four either or games. And all the game. All their losses and games have been close. And it seems like they're happier with their quarterback situation than they were.
- [44:07]
B
I mean, it's to, to. To. To put it mildly. The, the problem with Arizona, the reason that the price, you know, it's just a gauntlet. They are on the road at Seattle. They're home against San Francisco. Now Jacksonville, I'm sure we'll get to today. Home against Jacksonville doesn't worry me. But on the road at Tampa, home against the Rams, they have two easy.
- [44:30]
A
Games at Cincinnati, home, Jacksonville and at Cincinnati. I don't even know how easy of a game that is. Cause Burrow might be back. It's week 17.
- [44:37]
B
Durham's not coming back. What. What's the point of playing Joe Burrow.
- [44:40]
A
On that terrible football team at Seattle, at Tampa, at Houston, at Cincy, at Rams left and they're three and five. So they basically. They'd have to go seven and two.
- [44:50]
B
It's tough. I think, you know, if I. You would say Cincinnati is, to me is a win. They have Atlanta at home. That's a win. Atlanta's what a team. They're at Houston, I think just because of the injuries. Houston and Arizona are very similar. And why. I think it's like you have them properly organized in the same class. This is this concussion situation with CJ Stroud this weekend against Jacksonville. It just couldn't come at a worse time. And they, the Houston Texans were poised to do the thing that we picked them last week to do.
- [45:29]
A
We had that.
- [45:30]
B
I mean, you know, stupid. It was a cheap shot. Like, I don't, you know. Yeah, he didn't hit him in the head, but he hit him as he slid down and he got concussed from hitting his head off the turf. I feel like not enough has been made of the fact that that's a cheap shot and it knocked the quarterback out. And that probably clinches for Houston their inability to make the playoffs this season because they were kicking Denver's ass in that game.
- [45:57]
A
So I have, out of those three, I have Houston as the team that I would pick, even though I think Arizona is the best of the three, because Houston's 3 and 5, I have them at 3, 3 and 2, either or games. So far, they're plus 5, 20 to make the playoffs. But if you look at the schedule, first of all, they'd have to win the Jacksonville game this week, which is home, which is going to come up in Ringer 107. Because I have hard thoughts on that game at Tennessee. They could be five and five in 10 days. Right. A little more doable at that point.
- [46:27]
B
They could be home.
- [46:28]
A
Buffalo at Indy at Casey. Home, Arizona, home. Las Vegas at the Chargers. Home, Indy. And that game might mean nothing to Indy. So there's. You might be locked into a one or a two seed.
- [46:42]
B
The problem is they, they. They'll be five and five. I like the idea of where, where you're going. But then Buffalo, Indy, Kansas City, Arizona, those are the next four. That's how you define what. Yeah, they, at an absolute bare minimum, must go 2 and 2.
- [46:59]
A
The question for me is, can 9 and 8 make the playoffs in the AFC? Because you have four teams. Four teams. I have four. I have five teams that I think are going to be in the playoffs. New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver and Casey. And I know Casey's the 80s, but I just think those five teams are going to be in. I'd be shocked. Like, really genuinely shocked. Right. Do you have any of those out?
- [47:24]
B
No.
- [47:24]
A
New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, kc, They're all in. So there's two spots left. And we know one of those spots goes to the AFC north and then the other goes to the wild card. See Pittsburgh at 5 and 3. Again, two spots left for these four teams. Pittsburgh 5 and 3, they're minus 115 to make the playoffs on FanDuel seems.
- [47:41]
B
Like the right place.
- [47:42]
A
Baltimore 3 and 5, they're minus 170. Chargers 6 and 3, they're minus 192. And Jacksonville's 5 and 3, they're minus 158. So the odds are off. There's actually value in playing all of those to not make the playoffs. Right. Because only two of them are going to make it. So you probably going to win that either way. I would have the Chargers out. I think the Joel thing finished them.
- [48:05]
B
I agree with this.
- [48:07]
A
I just think they, they. They've. They can't block, cannot on. On top of some of the other shit that's happened to them. And I don't, I really don't. I. I think Herbert's just going to get better.
- [48:16]
B
They're so vulnerable to pressure.
- [48:19]
A
They also, they have, they're. They have a Philly home game. They have Pittsburgh this week at kc. They have at Denver Last week of the season, I just feels like 9 and 8 to me. I think they could go 3 and 5, so that would be one of my nos. And then Jacksonville, I just think is fraudulent. No, they're asked many times.
- [48:35]
B
No, no, no. So the two teams that I have in. You didn't ask are. Oh, no. Afc. Yeah. Baltimore and Denver. I have Baltimore and Denver.
- [48:46]
A
I had Denver in already.
- [48:48]
B
You said AFC west when you ran. When you ran through the teams. Cause you had the Chiefs in and then you said another spot for the AFC West.
- [48:54]
A
So I. Oh, I had New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver and kc. I had those five.
- [48:59]
B
Okay, okay, okay.
- [49:00]
A
Two left.
- [49:00]
B
I see. Oh, okay.
- [49:02]
A
Now I got Pittsburgh, Baltimore Chargers, Jacksonville, Houston. Pick two, Pittsburgh, Baltimore Chargers, Jacksonville, Houston.
- [49:14]
B
I have Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
- [49:20]
A
I think that's right. Houston would have to take one of their spots.
- [49:26]
B
I think this is how stupid I am. Yeah, we'll get to it in Ringer 107.
- [49:34]
A
Okay.
- [49:36]
B
I really like Pittsburgh in LA this week.
- [49:39]
A
Oh, unfortunately, I did, too. I had it marked. Damn.
- [49:44]
B
Makes a ton of sense.
- [49:47]
A
You know what killed Houston that game last week?
- [49:52]
B
It did.
- [49:52]
A
And they'd be 4 and 4 right now. I think they'd be fine with a.
- [49:55]
B
Game in hand against Denver, which is an important thing.
- [49:59]
A
Going six and so they're three and five that have to go seven and two down the stretch to get the 10 wins.
- [50:05]
B
I can't get there with Houston. I can't get there.
- [50:09]
A
All right. So the only reason I bring all this up is I think it informs the. How we should be thinking about Ringer 107. Because this is a. This is a fork in the road for the playoffs in a lot of ways. In the nfc where we have four teams that I think are in Philly, Green Bay, Tampa and Seattle. There's three spots left, and yet the Rams are minus 7. 50 to make the playoffs at 6 and 2. Detroit is minus 430 to make the playoffs at 5 and 3. And San Francisco is minus 385 to make the playoffs at 6 and 3. This is all in FanDuel. So Fando's basically saying the other four spots. 4 to 1 odds against these teams making it basically, which is they're prohibitive favorites. So Chicago is plus 185. They're 5 and 3. Carolina's 5 and 4. They're plus 235 with a pretty easy schedule. And then Minnesota 4 and 4 and Arizona 3 and 5. There's a mild Bears case.
- [51:12]
B
House.
- [51:14]
A
I actually was surprised they were plus 185. I thought that should have been a little closer to even because they got the Giants this week. They could be 6 and 3 at Minnesota, Pittsburgh at Philly, at Green Bay, Cleveland, home, Green Bay, home. At San Francisco, home, Detroit. And I think they can get to at least nine wins. But would you go chalk or would you. Would you have an outlier? Detroit, Rams, San Francisco, last three spots. Would you go chalk?
- [51:43]
B
Yeah, you would.
- [51:45]
A
You would go chalk.
- [51:46]
B
The parlay that I, that, that we talked about and we've been sort of pursuing over the last couple of weeks still feels right to me. I just, Even though Chicago, I want to give him credit because they keep surprising with changing the script of things that they can't do and then they start doing it successfully. They. I think they're the best rush team on offense, the best running team on offense over the last maybe at least three weeks, maybe month. The combination of DeAndre Swift and the guy that you picked up in free agency last week for his dominant 170.
- [52:29]
A
Guy.
- [52:29]
B
Yeah, Guy. Not a guy. Not a guy. Yes.
- [52:35]
A
Well, so Detroit Rams, Detroit, San Francisco, all to make the playoffs right now is minus 112, basically even odds. Those are the three. And if I had to pick a party crasher, I think I would pick Chicago. Just because they've had the turnover luck all year. And it's weird, but with turnover luck, it seems to change season to season and not during the season. Once you're kind of in that turnover good shit's happening, it feels like it just keeps going. I have no anecdotal evidence, I mean, no hardcore evidence, more anecdotal. But sometimes every. It feels like there's a horseshoe up the ass team in each conference every year. And this year it's Pittsburgh and Chicago.
- [53:17]
B
The team that I.
- [53:18]
A
And I. It just feels like a run that keeps going.
- [53:20]
B
The team I'd like to fade based on all the vulnerability we saw out of them last week is Detroit. Because that offensive line has revealed something to us.
- [53:30]
A
They just had a lot of injuries.
- [53:31]
B
Yeah, yeah, the injuries in the secondary. But they still have three, three games against the worst teams in the NFC east, which are all of the FC east teams except for the Eagles. They get to play Washington this week. Now, eight and a half is a ridiculous number. Preposterous. Under no circumstances I tell anybody to. To lay eight and a half with the Detroit Lions on the road outdoors against Washington. They might end up covering it.
- [53:59]
A
Daniels was playing that lines four, three and a half.
- [54:02]
B
Right? Exactly. And the difference between Mariota and Daniels.
- [54:08]
A
Is not five points this year's version of Daniels.
- [54:11]
B
Sure, yes, I'm here to tell you. But Detroit also still gets the Giants. They still get Dallas. And so otherwise there's because their schedule ends with two division games on the road against Minnesota and on the road against the Bears. If they're duking it out with the Bears, that Bears last game of the season might be for that playoff spot. So what are the odds for the bears to make?
- [54:44]
A
Plus 185. Well, and then Carolina we should mention quickly. They're five and four. I have them at two and two with five either or games. That's not bad. But they're playing New Orleans this week they're going to be 6 and 4 at Atlanta. Next week they could be 7 and 4 at San Francisco. Who knows who's left on that team? Play the Rams bye week at New Orleans, Tampa, Seattle and then at Tampa last week of the season. But Tampa will have at least clinched whatever they needed. There's a pretty easy case for nine wins for them. So there and then all that would need is one upset after that and that all of a sudden they're 10 and 7 in the playoffs.
- [55:23]
B
I haven't been 8 and 8 going through the schedule the way you just did going into 8 and 8. But like week 17, all of a.
- [55:31]
A
Sudden they, they beat the Rams in Carolina and you're like, oh my God, that my issue with looking at the playoff picture this year is there's no. I can't believe this. Like when we get to January and we're like I can't fucking believe this team's in the playoffs and that team is there every year and I don't know who that team is this year, but it's going to be a team. It's going to be the Bears to be the Panthers. Right.
- [55:53]
B
What's the Carolina odds to make the playoffs?
- [55:57]
A
Plus 235.
- [55:58]
B
So a tiny bit on the Bears at plus 185 and a tiny bit on Carolina at plus 235 to offset the plus 34017 parlay for the NFC picture that I bet two weeks ago.
- [56:15]
A
That'S what it was. Plus 340.
- [56:16]
B
Plus 340.
- [56:18]
A
Oh, when I sent it to you.
- [56:19]
B
And then it dropped because Washington went out and put up a stinker against the Chiefs. Washington at that point was still within the in the running.
- [56:29]
A
San Francisco is the is the weak link in that threesome.
- [56:33]
B
Yes.
- [56:34]
A
With the man injuries they've had and they still have a at Zona, they still have an at Indy. They got the Rams this week where they're getting four and a half points in that game. They have Seattle last week of the season. They're at Cleveland one week. I could easily see them losing five more games. I was telling you and Sal and Hanchow, I had made some San Francisco bets before the year. I bet the under 10 and a half and when I went to when I was in Boston. You can look at FanDuel and they offer you the do you want to buy this out now?
- [57:05]
B
Cash out?
- [57:06]
A
Yeah, you can cash this out if you're not happy. So they offered me like 85% of the Niners under BET, right? Maybe even 90%. They're like, you can have all this now or do you want to ride it out? And I was like, oh, that's interesting. So FanDuel doesn't think the Niners are winning 11 games because they really want me to cash this bet out for 90%. Not a good sign. All right, we're going to take one more break and do some picks. This episode is brought to you by the terrifying new horror film. I love horror films. Keeper. From Osgood Perkins, the director of Long Legs and the Monkey, comes a new breed of nightmare. Master of horror James Wan, creator of the Conjuring. I've seen it many times, praises Keeper as a terrifying, ghostly descent into madness. Don't miss the horror event of the season. Keeper opens in theaters nationwide November 14th. This episode is brought to you by Chime. A great team avoids dumb penalties, so get Chime on your side to help avoid dumb fees. With Chime, you can bank fee free, unlock your paycheck early and with qualifying direct deposits, you can get 1.5% cash back on eligible everyday purchases while building your credit. Start banking smarter today. Sign up for Chime in minutes. Terms and conditions apply. See chime.com for details. Chime is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services and the secured Chime Visa credit card provided by the Bancorp Bank NA or Stride Bank NA members. FDIC optional service and product may have fees or charges. Details@chime.com feesinfo with a qualifying direct deposit earn 1.5% cash back on eligible secured Chime Visa credit card purchases on time. Payment history may have a positive impact on your credit score. Results may vary. Learn about credit building and more@chime.com all right, Ringer 107. We're one game under.500. Some bad luck last week with Houston. I just felt like we've been banging out three and twos four on ones for a while. The Houston one. What can you do? Stay aways this week I'd like to stay away from Panthers minus five and a half against the Saints if that's possible. I don't want to lay that many points with the Panthers. It's possible.
- [59:16]
B
Say less. Don't have to bet. Don't have to argue about that one.
- [59:21]
A
Browns minus two and a half against the jets who just traded two of their best guys on defense and look like a classic Ewing theory situation and I don't want to take Dylan Gabriel on the road and Jeff kids may.
- [59:33]
B
Not be playing weather all kinds of stuff weather.
- [59:37]
A
I just. I don't want any part of that. I don't want that in a ring of 107. That's out. Lions at Washington Lane 8 1/2 I thought about the Lions at a parlay situation but first of all they screwed us last week.
- [59:51]
B
No.
- [59:52]
A
Second of all, we're not taking Washington. They've lost by 22, 21 and 24 the last three weeks and it seems like if they fall behind by 10, the game's over and their defense is 30th yards per play. 29th pass. I have no idea what's going to happen this game. I don't really want to have money on it. You agree?
- [60:08]
B
I'm not going to make a case that we should bet on Washington. I'm just saying the number is crazy. It's. It's way over inflated. It's not a good number.
- [60:18]
A
It's a. It's our flash sale line of the week.
- [60:22]
B
Yes, it is.
- [60:23]
A
It's. Do you like Washington at five and a half? Here's eight and a half right now. 12 hour lightning deal.
- [60:29]
B
By now Washington can get pressure. They don't have no edge pressure, but they can get pressure up the middle.
- [60:36]
A
Well, it's also that this is the season. If they lose this game this season.
- [60:40]
B
And I do think they're going to lose this game but eight and a half is preposterous. Anything over a touchdown is ridiculous.
- [60:47]
A
House, remember when Washington was awesome and they went to the.
- [60:50]
B
It was last year. Enjoyed it.
- [60:52]
A
Yeah.
- [60:52]
B
It was amazing.
- [60:53]
A
It was great. Feels like it was about eight years ago.
- [60:55]
B
It was just last year.
- [60:59]
A
I think Seahawks Cardinals is a stay away for me. It's Seahawks home minus six and a half and I know there's some cases for the cards playing them. They've been. You mentioned them earlier. They've been. Every game's been close, et cetera, et cetera. Seattle's advanced metric stuff is pretty nuts and I kind of want to see somebody beat them before I go against them. I also don't want to lay seven in a must win game for Arizona.
- [61:26]
B
I don't know what that number is based on. If Kyler Murray was playing then I could see this number making sense. Yeah, because Mike McDonald would absolutely have something cooked up for Kyler. But the six and a half is not a good number. I think Arizona is much better than that and Seattle is super gettable at home.
- [61:47]
A
On the flip side, you could say that number's not high enough because Seattle's first in DVOA in the whole league. Aaron Schott said they had the fourth best DVOA through eight games since 1978. So they're not just really good, they're fucking killing teams. Second. Their D is second and it's a run second yard per play. Third for quarterback hits. Their passing offense is obviously awesome. Here's my fear with this one. I think they're getting especially post Shahid trade a little too much. Too much buzz.
- [62:19]
B
I agree. I. I mean I think I just.
- [62:21]
A
Like feels like a classic. Oh, and in Arizona. Arizona's up 10. Nothing. I don't want any part of this game. Next one is Bears home against the Giants. They're laying four and a half.
- [62:35]
B
And.
- [62:35]
A
My eyes keep drifting to it and I keep trying to talk myself into it but it feels too square. It's in the Vegas zone for a reason. I mean the Giants run defense is awful. I love that Bears running back last week. I think he can run all over these guys. But yet you look at the turnover luck the Bears have had and some of the other signs and it's like I just, it's a stay away from me. I wish this sign was like one and a half.
- [63:00]
B
Then they'd be fine. Then, then it would be worth betting on. Yeah, no chance. I won't let us bet on the Bears under this. At that number.
- [63:11]
A
Do we want to go near Packers Eagles?
- [63:14]
B
I have a strong conviction on one side of that game.
- [63:17]
A
Oh well, let's hear it. The packers are favored by 2 1/2 and Green Bay. What is your strong conviction?
- [63:24]
B
I really think this is an opportunity for the Eagles to reassert themselves at the top of the NFC class. I think the Eagles are super live to go get the one seed in the nfc. It is there for the taking in view of the trades that they've made. They have told us that that is their desire. They have been very good against Green Bay. Historically and the argument in favor of Green Bay is will they show up or won't they every other game They've played the good teams in the league very well. Green Bay has. But it is inexcusable to have the loss that they had last week against Carolina and their receiver room. The only guy that I can look at and know confidently is healthy coming into this game is Dobbs.
- [64:21]
A
I think that who wears the kazoo helmet.
- [64:24]
B
Yes, he does. Yes he does. I think that it is yet to be written how impactful the absence of Craft is on that offense.
- [64:34]
A
Matthew golden playing, maybe not playing at all.
- [64:37]
B
Who knows? Craft especially though is the thing too.
- [64:40]
A
Yeah, Craft, we talked about that. Shayla and I talked about that Tuesday. He looked like she'll thought he was the best titan in the league.
- [64:46]
B
Right?
- [64:47]
A
Yes.
- [64:47]
B
The, the, the, the different things that, that, that Green Bay could do. They can't really run the ball. They don't really run the ball. I think, I think it's a great situation to get into the Eagles.
- [65:01]
A
Can I interest you and maybe a little slight bump up in some sort of teaser parlay situation with the Eagles to get them for.
- [65:09]
B
I'll listen.
- [65:11]
A
I think you're right on the Eagles. My one fear is Green Bay doesn't turn the ball over and they're great on third down. They're second and third down, second and turnover. So when they have the ball, they have it for a while. Eagles are 26th on third down, 22nd and causing turnovers. Right. And my fear is you take the Eagles and the packers just have these long boring 7 minute drives and then the Philly gets the ball back and they go three and out and the packers have the ball for eight minutes again. And I just was playing that in my head. DVOA Green Bay 7th and Phillies 11th. I'm with you on I like the Eagle spot because I agree with you on Kraft. I think that was a bigger issue than maybe the Lions are giving credit for. Do you have an opinion on Charger Steelers? Because that was in the maybe camp for me.
- [66:01]
B
I think that it is basically a west coast home game for the, for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yeah, I think that the place is going to be packed with Steelers fans and I thought that the adjustment that they made on, on defense and the way that they played the Colts was amazing. Now yes, they generated six turnovers. Are they going to generate six turnovers against the Chargers? It feels unlikely, but they showed an ability to, to adapt and you know, they took away from the Colts what like to do and we've been sitting here waiting for this Pittsburgh defense to. To reveal itself to us all season long. They worked into high cover. They were. They just showed a lot of flexibility that they, for whatever reason been unwilling to show us earlier. And I think that this.
- [67:00]
A
Did they play some robber Bernays? I think they did the steak. Steak sauce splits.
- [67:07]
B
They think they had that one. There was some simulated pressure. Some simul. Simulated Worcestershire pressure.
- [67:15]
A
Oh, interesting.
- [67:16]
B
Yeah.
- [67:16]
A
Did they do any ex robber?
- [67:18]
B
There was probably some ex robber Tabasco.
- [67:23]
A
Well, the stats say Pittsburgh's defense fucking sucks.
- [67:26]
B
Yeah, they do.
- [67:27]
A
They give up this year. They've given up 278.3 passing yards per game.
- [67:33]
B
We watched it per game. Yep, watch it all.
- [67:37]
A
32Nd in the league against the pass and they're second in turnovers, which makes no sense. Here's a concerning stat. The Cleveland Browns have 134 first downs. Would you say that's a good offense?
- [67:51]
B
Doesn't feel like it.
- [67:53]
A
The Steelers have 139. The five. Five more. They basically have the same number of first downs as the Cleveland Browns. It makes me nervous. They're also 30th in the run. I don't know. This is still a maybe to me. Let's go to the parlay section of.
- [68:16]
B
This.
- [68:18]
A
Where I have the Bills Dolphins minus nine and a half. And I would love to put the Bills money line with a pick and adjust the line just a little bit.
- [68:26]
B
Okay.
- [68:26]
A
Where we have The Bills first, first run, third pass or third yards per play. Miami's 30th against the run, 28th yards per play. Miami stinks, by the way. In case you haven't noticed. Buffalo's defense second against the pass, all these good miss matchup stuff. Plus like every week we've had a new mvp. And this feels like it's the Josh Allen. Hey, actually I'm the MVP week where he just like kills the Dolphins.
- [68:55]
B
He's favored right now after that.
- [68:56]
A
No, I know, but nobody's like each week somebody's had a is he the mvp? But we haven't had the Josh Allen is he the MVP week yet. Maybe it's this week. I would love to put them in with something. And I was thinking that something could be the Ravens in Minnesota. Unless you want to do the Eagles.
- [69:17]
B
Let me hear the. I love the Ravens this week, so you're not going to have to sell me Ravens.
- [69:23]
A
The. This line drifted a little high. This line went to Ravens minus four and a half in Minnesota. But it's an absolute must win for Baltimore and they're completely healthy. And could Minnesota really beat Detroit, Baltimore in back to back weeks?
- [69:46]
B
Nope.
- [69:46]
A
That's what I keep thinking.
- [69:47]
B
Nope.
- [69:49]
A
So I was thinking, like, for instance, we could take the Ravens line to two and a half, throw it with the Bills money line, and that gets us in the minus 120.
- [70:00]
B
Fine.
- [70:00]
A
We could also take the Eagles line up to four and a half, put that with the Bills money line, same bet. I think we should do one of those two.
- [70:10]
B
I'd rather put. Because one of those two bets I feel like we need as its own standalone bet. So which one?
- [70:19]
A
We can figure that out.
- [70:20]
B
Yeah, let's.
- [70:20]
A
Well, let's. We'll go through the rest of these. Just talk me out of the Falcons. Colts. Falcons plus six and a half.
- [70:30]
B
I'm dying. I'm dying to bet the Colts.
- [70:33]
A
It's in Indy. I'm sorry, it's not in India. It's in Berlin.
- [70:37]
B
It's in Germany.
- [70:39]
A
Yeah, it's in Berlin.
- [70:39]
B
Which franchise of those two do I think is going to be better prepared? Like the fucking Falcons can't figure out how to travel to San Francisco and be competitive. They're going to travel internationally and have their shit together enough to put up, you know, a modicum of resistance against this Colts team that's dying after getting its pants pulled down. And, you know, and on that, that stays with Pittsburgh to show everybody.
- [71:11]
A
Ward's concussed and Gardner supposedly cleared, but Gardner is going to go from the jets to the Colts and then fly to Germany. And that's his first game. And he's going to be good. A little dubious.
- [71:21]
B
Better than their alternative? Better than the alternative, that's for sure. You're at.
- [71:27]
A
I thought the Falcons were pretty good last week.
- [71:29]
B
They were.
- [71:29]
A
I thought they played a great spot for them.
- [71:31]
B
They did. They did play a great. They played bad. They're not good.
- [71:36]
A
This does violate our Europe rule, which is why I had to put an asterisk next to it. I would probably lean Falcons, but I think we have to stay away.
- [71:43]
B
Okay.
- [71:47]
A
Fucking A. I like the Niners. I wish I didn't. Niners are plus four and a half at home against the Rams.
- [71:54]
B
You're supposed to grab all those points with the Niners. That's what we're supposed to do.
- [71:57]
A
They played in Week 5. It was an overtime game. San Francisco won 26, 23.
- [72:02]
B
The Rams won every aspect of that game. The Rams beat the crap out of the Niners in that game. Until, you know, there was a fumble at the goal line.
- [72:11]
A
Niners are home. There's all kinds of weird Rams kicker shit going on. So I feel like there's a free three points in this game. It's Niners plus four and a half, but it's really Niners plus seven and a half because somebody in the Rams is missing a kick.
- [72:25]
B
Interesting.
- [72:28]
A
There's a lot of, like, the McShay versus Shanahan stuff I think has been overblown because the Rams did beat them twice last year. But that's a. It's a nice, fun, long rivalry. And I don't know how good do you think the Rams are? Because the advanced metrics say they're better than what I'm at. What I feel like I'm watching with my eyes.
- [72:48]
B
Their defense is. Is gettable. Their secondary is super gettable. It's just that they've been able to put pressure on teams and they've been.
- [72:57]
A
Able to third and sack fourth and hits.
- [72:59]
B
Yeah, there you go. So that.
- [73:00]
A
That.
- [73:01]
B
That is how they've addressed the fact that their secondary is crazy vulnerable.
- [73:07]
A
I think it's too many points. I have it marked down.
- [73:10]
B
Okay.
- [73:12]
A
Next one. Bucks, Pats. Bucks. Minus two and a half in Tampa against the Pats. Listen, we're under.500 and it's week 10, and I have no problem going against my team for one week. I'll still root for them.
- [73:24]
B
Okay.
- [73:25]
A
I think this line's too low. I just think this is a horrible matchup for the Pats. I don't like it at all because it's not going to. The Pats are great. Stopping the run. It's not going to really matter. I don't even think Bucky Irving is going to play. I think that Tampa is going to throw the ball and move the ball and do the stuff they do with Baker and the Pats. Atlanta was going up and down the field on them throwing the ball last week, and it really, you know, I think they have problems covering tight ends. They have problems covering running backs. There's. There's receiver issues with the Pats, whereas I'd booty the moment he left the game that they were kind of never the same. They. They lost, like, their deep threat when they lost him. And Diggs is playing half the game. If you look at the snaps, like, Matt Collins played 60% of the snaps last week and Kyle Williams played 50%. And also, like, Ramandre is hurt. They're not really running the ball. And I just think they're due for a shit game they had. They haven't been down by 10 points. To anybody since week one. This. I don't like the spot. I think this.
- [74:26]
B
We're in lockstep. Yeah, I was worried that I was going to have to talk you into this. I absolutely.
- [74:32]
A
I feel bad because I didn't want to go anti Pats. But we have. It's not anti pats 107. We have to go.
- [74:37]
B
Yeah. We're wearing locks up to Tampa as a play this week.
- [74:40]
A
At that number, the Pats win. I'm happy to sacrifice. Fuck them. Texans, Jaguars. I can't believe we're going back to the world, but I like the Texans again.
- [74:52]
B
I just can't. With Davis Mills, I just can't do it. I just can't.
- [74:55]
A
Well, it might have to be one of my picks.
- [74:58]
B
It could be your pick. I just, you know, I watched it. We were in a perfect situation with Denver like that. And I'm aware the Jaguars let there be no doubt. I mean Trevor Lawrence, his completion percentage over expectation. He is in the company of players like Cam. What's the Cam? Ward and Dylan.
- [75:25]
A
I have. I have his EPA. He's 46.
- [75:28]
B
Yes.
- [75:29]
A
Fields is 37th, two is 43rd. Kirk Cousins is 52nd. So he's barely better than Kirk Cousins who was dead.
- [75:41]
B
You want to play Houston?
- [75:42]
A
I just don't think Jacksonville against that defense is doing jack shit. So let me make the Davis Mills case.
- [75:46]
B
Okay.
- [75:48]
A
He's five, 19 and one as a starter. Oh, wait, that didn't help me.
- [75:53]
B
That's your opener.
- [75:54]
A
Now I got to make a different case. Came in cold.
- [76:00]
B
Okay.
- [76:01]
A
Last Sunday they gave this whole week.
- [76:06]
B
They made a plan for him this week, last week.
- [76:08]
A
Now he knows he's going to play. It's like, hey, we're playing Jacksonville. Jacksonville 27th against the pass. 31st sacks this year. Pretty good against the run, first in penalties. That's another Jacksonville thing. They fucking have 10 penalties a game. Yeah, Davis, here's the plan. You're going to do this. You're going to do this. We got Nico back, third and five. We have this pep play for you.
- [76:32]
B
Well, look at how they had the.
- [76:33]
A
Whole week to plan them.
- [76:34]
B
How starved Jacksonville is in the receiver room.
- [76:40]
A
They don't have Thomas or Hunter to.
- [76:42]
B
Think that Jacoby Meyer is going to be the. They had to go in that direction.
- [76:48]
A
Yeah. Like I watched the Raiders game last week and I don't remember him doing anything. I remember Brock Bowers doing stuff.
- [76:56]
B
Sure.
- [76:57]
A
By the way, I forgot to mention during the indie thing, I was so mad I missed this on Tuesday. A couple people mentioned it to me. New owner syndrome with the sauce gardener trade. It was a basketball trade.
- [77:09]
B
Very good, Very good.
- [77:10]
A
I like the daughters. Took over the team. Everybody loves daughters. This was like, ah, we got a sauce gardener. Let's go get him. It was like a new owner. It was a classic new owner trade. It really was two first Gardner for sauce Gardner. We got to do this. Houston's defense is top six everywhere.
- [77:29]
B
Yeah.
- [77:30]
A
I just feel like the defense wins the game.
- [77:32]
B
Okay.
- [77:33]
A
Mills makes two throws.
- [77:34]
B
Okay.
- [77:35]
A
They're going to be able to run the ball.
- [77:36]
B
Yeah.
- [77:37]
A
It's minus. Is it still minus one and a half? It's minus one and a half.
- [77:42]
B
Wait, the Texans are underdogs in this game?
- [77:46]
A
Did it flip again? I'm telling you, no. Yeah, they're. Texans are underdogs again. They were favored four hours ago.
- [77:54]
B
Well, for 1 or Ringer 107 purposes. What are they?
- [77:58]
A
They're plus 1 plus 1.5.
- [78:02]
B
So they're underdogs.
- [78:03]
A
There you go. Yeah, they're underdogs.
- [78:05]
B
That's what we want.
- [78:06]
A
Okay.
- [78:07]
B
All right.
- [78:07]
A
We're going to take a break and then House and I are going to come back and figure out the Ringer 107 once and for all. This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market. At Whole Foods Market, you'll find great everyday prices for this Thanksgiving. Check out their 365 brand. No antibiotics ever. Turkeys start at 149 a pound with prime with organic birds. At $2.99 a pound, you'll find Thanksgiving essentials like condensed soups. I love those instant mashed potatoes like those, too. Organic baking spices. Plus low prices on everything else you need, from fresh produce to frozen appetizers. Enjoy. So many ways to save on your Thanksgiving spread at Whole Foods Market. Terms apply. This episode is brought to you by TikTok. Sports fans love to discover the next greatest player of all time. TikTok applies that passion to the whole game. You'll find fans breaking down games, people teaching the math behind advanced stats. Even communities showing how sports connect to bigger cultural moments. One scroller you're watching a trick shot. The next you're taking in the physics that make it happen. It's not just watching. It's learning, discovering, and sharing with millions of fans. Every day, there's something new to discover on TikTok. All right, today's Ringer 107. It's brought to you by FanDuel. We have five picks that we like that we figured out over the over the long commercial break. You'll have no idea how long it was. This is House's pick. I'm going to pass. House gets a pick every week. House, you picked the Bucks minus two and a half over the Patriots.
- [79:32]
B
What was your case? The case is the case that you made for how to New England. It's a tough spot. It's Tampa coming off of a buy, restored health, a lot of skill. Even with Bucky Irving still missing up a class for New England. New England's been impressive, but this is, you know, a real heavyweight that needs to win games to finish out the season. So I like Tampa at home.
- [79:57]
A
Yeah, the Pats can come out of this and still be only three losses in with only a couple games left in the season that are. That are hard and in two jets games as well. Yeah, it's a tough spot. I'd be put this way. I'd be very surprised if the Pats won this game with some of the injuries on offense. With the way they blocked the last couple weeks. 17 sacks in three weeks, with the way they've been covering tight ends and running backs. This is a tough spot for them. Next pick, we're going to do a little parlay. Ravens down to minus two and a half in Minnesota. So Ravens have to win by three in a must win game. And if you believe the Ravens are still a Super bowl contender, there's no way they can't win this game against J.J. mcCarthy in Minnesota. And we're going to put that with the Bills money line against the Miami Dolphins and that is exactly minus 120. House, we barely made it if it had been one inch. Another way we lose that parlay. So anyway, that's minus 120, Ravens minus 2, Bill's money line. And I could see both of those where both teams win by like two touchdowns.
- [81:04]
B
Me too.
- [81:04]
A
I feel like we're going to be smooth sailing with that parlay. Next one is another Joe House favorite. It's the Eagles plus two and a half in Green Bay. And I agree. The craft injury, the uncertainty in the wide receiver room, the Eagles kind of needing to play a good game. All of their stats are like eh.
- [81:24]
B
It'S the pass rush for the Eagles that I think we're going to see for the first time. Remember how dominant they were down the stretch and through the playoffs. We have the return of Nolan Smith, we have the addition.
- [81:38]
A
Now we got some dudes and look.
- [81:39]
B
This is the vulnerability of Green Bay. Like the, you know, they have the training wheels on Jordan Love because that they, they that offensive line isn't quite 28th in run block win rate. The packers. So they don't. They don't intimidate you with establishing the run. Green Bay. And they can't set up play action because teams aren't taking the run serious.
- [82:00]
A
So Monday night game too for this.
- [82:02]
B
Yeah.
- [82:04]
A
Yeah. This is a nice Eagles. We've now reclaimed our territory spot. I like it. So Eagles plus two and a half. That's our third pick. The Niners. This was my pick. I just think it's too many points and I can only name four guys in their defense at this point. But Niners plus four and a half at home against the Rams. You're getting an extra three points from the miss field goal that the Rams are going to have during this game. So it's a flash sale. It's really. You're getting it at nine or seven and a half. I just think these games are going to be close with all these NFC west games. I just feel like that's how it's going to go all season.
- [82:44]
B
Yeah.
- [82:44]
A
They're all going to come down to the wire. Is it. Maybe Seattle can elevate above these teams. But you know, if the Niners. It's a little bit of a. I hate the word must win, but it's. You don't want to go six and four lose.
- [83:01]
B
Yeah, but they stole their split now.
- [83:02]
A
Split with the Rams.
- [83:03]
B
They stole that split by winning in week five the way they did.
- [83:09]
A
Yeah. I just don't want to be 6 and 4 with half my team in the hospital.
- [83:15]
B
Fair enough.
- [83:17]
A
And then if you're the Rams, it's a little bit of a must win because you don't want to lose every tiebreaker to the Niners. Potentially. But I don't know, it feels like there's some voodoo against the Niners. Fanduel asking me to cash out of my niners under 10 and a half made me suspicious. We'll see. We'll see if they can fight the voodoo off this week. Texans plus one and a half at home against the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence favored in Houston against one of the three best defenses in the league. What are we doing?
- [83:50]
B
Nope. Nope. Nope.
- [83:52]
A
Here's my impression of Trevor in the third quarter.
- [84:00]
B
With that the beautiful.
- [84:01]
A
Here's my impression of Trevor in the fourth quarter.
- [84:06]
B
Eyes in the back of the head. Eyes. Hands covering the eyes. Hands covering the back of the head.
- [84:12]
A
D'.
- [84:12]
B
Amico.
- [84:13]
A
Ryan's owes us too, a little bit. He owes us a little bit. The 14 second drive with the minute 14 left. God on your own 10 yard line.
- [84:23]
B
My word.
- [84:25]
A
So anyway, we're taking the Texans plus one and a half. So to recap, Bucks minus two and a half. Ravens minus two and a half with bills moneyline parlay minus 120. Eagles plus two and a half. Niners plus four and a half. Texans plus one and a half. I like that we have a couple home dogs this week too.
- [84:42]
B
Me, I feel the same way.
- [84:44]
A
Some home cooking and I can't believe we went against my team. But that was the Ringer 107. And it was presented by FanDuel. Did you like the Sauce Gardner trade?
- [84:55]
B
I did. I understand the you're always a mark.
- [84:59]
A
For trading multiple firsts for a good player.
- [85:01]
B
You've always loved that because he's a good player. Like you don't have to wonder. He's a first round pick. That is like how many of those first round picks that they traded are going to be as good as Sauce Gardener. Tell me the answer to that and then, and then we can assess this. But look this, this Colts team recognizes the window and recognizes they haven't. It's the part of their team that is, you know, the most vulnerable because of injury and you know, the talent that they had there. I have absolutely no issue whatsoever with them going for it.
- [85:37]
A
It's kind of like when you went got Marshawn Latimer last year.
- [85:40]
B
It was.
- [85:41]
A
He's one of your favorite commanders.
- [85:43]
B
That's not true. And good luck to him and the rest of his. I don't think he's going to have much of a football career after this, but to the rest of, to whatever happens to him in life, good luck to him.
- [85:56]
A
Can we talk about the Guillotine League really fast?
- [85:58]
B
Go ahead.
- [85:58]
A
Before we go.
- [85:59]
B
Go ahead.
- [86:01]
A
Are you still alive in the Guillotine League?
- [86:03]
B
You took all of my good players. I, I had.
- [86:06]
A
Yeah. You're not alive.
- [86:07]
B
The beauty of the Guillotine. I had a great team. I mean I had an amazing team. I just hit a week. I had Bijan Robinson going up against the Dolphins and he produced four fantasy points. I had Caleb Williams in a good situation.
- [86:21]
A
Oh yeah, I can't remember.
- [86:23]
B
You took all my guys. I had Bucky Irving.
- [86:25]
A
So there's two strategies. One is in the Guillotine League. For people that don't know you start out with 17 teams, 16 teams, however many teams you want to have, lowest team every week gets voted out. So we were, we started out just gets cut. Well, it's just cut.
- [86:41]
B
You're just cruelly that's it.
- [86:43]
A
And your players become available and people can bid on them. And there's two ways it can go. One is you have a thousand bucks to spend. Bidding war for the guys, like when Bijan Robinson becomes available, or you try to get cagey and see how long you can last with the team you picked. Pick around the edges, but kind of wait until there's less teams. And I chose the latter strategy and almost lost twice. Like, I. I probably should have lost. I. I don't really think I should be alive. But I lucked out.
- [87:13]
B
I had a week that I got.
- [87:14]
A
Barely made it. You.
- [87:15]
B
You beat me on Monday Night Football with Isaiah Pacheco running for 48 yards or whatever. That's how I.
- [87:21]
A
And we both had terrible weeks, and I barely edged you out. But I had the most money this week, and somebody's team got cut. And all of a sudden it was Josh Allen was available, and James Cook and Jamar Chase and Jaylen Waddle, all these dudes. And I had the most money. I had, like, 630 bucks. Jeff Chow had 500. And then nobody else had more than, like, 180.
- [87:46]
B
Yeah.
- [87:47]
A
And so I was, like, planning it out, and I actually outwitted Jeff Chow, who runs business for the Ringer and Spotify Studios. I outwitted him just flat out. I bid 251 for Josh Allen and 251 for James Cook, thinking Jeff would go for one, beat him on both of those, and then got your bar, Chase 2. And now I'm in the driver's seat, and I just stuck it to Jeff Chow. It was great. Mr. Business.
- [88:13]
B
Yeah.
- [88:14]
A
Who's the business guy now? I don't yet.
- [88:20]
B
I don't. I'm not privy. Once you get cut, you can't go back and look. And honestly, I don't know why I would. But what did he bid? What Chow bid on those guys?
- [88:28]
A
I don't know. You know what he bid? Not enough. So here's my team. Josh Allen, Jameer Gibbs, James Cook, Emeka Buka, Quentin Johnston, George Kittle, Sam Laporta and DK Metcalf.
- [88:41]
B
It's a pretty good team.
- [88:42]
A
That's a pretty good one.
- [88:43]
B
It's pretty good.
- [88:44]
A
And this is what happens if you can somehow survive and then go all in and, like, week nine, week ten. But now that everyone knows that strategy, I don't know what the counter strategy is to that. I guess it would be just be drafting.
- [88:55]
B
Don't get. Don't have guys get hurt. That's. That's, you know.
- [88:59]
A
Well, that's the thing. The other guillotine league I was in, we had Lamar and he got hurt in week four and it was like, so you're done?
- [89:04]
B
That's right.
- [89:05]
A
Yeah, you're done. You got to get a little healthy. But you liked it though?
- [89:08]
B
I loved it. You kidding me? I did a good job drafting. I was very proud of myself. You just catch a dry week and you're done. You just go home.
- [89:18]
A
I'd rather be done versus like have the carcass of my mediocre fantasy team drag on for 14 weeks. You know what I mean?
- [89:26]
B
I have a. I'm in a league where My team is 1 and 8. I did an auto draft and the rankings that it was cbs. I'll call them out. I mean it was an abomination. They should be embarrassed claiming that they have fantasy experts. All I did was hit auto draft and went for like the 10th overall pick in a non PPR league. They gave me Lamar Jackson. Like what I need a fucking running back at the 10th pick. Whoever, the best running.
- [89:57]
A
Well, couldn't you have said that in your settings?
- [89:59]
B
This is the point of auto draft, right? You're the fucking expert.
- [90:04]
A
You AI will make this better. Maybe this will be. Maybe AI will be used for some good.
- [90:10]
B
So stupid. So it's fine. But I do diligently set a lineup every week because I have integrity and it's for the integrity of the league. I mean I made six trades or acquisitions this week, this past week, but yes.
- [90:24]
A
Did you just praise yourself for making moves in a fantasy league?
- [90:27]
B
Just maintaining the integrity of the league. Not just walking away from my hot trash auto draft. CBS bot. Go fuck yourself. Hot garbage scenario.
- [90:41]
A
Hey, one other thing before we go. It looks like. It looks like the Sunday ringer pregame show is going to be available on all the Fanduel RSNs.
- [90:51]
B
Let's go. How about that?
- [90:53]
A
So if you have one of those Fanduel RSNs where you know like you see Golic and Golic ads or you have that like that's usually one of them. We're going to be on those and we're going to be on them with the ringer gambling show as well. So a little extra, little extra market share.
- [91:09]
B
Great way to spend your Sunday morning. All we do is winners.
- [91:14]
A
It's 11am this week though. We're starting early. It's a two hour show. 11am why can't we start at 10, all the way to kickoff?
- [91:21]
B
Fine.
- [91:21]
A
Yeah.
- [91:22]
B
Start at 9:30. I'm here. We're doing. We're doing the games. We're trying to give out winners.
- [91:28]
A
There's a good chance I'll be sitting in some airport watching it because my flight's been delayed for 19 hours. You might have to host guest the lines with just come down to D.C.
- [91:38]
B
Could have a great time.
- [91:39]
A
I might that might that might have to do that.
- [91:42]
B
Come see Kornheiser. We'll have a great time together.
- [91:47]
A
He's never leaving.
- [91:49]
B
Leaving what?
- [91:50]
A
He just signed again.
- [91:52]
B
Why? Why? It's a great life.
- [91:54]
A
He's been telling us he was going to retire for 10 years.
- [91:56]
B
He plays golf and he does the show. It's a great life.
- [91:59]
A
I I really do have any farewell thoughts for espn. Bet.
- [92:03]
B
Oh, is it gone?
- [92:05]
A
It's gone. Oh, they're wrapping up.
- [92:07]
B
They tried. They tried. Best of luck.
- [92:11]
A
Too late to the party.
- [92:12]
B
A little bit late.
- [92:14]
A
Yeah. They. They. It's a wrap.
- [92:17]
B
Okay.
- [92:18]
A
Anything else before we go?
- [92:20]
B
Nothing.
- [92:21]
A
Okay.
- [92:22]
B
Some great golf in Europe.
- [92:24]
A
Great golf in Europe.
- [92:25]
B
Well, it's actually it's the DP World Tour that is playing in their race to the whatever Cup. I think they're in the Middle East. They are in the Middle East. They're playing somewhere in Dubai. But all the best guys are playing. The entire Ryder cup team for Europe is playing. Ah, the team you were John Rom and Terrell Hatt.
- [92:46]
A
It was your team. Those are your guys.
- [92:48]
B
Yep.
- [92:49]
A
All right, House.
- [92:50]
B
Good times.
- [92:50]
A
So you're my favorite NBA trade that I came up with was which one?
- [92:54]
B
What was the last one? Well, I honestly.
- [92:57]
A
Kobe. Kobe Jones. Kobe White.
- [93:00]
B
No, I, I, I like John Morant to Miami better.
- [93:04]
A
That should. So that was the chalk one.
- [93:07]
B
Makes a lot of sense.
- [93:08]
A
It's a winner for content. All right, see you, House. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Haus and Gahao and Eduardo as well. I am going to hopefully have a podcast on Sunday. I'm flying back on Sunday to the West Coast. Is this going to be a good idea with what's going on with airports right now? We're about to find out. So if you see me Sunday night, I'll be happy. You'll be happy. Everyone will be happy. Have a great weekend. Must be 21 plus on President in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + on President in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gamma problem called 100 Gamble or visit rg-help.com call 888-797-7777 or visit ccpg.orgchatinconnecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York.