Podcast Summary: The Bill Simmons Podcast – "Guess the 2025 NFL Over/Under Win Totals With Cousin Sal"

Release Date: March 27, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons
Guest: Cousin Sal
Description: In this engaging episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, host Bill Simmons teams up with his long-time collaborator Cousin Sal to tackle a new and exciting segment: guessing the 2025 NFL Over/Under Win Totals for each team. Their dynamic chemistry, combined with insightful analysis and a touch of humor, offers listeners a comprehensive preview of the upcoming NFL season's predictions.

1. Introduction to the Over/Under Win Totals Game

Bill Simmons introduces the episode by explaining the new segment where he and Cousin Sal will predict the Over/Under win totals for all NFL teams in the 2025 season. They decide to approach this without prior research, relying solely on their instincts to forecast each team's performance.

Bill Simmons [00:00]: "NFL win total over unders came out today, and Cousin Sal and I decided we missed Guess the Lions. We're just going to do it again."

2. Setting the Stage

Cousin Sal shares his enthusiasm for the new game despite having been under the weather.

Cousin Sal [03:38]: "This is a spectacular day. A new day in our calendar... Hopefully we could keep doing this."

Bill emphasizes the importance of considering factors like the draft picks, team schedules, and player performances without external influences to maintain the game's integrity.

3. Predicting Over/Under Win Totals by Division

The bulk of the episode revolves around Bill and Cousin Sal dissecting each NFL division, team by team, to predict their Over/Under win totals for the upcoming season. Below is a detailed breakdown of their discussions:

a. AFC East

• Buffalo Bills: Bill predicts an 11.5 win total, while Sal opts for 12.

  Bill Simmons [07:09]: "I went with 11.5."

  Cousin Sal [09:14]: "I said 12."

• Miami Dolphins: Bill favors an 8.5 win total, expressing skepticism about the team's performance.

  Bill Simmons [11:10]: "Nine. Wow. You really went round numbers."

• New England Patriots: Both predict a challenging season with Bill estimating 7.5 wins.

  Bill Simmons [14:22]: "That's where you want to be."

• New York Jets: Bill suggests a 6.5 win total, reflecting uncertainties around the quarterback position.

  Bill Simmons [12:38]: "Six and a half for these guys."

b. AFC North

• Baltimore Ravens: Both agree on 11.5 wins, factoring in a tough schedule.

  Cousin Sal [18:06]: "That's exactly what I said."

• Pittsburgh Steelers: Bill estimates 7.5 wins, criticizing the team's lack of a stable quarterback.

  Bill Simmons [20:19]: "Seven and a half."

• Cincinnati Bengals: Bill opts for a challenging 9.5 win total, amidst quarterback uncertainties.

  Bill Simmons [21:08]: "That has to be an under bet for me."

• Cleveland Browns: Both predict a tough season with a 5.5 win total.

  Cousin Sal [31:56]: "Five and a half."

c. AFC South

• Houston Texans: Both project 9.5 wins, considering offensive challenges.

  Bill Simmons [26:27]: "I went nine and a half."

• Indianapolis Colts: Both settle on 7.5 wins, acknowledging the team's struggles.

  Bill Simmons [28:16]: "Seven and a half."

• Jacksonville Jaguars: Bill guesses 6.5 wins, while Sal leans towards 7.5.

  Cousin Sal [28:55]: "Seven and a half."

• Tennessee Titans: Bill changes his initial guess to 4.5, aiming for the Jaguars as the division's weakest.

  Bill Simmons [31:56]: "Five and a half."

d. AFC West

• Kansas City Chiefs: Bill estimates 11.5 wins, recognizing Mahomes' impact.

  Bill Simmons [34:13]: "11 and a half."

• Los Angeles Chargers: Both predict lower totals due to roster uncertainties, with Bill at 9.5.

  Bill Simmons [36:54]: "Nine and a half."

• Denver Broncos: Both agree on 8.5 wins, factoring in coaching stability.

  Bill Simmons [37:54]: "Eight and a half."

• Las Vegas Raiders: Bill opts for 6.5, while Sal chooses 6.

  Cousin Sal [38:49]: "Six and a half."

e. NFC East

• Washington Football Team: Bill predicts 10.5 wins, balancing past performance and current roster.

  Bill Simmons [47:18]: "Ten and a half."

• Dallas Cowboys: Both voice skepticism, with Bill at 7.5 and Sal at 8 wins.

  Cousin Sal [49:06]: "I have eight."

• Philadelphia Eagles: Bill forecasts 6.5 wins, highlighting financial constraints.

  Bill Simmons [52:07]: "Six and a half."

• New York Giants: Both decide on low totals, with Bill at 4.5 and Sal at 5 wins.

  Cousin Sal [74:30]: "I went five and a half too."

f. NFC North

• Detroit Lions: Both predict 8.5 wins, considering significant changes in coaching and player personnel.

  Bill Simmons [60:30]: "Eight and a half."

• Green Bay Packers: Bill chooses 9.5 wins, while Sal decides on 9.

  Cousin Sal [58:34]: "I went nine."

• Chicago Bears: Both express doubt, with Bill at 9.5 and Sal at 9.

  Bill Simmons [60:30]: "Eight and a half."

• Minnesota Vikings: Both foresee a downturn, with Bill at 9.5 and Sal at 8.5.

  Cousin Sal [57:46]: "I went eight and a half."

g. NFC South

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bill predicts 8.5 wins, while Sal opts for 9.

  Bill Simmons [62:52]: "Eight and a half."

• New Orleans Saints: Both project low totals, with Bill at 6.5 and Sal at 6.

  Bill Simmons [67:07]: "Six and a half."

• Atlanta Falcons: Bill estimates 8.5 wins, while Sal chooses 7.

  Cousin Sal [73:54]: "I went nine."

• Carolina Panthers: Both predict 6.5 wins, reflecting team instability.

  Bill Simmons [66:54]: "Six and a half."

h. NFC West

• San Francisco 49ers: Bill forecasts 6.5 wins, contending with roster losses and coaching changes.

  Bill Simmons [72:35]: "Six and a half."

• Los Angeles Rams: Bill opts for 10.5 wins, considering coaching effectiveness and player acquisitions.

  Bill Simmons [69:11]: "Ten and a half."

• Seattle Seahawks: Both predict 8.5 wins, factoring in new quarterback dynamics.

  Cousin Sal [70:30]: "Seven and a half."

• Arizona Cardinals: Bill estimates 8.5 wins, while Sal chooses 7.

  Bill Simmons [71:35]: "Eight and a half."

4. Recap of Predictions and Current Standings

As the episode progresses, Bill and Cousin Sal tally their predictions, noting Cousin Sal's lead in correctly guessing several teams' over/under win totals. Their playful competitiveness adds a layer of entertainment, making the segment both informative and enjoyable.

Cousin Sal [57:02]: "I can't, I swear. I'm not cheating."

Bill Simmons [63:02]: "You're killing me. Guessing the over unders your final destiny."

5. Personal Anecdotes and Parent Corner

Towards the end of the episode, Bill and Cousin Sal shift gears to share personal stories, particularly focusing on Bill's interactions with his son Archie's spring break. They discuss the challenges of modern communication with children and reflect on memorable TV show finales.

Bill Simmons [74:25]: "My wife asks how the performance was, and there's just silence or a picture of the dog."

Cousin Sal [75:00]: "So I present it to the counter. It's a miracle."

6. Closing Remarks

The episode wraps up with Bill and Cousin Sal expressing their enjoyment of the new Over/Under win totals game. They encourage listeners to participate and tease future episodes where they might delve deeper into their betting strategies and predictions.

Bill Simmons [82:52]: "So there you go. The answer is six and a half."

Cousin Sal [83:18]: "Good job by you."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Bill Simmons [07:09]: "I went with 11.5."

• Cousin Sal [09:14]: "I said 12."

• Bill Simmons [20:19]: "Seven and a half."

• Cousin Sal [31:56]: "Five and a half."

• Cousin Sal [57:46]: "I went eight and a half."

• Bill Simmons [74:25]: "My wife asks how the performance was, and there's just silence or a picture of the dog."

• Cousin Sal [75:00]: "So I present it to the counter. It's a miracle."

Conclusion

This episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast offers a thorough and entertaining dive into NFL team predictions for the 2025 season through the lens of Over/Under win totals. Bill and Cousin Sal's banter, combined with their analytical approaches, provide listeners with valuable insights and an engaging listening experience, whether they're hardcore sports fans or casual enthusiasts.