Guess the 2025 NFL Over/Under Win Totals With Cousin Sal

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Bill Simmons Podcast – "Guess the 2025 NFL Over/Under Win Totals With Cousin Sal"

Release Date: March 27, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons
Guest: Cousin Sal
Description: In this engaging episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, host Bill Simmons teams up with his long-time collaborator Cousin Sal to tackle a new and exciting segment: guessing the 2025 NFL Over/Under Win Totals for each team. Their dynamic chemistry, combined with insightful analysis and a touch of humor, offers listeners a comprehensive preview of the upcoming NFL season's predictions.

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1. Introduction to the Over/Under Win Totals Game

Bill Simmons introduces the episode by explaining the new segment where he and Cousin Sal will predict the Over/Under win totals for all NFL teams in the 2025 season. They decide to approach this without prior research, relying solely on their instincts to forecast each team's performance.

Bill Simmons [00:00]: "NFL win total over unders came out today, and Cousin Sal and I decided we missed Guess the Lions. We're just going to do it again."

2. Setting the Stage

Cousin Sal shares his enthusiasm for the new game despite having been under the weather.

Cousin Sal [03:38]: "This is a spectacular day. A new day in our calendar... Hopefully we could keep doing this."

Bill emphasizes the importance of considering factors like the draft picks, team schedules, and player performances without external influences to maintain the game's integrity.

3. Predicting Over/Under Win Totals by Division

The bulk of the episode revolves around Bill and Cousin Sal dissecting each NFL division, team by team, to predict their Over/Under win totals for the upcoming season. Below is a detailed breakdown of their discussions:

a. AFC East

• Buffalo Bills: Bill predicts an 11.5 win total, while Sal opts for 12.

  Bill Simmons [07:09]: "I went with 11.5."

  Cousin Sal [09:14]: "I said 12."

• Miami Dolphins: Bill favors an 8.5 win total, expressing skepticism about the team's performance.

  Bill Simmons [11:10]: "Nine. Wow. You really went round numbers."

• New England Patriots: Both predict a challenging season with Bill estimating 7.5 wins.

  Bill Simmons [14:22]: "That's where you want to be."

• New York Jets: Bill suggests a 6.5 win total, reflecting uncertainties around the quarterback position.

  Bill Simmons [12:38]: "Six and a half for these guys."

b. AFC North

• Baltimore Ravens: Both agree on 11.5 wins, factoring in a tough schedule.

  Cousin Sal [18:06]: "That's exactly what I said."

• Pittsburgh Steelers: Bill estimates 7.5 wins, criticizing the team's lack of a stable quarterback.

  Bill Simmons [20:19]: "Seven and a half."

• Cincinnati Bengals: Bill opts for a challenging 9.5 win total, amidst quarterback uncertainties.

  Bill Simmons [21:08]: "That has to be an under bet for me."

• Cleveland Browns: Both predict a tough season with a 5.5 win total.

  Cousin Sal [31:56]: "Five and a half."

c. AFC South

• Houston Texans: Both project 9.5 wins, considering offensive challenges.

  Bill Simmons [26:27]: "I went nine and a half."

• Indianapolis Colts: Both settle on 7.5 wins, acknowledging the team's struggles.

  Bill Simmons [28:16]: "Seven and a half."

• Jacksonville Jaguars: Bill guesses 6.5 wins, while Sal leans towards 7.5.

  Cousin Sal [28:55]: "Seven and a half."

• Tennessee Titans: Bill changes his initial guess to 4.5, aiming for the Jaguars as the division's weakest.

  Bill Simmons [31:56]: "Five and a half."

d. AFC West

• Kansas City Chiefs: Bill estimates 11.5 wins, recognizing Mahomes' impact.

  Bill Simmons [34:13]: "11 and a half."

• Los Angeles Chargers: Both predict lower totals due to roster uncertainties, with Bill at 9.5.

  Bill Simmons [36:54]: "Nine and a half."

• Denver Broncos: Both agree on 8.5 wins, factoring in coaching stability.

  Bill Simmons [37:54]: "Eight and a half."

• Las Vegas Raiders: Bill opts for 6.5, while Sal chooses 6.

  Cousin Sal [38:49]: "Six and a half."

e. NFC East

• Washington Football Team: Bill predicts 10.5 wins, balancing past performance and current roster.

  Bill Simmons [47:18]: "Ten and a half."

• Dallas Cowboys: Both voice skepticism, with Bill at 7.5 and Sal at 8 wins.

  Cousin Sal [49:06]: "I have eight."

• Philadelphia Eagles: Bill forecasts 6.5 wins, highlighting financial constraints.

  Bill Simmons [52:07]: "Six and a half."

• New York Giants: Both decide on low totals, with Bill at 4.5 and Sal at 5 wins.

  Cousin Sal [74:30]: "I went five and a half too."

f. NFC North

• Detroit Lions: Both predict 8.5 wins, considering significant changes in coaching and player personnel.

  Bill Simmons [60:30]: "Eight and a half."

• Green Bay Packers: Bill chooses 9.5 wins, while Sal decides on 9.

  Cousin Sal [58:34]: "I went nine."

• Chicago Bears: Both express doubt, with Bill at 9.5 and Sal at 9.

  Bill Simmons [60:30]: "Eight and a half."

• Minnesota Vikings: Both foresee a downturn, with Bill at 9.5 and Sal at 8.5.

  Cousin Sal [57:46]: "I went eight and a half."

g. NFC South

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bill predicts 8.5 wins, while Sal opts for 9.

  Bill Simmons [62:52]: "Eight and a half."

• New Orleans Saints: Both project low totals, with Bill at 6.5 and Sal at 6.

  Bill Simmons [67:07]: "Six and a half."

• Atlanta Falcons: Bill estimates 8.5 wins, while Sal chooses 7.

  Cousin Sal [73:54]: "I went nine."

• Carolina Panthers: Both predict 6.5 wins, reflecting team instability.

  Bill Simmons [66:54]: "Six and a half."

h. NFC West

• San Francisco 49ers: Bill forecasts 6.5 wins, contending with roster losses and coaching changes.

  Bill Simmons [72:35]: "Six and a half."

• Los Angeles Rams: Bill opts for 10.5 wins, considering coaching effectiveness and player acquisitions.

  Bill Simmons [69:11]: "Ten and a half."

• Seattle Seahawks: Both predict 8.5 wins, factoring in new quarterback dynamics.

  Cousin Sal [70:30]: "Seven and a half."

• Arizona Cardinals: Bill estimates 8.5 wins, while Sal chooses 7.

  Bill Simmons [71:35]: "Eight and a half."

4. Recap of Predictions and Current Standings

As the episode progresses, Bill and Cousin Sal tally their predictions, noting Cousin Sal's lead in correctly guessing several teams' over/under win totals. Their playful competitiveness adds a layer of entertainment, making the segment both informative and enjoyable.

Cousin Sal [57:02]: "I can't, I swear. I'm not cheating."

Bill Simmons [63:02]: "You're killing me. Guessing the over unders your final destiny."

5. Personal Anecdotes and Parent Corner

Towards the end of the episode, Bill and Cousin Sal shift gears to share personal stories, particularly focusing on Bill's interactions with his son Archie's spring break. They discuss the challenges of modern communication with children and reflect on memorable TV show finales.

Bill Simmons [74:25]: "My wife asks how the performance was, and there's just silence or a picture of the dog."

Cousin Sal [75:00]: "So I present it to the counter. It's a miracle."

6. Closing Remarks

The episode wraps up with Bill and Cousin Sal expressing their enjoyment of the new Over/Under win totals game. They encourage listeners to participate and tease future episodes where they might delve deeper into their betting strategies and predictions.

Bill Simmons [82:52]: "So there you go. The answer is six and a half."

Cousin Sal [83:18]: "Good job by you."

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Bill Simmons [07:09]: "I went with 11.5."

• Cousin Sal [09:14]: "I said 12."

• Bill Simmons [20:19]: "Seven and a half."

• Cousin Sal [31:56]: "Five and a half."

• Cousin Sal [57:46]: "I went eight and a half."

• Bill Simmons [74:25]: "My wife asks how the performance was, and there's just silence or a picture of the dog."

• Cousin Sal [75:00]: "So I present it to the counter. It's a miracle."

Conclusion

This episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast offers a thorough and entertaining dive into NFL team predictions for the 2025 season through the lens of Over/Under win totals. Bill and Cousin Sal's banter, combined with their analytical approaches, provide listeners with valuable insights and an engaging listening experience, whether they're hardcore sports fans or casual enthusiasts.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

You're listening to the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. FanDuel Sportsbook is the best place to bet on the NBA. We have these fun little Tuesday Friday player performance stuff. We have same game parlays. We have picks for me sometimes and boosts and all kinds of fun things. Get ready in the playoffs. Download the FanDuel Sportsbook app today to get in on the action. And by the way, the Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit theringer.com RG to learn more. Listen to the end of this episode for additional details. Must be 21/president select states gaming problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com hey, we launched Good hang with Amy Poehler. It's doing great. You can get it as a video podcast on Spotify. You can also get it on the amy Poehler Goodhang YouTube channel. Go check it out. This episode is brought to you by VRBO Private Vacation Rentals. With vrbo, you always get the whole house so you and your fellow fans can cheer on your team in peace. What's worse than watching a game with somebody who's not rooting for the same team? You're rooting for nothing. But that's why if you book a vacation house with vrbo, you know all the people in your house, they'll be friends, they'll be family. Ideally, they'll be the ones who also root for my teams. Plan a winning vacation. Make it a vrbo. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a prestige TV podcast yesterday. We covered the studio the first two episodes. People like the show. Me, Sean Fantasy. Joanna Robbins talked about that. I'm also gonn there on Sunday night. White Lotus episode seven. We already have that one in the bank. It's the last one. We were able to tape ahead of time because it looks like no screeners for the last episode, the 90 minute one. So we're gonna be doing that live two Sundays from now. New Rewatchables coming Monday night. We are doing I'm in Boston right now. We're doing Good Will Hunting tonight. So you can hear that as a podcast of the live show on Monday night. And then we're sticking around all weekend. Coolidge Corner, a place that I live for a little bit. Once upon a time, we're doing a little Coolidge Corner film festival. They have a theater that's been there forever and they've actually taken care of it. It's one of the best places to see movies in Boston. So we're showing heist movies. Boston movies all day Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I think we did nine movies total. Me and Sean and Chris are going to be there for a couple of them to talk afterwards. So if you're interested, I think there might be some tickets left. It's theringer.comevents to go. Check that out. So this is fun. This is like an unexpected Christmas. NFL win total over unders came out today, and cousin Sal and I decided we missed Guess the Lions. We're just going to do it again. We were going to play Guess the Lions with the overrunners. We intentionally did not look at them. They came out on Fanduel right before we taped this podcast. And that's what you're about to hear. But first, Pearl Jip. All right, taping this on a Thursday. Cousin Sal is here. Normally we just play Guess the Lions during the NFL season. We haven't seen Sal since the Super Bowl. The saddest look on his face every year knowing that it's come to an end. And now we came up with a new idea. Thursday, I'm doing a pod. You were available. FanDuel dropping NFL over under win totals. So we said last night, I'm not going to look, you're not going to look. And we're going to do guess the lines. We made our guesses and we're going to go through every team and see what our instincts were. What do you think?

[Cousin Sal]

This is a spectacular day. A new day in our calendar. Hopefully we could keep doing this. I mean, I've been sick all I was in Vegas. I come back from Vegas, I'm sick every time now. It's like come back with syphilis. I just have a cold. It doesn't help being next to nephew Kyle who fires up like 37 lung darts in 18 hours. It kills my throat. But anyway, I got some pep in my step. This is one of the five if they should do this, vandals should release the win total over unders the last Thursday in March. This would be one of the five best non football sports days of the year. I mean, between March Madness, the four Sweet 16 games, opening day baseball, and preseason over under win totals. Are you kidding me? Yeah. This is great.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, we should have gone live. This should have been an event. It should have been like when the NFL releases the schedule. Right? We should have been the one announcing the fanduel over unders for each team, trying to guess what they were. Yeah, we'll work on this. I think next year we can do an even bigger version of it. I know you go right from football just to a series of wagering on sports. You don't really know that. Well, other than basketball. Like, I'm sure you made a shitload of preseason baseball bets. March Madness. Yeah, you got some golf coming. There's some weird tennis stuff happening. What's the dumbest thing you bet on in the last six years?

[Cousin Sal]

I have Joker in the Miami Open. I have to wake up and bet soccer. And now there's like, you have to have like nine streaming services to have all the soccer capabilities for the world to worldwide gamble on it. But yeah, that's basically it. Just nonsensical soccer in the morning.

[Bill Simmons]

Like what country, what region of the.

[Cousin Sal]

World are we in? All of them. All of them. The ones.

[Bill Simmons]

All the parts of the world? Yes.

[Cousin Sal]

Is Greenland a country or do they belong to us now? I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

I bet them all it's a continent. I don't did that. Are they our 51st state? I haven't checked.

[Cousin Sal]

Are our cherished 51st state?

[Bill Simmons]

Yes.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Were you able to bet on Stephen A vs LeBron? Is there like a future bet there? Who's favored?

[Cousin Sal]

Stephen. Make no mistake, Stephen A. Would swing at him. He would mistake I've ever heard Stephen A.

[Bill Simmons]

They started first take Today two minute intro from the show credits of Molly and went to Stephen A. 17 straight minutes and it was incredible. Compelling TV. He's amazing. Was it really? I was really into it. Yeah, I really enjoyed it. He's really good. Yeah. I don't know where this goes, but I'll tell you this. If you're. If you're going to do the who has more to lose sweepstakes, I'm going to say LeBron has more to lose if this just gets worse and worse and worse.

[Cousin Sal]

Interesting. Really?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Well, I'm not saying he has more to lose. I'm saying he's just more famous. Here's Stephen A. Like, this is great. I'll keep this going as long as you want.

[Cousin Sal]

I don't know that LeBron's more. Stephen A. Could be our next president. I don't know who's more famous.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe that's how Stephen A. Wins. He becomes the next president and he abolishes the NBA. Max contract. That'll be his first thing. Okay. NFL regular season win totals. So we're going to go by. You want to go alphabetically or you want to go by divisions? How do you want to do it?

[Cousin Sal]

Probably divisions. I mean, I would really like to do 15 minutes on Jokic's no look pass and another 20 on whether Steph's tunnel shot went in. But okay, if you want to get right into it, it's fine.

[Bill Simmons]

The tunnel shot, is that Steph's fault that it was Senate? Like, should he have retweeted the angle and said that didn't actually go in?

[Cousin Sal]

He needs to apologize. I was saying that he's no longer a first ballot hall of Famer. I mean, he now drops the two or three. But I thought the. My favorite thing about it is typical NBA fashion, it took three days to review. Like, why didn't we get that second angle? An hour later we found out, like on a Thursday.

[Bill Simmons]

Mark Davis still at the monitor.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay.

[Cousin Sal]

Division? Yeah, let's do divisions.

[Bill Simmons]

We'll start with AFCs. Buffalo Bills, they went 13 and 4. We're going to tell you the only things that we know that we did work on were what other two divisions each team is playing, right? So the Buffalo bills were 13 and 4 last year. Next year they're playing the AFC North. Not awesome. NFC south, pretty good. So I'm going to say that's about an average degree. Yeah, it's a wash. I think that's fair.

[Cousin Sal]

And we should also say like, you know, we may have like some liens here, but these aren't our official picks. You don't want to tarnish your. What were you, 27 and 5 last year?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I'm never. I'm going to go 5 and 27 next year. I'll never top 27 and 5.

[Cousin Sal]

No, we're still missing like two key components. We haven't seen the draft, obviously, and we don't know the schedule. We know who everybody plays. We don't know like rest advantage. We don't know like, you know, who has three road games in a row and stuff like that.

[Bill Simmons]

Those are crucial. We know we don't know what's happening in the draft. None of this stuff just like. And we're trying to guess, what do we think Fanduel thought would be the perfect over under? Because the goal of this, when they're putting out these overrunners in March, how do we get the most action both ways on the over under last year, Dallas, they put it a win too high. Everybody bet. Well, this. I'm sorry it was your team, but everybody bet the under. Everybody kept betting the under and they had to move it from 10 and a half to 9 and a half, which was a really bad sign. So one of the things we're interested this year is Snapshot of in March when this comes out. And then how does it shift? They'll start putting action if people are banging the over. Like, if people start banging the Patriots over, they'll make it a minus 140, minus 145. So you'll get a sense of like, oh, who is America really starting to get behind? Which can either be a good thing or a bad thing. Right. So Buffalo. I went with 11.5. So 11 and a half wins as the over under. What'd you have?

[Cousin Sal]

I said 12. And again, I'm looking at these for the first time.

[Bill Simmons]

You can't say 12. You have to do a 0.5, right?

[Cousin Sal]

No, no, no. Half of them were regular square numbers.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, really? Oh, I didn't even know we were doing that. Okay.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, I wrote down the last years. They were like. You were right, though.

[Bill Simmons]

Of course.

[Cousin Sal]

So the. The cheating right off the top worked out 11 and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

I do. I knew this would be a new way for you to get bad. Meanwhile, you won guess the lines last year, and there's been a lot of talk about you and whether you've been cheating.

[Cousin Sal]

This doesn't count. This doesn't count.

[Bill Simmons]

Like, are you using PDs? What's going on over there?

[Cousin Sal]

So they went. They had 13 wins last year, and it's 11 and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

Yep.

[Cousin Sal]

And that's to say that the division got better or you just can't make them 12. I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, we should also mention this is crucial, too. Minus 140 already for the over at least. I'm in Boston, so I can bet it, and I could do a live bet as we're talking, but minus 140 already, which makes me wonder, do they bump that at some point. But I think Miami's probably a little either the same or a little worse than last year. Jets. I. Who knows? The Pats are the only one that you could say they'll definitely be better.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

So. And we. As far as we can tell, Buffalo didn't get worse. So I think they're fine.

[Cousin Sal]

I think that is, you know. You know, what they have out of Bosa is good. They just need, you know, basically, Bosa.

[Bill Simmons]

They're going to get the seven Bosa games.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. I mean, he looks awesome. That's good. I mean, he's definitely going to miss time, but they extended Allen, which is. Which is great. I mean, we don't. 11 and a half. 12 is fine. So you get it.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, I forgot to mention one variable that you have to factor in this, the schedule. So we're doing this by how they finished last year. So AFC's Buffalo is first place scheduled next year. Yeah, they'll have a bunch of night games. So all that stuff. Miami, 8, 9 last year, AFC North, NFC south, second place schedule and whatever this is. I might make a live under bet right now. What do you have for this one?

[Cousin Sal]

I have nine.

[Bill Simmons]

Nine. Wow. You really went round numbers.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, yeah. About half of mine. No, I got more. More halves, but yeah, I might be one.

[Bill Simmons]

I might be low last year. Yeah, yeah, they're eight, nine. I might be low. I said seven and a half. I don't like the vibe of that Dolphins team at all. And the answer is eight and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Eight and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

So I get a. I'm going under. Yeah, that's a guaranteed under for me.

[Cousin Sal]

Well, they had eight last year.

[Bill Simmons]

You want to imitate JJ talking about this or should I do it?

[Cousin Sal]

Go ahead, you do it. Go ahead. You start, I'll jump in.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know, bro. Eight and a half slow. Some must. Must win season. For McDaniel, it's a must win. It's got to win 10 games. Or is that keeping his job, Bro.

[Cousin Sal]

You'Re going to tell me Zach Wilson is going to step in there and do the job. I'm not buying it. I'm not buying it for sure.

[Bill Simmons]

You think he goes under?

[Cousin Sal]

That's a discussion for a different day. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. Eight and a half. Even money, both ways. So I. My prediction is that's going to be an under bet for a lot of people. All right, jets are Next. They were 5 and 12. Third place scheduled next year. Justin Fields now a quarterback, seventh pick in the draft. We'll see what they do with that. The one thing that could affect this is if they take Shadow Sanders with the seventh pick and basically get nothing out of that first round pick because they already took Fields. So I'm gonna say six and a half for these guys. What do you have?

[Cousin Sal]

All right, I get this. I said six. And did you see is five and a half? Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Wow.

[Cousin Sal]

Amazing. It was nine and a half with Rogers. It's five and a half with Justin Fields. That's a. They went way too high on Rogers, which we know. But five and a half, What a slap in the effing empire.

[Bill Simmons]

That's too. I think that's too low, don't you? New coach Aaron Glenn Fields. Different look than Rogers, but not necessarily a worse look. 7th pick in the draft.

[Cousin Sal]

I don't know I haven't seen like. All right, so how many games will they be favored in? One in their division. Home against the.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe the home Pats game, The home Dolphins game.

[Cousin Sal]

Maybe none of the AFC north games. Probably no. A couple of the NFC South Carolina.

[Bill Simmons]

If it's home against Carolina.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I think that's about home against New Orleans.

[Cousin Sal]

What a mess.

[Bill Simmons]

And then maybe one other shit team. All right. All right. This is the most exciting 1. The Patriots 4 and 13 new coach just spent money all over the place on a bunch of different positions that the fourth pick in the draft seems like about a 50, 50 chance. They're getting Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. Drake may year two to say the coaching staff will be better is an understatement. And they're going to have a fourth place schedule and they get to play the NFC South. There's a lot of things lining up for them to be the wash.

[Cousin Sal]

This could be ten and a half and you're going over. I don't know, ten and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

I'd be insulted. I think it should be 12 and a half. What do you have?

[Cousin Sal]

I have seven and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, that's what I had too. And the answer is seven and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

All right, that's fine.

[Bill Simmons]

That's fair.

[Cousin Sal]

That's where you want to be.

[Bill Simmons]

15 already. All right, so we're 2. You're up 2. 11 with me right now. Yeah. Does that go up? What if they get Abdul Carter or Taunter in the draft? Does that go up?

[Cousin Sal]

Well, you're very influential and I know you're.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm not influential with this.

[Cousin Sal]

You're over the moon about Stefon Diggs. You got your way there.

[Bill Simmons]

Not that, that one. I'm not. I'm, I'm. I'll work by, by the end of April I'll be over the moon on the dig signing right now. I'm. I'm kind of still confused. Although it does seem like they can get out of it after a year. But the, the 32 year old receiver coming off ACL surgery. I don't know.

[Cousin Sal]

I don't know. You're not going to be in a spot where you're going to want to lose that last game.

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Cousin Sal]

Which is where you were. Which when we typically go over some of these teams over unders. You have to factor that in and no, I think, I think you could be an 8, 9 team. You should be happy with 89 and Drake May 2nd year.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, the question is, could you be better than that? That's what we said with Washington last year, where they checked every box and both of us were, we both jumped on the over, but we kind of drew the line at could they be a playoff team.

[Cousin Sal]

You need to watch a Denver type situation, right? I think your situation's even closer to Denver, even though it's. I know Knicks was a rookie coming in, but older, whatever. Yeah, I think that's kind of what.

[Bill Simmons]

You have to do.

[Cousin Sal]

Sneak up there.

[Bill Simmons]

It's the recipe that works every year. And the question is whether it's the Patriots or another crappy team making the jump. It's did you improve your coach? Do you have a QB? Is your schedule easy? If you have those three things, it becomes very realistic to go from four to 10 wins. We see it all the time and I think they're a great candidate for this.

[Cousin Sal]

So we, I mean, you already sold, you already sold the nine part documentary for the 2025 Patriots. So I mean, good job by you, I guess.

[Bill Simmons]

Did they, did they greenlight that yet? Yeah, it's just about Drake May. It's not about the Patriots. It's. We're just with. It's like Truman Show. Remember that movie, Truman Show? It's that for Drake May. We just, we follow him around. All right, we're going to take a quick break and then we're going to do the rest of the Divisions. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We are getting close to the NBA playoffs, which means we are getting close to the NBA Finals, one of my favorite sporting events. Not just because it's really fun basketball at the highest possible level, but all the historical legacy stuff. It's my favorite. You've heard me talk about it on the podcast many times. Speaking of finals, Michelob Ultra has given me the chance to win tickets to the NBA Finals, which I hope Boston is a part of. Not only do they make a superior beer, they're also helping fans like you get closer to the game. Michelob Ultra Superior is worth playing for. Check out michelobulture.com NBAFinals to enter for a chance to win tickets. Michelob Ultra courtside NBA Finals sweepstakes. No purchase necessary. Open to US residents, excluding Maryland residents. 21 and up. Ends on May 5, 2025. See official [e-mail] Rules for price and detail. Message and data rates may apply. Void where prohibited. All right, come back. We're going to do the AFC North. There's a world where this is the best division. Next year, depending on what happens with Cleveland. Like if they took Sanders at second and he was good right away with the rest of the team. They have maybe, I don't know.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, let's try to remember to add up. Add up the over under wins to determine who's the best division. So yeah, we'll see.

[Bill Simmons]

This should. This could have the most Baltimore. So the AFC north is playing the AFC east and the NFC north.

[Cousin Sal]

Pretty tough.

[Bill Simmons]

Pretty tough. So for easy games, if the Bears are even mediocre to decent, there's no easy games in the NFC North. And then in the AFC east, maybe the jets, maybe the Dolphins, maybe the Pats, but maybe two of those three teams are like pretty frisky. So that's a pretty tough one. Baltimore, first place schedule. They're going to have Sunday night games, Monday night games. They're in the running for a Christmas game, a Thursday game. You know, they're going to have another monster schedule because they want to put Lamar on TV. I predicted 11 and a half for this.

[Cousin Sal]

That's exactly what I said.

[Bill Simmons]

The answer is 11 and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

There's 11 and a half. Okay, we got it. We Split it. And 1, 10, 2. They're really.

[Bill Simmons]

That's one of those. If the schedule stuff was a little easier, I would have gone 12 and a half. But I think you almost have to do the docket by one game just because you know it's probably headed for them. Okay.

[Cousin Sal]

They were 11 last year and they won 12 games. So it kind of. That's a nice settling spot for them last year.

[Bill Simmons]

Pittsburgh 10 and 7, second place schedule. We talked about the AFC East, NFC north, and as far as we know, they don't have a quarterback yet. Now they're running out of possibilities because the Giant signed two of the guys. Rogers is still lurking and just seems like he's milking it. There's Jackson Dart possibilities. I guess maybe they wanted to try to bo nix that situation. I don't. Not a lot of other options after that unless they want to play the Mason Rudolph card. And yet this is a team every year that goes over there. Over. Do you think they factored that in with this over, under pick or not?

[Cousin Sal]

You know what's weird with it? They didn't. So yesterday Russ signs with the Giants and fanduel's like, all right, so Rogers is the only missing piece at this point and probably to the Steelers. We don't give a shit. We can't wait. We can't wait. We're not going to move it a tick if he signs with Pittsburgh or not. I Don't. I mean, what do they have? They have Rudolph and they have Skyler Thompson. They should go for it. Go for it with those two. That'll be fun.

[Bill Simmons]

Or trade for. Or trade for not Kenny Pickett, but somebody of that ilk.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Give up. Like a six round pick. It's pretty brutal. I can't believe they didn't figure this out. So I guess eight and a half. That's what it was last year. Sounds great.

[Cousin Sal]

Would you have I said seven and a half? I don't like this team. What is it?

[Bill Simmons]

You're right. Seven and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Wow. You're doing better than me. You're plus two on me right now. And there's been some juice already. That is minus 120 as we're taping this. It is 151Pacific east time. Juice on the over. Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Because Mike Tomlin wins nine or 10 games every single year and that's just what he does.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. I don't know. This is a tough schedule. I think everybody knows how to beat the Steelers now. Need 17 points. Go get it.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe even 16.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Rogers going to the Steelers is probably the most fun outcome from a content standpoint. And there's a chance that Steeler fans will just hate his guts by November. But we'll see how it goes. Cincinnati. I had the hardest time with this one. I think of anyone in the afc. They're playing the AFC East, NFC north, third place schedule. They resigned their receivers. They have burrow. We'll see what happens with Hendrickson. Middle of the first round pick. I couldn't get to the 10 range with them. I went nine and a half. What'd you do?

[Cousin Sal]

Oh, wow. All right. I went ten and a half. I think they juiced this up because any fantasy player is not really paying attention to how bad their offensive line might be. Wants to bet the over in the Bengals. And it was ten and a half last year.

[Bill Simmons]

What is is ten and a half. You're fucking killing me.

[Cousin Sal]

There we go.

[Bill Simmons]

This is your new favorite game.

[Cousin Sal]

This is it. This counts as four. Four weeks, I think.

[Bill Simmons]

One thing with this one, though. There's already a lot of juice on the under. It's minus 130. The. The under 10 and a half. So I might be right. In two months, I don't see 11 wins for this team. That's a lot. 11 wins makes them one of the four best teams in the AFC. And you would take Buffalo over them. You would take KC over them. You would definitely take Baltimore over them. And Then it comes down to would you take like, are they in the Texans, Chargers kind of class or higher than that? Because this, this, that over under says they're higher than that.

[Cousin Sal]

I'm with you. I'm as right about the Bengals as I am as wrong about the Browns. And I feel like betting them to win 11. So it's going to be a tough schedule. They always get off to a slow start. I said they're a whole lot. They lost Alex Cap and Trent Brown, so it could be one of those years where Burrows running for his life. So I don't love them with 11 wins.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. We still don't know what's happening with hendrickson.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Cleveland 3 and 14 last year. Fourth place schedule and no Cap space whatsoever. Kenny Pickett maybe is the quarterback. Unless they take Sanders.

[Cousin Sal]

I love what you said. What'd you say? That was the funniest trade ever.

[Bill Simmons]

It was Pickett. Somehow Philly got like a six round pick out of it to trade Pickett, turn Pickett into Dorian Thompson. Robinson dtr. Like a six rounder. That's got to be it. I. I went low. I went five and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

You know, I said five and a half too. I'm regretting this. I think it could be even lower. They're miserable.

[Bill Simmons]

Nailed it. Five and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Is it okay?

[Bill Simmons]

Yep. So juice on that one too already. Minus 125. So people are banging the over. If you're banging the over, there's a case for it. You have to think they're taking Sanders and that he's going to be good right away. Right. He's Bo Nicks next year for them. And I don't know. I guess that's the case.

[Cousin Sal]

This is a weird year with the quarterbacks. It really is. There might be actually too many quarterbacks versus teams that are going to take quarterbacks in the first round. And I know I'll be wrong because everybody takes quarterbacks early.

[Bill Simmons]

But are.

[Cousin Sal]

Are the Browns and Titans definitely taking a quarterback or the Giants like Titans are?

[Bill Simmons]

I think Titans. I think Cam Ward is pretty locked into that one. All right. McShay had some intel in his newsletter today that he thought there was a possibility the Giants were trying to trade up to one and basically got the word that Titans were taking word. Everyone seems to think he's going first. The odds reflect it. Right now. I don't think the -1200 on FanDuel to be the first pick.

[Cousin Sal]

I thought I'd go for some of those. I put money on dart and Sanders. Just thinking like maybe someone does something really stupid here. But because I don't feel like we've heard a lot about. I know Warren's getting a little bit buzzed, but not to warrant. Minus 1200.

[Bill Simmons]

I told our guy Jack at FanDuel. I said I wanted them to have the. Bill Simmons runs around his house with his arms up in the air, screaming euphorically. 1, 2, 3, 4. Draft scenario that I want to be able to bet.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh.

[Bill Simmons]

Ward goes first, Cleveland takes Sanders second, Giants take Travis Hunter third. And then we get Abdul Carter fourth. And that I'm running around my house like this.

[Cousin Sal]

That's fine.

[Bill Simmons]

And I want to be able. And by the way, we should be able to bet that they don't have the exact order draft things yet because I think it's too far away. They usually do it two weeks before the draft. I want it now.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, we're with it.

[Bill Simmons]

Like fucking put it up. Let's go. Right. Bill says I want to bet all kinds of scenarios.

[Cousin Sal]

Bangs his shoulder on the fridge. Separates it much like Abdul Carter. God.

[Bill Simmons]

Abdul's fine. All right, AFC south, now they're playing the AFC west and the NFC west this year. What are your thoughts on that?

[Cousin Sal]

I think that's a. That's fine. I think that's fine. They play themselves, so that's what's. That's what's good.

[Bill Simmons]

That was a tepid endorsement.

[Cousin Sal]

Well, you know what I'm also looking at, so. So let's add that up. 33 wins for the AFC east and 35 for the AFC North.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay. Well, that number's about to drop for the AFC. So Houston 10 and 7 last year, and then they're playing the west and the West.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I think you could argue they're worse. Right? I don't know when Tank Dell's coming back. Diggs is gone. He was gone anyway. They traded Tunsil. They got a second round pick for him. The AFC South, I'm assuming, will be a whiff better than it was last year. And they're playing a first place schedule. I wanted to go ten and a half and I couldn't get there. I went nine and a half. What'd you do?

[Cousin Sal]

That's what I have. Is it nine and a half? It can't be ten.

[Bill Simmons]

We'll see. I. I did think about the round. Ten. Yep, nine and a half. Ooh, Breaking.

[Cousin Sal]

Got it right.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Not only do we get it right. Minus 160 on the under. So that's the biggest. So the most action we've seen. So Far is the. Is that. Minus 160. Vegas doesn't like Houston.

[Cousin Sal]

They're a weird team.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. Fired their offensive coordinator.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. They should mow through this division. And they were. And how confident were we in CJ Stroud last year? And then we didn't get that confidence back into like the first round of the playoffs. So it's strange. They signed a lot of one year players. Cam Robinson, Danell Hunter, Trent Brown. We'll see what happens.

[Bill Simmons]

Indianapolis 8, 9 last year, second place schedule. Our guide, the Bundo is a little higher on the. Anthony Richardson. Don't count this guy out. He was banged up last year.

[Cousin Sal]

This is the same.

[Bill Simmons]

Going to be the fu comeback year for Richardson. If that doesn't happen. Daniel Dimes is right behind him. What'd you go.

[Cousin Sal]

I want to have a opinion about Jones. I'm not there yet, but I feel like. And I have no reason to support them. But maybe that was as disastrous a situation as you could come from going to the Giants.

[Bill Simmons]

Giants. Tornado. Giants. Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. And now coming to the Colts. Maybe. Maybe that's a good deal.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, sounds like you like it. I have seven and a half. What'd you have?

[Cousin Sal]

We're on. We're on par here. Seven and a half for me too.

[Bill Simmons]

And it's seven and a half and minus 110 both ways. Not a lot of Colts actually. All right, we're. So you're still up plus two on me. But we've nailed the last couple. Okay. This one was a hard 1. Jacksonville, third place schedule west and West, 4 and 13 last year. You know, I don't know what this team does. I don't understand it. Like they wave Christian Kirk and then just sign another receiver for the money and now they're paying two fine receivers a double salary. Basically.

[Cousin Sal]

You're not excited about Diamond Brown?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I'm not. Fifth pick in the draft. Could be Genti, could be Tyler Warren. Everybody likes him as like an awesome tight end. They just keep throwing resources at the receiver position and never happens. But I was. I was between five and a half and six and a half for this new coach was the big thing for me and I went six and a half. What'd you have?

[Cousin Sal]

Did I go too high with seven and a half? I just feel like all these teams are the same.

[Bill Simmons]

You did not go too high. Seven and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Whoa. Seven and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

Killing me.

[Cousin Sal]

You want to cash out? Hit the cash out button.

[Bill Simmons]

Is there a bet back? What's that bet back thing? Fando has not only is it 7 and a half? Minus 130. So action on the Jaguars. What am I missing? Yeah, what are we missing?

[Cousin Sal]

I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

Just bad division.

[Cousin Sal]

Bad. Bad division. Bad owner, though, too. Like, that's why you can't ever take them. It doesn't ever seem to work out for them, injuries or anything, but I thought they were about the same as the Colts. I mean, they shouldn't be that much less than the Colts.

[Bill Simmons]

Our agent, James Baby Doll Dixon. Yeah. Baby. Likes to wish luck from people. Wish luck to some people from time to time. Some people recently got some luck.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh, yeah?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. There's some people in the Hollywood industry who might have. Might have been phased out of their jobs. There was luck was wished by James Baby Doll Dixon. I wish a lot. I wish everyone a lot of luck. Going over Jacksonville -7 and a half. I'm just telling you right now, that's insane. I don't see it at all. You really have to believe this is the year with Lawrence. It's like it's now year six. Like.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm not saying it's not going to happen with him, but I'm not betting that scenario. Right.

[Cousin Sal]

I don't like it either, but, you know, it all ends up being like they come up with a number, how many games they'll be favored in. Right. And so that's probably it. Playing that garbage division, they'll be favored in every home game, and they'll be favored against NFC west at least two.

[Bill Simmons]

Of the home games. One of them, yeah. Okay. Tennessee 3 and 14 last year. Weston west, fourth place, schedule. Cam Ward. We're assuming they take him first. Yeah. I don't know their offensive line situation, if it's much better than it was last year. I was trying to think, is this the safest bet to be the worst team in the league? In the AFC next year, Tennessee. Is there any team you like less?

[Cousin Sal]

No. And I don't know why I put this at five and a half. I think I regret that, because they could make it nice and easy and. Well, I don't want to sway you, but did you go lower?

[Bill Simmons]

No, I had. So initially I penciled in five and a half, and then after I did all the divisions for the afc, and I was like, man, who's the worst team? Like, there's gonna. We see this every year. There's a four and a half, there's a three and a half, and there's none of those in the AFC that I had. And I. So I ended up with a four And a half. So we will see. The answer is five and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Wow.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, you nailed me again.

[Cousin Sal]

This is, this is my new thing. This is my jam. Let's just do keep doing this every week.

[Bill Simmons]

Not only is it five and a half, it's up to minus 130.

[Cousin Sal]

I wouldn't go over on that at all.

[Bill Simmons]

So if you're doing that, you're expecting Cam Ward to get drafted and be good right away.

[Cousin Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

And you're going to say like rookie Cam Ward is significantly better than Will Levis, which it's not inconceivable.

[Cousin Sal]

No. I'm still having nightmares of that game One bet against Caleb Williams, who was supposed to be the rookie. I bet Will Levis, they had a giant lead on the Bears. And then Will Levis is throwing passes from his ass and staring at pick sixes.

[Bill Simmons]

It's just not my favorite with that with you is when you then get mad at Will Levis like this was his fault, like you bet on him. It's like, I can't believe this. Will Levis, it's like you can't. No signs at all. He makes today.

[Cousin Sal]

He threw the game. If we were to write down three games that players threw, quote, whatever. I know, Fandor, we're not getting in trouble.

[Bill Simmons]

That's felt like what it would have looked like if somebody actually. Yeah, I see what you're saying.

[Cousin Sal]

Right. If you had made a. Make a movie about it, that's what it would look like.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, here's the thing. We only had the jets at five and a half, Cleveland at five and a half and Tennessee at five and a half. So far we have no four and a halfs. So one of those three will be at four and a half by like June or July because that's just how this shit goes.

[Cousin Sal]

That's right. That's fair. So just to recap, east 33 wins, north 35, south 30.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay. Going to the AFC west, which might be good for all we know, Kansas City 15 and two last year playing the AFC south in the NFC East. So you're talking Giants are going to suck. Three of those AFC south teams might suck. Houston might not be very good. Sorry. Your Dallas team might not be very good. And Washington and Philly would be the two hard games out of those eight. But they'll have the first place schedule. They're going to be in all the night games. But that's about as good of a. Is there a better division draw than AFC South, NFC east, maybe West, NFC West, AFC South.

[Cousin Sal]

That's pretty good.

[Bill Simmons]

Those would be two of the three I want.

[Cousin Sal]

One of the teams has both Souths, I think that's in the nfc. But one of the divisions.

[Bill Simmons]

But so I went, I went 12 and a half for this.

[Cousin Sal]

That's what I did. And I wonder if it's even light. Tell me what it is.

[Bill Simmons]

It's light. It's 11 and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

That's wrong.

[Bill Simmons]

That's very weird. Do your spiel. Just do it. You do it every year?

[Cousin Sal]

Well, just to bet Chiefs at 6 to 1, bet Mahomes.

[Bill Simmons]

Just do all of them.

[Cousin Sal]

Well, first of all, everything you say, they go through it. They had 15 frigging wins last year. Every year they have a first place schedule. Every year they possibly play the first Thursday night game. Every year they're going to play on Christmas. Every year they're going to have six primetime games. They end up with 13, 14, 15 wins. How do you make this 11 and a half? They won the division by four games last year.

[Bill Simmons]

All right.

[Cousin Sal]

The Chargers might be a little better. Raiders a tiny bit better. Is Denver going to be better? I'm all in on over 11 and a half. That's the, that is embarrassing. That's ball material.

[Bill Simmons]

Super bowl seven to one for them. Mahomes eight to one. Mvp.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

At the Mahomes layaway MVP bet plan. Was that your idea or houses? I can't remember.

[Cousin Sal]

I mean it's. I'm not going to. It's just so it should be out there for everybody.

[Bill Simmons]

I just do it just like bet that every year and it'll win three out of five times.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. The kcd like a cd, like a savings to book. But yeah, that's right. You're not going to wait seven or eight years to cash in on those.

[Bill Simmons]

Or Chiefs plus 360 to win the conference. Just do it. Just do it. Every year. You win three out of the four years and you're getting incredible multiples on your, on your wages and they had.

[Cousin Sal]

A decent off season with the free ages. They lost Tuney but they, you know, they got Nick Bolt, they extended Bolton, Jalen Moore, Trey Smith, they franchise tag. They're going to be fine.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm marking that one down. I feel like that's 11 and a half. That's 11 and a half for what? Another week. Come on.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

What are we doing? Chargers 11 and 6, second place schedule, AFC South, NFC East. And I don't know, they lost some guys now some guys weren't playing full seasons for them. Right. The wide receiver room. We'll see what they do in the draft. Running back, I don't know. There's some scope position stuff. Last year, easy schedule, overachieved. Didn't. The season did not end great. And yet I felt like it's going to be ten and a half because of Harbaugh and Herbert. What'd you have?

[Cousin Sal]

Wow. I had nine and a half. I don't know. I think that's tough.

[Bill Simmons]

And you hit it again. Europe four.

[Cousin Sal]

Wow. Jesus. Look at this. Look at this.

[Bill Simmons]

Nine and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Ten and a half, huh? If the Chiefs are 11 and a half and you thought I don't know. There's still the Chargers, remember. Right.

[Bill Simmons]

The. So my thinking was the her. The Harbaugh year too with he. They weren't supposed to be as good as they were last year, but they were able to on the fly. Add some dudes, make some and now like one more free agency and draft. Could the arrow be pointing up? But Vegas is saying no.

[Cousin Sal]

I don't want to screw anything up. But I know some charges people. They like the tight end out of Michigan, Loveland.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, okay. There you go.

[Cousin Sal]

That could be a nice little thing for them.

[Bill Simmons]

Denver was 10 and 7 last year playing a third place schedule because the Chargers passed them. That's helpful, right? And we have them. AFC South, NFC East. I went eight and a half. Would you go?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, I'm right there with you. Eight and a half. It's gotta be eight and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

It's eight and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Minus 105. So just a whiff of action on that one. Toward the under. And then last but not least, this one's a hard one. The Las Vegas Raiders to get Geno Smith. And they got rid of our guy. Antonio Pierce.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Who I don't feel like is probably getting hired anytime soon for another head gig. Just would be my guess. And they replaced him with a pumpkin. Jack P. Carroll.

[Cousin Sal]

Right. A lot of gum chewing. Max crosby gets extended 4th place.

[Bill Simmons]

Schedule plus AFC south plus NFC East. And by your theory you think at least in the home games they might be favored like five times. Yeah, I went five and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh, I went a little higher. They were six and a half last year. I think they may perceive this Geno Smith thing as an upgrade. Even though they didn't have. They only had four ones.

[Bill Simmons]

I said six and a half and you nailed it. Exactly. And not only did you nail it. Minus 1:30. Now action on the Raiders. I should have seen that one.

[Cousin Sal]

Interesting.

[Bill Simmons]

You're killing me. You beat me by five.

[Cousin Sal]

So this is the.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm firing all my scouts and all my helpers and I've got to.

[Cousin Sal]

Sorry.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know why I'm just off left and right. Or here's the thing, maybe I'm not off. Maybe we'll look back in December and be like, oh, Simmons is first instinct. Maybe we should.

[Cousin Sal]

Well, that's what you should do. You should. You should mark your biggest differences.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm doing it.

[Cousin Sal]

That's going to be. So 36 wins for that division. That's the tops. That's more than the AFC north projected, 36 for the West.

[Bill Simmons]

And by the way, God bless Pete Carroll, but He's in his mid-70s. Geno Smith, 34 years old. I'm not sure if they offensive line. Would you even go C + on the offensive line? Bowers we like, but yeah, there was a lot of work left of that team.

[Cousin Sal]

There's still fourth best in the division and there's still two games behind Denver according to this.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, they just drew the short straw with that division is the big issue. Six games relocating all the. All those games are going to stink. All right, one more break and then we'll do the NFC this episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra Michelob Ultra A superior light beer and the ultimate trophy. Win or lose, you're bound to enjoy the ride with a good beer in hand. Michelob ultra crisp, refreshing, only 95 calories. A superior light beer. No matter the game, sport or season, Superior is worth playing for. So sign up for our ultra [e-mail] courtside and you can enjoy some of these games with a nice beer in your hand. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2025 Anheuser Busch Michelob Ultra registered light beer St. Louis, Missouri must be 21 plus to order alcohol. Alcohol available only in select markets. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn. During the season, every baseball team plays 162 games. It's a true test of endurance. It's not enough to have a hot month or two. You need sustained dominance throughout. Well, the same is true for your small business. It's not enough to have a great Q2 or even a great year. You want year over year growth that starts with better hires that'll be there for the long haul. To find Those hires, use LinkedIn. LinkedIn has strong hiring data and insights that you won't find anywhere else to help pair you with the best candidates. From unique skills and interests to the connections you have in common. Based on LinkedIn data, 72% of small businesses say that LinkedIn helps them find high quality talent. LinkedIn also lets you go beyond people who are actively applying in a given week. 171 million LinkedIn members aren't actively seeking jobs, but they are open to new opportunities. That's a big pool to miss out on. If you're not hiring with LinkedIn, find your next great hire on LinkedIn. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com Simmons. That's LinkedIn.com Simmons to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. All right, during that commercial break, I. I licked my wounds. I fired two people and. And trying. Trying to come back. There's only 16 teams left, and you're up five. You know, you found your calling. You found the perfect game, and you.

[Cousin Sal]

Duke was in your corner, and he almost didn't let you out for the seventh round here, and you're like, no, no, no. Don't you dare throw that towel in. But all right, let's see what you say.

[Bill Simmons]

I think it's a damn show. He thinks it's a damn fight. Philadelphia are defending super bowl champions. I know that kills you just to hear those words.

[Cousin Sal]

Disgusting.

[Bill Simmons]

And guess what? They have endless amounts of money to just. I know they lost some starters they didn't lose any of, like, their best eight or nine guys.

[Cousin Sal]

I don't do, man. It doesn't make sense.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't get it. I don't care.

[Cousin Sal]

I get people. You know, I have smart people telling me, oh, just follow the money. It's like, no, it just.

[Bill Simmons]

Just roll it over and just keep rolling it over. And the Bills do eventually. Okay, cool.

[Cousin Sal]

Creative accounting. It's what the Niners did. Yeah, just. I know it's sour grapes, but whatever.

[Bill Simmons]

They're paying 50 million a year for the QB, 57 million for the two receivers.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And now 12 million a year for Saquon Barkley. Somehow that's all legal under the cap. They've Jalen Carter coming. They paid Bond, who's like, oh, yeah. Oh, my God, somebody's going to grab him. Nope, they kept him. But I get the bottle because you have to just keep nailing the draft. You let the veterans go, and you move those draft picks, you move in and it makes sense. It's just. It's just weird. But when the salary cap goes up. 30 million every year. I just can't believe any team can afford two primetime receivers and a quarterback.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, the Cowboys did that. 90 million over the cap. Like, we just want to pay three guys and we can't do it, so.

[Bill Simmons]

Right, but, but maybe you can pay the three guys. Maybe that's the lesson. You pay. Parsons, Lamb, and Dak and everybody else could pay three guys. Why can't you pay three guys?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, just draft Georgia offensive linemen and defensive tackles and in two, three years, they'll all work out. They'll be fine, they'll dominate.

[Bill Simmons]

What was your reaction to the, whatever was going on on the social media the last 24 hours with the guy claiming that Dak might get traded to the Cleveland Browns?

[Cousin Sal]

I know you, I ignored it. I, I, you know, can't even figure.

[Bill Simmons]

Out how that would work.

[Cousin Sal]

Well, you know, it's like, you know when we have friends telling us, you gotta bet this, you gotta bet this. And depending on the friend, you're like, no, I'm gonna stay away. That's kind of how I was with this rumor mill. Like, whoever was passing it along, I was like, oh, that guy. Credibility. This is dumb. But, yeah, that.

[Bill Simmons]

So the thing would be, you would take desean's contract and trade that and just get killed for a year, but you would then be able to reset your. I don't even get. But now you wouldn't have a quarterback.

[Cousin Sal]

They would have to lead Jerry off in handcuffs, a straight jacket. The guys at the white coats would just have to take him away at that point.

[Bill Simmons]

He's like, I've traded dak Prescott for DeShawn and a future second round pick, and I'm going to become a professional actor.

[Cousin Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

Taylor Sheridan is building a new show around me as an aging NFL owner who's lost his mind.

[Cousin Sal]

Take three. Three cheerleaders of your choice, too. I'm out of here. Whatever you want.

[Bill Simmons]

Philadelphia, 14 and 3 last year. Yikes.

[Cousin Sal]

That's not true, is it?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Playing the NFC north and the AFC west, that's pretty hard.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

So your easiest games are Vegas and Chicago. Out of those eight, not to mention first place schedule, they're playing Thursday, the first game of the year.

[Cousin Sal]

Not to mention no one ever wins this division. Two years in a row. Just not allowed.

[Bill Simmons]

I, I, I really wanted to go 12 and a half and I couldn't do it. And I'm an 11 and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

That's where I'm. It's gotta be 11 and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

And it's 11 and a half. This is even money both ways.

[Cousin Sal]

I can't, I swear. I'm not cheating.

[Bill Simmons]

Philly minus 165 to win the division, by the way. Oh, just for the record, since we did the AFC ones. Casey's minus 150. Texans plus 140. Baltimore minus 135 and the Bills are minus 210.

[Cousin Sal]

Those are new too. Those divisions weren't up till today either. That's great.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh really?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, that's great. No, they just had conference and Super.

[Bill Simmons]

Bowl Pat's plus 650. Bengals plus 190. So it looks like the opportunity would be the AFC South. If you can talk yourself into the Colts of plus 290 and I'm not sure I want to talk about.

[Cousin Sal]

That's where they are.

[Bill Simmons]

Plus two ninety. I don't know.

[Cousin Sal]

Say Texans were 160.

[Bill Simmons]

Minus Texans are plus 140. Jags are plus 250.

[Cousin Sal]

Plus 140 Texans. Yeah, we can't bet the Souths. Come on, let's not do it.

[Bill Simmons]

And then Chargers plus 330 and Broncos plus 490. Raiders 12 to 1. If you want to get excited about that for your division, well, let's do the Overrunners first. All right, coming back. So we have Washington 12 and 5 last year. I forgot they won that many games. I knew they were a playoff team, but shit, that's an unbelievable record. The Pats got 12 and five. I lose my mind.

[Cousin Sal]

Their over under was six and a half and they won 12 games.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh yeah, they almost doubled it.

[Cousin Sal]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

Second place schedule, NFC North, AFC West. Um, I battled between nine and a half and ten and a half for this and I went ten and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

All right. I upped it from nine and a half to ten. So I have ten. You have ten and a half, motherfucker.

[Bill Simmons]

Nine and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Really?

[Bill Simmons]

Wow.

[Cousin Sal]

Wow. No trust.

[Bill Simmons]

Little action on the under too. Minus 120 under.

[Cousin Sal]

Interesting in a dumb way here. Like just get out. Like give Ertz and Debo. I don't. Is he going to make a difference? Laramie, Tunsil. I feel like they. Houston gave him up too easily. Maybe there's something there more than Bobby Wagner. Some. Some of these signings. Kinlaw. I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

How is this team three wins worse? If Daniels is healthy, let's say. Let's say he plays the whole year. How would. How would they not be a 10 win team? Oh, three worst.

[Cousin Sal]

They won 12.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, yeah, they won 12 and they won in the playoffs. And now nine and a half is their over under. That seems weird to me. I think they're anticipating the schedule is going to be harder, but that's kind of nuts.

[Cousin Sal]

I wonder if they look at like point Differential from last year. Like, well, those really. Was that really a 12 win year or wasn't, you know, also really good coaching staff.

[Bill Simmons]

Nobody left. They kept everybody. That's a weird one. I'm going to mark that one down. So plus 100 over nine and a half wins for them right now, the Cowboys. Did you go 8, 9 or 7 and 10 last year? What did we decide?

[Cousin Sal]

You try to give me an extra win. They were seven and ten. Disgusting.

[Bill Simmons]

Seven and ten. Playing the NFC north and the AFC west in Philly and Washington four times and that was enough for me to go seven and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh, I bumped it to eight. I figured this is a team that won 12 games three years in a row. They fell apart last year. This is America's team. They got. They can't give everyone free money. I have eight.

[Bill Simmons]

What is it? Seven and a half. Here comes the comeback, baby. I'm back down to minus five.

[Cousin Sal]

Wow.

[Bill Simmons]

Seven and a half and plus 100 on the over. I like the under.

[Cousin Sal]

Embarrassing. Man. That is embarrassing.

[Bill Simmons]

Why are you guys going to be good? What's the case?

[Cousin Sal]

Selectively aggressive during a the free agent period. We extended OSA. We got Fowler guy at 10 and a half sacks last year.

[Bill Simmons]

What does selectively aggressive mean? Does that even. I've never heard that phrase in my life.

[Cousin Sal]

I'm telling you exactly what it is. You sign Javante Williams and Miles Sanders, you get your punt, not only your punter, your punt returner and your long snapper tied up. You get that. We're good. Seven and a half. Wow.

[Bill Simmons]

Might have to bring baby doll back in to wish you a lot of luck.

[Cousin Sal]

Wow.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

This is a 12 year team. Two years ago, the 12 win team.

[Bill Simmons]

They're not going to win the super bowl in the2020s, which will mean three straight Super bowl less decades for you. But at least you have Juan Soto.

[Cousin Sal]

How dare you.

[Bill Simmons]

We have Juan Soto. I'm praising you wearing the Mets hat. Open day of the season today, Juan.

[Cousin Sal]

Soto is going to be the Cowboys quarterback. In like three years.

[Bill Simmons]

You'll see New York Giants 3 and 14 last year. Tough division plus NFC North, AFC West. And they're paying Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for some reason. Why not pay? That's why not just pick one of those guys.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, they got to get hard knocks back in New York. I know Joe Shane's going to lock his doors. I got to let anybody in. But they have that, that quarterback room with Jameis Ross and Tommy DeVito. What? Laughs and that's before they even Throw any pick sixes.

[Bill Simmons]

What did they possibly see from Russell Wilson in the last six games of the season with the Steelers? To think he's anything more than like a $5 million quarterback, I do not understand it. What is that? What's the game plan for that? And you have Jameis, who's. I would probably rather have Jameis at gunpoint. Wouldn't really want either of them. Who'd you rather have, Jameis or Russell Wilson?

[Cousin Sal]

Coin flip. No, I'm. No reason. $10 million.

[Bill Simmons]

You're paying one guy 4 million and the other guy, like 20.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, I like it. This was my favorite Cowboy signing the free agency. Russell Wilson to the Giants. It was. It was the best. I mean, honestly, like, you were selectively.

[Bill Simmons]

Aggressive at cheering for it.

[Cousin Sal]

Well, we're not getting 2015. Russell Wilson, he doesn't run. He's bad in the pocket. If that offensive line was anything like it was with Daniel Jones, it's going to be a disaster for him. Him. Right.

[Bill Simmons]

It went bad for him in Seattle. Near the end. He went to Denver. It went so bad that they paid him to go away and then went to the Steelers, who completely quit on everybody in the last four weeks of the season. And now you have day ball and Shane basically trying to save their jobs, telling us we don't want to take a rookie quarterback three because we won't be here when he starts being good. And now there it's Wilson vs Russell is Wilson vs Winston's nuts.

[Cousin Sal]

But I'm the other way. I'm like, why even keep day ball around? Because you're not going to win with this team. And this is going to be his last year. Right. This, this Russell Wilson thing, I mean, they're a mess. They offered Darius Slate more money than they did Saquon.

[Bill Simmons]

What was that? Yeah, I picked four and a half for this. I think this is going to be our first four or three.

[Cousin Sal]

I'm going to say five. I don't even know why, but okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Five and a half. You win again.

[Cousin Sal]

Is it really?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

I might want to book that. Five and a half from people.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, that's a disaster. What's the division odds?

[Bill Simmons]

Division odds. Giants 20 to 1. Is that the biggest one we've had so far? Cleveland's 23 to 1. Dallas 7 to 1. Washington plus 2 50. Eagles minus 165. I like, don't mind that. Washington's a play.

[Cousin Sal]

Washington's a play.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't mind that one at all. Okay. NFC North.

[Cousin Sal]

So. So the NFC East 34 wins, AFC East, 33. I don't know about that.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't agree with that Giants number at all. In fact, I'm going to make my first, like, market down prediction. I think that's four and a half by the summer, right? I don't think that stays there.

[Cousin Sal]

Can I tell a story being in Vegas? So I bet the Giants have the worst record in the league. Last year and they were 3 and 14, right. But it tied with three other teams. So it's a four way split. So I go to cashless. I don't have to say what casino this is, but I go to cash it in. So I should. You know, I was about to win $1,300. So if you split it four ways, I win 300 and change. So I present it to the counter. It's a miracle. I'm cashing a futures ticket from last year. And the guy's like, nope, this is a loser. I was like, well, how is this a loser? I pull up on my phone, there's four teams with three with three wins. Then he brings this guy over. Couldn't have been older than 19 years old. He's got this thing that resembles a phone that he's looking into. The Giants lose on a tiebreaker to the Browns. And he lists six tiebreaking scenarios. And they lost on the sixth tie. I was like, wait a minute, isn't this Dead Heat Rules? And it's like, no, we don't do Teddy, sir. This is how we do it. And you lost on the sixth tiebreaker. I'm like, all right. I don't even know what you're looking into, by the way. You could be, you know, you could be. I'm not sure what you could be, but. And I hate when they're indignant about it, like, yeah, like TSA is like when you fly from. And they're like, you have to take your laptop out. Like, all right. Well, I just flew in from Fort Worth and I didn't have to. And they're like, they're so dickish about it. But anyway, I lost because of the six tiebreaker.

[Bill Simmons]

That feels like fraud.

[Cousin Sal]

I know. It's like all this rooting I did for nothing.

[Bill Simmons]

Kind of wish you had named the casino, but all right. That's unbelievable. Yeah. NFC North, Detroit, 15 and two last year. That's not happening again. They do play the NFC east and the AFC North. So Giants, that's an easy game. Maybe your team's easy.

[Cousin Sal]

Steelers.

[Bill Simmons]

Brown's easy. Maybe Steelers are easy. If they don't get a quarterback.

[Cousin Sal]

A.

[Bill Simmons]

Lot of trouble with this. I'm going to say eleven and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

That's what I have. Eleven and a half. Is it higher?

[Bill Simmons]

It is ten and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

That's bad. That's wrong.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I'll tell you this much. There's action on the under of all things.

[Cousin Sal]

Wow.

[Bill Simmons]

Minus 140. Under 10 and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

I'm sorry. That's wrong. This team had the year from hell injury wise. You're not going to find a worse example of like a team that was plagued with injuries and they won 15 games and now you're taking four and a half games off their total. They can get their whole defense back. I know the division's tough.

[Bill Simmons]

They lost both coordinators.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

That's not nothing. Right. They. They had a horrible end to the season. Yep. And they lose.

[Cousin Sal]

Call to Detroit Lions. Your team four and a half wins.

[Bill Simmons]

They replaced them though. They replaced them with a cornerback everybody likes.

[Cousin Sal]

They did? Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know. And we haven't seen the draft yet.

[Cousin Sal]

I like the over. I'm saying I like the over. Why is that four and a half different? Like Minnesota is not going to win 14 games. So they'll. Right. I don't know. I don't even know that the division's better.

[Bill Simmons]

So you would Bet the Lions plus 120 at over 10 and a half right now? Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

11 and 6.

[Bill Simmons]

I really like that one too. I almost. That line's so suspicious. I almost feel like we don't know something.

[Cousin Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

Like what do they know that we don't know?

[Cousin Sal]

That Dan Campbell bit all the kneecaps off. There's none left.

[Bill Simmons]

Dan Campbell has been deranged all off season. Minnesota was 14 and 3 last year and they changed their quarterback from the great Sam Darnold to J.J. mcCarthy who we have not seen play NFL yet. Tougher schedule. Second place. I. I can't. This is the low, biggest drop off. 14 and three. But I. I went nine and a half for them. I don't see how it can be in the tens.

[Cousin Sal]

I went eight and a half. I think this is an impossible one to pick. I think nine and eight would be good for them.

[Bill Simmons]

You motherfucker. Is it eight and a half?

[Cousin Sal]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

That is plus 115 right now. Wow. You're really good at this. Guessing the over unders your final destiny. This is it. You found the G. You found the gimmick. We've been podcasting since 07. You figured it out. Unbelievable.

[Cousin Sal]

I did it. You're gonna have to pull me in 10 years.

[Bill Simmons]

I think you've clinched. I think I'd have to get all the rest ones just to tie you.

[Cousin Sal]

That's it.

[Bill Simmons]

What a beating this was. Yeah. So that is a full fledged. We don't trust J.J. mcCarthy number.

[Cousin Sal]

So that's the biggest drop off. Five and a half from 14 and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

Five and a half drop off. And J.J. mcCarthy might be good.

[Cousin Sal]

Right? Right.

[Bill Simmons]

Vikings, dare I say a little. Nobody believes in us.

[Cousin Sal]

There's still some Aaron Rodgers if you want.

[Bill Simmons]

14 and 3 last year. A lot of the guys are still in this locker room. They went 14 and three.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. Green Bay, they went 11 and six last year. Third place, schedule. And I'll probably regret this, But I went nine and a half. I did think it was ten and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

It's gotta be nine and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

And it's nine and a half. But plus 115 on the over. So they're minus 135 on the under.

[Cousin Sal]

I think that's just right for them.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. So division odds now. Detroit plus 110. Green Bay plus 250. Bears plus 450. And Minnesota with the worst odds of anyone at plus 550. But I should have done that before. We did after we did the Bears.

[Cousin Sal]

Right. Well, now you're going to. You can maybe lock in there.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe I can cheat. Well, I had eight and a half for them anyway. They're five and 12 last year. NFC East, AFC North. They spent a lot of money in the lines. They're going to have a high draft pick. And with the way the division's kind of falling back to them a little bit, it seems like an eight and a half. What'd you have?

[Cousin Sal]

I went nine. Only because it was nine last year.

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Cousin Sal]

Like, wasn't that weird? Remember we were betting them not to make the playoff. Do we bet them under nine or do we bet them not to make the playoffs? I feel like they're in love with the Bears. The fans are in love with the Bears. I know. They fix that offensive line. I have nine.

[Bill Simmons]

It is eight and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Plus 120 for the over on that one.

[Cousin Sal]

Not touching. Not touching.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. But that is a stay away. Okay.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. So 1918. So that's 37 wins. Is that the most? That's the most for any division. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

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[Cousin Sal]

They may get a break for the.

[Bill Simmons]

South and then, you know, they're bringing their receivers back, bringing the team back. It felt like a nine and a half to me, Sal.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh really? Oh, I don't think you can make any of these teams over eight and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, that's what I did and you were correct. Eight and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

This is like, this is embarrassing for you.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm at the stage now where I'm bringing the shortstop to pitch the nice thing he's throwing his knuckleball.

[Cousin Sal]

I mean this could be a just a giant Bill Simmons meme for 90 minutes. This is great.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm going to make the Walton Goggins finding out that his friend had sex with everyone In Thailand face minus 125 Action for the Bucks, FYI.

[Cousin Sal]

Can't do it. No south. No south talk till week 12.

[Bill Simmons]

New Orleans. Oh no, not New Orleans. Atlanta is next. So they're playing a second place schedule plus the NFC west plus the AFC east and they went eight, nine last year. Full year of Pennocks. I put eight and a half for these guys.

[Cousin Sal]

Little weird. Weird off season already. I just went eight.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, I don't know why you keep doing the round numbers, but I'm not going to question your process since you're beating me by six teams. Seven and a half our answer. Wow, you won that one too.

[Cousin Sal]

I mean that's just. So much is up in the air with his cousins and I was feeling.

[Bill Simmons]

So good after my 27 and 5 and now I'm in shambles.

[Cousin Sal]

No, you're good.

[Bill Simmons]

Such a good year last year that lose the Super Bowl, I get killed. KC and now. Now my whole that thing's falling apart. Maybe the under should be me. I think I've dropped by five wins.

[Cousin Sal]

This doesn't matter.

[Bill Simmons]

You.

[Cousin Sal]

You pick the winners. 27. I'm just picking the number. I don't know what the hell to do. I don't know what to do with the number.

[Bill Simmons]

I care about dumb shit like this. So it matters.

[Cousin Sal]

All right.

[Bill Simmons]

New Orleans. God, are they going to be terrible. 5 and 12, NFC West, AFC east and the third place schedule. And they're in cap hell. They brought back car with this weird. Well, we're screwed anyway. How about we'll guarantee your money. They have the ninth pick in the draft.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. Brand new coach. Juwan Johnson. Same old names.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, new coach. But they had like the last pick of the coaches. It was like they went to go get a dog from the kennel and every other choice was gone. And they're like we have this one left. Any interest? I went. I went five and a half and it might be a win too high.

[Cousin Sal]

I went round number because I couldn't think about it too much. Six for me.

[Bill Simmons]

You hit it again. Really? You doing this round number thing is bullshit. There's been no round numbers the whole time.

[Cousin Sal]

Fandel has a.

[Bill Simmons]

You're just like you're. I. I'm just trying to do this correctly. Can't believe it.

[Cousin Sal]

Should try harder.

[Bill Simmons]

This is like the most you've ever cheated.

[Cousin Sal]

They're around numbers.

[Bill Simmons]

I look five and a half or six and a half. So I was like, I'll just take six. And it's like Price is Right. You're just.

[Cousin Sal]

I sent you all the numbers from last year. You could have noticed that there weren't halves on several of them.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, it's six and a half this time. We haven't had a round number yet.

[Cousin Sal]

Wait, is it six and a half or six?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it's six and a half. You won because you picked six. Cause you cheated.

[Cousin Sal]

Okay. Oh, I see.

[Bill Simmons]

And then last One is Carolina 5 and 12 last year. Somehow I still can't believe I didn't win my. When I was in Boston that time and I bet the adjusted under four and a half wins for them and somehow Bryce Young came in and just smoked it. They ended up with five wins. I lost. I still. And the other one was the adjusted under on the Pats three and a half and. And Joe Milton came in at the end. Joe Milton?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, he's going to be a cowboy.

[Bill Simmons]

Joe Milton the next day. Wars quarterback. Anyway, he came in, by the way. That's nuts.

[Cousin Sal]

We don't think about that enough. That Andy Dalton was, you know, totally content to bring them to another three and four year. Then in that car accident. You should see if you're covered. Your auto insurance covers that bet. Like if you do, you have to pay the deductible.

[Bill Simmons]

I won't try to find out at the casino. You went to. I went five and a half for the Panthers.

[Cousin Sal]

I did too.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, the answer is six and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

No.

[Bill Simmons]

The hell. What are we doing?

[Cousin Sal]

Come on.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't agree with that at all.

[Cousin Sal]

Why are they better than 5 ones last year?

[Bill Simmons]

Holy moly.

[Cousin Sal]

Where do they pick up this extra two games?

[Bill Simmons]

Divisions? Tampa plus one 35. Atlanta plus 230. New Orleans plus 480 and Carolina action started out in the four slot, but now they're plus four. Ten people are banging the Panthers. What am I missing?

[Cousin Sal]

We may have to do that. But no south talk. Hey, what was your bet last year for the South? They'd have fewer than how many wins we.

[Bill Simmons]

One of our locks that we hit was that they would have less than 30 wins, which they did. And then we had an NFC east first South bet. And I think just the top two teams in the NFC east almost beat the entire NFC South. Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

So it's 29 this year. If you add the seven and a half. Eight and a half. Six and a half. Six and a Half. It's 13 and 16, 29. Hit it again.

[Bill Simmons]

I gotta be honest, we've done 28 teams. I think my single favorite is New Orleans. Under six and a half so far. Why are they going to be good? What is good about them? What's the case?

[Cousin Sal]

No, they're old, they're messy. They came out great start last year. They were 2 and oh. Scored like 100 points and then they were the Saints.

[Bill Simmons]

Like if we were to say who's going to have the worst record in the week next year, they would at least be one of the teams we batted around. Yeah, I think that's smart. NFC West. They're playing the NFC south and the AFC south, which I thought the NFC West. Yeah, that's the best draw. I thought the NFC west was probably going to suck this year, but that made me rethink it. The Rams are in the one spot with the schedule. They were 10 and 7 last year and first place schedule on the one hand. But then playing the south kind of messed with my head a little bit. I went ten and a half for them.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh, wow. I went nine. So let's see. I know you don't like the round numbers. Nine and a half, that's me.

[Bill Simmons]

Minus 145. Listen, I think this is going to be ultimately good for me because I think my instincts will be. You don't like them this year instincts. I do. I like them because of their schedule and because I don't think their division's going to be good.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Do you like Arizona, San Francisco or Seattle this year?

[Cousin Sal]

No. After the Super Bowl, I picked my way too early. Team odds wise, value wise, The Rams were 20 to 1. I was like, wow, that's pretty good. They were a couple plays away from beating the champion Eagles and then they did a smart thing, signed Stafford. Awesome. I think Devonte Adams has juice left.

[Bill Simmons]

Flip cup and Adams.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, yeah, it's good. They're in good shape. I think nine and a half is a nice number too.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I mean one of the great things about this process is especially after the draft and when we get to the summer, I'm sure we'll flip flop on a bunch of these instincts. But I just think the Rams best coach, they've had success. Stafford's kind of near the end. Like this seems like a pretty good division bet type of thing for me. Seattle, they were ten and seven last year. Same south versus south, second place schedule. And I went eight and a half for them.

[Cousin Sal]

I said seven and a Half.

[Bill Simmons]

I hit this one. Eight and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

Really?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

I mean really. You won one?

[Bill Simmons]

I did. Really? I won one. I'm remembering all of this for guest alliance this year.

[Cousin Sal]

I don't like these moves. These could go very badly with Sam Darnold and Cooper Cup. I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

I didn't like the Cooper cup signing at all. There was so many bad stats about him getting open over the last five years or in 2020 he was open 90% of the time and it was down like 14. The thing with Darnold though, he was 14 and three last year.

[Cousin Sal]

I know.

[Bill Simmons]

So now he's an eight win quarterback. That's the only thing that makes me nervous. But I want to see if they fix our offensive line completely through the draft. We'll see. Arizona is neighbors too.

[Cousin Sal]

Yep. No Geno, no Metcalf. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Arizona was 89 last year. And if Seattle's 8 1/2 with this south south thing, I think they. I think Arizona has to be eight and a half. So that's what I picked.

[Cousin Sal]

Maybe you'll beat me here. I said seven seven.

[Bill Simmons]

Another round number. Bullshit.

[Cousin Sal]

It's higher.

[Bill Simmons]

Eight and a half plus 105. Well, at least I'm ending in a way with my fans. Can at least have some.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, I might have let you win these last couple.

[Bill Simmons]

You took out your starters. You're like Buffalo in week 17, letting Joe Milton light you up +105. And then last but not least, San Francisco, who lost so many people. It's like a whole paragraph of all the people they lost.

[Cousin Sal]

This is so tough.

[Bill Simmons]

And yet they were 6 and 11 last year. That was the rebuilding year. But now they're in a rebuilding year and they're going to have to pay per. But they are playing the south and the South. I said six and a half. Would you have.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh wow. At eight and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay. Wow. This is the biggest disparity we've had.

[Cousin Sal]

It's got to be my way, right?

[Bill Simmons]

How is this right? Ten and a half.

[Cousin Sal]

That's too high. That's way, way high.

[Bill Simmons]

What in the hell? What am I missing?

[Cousin Sal]

You know, you read enough about them. It's like yeah, these were good moves. These were good cuts. Debo, Samuel, all these cut everything they did. Greenlaw. I don't know. I don't. They can't be.

[Bill Simmons]

I thought this was like a blow it up or building year for them.

[Cousin Sal]

Wait, so they're favored to win the.

[Bill Simmons]

Division, not the Rams right now. I'm stunned by that. Yeah. San Francisco plus 155. Rams plus 180. Seahawks plus 490. Cardinals plus 500. So I have to bet this now. If I was four wins off, even though we don't know what's happening in the draft, that has to be an automatic bet for me.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, that's atrocious. That's not good.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm stunned.

[Cousin Sal]

That's not good. We got to go under there.

[Bill Simmons]

Also, like, how do we know McCaffrey's even going to be remotely where he was?

[Cousin Sal]

Exactly. That's the way to go. Yeah. I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, that was really fun.

[Cousin Sal]

That was a good time. And they have Mac Jones, though. Did you mention that they did sign him for two years?

[Bill Simmons]

I forgot to mention Mac Jones. The MVP is Lamar plus 4. 50. Allen plus 5. 50. Burrow plus 600.

[Cousin Sal]

So the Niners are probably, like, Jaden Daniels, seventh best to win the Super Bowl.

[Bill Simmons]

I hope that's not true for the conference. They have the third best odds, nine to one. What am I missing? What's happening? I think it's way more like where they have a year from hell again, and Shanahan is, like, out of there.

[Cousin Sal]

I missed the whole off season. I really do.

[Bill Simmons]

I. I was there for the whole off season. I didn't see anything that made me think that they were going to be awesome. I thought they lost a shitload of people. I mean, do we feel like they hit their drafts the last couple years? Like, you know, they're trying to trade IUK as we speak, and I don't even think they can do that. Nobody wants to play.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, they were. They were riding high off the Purdy, not having to pay him. Now it's. I got to look into that. We're missing something.

[Bill Simmons]

Let's do a quick parent corner before we go.

[Cousin Sal]

All right? My son Archie's home on spring break. They do quarters. So he gets home and I say, like, how are your grades? And he like, kind of like half ass as a response and everything, and immediately shifts gears and tells me he's on season four of the Sopranos. And I was like, oh, that's great. That's better. You could have told me you're. You're. You're Mafia cum laude right now. I mean, that's all I care about. That's what college should be all about, right? Spend tens of thousands dollars a semester to catch up on classic TV shows in your dorm.

[Bill Simmons]

It's like reading a great novel.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, it really is. So I was like, all right, so you're in season four you got a season and a half. I was like, I want to watch the finale with you. And he's like, oh, I don't know. Once I get going, I really, I don't know, am I really going to be able to stop short and not watch the finale for like a month? I'm like, no, I want to watch with you. And it's like. He's like, all right, I'll try. But it made me think like if you had to watch a finale with your kids who are viewing for the first time, which ones would you put up there?

[Bill Simmons]

Sopranos.

[Cousin Sal]

Only Sopranos. Anything else bringing bad or not as much? No, only Sopranos.

[Bill Simmons]

Just for the reaction, Right. There was this quip going around of people watching Tommy gets shot in Goodfellas. See that? Different reactions, right?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And I would think that would be the TV version of, of that. Watching people react like, wait, what did. Wait, what? You hated that. That was the maddest I've ever seen you non sports related.

[Cousin Sal]

I'm still mad that you're not mad about it. I really do.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Now I think it's great, but I know it's gonna happen. I know it's happening now.

[Cousin Sal]

You liked it right away. You did. But it's like I did not like it right away. Nonsensical. Well, I guess no one hated as much as I did, but I had a terrible reaction to it. I didn't want to be friends with anyone who liked it. I like that is such a cheap way to go out. But the answer is he left it open ended because he's a movie maker. He wanted to maybe make a movie. That's the only answer. So he didn't die?

[Bill Simmons]

No. He set it up that this is what death is like. You don't know when it's coming and everything goes black.

[Cousin Sal]

Bullshit.

[Bill Simmons]

So my son, five days ago for spring break, went to Portugal and Spain because he's in this. He plays the upright bass and he's in this jazz band. So a bunch of the jazz people went to play in all these places. So my wife drives them in the middle of the night to the airport because they have a 6 o'clock flight and then he's flying for two days straight. I wanted to read you all of our interactions with him since he's been gone. He's been gone since Friday night. And WhatsApp because they don't have messages, anything. First of all, she only hears from him once on WhatsApp. Then puts me on a text with them. Miss you guys too. That was one. We are in Rondo and are about to perform in four minutes. Second form of communication with him. Send us one, two pictures of. You can see of a tree and a mountain.

[Cousin Sal]

Nice.

[Bill Simmons]

My wife asked, how was the performance? No answer. Sends a picture of the dog. Misses you nothing. Performances have been great. It's super nice out here. That was the third communication. Miss home, though. T h o great picture. Need a photo of your face. My wife says nothing. Then silence again. Hey, guys. Super long day. We left at nine and just got back. My wife responds, that's your report. Anything else happening? Is it any fun? Sends us back this picture.

[Cousin Sal]

What is it? I couldn't see.

[Bill Simmons]

It's just a picture of him and his friend with the mountain behind them. And he says, it is fun. It's just a lot.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And that's it. Those have been all of our interactions with him. Has he tried to call us? What? Only one picture of his face. And I have no idea if he's even alive in Spain right now. I was trying to. My wife and I were talking about. I was trying to remember, was I this much of a dick when I was 17? And I think the answer is probably yes. Right?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

We didn't want to deal with our parents in any way, shape or form when we were 17.

[Cousin Sal]

Right. We didn't have WhatsApp and anything else like that too. So it wasn't as easy. So maybe that's a little.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

But maybe we find it hard to.

[Bill Simmons]

Believe there wasn't one moment where he's like, you know what? I'm going to send my parents an update. Just a long paragraph. Here's the best thing I ate. Just check in. Say hi to Grandma for me. Whatever. No, nothing.

[Cousin Sal]

I think the big news is, who the hell knew that Ben Simmons played the upright bass after all these years on an international level, this is great.

[Bill Simmons]

I was an international bass player.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

How about that? He went to Portugal and Spain. Two countries I haven't been to yet.

[Cousin Sal]

I don't know who could figure that out. Soccer. I have a bunch of Portuguese.

[Bill Simmons]

I didn't mean to mention Portugal. Spain in a soccer contest.

[Cousin Sal]

You just reminded me. Yeah, there you go.

[Bill Simmons]

Anyway, that's Parent corner. The other thing is, we're doing this live Rewatchables tonight in Boston, and my daughter goes to college here, so I left her a ticket and I'm like, you're gonna come tomorrow night? She's like, I. I don't know. It's. You know, it's a big night. Meaning like, it's a big night where they go out. So she's 50. 50. Oh, I just. I might need to have more kids is what. That's where I really landed. You know, when those older guys, when they just, like, all of a sudden they have the second family, are like, huh, that's weird. Maybe I just need to start again.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. Nah, dude. No, they'll come around. I think you need to have hold the rewatchables at the place where she's going out. That's what you have to figure out, right?

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe go to the bar.

[Cousin Sal]

Maybe that's she shows up by accident.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, 50. 50. Might go, might not. Depends on what's going on.

[Cousin Sal]

You son of a bitch. You guys are doing good fellas tonight.

[Bill Simmons]

No, we're doing goodwill hunting tonight.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh, goodwill hunting. Good.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, good fellas is playing at the Low Coolidge Corner Film festival.

[Cousin Sal]

Man, that's gonna be so much fun. So much.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, so congrats on absolutely kicking my ass. If that was a baseball game, that would have been 17 to 3. What's your favorite MLB future mercy rule?

[Cousin Sal]

I went soto over 33 and a half home runs. And what was my other one I had. I have Texas Rangers to make the playoffs.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, I like it.

[Cousin Sal]

That's what I like. Yeah, I think they're good. And I had Mad Dog Russo on cousin Sal's winning weekend. You could see it Friday on FanDuel TV. And by the way, he. I went through. I'll send you the clip. I was like, you know, we. Simmons and I do this podcast for the last 15 years. We've closed it with good job by you. We stole it from you. I said, can you give me a good. A good job by you? And he's like, well, first of all, you tell Bill I watched three episodes of the Celtics documentary, and it is dynamite. I mean, you got him and his father, and they're talking and Koozie and Russell, and then he went through all that. I'm like, all right, I'll tell him. And then he gave me a good job by you. Like, I thought he was going into convulsions. Like, it was great. I'll send it to you.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, that sounds amazing. All right. Check that out. That's on a. That's on. That's on. Against all odds, right?

[Cousin Sal]

That's all odds.

[Bill Simmons]

But you're also on the ringer gambling shit, too. That's right. Yeah. All right. So there you go. Big are you. How you doing in March Madness, by the way? You winning?

[Cousin Sal]

I'm doing all right. I mean, you can't. It's hard to lose when there's all chalk. I mean, it's. Are you doing, like, hate it?

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, are you doing three favorite parlays?

[Cousin Sal]

I get irrationally angry at how much you. You're irrational.

[Bill Simmons]

I've been following. I'm just doing a bit. I like to.

[Cousin Sal]

I know you are. I know.

[Bill Simmons]

I was on the thread we have with J.J. raheem and House. Just. Oh, my bracket. Oh, my God.

[Cousin Sal]

It's busted. Oh, it's dumb, but it's still guys coming to Vegas, by the way.

[Bill Simmons]

Now, that part's great.

[Cousin Sal]

It's not like 20 years ago. They charge like 500 bucks to get into Caesars. Anyway, you want to see anywhere? It's 400. Like, ask Kyle. It's 400 or more. It's.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, my God. Anyway, all right.

[Cousin Sal]

It's a lot of fun.

[Bill Simmons]

Good job, bu. Great to see you. Thanks to Kyle and serenity and Gehau, as always. Don't forget, you can watch us on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel or as a video podcast on Spotify. So good job by you.

[Cousin Sal]

Good job by you, buddy. I don't have.

[Bill Simmons]

Must be 21 plus in president select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + in President D.C. gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny in New York.