The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: Guess the Lines Week 1, Micah Parsons Trade Damage, and an NFL Futures Draft With Cousin Sal
Date: August 31, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Cousin Sal

Episode Overview

The NFL season is back, and Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal kick off their 19th (yes, 19th!) season of "Guess the Lines" with a packed episode. This week’s show zeroes in on three major topics:

• The fallout from the blockbuster Micah Parsons trade—why Dallas did it, how the timing was "Jerry Jones special," and how it torpedoes the Cowboys' 2025 outlook;
• A robust, spirited Guess the Lines segment for NFL Week 1, as the duo navigates a slate packed with divisional intrigue and plenty of betting angles;
• The second annual Futures Draft, where Bill and Sal alternate picking creative, often longshot NFL futures bets with some classic Fogo-de-Chão "until someone taps out" energy.

The show’s tone is Bill-and-Sal at maximum: part rant, part therapy, casual but full of inside references and sharp analysis, with the kind of comedic pessimism Cowboys fans know all too well.

Main Topics and Key Discussion Points

1. Kickoff & NFL Return Excitement

[05:00]

• Bill and Sal celebrate their 19th year guessing NFL lines.
• Bill recalls: "Back in the Jimmy Kimmel Live days… I remember writing at one point, you know, this would be a great talk show segment someday. Not realizing podcasts were coming."
  [04:25]

2. The Micah Parsons Trade Fallout

[05:31] – [18:53]

• Jerry Jones trades Cowboys star Micah Parsons to the Packers for two late first-round picks and DT Kenny Clark.

• Sal is crushed:
  "I do appreciate you holding off on the snark and texting me, because that oftentimes is the worst part of this." [05:58]

• The timing and value of the trade is savaged:

  • Sal: "They could have gotten more in March, more in June, more in October. He either waited too long or didn’t wait long enough." [06:42]

• They debate whether Dallas should’ve played “chicken” with Parsons and waited.

• Bill on parallels to other “we have to do THIS NOW” trades:

  • "This really reminded me of the Mookie Betts trade. … They made a fucking terrible trade. They got Verdugo and Wong and Jeter Downs. They got 11 cents on the dollar." [11:10]

• No argument exists in football media for why the Cowboys’ return makes sense.

  • Bill: "There was nobody zagging. When everybody who follows football is like, that’s the dumbest trade I’ve ever seen—it’s probably not a good trade." [12:15]

• Dallas spent newfound cap on extending corner Bland (“probably not even a top-20 cornerback,” Bill moans) [07:49]

• How the trade upends Dallas’ extensions for Dak and CeeDee Lamb; undermines any near-term plan.

• Trading a blue-chip defender in his prime—teams almost never do this, and when they do it foreshadows a lost half-decade.

• Fun debate: It’s NOT the Luka Doncic trade (because QB is truly irreplaceable, Parsons is just elite at a non-QB spot). [19:14]

  “Listen, we’re both old enough to know with these trades—there's going to be no scenario where this is a good trade.”
  —Bill [16:42]

Memorable Moments

• Bill: “This was not a curveball. This was a slider in the dirt. And you can’t recover from losing a guy this good.” [13:45]
• Sal: “The only case would be a possible Ewing Theory situation, which I don’t think you’re very excited about.” [05:58]
• Sal’s deadpan: “I made a list of 12 reasons why this trade sucked, and I’m not going to bore people with them...” [06:36]

Timestamps

• [05:31] Sal’s initial sadness and analogy-laced despair
• [06:42] Why the timing was so bad
• [11:10] Mookie Betts trade comparison
• [12:15] No one defending Dallas
• [16:42] “No scenario where this is a good trade”

3. NFL Week 1 “Guess the Lines”

[25:42] – [61:00]

• They break down NFL Week 1’s juiciest games, bouncing analysis and betting angles for each matchup.
• Both pick their top TV “quad-box” games for Sunday viewing, arguing the lineups and which matchups matter most for fantasy, narratives, and betting.

Highlights:

• Bill on Thursday Night Eagles-Cowboys, post-Parsons: “I’d rather slip my throat with a razor blade than do that... you know that’s gonna be three hours of it.” [15:51]
• Which games make the “quad-screen”? Arguments about Giants–Washington, Carolina–Jacksonville, and more.
• Bets and trends: Week 1 division home underdogs since 2010: 23–7 against the spread. [30:14]
• Lines that seem "off": Chiefs–Chargers in Brazil, Packers–Lions, 49ers–Seahawks
• Talking through the betting psyche—who scares them, who’s a “must fade,” and the real “must win” week one games (with tongue-in-cheek fake debate).
• Bill’s “get up guy” routine—parody of sports talking head clichés. [37:33]
• The new “two and a half” point spread—“the new one and a half.” [42:27]

Notable Quotes

• “This is the perfect spot. My question for this is, if the Cardinals are really good, and we don’t know that yet—but in week eight, we will know… We always look back at these Week 1 lines like, wow, the Cardinals were only -5.5, that would be like -13 now.”
  —Bill [57:01]
• On Steelers–Jets: “If you bet on this game, you’re just desperate to bet on shit. Don’t tease this game, don’t parlay it. Just play it straight up if you’re going to do it.” [46:29]

Timestamps

• [25:42] Opening the lines
• [29:01] Why the Philly–Dallas line didn’t move more after Parsons
• [30:14] Divisional underdog trend
• [38:14] The Watchables, Bills–Ravens, “quad box” musts

4. Parent Corner

[64:47] – [72:50]

• Classic “Parent Corner” is back, with the duo now (hilariously) shifting the scope to older parents and “custody” of longtime family friends.
• Sal regales with stories about “Brad,” the adopted friend who, over Labor Day, devours ribs, shames the kids out of ever posting on YouTube, and dispenses true-crime advice:
  • “If you ever choose to commit murder, do not leave your trophies in the trunk of your car, because that’s the first place the cops are going to check.” [67:06]
• Bill brainstorms an app called “Shazamma”:
  “There should be a Shazam for moms... she starts describing what the show is, and then I can just put it in the app and it spits out the answer.” [71:22]

5. NFL Futures Draft

[77:24] – [108:57]

• The second annual Ringer NFL Futures Draft: Bill and Sal alternate “snake style” picking futures bets, from mainstream to wild longshots, with the only rule being “Fogo de Chão style: we go until someone taps out.”
• Categories include MVP, playoff seed order, specific stat milestones, division finishes, and bizarre-but-fun prop options (Coach/Assistant of the Year, “TD Triple Crown,” etc.)

Notable Bets & Reasoning:

• Bill: “Philly, KC, and Baltimore all to make the playoffs, minus 110. We’ve done this for years—who loses that?” [78:04]
• Sal: Jordan Love for MVP, Offensive Player of the Year Chase, Aidan Hutchinson sacks, Cam Scadaboo “TD Triple Crown.”
• Both: Multiple “against the grain” bets—fading the Dolphins, Saints, and Browns, bullish on Packers, Broncos, Bucs.

Great Quotes

• “I’m surprised you didn’t take it… New Orleans or Cleveland under 3.5 wins. Minus 130. Just one of them has to suck, basically, and I think both of them might suck.”
  —Bill [80:41]

Fun Moment

• “Fogo to Chão rules—which means we just keep doing props back and forth until somebody quits, someone throws up…”
  —Bill [81:59]

6. Closing / Goodbyes

[108:57+]

• Plugs for The Ringer Gambling Show, The Rewatchables, Survivor pools, and a heartfelt (and comedic) tribute to their old writer friend Tony.

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• "I made a list of 12 reasons this trade sucked, and I'm not going to bore people with them..."
  –Sal [06:36]
• "This was not a curveball. This was a slider in the dirt. And you can't recover from losing a guy this good."
  –Bill [13:45]
• "There was nobody zagging. When everybody who follows football... is like, that's the dumbest trade I've ever seen—it's probably not a good trade."
  –Bill [12:15]
• "If you ever choose to commit murder, do not leave your trophies in the trunk of your car, because that's the first place the cops are going to check."
  –Brad (via Sal) [67:06]
• "There should be a Shazam for moms ... she starts describing what the show is, and then I can just put it in the app and it spits out the answer."
  –Bill [71:22]
• "Fogo de Chão rules—which means we just keep doing props back and forth until somebody quits, someone throws up..."
  –Bill [81:59]

Important Timestamps for Reference

• [05:31–18:53] Micah Parsons trade analysis, rants, and pain
• [25:42] Start of “Guess the Lines” for Week 1
• [64:47] Parent Corner: Sal's "custody" of Brad, Bill's "Shazamma"
• [77:24] Futures Draft begins—parlays, props, and longshots
• [108:57+] Wrap up, plugs, and heartfelt/funny tributes

Summary for First-Timers / Key Takeaways

• The Micah Parsons trade is a franchise-altering, fan-devastating move for Dallas—made at the worst possible time, for underwhelming return. Bill and Sal deliver an articulate, emotional postmortem, with sarcasm, frustration, and inside references about Jerry Jones’ habits.
• “Guess the Lines” for Week 1 brings in both sharp betting trends and the duo’s signature blend of football insight and comedy, flagging sneaky lines and unraveling why some numbers are where they are.
• The Futures Draft—a fast, creative prop battle—is, as always, a highlight for betting fans.
• As football podcasters since before podcasts existed, Bill and Sal’s chemistry and NFL nerdery are at their best, with tangents, Parent Corner, and plenty of side-bets for listeners to track.
• Throughout: Relatable misery for Cowboys fans, a treasure trove of betting opinions, running gags (“must win” parodies, Fogo de Chão rules, “get up guy” routines), and absurd prop bets to monitor for months.

If you missed it:

• You’ll understand why Cowboys fans are in mourning about Parsons, what games to care about Week 1, and what loopy futures bets Bill and Sal will be tracking all season long.
• “No scenario where this is a good trade”—but plenty of scenarios for a great NFL season.

For betting lines, football therapy, and classic Simmons/Salian riffing, this is as comprehensive and entertaining an NFL kickoff pod as you could ask for.