The Bill Simmons Podcast –

"Last Call for Giannis Trades, Plus an NFL Round 3 Deep Dive With Chris Ryan, Joe House, and Peter Schrager"

Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Chris Ryan, Joe House, Peter Schrager

Overview

This episode dives deep into the hottest NBA trade topic: Will the Milwaukee Bucks finally deal Giannis Antetokounmpo ahead of the looming trade deadline? Bill Simmons, Chris Ryan, and Joe House break down possible destinations, trade packages, and philosophical trade-value dynamics surrounding the future Hall of Famer. The second half shifts focus to the NFL’s upcoming Conference Championship weekend, with Peter Schrager joining for a detailed preview of coaching carousel intrigue and both playoff matchups, splicing in a signature blend of sports nostalgia and sharply opinionated football talk.

I. The Giannis "Final" Trade Machine: Breaking Down Fake Deals

Segment Start: [03:50]

Key Discussion Points

The Bucks’ Predicament ([04:17])

• Simmons: “It feels like we hit rock bottom last night with the Bucks.”

• Chris Ryan agrees the situation is “untenable” for both the franchise and Giannis—too many Band-Aid moves, and now “out of moves” ([04:49]).

• Joe House: Bucks fans want to keep Giannis, but “deep down, they’re going to understand” if he asks out because he delivered a title in 2021 ([05:31]).

Media Pressure & NBA Landscape ([08:13])

• Chris Ryan: “The amount of pressure and scrutiny these guys are under now… also the NBA’s in a weird state where ‘faces of the league’ are mired on mediocre teams.”

Asset Reality & Historical Lessons ([10:10])

• Simmons: Teams often mortgage the future for a short window. “These trades now where you get 120 to 130 cents on the dollar… history is really good for the team getting all the assets.”

• House: Even in "failed" returns (e.g., Pelicans after the AD trade), draft flexibility pays off.

The Picks Landscape ([12:10])

• Simmons lays out the complicated pick obligations between Milwaukee, New Orleans, and Atlanta—tanking makes sense if the Bucks move Giannis, but some trades just tread water ([13:13]).

II. The Giannis Fake Trade Machine (Trade-by-Trade Analysis)

Segment Start: [16:25]

1. Detroit Pistons’ All-In Play ([17:16])

• Proposal: Tobias Harris (exp.), Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, picks/swaps for Giannis.
• Simmons: “I would not do this if I was them but… it’s a discussion.”
• House: “There’s nothing in this that’s interesting to me if I’m Milwaukee.”
• Chris Ryan: “This is it. This is the moment. You’re never going to get a guy like Giannis in Detroit otherwise.”

2. Knicks Lateral Move ([20:00])

• Giannis for Anunoby/Towns + Portis/Kuzma.
• Consensus: “No idea why the Bucks would do that.”

3. Is Giannis Overrated as an ‘All-Time Guy?’ ([20:36])

• Simmons wonders aloud: "Are teams really failing over themselves to get Giannis? ... is it a referendum on his game, age, or just CBA flexibility?"

• House: “I vehemently disagree. There’s never been more value placed on flexibility and cap space—there are all these barriers to trades now.”

• Chris Ryan: “There’s a ‘popcorn, butts-in-seats, jersey sales’ element to Giannis, too—which most owners would want.”

4. Miami Three-Team Swap ([25:09])

• Giannis/Portis to Miami, Bam to Atlanta, bulk of picks/salary filler to Milwaukee.
• Ryan and House approve: “This is the best deal you sent us.” “I quite like this trade.”
• Simmons: “If Miami could…turn Bam and picks into Giannis and Portis…that would make me a little nervous (as a Celtics fan).”

5. The Absurd: Luka (Lakers) For Giannis ([27:00])

• Simmons floats a bomb: “Straight one with the Lakers…Luka and [salary filler] for Giannis.”
• Ryan & House: This is the least realistic proposal by far — “Bill, is Rich Paul in the room with you?”

6. Sixers Swap: Giannis for Paul George + Edgecombe ([30:14])

• Simmons: “Giannis and Gary Harris for Paul George, VJ Edgecombe…?”
• Immediate sharp NO: Chris Ryan: “I want to live in a world where VJ and Maxi are the backcourt.”
• House: “This just doesn’t make sense for Philly.”
• Ryan: “There’s a five to ten year future with this team. I want to cheer for a fun young backcourt.”

7. Jayson Tatum for Giannis – Mailbag Special ([34:28])

• Simmons: “Would you even have a meeting about it?”
• Ryan: “Would Danny Ainge do it?”
• Simmons: “Danny would have done it already…but I think Karma-wise, no, Tatum is beloved in Boston.”

8. Golden State ‘Go for Broke’ – All Picks, Kaminga, Pudz for Giannis/Kuzma ([35:34])

• All agree: Maybe interesting if Warriors had acted earlier; now the timing’s off.
• “Golden State would be nuts to mortgage their future for Curry, Giannis, and nothing else.” ([37:31])

9. Houston Rockets: Sengun or Amen Thompson? ([37:47])

• Giannis for Sengun ($20M), picks; or swap Amen T.
• Ryan: “If I was Milwaukee, I’d be most excited about this.”
• Simmons: “I wouldn’t do this if I was Houston. Sengun on $20M is too much value.”
• House: “I might be higher than is rational on Sengun.”

10. San Antonio: The “Give Up Dylan Harper” Test ([40:48])

• Giannis, Kuzma, filler to SAS.
• Spurs must give up Vassell, expiring vets, and Dylan Harper.
• “It’s a really good realistic basketball trade.”
• Ultimately: “If I’m San Antonio, I wouldn’t do it. If I trade for Giannis, I have to feel like I’m winning the title.”

11. Atlanta: The Cleanest Fit? ([43:48])

• Giannis for McCollum exp., Porzingis exp., picks, Realize Jalen Johnson/Dyson Daniels still there.
• Simmons: “Biggest star Atlanta’s had since Bob Pettit.”
• Problem: Would Giannis want to go from a middling team to another?
• House: “Doesn’t he want to take a team over the hump? …Hawks have three more wins than the team he’s on now.”

Bottom Line – Which Makes Sense? ([46:41])

• Simmons: “Miami is the one that’s kind of fun. You slot Giannis in Bam’s spot and…maybe have a chance with Spoelstra and shooters.”

Notable Exchange—Legacy Question ([46:48])

• Ryan: “Do you get the impression…once Giannis leaves, there aren’t a lot of guys at the Bucks sticking around for a rebuild? (i.e., organizational motivation to maximize asset haul is lower)”

III. NFL Conference Championships + Coaching Carousel

Segment Start: [54:46]

Sweet Spot Nostalgia: Conference Title Games ([55:04])

• What’s your oldest memory? Guests share stories—80s-90s NFC/AFC classics.
• Simmons: “It’s like football amnesia. There are so many huge games, and I barely remember half of them…”

Bills Coaching Search & QB Empowerment Era ([63:08])

• Peter Schrager outlines the ongoing search; Josh Allen will have some voice, but “30-year-old Davis Webb as head coach?”
• House: “Fuck no…the quarterback cannot pick the head coach!”
• Schrager: “It’s such a player empowerment era, but…he’d be the youngest head coach, it’s nuts.”

Andy Reid and the Chiefs: End of the Road? ([70:15])

• Simmons: “You could argue maybe last year should’ve been Andy’s last year.”
• Schrager: “They brought back Bieniemy as offensive coordinator to try to spark something, but Andy will leave on his own terms.”

Would Belichick Make Sense in Buffalo? ([71:35])

• No real “smoke” beyond talk radio.
• House & Simmons agree: “You’d have to keep him far away from personnel decisions.”

The “McFay Unicorn” and OC Market ([73:45])

• 30-year-old OC hires rarely work—beyond Sean McVay, “that is such a swing.”

Vegas Raiders & Draft QB Watch ([77:33])

• Schrager: “I was on the sideline…I think Brady will really be the one who decides if Mendoza is their guy.”
• Vegas may look at defense-oriented coaches, but pairing with the rookie QB is key.

IV. NFL Conference Championship Games Deep Dive

Seahawks (-2.5) vs Rams

Segment Start: [85:08]

• Intense line discussion & positional matchups.
• Schrager: “When you need it most on a third down, McVay calls timeout, talks to Stafford…they see the hot route” ([90:58])
• House: “First team in the Super Bowl era to not cover the spread in the first two playoff games.”
• Revenge angles: Seahawks’ Cooper Kupp, Ernest Jones—both ex-Rams.
• Simmons: “Three road playoff games in a row is meaningful; it’s just really hard to keep your legs.”

Broncos (-4.5) vs Patriots

Segment Start: [101:03]

• House: “A key math question—should losing Bo Nix to Stidham really be worth SIX points on the spread?”
• Deep dive into Playoff QB debut history: “No QB has ever made his first start of the year in Round 3.”
• Schrager on Jared Stidham: “His nickname is ‘Stiddy.’ …tons of charisma, beloved by coaches, but he’s still a backup QB in the AFC title game.”
• Simmons: “Don’t talk yourself into a terrible QB, ever, for any reason.” ([123:29])
• Gambling Manifesto cross-examines every angle—coaching history, inexperience, and “nobody believes in us” narratives.

V. The Picks & Props: Ringer 107 Segment

Segment Start: [125:56]

• Seahawks -2.5 “Rams are banged up, Seahawks at home, the travel schedule matters.”
• Patriots ML + Under 50.5 “Line’s too high, close game expected, question marks on Stidham.”
• Ramondre Stevenson longest rec. over 10.5 yds
• Kupp 30+ receiving yards vs Seahawks
• Super Bowl Trivia: If it goes as expected, it’ll be “two Mikes coaching vs each other”; flip side, “two Seans.”

Notable Quotes

• Simmons, on ‘trading Giannis’ fatigue:
  “I feel like I’ve done this segment five times. But now this is the one. This is the finalized version of fake Giannis trades…” ([00:00])

• Chris Ryan, on NBA player movement:
  “It’s a fascinating inflection point… faces of the league mired on mediocre teams while these juggernaut teams are just going about their business.” ([08:13])

• Simmons, re: patience for asset building:
  “History of those trades is really good for the team getting all the assets. It worked out for Milwaukee (title), but now…” ([10:10])

• Joe House, on Giannis’ legacy:
  “It’s impossible in the CBA world we live in… Cap space, flexibility—that is much more important than how much Giannis is going to help this year or next.” ([21:43])

• Simmons (mock Amazon ad spot for Giannis):
  “Giannis is basically on Amazon right now in a lightning deal.” ([23:35])

• Schrager, on Bills’ coaching pick:
  “If Josh Allen really pushed for his best friend (Davis Webb) to be coach…are we okay with that?”
  House: “F*** no! The quarterback can’t pick the head coach!” ([65:37])

• Simmons, on Patriots run:
  “This has been an amazing run. The line's too high, but I think the Patriots are going to win.” ([119:12])

VI. Memorable Sidebars & Moments

• Popes & the Seahawks Super Bowl "Curse" ([99:29])
  Schrager: “2005, we got a new Pope – Seahawks went to the Super Bowl. 2013, new Pope – Seahawks went again. 2025…?”
  Simmons: “If it happens, this goes into the gambling manifesto.”

• Patriots’ Denver playoff record is discussed. Simmons laments they’ve “never won there” — “bad losses, altitude is not great.” ([114:18])

• Old Super Bowl betting story – “Bloody Sunday” from Klosterman’s book: The line moved all week and every bet cashed. ([101:03])

VII. Timestamps of Key Segments

| Time | Topic | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:50 | Giannis trade situation breakdown begins | | 16:25 | Fake Giannis Trade Machine rapid fire | | 25:09 | Miami three-team (w/ Atlanta) trade proposal analyzed | | 30:14 | Philly proposal (Paul George, Edgecombe for Giannis) | | 34:28 | Jayson Tatum for Giannis? Mailbag question | | 43:48 | Atlanta Hawks as the cleanest "fit" trade | | 54:46 | Conference championship memories/nostalgia w/ Peter Schrager | | 63:08 | Buffalo Bills’ coaching search—QB empowerment/discussion | | 73:45 | Vegas Raiders coaching search and the rookie QB dilemma | | 85:08 | NFC Championship: Seahawks vs. Rams deep dive | | 101:03 | AFC Championship: Broncos vs. Patriots breakdown and QB-debut playoff history | | 125:56 | Ringer 107 picks and prop bets discussion |

VIII. Final Thoughts

Simmons and his crew turn trade speculation and playoff analysis into a mix of sports nerdery, nostalgia therapy, and gambling manifesto cross-examination. The Bucks’ Giannis dilemma highlights how NBA stars—even “untouchable” MVPs—can become asset management problems under the latest CBA, while the NFL roundtable mulls over QB-driven coaching searches, the realities of playoff QB debuts, and historical context for every matchup.

Endnote:
If you’re into the inside jokes, tense trade machine banter, salty opinions on sports business and legendary games of decades past, this is a robust episode with plenty to satisfy NBA and NFL fans alike.

Listen to the full episode for all the nuance, rants, sidebar jokes, and the full list of fake Giannis trades.