← The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
02:29:13
Loading summary
Transcript503 lines
- [00:00]
Bill Simmons
The Bill Simmons podcast, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I am recording this right after Lakers Mavs. Just the very top here. Four things I wanted to hit coming off that game. Number one, the Luka Doncic trade is now kind of seeming stupid for Dallas. Oh, wait, it was stupid immediately when it happened. This is just a disaster. I can't believe Nico Harrison actually went to the game. Like they weren't going to chant thank you, Nico at him for two and a half hours. If I was him, I would have pretended to have Covid. The flu, bronchitis, I don't know what, but I would not have wanted to be in the building. That's just nuts. All right, three actual takeaways. One. This is already the best rivalry in the NBA. I am the most interested in every Lakers Mavericks game from now on. We didn't even have Anthony Davis tonight. We didn't have Gafford. We didn't have Lively. There's going to be a version of this game, at least for this season and next season, I would guess, where you have this big Mavericks team with a bunch of size and then you have this weird Lakers team that's kind of playing small, but they're not small because their front court has 800 pounds of guys. Then Luka trying to get revenge against his old team and just a lot of different storylines that I think are great. We had this in the 2000s. The seeds of it when Shaq went to Miami, but Kobe's Lakers team wasn't good enough. We had the seeds of it when Durant went to Golden State in 2016. And then there was going to be an OKC Golden State rivalry, but Golden State was just way better than okc. This has a chance to be a really fun back and forth every time they play. It's going to be a fun game like the one tonight, and I'm looking forward to it. I would say for the rest of the 2000s, this is our best bet for an awesome NBA rivalry like Boston, Cleveland. Maybe that'll get there. I doubt we're going to have all the storylines and the baggage that this one has. I don't know. Minnesota, okc. Sure. Sga. Anthony Edwards. That'll be great. Can't wait to watch those guys battle. But it's not going to have the baggage in the history of this rivalry. So depending on how long LeBron is able to play at this level, this is the best we're going to do. Could we get this as a 27 matchup in the NBA playoffs? So Lakers right now, 30, 35 and 21, 2 seed is conceivable for them. Dallas right now is the eight seed. There's a bunch of teams tied in between seven and 10. They're getting some guys back soon.
- [02:30]
Dave Bernat
If.
- [02:31]
Bill Simmons
You want to get good ratings. NBA, I would rig a 2, 7 Lakers. Dallas I think would be the way to do it anyway. This is an awesome rivalry. That was my first takeaway tonight watching this where I'm just like, this is must watch tv. Every time these two guys, two teams play. Second one is the Lakers who Rosel and I talk about on Sunday night. I think they're a wild card contender. They're not one of the four contenders to win the title, but they're, they might be fifth and they're definitely the, I don't know what the ceiling is of this team yet. They're 15 and four in their last 19 now. They've been top five net the whole time. Rui at center, which you know they've, they've done from time to time when AD was out. But they're doing it by necessity now because the Mark Williams trade got canceled. He's a little Karl Anthony Towns's chair at times and I mean that in a good way. Like he's got size, he's got, he could stretch the floor and he's just big enough that he can push against a post up player. Not the, you know, not a rim protector. Neither is Towns. But when you watch them and it's their crunch time today and I think their crunch time just going forward. Reaves as the point guard even though he's not a point guard. Rui is the center even though he's not a center. And then LeBron and Luka and Finney Smith as the wings and they're all just really smart basketball players who can kind of fill in the blanks and not totally get burned. The rim protection is not going to be perfect. There's going to be guards like Kyrie tonight that they're just not going to be able to stay in front of. Unless it's a team defensive concept. I think it works. I'm bullish on this Lakers team as a contender. Everyone's like, oh, you hate the Lakers, you hate the Lakers. When the Lakers are good. I'm going to admit it. We were admitting it. We were doing pods all the way up until Covid happened in the 2019, 20 season saying the Lakers Clippers are the two best teams. I think the Lakers are a legit contender and I think they can get away with these goofy lineups because they're really well coached and their best two players are really smart and know where to go and what to do. So that's my second takeaway. Ironically, Luka is not in any of my big three takeaways because we know how talented he is, we know how good he is, and it was interesting. You would have bet like if you're betting on FanDuel, you're doing the same game. They had the parlay, boost, token. The obvious bet would have been, oh, Luca revenge points. And it never works out that way. He just did the classic other version of a Luca game where he filled out every part of the box score, got a triple double, but he did not have the 40 point game. Which I think when you think about revenge, it wasn't what we saw tonight. But he played a really smart offensive game and really controlled it and did a lot of good stuff. But that leads to the third thing. Watching LeBron reinvent himself on the fly. And I think this is his 22nd NBA season at age 40, when we thought we had seen every version of whatever was happening with him, I didn't think he ever had a chance to compete for a title again. And almost immediately, he has figured out how to kind of coexist with Luka, how to let Luka have the ball. Way more than we've ever seen LeBron be comfortable with with a teammate since 2011. Miami playing off the ball and figuring out how to affect the game in all these different ways. And then when he gets the ball, doing LeBron things. This is a hybrid of 2011, Miami, that first year when it was still Wade's team and he was kind of easing his way into it. He was still getting his stats, but there was a lot of time when Wade was cooking. Cause Wade was one of the three best players in the league. And he's deferring to Luke, at least what we've seen so far, while also trying to figure out all these different ways to fit in. Like he'll get like these sneaky offensive rebounds. He only had two assists today. Cause he didn't have the ball that much. But he still ended up with, you know, I think he had 25 and 12, got some big rebounds. And then defensively, the first, what, two months of the season, he was just atrocious defensively and all the advanced metrics backed it up. And he's been way more active. And I'm just really impressed. The defense, the rebounding and the off the ball stuff is about as high level as it gets. We were working on the Ringer 100 stuff and you know, after the second month of the season, I didn't think there was any case for him to be a top 25 player anymore. I don't think there's nine players playing better than him right now. Like, you go Jokic, sga, Giannis, Tatum, those four, Luka from a pedigree has to be still a top 10 player. Mitchell, Brunson, Edwards, and then it's LeBron and Cade are probably the 10 best players in the league right now. There's been some injuries, we've lost some guys, but LeBron has to be in the top 10. And I think he's a second team all NBA guy the way this is going. He's been awesome and you know, at this point in his career when he's done pretty much everything you could do. And we see a lot of the old superstars. Doug Collins always used to talk about how hard it is to coach an old superstar. He seems like he's completely bought into, hey, we might actually have a chance to win. What do I have to do? It doesn't seem like there's a lot of ego stuff which you see with a lot of older players. Just how do I fit in? How do we win? How can I chip in? It's really interesting to watch and I'm taking the Lakers seriously. So those are my big takeaways from Lakers Mavs. We have a lot more on the podcast coming up. Hey, don't leave the podcast now. I still got football and White Lotus for you next. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Wherever you like to watch the game at the arena, the bar, home, wherever. Enjoy every moment of the NBA season within the ice cold Michelob Ultra. And we've done some stuff with them. So they'll send me the Michelob Ultra. I'll put it in the fridge. It's really interesting what happens. People come over, they want a beer, they go, oh, Michelob Ultra. Or I've never tried one of these. I've heard you talked about it. 100% approval rating every single time. Keep it nice and cold. It's delicious. There's only one way to watch your favorite teams drop buckets, and that's with a bucket. Michelob Ultra. Stock up on Michelob Ultra for the NBA season. Michelob Ultra, a superior light beer. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2025 Anheuser Busch Michelob Ultra registered light beer St Louis, Missouri we're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network where I put up a brand new Rewatchables. On Monday night, me and Van Lathan and Joanna Robinson did crash the 2006 Oscar winner. It's the 20th anniversary of that movie. We rarely do this on the Rewatchables, where we just bring a movie on just so we can picnics with it for an hour and a half and make fun of it and do a whole bunch of things. I had a really good time. I thought this was a very entertaining episode. Every once in a while we just got to do this to keep the muscles fresh. Anyway, you can watch that as a video podcast on Spotify. You can go to the Ringer Movies YouTube channel and watch it there as well. You can get all the videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And then, last but not least, Celtic City on HBO Sunday night, March 3rd, HBO Max, it's going to be once a week. It's nine episodes. It's one of the coolest projects I've been involved with and I'm really psyched for everybody to watch it. So mark it down. I know there's a lot of good TV on these days, but mark down Celtic City. It's coming. I'll talk more about it on Thursday's podcast. Coming up for the rest of this podcast, Shield Capati and I are going to talk about the quarterback situation in the NFL right now. A lot of teams that need one, a lot of teams that can't find one. Some guys that might be moving teams, some top 10, possibly top five, possibly top three quarterback prospects that are going to make the draft more interesting. So we're going to cover all of that. And then my friend Dave Barnad is going to come on, who is an EP of White Lotus and has been a producer for a long time. His story is interesting. His story's about White Lotus and just like what it's like when you see somebody as an executive producer of a scripted TV show, what is that job? What do they do? We're going to dive into all of it. I promise you're going to like it. So that is what's happening. First, our friends from Pearl Jet. All right, Shield Capadi from the Ringer is here. A roller coaster ride of a month for him. The Eagles win the super bowl in about as convincing a fashion as we've had in a while. And then on the flip side, the Sixers have spiraled into a fiery pit of hell. Do. Do you care? Does anyone in Philly even care about the Sixers right now?
- [11:34]
Shield Capati
A little bit. But you can't wipe the smiles off everyone's faces. It usually just goes back to the Eagles and the super bowl and then rooting now for the Sixers to just hold on to that, that pick one through six, I think that's what it's, it's returned to here.
- [11:48]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, it's going to be a. If they end up in the sixth spot and it's a top six protected pick and you're just holding your finger, your fingers crossed that nobody leapfrogs them. I think ending up at 7 after how devastating the season would have been is was that that would be an all timer, the Eagles thing. I'm still kicking myself for not picking them. I have so many regrets. I talked to you that first week of before we got into the super bowl week and I'm like, I'm taking the Eagles, I'm taking them. I really think they have a better team. And then by Wednesday the Mahomes Kool Aid had washed over me and the fear of just being wrong and having my home like God and it just, that was it. That was the only reason. I'm never doing that again. If all the evidence is on one team like that, I'm just never doing that again. I'm never buying into this whole amorphous, well, you gotta do it. They win all the time. This is the stupidest thing you can do. And why did we do it?
- [12:44]
Shield Capati
I picked the Eagles.
- [12:45]
Bill Simmons
No, I know you did.
- [12:46]
Shield Capati
I'm saying all the Mahomes pickers, it came down to yes, great quarterback versus great team. And I think we knew the Eagles had the better team numbers two through 53. I don't think, I don't know anybody that picked the Eagles to blow them out in that fashion though the way they did. So no one does that to the Chiefs. I mean really, it was an all time performance. And that's why everybody still, anywhere you go, still has the Eagles gear on and is not ready to turn the page to any of the other teams right now.
- [13:13]
Bill Simmons
So all the Eagles fans have told me the Pat super bowl, because it was the first one of this of two generations basically was a more emotional, better one. But this was in a lot of ways more satisfying, especially the Jalen hurts piece of it which I think as we get away from that game and you know the days pass and it's just weren't really sure what you had with that guy. And then he was really awesome. I was watching some of the inside the NFL type stuff after that game. He was just great in that game. I mean, that's one of the better QB performances. So going forward, you know, for the money you're paying, all right. It's like, all right, we can win the super bowl with this guy. This is good. How. What is the shelf life for the Seagulls team with all the stuff they've done with the cap? Because I know they were maneuvering and getting a little creative, but at some point that runs out, right?
- [13:59]
Shield Capati
Yeah. I think you and I talked about, like, quarterback analysis before and has it gone too far where now we don't care as much if the guy is winning? It's more about, like, the film and the analytics. And Hertz has kind of been a throwback where all season long, I know we had conversations, it's like, all right, it's a little up and down. And then the two biggest games of the year, he comes through and is fantastic in the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl. So I'm with you. I think it changed his sort of his legacy and the way he's viewed, at least locally, but also nationally. And in terms of the window, they're in a good spot. You mentioned it, 2017, it was like, that was magical for everyone because they had never done it before. This feels like it's built to last. They've got young guys in the secondary, they've got young defensive linemen. They're going to bring back 10 of 11 starters, at least on offense. And so, yeah, they're in a very good spot where I would expect this. You never know if you get to another one or win another one, but the window is more open than it was, I think, the last time they won one.
- [14:54]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, you figure it's four or five years for the window. That was certainly. The Pats had three different windows during the Brady era. And, you know, as we've discussed in the past, all of them hinge on if you can nail a couple of drafts in a row, which is the Eagles did that. They're probably the best example of that. The drafts that they had the last couple years, and then looking out with, like, that linebacker who now is going to become one of the top free agents, like a couple really shrewd signings where you pay X amount for somebody and then he turns out to be an A lister. It's really impressive. You don't think there's a. An unexpected trade with them, though, right? Like, there's no, hey, here's the time to trade AJ Brown right now for draft capital so we can get like, are they going to do anything crazy?
- [15:37]
Shield Capati
I don't think they're going to trade a core player. If there's an unexpected trade, if Miles Garrett gets dealt and it's a position of need and you say, hey, we're not going to be drafting high in the next couple of years anyway and this is a premium position, an elite player to add to the best defense in the NFL. That to me would be a Howie Roseman move. I don't know that it's going to happen, but when I look at the list of teams that I would say I could actually see them giving up a haul for Miles Garrett, I would put them on that list of two or three teams.
- [16:06]
Bill Simmons
You don't think Parsons gets into play this year, right?
- [16:09]
Shield Capati
I don't. I think this is the Cowboys being the Cowboys. Let's, you know, get ourselves in the headlines for three months over some nonsense and then we'll end up making him the highest paid defensive player in NFL history. I don't know how you treat. I don't know how you take yourself seriously and trade, you know, like a generational defensive player like that, but I guess, who knows?
- [16:28]
Bill Simmons
Well, it's the thing where you've already committed to these other guys money wise and it's almost like you've made the mistake of doing that and now you compound the mistake by doing the second thing. It's almost like the Embiid extension the Sixers did where it's like, well, we're all in. Okay, here's the extension and you're just making things worse. So Eagles plus 6:50 on FanDuel to win the super bowl again. They're the favorites. Casey seven to one, which I thought was ambitious because that's an aging team in a lot of respects. I don't know. They have the same offensive line problems that half the league has. It can't be like, well, we need a left tackle. Well, cool. Fifteen teams in the to left tackle. Kelsey don't even know if he's coming back or not. I thought that was pretty ambitious to have them tied with the Ravens. The Ravens are 7 to 1 too. I probably would have had the Ravens as the favorite at coming out of the AFC. Detroit's down to 9 to 1. San Francisco's 12 to 1. Buffalo plus 7:50. And then we get into some intriguing teams. When you go into like the longer shot odds like Texans 28 to 1 kind of jumped out to me a whiff. Vikings 32 to 1. If you, you can make a case for McCarthy to be good next year. But they have a lot of cap space too. Thought that was interesting. And then really nobody. Is there anybody else you were thinking long shot wise that you're like, I want to see what happens with their draft and free agency and there might be value.
- [17:53]
Shield Capati
Now the packers, you didn't mention in there. I don't think. Did I miss the pack? I might have missed the Packers.
- [17:58]
Bill Simmons
21 to 1 Packers.
- [18:00]
Shield Capati
Okay. Yeah. Like they're a team that I think just had sort of a weird year where I think there is a path to them being in the mix and being really good next year.
- [18:08]
Bill Simmons
Well, they're trying to ban the Tush push. So they're already like getting on it right now.
- [18:13]
Shield Capati
That that has made Eagles fans much more angry than anything the Sixers are doing. They've turned their wrath to the packers and they're like those losers. They want to ban this play that they can't stop. So that's interesting. And then I think a team that we'll get to here and talk about quite a bit, the Rams, we don't know what they're going to do, but if you look at sort of the Eagles super bowl path, who was the one team that really played them tough in the snow and it came down to the final possession, it was the Rams. And you can really look at the Rams the last two years and be like if you played every season out 10 times, there's definitely a scenario where I think they get to the super speaker each of the last two seasons. So they're another team that stands out to me a little bit as well.
- [18:53]
Bill Simmons
They also fucked up everybody who was going against the Eagles the last two rounds. Cause they really came on like a freight train in that Rams in the Rams Eagles game. And that was the worst the Eagles looked the whole playoffs. Just for, you know, that fourth quarter I brought you on to do a little quarterback roulette. Usually teams we go into the off season and teams need quarterbacks, but it feels like it's an unusual amount of this could go this way, this could go this way, this could go this way. I wanted to go through all the scenarios, but we should start with the Rams before we go through the draft pick teams. The Rams, they have Stafford, they have the 26 pick, they have 44.3 million in cap space. There's some weird Stafford stuff where if they trade him, they take a massive cap hit for this season. Right. They save like 4 million bucks, something like that. But long term lot dead cap 45.3 and they would save 4.3. The new team that takes him, he'd count for 27 million, 4 million guaranteed this year and 31 million next year. Is it realistic to you that he gets traded? We don't usually see this with a team trading an expensive quarterback and taking cap hit and then another team absorbing a big contract. Do you see him getting traded?
- [20:10]
Shield Capati
I think it's the biggest story in the NFL right now. It's the biggest domino to fall. And I think it really goes back to last off season where they were at ahead Matthew Stafford and the Rams with this contract. And ultimately the Rams gave in a little bit. It didn't happen, I think, until like the first day of training camp where finally they came to an agreement. But it's pretty clear that Matthew Stafford wants to cash in and feels like all this big quarterback money that's getting paid out there, he feels like he's playing better than those guys. And I think Peter schrager threw out $50 million per year is what he's seeking. So this isn't just like a new thing that's cropped. That's what makes me think there's some legs to it and he could get traded. Now, having said that.
- [20:48]
Bill Simmons
Well, hold on on the 50 million a year, because that's 2 is making that and Hertz is making that. So if I'm Matthew Stafford, I'm like, I'm worth 50 million a year. Look at that guy and that guy.
- [20:57]
Shield Capati
Yeah, and even last year, Kirk Cousins, often Achilles similar age, got 46 and a half million dollars per year. So I get that aspect of it and I get the aspect of the Rams saying, dude, you're going to be 37 years old. We've paid you a lot of money over the years. You're under contract. We can't commit to like three more years of Matthew Stafford because we just watched Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers and old quarterbacks around the NFL. When the cliff comes, it comes pretty quickly. So I think that's what this is about with the two sides. And so I don't know, you know, they've given Stafford and his agent permission. Hey, go negotiate with other teams, see what you can get. And then the Rams can decide, hey, is that compensation worth it? I think what's going to happen is everyone's going to take a deep breath and the Rams are going to say, we are a good team with Matthew Stafford. We have a chance to make noise in the playoffs. We want him back. And Stafford's going to say, do I want to go chase Something with the New York Giant, it's not going to be as good of a situation wherever he goes. And if he's thinking, hey, I want to win, I want to have that hall of Fame resume, maybe when my career is over, there's no better situation than Los Angeles. So if I'm making a prediction, it's that eventually they reach some type of agreement and he's back with the Rams. But given that it's the second year in a row and there could be hurt feelings and it could get personal, all those things, you never know.
- [22:17]
Bill Simmons
Well. And there's a lot of posturing through the press, which always makes me suspicious. The more posturing publicly, the more I. I usually think this is just people rolling up their sleeves, showing some biceps, but nothing's actually going to happen. I looked at all the scenarios for trade teams for him, and people were mentioning the Giants, like you said. I have no idea why he'd want to do that. He already took an insane amount of punishment when he was on the Lions the first half of his career.
- [22:42]
Shield Capati
Right.
- [22:42]
Bill Simmons
He's 37. I also think. Kyle, turn the TikTok camera on. I think I was thinking about how LeBron and Brady have ruined our perspective with guys in their late 30s. To the point now that LeBron looks great. I think LeBron might be a second team all NBA guy at this point. The way he's playing and how much he's. He's invested in defense. Especially the last month and a half where he's. He's been one of the top 10 guys in the league for two months now. And then you have Brady playing till he's 45, but there's really no other examples. You go like, oh, look at Chris Paul. He's still doing really well in the spurs. Like, yeah, he's 10 and 8. You know, I just. I would be so nervous with the Stafford thing. So if I'm the Giants, I'm not trading a third pick for him. Maybe it's like the third for the Rams, have the 26 for the 26th and Stafford. And then I'm using all my cap space for Stafford. Where am I going? I'm going to be like, I'm in the same division as the Eagles. How does that make me better? The only team I think makes sense is the Raiders. The raiders have almost 100 million in cap space. They have Carroll, they have some blue Chippers on both sides. I don't think it's inconceivable that they could be pretty good next year if they Had Stafford and then, you know, didn't give up the 6 pick in the trade. Is there any other team do you like that Raiders fit for him?
- [24:04]
Shield Capati
We are 100% on the same page. Can we just pour cold water on the Giants thing a little bit more for a second? I'm with you.
- [24:10]
Bill Simmons
They stink.
- [24:11]
Shield Capati
This is one of the dumbest ideas. Like. Like they would be just making a desperate move to save their jobs and all of a sudden, Matthew Stafford going to go across the country at 37 years old and they're going to rebuild their offensive line and they're going to add more pass catching help and they're going to improve a defense that was bottom five in the NFL. And Stafford's going to look as good without Sean McVay. All those things are going to happen and this is going to work out beautifully for the cold weather instead of a dome. Give me a break.
- [24:37]
Bill Simmons
The Eagles twice a week or twice a year. And Parsons twice a year. Come on. And Washington. Come on.
- [24:43]
Shield Capati
Thank you. Terrible idea. So we're on the same page there. I thought I was going to surprise you with the Raiders is my wild card. We're on. That's the one I can see because I can see Tom Brady going, like you just said, dude. Matthew, come here. I can show you some ways to stay healthy, extend your career. You are one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL. I don't want these young guys. They're dummies. They can't get to the third read on the back. No, I know you can play quarterback. We're going to bring you in. Pete Carroll, he's like, I'm not trying to rebuild anything here. Let's go get a quarterback who I know I can win with right away. So I don't love the roster. You're probably a little bit higher on the roster maybe than I am. I see.
- [25:19]
Bill Simmons
I'm not. Don't. Don't mistake my. Me high in the roster. I'm just saying they have a couple of good players and they have cap space. Yeah.
- [25:26]
Shield Capati
They got Brock Bowers, Max Crosby, and then they would need to rebuild things. But again, he's playing in a controlled environment indoors.
- [25:33]
Bill Simmons
Wilkins, too. They've three blue chippers.
- [25:35]
Shield Capati
Yeah. So they had. They have three guys there. So that's the one I looked at and I thought I could see the Raiders. If there's a team that says we're willing to go there. 50 million a year, two years, let's go. Let's win right now. We'll give you maybe A second round pick or whatever to the Rams. And Stafford says, hey, Pete Carroll, Tom Brady, that sounds pretty good to me. I want to get paid what I'm worth.
- [25:58]
Bill Simmons
Well, a thing that you and I both love when we're doing the futures in the off season is new coach replacing an incompetent coach, which I think is the case here with the Raiders. And then way better QB replacing a bunch of shit QBs. They fit that recipe too. And there's, there's some Washington parallels with them. And none of us had the balls to pick Washington as a team that could potentially, you know, make the, make the NFC title game or even the playoffs. But there was a recipe we all looked at and we're like, ah, man, they just, they need too much help. But they did have the new coach who was way better than the old coach and the QB that could come in and potentially be way, way better than what they were getting in qb. Both of those things happen. They hit some draft picks, they hit some free agents. I don't feel like the Raiders are that far away from that recipe. I don't think the Patriots are either. Those are the two teams that I think you have to take seriously. But for them, like, you know, if they were able to keep that six pick, get somebody awesome, trade for Stafford, nail one more pick, get two more guys in frag, and then all of a sudden you hope the Chiefs go backwards. You hope the Chargers kind of stay where they are. You kind of. You could talk yourself into it, I guess is my point.
- [27:09]
Shield Capati
Yeah, it's tough in the afc. Like I don't see a path really for them to get to the super bowl, but it's not about that for every team. Yeah. Can they win?
- [27:17]
Bill Simmons
Can they be confident again?
- [27:18]
Shield Capati
Yeah. Can they sneak into the playoffs and have a moment where they've just been such a beat down franchise? I think that is within the realm of possibilities there.
- [27:27]
Bill Simmons
Well, Carroll and Stafford over Gardner Minshew and Antonio Pierce. That's five wins. I don't even care who else is on the team that you have to be. I'm just making that a plus five. All right, we got to go through some of these, some of these teams.
- [27:42]
Shield Capati
I spent all morning, by the way, Bill, just. But the placing team with quarterback. What do I think's going to happen? What's the most interesting thing?
- [27:49]
Bill Simmons
So, you know, we've built up so much drama. We got to take a break. Let's take a break. We'll come back. QB Roulette. This episode is brought to you by Audi the all new fully electric Audi Q6E Tron. A huge leap forward featuring effortless power, serious acceleration and the most advanced tech of any Audi ever. Experience technology that puts you center stage with a panoramic digital stage plus an optional screen for front seat passengers. That sounds fun. Perfect for watching the latest sports documentary. Maybe I made it. The Q6E Tron is not just the new evidence, it's a new way to experience driving. Learn more@audiusa.com always pay careful attention to the road. Do not drive while distracted. You know the game's tipping off, but did you know the NBA action is just beginning on FanDuel, America's number one sports book? My friends, FanDuel your home for NBA live betting. Even if you missed the first few minutes of the game or you want to bet on a fourth quarter comeback, you can make your picks from the first whistle until the final buzzer. And sometimes there's some good stuff in the fourth quarters. You never know the threes. You can jump in, somebody's down 15, screw it, jump in on their money line and ride the wave. When they make a big comeback, you can combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. However you want to play. Now is the perfect time to join and I still love the futures. When I was in Boston recently, all the playoff stuff. Who's going to make the playoffs? You can parlay stuff together. I'm on the airplane, we're about to take off. I'm still making like teaming playoff bets together. Great stuff. New FanDuel customers get started with $150 in bonus bets. If your first $5 bet wins, visit FanDuel.com BS to join today. FanDuel.com BS for your shot at $150 and bonus bets. Make every moment more with FanDuel, official sports betting partner of the NBA. You must be 21 plus in President select states or 18 plus in President in D.C. first online real money wager only $5 first deposit required bonus this year that's nondrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fander.com gambling problem. Call Win 100 Gambler. Visit rg-help.com all right, the Titans are on the clock at number one. They have $51 million in cap space. They have the same coach, they have the first pick of the draft and they have Will Levis at quarterback, who I think we can all agree it's not happening. There's two separate questions here. Why wouldn't they just take Cam Ward? I know you're starting to do your draft prep. People do not think he is the best player in this class. I think there's consensus. McShay had his great newsletter this weekend. Our draft guys are talking about it too. You can say there's either two or three elite players in the draft, right? Abdul Carter, Travis Hunter, and then I personally. And as you know, I don't watch a lot of college football, but I've prepped for this draft a lot. It seems like Mason Graham to me is a home run pick and an elite guy. So those three guys came. Ward is not better than any of them, but QB matters the most. And if you can hate with the guy in the rookie scale, that's the best thing you can do. So two questions. Why wouldn't they just take Cam Ward? And if they didn't, why wouldn't they trade back to a team that wanted to take Cam Ward? Because I think he should be the first pick. What are your thoughts on that?
- [31:08]
Shield Capati
I think the thing with, I think the reason why they wouldn't is because teams are kind of overconfident in their ability to evaluate quarterbacks. And we see it every year. Like this time at last year, this time last year, we're talking about Jaden Daniels, but we're pointing out all the flow. Like no one. I don't know that anyone had the take that he's going to come in and turn around the franchise right away and be the guy. No one was that confident. And we see it year after year with the way these guys get drafted high, they don't pan out. Other guys get drafted later in the first round or the second round. So I think it's fair to look at Cam Ward and say, you know, there, there are some questions there. But I'm with you if you see the upside. And I think by all accounts the people who have already studied this and I still have to look at it a little bit closer, but they say he has the tools, he has the upside, he has the athletic traits, he has the arms. So if you have those things, sometimes you just have to take a swing and like it's different to take a guy with the first pick than to trade three first round picks to get up to the top five. Like if you draft, if you're the Titan, you draft Cam Ward, you keep him for two years, it's not really working out. He's not the guy. You're just sort of back to where you are now, but with good players because hopefully you've added pieces to the roster. It's not like, you know, you're a complete dumpster fire of a franchise and you have to come up with all these solutions. So I think that they should look into taking him if they reach the threshold of, hey, he has the upside and we got to find a quarterback. I'm not convinced that they're going to do that just because they've been a train wreck of an organization. Let's call it what I mean, they can't figure out which way the wind blows. Who do they want the GM to be? Who do they want the coach to be? What's their plan? They spend big in free agency.
- [32:41]
Bill Simmons
So seems like a top five worst owner right now.
- [32:44]
Shield Capati
I agree. Yes. Yeah.
- [32:45]
Bill Simmons
Like to be like, yeah, Rabel's not our guy. Let's. Let's let me back the gm who I'm then going to fire your later. That just tells me you don't know what you're doing.
- [32:54]
Shield Capati
Exactly. So I sort of lean towards them being safer and just drafting the best possible player. May be saying, hey, Cam, Ward's not perfect, so let's go in a different direction. And I wonder if other teams look at Ward and say he's good enough. Where we want to give up draft capital to move up to number one or maybe we hang tight and see who falls to us.
- [33:13]
Bill Simmons
So there's two possible moves for them if it's not Cam Ward. One is you flip picks with the Giants one to three. If you think the Giants. The Giants are fired up for him and are worried that they're not going to get him, that he's not going to fall to three, that somebody's going to trade above them. They just want to lock it down. I mean, would you trade. Trade down two spots if you could get a Giants future first out of it? I wouldn't do it for the second rounder. I think that's too much. In the history of the draft is if you're trading up for a quarterback, you've got to have another first in the deal. We've just. That's how it's gone. If I'm the Titans and I need help everywhere and I could go from one to three and I know I'm still getting Carter or Hunter at two at number three and I'm getting a Giants pick, which I would really want because I don't think they're going to be good anytime soon. I would do that. I don't know if I would do it if I was the Giants because I. Like we discussed earlier, I don't know where I'm going. If I'm the Giants, I'd probably just. I just want a good player. But that's. That's the only trade that makes sense to me for them.
- [34:18]
Shield Capati
Yeah, I'm with you. I think if you're the Titans, I would absolutely do that. Move down two spots and get a future first. That'd be smart business. The Giants would have to really. Now, the Giants are an interesting team because they are in job preservation mode. And these are the teams that act the most recklessly because they don't really care what's happening three years down.
- [34:36]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I'm getting fired. I'm getting fired next year if this doesn't work out.
- [34:40]
Shield Capati
My favorite GMs for content. These are the best teams, so maybe they do it. I sort of think, feel like that might even they. I don't know that they'll like him that much to say, yeah, we'll give up next year's first to move up two spots.
- [34:52]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, content MVPs, brand new owners and GMs who need to do something desperate because if it doesn't work out, they're getting fired anyway. That just the MVPs for 25 years. For me, I don't really see any other moves up to the one spot. Unless it was the Raiders and they dangled six and a future first and maybe even took like a bad contract from the Titans because they have the cap space to actually absorb something. That's the only other one. Like I, you know, like the, the draft order is Titans, Browns, Giants. The Pats aren't trading up for Cam Ward. Jacksonville's not trading up for Cam Ward at number five. So it would really just be the Raiders. Unless there's a Jet scenario that I, I think there's a more interesting version of this. But they have the seventh pick and if Garrett Wilson was on the table with the seventh pick to move up to one, I'm at least having a meeting about that if I'm the Titans, but I'm probably not doing it.
- [35:52]
Shield Capati
I think the jets need to be in just relax mode, reset everything. Like, I don't think this is the year for them to take a big swing on something like that for a quarterback. Just kind of rebuild the culture, add to the roster in the draft. So that, that would surprise me a little bit. The Raiders. A lot of sort of links between Shador Sanders and the Raiders, where he and Tom Brady have a relationship. He and Mark Davis, I think have a relationship. That one's interesting to me because I think, you know, we mentioned Stafford, but let's say Stafford's not on the table. They might look at it. And Pete Carroll's not going to be afraid to play a young quarterback. He's done that before, obviously with Russell Wilson. And if Tom Brady's like, no, trust me, this, I just feel like whoever Tom Brady wants, that's going to be the quarterback of the Raiders, maybe that's wrong. But every time I'm looking at some of the options, I'm like, Tom Brady's not going to want Sam Darnold for, you know, 30 plus million dollars a year. And I'm like, Stafford, I could see it. Shador Sanders, I could see it. And then maybe if those don't pan out, Gina, are or are they the Aaron Rodgers team? Where again, oh God. You would look at it and say, you know what, he's a veteran but he can still play. He's going to be good in this system. So I think the Raiders might be the most interesting of any of these teams that need a quarterback.
- [37:07]
Bill Simmons
We'll go back to that top of the draft. I'm just going to give everybody the possibilities. Here are the quarterback possibilities. If you're looking for one. Cam Ward, who's going to be a top four pick. Shador Sanders, who I think is going to be, I would say top eight pick, maybe top nine pick, he's going to, he's going to go in the first nine, I just don't know where. And we're going to know is he, did he go to the combine or did he skip it?
- [37:30]
Shield Capati
Uh, I don't think he's participating in the combine.
- [37:33]
Bill Simmons
Cause there's some athleticism stuff with him that's funny cuz his dad's Dion, but I think everyone talks about he's tough, he's smart, he processes everything. But athletically, he's not actually as athletic as you would think he is. So I'm sure that at some point people are going to want to see it with their own eyes. And then there's the Jackson Dart. Late first round, early second. Could he have like a bo? Knicks rise out of nowhere. That's it for guys who could actually start for a team next year. Then you have Stafford. We talked about all the cap stuff with him. Sam Darnold, Garoppolo Rogers, Russell Wilson, the corpse of Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Justin Fields and my guy Joe Milton, who I don't know if you've seen don't, don't look at who's on Buffalo's team in week 18. Just look at what Joe Milton is doing. Don't look to see if there are any starters on the field. Joe Milton, is he worth the first round pick?
- [38:29]
Shield Capati
Probably Eagles version of that is Tanner McKee, by the way. You know, there are a couple of those guys who the fan base of that team is like, would you take a first for this guy? I don't know. You know, you probably want to hold on to him.
- [38:42]
Bill Simmons
Is there anyone else that I've listed all those QBs, is there anyone else you had that? It's like, ah, I could see that guy starting.
- [38:48]
Shield Capati
All right, do you want a little wild card that I don't think is going to happen?
- [38:51]
Bill Simmons
Do I need to buckle up? Should I put my seatbelt on?
- [38:53]
Shield Capati
Buckle up a little bit. The Pittsburgh Steelers call the Indianapolis Colts and say, we will give you a third round pick for Anthony Richardson. A quarterback who. You guys know you don't like him anyway. You benched him last year. You brought him back in. The vibes were terrible. You want to admit your mistake. You know you're not going to get a first for him. Obviously at this point he's been injured and he hasn't done anything yet. But we'll give you a third round pick and then you can decide what you want to do at quarterback. So Anthony Richardson goes to Pittsburgh under the Mike Tomlin umbrella. They get a young quarterback, they get a new culture, they run the football with him. And the Indianapolis Colts, Bill, they are your Sam Darnold team. They say, you know what, we're going to give Sam Darnold 35ish million dollars per year. We're going to admit our mistake with Anthony Richardson and take the third round pick. And this is going to be the trade that shakes up the NFL this offseason. How do we.
- [39:52]
Bill Simmons
Wow. So The Colts have 30 million in Cav space right now and they have the 14th pick. And if they traded Richardson, I would assume there's some sort of cap hit to it, but not that much because he's on a rookie contract. So maybe that gets them into Darnold range. What's Darnold worth for you before. Before I tell you whether I like this idea or not because the franchise tag for him would be 44, 42.4 million franchise tags. Because people were thinking, oh, you could see the Vikings franchise, that would be insane for them to do that. I personally think they have 60 million in cap space. So you're Just going to use all of that to franchise tag them and then hope you can trade them. Why would they do that? So what's he actually worth? Because he's not worth 44.
- [40:38]
Shield Capati
Yeah, I'm with you. That's the other. The posturing you mentioned earlier with the Stafford. I think that's the Darnold stuff. Give me a break. They're going to franchise tag him and then trade him and keep a $40 million cap hold out. I don't see any team.
- [40:49]
Bill Simmons
We've never seen anyone do that.
- [40:51]
Shield Capati
No, I wouldn't see it. I think the comp is the Baker Mayfield deal from. Was it last year or two years ago? Where he got, I think was 33, 33 and a half million dollars per year was like a three year, $100 million deal. I think that's kind of the best case scenario for Sam Darnold where if there's a team that says, you know what, I know it didn't end well for him, but we like him, he can play well for us. We're going to pay him real starter money. I think that's the number. Because the weird thing about the NFL is there's no kind of middle ground for these contracts. Like, the only quarterback making between 15 and $30 million per year is Geno Smith. So it's either you're a bridge quarterback and you're. Or a backup and you're under $15 million per year, or it's no, we believe in you as our starter and you're making between 30 and 60 million dollars per year.
- [41:39]
Bill Simmons
It's almost like Hollywood actors where you have, like, you have your Tom Cruise types and then you, you drop like majorly to the next, to the next level of like, yeah, we could put that guy in a poster. But it does, you know, you don't really have to spend a lot of money for it. I, I personally think 30 million for Darnold's too high. But I can't shake the last two games. I don't know how you get past that. If you're running a team and you're thinking about if the, if the goal is to actually try to win the super bowl, there might be some other teams that just. Their goal would be competency and then maybe it makes sense. But, you know, Mayfield, at least Mayfield had done, you know, he had pulled the Browns, he'd won a playoff game. There was some, some sort of history. And then he had a really good comeback year and there was some stuff you could point to. I don't Know, I'd be really nervous about that. So you think Colts potentially for him? I don't see it with the Raiders. The Steelers would be the other one because. Just because they have the cap space and if they could get him and sell him on the culture and be like 60 million for three years, make him a $20 million guy maybe. Yeah. You seem suspicious.
- [42:55]
Shield Capati
I look at it and yeah, my Richardson trade was more team content and I don't expect that to happen. I'm with you. So I think you look at it. The Steelers, when I was just going through all the teams, they were one of the teams left where I said, okay, I don't have a place for Sam Darnold. So in that sense I could see it. Is he the type of guy Mike Tomlin wants though? You know, like he's going to probably.
- [43:16]
Dave Bernat
I don't know.
- [43:16]
Bill Simmons
What. What is Mike, Tom. Mike Tomlin's like your buddy who just dates all kinds of girls. You have no idea what his type is. He's been all over the map. I mean think of all the QBs they've run in and out of there. He's trying to talk himself into Trubisky and you know, is he Russell Wilson great? Justin Fields? I don't. Does he have a type?
- [43:35]
Shield Capati
Yeah, no. That's a good point. You're right. I don't know what it is. So I don't know that they would want to pay that kind of money for Sam Darnold. Would they rather just take a one year flyer on somebody? Are they in there and Rogers team, you know, potentially the Steelers.
- [43:49]
Bill Simmons
Can I ask you this? Are you an Aaron Rodgers team? Would you. Would you want to do a year with Aaron Rodgers? I'm out. There's no way I'm going near that dude.
- [43:57]
Shield Capati
I would want.
- [43:57]
Bill Simmons
And from what we saw last year, he doesn't want to get hit anymore and he doesn't have legs anymore. Like I just don't see it.
- [44:03]
Shield Capati
I agree. And all the stuff that comes with it, I would want nothing to do with it. The Steelers kind of just sit back and look at who's left there. So that's why I threw them out there for him. The tight with the Titans, if they don't draft a quarterback at one who's playing quarterback for the Titans, would they look at Sam Darnold or somebody like Derek Carr and say let's just get sort of a short term option for a couple years while we build up.
- [44:25]
Bill Simmons
The Derek Carr I'm out. That's a. I'm Blind out. Can I throw a name at you that I feel like his stock is too far down compared to what it should be. Garoppolo. Okay, so terrible Raiders year, right? Immortalized in the devonte Adams wide receiver show. Just him being pissed off the whole year. But we've also seen he's had success and there was a while where the biggest criticism for him would be like, well, when he's on the field, he's good, but he keeps getting hurt, he keeps getting dinged up, he takes hits. He's just. It's. The durability would be the question for him. And now we've moved into this phase of he's just not good at quarterback. And I'm not sure I believe that because, you know, the Niners came pretty close to winning a Super bowl with him, which is a lot more than we could say about anyone else we're talking about on this list except Rogers, who's washed up. And I'm just like, if I'm going to pay 30 million for Sam Darnold, I would kind of rather pay 5 million for Garoppolo and try to build an offensive line around him so he's not taking big hits and do that because I've seen him do it before. I don't think he can do it if he doesn't have a line. But if you're actually blocking for him, I. It's not inconceivable to me that he'd be good.
- [45:42]
Shield Capati
Yeah.
- [45:42]
Bill Simmons
You agree or disagree?
- [45:43]
Shield Capati
No, I think you're right. If you have the infrastructure, you know, in place. I think the problem with a lot of these teams we're talking about and look at like, do they have a good offensive line? Do they have good wide receivers? Do they have a good play caller? Now, you could have those caveats for a lot of the quarterbacks we're discussing here as well, but I do agree with you. I would rather take a flyer on Jimmy garoppolo for under 10 million, then commit to Sam Darnold on that Baker Mayfield contract. Then to have all the stuff that comes with Aaron Rodgers at this age, like, I would rather just buy some time because I think you're right. When he's on the field, he will give you a baseline level of competency where you will be able to run your offense, your other players will get their touches, you build up the roster and then you see where you're at a year from now. So, yeah, I don't think that's a wrong way to look at it. The Rams, would they, if they were to trade Matthew Stafford, would they just say, hey, Garoppolo's been here. Let's do a year with Garoppolo and then we'll figure it out after that?
- [46:39]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, like, like if the Seahawks charted Gino, which we'll talk about in a second, and they were like, we're going to bring in Jimmy cheaper price, I'd be like, that's a bad idea. You guys can't Bach like, Jimmy's going to just take a lot of hits and run for his life and he's going to suck like he did on the Raiders. But if it was a team that had a little more stability, like I actually think the Steelers, if they can get their offensive line healthy next year, it's a good offensive line, potentially. They've certainly invested in it. And he seems like more of a steward type to me. Going backwards. Browns at 2, no QB and Watson out for the year with the Achilles thing. This is another team that's like, why wouldn't they take King Ward if he was sitting there at 2? They're never going to have another chance to sign a QB trade for one. They're in this Watson hell. And everyone's like, well, do you see them take Hunter or Carter? I don't understand why they wouldn't take a quarterback if they liked Ward. Why wouldn't they?
- [47:35]
Shield Capati
I'm with you. With these teams, like you only get so many chances at drafting a quarterback and it's not that the likelihood is high that you're going to hit, but it's what happens if you do actually hit. It totally changes you. And especially for a team like this, that is in cap hell, that has signed the worst contract of any player in NFL history with DeSean Watson and there's no way out of it. Like I see the rumors that, hey, Kurt, trade, go get Kirk Cousins. I mean, where does that leave you? You know, 37 year old Kirk Cousins.
- [48:03]
Bill Simmons
And then much rather have Garoppolo than Kirk Cousins.
- [48:06]
Shield Capati
Yeah.
- [48:06]
Bill Simmons
So I think is going to retire and be on TV next year would be my prediction for him.
- [48:11]
Shield Capati
Interesting. Maybe. Yeah.
- [48:12]
Bill Simmons
Because he's getting paid either way. He's getting most of the Atlanta money. Why does he want to keep playing? He's had a great life, he's made a bunch of money and he'll be an immediate like I think like an aggressive TV candidate.
- [48:25]
Shield Capati
Okay, I like that. I hadn't thought about that. I was looking at where Kirk Cousins might end up, but I'm with you. Basically we're on the same page with the teams at the top of the draft. Like, I think too often teams are like, this isn't an Andrew Luck type prospect. You know, this isn't whoever. We can't take them because if it goes back to the job security thing, because they're like, if we miss on this, we're not going to get a chance to draft another quarterback. I do think that's a big deal. We talked about the Eagles at the top. Like, Howie Roseman can make mistakes. They signed Bryce Huff last year for $17 million per year and he was inactive in the Super Bowl. Guess what? It doesn't matter. He's allowed to take those risks. They had Carson Wentz on a huge deal and they were able to trade him. Other organizations that don't have stability, their GMs are making decisions based on, is this potentially going to get me fired? And they can't get that out of their head. Where if you had a guy who knew he had the job for the next 15, 20 years, I bet they'd be more likely to say, hey, Ken Ward's not perfect, but we kind of like him. Let's take a flyer on this because look at what the other options are.
- [49:26]
Bill Simmons
It's such an important point. The psychology of the people making the decision never gets factored into these mock drafts. If I'm running the Titans or if I'm running the Browns and I don't take Cam Ward and then he goes to the Giants at three and he's awesome, I'm getting fired. If I take Cam Ward, I'm buying two years. I'm in the same spot, like with Grigson on the Colts, with Richardson, where you take the guy, you're not really going to get criticized no matter what happens for two years. And there's always the illusion of hope with the QB you took, right? So with K Ward, I'm buying the illusion of hope for two years. I now I'm secure with my job. Same thing if the Giants were able to get him at three. That's why I think there's no scenario where he's not one of the top three picks. And I'd be really surprised. I just, I don't understand why the Browns would pass on him when they are just completely fucked with this Watson thing. And I also think, like, is it inconceivable Ward could go one and Sanders could go two and we'd be like, oh my God, we've seen Mitch Trubisky go second in a draft like the closer you get to these drafts. Like, everybody thinks Cam Ward isn't as good as the top three quarterbacks in last year's draft. Right. They don't even maybe think he's as good as Penix was last year. But when you're in these drafts and people need quarterbacks, all of a sudden the value just skyrockets for these stupid reasons. I think the Browns, they're so screwed. I don't know how they don't take a quarterback with one. Like, oh, cool, we have Travis Hunter. Great. I have nobody to throw the ball to him. And our defense is going to be on the field all the time. I'll probably get hurt. Giants at three, no QB except Drew Lock, third pick, 38.7 million cap space. And this, this seems like another, another QB spot for me. I. There's a pot. Like, could you trade three for Stafford and 26. You could. I, as we covered. I don't know how it makes sense.
- [51:18]
Shield Capati
Yeah, I think they're, I think their best case scenario is to stay put. And those quarterbacks don't go one and two and you take a quarterback, they almost, they're. They're like the team that has to, they have to make a move. I don't even think they have a quarterback on the roster right now. And they're not going to be like, oh, let's sign a bridge guy like Garoppolo again for what we just talked about. Because they are jobs on the line so they have to take a swing. They seem like the Cam Ward team if he doesn't go one or two. And if he does, I think you have to maybe look at Shador Sanders there.
- [51:49]
Bill Simmons
It could be a Russell Wilson team too. Like, there's a case for Russell Wilson for a team like that. We say, hey, you made the playoffs last year. He's pretty good for the Steelers, right? We get him for cheap because he's still being, he's still on that giant contract. He's in New York. He knows how to handle the city. You could talk yourself into that. We're going to suck anyway. Why am I spending money on a quarterback and if I'm not drafting one. Raiders at 6. 6 pick, 99.5 million cap space. There was stuff online as we were taping this morning about Pete Carroll talking to the, the Seahawks guy. A lot of people wonder if Geno might get traded. What is Geno worth to you? Like, let's say the Raiders are like, geno's our guy. We're going to get him. We're going to give him a new contract. This is the guy we want. He's competent enough. He can throw the ball. He's had some success. This is who we like. Is it a second round pick for Geno? Is it? We'll give you the six for Geno in the 18. What's the trade?
- [52:53]
Shield Capati
My initial gut went to second round pick. I don't think you're getting a first round pick for Geno Smith at his age. You're also going to have to redo his contract. So you're making a financial commitment to him. He's going into the final year of his deal. That's interesting.
- [53:07]
Bill Simmons
Sixth for Gino in 18. Would you do that if you're the Seahawks and then you use the money and you sign? I don't know. Sam Darnold.
- [53:16]
Shield Capati
I wouldn't do that if I were the Seahawks.
- [53:18]
Bill Simmons
I don't think I would either.
- [53:19]
Shield Capati
Yeah, I don't.
- [53:20]
Bill Simmons
How about this? I wouldn't trade Gino Smith if I were the Seahawks.
- [53:22]
Shield Capati
I wouldn't either. Yeah, I wouldn't either.
- [53:24]
Bill Simmons
So I don't draft an offensive line for him. Add a couple. Add a couple of people who can block. Cause that was why you. You lost last year.
- [53:32]
Shield Capati
Yeah, it's true. I mean, if they had a great off season where they were able to upgrade just the offensive line and like not do anything else, we might be on here in August saying, hey, we like the Seahawks to win the NFC West. I mean, they won 10 games last year with a bad offensive line, with a defensive coach implementing a system for the first time. Like, I think their defense is going to be pretty good next year. So I'm with you. Yeah, I don't know if they give him an extension. You know, in terms of an extension for Gino, it's either the floor is probably that Baker Mayfield deal we talked about 33 million per year. But he might look at it and go, give me a break. Like, I'm playing better. Like you said, behind this offensive line, the salary cap has gone up. I want over $40 million per year. And then at his age, in his mid-30s, if you're the Seahawks, are you comfortable doing that?
- [54:17]
Bill Simmons
He's like, look at all my come from behind wins. And then they're like, let's throw in the Cardinals tape of. Of some of the throws you made in that game. Jets at 7. Oh, by the way, with the Raiders, we feel like Stafford is a real possibility there. That's our favorite Raiders move, right? Or taking Sanders. Yes, there's one More Sanders piece that I forgot to mention during the Raiders part. If Sanders is at 4 for the Patriots, I don't know why they wouldn't flip picks with them at that point. If the Patriots. Sanders is still there and the Patriots signal. We're trading. We're trading out of this pick because we have a bunch of people that want Sanders. You could just move up and take them. But give us your first next year. Four and six, we'll flip. Give us next year's first, and we'll throw in our third round pick next year. I'm doing that in five seconds. If I'm the Pats.
- [55:19]
Shield Capati
If you're the Pats, yes. I just. These quarterbacks, I don't know that the league thinks as highly of them that they would say I'm giving up a future first, now I think there's a trade there to be made. Move from four to six.
- [55:28]
Bill Simmons
So. Second, would you do four and six for the second?
- [55:31]
Shield Capati
Something like that? Sure, Yeah, I would think about something like that. I think. I mean, when we're doing these, it's like, yeah, who. You're old, you know, who would say no? The Patriots, I think, are still saying yes to that. Whereas the other team, the Raiders, might be like, I still don't know if I want to go that high. But, yeah, I think if they like Sanders and they want to go get him, I would have no issue with them making a move like that.
- [55:53]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Because if they're at 6 and they're basically talking themselves into Mason Graham or the. Or the best left tackle at that point, who, unfortunately, people aren't positive he's a left tackle, which makes me nervous. Will Campbell, it's like, no, he's almost definitely a tackle, but he does have short arms. He might be a guard. It's like, well, if he might be a guard, I'm not taking him in the top six. I'm just not. You can't spend a top six pick on somebody who might be a guard.
- [56:18]
Shield Capati
I like him. I mean, he played, literally played left tackle in the sec, you know, and then. And then we start measuring the arm length and I like, no, he's not going to play.
- [56:25]
Bill Simmons
I like him, too. Do I have to take him with the fourth pick? Do I take him with the six pick? Can I. Can I just move down and take them at 9?
- [56:32]
Shield Capati
Yeah.
- [56:34]
Bill Simmons
Jet 7, no QB, seventh pick, 11.2 million in cap space. Another possible Sanders spot. Can I just. Can I test drive you through Pat's, trade the 4 to the jets for Wilson and the 7 scenario, just for fun, just for shits and giggles, can you give me a who says no on that one? I got, I know, I got Nephi, Kyle's attention.
- [56:57]
Shield Capati
Jets are a no. I mean Garrett Wilson on his own traded, I believe would get a first round pick in return. If you look at wide receivers, I mean A.J. brown, all these guys who got traded in the last five years who have been young wide receivers who are very good get first round picks. So I don't want to, I didn't.
- [57:14]
Bill Simmons
Say it was a fair trade for the Jets. I just wanted to walk you through the scenario. What about four and, and our third which is high up in the third round for seven and Wilson, is that more interesting to you? And the jets take Sanders. Still not.
- [57:33]
Shield Capati
I'm not.
- [57:34]
Bill Simmons
We have to, we have to put our second in that for you to do it.
- [57:39]
Shield Capati
Yes. And even then, like if I'm the Jets, I. Why am I trading Garrett Wilson? Like we're like, hey, we know he's miserable.
- [57:46]
Bill Simmons
He doesn't want to be a Jet anymore.
- [57:47]
Shield Capati
Listen, this is why you hire Aaron Glenn.
- [57:49]
Bill Simmons
Come to Jake, bang. Come to Jake, bang.
- [57:52]
Shield Capati
Get him, get Aaron Glenn in a room with him and he may changes to him. That this is, that's why you hire Aaron Glenn to get through to some of these guys who have just been like, man, it has been miserable being a Jet. Well, it's not going to be miserable anymore. So I wouldn't trade number one wide receivers on rookie contracts.
- [58:07]
Bill Simmons
Okay. Seventh pick in the draft. The Sanders fall below seven because I don't see how the jets don't take him at 7. I don't see any scenario where that doesn't happen.
- [58:19]
Shield Capati
I don't think he falls below 6. I sort of feel like if he's there when the Raiders draft. Yeah. So I'm with you. I don't think so.
- [58:26]
Bill Simmons
We definitely have Hunter Carter who now they're talking about how his shoulders not 100% which could knock him out of the number one pick. Come to the Patriots, be our Willie McGinnis of this generation. Carter, Hunter Graham, the two QBs. And then it gets like when you start talking about who do you think is going to be six pick in this draft or in that top six. You'll get different answers from different people. Some people would say it's Campbell might be the cornerback from Michigan. So for the jets, like if they're just sitting there and both quarterbacks are gone at that point they're just, they're taking anybody a couple more Teams. Saints, they have the ninth pick, no cap space. And Derek Carr and Spencer Rattler. Good luck. No ability to trade. No ability to really do anything. Colts, we mentioned whether they move on from Richardson or not. Steelers, no QB whatsoever. 21st pick, 60.2 million in cap space. I'm not saying they're not a Stafford team. They could fit the contract in. Would you trade the 21st pick for Stafford? If you're the Steelers, you have to feel like you could win the title. If you're doing that.
- [59:41]
Shield Capati
It's a good one. It was another name that I had written down for him. I would have to think strongly about doing that if I'm the Steelers. When you look at their quarterback situation in recent years, and like you said, they made the playoffs last year with. It's not like they have a terrible team. They had a good defense. You know, things fell apart.
- [59:59]
Bill Simmons
Idiots like me were saying they were the best team in the AFC at the end of November, they really looked that way. And then they completely died and. Have we found T.J. watts body yet? What happened to him?
- [60:08]
Shield Capati
Yeah, where'd he go? So, offensively, it's not the greatest spot for Stafford when you look at just kind of the supporting cast. But you have Pickens. Maybe you can add a piece in the. In the draft here, in the later rounds. I would have to think about that. If I were the Steelers and given.
- [60:24]
Bill Simmons
Their other options, would you trade 21 for Geno Smith?
- [60:30]
Shield Capati
Wow. I actually think if I'm the Steelers, I like that. I would do that.
- [60:36]
Bill Simmons
I think I would, too.
- [60:37]
Shield Capati
I think I would do it. I know I pick. Yeah.
- [60:40]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. A couple more teams, then we'll go. The Niners. Purdy. One more year left on this deal. But this is the time when you blow up the deal. You give them the Giant extension, and you kind of have to decide. How much is Brock Purdy worth? Probably more than a Mayfield contract. Maybe less than a TUA contract. But TUA got the contract. He did. And that made me think he's probably worth the 2A contract.
- [61:05]
Shield Capati
Yeah. I say more than the 2A contract. I mean.
- [61:07]
Bill Simmons
Oh, Jesus. Really?
- [61:08]
Shield Capati
Yeah. Yeah. I. I think if. If I'm Bernie, maybe this. I mean, if 2 is getting $53 million per year and now the cap has gone up, how are you taking anything under than like 55 million per year? I mean, that's just what the price is for quarterback. Better than Birdie, I don't think.
- [61:25]
Bill Simmons
But they have the leverage of. How about you take 85% of that to a Deal and then you have the security. Whatever happens this season, you know you have the contract. What if the season goes badly? This is a pretty big financial decision. You're locking it up. Do it now. That would be the psychology you'd try to use against them, I guess. Like, look at what happened to you the second half of last season. You fell apart. We're not going to have Debo Samuel next year. God only knows how long we're going to have McCaffrey. God only knows how long Trent Williams is going to be healthy. Like, you sure you don't want this now?
- [62:00]
Shield Capati
I guess, but I think with the agents, I would be like, okay, cool, I'll play out the final year of my deal. Then you're going to tag me next year for what, $45 million per year. You're not going to be able to make any other moves. And then after that, I'm a free agent at the age of what? He's going to be in his late 20s, and I just saw what Kirk Cousins got on the open market. So unless I have a career ending injury, I'm going to be just fine with that. I don't know. I think that's probably the floor now. They could wait. The 49ers could wait. Say, play out the final year of your deal, maybe tag him. Just. You want. Do you want some more information before you commit that money to Brock Purdy? I think that would be reasonable, even if it costs you a little bit more in the long run.
- [62:39]
Bill Simmons
He should hire Kirk Cousins as his advisor just. Just to scare them. Seahawks, we mentioned Geno and the 18th pick. They're over the cap, so they basically have to figure out the Gino thing. Trading him is not going to really buy them flexibility. And then the last one is the Vikings, J.J. mcCarthy, year two. Darnold would be the 44.2 million franchise tag. They have the 24th pick and they have 60 million in cap space. And their team, we mentioned them earlier when we were talking about the super bowl odds. That's a team where the odds could shift pretty dramatically, like 32 to 1 right now. They do a couple moves and a couple things. All of a sudden I could see them getting the. Getting the bump watching them. Green Bay is the other one that I think we just kind of have to see how March and April go for these teams.
- [63:28]
Shield Capati
Yeah, it's like with Darnold, if you look at it on the whole, he probably performed statistically like the 14th or 16th best starter in the NFL. So that's kind of the bar. You need J.J. mcCarthy to clear. You don't need him to be like a top five quarterback. It's like with that system, with a good offensive coach, with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, can you upgrade aspects of the offensive line? Your offense really could be better next year than it was this year. And then you just put your faith in Brian Flores on the defensive side of the ball. So, yeah, that's the whole point of drafting McCarthy is that he's on a rookie deal. You don't have to pay Darnold anymore. You can upgrade other areas of the roster.
- [64:05]
Bill Simmons
Well, one thing, one question with them, with him, is, would he be the number one pick in this draft if teams knew he was 100% healthy? Because I think people like McCarthy last year, McCarthy as a draft prospect seems like it's higher than Cam Ward or Sanders this year. Right. And we're talking about how Cam Ward has to be in the top three. So my guess would be, you know, so you have to almost think of that way for the Vikings. Like, we, we used this capital last year with this great season, didn't end the way we wanted it, but now we have cap space and this guy who's coming in, who'd be the number one pick in the draft, but potentially, yeah, you're right.
- [64:40]
Shield Capati
I think he probably would be. I think everybody, you know, the people I've heard and like and respect who do this stuff have mostly said that the quarterbacks this year would certainly go below the top four guys from last year. So I think you're right.
- [64:53]
Bill Simmons
Can I give you one more crazy wild card trade and then we'll go?
- [64:56]
Shield Capati
Please.
- [64:56]
Bill Simmons
Just for your reaction, J.J. mcCarthy for Herbert.
- [65:04]
Shield Capati
Wow. The Chargers say no?
- [65:09]
Bill Simmons
Oh, I think they say no. I just wanted to, I wanted to talk it out.
- [65:12]
Shield Capati
I love it. Yeah.
- [65:13]
Bill Simmons
Harbaugh's like, ah, love what I, what I got from my guy last year, you know, who won me a title, McCarthy. I'd have some cap space. Like, I'm really interested in what the Chargers are doing because it seems like Bosa's out of there and it's. That's not as big of a deal as it probably is on paper because if you've watched him the last couple years, I don't think he's been Mr. Reliable, but it's a big foundational piece for them that didn't totally work out. And you think about what happened with them last season, where a lot of things lined up, schedule, some of the pieces they had, and now I don't like their scenario. Nearly as much this year. They got a free agent, right?
- [65:54]
Shield Capati
He's a free agent. So, yeah, they don't have a lot of. They don't have a ton of talent. Like, they've got good offensive tackles. They've got Herbert, they've got McConkey. So that's a nice sort of foundation, I guess, for the offense. I don't know if you trust Greg Roman to make the most out of those pieces. And then defensively, it's kind of has to be all coaching unless they can really add some upgrades here this off season.
- [66:15]
Bill Simmons
So you're working on your annual 50 best free agents ever for the season list?
- [66:21]
Shield Capati
That's right. I got the tab up right here.
- [66:23]
Bill Simmons
T. Higgins has been number one on a lot of lists. Who's my number one guy? I want the Patriots to get. Is there a scenario where the Bengals keep T. Higgins at a huge price and pay Chase and pay Burrow and have a competent football team? Because I don't understand how they would do it.
- [66:39]
Shield Capati
You can do it. Joe Burrow has talked about, hey, the Eagles did it. We can figure it. There are ways you can do it where you pay big money up front. You spread that cash out over the course of.
- [66:47]
Bill Simmons
The Eagles have way more money than the Bengals. Yeah, Bengals are cheap.
- [66:52]
Shield Capati
Yeah.
- [66:52]
Bill Simmons
You can't do it if you're cheap.
- [66:54]
Shield Capati
Yeah. I do love, though, Burrow is actually acting. He's doing an NBA player impersonation. Have you noticed that? He's, like, going out, being like, we need to do this. We need to pay this. Like, he is taking control of the team, like, putting pressure on ownership and the front office that if you guys don't do this, like, it's on you. I'm telling anyone who puts a microphone in front of my face what I think we should be doing with this organization. I think it's been kind of cool. And I don't. I don't know that you see a lot of quarterbacks go out there. Usually they're like, you know, that's not my job. You know, I just. I like him. But the Josh Allen person business. Yeah. So that. That's been a pretty fun storyline for me over the last, whatever, two or three months.
- [67:33]
Bill Simmons
Well, I'm sure he's looking at it like, dude, I want Chase and Higgins. Like. Like, we're going to be awesome if we just have the three of us and we'll figure out the rest. But you still like the Eagles. They have a great owner who's perfectly willing to spend money, spend money up Front. That's the game you have to do if you're going to play it that way. And the Bengals have been cheap. I'm dealing with this right now with the Patriots. The Patriots have been cheap for the last 10 years. They have some real opportunity now, cap space with the Drake May rookie contract to spend aggressively. Are they going to do it? Are they going to actually show out the cash? They haven't done it for a decade. We'll see. Yeah. I'll give you my dream scenario for the Pats, and we'll go, okay, trading back from four to six with the Raiders and either getting a future first or the Raiders second and a fourth, something like that. And then taking Mason Graham or the left tackle, who's ever left. The left tackle, might be a guard, might be a Tiger. Whatever. I'll take. I'll take either of those. We just need good players. T. Higgins, signing him your linebacker. I'm taking them. Is that okay? Are you. Are you okay with him being a PAT next year? Because he's coming.
- [68:48]
Shield Capati
I don't know. I think if the Eagles make one move, they're going to try to keep him, but. Go. I'm listening. They could overpay, like you said.
- [68:53]
Bill Simmons
What's the price?
- [68:55]
Shield Capati
I think the floor is probably around 14 million. And if a team wants to blow them away with a contract, it's going to be up around 18 million.
- [69:01]
Bill Simmons
I would say, good, come to New England and then. And then I'm best player available after that in the draft because we need players everywhere. That would be my dream scenario. Get a. Get a. Get an asset from the Raiders because the Raiders feel a little gamey and desperate to me and go all out for Higgins. All out. And then there's. If Parsons is actually in the table, I think they have to investigate that one. And if it was, you know, Even with the fourth pick, I don't really like trading top five picks for, you know, guys in their mid-20s who are making big money. I don't know if that's an awesome NFL recipe, but for Parsons, I think you have to think about it, right?
- [69:43]
Shield Capati
Yeah. I mean, Parsons, it's like that Khalil Mack deal back in the day. It might be the biggest trade since, like, the Ricky Williams trade or something. If he were actually to get dealt. When you're talking about a Hall of Fame player, premium position in his prime, pretty much 31 teams would be interested.
- [69:59]
Bill Simmons
But Garrett makes me more nervous, older, little erratic as a guy. I think there's been some weird stuff over the years. The team's not. Doesn't seem to ever be that good with him. And I just to give up like a top five pick for that and have to pay him all that money, I don't like is that really changing my destiny? I don't see it.
- [70:19]
Shield Capati
I think he's like the final piece for a team that can contend like your team, the Eagles, the commanders, a team that's like, hey, we're trying to win right now. The age is the only thing really for me. I think he's been durable, he's been productive. He's been on some bad teams, but I would say at least like a first and maybe a second that turns into a first. Something like that is. Is what I think the price is.
- [70:42]
Bill Simmons
What's Parsons worth? If the Dallas calls the Pats and says we're ready to move on Parsons, we need your fourth pick plus blank.
- [70:49]
Shield Capati
It starts at two first round picks. I think it might get to three first round picks. It might get to two first round picks and two second round picks. Like I'm not even having a conversation without two first round picks. And again, it's just bad management by the Cowboys, I think to even be considering something like that when you, when you lucked into the thing with the Cowboys. Sorry, I got to go on one last rant. Yeah, they, they get Dak Prescott in the fourth round. They get a number one wide receiver in CD Lam outside the top five. They get Micah Parsons, the best, maybe the best defensive player in football outside the top five. Like they've nailed the hardest things to nail and they can't figure out the other stuff. And that's why the Cowboys are the Cowboys. But I'm with you, Jerry Jones, still actor of the year for that performance in Landman. Did I tell you my story on that?
- [71:35]
Bill Simmons
You did win the Emmy. No, you did not.
- [71:37]
Shield Capati
We were watching. My wife actually paused the screen, looked at me to be like, he could have been one of the greatest actors of this generation.
- [71:45]
Bill Simmons
He could have been Marlon Brando. Amazing stuff. Shield When's your free agent piece coming out?
- [71:52]
Shield Capati
Now. I think it should be out Monday morning next week.
- [71:54]
Bill Simmons
Top 50 free agents is Higgins first you'd want to do it.
- [71:59]
Shield Capati
I'm going to do it based on who's going to be the most expensive to least expensive. That's my plan this year. So you got to take in positional value and maybe a quarterback. We just talked about to differentiate the ringers. Content might be first on my list.
- [72:13]
Bill Simmons
All right, great. Great tease. And we can listen to you on the Ringer NFL show as well. And the Philly Special, a show that I've been trying not to listen to because I like when actually I'll start listening again because I like when the Philly fans are unhappy. I don't want to hear happy Philly fans. I like Philly fans freaking out about Paul George's podcast and indeed having to have a bone taken from his hip to put in his that. That's the the affiliate content I want. Good to see you, Shield Good to see you. This episode is brought to you by Vuori. I love sports. I know you do, too. I also know that lots of you exercise. But if you're like me and my wife, the beloved sports gal, you're sick and tired of ugly, uncomfortable workout gear especially. You know, I do a lot of walking. I walk around la. I make calls. I listen to podcasts. Here are two words that will change everything. Viori Clothing. A line of activewear that is unbelievable. The best thing about Viori is you can lounge around in it, you can work out in it, you can go outside, you can go shopping down in your local wherever, and you never feel like you're either underdressed or overdressed. You're just comfortable. You can wear it. When you're training, traveling, lounging around the house, go get yourself some of the most comfortable and versatile clothing on the planet. Here's the deal. Our listeners get 20% off their first purchase at vuori.comsimmons Once again, V-U-O-R-I.comsimmons this episode is brought to you by Vrbo Private Vacation Rentals. With Vrbo, you always get the whole house so you and your fellow fans can cheer on your team in peace. What's worse than watching a game with somebody who's not rooting for the same team? You're rooting for nothing. But that's why if you book a vacation house with vrbo, you know all the people in your house. They'll be friends. They'll be family. Ideally, they'll be the ones who also root for my teams. Plan a winning vacation. Make it a vrbo.
- [74:06]
Shield Capati
Thanks.
- [74:07]
Bill Simmons
All right, my friend Dave Bernat is here. He is an executive producer of the White Lotus. And a bunch of good stuff. Jury duty. What else? Do your credentials really fast?
- [74:15]
Dave Bernat
Sure. Immaculate Sydney Sweeney movie I'm very proud of. Came out last year. Superstore.
- [74:22]
Bill Simmons
Superstore.
- [74:22]
Dave Bernat
Very successful White House plumbers. Woody Harrelson, Justin Theroux. Underappreciated series Bill Bad trip on Netflix. Eric Andre Tiffany Haddish, movie Seven Days in Hell. Andy Samberg, sports mockumentary on hbo.
- [74:39]
Bill Simmons
That was one of your first things, right? Do the quick backstory of how you got into this because you didn't start as a producer.
- [74:45]
Dave Bernat
No, I was 14, grew up in Washington, D.C. walking through a mall, come across a movie set, classic movie, first kid, Sinbad. I somehow.
- [74:58]
Bill Simmons
Was that a movie? Yeah, first kid with Sinbad. I don't know if I saw that one. Should we put that on rewatch both or no? Okay.
- [75:04]
Dave Bernat
It's Sinbad as a secret surface agent. The first kid gets kidnapped, and Sinbad rescues him. It's a great movie.
- [75:11]
Bill Simmons
Wow, that sounds great.
- [75:13]
Dave Bernat
Great movie. And I smooth talk my way past the pas. And I met Sinbad, met the director. Like, oh, sit in these chairs. I sat in the director chairs, and I'm like, this is what I want to do when I grow up. So I started in the mailroom at UTA and kind of hustled and delivered.
- [75:30]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I forgot this. You're a mailroom guy.
- [75:32]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. I was very obsessed with starting at the bottom. I'm like, what's the lowest level I can start at?
- [75:40]
Bill Simmons
And so I. Bronnie James is like that.
- [75:43]
Dave Bernat
I always think of myself as. I'm the Bronny James of producers. Is really. That's how I view myself. And I started off in the mailroom, and that's where I read my first Bill Simmons column. I think I had a friend of mine at UTA who was in the mailroom with me who kept telling people that he had signed you. Ryan Hayden at uta. And we were like, wow, you signed Bill Simmons. We were like, 23.
- [76:05]
Bill Simmons
That true?
- [76:05]
Dave Bernat
Because I was a huge Paradise Hotel fan.
- [76:08]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [76:08]
Dave Bernat
And you would write about Paradise Hotel and the Celtics, obviously, in sports. And I was obsessed with your columns. And I met Mike White when I worked at UTA. And that was 20 years ago, and so we've been working together ever since. And Mike and I had a company together. At one point, he came to me and he's like, I'm wasting your energy. You're way too ambitious for me. Go start your own company. You can always work with me, but you're too ambitious for me. So I started my own company. And.
- [76:36]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, so you went from UTA mailroom, worked your way up a little bit, but then eventually landed with Mike White, and you opened a copy with him.
- [76:43]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, I was his assistant. And this is right around when Funnier Diet started and all these digital websites.
- [76:49]
Bill Simmons
Oh, great times. Yeah. Early 2010s.
- [76:51]
Dave Bernat
Yes. And I Started producing digital shorts. And I would do. I did a lot of the first funnier diet videos. I did this because I was obsessed with the Hills. Mike and I were both obsessed with.
- [77:00]
Bill Simmons
The Hills, who wasn't one of the.
- [77:01]
Dave Bernat
Best shows ever made, honestly. And we did a spoof of the Hills with James Franco and Mila Kunis. And that's the first thing I ever produced, was basically, I sat in an office and I transcribed two Audrina Justin Bobby scenes.
- [77:15]
Bill Simmons
Wow.
- [77:16]
Dave Bernat
James Franco played Justin Bobby.
- [77:18]
Bill Simmons
I remember this, actually.
- [77:20]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, that's the first thing I ever produced. And I drove around West Hollywood looking for a bar to let us shoot at it. And not Delilah's. It was a bar called. I can't remember the name Bar. It was a bar on Santa Monica Boulevard, and they let me shoot there for free. And everyone showed up, and that was the first thing I produced. And then I was just hustling. I was always really ambitious as an assistant. And at one point, Mike came to me as his assistant. He goes, I just got a show picked up at HBO called Enlightened, the pilot. And he's like, do you want to produce it? And I was his assistant. I was like, yeah, Laura Dern. Laura Dern. I was like, 27, 28. And I would show up to these rooms, Mike Lombardo and. And Sue Nagel and Laura Dern. And I didn't realize how young I was at the time. I just was like, yeah, I deserve to be here for whatever reason. And they were probably looking at me like, who's this kid that's in the room? And I produced the show. And, yeah, I was the only producer.
- [78:14]
Bill Simmons
And that's how it got going.
- [78:15]
Dave Bernat
That's how it got going.
- [78:16]
Bill Simmons
So what are the tricks? Before we talk to the history of White Lotus, which is fascinating, what are the tricks you learn with producing a TV show that the common person wouldn't understand? Because people just see producer. It's a name that gets thrown around when you live in LA and you're like, what do you do? I'm a producer. And people are like, oh. And they don't really know what that means or what you do.
- [78:35]
Dave Bernat
It's embarrassing how many people say, it really is embarrassing. But I play basketball. My high school basketball coach, Mike Hibbs in dc, who coach at the Matha, one of the most famous high school basketball programs in the country. So I was the glue guy. I was the guy taking charge. I was a Kurt Rambis of my team. And that's how I view producing really. I'm the glue guy. We're having trouble closing the production designers deal. I will step in and close the deal. Casting locations, deal with the network, deal with notes, deal with release date, deal with marketing. I think the best producers know where there's kind of an issue and they step in and they kind of take over an issue or prevent issues from coming. But on a day to day level, I can't tell you what my day will be. Just things will present themselves. And again, I think the best producers can kind of put their ego aside and step in and handle any situation.
- [79:30]
Bill Simmons
So you're glue guy, problem solver. So it's like a little more important than Finney Smith.
- [79:38]
Dave Bernat
Yeah.
- [79:39]
Bill Simmons
Almost like Andre Guadalupe. Mid 2010s warriors range.
- [79:42]
Dave Bernat
I will take that. Yeah. But I like to think of myself more like an Austin Reed Reeves guy if I need to. Jury Duty, for example, was an idea that I originated with another producer, Todd Schulman. And we were kind of figuring out how could we. Todd worked with Sasha and I worked with Eric. Andre did Bad Trip. And we're like, how can we take what we did and put that in tv? And we came up with this idea of Jury Duty. We hired the writers and kind of originated it and was really the engine creatively. And then on something like White Lotus, Mike White is a genius. That's Mike White's creative vision. And my role in that is really kind of to be there by his side and do whatever Mike needs me to do. So I like to think I can do both things. I can originate things creatively like Jury Duty or White House Plumbers is something I originated. Or if it's something like Superstore or White Lotus, I can step in with a creator and kind of help them get their vision made and. And hopefully make it as good as it can be.
- [80:41]
Bill Simmons
And what's the right number of projects to have going at the same time? Because this is part of the problem is if you start doing well, then you start grabbing and all of a sudden you're doing 10 things and you're not doing any of them well.
- [80:51]
Dave Bernat
I have trouble saying no. I have trouble with boundaries, but that's a good question. I haven't found the answer to that yet. But the problem with our business is you never know what's going to get made, what's not going to get made, and why it gets made. And that's kind of part of the White Lotus story, which I'll get into. But. So I maybe have too many projects. But again, you just never know what's Going to actually come to fruition. And producers only get paid in success. So you have to have a lot going to make a living.
- [81:22]
Bill Simmons
The timeline of it is always so fascinating to me when people get a deal done. It's crazy just getting the deal done. You have to have the meetings. You have to talk people into it when you do it. How many months is that? That's four to six.
- [81:34]
Dave Bernat
Just closed the deal this morning. That took eight months.
- [81:37]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [81:38]
Dave Bernat
And why it took eight months? It could have taken two weeks if people just got on the phone and go, here are the issues. That's eight months.
- [81:44]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [81:45]
Dave Bernat
Couldn't tell you why. Eight months.
- [81:46]
Bill Simmons
Best case scenario, four months. Probably somewhere four to eight months. Maybe even like a year.
- [81:51]
Dave Bernat
Well, I wouldn't be against the White Lotus story. That actually proves it could be a week. It could be a week.
- [81:56]
Bill Simmons
But that's where the case where HBO loves creators. They love Mike. He had an idea and they're like, done. Go do it. Let's go. If there's a little bit of pressure, that's an anomaly.
- [82:04]
Dave Bernat
Yes, it is an anomaly. It usually takes four to eight months to get a deal done for whatever reason.
- [82:11]
Bill Simmons
So you get the deal done. So let's say four to eight. Now you gotta start writing outlines, scripts. That could be like, another year.
- [82:19]
Dave Bernat
Could be another year. Then the studio network will sit on it. When we turned Mike turned in lights in on a Friday, that's the first show I produced. They greenlit it on a Monday, and I was like, oh, this business is super easy.
- [82:32]
Bill Simmons
This is like when the rookie wins the super bowl title in the first year and thinks they're going to be back every year.
- [82:38]
Dave Bernat
Exactly. Yeah. And I'm like, oh, this is easy. And that is the anomaly. It usually can take a month, two months, three months for a studio network to read something, do the internal economics.
- [82:51]
Bill Simmons
Budget it, and then go on vacation. We got to push this to January because Bob's away.
- [82:59]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, June, July. Where? It's June. July. For whatever reasons, when kids are, you know, out of school vacation, it's August. August is Toronto. There's a bunch of stuff in August.
- [83:08]
Bill Simmons
The meeting gets canceled. Oh, I thought we were meeting Wednesday. We got to push it. When's your next availability? I can't do it. And then that's 10 more days.
- [83:14]
Shield Capati
Right.
- [83:14]
Dave Bernat
September is Cannes. Whatever. Like there's something, you know, whatever. South by whatever it is. So then it's October. So things take so much longer than you think it's going to take.
- [83:23]
Bill Simmons
It's the most incompetent system I've ever seen, the way. The way it's done and how hard it is just to get balls going. But then when you actually get going, now you're in the outline process, then they have to approve that. Then you're in, like, all right, now it's like the giant advanced outline. They have to prove that. Then it's like the first possible pilot script. And that goes. And this could be like, another year and a half, right?
- [83:45]
Dave Bernat
100%. And then. And then you. At some point, you go, wait, what are we making? Why are we making this? And you kind of. You hope after a year and a half, you're still excited about the idea you sold, and the idea still makes sense and are still relevant or still viable. Because that's part of the problem. Culture shifts. Things happen. Things that were interesting a year and a half ago aren't interesting anymore. White House Plumbers was an idea. My dad's from Hungary. He's an immigrant. He ended up in D.C. a doctor. He would call me with this idea for. I'm not exaggerating. Five years, he called me, and I would go to Whole Foods on Santa Monica, and I'd fill up my food after work, and he just would pitch me this idea. I put him on mute. I wouldn't listen. And finally, to get him to shut up, I'm like, okay, I'll come to dc. I'll meet this guy who has some interesting story. Because everyone has an interesting story, right? So I was on my way to Montreal to shoot something else. I literally land. I left the airport. I gave myself, like, two hours when I met this guy, and he tells me the story of the White House Plumbers. And this is probably 2016. And I leave the hospital. The guy was in the hospital. And I was like, this is an incredible story, right? My dad was right. I fly to Montreal. I think about it for a year. I finally started meeting with writers.
- [84:57]
Bill Simmons
So do you think about it, like, what's it like as a movie? What's it like as a scripted. You're trying to figure out the best model for it.
- [85:03]
Dave Bernat
And it's funny. It actually comes back to White Lotus Season three, which is. I'm on a flight. I see this movie, Death of Stalin, which is an incredible movie. Armando Iannucci. And I'm like, oh, my God, this is a. Because the story of the White House plumbers and Nixon Watergate is a comedy. It's a tragic comedy. And so I'm like, oh, this would be so funny in this tone. And Then I saw Jason Isaacs, and I was like, jason Isaacs is brilliant. And that comes back later in White Lotus.
- [85:27]
Bill Simmons
But Jerry West.
- [85:29]
Dave Bernat
Jason Isaacs, Yeah.
- [85:30]
Bill Simmons
No. Didn't he play Jerry West?
- [85:32]
Dave Bernat
No.
- [85:32]
Bill Simmons
Who played? Oh, that was Jason Clark. Jason Clark, Yeah. Got my Jason screwed up.
- [85:38]
Dave Bernat
But this is 2016, right? So then I. White House Plumbers, I pitch it to writers. We pitch it to Woody Harrelson, signs on. Pitch it to Justin Theroux, signs on, we sell it 20.
- [85:48]
Bill Simmons
Do you feel like it's like a party where when the first star comes on, then it just becomes like dominoes?
- [85:53]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, yeah. Cause you're like, once you get the first person on, it's easier to get the second. You're like, oh, yeah, Woody's coming to this party. Like, it's way.
- [85:59]
Bill Simmons
That's what happened with us with 30 for 30. We got Barry Levinson, and he vetted the whole. Once we had him, it made the next, like, five people easy. But we had to get him to get it going.
- [86:09]
Dave Bernat
By the way, I think I'm like 0 for 70 with my 30 for 30 pitches at some point, just so just.
- [86:15]
Bill Simmons
I don't control it anymore.
- [86:17]
Dave Bernat
So this is 2019. We sell to HBO. They're like, we're making this Covid happens. It's pushed 2021, 2022. And then all of a sudden, an idea that has never been made in 40 years. I get a call, oh, you know this Julia Roberts, Sean Penn project called Gaslit that's getting shot the exact same time I'm shooting White House Plumbers, which is the exact same story. And so this idea I've been thinking about for six years, which has never existed, all of a sudden, my show comes out two months after the exact same show, which is something I can't control. So then at that point, it's like, oh, we're the second Watergate show about G. Gordon Leedy and Howard Hunt. And that's just the difficulty of producing. It's like, that's something that's so out of my control. You put all this energy into something, and then by the time my show comes out, it's kind of an afterthought. We've already seen that show, saw it on Stars.
- [87:12]
Bill Simmons
What's your best thing that you had? That fell apart, but it still haunts you at night, the same way the 1985 finals haunts me for the Celtics.
- [87:20]
Dave Bernat
That's a great question.
- [87:22]
Bill Simmons
You don't have to say what the project exactly was, but was there one that you're just like, the one that got away?
- [87:27]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. Oh, yeah. I have several that kind of slipped through my fingers. And you kind of think about those for years. And I have probably two of those that I'm like, if I just moved a little quicker or just put a little bit more energy into this or, you know. Yeah. But I.
- [87:43]
Bill Simmons
Do they. Do they die or do they just go in a coma?
- [87:46]
Dave Bernat
What happens is people get busy, and if you miss a window with people, then they're off doing other things. And I had a show that had three elements that then went off to become massive stars, but I had them before their thing, and it was in the world of music, which is a world I love and been trying to figure out a show or a movie in. And it just was about to come together and someone hesitated and I didn't push. And then it. Then all three of those elements have gone off to become big stars. You can't get the band back together.
- [88:19]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [88:20]
Dave Bernat
It's just too hard.
- [88:21]
Bill Simmons
It's like having the OKC Thunder in 2010, but when they're on rookie contracts.
- [88:26]
Dave Bernat
That's it. Yeah. Literally. It's exactly it. And I just hesitated and made. I probably put my energy towards the wrong thing, and then it went away.
- [88:35]
Bill Simmons
Is there a moment when you know things are going well because people are now approaching with projects in a way? Like, can you feel that happening in real time?
- [88:42]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, we have a mutual friend.
- [88:44]
Bill Simmons
I'm not going to name them.
- [88:45]
Dave Bernat
When you start getting certain invites to things, you're like, things must be going well, so you're getting those invites, right? Yeah. But, yeah, I think it's a momentum business. I think people love to chase momentum. And as you kind of start to build momentum, it becomes slightly easier, but not.
- [89:03]
Bill Simmons
It's never totally easy.
- [89:04]
Dave Bernat
It's never totally easy. It's always hard because you always have to have the right idea at the right time, the right configuration of elements. And that momentum makes it easier to get your calls returned or get people attached. But it always comes down to the writer. It always comes back to that. But. Yeah, but yes.
- [89:23]
Bill Simmons
So the ways it can go wrong, because we see this when I do the rewatchables research, and it's always so interesting with the casting what ifs, or this movie fell through and then they revitalized it years later. The same idea, but it's with totally different people, different director. The ways that can go wrong, like your music scenario where you have the people. You have the right people in your head, but then too much time passes and you lose them. And you just can't find the next batch of people. Or you have it built around a star, there's a delay in the production, something bad happens, you lose the star. Now the studio doesn't want to make it. And then the other one, that's the famous one is the person who backed it on the studio side or the Hollywood side, they switched jobs or they got fired. And now the new guy or new lady comes in and it's like, well, that wasn't my project. I don't want to do this.
- [90:12]
Dave Bernat
I'm going through that right now. I had a project that we had like nine bidders on, sold it to a studio movie and now to Paramount, and now we're going through. Could you have predicted two? No. This is probably three years ago now that the entire company would be turned over and going through this merger. And so. But yeah, I mean, that's really it. Or the star of your movie is going through a divorce and you don't. There's so many elements that kind of come in to making things on set and they're not focused. And you're in production, you have the perfect script, the perfect director, but the star is distracted, so they're not giving them the right performance. But I learned my lesson. So I did this movie with Sydney Sweeney immaculate. And basically Euphoria was starting. This is 2023. And they're like, euphoria's starting February 19th. And you have a moment, you're like, okay, we have a six week window with Sidney. The script's not ready. Do we try to rush it into production or do we wait till after Euphoria? And I'm like, I'm not waiting because after Euphoria, who knows? And by the way, so we rush into production and I'm very proud of the movie. I think the movie turned out great. But then Euphoria doesn't get shot for two more years. So I was talking about this with Sydney yesterday. I'm like, we now they're finally back into production two years later. But we rushed into this thing and she killed herself. She worked six to eight weeks, then she goes to do the movie with Glen Powell, works six day weeks to get it in before Euphoria. And then Euphoria doesn't happen for two years. But I learned my lesson. I'm never going to just wait. You have to. When it's burned in the hand, you got to take it.
- [91:44]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Because you also see this stuff where, like what happened with Levinson on that show where he starts to do The Idol. Then the idol becomes this whole thing that ties up and then that Entourage. I'm not Entourage. Euphoric cast. They're on hold. They lose the momentum from the series. But that also happens with all these other projects, too, where you think, oh, we're going to start as soon as they're wrapped up with season four. And then it's like, oh, no, they're actually not going to be wrapped up. You have a whole set and a whole system in place that now is on hold. And then you have to decide whether you want to punt on the actor or not.
- [92:18]
Dave Bernat
Right, Exactly. Do you replace them or. And I think it's an imperfect science. Hollywood on the rewatchables. You're watching these movies, and it's funny. People are like, how do they make. It's so obviously bad? Or how do they make such a bad movie? And I think having made things that aren't as good as they probably should be. I think there's a great quote from Project Runway, and I always think about it. It's from the first couple seasons where Tim Gunn is like, when you're in the monkey house for too long, you stop smelling the shit. And sometimes you're just, like. You're just getting in it. And I think about it all the time, and you're in it, and you're so deep inside of it, you're not seeing what feels obvious from the outside. And so you can watch a movie 10 years later and go, why didn't they realize the third act didn't work? Or, this was such bad casting. But sometimes you're so deep inside of it, you stop seeing the shit.
- [93:14]
Bill Simmons
Right?
- [93:14]
Dave Bernat
And that's. And that's why it's a tough business.
- [93:16]
Bill Simmons
One of the things that I'm always obsessed about, especially we've talked about on the podcast a bunch, is why there's so many cooks in the kitchen with these projects. When. Especially when you're talking tv, in the entire history of TV and what's worked and what's not worked, it's usually like one vision. It's like a couple executives trusting the person who had the vision, and everybody kind of clearing out and letting them do their thing. And that's been most of the great shows we've ever had. And I don't understand why Hollywood just doesn't obey this.
- [93:48]
Dave Bernat
Because Mike White and I talk about all the time. There's three producers on White Lotus. There's Mike, there's me, and there's Mark Kamine, who's our line producer, and what happens is the star of the show has a manager. So that manager is a producer. The star is a producer. It's based on a piece of ip. That IP has a producer attached. The writer of that piece of IP is attached. They bring it to a non writing producer who has a deal at X network or studio. There's two people that work at that company. So all of a sudden you're on notes calls with seven people when the.
- [94:19]
Bill Simmons
Zoom is so big you can't fit everyone on your phone. Something has probably gone wrong. Yes.
- [94:23]
Dave Bernat
And that's probably not going to turn out well. Then you have seven people who have seven ideas, who have seven interpretations of what good is, and all of a sudden you have a, a writer who's trying to service seven different people. It's never going to end up well. In all the things I've done that have been successful, all have one clear vision and you're all in service of that clear vision. I think when there's too many egos and too many people weighing in, it just weighs everything down.
- [94:48]
Bill Simmons
We see that on the documentary side too. With a lot of the stuff I've been involved with, the more people weighing in and one of the things I try to do as a producer of those, and it doesn't always work, is you try to funnel the notes through one person so at least they only hear from one voice. But like when this Celtics thing I just did, which I'm really proud of, I think it turned out great. But they're, you know, we had the Celtics, it's their ip, they have notes, you have the NBA, they're going to weigh in with their notes. And then we had our production side and it's like if they, if you can pass a tipping point, especially if somebody's just in the abyss with whatever they're working on and they're just hearing all these different things and notes are conflicting, it can really fuck them up. It seems like every showrunner, director, whatever, you're going to hit this dark place with what you're working on and you need at least one person to be like, I got you, I got you.
- [95:42]
Dave Bernat
And that's kind of my role with Mike on White Lotus. But also that's a role that I try to. It's a role I try to service in every production I do, which is trying to kind of push on bad notes and trying to help creators, writers, directors, filter opinions. What do I think in my own taste, what do I think is a good idea? What do I think is a bad idea? And I think that's really.
- [96:03]
Bill Simmons
And picking your battles, right?
- [96:05]
Dave Bernat
Picking your battles.
- [96:06]
Bill Simmons
Maybe give them this one because it's not worth fighting about. Because I really need to win this one later 1000%.
- [96:11]
Dave Bernat
And what is a marginal move? What are. Because it's all taste, right? Producing is all taste. All comes down to opinion. And what's a lateral move that you can give to a network or studio or whomever to then buy back later on?
- [96:27]
Bill Simmons
Right?
- [96:28]
Dave Bernat
We have a great. We have a great story from Enlightened where the network was hammering us on this one episode, and there was a piece of dialogue that Mike just loved. It was so lateral. Whether it was in or not didn't really matter. For some reason, HBO was hammering us, and we sent them back a cut with a taken out to make them feel good about it. But then we were like, we're going to deliver the line in. So we pretended that we had taken it out. We deliver it with the line in. And then they didn't notice, of course, because they're probably doing eight different things. They're giving notes. And then we go to the premiere, and the network, HBO was like, we should premiere that episode. And it was the episode that we had switched out the dialogue. So we're like, holy shit, they're going to notice in the premiere. And so we play, and Mike and I are sitting next to. All the HBO executives had given us those notes, and they never noticed. They didn't remember. And then we sent them all T shirts after the premiere with the line of dialogue, by the way. They were like, what does that mean? They had no. They have no memory of it. But that's a good example. It's like you're getting these notes from people and it's a Monday morning for them, Tuesday morning. They probably forgot what they said. And ultimately, you got to trust your creative instincts. And by that episode, one of our best episodes we ever did, and that line that we took out, I swear is so often quoted from Enlightened, Wow.
- [97:54]
Bill Simmons
Well, part of the problem is people feel like sometimes they just have to give notes always. Or else it doesn't look like they gave a shit or watched it or did their job or cared.
- [98:04]
Dave Bernat
Yeah.
- [98:05]
Bill Simmons
So here's six extra notes just because I want to make sure my email's long enough.
- [98:10]
Dave Bernat
Or you have 19 people on the zoom. Right. And every person is like, if I don't say something, I feel like I'm a loser. So then everyone has to weigh in with something that is like, yeah, just to weigh in. And I'VE been in those positions where you're on these zooms and you don't really have anything to add, but you feel like you have to. Otherwise you look like a total loser.
- [98:28]
Bill Simmons
Right?
- [98:28]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, it's a weird process.
- [98:31]
Bill Simmons
One of the best, the best behind the scenes experience I had was when we did the Andre the Giant doc because they just trusted us and it was, you know, Jason was the director who's great, I don't know if you met him, but we just kind of figured out the framework and it just kind of went smoothly. And it was one of those things where afterwards I was like, man, I wish that's just how it went. It's just like a couple people figuring out everyone else trusts those people. And there you go. And we'll talk about how unique White Lotus is, but we'll take a quick break and then we'll talk about this is a unicorn type of show. Anyway, break this episode is brought to you by Nissan. If you're planning on an adventurous 2025, you're going to need a car that can keep up with you and conquer anything in your path. The Nissan Armada Pro 4X is that car with a twin turbo V6 engine ready to propel your adventures. Up to 8,500 pounds of towing capacity to haul all your favorite toys and space for eight passengers. This unshakable fortress will chew up and spit out anything you throw at it. Learn more at the all new 2025 Nissan Armada at nissanusa.com Towing capacity varies by configuration. See Nissan Towing Guide and Owner's Manual for additional information. Always Secure Cargo this episode is brought to you by State Farm. State Farm helps you score an affordable price when you choose to bundle home and auto insurance with the Personal Price Point plan. Bundling home and auto, that's a pro move. Just another way you can save on your insurance needs. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. Okay, so White Lotus, which you were involved with intimately from the very beginning. The perfect kind of TV show from a production standpoint. In a lot of ways you're not relying on a star because you can change the cast whenever you want. You have one person writing the entire show almost as an eight hour movie. You have a network that completely trusts that person and you kind of have a blank canvas to Be like, all right, we have this hotel. Here's the premise. We're going to dive into this. We can change locations every year. It's a show that I'm sure you probably thought was going to be a one year show. And now you can potentially do eight or nine seasons of it and you guys are controlling it and they trust you. This is impossible. It never works out this way. So why does it ever work out this way?
- [101:09]
Dave Bernat
The reality is White Lotus happened because of a confluence of events that could never be replicated. And I give HBO immense credit for trusting Mike. And I mean, it's funny, it kind of feels like one of those bands and you're like, oh, you're a one hit wonder, like overnight success and you've been grinding for 15 years to make it.
- [101:30]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [101:30]
Dave Bernat
And so Mike first pitched me a version of white lotus. Probably 2008, we were in Spain together. 2008, we were walking in Tarifa, Spain, I'll never forget it. And he pitches me. We're just walking and we were there. Paramount, I don't know. Paramount was paying Mike to write School of Rock too. And Mike was like, I don't want to. And I was working. I was Mike's assistant. He's like, I don't want to be in la. Why don't we just go to Spain? I'll write it, you can do whatever you want and I'll just sit and write and you can live in Spain. I'm like, I'm single, I'm in my 20s. Sounds amazing. So we went off to Spain, we were just walking one day and he pitches him this idea about a hotel show. Upstairs, downstairs hotel show. And the central relationship is a couple that's on a honeymoon and one is rich, one is marrying into money. And the show kind of starts with the groom returning and the bride is not there and you don't know what's happened. And I'm like, that's incredible.
- [102:28]
Bill Simmons
Wow. So that's 2008.
- [102:31]
Dave Bernat
Yeah.
- [102:31]
Bill Simmons
Because the whole premise of we're starting this show but something weird happened, you're going to eventually discover what happened. That's like a very late 2010s premise.
- [102:40]
Dave Bernat
And so we go in, and then it's also an anthology series. So we go into hbo, we pitch the idea, and the feedback was, anthology series are not a thing. It'll never be a thing. Not interested.
- [102:51]
Bill Simmons
I wonder why. So why would they say that?
- [102:54]
Dave Bernat
Because at that point it really hadn't been the thing.
- [102:56]
Bill Simmons
It's like they're talking about the I'm trying to think some of the stuff they did, I guess this is before True Detective. Hitchhiker.
- [103:02]
Dave Bernat
This is before True Detective. So this True Detective was really the thing that I think broke open. Anthology series, right.
- [103:07]
Bill Simmons
So that's 2013 range.
- [103:08]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. And I get from their perspective, it's like you're going to start a show. The hardest thing as a pilot, right. Like getting people engaged and interested in characters, and then to replicate that every season is really hard and get people re engaged. It's almost impossible.
- [103:22]
Bill Simmons
But the funny thing is the model you laid out earlier, where you then don't have to rely on of fancy famous cast member. It's actually like a better model.
- [103:30]
Dave Bernat
It's incredible. Well, the star of White Lotus is Mike White. He's a star. And so HBO passes and it's an idea just kind of sitting out there. One of the executives at HBO who heard it then goes to Amazon and kind of goes, oh, what was that honeymoon idea? Blah, blah, blah. Why don't we try and do that here? So Mike goes, great. We go. We talk to them about this honeymoon show. And at that point, it was a show about this couple that's traveling from. And I think Mike was kind of inspired. He had gone on a trip and Phil Jackson was actually. It was actually Phil Jackson who inspired it.
- [103:58]
Bill Simmons
The Zen master.
- [103:59]
Dave Bernat
Yes. Mike is not a sports guy. I can't remember which country he was in. But he went from this great hotel to that great hotel to another great hotel within the same country. And Phil Jackson was on the same. He was like, oh, we must have the same travel agent who had booked us into the same exact hotels. So Mike kept seeing him at every hotel. So he was like, okay, this honeymoon couple basically is going to travel to different hotels and they're going to see the same couples or same people because they're the same travel agent. So we go, and Mike is in Sri Lanka. He's working on this honeymoon show when everyone at Amazon gets fired. And then they replace Roy Price, who was running Amazon at the time, with another executive. And that executive just didn't get the show. The show dies.
- [104:46]
Bill Simmons
So you're calling it the Honeymoon show. And the new guy's like, the honeymoon. What the fuck is this? And he's out, gone.
- [104:51]
Dave Bernat
So now's our second strike, right? So that's 2015, 2016.
- [104:56]
Bill Simmons
Oh, my God.
- [104:57]
Dave Bernat
2019 comes. We had met Jennifer Coolidge in 2006 doing a movie called Gentlemen Broncos. Great movie. Underappreciated Fox Searchlight movie with Jared Hess and Mike and I, I'll never forget it. We go in. We didn't know Jennifer at the time. We go in to have dinner, and we see Jennifer at the same restaurant. And she's literally sitting at this restaurant, and she has her menu this close to her face. She's staring at the menu, and we're looking at her across the restaurant, and we're like, who is this person? And Jennifer has terrible eyesight. And the only way she could read the menu is. I'm not joking. Literally, it's this close to her face, and she's just shamelessly reading the menu like this. And we just kind of fell in love with her, and we became great friends, the three of us. And Mike was always inspired about writing a show for her. So 2019 comes, and Mike has this idea for a show called Saint Patsy. And he writes four episodes of the show. And we go out in 2019, we pitch this show called Saint Patsy, which was about Jennifer Coolidge playing a version of Tonya McQuad, version of a celebrity actress who's going to accept an award in Sri Lanka. And there's a murder mystery. Everyone passes. Everyone passes. And we're basically told, Jennifer's not a TV star, whatever it is. So now we have the honeymoon show Mike was thinking about. We have the couple murder mystery show. We have Jennifer in Sri Lanka. So those three elements we have kind of simmering.
- [106:22]
Bill Simmons
And Mike is being pigeonholed now as incredibly creative guy but can't have a giant show.
- [106:27]
Dave Bernat
Exactly.
- [106:28]
Bill Simmons
He's not like a big taste guy. He's like a. Like a small, critics love him type of guy.
- [106:32]
Dave Bernat
Exactly. Classic. He's an underdog, really. And everyone looked at him like, oh, he's brilliant, but not commercial. And Mike and I had been working together at this point for 15 years. We'd made a lot of amazing stuff together, but nothing had really broken through yet. 2020 comes. Mike writes this great script that was set in Sweden. That was a road trip comedy with him and Aubrey Plaza that Mike was gonna star in with Aubrey.
- [106:57]
Bill Simmons
Wow.
- [106:58]
Dave Bernat
And we get the financing. Covid happens. Financing falls apart. It's July of 2020. Mike is despondent. He goes on a road trip by himself. I go on a road trip to Colorado, and HBO calls out of the Blue. It's July of 2020, and they go, we don't have any programming. Is there anything that is Covid.
- [107:21]
Bill Simmons
Covid, yeah. Covid, by the way. Yeah.
- [107:22]
Dave Bernat
Is there anything you can do in a Covid bubble that you can do quickly, cheaply, that can be on the air in 2021. It was over email. And Mike goes, yeah, I got it. And they go, great. It's greenlit, just like that. And Mike literally didn't know what it was, but he had been thinking about these three different shows over the last 15 years, and he combined all those elements, and that became white lotus. And we basically had one.
- [107:48]
Bill Simmons
So it's honeymoon show. Jennifer Coolidge.
- [107:50]
Dave Bernat
And it's a honeymoon show. It's a show that was in Sri Lanka that we.
- [107:53]
Bill Simmons
Some location.
- [107:54]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. And I'll never forget, it was probably August of 2020. We get on a phone call with HBO, and they're like, you have 30 days to make this. Good luck. And Mike's like, I'm not going at this point. Also, we had two weeks to find a location. What people don't know is originally we were going to do it in Australia. And basically we found a hotel in Australia, but we couldn't get our Covid vaccines, vaccinations, visas in time. So we basically were like. We pivoted to Hawaii because it was the one place that we could get in. And God bless four seasons Maui. It's the only hotel in the world that said, yeah, come shoot this during COVID Good career move by the four.
- [108:32]
Bill Simmons
Seasons, by the way.
- [108:33]
Dave Bernat
Great career move. And Mike was like, I'm not going to Hawaii. I'm shooting this in 30 days. There's no way I'm doing a season in 30 days. And I said to him, I go, this is what we're going to do. I've never said this. And natrio doesn't know this. I go, we're going to show up in Hawaii. We're going to get them pregnant, as they say in hollywood. We're going to get them invested. They're going to spend enough money that we're going to go, actually, we need another 15 million to make the show. And he said to me, he goes, if you're wrong about this, I'll kill you. This is what he said to me. I will kill you.
- [109:00]
Bill Simmons
That's going to be season two.
- [109:01]
Dave Bernat
Exactly. And so we went to Hawaii. Mike had one script, and he didn't even know what the ending was. Mike wrote the scripts without knowing where it was going because we got there in September of 2020. We had to shoot by the end of October. We had basically six weeks for Mike to write the season, cast, the season, hire crew, scout it, and shoot it, because we had to be done by Christmas to get it on the air. 2021. And we arrived And Mike just started writing. We were in a 14 day quarantine. And Mike wrote almost the entire season in those 14 days.
- [109:31]
Bill Simmons
Wow. So he's like Bradley Cooper and Limitless, just cranking it up.
- [109:34]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, basically it just kind of poured out of him. But it was really. He had been thinking about the show for 15 years. It had been really those elements of things he thought about. And I remember we got to a point where we had 30 days to shoot it. We needed 48 days. And I had to call HBO and go, hey, we're 18 days over budget. It's a lot of money. And to their credit, they go, we'll give it to you. Just go and do it.
- [109:57]
Bill Simmons
Well, at that point they probably had two things going because nobody could film anything.
- [110:01]
Dave Bernat
And. And as I had told you, strategically, they had spent enough money where I knew it was a sunk cost of like, okay, we got to give them this money to get something out of it. And I think that was the hardest production I've ever been through. Because in Hawaii at that point, if you got Covid, you go into a hotel room for 14 days. So during that production, we had so many people get Covid in. That was also a point where if you were close to that person, you go get Covid. So we had actors getting Covid that would go away for 14 days and we would have to re juggle the schedule. We would have to shoot seven days in a. We had to do everything humanly possible. And another thing people don't know is we actually never finished. It was two days before we wrapped. And I was like, okay, we're going to make it through. I get a phone call from HBO that someone has tested positive for Covid. And it was Jennifer Coolidge's assistant who was basically in the room with her every single day. And we were out shooting that famous boat scene where Jennifer's dumping the ashes, she's crying. And I had to call the boat. I wasn't on the boat. I had to call them the AD and go, Jennifer, basically, it's like a close contact. You need to come back. And Jennifer's going to go into a hotel room for 14 days and we're going to have to shut down right before Christmas. And they turned the boats around. And I'll never forget Jennifer's face coming off the boat. It was heartbreaking because she knew she was gonna have to miss Christmas and New Year's and basically be stuck in a hotel room. And we shut down and never finished. And we basically. Which was a gift because Then Mike goes and edits the show. And we eventually found a five day window in February the next year to bring everyone back. And at that point too, we knew what we were kind of missing. We did some reshoots. Oh, and it was like a gift. Honestly, at that point, it was the worst thing that could happen. Ended up being a gift. We got everyone back somehow and the rest is history.
- [111:50]
Bill Simmons
You skipped over the casting piece of this when you're doing the thing that fast. So obviously the show has really good casting, but who does that come from? Is it a team thing or did you hire an awesome casting person? Or is it just people you and Mike like?
- [112:04]
Dave Bernat
Well, Meredith Tucker, who's our casting director. Mike and Meredith went to Wesleyan together, so they're old friends. She's worked, she's amazing. And we have a great. We worked. We've all worked together now for a long time. But it was so quick that we had to cast people we know. And for me, Sydney Sweeney, I met her in 2019 and I had only seen her in Euphoria, and it's a really specific character. And she comes in and she actually pitches me a TV show that I passed on, which I regret. And I met her in this meeting and I was like, holy shit. She's so different from her character. You meet her in person. And I think people don't understand how good of an actress she is because if you meet her in person, you go, every character she's playing is so different from who she is. And so we were casting a part and it was against type, right? Because at that point she'd only played this character in Euphoria who was very dramatic, not funny. I meet her in this meeting, she's so bubbly, she's so personable, she's so funny in person. And I'm like, she would be so smart in that role because it's unexpected. And so that's kind of how that happened. Connie Britton was someone that we were friends with and Mike knew for a long time. Mike had worked with her before. We knew she'd be perfect. Steve Zahn was Mike's brilliant idea. He kind of pulled that out of nowhere. We were having trouble casting a part and he's like, what about Steve Zahn? Brilliant. Murray Bartlett we weren't familiar with. And that's Mike's brilliance. Murray Bartlett auditioned And out of 100 people, he kind of identified Murray. He just saw it, knew it would be great. And Alex Daddario came in. The first second we saw her audition, she just Nailed it. She was amazing. Jake Lacy. Same thing, auditioned, we had to do these things really fast. Natasha Rothwell. It's actually a great example of. I'm really close with Natasha's agent and I wasn't familiar with Natasha. Shauna, her agent called me and was just hammering me, hammering me. Send me some stuff on Natasha. I was like, oh, she's brilliant. She won't audition. And we're just like, fuck it, let's just go. That was just like, we have to pull the trigger. She ended up being brilliant. And so it was really like a combination of people we knew and just.
- [114:04]
Bill Simmons
Quick decisions and you're thinking, this is a one and done, we're outta here. How did we pull this off? This is finished.
- [114:11]
Dave Bernat
Not only that, but like, we really. The budgets of White Lotus Season 1 are minuscule compared to some of their other dramas. We were also like, this could just never air. It was like such like, you know, at that point they were like, it was like a Covid experiment. They gave us a bunch of money to go shoot a show in a.
- [114:26]
Bill Simmons
Bubble, by the way. There was some awful Covid experiments. This was by far the most successful one, I think.
- [114:32]
Dave Bernat
But it really was. The show never happens if not for Covid, honestly, in the COVID bubble.
- [114:36]
Bill Simmons
Oh, thank you, Covid.
- [114:37]
Dave Bernat
Thank you, by the way. Thank you, Covid. But I think that if you had told me then, and Mike and I were talking about this the other day, if you had told me five years later, I would be in Bangkok at a marvel sized premiere and they're like, we're walking out in front of 5,000 people yelling our names. I would tell you that's impossible.
- [114:57]
Bill Simmons
So you finished the show. HBO loves it. I started hearing about it well before it came out. Like, hey, there's this show we have, it has a chance.
- [115:07]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, I knew because the show was so different, right? It's so out there and it's really just. It's a lot of conversations around a table and it's. There's not a lot of plot until episode five when that robbery happens. Nothing really happens.
- [115:22]
Bill Simmons
But there's two genius things, though. One is that you don't know where it's going and you kind of want to see. But the other thing that plays into the COVID piece, you got to go on vacation in Hawaii, which was great. You just got to go somewhere that wasn't like your house with the same family or friends that you were just staring at for the last nine months.
- [115:41]
Dave Bernat
And just being completely honest. We didn't think the murder mystery element would be a thing. And we were cutting the pilot and we got a note actually about, like. Because in the pilot episode, you introduced this idea. Jake Lacey's there talking about the dead body. And we got a note like, maybe bring that back at the end to call it back. And I remember we were talking about, like, ah, well, people aren't going to really, really care about the murder mystery. So calling it back would kind of feel it's not really about that. And so it was just like a creative thing that happened and people kind of latched onto it. And. And for me, it was really exciting because it was a way into what was ultimately a story about existential ideas and being a human and just complexity of life. And I knew I made the show. And I also haven't. I've never talked about this, but I went to show three friends of mine, and they were the first people I showed the show to. And I showed them a locked version of the pilot that had temp music. And my friends were like. And they're filmmaker friends. I trust them. And they look at me and they go, this show's not good. And they go, they're just not good. I go, what do you mean? They're like, yeah, this is not a good show. They're like, what are you going to do? And I remember I left and I was kind of disheartened, and one of my friends called me, and he's definitely going to listen to this interview. He knows who he is. And he's like, the show's really not good. It's not a good show. And I don't know. And I'm just like, I didn't really listen to him. And then the only thing that changed was the music. And that's the show we kind of locked and that aired. And I still make fun of my friends, obviously, to this day about it, but I knew the show was going to work when we would show people, agents first, agents of clients, and they would call me and they'd go, give me the next one. I need the next episode. Okay, I'll see you next time. And they're like, give me the next episode. I need the next episode. At that point, I was like, oh, there's something here that people are kind of hooking into. And we could never have predicted it would be a success. And let alone we would do three seasons and a fourth season and feel very fortunate that HBO trusted us and they just trusted in Mike. And there was no notes in the creative process because there was no time. They just said, go make it. And we went off and made something and brought it back to them. And Casey and Franny and Nora Skinner at hbo, they'd just known us for a long time, and they deserve great credit for just trusting in the creative process.
- [118:02]
Bill Simmons
I remember texting Kasey about it, like, where's season two? And he's like, mike's never doing a season two. There's no way. I was like, how do you not do a season two? Just go to a different location. He's like, yeah, we know. But Mike's. That's not how he operates. He's not gonna do it. So what changed?
- [118:17]
Dave Bernat
I think the response to the show, and I think we just had fun. And the show really comes out of Mike's passion for travel. He was on Amazing Race, the two scenes. He just loves to travel.
- [118:27]
Bill Simmons
Was he in Survivor too? He was, right?
- [118:29]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, so much of the show is Survivor.
- [118:32]
Bill Simmons
I was going to ask you about that. It does feel like Survivor and White Lotus are not even cousins. They might be siblings.
- [118:38]
Dave Bernat
Well, that's a great story. How Mike ended up on. Well, I mean, originally, Mike and I applied to CBS for Amazing Race. We were wearing matching blue velour jumpsuits. We shot a stupid video running around, running around Brentwood. I drove down to El Segundo. I dropped it in a box because Mike and I both loved the show, and I was Mike's assistant, and we had this idea of, like, it would be funny if we went on the show together. CBS called two weeks later, and they recast me. They're like, your dynamic is too Hollywood. We don't really like the dynamic. And eventually Mike ended up with his dad going on Amazing Race, but it was through that experience he ended up on Survivor because he's like, Mike is really competitive in a great way, and I think he just. He didn't win Amazing Race. And she's like, I'm going to win Survivor. But I think at the end of season one, we just had such a great experience making the show. And like I was saying before, Mike is really the star of White Lotus. And I think the anthology dynamic allows Mike to be the star and allow us not to be beholden to anyone else's schedule. And it's all on Mike in the writing. And Casey came to us, to Casey's credit, and said, I want to make anything you want to make next. And Mike said, let's do season two of White Lotus. And they greenlit it without hearing Mike's idea again.
- [119:54]
Bill Simmons
Full Scene didn't know location.
- [119:55]
Dave Bernat
They didn't know location. We didn't know location. I mean, I get asked all the time about the locations. The location process is really organic.
- [120:03]
Bill Simmons
But it's a lot easier for season two, I'm guessing.
- [120:06]
Dave Bernat
Well, yeah.
- [120:06]
Shield Capati
No.
- [120:06]
Dave Bernat
I mean, yes. Easier to find places to give us.
- [120:09]
Bill Simmons
Hotels to be like, yeah, come here.
- [120:11]
Dave Bernat
But it was still hard. It was, actually. I thought we were going to shoot in France, and we went to Italy as a courtesy to hbo because it was another country had a great rebate. Better rebate than France. We go and we basically saw these crazy heads everywhere in Sicily and Palermo. And this guy told us this story of what these heads meant, this Tessa de Moros. And they tell us a story about this guy who was having an affair, and the woman chopped his head off. And Mike kind of got inspired by this idea of doing a show about sexual jealousy. And Sicily ended up being the perfect place.
- [120:41]
Bill Simmons
That would have been a good title. Sexual Jealousy. That's a good title for a Cinemax movie.
- [120:45]
Dave Bernat
You and I sell that. But, I mean, season three is.
- [120:48]
Bill Simmons
It's like a Shannon Tweed. But now in 2025.
- [120:51]
Dave Bernat
Just go with us. But, I mean, season three was actually amazing. We were gonna shoot in Japan, and we went to Thailand as a courtesy to hbo. It's the only other country in Southeast Asia that had a rebate that was, like, film friendly. And we were in Chiang Mai in the north, and Mike got bronchitis, and he went to the hospital, and the nurses there took such great care of him, and he kind of fell in love with Thailand. And they put him on this thing called a nebulizer, and it's this really strong steroid. And he was up for two nights, and he hallucinated, and he hallucinated season three of White Lotus. And he gets in the van the next day and he pitches me what he hallucinated. And that's what we shot.
- [121:29]
Bill Simmons
What?
- [121:30]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. And we were like, we're shooting in Thailand. So by the time we left Thailand, we went to Japan, we knew we were shooting in Thailand. And Thailand itself is, like, such a witchy place.
- [121:41]
Bill Simmons
You were there for how many months?
- [121:43]
Dave Bernat
Almost a year.
- [121:44]
Bill Simmons
Jesus.
- [121:45]
Dave Bernat
But I love it.
- [121:45]
Bill Simmons
But, yeah, that was when I got to know you a little bit. And it was. You were just out of it.
- [121:49]
Dave Bernat
Yeah.
- [121:50]
Bill Simmons
How did you. You couldn't follow sports in the same way. Like, nothing.
- [121:53]
Dave Bernat
I mean, do you remember one of our first zooms? I thought my dad. I don't know if you remember this. We had, like, a 5am Zoom. Because it was the only time that worked for Oliver. The first time we ever met, and I woke up to a message that my dad was in the hospital. And I just remember this, and I get on the Zoom, and we're meeting for the first time. And, like I said, I'm a huge fan of yours, and I was so excited to meet you, so I didn't want to cancel our Zoom. And I woken up, like, three minutes before a zoom. And I get on, and I'm like. I'm, like, really shaken, and you're like, we can reschedule. Deal with your dad. My dad was okay. But, yeah, I mean, I think that was a tough year for all of us. Just, like, the time zones and being away from family. And I would.
- [122:31]
Bill Simmons
I mean, mosquitoes.
- [122:33]
Dave Bernat
And the mosquitoes were insane. We all had. Got dengue shots, and a couple people got dengue. At that point, you're like, it's a crapshoot. You know, Will you get dengue? Will you end up in the hospital? Like, I would go to work. Like, I was like, yeah, in the 1980s Lakers. Like, I would have socks up to my knees. I'd have, like.
- [122:50]
Bill Simmons
Like, I like Michael Cooper.
- [122:52]
Dave Bernat
Exactly. Honestly.
- [122:53]
Bill Simmons
So you're worried about monsoons, mosquitoes. There's always the tsunami thing, which is, you know, by the way, not. Not a theme.
- [123:00]
Dave Bernat
Always a thing. Season three, but it's coming. Yeah, tsunami's coming. But, yeah, I mean, watching sports was the hardest because I'm a diehard Lakers fan. I would be on set, and this is. This is like the buildup to the playoffs, where, like, Nuggets series. And I would. I didn't miss a Lakers game. I had vpn. I got the ticket. I watched every single Lakers game on set. Regular season, playoffs. And I would be at the monitors, and I'm a really vocal fan, so I'm there and watching the Nuggets series. Joker's hitting these fucking ridiculous shots over his head, three pointers falling out of bounds, and I'm yelling on set. Yeah, I'm not joking, literally. If you ask any actor from White Lotus Season 3 about this, I'm literally.
- [123:42]
Bill Simmons
Dave's a maniac.
- [123:43]
Dave Bernat
Oh, yeah. I'm at the monitors with my iPad, watching what's shooting, watching both at the same time, yelling uncontrollably at Jamal Murray, who I fucking hate as the Lakers kind of blow that series. They should have won that series. But, yeah, I mean, sports. I would wake up at all crazy.
- [123:58]
Bill Simmons
Hours, wouldn't miss the Lakers game and the problem solving. So it sounds like Italy was probably the easiest of the three seasons.
- [124:06]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, but that was.
- [124:06]
Bill Simmons
Hawaii's the hardest. And then Thailand's just a wild card every day.
- [124:10]
Dave Bernat
Wild car. Yeah, Hawaii was the hardest just cause of COVID And also you didn't know what Covid was at that point, how dangerous it was. And I'm a producer, I'm not an epidemiologist. And people are looking at you like, oh, you're a producer. You should have the cure for Covid or no. So people are coming to me for Covid advice plus producing advice. So it was a very tough spot to be in season three where it kind of got more into a groove. Just the elements of Thailand, the heat, mosquitoes.
- [124:36]
Bill Simmons
You said it's your favorite season.
- [124:37]
Dave Bernat
It's the best season. I'm really excited for people to watch it.
- [124:40]
Bill Simmons
And your three friends think it's another shitty season.
- [124:43]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. By the way, of course, it's really slowly paced.
- [124:45]
Bill Simmons
It really sucks.
- [124:46]
Dave Bernat
By the way, our dear friend Michael Lasker, who I love, he called me last night and he was like, yeah, I love the season. I'm on a text thread with people, they're talking about how slow it is. And I'm like, one. Why are you telling me this? You don't need to tell me this. You know Lasker, you can't help him uncontrollably. Can't help himself that season.
- [125:02]
Bill Simmons
He's got opinions.
- [125:03]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. But it's annoying to hear people go, oh, it's so slow. Because each season is paced the same way, by the way.
- [125:11]
Bill Simmons
It's not slow. You need to watch, unfortunately. And we have to do this for the recap pods. You kind of have to watch them twice to kind of absorb everything that's in there because it's like this dense, all this hidden shit going on. And you can't just watch it while.
- [125:28]
Dave Bernat
You'Re on your phone because, honestly, I love you. I love the ringer. I listen to all the reviews of the things I do. It's true. And so when you texted me and you're like, oh, I watched the first episode three times. I told Mike White that. I'm like, okay, people are going to like it. Bill watched it three times. It means something's going on. But I'm really excited for people to see where it goes because it is completely unexpected. It's a little demonic. That's what Mike and I talk about. It's the most demonic of all the seasons in the best way possible.
- [125:58]
Bill Simmons
Well, I mean, see, we don't have to spoil Episode three. But snakes, fires, and tsunamis are some of the dream visuals going on in the third episode.
- [126:08]
Dave Bernat
And that's what's exciting, is the plot hasn't even really kicked in yet. So there's so much unexpected stuff to come. And I love the cast, like Patrick Schwarzenegger, Jason Parker, the three women, everyone. And just great people. It was a really, really, really amazing experience.
- [126:26]
Bill Simmons
So you're almost doing the Belichick salary cap move, where you're just getting these awesome veterans to be, like, the middle linebacker, but you don't have to shoot your wad on Ryan Reynolds.
- [126:38]
Dave Bernat
Cause ultimately, it comes back to what we were saying before. Mike is a star. And it is kind of like. It's kind of like okc. They have this culture that they built. I was talking about this with someone the other day, honestly, with Tommy, our mutual friend. OKC has built an incredible culture around that team. And people buy in. And that's kind of what we've tried to build with White Lotus, which is. This is a show, everyone.
- [127:01]
Bill Simmons
You don't think LeBron's built that kind of culture. Why didn't she use LeBron as an example?
- [127:05]
Dave Bernat
No comment. And I think it's like, Mike is a star. It's Mike's show, and people are signing up, and they're coming to do this show because they're believing in what. What we're making. And everyone is at mfn. Everyone's getting paid the same. Everyone has the same trailer. Everyone has the same exact status. And across the board, all of us. And we're kind of. Everyone is choosing to be there because they want to make a great show. Not because of the money, not because of anything else. And you kind of feel that on set. It's really. It's funny. Body language, Bill, is my favorite thing. And I was. I always think about that as it relates to actors in White Lotus. In the casting process, you can kind of feel people's body language.
- [127:45]
Bill Simmons
Really?
- [127:45]
Dave Bernat
Yeah.
- [127:46]
Bill Simmons
Like that they're there. Cause their agent told them to be there because they know it's a good show, but they don't actually watch it.
- [127:52]
Dave Bernat
Why they're there and how hard they're fighting for those parts. And it's funny on set. I was thinking about body language says so much. I remember I'm a dire Broncos fan. I remember going to see Jay Cutler play live, and I just remember he threw a. A pick in the end zone. And I remember his body language walking off the field, I'm like, oh, he fucking sucks. And I remember when traded, I was so happy. And body language says so much about people. And I was thinking about that as it relates to this season. And this was a really hard show to make with the elements in Thailand and people were so committed and the body language and the energy every day was so good. And I think that comes through in the show and it comes through in people's performances and I think it comes through. And by the end of the season, I hope people agree with me. But yeah, I do think it's the best season we've done.
- [128:38]
Bill Simmons
And Mike's no help. He's writing every single line.
- [128:41]
Dave Bernat
Every single line. Well, Mike's a genius.
- [128:45]
Bill Simmons
But it was funny because at one point when they, during one of the. I forget when the writers strike was. And one of the things they were talking about how, oh, this one, they don't have a writer's room. It's like, yeah. Cause it's like an eight hour movie. He doesn't need a fucking writer's room.
- [128:58]
Dave Bernat
But also this is a thing. And Mike, I've been working with Mike for 20 years. Mike is authentically himself. I think the key to being successful, I think as a producer or a writer is knowing your strengths, knowing your weaknesses. Mike's weakness is being in a room with writers. And Mike's weakness for him, that's just not how he approaches the creative process. And he's not critical or judgmental of anyone else's process.
- [129:27]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [129:27]
Dave Bernat
But the thing, he had a mental break. The last time you ran a room, he had a mental breakdown and ended up in a mental hospital. And he talks about it a lot. And that was because of the process for him. He just doesn't, he doesn't exist in that process.
- [129:40]
Bill Simmons
But why wouldn't people just think of it as a seven hour movie? Which is what it is.
- [129:44]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. And of course. And what Mike is saying is anyone can do whatever they want. I just need to do my process. And he was like, I'm never returning to tv. And he returned to TV to do Enlightened because HBO said to him, you don't need to have a writer's room. You can do it on your terms. And that's how I was able to do it. And so I think Mike, yeah, I mean, what he does, I don't know how he does it. And again, he's a genius.
- [130:08]
Bill Simmons
And the two people, I don't know how they do it are him and Taylor Sheridan.
- [130:11]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. I don't know how.
- [130:12]
Bill Simmons
I don't understand how Taylor Sheridan is producing this much content.
- [130:15]
Dave Bernat
I don't know.
- [130:16]
Bill Simmons
It really does feel like I made the limitless joke before. But he really does feel like the limitless. We're going to find out. He found some sort of something that.
- [130:24]
Dave Bernat
Or he has an Adderall addiction and he's going to go to rehab at some point in the next five years. I don't know how he does it.
- [130:30]
Bill Simmons
His body naturally produces Adderall.
- [130:32]
Dave Bernat
Exactly. By the way, there's something going on with him, I think. But Mike is focused on one thing. He wants to do one thing really well. He doesn't want to spread himself thin. And I think that saying no, kind of what we were talking about at the beginning, is a superpower of his. He knows his limits and he has to focus on one thing. And. And he pours. That's the thing that people don't realize. He pours every inch of his life into making White Lotus at the cost of personal friendships, family. And he cares about every. We'll be in a mix in episode four of the season, and he'll hear something, and he's so focused on the attention to details that nobody else is thinking about.
- [131:12]
Bill Simmons
So is the number one thing that happens to you at this show people suggesting locations for the next season?
- [131:17]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, of course. Like that. Or my other favorite things.
- [131:20]
Bill Simmons
If my wife came in right now, she'd be like, why don't you guys do a skiing season, by the way? Go to, like, Switzerland.
- [131:25]
Dave Bernat
Mike doesn't like the cold. That's why we'll never do it. So we'll never do it. I can. I feel confident we'll never do a season in the cold, but you're not.
- [131:31]
Bill Simmons
Going to do a ski season.
- [131:33]
Dave Bernat
I. He just. Mike is. Mike's not built for. He's a California guy. He's not built for the cold. But never say never. But I would be surprised. But, yeah, I think part of the best part, or one of the best parts of my job now is hotels are calling me because they're like, Mike says I get the runoff. Mike says, no.
- [131:53]
Bill Simmons
Well, definitely work with that Italy hotel. It became one of the hottest hotels in the world.
- [131:58]
Dave Bernat
But I'm telling you, every hotel is now offering to fly us to see the hotel. So I get Mike's runoff. They'll offer to Mike. Mike will go, no. And they go, who's second? Ok, let me go down the call sheet. So I'll get the phone calls and they'll be like, we'll send a plane. We'll fly you to X City.
- [132:12]
Bill Simmons
You're like a VIP at a casino. They're sending you the private plane so you can come gamble there.
- [132:17]
Dave Bernat
Honestly, it's like, that's the. That's. And I love to travel. So it's like. So now it's like, how do I say yes to all these things? And I think the next couple months, I'm going to be flying all over the country, looking at. All over the world, looking at hotels.
- [132:27]
Bill Simmons
Do you figure out the location first or do you figure out the idea?
- [132:31]
Dave Bernat
And that's kind of what I was saying about the Thailand story. It. I think there's a. First is the theme. We knew season three. We wanted to kind of explore Eastern philosophy and kind of bigger existential religious ideas. And so we knew it had to be Asia. And we didn't really land on the series until we landed on Thailand. And I'm not exaggerating. Mike hallucinated the season, and so it came very organically. And so I think season four, we have. I know what the themes are. I won't talk about, but so I know we have.
- [133:00]
Bill Simmons
Oh, so you know it. Okay.
- [133:01]
Dave Bernat
Yeah, we have a general concept, and then we'll go scout cities that could make sense for that general concept. And I think the season will present itself once we land in sea hotels.
- [133:14]
Bill Simmons
So Mike could be like, season four is about adultery. That's what I'm excited about. Okay, let's think about locations. That would be a good adultery location.
- [133:23]
Dave Bernat
Exactly. But it's funny, though, because Mike, part of his genius as a writer, he's always paying attention. For example, we were in Bangkok, and I went and had drinks with someone we were scouting, and this person was talking to me about these bald guys who come to Thailand, and they're dating these young women, and she's like, yeah, we call them LBHs.
- [133:44]
Bill Simmons
They're just filing it away.
- [133:46]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. So I go in the van the next day, and I'm like, so funny. Met with this girl. I was out, and she was talking about LBH's losers back home. And I just kind of say it as a funny anecdote. Mike files that away, and then it pops up, episode one, the lbhs. And he's always paying attention, and he's always kind of just observing. And there's so many things that happen in the show that I'm like, I think maybe somehow I unintentionally, or somebody in our group unintentionally inspired it. And whether he's making fun of us or unclear.
- [134:21]
Bill Simmons
So if he does season four, there's a podcaster. Well, feel like he's making fun of maybe this podcast we're doing right now.
- [134:27]
Dave Bernat
You never know. Somehow some character will end up on a podcast. Me. So that's what I was like. He'll have a general concept, we'll go travel, and then ideas will sprout and it'll kind of focus where we're headed and what he's writing.
- [134:39]
Bill Simmons
This is the part of the podcast where I pitch a White Lotus character for some season and it's awkward and you end up not doing it. Please. I just feel like an NBA player going on vacation is the all time, just sitting there idea, which then you could really get involved with. I don't know if Mike cares. But these. I was thinking about it during All Star break. All these guys went away and they went. Like a couple guys you could see were like, almost a little sunburned. But I was thinking, like, this is where I would love White Lotus to go one year, is have like a basketball star. And we could all try to guess what pieces of stars you took to make this star.
- [135:15]
Dave Bernat
Well, did you see the video of Luka banging threes? He took the ulcer break to go off and just start banging threes.
- [135:20]
Bill Simmons
Right. He went to Cabo. Right? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [135:22]
Dave Bernat
Just banging threes. It's funny because no matter how successful I am in Hollywood, film, tv, meeting an athlete, any athlete, is still the thrill of my life.
- [135:31]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [135:32]
Dave Bernat
So I love this idea as an.
- [135:33]
Bill Simmons
Excuse to catch, just to hang out with athletes. Yeah. And then it's like, do we get a real athlete? Do we get a fake athlete? Because the other one I was thinking was quarterbacks would be a good one too. During the off season, they go away, they bring whoever. And you could have. The guy brings his wife, but also his girlfriend staying somewhere else in the hotel. And you got that whole thing going.
- [135:52]
Dave Bernat
Well, I'll tell you a funny story, which is season one, Wylos. We're in Maui. Four seasons. Maybe you know this, maybe you don't, which is. That is like the Lakers hotel. So I am a. Like, if I had to.
- [136:04]
Bill Simmons
No, I'm never going there.
- [136:05]
Dave Bernat
But if I had to say, like, Magic Johnson is my idol. I grew up writing letters to him. When he retired, I was inconsolable. I think I skipped school. He is my hero. And if I had to liken myself, really, to a basketball player, as a producer, it's Magic Johnson.
- [136:23]
Bill Simmons
Unselfish.
- [136:24]
Dave Bernat
Unselfish. So we are at the Four Seasons, and I think somehow we hear that Magic Johnson is staying at the hotel and I tell Natasha Rothwell and I tell Jennifer Coolidge. Oh my God. I mean, Magic Johnson is my idol. My little brother is there and my little brother knows better than anyone, John, how much I love Magic Johnson. So they're like, you're gonna meet Magic Johnson? And I'm like, I don't know. And I'm walking through the hotel, I see him with Cookie. They're walking through the lobby and I freeze up like, I can't do it. The next day I'm on set and I get a call from Jennifer Coolidge. And she goes, you know, Magic just left the hotel. He tipped everyone, the staff love him. They just told us he's leaving. They're like, you need to come down here, come to the lobby, you're going to meet Magic Johnson. And I'm wearing all a Covid mask. I have long hair because we haven't gotten our haircut. I run down the lobby. I'm just sitting in the lobby now and I'm like, this is my one moment to be Magic Johnson. And there comes Magic Johnson with Cookie. And he's with the manager who I've gotten to know. And so I go up and I introduce myself and I'm now the 11 year old version of myself. And I'm like, great to meet you, Magic. I love you so much. And I'm a producer and I basically tell him how much he's changed my life and how much he means to me. And I bump. I'm just a moron. And he goes, he's like, wait a second, who are you? What do you do? And I basically tell him I'm producing a show, White Lotus. And at this point no one knows White Lotus is. And I basically tell him how much he means to me. And he's like, do you want to take a photo? I take a photo with him and of course it's now framed on my wall. And I think to this day now I'm like, I wonder if he's seen the show.
- [138:02]
Bill Simmons
Oh, I promise you he's seen the show. Magic watches all the tv.
- [138:07]
Dave Bernat
But he must be like, because he must have been like, who the fuck is this idiot? A grown man talking to me like he's a little boy.
- [138:15]
Bill Simmons
By the way, this happens to Magic every day, like seven times a day. So I watched it a bunch of.
- [138:20]
Dave Bernat
Times, but it was amazing.
- [138:21]
Bill Simmons
People melt into puddles when they talk to him. It's unbelievable. Plus he's gigantic. I mean, you're tall, but he's, it's, it's. You just can't believe he's. He's six, nine and he's right there.
- [138:31]
Dave Bernat
But it's also like, yeah, I'm like, I reflected on what I said to him, like, wow, what an idiot. I'm like, I produce the way you play basketball, you know, like. But anyway. But point is, we're going to get an athlete. Season four. I'm going to figure that out. You've inspired me.
- [138:47]
Bill Simmons
I don't know what the right sport is, but I feel like it has to be NBA or football.
- [138:52]
Dave Bernat
Well, I mean, I take so many meanings with that because again, I want to do something with athletes. And I've been trying to talk Travis Kelce into something that's my dream is to do a show or a movie with an athlete.
- [139:07]
Bill Simmons
Well, our friend Tommy, Tommy Alter, who's people know from this podcast, he was involved with it for a long time, but he said from the moment Travis Kelce did snl, he's like, this guy's gonna be an A list action movie star. I'm calling it now. He planted his fight. He was the first one who planted his flag.
- [139:23]
Dave Bernat
Oh, yeah, no.
- [139:24]
Bill Simmons
And because I feel like we need it, like, carry on. I know a crush for Netflix. I didn't really love Taron Edgerton as the lead. We're missing these guys that I grew up with in the 80s 90s. These a little bit of unintentional comedy, but can act just barely good enough. But they're also physical and awesome.
- [139:42]
Dave Bernat
I'm doing a movie with John Cena next. John Cena is. But what's annoying is I'm a season ticket over to the Broncos. I love the Broncos. Of course, I know very well about Travis Kelce. He's been killing us for 15 years. CA calls me and they go, come meet with Travis Kelce. This is before he was dating Taylor Swift. And I'm like, obviously. He's like, he'll meet with you in Kansas City. You have to come out for a game. I'm like, obviously. And between then and when I finally go out, he's now the biggest star in the world. So it kind of feel like I missed that a little bit. But Travis Kelce is so funny, so charming, so personable. When he's ready to kind of focus himself with acting, he's going to be a big star.
- [140:20]
Bill Simmons
It would have been funny if you caught him during White Lotus season one and he was just working for Murray Bartlett. He was like the 20th guy in white Lotus. Just came down to Hawaii to hang out.
- [140:31]
Dave Bernat
But that's Actually, one thing I was. I kind of feel like now it's so obvious, but I feel like I was a little early, and then I missed that boat a little bit. But Travis Kelsey. But I think when he wants to, he'll be a big star. He'll be John Cena. John Cena is so funny, so talented, and has that physicality of the stars that were 80s 90s.
- [140:49]
Bill Simmons
Did we hit everything?
- [140:51]
Dave Bernat
Yeah.
- [140:51]
Bill Simmons
That was like an hour. They can always come back. People like White Lotus Season three. They're happy with it. Except your three buddies, those fucking assholes.
- [141:01]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, like, our Rotten Tomatoes is.
- [141:03]
Bill Simmons
Is Rotten Tomatoes. Come on. I don't look at Rotten Tomatoes. Do you?
- [141:06]
Dave Bernat
I don't. If I was. It's pathetic how much I consume response to the show. Like, I will. I don't know. I will sit on Twitter. I will read all the comments.
- [141:18]
Bill Simmons
Oh, don't do that.
- [141:19]
Dave Bernat
I can't help it. I'm also really. I'm actually really interested in people's theories on what happens this season. And I'm kind of consumed by people's theories because it's really fun. It's like, well, that's why we did.
- [141:30]
Bill Simmons
The pod the way we did it this year, because I love that. The one at a time. That's the only way to do it. You really have to, like, oh, I think. And then an episode later, you're completely wrong.
- [141:39]
Dave Bernat
I'll be honest with you, and I mean this genuinely. I really value your opinion.
- [141:44]
Bill Simmons
Oh, thank you.
- [141:45]
Dave Bernat
I do. Both on sports, but also on film and tv. And so I was really nervous to listen to the first episode, your episode about White Lotus. So other people listened to it. And I asked. I was like, is it positive or negative? I didn't want to go. I wanted to know it was okay because I care about what you think. And.
- [142:02]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [142:02]
Dave Bernat
So I was very excited to know that you like the show.
- [142:05]
Bill Simmons
I like going on vacation with shows and people being in the right hands of creators and that, like, this show is perfect because, like, I've never been to Thailand and I'm never going. Especially after hearing some of the things that happened to you when you were there. I'm just never going. I told my wife. She's reconciled it. She could take my daughter.
- [142:20]
Dave Bernat
Well, what's cool is you get to see a lot more of the country as the show goes on this season. And maybe we'll seduce you by the end. Maybe we'll.
- [142:28]
Bill Simmons
There's no safari that's not on the list, right? African safari.
- [142:32]
Dave Bernat
We'll talk about that. We'll talk about that as a potential.
- [142:35]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, because that's the great thing about this show. You have all these locations. You go to fucking 10 seasons.
- [142:39]
Dave Bernat
It's a dream. But also it's like, where do you want to live? Lifestyle is part of the decision making because you're there for a year. And so we talk about different continents.
- [142:49]
Bill Simmons
And kind of nothing in America, though.
- [142:52]
Dave Bernat
Maybe we'll come back. We talked about at some point, could.
- [142:54]
Bill Simmons
Do like Yellowstone, but that's. Then it's cold or something.
- [142:57]
Dave Bernat
Yeah. Depends on time of year. But what's really fun, what's been fun about this season is also Thailand's a place that people don't really know and they're familiar with it from the hangover. And it's been really amazing seeing the response and broadening the understanding of Thailand and Thai culture beyond the surface level, beyond full moon party or sex tourism or whatever it is, which is an element of Thai culture, but it's not Thai culture. And it's been really great to see a country that's, you know, that needed the exposure. And they've really, you know, they've really responded to that and they've been so warm to us. And Mike told me yesterday he met the prime minister. He came. Jesus. He was like, if I asked him for a passport in his citizenship, I feel like they'd give it to me. But, you know, it's been really exciting to kind of put a country on the map that hasn't really had that exposure. And that's kind of maybe part of our calculus going forward. Also. It's like, what's an undiscovered gem? And what are places that people aren't that familiar with?
- [143:56]
Bill Simmons
All right, we'll leave on these two things. One, Luka, you must be over the moon.
- [144:01]
Dave Bernat
I remember, I mean, like, everyone, it was like midnight, 12:05, I get a text from my little brother and he texted me something. I was like, did the Lakers die in a plane crash? What happened? I was like, he just sent me, basically. He's like, wow, Lakers. I was like, what does this mean? I go on ESPN and I'm like, it took a second because I love Anthony Davis and I think he's so underappreciated.
- [144:22]
Bill Simmons
Wow, the Anthony Davis zag.
- [144:24]
Dave Bernat
No, no, but, but I mean, like, the last, it was against the Nuggets game. You're like, oh, yeah, this team is going to be good. And also, just like, he plays like. He's like Magic Johnson, right? He has like, he Just plays in the same way.
- [144:38]
Bill Simmons
Now he's mad.
- [144:40]
Dave Bernat
Oh, yeah, yeah. Which I love.
- [144:40]
Bill Simmons
He's already skinnier. It took, like, a week. Like, it felt like he already lost.
- [144:43]
Dave Bernat
Like, that, which I love. It's like the ultimate. It's like Liam Neeson and Taken, they've basically. He's basically like, I'm going to the next 15 years. He's basically going to fuck the league up. And as a Lakers fan, as someone who goes to games, I am so excited to see him play. I had tickets to that Saturday game where we thought the Luca was going to play, and I, like, I had canceled all these plans. I had tickets, and I was ready to go. And then the last second, they moved his first game to the 10th, which was the White Lotus premiere. And for like, five seconds, I'm like, do I skip my own premiere to go see Luca play? It's like, is that something I do? But, yeah, I'm very excited about Luca. It's exciting to be in LA for this.
- [145:22]
Bill Simmons
So your life is basically people talking about the Luca trade with you, people suggesting White Lotus locations, and then people trying to set you up. Those are your three things.
- [145:32]
Dave Bernat
Honestly, that's it. That's genuinely, like, consuming way too much.
- [145:37]
Bill Simmons
But wait, Lucas, a hot show. You're probably getting some good offers for setups. I've heard rumors.
- [145:42]
Dave Bernat
No comment. Yeah.
- [145:44]
Bill Simmons
But, yeah, that's a nice one to drop at a party when you're talking to somebody. What do you do? I'm an EP on White Lotus.
- [145:51]
Dave Bernat
Well, I tend to. I mean, I have good friends who somehow seem to work that into every intro. My whole identity now is the White Lotus producer. That is my identity. And, you know, going forward, which I can't complain, which I'm very fortunate.
- [146:03]
Bill Simmons
Nice hook for you. All right, Dave, good luck with the rest of the season.
- [146:06]
Dave Bernat
Thank you.
- [146:07]
Bill Simmons
Rob, thanks for coming over.
- [146:08]
Dave Bernat
Of course.
- [146:09]
Bill Simmons
All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to SHIELD and Dave. Thanks to Kyle and Surudi and Gahal. As always. Don't forget, you can watch this as a video podcast on Spotify. And you can also watch on our YouTube channel, the Bill Simmons YouTube channel, new Rewatchables as well. If you missed it, Crash. That's up there. And then White Lotus. If you're in on that show we've been covering on the Prestige TV podcast, me, Mallory and Joanna doing the recap pods. And then afterwards, during the week, Rob Mahoney join Robinson with their Deep Dive Theory podcast. So we have all that going, and I love that show. And I'm glad Dave came on. Anyway, I will see you on this podcast on Thursday. Must be 21 plus in President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President D.C. gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-89-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplianma.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny in New York. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn. In basketball, a blockbuster trade can make or break your playoff run. Before the deadline, GMs across the league scour for the right data and insights, hoping their moves pay off February 6th trade deadline this year. By the way, just like in basketball, growing your small business in 2025 all comes down to how well you can build your team. That starts with better insights from LinkedIn with unique skills and interests to the connections you have in common. LinkedIn has the strongest hiring data and insights to help you identify the right professionals so you can make the best hiring decisions. LinkedIn pairs you with the high quality candidates you need to make your business grow and flourish. LinkedIn also lets you go beyond candidates who are actively applying In a given week, 171 million LinkedIn members aren't actively seeking jobs, but they are open to new opportunities. Who isn't? That's a big pool of people you don't want to miss out on. And who knows, one of them could be your next All Star player. So hire smarter in the new year. Find your next Great hire on LinkedIn. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com Simmons Once again, LinkedIn.com Simmons to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply.