← The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Bill Simmons Podcast
March Madness Takes, NBA Lottery Debates, and Best NFL Draft Story Lines With J. Kyle Mann and Todd McShay
02:09:27
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- [00:01]
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- [01:07]
Bill Simmons
The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by Sam's Club we are also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network Put up a new episode of the Rewatchables on Monday night. We did the Nice guys. It was part of CR Month. Me, Chris Ryan, Rob Mahoney. The last one we're doing for crmonth next Monday night LA Confidential so you have a few days to watch it. People have loved CR Month. We had a mailbag as well if you missed that. I'm not doing baseball today but I have been really into this baseball preseason and I actually think the Red Sox are going to be good. I just want to get some quick stuff down on the record before we hit the podcast. I think the Red Sox are going to be good. I think the over under for them on FanDuel is 87 and a half. I think they're high 80s at least. My favorite over in the American League is the Baltimore Orioles which I think they're 85 and a half. But the 90 plus win I think is interesting. That's like plus one 70. I just like them. I think they had like the year from hell last year. They did some smart stuff on the off season. I like the Alonzo signing, I like their pitching. A bunch of young guys ready to go and I think in general I think the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles are all going to be really good and we'll, we'll see with the Blue Jays if they're going to have the year after curse. But in the American league usually there's three 90 win teams or four leans more toward three, sometimes four. But I feel like Red Sox, Orioles and I think the Mariners are going to be the third 90 plus win team. So one of the bets I was looking at was Red Sox 80 plus wins, Athletics 70 plus wins, Orioles 90 plus wins and Seattle 90 plus wins. That's plus 7. 32. Misao Henshin, House. I'll, I'll jumped in and did that as a group bet this morning. But I'm excited to have baseball back and I think so I'm going to have the Red Sox and I think I'm going to be rooting for the Athletics and the Orioles and the Mariners overs as well. Lots to talk about. I'm really fascinated by the height stuff with baseball too. I want to get Billy Gill in there to do a complete height breakdown because now they had to measure people for the automatic strike zone, which I thought was very exciting. So anyway, that's probably coming either later the week or next week, but wanted to get that down on the board. Red Sox over the shirt. Red Sox are going to be good. And I think Roman Anthony, there's MVP buzz for him, which scares me. But, but he has a chance to have a little bit of a Drake May ish year too. I think that's, that's the hope in Red Sox nation. But we like this team. This is good starters. I think they have bullpen and they have a lot of bats. They almost have too many bats and in, in kind of loaded up at different positions and I'm interested to see what kind of mid season trade they make. So stay tuned. All right, coming up on this podcast, I'm gonna do a mini bail bag at the top. We're gonna talk to J. Kyle Mann about the, the Sweet 16 this weekend. Some of the draft prospects stuff. My love for Acuff. As you remember, like a month ago House and I were raving about Acuff and he's, he's exceeded our expectations. So we're gonna do a whole bunch of March Madness stuff and then Todd McShay is gonna come on to talk about the NFL draft and whether this is the most boring draft we've had this decade. That's my feeling. Maybe he could talk me out of it. So basketball, football, little mailbag next. Take a break, Pearl Jam and then mailbag. This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is presented by Sam's Club. It is that time of the year when you just gotta get in your car and go somewhere. I've done that plenty of times in my life. Nowhere gets you ready to go? Quite like Sam's club. Snacks, the gear, super low prices on gas. They got a bunch of stuff that keep you and the whole crew rolling. And here's what you got to do. You got to join the club of yes. And@sam's club.com. yes. And you must be 18 years or older to purchase membership. A membership is subject to qualifications. Visit Sam's club.com yes and for details. Kyle Manus here from the ringer. You can hear him on the ringer NBA show. You can read him And Dana Chow doing an awesome draft guide for us. This draft is out of control. I mean we get to watch some of these guys actually kick ass in the. In the tournament. Some are gone, some remain, some are playing each other. We have a whole guard, we have a top four and then we have a little guard kind of cluster that you just know five guards in a row aren't going. So something weird will happen with that. And we have my guy Acuff. I feel vindicated. House and I were all in a month plus ago. He's been great. So there's a lot to discuss. I want to start here though with the non basketball, with the non March Madness thing. So let's talk about expansion. Last week and I got this email from Nathaniel who like me, wonders why Vegas is automatically the second choice for expansion behind Seattle. He called it this entitled trust fund baby sports city being handed every team doesn't understand it. And he's like, why would we add two more west teams? So he was like, why wouldn't we consider a midwestern city? Columbus, Ohio, for example, second biggest city population wise in the Midwest, but behind Chicago, 300,000 more people than Vegas. They had the pathetic blue jackets who were actually turned around two hours from Cleveland, but mentioned Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Louisville, Lexington. What's your thought about Louisville Lexington with an NBA team? It's been rumored and whistled around a couple times. But is it conceivable that that would happen?
- [07:07]
Kyle Mann
I mean, there are obviously, as you know, a lot of layers to it in terms of like the first level of. Is there interest in it? Yes. I mean, my God, yes. This place is just consumed with basketball. Granted. It's like we don't have any pro teams here. So I mean, I tell this story that like some. Some dude with like a like hillbilly. Like that's the wrong way to put it. Just like one of those long gray panhandler beards. This country dude was working on my house and he like caught wind that I was a basketball Guy, and he just had this big twang voice, and he goes, you think the Duan Wagner can shoot the ball? It's just like. It's everywhere. It's everywhere. It's like everybody knows everything about high school prospects and things like that, so. And then there's the history of the Kentucky Colonels killed here, the Hubie Brown team, and they won. They were good. And I mean, you know all about that history. It's like. So, I mean, like, in terms of getting interest in it, I think it'd probably be pretty similar to Oklahoma City, except Oklahoma City didn't have any other basketball entity competing with it. So on that level, I. I think people would eat it up, man. I don't think that'd be any problem.
- [08:08]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. I might have to do a special episode with the cases for other teams, because Seattle should have. Had never had lost their team and should have a team. And I'm all in on either. We relocate and give them a team. We have expansion. Like, Seattle has to have a team. I don't personally think we should expand. I think there's other teams. We could move around, whatever. But if we're talking about what the other team should be, and you have Kansas City, which I think could. Could potentially have a real case. I think the Louisville, Kentucky area, Nashville versus Memphis. I. I think it'd be weird to have two Tennessee teams, and if anything, it would probably make more sense for the Memphis team to be in Nashville, but I. I just think there's other options. And Louisville. I remember a few years ago that it was in the mix for a second with. With rumors and stuff, so I didn't know. So you. So you're pro. You feel like you could support two major college basketball teams and an NBA?
- [09:03]
Kyle Mann
I think so. I mean, I. I would. We. We came really close. I mean, I think the Memphis one, back in the early 2000s, it came down to. It was a. It was a pivot, and it came really close. We've got a pro arena. There's a lot of stuff with, like, controlling the dates that they'd have to figure out. And there's the corporate stuff like UPS is scaling down here. Amazon has a huge. You could figure all that stuff out, I think, but I don't know. I'm with you. I think Seattle's the one that's just, like, for the justice of sports and outrage. Yeah, they got it. They got to have it back.
- [09:33]
Bill Simmons
I did two save our sonics mailbags in 2008 that are actually pretty interesting to reread. As this team's just getting taken away from those people. And that was almost 20 years ago at this point. So I want Seattle to have a team. I don't know if we need to add two more teams to make up for this egregious thing that they did almost 20 years ago. Speaking of that, I had a really good. I was going to do a couple mailbag questions with you, but this one was about Durant from Josh and Charlotte. I think KD going back to Seattle to finish off his career with the NBA Expands will excuse him from all his team changes throughout his career. It would just be really cool to see KD throw a supersonics jersey on again to finish it off. I'm really mad I didn't think of this and maybe I did and mentioned it in past, but now that we know that Seattle expansion's probably happening unless something goofy happens. But KD coming full circle and ending in Seattle, it's kind of the best redemption he ever could have had. Right? He won the two titles with the Warriors. He doesn't really have a franchise. And then it all comes around and he becomes like kind of the face of this rejuvenated Sonics thing and he never should have let. They never should have lost him in the first place. I really like the symmetry of it, Kyle. Man.
- [10:45]
Kyle Mann
Oh yeah. I've been. I've been eyeballing this for a while. Like, I think when I was working on that big Kevin Durant project like two or three years ago, it's a time warp. I forget how long ago that was, but that was one of the things I was just thinking about. His.
- [10:58]
Todd McShay
The.
- [10:58]
Kyle Mann
When you. When I was thinking about the arc of his and the narrative of the off court stuff with him, I was like, that would just be a really nice mouthwash for all of it.
- [11:07]
Bill Simmons
It really would be a mouthwash. It would be like one of those fancy ones, like a $25 mouthwash you get for Christmas from somebody. Got like a lot of alcohol in here.
- [11:15]
Kyle Mann
Like, whoa, you got fancy $25 mouthwashes for Christmas?
- [11:20]
Bill Simmons
My wife's friends will give. Weird, weird. Yeah, those, like weird bath kits or weird, weird toiletry kits. All that stuff.
- [11:26]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, I think I'm not in the artisan mouthwash market. I'll have to become familiar with that.
- [11:31]
Bill Simmons
Might not have gotten there into the, into the Louisville, Kentucky area yet. All right, a couple more. Mike Parsons wants to know, does Danny Hurley take the Lakers job offer if he knows Luca is going to be his franchise player within 7 months
- [11:47]
Todd McShay
can
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Kyle Mann
you imagine those two together? Oh, my God. I mean, he'd be fired.
- [11:51]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Danny Hurley would have quit already. I never believed that Danny Hurley saw it, did you?
- [11:58]
Kyle Mann
No. Because, I mean, it was pretty obvious what was happening. I mean, it was a pretty incredible moment where they were trying to rally Yukon to be more like financially invested across the board. Because I think they were in financial trouble at the time. But those questions have kind of gone away. And then it just never. He flirted with the Kentucky job too, in a way that was just like, can we just get through this?
- [12:16]
Bill Simmons
Is like, can we just get to where this is going to end up?
- [12:19]
Kyle Mann
And then he admits it, that his agent advised him to just flirt and bat his eyes at him. I mean, when they had all those young players and that was kind of the. The path that they were on before, they just pivoted unexpectedly with the Luca thing. You could talk yourself into it. It was like, this guy is. He's elevated every player that's played for him. He just had a. He had a good thing going. And he still has a good thing going. But man, I just don't. Who's the most intense. Who's the most intense coach in the league that knows that the backstop behind them is so solid that they can really, really get on guys? I mean, it's Missoula. I'm trying to think of the other. I mean, Spoelstra will just like. Because he knows that he has the
- [12:55]
Bill Simmons
top down supporter doesn't count. He can do whatever he wants. Cause he's like an institution there. Missoula is probably the one that it could go sideways if he handled it wrong. But I think he handles it really Well. I think JJ's up there. JJ will lay into those guys and get pissed off during games and, you know, treat them like adults. But that's like when you watch college. And I think this year especially, and this has been such a good tournament, so much fun to watch and so many storylines. But there's some real major personality coaches in this, none of whom would ever succeed in a million years as NBA coaches. Like, can you imagine Mick Cronin, oh my God. Coaching like the Minnesota Timberwolves or something? Like there's no chance even Pitino. We saw it fail with Pitino. We saw it fail with Calipari. It's just a different kind of breed. So I don't. I don't think curly style would work. I never thought it would work. Thought it would have been a huge mistake.
- [13:48]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, agree.
- [13:51]
Bill Simmons
So, all right, here's a couple more I had the. Talked about the. Wait, what? Moments of the 21st century. The Luca trade BAMs 83 and Malice in the palace couldn't really come up with the fourth one. And David from Portland says there's a clear fourth. The Thunder Jazz game getting postponed in March 2020 when Rudy got COVID 19. This was the oh shit moment for us basketball obsessed mouth breathers that made the pandemic real.
- [14:17]
Kyle Mann
Mouth breather is a really good choice of words there. Yeah. In the pandemic.
- [14:21]
Bill Simmons
But yeah, that's a really good one. And I think it's been lost in history because Covid in general and I barely remember anything from those first four months of COVID But that specific day of like, I remember going into my old house, going back to watch the basketball and putting it on and it. And it just was clear the game might not happen. And. And just the tech started and. And you go on Twitter and it was like, oh man. Yeah, we're really doing this now. We've been circling for two, but now this is now happening. But yeah, I think that would be a worthy fourth.
- [14:58]
Kyle Mann
It feels that day I can kind of replay in my mind and like the day before in a way that kind of. I feel like we're going to get. I don't know if we would ever do it from the sports angle, but I mean it was the. I guess it. The OJ doc, the 30 for 30. Right. Where they went through chronologically in the day. Yeah, I feel like that day could. Could. I don't want to watch that because for the reasons that you were just talking about. It's just like anytime I think about it, I just want to vomit. Yeah. I mean, my wife was pregnant. Like when that happened was getting ready to have a kid. So all that is just kind of like, yeah, that was. That was a traumatic time. But I specifically have a memory of. I went to. This is pretty funny. I per chance just got to go to a Caliperi fantasy experience. This is. A friend of mine had a ticket to it. I did not buy tickets before people start laughing. I just like he texted me the morning. But I remember we were. I was talking with all these people I didn't know. And I remember we were in. We were hanging out in this hotel bar and this guy was just talking my ear off about COVID and I was like not taking it seriously at the time. And he was trying to wait, hand wave it away. And he was just like going through. He was like bird flu disappeared and he Just rattled them off. And I can hear this guy's voice just reverberating in my head where he was just like, Covid, it's going to go away. Just like all those. And it was just kind of like one of those famous rippling, rippling moments of just like, man, I wish he had been right about that.
- [16:15]
Bill Simmons
John from Seattle was talking about SGA streak of scoring 20 points, 130 games right now. You like that streak? Ambivalent. Sort of like it. Where do you stand all the like,
- [16:28]
Kyle Mann
counting stat things these days? It's kind of like it, it feels like it requires another pass through to like get context, just because the, the, the volume is so much higher across the board, you know? And it's like, even when I hear the, When I hear the counting stat things, like with KD passing each other or passing, I don't you remember that staff meeting we had a few years ago where they were talking about LeBron was getting ready to pass the scoring title, and I just kind of murmured some backhanded comment about Kareem never shot threes and played four years of college. It's like there's just so many things like that where it's like, it's so hard at face value. I mean, to take it just as is. I just think that's my thing is like, if I hear them, I don't get as riled. I like to kind of like swoop in and kind of see unless it's something that just. They put the context in it for you when you hear it initially.
- [17:14]
Bill Simmons
Well, I remember writing about this in my book. Sometimes with these streaks or records, it's almost unfair to the eras or the decades when people didn't know this was going to matter. Cause like that the 70 wins and when the Bulls got to 72 and 10 and the warriors beat them, Nobody thought about wins like that really until the 70. The 1967 Sixers, when I think they went 68 and 13, it was the first time like a record was a big deal. And then we had the streak with the Lakers, and the Lakers beat them, and I think it went 69 and 13. But all those Russell Celtics teams, like, they're just trying to survive the season, right? They're playing like six games and seven nights. Like, nobody ever said, like, man, you should try to get 70 win, 65 wins or whatever. It's just they didn't think that way. So when I think about this 20 points in 130 games or whatever, Wilt, who is the most number obsessed Guy out of any superstar in the history of the league who literally led the league in assists 1 years just to prove that he wasn't unselfish and was passing up, like, layups so he could hand the ball, like, was just a maniac with this stuff. If he had known this was a streak, he just would have done it for, like, 500 games in a row. I don't. I just. I just think he would have been like, whoa, this is the thing. And he just would have kept doing it. So I don't know. Anyway, John from Seattle brought up the streak, and he said he thinks Mike Conley's streak of not getting called for a technical foul is more incredible than the Shea streak. It's over 1200 games without a technical foul. 19 seasons. What happens in his last game? Does he just crash out and get ejected, or does he try to throw a perfect game and just never get a technical? I gotta be honest, I forgot that this was a streak that existed. This is.
- [19:01]
Kyle Mann
Did not know an incredible.
- [19:03]
Bill Simmons
Why this. Why aren't we talking about this? Mike Conley passing the 1200 Merc?
- [19:09]
Kyle Mann
Do you think you. Do you think you're just, like, not doing your due diligence as a person, standing up for yourself if you don't get at least one? Like, is it an indictment or is it a credit?
- [19:17]
Bill Simmons
Are you, like, pushover?
- [19:19]
Kyle Mann
It's like, but Conley, I love Conley. It's just like. I don't know. I don't really know what to make of that. Who's the top. Who's, like, in the top 10 for that. That stat? Who's going on?
- [19:28]
Bill Simmons
I only know the other way, where it's, like, the most technicals in a year. Rashid had over 41 year. I think Draymond's probably moving toward the career leaders. But, yeah, I would love to know more about the Conley streak and whether he cares about it. All right, next one is. This is a great one. Conspiracy Bill. Really love this. Really jealous. I didn't think of this from Kyle Taylor. The Pacers have a top four protected draft pick thanks to that Zubotz trade. If the pick is 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, it goes to the Clippers. This. This is Kyle Taylor. This basically proves they know the lottery is rigged. They just forced Adam Silver's hand. Do you really think Adam Silver is going to let the Clippers get a pick in the 5 to 9 range this year? With all the aspiration stuff looming? Conspiracy Bill wonders if this came up when they were trying to make the Zubotsch trade with the protections. If anyone in the Pacer's office was like, hmm, you think, you think there's any world we don't get a top four pick if five through nine would go to the Clippers and make them better with all this other stuff going on? I don't know. I really like that one. Obviously it's ridiculous, but it's like a classic conspiracy one. There's just enough there. I was like, oh, all right.
- [20:46]
Kyle Mann
Sounds like a really good episode of Wait a second coming up.
- [20:48]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I'll get Concepcion at it.
- [20:51]
Kyle Mann
Pretty funny 2 parter inevitable 2 part episode with you. I feel like that's going to do big.
- [20:55]
Bill Simmons
I can't wait. I mentioned this email earlier from Matt in Charlottesville about Obama did a video with Anthony Edwards to promote the presidential library in Chicago and there was no one on the Bulls who could make it. And he asked was this the lowest it's ever gotten for the Bulls? So I actually made a list because I didn't do this with Zach. Lowest post Jordan Bulls moments It's Rose getting hurt in the first game of the playoffs in 2012 has to be number one. The Jay Williams motorcycle accident. Jay Williams was good.
- [21:24]
Kyle Mann
Forgotten the history dude Jay Williams was. Yeah.
- [21:27]
Bill Simmons
I remember there was one game when he, he when he went toe to toe with Jason Kidd where it was like wow, we might be really doing this with this guy. When they salary dumped luo dang in 2014 for Andrew Bynum and then waved him when they had like a 48 win team. A tax thing. That was horrible.
- [21:44]
Kyle Mann
I forgot about that one. Yeah.
- [21:45]
Bill Simmons
Booing Jerry Kraus family during the Ring of Honor night for the 96 Bulls. Really bad. And then they tanked for three years after Jordan left and there was no superstar in any of those drafts. 99, 2000, 2001. It was just like really bad luck if they, if you move those three years two years ahead. Now all of a sudden I'm at least with LeBron and Dwight Howard and might get a franchise guy that would be my top five. Other than that they're, they're cheap and they never pay the luxury tax and really seem to pay money for a front office and just do dumb things.
- [22:20]
Kyle Mann
The when the 44 point game, wasn't it 44 when that the, the low, the lowest point total game they had. I think that was in 99 when they only scored. I think it was 44 points like the, the all time record. I don't remember that.
- [22:32]
Bill Simmons
Jesus.
- [22:33]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, I think that was right after Jordan but yeah, you're right. I mean, those, like, falling. During that time, there was a. There was like a. There's a convergence of a lot of kind of things that suck for them right there. I mean, you're in the heat of the Shaq era, where teams are just trying to like, load up with a lot of overlapping things that I think hurt the skill level in the league where teams were like, really overdrafting to kind of get bodies to play Shaq. And then there was the high schooler thing going on. So you had the Kwamis and the Tyson Chandlers and the Eddie Curry's, and it's like Tyson ended up being a good player, but Eddie. All kinds of problems.
- [23:04]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, Jonathan Bender was a bad one.
- [23:06]
Kyle Mann
So that was tough because they had a lot of high picks during that time.
- [23:09]
Bill Simmons
Two great draft questions for you from Brian Noakes. Hypothetically, would you rather have Wemby or the top two picks in this draft?
- [23:17]
Kyle Mann
Wemby.
- [23:18]
Bill Simmons
Wemby, by far. Here's a better question. Wemby are the top three picks in this draft. I'd still take Wemby.
- [23:24]
Kyle Mann
Wemby, he's on a goat arc. You take the goat arc.
- [23:28]
Bill Simmons
Wemby are the top four picks of the draft. I get all of them. I could have. I can even have Caleb Wilson, man. I still.
- [23:37]
Kyle Mann
I still would take Wemby, Peterson, Boozer, DebonSA, and. And we'll say Wilson. Is that. Is that. What kind of a core is that? Like, do you think, like, if you took that four and compared that to the cores in the rest of the league that we really like. I'm trying to think, where would that rank? I mean, it'd be up there. I mean, that. That would be the best.
- [23:57]
Todd McShay
That.
- [23:57]
Kyle Mann
Probably the best young core, aside from the Spurs. I'm trying to think of the other ones.
- [24:02]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, well, the answer is the top five picks in this draft. Now you have my attention because now I could have Peterson and Acuff. I could have Caleb Wilson, Debancer and Boozer. I just have an entire starting five for Wimby now. I'm thinking about it.
- [24:21]
Kyle Mann
I don't. I don't know, man. I mean, the only thing that could creep in is you're just like, all right, there is a little. There is the little voice in the room that's like, Wimby's the seven foot
- [24:31]
Bill Simmons
seven guy who might get hurt. You never know. Yeah.
- [24:33]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, because we. We were doing like the. The redraft for the past few drafts, and I just, as an exercise ran them through this like Rubik rubric that I've been doing lately where I just say like, is they. Are they. Can you hunt them in switches? Do they fit this play style? Are they. Are they a spacer? Are they a rim protector? And Wimby got a perfect score other than. And I was going through every other. And I was just like, I can't shoulder shrugging it. But I was like the one, one thing that I have in there is volatility rating. And I was like wimby can't have a perfect volatility rating because everywhere else is good. But it's like there is that little sneaky thing of like you were saying. It's just like durability. You know, he's already encountered some of that. That'd be the only thing, man. Because like otherwise Wimy just. Wimy's impact is just. It's been, it's been belabored at this point. But it's, it's unbelievable.
- [25:20]
Bill Simmons
Another spurs question. Elliott Gold wants to know. He said he hasn't heard anyone talk about this and I know we haven't talked about it on the pod. If San Antonio could do it over again, would they take con or VJ? I don't think VJs in the conversation over Dylan Harper, knowing what they know now. So the question for me would be Khan because they have Fox and Castle as two ball handlers and then you're just adding this incredible shooter and guy who knows how to play with or without the ball. I think they would run it back with Harper and I think Harper is that special. But I also don't think they probably thought Khan was going to be this good right away. But I think Harper with Wemby I think is slightly more interesting. Like this incredible physical inside outside guard who's going to be able to learn how to shoot threes soon. And I think that's where you'd want to be with Castle. If that's about those three. I think that I like that three more than Castle, Khan and Wemby, but slightly, right?
- [26:20]
Kyle Mann
Yeah. I mean it's a no lose, obviously. I mean you're gonna. Con. Con would help them. I remember in the early mocks I had Khan getting drafted like picked to the spurs and I talked myself out of it because I was just like, they just don't really go with guys like that. Like they, they love to go with the big, switchy, physical, athletic guys and they're like the skill stuff we think will come around. Yeah, man. I mean, I think Dylan Has a chance to be like a first team all NBA guy. I mean he could flirt with like he's two way player, you know, gets just. Yeah, he's. He's a special guy, special talent.
- [26:50]
Bill Simmons
I get this email a lot. This one's from E and W. Would you ever consider becoming the GM of the Holy Cross basketball team? Especially with Dame Lillard running Weber State
- [27:00]
Kyle Mann
and feuding with Woah.
- [27:01]
Bill Simmons
Curry's assistant GM Davidson? Wo. I would. I would not do that because I would get too into it. I think it would ruin all the other stuff I'm doing. I would just become obsessed with trying to find guys. It sounds like a type a little bit to WO too. But I. No, thank you. I would not want to be in the nil world.
- [27:20]
Kyle Mann
I think one year, one year and we film it. You wouldn't do it.
- [27:23]
Bill Simmons
I think that's the only way you would do it. If it's like a documentary and a book and you're. Because Holy Cross would be the team to do it. Because there's no, there's no reason they couldn't beat Gonzaga in the East. Like they. They really could. There's. There's a New England school that should be awesome. That should just be cherry picking awesome New England kids every year and has a killer coach and you know, good education. But you're just like the school in New England. It doesn't exist.
- [27:49]
Kyle Mann
So you don't count St. John's or is.
- [27:52]
Bill Simmons
I mean, no, I'm saying like going from like past Connecticut. You're. You're talking about Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont. Basically like that part of the country, but really Massachusetts, where it's like it would be conceivable to build a powerhouse up so Debancea could be like, I know BYU's paying me, but I've always dreamed of playing here and playing at home. And that doesn't really exist.
- [28:20]
Kyle Mann
I'd love to see it.
- [28:24]
Bill Simmons
Did you watch the White Shadow?
- [28:26]
Kyle Mann
No, I never.
- [28:27]
Bill Simmons
You know, I'm going to feel like
- [28:29]
Kyle Mann
core curriculum, but I haven't.
- [28:30]
Bill Simmons
All right, I'll end with one goofy one from Ethan from Houston. If the Paul George suspension is actually helping the Sixers avoid the luxury tax, is the next logical step for the Kings to plant something in Zach Levine's suitcase? Obviously no team would do this. I was thinking though, plan something. Well, listen, if there was like a Landman type show for the NBA, like a completely insane show where crazy stuff happened, this would be a season one kind of cliffhanger plot, right? Where the GMs like, we gotta. We gotta get under the salary cap. What are we gonna do? And people start looking at each other. It's like, we gotta put. You gotta put something in a suitcase. We got. This is what we had. Because that would happen on, like, a Paramount show.
- [29:14]
Kyle Mann
Yeah.
- [29:14]
Bill Simmons
So.
- [29:14]
Kyle Mann
Or I was gonna say the. The industry guy who gets him back keeps turning the stereo up, industry calls the cops.
- [29:21]
Bill Simmons
The. The industry slash Paramount version of an NBA show. I think that actually would happen. All right, we're gonna take a break, and then we're gonna talk college. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Upsets buzzer beaters, game changing plays. What happens on the court keeps us on our toes, and life isn't any different. That's where State Farm comes in. With over 19,000 neighborhood agents for when you want to talk to a real person and easy to use digital tools, State Farm is there to help when facing the unpredictable. Because in life's uncertain moments, big or small, you need to know someone is ready to assist. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there with the assist. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer, availability, amount of discounts, and savings and eligibility vary by state. All right, March Madness. You love a Kyle man. It was a really good first weekend with a lot of chalk, but also it checked all my boxes because I got to watch some good players. I got some terrible coaching, like always. Bill Self, who's become, I think, my least favorite college coach for some. No rational reason for it. I just. For some reason, he annoys me. They blew it again. And we have some great games, including this weekend where we have Arkansas versus Arizona, we have Illinois versus Houston, we have St. John's versus Duke, and we have Bama versus Michigan. I honestly think those are four must watch games. Like, even if you're an NBA fan, you're not really watching college. Those four are like, awesome games. And in general, I feel like the level of basketball is just higher than it used to be. And we talked about that with Tate on Sunday, that we have better guards, we just have more talent. What's your favorite out of those four games? What are the one that. What's the one that you can't wait for?
- [31:12]
Kyle Mann
Oh, that is really hard to pick. I was going to say that D.C. regional is going to be incredible with Yukon and Michigan State and then Duke and St. John's I mean, the.
- [31:20]
Todd McShay
The.
- [31:20]
Kyle Mann
The narratives in Duke, St. John's are so great. I mean, Patino talking about, you know, redemption for the latent shot, granted. Patino's played Duke in the tournament before on their way to their 2013 title. I, I mean the two that jumped to me, Arizona, Arkansas, I think is going to be very fun and athletic. I can't wait. It's going to be very fun. You want to just start there?
- [31:41]
Bill Simmons
Does you think Burry's is going to guard Acuff?
- [31:45]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, I do. I think, I think that's going to be.
- [31:48]
Bill Simmons
I can't remember an actual draft pick spot being on the line for a game because as you leaves town. Yeah, as I told you over and over again, I think those are the two choices for five. I felt that way for weeks and I actually would give a slight edge to Burris just because I think it's harder to find guys like that. And there's this point, this is such a point guard draft. A lot of teams already have a point guard and Burry's just like, you just know what he is. And even I liked, I liked what he did over the weekend. It was five for seven. He made the biggest shot of the game. But him trying to guard Acuff is going to tell us a lot. And then Acuff, who's on just a fucking heater at this point, trying to navigate that, knowing that a team's going to have five days to think about how to stop him. I can't, I can't wait for that game.
- [32:36]
Kyle Mann
Yeah. Acuff versus, I think the narrative for that game is going to be if you just through the draft lens, I mean, Acuff versus Arizona's length is going to be the story because Arizona has a lot of size and strength. Arkansas is explosive and long and lanky. But they're not as beefy as Arizona. They have Krivos who's like 7 foot 2. He's gigantic. Co opied who's probably a first rounder. Toby, I walk as another guy who's a big strong dude. I think that's going to be the thing to watch. I was pulling up in, in preparation for this, just thinking about what to watch for. You know, his finishing is the thing that I'm going to be looking for him in the paint because I, I looked at the teams, I kind of, I cherry picked it. I mean, arc, they played a great schedule this year. They played a lot of teams with a lot of size. But I filtered for half court finishes at the rim and he had a hard time on Synergy. It was like 34.8% at the rim. So I want to see him use his left hand in the pain. I want to see him draw contact, get the line, those kinds of things. Because when he plays against bigger players, he kind. A tendency to just kind of like, you know, pray and throw it over the top of them, as opposed to like, he's not super creative, but like we talked about, he has all those other pluses that's like, you're nitpicking him. You know, it's like. And. And I think that's the basis for critiquing whether or not he can be a star is like, he's got to get that paint production up, I think, to validate that side of the argument. But, man, he's just such a great game manager. Shoots the shit out of the ball. It's gonna be a really fun matchup.
- [33:59]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I've noticed the. The rim stuff too, and that's where. Cause he really does remind me of Kyrie with a lot of the stuff he does. The one part where it falls apart is Kyrie would have that double clutch ability and that bang off, and he would always finish with a good shot. Acoff sometimes doesn't. But I also feel like, you know, he's in. He's been at the same college for less than a year. He's got Calipera as his coach. They kind of fall into ruts with him where he's just like driving right every time and you kind of know it's coming and they don't mix it up and have him coming out, getting the ball in different spots. A lot of times it's just. He's just driving right, and then teams overplay him, and then he'll cross over and try to get a little floater. I feel like there's more. There is my point. I don't. I think when, like, if you put him on a really smart team and they'll be like, look, this is what happens when you do this. This is what we think you should do instead of this. Like, the sky's the limit. And then the defense stuff, I just don't worry about with him. Like, did we talk about Kyrie's defense when he was coming in the league? Like, we.
- [35:01]
Kyle Mann
I worry about the defense, but it's.
- [35:04]
Bill Simmons
It's not going to be great. But you can win with guys who are, you know, who are elite offensive guys who aren't that good on defense. We've seen it.
- [35:13]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, they got to be pretty special. It's tough, man, but I think he's
- [35:16]
Bill Simmons
pretty special, is my point. Yeah, that can't be the reason not to take him fifth.
- [35:22]
Kyle Mann
I think it's not, it's. It's more a worry of how like spectacular offensively you take the rim. You take the rim stuff like I'm talking about. Because I think that that is going to be an issue if people can run him off the line. Yeah, I just, I'm not as like ready to say, to buy into the superstar talk and go as crazy as some of the people, other people are right now. I find myself on the little more pessimistic side of that because of the things we talk about. And then if you add, you got, you got to build around protecting him defensively. Now granted, I think like we were talking about on the last episode, I think he's going to scale a different type of role in the NBA because on this Arkansas team, man, he's making the food for everybody. And nobody, he, nobody's making food for him. Like he's, he's just making all the meals and it's like there's nothing easy. Like there might be a broken play where it comes to him and he bangs a three or whatever it is. But I think in an NBA offense where he's given more like catch and shoot things, he'll have a lot of opportunities to produce. I'm just like him driving a team as the star. I think there are just a lot of kind of outlying questions. Outstanding balance on the, on that conversation for me.
- [36:23]
Bill Simmons
I'm glad you made that point because I think he does so much offensively for this team. You have to factor that in the defense. And if your life's easier, it's a little easier to be a two way guy. Listen, he, he could look really bad in this Arizona game. This is the right kind of team, I think, to just throw multiple waves of defenders on him, scout him the right way and he could, this could be like a 6 for 21. On the other hand, he's a pretty special player and this could be a case of like, despite how good this Arizona team is, you know, he just goes on another heater. I don't know, like the stuff he's doing as a freshman, which doesn't have a lot of parallel in the history of, of the tournament. They were saying like Fox was the last guy who had points like this. And to me, like, worst case scenario, he's in that Fox Garland range as a pro where I think, I think he could be as good as Darius Garland. And that's maybe where kind of where this, where the floor is, right?
- [37:24]
Kyle Mann
Yeah.
- [37:24]
Bill Simmons
And that's. I like Darius Garland. That's a really good outcome for the sixth pick in the draft, you know?
- [37:31]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, absolutely. And those guys end up being. It's like the conversation kind of flows the same way where we're like, okay, this guy's probably the center of a team. And you.
- [37:39]
Bill Simmons
You.
- [37:39]
Kyle Mann
You think about the warts coming in a lot of times. I mean, those guys end up going to teams that don't have it going. Like the Cavs at the time, the Kings at the time, and this time and anytime, obviously, but they get a chance to have their own team, and. And they do have, like, a lot of production and output and everything. But the warts kind of come. You know, they come back eventually, and then we kind of resettle you into, like, okay, you're a really good player, but we can't live or die with your ability to sort of, like, feed everybody all the time and be efficient, and we protect you on defense and things like that. I think you're right about that. In terms of what type. Of. What type of player he's going to be. I mean, like, the.
- [38:14]
Bill Simmons
So I'm higher on him than you are.
- [38:17]
Kyle Mann
I would say you're. You're a little higher. Yeah. Than me. And I. I think I'm. I'm just in general, in the. In the overall conversation, I find myself being a little more worried than other people are about some of these things. But you're talking about the loser leaves town thing. The Fox Alonzo thing was the last. That was. That was one of the better ones we've ever had. Right. Those are facing off, but.
- [38:36]
Bill Simmons
And an awesome game, too. Like an actual memorable March Madness game. Yeah, I. I worry about the finishing stuff a little bit with him, too. Um, and I worry about that more than the defense, just because I saw the same thing you did, that It's. It sometimes looks bad and predictable. And like, we've. We're watching it with scoot right now. The Scoot's as good of an athlete as he is. His finishing just isn't good enough. And I. I thought he was going to be better as a pro just being like, this Derrick Rose type. But the difference between Rose, Westbrook, pick a guy who was awesome in the pros was they were able to finish it at the rim. I mean, going way back, this was the Bassey Telfair thing. It was like, bassey Telfair, whoa, look at him. And then it's like, yeah, this guy has no chance when he's driving the basket like this. Is not happening. I don't think acup's going to do that, but Arizona will be a good test. So Bama, Michigan.
- [39:28]
Kyle Mann
Oh, man. Yeah.
- [39:30]
Bill Simmons
This is where our guy. This could be. First of all, I think bama could absolutely win this game. Bama's good. They're 11 to 1 to make the final four. I think that's the best bet of all these call. I don't know if it'll happen, but I know the odds are better than 11 and 1. They could win two games in a row and make the final four. And our guy, the lost guard in this draft who might end up falling at 20 and being awesome. Like, this is going to be a really good stage for him.
- [39:54]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, I. I've been such a fan of lebaron filon for such a long time. He. I got to see him play in a showcase near my house for the first time, and that was kind of when the. The hearts over the eyes kind of popped out.
- [40:05]
Bill Simmons
You were te about him in, like,
- [40:06]
Kyle Mann
November, I was gonna say, of like, 20, 23, maybe. He just. He's just. He's a winner, man. We were talking about Mike Conley earlier. He has a lot of mf in him, but he's. He's not as passive as Conley, but he has a lot of the. The adhesive kind of things that fall between the wrinkles of a team. And this makes it. He just makes things work. He's a little bigger than I think people realize. Like, he's like six, three and a half, six four. He. He's. He's just. He's a lot lower and slinkier than a cuff. He's not as, like, solidly built, but he just. He's improved his shooting. He's very, very clever. He has, like, rondo y kind of qualities at times to me, where he just picks his spots really well. Good passer. He had like a. He had. You would have. You would have had. I need to send you this clip. He had a touch. A touch pass assist off of a rebound where he just lightly tapped it to one of his teammates, like, extended. And I. I remember thinking. I was like, yeah, that. That was a 1 million percent a. A Larry bird. But the problem with this is, like, Michigan just chokes people out. They just get you in a headlock.
- [41:06]
Bill Simmons
I get it.
- [41:06]
Kyle Mann
And then you make mistakes. Yeah, it's. It's gonna be tough.
- [41:09]
Bill Simmons
Well, you have him 12th on the. On your big board right now. Which. Where do we have in the last. He definitely moved up. Right? Wasn't he in the teens from.
- [41:19]
Kyle Mann
From when to win? That was the. That's the first outing. So he hasn't moved this year. He was on our board last year. Really high, actually. I don't remember.
- [41:26]
Bill Simmons
I'm looking at the thing now because Amet's 14 now and I'm just. I'm betting on Filon over aim at 100 times out of a hundred.
- [41:33]
Todd McShay
Just.
- [41:34]
Kyle Mann
Well, that.
- [41:34]
Bill Simmons
All due respect to Aimont, but Amet. But yeah, I just. There's. Come on. What are we doing?
- [41:42]
Kyle Mann
The. The. The Iowa State. Iowa State's gonna be a test for Amen. He's been dealing with, like, right leg sore, soreness and, you know, but I don't think that forgives some of the things that have been rough all year. It's just a lot of hypotheticals with him. And he's. I was.
- [41:57]
Bill Simmons
He's a get a GM fired kind of lottery pick.
- [42:01]
Kyle Mann
It's scary. It's scary. Yeah. Like I always say, it turns people over and they pressure. And if. If he has a good showing against them, I mean, that's kind of. You don't want to. You don't want to go too far of like, you know, somebody has a good game and you draft them based on that. But I don't know with this one, if he has a good outing against them and shows some toughness. I don't know if it's going to swing me dramatically. But I like.
- [42:20]
Bill Simmons
Outside the lottery. I see it once we move into the top 12. I'm just not seeing it at that point. Is it weird that I feel like Michigan is by far the most vulnerable out of these four? The four. We got Duke, we have Arizona, we have Houston, Michigan. Out of the super teams, something about Michigan makes me feel like somebody could get them. And I don't know what it is.
- [42:47]
Kyle Mann
I don't know, man.
- [42:48]
Bill Simmons
Because they control the block on the mains.
- [42:51]
Kyle Mann
They weren't playing well and they. And they've really gotten a lot of stuff together. Yaxel's playing incredible. I mean, they beat a scrappy St. Louis team. They. We'll see. I mean, once.
- [43:00]
Todd McShay
Once.
- [43:00]
Kyle Mann
The teams can kind of like, throw punches with them, size wise. Yeah, Alabama can't. Can't do that. They only. They only play one guy who's like 6 foot 10 and he's kind of beefy, so.
- [43:10]
Bill Simmons
So you think they could just get overpowered? That would be the fear with that game.
- [43:13]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, I think they just ch. I mean, their center's 7 foot 3. They're Morris Johnson's another guy that I think you would like. He's a real, like, Isaiah Stewart type, energy, muscular. And then Y Axel plays the three, and it's. It's. They're gigantic, man.
- [43:26]
Bill Simmons
So then we have Illinois, Houston, which is another crazy draft battle. Those are two guys that are going to be somewhere between five and nine. The guards on those teams, Fleming's people are cooling off on a tiny bit, it feels like, but we get to see them go against each other, and that's the bracket. Like, Houston's the favorite in that bracket, and they're plus 1 10. So that's the bracket that it seems like people feel like anybody could take. But do you have a strong feeling in either of those teams? Anything you like?
- [43:57]
Kyle Mann
I think any other year, I mean, sort of the pedigree and the style that Houston plays year to year is like, big, physical. Their bigs aren't as good this year. So this is. This is a really interesting juxtapos position of two teams here where Illinois is very finesse. A lot of Europeans on their team, a lot of skill guys. They have this guy Murkovich that I think you would really like for them. He's just this beefy four who can kind of score from all over. For Wagler in particular, this is going to challenge him in some areas that are key to kind of like how you see his value, because how he deals with the physicality of those guards, of Emmanuel Sharp, of Milos Usain, and of Kingston, it'll. I think it's going to color the way people feel about him. If he comes out and plays great, it. It's going to help him a lot. I. I think.
- [44:41]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, well, and then we have St. John's Duke. Why doesn't Boozer shoot that 12 footer?
- [44:48]
Kyle Mann
I knew you were gonna ask me that.
- [44:50]
Bill Simmons
I haven't texted that to you. I don't think either you did.
- [44:53]
Kyle Mann
You were complaining to me and Tate about it. You were like, look, in the pros,
- [44:56]
Bill Simmons
yeah, yeah, Boozer, that drives me crazy. I mean, I know. I guess he can add it, but I've never seen. I've never seen anybody take an open 12 footer and try to turn it into a layup into two guys. More than that, dude. Like, it doesn't seem to me like he has his what you need in the NBA like, that little, like, for. I always have this foul line jumper. You know, it's a lot of, like, stuff in traffic that he can do because he's playing against younger guys. I might have him three really?
- [45:29]
Kyle Mann
Okay.
- [45:30]
Bill Simmons
Which I think you have him. Two. You have Peterson. Three. You have Peterson?
- [45:34]
Kyle Mann
One.
- [45:36]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, good luck with that one. I'm out.
- [45:41]
Kyle Mann
You're totally out.
- [45:43]
Bill Simmons
I did this a couple weeks ago and I'm even more. The band said to me, it has to be number one. This is like, this would be crazy if he doesn't go number one. I'll be just stupefied by this.
- [45:56]
Kyle Mann
I think, I think, I think that Peterson is a vastly more talented shot maker. I think he's going to be a better playmaker. I think he's a more explosive athlete. When he's healthy, I'm a believer. I mean, that's the big argument that's going on in the nerd world versus,
- [46:13]
Bill Simmons
like when you say when he's healthy. We watch this guy scooting around screens trying to two hand block layups, two feet over the rim, and he looked plenty healthy to me. I just think he comes and goes during games and I didn't see any leadership from him at all. And granted, I get it. He's the kawhi. He's just the silent assassin. I get it. Those guys have succeeded. But I don't know, I watched him a bunch these last two months and I see it on paper, I see the case, but I also saw some stuff that really worried me and I don't think it gets better at the next level. And I don't think he looks like he did in the high school tapes last year.
- [46:58]
Kyle Mann
That's a big argument going on right now. Like I was going to say, the people who, the people who watched him coming up, like the grassroots people who were really invested in it, they, and it introduces all these counter points where people are just like, well, yeah, he's playing against better athletes now. And it's like he, he only played against great competition. Like, it wasn't like he was playing against like, you know, little sisters of the poor kind of schools. It's like he, I just think he's a super. This has been really odd and I think his personality probably didn't help. Like him, you know, it's probably hard for him to be the leader when he's been in and out and the way things have gone and how he fits into their offense. So. But I still, it's not that I don't like to banza, it's just like, I think that Peterson's separator skills are really, really special. Like, I, I'm not going to come off that. Yeah, but I could be wrong, but.
- [47:47]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, but if this was your job. You're the GM of a team, and if you mess this decision up, you're never going to have a GM job again. I don't think you're taking Peterson. I think it's too risky. You could talk yourself on all the pluses, but I just think ultimately you're going to be like, the Bance is going to be awesome. Like, he's just. The guy's a beast. There's no way he's not going to be good. You're going to pass him up and keep your fingers crossed. The other thing with Peterson, I'm glad you brought up, like, the. How he's quiet and blah, blah, blah. Kawhi was really quiet and the Kawhi thing worked well. Where did Kawhi go? He went to the Spurs. Like, you're basically in witness protection when you go with them because nobody. They have that whole family. When he was there, they had that whole family atmosphere. They had Duncan, they had Ginobi, they had Parker, they had Pop. He didn't have to have a personality, and he kind of had five years to grow into it, but we still don't know what his personality was. Then when it blows up there he goes to Toronto. He's like a hired gun. Didn't need to have personality. They had Van Vliet, Kyle Lowry, they had all these big. Nick Nurse goes to the Clippers, and we've seen it kind of come and go now. He's a veteran, respected. But I just wonder if you're a rookie coming in the league with huge expectations and you have the personality Peterson has and you're going to like Brooklyn or, I don't know, the Wizards, and people are like, this is our savior. And he's just doing this stuff game to game that we watched him do the last two months. I don't think it's going to go well.
- [49:22]
Kyle Mann
Do you think your leader has to be your best player? I don't have an answer. I'm just curious what you think.
- [49:27]
Bill Simmons
I don't think it has to be your best player. I think there's a responsibility that comes with being the guy that we've seen people either sink or swim with. And we saw Lamelo struggle with it for years, like he couldn't figure it out. Right. Nate, for that was. For different reasons. And it was finally, they had to put the right kind of people around him and he got matured, obviously, a little bit, but I just think fits so much. So if Peterson went to Indiana, I think that would be great. I could See them taking him first, that would make sense to me. But if we're talking like a shitty team, I would get really nervous with that. I'd rather have Debancer, I think if
- [50:02]
Kyle Mann
you were going to. I mean, I'm definitely leaning towards the basketball thing's working and I think the, the where you can throw some doubt in there. I think that's legitimate is what you're saying. I mean like the moment that Kawhi got away from that, that accountability and structure, it was like that's when granted the injury started and caused it. But I don't. Do you hear a lot of complaints about, you know, in Toronto, it's like, was he the leader of the Toronto team? I don't know. I'm sure somebody will hit me up and let me know, but it doesn't. Yeah.
- [50:30]
Bill Simmons
Well, the other thing with Peterson is it seemed like he was very well liked by everybody. Right. We didn't. We never heard and say my teammates like him, Coach. Everybody spoke highly of him. They seemed to think that he probably wasn't completely healthy the first part of the year. I just didn't think he showed enough other than flashes and potential. But he seemed healthy to me. Is where I kind of disagree with people down the stretch. I just thought the stuff he was doing athletically was pretty high level and he's just kind of floating out of these games and I didn't made me nervous. But I do, you know, I would take him over Boozer. Caleb Wilson's the wild card for me. Like that's the one I've become more and more fascinated by as I watch. Cause I just know what he is. I like when guys come in the league and it's like I know exactly what you are and I know, I know how it's going to work and I know you're going to put on 20 pounds of muscle. And I just know what this is. And he'll end up going fourth and he'll be a great pick. Right. I wouldn't take him ahead of Peterson.
- [51:30]
Kyle Mann
Right.
- [51:31]
Bill Simmons
But Peter Peterson's the one that gets you fired.
- [51:35]
Kyle Mann
It's a, it's risky. I mean you, I mean you just to quickly get the. You're saying that he was doing high level athletic stuff to me. And this is, this is. This argument I think is one of the major hinge points in the, in the whole draft is like our eyes. What we're seeing is you saw that as high level. And I'm saying I know what I've seen and I'm Just.
- [51:55]
Bill Simmons
You think there's another level beyond that?
- [51:56]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, I'm just kind of like, can I be disabused of, like, did I. Did I see what I saw? I think so. It's like Zion playing defense. In college, I was just like, great defensive upside. I think that's more of a per. Like a choice thing on his part.
- [52:09]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [52:09]
Kyle Mann
But with. With Wilson taking it to that, I mean, I think defensive upside in, like, the top four, I don't really feel like there's much question. I mean, I think that he has the potential to be, like, a special defender. And I think if you thread that needle and you say if the offensive outcomes in there is. There's any weirdness, like, let's say that Boozer bumps his head on, like, what he's able to expand and do, and it's like, is he a superstar? No, he's like a fulcrum that adds to good offense. And then Peter. Yeah. And then Devanza, maybe. Let's say he's more of a DeRozan. Not super efficient from 3. He's just more of, like, a tough shot maker. And then Wilson's an elite defender who can, like. I think he's going to shoot the ball. You can talk yourself into it, is what I'm saying. I mean, he does some things athletically, Bill, that are like. He's on another level, man. I mean, I have these freeze frames where he would jump from, like, the second block line on the lane, and then, like, the next frame, he's like, literally, his head is, like, over the rim. He just does things athletically that are. That are really separator special, like in among the top guys.
- [53:09]
Bill Simmons
I'm going to create a verb here. Not comparing to Giannis. It's a little Yannisy. If Giannisy is a verb, there's some Giannisi, like, freak, freak, freak athleticism with him. And that's what I mean. He's not. I don't think he's going to have the same. Giannis has got to be 7ft tall. And I think he'll probably end up being. Not as big as him, but he's a little. He's just. He's that special athletically. And I do wonder, like, if he could pass Boozer when teams are working these guys out. The thing I really like about Boozer, and you could see it in the game they. That Sienna game, when it was like, holy shit, are they gonna choke? And any close game he's in, there's a calmness to him. He's just clearly a guy who's been. He's like a 28 year old. 28 year old, like 7 year NBA veteran, but he's 19. But he's clearly just been in so many games since he was like 10 that he doesn't get nervous, doesn't get rattled. He'll make like a huge play and he doesn't even like do a fist pump like he's. And he's always like gathering the team. There's like some Duncan stuff with him that I like. He's just even keeled super competitive and never rattled.
- [54:23]
Kyle Mann
And to speak to the. Oh, I'm sorry, go ahead.
- [54:26]
Bill Simmons
No, that's it.
- [54:27]
Kyle Mann
To speak to the Caleb Wilson thing. I think the body type stuff that you're talking about is pretty, pretty spot on with. He has that elasticy, like he sits really low at a stance and then his like 0 to 60 explosiveness is crazy. Not to be overly simple, but he dunks a lot. He dunks a lot. I think he was, he was either close to or leading the country in dunks this year. So he gets easy stuff, the easy stuff that's accessible. Caleb Wilson gets it. You like that. You like to start from a simple premise like that, you know, and then. But he just doesn't quite handle the ball. It's just like Giannis was a special cross section of that. It's just like he just had guard skills in terms of like getting downhill. So that's. Yeah, that's kind of the difference there.
- [55:08]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. And Giannis was playing. Even you could see in the tapes from the Greek YMCA tapes like he was handling the ball a lot. Even back then. This kid is just runner, jumper, athlete, shop blocker, dunker finisher, but could be the best guy in the league at that stuff in five years. Who knows? It's a really good one. And then you have all these guards. This is great. And the draft's going to get weird because when we get to 5, 6, 7, 8, you know, we didn't do a good enough job about talking about actual college basketball. So we'll end on this, the patino thing because in college, in pro and college versus pro pro, you have the players, college football and basketball, the coaches kind of become, you know, the anchors of the sport in a lot of ways, the signature guys. And it was just so funny watching him in that Duke game, like Duke basically playing all the hits, being a huge asshole, being a motivator, being competitive. And then they, they get this winning, this winning play, which was just one of the worst Defensive possessions I've ever seen in my life. I don't. I don't. I just still don't understand what happened. How you give up a layup and he just kind of walked over the coach and shook his hand. I. There's just nobody. There's nobody, like, how compelling he is as a coach. Well, I grew up with Bobby Knight and those guys. He really feels like a throwback to this era when these coaches were these larger than life guys. So him going against Duke, I feel like he's. He's bringing everything in this game. Like, this will be it. This will be his, like, one battle after another PTA movie where he's like, we're going f imax, we're doing giant chase scene. I'm getting Del Toro, I'm getting Penn. Like, I just think he's emptying the chamber in this game.
- [56:54]
Kyle Mann
I've gotten it relayed to me that he is very, very confident that they have a legitimate shot to win it all. And I was just thinking about it and I was like, I mean, this team is really, really. I say all that to say I don't. I don't know that that's going to happen. If it does, I think it'll. It'll apply to this. What I'm going to say here is that I think he has a legitimate argument for best college coach ever. I think if you think about what he's done and where. I mean, and that. That spans all levels. It was like, when he was at, like, you know, Boston, I figured it was Boston.
- [57:23]
Bill Simmons
You said BU and you met.
- [57:25]
Todd McShay
Yeah, yeah.
- [57:28]
Kyle Mann
And then Providence, he goes to the Final Four. At Providence, he goes to, you know, he wins at Louisville. He could have. If he'd stayed at Kentucky, he would have been lockstep with Coach K. I don't think there's any question about that. And he leaves and comes back and he wins at Iona, you know, and now he's doing this at St. John's at this stage of his career. I just think that. And then you think about the way that he was a pioneer. He was a forward thinker in terms of college, but his teams were shoot 25 threes in the mid-90s. Like, he was always ahead of
- [57:56]
Bill Simmons
stuff in the 90s was. He was probably his teams did it the best out of anybody other than maybe Arkansas.
- [58:02]
Kyle Mann
Yeah, this. I mean, this is the stuff, like, I know when you. You probably had your. Your, like, hooks in you years as a basketball fan. What were the, like, the hooks in you years for you? Celtics Wise like the teams that you remember. Was it like what year are we talking about?
- [58:15]
Bill Simmons
Late mid, late 70s, like from the moment I was going. But yeah, when I first started understanding basketball, which is probably somewhere in the 80s. But college was the best it's ever been during those times. Right. You had so many great athletes and so many lottery picks staying three, four years in college. And a lot of the coaches. I remember Guy Lewis was the Houston coach. They had the best athletes and he was just terrible. He was an awful coach. Right. And so when you actually saw a good coach, it really stood out. And Pitino was one of those. Was like, wow, this guy's, this guy's. And honestly Coach K was a good coach. As much as we like to make
- [58:54]
Kyle Mann
fun of him, I would never, I
- [58:56]
Bill Simmons
would never begrudge Coach K was a good coach.
- [58:59]
Kyle Mann
I just want to go on record.
- [59:00]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Dean Smith was always. That got taste on here. Dean Smith, I was always a little suspect of. I, I think there was some, there's some shakiness with him like that, that Perkins, Jordan, Kenny Smith team not. I forget where they. When they got ousted but that was insane that that team didn't make the Final four. Michael Jordan in his junior year couldn't make the final four, had some talent, but. Yeah, but Patino, you're right. Like he's, he's definitely a one on one. I wanted Holy Cross to get him when he was in career purgatory and he went to Iona. I thought that would have been like an amazing. Yeah, let's ride this dude for three years and have him turn it around.
- [59:39]
Kyle Mann
He went to Greece and won. He went over like. He's just, he's just a dude who has like established process. He went everywhere.
- [59:45]
Bill Simmons
Boston. He was terrible the entire time in Boston.
- [59:50]
Kyle Mann
He was probably, he's probably looking at the like, you know, the, the effort era of the NBA and being like, are you fucking kidding me?
- [59:58]
Bill Simmons
Right? We're doing this now, right? Yeah. We'd have love coach a team like, like a team like Phoenix would have been his dream. Like Devin Booker and 14 guys who just try really hard. Yeah, they would. He would have loved that.
- [60:11]
Kyle Mann
So you're talking about him going through the game and it's like him just playing the hits of all the things. It's like every, everybody that I've talked to that's played for him. It really goes on and on about how mellow he is now because you know you're talking about Bobby Knight. It's just like he absolutely was Bobby Knight. But Just didn't get the same attention because I don't think he did it publicly as much. But yeah, man, I think he's got an argument for the best ever. Aside from the messiness at Louisville that he had that went on, do you think.
- [60:36]
Bill Simmons
Certainly messy to say the least. Do you think they have a best player in the game possibility for this
- [60:41]
Kyle Mann
game for St. John's yeah. I mean if Zubi edge of or goes wild. I mean he's a guy that is like a toolsy. Like a team could steal him. Does a lot of stuff. Well, I mean he's the guy who left Kansas because self wouldn't play him and it was one of the all time. You should. Yeah, I figured he did a big fu game. Yeah, that. I mean that's in play. Yeah. The Edge of four is their best player. They've got some guys that can get going.
- [61:03]
Bill Simmons
Carries himself like the best player. He can't shoot threes, but there's an end of the game wherewithal to him that I just. You just watch and your eyes get drawn to guys when you're watching. Like if my wife was watching, she would just think he was the best guy in the game watching it. Not knowing anybody on either team. He does pass the test. Like I could see him throwing some haymakers at. At Duke and then I don't know. I thought the Sienna game was like significant. Like there's a recipe with Duke where you can see them get a little. Little discombobulated. Like obviously their point guard situation. But I think the boozer brother has been great. Like for what? For where, where. Where we thought we were with him a couple months ago. Like I, I think that guy's. It could be a first round, first round pick possibly. Maybe if he came out like late first round.
- [61:54]
Kyle Mann
I don't know if I'd go. I don't know if I'd go first round for him. I mean I could see him coming back another year and playing on the team. They. They're going to be good and again next year. But I, I think Size wise, yeah, St. John's has a lot to throw at them and athleticism wise, I mean they've got Dylan Mitchell who's really big and long that they can throw at. Isaiah Evans, the big lanky like movement shooter for Duke. I didn't know if your eye was with Dome. Sar is the other dude that I figured that you would like for Duke. The guy who. He looks like a giraffe. I mean if he hits threes. I mean he's gonna go. He's gonna be like a first rounder too. They got a lot of guys.
- [62:26]
Bill Simmons
I was shocked. The guy I probably liked the most was, was the boozer brother. Like just for the guys that I was pleasantly surprised that I liked. I just think he, I could see him being in the NBA for like 10 years. He's another one where I know what he is. He's like when Tre Jones just kept landing on teams playing 20 minutes. I think he's one of those. And I do wonder if he comes out. If a team thinks like, we'll take like the Pacers, we'll take, we'll take Cam third and then we'll get his brother in the second round and we'll bring them together because I do think they have something pretty, you know, pretty unique. But that game's going to be great. I can't wait. Kyle, man, this is going to be fantastic.
- [63:04]
Kyle Mann
I can't wait to neglect my family and watch basketball all day. It's going to be.
- [63:08]
Bill Simmons
The other thing is NBA's gotten really good too because we have 10 teams that don't try and 20 teams that do. And anytime any of the two 20 teams play, it's like Detroit and the Lakers last night, like that game was really entertaining, you know, and we have a lot of teams jacking for playoff position. So. Anyway, all right, comment. Don't get divorced. Try to keep it together this week and say hi to everybody over there.
- [63:34]
Kyle Mann
Appreciate it, man.
- [63:35]
Bill Simmons
Thanks. So every Wednesday I decided to look through the NBA slate, make an NBA parlay. The rules would be whatever I want. We were doing this because on FanDuel on Wednesdays you can use a profit boost token and increase your potential winnings before you place your bet. But it is baseball season this week and we're kicking off opening day. Obviously. Love having baseball back and me and Sal and House and Hench, we did a little over under wins parlay I want to tell you about before the season kicks off where we have the Athletics have to win 70 plus games. The Red Sox have to win 80 plus games, the Mariners have to win 90 plus games. And last but not least, the big ones, the Orioles. 90 plus games. This is the, the, our, our sleeper team to be a real contender in the American League. So you throw all those together as a four team futures parlay and it's plus 7 32. So I'm, I'm foregoing my NBA bet this week and I'm recommending that as my future. We'll bring back the NBA next week. But it will be. It'll be. Maybe they'll even put it up on the Sportsbook app. Either way, don't forget to use a profit boost token for your NBA bets on Wednesday. FanDuel play your game this episode is brought to you by State Farm Upsets Buzzer beaters game changing plays what happens on the court keeps us on our toes and life isn't any different. That's where State Farm comes in. With over 19,000 neighborhood agents for when you want to talk to a real person and the easy to use digital tools, State Farm is there to help when facing the unpredictable. Because in life's uncertain moments, big or small, you need to know someone is ready to assist. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Price and eligibility vary by state. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. March is here and Uber Eats is delivering deals all month long every game day. We got some games coming up. Score big savings on all the delicious food you need to turn your couch into center court and fuel your fandom as there's some tournament games coming. Whether you're ordering in or hosting the whole crew, UberEats is serving up deals on wings, burgers, pizza from your favorite restaurants, plus game day snacks from top stores. Bracket Busted still holding strong Cinderella story or top seed? Well, however the madness unfolds, these deals will keep going all month long. Visit the game day hub on Uber Eats for all the latest deals. Start saving today. This episode is brought to you by Venmo. Supporting your team never gets old, but here's something new. You can now pay for your game day wings and rep your team at the same time. How? By getting your college colors on your card. Score more with the college branded Venmo debit card. Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash. Sign up@venmo.com collegecard the Venmo MasterCard is issued by the Bancorp Bank NA Select Schools available Venmo Stash Bundle Terms and exclusions apply at Venmo me stash terms max $100 cash back per month all right, Todd McSha is here. You can listen and watch the McShay show, which is now on Netflix as well. Or you can watch his video on Spotify. We launched Tell the audience what you launched this week. This is pretty exciting.
- [67:00]
Todd McShay
I'm pumped man, and I appreciate your support. I've told you that privately, but I also want to share it publicly. Like the fact that I came to you. I don't know, eight months ago and said, there's this project I want to do. We kind of mention I fueled the draft tracker for ESPN for a long time, and I always thought it was. It was good product, but we could do it better. And we're kind of in phase one of what we just launched yesterday, which is the. The McShay NFL Draft Board, which is basically a micro site connected to the ringer. It's the ringer.com McShay and it's the initial launch. It's the top 100 prospects, top 50 evaluations. It's got the Mach 3.0 on there. It's just. It's everything housed in one place.
- [67:44]
Bill Simmons
Mensch lives there. We forgot to mention. Mensch is actually just living inside it virtually. No, I truly virtual Mensch is in there.
- [67:53]
Todd McShay
He's in there and he's. And he's writing, hopefully right this moment is writing a report on a guard from, like, Iowa State. You know, like, that's the vision I have that he's always just kind of grinding in that version of Mensch. So we're. We're really excited about it. And finally a place to. To kind of house everything. I've been doing this 26 years, Bill. I've always kind of dreamed of being able to create a database.
- [68:15]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. As I've.
- [68:16]
Todd McShay
I've directly dealt with Catapult used to be exos, and they had multiple NFL teams. And I've talked to general managers and all the things that go into their database with the comparisons that they pull out with the history and kind of the trends for each position, each workout drill. We're going to build that together to make it as it'll be the only thing in the market that will mirror that of an NFL scouting department and what they use for their draft. Draft.
- [68:44]
Bill Simmons
I'm excited. The best thing about the draft, and this is the case for the NBA, too, is being able to then look back and forward and who does this guy remind you of? Who does that guy? And the comparisons the NBA has. The NBA has some great ones right now with this draft that's coming up. And then with football, it's the most fun with quarterbacks. We don't really have as many fun quarterbacks to talk about in this draft, but this does lead to my hot take.
- [69:10]
Todd McShay
Okay.
- [69:11]
Bill Simmons
I thought of this this week as espn, our old employer, was trying to get a Are we sure Ty Simpson is the best quarterback? And I was like, this is the most boring draft we've had this decade. This. The. We're Trying to manufacture.
- [69:24]
Todd McShay
That's a direct insult, Bill.
- [69:26]
Bill Simmons
No, no, no. I'm saying like from a storyline standpoint, we just don't have the drama yet. And I don't think it's going to be Ken Ty Simpson, catch Mendoza. But the drama comes right now. I feel like it's boring. Where's the drama? What's going to happen? What are you looking at as like, oh, this is going to be good. Ooh, this is going to be juicy. Where is it? What's going to happen?
- [69:49]
Todd McShay
I think it's Jeremiah Love. He's the best player in the draft, but he's a running back. And you look at, you know, I don't know that it equates to the NBA, but you look at the money and it doesn't. There isn't a correlation, an exact correlation. But you look at the running back position. If I take a running back and you know, like last year, Ashton Genti was a 6 overall pick. You're now paying him as if he's the 8th best running back in the league by veteran salary and you could
- [70:20]
Bill Simmons
have blocked for him and you're paying him like is the 8th best running back in the league. That's the worst case scenario.
- [70:25]
Todd McShay
And even if you could block for him, you're having to pay him based off of what the running back salary structure is and the, you know, the annual per or the average per year of the top five guys, whatever it is. Running backs the second lowest on that chart.
- [70:40]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [70:41]
Todd McShay
Where it starts with quarterback, then it's edge rusher, surprisingly, it's now wide receivers third, then you get down to the offensive tackle spot. So if I can get an offensive tackle or an edge rusher and pay them that that money, which is eighth in the running back list. But you're talking, you know, 30, $40 million per year for a veteran on their second contract.
- [71:02]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [71:03]
Todd McShay
That's a massive difference. And that's how teams you look at the Seahawks, right. JSN still on his rookie deal. Kenneth Walker still on his rookie deal. When they win the super bowl, they can then take all that extra money in the salary cap and go put it in different places like a deep defensive line. And so, so that's the struggle with Jeremiah Love. And you've got a team in the Cardinals that could use him at three. You've got the Titans that would love to pair them with Cam Ward at 4, the Giants at 5 with John Harbaugh and the Commanders at 7. But I don't know that any of those teams in the top five want to spend that capital. It'll be interesting. I think the watch starts at five with the Giants, but everyone I talked to in the league says if he's not the best, he's the second best player in the draft. And that guy's not going to get out of the top five. But where's he going to go?
- [71:50]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, there's no way this can happen in the NBA. The only real way it can happen is what we have this year where you have the top four and then basically the next five guys are guards in some order and a couple of them are point guards. And there just might be a situation where like the fifth, sixth, seventh team already has a point guard. They don't need a second point guard.
- [72:13]
Todd McShay
Right.
- [72:13]
Bill Simmons
But it's. But by the board it's like, whoa, we're going to pass up Acuff. He just dragged his team in the final four and he might be Kyrie Irving. We're not going to take him because we have Darius Garland. That's the only way I can think of it. I was talking to a Giants fan today who is one of the funniest things and this is why I think the draft will eventually become way less boring and actually pretty funny. You had the jets and the Giants, both of whom are like, all their fans are like, you know, the Giants are a five. The fans are like, ah, we should probably take love, right? But then everyone who takes a running back in the top five, it's a disaster. Downs is another one. Nobody wants to take a safety that high. You have him on your big board, you have him fifth. But as you, as you laid out the Seahawks over and over again, we see these teams, they stack the offensive and the defensive lines and then build out. And if you had the quarterback and the two lines, the rest is a lot easier. And then over and over again, we see these teams in the top seven, eight. Yeah, I'll take a safety. It's like you can find safeties anywhere. So why don't these teams try to marry the Seahawks and actually just try to build out the lines?
- [73:23]
Todd McShay
The Eagles are another example, right?
- [73:25]
Bill Simmons
Yes.
- [73:25]
Todd McShay
The last two super bowl winners, right? This year's unique. I can't remember. I've been doing this, like I said, 26 years. I can't remember a year in which you can make an actual strong argument that the three best players are a running back, a safety, and off ball linebacker in Sonny Styles.
- [73:43]
Bill Simmons
Like three of the positions we've learned to save money on over the years.
- [73:47]
Todd McShay
Right. And Then our Val Reese, who we're calling an edge, was kind of a hybrid edge off ball linebacker.
- [73:53]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [73:54]
Todd McShay
And if you're so. And you're projecting. Yeah, he's going to be the next Micah Parsons. That's. But the tape doesn't show that he's there. And Micah. Didn't you know, Micah was. Went into the Cowboys locker room as a rookie as an off ball linebacker. There were some injuries. He went to edge. And we know the story, how it played out from there. So it's. That part's fascinating because I talked to gm, but we did six interviews at the combine.
- [74:18]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [74:18]
Todd McShay
With general managers and every single one of them. And I talked to a bunch of other ones in the league. It's this mantra of, you don't pass up on a Hall of Fame player in the draft. You take the best players.
- [74:29]
Bill Simmons
Are there hall of Fame players in this draft other than maybe.
- [74:32]
Todd McShay
I mean, Sonny Styles could become a Hall of Fame linebacker.
- [74:35]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Okay.
- [74:36]
Todd McShay
He is. He is today. And Jeremiah Love could become a Hall of Fame back and Caleb Downs could become a Hall of Fame safety. They're. They're all that good. But on. It's kind of talking out of both sides of your mouth that you don't pass up on a Hall of Fame player, a guy that you have that high on your board with that grade. But then you look at the economics of it and you say, this doesn't work. You look at running back. Every running back taken in the top 10, not one. Go back to Todd Gurley. We're talking about, you know, Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Ashton, Genty Saquon. None of them have won a Super bowl with the team that they were
- [75:18]
Bill Simmons
drafted by or made the super bowl with the team there.
- [75:21]
Todd McShay
Gurley made a Super bowl later on. But. But yeah, not one of them actually won a Super Bowl. And, and yeah, only. And it's been a long time since the running backs drafted in the top 10. I think Gurley was 10 overall too. Wound up even making it to a Super bowl. So.
- [75:36]
Bill Simmons
So Peterson was the last. I don't regret this at all. Running back taking that high.
- [75:42]
Todd McShay
I'd have to look at it, but I think you're probably right.
- [75:44]
Bill Simmons
And they didn't make the super bowl with them.
- [75:46]
Todd McShay
And that was one of my first years. So that was like. What Was that, like 2000?
- [75:50]
Bill Simmons
It was mid 2000. Yeah. Somewhere in the mid 2000s. And I guess Tomlinson would be another one that you don't regret taking him where they took him.
- [75:57]
Todd McShay
Right, right.
- [75:58]
Bill Simmons
But odds are you're going to end the other way. I mean, the Genti thing was instructive because this is why we love the draft. The longer you stare at it and stare at it, you get seduced and you're the Raiders and you can't block. You're a complete mess. You bring in a new coach and you have Genti and it's like, you know what? This guy might be awesome. And then all of a sudden you're taking him at six and he spends the year, like, running for his life and getting tackled by four guys.
- [76:25]
Todd McShay
You don't have an offensive line, you don't have a quarterback, you don't have receivers. It's just. It's not the right spot for him.
- [76:30]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [76:30]
Todd McShay
Now. Now Washington, do you. The Giants, I feel like they've solidified their offensive line.
- [76:38]
Bill Simmons
I like the Giant spot for him, even if it seems a little high, because I think they have a lot of talent. Like, they're not a typical top five team with new coach and all the blue chippers and guys coming back from injuries and they might actually have a quarterback and they're going to have an easier schedule and you put him in and if he's like a superstar right away, that might be like, if they were picking ninth, you would say, of course, do it, but fifth, it feels a tiny bit high, but I think
- [77:03]
Todd McShay
the Giants and the Titans are two teams that are going to be a lot better next year, that are going to make the biggest jumps. Now, obviously, the Chiefs are sitting there at number nine, and we don't know what's going to. What's happening with Patrick and, you know, is he going to be back to form and everything's going to be fine. But, but of the, let's say, the top eight teams, I think the two that could make the biggest jumps will be Tennessee and the Giants. I really do.
- [77:23]
Bill Simmons
What about Washington at 7? Because that, in my head, I feel like that's where he's going.
- [77:28]
Todd McShay
How did that happen last year, man? You know what I mean? Like, I want you to think back to that, that NFC playoff run with Jaden Daniels. And it was like, oh, my gosh, Right? You know, like, he's better than Caleb, he's better than Drake. What could go that new ownership, new staff, new, you know, like, everything feels right. And to see what the product was. The end of last season in what, eight months, nine months was pretty wild.
- [77:58]
Bill Simmons
Hard schedule. Daniel's got hurt. They had old guys that, you know, that can be a 50, 50 coin flip. A lot of the old guys either got old or got hurt. You know, the momentum starts swinging the other way. All of a sudden you're 6 and 11.
- [78:13]
Todd McShay
Yeah.
- [78:14]
Bill Simmons
But they.
- [78:14]
Todd McShay
They absolutely could.
- [78:15]
Bill Simmons
They could make it. By the way, my worst case scenario for the. For the Patriots. Yeah, You're.
- [78:20]
Todd McShay
You're down on next year already. I'm. I'm noticing that schedule.
- [78:23]
Bill Simmons
The schedule is brutal. And I do think they overachieved a little bit, but. And I didn't love the free agency was fine. It was a lot of sideways stuff. I don't. I don't know if you could say they were better now. We'll see the draft.
- [78:36]
Todd McShay
But don't you think A.J. brown's going to be a Patriot?
- [78:41]
Bill Simmons
You're doing this to me.
- [78:43]
Todd McShay
Yeah.
- [78:44]
Bill Simmons
They have to wait till after June 1st. He loves Rabel. He grew up rooting for the Patriots. There's only one other suitor.
- [78:53]
Todd McShay
The Rams.
- [78:54]
Bill Simmons
The Rams. And it's like if you're the Eagles, maybe you're talking yourself into. I'd rather have next year's pats first because maybe they're not going to be that good. Maybe they know what you're going to
- [79:07]
Todd McShay
give an NFC opponent in the playoffs. A.J. brown.
- [79:12]
Bill Simmons
Do we know why he wasn't nearly as good as he normally was last year?
- [79:17]
Todd McShay
I mean, the whole. He. I mean, there's multiple layers. It's not a talent thing. It's. He's. How do I put this kindly? Can. Can flow. Can fluctuate a lot.
- [79:30]
Bill Simmons
He's a fluctuator.
- [79:32]
Todd McShay
He's a fluctuator.
- [79:33]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [79:34]
Todd McShay
And then. And then you, like, the whole offense was a mess and the timing wasn't right and the quarterback play got frustrating. And I think it started with the. The coaching and the. In the system, the scheme and all that. So I think it's. Yeah. I will be more surprised if he's not a patriot by July 1st than I will be if he's somewhere else.
- [79:55]
Bill Simmons
So you're looking at that like. So they signed Dobbs.
- [79:58]
Todd McShay
I just did my mock draft, assuming that he's going to be a Patriot.
- [80:03]
Bill Simmons
Okay. Because that was another thing that made this draft really fun, is there's just really good receivers and we might have a situation where, oh, it's low. Teams are grabbing players and there's two receivers left, and one of them just starts dropping because everybody has their receiver. And now six more picks have gone and nobody needs a receiver. And all of a sudden, somebody awesome falls to 31. It is one of those Games we can see a record.
- [80:28]
Todd McShay
We could see two times. I think it was 2022 and 2020. What is the number? I want to say 13 receivers have gone in the first two rounds. That's the most I went back to 1967, the common draft era. I think there could be 13 again this year and possibly 14. I think in the first two rounds. In the first two rounds, there's, there's no Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, you know, Larry Fitzgerald, Bar Chase. But. But when you get to pick, it could start at 6 with, with Cleveland, with, with Carnell Tate from Ohio State. But from that point on, like Makai Lemon from USC is an absolute dog. Jordan Tyson reminds me of Stefan Diggs coming out of Arizona State. Has some injuries. Could go make mid first, but could be a steal. Omar Cooper Jr. From Indiana, really good. He would be a perfect fit for McVeigh in that system. I look at even his teammate. Elijah Surat is a second round pick, is a big X on the outside. Denzel Boston's another big X out of Washington. Notre Dame's got one in Malachi Fields. I mean, KC Concepcion's a great after the catch and super quick and fast. There's just. I mean, I could, I could literally sit here and list 13, but I don't think it's really good for podcasting.
- [81:48]
Bill Simmons
But I've been, I've been scouting some of them. By the way, I had. I do have some thoughts.
- [81:53]
Todd McShay
Then give me some.
- [81:55]
Bill Simmons
I really like Cooper.
- [81:57]
Todd McShay
I do too.
- [81:58]
Bill Simmons
Because he's. He's basically between. If you look at. And I've looked at all of them if you. He's usually between like 13. There's been a couple where he's been at the bottom of the round just because people are moving other receivers up. I don't know where he's going to go, but he's just like, there's no way he's not going to be good. That's the one where I'm just like, what are we doing?
- [82:18]
Todd McShay
I think The Ravens are 14, right?
- [82:20]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [82:22]
Todd McShay
I'd be surprised if he gets past it. Depends on where the first one goes, right? Because it's going to go Tate and then either Lemon or Tyson. Those three will should be the first three off the board. Wouldn't shock me if Omar Cooper Jr. Went ahead of one of those guys.
- [82:35]
Bill Simmons
But you have him 17th on your board. You have the three guys in front of him.
- [82:41]
Todd McShay
So 17 would probably be the parachute, but I think he could go 13 or 14.
- [82:46]
Bill Simmons
I really do like him. I don't some of the other ones. I'm so scarred with the Pats because they've missed on so many receivers. Like, you go on forever. But there's some other. Like, one of the things that I like about this draft, if you're going glass half full on this draft being. Being really fun, there's teams where I'm just like. I look at Cleveland, I'm like, you guys need everything. I don't even know, like, if they take a receiver at six, like, what's that going to do? You don't. You lost every offensive lineman you had in free agency. And then I thought I had a few, but. Yes, but I mean, you're completely revamped offensive line and this bizarre quarterback situation with Sanders and Watson, and I was like, if they. Like, if they took. You have. You have Tate ninth on your big board, but if they took him sixth, I would just immediately feel bad for him. It's like, man, that sucks. I know. It's nice to be playing home, but what a shady situation, you know? Same thing. If you get picked by the Dolphins, it's like, cool, I'm not gonna have a quarterback.
- [83:47]
Todd McShay
Those are. The Dolphins are different because they brought in Malik and then just decided to trash the rest of the roster.
- [83:53]
Kyle Mann
Right?
- [83:53]
Bill Simmons
They brought in Malik. Malik with no. Anything. It's like, all right, fingers crossed.
- [83:59]
Todd McShay
Yeah, for his safety. But.
- [84:02]
Bill Simmons
But there.
- [84:03]
Todd McShay
Here's another storyline that I'm kind of fascinated by. Next year's draft.
- [84:07]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [84:07]
Todd McShay
I haven't pitched this to you yet, but I really want to. The Washington D.C. lawn. Like Arch and Dante and like, I just think there's. We could make a. I want you there in Washington with us.
- [84:20]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [84:20]
Todd McShay
I want. I want it to be a scene. Anyway, next year's draft has a chance to be one of, if not the best quarterback drafts of all time. But the thing that kind of is getting overlooked is there's a ton of other talent, too. So you look at this from a. Like the jets for a fact. I know, like, they. One of their deals for the first. You know, when they would get multiple extra. They dealt Quinn and defensive tackle. They dealt. They dealt Sauce Gardner, cornerback.
- [84:48]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [84:48]
Todd McShay
Their whole plan was, listen, we don't want the one this year. We'll take a two this year. Give us the one next year. So now they've got two first rounders this year. They've got eight picks in the first two rounds this year and next year combined, but they got the three first rounders next year. Yeah, they're one of a few Teams where it's. We're. We're operating under 20, 26. Like, yeah, we want to win some games, and we want the fans to be happy and the owners to be happy. We're building for 27, and that's. That's why you bring in a Geno. They're going to win enough games where it doesn't completely implode and Woody doesn't fire everybody, but they're going to be in a position where they can get
- [85:23]
Bill Simmons
their quarterback before you bring them in to lose all your games. Did you see him last year? I mean, if you. If you want to be bad, I would start with 2025. Gino repeating it.
- [85:33]
Todd McShay
I promise you. The mantra was, we want to win enough to keep this job and everything. Like it doesn't blow up, but. But not enough where we have to package too many picks to go move up and get our guy. Yeah. Then you've got Arizona. Everyone's saying Ty Simpson now. Maybe Arizona trades up into the first round or maybe they move out of three. If a team wants to move up for Jeremiah Love or whoever, it would be Arizona, though, it kind of looks like if they don't, if it's not Ty Simpson, they're. They're working towards 2027. Right. So. And the Cleveland Browns, you just mentioned, that's what got me thinking. The Cleveland Browns, like, let's get it. Let's get a wide receiver. Let's get CARNELL Tate at 6 and Caleb Lomu, the offensive tackle, at 24.
- [86:13]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [86:14]
Todd McShay
And let's. Let's. Let's see what Shador does. And if. If he has this miraculous season and it looks like he's our guy, great, that's a win. But probably we're going to address quarterback in 27 as well. So that's three organizations right there that I think very much are kind of working towards not tanking for a couple of them, but working towards 20, 27 already.
- [86:36]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, we don't use tanking in football because there's less games and it's so violent, and these guys aren't. It's not like what we're doing in the NBA, which has been a complete disgrace, but there are things you can do, and we've seen it. We. You know, we saw with Vegas last year where you're shutting down Crosby when he wants to play.
- [86:53]
Todd McShay
Yes.
- [86:54]
Bill Simmons
There's a couple of those moments you have. I think the Browns would have the easiest path to do that, because either quarterback choice is going to be pretty. Pretty bad for them. Miami, I Don't really understand why they torpedoed the roster and signed Malik Willis. That didn't make sense. That honestly didn't make sense to me. I get the torpedo in the roster and throwing away the year, but then why are you also making like a pretty sizable bet on this guy to be a franchise quarterback for you, but then you're just giving him the worst car possible to drive? I don't. What are you going to learn from that next year? Nothing.
- [87:29]
Todd McShay
Yeah, I mean, thankfully for him, he's. He's mobile and hopefully can. Can endure it. And I mean, honestly, what is it? John Eric Sullivan, who got the. John Eric Sullivan, the new gm. Like, I actually believe he. He's doing all the right things. And it's almost like you want to put Malik on the shelf and play him in like six, six, eight games and protect him, and so he's ready for 20, 27. But. But it is. It's challenging to look at that roster and see where you're getting five, six wins, you know?
- [88:00]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. All right, so other storylines, we have the Sonny Stiles thing, who is the combine superhero this year? Was he the big winner of combine superhero cape, the one that got everyone the most excited?
- [88:12]
Todd McShay
Yes. Also a great player, though.
- [88:14]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I mean, he. Everyone came out of that like, holy shit, what is this?
- [88:18]
Todd McShay
Well, he's different, man.
- [88:19]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [88:19]
Todd McShay
And he's. And he's. And he's like a special human being, too. So you're getting. You're getting. I got to talk to one, one decision maker. We'll call him, who's like, this guy's going to be CEO of a company. Like, he's. He's that level. He's. And. And this. In this league, it's like he can play the overhang and cover slot guys. He can.
- [88:38]
Bill Simmons
He.
- [88:39]
Todd McShay
He actually, if you look at his production as a pass rusher, he had about half as many edge rush opportunities as Arvel Reese over the last two years, but he was just. He was on par in terms of sacks, pressures, all that with what Arvell did. And so I'm not saying he's going to be that guy, but I do think his role is not going to be that of your traditional off ball linebacker. So I would take him in the top five.
- [89:02]
Bill Simmons
I was going to ask, would you. Would you take him two or three over the other choices?
- [89:09]
Todd McShay
I actually would, yeah.
- [89:11]
Bill Simmons
It seems like he would. I could tell from reading you. It seems like Reese feels flimsy to me where it's like, best case scenario, Michael Parsons. And we've seen these guys where it's like sometimes the worst case scenario, you're like, oof, I can't believe it turned out like this. It just seems like he's almost like a coin flip, which I don't want to do at number two. I'd rather, I want sure things at number two.
- [89:34]
Todd McShay
I mean, he really, he is, he's a cyborg. You know, just the power, the speed, the length, all of it. His pass, like, there's a lot of great flashes and he got, he got a lot of reps as an edge rusher this year. The problem is if he, if he goes full time in the NFL at edger and he's not as big as Sonny Styles. Yeah. If he goes full time at edge and it works out where he's just, okay, now you're dropping him back to off ball linebacker or having to play this hybrid role. He's not great. I mean, he's good, he's okay, but he's not great dropping into coverage like Sonny is. And so, so what do you have? And so, yeah, there's a lot I
- [90:13]
Bill Simmons
want to bet on where Sonny, you know, you know what he is, you know what he's going to be, you know, he's going to be awesome.
- [90:18]
Todd McShay
Former safety playing linebacker has shown that he can rush the passer at times in this league. With all the personnel packages and trying to keep the same 11 on the field and want to be multiple. I just, I think he has more value Sonny Styles does than, than even five years ago in the league.
- [90:36]
Bill Simmons
So is it crazy to think if, if he's there at 5, the Giants just say, fuck it, let's add him to our defense.
- [90:43]
Todd McShay
I would take Sonny Styles if I was the Giants.
- [90:46]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [90:46]
Todd McShay
Even though they brought in Tremaine Edmonds, their run defense has been atrocious. They want to be a physical team under Harbaugh. Yeah, you like Jeremiah Love, but maybe you draft another back to go with, with Scatterboo and Tyrone Tracy. I just, I think Sonny Styles would bring that. And then you think about the, what they have at edge. Right. I think he would, he would take that defense to another level. I, I, the Giants are in a good spot. Like they kind of can't screw it up.
- [91:14]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [91:14]
Todd McShay
If you take Jeremiah Love, yeah, you deal with the economics of it, but he's the identity of what they want to be with a mobile quarterback with a back who took the league by storm and scatter boo. But that can't, that's not sustainable. His Running style, like one season injured. Now he's coming off of an injury.
- [91:34]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [91:35]
Todd McShay
So that would be a. That's a win. Sonny Styles is a win. Caleb Downs is worth the pick, but I'd be more excited about Sonny Styles if I'm being honest.
- [91:44]
Bill Simmons
And it's the most fun if Love goes seven with Daniels with the rejuvenated commander's team and. And us in mid September being like, holy shit, Daniels. And love the speed and watch these teams try to figure out blah, blah, blah. Yep, that'd be fun.
- [92:00]
Todd McShay
Yep, that would be a lot of fun.
- [92:01]
Bill Simmons
I can't think of a real fun jet scenario. Unfortunately.
- [92:06]
Todd McShay
It's going to be take. Take an edge rusher. It's going to be Bailey or Arvella is my guess at 2.
- [92:12]
Bill Simmons
And then just be 6.
- [92:13]
Todd McShay
It's 16. Take wide receiver.
- [92:17]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, just.
- [92:19]
Todd McShay
But the beauty is like they. What do they have 11 overall picks. Like they're again, they're building for 20, 27. This is about putting pieces in to get ready when you do insert that quarterback next year and hopefully don't have to use all three picks to go get them that they'll be ready to roll. You know what's going to be fascinating? This is over a year. This is a year and 30 days away. Yeah. Will Arch go to the jets if the jets have the first overall pick.
- [92:48]
Bill Simmons
Oh, the repeat of the Eli. Oh, wow.
- [92:53]
Todd McShay
Yep.
- [92:54]
Bill Simmons
I don't know why it doesn't happen. More like Ace Bailey kind of passive aggressively tried. His team, tried to do it when he wanted to go to Washington and Utah picked him, but he just ended up going. But we've never seen. He did. Yeah, we've never seen anybody. Just. Especially now with the nil stuff. I don't know exactly what the rules would be of somebody just being like, yeah, I don't like the team that drafted me. I'm going back. Because I don't know if there are any rules in college sports anymore, but I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often where a guy's just like, yeah, no thanks. Danny Ferry did it in 1990 with the Clippers. He was just like, I'm out. Francis did it with the Vancouver Grizzlies. And then we had Eli do it and Elway do it, but the number's less than 10. In my lifetime of guys who have just said, yeah, I'm not going there. No, thanks.
- [93:45]
Todd McShay
It'll.
- [93:46]
Bill Simmons
That'll.
- [93:47]
Todd McShay
That will be fascinating because we're tracking towards, you know, maybe It's Miami at 1, but the jets are very likely to be one of the top. The jets are likely to have a top five pick. And, and, and if they, if they don't own the first pick, then they have the capital to go get that first pick. If it's a team that doesn't need a quarterback.
- [94:07]
Bill Simmons
So here's the thing. If it was like my son or your son, and they were in this situation and the two teams looking at them were the jets or the Browns, knowing everything we know, I'd be like, you're not playing there. We're holding out.
- [94:21]
Todd McShay
If I had any kind of control,
- [94:22]
Bill Simmons
yeah, we're holding out. You're not going to Cleveland. No, thank you. It's not happening. Same for the Jets. Like it's no, like we'll wait them out. Eventually they're going to have to trade you. What are they going to do? Just get nothing for the asset? Let's be patient. Hopefully we'll have a 20 year career. You're not starting your career. There's like, prove to us you can have a competent franchise for a year before we. I send my son there. I'm amazed it doesn't happen more often.
- [94:47]
Todd McShay
Yeah, next year's gonna be that. That part will be intriguing to see where the jets wind up in the in the first round draft order.
- [94:54]
Bill Simmons
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- [98:59]
Todd McShay
I actually have heard that if Jeremiah Love somehow gets to nine, which I don't think he will, but if he gets to nine, even though they sign Kenneth Walker, that they would still entertain drafting him there, which would be fascinating.
- [99:13]
Bill Simmons
Right? Wow.
- [99:14]
Todd McShay
It would kind of signal a whole new Chiefs offensive mindset. But more realistic is, are we taking an edge rusher? Are we taking Monsieur Delaine, the LSU cornerback who's clearly the best cornerback after we just let our. Our top two corners walk out the building.
- [99:33]
Bill Simmons
Well, they have two first though, so maybe they get the corner.
- [99:37]
Todd McShay
Yeah. At 29, but. So Delane would be in play there if like a, if a Reuben Bain were to fall, I think he would be in play there. But if not, is it, is it a wide receiver? I mean they've missed from Sky Moore, Rashid Rice, Rasheed Rice. They need someone reliable receiver. They need someone they can trust, you know. And is that Carnell Tate? Is that Makai Lemon? Yeah, it'll be fascinating. They've got those two first. First round picks and an opportunity to kind of turn things right back around. So it's. Brett Veach is one of the better talent evaluators out there, but is not, you know, it hasn't been the best track record with offensive skill guys, you know. Yeah, yeah. The Clyde. Clyde Allaire, Edwards. Allaire.
- [100:28]
Bill Simmons
That was tough.
- [100:29]
Todd McShay
And then the wide receivers. So like do you just go with. Andy Reid's always been really good identifying offensive linemen. They've been good identifying defensive linemen. Are they just going to go at one of those positions or are they going to try to make a splash and actually hit on one of these offensive weapons for Patrick?
- [100:46]
Bill Simmons
So if Love somehow fell to nine and they didn't take him because we just signed Kenneth Walker, we're not taking him. The next two teams are the Bengals and the Dolphins and then The Cowboys at 12 ready to do the all time victory party. If the best guy in the draft fell them at 12. This never happens. Usually if he gets to around 7, 8, somebody will trade up to take him. I think would be how it plays out. I just don't see him going past seven or eight.
- [101:14]
Todd McShay
The other guy, if the commanders don't want him or, or don't see the Value and get an offer. I think they could move out of that spot. They pick at seven, but they don't pick again till 77 in the third round.
- [101:26]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. So maybe they go back. Yeah, maybe.
- [101:29]
Todd McShay
Maybe the Rams. What about the Rams?
- [101:32]
Bill Simmons
Wow. Right?
- [101:36]
Todd McShay
He's sitting there at 7. We don't have to give the biggest offer to go from 13 to 7. We put him in the backfield, we get some good backs.
- [101:44]
Bill Simmons
You sure that's not the Cowboys just moving up five spots for him? They have two picks.
- [101:50]
Todd McShay
I think the Cowboys got to go defense, but.
- [101:52]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, but you're talking about them like they're a rational franchise. This is Jerry Jones.
- [101:57]
Todd McShay
I know.
- [101:58]
Bill Simmons
Wait. Jeremiah Love still on the board. We gotta get him. Trade up for that guy. He's great. I just feel like that's like the classic splashy, we've won first take the next day kind of draft pick that the kind of move that they make.
- [102:15]
Todd McShay
Yes. They will definitely win first take and get up. I promise. Well, and that's regardless of who they take.
- [102:21]
Bill Simmons
Well, and that. That leads to the Ty Simpson thing. You know, he's. He's in like the low 20s. Seems like where people have them, like, around somebody taking a flyer at him between like 27 and 35.
- [102:33]
Todd McShay
Fascinating man. One guy who's never drafted before.
- [102:40]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [102:41]
Todd McShay
But has played the position, but is one of the. Like, Orlovsky comes out and says, I would take him number one. Now everyone's pointing to he. They're both represented by caa and like, fine. I've been. I was texting with Orlovsky like a month ago about, like, what we were seeing on tape. The funny part is. Or the interesting part is I've probably been the highest, like, even talking, like, Daniel Jeremiah, like. Yeah, he and I were kind of going back and forth on, like, I'm. I'm clearly higher on Ty Simpson than he is. But we were. But being rational about it.
- [103:13]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [103:14]
Todd McShay
With Ty Simpson. Here's the problem. If you're a purist. Right. And you. You grew up in Boston, like, think about growing up baseball. Like the. It's. It's romantic, right? Yeah. If you're a purist and you're someone who just like you studied the quarterback position your whole life and you put on the tape for Ty Simpson, it's like watching Willie Mays or like one of the. You know what I mean? It's. It's how the game's supposed to be played. It's pre snap. It's. It's identifying its control at the line. Of scrimmage. It's utilizing the motions pre snap and tendencies on the defensive side to identify. Then post snap, it's quick reads, it's. Everything's in rhythm, everything's on schedule, balls out on time, throwing with anticipation, hitting spots, leading receivers. It's, it's a beautiful. But then you get to game nine or 10 and the play starts to decline. Now if I'm making excuses for Ty Simpson, it's, well, they had like the 126best running game in the, in all of college football, which is like mind blowing for Alabama.
- [104:20]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [104:20]
Todd McShay
Then you've got to pass protection that started to fail because Brent Venables came to town with that Oklahoma defense and kind of showed some weaknesses in how to attack it. From that point on, everyone was kind of doing some of the same things. Then you got, he's taking a beating and he's got gastritis and by the time he gets to the Rose bowl down to he's 212 lb. Quarterback at the combine, he was down to 190. And then your top wide receiver, star playmaker who came in recruiting class with like 1A and 1B, was he Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State? Yeah. And he just disappears. So all those factors add up. And so if you're watching the tape into November, Ty Simpson is clearly better than Fernando Mendoza. Fernando Mendoza didn't play well against Iowa or Oregon or Penn State. But the fourth quarter after he made mistake interceptions in all those games, late in those games after that, when the game was on the line and all the pressure was there, he was perfect. He was awesome. And then you fast forward, I'm telling you, if you just watch the Ohio State tape of Mendoza, you're like this guy's generational, the toughness, the decisiveness, he's on the move, they're hitting his ass, they're getting after him, man. Like he got hit in that very first play, looked like he should have been knocked out. Then later in the game, no one talks about it, that same defender, Kaden Curry, comes and hits him in the end zone, head hits the hits the turf like. And he just never flinched. So and so when as the season progressed and he got more comfortable with that offense and the reads and the adjustment, he was, he was phenomenal. Like all those top 10 teams he faced at the time and he was like seven or eight teams, he was like 85% completion. So you compare all those things and then you look at one guy who's 6 foot 5 and 232 pounds and did all those things. But. But progress. But in an offense where RPO stressing defenses, they've got to play honest. He has one read, makes a decision balls out. And he's awesome at it. But it's not that easy in the NFL.
- [106:24]
Bill Simmons
And he had awesome receivers.
- [106:26]
Todd McShay
Two guys who are going to be drafted, I just told you, probably in the first two rounds and a third one who might be the best of them. Charlie Becker, who came out of nowhere. Yeah. And two running backs that could be drafted. So all those things and now you've got Alabama, right. Six one down to 190 pounds, bucked up to 212, couldn't stay healthy as one year as a starter, 15 starts. It means you are the outlier of outliers. Anyone with fewer than 25 starts, it's been a struggle. Anyone with fewer than 20 starts, it's been an outright bust as a first round picket quarterback. Quarterback. So it's this juggling of like my eyes tell me Ty Simpson's every bit as good in some ways better and more NFL ready.
- [107:07]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [107:08]
Todd McShay
Than Mendoza. But history and general managers who have to. Who have to assess risk are saying Mendoza's. Mendoza is the safer pick. He's got more. He's got. He's in that range of starts. He's in that range of size. He can run on a straight line. He won the big games. That's the debate. And so one person comes out this week, right? Norlovsky. And I don't think he's wrong with what he's saying in a lot of regards. And it's cool if you want him to be your number one, number one quarterback ahead of Mendoza. He's not alone. I've also talked to people in the league who would take Simpson over Mendoza. But A, the Raiders are taking Mendoza. Yeah. And B, I don't know why it has to be this huge. Like it is the story. Like the March madness is going on. Everything on my timeline, every show I turn on is Orlovsky.
- [108:00]
Bill Simmons
Caa.
- [108:01]
Todd McShay
How do you have Ty Simpson? He said that Mendoza didn't play in big games. It's pretty wild, you know, to see how one, one person can have these opinions which are not wrong in a lot of regards but are not shared by the majority of teams in the league can now set off this, this brush fire.
- [108:18]
Bill Simmons
You know, see, I think it makes sense because people love the NFL draft and there was no controversy with the NFL draft and it's March 24th. I really think people just love arguing about the draft. And we needed a moment for somebody to say something where everybody's like wait, what? And then now we're off and now we're going and now we have some Ty Simpson stuff. I think that's really it.
- [108:40]
Todd McShay
Right.
- [108:40]
Bill Simmons
Because you, you didn't mention when you were laying out the Mendoza case like really, really smart. Which teams love. They love when guys have like just these fucking crazy brains which it seems like he has. He'll be able to like remember the entire offense right away. Like they love that shit.
- [108:56]
Todd McShay
It And Brady's pulling the strings there. Right. And Brady. I probably sees a lot of a young Tom in Mendoza. Like he was a two or three star recruit depending on who you talk to. Yeah, couldn't. They wouldn't let him walk on at Miami. He had one offer coming out of Christopher Columbus High School in Miami and it was to Yale non scholarship. He committed to Yale and then wound up getting an offer late from California. It was his only scholarship offer. And he takes it. Red shirts and kind of grows, you know, incrementally. Gets this opportunity at Indiana. And I said in the summer when we did our show, I said in the summer this guy's a first rounder if he, if he develops and I think he will understand. And people thought I was crazy then but I was probably also last to market. It took that Ohio State game for me to go chips all in on Mendoza. So it's an unbelievable story. And I think Tom, you know, having spent a lot of time with Brian Greasy and knowing what Tom was up against at Michigan and seeing he kind of, he probably relates to what he's been through and then the mental part and the commitment to the game. Yeah, I can see why it's a no brainer for the Raiders that he's going to be picking and I think he'll do really well in Kubiak system. That's the thing we don't talk about enough is Kubiak's a good fit for him.
- [110:15]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [110:16]
Todd McShay
And we'll, we'll hide some of his weaknesses and kind of. But just like Signetti and that staff did at Indiana, they will know what to do to protect him from what his weaknesses are while he develops.
- [110:27]
Bill Simmons
Well, they had the devastating Max Crosby cancellation trade where they were clearly trading this guy who I don't wanna say is a bum knee, but I don't think it's a healthy knee. They were gonna get two first round picks from him. He's heading into his 30s. That trade would have been amazing. So now I don't Know what that is. Speaking of trades, by the way, with Simpson. So we saw this with Dart last year and you were kind of hinting at it, not quite predicting it, but that somebody was going to get aggressive and maybe try to move up and try to grab him. How. What's a realistic range for you with Simpson for somebody to be like, what number are we looking at where somebody's like, we got to get this guy. We got to trade up to here.
- [111:08]
Todd McShay
I think back half of the first round anywhere in there now, depending on what show you watch and getting ready earlier today and the show in the background, they're talking about like, well, maybe if Arizona moves back from three, they could take him at, you know, eight, nine. Like I don't know that it's going to be there. I. 16 is it seems like the jumping off point. That's the Jets. Yeah. Unless the plan has changed. I'm. I am under. I know the plan is 20, 27 for the jets quarterback. So, yeah, I would say 17, barring something that's completely unforeseen at this point. 17. And I'm not saying that picking but like when we get 17 and beyond in the first round is about where I think the range for him would be based off of where I evaluate him. But also like everything I just went through, what he is on tape versus he's an outlier. He's going to be an outlier in a couple of regards. So I think that if it's Arizona moving in somewhere like the Giants did last year, I knew the Giants wanted to move up, but the funny part was in talking to Dable offline and really fascinating having spent a lot of time talking to Brian Dabel recently before he took the Titans job and then talking to Mike Borgonzi, the GM of the Titans. And now they're working together, but Dable's sitting there trying to talk him into taking Jalen Carter, you know, move back to three. They offered a boatload to go get Cam Ward and now Dable gets fired by the Giants, gets an opportunity to go work with the guy and he loves Jackson Dart and he talked Joe Shane into moving up to go get him and he loves Scatter Boo. Those were his two picks last year. But, but, but now he gets to work with Cam or the guy that they. They wanted to give away a whole lot to go get him. But the Giants, I kind of knew about two weeks out that this is the plan. The plan is we're going to stick at three and take Abdul and the Shador Thing blew up and I knew the behind stories and some of the things that happened in some of the meetings and it wasn't good. I didn't know he was going to
- [113:15]
Bill Simmons
fall to the fifth.
- [113:15]
Todd McShay
I thought second round is probably where it's going to happen. But then you start to hear people in the league and you understand the why. My point is the Giants played it perfectly. Let's get our guy here just like the Cardinals sitting there at three. And then let's move up from. I think they're 34 in the second round and let's move into that mid 20s range to get ahead of anyone else who could potentially try to come and get them if the opportunity presents itself. So I think if the Cardinals like Tyson.
- [113:43]
Bill Simmons
So Eagles at 23 who are always like thinking ahead of time, can we
- [113:48]
Todd McShay
this and then Howie go back to 34 and then move back into the 41st or something? Yeah.
- [113:53]
Bill Simmons
Cause the other one I was looking at was the jets at 16, tying it to what you were saying earlier about how they care about 27, not 26. And if you could get Arizona to move up to 16 and get next year's first from them and flip like, you know, a second and a third, whatever. But now you have Arizona's first with the three first you already have. You're thinking about it.
- [114:15]
Todd McShay
Yeah. If you're Arizona, who scares you from. From pick. If it's. If the jets are willing to move, that means they're not taking Ty.
- [114:24]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [114:24]
Todd McShay
And then who scares you? 24 is the next team you look at and say, I'm just saying multiple
- [114:29]
Bill Simmons
teams are trying to trade up to 16 and you're worried you're not going to get them if you like them. We don't even know if the Cardinals like them. But yeah, I felt like 16 would be in play. I'm always prepared for the Eagles, the Browns, because they don't care about next this upcoming season either. They would probably think about it. I wonder. You mentioned the Titans about Day Ball and just, you know, they have a really interesting structure because they're two guys that I didn't like as head coaches, but I do like. Like I thought Salah did a good job with the Niners. I just think he's a really good defensive. Even when he left the jets, like they completely fell apart on defense the moment he left.
- [115:05]
Todd McShay
Oh, totally.
- [115:05]
Bill Simmons
And then yeah, Day Ball's just a great offensive coach. Probably had some bad luck. Maybe the wrong city for him. Maybe he shouldn't be a head coach. But I like the Combo of them together, where it's like just, I love it. You handle the offense. I'm going to do the team and the defense and we're going to work together. And I wonder, because Day Ball was at Buffalo, seeing, like, how they were able to build around Josh and Cam Ward, I wonder what the lessons, good and bad were for him with how they built the Bills. Right? Because ultimately, like, when they got Cook, I think that made Josh's life a lot easier in a whole bunch of ways. And I wonder if they would think it that way with love at 4 for Tennessee, like, let's take.
- [115:48]
Todd McShay
Let's do this.
- [115:49]
Bill Simmons
This guy's going to. Now, now we have the two game breakers and we can build around that.
- [115:53]
Todd McShay
I would be shocked if Brian's not pushing hard with Mike Borgonzi, the general manager, and Wasala to take Jeremiah Lovett for. I would be shocked. That doesn't mean it's going to happen for all the reasons I laid out earlier. And do we want to make that financial commitment to a running back where we could go get a defensive end here? You know, but. But I also. The best thing that happened to Cam Ward is Brian Dabel took that job and didn't get a head coaching job with Buffalo or anywhere else. It's what he does best.
- [116:28]
Bill Simmons
It's like McDaniels last year with May. There was. It was a miracle that that guy just wanted to be the offensive coordinator and, like, commit for a few years.
- [116:36]
Kyle Mann
Right.
- [116:36]
Todd McShay
And it had it been anyone else besides Cam Ward, I don't know how. How, you know, thrilled he would have been about. About doing it.
- [116:43]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [116:43]
Todd McShay
He wanted to work with him that badly. So now you. If you throw. And I. Schefter came out last week and said, I don't see it at Tennessee. I don't think it's going to be Tennessee. And I made a couple calls and I, you know, I never want to call the source and they're never going to give me the information specifically on that. But I can see it both ways. I think there's going to be some internal debate, which is healthy, on what we do with that pick. They spent a lot of money, more money on free agency on the defensive side than they did the offensive side, which leads me to believe, like the breadcrumbs they're playing, they've got everything in place with a really good defensive coordinator and a really good head coach as a defensive coach that we can go out and spend that pick on an offensive weapon. So.
- [117:28]
Bill Simmons
And then they kept Simmons, which I mean their defense might be pretty good next year. And you throw in Salah, you throw in how bad their coaching was last year. You know, they, and they have an interim coach. It's just a mess. And they were a mess to watch. That's a team. I don't know if they could win the division. But when you think every year we have the fourth to first team and you're looking at candidates, I think they're definitely a candidate. It's not like, I totally agree. It's not like in that AFC south. Like do you love any AFC south team? We have no idea what Daniel Jones, who knows with Jacksonville a year after a pretty good year for them and then Houston with C.J. i don't know. I could see, I could see good stuff happen. The last thing I just want to mention quick because normally teams shoot high on the offensive line, especially in the top 10. But it's a bad offensive line year for like blue chippers. And yet every year that doesn't stop somebody from being like, look man, we just need, we just need a tackle. Like this guy's 15th on our board, but it still makes sense for to take him at 6 because we're not getting a tackle otherwise. Do you see that happening with any of these guys?
- [118:33]
Todd McShay
I think it's almost going to be an exact mirror of what happened last year. It may start a couple picks later or it could start at 3 with the Cardinals like Francis, Maui Noah coming out of Miami. The problem with this class is Maui Noah is an awesome player, phenomenal athlete, around 300, you know, 320 plus pounds, 330 pounds. But he's not your, he's a right tackle. He's been a right tackle. He's going to be a right tackle and worst case he's a guard. Then you've got Spencer Fano who's a terrific athlete and plays like smart and he like the energy he has and great zone blocker and all those things. But some teams are working him out as a center because he may be an elite center because he's got both. He's got short arms. Right? And then you've got short arms.
- [119:18]
Bill Simmons
I got Will Campbell ptsd. Did you see the short arms?
- [119:24]
Todd McShay
Did you see Mensch when we sat down with, with the Patriots GM and, and, and I, I, you know, I'm talking about, you know, you grew up of son of a Hall of Fame general manager and, and you're watching film in Lambeau Field before. Take us through what you develop and I ask a couple Questions. Not. Not buttering up, but like, let's get. Let's start with the history of it. Yeah. Mensch comes in.
- [119:49]
Bill Simmons
Oh, no.
- [119:49]
Todd McShay
Grew up in Andover. You know, he's a New England guy, Patriots fan. Everyone is life paid.
- [119:54]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [119:55]
Todd McShay
He comes in with this haymaker off the top rope of. You know, I thought at the time, when Will Campbell. When you guys drafted Will Campbell, he had short arms. And I saw it on tape. And then, you know, sometimes the short, short arms, like, if you don't see it on tape and I don't get caught up in it, but I saw it on tape. And then we fast forward to the super bowl and is he going to be your left tackle? And the response is, will Campbell is our starting left tack. And I'm sitting there, I'm like, oh, my gosh, how do I recover? But it was great. He handled it well.
- [120:22]
Bill Simmons
They've been adamant. This is our left tackle. There's no discussion. There's no debate. There's no time.
- [120:27]
Todd McShay
Look at him pre injury, and he was holding up just fine. And you give him a second year and development and kind of the motivation from that, I think he's actually going to be all right.
- [120:39]
Bill Simmons
But that's the problem with how that Patriots season ended. Among many of the problems, including getting shellacked in the Super Bowl. We have no idea how healthy Will Campbell was, and we have no idea how healthy Drake May was. And they can't really tell us after the fact. Right. Because they got to file those injury reports. And once you do that.
- [120:57]
Todd McShay
Well, I feel like they've kind of told us.
- [120:59]
Bill Simmons
If they kind of told us. Yeah. And Campbell's even admitted, like, I have a torn MCL that I probably shouldn't have played with, but it's the playoffs. Drake May. I don't know if we'll ever get an answer.
- [121:11]
Todd McShay
Probably not. No. Yeah, it would. Yeah.
- [121:13]
Bill Simmons
I think the answer lies in the tape and some of the plays they ran and did about.
- [121:17]
Todd McShay
I think we know the answer. I think we know the answer, Bill. I mean, you watched it even more closely than I did. Like, I. That. That is not that. The last few games and last two games, it just. It wasn't. It wasn't the same.
- [121:30]
Bill Simmons
So, yeah, even down to the plays they called for him were not the same. That's what made me the most suspicious. Like, rolling him out to the right where he could throw. Like, they just didn't want to do it.
- [121:41]
Todd McShay
Right.
- [121:42]
Bill Simmons
So that anything where he might get hit, they didn't want to do it.
- [121:46]
Todd McShay
Yeah. And that was such a big part of what they were like. I was. I told you. I was at that Bills game where they jumped out to the big lead. He was every bit of a running back early in that game when they got the big lead before they wound up giving, you know, the comeback from the Bills. And just like, his mobility is such a big part of what they do.
- [122:04]
Bill Simmons
So my last thing. And then we have to go. I really want the Patriots to get a tight end. My dream for them would be 31, a tight end, but there's no tight ends. There's one guy who's going to go from. The guy from Oregon is going to go before they pick.
- [122:22]
Todd McShay
Yeah, there's no.
- [122:24]
Bill Simmons
There's no chance. Could he fall to the 20s and could they move up? Can I, like, dream about this for a second? I just never.
- [122:30]
Todd McShay
I just had a mock draft where Sadiq fell to 27 to the 49ers. And I went there with. Because George Kittle's injury. I. I don't think it's. I'm not banking on it, but I like if you're the. I get it. I don't. To me, he's not Tyler Warren and he's. He's not Colson Loveland. I think he's a really good player, but I don't think he's at that level. So as we're continuing to build, if you're a Patriots fan, it's like, I don't know that I want to give up capital to go get a tight end.
- [123:00]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [123:00]
Todd McShay
I also will say this. Maybe get two of them on day three. This class is. Weirdly, they had 28 tight ends invited to the combine. It's the most in the history of the combine. It's. There's no elite guys, but, like this Marlon Klein from Michigan, they just had him block, and when they threw him the ball, Underwood couldn't throw the ball, and it was a disaster at Michigan. So I like him. I like Sam Roush from Stanford. There's two SMU guys that can run. They're like. There's a lot of good tight ends. I feel like maybe you double up on tight end on day three and see if you can hit the jackpot with one of these. These kind of guys. So.
- [123:38]
Bill Simmons
Well, that's.
- [123:39]
Todd McShay
We'll see how it plays out.
- [123:40]
Bill Simmons
My guess, with them, it was interesting that they got Buffalo's fullback. Right. Because I actually liked when they ran out of the eye. They just didn't really have the personnel for it. But it was. I. I Didn't understand why they didn't do it more in the Super Bowl. Um, and with Dobbs. And if we think A.J. brown's a possibility that takes receiver off. But I just want them to have tight ends and blocking options and the ability to go big or small, depending on. That's what they didn't have last year. And I think the best teams offensively in Seattle was a good example of this, and so was the Rams. These teams that could go bigger or smaller depending on what the situation was, they had no flexibility to do that. I would like to be able to see them do that.
- [124:21]
Todd McShay
They will this year. They will. It's. It's the evolution. It's. You know, this is first year and kind of. It's not a miracle, but. But yeah, I mean, you've been out in LA how many years? But you just sound like the people I'm surrounded by here my whole life, basically.
- [124:39]
Bill Simmons
The good news is Miami and the jets four times. The bad news is basically everybody else on the schedule. But you do have four games that should be pretty winnable. All right, before you go, give me one completely insane prediction that's not that insane. A completely insane prediction that would make me go, oh my God. But then we could replay it on April 30th and be like, mcshay fucking called this in the completely insane prediction section.
- [125:10]
Todd McShay
Cole Payton, North Dakota State's quarterback, was a one year starter at, at North Dakota State. He was essentially Tim Tebow. Remember the role Tim Tebow had with. Was it Chris Leak his freshman year where he kind of came in off the bench and rotate a little bit? Would, would handle the. In inverse rear inverted veer and, and the, the inside running essentially was a fullback and would handle short yardage, goal line and some, some run plays. Right? Yeah, he did that for three years at North Dakota State. He was a runner who was kind of utilizing this gimmicky. Not gimmicky, but in a. In a sub package role, if you will. Yeah. Gets the starting job this year. He's also a lefty. He's also got a tight upper body and the first 20 throws I watched of him and as I'm watching and it did his background of what he is. I'm like, Tebow and Tim and I are good after a tumultuous start to our relationship. But I just did not see it with Tim Tebow coming out and it became like this big thing. So I had to get over the Tebow effect. Right. Cole Payton from North Dakota State might be the Third best prospect. I'm not saying he's there now, but a guy who could come in kind of like Seattle was trying to use Jalen Milroe. Short yardage, goal lines, kind of play that role and develop into a starter. He's mobile, he throws the ball well on the run. He's deadly accurate. And it's the weirdest thing because all of his mechanics look horrible. Like tight upper body, southpaw, all that. I think he could go ahead of Nussmeier and Carson Beck.
- [126:47]
Bill Simmons
You have him 65th on your big board.
- [126:50]
Todd McShay
Yep. I think he could wind up going in the second round and I'll be shocked if he doesn't go in the third. And I'll be. I honestly think he could be the third quarterback off the board, and I don't think anyone's really talking about this guy.
- [127:03]
Bill Simmons
Gotta say, great name. Cole Payton. Just sounds like somebody who'd be good. Like that sounds like a sports movie quarterback or nascar.
- [127:11]
Todd McShay
Right.
- [127:12]
Bill Simmons
Channing Tatum plays Cole Payton. That's a great name. So Carson Beck, even though he's in his mid-20s and has had 100 college starts, he's. You have 100th. Nobody's going to talk themselves into him in like the late second round.
- [127:28]
Todd McShay
It could be. I don't trust him. I don't. I don't trust him. I don't think he's unique because he's. He's a big pocket passer and he can be accurate and he played his best ball down the stretch. And he. Outside of two games where he had multiple interceptions, he really protected the ball and did all. A lot of the things that kind of cursed him. I like this experience. I like the size and I like the toughness and all those things. I just, I don't know. I call it a bad taste in my mouth. The elbow surgery. Why does Georgia. Why does Georgia let Carson Beck go? They have plenty of money to bring him back. Like. Like, I don't know. It's gonna be interesting to see. I've heard the Steelers are kind of intrigued with him on day two and a couple other organizations. He'll go. He'll go on day two. But. But I, I would take Cole Payton before him.
- [128:21]
Bill Simmons
So it doesn't sound like you have your Tyler Shook yet. Maybe, Maybe they.
- [128:25]
Todd McShay
Cole Peyton's my Tyler Shuck.
- [128:27]
Bill Simmons
So you. But Tyler Shuck. You were like, this guy could actually start next year. Watch what happens. Like, you were pretty adamant.
- [128:33]
Todd McShay
Different.
- [128:34]
Bill Simmons
This is a different kind of. Yeah, this is. Yeah, this is like.
- [128:37]
Todd McShay
Yeah, I'm doing the best with what I got.
- [128:39]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. All right, so it's theringer.com McShay. It's just an NFL Draft smorgasbord and also the McShay Show. And then you're coming out to LA and you're going to do a bunch of live shows that we're going to do on Netflix. And yeah, I'm pumped. And don't forget about the newsletter, which is indispensable.
- [128:59]
Todd McShay
Yeah. And we did it. We did a second round mock on that. It's going to be a lot of intel coming up. It's going to be the additional, like, bonus stuff. So, yeah, between the, the new site, the newsletter and the show, we, we're, we're pumped. We've got exactly what we need, man.
- [129:14]
Bill Simmons
And I'm going to have you on one more time before the draft. I'm sure there'll be a million things that change, but this was fun. Thank you. Thank you for getting me re energized about this draft. That was kind of like Luke. Now I'm excited. Good to see you, McShay.
- [129:26]
Todd McShay
Good. Good to see you, bud.
- [129:28]
Bill Simmons
All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kyle, thanks to McShay, thanks to how and Eduardo as well. Don't forget, rewatchables went up. We did the nice guys LA Confidential coming next Monday. So you have five days to watch a really, really great movie. Before you do our, you do a listen for our little four person podcast which includes Andy Greenwald for this one. First time he's been on in a while. It was great to see him, me, Andy, Sean and Chris. We had a blast. So there you go. All right, I'm going to be back on this feed on Thursday with a lot of basketball stuff and maybe even a little baseball, too. Stay tuned. See you on Thursday. Must be 21 plus on President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18/plus on President DC, Kentucky or Wyoming gaming problem. Call 1-800- Gamble or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.orgchinconnecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-Hopeny or text Hopeny in New York. For Louisiana, call 877-770-7867. This episode is brought to you by TaxAct. Like an expert coach. TaxAct offers step by step guidance and guaranteed accuracy when filing taxes. Get tips along the way. Add Expert Assist to talk to tax experts and let our experts do your taxes for you with Expert Full Service Tax act helps you find the deductions and credits you deserve so you can get them over with. Visit taxact.com to learn more. Conditions apply. See taxact.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Marvel Television's Daredevil Born Again Season 2 now streaming on Disney Charlie Cox and Vincent D' Onofrio are back and Kristen Ritter makes her highly anticipated return as Jessica Jones in an all new season. As Mayor Fist tightens his grip on New York City, he makes Daredevil as his top target. Matt Murdock fights from the shadows, hoping to bring down Fisk's corrupt empire and reclaim his city. Don't Miss Daredevil Born Again Season 2 Now Streaming Only on Disney.