The Bill Simmons Podcast
Episode: "Maye Vs. Stafford, Week 18 Picks & the 21 Best 21st Century Sports Movies"
Date: January 2, 2026
Guests: Peter Schrager (Shrags), Joe House, & Sean Fennessey
Episode Overview
This extra-long episode features three main themes: a spirited debate on the NFL MVP race (centered on Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye vs. veteran Rams QB Matthew Stafford), comprehensive Week 18 NFL picks (with play-in and playoff seeding at stake), and a countdown of the 21 best sports movies of the 21st century, joined by critic Sean Fennessey. The show balances classic Simmons humor, nostalgic deep dives, and sharp football analysis.
1. NFL MVP Race: Maye vs. Stafford (w/ Peter Schrager & Joe House)
Timestamps: 04:00–33:30
Key Discussion Points
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MVP Vote Process & Culture
- Schrager gives context on the MVP ballot (ranked 1-5) and steps back, saying, “I recused myself. It became too annoying. Once I came over to NFL Network, it was just my ego satiated. I didn’t need to do it.” (05:00, Schrager)
- MVP voting is highly narrative-driven, not purely stats-based. “It’s not an algorithm. It’s…guys like me and Kyle Brandt…it’s really a narrative-based thing.” (05:40, Schrager)
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Legacy & Weight of NFL vs NBA MVP
- Simmons and House debate whether the NFL MVP carries as much historical impact as the NBA’s. “Feels like the NBA MVP matters more…to the history of the sport…NFL, maybe it’s just a blind spot for me…” (06:08, Simmons)
- Schrager disagrees: “You can define the season and you can remember the year. Matt Ryan—what do I identify him as? Guy who lost the Super Bowl. Not the guy that’s a former MVP.” (07:02, Schrager)
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Maye vs. Stafford Debate
- Simmons lays out the advanced stats: “Maye has over 400 rushing yards, 4 TDs, 35 first downs… Pats have the number one offense by EPA, Maye’s at the top in every category.” (14:32, Simmons)
- House and Schrager note Maye’s weak strength of schedule, but credit his supporting cast is inferior to Stafford’s.
- “Stafford’s numbers are astounding. But he is Puka Nukua and Devante Adams. How does that not trump strength of schedule?” (29:55, Simmons)
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Christian McCaffrey as Dark Horse MVP
- Schrager: “Last week, he was 500 to 1… If he, against that defense in Seattle in a third straight primetime game, goes for 200 yards, has two TDs? People are gonna notice.” (18:09, Schrager)
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Switch the QBs Thought Experiment
- “If you switch these two guys… are you telling me Drake Maye would have worse stats than Matthew Stafford? Are people really thinking this?” (15:14, Simmons)
Notable Quotes
- “Why would [the Ravens] make Lamar available? There’s like eight good QBs in the entire NFL. Four are MVP level and he’s one of them!” (08:30, House)
- “You could define the season and you remember the year… ‘Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson’ does carry more weight.” (07:00, Schrager)
- “If you pumped it into an algorithm, it’s a no-brainer. But it’s a narrative award.” (19:12, House)
2. Week 18 NFL Picks and Playoff Scenarios (w/ House & Schrager)
Timestamps: 33:30–79:00
Key Discussion Points
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Coach of the Year Race
- Names debated: Mike Vrabel, Kyle Shanahan, Liam Cohen, Mike Macdonald, Ben Johnson, Sean Payton—for unique turnarounds or overachieving with limited rosters.
- Simmons: “Shanahan should win… The Niners have been so ravaged by injuries it’s impossible.” (23:56, Simmons)
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Best Head Coach Jobs for 2026?
- Giants, Ravens, Falcons as most appealing. “There is a team with an elite pass rush, a franchise QB, and a left tackle in NY — Giants.” (43:46, Schrager)
- “Atlanta is amazing on both sides of the ball. That’s a good team.” (46:36, House)
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Game-by-Game Breakdown: Betting Logic & Insights
- Vikings vs. Packers: Vikings -7.5 as the “let’s not get anyone hurt” game; Packers locked into #7 seed. “This is a let's not get anyone hurt, let's get the fuck out of dodge game.” (77:21, Simmons)
- Bengals vs. Browns: “This feels like a ‘run it up, end the season with good vibes’ spot for Cincy.” (51:33, Simmons)
- Ravens vs. Steelers: Debate over the Tomlin magic as a home dog. (55:57, House)
- Falcons vs. Saints: Saints’ weapons evaporated; Falcons the “most perplexing, maddening, vexing team in the NFL.” (77:41, Simmons)
- Bucs vs. Panthers: “This is an ‘I’m so stupid’ game. No matter what, you’ll feel stupid after betting.” (69:21, Simmons)
Ringer 107 Picks Recap
- Seahawks -1.5 vs. 49ers (Niners too banged up)
- Bengals -7.5 vs. Browns (smash spot)
- Vikings -7.5 vs. Packers (Packers locked in, Vikings motivated)
- Falcons -3 vs. Saints (Saints depleted, Falcons must-win)
- Ravens moneyline/under 50.5 vs. Steelers (“How do the Steelers score?”)
Notable Quotes
- “Stay away, these are two stupid teams…neither one is the best in the NFC South, but they’re playing.” (73:25, House, on Bucs-Panthers)
- “Week 18 is a liar…You have no idea what teams with nothing to gain are going to do.” (48:06, Schrager, recalling Kyle Brandt’s rule)
- “Chiefs moneyline parlayed with an under? The Raiders can’t score!” (48:45, Simmons)
3. The 21 Best 21st Century Sports Movies (w/ Sean Fennessey)
Timestamps: 85:35–149:20
Structure
Intro: [85:35]–[96:23]
- Simmons and Sean Fennessey break down the ground rules: Must be 2001 or later, ranked by quality (not personal rewatchability), and one movie per filmmaker.
Honorable Mentions / Toughest Cuts: [96:23]–[108:12]
- Near-misses include Ford v Ferrari, Borg vs. McEnroe, Blades of Glory, Goon, Iron Claw, Challengers, Win Win, The Hammer, and others.
Simmons' Final Top 21 (Selected Rankings & Commentary)
- Moneyball (2011)
- "Moneyball is about where sports went in the 21st century… it’s a really awesome movie and accessible to people like my wife who would normally not care. Degree of difficulty was high." (145:07, Simmons)
- Creed (2015)
- “Odds of this working were insurmountable. But the movie's the fucking best. Coogler did the impossible. It’s right there.” (141:59)
- Friday Night Lights (2004)
- “If the TV show never existed, this movie would be revered even more. It’s the best high school football movie ever.” (139:31)
- F1 (2025)
- “Could have been number three...It’s just so well made. Pitt is electric. Huge popcorn movie.” (137:08)
- The Way Back (2020)
- “Best Affleck’s ever been in a movie — and the real-life overlaps make it unusually good.” (134:17)
- Rush (2013)
- “Best Chris Hemsworth movie. F1 movies always deliver.” (133:00)
- Warrior (2011)
- “Great Tom Hardy, underrated Joel Edgerton. MMA film that lives up to the boxing tradition.” (131:47)
- Marty Supreme (2025)
- "Chalamet is electric. Feels like a Rocky for ping pong. If you haven't seen it, go." (128:41)
- Sugar (2008)
- “Never been a baseball movie quite like it, thoughtful and original.” (127:41)
- Miracle (2004)
- “I didn’t want them to make it...but it totally works. 1980 US hockey lives forever.” (126:59)
(See transcript for full top 21. Sharp commentary on why each movie matters and how they reflect sports movie evolution.)
Segment Highlights
- Best Sports Movie Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, but “for overall, it’s Leo [DiCaprio] in terms of consistent box office and quality.” (92:02, Simmons)
- Cultural Shift: “Sports documentaries were getting better, and maybe ruined sports movies...the next 15 years proved that might be true.” (118:11, Simmons)
- Marty Supreme is a late addition, replacing Draft Day: “Draft Day, sadly, is out. Marty Supreme came out on Christmas, and it’s just better.” (108:04, Simmons)
Notable Quotes
- “Challengers walked so Heated Rivalry could run.” (106:28, Simmons, on tennis films)
- “Miracle is like the platonic ideal of a movie that feels like it came out when you were 11, but it didn’t.” (127:13, Fennessey)
- “Sugar...original, thoughtful, and it feels like a documentary even though it’s not.” (127:42, Simmons)
- “Moneyball is where sports went...it saw the future of team building.” (146:43, Simmons)
- Fennessey on Creed: “That 28-year-old kid made a boxing movie that felt that classical...all the fights felt new.” (141:59, Fennessey)
Memorable Moments & Banter
- “For Pete’s Sake” running joke whenever Schrager name-drops—“Did you throw that one at the producers? Sneaky Pete strikes again!” (24:32)
- Simmons Caffeine Surge: “I just made myself a coffee, I’m fucking flying right now.” (22:43)
- G-Baby’s Death Impact (Hardball): “Maybe the most iconic sports movie death…” (120:55)
- Podcast Meta: Schrager: “People are saying you’re podcasting in the zone. The Reddit pendulum is back on Simmons.” (80:07)
- Ongoing pats on the back for Simmons’ "zone" in content creation, with Fennessey’s nod to rapturous audience feedback for the “Rewatchables Top 50.” (79:48, Schrager)
- Simmons on deleting sugar from his diet: “2026 is going to be my best year.” (80:23)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- NFL MVP Debate: 04:00–33:30
- Coaching Vacancies / Best Jobs: 39:45–47:36
- Week 18 Picks Begins: 50:00
- Ringer 107 Picks Recap: 76:02–79:20
- Sports Movies Countdown: 85:35–149:20
Summary Takeaways
- Argument for Drake Maye as MVP is advanced-metric and context-based (weak supporting cast), yet long-held narrative biases and schedule strength may push voters toward Stafford or a dark-horse McCaffrey.
- Playoff-bound teams (Jags, Pats, Niners) and head coaching vacancies are viewed through the lenses of roster talent and stability (Ravens, Giants, Falcons discussed most as plum openings).
- The 21st-century sports movie canon is evolving: Moneyball and Creed stand atop, while new entries like Marty Supreme suggest the form can still surprise when handled creatively.
- Signature podcast blend: stats-driven analysis, self-deprecating humor, and pop culture nostalgia.
Recommended for Listeners Who
- Want an unvarnished, diehard sports fan’s breakdown of MVP races, playoff stakes, and award voting politics.
- Love lengthy, passionate arguments about sports movies—both for comfort and for craft.
- Enjoy riffing, inside jokes, and behind-the-scenes podcasting energy as much as the subject matter.
- Appreciate thoughtful, occasionally controversial takes—and don’t mind the occasional F-bomb or caffeine-fueled tangent.
Best single-line quote:
Simmons, on Maye vs Stafford:
"If you switch these two guys, are you telling me Drake Maye would have worse stats than Matthew Stafford? Are people really thinking this?" (15:14)
Best running joke:
Every time Peter Schrager name-drops, it’s “For Pete’s sake!” (24:34+)
Best segment for movie fans:
The cinema rundown with Sean Fennessey, especially individual picks breakdowns and arguments over the true “sports movie” of the century. (85:35–149:20)
(Ads, intros, and outros omitted.)