← The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
01:47:57
Loading summary
Transcript358 lines
- [00:00]
Bill Simmons
You're listening to the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. FanDuel Sportsbook is the best place to bet on the NBA. We have these fun little Tuesday Friday player performance stuff. We have same game parlays. We have picks for me sometimes and boosts and all kinds of fun things. Get ready in the playoffs. Download the FanDuel Sportsbook app today to get in on the action. And by the way, the Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit theringer.com RG to learn more. Listen to the end of this episode for additional details. Must be 21/president select states gaming problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com Coming up, not only are we going to talk about basketball, I'm going to fix basketball next. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Please check out the Prestige TV podcast. We are doing double episodes every week about White Lotus. I'm on one of them on Sunday nights, the Recap Pod and then Joanna and Rob midweek TV doing that as well. Plus we're covering severance. I think it's the final week of that too. New rewatchables coming on Monday night. I'm just going to tell you what it is right now. Days of Thunder with Tom Cruise. It's officially Sports Movie month. Tom Cruise, 16th Rewatchables movie for him. Congrats to him. Just setting all kinds of records. Great guy. So you got that coming up. You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel or you can watch that as a video podcast on Spotify, just like you can watch this as a video podcast on Spotify. We're also brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, where I hope you're checking out the 30 on 30, which we do every Friday. I tweet out my pick, try to get 30 plus scoring a little boost. So stay tuned for that. All right, coming up, Kurt Goldsberry and I are going to talk about some things we've noticed as we head into the home stretch of the NBA season. And then more importantly, Kirk's class did this big study of how to fix the NBA season and we are going to dive into that and it's really cool. And I urge you to continue to listen through the pod until we get to that part. And then I brought my dad on because he wanted to do a Boston sports report and he went to the OKC Celtic game last night and I had to indulge him. Anyway, that is next. Here are friends from Pearl Jam, all Right. Kurt Goldsberry is here. You can read him on the ringer.com you can listen to him on various Ringer podcasts. He is based in Austin, Texas, where we saw each other after a depressing Spur sun game, Suns game with no Wemby and with the Suns team imploding. We have something really good that we're going to talk about later in the pod, this big picture idea that I'm excited to throw at the world short term. There's been some stuff going on as we hit these last 20 games and I talked about this with Brisillo two Sundays ago, that there's always a team right around now that starts making a surge like Dallas did last year, like the Celtics did a couple years ago. And it's like, who, who's the team? We talked about possibilities, kind of glossed over Minnesota and Minnesota kicked Denver's ass last night. The three point shooting has gotten way better. They're 11 and oh, in the last 11 Randall games, stuff's kind of happening. Yet they're in the seventh seed. Golden State's 37, 28, Minnesota's 38 and 29. Are you a believer yet? Easy schedule, Just a great matchup for them against Denver. Is something happening? What are you seeing?
- [03:39]
Kurt Goldsberry
Well, I've always liked this team and I feel like they traded Carl Anthony Towns in part because of the new cba and I think it sort of took them off course. I'm a believer that they're going to finish this season very strong for a few reasons. One, you just pointed out Julius Randle is playing his best stretch of basketball since he's gotten to Minnesota. He missed pretty much all of February. That's important because they went five, seven in February, but they won those last 11 games with him. I think five in January, now six straight in March.
- [04:11]
Bill Simmons
Well, what are you saying? That's, what's he doing differently? Because in the, in the first part of the year it looked like a bad spacing fit. It looked like a weird who's. Who should take the shot this time. And it just, it just seemed off. So what changed?
- [04:24]
Kurt Goldsberry
I think he's playing. He knows his teammates better and he's making better passes. Like at his best he's a scorer who can also pass. And I think during this stretch I haven't looked it up. I think he's leading the team in assists. So you have, you have Gobert obviously as the defensive anchor. You know what Ant is going to do as a scorer. I think he's sort of your second scorer and maybe your primary playmaker when things are going well for him and without him, their second scorer, Bill, that's a pretty big question mark for this team. So I think his biggest thing is scoring and playmaking and just filling that void below ant on the box score. And here's the sneaky thing with this team. They have the easiest remaining schedule of all of the Western Conference competitive sort of teams, that top seven group, and it's by a landslide. They have this homestand where Orlando, Utah, Indiana, and two games against the Pelicans coming in this current win streak could extend to 11 very easily. And I think if there's anybody that's going to catch that group two to five on the Western Conference standings, it's the Minnesota Timberwolves. So I really like their chances of finishing this season pretty strong.
- [05:35]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, it's interesting because in this run they're 16 and 9 in their last 25, basically, I think 16 and 8 last 24. So the this, the record's better. The schedule's been pretty easy, but they did go 2 and 1 against OKC and they beat Denver twice, which I think are good signs, especially now that the Lakers don't have a center. Maybe those are the two teams they have to look at. I was studying it today. I test wise, I didn't really notice it until the last week. Just that they seem happier playing together. I thought last night they looked like last year's Timberwolves was noticeable. They might feel like they have Denver's number, but looking at all the numbers, the three point shooting is way better. Right. So Nas in his last 25, he's 41% from 3 and he's 18 and 7 and he's having a really nice free agent run. We talked about him on the worst Contracts pod, talking about how all these moves they've made, especially the Gobert extension, might have screwed them to keep Nas. And then Timberwolf fans are like, we're keeping nas. It's like, well, you made this Carl Anthony Towns trade to save money, which leads me to believe you're not keeping nas, especially if you have this new ownership. But who knows? He's playing 33 minutes a game and he's been great. Conley in his last 17 is shooting 48% from 3 and he looked like dead legs washed up the first six weeks of the season. Right. That surprised me more than anything. I didn't think they were going to get anything out of him anymore. And it seemed like he wasn't going to be able to play A crunch time for them. And then DeFincenzo is the other one. Since Christmas he's missed some games, but 16 points a game, 47% from three and he's playing 29 minutes a game. So you say how they don't have a second score and you're right. But they've been able to patch it. Like Nas will have a big game. Dante have a big game. Randall, Manhattan, like it feels like they're all rotating who's the second guy? And they're pretty good. I'm surprised Dillingham isn't having a bigger impact for them, but maybe they don't need them.
- [07:38]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, Dillingham is, is a nice rookie story, but like, come on, we, we. We're talking about a team that had Western Conference title aspirations at the beginning of the year and a rookie really isn't going to slide into that, make a lot of noise. I think divincenza is a great, great sort of similar thing to Randall. He's, he's gotten time to learn this team. He's fitting in. But remember last year I thought this team had the best vibes in the playoffs for a while. And a lot of had to do with Nas Reed, who is like the spirit animal of the whole Timberwolves fan base. Never say anything negative about Nas Reed. Bill. Right. Alexander Walker, I'm sorry he's going to.
- [08:14]
Bill Simmons
Be on New Orleans next year.
- [08:15]
Kurt Goldsberry
But you're.
- [08:16]
Bill Simmons
You guys are right. Or Washington, wherever he's going to go. Somebody with cap space, Brooklyn, who knows.
- [08:21]
Kurt Goldsberry
But they're big and they're physical and they're long and they gave, you know what everybody forgets. Like they give, they give some. They gave Jamal Murray a lot of problems last night. They gave MBJ a lot of problems last night. When they're really at their best, you know, they have McDaniels on defense, they're long on the perimeter, they're playing hard. And when those same dudes that are playing great perimeter defense are also knocking down shots like that, that's a really good team. That's a really good team and I like it. And there was a couple times last night where I thought Randall, like, yes, like what it looks like he'll just take it right at Joker and just overpower him. And that's another thing he can do is go get an unassisted bucket in a way that some of these catch and shoot guys can't do.
- [09:04]
Bill Simmons
Sounds like he's won you over. It sounds like the Randle fan club might have to make room for you.
- [09:09]
Kurt Goldsberry
Dude, he is like the ultimate hot and cold analytics guy.
- [09:13]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [09:13]
Kurt Goldsberry
Even. There are even whole seasons, Bill, where you're like, this guy's terrible. And then the next season you're like, this guy's an all star.
- [09:19]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [09:20]
Kurt Goldsberry
If he has sort of a legacy for the stats nerds. It's like he is the hardest guy to pin down maybe in the whole league. And so he's been a frustrating guy to characterize even through the most advanced numbers over the last five years.
- [09:35]
Bill Simmons
Well, they also have this weird bench. Cause Shannon had a couple really good games for them. Like when they beat OKC by three last last month, end of February. Shannon played 29 minutes in that game. Alexander Walker played 35. McDaniels played 42. Nas played 40. They didn't have Gobert. They didn't have Randall. But they. They're able the ninth or 11 guys, which is something I think Cleveland has.
- [10:03]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yep.
- [10:03]
Bill Simmons
I think the Celtics have to some degree. And OKC has 20 guys. It literally doesn't matter on OKC, they could be like, oh, Jalen Williams isn't playing fine. We got three more guys. We could just slot in there. But I do like their depth. And they have a little more depth Minnesota than I was thinking. It also seems like they're getting a little more than McDaniels was starting to look like a possible worst contracts guy, but he got going too. And then, you know, the big thing for me when you're thinking about the late surgers is do you have like one of the best nine guys? Do you have one of the best eight guys? Do you have one of THE best six guys? Edwards is somewhere in the 10. You know, you could have him, you could have him eight, you could have nine, wherever. But during this little 24 game stretch where they're 16 and eight, he's 29 a game, 8.9 free throw attempts and 10.4 threes. And I mentioned that because I felt like the threes were too high before. And I ultimately, like, in the playoffs, I think the free throws have to be next to the threes. I want like in a playoff series, I want 10 and 10 from him. Something like that. But you know, he has some stinkers. Every once in a while. He'll have like the 6 for 19, he'll have the 7 for 29. But for the most part, like, I'm kind of happy where he's at in this season. After the season. Where are you at with him?
- [11:26]
Kurt Goldsberry
I think he's ready to be the best player on a Playoff team that's going to win one, maybe two rounds. It's hard for me to see them win in two rounds just out of respect for the rest of the West. Although one of the more sort of emergent stories with last night is they give the Nuggets a very difficult time. And it's not just last night. I think it's five straight against them. Yeah. And it is because Jamal Murray, who has been great, you know the Nuggets are yokich, you can set your watch by. This guy's going to be great. But Jamal Murray, they seem to have his number. And I think if you can slow down Jamal Murray, you have a good chance to beat the Nuggets in the playoffs. And I think this team is built to slow down the Jamal Murray's of the world because of their perimeter defenders. And I think Anthony Edwards is just the kind of fourth quarter crunch time score. Go get a free throw. Go get a bucket. I think he's there and I think they're really well rounded. The last thing I'd add, Bill, is I do like their coaching. I like their coaching staff. I think they're built for a playoff series. I think they make adjustments. I think they're not one of these coaching staffs that just goes in and does what they always do. So I like how they're built. And depending on the matchups, which I think is the biggest story in the Western Conference, Bill, going Into this last 20 game stretch, 15 game stretch, how these seeds shake out is going to be fascinating. Who gets who in the first round is going to determine a lot of who makes it to the conference finals. Because some of these matchups are really good for one side and really bad for the other. And. And I think that Minnesota Denver matchup is a great example of that.
- [13:08]
Bill Simmons
It's a great point. OKC 16, eight in their last 24, including four losses of either one or two points, fifth net rating. And they play OKC really well too, which we should mention Denver. They're built to be Denver and they have all these athletic wings to throw at Murray and they have size to throw. Not as much size as they had last year with Towns, but they still have a bunch of size to throw. Yokage and you know, there, it's just a good matchup for them. Doesn't mean they'll beat them in the playoffs, but it's a nice matchup. OKC was interesting because when they played those games and I thought those games were really fun to watch, there was a competitiveness. Fuck you athleticism piece that you rarely look physicality. You saw. We're going to talk about okc Boston in a second. Okc. Even though that I think the myth on them is they're undersized when they're really not anymore or they're skinny, they're really physical. And I thought. I think Minnesota likes it and they like playing it. And I thought those games, I thought that was a good sign for them, that they hung with them. They also have a lot of guys to throw at SGA who nobody has shut down all year, but they probably have the best chance, you know, and then. And they have a guy on their team who's not afraid of any of them. You mentioned the matchups, so I. We're taping this in the morning on Thursday and Golden State and Minnesota are basically fighting for the six seed. Golden State has 37 wins, Minnesota has 38. But Minnesota's played more games and there's a world where Minnesota gets six and Denver gets three. And that's our three six and Denver's like fucking a, God damn it. Why? Why is that? Our team, just the matchups in general, like Golden State, I'm sure, doesn't want to see Denver at all because Jokic, Jones, them. Yeah, Minnesota would be delighted to see Denver. You just go through and it's like what you said, it becomes a little rock, paper, scissory. I was waiting for Houston to drop out, but Houston's kind of hung on here. Houston still has a three game three loss lead over Golden State and a four loss lead over Minnesota and they're the five seed. And then the Lakers, who, you know, we don't know how long LeBron's going to be out. That's another team that could potentially drop, but they'd have to drop a lot down the stretch. So a lot of shit going on. But we could end up listening this Goldsberry. We could have Minnesota, Denver as a 3 6, we could have Golden State, Memphis as a 27 and we could have Lakers, Houston as the 4 or 5 with Madoka and Dylan Brooks against LeBron, the two guys who have really gone at him in the last two years. That'd be super fun. And then the other one that's in play is the one eight with OKC and the Clippers. You know, the Clippers trade SGA to okc. They make this. OKC has their pick this year and there's just all this history between those teams. So that would be the most fun version, I think, of the four matchups.
- [16:10]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, Another thing to watch on strength of schedule. Cause the Western Conference is brutal. Depending on how your schedule sort of shakes out. The Lakers and the Grizzlies are on the opposite end. They have a very tough remaining schedule. So the Lakers sort of hanging on to that fourth spot right now, as you mentioned, without LeBron James, the Rockets have won four straight. They could surpass them. You could see a world where the Lakers, the Timberwolves and the warriors are really good teams, but all going into these first round series as a road team and many of them with championship experience. Obviously the warriors and Lakers have some, some championship experience. So it's really interesting to me. I think in a nutshell, the hottest teams out west, not counting the Thunder, have been hot all year. Are the 6 and 7 right now in the warriors and Timberwolves. And that just. That just sets us up for a great, great first round. Not to mention the talent over there, the superstar talent, the all star talent fighting for these slots is just off the charts.
- [17:13]
Bill Simmons
Well, what's funny is Minnesota is a really good road team. They're 20 and 15 now on the road, which I think other than OKC is the best record in the West. The Clippers are a terrible road team. They're 14 and 20. I don't think the Lakers care where they play. And they're gonna, they're gonna have Laker fans at any. Whatever. I think it matters for Houston, though. Houston, I kept waiting to fall off and it felt like it was gonna happen a couple times, but they're kind of lingering around, hanging around. And Lakers. Houston would be a really, really fun kind of old school, new, new school series. I don't know how the Lakers are going to hold on if LeBron misses three to four weeks here. And who knows? We've seen him recover really fast sometimes and recover really slow other times when there was less at stake. But when you take him out of it. Yeah, but you take his. You take the rebounding defense, second playmaker thing on top of all the other stuff, they've already lost and it just feels like insurmountable for them.
- [18:14]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, they lost that game in Brooklyn the other night. And I think that's a fair indication of the kind of game they can lose.
- [18:20]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [18:21]
Kurt Goldsberry
You know, and again, the west is just jam packed. I think 2 to 5 is separated by a game or something like that. So you start losing at Brooklyn, you're going to drop. The Rockets, as you mentioned, are hot. They've won four straight. They're going to, they're going to win those kinds of games. So it is, I think it is fair to expect the Lakers are going.
- [18:41]
Bill Simmons
To drop and maybe their next ones are at Denver Friday. Home Sons, home Spurs might be able to go two and one in those three. Home Nuggets, home Bucks, home Bulls. Josh Giddy Renaissance is here at Orlando, at Indiana, at Chicago, at Memphis, home Rockets. That's the rest of the month. So they, they have to go 500 in that, in that stage. But do you care if you're the, if you're the 7 seed? So you're probably playing the Clippers in the 78 game. Right. With real stakes because you don't want to see any part of OKC in round one and you're playing the Clippers at home. Like it would suck to be the seventh seed and have the extra game. But if I'm Golden State, I'm fine, you know. All right, fine. We'll beat the Clippers in the seven eight and we'll just play the two seed. Like it's not a complete disaster. It's a disaster.
- [19:39]
Kurt Goldsberry
If you lose though, it's terrifying. You got Kawhi Leonard, Ty Lu on the other end. You got one game. I love the plan tournament because it makes these sets up for real meaningful games. And you know, I think the executives and the coaches at these teams much prefer the sixth slot to the seventh slot just because of the uncertainty, the stress.
- [20:00]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. You're locked in.
- [20:02]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. And you let you get another couple days to game plan your. Your three seed opponent in a playoff matchup. And that's a huge deal too. So.
- [20:09]
Bill Simmons
So do you like the 7, 8, 9, 10 or would you go 7, 10, 8, 9?
- [20:15]
Kurt Goldsberry
I like, I like how they have it because if you finish seventh, I think you got to get beat twice at home to get kicked out of. I like the format. I think the 78 format is cool. You know, win one and it gives you this advantage to get in. What are your thoughts on that?
- [20:31]
Bill Simmons
Part of me wonders if it should be 7, 10, 8, 9 and then the 7 still doesn't necessarily lose. It's not a win or go home for the 7 10. They would still get to play the 89 with home court, but the way they have it I think probably makes more sense. And the 78 is usually a really good game. I mean part of the problem with the playing this year is the 10 seed in both conferences sucks. Like we're, it's at least in the, in the west they have an excuse because of what happened to Dallas, the Zombie Mavericks.
- [21:05]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah.
- [21:05]
Bill Simmons
But they're still the ten seed. The Zombie Mavericks with Spencer Dinwiddie and I don't even know what center they'd have left. And P.J. washington. They might actually be the 10 seed. Phoenix is just like guys, we've been trying to make this clear for two months. We want to have the season from hell. We don't want to be in there. But you go to the the east and it's like, all right, Chicago, Chicago's 27 and 38. It might be in the. Might be in there. And then you look at Miami who's 29 and 36. They've lost five. Joe House on the Ringer gambling show for the last two weeks. He's convinced Miami's tanking. And his thing on the last two weeks on the Mariner gambling show is bet against them. Second half, live bet against them. They take a lead first half, then they throw it away second half. I don't know if that's true, but they're a fucking mess. And band looks terrible lately. Um, anyway that I think the 910 in the east has a chance to be one of the more depressing playing games we've had. Maybe the number one.
- [22:03]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. Bulls, Heat.
- [22:05]
Bill Simmons
Bulls Heat who don't even want their pick. Right.
- [22:09]
Kurt Goldsberry
You just hope that the Orlando Magic because the Magic in the Hawks, they could, they could be decent playoff teams if they awaken from, you know, these, these pretty dark stretches that.
- [22:20]
Bill Simmons
How long do we have to wait for Orlando?
- [22:22]
Kurt Goldsberry
Apparently longer than two months.
- [22:23]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. So Rudy's right. Magic are dead. Sucks. Is out for the year. Like I. The Magic are cross off to me. Atlanta at least has all of these wings when they get everybody back and healthy and then. And then the random Trey Young who the hell knows game. Yeah like that. And they have some size that could always be the Kongwu in a playing game with like 24 rebounds. I feel like Orlando's a cross off. Sorry, Cerutty.
- [22:49]
Kurt Goldsberry
I think the Cavs and Celtics deserve to have a pretty easy first round series. Oh man, I think they will.
- [22:55]
Bill Simmons
I mean look at this. The Cavs are going to get Orlando, Miami or Chicago unless one of those teams beats Atlanta. But yeah, I think Atlanta is like. I'm not going to say they're frisky, but they're 32 and 34. I've watched them a lot. I have a, I have an over bet on them and just in general I kind of enjoy watching them. And I think they're. They're not bad. You know they need the Western Johnson.
- [23:19]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, with Jalen Johnson. They're a good team.
- [23:21]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, the Hawks. Unfortunately, Jalen Johnson out for the year. But you know, this is why you believe in Zach Reesache. This is why he spent number one pick on him. Let's, let's take a break and then we'll talk about OKC in Boston. This episode is brought to you by Audi. The all new fully electric Audi Q6E Tron. A huge leap forward featuring effortless power, serious acceleration and the most advanced tech of any Audi ever. Experience technology that puts you center stage with a panoramic digital stage plus an optional screen for front seat passengers. That sounds fun. Perfect for watching the latest sports documentary. Maybe I made it. The Q6E Tron is not just a new EV. It's a new way to experience driving. Learn more@audiusa.com always pay careful attention to the road. Do not drive while distracted. You can cash in by balling out on FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. I checked, they're still number one every Friday night, the Ringers teaming up with FanDuel to give all customers a 30% profit boost. When you pick a player to score more than 30 points, this is a lot of fun. You can make a little more money, root for somebody to get 30. I tweet my picks on Friday. There's some good games on Friday, including Clippers, Atlanta, Memphis, Cleveland, Orlando, Minnesota. So we'll come up with a couple of good possibilities. And FanDuel, remember, is the home for all of your favorite prop bets. So whether you want to ride with my picks or make your own, just look for 30 on 30 in the FanDuel Sportsbook app or head to FanDuel.com BS for your chance to score a bigger payout this Friday night. Don't forget I'm going to tweet my pick. Make every moment more with FanDuel. You must be 21 + the President. Select states are 18 + and President DC opt and required bonus issued as non withdrawable profits. Boost tokens Restrictions apply including any token expiration and max wager amount seed terms@sportsbook.fander.com, game prom call win 800 gambler visit rg-help.com hey, before we talk about OKC in Boston, quickly, the bottom seven right now. Washington 13 wins, Utah 15, Charlotte 16, New Orleans 18. That's going to be our bottom four for capture the flag. Then we have Philly 22 wins, Brooklyn 22 wins, Toronto 23 wins. Rosello's furious. Toronto's making a run at their season over out of nowhere, even though they were supposed to be tanking. So Philly right now is in the five spot. They keep their pick if it's in the top six, and they're doing everything that they scratch Paul George for reasons that remain unclear for the season and beads out and Philly's going for it. And I think if they get the five spot, it'd be pretty hard for them to get jumped twice. So in a weird way, this could work out for our guy, Daryl Morey. You went to Sloan Conference in Boston. Weirdest Sloan Conference ever.
- [26:18]
Kurt Goldsberry
Well, Dorkapalooza, they did the. They named the transaction of the year and the Embiid extension did not win it.
- [26:25]
Bill Simmons
Didn't. Didn't get it.
- [26:26]
Kurt Goldsberry
Oh, wow. It was the Luka Doncic trade. The Luka Doncic trade. The Paul George deal did not get the transaction of the year, but it was given to the Los Angeles Lakers. But, yeah, I got to see the Boston Celtics Play. The Philadelphia 76 was more like the Delaware 87ers the night I chose to attend.
- [26:46]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, tough one, but tough one.
- [26:48]
Kurt Goldsberry
They're two and eight in their last 10. They are doing all they can, as they should. There's the saving the season for the Philadelphia 76ers is keeping that draft pick in a good draft. That would be really good draft.
- [27:01]
Bill Simmons
If you get in the top five in this draft, you're getting like, a legit dude.
- [27:05]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. And so they have to do this.
- [27:07]
Bill Simmons
How crazy would that be after all the hype and buzz about them if they ended up with like a top three pick? I mean, honestly, that'd be insane. What were the odds? I guess the odds were actually half decent.
- [27:22]
Kurt Goldsberry
I'll remember, even forget the Georgian and the Georgian and beat stuff. They have a pretty good young backcourt. McCain and Maxi here, like.
- [27:30]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [27:31]
Kurt Goldsberry
They could have a young core if they hit on this draft pieces. Yeah. So it's. It's crazy. I know the cap. They're in cap hell. They are in cap hell for the rest of this decade. But if they have rookie players playing overvalue, that's a pretty good deodorant for that situation.
- [27:47]
Bill Simmons
The Embiid thing's tough. We've been this down this road with injured, older centers, and you're just kind of held hostage by it for a couple years, and then somebody will write this story. And Bead's knee feels the best it's ever been. And Bead full scrimmage today. And then he plays two games, he gets hurt again. And it's just this cycle you don't want to be in Washington, Utah, Charlotte, New Orleans. The shocker in that group is New Orleans. We knew somebody in the west was going to have the year from hell, and they were a really good candidate. But for them to be in the top four of the lottery is nuts. With the kind of talent they have, I mean, honestly, that's crazy.
- [28:25]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, they're deep, they can survive a few injuries, you'd think, and still. But they've definitely had some injuries better than this.
- [28:34]
Bill Simmons
So here are my OKC Celtics takes. And we might, we might call my dad at the tail end because he went to the game after, after you go. But I. First of all, OKC has beaten Boston twice. And I watched both games and I thought they deserved to win both games. And I thought SGA was the best player in each game. There was no KP last night, but OKC didn't have Jalen Williams. So I'm not going to make excuses. The free throw advantage was way skewed toward okc. I thought that was more a result of how both teams played and what they're trying to do. The Celtics took 63 threes, which is fucking absurd. But the thing that. That has jumped out to me over and over again with okc, they play so fucking hard and they're so physical and they're so good defensively and the switching that they do and they're just so committed to a certain level of intensity and competitiveness is going to sound like I'm making an excuse for the Celtics, and I'm not. I think I've watched it over and over again. I think teams have a lot of trouble going through an NBA schedule. And then you play OKC and they're playing like they play and it's like you can see it like the guys and then the quotes after the game. Tatum said it, Jalen Brown said it. Like we didn't do a good job of matching their intensity. That's been. This is why this OKC team has been so special as a regular season team. They're fucking animals. You watch them. It's like every guy in the team is completely beasting out, going crazy. They're just like. And if you're not ready for it, you can see it and you can fight back, you can claw back. They do it again and they just over and over again make these teams look bad from how hard they're playing. So my question to you is, it's a one night thing that works. Could you get used to it over two weeks. If you're playing them in a series over the course of seven games, would you eventually figure out how to match what they're doing, at least competitively and physically?
- [30:30]
Kurt Goldsberry
I don't know if last year is a fair precedent, but yes, you could if you're. You have a really physical, strong front court like the Dallas Mavericks did. That seems like a thousand years ago now, but yeah, it seems. It seems like they are by far the most physical, nasty defense, and that depth really enables them to play, almost like with line changes. They had that perpetual sub story this year, this week, but they have such a great deep bench. But as you mentioned, they didn't have Caruso, who's one of the biggest dogs on the team, and they didn't have Jaylen Williams.
- [31:09]
Bill Simmons
Didn't matter. Didn't.
- [31:10]
Kurt Goldsberry
It didn't matter.
- [31:11]
Bill Simmons
Just other guys just came in flying around.
- [31:13]
Kurt Goldsberry
And one of the things that crossed my mind yesterday is that could the second five best players on Oklahoma Homeless City be a playoff team by themselves? That's the kind of thing I was thinking like, oh, my God, this team is so deep, right? You take one of the backup bigs, you take K's on Wallace, you know, you take one of the. Jalen Williams. They have so much talent, but the coolest thing about them is they're all aligned to play this ferocious defensive style. One of the crazy stats from that game last night, though, is like, okay, the 63 threes, we can talk about that. They play like that. And you only get 12 free throws. The Celtics only shot 12 free throws. Now, Celtics fans might say this or that or the other thing. A lot, like you said, has to do with your shooting.
- [31:56]
Bill Simmons
I mean, and it really was. It was nine free throws when the game was being decided. So they. They weren't getting the line at all.
- [32:01]
Kurt Goldsberry
The.
- [32:02]
Bill Simmons
The got three at the end.
- [32:03]
Kurt Goldsberry
And then here's the stat that I thought I was looking at it today. SGA again, was a magnificent player, but he drew 10 fouls himself on the Boston Celtics. He drew 10 fouls himself. He puts you in foul trouble, like it or not. And Jalen Brown was the Celtics player I was most sort of concerned with after this game because he was. He got off to a slow start. He sort of started getting hot in the fourth, but then he entered. He entered the fourth quarter with two fouls, and he fouled out with three and a half minutes left. What happened? SGA got him twice. SGA got him with some of the foul merchant stuff twice. His fourth and fifth fouls Nobody's going to remember that because they remember him fouling Chet at the end. But he had the fifth foul because of SGA's sort of antics there at the elbow. But SGA does that to you. Derek White fouled out at the end. Sga. It needs a nickname. Maybe the bonus because he's just always drawn Bonus. Yeah, they're just always in the bonus. When is Jalen Williams and Derrick White both foul out in regulation? I don't know.
- [33:12]
Bill Simmons
SGA is a pretty good nickname on its own. It's a good acronym. But the bonus is solid. I like that one.
- [33:18]
Kurt Goldsberry
Well, it just. I was looking it up. He's drawn 10 or more fouls by himself like 11 or 12 times this season.
- [33:25]
Bill Simmons
Well, it's funny, I was talking to obviously have a lot of Celtic fans in my life, some of whom don't watch a lot of okc. And all the Celtic fans were so mad at SGA for like the fucking foul baiting and all that stuff. And it's like this is. He does this every game. He's the hardest guy in the league to guard, like hands down. Rasol and I talked about it the other day and we're talking about the MVP stuff with him. Riokic. He's having one of the best guard seasons in the history of the league and I haven't seen a team figure out completely how to guard him yet. You can throw. It seems like part of the strategy is try to throw bigger guys on him like the Celtics did with Brown. You think on paper with Derek White and Drew Holiday, perfect guys to go against him. But he always gets the matchup he wants. He always gets the shot he wants. He's always either able to get to the rim, get a foul or do a little pull up. And I haven't seen anyone stop him yet. And if you're going to make the case for OKC to win the title, it's like they play harder than everybody else and nobody can stop their best guy. Seems like two pretty good things.
- [34:26]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, you can't hate him for what he's doing. I mean he. Like we define athletes in different ways, but in the 2000s we really started to understand like guys who can change direction and decelerate better than other guys are athletes. Those are the, those are top tier athletes. We learned that with Luka and Harden. But this guy just makes it so hard to have proper defensive position, even for guys like Derrick White and Jaylen Brown who are incredible at that. And. And then he layers on this off arm Harden ism where he snakes his left arm when he's dribbling with his right hand into anybody's defensive arms and then he flails and it's. There it is. And that's what happened to Jalen Brown on first fifth foul last night. So he's.
- [35:14]
Bill Simmons
Most scorers do this though. That, that like the thing that. The reason I still think Brunson's the best. The best flop foul baiter guy is he's also doing it off the ball. He's doing it when he's on defense. He's just flopping around like a marlin. SGA is just purely trying to get to the free throw line. Yeah, well, there's like whatever trick I can do to get it.
- [35:34]
Kurt Goldsberry
I looked it up. There's three guys who are drawing six fouls themselves per game. In other words, they're fouling out the equivalent of a player on the other team every game. And it's. You got Jalen Brunson, your favorite. There's SGA and then there's the one guy who actually deserves to be on that list. Bill, which is the most physical assaulting player in the league right now, which is Giannis, who?
- [35:55]
Bill Simmons
I thought you were gonna say Scoot Henderson.
- [35:58]
Kurt Goldsberry
Well, and. And Celtics.
- [36:00]
Bill Simmons
My guy is back. Scoot Henderson, Marcelo and I are alive. I'm so excited. Dude, the Knicks, he was unbelievable. He looked like 10 Russell Westbrook yesterday. I was going nuts.
- [36:12]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, he's still right. He's. We're good. We're good on the Scoot island or whatever you call it. But I would say the Celtics fans also can't complain about this off arm hijinks that Jason Tatum and. And Jaylen Brown both played.
- [36:24]
Bill Simmons
Listen it that that game played the hits for things that are going to drive Celtic fans crazy. Tyler Ford as the ref. Um, just, just. I think there's a lot of. A lot of he doesn't like us stuff. The free throw advantage spoke for itself. SGA is super frustrating. And then Jalen had his worst game in a couple years, you know, and you can't survive no KP and a horrible Jalen game like that if you're going positives for the Celts. Tatum was awesome again. I mean I, I just feel like he's gone up. Rosella and I, we talked a couple weeks ago about. I still feel like it's in play that he could make go to that last level. Marcillo thought I was being a little too optimistic on it. I think he's at least gone up a half level. And I think there's an intensity and competitiveness to that that I just don't feel like was totally there. That physicality that is just at another level. There are also Maz is putting a bunch of minutes on him, which I like and don't like, but like he played 45 against the Lakers and I think 42 last night and he wants to be out there. And I think that's the best thing the Celtics have going for them right now.
- [37:34]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, I think bigger win for the Thunder than it was a loss for the Celtics. And same, I would say about that Cleveland win in the same building a couple weeks ago, that comeback win, that was bigger for Kenny Atkinson and the Cavs to win in that building for what's coming down the road again, I don't think there's anything to worry about. If there's one thing to worry about in Boston and it's Christoph Sporzingis, like, get well, Silver.
- [37:59]
Bill Simmons
Weird injury.
- [37:59]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, yeah, let's get that guy back. He needs to to get there before I make any judgment about where the Celtics are in this title defense. But dude, he hasn't been there and that's an issue. We need to get him back in the fold to see this fully fledged Celtics title defense because I think teams like Boston OKC are good enough to beat them without Christophe Porzingis. I think that's one of the lessons we've learned over the last few weeks, that the Celtics team isn't quite as dominant as they were last year and maybe that there's better candidates to upset them in the postseason than there were last year.
- [38:35]
Bill Simmons
Well, there's definitely hungrier candidates and hunger becomes such a big part of this as the season goes along. I it's funny. Like I'll get texts from people sometimes or I'll hear it on a show or a podcast and people, we have to do this thing now about OKC is not getting enough credit. When will people start talking about okc? First of all, I think people are talking about them and we did this on Sunday. I'm at the point with this where if you're not taking OKC and Cleveland seriously as the two best teams in the league that have the two best chances to win the title. I just feel like you're not watching the season. They're passing. Cleveland's had two 15 game winning streaks. I don't know what else they have to show us. That team is awesome and Mitchell is having a great year and if like they play OKC in a series, he'll think he's as good as sj. Like, to me, they check all the boxes and okc now that Chet's back. That was one. We're gonna talk to my dad, I think later. But my dad came away like he hadn't really seen a great check game in person. Chet's been a fucking beast since he came back, you know? And I just think they can go small and big. I think OKC is awesome. I think beating them in a series is going to be really, really, really hard. Especially with their good home team, too. They get a good crowd. It's a weird place to play. Their fans are, like, really rabid. They affect the game, they affect the refs. And I don't know, I just like, they're the favorite on FanDuel for a reason. They have the best team and they have a guy who can score on every team in the league whenever he wants. That matters.
- [40:14]
Kurt Goldsberry
Dude. I remember it was Tim's last season. I think I was at the spurs. And yeah, we had the playoff series up there. And that place is insane. It's a very difficult place.
- [40:23]
Bill Simmons
It hurts your head. That was my takeaway in the 2012 finals. I actually had a headache after the home games. It was like, this is too loud. My head hurts.
- [40:32]
Kurt Goldsberry
Not to go full spurs deja vu, but it was like that 2012 spurs team was so great. Do you remember that? That the team didn't make the finals and OKC came back with Harden and a Baka and took them out. The spurs are one of those things.
- [40:46]
Bill Simmons
I wrote the Grantland piece after the spurs killed somebody about how this had a chance to be like a generational team. And I think OKC swept them. After I wrote the piece like they were up.
- [40:58]
Kurt Goldsberry
They won game two, like by 30 at home in San Antonio and then didn't win the rest of the series. That building is a very, very difficult place.
- [41:06]
Bill Simmons
Well, especially when you have. You're putting young and hungry guys in there and you know, look, you look at the game yesterday and you go back and watch the fourth quarter, which I did this morning. The Celts missed wide open shots, a bunch of them in the fourth quarter. Whereas OKC actually made some shots. And the big guy you have written behind you, I think. Cause you want to remind yourself to talk about him, was Wallace. Wallace made the two dagger shots of the game. And Wallace was awesome. And Wallace is one of those guys, like, I do the trade value list. I was like, where does this guy go? Because there's no way they're trading him, what's he worth? Like he. If somebody's like, yeah, we'll do this, we'll give you this awesome player. Give us back Wallace and some picks. Presti's going to go, no thanks. You know what I'm doing? I'm actually going to keep Wallace. Thanks. Thank you though. Thanks for your interest.
- [41:54]
Kurt Goldsberry
They can't pay all these guys and Wallace has written on my board because he, he deserves to be because he played really well last night. Starter made those big shots made.
- [42:04]
Bill Simmons
He's a great five of six, great.
- [42:06]
Kurt Goldsberry
Shot blocking guard like Derek White. He loved.
- [42:10]
Bill Simmons
Awesome.
- [42:10]
Kurt Goldsberry
And just another great young two way player in Oklahoma City.
- [42:14]
Bill Simmons
By the way, 21 years old, born on November 2003. Two years in, they have him at least for two more. You know, I SGA, I'm sure will work with them a tiny bit for salary stuff, but they're going to have to pay Chet and they're going to have to pay Wallace and they're going to have to play Jalen Williams on top of sga. That's going to be really hard.
- [42:42]
Kurt Goldsberry
Dort and yeah, like Wallace. Isaiah Joe. Isaiah Joe. So SGA took his, his, his rest at the beginning of the fourth last night. Yeah, Celtics were making noise and then he hit his own like killer three at the top of the arc. Yeah, the depth, I think this has come up with a couple of the teams we really like out west. Depth is going to be a real separator. It gives you versatility, it gives you sort of injury insurance. And Oklahoma City has the biggest depth. I think your team had the most depth in a way last year. Just could play so, so well this, this year. I think the Thunder and the Cavs can match that. I couldn't agree more.
- [43:21]
Bill Simmons
Well, the other thing is OKC has way better variables than the Celtics do. If you're telling me I'm getting everybody for four rounds with the Celtics, I feel great. But I have Horford, Who's I think 39, who's still playing 28 minutes a game and they're still counting on him in a real way. I have Drew Holliday who's 34, has got a fucked up hand. I have Porzingis who I just have no idea when he's playing and when he's not playing at this point. And it's like a pleasure to see him, but I don't trust that he's going to be out there 100% of the time. I have Pritchard who's hit or miss depending on the game and the matchup. Whereas, like, I look at okc and it's like, it would really have. Something weird would have to happen for any of those guys to get hurt. They're all young. They're all, you know, same thing for Cleveland. It's a mostly young team that's, you know, you'd have, like, Darius Garland got hurt last year because he broke his jaw, hit him in the head. Um, but I just think the durability and consistency of those young guys, when you combine the hunger piece of it, it's. It's going to be a challenge for the Celtics. This is going to be a way different journey for them this year. Like, even right now, they're 2 7. They'll play the Hawks. Let's say the Hawks are the seventh seed. They'll beat the Hawks. That's not going to be like, the most fun series. Like the Hawks are. You know, they're. They're. They're not going to roll over. Then they'll have the Knicks or Detroit in round two. That's not going to be easy. And then they play Cleveland or Milwaukee, probably. And that's before we get to the finals. And I need all my guys to stay healthy the whole time. Like, it's. It's just going to be way harder.
- [44:56]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. Well, the Indiana Conference finals last year. Right. That, you know that this is going to be leveled up.
- [45:02]
Bill Simmons
So that could be every round.
- [45:04]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah.
- [45:05]
Bill Simmons
And they won last year, which you can't sleep on. Like, it's so much harder to do it the second time.
- [45:10]
Kurt Goldsberry
Let me ask you this, Detroit, New York, if you had to pick that series right now, who are you taking?
- [45:15]
Bill Simmons
I will. So I watched the entire Knicks Portland game last night as my wife and I also watched Paradise. So I had on the iPad, watch going back, kind of back. Paradise is the perfect show you can watch while you're also doing something else. The Knicks have had. They pulled out some of these late ones, and I kind of think they needed that game last night. I thought Bridges really needed it. Bridges had. Was threatening and just become like this appendage. And I thought that was a really big game for them. Towns hit a couple huge threes down the stretch in the fourth quarter, but I actually think these. This Brunson injury, which you never want anybody to get hurt, but I think it's a. It's a weirdly okay thing for them because now they have to use this different muscle. I thought they were way too reliant on him. And now it's like, hey, guys, Mikhail Bridge is A good offensive player. Maybe you should give him the ball every once in a while. Hey, Towns is a good matchup of the last two minutes of a game. So I think they're going to figure some things out about the supporting cast that's going to help him when he comes back.
- [46:20]
Kurt Goldsberry
That's all good. Good analysis. What I see on my, my end of the efficiency landscape is over the last 15 games, Detroit has the second best net rating in the entire NBA.
- [46:29]
Bill Simmons
I know, it's, I've, I look at this constantly and I'm, it's. They're the one outlier where you're like, why is this team there?
- [46:35]
Kurt Goldsberry
It's because they have, you know, Kate Cunningham, Malik Beasley. Malik Beasley turning into Klay Thompson. I don't think many of us predicted that, but he is averaging like 43% three point range. Clay Thompson, yeah, he's shooting almost 10 a game and he's making 43% of them. It's one of the best catch and shoot seasons of all time. And you know, they are playing great defense in a way that the Knicks are not, I think.
- [47:04]
Bill Simmons
Well, and they rebound. The rebounding is the other thing. They get second chances. They control the boards, they have size and they're nasty. It's like a nasty team.
- [47:15]
Kurt Goldsberry
I wouldn't want to play him if I were the Knicks, but you know, want to see where the Knicks get home. But anyway, I just thought, throw that in there.
- [47:22]
Bill Simmons
I like that every guy in the Pistons is ready to get in a fight. Talked about it before, but I just, I love their attitude on everything. And by the way, they have a realistic chance to get the four seed. So we're taping this Thursday morning. Milwaukee's 36 and 28, Indiana's 36 and 28. Detroit's 37 and 29.
- [47:40]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yes.
- [47:41]
Bill Simmons
And playing better net rating wise. Name a stat from the last 25 games. I'm going to look it up right now as we're talking just last 25. This is nuts. I have all these bookmarks for the net ratings and I have like 15, 25 and 20. Detroit 69, the last 25 and their six defensive rating. And do they, they have the second best D as you mentioned. Like that's a, that's not a small sample size. 25 games is fucking, that's almost two, two months. It's like seven weeks.
- [48:18]
Kurt Goldsberry
And they have a great offensive player. And I know if you haven't gotten a chance to enjoy the Cade Cunningham breakout season. Wow.
- [48:26]
Bill Simmons
Beyond the breakout, would you Vote for him for most improved.
- [48:31]
Kurt Goldsberry
Most improved. Who are our candidates?
- [48:34]
Bill Simmons
I'll give you him right now. Do you have a vote? I can't remember.
- [48:37]
Kurt Goldsberry
No, I do not have a vote.
- [48:38]
Bill Simmons
I have a vote, so I'm not allowed to bet on this. I always want to mention that. Oh, there it is. Yeah. Oh, he's the favorite. Minus 270.
- [48:45]
Kurt Goldsberry
Is Mobley in there?
- [48:46]
Bill Simmons
Dyson Daniels is plus 220. Mobley's 100 to 1.
- [48:51]
Kurt Goldsberry
Now I will get the crazy one.
- [48:53]
Bill Simmons
Is Pritchard as the favorite for six man at minus 240. Malik Beasley's plus 300, which tells me nobody's watching the Pistons. Cause I would have thought Beasley should be the favorite at this point with how important he is. And he's like their, you know, their number two. Crunch time guy and I tie. Jerome is down to 25 to 1. It used to be 55 to 1. I think he's in there too. And then I Guess Nas at 25 to 1. I don't really think of him as a bench guy because it feels like he starts so much and there's always somebody hurt, but he's in there too. Who would you have? Would you go Beasley?
- [49:24]
Kurt Goldsberry
No, I'd go Cade because I think it is the most significant.
- [49:27]
Bill Simmons
Oh, for improved. You go Cade.
- [49:29]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. What was the other. Oh, Beasley is six man.
- [49:31]
Bill Simmons
Yes.
- [49:31]
Kurt Goldsberry
I mean, as a nerd who loves catch and shoot stats like this guy, this season is incredible. It's, it's, it's up there with the, the best catch and shoot seasons we've ever seen.
- [49:41]
Bill Simmons
Well, you know, you know what with the thing with Beasley that I noticed at the end of games when they're coming out of timeouts and the other team knows they're probably going to run a play with him coming around on a three and they're like treating him like he's Klay Thompson in 2016. This is not. This is now like, oh, this is a nice story. We've, we're well beyond that. Teams are treating him like he's a real guy because he's been a real guy.
- [50:01]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. And what he brings to that team's offense, that needs more offense is, is very important to their, their recent success. And Cade is a perfect distributor. I love what they're doing and they, they are not. I think you're right. Milwaukee and Indiana sort of fading while they're scorching. I don't think they'll end up as a six seed, which should be good news for Knicks fans, there's just no.
- [50:24]
Bill Simmons
Good stats with Milwaukee. Like last 25, they're 12th, right? Last 20, they're 16th. And then you go, if we do well, last 15, same thing. They are, they are. Jesus. Oh, ninth. That's not bad for last 15. So there's signs of life, I guess. But last. But Detroit's played better for them for seven weeks is I guess, the big point. Let's take one more break and then let's do our thing. I'm really excited for this. All right, so when I was in Austin, Texas last month for a live show, we, we went to your sports business class at the University of Texas in Austin. Had a bunch of really smart people who had been working for a while on a big project. So you explain what the project was.
- [51:30]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. So when the semester began, I'll take you back to January of 2025 and you and Rosillo and a bunch of people were doing check ins on the NBA vibe. And at that time the story was ratings are way down. And so we designed a case around what's going on with the NBA and what would you do to change it? And we had a bunch of students, like 40 or 50 students and we'd work with FanDuel, they'd send us some of their handle data which was really interesting. So to go beyond just TV ratings and look at betting handle as a proxy for interest in the league as a sort of.
- [52:05]
Bill Simmons
Especially the live betting and the. Yeah, all that stuff.
- [52:08]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. Because the theory is like whether you gamble or not, I think we would all admit if there are more bets on a game, that probably means more people are paying attention to it. It might not just be on in the background. People are actually paying attention to it. And you know, the, the, the, the key thing we found right away is that it is a good proxy for interest. It mimics a lot of the TV ratings stuff we saw early in the season, which sort of troughed in December and rebounded with that famous Christmas night game between the, the Lakers and Warriors. And now we're slightly down year over year. But I had the students like, hey, what would you do? What would you recommend to the commissioner of the NBA to improve the popularity of our broadcasts and the overall league itself.
- [52:52]
Bill Simmons
So right now the season is 82 games. It starts on October 22nd. This year it ended on April 13th. It's 24 weeks, 82 games. The playing is the mid April 1st three rounds of the playoffs. This year starts April 19th, ends June 2nd. So it's seven plus weeks for those three rounds. And the final starts June 5th and ends June 22nd. And your students decided what?
- [53:21]
Kurt Goldsberry
Gotta start it later. Move the start 45 days later in the calendar. Now their opening day is in December. You still get that Christmas slate. And you go into July, Bill. And this is really for one main reason, which is to get away from the monster that is football, specifically NFL and college football, which hogs all of our attention. It hogs my attention. In the fall, it hogs your attention. And we think that there's a compelling case for the NBA to consider moving out from under that boot of the football attention and then in attention economy. I think if you play more of your games in January, February, March, April, May, June, July, there's a much better chance for better television audiences and other sort of signs of interest.
- [54:16]
Bill Simmons
So two things with that, they're launching the season October 22nd. They're going against the World Series. They're going against the NFL. Season has really kicked into gear. All the teams are starting to play better. It's like the height of college football.
- [54:31]
Kurt Goldsberry
The presidential election.
- [54:33]
Bill Simmons
Oh, yeah. Every four years, a presidential election is coming, and they're just popping right in the middle of that. And people are like, cool, thanks. They're going the way they have it structured now. They're basically going against the NFL for the first 11 weeks of the NBA season. So it's like 45% of the season. They're just going head to head against the NFL. Now the playoffs, there's less games. Eventually, they have the. I talked about how stupid this was a couple weeks ago. NFL ends, super bowl ends. The NFL. The NBA has already done their trade deadlines. So they lose that whole bump from whenever that happens. And then they go right to the All Star break. And what happens during the All Star break? There's no basketball, and everybody's complaining about how bad all Star weekend is. So that's your first arrival. And then what always happens is we hit the end of February and there's good basketball games, and people are like, whoa, the NBA has got really good. It's like, no, the NBA was really good, actually. You just. You. You were concentrated on the football. So I was like, 45 days seemed like a lot to me. And I did all these different. I. I sketched it out a bunch of different ways. And I think 45 days is around the right number. So the first thing I did was 42. So if you move everything 42 days, that's six weeks.
- [55:48]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yep.
- [55:48]
Bill Simmons
Right. That starts the season on December 3rd. The week after Thanksgiving, at least that that's what would have happened this year. You start December 3, 24 weeks, ends May 25, play in May 27 to May 30, first three rounds, May 31 ends July 21, and then the finals go. July 24 ends August 10. That seems too late to me. I love second. To me, the goal should be, how do we get away from football as much as possible? How do we take advantage of all of June instead of having the finals end on June 18, June 19? Why are we throwing away June? And then could July really work for us? And I think we both agree it could. And your students, I mean, talk about the case they made for July.
- [56:42]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, July, traditionally. And we had. We were lucky enough. Bob Iger came to our class a couple weeks before and said there's a metric called huts households using television that traditionally says July is a no fly zone on television. Like, that's why there's no new shows. But with streaming and the changing landscape of media consumption, even he was saying this is no longer the case. Like, July is open for business. There's streamers that are launching huge shows during the summer now. I think it's a little bit antiquated to say that there's no business case for playing.
- [57:17]
Bill Simmons
It's a lot antiquated. Yeah. I don't think this shit matters anymore. The whole model of, like, TV goes from September to May, and we have three networks and we release stuff and we have sweeps and, like, it's fucking out. Shows can hit any time of the year.
- [57:31]
Kurt Goldsberry
And if you're on vacation, you have. You bring your cable package with you. All of us are bringing Hulu or YouTube TV or whatever it is with us wherever we're going. I do think it is a fair criticism, Bill, to say that the NBA Finals being in July would be annoying to a lot of the key stakeholders, whether those are the players, the coaches, the executives, the people running the buildings. People in Phoenix or Los Angeles might not want to be in town in July. Those kinds of thoughts are relevant here. But ultimately, I think there is a strong business case to be made that we could play the playoffs in the finals later in the spring than we currently do. That's where I landed. That's where the students landed. And I think it's compelling enough the league should consider it.
- [58:21]
Bill Simmons
Well, so there's two big things. One, the number of weeks you could just get away from football is just a 100% positive. That's it. You're not equal to football. You're not going to be. It's a way bigger audience. You don't have the gambling fantasy stuff that football has. You don't have the ability for everybody to mobilize around Sundays. And football is getting better and better at doing their own schedule. They're better at, oh, here's a Friday game. Oh, now we're going to have two Christmas games. Oh, now we're going to tackle Saturdays. Like football is just going to get better and better at killing the NBA during these first two months. So the more you can get away from that, the better. And then I just feel like for the NBA, April, May, June, July should be the peak months and all of July. So one of the things I was looking at, if you moved everything 42 days, but you had a 76 game regular season, so everybody loses three home games, three away games. Sorry, you guys just signed a $76 billion deal, you'd be fine. That would start the season on December 3rd, but ended on May 11th. 22 weeks, 76 games playing, May 13th to May 16th, first three rounds, May 17th to July 7th. Now we're talking finals, July 10th to July 27th. And now all we've done is we've targeted basically post NFL draft our three best months of the season. We don't have to worry about the NFL at all. It's out. And the only thing we'd have to worry about is the freaking Olympics. But I don't think the NBA players should send our guys to the Olympics anyway, so we're fine with that. So I've asked NBA people about this in the past and they said the biggest reason they wouldn't move it is because of the summer schedule. Because we need our summers. It's the two months off, our kids are home from school, whatever counter, you'd still have August during July. You're working anyway with the Vegas summer league. That's become like a, almost a two week event. I would get rid of Vegas summer league completely and use that so that we're done. July 27, the draft is July 31. Tone down summer league, don't make it this huge thing. And then you basically get August and September and half of October off before we get the priest. That makes way more sense to me.
- [60:47]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, I think it would make way more money too. And there's one word that hasn't come up which explains why it isn't like this already, and that's baseball. When the NBA started avoiding baseball on the calendar, was that that era's version of avoiding football now?
- [61:03]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [61:04]
Kurt Goldsberry
You know Mickey Mantle on the Yankees. We can't compete with that. Like let's, let's start our season right after the World Series. Like that's, that was the logic. This is now an updated version of that where Mickey Mantle and the Yankees is now Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. And one further point, what did Disney just do this week or last couple of weeks is get off of their baseball relationship. That's one of the major media partners. And they need inventory later into the spring and summer. There's no Sunday night baseball anymore. Well, let's put the first round of the playoffs into April, May, June, and give them more summertime content for those, those key moments because they're also strapped down with football for the entire fall too. So I think there's a lot of compelling reasons to think about this from a media perspective and as a league that's trying to gain more eyeballs and revenue in an attention economy that's increasingly competitive and increasingly in the sports world dominated by, by both pro football and high level college football in the fall.
- [62:11]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, if you're being smart about this, everything moving later also means the trade deadline is after the NFL season. Your All Star break and All Star Game, if you have one now that's moving to mid March, maybe even during March Madness, maybe you just don't have an All Star Game anymore and you just have All Star break is March Madness. I still love Chris Ryan's idea of having All Star break actually just be bye weeks with 10 team bye weeks, three weeks in a row where each set of 10 teams gets one week off. And I would get rid of the All Star Game. I don't think it works that they want to have some sort of big corporate event, make that the NBA cup whenever you have that. But the big thing to me that we know we're right is because some of the stuff that they're already doing is a reaction to the fact that football is just killing them. Right. Moving the TNT Barkley show from Thursdays to Tuesdays during the NFL season is a direct concession that you're getting destroyed on Thursday nights. Just period. Doing this NBA cup thing is a direct concession that nobody gives a shit about the NBA in late October, November and December. And you need to do something to be like, hey, we're over here. They just need to move it. And here's the other thing, Kurt Goldsberry. We know expansion's coming, 32 teams. If there's ever a time to go to a 69 game schedule, it's when they do These expansion teams because 32 games, you play the other 31 teams twice, right? You have four 18 divisions. So you play everybody twice and you play everyone in your vision one more time. And it's 69 games total. All right, so let's start the season December 10th. Let's end it May 4th. Let's play a 20 week season. Let's start the play in May 6th and May 9th. Let's play the first three rounds May 10th to June 30th and let's start the finals July 3rd and on July 20th with a 69 game schedule. There's no fucking way you can tell me that's not going to be better for the NBA.
- [64:18]
Kurt Goldsberry
If attention is good, then that's better. And I think the other thing you mentioned in there is like make the NBA cup the All Star game right after the Super Bowl. That's our welcome back to the NBA moment for football. It's a, it's such a great format. Shout out to the NBA for adding that. It, it really makes those, those meaningful one game events that the NFL has taught us are so great. But the NBA cup is a winning addition to the calendar. And I think you're right. I think we could survive in July. I don't know about summer league in August. That's a, that's a tricky part. There will be people who are annoyed.
- [64:54]
Bill Simmons
You just have it for the. Don't make it as big of a thing as it was and just make it like I thought if you're going to do a counter on this. The hardest thing to figure out is the college season ends. Kids graduate, but you wouldn't be able to have the draft until July and end of July. So none of those kids would know where they're playing, who they're working out for for an extra six weeks. That's not nothing. Maybe you have the draft between the regular season, the playoffs, I don't know. But that's the only part I couldn't figure out.
- [65:24]
Kurt Goldsberry
Well, so let's say, you know, early April, college season ends. You know, if we're not starting until December, who cares if the draft is not till the August or whatever. I think that's fine.
- [65:36]
Bill Simmons
Right? Those kids are all working out on themselves. All right, Screw the rookies. So just, I'm going to go through this one more time. 69 game regular season, once we have 32 teams starts December 10th, ends May 4th. We could even say we'll give everyone next week, it'll start May 11th. But let's say May 4th, the playoffs are done. First three rounds on June 30th, finals goes July 3rd, right before July 4th, which would be cool through July 20th, and we're done on July 20th. So we basically. If you shorten the season and then move it and it's a month longer, and now I'm concentrating on my best stuff in May, June, July. That's how you win. And this is how they have to think. And if they don't start thinking this way, I'm gonna really start thinking that they need to leadership at the top. I know they got this giant media deal, but these are easy fixes that they should do well.
- [66:27]
Kurt Goldsberry
And the other thing that I think is starting to percolate out there is this rumor of alternate leagues coming around. And I think.
- [66:34]
Bill Simmons
Not a rumor anymore.
- [66:35]
Kurt Goldsberry
It's not a rumor anymore. And I wonder, in an era where Liv golf came in and this Saudi soccer thing came in, if the league keeps jamming us up with 82 games and making it such a slog, if they don't show some concession to the athletes or the players, are they making these rival league potentials more attractive to some of their talent around? And you can call me crazy all you want. I'm. All I'm saying, if you follow soccer or golf, you've just seen this. Those things weren't going to be real until they were. I think there's a real chance the NBA needs to be proactive here. That's what I would say. Keep being proactive. Don't be reactive here. There's a chance to make the NBA better. And if you look at the numbers, I think it was Lakers, Celtics, biggest broadcast of the year.
- [67:25]
Bill Simmons
Perfect.
- [67:25]
Kurt Goldsberry
When did that happen? After the NFL. If you put that game on wild card Saturday, you're done. Nobody watches that. And you put it instead in March. And Here we have 5 million people watching and on American television. That's a big deal. That's the kind of incremental improvement we could ramp up across the business if we got out of the way of football.
- [67:51]
Bill Simmons
Well, one of the cool things that your students did, I mean, there's all this anecdotal evidence we have anyway that football is just destroying everyone else and that it's an absolute monster. But then the college football piece, not just NFL, where college football really crests from the end of August, mid November, probably. And then we start getting it. So it's probably mid November range. So you're going against two monoliths every weekend. Right. I just don't know why you would do that. If you don't have to. The only thing, my big takeaway, and I didn't really think about it until I was in your class, it makes zero sense to start on October 22, October 23, anywhere in October, it's fucking stupid. They shouldn't do it anymore. And if they're going to move, if they want to move it to mid November, even that makes more sense, right? But first week of December makes the most sense and they just have to start thinking that way. And I really think, like, if you're just trying to get like basketball, NBA nirvana for how a season should go, it should be 69 games, it should start in December and it should end in July. And they're going to win if they do that one.
- [68:56]
Kurt Goldsberry
So one of the people at the NBA told me is like, you know, we came up with the NBA cup and as a way to sort of help the owners compensate for a loss of regular season inventory. And when confronted with the, the idea, hey, let's go down to 70 games or 74 games, we're going to add this inseason property to, to, to compensate for that, we'll sell it to a media partner. The owners, of course, came back with, well, why don't we do 82 games and the in season tournament and not lose any money? So I think somebody needs to do a better job of convincing owners and players that somehow we're going to make the same amount of total revenue if we drop the games to 70, 69, whatever we decide. Because right now that's the case that has failed to make it across the table and land with the owners. And that's the simple reason why we still have 82 games.
- [69:45]
Bill Simmons
Hey, I have a question. How much fucking revenue do you need? We're going to have guys making $75 billion a year. Like, how much is. How much is enough? You just signed a $76 billion deal. Like, do what's best for the sport, try to grow the sport, and this is the best way to do it. You mentioned the alternative league. So it's, it's being pushed by Maverick Carter, who's LeBron, one of his business guys. And when I heard about it, I thought it was, I just thought it was bullshit because I didn't think it was real. Because I thought initially everyone thought those guys were getting the Vegas team. And then I think it's wide open. I don't think they have any inside track at all. And in fact, there's other groups that I would bet on before them. And I thought this was A ploy by them to pretend they're doing, raising Saudi money and blah, blah, blah, and ultimately, all right, we'll drop it if we get the Vegas team. That's not the case. They have got a shitload of money for this and a plan and everything I've heard is that it's kind of real. I don't know if they have all the money yet, but they have enough that could you form a six team league and convince five, six, seven stars to basically jump when their contracts. I think the contracts would have to be over. But I look at Luka, he's down in 26. Like, that's somebody. Like, all right, if he's. Could this be a live situation? What does he carry? Does that mean loyalty to the NBA? He just got traded. So, like, could you pay, could you build a league and have like six, seven lose Luca type guys? Hey, Luca, here's $100 million a year. You're playing a 35 game season and you're going to be one of the faces of this league. I think it's real and I think the NBA owners are a little more worried about it than I think has been reported so far.
- [71:28]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. Imagine a world where you get paid more money to play less basketball and travel around the world.
- [71:33]
Bill Simmons
Way less basketball.
- [71:34]
Kurt Goldsberry
Way less basketball. Right. Imagine a world where you're paid more money to play less basketball, travel around the world. You get to live if you're Luca. I'm not. I haven't heard anything. But if you're Luca, you can live in Slovenia and make these flights to Singapore or Manila or Shanghai to play in this touring style, F1, almost structured basketball league again. Anybody who's followed soccer or golf knows this could happen. This could. It's happened. So to sit here and say this is, this is, this is impossible. Is to be naive.
- [72:11]
Bill Simmons
And it's also that we're in a world right now where rich people throw money at sports stuff. It's just a fact. We're in a world now where the Saudis and everybody on that side of the world is pumping incredible amounts of money into UFC and the WWE and boxing. Like, they've completely transformed boxing. To think that they couldn't decide to just do that with basketball is nuts.
- [72:34]
Kurt Goldsberry
It's nice. Basketball is legitimately a global sport now in the NBA, it is a global league. To its credit. I got to go to Paris and watch NBA games, but there was two games on the continent of Europe all year long. People in the Philippines would kill to see this level of basketball People in China, people in Europe, people in Africa, Australia. This is truly a global game, unlike baseball or football. And so I think that makes it even more attractive to somebody to come through and try to disrupt it. Because you know what? Memphis and Cleveland, those are cool cities, but so are Singapore and Shanghai, and there's real money around there.
- [73:14]
Bill Simmons
You mentioned that it's a global game. They also have players that I think, unlike with some of the golfers, you have players that have huge social media footprints, that if they switched leagues or went or did something else, they'd actually be able to promote themselves. And it's like, I remember when my contract was almost up with ESPN and it seemed like people thought I was gonna leave and they were writing about it. It's like, well, you can't leave espn. Can't leave the machine. It's like, guess what? And then all of these people over the next 10 years, including myself, were able to leave and start stuff, and it's like, you don't need the fucking machine. I don't think the basketball players need the machine. I think if they were part of another league, I think people would pay attention to it.
- [73:56]
Kurt Goldsberry
Dude, down here in Texas, there's, like, more than one of my friends, multiple friends, Mavericks fan friends, that are not joking when they say, I'm rooting for the Lakers this year.
- [74:05]
Bill Simmons
Right?
- [74:05]
Kurt Goldsberry
Like, maybe these brands aren't as strong as we think they are in the. In the social media era where you.
- [74:12]
Bill Simmons
Say, oh, Luke is on.
- [74:14]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. Oh, I'm.
- [74:15]
Bill Simmons
Kids, follow the players.
- [74:16]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. Shout out to Jason Gallagher's kid again. I mean, like, that's the future.
- [74:21]
Bill Simmons
I'm just Gallagher's kid. Just repeated mentions of the pod. No, you're right, though. They're just going to follow. They'll follow him there. And guess what they'll probably follow him to when he's playing for the Singapore Giants.
- [74:31]
Kurt Goldsberry
That's what soccer's taught us, dude. I mean, that's exactly how these kids follow soccer. They're Ronaldo or they're Messi or they're Mbappe, and they're going with them wherever that's going. Why wouldn't that happen to these athletes that are just as popular?
- [74:45]
Bill Simmons
Well, I'll tell you this. The NBA has to start taking all this shit seriously. They're throwing away the first two months of the season every year. The season's too long. Nobody likes it. The players don't like it. There's all these solutions that they're unwilling to explore. They're going to add two teams and Somehow keep an 82 game schedule, which is fucking stupid. And they have all this money that they already got that allows them now the luxury to rethink this whole system. And that's how they should be thinking. And if they're not thinking that way, they need new people to run the league.
- [75:14]
Kurt Goldsberry
And one last point about the 82 games. It's more than just too much inventory. Load management. If you look at the data, load management really annoys fans. People don't want to turn on TNT like we did for that Celtic Sixers game the other night and see the main red claws in the delta where Delaware 87ers.
- [75:31]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [75:33]
Kurt Goldsberry
One of the reasons that happens is we're, we're, we're putting too many games out there. If we had fewer games, there'd be fewer load management situations. We would have full, full teams playing each other. The product would be better on average.
- [75:48]
Bill Simmons
Well, you'd also have a situation like Philly is now punted on their season. You don't have to watch the Zombie Sixers for the next two months. Not give a shit. Like, all right, we're, we're out way sooner.
- [75:58]
Kurt Goldsberry
You know, simulation mode you can enter. Yeah, yeah. But, yeah, I think that's a big thing, Bill. I think the shorter season where games feel more like events, it takes a little blind faith to see that that could get you to more revenue. But I love your point about, hey, well, you just locked up this huge media rights deal. Do you really need a lot every.
- [76:17]
Bill Simmons
Time people are paying the most money they've ever paid for your teams. Like, this is a time now to be proactive and try to get better at stuff and that this is going to require real vision. And it's not just like we've come up with the NBA cup. We've added a new event to All Star Weekend on Saturday. It's like, we're not talking about that. Like you have a chance to actually fix shit. All right, Kurt Goldsberry. It was fun to sit in your class, shout out to your students. That was a great presentation. I will see you soon. Say hi to everybody in Austin.
- [76:44]
Kurt Goldsberry
Thank you, Bill. Thank you.
- [76:45]
Bill Simmons
All right. My dad is here complaining to me all during the OKC Celtic game. It's been a tumultuous year for him. He just adopted a new puppy, sadly lost Sally. A couple months ago, you thought you were going to be a one dog family. And then all of a sudden you're telling me you're getting a puppy. Ruby is the name. And now you're up With a puppy that's peeing on pads and scratching you and biting you and was it worth it? I guess is my question.
- [77:14]
Bill's Dad
Yes. I think I'm just watching her because she's been peeing on the floor all morning.
- [77:22]
Bill Simmons
Oh, good.
- [77:23]
Bill's Dad
Yeah, yeah. She actually, last night was good. She got up at 2:00, she did her business, went back to bed, woke me up at 7:30. She's only 10 weeks old.
- [77:35]
Bill Simmons
Sounds great.
- [77:36]
Bill's Dad
Yeah. I mean, like you said, Molly, my wife Malik, and bring the puppy when she's 10 years old to the nursing home to visit. It's going to work out great.
- [77:48]
Bill Simmons
All right, good. Congratulations. So you went to the Celtic game last night and you hadn't seen this version of OKC in person. What was your in person takeaway of the Thunder?
- [78:02]
Bill's Dad
A couple things. It's the best team I've seen all year. Come into the Garden in person. They seem to have 20 players that they just rotated in and out. I didn't know half the names of the players on the team. They just came in. They played great defense, whoever it was, they got rebounds, they passed well. They didn't settle for the three. They only took the three when it was open and they had no lane to the basket, but they went to the basket a lot. I don't know if you saw the, the free throw disparity. They had over 30 free throws left yesterday and they earned them. They went to the basket. They were physical. Meanwhile, we were terrible. We, we just settled for three shot, three point shot after three point shot. Nobody wanted to go to the basket. Jalen Brown had one of those horrific games that he occasionally has fouled out, which is so unusual, but he made dumb fouls and on top of it, it was my least favorite referee crew. So when I saw who the refs were, I was thinking, you know, this is a big game for the NBA. It's on, you know, do you think they could have brought in a good crew?
- [79:18]
Bill Simmons
And I should mention my dad's not a Tyler Ford guy, so. Not at all. If you see Tyler Ford doing a Celtic game, just know my dad's upset immediately. Yeah.
- [79:30]
Bill's Dad
It couldn't have just been me the whole game. The Celtics were. I know we complain a lot, The Sox complain a lot on the floor, but there were some really horrendous calls last night. And the disparity, you know, you're the home team, even though you're not going to the basket, you should get a few calls.
- [79:49]
Bill Simmons
Right? Yeah. See, all the Celtic fans were saying this, but we shot 63 threes. So at that point, you're probably not going to get a shitload of free throws. You know, I. I know you weren't going to the basket enough. I also think Kirk and I talked about the game a little bit, but I left some stuff for you. I thought Dort was like the worst possible guy to guard Jalen. I thought Jalen could not solve him at all. He's just strong, he's smaller, and he just couldn't figure him out.
- [80:16]
Bill's Dad
Yeah. It was so ironic after watching.
- [80:21]
Bill Simmons
What.
- [80:21]
Bill's Dad
A good job Brown did in the previous game.
- [80:25]
Bill Simmons
The Lakers. Yeah.
- [80:26]
Bill's Dad
And in this game, he not only did a poor job on defense, Dork killed him. You know, he's built like a linebacker.
- [80:36]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [80:37]
Bill's Dad
He just. He really outmuscled him. I. I know everybody's talked about how. What great shape Jalen Brown is in from working out all summer. And, you know, he is a pretty big guy, but dork made him look small. Yeah, it was. Yeah, it was a frustrating game for everybody.
- [80:56]
Bill Simmons
So this is 51 or 52 years season tickets for you.
- [81:00]
Bill's Dad
This is my 51st year.
- [81:03]
Bill Simmons
How many guards have you seen in person that were better than sga? Oh, I mean, Jordan, obviously.
- [81:12]
Bill's Dad
Yeah.
- [81:13]
Bill Simmons
Would you put him on, like, the, like, second highest level? Highest level. Like, he's unstoppable. And we were throwing everybody at him.
- [81:22]
Bill's Dad
Yeah, he's. He's in the top 10, obviously. I. I've not seen him in person because they didn't go to the game last year against okc. He was unstoppable. And also he's fluid. Like, he goes to the basket, looks like he's going to be contained, and gets the shot up somehow. It has a lot of tricky shots, too, and they all go in. If I'm a defender, I'm really frustrated trying to guard that guy. He was really good. I already mentioned that he has my MVP vote.
- [81:59]
Bill Simmons
Oh, yeah. I don't know if you got a vote this year, but I'm going to pass it along anyway.
- [82:04]
Bill's Dad
I thought because I was in the documentary, I got a vote this year.
- [82:07]
Bill Simmons
No, you don't get a vote. Which the sga, the inability for us to control him reminded me of Andrew Tony a million years ago. I was thinking of some of the other. Because I remember we went to that finals game in 08 when. When they beat the Lakers that year. But Kobe, there was that game too, when the Lakers started coming back and Kobe all of a sudden was unstoppable for like two minutes. And there was the crowd. You can Feel the energy kind of die because you're going, oh, my God, what do we do? SGA is a little bit like that. Like, I was thinking about a series against him, and you'd think, like, with Holiday and Derrick White and then some size with Brown and Tatum, this is the right kind of team to stop him. But I'm not sure anyone's stopping him this year.
- [82:53]
Bill's Dad
Well, I will. I will have a caveat, though. He goes to the basket frequently. I mean, he has a very nice. Obviously a good outside shot. Made a couple threes. But his game is going to the basket, right?
- [83:07]
Bill Simmons
No. Porzingis. Are you going there?
- [83:08]
Bill's Dad
Yeah. Porzingis would have made a difference in the middle. We got out, remounted out, hustled. They played a too big lineup, and our two bigs were Horford and.
- [83:20]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Luke Cornett.
- [83:22]
Bill's Dad
Luke Cornett. And we just didn't match up very well. But it wasn't just that. They're a driving team and they had a lot of layups, and I know Porzingis would have made a difference out there.
- [83:33]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. But the problem is, you and I talk about this constantly. Like, Porzingis has hit the point where it's exciting to have him. You notice when he's in the game and he just hasn't played enough. And there's this reason, that reason, another reason. And now I'm at the point where you think about having to get through the Knicks and Cleveland and OKC potentially. I don't think they can win all three of those rounds without Porzingis, and I have no idea if he's going to be available.
- [84:00]
Bill's Dad
I agree. I was just reading. He's missed seven of the last eight games, and the one game he did play, he was limited minutes, and it's very mysterious. He has this virus that they can't find out what it is. He was at the game last night, all dressed up, sitting on the bench. He looked great, but he wasn't playing the game. I don't get it.
- [84:25]
Bill Simmons
You've gone to a lot of these games. What's up with the. Why aren't they better at home this year? What is it?
- [84:30]
Bill's Dad
Too many threes? They get three happy at home? They don't. They don't seem to go to the. That's one thing. They don't go to the basket as much. The other thing that I've noticed is that they always start slow. It's like they. They didn't wake up yet. You know, last night was a prime example. It was nine nothing. And they took a Time out.
- [84:51]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [84:52]
Bill's Dad
Now you have nine points you have to make up. And what do we lose by? I think we lost by, you know, seven or eight. I don't know why the slow starts. I don't know whether. I don't know what's going on there. They, you know, if you notice last night, our first 10 shots with three point shots.
- [85:12]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [85:13]
Bill's Dad
If they're not going in, that leads to a defensive rebound, a fast break by the other team and suddenly they're scoring. And we don't work the ball inside when Porzingis isn't there.
- [85:25]
Bill Simmons
I mean, the thing is, if I showed you, if you didn't even watch the game and I just showed you the stat sheet and it was like, we shot 63 threes and 12 free throws. Vega, we lost. Like, that's, that's just, that's a guaranteed loss.
- [85:37]
Bill's Dad
The guy in front of me, Mike, said to me, it was at almost the end of the first quarter, he said, you know, we haven't taken or made a two point shot yet. Every time it was a three or a free throw. You can't win against a team like OKC playing that kind of basketball. You know, it's hit or miss.
- [85:57]
Bill Simmons
Can you give us your Tatum? You've watched every season of Tatum's career. You've been going, I feel like he's gone up half a level. I thought he was awesome in the Laker game. I thought he was really good last night. He certainly wasn't the reason they lost and in general feels like he's gone up a notch. So what are you seeing in person?
- [86:17]
Bill's Dad
I feel, I agree with you. He's gone up a notch. It's the best season he's had that I've seen him play. He's like a general out there. He controls all of our offensive action. You know, it's every game he takes three or four shots you kind of wish he didn't take. That may be. And I don't know whether, you know, too many times going to the basket, you know, you don't want to be hit every time you go in there. But yeah, it seems like every time he goes to the basket, he can score.
- [86:52]
Bill Simmons
I like when he goes to the basket, but then pulls up and takes that 15 footer. I feel like that's unstoppable.
- [86:58]
Bill's Dad
It's been unstoppable the last month or so, but he doesn't do it that often. He'll more often settle. You know, he'll be out three point line and all of a sudden I Look up and the shot clock said six seconds, five seconds, and he takes that fall away pretty long. Three point shot, and it's hit or miss. He doesn't have good percentage on that. Yeah, I'm not. I'd love to see him go to the basket more. You know, maybe if Porzingis was out there opening the lane up a little bit. OKC really clogged the lane with their bigs. There wasn't a lot of room to drive, which I understand from, you know, why they took so many threes. But you would have been frustrated sitting at that game.
- [87:41]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I didn't enjoy watching on tv. I mean, the biggest thing that shifted this year is we left last season. Tatum and Brown were kind of 1A, 1B.
- [87:50]
Bill's Dad
Yeah.
- [87:51]
Bill Simmons
And Tatum has really. And it's not. Jalen has had some good stretches and some bad stretches, but Tatum, the amount of stuff that he's doing game to game on both sides is he's also the best rebounder on the team. He defends everybody on the other team. He runs the offense. I think he's having an awesome season. To me, he's clearly the number three mvp. And there's some Giannis, people who are like, well, Giannis is 30 and 12 and 6. But I just think the Celtics are more successful and Tatum has as big of a burden and he's also running the offense.
- [88:24]
Bill's Dad
There's a couple of other trends that I noticed. You know, it was the fourth quarter, middle of the fourth quarter, and Jalen Brown had four points, right? And five and five fouls. That's your. That's your highest paid player. You can't get that out of that guy.
- [88:40]
Bill Simmons
And you're trying to light a fire under Jaylen Brown right now.
- [88:44]
Bill's Dad
I didn't understand his game last night. The other thing you and I have talked about it, their bench, OKC's bench was terrific. Our bench wasn't. I know when you have a starter out, everybody moves up a little bit. But I love Pritchard and I love Hauser, but in really big games against really good teams who have a good defense, they shut them down.
- [89:09]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I agree. I agree. That's why I don't think Pritchard, he's favorite to win six, man, but I've just seen too many games where I don't think he's impactful enough. Whereas, like Cleveland, that Ty Jerome will come in and he'll just swing the game when he comes in, you know, and there's games where Pritchard doesn't do that. But I Also think the amount of money they're paying for the top six guys in this team, it's really hard to have a bench, you know, like, it's just. It's just hard to find that 9th, 10th, 11th guy when you're shelling out the amount of money that they're paying. So it makes sense. But I agree. I thought OKC just seemed so much deeper last night.
- [89:46]
Bill's Dad
OKC did something else that the teams that are beating us seem to be doing. They're picking us up almost at half.
- [89:53]
Bill Simmons
Court, trying to put Miles on Tatum.
- [89:55]
Bill's Dad
Yeah, yeah. And. And pushing us out. Pushing us out further and making us so. And by doing that, when you look up at the shot clock, it's 10 seconds to go.
- [90:07]
Bill Simmons
By the way, we did that to the Lakers on Saturday. That was one of the big reasons they. They were making Luka and LeBron like, really work just to bring the ball up, which I don't understand why more teams don't do against them.
- [90:18]
Bill's Dad
Yeah, that's what. That's why Brown was so effective against Luka against the Lakers. It was. You know, Brown was on Alexander last night quite a bit, but he's a different kind of player than Luka. Yeah, he's too crafty in person. He's very slight. You don't expect him to be. You know, he gets a lot of rebounds. He's. He slither, slows through the lane, like.
- [90:47]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [90:48]
Bill's Dad
Very few players I've seen. And Brown couldn't stop him.
- [90:53]
Bill Simmons
So would you have us. You saw. You saw a Boston Cleveland game in person, too?
- [90:58]
Bill's Dad
Yes. Yeah.
- [90:59]
Bill Simmons
Would you have us third with those three right now?
- [91:02]
Bill's Dad
Right now? I would.
- [91:03]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. I would, too.
- [91:04]
Bill's Dad
Well, for kind of a different reason. I know that OKC had the Williams kid, didn't play last night, but cleveland is 100 healthy usually this year, and you and I talked about it. I thought they made a couple of great additions for their bench.
- [91:20]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, we like Hunter.
- [91:21]
Bill's Dad
I always loved Hunter, and I always. When Jerome was on okc, I thought, he's a great guy off the bench.
- [91:29]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [91:29]
Bill's Dad
So who gets them both? Cleveland.
- [91:32]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [91:33]
Bill's Dad
I know they had cap room, but. And that's like you said earlier, that's where we have a difficulty when our six players make so much money at the top.
- [91:43]
Bill Simmons
What's the. What's the Patriots fever right now with the free agents and the number four pick?
- [91:49]
Bill's Dad
Well, I think people like the additions.
- [91:54]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [91:55]
Bill's Dad
With the exception of why haven't we signed a receiver and why haven't we signed an offensive tackle? And like the paper today, that Cam. I don't. I can't say I've ever seen Cam Robinson play, except he is a left tackle and maybe you plug him in for a year.
- [92:13]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, it's tough. It's tough when the case for somebody is he has two arms, two legs and a head, and he plays left tackle. Like, all right, 20 million.
- [92:21]
Bill's Dad
Let's give him a chance. Yeah. Cooper cup from the Rams. I think you think he's done.
- [92:29]
Bill Simmons
I think he's. I think it's a rep. There's some bad stats with him about getting open, like, year by year. The last five years, where last year he just doesn't get open anymore. We don't need another guy who can't get open. Yeah, they have five guys who can't get open. I. Here's where I've talked myself into. Well, first of all, I'm praying the Giants take Sanders because they don't have a quarterback, and it seems like Rogers might go to Pittsburgh and they haven't done anything else. So it's like, please take Sanders. I am all in. I'm planting my flag on this because they don't need Graham because they beefed up the defensive line. I'm all in on Travis Hunter. I'm all in on taking him at receiver at 4. And then maybe in the dime packages, he comes in and plays some D back. But just. Can. Can you turn him into a top five receiver? I think you could. That's your number one receiver. You also have the flexibility. Maybe he can play on the other side of the ball a little bit. It's just like he's. It just seems like he's a sure thing. I want a sure thing at the number four. I want. I want, like, a blue chipper who would be a $35 million player a year someday. That's what I want.
- [93:38]
Bill's Dad
I agree with you. It seems like there's two sure things, Hunter and Carter. And it would be fabulous to have Carter on a defensive line with the additions we made.
- [93:49]
Bill Simmons
Otherwise. Trade back. If you don't get one of those two. Trade back.
- [93:53]
Bill's Dad
Trade back and maybe take one of the other tackles at 10 or 11 or somewhere in there.
- [94:00]
Bill Simmons
I do love the Drake May Hunter idea. Would be super fun, but I think this has been a really fun draft to follow, especially, like, we just need two teams to take a quarterback ahead of us and then it shoves the guys down. You're just watching the Giants not get anyone, not make the Stafford trade, not get a free agent.
- [94:17]
Bill's Dad
I'm feeling. I'm feeling optimistic. That you know what happens in these drafts. Teams get really anxious. I don't have a quarterback.
- [94:29]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [94:29]
Bill's Dad
And there's two quarterbacks sitting there.
- [94:32]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [94:33]
Bill's Dad
Not going to be at all surprised if we don't see the Giants take the quarterback. They have no quarterback.
- [94:40]
Bill Simmons
I can't. I can't wait. It's going to be the most exciting draft we've had in a while. Because to pick this high and potentially have it work out. Marchand. Can we talk Marchand for a second?
- [94:52]
Bill's Dad
Yeah. I hate the way the Bruins Let our 16 year old, 16 year veteran, Captain of the team just walk away somewhere else. Especially to an arch enemy team.
- [95:09]
Bill Simmons
That was the worst part for me was Florida. Just come on. Out of all the teams, that's who you're going to trade them to?
- [95:18]
Bill's Dad
Well, the other thing is they gave a crazy amount of money to Lindholm, the forward or center. Forward. And he's terrible. So we know Marchand gives 110%. He's our second leading scorer. Was our second leading scorer.
- [95:36]
Bill Simmons
Pony up some money and he's a legend. He's going to retire as a Hall of Famer. All that stuff.
- [95:42]
Bill's Dad
It's the part of sports that I hate.
- [95:45]
Bill Simmons
But it's the Danny Ainge thing. Right. Where Danny Ainge used to say, if I was running the Celtics in the late 80s, I would have traded Bird and McHale and started over. You can't be loyal to the memories. He traded Kevin Garnett in 2013. It's like the best thing for the team is to make the move. But I don't know, you get like a late pick in the first round and it's not like this is making or breaking your future.
- [96:05]
Bill's Dad
Well, it's not even a first round.
- [96:08]
Bill Simmons
It's a conditional second that could turn into a first. Yeah.
- [96:12]
Bill's Dad
I just think that Marchand was not the guy you traded. You work it out or you let him stay here until the end of the year. We're not going anywhere.
- [96:25]
Bill Simmons
His cousin Brian, all right. I know he took this one hard.
- [96:28]
Bill's Dad
He did take this one hard.
- [96:30]
Bill Simmons
There's nobody left. I mean, who's like, who's going to be the, well, pastor next year? Number one jersey in the stands now, but other than that, Nobody left from 2000, early 2010s, that whole run.
- [96:42]
Bill's Dad
Right. Now, the irony is, I think within the two weeks that they traded Marsh and they identified next year's ticket prices, which they raised quite a bit. Yeah. So the timing was terrible. I also. There. Don't you think that Neely and Sweeney are on thin ice in terms of where we're headed and the move, the moves we've made over the last five years.
- [97:11]
Bill Simmons
Well, it's a whole generation now that they won the cup though. The month I started Grantland.
- [97:18]
Bill's Dad
Right.
- [97:18]
Bill Simmons
It's a million years ago. You know, it's like you have like 20 year old kids now that barely remember it.
- [97:25]
Bill's Dad
It was for me it was two dogs ago. Right.
- [97:28]
Bill Simmons
That's how. Yeah, I forgot. That's how you measure dog ears or living dogs. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know that because they have that. And then the other thing is the Celtics sale that somebody.
- [97:40]
Bill's Dad
Did you see it?
- [97:42]
Bill Simmons
There's four left.
- [97:43]
Bill's Dad
The four left. Yeah.
- [97:44]
Bill Simmons
And the bids are. The final bids are coming in Friday. There was five and Lurie dropped out. The Eagles owner, I think he, I think like pretty soon after the super bowl was out. I thought they thought, they think, they thought there was going to be five when they.
- [97:59]
Bill's Dad
Look, they had a lengthy write up in Boston Globe about that. It doesn't look like anybody has the means to pay for this team without a lot of backup support.
- [98:11]
Bill Simmons
So that's one of the things about. Well, one of the things is nobody knows the composition of all the groups. So you have all these minority partners who are going to throw money, but nobody knows what side they picked with the four left and who's on whose team. So it's, it's a lot of. But tying to the Bruins. I think part of the play would be you'd build a new arena and so you're paying for the team. But then you also know like in the 2000 and 30s, there's going to be some sort of basketball arena that you build. That's like what the Clippers did. So it's really. You're like 10 billion all in. So you need like capital behind that. But for the Bruins it's not great because they're going to be stuck in this other building. They'll be the only tenant in seven years and then the team hasn't been, you know, it's definitely arrow pointing down. So interesting times.
- [98:59]
Bill's Dad
A building that's going to be 30 years old soon.
- [99:03]
Bill Simmons
Isn't that crazy? Remember driving by the Garden and just seeing the carcass of half of a stadium for that whole winter in 94.
- [99:11]
Bill's Dad
I remember almost 30 years ago after we had had our tickets in the old garden, 20 years plus them taking me into this new Garden to pick a seat 30 years ago now. And I know they've done as much as they could refreshing it. But it is what it is. It's not like the new arena like you've been talking about the Clippers place, how spectacular it is.
- [99:36]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, no, I think the Lakers are in the same boat. The Staples was built, I think in like 99 or 2000. It's quote, unquote, state of the art, but it's really not. It sucks. And now they're in this. What do you do? And you have the Clippers, who have this incredible arena. So I know that's going to be a piece of the Celtics purchase. You have to think arena.
- [99:54]
Bill's Dad
But you know Boston as well as I do. There's no land.
- [99:58]
Bill Simmons
I mean, there's one part that if you go back and you read. Remember when we. We were going to have the Olympics in Boston for that before it got shot down, they had a whole plan for where it was going to be. And one of the. One of the big locations was going to be on 93 past, like, where Emerson is going toward, like, Quincy and the Cape and there's this whole section. Yeah. And I think that's where the arena would go if I think that's the location, and I think it's open. So I. Whatever. It'll definitely. Something's definitely going to happen over the next 10 years. But that. The big thing for me with the Celtics sale is like, Pag Luca is one of the four guys left. He's the number two owner right now. He's the one that if he gets it, you have the stability, you keep the organization intact. If the other three guys. Any of those guys get it, who knows? They just come in like, here are my ideas. I'm bringing in my own guys. And you could have just complete dysfunction.
- [100:54]
Bill's Dad
Yeah. And that really worries me. It's like the year John Y. Brown came in from Kentucky. You know, people come in outside of Massachusetts, they come in with their whole group, different ideas, you know.
- [101:09]
Bill Simmons
Well, they all want to do their one thing, and then you end up in the Luka Doncic situation where you have the new Dallas owners. They're like, yeah, let's trade them. We get Anthony Davis and a pick, Max Christie.
- [101:20]
Bill's Dad
The other thing, we've talked about it. If they don't have deep enough pockets, Rounds probably on his way out the door.
- [101:30]
Bill Simmons
The tax bill is pretty crazy.
- [101:32]
Bill's Dad
It is crazy.
- [101:34]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. I think, like, some of it will depend on what happens in the playoffs. But, yeah, I'm prepared. As a fan. I'm prepared and you are, too. Like, I don't know what's going to happen. You're going to have this new owner group paying six plus billion dollars. The team, let's say they don't win the title and then they're looking at a tax bill of $200 million on top of what they just paid. And it's like, all right, first move. I've decided to do this. God only knows what that's going to be.
- [102:00]
Kurt Goldsberry
Could be anything.
- [102:03]
Bill's Dad
We just got our packages a couple weeks ago for season tickets for next year. Significant increase in ticket prices.
- [102:10]
Bill Simmons
Oh, really?
- [102:11]
Bill's Dad
Yeah. And I understand, you know, we want.
- [102:14]
Bill Simmons
Maybe to wire you some money.
- [102:17]
Bill's Dad
I just wanted to mention it, you know.
- [102:19]
Bill Simmons
All right, I'll flag it. I'll talk to my guy.
- [102:21]
Bill's Dad
I read online yesterday that you signed a new contract.
- [102:24]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Might have some extra. So they rate. Said they jacked it like 10%.
- [102:33]
Bill's Dad
Each seating area has a different percentage. But I just wanted to mention it, you know, as long as we're talking.
- [102:39]
Bill Simmons
Well, you. We have the episode three of Celtic City, which, spoiler alert, we. You popped in, we interviewed a hundred plus people and we interviewed some old ticket holders. But that first year you bought the. You bought your ticket was four bucks.
- [102:53]
Bill's Dad
$4? Yeah.
- [102:54]
Bill Simmons
$4 for the 73. 74 season. $4. So now it's like. What is it now, like three, like 400 a ticket? Well, no, not that high. Is it up there. We could talk after. Jesus.
- [103:08]
Bill's Dad
They flex the tickets.
- [103:10]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Oh, that's.
- [103:11]
Bill's Dad
Yeah. So there's no one price for the seat for one game. You come in and you see Dallas, now one of the terrible teams, or New Orleans. It's a totally different price than the Lakers.
- [103:25]
Bill Simmons
For example, in Philly, they could probably. When. If Philly comes in again, they could probably tank those tickets and knock them down.
- [103:33]
Bill's Dad
But, you know, it's understandable that they raised the prices.
- [103:38]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [103:38]
Bill's Dad
On the Bruins end. It's not understandable for the product they're putting out and the fact that they let their captain go.
- [103:45]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. It's funny, like, when you add. We used to go to the games in the 70s and it was all blue collar, all like just the most normal people possible. And then the 80s, we just started watching them go away one at a time.
- [104:00]
Bill's Dad
Right. Yeah.
- [104:01]
Bill Simmons
And I remember the guy, the guy with the hat, with the mustache, like that guy who's. And all of a sudden he was gone and just. And it just. And then by the time we got to the Fleet center, it was just completely different. Yeah.
- [104:12]
Bill's Dad
Big Bird with the sun.
- [104:14]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [104:14]
Bill's Dad
All the Mary in front of us, all the regulars. There's a new group of very nice people, but it's a different group.
- [104:22]
Bill Simmons
There's still some old timers there, though.
- [104:24]
Bill's Dad
Yeah, there are.
- [104:25]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [104:25]
Bill's Dad
Yeah.
- [104:26]
Bill Simmons
But you're like. I think you're like in the top six of longest runs now or top five.
- [104:30]
Bill's Dad
Yeah, I should be.
- [104:32]
Bill Simmons
I think should honor you at halftime or something.
- [104:35]
Bill's Dad
Well, they mistakenly say that this season took a hold as tickets 55 years, but he got them from his brother who passed away.
- [104:43]
Bill Simmons
Right, right. It sounded like it should be straight through.
- [104:46]
Bill's Dad
Yeah. I mean, I consider that the same way the Lake is count the Minnesota title.
- [104:51]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, yeah, right.
- [104:53]
Bill's Dad
It's the same thing.
- [104:54]
Bill Simmons
Right? We had that in the episode two of Celtic City. They mentioned how the Lakers trying to win their first title in Los Angeles. And, you know, they're not counting the Minnesota titles at all. And then in the 80s, all of a sudden they're like, yeah, in those five titles we won in Minnesota, I'm sure, like, if OKC wins the title this year, they're not going to be like, it's our second title following the one we won in Seattle. They're not going to say that.
- [105:21]
Bill's Dad
Yeah, I think it's crazy, I guess. Were they the Minnesota Lakers? So they changed.
- [105:26]
Bill Simmons
They didn't change. Minneapolis Lakers.
- [105:28]
Bill's Dad
Minneapolis Lakers. So that's what they hang their hat on, I guess. You live out there. I mean, you should have an argument with some people about. They probably have 12 titles.
- [105:40]
Bill Simmons
I'll tell you, the Luka thing is maddening because they love Luka and the energy at the home games is completely different already. And this is like Lebron, like, obviously most. One of the most popular NBA players of this century and one of the most famous and one of the best. But he's been on all these other teams and it's always year to year with him and he's a Laker, but it's. It's a little more of a hired gun. They look at Luka and they're like, this guy's 25. Like, this guy might be in our life for the next 15 years. Like, you can just feel the energy shift.
- [106:12]
Bill's Dad
So when Zoe's date shows up at the front door with a Luca jersey on.
- [106:17]
Bill Simmons
No, that's. It. That's. The door gets slammed. That's not happening. Don't worry. Don't ever worry about that.
- [106:21]
Kurt Goldsberry
Okay.
- [106:22]
Bill Simmons
All right. Good to see you. Congrats on your dramatic debut in episode three, Celtic City.
- [106:28]
Bill's Dad
I. I still can't. I still haven't hired an agent.
- [106:32]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, probably not. I don't think you need to okay. All right. All right, all right. Good to see you. Thanks, dad.
- [106:37]
Kurt Goldsberry
You too.
- [106:37]
Bill Simmons
All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kirk and my dad. Thanks to Kyle and Sariti and Gehao as well. Don't forget new rewatchables coming Monday, Prestige TV Sunday night, White Lotus recap. And you can get all this as video podcast on Spotify, which is what you should do. I will see you on Sunday with Priscilla. Have a great weekend. Must be 21 plus in President Sleep select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + in President D.C. gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-89-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplianma.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York.