The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: Most Fun NFL Story Lines With Peter Schrager
Date: September 3, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons
Guest: Peter Schrager

Episode Overview

Bill Simmons is joined by NFL analyst Peter Schrager (now at ESPN) for a spirited, insightful discussion of the most compelling NFL storylines entering the 2025 season. The two riff on quarterback hierarchies, the state of Mahomes and the Chiefs, AFC West intrigue, the impact of rookie head coaches, and shifting team identities, all with signature wit and deep scouting scoop. Schrager goes deep on the status of Ben Johnson, Daniel Dart, the Patriots, “nobody believes in us” teams, and behind-the-scenes media changes at ESPN. The episode is packed with dense football analysis, friendly banter, and a genuine love for the game.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs: Dynasty at a Crossroads

Timestamps: 04:01 – 16:58

• Simmons questions whether we're entering the "post-prime" era for Mahomes due to a less dominant 2024 season and issues with supporting cast.
  • “He wasn’t as good last year as I think people seem to think he was… and he finished fifth in MVP voting.” – Simmons (04:18)
• Schrager insists Mahomes is laser-focused:
  • “This guy is locked the fuck in. And it has been rampage season all summer.” – Schrager (05:05)
  • Mahomes’ competitiveness and offseason grind compared to Michael Jordan (“Last Dance” reference).
• Detailed breakdown of receiver and offensive changes: new targets (Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown) and health status of Kelsey.
• Debate on MVP odds and whether the Chiefs are “scorched earth” redux or entering a new phase akin to Albert Pujols in his 30s.
• Quarterback hierarchy discussion: The consensus “top four” QBs: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow. Allen may now be the "default" guy, but Mahomes is still Simmons' “one game for my life” pick.
  • “If I’m taking a quarterback for 22 weeks, I think I’m picking Josh [Allen]. But… who do I want for 30 minutes? I think I would take Mahomes.” – Simmons (10:40)
• Schrager: Andy Reid + Mahomes “still going to reign supreme.”
  • “It’s a package deal… The two of them together are still going to reign supreme over those other three combos.” – Schrager (14:47)

2. AFC West Showdown: Chiefs vs. Broncos

Timestamps: 16:16 – 22:15

• Denver as “sleeping giant”—most talented team outside of KC?
  • “Is it realistic to you that Denver could have a slight upper hand over KC in the West?” – Simmons (17:59)
  • Schrager recounts Sean Payton’s story to the team about “writing a new chapter” for the Broncos franchise.
• Widespread media sentiment quietly shifting toward Denver; many insiders picking them to win the division.
  • “I feel like more people have Denver winning the AFC West than they do the Chiefs right now.” – Schrager (20:53)
• Other AFC West teams: Chargers or Raiders unpleasant, but the top two are the real story.
• Simmons sets up: “KC vs. Denver is the most interesting big-picture storyline this season.”
  • Watch for whether Denver can handle “hunted not hunter” expectations.

3. NFC North Coaching Shake-up: Ben Johnson & the New Bears

Timestamps: 24:08 – 32:44

• Simmons asks for the “Ben Johnson will crush it” case with the Bears.
  • Schrager: Johnson “could have had any job”, picked Chicago and wants to work with Caleb Williams specifically.
  • Thrives on “chip on the shoulder” energy; tactically sharp and a “dude,” not an aloof play designer.
  • “He’s the most interesting person in the NFL this season.” – Schrager (28:23)
• Bears offense may become “must-see TV” for the first time in a generation.
• Discussion of rookie tight end Loveland (“already getting drafted as a top 10 TE”) and the overall weaponry.
  • “Are the two weapons they drafted both going to have huge impacts?” “Yes.” – Schrager (28:52)
• NFC North playoff predictions: Schrager sees Bears as the odd team out, but says “any other division” they’d compete.

4. Year from Hell Watch & NFC Wild Cards

Timestamps: 32:44 – 35:55

• “Year from hell” candidate teams: Lions (could miss Ben Johnson’s spark), 49ers (Simmons: “more arrow pointing down potential than up”), Chargers (injuries already piling up).
• Simmons says, “I don’t know who the year-from-hell team is yet, but we’re going to have one.”
• Quick-hit scouting on Seahawks (“one of my big week one plays”), 49ers, and Rams new look with Stafford-Garoppolo insurance policy and upgraded WR (Davante Adams over Kupp).

5. Deep Dive: NFC West & Cardinals Skepticism

Timestamps: 35:55 – 39:09

• Both hosts express skepticism about the “hipster favorite” Cardinals; Schrager: “I don’t see the case.”
• Emphasis: NFC is “coach-rich, QB-poor” while the AFC is the inverse.

6. ‘Nobody Believes In Us’ Team of the Year

Timestamps: 39:09 – 45:41

• Schrager’s surprise pick: Miami Dolphins
  • “They’re my nobody believes in us team… including their own fans. I like them to shock everyone.”
• Case for: McDaniel’s chip, Tua’s leadership, underrated offense (Hill, Waddle, Achane), healthy defensive stars returning.
• Simmons pushes back—concerns at DB, OL, and WR health—but is “jealous” of Schrager’s boldness.
  • “You’re the only one who believes in them that I’ve heard.” – Simmons (42:46)
• Schrager digs in: “That team will embody Mike McDaniel.”

7. Rapid-Fire Team Discussion: Giants, Patriots & More

Timestamps: 46:03 – 55:42

Giants Hype & Identity Restoration

• Schrager raves about dominant Giants D-line (Carter, Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Thibodeaux).
  • “Abdul Carter has been, to a man, unblockable.” – Schrager (47:12)
• Offense has a future: Daniel Dart’s swag, positive QB vibes.
• Unsure about cult rookie RB Cam Skattebo’s fantasy relevance.

Patriots Transition Era

• Simmons: “Give me 90 seconds on the Pats.”
• Schrager: Vrabel and McDaniels coaching staff instantly improve discipline, time management, and offensive optimism.
• Still sees Pats as improved but keeps them out of his playoff bracket (spots given to Cincy and Miami instead).
  • “Immediate upgrade with just Vrabel and McDaniels… never going to see an unprepared Mike Vrabel team.” – Schrager (52:09)
• Both agree: Week 1 is a true must-win at home vs Vegas for playoff dreams.

8. Media/ESPN Life Update & Schrager’s Career Moves

Timestamps: 58:23 – 62:41

• Schrager: “More freedom and flexibility at ESPN” — invited on First Take, Get Up, SportsCenter, etc.
• ESPN’s platform impact: “The actual fire hose…feels like when I make a point on ESPN, people hear it.”
• Adjustment to being a “smaller fish in a massive pond” versus “big fish, small pond” at NFL Network.
• Nostalgia for camaraderie with Kyle Brandt.

9. Tennis, Paddle, & Random Banter

Timestamps: 63:00 – 68:55

• Schrager attempts to convert Bill to “paddle” (the racquet sport), championing it as more fun than pickleball for tennis fans.
• Simmons’ “Serena Williams comeback” idea: would be the non-NFL story of the year.
• Tennis talk: lamenting lack of depth in men’s field, fun US Open moments, and a “tennis podcast” joke.

10. On Air Relationships, McAfee Show, and NFL Media-world Camaraderie

Timestamps: 68:43 – End

• Lighthearted musing about Schrager’s new “pod relationships”—open to “swinging” between The Ringer, McAfee, and friends.
• Schrager notes similarities between his work on McAfee (“against the world” vibe) and Grantland/Ringer culture.
• Affectionate closing: plans for Schrager to return on future pods all season.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Mahomes’s Motivation:
  “This guy is locked the fuck in. Rampage season all summer. Whether that’s big talk or not, I look at last year… He still went to the Super Bowl.” – Schrager (05:05)
• On the AFC QB Hierarchy:
  “Statistically, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow are better than Patrick Mahomes. So it’s this classic individual versus stats vs the non stats.” – Schrager (09:35)
• On Ben Johnson’s Drive:
  “He could have had any job. He made it very clear he wanted one job: the Chicago job...He chooses to coach against the Lions, the team he just spent six seasons with, and he’s like, ‘no, no, I’ll go up against them.’” – Schrager (24:49)
• On the Giants New Era:
  “Russ is going to get a couple games. He might get a couple months. I’d think the bye week is when we start thinking Jackson Dart. Unless Russ is winning and they keep him in.” – Schrager (51:00)
• On ESPN’s Reach:
  “The actual fire hose of the platform has been a pleasant surprise… when I make a point on ESPN, people hear it.” – Schrager (59:53)
• On Paddle:
  “Paddle’s coming. And I want you in on the ride, dude. I want to give you a racket, and I want to get you on the court.” – Schrager (63:26)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 04:01 – 16:58: Mahomes, Chiefs, and QB Tier Talk
• 16:16 – 22:15: AFC West: Chiefs vs. Broncos, What Makes Denver Scary
• 24:08 – 32:44: Ben Johnson & the Bears, NFC North Shakeup
• 32:44 – 35:55: Most Likely Team for “Year from Hell” and NFC dynamics
• 35:55 – 39:09: NFC West Deep Dive; Who's Real, Who's Hipster
• 39:09 – 45:41: Schrager’s “Nobody Believes In Us” Pick: Miami Dolphins
• 46:03 – 55:42: Giants Rise, Patriots Reset, Playoff Bubble
• 58:23 – 62:41: Media Life: ESPN Transition, Platform Change, On-Air Camaraderie
• 63:00 – 68:55: Tennis & Paddle Riffing
• 68:43 – End: Relationships, McAfee Show, Media Culture

Final Thoughts

This episode is a prime example of everything the Bill Simmons Podcast does best—engaging football analysis, smart debate, deep insider nuggets, and a balance of big-picture storytelling and juicy specifics. Schrager’s fresh ESPN perspective and in-the-weeds reporting offers listeners a pulse-taking on the NFL’s shifting sands as the 2025 season dawns. (Plus, if you want passionate paddle/tennis takes, you’ll get those, too.)