The Bill Simmons Podcast – December 23, 2025

Episode: Most Surprising NBA Player Leaps with Tim Legler, Plus NFL Holiday Picks with Joe House
Host: Bill Simmons (A)
Guests: Tim Legler (B), Joe House (C)

OVERVIEW

In this holiday episode, Bill Simmons welcomes ESPN analyst Tim Legler to dissect the NBA’s most surprising player leaps and evolving team dynamics at the season’s third-way mark. They debate real contenders, break down trade speculation, and reveal which players have not just improved, but transformed. Later, Ringer mainstay Joe House joins for spirited NFL holiday betting talk, sharing picks, trends, and a dose of festive gambling commiseration. In classic Simmons style, the conversation is candid, analytical, and peppered with pop culture and personal anecdotes.

NBA SEGMENT WITH TIM LEGLER (Starts ~04:00)

1. Holiday Scheduling and Game Assignments

• [04:12] Legler shares excitement for calling Rockets at Lakers on Christmas night, lamenting ESPN/ABC’s recent NBA break since Thanksgiving Eve.
  • "Even though Christmas is always affecting family time… I haven't called a game. The ESPN, ABC have not had any games since Thanksgiving Eve." (B, 04:20)

2. The NBA Contenders Debate

• [04:53] – Which Teams Truly Have a Shot?
  • Simmons: The field has widened since his last “contenders” discussion, now including Detroit and Minnesota.
  • Legler’s seven: Detroit, New York, OKC, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, and the Lakers.
  • Celtics are fringe: “I wouldn’t put them in now if my life depended on it… One of those teams is the Boston Celtics.” (A, 05:57)
  • Legler: Boston and Philly have remarkably overachieved given injuries and roster holes. If Tatum returns, "they absolutely, probably should be included to win the East at least." (B, 06:27)

Notable Quote

• "The uncertainty of when Embiid's going to play... Boston, I thought at best they were going to probably be like, in that 5, 6, 7 area. So both of those teams have overachieved because they've been carried by a couple of guys offensively." (B, 06:27)

3. Unsure Bets: Cavs and Orlando

• [07:30] – Simmons and Legler dissect Cleveland’s malaise vs. Orlando’s toughness.
  • Cavs are “flat,” lack defensive bite, and are far from last year’s peak. Orlando plays with more “fight” no matter who’s on the floor.
  • “Orlando seems to have fight regardless of who's out there or not. And Cleveland, it comes and goes, and that's the part that's concerning.” (A, 09:36)

4. The Star Factor in Playoff Runs

• [10:48]
  • Simmons: "I feel like you have to play defense. I need a top 10 player. Like, I'm just starting there."
  • Lakers’ star power (LeBron’s endurance), Draymond’s decline, and LeBron's singular ability to “turn it on” even at 40 discussed.

Memorable Moment

• “He looked like LeBron again. And we're all sitting there going, this is unbelievable. Like, he's in his 40s now… how is he still doing this?” (A, 12:22)

5. Warriors, Draymond Dilemma, and Potential Trades

• [14:06] – With Draymond’s production down and emotional volatility up, is a trade on the table?
  • Legler: “I never saw a guy by his own volition get up and walk to the locker room during the game... That's a pretty big thing.”
  • Simmons: “What would they do? I still doubt they would ever do it and remove them, but I don't doubt it.”
  • Possibilities: Draymond to Lakers, Sabonis for Warriors, Warriors’ potential one-more-go.

Quote

• “Are the dividends with the winning and the leadership and the defense... still outweighing all of that?” (B, 17:29)

6. The NBA’s Dog Days and Trade Rumors

• [22:49] Simmons & Legler on navigating January: trade rumors, fading adrenaline, and how front offices reassess as teams hit midseason fatigue.
  • “Now. Teams are starting to find out kind of like what they really are. When you've played a third of the season, you start to have a better idea…” (B, 23:24)
  • Holidays and trade buzz can change team chemistry, leading to surprise moves.

7. Team Deep Dives: Celtics, Spurs, Houston

• [25:42] Celtics: Unique situation "hanging tough" without Tatum, poised for a boost on his return.
• [27:01] Houston: Christmas showcase a chance to solve “end of game offense” riddles, as teams blitz Durant and force others to step up.
  • Legler: “Teams are figuring them out a little bit… They don't have a great identity offensively down the stretch of games.” (B, 29:14)

8. ‘Players Better Than You Think’ Draft

[35:01 – 68:00; Key timestamps for major players noted below]

The duo alternates naming leap players, identifying surprising developments, “untouchability,” and All-NBA candidacy.

1. Jalen Johnson (ATL) – [35:01]

• Legler: “He's kind of blowing me away… He’s having like 35, 13 and nine nights.”
  • Major leap, untouchable for trades, high upside.

2. Nikola Jokic – [39:05]

• Simmons: “We’re used to it but right now he’s averaging 29, 12 and 11… leading the NBA in rebounds and assists.”
  • Legler: “It’s incomprehensible someone could do that… Not a lot of people fully understand what this guy is doing on a nightly basis.”

3. AJ Mitchell (OKC) – [43:11]

• Legler: Breakout backup, all-star potential on a different team. “It’s got that sort of feel to it. Backing up two great players… I think AJ Mitchell is potentially, like, going to become a star.”

4. Jaylen Brown (Boston) – [45:15]

• Simmons: “I can't believe how good Jalen Brown has been offensively this year… He's been more unselfish than ever. He's averaging 29 a game, 6 and 5, shooting 50%.”
• Legler: “Very rare… that a player in his 10th year can find another level offensively.”

5. Reed Sheppard (Houston) – [51:08]

• Legler: “He has tremendous elevation… He’s become one of the most important players on their team.”
• Simmons: “I like watching him on fast breaks… He kind of knows what to do and where to go…”

Other Shoutouts:

• Colin Gillespie (Phoenix): “Tough as nails… the typical Villanova thing, they just belong in the bright lights.” (B, 60:02)
• Deni Avdija (Portland): “His all-around game has really blown away my expectations… averaging just under 26, seven boards, six and a half assists…” (B, 68:53)
• Michael Porter Jr. (Washington): “Toe to toe with best player on the floor games… I think he's probably added four wins to their total…” (A, 71:54)

(Many more discussed through rapid-fire.)

9. Most Improved Player: How Should it Be Defined?

• [77:13]
  • Criteria confusion: True development, more opportunity, or both?
  • Legler’s Ten Candidates: Jalen Johnson, AJ Mitchell, Reed Sheppard, Jalen Duren, Alex Sarr, Nikhil Alexander-Walker, Ryan Rollins, Keonte George, Colin Gillespie, Deni Avdija.
  • Simmons: “There should be a separate award: Where the F--- Did You Come From Award.”

10. Boston Celtics’ Pacers Parallel

• [86:50]
  • Simmons: "They remind me a lot of the Pacers last year… built around guards, awesome forward, rim protection, try-hard wings."
  • Legler: “I like that a lot. I get the same vibe watching them offensively… pretty incredible what they've been able to do.”

11. NBA Christmas Games Scheduling Quibbles – [91:31]

• Simmons and Legler wish for more Eastern Conference inclusion and matchups with playoff rematch juice (e.g., Detroit-Knicks).
• Lighthearted banter on the quirks of this year’s holiday schedule.

NFL PICKS AND GAMBLING WITH JOE HOUSE (103:00+)

(Switches gears at ~102:35; timestamps abbreviated for interest highlights)

1. Betting Recap & Week 17 Variant Woes (103:22)

• Simmons and House lament the variance-laden late season gambling chaos.
• Recap of previous week’s successes and regrets.

2. Holiday Picks & Christmas Games Discussion (106:11+)

• House is in festive, slightly tipsy spirits, offering picks and angles:
  • Washington +7 vs. Dallas – House: “They’re going to beat Washington's ass…” (C, 107:17)
  • Vikings +7 vs. Lions – Both like the line, believe Vikings defense can keep it close.
  • Broncos -12.5 vs. Chiefs – Some hesitation in fading Kelsey’s potential farewell in KC.

3. Parlay and Teaser Possibilities

• Ravens+4.5/pk, Chargers -1.5 highlighted;
• House likes Eagles and 49ers, the two favorite side bets of the week;
• Touches on playoff implications for Colts, Texans, Chargers, and more.

4. Fun with NBA Holiday Parlays

• Brief NBA betting segment: contemplate wild five-team holiday moneyline parlay.

NOTABLE QUOTES & MEMORABLE MOMENTS

• On LeBron’s Longevity:
  "How does that make any sense whatsoever? How is it possible he can still look like the best athlete on the court for stretches of games north of 40, this many years into the league?" (B, 13:09)

• On Draymond Green’s Meltdown:
  "I never saw a guy by his own volition get up and walk to the locker room during the game... That's a pretty big thing." (B, 15:27)

• On Celtics’ Effort Guys:
  "I honestly, I think Mozilla created him in a laboratory… He's flying around like he just had 17 coffees… other teams hate playing against him." (A, 89:43)

TIMESTAMPS FOR ESSENTIAL SEGMENTS

• Holiday NBA scheduling and Legler’s duties – 04:12
• Are there seven real contenders? – 05:33
• Cavaliers and Magic: trust issues – 07:30
• LeBron and Lakers “star power test” – 12:22
• Draymond trade hypotheticals – 15:27
• Navigating trade deadline doldrums – 23:24
• “Players Better than You Think” draft – 35:01–68:00
• Most Improved Player criteria – 77:13
• Celtics as “this year’s Pacers” – 86:50
• NBA Christmas wish list complaints – 91:31
• House enters for NFL picks and holiday spirits – 103:00

TONE & STYLE

Simmons, Legler, and House bring playful candor, self-aware fandom, quick stats, and willingness to interrogate their own ideas—never afraid to name names or poke fun at their prior opinions. The episode’s flow is conversational and unfiltered, easily welcoming both diehard and casual listeners.

FINAL THOUGHTS

This episode is a holiday basket of sharp basketball analysis—digging into rising stars, playoff CPA math, team identities, and the quirks of league scheduling—blended with the annual Ringer tradition of NFL gambling banter. Simmons, Legler, and House offer equal parts insight and entertainment, making it a must-listen for fans tracking the NBA’s evolving hierarchy or betting on the NFL’s holiday slate.