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Bill Simmons
This episode is brought to you by HubSpot. You know why elite point guards make everyone better? It isn't just the no look dimes. It's because they know everything. Who's hot, who's tired, what the defense is doing, which teammate needs a basket. Most businesses don't have that. Sales run one play, marketing runs another. Nobody told service. The game plan has now changed. HubSpot gives you that point guard vision. One platform, full customer context. And that context is everything you need to win. Visit HubSpot.com to learn more. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by fanduel. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where I put up a new rewatchables. On Monday we did There's Something About Mary which is also on Netflix. It was me and Sid, C.R. and Sean. The OG crew had a great time. Lot of fun discussions. You can go check that out on Spotify, on Netflix, wherever you get your podcasts for next week. Just giving you the heads up now, we did Tropic Thunder, so that is coming on Monday. I think it's on Netflix. I'm pretty sure that's why we want to do it. But pretty easy movie to find. Almost 20 years since it came out and a really fun one to revisit. So that's happening. If you like narrative podcasts, we put up the last episode of Legata that went up on Tuesday. If you missed it, please go check it out. Great one to power walk, drive in the car with. Really, really good. Really proud of this one. So check that out whenever you have a chance. Coming up on this podcast, the one and only Nick Wright is here. We're going to talk about the San Antonio Minnesota series. We're going to talk about my Celtics and what the hell happened and what's happening with Jaylen Brown. Does he want to be a Celtic? We're going to talk about LeBron. Are we evaluating him correctly in the Ringer? Nick was upset that we we probably weren't a lot on the San Antonio Minnesota series, which we both feel like something really crazy might be happening there. And then last but not least, I do this every year. Usually we do it on a Sunday, but the latter is on a Sunday this year and Zach Lowe's going to be at it. So instead we're doing the lottery karma rankings today. And that was the last part of this podcast, trying to figure out who should win the NBA lottery just from a karma standpoint. So that is all coming up next. We're gonna take a Break and then Pearl Jam. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. It's been a wild playoff run, not over yet. FanDuel wants to bring you closer to the court to make all of that action come to life for you. The basketball fan. Fanduel the best place to bet the team's players plays during NBA post season. Build a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout or try live betting and jump into the action right after. Tip off whatever you want. That's the whole point of live betting. Download the FanDuel Sportsbook app right now and play your game. 21 select states are 18 DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Game problem call 1-800-Gambler, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org ChatInElectric SA. All right, we're recording with Nick Wright about an hour or so after you did. First things first. I like when you're a little groggy. I feel like I have an advantage. You know, you've basically played a whole game, now you're doing a double header. This is good for me.
Nick Wright
Correct. Which is why, you know, I, I have a light rule that if I'm potting after 6pm Eastern, I drink red wine while I'm doing it. But I really, I need to be have, you know, all my sensibilities to be able to combat whatever stuff you throw at me. So I, I have a big glass of pink lemonade, a backup bottle of water. I'm going straight sober to deal because I don't know how you're, I don't really know the state you're in. This is, you're the Celtics who I picked to win the title. And I know now you're like, ah, they were never going to win the title. You thought they could maybe win the title. They're out. And so I don't know how you're doing.
Bill Simmons
Terrible.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
Excited. I mean, the Lakers are still playing, the Celtics are at home.
Bill Simmons
It's a catastrophe. I woke up at four in the morning and I was just lying in bed staring at the ceiling. I just woke up, I went for a power walk at like 7:30 in the morning, was walking around, I was talking to my dad two days after the game, still furious at everybody. My dad, this is the maddest he's ever been after a series.
Nick Wright
I mean, Ron Harper Jr. Not gonna save the season, it turns out. I, I, so I'm, here's the thing. I think I'm most stunned by you could argue of every.
Bill Simmons
I don't know who we were leading with this.
Nick Wright
Sorry. Will you start?
Bill Simmons
No, it's all right. Go.
Nick Wright
You. You could argue of every contender in NBA history, there was not one better prepared for. Oh, our best players out for game seven. What are we going to do then this year? Celtics.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
Who had 65 games of that scenario. So I don't under. I didn't understand that from Missoula. The starting lineup and I. How do you grade four years of Missoula? Year two, crush everyone en route to a championship. And every other year, horrifying defeat as huge favorite.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Did you see the numbers? It's like plus 500, plus 900 and plus a thousand, I think. Were the three. Something like that?
Nick Wright
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, pretty bad. It's real. It's. And so I don't. You know, And. And then. And you. And you did a very. I feel like you don't want them to break up Tatum and Brown, but you acknowledging that it might happen really helped the conversation get going. So it was. Journalistically, I respect it, even though it caused pain for you. But I think Jaylen Brown. I think Jalen Brown. I think there is a very interesting trade where Atlanta sends a bunch of stuff, including Milwaukee's own pick back to Milwaukee. Atlanta gets Jalen Brown, who would fit with them perfectly, who's from there, and Giannis goes to Boston. That probably makes more sense than Giannis for Jalen Brown straight up. Because why. Why would Milwaukee necessarily want to do that? That, I think, for Boston's a really interesting possibility here.
Bill Simmons
I have it in my notes. I mean, we. We hinted at it on. On the Sunday pod. As we were doing the Sunday pod, Zach and I, Jalen was doing this Twitch stream. It did not go over well with the fan base. I'll just say that, look, he's. It's a free country. You do what you want. But over and over again, the theme from him this year has been, this has been the most fun season he's ever had.
Nick Wright
Time of my life, this is.
Bill Simmons
And even the Game seven stuff of that was the pace we should have played all along. I liked how. I liked the style we had that game. And it's just very. It's becoming very clear to me and I think to a lot of other people that he wants his own team, and that's fine, but I think we can accommodate this. The trade you mentioned is the most logical trade because you left out one thing. They also have a almost $28 million trade exception. So they can trade with Milwaukee, and they can also take a contract back and actually save Milwaukee money. And because they got under the tax this year, they can actually go over the tax. Right. So they have Kuzma for one year left, like 22. You could just take that as part of the trade and absorb it. Or you could take my. Hey, did you not like the Miles Turner experiment? We'll take them off your hands. He fits in that thing, too.
Nick Wright
The trade. Who has the trade exception?
Bill Simmons
The Boston or Atlanta? Boston does. Okay, so Boston could basically get Giannis and a year of Kuzma, send Jalen out, send a pick to Milwaukee, and then Atlanta sends, you know, Reese Sachet, Dyson Daniels, and the. Whatever that pick is.
Nick Wright
Well, so, yeah, and the thing is, it's super valuable in this regard. Cause we'll see what that Atlanta pick, you know, we're. I know. Talk lottery later. They have potentially a really good pick this year, but since they have Milwaukee's 27 pick, Milwaukee being able to get that back and be like, all right, next year, we're going to suck and reap the benefits of it before we get going. And I think Jalen would be great with Atlanta. I think that would.
Bill Simmons
I have him and Jalen Johnson. You bring McCollum back.
Nick Wright
Yeah, that's something here.
Bill Simmons
Were you a Wire guy?
Nick Wright
Yeah, of course.
Bill Simmons
So I used to do this thing when I had my column back when my fingers worked about Durant and Westbrook, about wondering if the Stringer Avon thing was gonna happen and bring them down. Right. And I was writing about this, and it really did not go over well with, I think, either of them or anyone in okc. But the whole point was like the balcony scene in the Wire where Avon comes back, but Stringer's kind of been running the show, and they start side eyeing each other a little bit. My fear with the Celtics season was that they were. It was a little like the wire thing where Stringer was running the show. In this case, Jaylen Tatum comes back like Avon. It's like, okay, guys, we're a partnership again. But Stringer got a taste of running the show. I didn't really fully think until that Twitch stream that this is kind of what Jalen wants so that I want them to stay together, but maybe this is just how the league goes.
Nick Wright
So I want to talk about the Twitch stream for a minute.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, okay.
Nick Wright
So. Because I find Jalen to be both of these guys. Tatum. I find I found Tatum's openness and vulnerability in his recovery process. One of the most Remarkable and endearing things from a star athlete I've ever seen him flatly saying before the New York game. Yeah, you know, I, I, it's in my head, but I need to get over it. Like being back on the court. Like, I thought it was stunning his approach there and I thought his recovery that obviously hit a wall here at the worst time was remarkable.
Bill Simmons
Well, and then I would also add just him traveling with the team everywhere and being kind of needing to be on the team and to be involved and watching them and being a part of it. Other guys just would disappear. He didn't.
Nick Wright
He's the blueprint now, I think for how you deal with something like this.
Bill Simmons
I agree.
Nick Wright
Jaylen I find fascinating because I truly believe if all 450 NBA guys took an IQ test, I bet Jaylen's in the top couple percent. Yeah, I think Jaylen is a very thoughtful and guy and a guy who's off court causes I think are really important and does like, he just is a smart, thoughtful guy.
Bill Simmons
Well, and also the stuff he does in the city of Boston is the highest possible level of an athlete's relationship with the city. That's another thing you have to think about if you're trading him.
Nick Wright
Right. So all of that is, like, true. And here's what's also true. He has some of the, like, wildest takes I've ever heard. Like the, the, the part of the twitch stream where it was, yeah, there was basically a conspiracy against me from the league because I've criticized the refs. Like, are you serious?
Bill Simmons
Yeah, yeah.
Nick Wright
And where he's like, yeah, the refs confirmed it to me because before the game they said, we're watching. Like, buddy, that's not because you criticize him. It's because the other team's like, hey, he pushes off. So they're letting you know they flagged it to us. Him saying the fact that he is that smart and yet thought it would go over well to be like, yeah, I know I've won a championship here and been to six conference finals, but the year where my running mate was out with the torn Achilles and we flamed out a 31 lead in round one, best year ever. Even if you feel that way, that ain't going to go over well. And then the decision to do it and to do it with those three dudes just standing, like none of it made any sense. It was. And so I'm like, I know he's a smart, thoughtful guy, yet he's doing this, which is well, so.
Bill Simmons
But you have to Flip that around. So why is he doing it?
Nick Wright
Correct.
Bill Simmons
And he is a smart guy. And I think that's my takeaway after that was he's probably okay with moving on. And you forgot to mention with that thing about the best year of his career. This is my dad. I was talking to my dad was, like, angry for my dad, but then started talking about how the NHL lottery is tonight, and if the Maple Leafs fall to six, we get their pick. So he's moving on. But my dad was like, we won the title two years ago. We were one of statistically the best teams of all time. We ran through it. He was a huge part of it. He won finals MVP and conference finals mvp. How is that not the most fun year of his career? My dad was like, I just don't understand. Like, I would love for him to explain how this was. And I. Jalen was saying, like, look, everyone counted us out. There was this adversity. They were calling us the gap year Celtics, and we banded together. But the way the season ended, there's no way that could be your most fun year.
Nick Wright
Correct. And it'd be one thing if, you know, if Scotty Pippen said, Hey, 94 was the most gratifying year of my career. I was always number two, every. Jordan won every award, always. And in 94, we overachieved, we had a great season, we won around. That'd be. That'd be one thing.
Bill Simmons
I think that would also be insane.
Nick Wright
I. Well, it would. I understand that. That you probably wouldn't say it, but I would get it more than if Scotty had in 93, one finals MVP. And. And people thought he was awesome. Like, it was.
Bill Simmons
Well, how about let's say you get hit by a bus tomorrow and you're recovering for nine months, and as this is happening, the first things first has to resolve. Revolve around Wilds.
Nick Wright
That's what I said.
Bill Simmons
And all Wilds is doing is like, this is the most fun I've ever had doing tv. People would be like, whoa, he must hate Nick. Let's go ahead.
Nick Wright
That is. That's the exact comp I said. I said, I do the podcast. I do what's right. Yeah, no, well, I. So I do the. That podcast with my son.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And I said to. I said that to him this morning. I was like, if I got, you know, pneumonia and was in the hospital for two months, and you were.
Bill Simmons
You were on a yacht. You were in the hantavirus. You were on a cruise ship.
Nick Wright
Exactly.
Bill Simmons
You were stuck on a cruise ship.
Nick Wright
For six months and you're doing the pod without me. And I keep seeing these clips of you saying to the producers, boys, I don't think the show's ever been better than right now. I'd be like, what the fuck, buddy? I'm trying to get back. And so. But that's what it was. And you said throughout the year, and I think it's right. He was like 10% too happy about how it was going. Yeah.
Bill Simmons
He almost needed like a crisis consultant to say, hey, every three weeks, don't forget to talk about your brother J.T. and how great it's gonna be when he comes back. But you could feel it in the playoff series. Cause they did slow down. They did play a different style. I was talking about on my podcast, everyone I did. I was like, I don't really like how they look. I don't. Something's different. We're not using the bench. And this is, you know, some Missoula stuff. But like I said on Sunday, I think they were using that Sixer series as a tinkering lab for the Knicks series, not realizing Philly was going to blossom into this. I mean, Philly might not win another game in the playoffs. This might, this might have been a five day Philly run. That is just this crazy blip. Right?
Nick Wright
Yeah. I mean, that's game one was obviously a disaster.
Bill Simmons
You knew they were going to lose.
Nick Wright
Right? That's the thing. I, I think they can win the series, but they were drawing dead to win that game. After the 31 comeback, we'll see what they look like in Game 2. They also might be when. If Embiid's healthy. That's a legit, really good top four guys like Paul George playing the way he is. Embiid, Maxi and Edgcomb. That's legit. They don't have a bench, but they, they have those guys. Here's my question for you on Boston. Before we get to the stuff you wanted to get to.
Bill Simmons
Well, I have a. And I have a Giannis thing we should talk about too, but go.
Nick Wright
Okay, let's do. Because obviously the hot button thing is the threes. All the threes. All the three. Reason.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
Do you think that that is while when our pal Daryl did that against the Rockets and did it or did. I'm sorry. Did that against the warriors with the Rockets. What was underlying all that was we're the underdog. We need. We are not. They have more talent. We need to add more variance to the equation. Are the Celtics underselling their position in the Eastern Conference by adding so much variance to these playoff series. Should that be the strategy if you make the finals against the Thunder, but not the strategy in round two last year against the Knicks or round one this year against the Sixers? Team without Embiid, like, it fit. It felt like an underdog NFL team that's like, we're on side kicking every time back in the day, or we're going for trick plays. But you're not the underdog, right?
Bill Simmons
They're doing five wide receiver every down, never running ever.
Nick Wright
And so that's my question for Missoula. Like, can you throttle it down when you have the better team and then throttle it up when you do need to add the variance? Because the other. Because you're overmatched and he's just never done it. It's just all gas at all times.
Bill Simmons
In 24? It made more sense because the players they had were so good. And they had Horford and Poingis and Drew Hol, three guys who weren't on this team. It felt like they had to do it a little more with the math before Tatum got back. But when Tatum got back, I think they were trying to change it a little bit. And yet the habits and the games didn't reflect it. They shot in game two. They shot 50 threes. I think that was with no Embiid. I was just the coaching strategy stuff. And it's weird because I think Missoula's a really good coach. I just think he kind of whiffed on the series, but I don't think it was. It doesn't make me think they should fire him or anything. I just think he. I think he misread it. Because I think the way to beat the Sixers, especially those first couple games with Adam beat, is like, you just gotta stop Maxi. Like, we have all these wings. You have, you know, Hugo, you've Walsh, Scheierman. Let's throw Derek White on him all. Let's just not let him go get going ever. And instead they're like, hey, I wonder if Vucevich can hop out in time on these threes. It's like, I. I can tell you right now, I can't. This is definitely not happening. So. Yeah, but your bigger question is, do they need to game the math like this? We saw it in San Antonio, Minnesota last night. We're taping this on a Tuesday. You know what's really nice sometimes are like 12 foot Julius Randle bang into the body shots just to keep going. You know what's really Nice for Philly, like Embiid just getting nice, easy eight to ten footers. And you need a balance of that. And they lost the balance.
Nick Wright
And there is one last thing before we do your Giannis thing. Three is worth more than two, but a one point lead, the difference between trailing by one and leading by one in a playoff game is 10 miles wide. And the difference between leading by one and leading by two is six inches wide.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
So when you. When you had six possessions in a row down one point in the fourth quarter of a game seven. I don't give a shit if I can be up to. I just want to be up. I just want Philly ball.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
I want Philly to be like, oh, no, did we blow it? And. And it's what we have seen. And I just think teams have screwed that up. And I think I am. I'm stunned Boston lost the way they did. And it does make you wonder, like you said that Giannis would fix a lot of this just by virtue of the fact he ain't shooting threes.
Bill Simmons
He is giving you that points and fast breaks.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
The problem. I went back and I watched that fourth quarter again and I. The shots were actually good shots. No, I could see, like, Jalen had a couple, two pointers that he just made all year. They were like 12 footers.
Nick Wright
Now, the one where I forget who. Someone falls down.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, yeah.
Nick Wright
He's shooting right inside the foul line,
Bill Simmons
jump line, Pritchard in the corner. I would bet my life on that shot. He missed it. So you can go to the summer and be like, oh, we usually make those shots. But they lost the series in game two and game five. That was when their style went sideways. So the Giannis piece, which I did a whole thing about it, I don't know, maybe six weeks ago, talking about my fears for trading too much for him, because I think he's going into his 14th season. The track record is terrible. It's basically like just even guys doing 23 and 10. There's like four of them ever. Not to mention he's been injured in some capacity, I think every year for the five of the last six, something like that.
Nick Wright
Since the title, at least three of the years, major injury, lot of miles.
Bill Simmons
And then you think about big guys with. You think about Dwight Howard, the second part of his career, you think about Shaq, the second part of his career. Like, big guys, they don't necessarily age in the greatest ways. So I don't think he's worth as much as we thought a year and A half ago where it was like, oh, my God, you trade everything for that guy. I don't think that's the case. I don't think you're going to approach it that way.
Nick Wright
But you would trade Jaylen Brown straight up.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. I think that. My point is, I think the Celtics have enough to get him without gutting the entire whatever, because I think his values dropped.
Nick Wright
Especially because here's the other thing. The reason why I think the Celtics have enough to get him because a Shingoon package looks less attractive today.
Bill Simmons
No question. How about Evan Mobley is. Looks less attractive than it did a year ago. He's the same guy who was a year ago.
Nick Wright
Right. And so the, like, who you're competing with and how that now Atlanta putting together the package we're discussing and cutting Boston out, I guess, is interesting. If they decide that's the move that's
Bill Simmons
going to be this Sunday and we're talking lottery a little bit later Sunday, if Atlanta gets into that top four, they're out of the J. I'd rather have the top four pick than Jalen. I think it has more trade value.
Nick Wright
Oh, interesting.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. There's no question Jalen's making 60 million a year. And you could have Cam Boozer or. I love Caleb Wilson. I actually have Caleb Wilson higher on my board. I'll show. Wow. I have a board. No, I don't. But my. My fake board. You have those guys for 10 million a year on a rookie contract versus paying Jalen 60. That'd be irresponsible to trade that pick for Jalen.
Nick Wright
I think so, yeah. I mean, I feel like. I feel like four is where it's interesting. I think top three definitively has, like, this intense value. I don't.
Bill Simmons
No, you. You. You're going to get on board with Caleb Wilson.
Nick Wright
Okay. All right. I think he's.
Bill Simmons
I think he is higher than four on multiple teams. Boards already.
Nick Wright
No, but that's what I'm saying. It's. I'm. What I'm. I agree with you on that. I don't. I'm not as in love with Boozer as everyone else. I think if the draft goes.
Bill Simmons
Do you do the thing I do when you're watching the playoffs and you try to imagine the guy in the game you're watching. I was trying to imagine him in the San Antonio, Minnesota game last night. I was like, well, all right. I could see him guarding Randall.
Nick Wright
I mean, I know this is going to sound pretty dumb or obvious. You know who Cam Boozer reminds me of Guy named Carlos Boozer, his dad like that guy that is going to have a really solid 12 year NBA career.
Bill Simmons
I think he's a better passer.
Nick Wright
The. Sure I. The games change. But my point is a. A guy who I think of all the top prospects, Cam probably has the lowest bust potential, like the least likely to be a bust. But I think he's also the least likely to be an mvp. Like. And so that's why I'm not as high on him maybe as other guys.
Bill Simmons
I would take Caleb second. Now. I'm. I reserved the right to change my mind and go.
Nick Wright
Caleb Peterson. Yeah, Peterson's.
Bill Simmons
I think Caleb's going to be unbelievable. That guy. The same thing with Castle was similar where it's just like the guy's too competitive. He's too athletic and he's too competitive. Those guys always win. We see it doesn't matter what team it has, what draft. Like, he's got that. I know what that is. And he's like a combination of like Sean Kemp and Chet. I think he's going to be really special. So I'd be careful passing on him. But yeah, for the honest thing, if I'm in Atlanta now, if I'm in 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 now I could really think about the Jalen thing because you think like now I could have. Because Jalen Johnson, as much as I like him and I voted for him all NBA, he's. He's kind of a 1B. I'm not sure he's a 1A. You could feel it in that playoff series. It's not like, hey, clear out guys. I got this. He's not. That's not the type of player he is.
Nick Wright
No, he's. His ceiling is like a better offensive Iguodala, right?
Bill Simmons
Yeah. He's in like a better Jalen Williams. Like, that's like, yes.
Nick Wright
A guy who can do everything is a winning player, you know, can def. Can definitely be a key part of a championship team. But if he's your best player, you've got no shot.
Bill Simmons
No shot.
Nick Wright
Just no. No shot of winning a title.
Bill Simmons
So what would you give up? How. How much would you. How crazy would you get for Giannis? For.
Nick Wright
If I'm. What team?
Bill Simmons
Pick a team.
Nick Wright
I. I mean, I think if you're
Bill Simmons
Miami, would you gut everything you had and all?
Nick Wright
I don't know what that.
Bill Simmons
I just wouldn't know.
Nick Wright
I know because I don't know what that achieves. If I. Now all of a sudden Giannis is just in Milwaukee South. Like, I. I Mean, the Knicks would
Bill Simmons
have been the one that were like, fuck it, we have a window. We gotta do this. But the Knicks are gonna make the Finals, I think. I don't. I don't see anybody stopping.
Nick Wright
And also, I don't love any of the Knicks trades.
Bill Simmons
Right.
Nick Wright
Like the. Because they traded their picks. No, I. If I were Detroit, would I give up a. You know, I haven't done the trade.
Bill Simmons
No, it's.
Nick Wright
That's.
Bill Simmons
You're looking at Durin and all your picks, basically.
Nick Wright
Would I give up Duran and all my picks?
Bill Simmons
And I don't even know if Milwaukee. If that. If that's.
Nick Wright
I don't know. Right. If that. If Milwaukee wants it. I think the easiest trade is going. Would be. The reason I think the Celtics are very live here is because it's so easy.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
Jalen and Giannis make the same amount of money you can. You have a third if you need a third team. Atlanta makes a ton of sense at like, there's just.
Bill Simmons
By the way, you can't get out New Orleans. New Orleans might be like, we've always loved Jalen and all of a sudden they're in it.
Nick Wright
Oh, yeah.
Bill Simmons
They're capable of anything.
Nick Wright
Yeah, they are. That's. When we do this lottery karma thing. I've got something on that. Yeah. The. So I. But no, I agree with you that Giannis is right now the fifth best player in the league and oddly does
Bill Simmons
not have the fifth trade value.
Nick Wright
No, not at all.
Bill Simmons
And I think there's teams that are. Would maybe be like, we're good, like OKC San Antonio. I don't think those teams would trade for him.
Nick Wright
Well, let me. Hold on. So that's an interesting. San Antonio is an interesting one, I think.
Bill Simmons
I think they're. They're. They love their culture and their young guys. I don't think they. I think they'd obviously love to win the title this year, but I don't think they'd feel like the season was a failure if they lost. And they're looking at the long Runway,
Nick Wright
you know, not the season's a failure, but let's just. Let's just say Minnesota beats them in six and Fox struggles in the way he did in Game one throughout the
Bill Simmons
series, then Fox is the fall guy after the series.
Nick Wright
Yes. And added bonus, Wimby gets pushed around a bit like he did in game one.
Bill Simmons
You mean, Wemby shoots five for 18 and. And short arms. Every big shot down the stretch like that and.
Nick Wright
And gets, you know, physically pushed around. Like, that's the Thing for Wimby is A, he was exhausted at the end
Bill Simmons
of that game, falling down all over the place.
Nick Wright
Yeah, he's not used to playing big minutes and, and he's so he's doing all that. B, Gobert is strong as hell and Nasrid and Julius Randle are strong as hell and they were pushing him around. If I do wonder if San Antonio loses in bad fashion if they feel like we're. Listen, we're not abandoning our future or our plan and we're keeping Harper, Castle and Wimy, but De' Aon, Fox, another contract and a bunch of our picks for Giannis. So, you know, so there isn't such a heavy offensive load on Wimby. And oh yeah, by the way, we just become, you know, a better defensive team than OKC like that. That's something I would think about.
Bill Simmons
I would, I'd be more excited to just play Carter Bryant more next year and ride this out. And I would. Giannis feels like a panic move to me like that. Like Sam Presti to me. I always say, what would Sam Presti do that as a. Sam Presti would not do that. He would probably look at the Harper situation. Cause we all love Harper. We wanted to expound on him. But as like, okay, Fox. Fox was our training wheels. Now we gotta send Fox off. Let's get like another score in that spot. Maybe somebody with a little more size and think about it that way. We gotta take a break. I want to talk about San Antonio, Minnesota and I think you and I are feeling similar about this series.
Nick Wright
Perfect.
Bill Simmons
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Nick Wright
Well, okay, so I. So I went to Vegas to see the Benavidez fight. Who.
Bill Simmons
Who is one of the scariest boxers we've had in the last 20 years.
Nick Wright
Unbelievable.
Bill Simmons
He broke the guy's face on Saturday night.
Nick Wright
No, he. He destroyed it. He broke his orbital. The guy. The guy who he fought, Zerto, had never been knocked down.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
Much less knocked out. Was a total warrior, and Benavidez just annihilated him. And I, by the way, I had Benavidez by knockout. Nice little ticket with my buddy Nick Schulman, the world's greatest poker player who's a boxing fan.
Bill Simmons
That's like an automatic bet.
Nick Wright
And. But so I'm in Vegas Saturday morning, and I'm on my way to the sports book, or I'm at the sports book to bet Benavidez, and I. And I see the championship odds, and I see the, you know, OKC minus 1, 25, whatever they were at the time. Spurs, the Lakers at 28 to 1 and then 28 to 1.
Bill Simmons
Well, that's because the California people come and they bet the Lakers.
Nick Wright
But that's still important context for what I'm about to say. Then I see beneath the Laker, the lakers who play OKC, and Luca is injured.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
Are 28 to 1. Minnesota is 200 to 1. Saturday morning, Orlando was 400 to 1. This was 12 hours after Orlando played the worst half of basketball in television history. There's never been a televised half of basketball worse than what they did. They're not even going to make.
Bill Simmons
Can we count fictional shows for that?
Nick Wright
4 of 37 is worse than Saved by the Bell.
Bill Simmons
Probably had a word. Yeah. Saved by the Bell or Fresh Prince. Yeah. We need a fictional basketball.
Nick Wright
So I'm like, Orlando's 400 to 1.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
I'm like, what the. I was like. So I. I'm. I'm staring at it. I'm like, hold on. I watched, speaking of Giannis. Giannis suffer this same injury Anthony Edwards did. He missed seven days, came back for game one of the finals.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And averaged 35, 13, and 6. I was like, I think Anthony Edwards might come back sooner than people think. I think that there is just always this weird specter of injury looming over Wimby. I was like, 200 to 1.
Bill Simmons
He's 7 foot 7. Any at any point, he could get hurt.
Nick Wright
Correct. I was like, it's 200 to 1. So I'm like. I had won in poker the night before, so I'm like, I think I'm gonna put, like, a thousand bucks on this.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
I'm texting my buddies. All of a sudden, a couple my buddies want in. Want in. And they're like, hey, see if they'll take $10,000 on it. And I'm like, okay. My guess is an amazing story. I was like, my guess is they won't, but I'm not. Sharp action, like, you know what I mean? It's not like they're like, oh, this. Like, I come to Vegas to play cards. They see my history. I win a little in poker. I spill it off playing blackjack at 4 in the morning. They don't think. All of a sudden, I have like. You know, I have inside info.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Vacuum. Vacuum blackjack. When they're vacuum under you, that's exactly giving your money away.
Nick Wright
They see on their cards, they're like, my God, we've. We've comp. This guy $1200 in packs of Newports over the last year.
Bill Simmons
And he said, the vacuum hours.
Nick Wright
So. So I walked to the window, and I'm like, hey, oh, and the Derby, and I. And people are betting the Derby. It's a couple hours before the Derby.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And I say. I'm like, hey, I'd like $10,000 on the Timberwolves to win the title. And the lady pulls it up, and she's like, oh. She's like, I'm gonna have to get a manager.
Bill Simmons
You should have said 9,000. I don't. I think once it gets to five figures, they get freaked out.
Nick Wright
No. Well, what she said was, any ticket that'll pay out more than a million. Which 5,000 would have paid out a million because it's 200 to 1.
Bill Simmons
Right.
Nick Wright
We have to get a. Get permission.
Bill Simmons
Oh, Jesus.
Nick Wright
Okay. So I'm just sitting there. People are betting the horses, ladies. Like, I think they'll. She's like, I'm sure they'll take at least 5,000 of it. So I'm texting my buddies because we're gonna split this ticket four ways. Like I, you know, here's what it is.
Bill Simmons
I don't know.
Nick Wright
Five minutes later, guy comes, he's like, you're good. They printed the ticket. So I have in my possession on the Minnesota timberwolves is unbelievable. 10,000 to win 2 million. 10,000. They were 200 to 1. It's been three days. What are they on FanDuel right now, Bill? They're 25 to 1.
Bill Simmons
35 to 1 35. Great investment.
Nick Wright
The ticket. Right now the ticket's worth $65,000. I mean, I would never hedge, I'll never sell it and it'll probably lose, but that it was just mispriced. It's like it's just a mistake. Yes, mistake.
Bill Simmons
You could now. So I try to hedge that with okc. Like there's moves you can.
Nick Wright
Well, I'll tell you another thing that you will laugh at me about. I have not from Vegas, but from, you know, a gambling app. The day before the playoffs started. $101,000 just of my own money. 150 to 1 on the Los Angeles Lakers to win title. So all I just need a Lakers, Lakers T. Wolves, Western Conference finals. And I am free rolling. But I the I w. I was watching last night and I swear like the watching Minnesota play so well and then almost blow it and then champagne have a shot because I now think Minnesota is going to win the series. And had he made that shot, I think they would have lost in five.
Bill Simmons
Right? I think it would have been swept.
Nick Wright
Stomach punch.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
So look, the Celtics had an awful loss on Saturday. My daughter turned 21. I don't like to apologize to my listeners that often. I really regret not studying the Minnesota San Antonio thing way longer. The Edwards thing's a great point. It was basically the same. He came back in nine days. They said it was going to be 14. He was really only on paper, probably only missing game one. But the thing I realized last night, I was watching and I was kicking myself. I was trying to think of 21st century hall of Fame fuck you basketball teams. Just teams that just have fuck you all. Everything they're doing, the way they're carrying themselves, everything. And I think the three I had were the pre melee Pacers, which ended up the fuck you spilled in the crowd. But that the way they carry that first month before the fight, they looked like they were going to win the title. And they looked like a more dangerous, scarier version of the 04 Pistons. The 07 warriors in the We Believe season. Ironically, Stephen Jackson on both of those teams. And I think the 2020 heat had it too. And it was interesting because when that was the series, I screwed this up a pod before where Dragic got hurt. But there was something about that Heat team that they were just. They carried themselves like dragon slayers. Like, do you watch Survivor?
Nick Wright
No.
Bill Simmons
Oh, there's this Survivor contestant coach who tries to. He calls himself the Dragon Slayer and he tries to carry himself like a fuck you guy and it always backfires on him. There's certain teams that actually carry it and could do it.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
And I watched the stuff they said after the game where Shannon's like, I'm going to fucking drive to the basket. And Wemby might block some of them. I'm going to keep coming and he can either block them or I'm going to score. But I'm never going to stop coming to the basket. It's like. I think that's exactly how you have to play San Antonio. Keep coming.
Nick Wright
Right. And you can't because here's the thing. A block shot does not kill a possession as much as a shot clock violation. Because you won't put anything up.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. You might get the ball back.
Nick Wright
One of the biggest shots of the game last night was after a block shot. The. I think it was Conley. The corner three shout out Mike Conley. By the way he be the Rockets could have had him. They probably saved their season. The I am. I would add maybe to your list the grit and grind Grizzlies in who one time.
Bill Simmons
Another great one.
Nick Wright
Didn't. They didn't have their best player for someone in the head.
Bill Simmons
Right.
Nick Wright
In game six of a series.
Bill Simmons
That's a great one.
Nick Wright
So the.
Bill Simmons
The 2011 Grizzlies. I apologize. That's the perfect ad for this.
Nick Wright
And so I. Here's the thing why I feel so good about Minnesota. I don't think they played great yesterday. They were.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. He was mad after the game.
Nick Wright
They were awful from the free throw line. McDaniels was in foul trouble the whole game. So he couldn't do all his shit.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
Ant was just getting back into the flow of it. You could see it. But he ran out of gas at the end and almost blew it.
Bill Simmons
And he only played 25 minutes.
Nick Wright
Right. And they still. And by the. At some point I think IO is going to take those Bones Highland minutes and Bones Highland. He hit the one three. They took it off. But he's over six like.
Bill Simmons
And you left out two other things they have. Nobody believes in us energy, like they're like a football team. This is like watching an NFL playoffs. They finch what he said after the last series where he's like, they wanted to play us. Like that's. This is what they wanted. And that really made us mad. And now this series, same thing where the spurs huge favorites, the darlings. That's one. The other is you don't really realize that sometimes till you're watching it. The spurs are going to need Carter Bryant to come back and actually play real minutes or they're going to lose the series. Because Minnesota has a physicality advantage with Randle and with Edwards and to me, San Antonio last night, three guards, Fissell and Wemby. It's not going to cut it. They're not big enough.
Nick Wright
Well, and. And there's. There's two. There's two other kind of. And I'm not like a X's and O's guys guy. But there's. It's very obvious. There's two things that jumped out to me before the series and now after watching game one, when. When go Bears are on the court, he really is going to give Wimby trouble on offense. However, him being on the court fully unleashes Wimby on defense because Gobert is never going to be anywhere but by the basket. So when he can just play free safety and block everything. However, when Gobert is off the court, they can mitigate Wimby a bit because they can go five out and then go five out and because everybody can shoot. So that's the first.
Bill Simmons
And then also multiple physical guys that can come in. You just want to beat him up. He's 22. He's never been in played 10 straight weeks of playoffs like this.
Nick Wright
Zach, I listened to Zach today. Zach said last night was the third most minutes he's ever played in any game in his career. It was 40, wasn't 46. It was 40. And at the end he looked a little. The final possession, Derek Harper gets the rebound, gives it to Wimby. Wimby gives it right back to him. Like I know and he was gassed.
Bill Simmons
And they didn't remember the Denver, the Saturday game against the back and forth with Joker. Same thing happened. He got gassed in the ot right.
Nick Wright
The game of the year. And by overtime he's out. He's just out of it. And you are how many elbows to the ribs and he had those bruised ribs which at the very end of the year is he going to have From Gobert, Randall and Nasri.
Bill Simmons
How about how many guys going full speed, driving into him, knees hitting his legs, elbows, push offs. I think their whole game plan is to beat the shit out of him.
Nick Wright
And which is why winning, which is why they couldn't blow that first game. Minnesota, like they couldn't have done all that and then lose.
Bill Simmons
Well, that's my five game rule where it's like if you lose that game now, you basically have to win five games at a seven game series. You're not going to win. You have to win.
Nick Wright
Correct. And, and so I, and I just think ant that you. I'm gonna say one other thing that I think is like psychologically just true. And this is a problem probably for a lot of Kevin Durant teams, to be totally honest. The best teams take on the personality of their best player whether he wants them to or not. Like the my, My team, the Kansas City Chiefs. You know why there's never any bulletin board material? Because Mahomes is the most boring press conference there's ever been. And everyone just falls. Falls in line. Brady was like this too right Bra there. The, the Thunder. Shay is kind of a unique personality. I don't want to say corny, but whatever it is, he's got his own thing. Everybody's like, you know what we're doing group photos ruin group commercials. We're, we're, we're doing that. Ant is so God damn fearless.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And confident that not only does the whole team take on the personality. You know who I think it is great for is Go Bear. Who Gobert is just like, man, I've just been a punchline. Everybody make my own team. When I was in Utah, it seemed like sometimes my own teammates didn't like me. The I, the, the inside the NBA makes fun of me. Draymond chokes me. I don't get the respect.
Bill Simmons
And now I started Covid.
Nick Wright
Yeah. Well, that was, I mean that wasn't great. That was, that was not great. And now I like. It's like I've got the toughest crew. And guess what, Joker? Come deal with me. Wimby. This is, this is for. Gobert's going to be in the hall of Fame. And this is the.
Bill Simmons
Everyone's in the hall.
Nick Wright
Could be the.
Bill Simmons
What you say everyone makes the hall of Fame though.
Nick Wright
I. Right, I understand. But four time defensive player he's going to make. This is the moment where he can really puff his chest out and doing it against like. I don't know if Wimy's his protege, but you know this. They're both French. Like, he's known him since he was a kid. Like, I don't know. I think Minnesota's dangerous.
Bill Simmons
A little big brother, little brother thing to that. Like when you know somebody, when you know, when they were 12 and you were 25 or whatever, it is like you're always going to kind of see them that way. What you just described with the Gobert thing with Ant, it's one of my favorite basketball things. The best one ever for this was Bill Laimbeer, who ends up on a team eventually with Mahorn. And then Isaiah, who was probably the toughest guy of the 80s, even though he was 6 foot 2 and that whole team. And then all of a sudden laimbeer's like, by 1990, Lambert's like, I think I can fight Charles Barkley. And gets like, he's throwing actual punches with Barkley. He's clotheslining dudes that. That. You know when you. You can do that when you have those guys around you. And then in the early 90s, those guys weren't around him. And what happened? The Knicks, they come in, the Riley Knicks, and they basically just snatch their souls like a boxer.
Nick Wright
But it's. It's so authentic for. From Ant, Jaden and Julius Randall. Those guys are like, we're badasses and we're going to beat you up. That it is infectious for everybody.
Bill Simmons
The Joker fight seemed like Randall was going to. Or their near fight seemed like Randall wanted to fight everybody in that. Yeah, he definitely has. It's a tough.
Nick Wright
Yeah. And so I just. I don't know, man. I am.
Bill Simmons
So here are my concerns.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
Tell can they ramp up Edwards is minutes enough. They're relying on Zombie Mike Conley, who played a good game six and played decent minutes for them yesterday. But old guys in a series always makes me nervous. What's going to come is IO going to be able to come back and actually play. The Shannon thing. What he brought to the table in Defensenzo's place, I kind of liked it. Just felt like another relentless guy who just. All he wanted to do was ball and get to the rim. San Antonio three point shooting is always going to make me nervous with them. The youth and the inexperience, including the coach. And then the fact that they need Carter Bryant, who's a rookie. I don't even think he's 20 yet, but they're actually going to genuinely need him in this series. And then the big thing is Fox because Fox killed them yesterday and I felt like they didn't want to bench him because they didn't want it to become a story. But they should have and they should have played Harper down the stretch. I don't not going to say Harper's better than Fox, but Fox was so bad in that game and it's going to be a story now because he knows he'll be the fall guy if they lose.
Nick Wright
Yeah, the Fox thing's really disappointing. I've. I lived in Houston when he. We've talked about this a bit. My son was a big time high school and then college basketball player and so they. I was in a lot of the same AU events as de' Aaron Fox.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And he's a little, just a little bit older than my son. I mean, I watched him score 40 points in the first half of a running clock AAU game. I've never seen anybody like him on the court and so I've always. I rooted for him in Sacramento. Yeah, I've always liked him. But he is the fulcrum of this series because I don't care about Harrison Barnes experience. Harrison Barnes is not a key part of the rotation. Luke Cornett has experience. He's a backup center. The only guy with playoff experience that should be on the court in crunch
Bill Simmons
time is Fox Trust. Yeah.
Nick Wright
And if he's not, if he's not up to it, it's such. You're going to have moments like the end of last night. Can we spend a minute talking about the Bears?
Bill Simmons
So he's going against Mike Conley Instead of I.O.
Nick Wright
what happens when the I.O.
Bill Simmons
comes back like this should be. That should have been the easiest game in this series for you.
Nick Wright
What did you make of the final possession for San Antonio young team?
Bill Simmons
I'm calling timeout. A lot of times I like to let the clock go in that situation. I think you do it if you have an older team, experienced team, like if you're the Knicks young team. I'm calling timeout. And I didn't think champagne shot was going in even though it was wide open and it was the best possible shot they could have gotten in kind of that, you know, Harry Carry kind of situation. I would have called timeout, but I don't. It's like staying on 12 and blackjack. You kind of have to decide, is this who I am with this moment? You can't just be like every time I do something differently. So that's apparently what they do.
Nick Wright
So I. So I have two takes, I guess if I'm Mitch Johnson and I see Harper get the rebound and throw it To Wimby. The moment I see that. No, the moment I see that Wimby has now just passed it back. Timeout.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
Like if he threw it to him and Wimy's ripping up the court, like, all right, you know what? Win or die with what this guy decides to do. Either way, it's important moment for him. But once he gave it back, I'd be like, okay, let's talk it over. My other. I normally think down to go for the three because overtime, like try to get the win. It felt to me like because the one time I. I am a bigger fan of playing for overtime is when the other team has just absolutely melted down well.
Bill Simmons
And also has a guy on a minutes restriction who's their best guy.
Nick Wright
I mean, I know Castle had fouled out, which works against it.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
But it just like when, when LeBron hit the 3 in Game 3 against Houston, it was 100% that if Houston did not win in regulation, they were losing in overtime because it was such an emotional devastation that you were there, Minnesota was Saturn.
Bill Simmons
Say their momentum doesn't matter, though.
Nick Wright
I, I don't give a shit. I. There are certain things that you just.
Bill Simmons
You, you know, you know it every time. Especially if you're in the building for that.
Nick Wright
Right. If you blow it, if you're a big underdog that had a game one and then lost it, but and it goes to overtime, you're.
Bill Simmons
It was Pritchard missing the three in the corner. I knew we were going to lose, game was over.
Nick Wright
And so I just. I wouldn't have hated a timeout draw. And the other thing is this. Here's the thing. A timeout allows for you to have. If you are like you're saying San Antonio trying to win and also trying to win next year and like develop something. A good moment for Wimy either way, right? Hey, man, drawing this up for you,
Bill Simmons
win or lose, we know you're five for 18. And they're going to put Rudy Gobert in now that we call timeout.
Nick Wright
All right, so that's fair point. That's a fair point keeping Gobert off the court.
Bill Simmons
But this is the issue with them is who is your. I'm going to create a good shot going downhill for us on our team. And the answer is it's Dylan Harper, who's 19 years old. Even in that moment when he got the rebound. Five years from now, he's gonna know in his head exactly how much time is left and he's off. He gets that. He doesn't throw it To Wemby. He's just going. Cause he knows like I have eight seconds. I gotta go. He's 19. He was like, hey. Oh shit. There's seven seconds left. And you could see it the way. That's the problem with relying on you guys.
Nick Wright
I think I've been calling Dylan Harper. Derek Harper.
Bill Simmons
You did it once. Listen, listeners are used to old guy things like that. So it's fun. I have a really important question for you about this series.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
Who do you think OKC wants to play after they watch that first game?
Nick Wright
What a great question.
Bill Simmons
I was thinking about this all day and I don't even have an answer. But I think they would want to play Minnesota because San Antonio was such a weird matchup for them. But after watching that game I think I'd be afraid of the fuck you with the Minnesota team,
Nick Wright
man. It's going to feel. If Minnesota wins this series. It will feel a little team of destiny. Ish. And we assume Ant will be by the end of it in the best like the healthiest he's been that team. I would want nothing to do with.
Bill Simmons
How about the. How about the run of beating Joker and beating them to the point that Shams is on Sports center the next day going. They'll take calls on everyone on the team except Jokic. That's round one. Round two is we've. We've cut the legs out of this Wemby juggernaut that everybody was just assuming it was gonna be. Then round three you beat the back to back potential champs who've just won I think 140 games in two years or whatever it is. And then round four you beat the Knicks. That's about as good of a run as you're going to have.
Nick Wright
Certainly would be as good if it would be as. As good of a run to a finals as we've had in.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Since Dirk's Durkin 11 or Hakeem in 95. Hakeem in 95 is the all timer. The.
Nick Wright
Oh yeah. And they. Because they're.
Bill Simmons
That's my six seed.
Nick Wright
But this year is a six seed too.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And by the way it came in 95 also ended with the Knicks.
Bill Simmons
Well here's. Here's the other question. Well answer that one.95 ended with the magic.
Nick Wright
Sorry, go ahead.
Bill Simmons
So you. Who do you think they're rooting for?
Nick Wright
I think they. As crazy as it sounds because San Antonio owned them. I think they'd want. I think at this point they'd rather play San Antonio.
Bill Simmons
Who do you think the NBA is rooting for because I think you could make the case it's better for the NBA if Minnesota wins the series because Wemby's already going to happen. Wemby's inevitable.
Nick Wright
It makes sense.
Bill Simmons
But Minnesota elevates Ant.
Nick Wright
Yeah. And it gives. I think that is true and I think there is, there is a authenticity and charisma to anti that is just infectious.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And that is impossible not to be drawn to. And it is. I also feel like Minnesota winning it gives a lot of fan bases hope because Minnesota is not a like considered. They're just smartly put together. Like it's like they did get a
Bill Simmons
number one pick in the draft.
Nick Wright
Yes. Ant's a great, great player, don't get me wrong. But they don't look at him like an alien like Wimby.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
It's not like okc. It's like oh well, yeah, they have a billion picks and pulled off this heist. It's like, no, actually we had a smart gm. We just lost the most improved player in the league, left our team. We lost him and had to replace him in Nikhil Alexander Walker and we were fine. So I think that is, I think Minnesota winning it. I also again, as your audience, as I just told them, you know, I have a half a million dollar worth of equity in it. So I guess maybe I'm a little.
Bill Simmons
It's an awesome story. I could not believe. Sometimes I watch like you know, right away with a playoff series. Orlando, Detroit, it was just clear they were even. And you could watch game one and like oh shit, this is going to be a good series. Boston Philly, Game three was the game that worried me. And then Embiid came back and messed them up for a game. But game three, even though the Celtics win is like ah, they seem really comfortable against us. Like this is a bad, bad sign. And I think that game yesterday, I don't think it was a fluke. Castle fouling out. You could point to Fox was terrible. No, Carter, Bryant, those are three things they can fix. But I agree with you. I think Minnesota could absolutely win this series. And it gun to my head, I think I would pick them.
Nick Wright
Yeah, I listen, I. I think it is Minnesota was like +800. And then the Ant news came down and they were down to like plus 400. And then right before tip off was down to like plus three fifty.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And now right now I think they're like plus one. Sixty. And the only reason I don't think it is even is because it's already they started as such dogs. It hasn't totally fully overcorrected, but I,
Bill Simmons
I think plus one 76 right now.
Nick Wright
Okay. Plus one 76 so it's, I think
Bill Simmons
that's, that's fair considering they have three home games left. The guys come back, we got to take a break and we have two more big topics. All right, pretty good NBA playoffs so far in case you didn't know. All playoffs long. I'm looking at the slates sharing my favorite picks on Twitter. I almost hit everything last Friday and ended up Tatum gets hurt in the third quarter and doesn't hit his points rebounds over which he was very close on everything else hit. This is what happens. But this is also why same game parlays are so excited to do. I'm posting my picks on Twitter usually for the Wednesday games and then maybe Friday over the weekend. So I'll be looking at San Antonio, Minnesota putting some sort of pick. I really think Minnesota every game is a live underdog because they are absolutely convinced that they can beat San Antonio. So stay tuned for that pick. When I bet, I bet with FanDuel, a brand I trust. Easy to build your NBA bets on FanDuel. You know you're getting great odds, payouts on your parlays, many boost options, and you're going to get your winnings instantly. FanDuel play your game. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. With playoffs around the corner, now's a good time to create a tournament of your own. Compete to see who can predict the best playoff series or put your own basketball skills to the test. And the prize? A crisp Michelob Ultra Plus. They're giving fans a chance to win courtside tickets, prizes and more. Michelob Ultra Superior is worth playing for. Enter now at michelobulture.com courtside Michelob Ultra Courtside 2526 no purchase necessary. Open to US residents 21/plus begins on October 1, 2025 ends on June 30, 2026 multiple entry periods see official rules@mcglobaltra.com courtside for free entry, entry deadlines and prizes and details. This episode is brought to you by Firestone Complete Auto Care. There are a few things you don't want to overthink, like where you take your car when something feels off. Firestone Complete Auto Care is basically a one stop shop. Tires, oil changes, brakes, batteries, alignments, diagnostics, whatever's going on, there are thousands of ASE certified technicians have got it covered. Plus every visit comes with A courtesy inspection including free tire and battery checks. Visit firestoneauto.com to find a location near you. A trusted name since 1926. All right, I want to do lottery karma rankings with you, but you wanted to do LeBron and the Ringer 100 quick. So go ahead. You have the floor.
Nick Wright
Yeah, well, I don't know how quick you're gonna have to cut.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, make it kind of quick. I know where you're going with it.
Nick Wright
I. I just have a request to the founder, CEO and president of the Ringer to convene an emergency ranking session and be like, hey, real quick, everybody. I just want to do a status check. Do we still think all the old guys are better than LeBron? Cause all fucking year I've had to look at this and see, oh, Steph Curry's better than LeBron. That's cool. Kawhi. He's obviously better than LeBron. Kevin Durant, oh my God, he's clearly better than LeBron. James freaking Harden, better than LeBron. I'm looking at it and I don't know. I, I live in New York City. I saw Steph Curry yesterday at the Met Gala. Kevin Durant, I didn't see him, but I know what he's doing. Hanging out somewhere, ruining a locker room via Twitter. Yeah, Kawhi Leonard is winning your. Our buddy Pablo Pulitzer.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
James Harden's going 3 for 9 in the game seven. And LeBron's throwing goddamn alley oops to his son in the same game. He hit a series clinching three. And I gotta say, see, he's not a top 20 player in the league. Give me a break. Can LeBron please be the highest ranked old guy? Please?
Bill Simmons
Well, we do the list every month and it's a snapshot of where everybody is at that moment when we do the list. And I'm sure he'll be much higher when we do the list again. I think we need to add another list, though, which by the way, is always great content. But we have the Ringer 100 that's over here. So somebody like Embiid's not going to do well in the Ringer 100 because he plays 30 games a year. Like at some point you gotta durability has to become a huge part of the ranking. I think we should start a list of best guys. If I know I'm getting them 100% healthy for one playoff series. What's your list? And then LeBron, LeBron moves up really high on that list.
Nick Wright
I think I. By that metric, first of all, I I hear what you're saying about durability really matters. Not for the ringers. Favorite child, Steph Curry. He can miss 35 games. Nobody cares. Gotta be top 10. Ne. Not neither. Nor there.
Bill Simmons
Fair.
Nick Wright
If that were, if that were the list. What you said. Exactly. I think LeBron right now is still a top eight guy. What you said, fully healthy.
Bill Simmons
I think he's 14 to 15 range. But you could talk me into 10, 11, 12, just because how fucking smart he is.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
And like that Houston series. And I, I, I should have probably talked more about it on this pod, but Houston was so disgraceful with the whole everything.
Nick Wright
It was also brutal. It was. I was so mad about this. It was. The two critical moments in the series were Friday nights, which are terrible for
Bill Simmons
TV shows and pods. Yeah, you're right.
Nick Wright
Game three, the steal and game time. Three is a Friday night, and then the masterpiece in Game 6 is a Friday night. So it's just bad for content. But it was. I, I understand.
Bill Simmons
How many times have we seen him just do that to a team where it's just like Jordan would do it with like his prowess. LeBron kind of will do it with his prowess, but his brain and he just kind of unlocks the other team and you give him a team like that messed up Rockets team with no point guard and a weird coach and I'm not sure the chemistry was great. And it's like fucking red meat for LeBron.
Nick Wright
No. Yes. And that's why. And so that's why I like. Is Cade Cunningham Better than LeBron right now? Yeah, sure. Of course he's Cade Cunningham. His first team, all NBA, got it. But Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey, all these guys who are better than LeBron even. But I would say so could not have after a game and a half, just been like, oh, here are the fatal flaws of Houston. And now you can't win. And, And I am going to, I am in the. I'm going to be in such full control. I'm creating memes with little kids on the bench. I'm mortifying Shingoon in front of his teammates, saying, everyone else can complain about me flopping, but not you. All your teammates can, but not you. I'm doing all of this. And it is juxtaposed to one of his primary rivals of the era. The story around him being. Wait, he's on an underwater treadmill during game three.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, wait, this tough.
Nick Wright
The. The team. And I like Katie a lot, but oh, yeah, as it turns out, him, you know, him shit talking. His team actually bad for chemistry, and it did kind of hurt the locker room.
Bill Simmons
No.
Nick Wright
We learned.
Bill Simmons
We Learned on an ESPN.com feature today that the young guys in the team are used to criticism, so it didn't bother them as much as you'd think.
Nick Wright
In that same feature.
Bill Simmons
I hated him after I read that. And I'm playing basketball with him. I've been like, this guy, dude.
Nick Wright
Of course. But also, that feature was wild because that feature also said internally, the Rockets view Reed shepherd with Steve Nash upside. You know what Steve Nash could do early in his career? Dribble and pass. Like. Like even. And so I. So, yeah, I mean, I never got that off my chest.
Bill Simmons
I'm glad you did, too. And I do think we should have a. I know I'm getting 100% healthy for this playoff series list I think would be good. I don't know what number he'd be, but he'd be. I don't think I would have him as high as eight, but he'd be okay. Lottery Karma power rankings. Let's go. I first wrote this column in 2007, back when my fingers worked. I had more things on there. Basically, the concept is who should win the lottery. And we have four chances. They do the lottery for the first four picks. The big questions. I used to have more questions, but for karma. Number one, is your team overdue to win the lottery?
Nick Wright
Great.
Bill Simmons
So, like, Utah has never moved up. That's the team I would say is overdue. Indiana, I don't think has ever had the first pick. That would be another one. Has the team's big picture game plan made any sense? So Sacramento, for instance, paying the luxury tax for one of the worst teams in the league and not having a future, they would count as a not making sense.
Nick Wright
Like the Bulls. The Bulls. It's a not making.
Bill Simmons
Well, the Bulls actually make sense because they're like, we just. We just want to cheap out every year and our fans are going to pay for tickets.
Nick Wright
Yeah. I don't know if IO was that expensive. He probably could be 7 million a year.
Bill Simmons
It was too pricey. Got to cut that out.
Nick Wright
Had a playoff moment, but go ahead. Sorry.
Bill Simmons
This one's a big one. Did they handle last season with dignity?
Nick Wright
Oh, that's gonna be a tough one
Bill Simmons
for a tough one for a few of these. Number four. Did they ever make you say, why can people divorce their spouses, but they can't divorce their teams? If any of these teams that we have made one of their fans say, that to another fan. We have to measure that in the karma rankings. Then finally. Do you honestly believe the karma gods would feel bad for this team? Is our fifth one. That doesn't happen all the time. But I think Indiana would be a good case of. Oh man. They were in game seven in the finals and their best guy blew out his Achilles.
Nick Wright
So is. Is that the full list of rules? Cause I have a question.
Bill Simmons
Those are just five questions kind of thought starters to think about.
Nick Wright
Is there any factor of it would be catastrophic for the league if this team won it?
Bill Simmons
It's a good ad. I think I used to have it catastrophic in the oak. So you're talking OKC specifically.
Nick Wright
Yes.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, yeah.
Nick Wright
It normally would not apply.
Bill Simmons
So we have that covered. I'll give you the categories because we have that covered and I'll just give you my list and you can be my conciliary for the list.
Nick Wright
Love it.
Bill Simmons
First categories, no karma points whatsoever. So big goose egg. OKC is our first team. They're in the 12th spot right now. They have a 1.5 chance to win. There's also a scenario where OKC gets in the top four and Indiana gets stays in the top four. AKA the Clippers apocalypse where they would followed by some sort of ruling the next day. But yeah, OKCs had in the last 20 years, second, second, fourth and third. So they've had some lottery. I give them no karma points at all. They're really good. They're probably going to win the title again. They don't deserve to get a top four. Pick the other one I have in there and tell me if I'm right. And I say this with advanced apologies to the Maverick fans who loved Luka and did not want to trade him. They got Cooper flag last year and I think that was the makeup call for the horrible trade. Nico got fired. They just brought him Messiah you. Harry, things are okay. Kyrie's going to come back. I think they used up all their karma points last year with the flag thing, but I'm willing to accept other arguments.
Nick Wright
Nope, it's. I have no other arguments, but I think. I don't think they used up the karma points for the flag thing. I think they had karma points even after winning the flag.
Bill Simmons
So you think they have residue karma points?
Nick Wright
I think they did.
Bill Simmons
What happened?
Nick Wright
And then I think Nico Harrison said, and I quote, I hope people are seeing the vision now.
Bill Simmons
Oh, that. That extinguish the COVID plates. Okay.
Nick Wright
And then they were like, you gotta be kidding this guy fair. So no so I'm with you. They're out.
Bill Simmons
All right, so they have the eighth spot. They have a 6.7% chance to win. 45.2 for top four. No karma points for them, by the way. They're gonna. They'll get the seventh, eighth pick. They're gonna get a great guard. They'll. They'll get somebody really good. All right, next category is a small vial of karma points. Charlotte, who's in the 14th spot? 2.4% chance to move up, but they've picked. Khan was the third pick, Miller's second, and LaMelo's third. They don't really need another top four pick.
Nick Wright
Need another top four pick. You do give them credit, though, for
Bill Simmons
the dignity of the season. They. They really put together.
Nick Wright
Smart team and the.
Bill Simmons
Well, I mean, a smartly constructed roster.
Nick Wright
Yes. Trying to set me up.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And also the fact that those guys, if you redrafted, they made smart picks.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, they went three for three. You could argue Halliburton for Lamelo, but nobody would have taken Halliburton.
Nick Wright
Nobody would have taken that at the time. That's a. That's a different type of thing. So. Yeah, so they made the right pick. Pick in those. In those.
Bill Simmons
So they get a little karma for how well they've run the team the last couple years.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
Next one is Miami, who's in the 13th spot. They're not going to win anyway. They haven't picked higher than 10 since 2008. They did get the decision. And all this stuff with LeBron. I think they're still dining on the karma points from that. I had them at 0 karma points just in general, but bam. Scoring 83 points on the tanking Wizards. I think they won karma points for that, so I'm going to give them a little vibe.
Nick Wright
I was. I was so hoping you were going to go there. Yeah, that is correct.
Bill Simmons
They get points for that. So if they get in the top four, it'll be like, oh, it's because of the Bam. 83.
Nick Wright
It is because they said, oh, you're going to shamelessly tank, are you, Washington? Yeah, well, we are. We're going to scarlet letter you.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, we're.
Nick Wright
We're going to show you there's a penalty for trying to lose basketball games
Bill Simmons
and then unapologetic afterwards.
Nick Wright
Unapologetic. And the penalty is roughly. And again, this off the top of my head, the 374th best scorer in the history of the NBA is going to score 83 points on you.
Bill Simmons
Right.
Nick Wright
And you're just going to eat it.
Bill Simmons
So I'll give them a little karma for that.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
Memphis in the six spot, 9% to win 37.2 for top four. So Ja was the second pick and Triple J was also a top five pick. They also took Kevin Love five and Thabit two. From 95 to 2002, they picked 634-222-64. They've had 12 top six picks in the last 30 years. The Grizzlies franchise, 12 top six picks in the last thirty years. This is their second tear down, slash rebuild in seven, eight years. Sorry, Chris Vernon. It's true karma. Points for. Wasn't their fault JA flamed out. Everyone would have taken them second. And I don't know what they really could have what, what they really could have done differently. So they get points for that. They're one of five teams that have never made the Finals and recently LeBron crapped on their city. And I think they get points for all three of those things where if they won one of the top four picks, I don't think people would be that upset. So I'm going to give them a little vile.
Nick Wright
Can I give them a little extra?
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Okay. We can move them into the next category if you want.
Nick Wright
I would like to rep for Memphis for a month.
Bill Simmons
Let's hear it.
Nick Wright
So my sister in law lives in Memphis. I go there a lot. LeBron's comments really, really, like hurt the feelings of folks in that city in a way that I thought was a little too much, but it really bothered them. There is a. It's a very, yes, it is a very tough city, but it is a prideful city and they did everything they could to really support and love the Jaw Grizzlies. And through no fault of the, in my opinion, the organization and certainly the fans just screwed the whole thing up.
Bill Simmons
And so you will move them higher. Okay, you're selling me.
Nick Wright
I would like Memphis to have another shot at this. And so, yeah, I would like to.
Bill Simmons
All right, we'll move up. So we'll revisit a little bit later. So that list was just Charlotte and Miami. You know, the, the thing about the LeBron comments, it was like the. It was almost like a sucker punch. It was like somebody punched them from behind as they're just walking down the street and they just woke up the next day like, what happened? LeBron punched you in the back of the head. But what. Why did he do that? Like, there was no warning at all.
Nick Wright
And listen, as it turns out, because I then, you know, followed that Story probably. Probably closer than most. Man, NBA guys really do hate that hotel.
Bill Simmons
That's it. And it all comes down to the hotel. That's all that matters. Just build a four story Mandarin and you're good.
Nick Wright
It's just the hotel. He was trying to make people laugh. He should have just really focused his, his critique on just the hotel. It wouldn't have hurt his dad.
Bill Simmons
So, yeah, I, I didn't mind it because I think LeBron's one of his issues over the years. Like, I don't feel like we see the real LeBron in some of this stuff. Like authentic LeBron that I'm sure he's actually like versus what's presented to us. And I thought in that golf video, it's just, I think that's what he's like. So I was like, this is. I wish he did more of this. But then he ended up, you know, making an entire city feel terrible for a week. All right, next category. A soup cup of karma points. So Milwaukee is in the 10th spot. 3.0%. Top four would be 13.9. Ironically, they get the worst of their pick or Atlanta's pick or the Pelicans pick. That goes to Atlanta.
Nick Wright
Yes.
Bill Simmons
So I don't even know how to do the karma points here because if they go into the top four, Atlanta takes the pick anyway. I'll give them a little, though.
Nick Wright
They need ideally both of them to go in.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, they need both picks to go in.
Nick Wright
So. So they need both. So they. So they need a lot of help. Here's. Yeah, I, I'm fine with them not having a ton.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And here's why.
Bill Simmons
Let's see. Go.
Nick Wright
Everyone in the media has landed on Gez Giannis. Enough already. Ask for a trade. Move on. All the pressures on Giannis. When everyone, I think, acknowledges, yes, it's best for Giannis to move on. It's also best for Milwaukee to move on from Giannis. It's best for both parties. And there is it. So there should be just as much, if not more pressure on the party that actually has to execute the trade to be like, you know what, Giannis, we're going to move on from you. But they don't want to be a bad guy. And everyone's like, well, of course you don't want to trade Yanis. I'm demanding it. And Giannis is like, well, I don't want to be a bad guy either. So I just think, pardon me, the organization hasn't been great. Also, Jimmy Haslam bought, you know, bought into the team Karma's not coming his way anytime soon, so. Yeah, they don't need any extra.
Bill Simmons
Forgot about the Jimmy. So we could move them back then. That's fine.
Nick Wright
Yeah, put them where you had. Memphis.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, the. The Giannis walket thing was like the benevolent version of the Justin Baldoni Blake Lively lawsuit that finally got settled. Neither one wanted to admit that they were the one that wanted to settle it, which is basically where we are with the Bucks. Okay, next one is Sacramento.
Nick Wright
I was very curious where you were
Bill Simmons
going to have fifth spot. 11.5%. They had the fourth pick in 22. Murray. They had second and 18. Marvin Bagley one pick ahead of Luca
Nick Wright
Luca and then said, Luke is a big market guy.
Bill Simmons
Can't do Sacramento wasn't big enough market can't take him. Got to take a more loyal, worse player.
Nick Wright
One of the craziest takes I've ever heard.
Bill Simmons
He's like, how could Sacramento fans feel worse about this? How about this podcast interview from eight years later? Then Fox was the top five pick. So from 2009-18, they picked 457-578-6852. And I'm just tired of this team in this franchise, but the karma points, and this is why they're in the soup cup. Their fans this 20 year run for them. Just for the fans only. There has to be like a significant amount of karma points. And they've 20 years of just. Ugh.
Nick Wright
They've never had the number one pick, right?
Bill Simmons
Never had it. Oh, and no, they had it once. Never. Nervous Purvis.
Nick Wright
Oh, okay. So yeah, right. That was late 80s, 89. So they haven't had the number one pick in 35 years. They've certainly been bad enough to get it.
Bill Simmons
There's six teams that haven't had the pick. Denver, Miami, Utah, the Hornets, the Lakers, and the Pacers.
Nick Wright
The Lakers not having ever had the number one pick and having had nine number one picks on the team in their history is just bananas, right? Yeah, I'm fine with that for Sacramento.
Bill Simmons
Okay, now for a special part of today's episode where we unpack a six pack, or rather six of the biggest things happening on and off the court during playoff season. Brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. And a superior light beer. I had a couple of them last weekend and it really is superior. Let's get started. Here's my six pack. Six possible trade candidate fall guys for round two. As round two evolves here over the next two weeks, who not only might take some of the blame for a playoff loss, but also it would open the door for them to potentially be trade bait to improve a team. I'm going to rank from one to six for the six pack. Number one Jared Allen on Cleveland because if Cleveland cannot get by Detroit, that will mean they probably have to decide between Mobley and Jared Allen as they're quote unquote big. Maybe you could trade one of them to either change the change the team, get somebody like Giannis if you put Moby on the table, or just trade Jared Allen for somebody who's a little bit cheaper. But I think Cleveland would have to decide between those two guys because over and over again it would have been the same story with them. That's one. Number two, de' Aaron Fox, which Nick Wright and Ty talked about on the Tuesday pod. If he just cannot rise to the challenge against a Timberwolves team that has Zombie Mike Conley and Ayata Sun Moo who's battling injury, if he can't figure out a way to really impact that he would be a potential guy. Maybe they turn him into a shooter or somebody with more size. Number three Nas Reed I don't know if anybody on the nobody believes in us Timberwolves would even be on the trade block, but this would be the one guy you would maybe think about because for what he's making and doesn't play a ton of minutes and you have Go Bear and you have Randall and maybe you could flip him into more guard help or something else. But I'm not even sure I really believe in this one. Number four Evan Mobley for all the same reasons I mentioned with the Cavs. Number five Carl Towns on the New York Knickerbockers just because if they somehow blow this Sixer series, I assume there will be a fall guy in the Knicks and Yanis trade rumors and he's the logical person that would be in a trade. I actually like the way he's playing in the playoffs but had to mention him. And then number six I have Isaiah Stewart on the Pistons who reasonable salary, he's making like 15 really good advanced stats, could probably be the starting center for somebody and maybe you see that his usage gets yanked around on Detroit with Durance. Sometimes they get smaller. Maybe that's a piece they would want to put in a trade to get the much needed second score they have so Cade Cunningham doesn't have to shoot 35 times. Honorable mention Austin Reeves as a signing trade. Sad to throw him out there in case the Lakers decide. Maybe we do want to keep LeBron. Anyway, that's it for today's six pack. So now you can go grab your own six pack of Michelob Ultra Plus. Michelob Ultra is giving you a chance to win exclusive prizes including courtside tickets and more. Enter now at michelobultra.com courtside Michelob Ultra Superior is worth playing for Michelob Ultra Courtside 2526 no purchase necessary open to U.S. residence 21/ begins on October 1, 2025 ends on June 30, 2026 multiple entry periods. See official rules@michelob ultra.com courtside for free entry, entry deadlines and prizes and details.
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Bill Simmons
tremphyaradio.com this episode is brought to you by Panda Express. It's not always easy to show love, but there is one way to express how you feel.
Nick Wright
Food.
Bill Simmons
And what better way to say I love you than with Panda Express's delicious, authentically cooked American Chinese cuisine. Whether it's eating with someone you love or while watching the team you love, you can pick from tasty options like orange chicken, honey walnut shrimp, kung pao chicken and black pepper sirloin steak. Have you eaten yet? Order now or visit a Panda Express near you. Next one is Brooklyn. I didn't really know where to put Brooklyn. 14%. They're in the third spot. Top four 52.1. They've only had one top three pick really in the last 20 years. Derek favors number three. Karma points for building the 2024 Celtics inadvertently. Karma points for really trying to make a legitimate run with Cap Space and KD and Kyrie. They trade everything for harden and they get hosed I'm going to give them demerits for. I just think they're incredibly poorly run. I don't understand just about anything they do. And so I kind of put them here. I'm willing to be talked out of.
Nick Wright
That's a man, Sean Marks. He just needs a 13th or 14th year and he'll nail it.
Bill Simmons
This could be the year he might have figured it out. Father.
Nick Wright
So I. So I agree with you in that I do want to give credit for the fact that Brooklyn twice in the last 15 years has been like, we are going.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, we're going all in.
Nick Wright
We. We want to win the title.
Bill Simmons
We're brazenly going after the title.
Nick Wright
Right?
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And so I want to give them credit for that. I want to give them non credit for the fact that they had five first round picks last year and I don't know who any of them are. I live. I want to. I.
Bill Simmons
You're not a Nolan Trea guy.
Nick Wright
I want to give them non credit for the fact that the first year that they had Kyrie, Katie and Harden. Yeah, I got pretty good season tickets to the, to the Nets. And midway through the year they were a good team. And midway through the year, my wife said to me, next year, do you think it'd be better if we just spent the money on ten good Knicks games? And I was like, really?
Bill Simmons
I mean, you could say five, five good games, right?
Nick Wright
And shoot. And it was. And it's not like she's a, you know, a huge fan of anyone on the Knicks, anything like that. And she was like, it just feels so much more fun there. Like here nobody's really into it. They had Katie, Kyrie and Harden. They had no fans like they. And so.
Bill Simmons
Well, you know, even gets worse, the Liberty games are fucking awesome. In the exact same arena.
Nick Wright
Same arena my daughter and I went to when the Liberty game for the title. Yeah, it's electric. Yeah. So that does work against them. It would though they do have to get a superstar to have any chance of getting any type of attention there. So. Yeah, a little bit. I mean, they've gone for it. I just don't. I don't think.
Bill Simmons
All right, so I'm going to keep them in this category. Yeah, we'd all be better off if they just moved to Seattle and we didn't have expansion. Next category is a salad bowl of karma points. You might, you might disagree with this. I have Golden State here, 2.0%, 11 spot top four, 9.4%. They did have Wiseman as the second pick. Six years ago. And Kaminga number seven. Those are their last two really good picks. Last 15 years. This is just about now. This is where you get mad. Yeah. I don't want to see Steph just be on shit teams for the next three years of his career.
Nick Wright
I'm not going to get mad. I totally agree with that.
Bill Simmons
Let's get him one more good guy.
Nick Wright
So I, I'm Steph. So I don't know what the category is bigger than Salad Bowl.
Bill Simmons
There's two more categories. There's.
Nick Wright
Okay.
Bill Simmons
Oh no. This is. This is the second to last category.
Nick Wright
Okay. Steph. Individually, his karma deserves the biggest. What works against him and brings it to this just second tier is the team. No the team being so smug in that we've got one of the 12 greatest players of all time. He's still awesome. Let's try to win while also preparing for staff life.
Bill Simmons
It.
Nick Wright
It was the same shit. I'll never forgive. Never. The Cavs in 2018 when Kyrie wanted out and they could have had Paul George and the. The owner Dan Gilbert was like, well, no, we need a post LeBron life. And so we need a. A pick that turned into Colin Sexton and they got little Isaiah Thomas. That trade they did with Boston, that was.
Bill Simmons
That was your guy though, LeBron.
Nick Wright
What do you mean?
Bill Simmons
Because he was going to leave after the year and they're like, we'll do the trade if we know you're staying and he wouldn't come back.
Nick Wright
I understand. And guess what? Whether he was leaving or not, you know what you should try to do when you have peak LeBron James win the title that year. Instead they were like, no, we have to be okay after.
Bill Simmons
He could have waited one more year and then gone into Lakers in 2019. He could have done a two year window. He's been like, I'll sign a one year extension if you do this trade.
Nick Wright
Yeah, he could have done all those things or the Cavs could have just made the better. First of all, it would have been the better trade. Second of all, planning for a post of a future post. Your all time legendary players dumb. So I hated what the warriors did with Kurt to Curry like this. Not maximizing those young players for win now guys. So he deserves extra karma.
Bill Simmons
Okay.
Nick Wright
The organization deserves less. So leave it where it is. Also a little tiny douse of negative karma for Draymond having the audacity to be like, yeah, you know Steve Kerr held me back. What. What are you? Are you now that's also.
Bill Simmons
He only did that to get talk show segments out of it.
Nick Wright
Well, he got it.
Bill Simmons
He got. There was content all over the place.
Nick Wright
Favored Austin, Rivers and Draymond. They might, they might be meeting in Temecula soon. They're. They're going after it. But it was. But. So go ahead. So you're. I'm fine where they're at.
Bill Simmons
Next one Chicago. Top four for them is 20.3%. They're in the nine spots, so 4.5 to win it. They've picked fourth in 2020. They had a stretch from 99 to 0814-427-3291. They've been the cheapest big market team in any sport. If you think the three biggest markets are New York, Chicago and Los Angeles. Yes, they've been the cheapest of anybody other than the Sterling clippers. It's been 28 years since Michael Jordan retired. Their fans deserve better and all of those are reasons they should have karma points. Conversely, do the Reinsdorfs deserve a top four pick? Where do we put this?
Nick Wright
This is way too high for Chicago.
Bill Simmons
But can you blame the fans, though? So you would put them where Sacramento is?
Nick Wright
Basically, yeah.
Bill Simmons
All right, I'll move back.
Nick Wright
I don't, I don't blame the fans. But listen, Bulls fans, they're also Bears fans. You just got Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. You got, you got a hockey team. You got two baseball team.
Bill Simmons
That's their attitude. They've just moved to the Cubs and they've moved to the Bears and the Bulls. They just assume are going to go 42 and 40 every year. And that's the NBA team. They have.
Nick Wright
Yeah. And so the Ryan's doors.
Bill Simmons
All right, I moved it back. All right, so we have. Golden State moved Memphis into this category. Utah, thank you for that fourth spot. Utah. 11.5% top four, 45.2 last 15 years. They picked fifth last year. Fifth and 14. Took Dante Exum and Cantor in 2011. They have never moved up in the lottery ever. And they bastardized the sport to the point that they finally had to actually change the lottery rules and do this. Three, two, one thing I think they got karma points for that. They were the catalyst why. Yeah, they were the catalyst for changing the lottery in a good way.
Nick Wright
It took them before the All Star
Bill Simmons
break to do it.
Nick Wright
This is a little bit of you love Danny A. And want good things for him. I mean this is.
Bill Simmons
Dan deserted us and took our. Took our best assistant.
Nick Wright
All right, so maybe they. I mean, here is why they. The. The fans of the Jazz deserve. Do deserve good Lottery luck. The fact that the team that quite literally for all of NBA past, present and future, is going to have the hardest time signing free agents in perpetuity has never moved up in the lottery seems like a sick joke.
Bill Simmons
Although red hot right now.
Nick Wright
Oh, you know, I, I do believe it.
Bill Simmons
Baseball team. It's really cool to go there.
Nick Wright
I believe. You know, there are reality shows. Wyoming is sick. Is super hot right now too. You know, where you know what demographic it's not super hot around. NBA players, NBA free agents, 27 year old NBA superstars. Not very often being like, hey, guess where I just got a spread? Salt Lake. And so I, they need some luck there.
Bill Simmons
Okay. All right. So keep as is. So Golden State, Memphis, Utah. In this category I have Atlanta via the New Orleans pick. So they had a good season. They did win the lottery two years ago. So they lose points for that top four, 29.3% chance to move up, 6.8 for the seventh spot. And the case for them for karma points. They built a really fun team. They did a good job for the most part. They have fun nucleus. It would be fun if they got one of these guys. And I think this is around the right area for them.
Nick Wright
So when you first told me we were doing this, my gut was, I was going to say Atlanta should be number one.
Bill Simmons
Oh, well, let me give you the other two teams then.
Nick Wright
Well, no, but I'm going to. But I no longer. I think you have it right. I know because. So my gut was it was such a savvy trade with Joe Dumars in New Orleans just to get this pick. Them having the guts to finally move off Trey Young, the fact that they, you know, CJ had this moment, all that worked for him. And then what kept sticking in my head was, yeah, but they took Zachary Resache number one overall. So they probably third is a good spot. So we have two teams left, two
Bill Simmons
karma teams left, two karma teams. One is in the same category. The Washington wizards. All right, first spot, Joe House. 11.5% to win. No, that's not right. They're in the first spot. 14% chance to win. Yes, 52.1 for top four. They picked Sar two years ago. Number two, they got the sixth pick last year with Johnson. They've had 12 top six picks in the last 35 years since they made the 1979 finals. Since they have five playoff series wins in 47 years and they've never made the conference finals. And their fans are in about as dark of a place as it gets. And they're probably upset that they couldn't even win this. So I have them second and Anthony
Nick Wright
Davis is talking as if he's never going to play a game for him.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, he's like, he's on Redfin in every NBA city looking at houses. They have a pool. Is there an eight bedroom place in
Nick Wright
Portland figuring out where he's going to be. They're also about to have the Trae Young experience, which I don't think is enjoyable.
Bill Simmons
Can I tell you something about Trey Young? I think we've all blocked it out of our mind. I was just looking this up randomly the other day because I was looking at Yana stuff. The Hawks won two games in the 2021 conference finals.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
That series was 4, 2. Now Yanis missed a couple of them, but if you go back and look at the box scores, they look like two eight seeds compared to now.
Nick Wright
It was. But it was two. Giannis got hurt in game four.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
So it was, it was two. Two with Giannis out for the rest of the series. Atlanta, it was going to be, you know, Chris Paul was going to be a champion is what was going to happen if Atlanta wins that series. Yeah, it was two. Two in the conference finals. It's remarkable.
Bill Simmons
I think the 20, 20 and 21 seasons, 50 years from now, people are going to be in Basketball reference. Like, wait, what, what's going on here?
Nick Wright
Yeah, I mean, 20, I think, I think people will probably remember 20 is probably the final title for the greatest player of all time. It's neither here nor there. Atlanta. What's working against Atlanta is. Or, I'm sorry, what's working.
Bill Simmons
It's Washington.
Nick Wright
Pardon me. The,
Bill Simmons
the shamelessness, the embarrassment of being scarlet lettered by Bam.
Nick Wright
I mean, they have. Well, they have just been. But their fans don't deserve. It's not on their fans. All right. I'm fine with them being there. I. They're, they're.
Bill Simmons
Would you put Atlanta over them?
Nick Wright
Yes.
Bill Simmons
Okay.
Nick Wright
I would put a land in the second spot.
Bill Simmons
Okay.
Nick Wright
And I love who you have number one.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. So this is the last category. A swimming pool of karma points. Indiana, 14%. They're in the two spot top four. 52.1. An amazing wrinkle where they only keep the pick if it's top four. They could drop to five or six. Otherwise it goes to the Clippers. Little similar to. I don't know if you watch Survivor, but Devin's flipping the coin to basically try to stay in the game is kind of what they did with that pick. They, they flip the coin and if it comes up heads their way and they get a top four pick and they get Zubots and they get Tyrese Halliburton coming back like they're. They're probably going to be like the number two favorite in the east.
Nick Wright
Well yeah. And they. If there is ever an acceptable reason to throw a season away, it was them. It's like hey we, they. We made a finals the year before that they made the conference finals the year before they made the finals.
Bill Simmons
We made the finals and our best guy risked everything to play in game seven. Took a chance and the worst possible outcome happened and ruined our next season.
Nick Wright
Ruined our next season. And so we snap recalibrated. We're not. We didn't tear it down. We just took a gap year.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
And we also also didn't they. They had their pick only because of a trade they made during the finals. During the finals to get their pick back. So they had. They did that with like a little. Maybe a little premonition of what was to come.
Bill Simmons
That came across conspiracy bills desk last summer. What why did they make that trade during the finals? Was it like Halliburton protection? Like getting protection in blackjack or something?
Nick Wright
It's. It was, it's crazy how it happened. It was days before the guy gets hurt.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
They're well run. They have a plan and is. It's not quite the O3 lottery where Jerry west is sitting there. I either get LeBron James or the all time.
Bill Simmons
The all time. Either or. Although now now we know LeBron would have been out of there in 07.
Nick Wright
Maybe they know. Can I tell you something? Not only would LeBron not have been out of there, they would have a 30 foot, a 30 story seven star hotel.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Nick Wright
With what that's downtown would have been if LeBron was there.
Bill Simmons
The, the Memphis montage.
Nick Wright
Indiana being like all right, they're going to be watching the lottery just knowing if three teams move up we're.
Bill Simmons
If they come up five or six, it's over. And then if you're so the best thing they have going for them is the Clippers would benefit from this. Which would. I don't know if the league would be doing backflips that the Clippers got the fifth pick in the draft. So and then could if let's say a ruling came down, they decided the Clippers did all this stuff. Could they then just say you don't get the fifth pick. That's going to be part of the penalty.
Nick Wright
I don't know but so I think Indiana, I. Indiana, I don't. They don't have to get the number one pick, but they've got to stay in the top four. So I like them. I like them being number one on this.
Bill Simmons
I think it's a good one. So I'll recap no from no karma points to a swimming pool of karma points.
Nick Wright
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
Okc, Dallas, Charlotte, Miami, Milwaukee, Sacramento, Chicago, Brooklyn, Golden State, Memphis, Utah, Washington, Atlanta, Indiana having the most karma points. That's a good list.
Nick Wright
It's a good list.
Bill Simmons
Congratulations, Indiana.
Nick Wright
Yeah, Congratulations, Indiana. Good luck, Atlanta, Memphis. I hope this made Chris, Vernon and everyone happy that there was, you know, some somebody repping for Memphis.
Bill Simmons
What does Conspiracy Nick think would be the fishiest outcome? Last year we hit the fishiest outcome when Cooper Flag went to the Dallas Mavericks. I think it's Golden State. Getting a top four pick would be the one that would make me go, oh, yeah. If I was running the league, that's what I would have done.
Nick Wright
All right, so let Golden State. Golden State certainly is the one that's best for the league. Yeah, there's no doubt about that.
Bill Simmons
Like them just getting debance. The who could play right away for them.
Nick Wright
What about. What about this one? And I don't know. Again, I don't know if they would do it, but maybe they would. What about Brooklyn getting a top four pick and using that as a trade for Giannis, like that is.
Bill Simmons
Well, here's the thing with Brooklyn. They don't have their pick next year because Houston can swap it.
Nick Wright
Oh, yeah.
Bill Simmons
It's part of that weird deal they made. So they actually have to be good next year. So, yeah, Brooklyn would be another one. I'm not sure they're anxious to help out Brooklyn.
Nick Wright
No, that's probably true.
Bill Simmons
Dallas could be the other one. It's like, hey, you owe us for the rest of the Luca trade. We know you promised us one lottery, but it was actually two. Two lotteries to send Luca to Los Angeles.
Nick Wright
Just so you know, I just clicked sim lottery on Tankathon and the result was Milwaukee moved up to one. So that goes to Atlanta.
Bill Simmons
Wow.
Nick Wright
And the Clippers moved up to two, and that goes to okc. That would not be great.
Bill Simmons
That's what just came up in.
Nick Wright
In the one that I just did. Oh, my Milwaukee to. It goes to Atlanta is 1. The Clippers, which goes to OKC at 2. Washington, 3. Utah, 4. Poor Indiana drops to 5, and it goes to the Clippers.
Bill Simmons
Oh, then gamut of emotions for the Clippers.
Nick Wright
Gamut of emotions.
Bill Simmons
Okc. Moving into the top four of this lottery would enrage people.
Nick Wright
I. It would be a catastrophe.
Bill Simmons
I was on the air when Cleveland won the 2014 lottery, and I kind of melted down for like a minute.
Nick Wright
Yeah, I remember. I remember.
Bill Simmons
I was like, you gotta be kidding me. This is the third time in four years that they won the lottery.
Nick Wright
Real quick, is it weird to you that it's on a Sunday?
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I hate it. I hate it.
Nick Wright
It's supposed to be Tuesday night or Wednesday night, right?
Bill Simmons
Well, they're gonna have. So it's a 1230 game lottery after the or 1230 Pacific, 330 Eastern game lottery and then the next game.
Nick Wright
I don't like that at all.
Bill Simmons
I don't like that at all. I liked when it was the middle of the week and we could get content out of it, but yeah. All right, Nick, Ray, I took enough of your time. This was a true pleasure. Thanks for doing the karma rankings. Thanks for talking basketball with me. It was great to see you, as always.
Nick Wright
Oh, you know what? You as well. I'll tell Kevin Wilds. How about this? I'll tell Kevin Wilds, you say hello, and you tell Joe House, who I've never met, but in my head, we're friends. I say hello.
Bill Simmons
All right, we'll do that.
Nick Wright
All right.
Bill Simmons
Great to see you. Thank you.
Nick Wright
Yep. Bye.
Bill Simmons
All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Nick Wright. Thanks to Gehao and Eduardo as well. Don't forget about the new rewatchables we put up. There's something about Mary. Don't forget about Legata. Finally ended the conclusion. The last seventh episode of the series is up and you can rip through all of them now. I'm going to be back on Thursday with one more podcast.
Nick Wright
Wait,
Bill Simmons
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Date: May 6, 2026
Host: Bill Simmons
Guest: Nick Wright
This jam-packed episode features Bill Simmons and Nick Wright diving deep into:
Throughout, Simmons and Wright lean into their decades of NBA obsession, mixing stats, wit, and personal pain (particularly for long-suffering Celtics fans). The tone is irreverent, honest, and sometimes borderline therapy.
Main theme: The Celtics' playoff disaster, Jaylen Brown’s happiness, and looming trade decisions
Key Discussion Points
Bill and Nick start by bemoaning Boston’s Game 7 collapse and their inability to adjust despite injuries—especially after four years under Coach Joe Mazzulla (03:52-06:57):
Jaylen Brown’s future heavily scrutinized ([06:58-08:29]):
Jaylen’s controversial Twitch stream:
The delicate “break up” question: Nick and Bill both see a breakup as increasingly likely and sensible for all parties.
Key Quotes & Moments
The guys question Boston’s reliance on three-point variance:
On Giannis’ value for Boston:
Trade pricing everywhere feels “softer” than last year:
Vegas Story & “Destiny” Energy
([32:45-38:35])
Nick tells how he and friends bet $10,000 (at 200:1 odds!) on the Timberwolves to win the title after seeing shockingly low odds in Vegas—ticket now worth $65k after one win.
The Wolves as the NBA’s new “Fuck You Team”:
([43:53-49:47])
([45:08–48:13])
([62:10-64:41])
The duo’s annual ritual: ranking which NBA teams “deserve” lottery karma, via a blend of history, organizational nobility, and fan suffering.
Funniest addition: Should it be “catastrophic for the league” if you won? (Such as OKC getting richer)
A classic Bill Simmons episode mixing searing playoff pain, surprisingly plausible trade machine fantasies, playoff psychology, and down-to-the-sad-bedrock franchise history—all with Nick Wright’s relentless energy and comedic jabs. Must-listen for NBA sickos, especially those bracing for the chaos of lottery night or pondering if their team will ever get some damn karma.
End of Summary