The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West
Guests: Bill Simmons (Host), Joe House, Zach Lowe
Date: October 15, 2025
Topic: Western Conference NBA Team Over/Under Win Totals for 2025-26
Episode Overview
In the annual NBA Over/Unders pod, Bill Simmons, Zach Lowe, and Joe House break down each Western Conference team’s season win total betting line, debating whether to go over or under. The trio dives deep into team construction, key signings and trades, health questions, coaching changes, star legacies, and make plenty of jokes along the way. Notably, this is the first-ever Over/Unders collaboration between House and Lowe, and the crew repeatedly comments on parity, the depth of the West, and how hard it is to choose so many overs.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (Line: 62.5 wins)
[06:01–13:41]
- Background: Defending champs, coming off a 68-win season, deep young roster, SGA an MVP and Finals MVP, depth and defense admired.
- Zach Lowe: Aggressively over. “I think 70 wins is in play if they’re healthy.” [10:01]
- Bill Simmons: Makes Bulls 1992 comparison, highlights how the team’s youth, ascending stars (Jalen Williams, Chet), and flexible assets could yield a historic result.
- Joe House: Initially hesitant, swayed by the numbers. Ends up over, “63 is still over. It was five games worse than last year.” [11:10]
- SGA ‘Untradable’ status: Simmons: “He’s like independent movie Kobe. Basically, he’s Kobe, but it’s a lower budget with the director who did for scale…” [12:48]
- Betting Angles: 70 wins at +680 odds.
Timestamps:
- Assessment & SGA talk: 06:01–13:41
2. Denver Nuggets (Line: 53.5 wins)
[13:41–29:32]
- Background: Reigning elite regular season team, added Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown returns, best bench ever for Jokic, Malone out, David Adelman in.
- Bench Upgrades: Simmons: “This is the deepest bench they’ve ever had... best Nuggets team Jokic has had.” [14:27]
- Concerns: Zach points to history of Nuggets ‘just good’ regular seasons (net history: 46–57 wins last six years), injuries (Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson), veteran reliability.
- Legacy Discussion: If Jokic wins another MVP/title, “I think he’s indisputably one of the best 10 players ever.” [25:19]
- Picks:
- Simmons: Over
- House: Over, “It’s a lock. Put it in my book right now.” [28:35]
- Lowe: Under (they’re a playoff juggernaut, but 53.5 is high for their track record).
- Quote:
- Lowe: “Regular season, they’re not like blowing you away.” [20:54]
- First Team to Target in Season Ticket Drafts: Denver and San Antonio (for Wemby).
Timestamps:
- Nuggets deep dive: 13:41–29:32
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (Line: 49.5 wins)
[31:02–35:19]
- Respect Gap: Despite 49 wins and top-5 net rating, books have them flat; Disrespect for a team with a top-10 player (Edwards).
- Roster Talk: Departed Alexander-Walker hurts, but deep youth, Ant is ascending. Last 30 games: 20-10 record; were healthy last year.
- All three: Aggressively over.
- Quote: Lowe: “I am going aggressively, enthusiastically over.” [34:31]
Timestamps:
- 31:02–35:19
4. Portland Trail Blazers (Line: 34.5 wins)
[40:25–45:11]
- Optimism vs. Reality: Portland finished strong last year, added Jon Hansen (rookie fan favorite), but Scoot’s hamstring injury likely out 1–2 months.
- Offense a Concern: Lowe: “Their offense is going to be putrid. Like there’s just no shooting.”
- Result: Unanimous under.
- Quotes:
- Simmons: “No Simons. The Simons is intriguing.” (notes Simons’ late-game creation is gone) [43:57]
Timestamps:
- 40:25–45:11
5. Utah Jazz (Line: 19.5 wins)
[47:33–54:24]
- Rebuild Mode: Lost key veterans; only chance is Markkanen and Nurkic health. Most vets likely trade candidates, key youth is unproven.
- Enthusiasm for Ace Bailey (rookie): “Ace Bailey Island is overcrowded!” [52:04]
- Team-building philosophy: Another Brett Brown “process” type situation for Will Hardy.
- Result: All three under.
- Quote: Lowe: “I’m going under. Which is shocking considering 19.5 is like an embarrassingly low number.” [51:23]
Timestamps:
- 47:33–54:24
6. Houston Rockets (Line: 52.5 wins)
[56:11–64:24]
- Big Additions & Subtractions: Added KD, Capela, Finney-Smith; lost VanVleet for much of the season (injury), Brooks, Jalen Green.
- Question: Who’s the point guard? Can Thompson make the leap?
- Defense-based optimism; uncertainty at PG tempers expectations.
- Result: All three under.
- Legacy Button for Durant: “If [KD] takes Houston to the Finals as their best guy, that’s… an unbelievable new wrinkle to this.” [62:03]
7. San Antonio Spurs (Line: 43.5 wins)
[64:24–73:08]
- Transformative Wemby: Multiple references to legendary bigs in “Year Three” and what Wemby could be.
- Supporting Cast: “Harper’s going to be good right away... there’s something with him and Wemby.” [70:12]
- House’s Concerns: “I don’t feel like we’re completely in the clear with injury uncertainty... This is a function of how competitive the West is.”
- Result: Simmons & Lowe over, House under. Simmons locks over, “I’m not just a hard over, I’m a fully erect over.” [72:53]
8. Dallas Mavericks (Line: 40.5 wins)
[75:00–81:48]
- New Era: No Kyrie (for most of season), added D’Angelo Russell, Cooper Flagg (rookie, “most impactful American rookie since Anthony Davis”) [75:00], Gafford, etc.
- Question: “If Anthony Davis plays 65 games,” could be easy over, but health risk is huge. Debate over whether they’ll tank if season goes south (have own pick for once).
- Debate: Simmons & House over (Simmons: “I already bet on this”), Lowe under.
9. Memphis Grizzlies (Line: 39.5 wins)
[83:28–88:54]
- Injury Plague: “It’s not great when all your centers are hurt except for Jock Landale.” [84:00]; Ja Morant and Triple J health are key.
- Vegas has nailed the number. Lowe sets “Ja+Triple J” games together at 55.5; House says take the (slight) over anyway based on home toughness.
- Result: House & Lowe over, Simmons under.
10. New Orleans Pelicans (Line: 30.5 wins)
[92:41–99:21]
- Lost pick to Atlanta, motivation to try. Rotation: Poole, Looney, Sadiq Bey, rookie Queen, etc. Skinny Zion not moving the needle.
- Coaching/FO tension: “If they, the more they play, rookies tend to not help you win games.” [94:55]
- Result: Unanimous over.
- Best quote: Simmons on Poole: “You just really have to tell that dude, here’s the role. Don’t let him think that he’s in charge of anything, that there’s no big three.” [97:40]
11. LA Clippers (Line: 49.5 wins)
[100:39–107:20]
- Most loaded vet team, new faces (Beal, CP3, Collins, Lopez), deep roster, ongoing off-court issues.
- Legacy overload: Harden, Kawhi, CP3 and Beal could boost their legacies with a title.
- Harden’s value: “The dude is a regular season wins machine who plays all the time. Which is the best possible insurance for whatever happens with Kawhi.” [102:47]
- All pick over.
- Quote: “A lot would have to go wrong for this to go under.” [106:50]
12. LA Lakers (Line: 47.5 wins)
[107:27–116:24]
- Aging Stars: LeBron’s health in question (“sciatica is not like, oh, it gets fixed… not when you’re 41.” – House [110:51]), ownership/roster in flux, cap-space narrative.
- Team Identity Issues: Three best guys all defensive liabilities; urgency and direction seem lacking.
- Result: Simmons & House under, Lowe over.
- Quote: Simmons: “I just think they have so many variables — I don’t think they care about this year.” [115:40]
13. Golden State Warriors (Line: 47.5 wins)
[116:46–125:40]
- Roster Shake-up: Lost Looney, added Horford (big impact role), Butler, Kaminga’s days likely numbered.
- Run It Back? Team was excellent last 30 games. “When Curry goes to the bench, we actually have like a reliable thing we can do.” [121:20]
- All three over: Lowe and Simmons lock it.
- Old age is only concern.
14. Sacramento Kings (Line: 35.5 wins)
[126:11–132:13]
- From Beam Team to Shambles: Lost seamlessness, additions (“reassembling 2023 Bulls with Sabonis”) widely derided, Keegan Murray out to start.
- Quote: Lowe: “I don’t know who’s playing defense on this team. Why are DeRozan and Levine still on the same team?” [128:17]
- All three hard under.
- Lowe: “This is the Hindenburg of NBA teams.” [131:05]
15. Phoenix Suns (Line: 31.5 wins)
[132:36–139:21]
- KD/Beal Exit Fallout: Booker and Jalen Green share backcourt, traded Mark Williams in, plus a pile of role players.
- Some Optimism: House goes over (“team with something to prove”), but Lowe and Simmons under.
- Lowe: “I'm under because in this conference I just have too many questions about the roster.” [136:03]
- Historical Note: Recap of how quickly a 64-win core morphed into this.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Lowe on OKC: "I just think they’re so good and so deep and their defense is so much better than everybody else's…70 wins is in play." [10:07]
- Simmons on SGA: "He’s like independent movie Kobe. Basically, he’s Kobe, but it’s a lower budget…" [12:48]
- House on Denver: "I absolutely adore them…This is the best Nuggets cast at this moment." [16:47]
- Lowe on Minnesota: "Aggressively, enthusiastically over." [34:31]
- Simmons on Portland: “They might have a chance to be 2026's hipster NBA team.” [43:10]
- Lowe on Utah: "I’m going under...an embarrassingly low number." [51:23]
- Simmons on the Kings: "This is the single dumbest NBA roster. They have no salary cap space. They have no young studs. They have no under-25 player... There’s no point for this team.” [130:02]
- Lowe on Sac: “This is the Hindenburg of NBA teams.” [131:05]
Over/Under Picks at a Glance
| Team | Line | Simmons | House | Lowe | Locked by | | ---- | ---- | ------- | ----- | ---- | --------- | | OKC | 62.5 | Over | Over | Over | Lowe, Simmons | | DEN | 53.5 | Over | Over | Under | House, Simmons | | MIN | 49.5 | Over | Over | Over | Lowe, House | | POR | 34.5 | Under | Under | Under | - | | UTA | 19.5 | Under | Under | Under | - | | HOU | 52.5 | Under | Under | Under | Lowe, House | | SAS | 43.5 | Over | Under | Over | Simmons | | DAL | 40.5 | Over | Over | Under | Simmons | | MEM | 39.5 | Under | Over | Over | - | | NOP | 30.5 | Over | Over | Over | - | | LAC | 49.5 | Over | Over | Over | House | | LAL | 47.5 | Under | Under | Over | - | | GSW | 47.5 | Over | Over | Over | Simmons, Lowe | | SAC | 35.5 | Under | Under | Under | Simmons, Lowe | | PHX | 31.5 | Under | Over | Under | - |
Overarching Episode Themes
- Uncertainty and Parity: Deep Western Conference means lots of teams can top 45 wins, few true tankers, and picking unders is excruciating.
- Legacy Watch: Jokic, KD, Kawhi, Harden, Paul, Beal all have crucial legacy seasons at stake.
- Doomsday for Some: The Kings, Suns, and Jazz picked as the surest bets to be disasters.
- Methodology Debated: Much debate over injuries, closing lineups, improved benches, coach changes, and win-health regression.