← The Bill Simmons Podcast
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- [00:00]
A
This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. Thursday Night Football is on and it's only on Prime. This week, the AFC north takes center stage as the Pittsburgh Steelers battle the Cincinnati Bengals. The AFC north, it's been flipping left and right every week. Nobody knows who's in charge of this division. Every game is important. It might only be nine wins to win this division, so every game matters. Everybody's in it. Coverage begins at 7pm Eastern with football's best party, the TNF. Tonight presented by Verizon. Not a Prime member, Not a problem. Simply sign up for a 30 day free trial. It's the Steelers and Bengals Thursday at 7pm Eastern only on Prime Video. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com amazonprime for details. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. You know the NBA season's almost here when that anticipation kicks in. What trades work, what rookies pop, which teams flame out by Christmas. I think for non Celtic stuff, the team I'm probably looking forward to seeing the most is the Denver Nuggets. As you know, I'm a Giant Jokic fan. I thought the supporting cast was below average for him last year and they made a bunch of big moves. I'm really excited to see Cam Johnson on that team. I'm excited to see him with a better bench. Bruce Brown is back and I'm excited to just have a good Nuggets team back in my life along with a lot of other storylines, really deep leagues this season. Whatever happens when I'm watching all that unfold, especially with Nuggets, I'm doing it with the Michelob Ultra in hand. Superior light beer just 95 calories. There are lots of moments worth playing for, but the ones that taste the best are served cold. Order Michelob Ultra. Fill up your fridge as we gear up for NBA season. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2025 Anheuser Busch Michelob Ultra Light Beer St. Louis, Missouri the Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network where we put up a new episode of the Rewatchables. On Monday night. We did Sneakers as part of Robert Redford Month. We have one more Redford movie coming next week. We're gonna do a quiz show and then and I think we have to do a horror movie for the last week of October. So I think one more Redford Month movie and then a horror movie prestige TV podcast task at episode six. That is up now with me and Joanna Robinson Breaking it Down the season finale is on Sunday. We have a little announcement with the Ringer. We are going to be in January moving some of our podcasts. They're still going to be on Spotify. They're still going to be on all platforms. There's still going to be a video podcast on Spotify, but we are also going to be moving the video to Netflix as part of their Experiment initiative with video podcasts. So very excited about that. This podcast will eventually be able to be watched on Netflix as well, as well as the rewatchables and a bunch of other ringer stuff. And it's we announced the first wave. Hopefully there's more to come and we're very excited to team up with that. There's going to be some big upgrades all the way around. From a production standpoint, you've already seen some of them. So very excited about that. Very excited for this Over Unders podcast we're about to do. We've done this every year. I think it's year 16. Joe House has been a staple since we've done it. Zach Lowe is going to join us this year. This is part one. Doing the west, we guess the Over Unders. They do win totals. FanDuel has them any any place where you bet. But we love FanDuel win totals for the season for each team and we go over or we go under and we talk about every team and we have some laughs, we have some fun. And it's about to happen. We're going to take a break, Pearl Jam and then the West Over Unders is next. This is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on, FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in. Live your way so you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts. Recently. Guess what I did use? Fando Super Fun. Download the FanDuel app or go to Fando.com BS to get started. Must be 21 + President select states 18 + in D.C. kentucky and Wyoming Gamma call win 100 Gambler, visit rg-help.com call 888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org chat in.
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Conn.
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A
All right, the time is here. NBA over Unders Joe House is here. We first did this on the BS report on ESPN in 2010.
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B
Wow.
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A
Yeah, I looked at it. Yeah. Somebody on YouTube has all the old BS report podcasts. 2010. So that would make it. I'm bad at math.
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B
15.
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A
This is our fifth.
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C
If we're inclusive. It's 16.
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A
So it's our 16.
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B
This is why we have Zach Lowe.
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A
Zach Lowe is here. Never has been on the over unders pod in fact. And Joe Hass have never done a podcast.
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C
This is it.
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B
Is that true?
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C
We're doing it.
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B
Amazing. I have one. One goal. I told Zach already. I want him to say something bad about somebody. That's my goal for this podcast. To get Zach low to say something bad about somebody.
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A
I know Zach looks tan, rested.
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C
I don't know. But yeah.
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B
Ready?
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C
I'm ready to go. I'm excited.
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A
I dare I say one of the most fun over under seasons we've ever had. There's so much flux. There's so many teams. You could make a case for either way just being either way better than people think or way worse. And yet we're going to start with the West. This is part one. And we're going to start with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Who won the title last year. Zach. And are somehow not that exciting to talk about. I just think they're going to be awesome again. And I don't really have a lot of Thunder takes. Like why wouldn't they be awesome again? What would be the case against it?
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C
Well, they're going to be awesome. There's no question about that. They have some injuries. Jalen Williams. How quickly is he going to be ready to start the season? Good. Jalen Williams Topich had some kind of surgery. Kenrich Williams.
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A
It wasn't some kind of surgery there.
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C
I don't want to get into the research.
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A
Did you research the testicular topic surgery?
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B
I did not. I felt like it was.
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C
I did not either. It was. I just saw the timetable. But it. There's no question they're going to be awesome. They're the favorites to win the title. The question is 62 and a half. It's a pretty giant number.
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A
62 and a half wins house. Minus 340 for the division, plus 130 for the conference and plus 210 for the title. Minus 210 for the one seed on FanDuel if you're interested in that one. House. Only 11 teams I think in the. In the last 30 years or something have been over 60 wins for an over under and I think it's eight and three where it's been under most recently was the warriors of 2019. We were dumbfounded by this last night. Over under 67 and a half for them. That was the year Durant got hurt. But did you think this was too high?
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B
It's just a tad too high. And it's just because of the math aspect of it. It's what you just described. It's what we know, what history tells us about teams that come in having won the title. Every team in the league circles that game like, hey, Oklahoma, Homeless City's in town. Let's give a good effort here. Let's see how we match up against the champs. And so it's. I don't feel like it's disrespectful to say that they win 61 or 62 games. It's still an awesome season. They're still an awesome team. They should be the one seed. They should be. They should win the conference. But I am not going to bite down too hard on this one.
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A
They would have to go six wins worse to go under because they were 68 and 14 last year. They had a plus 12, 7.7 or plus 12.7 net last year, so best.
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C
In the history of the NBA.
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A
I don't know why that would be considerably worse. I just don't see how. They're not a mid-60s team unless there's some sort of major injury. But we could say that about any good team.
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C
Their expected wins last year were 69, according to cleaning the Glass. So you have to do the thing where it's like, how many did you win? Were you lucky? Were you unlucky? They're like flat out basically a 70 win team.
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A
We'll be talking about that during the Detroit section in part two.
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C
Wow. Just flashing all the way ahead to you.
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A
Wow. Just, you know, 46 wins. But was it.
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C
Is this the part where I say what I think is going to happen? Like, I don't. You have the cadence for this over under thing. You know, you're going under. It sounds like.
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A
Let me set you up. Okay. In 2002, they won 24. In 2023, they won 40. In 2024, 57. And in 2025, 68. So if you do the math, they're going to win 77 games this year by those. So 77 and five is how it's going.
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C
Uh, I'm going over.
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A
What are you doing?
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C
I'm going aggressively over.
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B
Oh, wow.
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A
Aggressively over. I. I didn't even know that was an option. I just thought we were doing over aggressively over.
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C
I just think they're so good and so deep and their defense is so much better than everybody else's that they just like, how many games are they going to be underdogs in the entire year, like, on the road against Denver?
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A
Well, the other thing is they can sit dudes, and it doesn't matter. It's like, oh, we'll just put this guy in instead. It'll be fine.
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C
And they seem like the kind of team. First of all, they won 68 with Chet missing half the season, Hartenstein missing almost half the season. Maybe they suffer some other injuries this year. I just think they walk into every game with a defense. It's like, we can play a shitty offensive game and still win and the floor is so high. And they do strike me as a team that is going to like what you said. Like, oh, you. You're going to give us your best shot.
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A
Come at us.
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C
We're young. We're not this, like, old, creaky champion. Actually. We kind of like being the hunted. We like kicking the shit out of everybody on defense.
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B
Yep.
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C
We want history. Like, I think It's. I think 70 wins is in play if they're healthy.
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A
So the case for this house would be the 1992 Bulls, who went 67 and 15 the year after they won the title, were young. Like, this team had guys that were still ascending, had Pippen going up a level, which you can make the case maybe Jalen Williams or Chad or both this year.
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C
Chad, big time.
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A
And I'm with you. I actually think. I think they have a chance to be better. And the reason I mentioned this is you can bet on this house if you think the OKC Thunder can win 70 games. What do you think the odds are on FanDuel?
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B
Probably not great. You know what I mean? Like, probably three to one, something like that.
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C
I was going to go longer than that.
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A
How about +680?
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B
Oh, wow. Now that you have my attention.
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C
I was gonna like that. I didn't think I was gonna say 12 to 1 or something like that.
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A
Could they win 70 games?
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C
Yeah.
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A
Has not happened a lot. I think it's. I think the Plus 680 I thought was high.
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B
That out of all the bets that we've talked about so far, by that, that's. That's the one that's got my attention.
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A
Yeah.
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B
Odds wise. So you're.
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A
Are you over or under?
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B
I'm over now. Okay.
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C
Wow. Just like that.
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A
Well, no, he just had to be.
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B
Talked into because 63 is still over. It was five games worse than last year.
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C
I was stunned by how little I thought about a number this big. It was like over 60. Like, what do I feel bad if they win 61 games? I still feel good. 60 games are still awesome. I'm going over.
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B
Yeah, 63.
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A
One other thing with these guys. Some assets to trade if they wanted to get frisky. Right? They have all the draft picks which aren't quite as good as they felt like they were three years ago. They're still all right. They have, like, some. Some Philly stuff. They have some Utah stuff that's protected. They have some swap stuff with the Clippers in Houston. They have some Denver picks that I'm not too excited about because they have Yokage. They have a 20, 28 swap with Dallas that was way more exciting before Dallas, with 1.8% odds, won the Cooper flag lottery.
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B
Let's not talk about that.
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A
But they have stuff. They can just be like, here's four. First, we want to upgrade this spot and do it. I wanted to do one question for each team beyond just the over under. Is SGA the most untradable guy in the league for you right now? How many people would you put over him? We're doing trade value rankings because I had him three when I did my list in January, I had Jokic ahead of him and I had Wemby. SJ is going to be 20. He's 27 years old. He is MVP, Finals MVP. He's 31, 6 and 5 the last three seasons. And I wrote down he's like independent movie Kobe. Basically, he's Kobe. But it's a lower budget with the director who did for scale and got a bunch of actors, and they made it for 2 million and took it right to Cannes.
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B
He's not a blockbuster.
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Even Shay did this GQ interview cover story and had quotes in it, and it's like, whoa, Shay being interviewed. He's just like, we don't know anything about him. And I think he likes it that way.
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C
No, I mean, look, I. I'm. It's tempting to say Shea Wemby and Jokic are completely untradable, and yet we are eight months removed from Luka Doncic getting traded, like, inexplicably to the Lakers. But I. I think the. I think it's just Wemby, like, if you're gonna rank them all, I think Wemby has to be the number one most on.
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A
Would you put him over Yokage House? Wow, that's great. I think Wendy's one, but I think so young Jokic versus Shea is a really good argument now because Jokic is down his 30s.
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B
Right.
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So you're getting basically three extra apex years from Shai. Although maybe with the way Jokic moves, he could just play until he's 55. It's possible.
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B
His body looks like he's going to be able to withstand it.
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I still have Joker and Wemby over him. Wemby won. Joker too. I think Wemby's one now. Especially after the preseason game we watched last night. It was like, I think Wemby is now our number one. Okay, we're all over for OKC next one. Ironically, the Denver Nuggets, they're over. Under is 53 and a half. They are plus 470 for the conference, plus 750 for the title. Six to one to be our one seed. And unlike OKC, which basically returned the same team, they dumped Porter and Sarich and Russell Westbrook. Good joke on the Internet this week about Russell. Westbrook might change his name to Antetokounmpo to see if he can get signed by a team.
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B
Mean.
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Funny. It really checked off.
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C
It's mean to everybody.
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B
It's mean to everybody.
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A
Everybody's insulted. Multiple people get insulted with that joke. They added Cam Johnson. Huge fan. Bruce Brown, who really peaked with those guys and then was adrift for a couple years. Now back Jonas Valanchunas, who had a weird agent situation over the summer. Unclear if he wanted to play with Denver. Not. But he's there. And then Tim Hardaway Jr. Plus, Holmes is coming back. This is the deepest bench they've ever had. Zach. This is the best Nuggets team I think Jokic has ever had. Is that fair to say?
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C
It's in play. It could be the best regular season team they've ever had for sure.
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A
What would be another one for you?
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C
The year that won the title would be with Bruce Brown and KCP and other guys who. Jeff Green was still a viable player.
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A
Yeah. So they went seven deep that year.
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C
Probably a little deeper than that. Seven and a half. A little deeper than that. Yeah. This. This is on. This is on par or better than that as a regular season team. I just. I. I'm a. We'll see how the young guys develop. Like, I've always liked Strother, but it's never really happened. I like Peyton Watson. Can you make enough threes if, like, some of the bench young guys hit? Like Pickett is interesting as sort of like an Andre Miller clone, but not nearly as good. But like the big Bulky point guard guy.
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A
Interesting. Like, it's interesting to watch somebody try to walk across, like traffic. Interesting, Interesting.
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C
One of these young guys is going to pop a little bit at some point. How much does Bruce Brown like, how much of the Bruce Brown slump was just like, I miss. I just am longing for Jokic. I miss Jokic. I. I made a mistake or I didn't make a mistake. I got paid. But. But yeah, it's on the table. This is the deepest and best regular season Nuggets team.
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A
What I like about this team house, they can bring in dudes that aren't as good as their starters, but can replicate a lot of stuff that those guys like. When Valent Shunas comes in, you can kind of run offense through him for five minutes. You had him in Washington. Bruce Brown comes in, he can kind of pretend to be Aaron Gordon for a couple of minutes. Hardaway can come in, he can kind of pretend to be Cam Johnson for a couple of minutes. The issue I had within the last couple years is the guys they were bringing to the bench. It's almost like an NFL team where it's like, here's Lamar Jackson, Jackson's backup, a guy who's a completely different quarterback than him. And it's like, why don't you just have a running quarterback? Anyway, what do you think of the Nuggets?
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B
I absolutely adore them. I'm so happy for the Joker to have this cast at this moment after what we all saw the last couple years. Them being quality wise, as good as any team in the league, them being able to stand up in a series to any team in the league, and then they just get to that threshold moment and they just didn't have the depth. They didn't have the depth against Minnesota.
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A
Still didn't have the.
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B
That's right. Yes. This is the thing. So I absolutely. This. We've been clamoring for this for how long now? Years. Right. You know who else was clamoring for it? Mike Effing Malone, who gets to watch it on television this season. Yeah. Because him and Calvin Booth couldn't get on the same page. Right, Zach?
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C
Yeah. So they cleared out the cloud of dysfunction, those hanging over the organization. David Adelman is the new coach. Everyone seems to like him. He's doing creative stuff in the preseason. They're playing zone, they're playing the centers together.
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A
Some people are calling him Dave.
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C
Is that on the table?
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A
I would say he's like, he's David Adelman. But now they're so comfortable with them. There's a couple days.
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B
He saved me.
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C
He's doing the opposite of Malone, who went from Mike Malone to Michael Malone. He's going long to short. It's a culture shift.
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B
Dave Adelman all across the board for Denver.
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A
Maybe like one or two. Davies, I don't.
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C
Dave, you can't go. Davey. Davey, quick question. Davey, on the zone defense, you're in the third quarter.
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A
Were you on a side. In the cloud of dysfunction or were you just.
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C
I was on the side of, like, I can't believe you two. I can't believe it got this bad. Like, it's not. The team is good. They won a title. How does it get this bad? Why did it get this bad? Valentiutis is interesting because, like, he's become a journeyman now. He's been all over the Western Conference and a little bit in Washington, Toronto, obviously. And I just think, like, when Jokic would go out of games, they would have just no identity. It was like, if Jamal Murray doesn't make crazy step back 20 footers, we're just not going to score. He's not.
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A
You were holding on for your life for five minutes.
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C
JV is at least, like, I can dump it to him in the post and kill time and feel like I'm not just desperately grasping at straws to score points.
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B
I was blown away by the short stint that it. That he enjoyed and watched him.
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A
I.
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B
Well, I got lucky enough to sit low enough at a couple games in Washington. Tickets were available and you could hear him talking and the leadership role that he played with those kids. That dude just knows how to play effing basketball. He gets to the right spot, he knows where everybody's supposed to be, tells him, go, go, move, whatever. And he is a big boy. That's a big boy right there.
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A
Well, also, like, what fun situation has he been in? Like, he was on that weird New Orleans team. He was on Washington. He was in Sacramento. Like, like, this is like, the perfect team for him. Just come in, we'll run everything through you for six minutes a half. And then if Jokic gets in foul trouble, we actually have an option of a professional basket.
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C
Can I just state some. Some. Some dings to the dev?
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A
I'm excited for Skeptic. Zach on the 53 and a half. No, you have the 53 and a half's a little high for Zach.
- [19:46]
C
The Aaron Gordon leg stuff seems to come and go. Looks good in the preseason. Cam Johnson's missed a lot of games over the last couple years.
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A
I wouldn't say he's Cal Ripken Jr.
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C
I think they're rebounding will take a little bit of a hit without mpj. That was like one of the things he did consistently pretty well for them. Jamal Murray, all the camp reports are very exciting. He's in, you know, better condition and mentality than you. He always starts slow. Right. That's one of the reasons the Nuggets tend to not blow away their win total over unders. So those are like the dings, I think. Like do these vet bench veterans whose names sound good, like Bruce Brown, he did stuff for Denver. Tim Hardaway Jr. Did. Do they actually help the team or is their name recognition alloying their value and just like win totals from the last, you know, X Denver seasons. 46, 47, 48, 53, 57, 50. They just don't have a track record as like a blow away. Regular season, team playoffs, different story. Absolutely terrifying. With the best player on the planet and a team that makes sense regular season, they're not like blowing you away.
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A
The 57 would be the doppelganger, I think for this season. For me, the last year, the Murray thing was so weird those first six weeks. House, I have a question for you because you've shared season tickets with people before.
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B
I have.
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A
And when you share season tickets with people, you do a draft where you send your list and like here's my 20. And then you do like somebody gets first pick and you get it. If I was doing this with my season tickets, Denver would be my first pick.
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B
Oh wow.
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A
I would want to see them over every other team in the league. Would they be your first pick?
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B
No. Cause I need to see Wemby. I haven't seen Wemby yet in person. I need to see Wemby.
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A
So that would have been my second pick.
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B
Yeah.
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A
What would be your first pick? Look, fortunately for you, you can go to MSGC any game you want. But would that work?
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C
The bar, the Barclays center?
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B
Just.
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C
You just. You're not even considering that.
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A
I just thought they had a WNBA games. They have an NBA team. Wow. What's it called?
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B
Poor Jordy.
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C
It has the worst team name in the NBA.
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A
I thought that was the.
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C
Where the Liberty played in any case.
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A
And they have pizza.
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C
I think. I think Wemby is now ascended to like I got to see this guy again and again. But to your point, Jokic, I go to Toronto every year for the holidays where my wife's parents live. The Raptors have a murders row schedule right after Christmas, including Denver at Toronto on like New Year's Eve and I've told my wife and my family like, a, we're staying through New Year's Eve, so I'm going to that game and B, we're going to all go to the game together because you need to watch this dude play in person and just ravage the poor Raptors. So it's still, it's still a hot ticket.
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A
Can I make the Joker case you're, you're doing this draft in September. Jokic is playing probably 97% certainty when he's in your town.
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C
I got a knock on wood, Wembley.
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B
I have no idea what a knock on wood.
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A
Joker plays, Joker plays. Joker's out there and you know you're going to see him. And especially if it's a bigger city, he shows up. Unlike say a Joel Embiid in Denver. Like if you're doing the season ticket draft, you live in Denver. Embiid goes 30th because he hasn't played at Denver in a decade. I would have Joker first, Wemby second.
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C
Can I tell you a heartbreaker for me. So I got laid off from ESPN last year. What?
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A
When did that happen?
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B
Zach Lowe.
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A
I used to work there.
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C
Organized my wife. Big mistake on my wife's part. Was like when I got home from la, she was like, you know what, Zach? Carte blanche. Take whatever trips you want to clear your head. And she said it in front of a dad friend of mine. So the planning began like, oh, carte blanche. Seven dads from Connecticut descend on the deep south for a week. Starting in New Orleans. Built around Nuggets, Pelicans. Yeah, because I'm like, I'm telling you guys, this is like, this is a religious experience to watch this guy. We had great seats. Like, this is a religious experience to watch this guy in person. Here was the Nuggets starting lineup that night. Dario sarich, Michael Porter Jr. Peyton Watson, Jamal Murray, Christian Brown. Hunter Tyson got in the game. Hunter, Tyson, Jokic. Jokic. His wife gave birth.
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A
Oh, that. See, it has to be like a crazy event like that.
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C
Heartbreaker.
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B
You didn't do anything wrong.
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A
Heartbreaker.
- [24:07]
C
Found out on the flight down. News broke. I didn't know how to break it to them. It was like now you guys are like, Peyton Watson's kind of funny. Like Mike block a shot, you know. Luckily they played the Lakers the next night and LeBron hit a game winning jumper.
- [24:19]
A
That was a good game.
- [24:20]
C
Yeah.
- [24:22]
A
First legacy, legacy shift. New segment on the over unders pod. Got to talk about legacies. Is there a star player with A bigger legacy shift brewing on a pot on the stove than Jokic this year. Because if they win the title and he wins MVP again, I think he's indisputably one of the best 10 players ever. I think that has to be the outcome because at that point, his 2000s, I'm including, let's say he first team this year, MVP, just hypothetical. His 2000s just this decade, four first team, two second, four MVPs, two second place finishes and probably should have won one of those two. And then he would be basically a triple double for the entire decade plus 29, 13 and 8 in 80 playoff games. Whatever. It's going to end up being like, I just don't see how he's not on a top 10 list after that. He has to be.
- [25:19]
C
I think the more interesting question is like, if they never get a second title, is he still. Like, his statistics are so. And individual honors are so crazy. And like no one who has watched the Nuggets for the last years, they haven't won the title can make a case that it's Jokic's fault, like at all. He shows up in every.
- [25:38]
A
It comes to Jerry west situation. Like, I had west in the top 10 when I did my book. He only won one title. I didn't hold that against him because they were in there.
- [25:46]
C
But if he gets a second one, the names he's next to like next to immediately, not next to like, well, three more years is next to immediately are like the holy pantheon of NBA players.
- [25:56]
A
He has to be with Bird and Magic at that point. Yeah, he's next to them. And then we can start talking about top four. You hear that?
- [26:02]
B
We're all in agreement. And you know, it's why the fist pumps the huzzahs. As this off season occurred and we saw this team finally giving the, you know, the assets, creating the multiple in terms of they're built to withstand a little bit of time off for Gordon, they're built to withstand a little time off for Murray. They're built to. Even if Joker wants a little break, I'm okay with JV getting some. Some starter minutes there over the course of this long regular season. The answer is hell yes. I do wonder. I do want to have this legacy shift conversation. I have a guy in mind. Do we save it for when we get to that team?
- [26:38]
A
And then if you want to hit your legacy shift button, just pound it.
- [26:43]
B
Pound it. Okay. Well, I'm sitting on mine for.
- [26:46]
A
I had one other thing on Jokic because I thought of this when I was doing the research, and it's not 100% fair because it's a decades thing. So somebody could peak starting in the middle of a decade and then to the first two years of the next decade. So you can't say whatever. The 60s were owned by Russell. The 70s were owned by Kareem. Those were indisputable. 80s were Bird of Magic together. 90s were Jordan. 2000s were Duncan and Kobe together. The 2000 and tens were LeBron and Curry together. The 20s are just Joker right now. I don't think we have 26, 27, 28, 29. So we have four. Unless. Where do you stand on what does decade end for the 20s? Does it have to be the 30 season or the 29 season? That's where it gets super confusing for me.
- [27:37]
C
I have not put a lot of thought into my head. It's really a decade.
- [27:41]
A
But who would you even have in the running for the 2010 20s other than Joker? If we're like, what were the 2000s who owned that decade? It's Joker right now, convincingly.
- [27:49]
C
Kawhi. Just for being in the news all the time.
- [27:51]
A
But, I mean, in the 2020s, they haven't.
- [27:53]
C
No, I'm just kidding, Shay.
- [27:56]
A
Maybe I just got your aspiration joke. 5. Five seconds later. By the way, we're in the aspiration dome.
- [28:01]
C
Giannis.
- [28:02]
A
Yeah, but they just gave us a Giannis who hasn't made the.
- [28:06]
C
I understand you've got five years to play with.
- [28:10]
B
We do, yeah. 25, 26, 27, 28.
- [28:13]
A
So the guy who can take it over the rest of the decade is Shea.
- [28:17]
C
Sure.
- [28:18]
A
Couple more titles with the resume. He's the only one, I think, that's in the.
- [28:22]
C
You're just dismissing Jason Tatum. You've already got him coming back in, you know, February Celtics, you know, I.
- [28:28]
A
Mean, that's maybe another candidate. Jason Tatum. I'm over for the Nuggets at 53 and a half. House.
- [28:36]
B
I am super over. This is a lock. Put it in my book right now. House lock, Denver, over. For all the reasons, I'm not going.
- [28:45]
A
To announce my locks until the end of the pod, but you can do whatever you want. You can hit the legacy button whenever you want.
- [28:52]
B
It's Nuggets. Over is a lock.
- [28:53]
A
Are you over, Zach?
- [28:55]
C
This is one of the ones I struggle with the most. There's three that I went back and forth on. I'm going under on 53 and a half. Based on their history as sort of a regular season. Good. But not Great team. And I can't go over on everyone in the West. Right. Like, I've got to have some unders.
- [29:13]
B
True.
- [29:13]
C
So I'm going slightly under like 51 and 31, 52 and 30. Prepared to be very wrong. I'm just going to. I just got to go under on someone. I'm going under on them. Playoff, different story. I'm not. I don't want any part of these dudes at a playoff series. I think they would be the number two seed in the west and I'll go from there. But I'm going under.
- [29:33]
A
I would like to go on the record and say, because the season's about to start, that I think it's okc, Denver. And then we drop.
- [29:41]
C
That's the final drop.
- [29:41]
A
I think those are the two best teams.
- [29:43]
B
Western Conference final is okc.
- [29:44]
C
And I mean, look, who knows what changes, right?
- [29:46]
A
Injuries and everything.
- [29:46]
B
But of course.
- [29:47]
A
Of course. And if you're just talking about a ceiling of a team that could potentially join that nightclub, maybe Cleveland, just from a talent standpoint and the fact that they won 64 last year, but I don't feel as certain at that point, honestly.
- [30:01]
C
I mentioned this on my pod yesterday. Like, one of the fascinating. Like, I rarely start thinking about seedings until we're 60 games into the season. Everyone in the west has to be rooting for some scenario where Denver falls to four and has to play Oklahoma City in the second round where you don't have to go through both of them because they're so clearly, to me, in a tier hovering above everybody else.
- [30:24]
A
Would you see that GM survey? They said, which I thought was really interesting, but they had the home court advantage question in Denver. And OKC were basically like, had 95% of the votes or 90% of the votes or something. I was like, yeah, that's fair.
- [30:37]
B
But that's a good point because that's another incentive for Denver to get to.
- [30:40]
C
Yeah.
- [30:41]
B
And be motivated to win 50.
- [30:42]
C
I'm still staying under. I gotta be under on somebody.
- [30:44]
B
Can't hold it out against you.
- [30:48]
A
Emails from Denver message board, things from Denver. Tweet replies from Denver. Fuck you, Zach. You went under, you motherfucker.
- [30:56]
C
I was so early on, Jokic, that, yeah, I have a lifetime with the Denver fans.
- [31:02]
B
Nuggets capital.
- [31:03]
A
Minnesota's over 49 and a half. One of the toughest ones. They were 49 and 33 last year. They are 10 to 1 to win the division and the conference. 17 to 1 for the title. And they have the seventh best finals odds. Zach why don't the sportsbooks respect this team? What is Minnesota missing? What did they do to antagonize?
- [31:25]
C
Okay, we're going to go this way.
- [31:27]
A
All right.
- [31:28]
C
49 wins last year. You said like not. That's not a lot of wins. That's under their current number. Lost a critical bench player in Alexander Walker. Have to replace him mostly with young guys. When does the Mike Conley thing just fall apart completely to the point that they have to start Devon Chancellor and there's a trickle down effect there. That is. That would be the, that would be the case for the line being this low counter house.
- [31:53]
B
Well, the crazy thing Is they got to 49 after they started off really slow last year. They were an under 500 team through the first 20, 25 games.
- [32:01]
A
I would say unhappy. I mean there were multiple podcasts for multiple weeks about what's going on with Minnesota.
- [32:07]
C
Was this, is this Randall fit like a disaster?
- [32:09]
A
What's happening? Kenzo was miserable. I mean they made a pretty traumatic trade right before the season.
- [32:15]
B
It was, it was traumatic and it took a little bit for the chemist experiment to work, but then we saw it work a little bit. And I think the version of what we saw in the Western Conference finals, the second consecutive Western Conference finals. Yeah, that's who this team is. And there's still another level for Anthony Edwards. There's still another level for that dude. So I am in the same place as Zach is sort of puzzled by the number being flat and I'm not sure what informs that. I think the. It's anticipating the market being out on Minnesota, not because this number hasn't moved. It's been a hard 49 and a half.
- [32:53]
A
I mean them having worse finals odds than the Lakers is pure lunacy. And I just don't understand it. They were top five net last year. They have a top 10 player. They still have a top five defense. And one thing that I used last year that helped me a little but I used leaned at it more this year is the records and the numbers for the last 30 games of the season. And Minnesota was 20 and 10 the last 30 games. There's plus 7.3 with basically the team they have. And the only piece that's an X factor is Alexander Walker who's getting those minutes other than Conley. But they have young guys that they can throw in those Alexander Walker minutes and maybe get lucky. Plus they'll have a full defincenzo year. And Conley's like Horford, like I'm just not ruling him out anymore. Until we see that he's just completely washed up. I'm over. I just think. I think you can make a case. This is like the fourth or fifth best team in the league. So at that point you have to be 50 wins and over. So I am an over yet again. Three overs in a row for me.
- [33:57]
C
Dillingham, Shannon. I like Jalen Clark. Like, I think they can eat up the Alexander Walker minutes. Well enough with Ant ascending. Randall feeling more comfortable. Gobert just as a great floor for your defense. Okay. The other case against is they got 82 games out of McDaniels last year. 82, Alexander Walker. 80 NAS 79, Edwards. 72, Gobert. 69, Rand Aldo. It felt like he missed more time. Like they were very healthy last year but expected wins last year. 54. They shat the bed in close games. Yep.
- [34:29]
A
For two months. Remember, they. They were really bad.
- [34:32]
C
I am going aggressively, enthusiastically over.
- [34:36]
A
All right.
- [34:37]
B
See, I am too.
- [34:38]
A
I think this is a 50 win team. Yeah.
- [34:40]
B
And I understand why Zach wouldn't want to do Denver because it's. It puts. It would put him in the position that you and I are. Nbs, which is another over, over, over, over. We show up at the over under podcast 2025 and we're banging west overs.
- [34:54]
C
But you know, Denver's number is four numbers higher than Minnesota.
- [34:57]
A
But if we think these are three of the five best teams in the league, makes more sense. Coincidentally, they're on the same division. We didn't mention Julius Randall living happily in his post marijuana life. No more marijuana for him. He felt like it made him distant. It slowed him down. His brain's clear. He's feeling great.
- [35:19]
C
Do you think that message reverberated around the NBA community? And there are going to be imitators.
- [35:25]
A
There was a great Durant quote. Durant quote where Durant was like, yeah, I respect it. But me personally, I really like the Plant.
- [35:35]
B
I did not see that.
- [35:36]
C
I do.
- [35:36]
B
I do want to hear from Zach. This will factor in what? I will get to Toronto eventually. What's the Toronto situation with the Plant? That's going to factor in crucially for me.
- [35:46]
C
Are you asking me because you think I plan vacations around?
- [35:50]
B
As a person that spends time in.
- [35:52]
A
Canada, is it a marijuana city?
- [35:54]
C
I'm unaware, but I. Canada generally is a. Toronto is a forward thinking place.
- [36:01]
B
There's a player I'm thinking of that I'm worried about.
- [36:04]
A
House, don't get us canceled. Come on.
- [36:06]
B
Just a player I'm worried about. That's all.
- [36:08]
A
House, are you over under Over. All right, three over. Well, we spent a lot of time in those three teams, so we're going to take our first break and come back with the two crappy teams in division. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. You know the NBA season's almost here when that anticipation kicks in. What trades work, what rookies pop, which teams flame out by Christmas. I think for non Celtic stuff, the team I'm probably looking forward to seeing the most is the Denver Nuggets. As you know, I'm a Giant Jokic fan. I thought the supporting cast was below average for him last year and they made a bunch of big moves. I'm really excited to see Cam Johnson on that team. I'm excited to see him with a better bench. Bruce Brown is back and I'm excited to just have a good Nuggets team back in my life along with a lot of other storylines, really deep leagues this season. Whatever happens when I'm watching all that unfold, especially with Nuggets, I'm doing it with the Michelob Ultra in hand. Superior light beer just 95 calories. There are lots of moments worth playing for, but the ones that taste the best are served cold. Order Michelob Ultra. Fill up your fridge as we gear up for NBA season. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2025 Anheuser Busch Michelob Ultra Light Beer, St. Louis, Missouri this episode is sponsored by Uber Eats. Here's the thing. Football and food just go together almost too well. Hash marks. They look like hash browns. Turnover Suddenly want dessert? Pancake box pasta Syrup. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. Who's to say? The good news? Uber Eats has game day deals all season long. Like a Bogo Large extra most bestest pepperoni pizza from Little Caesars available now. So when football makes you hungry, get game day deals on Uber Eats promotion available until October 19th. Product availability varies by region. See app for details. Terms apply. This episode is brought to you by Viori. Look, I'm not a big let's hype up workout clothes guy, but Vuori, I gotta say, total game changer. Been wearing a lot. If you see me power walking around Los Angeles, probably gonna see me wearing some Vuori Sunday performance joggers that they have. It's made with four way performance stretch fabric, one of the most comfortable things you own. You will wear them everywhere, I promise. All you have to do is go to Vuoria.com Simmons and you get 20% off your first purchase with Vuori V-U-O-R-I.com Simmons enjoy free shipping on all US orders over $75, plus free returns. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA season is coming. FanDuel is the place to let you play your game. Everything. Everything. They have to get you ready for this season. We're gonna be talking about a lot on the podcast for not just today, but the rest of the week and next week. Cool bets, season leaders, player specials, win totals, exact team outcomes, playoff parlays. You can go nuts. Even better, you can parlay your favorite bets together for an even bigger payout. Take a flyer in the MVP race, crown your champion October parlay or play off dark horses. We're gonna be doing our season Future boost. We're trying to figure this out during the over under pods. FanDuel is going to have it. I'll talk about it on my Thursday podcast. We like to put three teams together with win totals. 40 plus wins, 45 plus wins, 50 plus wins. Put them together and we're on a win streak. We lost last year because of the stupid Suns, but we're going to win this year. So get ready for our boost announced on Thursday's pod. Visit FanDuel.com BSToday and you can start planning your futures bets now. FanDuel. I don't feel like we mentioned Anthony Edwards enough in the last segment, but it's fine. We have a whole year of podcasts for him. We're going to go to the Portland Trailblazers, the next team in whatever this division is called. Northwest. The State Farm Northwest division, presented by Kia. They're over. Under is 34 and a half and they're plus 410 to make the playoffs, plus 200 for the play in house if you want to get frisky. They had a Drew Holiday. They traded Anthony Simons for him. They lost DeAndre Ayton. They didn't lose him. Basically, they brought him to the airport like a suitcase and just left the suitcase baggage. They evicted him and they added Yang Hansen, who already feels like that was like one of the smartest marketing moves of the decade. People love him. He's selling jerseys, hats, everything.
- [40:25]
B
The kids love him.
- [40:26]
A
He might be good.
- [40:27]
B
My kid insisted on watching every summer league game with Jon Hansen.
- [40:30]
A
The kids love.
- [40:31]
B
I'm telling you, they can see his enthusiasm out there. Yeah. And he's really fun.
- [40:38]
A
I have no idea if it's going to translate to NBA games, but I do enjoy him. The one thing with this over under. And I was leaning more toward over, but Scoot tore his hamstring and is out. They're like one to two months. I feel like that's one of those injuries where you're not right for a while even when you come back. And Zach, that shaded me toward the under here.
- [41:03]
C
Okay, 36 wins last year. So they went over this number expected wins. 33 fattened up at the end of the season, 23 and 18 in their last 41, which you could read either way. They found something or they took advantage of, you know, the morass.
- [41:17]
A
You know what they found? House's old friend Denny Abdia.
- [41:21]
B
He was wider. He was.
- [41:23]
A
He's like one of the best 20 players in the league.
- [41:25]
C
Down the stretch, he's. And I think that was totally real. Like, I think that is a legit, like, very good player. Shaden maybe goes up a level. Grant Only played 47 games last year.
- [41:39]
A
Might be 46 too many.
- [41:42]
B
We both had the same joke.
- [41:43]
C
I'm sure you're hoping this is the year Time Lord plays 80 games. He's still on the Blazers.
- [41:48]
A
Not betting on that one.
- [41:52]
C
I am going under on this, which surprised me because I felt like a kind of a jolt of optimism about how the Blazers finished the season. I'm like super intrigued by their young guys. I just don't like their depth. I think their offense is going to be putrid. Like there's just no shooting. I don't know if the centers are really ready for this level of offensive responsibility in Klingon and Young. And the west is just really, really good. I think Portland's going to be solid. Their defense is going to be really good. Like Kamara, Abdia, Clingan, like a rock solid defensive team. I just think they're not going to score enough to go over this number. So I'm going slight under.
- [42:26]
B
This is literally the script. They can't score. And I don't want the Portland soccer moms to get mad at me. I love this Portland team. I root for them because Denny. I root for Denny. It broke my heart when he. When they shipped him out of Washington, I understood why. I get the timeline that Washington is on. He's too good for the Washington timeline.
- [42:44]
A
Yeah.
- [42:45]
B
And I'm glad for him to be in the situation that he's in, but I think that they are going to have a hard time scoring the basketball. And so I am doing the under play for the Portland.
- [42:57]
A
I was surprised. I was over in my head all off season. And I think here's the title that they're going to win because I think we all think they're going under and I think they will. They might have a chance to be 2026's hipster NBA team.
- [43:11]
B
Oh, that's a good idea.
- [43:13]
A
Defense. There's going to be some really good defense.
- [43:15]
B
Say camera. We have to say camera's name multiple times. Yeah.
- [43:19]
C
Damani. Kamara. I said it.
- [43:20]
B
Kamara.
- [43:21]
A
I like when you called him camera though.
- [43:23]
B
I'm going to keep going because you.
- [43:24]
A
Had the first prop ism of the pod.
- [43:25]
B
It's going to be one of a dozen.
- [43:29]
A
Kamara, who I think was really the thinking man's like that really, really, really nerdy epicenter of basketball on the Internet where people are like, look at these fucking numbers. When this guy's plays. Look at the numbers of guys that he guards and how much he. I think I voted for him. Second team defensive, all defense.
- [43:52]
C
I didn't have a ballot, but I would have. He had a first team.
- [43:55]
B
He made it scoot.
- [43:57]
A
I still have all my scoot stock feeling great about it. And then Yang Hansen. I think this will be a really fun league pass team. But they're. You made the key point House like no scoop for two months. We're not even positive if he's going to be like, I don't know, an efficient offensive player. But I thought, you know Simons. The Simons is intriguing. The Celtics are like, oh boy, Zach knew I was going to do this. The Celtics are like, whoa, Simons, like this guy's like a really gifted offensive player. Like you can run offense for him in the last four minutes of the game. And he did that a lot for the Blazers last year.
- [44:33]
C
He did.
- [44:33]
A
And they just pull that out. And guess what? I love Drew Holiday, but that's not Drew Holiday.
- [44:38]
C
And I don't. I don't have a lot of faith that he's going to get to 60, 65 games for the Blazers. They're already down one guard and scoot. It should be noted, like I think their incentives are all like we're trying to win this year. We're die hard trying to get in the play in, yeah, chase, whatever. Like as win as much as we.
- [44:53]
A
Can get the hearts in the right place.
- [44:54]
C
However, they do owe a lottery protected pick to the Bulls. So like if. If things are not going great 55 games into the season, you always have to factor those in. You always have to factor that. I don't think they care. I don't think it's going to guide Their thinking. It's just if we get to a point where we have to start thinking about them.
- [45:11]
A
I didn't love the Drew Holiday season last year, and I say that as somebody who loves Drew Holiday. And I thought. I thought it was alarming that he couldn't guard anyone on the Knicks because I thought a year ago, he's somebody who could have guarded all of the Knicks. And in that Knicks playoff series, I just. I was really surprised that he wasn't at that same level. I mentioned this because they're paying Drew Holiday, Jeremy Grant, and Dame Lillard, who's not going to play this year. It combines $77 million and. Wait, that then goes to $82 billion guaranteed the year later. Oh, wait, 88 million in year three of that for those three guys. And how they will be like 37 at that point. It's really bad Cap management. I'm just going to say it like when we had the second apron and stuff. That's just a lot of money to pay for those guys. I don't agree with it.
- [46:04]
C
Well, Grant was the desperation trying to keep Dame. You know, we promise you this deal.
- [46:10]
A
It was the Miles Turner. I really want to stay married. Here's a ring.
- [46:14]
C
The Drew I did.
- [46:15]
A
There's a new ring. I gave you a new carrot. Please don't divorce me.
- [46:19]
C
The Drew trade was a little ahead of their skis for me. That was like a very win. Now we need an adult in the room. We need leadership, which is like, all that stuff is valuable, but it's not as valuable as a $37 million player option three seasons from now. That's. That's just.
- [46:36]
A
It was a miracle trade for the Celtics. Yeah, I get. Listen, I get why they did it. It's good to have adults around. It really is. That's fundamentally. They just felt you can just be too young. And it's nice to have a couple people even. I was talking to our friend Cali Curry because Seth went to Golden State, and it's like, well, what's different about Golden State than Charlotte? I don't think she'd mind me saying this. And she's like, well, they have people his age on Golden State, like Curry, Al Horford, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler. Like, these are older players. There's something to have a couple old guys around. So I get it. Why Portland's like, hey, we need a couple more experienced guys. Drew is like a beloved locker room guy. I get it. That's like, I wouldn't have done it, but I get it.
- [47:26]
B
What's the difference between Maui and Galveston? Like what? What kind of question is that?
- [47:31]
A
Are we three unders?
- [47:32]
C
Three unders?
- [47:33]
B
Unders.
- [47:34]
A
Utah Jazz over under 19 and a half. They were 17 and 65 last year. They lost John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Colin Sexton. Didn't really get anything back for any of those guys. They have Kyle Anderson. They have my comeback player of the year pick, Yusuf Nurkic. That's not true. George Diang. And they added Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton and most importantly, Zach. We'll keep mentioning this with the picks. They owe a top eight first protected to okc, which means to be safe, you want to be in the bottom five to feel really good about not having to hand that pick over. I don't know where to start with this team. I get. Let's start here. How does Will Hardy explain his job to his wife when he's home at night? What does he say? This is year four for Will Hardy being like, hey, if it's cool, we want to go 18 and 64 again.
- [48:36]
C
I think you say there are only 30 of these. They keep extending my contract into perpetuity. Do you like the home we live in? School system seems pretty good. Like we're living. We're like the five star hotels on vacation all summer where we.
- [48:50]
A
Seems great.
- [48:51]
B
Yeah, I think it's a good situation. I think he's like, look, look around the league at the coaches. If he became available, he would. I mean, you know instantly by any of the top teams in the league if a top team needed to make, make a move. Like none of this is going to.
- [49:09]
A
Besmirch his San Antonio.
- [49:12]
B
Interesting, Interesting name.
- [49:13]
C
This is why Utah. I mean they've literally. I've lost count of how many contract extensions Will Hardy has got. Like, I assume his deal runs for like 17 more years. They know, but that's what you do. Like if you believe in a coach and the coach is going through a rebuild, you. You give him these kind of years. So it's not the classic thing where as soon as the team gets good, oh, we're hiring the veteran over qualified for this team.
- [49:33]
B
And that's been the case for, for all four years.
- [49:35]
A
Plus it worked out incredible for Brett Brown.
- [49:38]
C
That's what I'm saying. You don't want that. You treat.
- [49:40]
A
That was a joke.
- [49:41]
C
I know, but that's what I'm saying. This is what the extensions you just.
- [49:44]
A
Made the case that Brett Brown's friends were making in the 2010s. No, this is great. Someday it's going to be awesome. And he's never coached again.
- [49:52]
C
But they never gave him like extensions on top of extensions on top of extensions like the Jazz are doing with all.
- [49:57]
A
Why do you think they gave him the GM job?
- [49:59]
C
That's true.
- [50:00]
A
Took Markel Fultz over Jason Tatum.
- [50:02]
C
That wasn't him.
- [50:04]
A
Wasn't him. Who was it?
- [50:06]
B
One of the.
- [50:07]
A
Oh, here's my next. What's in it for you at this point? What's in it for Laurie? Marketing house at this point? Why does he want to be in this team?
- [50:15]
C
$175 million.
- [50:16]
B
Great contract. Yeah. A lot of dollars.
- [50:18]
A
Well, they gave him the extension. You're being the team this year and then we'll talk about it after.
- [50:21]
B
But nice, comfortable situation. Not being asked to do too much.
- [50:26]
C
That's the only, that's the overargument is that the number is extremely low. And they have an all star, borderline all star level player who played 47 games last year and a good starting center who played 58. And if they get 75 games out of those two, can they go over this number? Because the bigger is the issue beyond that is I think all these other veterans are going to go to contenders. I think a guy like George Niang could help a contender. I think, like, I, I, I think they're all going. The biggest issue to me is like, who in the hell is dribbling the ball for this team that I trust to manage productive NBA possessions? And I had. The answer is like, at this point and it's not, it's not a bad thing because they're all so young. I don't trust anybody. And so like Lowry, Markkanen is not like a first option ball handler type of star. I just don't know that combined with the possibility of them trading Markkanen. I'm going, I, I'm going under. Which is shocking considering 19 and a half is like an embarrassingly low number.
- [51:24]
B
It's a super low number. The thing that makes me nervous about it is that Ace Bailey might be a badass motherfucker. And it might make those people so excited that they come out and they try and win games. They do like what Brooklyn did last year, which is they come out and win some games early on in the season and, you know, look really good.
- [51:43]
A
Hold on, I'm on with my realtor. I told him we'd be calling because apparently Ace Bailey. Island. There's contest. There's no island.
- [51:52]
C
How is there an island?
- [51:53]
A
It's a giant island. It's like a peninsula top Five. Doesn't matter.
- [51:58]
B
He was a top three that slid.
- [52:00]
A
I was. Beachfront property available on Ace Bailey Island. I'm in. Are you in?
- [52:05]
C
I. I assume we're all in.
- [52:06]
B
Yeah, we're all in.
- [52:08]
A
Yeah.
- [52:08]
C
It's overcrowded.
- [52:09]
A
I'll call you back.
- [52:10]
B
It's overcrowded.
- [52:10]
C
The bars are packed.
- [52:11]
A
No, he's saying, he's telling me it's not overcrowded, but like he said that all the stuff, all the stuff in the offseason made people nervous. Right? Yeah.
- [52:18]
C
Okay.
- [52:18]
A
All right, we're in.
- [52:18]
C
He's going to be very exciting. I'm high on him. He's going to have crazy highlights. I just don't think it's going to be like efficient in against adult NBA teams.
- [52:28]
A
That's all counter. He looked like a more filled out 19 year old Kevin Durant in all the highlights I've seen so far. I would take it, I'd take it a little easy. I just said, look, you can't see my boner right now.
- [52:42]
B
Zach Lowe's sending you some settle down juice.
- [52:44]
A
Right?
- [52:45]
C
He's pushing it. Right. I assume you're going like way over.
- [52:48]
A
No, I'm going under.
- [52:49]
B
I am going under as well. But I just wanted to make the case that Ace Bailey is the argument for the over because I mean like.
- [52:56]
A
That enthusiasm, I actually thought he was going to be a bust after. But like the, some of the advanced stats with him as a college player combined with how erratic some of the non basketball stuff seemed, and then him going to Utah and not seeming like he wanted to go there, and I was like, oh, man. But I understand why Danny did it because it's like you have to go highest ceiling. This guy's the highest ceiling. You got to do it. But then all the stuff I've read, all the stuff I've heard, and then watching him, how comfortable he seems physically in these games already when he's like a baby.
- [53:28]
B
He's a professional basketball player.
- [53:30]
A
He has more thickness and size than I was expecting. And then the shot, I don't know if he would be fun to play with. He might just be his own solo act, but I think it's gonna be really easy for him to score. And it may be right away, which to me makes me think that maybe you move faster on marketing, like trying to make the trade because it's like you can put Ace in like, let's get him the ball, let's get him shots.
- [53:54]
C
And I just want to say for the Utah fans, me saying, who's Dribbling the ball. I watched your team. I saw what Isaiah Collier did. Like solid Keonte George has flashes. I'm just saying, like, this is the NBA. It's hard to run offense and their efficiency numbers were bad. If you have property on Ace Bailey island, which is, by the way, ridiculous. It's like a continent. Can I get like a little condo on Filipowski Fjord? Like.
- [54:17]
A
I like that guy.
- [54:18]
C
He's pretty good.
- [54:18]
A
I like him too. I like Sensiba. I like some of the guys in this team. They're going to be terrible this year. Yeah, they.
- [54:24]
B
I'm going to watch them, by the way.
- [54:26]
C
So our only disagreement in this entire division. Yeah, we're going to have lots of Denver. I'm under and you're over.
- [54:31]
B
That's it so far.
- [54:31]
C
Otherwise, we're unanimous so far.
- [54:33]
B
We're all under on this. Yes, we're all under.
- [54:36]
A
Can I give you three marketing teams really quick?
- [54:38]
C
Sure.
- [54:41]
A
Detroit's been the sexy one. Could this be our last gas Golden State move? They already tried to get him.
- [54:50]
C
I'm not sure how that one works now with Butler in the door.
- [54:53]
A
Salary wise Kaminga, they can't patch the salaries together or.
- [54:56]
C
No, they have picks to trade. I mean, Kaminga's got a base king.
- [54:59]
A
Moody, Buddy healed all their picks.
- [55:03]
B
Is Kamingo on the. On the right timeline for Utah?
- [55:06]
C
I don't.
- [55:07]
A
That I don't know. Would I want to jeopardize the Ace Bailey continent with. With Kamingka?
- [55:13]
C
I'm not sure.
- [55:15]
A
Should Houston have gone after marketing over kd?
- [55:20]
B
We're gonna have. That's a fascinating question.
- [55:22]
C
That's a good one.
- [55:24]
A
I was thinking about that the other day. Look, would Utah have taken Jalen Green, Dylan Brooks and the number 10 for marketing, but probably like another first. You'd have to throw in like more stuff, right? Maybe a Brooklyn pick.
- [55:35]
C
Yeah, you'd have to throw in more stuff. And the contract is like. The contract is right now after he played 47 games last year. Not entirely his fault. The Jazz were faking injuries and all that stuff.
- [55:45]
A
Yep.
- [55:46]
C
The contract is kind of an eye of the beholder contract. Like you can find executives around the league. I don't know if I want to pay Larry Markin in 55, $54 million in four years.
- [55:56]
A
I did. I sent House the depth charts, the starters, bench for each team. Utah's bench. Ace Bailey, Williams, Sensibach. Clayton's coming off bench. Pasky. Are they going to play him and mark it in together?
- [56:11]
B
Let's go.
- [56:12]
A
What are we waiting for?
- [56:14]
B
Good point.
- [56:14]
C
All right.
- [56:14]
A
We're moving to the Southwest Division, which is led by the Houston rockets over under 52 and a half, minus 220 to win the division, which surprised me. 171 for the title, 10 to 1 for the conference. They were 52 and 30 last year. They added Kevin Durant, you might have heard of him. Clint Capella for some reason. Finney Smith. They lost Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green. They lost Landale, who I like. They lost Whitmore to House's Wizards.
- [56:42]
B
Let's go, Whitmore.
- [56:43]
A
And sadly they lost Fred Van Vliet. And I think that's the question with this over under is I am old school. I still believe point guards kind of matter and this seems like a high number and a really good conference for a team that I have no idea who's going to be handling the ball for them against pressure in crunch time situations, who's going to be making sure people get the ball properly. I talked about this with Goldsberry last week. Like the. There's some stagnation toilet bowl offense potential with this team. 52 seemed high. Zach, what'd you think?
- [57:20]
C
The Van Vliet injury is a killer. Amen. Thompson, Reed shepherd, you know, they'll get their turns. We'll see how that goes. I think it'll be, I think they're, I think game to game, their floor is really high because their defense is going to be so good, their rebounding is going to be so good, and they're going to play super hard every single night. I'm worried about Eason missing games because he misses games every year. Van Vliet's already out. Finney Smith has had health issues in the off season. Durant generally checks in at like 60.
- [57:53]
A
Durant was in the 2007 draft?
- [57:55]
B
Yeah.
- [57:56]
A
Were you married yet?
- [57:57]
B
No.
- [57:58]
A
How many wives ago was that?
- [58:00]
B
That's not funny. I've only been married to one wife, but I took my time. That's why I wasn't married in 2007.
- [58:07]
A
I thought it was kind of funny.
- [58:08]
C
52 and a half is a big number. I'm surprised it didn't move a little bit more with Van Vliet's injury.
- [58:13]
A
Me too.
- [58:14]
C
And I am going under on the Rockets.
- [58:16]
B
Oh, I wanted to be the first one to say under on the Rockets. I'll be the second one to say under on the Rockets. That's the case. That's the case.
- [58:22]
C
I think they're going to be like 50 and 30, 49 and 33, 48 and 34 I but I'm going under. That's a big number.
- [58:28]
B
Just tell me who they're going to acquire for the Fev spot. They. They need to, they need a body.
- [58:33]
C
It's the wild card. They could make any kind of trade they want.
- [58:35]
A
Make your case for your team with this in this spot.
- [58:38]
B
Well, I do think that CJ McCollum would be kind of an incredible replacement for. For FPV. I think it's like an 85 cents on the dollar kind of thing. I had to shout out my guy Ben Standing, who threw that at me. He's like, why wouldn't Houston grab cj? I was like, you know what? That's a goddamn good point. The other thing, the reason to be concerned about this number is because their coach is just a monster and they're good. You would worry looking at this team coming in with the FEV injury and say the chemistry piece of this is going to be funky. Are they going to be like Minnesota a 500 team for a little while until they figure it out? Not with Imei. I think. I think they're going to come in prepared.
- [59:17]
C
Are you. Are you sending out VanVleet in this McCollum trade? Just cold hearted like thanks for your cold hearted.
- [59:22]
A
It's the rehab house is just ice cold when it comes to trades.
- [59:27]
B
Ask him about Isaiah Thomas.
- [59:29]
C
Yeah, that's fair.
- [59:30]
B
I mean this is the NBA 1.
- [59:32]
A
To 10 scale with the 10 being trading Isaiah Thomas when he had a hurt hip. That was just fucking brutal. I didn't feel good about that.
- [59:39]
B
Houston wants to win the title. They had, they, they acquired Kevin Durant. How many more years is Kevin Durant going to be effective?
- [59:48]
A
So the case for the over 52 if you're going to make it, Thompson would have to go make the leap that everyone's been.
- [59:57]
C
He's making a leap.
- [59:58]
A
But I'm saying like a leap leap.
- [60:01]
C
Like reliable 18 to 22.4.
- [60:04]
A
We'd have to be like holy shit. This guy's turned into I think a pretty amazing two way player. But the other thing is defense is good with the over unders. I was like if you're reliable. Defense night tonight. Over 82 games. It's usually a decent indicator with the overs.
- [60:19]
C
And I think Sengun goes up a notch this year too.
- [60:22]
A
Eurobasket, you wouldn't do it.
- [60:25]
C
What? I wouldn't watch it.
- [60:26]
A
You weren't watching the Eurobasket pay per views. You were just highlight.
- [60:30]
C
I don't need another streaming service but I think Shengun is still has untapped stuff.
- [60:35]
A
House didn't watch it. He just went on NBA Reddit a couple times and watched highlights of Good enough. That's it? That was all you had?
- [60:41]
C
Good enough.
- [60:42]
A
Oh, legacy makeover.
- [60:45]
B
Oh, my.
- [60:46]
C
Oh, I'll be where. We're doing it, aren't we? You're. We're doing it. We're just going to dive right in and do, do, do the thing.
- [60:52]
A
If they make the Finals this year with. Without Van Vliet and Durant's the centerpiece of this. Super happy. It's, it's, it's a. This is like the last thing that could shift anything for him, I think, because I think people have decided one way or another on him. If you year for the camp, like, I think you and I are in, in house where it's like, we actually think this guy's better than people realize. His career was better in 17 and 18 on Golden State, he actually was fucking unbelievable. That 14 MVP season, all the scoring stuff. I think he's the best pure scoring forward of all time. The LeBron fans will debate that because they'll be like, well, LeBron has the most points. I'm just saying, like, just from getting two points, I think he's the surest bet we've ever had at the forward position. And yet there's all the other stuff that we don't need to go into and all the baggage and how unhappy the Phoenix thing was, how unhappy the Brooklyn thing became. 2016, OKC up 3:1 in that series, blowing it. 2014, not being able to get over the hump. There's a lot of ways you can ding him, but if he takes Houston to the Finals as their best guy, that's, that's like an unbelievable new wrinkle to this.
- [62:04]
C
Look, we could do three hours. We could.
- [62:07]
A
We probably will at some point.
- [62:08]
C
Reconstructing Kevin Durant's career or going through the alternate realities of Kevin Durant's career after that 2016 season, including one where maybe he goes and saves the Wizards.
- [62:17]
A
I would say he said the most sliding doors of any NBA player of this century. Even if you start with the Seattle thing, just him moving and just having that nucleus, he's probably still there now in the Seattle SuperSonics.
- [62:29]
C
And I think he and his people were caught off guard by. And I don't think they should have been. But just like the perception that the warriors championships count as like half championships, like, he's just never going to get the credit that a two time Finals MVP should for those two seasons, because they. The deck was stacked.
- [62:48]
A
Yeah.
- [62:49]
C
And he's been searching for Brooklyn, Phoenix, and, like, you know, it just hasn't worked. And he's part of the reason it hasn't worked. Like, he's been awesome, but he's like, the mood of those teams has not been very happy.
- [63:03]
A
Anything to add, House?
- [63:04]
B
No, I agree.
- [63:05]
A
He turned down your team, like, seven different times.
- [63:08]
C
You didn't even take the calls.
- [63:10]
B
Didn't take the calls. Zach knows I didn't have to say it. Yeah. I mean, you can understand why franchise in Washington finally has a good front office.
- [63:18]
A
Have you decided on kd or could he do anything with the rest of his career that would change anything in your head?
- [63:23]
B
I feel like there's two more years. It's this year and next, and let's see what happens.
- [63:28]
A
I'm excited just to have him have all the Jalen Green possessions from last year just in my head with the Rockets. Just give him all of the Jalen Green dribbling the ball up for 15 seconds and doing some sort of Jalen Green play. That'll be fun. Oops, sorry.
- [63:46]
C
So are you. Are you re. Are you reigniting your feud with Jalen Green? Is that what's happening right now?
- [63:50]
A
No, I'm just excited to see Kevin Duran.
- [63:52]
C
Are you going under? What's your call?
- [63:55]
A
I'm a hard under. No, I'm. I'm just under. I. I think this is. There's somewhere in the 48 to 51 range for me, but I think them going 53 and 29 or higher without Van Vuitt seems insane to me in this conference. They're in the East. More of an argument. Zach, I asked Goldsberry this last week west teams you'd want to be the next five years. OKC and San Antonio are 12 in some order, correct?
- [64:25]
C
Yeah, I mean, without. Without thinking about it. It's hard to beat. It's hard to beat.
- [64:29]
A
Those two are the top two. House, you agree? Okc, San Antonio, you want to be. You want to have those rosters and those assets over anybody else?
- [64:36]
B
Okay.
- [64:37]
A
Does Houston have a case for the third spot?
- [64:39]
C
This is a great question.
- [64:41]
A
I gave you Houston, Denver, Minnesota.
- [64:44]
B
Minnesota is the one that I think is the closest for me. So I think.
- [64:49]
C
Anthony, I think it has that blink test, as you like to say. I think it has to be Houston.
- [64:54]
A
Because of the picks.
- [64:55]
C
The picks and Amen Thompson. Like, just give me all the Amen.
- [64:58]
A
Thompson stock and the trade flexibility. Yeah, I think we all agree. All right. San Antonio 43 and a half is the over under? There was some action on this. This was 44 and a half last week. It dropped plus 450 for the division. Hold that thought. 35 to 1 for the conference, 65 to 1 for the title, minus 166 for the playoffs. They won 34 games last year even though Wemby did not play after the All Star break. They added Lou Cornette and Kelly Olenek. They added Dylan Harper, the second pick in the draft. They added Carter Bryant and they lost CP3. Mamu, who I know you love Branham. They have new coach Mitch Johnson. Fox is out to start the season. So the case here would be, are these guys 10 wins better than last season? What do you think house? Are they 10 wins better just right.
- [65:54]
B
Out of the box? Nope, I don't think so. It's asking a lot with the injury uncertainty and I don't feel like we're completely in the clear with injury uncertainty with this team. Like the way they're building. Wemby looks unbelievable.
- [66:09]
A
So is that a Wemby injury certainty?
- [66:11]
B
It's just across the board.
- [66:12]
A
You're just nervous for him. Just perennially.
- [66:14]
B
Yes, I'm going to be until we get 70 games from him. Give me a nice, nice, easy, reliable 70 and then, you know, then we can build from there after what happened. So. And the Fox thing is, is a bummer also. 10 wins is just a bridge too far for me. And I think the west. This is a function of how competitive the west is. I only have like one team dropping out of the top 10. One team moving into the top 10. The spurs, ain't it. So it's an under for me.
- [66:45]
C
Seclo over, over. 43 and a half over. I don't even like. I just think Wembanyama is incredible and he's going to be. I mean what's the. At worst, the sixth or seventh best player in the NBA this year? Top 10 defense all by himself. The Fox thing makes me nervous. The Fox injury was my only pause. The only reason I even thought about this. Like you can say, well, do they have enough shooting around Wemban? A fair question. How does Fox, Harper, Castle 3 ball handlers who are shaky 3 point shooters? How does that all fit? Sohan is another non shooter. I think the cornet thing is a massively underrated upgrade for their team. Olenek can help their team. I just. But to me it comes down to I just think this dude is so goddamn good and their supporting cast is good enough that I, I can get to 44, 45 wins.
- [67:33]
A
I'm over best big men year three. Wow. Duncan won the title in year two. Kareem also won the title in year two. Hakeem lost the finals in year two. So these are all things that happened the first three years of someone's career. Dave Cowan's year three MVP, 68 wins Eastern Conference finals. Shaq, year three, 57 wins, made the finals. David Robinson. Year three was his famous fantasy season. House 23 and 12 with 6.8 stocks, blocks and steals combined. Moses 49 wins, Eastern Conference finals. The only two. Yao had 51 wins. The only two year three guys out of the great centers, Ewing and Dwight, where nothing happened. We had him on a TV last night as we watched football. And I just think it's indisputable that he looks way better than he did as a rookie. That he moves better. All the shit that he's doing with.
- [68:31]
B
He's a tiny bit heavier. He's a tiny bit.
- [68:34]
A
He doesn't look like a. A baby deer running around in the woods that's falling over half the time. Like he doesn't. He's just moving fluidly. And there's some stuff he's added. Like he has this crazy two hand shack dunk now where he thrusts his chest and groin into the guy's face.
- [68:52]
C
Basically rusting groins.
- [68:54]
A
Yeah, it's been a.
- [68:55]
C
There's been a lot of innuendos, you know.
- [68:57]
B
No, no, no.
- [68:58]
C
He's French.
- [68:59]
B
What do you expect?
- [68:59]
A
Yeah, the three point shot looks more fluid. I'm with you. I think he. I think he might be actually awesome. Like he's 12 to 1 the MVP. I think it's like a real.
- [69:10]
B
Awesome.
- [69:10]
C
He's already awesome.
- [69:12]
A
I'm saying like MVP conversation. 12 to 1 awesome.
- [69:15]
C
He's in the MVP conversation.
- [69:17]
A
I said this last week on my pod.
- [69:19]
C
It's like people are keep saying like, well, if things go right, he could.
- [69:21]
A
Get in the fringe of.
- [69:22]
C
No, he's in.
- [69:23]
A
He's going to be in the mvp. He's one of the best six players in the league. So to me it's an automatic over. But we didn't mention one thing. You skipped over it because you mentioned Cornett and Olenek. And I think that's going to be really important that they actually have competent big guys that can play with him, that can come in when he's missing a game.
- [69:39]
C
Whatever.
- [69:41]
A
I was thinking of a nickname for them. House Cornet. Olenek.
- [69:45]
B
Olenek.
- [69:46]
A
I can offer you White Castles, Cracker Barrels or the Mayonnaise men. I like the mayonnaise men, huh? Or just the Mayo.
- [69:56]
C
Man, you're so sad that Cornet's not on the Celtics. Are you over it? Are you?
- [70:01]
A
Well, not only. I mean, my dad has really been inconsolable, but he was also like a great locker room, like really beloved personality.
- [70:08]
C
We just think gestures on the court after random events.
- [70:11]
A
A great teammate.
- [70:12]
C
Even the teammates were like, I don't know where, like what that signifies.
- [70:15]
A
That's another thing. The Spurs, I think there's, I think the chemistry is going to be awesome. I agree, but we didn't mention one thing and I think it's really important and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. And I think people just assumed he wasn't going to be impactful this year, myself included. But watching some of the preseason, this is the only preseason team that I've actually watched multiple times. Plus reading the stuff about the team and the quotes from people, I think Harper's going to be good right away. I think he's going to be actually impactful. And when you watch him and he's, you know, he's a kid, he was a freshman in college last year. There's a comfort and an ease with how he plays that you just see immediately. He really knows where to go. He's got, he's patient already. He's big. He's not like this, you know, 19 year old guard coming in who's like, oh man, when he grows into his body, like he has the fucking body already. He's lefty. And I think there's something really special there potentially with him. And granted I've only watched him a little bit, but to me, that is the X factor. I'm already counting in Wemby. It's the Harper piece, that's fine.
- [71:18]
B
And I'll just, I'm, I'm content with waiting to see it. I want to say out loud, I know that Wemby played over 70 games his rookie year and then 46 last year. I don't need people saying, hey, you played 70 well. I want to see it post this kind of injury.
- [71:34]
A
He had a major medical issue and he's gigantic.
- [71:36]
B
That's what this is, is about. And I'll, I'll reserve judgment on Dylan.
- [71:40]
A
Harper, which I also, I think there's a castle. Everybody forgot about me. And I've worked really hard on my game and I'm really good too.
- [71:49]
B
I don't think we, we forgot about him. He won rookie of the year. It's just like not.
- [71:53]
A
That wasn't, it wasn't this team. You talk about Wemby, you talk about Dylan Harper, you talk about all the bench ads and nobody's like, oh, they also have Castle, who was the best rookie last year.
- [72:02]
C
I think this is like a great landing spot for Dylan Harper. Everyone is fixated on like Fox and how does he fit timetables. Like he can if when Fox is back he, you can play Dylan Harper 15 minutes a game. You don't have to force feed him anything. You don't have to over overdo it. You can, you can stagger the minutes so that Fox is out, he's in and Wemby's in at the same time. Because you're going to stagger, fight and like make his life a little. I think it's a great spot for him. And I just want to say, did you guys see the highlight of Carter, Bryant, Chase down block attempt where he's like, it's in the flow of the game and he jumps and he's, his hand is above the square measuring.
- [72:38]
B
Yeah, I saw that.
- [72:39]
C
Like if this guy can give them anything on offense, he is such a freak and such an elite defender already. Like, I, I, I'm tempering my excitement.
- [72:49]
A
Well, that's okay, that's fine.
- [72:51]
B
I'm gonna lose. You guys are gonna win this, this one.
- [72:54]
A
And I'm not just a hard over, I'm a fully erect over.
- [72:57]
B
I want you to know the market moved like they were 44 and a half and people thought that was too rich. So that's it settled at 43 and a half and I'm just, you know, I'm going to just temper my enthusiasm.
- [73:09]
A
There's a couple, there's one fandom bet I wanted to mention. They're 3 to 1 to win 50 games. And I think, I think of all the teams that we're not thinking of as 50 win teams. This is the team that has the ceiling for me because like you just mentioned Carter, Bryant, they have multiple athletes at these wing spots. I always think about it like if, if you're just on another team and you're looking at the schedule like, oh, where are we going this week on our road trip? And you, San Antonio is one of the teams. You're like, fuck, this is a.
- [73:40]
C
And they got, they got, they got stuff to trade. They got anything they need to trade.
- [73:44]
A
They have stuff to trade, which was the last piece of this house. They have all their own firsts. They have first swap with Atlanta this year, which might not matter. They have Atlanta's unprotected next year. They got Boston, Dallas stuff. They have a swap with Sacramento and 31.
- [73:59]
C
Anything you got with Sacramento is always a golden chip.
- [74:02]
A
And they have some contract stuff to, you know, like they like, they can put like Barnes with Keldon Johnson if you want for Sal. Like, we'll talk about it. Like, they could, they could pretty quickly add up to like a 40 to 45. Like this could be a marketing team.
- [74:19]
C
This could be on the list. They're on my marketing list.
- [74:22]
B
That's a good one.
- [74:22]
A
This could be an out of nowhere Jalen Brown team. I mean, like, who knows?
- [74:25]
C
You can't even pencil in a better fit than Markkin and Wembanyama. It's just if you have Markkin and Wembanyama Fox, you are now loaded with like three $50 million plus salaries.
- [74:35]
A
Harper was the one that flipped it for me though. You just, you know, like sometimes, you know, with this shit, that guy belongs on a basketball court with good players. I think there's something with him and Wemby that they, I mean, them get. They didn't expect when they traded for Fox. They didn't know they were getting the second pick, right? I don't think they trade for Fox if they know they're getting the second pick. I think they probably saved the assets, even though that was a pretty fair trade for them. All right, next team.
- [75:01]
B
Wow.
- [75:01]
A
If you thought our boners weren't in full swing. The Dallas Mavericks, over 40 and a half. They are plus 8. 50 for the division. They are plus 108 for the playoffs, which might be my single favorite bet on the board. Not the tip. My hand. They're 39, 43. Last year they lost Spencer Dinwiddie and they added D' Angelo Russell. They don't have Kyrie for probably two thirds of the season. They added Cooper Flagg, who has a chance, Zach, to be the most impactful American rookie since Anthony Davis. And I think that's in play and I think it's going to happen.
- [75:36]
C
Okay. Over, under, just flat out you're asking.
- [75:42]
A
Me, well, where do you want to start?
- [75:46]
C
This was the one that I struggled with the most. I mentioned to you after I left last night when. Before the commanders blew that game. Sorry.
- [75:53]
B
Come on. I thought we were new pod friends.
- [75:55]
C
Here that I was going to go revisit. Just make sure Adam locked in. This was the team that I was struggling the most with because it's a 40 and a half. It's like right, obviously right in the middle flag is Going to be awesome. They're a weird team like that. Trends super big. You know.
- [76:11]
A
I mean they're just openly not starting a guard.
- [76:14]
C
Yeah. Last night they're like, what if. Yeah, what would it look like if we just don't even start d' Angelo Russell and we don't have Kyrie Irving and we don't really have another. What did they do?
- [76:20]
A
Flag Washington, Gafford Davis.
- [76:23]
C
It was a gigantic lineup.
- [76:24]
A
Yeah. Everybody was like six, seven and up.
- [76:27]
C
And Clay is still here and got, you know, it's. It's a strange team. I am going under on 48 and a half.
- [76:35]
B
Okay.
- [76:35]
A
Stunned.
- [76:36]
C
Well, can I.
- [76:38]
A
You know what? You're not allowed on Cooper Flag Island. No, not.
- [76:43]
C
Not everything can be an island.
- [76:45]
A
You're not an island.
- [76:47]
C
Could be something with a limited population in a small territory.
- [76:50]
A
It's fair.
- [76:51]
C
All right. Here. Here's my case for this. These are Anthony Davis's games played.
- [76:56]
B
This is exactly the right 62.
- [76:58]
C
This from 2020 on. 62, 36, 40, 56, 76, 51, 42. If it's 55 games or 50 games they're going under like they just. With Kyrie missing two thirds of the season. Nothing about Flag love Flag Love their centers. Love the PJ Washington deal. Love some of their depth teaches shout out Najee Marshall. I like Max Christie. Blah. If they just don't get enough games out of Kyrie coming off a massive injury and AD who I just read the game logs. I I 41 wins in the west is a. Is a bridge just a teeny bit too far for me.
- [77:34]
B
Wow.
- [77:35]
A
Boy you when you're talking about your concerns about Anthony Davis's durability that's just right in the house wheelhouse. I think he was the first person ever to express concerns in America fully healthy.
- [77:48]
C
And I don't know if you can count on Kyrie. They're more a next year team than it is this year team because of Kyrie. Kyrie changes their team. Obviously fully healthy. They're a scary motherfucking team in the playoffs. I'm just talking about getting through 82 games and winning more than half your games. It's. It's a. It's. If I have to get plus there's a sneaky like if this season is not going great and we do have injuries, this is the one of the only years we control our first round pick in the next half decade. So I'm going. I'm just enough is pulling me to under.
- [78:19]
B
Well, we know that they'll. They'll Gladly tank down the stretch. I mean we have recent memory to look at for that exercise. They. That's how they got Derek Lively.
- [78:30]
C
Man.
- [78:30]
A
This one is.
- [78:31]
B
Is. Is indeed the most difficult really probably across the whole.
- [78:37]
A
Because of the Davis thing.
- [78:38]
B
Because the. Yeah. I mean we. Anthony, like if I told you AD.
- [78:41]
A
Was playing 65 games so you would go over.
- [78:43]
B
You wouldn't even think. No, not even think twice.
- [78:45]
C
He is played 65 games once since 2017. 18.
- [78:52]
A
So what are you doing?
- [78:53]
B
House over. Because 40 and a half this team with the size and the wings and the versatility, you're asking for a 500 team to get to the over. And I think Cooper flag with 45 Anthony Davis games is enough for the over. I also think here's the thing that. That I. That I really regret. Karma. The basketball gods should be on the side of an under. Should be this team sucking ass this upcoming season as the. Because they. I mean but then they're in the.
- [79:29]
C
Lottery again with another chance and they.
- [79:32]
B
Get in with that chair. They get the 14 pick.
- [79:34]
C
That's.
- [79:34]
B
That's the karma that the basketball gods should reward.
- [79:38]
A
Counter. Great trade with. They traded Anthony Luca for Anthony Davis and Cooper Flagg.
- [79:45]
B
Fuck me.
- [79:45]
A
I don't know. Maybe Nico knew what he was doing. He saw the vision.
- [79:49]
C
You see it?
- [79:49]
A
He had the vision.
- [79:50]
B
This total dropping from 41 and a half to 48 and a half put it right into my kisser. And it's a 41 win team. So I'll take the over.
- [80:01]
A
I mentioned earlier the teams that the people look at the schedule and they're like, fuck, we're playing that team. I think Dallas is another example. This is just a long, scary team that's going to try really hard. Flag tries as hard as any rookie.
- [80:16]
C
Week club in the week. So much it hurts me to go under. For that reason. For that reason.
- [80:19]
A
I just think they're going to have an intensity that's going to cover up some of like, okay, Davis isn't playing for four weeks. They're actually probably fine if he doesn't play for a couple of weeks because they actually have big men depth. It's like, all right, fine. I guess we'll just play Gafford and Lively with Cooper Flag at power four. We'll be okay.
- [80:39]
C
I think Lively is being slept on as like a potential leap guy. I just the strangeness plus the injury risk plus the west just being loaded. I'm going like slight, slight under.
- [80:49]
B
It's very. It's very fair Case who's going to shoot Threes on this team and knock them down.
- [80:55]
C
Clay.
- [80:55]
B
Well, that's that. Right.
- [80:58]
A
Don't forget about first three months of the season. Dlo.
- [81:01]
B
I would like.
- [81:01]
A
This is what he does. I am.
- [81:02]
B
I'm okay with forgetting about him.
- [81:03]
C
You going over?
- [81:04]
A
I'm going hard over.
- [81:06]
B
Yeah. He's.
- [81:06]
A
I think this team's going to be good. I already bet on this. Is Anthony Davis the 21st century's most frustrating superstar? Or would you pick someone else? Granted he's won a title just in.
- [81:17]
B
Basketball or in other sports. Oh, nobody's more frustrating than Joel Embiid.
- [81:22]
C
Oh, good.
- [81:22]
A
Good counter.
- [81:23]
B
Nobody's.
- [81:24]
C
Oh, you know what? That just. Okay. Yeah.
- [81:26]
A
I was going to.
- [81:26]
C
I was going to nominate Harden, but he's won multiple. He's one ambp.
- [81:30]
B
Rather fair and he's made it to a conference.
- [81:33]
A
It's Joe Allenby. You know, we. We talked about Dylan Harper. We talked. Yeah. Ben Simmons is up there too.
- [81:42]
C
He made an all NBA team.
- [81:43]
B
No, Gilbert Arenas just got hurt. Gilbert Arenas seemed like frustrating.
- [81:46]
A
As good as Kobe for like a year and a half.
- [81:48]
B
No. Maybe for three months.
- [81:52]
A
Flag and Harper. I just wanted to say this, that this draft is night and day from last year where last year some of the guys like, like Reed shepherd was the third pick and just was like a G league player. We don't know if he's good or not. This year's draft, Flag has a chance to be like a transformative star. I think Harper is really special. Edge Comb is going to be winning Twitter and NBA Reddit and Instagram. Ace Bailey. We are fascinated by Houses. Dude. Trey Johnson.
- [82:22]
C
Trey Johnson.
- [82:23]
B
Yeah. He's going to be good. God damn. We got the.
- [82:25]
A
He's going to be a really.
- [82:26]
B
But come on.
- [82:26]
A
He's going to be an excellent score.
- [82:28]
C
Did you.
- [82:28]
B
He's going to be good.
- [82:29]
A
Then all these other like wings, these athletic wings that some of these teams have. I don't know. I think this draft's awesome.
- [82:34]
C
Did you intentionally skip over Bill Simmons? 2028 Olympian. Con. Can I just. Just left him. Is. Is he. Is he above this discussion?
- [82:42]
A
I'm trying. I. I talked to my lawyers and they said only talk about Conder in the Charlotte part because it's getting weird. So I, I try. I'm just trying to obey that. Yeah. He's another one though. He's gonna play 35 minutes a game.
- [82:53]
B
I think the kid in Toronto is going to be sick.
- [82:56]
A
This is like has a really. Has a chance to be an all time. We'll look back six years from now and be like, oh, my God. And we've had a couple of those drafts over the years, but I think this one will be a really good one. Memphis 39 and a half. Dropped was 40 and a half. Went to third, nine half. They've had some injuries. They traded Desmond Bain. They lost Cole Anthony. They lost Luke Kennard. They lost Huff. I know you're a Huff guy. I like Huff. Zach's already running out of steam. We got like 20 teams left.
- [83:28]
C
I'm going. I don't. Not enthusiastic about Jay. Huff mentions Ty Jerome.
- [83:33]
A
They added him.
- [83:34]
C
Yeah.
- [83:35]
A
KCP.
- [83:36]
C
Yep.
- [83:36]
A
Landau, Cedric Coward, Furnace Guy. They're plus 154 for the playoffs, plus 100 for the plan, which might be the bet of the year. And they have some injuries coming out of the gate and John Moran's already hurt. Should be okay at some point. First couple weeks and.
- [84:00]
C
Yeah, not just some injuries. Like, it's not great when all your centers are hurt except for Jock Landau.
- [84:07]
A
Like, Edie's out for a while, and it's one of those where it's like, no, he should be back in December. It's like, Willie, he's.
- [84:12]
C
Brandon Clark had, like, another thing, another surgery. Triple J's out for a bit. Yeah, it's not. It's not great. The number is like, this is on its, on the surface, a disrespectful number to a team that has won, like, 48 to 50 whatever games in the last few years. And they just seem to win. They just seem to punch above their weight in the regular season until, of course, they fell apart last year. Could not beat any good teams down the stretch, plummeted down the standings, et cetera, et cetera. I think this is a really good number by Vegas. Hats off to Vegas because, like, 39 and a half. Like, oh, that's. They can't even. They can be under.500 and go over this number. I think that's appropriate given their injury situation. This was a very tough one. This was another one of my very toughest, toughest picks.
- [84:53]
B
Has totally agree with Zach. I'm going to play over. Because this team goes so goddamn hard at home. They play their asses off for that Memphis crowd. They have a chip on their shoulder perpetually. I think. Say his name properly. Tomas Ayasolomos.
- [85:11]
C
Isolo.
- [85:12]
B
See that?
- [85:13]
C
Tuomas. It seems tricky.
- [85:15]
B
Isolo. Isolo. I think Coach Isolo. See, they lost a defensive identity. That was part of what contributed to them sucking ass down the stretch. They couldn't stop anybody. Their Games, their overs in the last, like 45 games. Money in the bank. I love playing Memphis overs down the stretch last year. I do think that, you know, if they can weather the storm with these injuries and have any injury luck whatsoever. When Triple J and Chris Vernon made this case, he makes it every single time we give him a microphone. When Triple J and John Morant play together, they win basketball games. And so what's our over under for number of games that those two guys play? That sets the. That sets the.
- [85:58]
C
It's a fair question. That's a big question.
- [86:00]
B
That sets the. The.
- [86:01]
C
The.
- [86:01]
B
The. The total number. So we're asking for them to win half their games. I think they're going to win half their games.
- [86:08]
C
What would that number be? Over under on how many games? Both Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr play? 55 and a half. I mean, I don't even.
- [86:16]
A
105.
- [86:16]
C
No, but I'm saying together they both play in the same game.
- [86:19]
B
There's 82 games. And. And how many of those 82 do those guys play? 40.
- [86:23]
C
You think it's in the 40s?
- [86:24]
A
Five.
- [86:25]
B
See, I think it's worth. I think 60ish is in play. So I think this is why I'm taking the slide over here.
- [86:30]
A
But you guys can't. You made the whole Anthony Davis case. And then now, now these two are.
- [86:36]
C
Sent to over at 55 and a half. I thought it was low. You're going lower than me.
- [86:39]
A
Okay. I just don't trust the health of those.
- [86:42]
C
We're doing over unders within the over unders.
- [86:45]
A
It's an over under pod at the Ed thing I thought was really bad. Yeah, because I feel like that's a half the year. And look, Bain was really good last year. I mean, he's a top 40 to 50 player in the league, wherever you have him on your list. And they traded him for a bunch of, you know, kcp.
- [87:05]
C
I don't know what happened in Orlando last year where, like, literally no one could shoot, including the guy that they got to shoot. KCP is like a solid fifth starter. Like, I feel good about his fit on the team. I like Scottie Pippen Jr. And Ty Jerome off the bench. That's like a good stabilizing bench back court. I'm going over with House here. I think the number just got too low. I'm going over.
- [87:25]
A
Okay. I went. I'm only going under because I felt like San Antonio, Dallas and Memphis. You can't do all three overs. And I already did my overs on San Antonio Dallas, I don't trust. I don't trust the health stuff. I thought the. The. The last 25, 30 games of last year were so bad. Maybe more of an indication of who they are.
- [87:47]
B
And. Well, they fired the coach.
- [87:49]
A
I get it.
- [87:51]
C
There's also some, like, if this becomes the year from hell 25 games into the season, what do you. What do you do about that? If you're the Grizzlies and they gave. There's some year for. There's some year from hell potential with the starting off with this many, I.
- [88:06]
A
Mean, I could argue you already have the year from hell with all the injuries they've had two years ago. Yeah, that's true. I didn't. The Jaren Jackson extension was pricey. I know they had to do it, but he's sick.
- [88:19]
B
He's sick. He's a sick ballplayer when he plays.
- [88:21]
A
I love him. Can you give me seven rebounds a game?
- [88:24]
B
That's not his game.
- [88:25]
A
Okay, well, who's going to rebound for this team this year?
- [88:29]
B
Whenever. Those. Those big guys.
- [88:31]
C
My boy, John Conchar.
- [88:33]
A
Yeah. I couldn't get there.
- [88:34]
B
Santi.
- [88:35]
A
I look forward to them starting out this season well. And then Verna sending me long, angry texts back.
- [88:41]
C
They do. I did. I went deep enough into the Memphis weeds that I looked at their first 15 games. It's a pretty soft first 15 games, which is another reason I went over. I was like, they should be able to survive this being like 7 and 8 after this. This amount of time.
- [88:55]
A
We're going to take a break and then we're going to talk about the most entertaining team in this conference from a conversation standpoint, the New Orleans Pelicans.
- [89:01]
C
Oh, my God.
- [89:02]
A
This episode is brought to you by SAP. You know that feeling when running a business gets too demanding? The pressure to make everything happen all at once is immense. Like it's 4th and 1 and you just need that last yard to seal the win. Stop stressing so much with the AI powered capabilities of SAP. You can streamline costs, connect with new suppliers, and manage payroll even when your business is being pulled in different directions to deliver a quality product at a fair price while paying your people what they're worth so your business can stay unfazed. Learn more@SAP.com Uncertainty There are so many ways to save on cozy fall meals at Whole Foods Market. Save daily with low prices on no antibiotics ever. Meats like chicken breast, ground beef, Atlantic salmon, and more from 365 brand. They have yellow low price signs on comforting favorites like Whole Foods market rotisserie chicken and tempting mini croissants made without bleached or bromated flour. Shop low prices and quality at Whole Foods Market, in store or online. This episode is brought to you by Velveeta. Game day is all about the tailgate spread. Listen, if you're gonna have friends over, you absolutely 100% have to have a lot of things for them to eat. Everyone gets hungry, they can say they're not gonna eat. But guess what? If you lay out the right kind of spread and you have some good cheesy creamy melty dip with some good crackers, some chips, they're probably gonna eat it. So why not do creamy shells and cheese, melty Velveeta blocks and cheesy jarred quesos? I don't know. Why wouldn't you? They're taking down one taste bud at a time. Do yourself a favor, stock up on Velveeta before kickoff. As you could tell from this over unders pod, I love betting NBA futures. One of my favorite things gives you a little stake not just in your team, but you can pick five, six, seven other teams. Just kind of monitor their progress over the six month season. I like doing finals winners. I like doing pairings for the finals. I'm not allowed to bet on any of the awards because I have a vote. But the playoff stuff is really fun. Playing is kind of a fun one. Season leaders. You can bet on stuff like will Wemby have a quadruple double this year? You can bet on that on Fanduel. You can parlay stuff together. I love betting on Steph Curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games. Anyway, we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the Overrunner podcast and then on Thursday night's podcast we are going to be announcing our big super boost for the upcoming season. That will be Friday 10:14 on FanDuel. Be ready. New Orleans Pelicans over 30 and a half. They had the first round pick. It's just gone. They lost it in a crypto scandal.
- [91:49]
B
Where did it go?
- [91:50]
A
They lost it. They invested in aspiration and lost their first round pick.
- [91:54]
B
What's the bushy head guy who's in jail? Sam Friedman.
- [91:57]
A
Yeah.
- [91:57]
B
He took it.
- [91:58]
A
He took it. They. They invested in a movie studio. They went bankrupt. It's just gone.
- [92:03]
B
They're trying to buy trees. They wanted some trees.
- [92:06]
A
No matter what happens with this team, they won't be able to draft to play off their success, which makes them an enticing over for 30 and a half because we've seen this every year. There's two teams that they're not going to tank. Why would we tank? We have nothing to tank for. Let's play hard. Let's try to win. They added Jordan Poole, House's guy, who is actually, like, sneaky good. Last year, Kavan Looney, veteran. Sadiq Bay's back. They drafted Derek Queen, who's already hurt. Jeremiah Ferris, who won't play until about 2030. They lost McCollum, Olenek and Bruce Brown.
- [92:42]
C
That was a. That was a shock. Very pointed shot.
- [92:45]
A
He's 18.
- [92:47]
C
He's playing now. He's going to play now.
- [92:48]
A
Okay, we'll see. The question, Zach, is, could they be this year's 20, 25 Hawks? A team that 20, 25.
- [93:00]
C
Last year's Hawks, this year's Hawks, Last.
- [93:02]
A
Year'S hawks, last year's 24, 25 Hawks.
- [93:05]
C
What happened with them? Why are they.
- [93:06]
A
They didn't have their first round pick and they just gave a shit and tried. And even when Jalen Johnson got hurt, they were like, we're still going to try. We're not going to be resting anybody. We're still going to be going for it. And the addendum to that. Did Skinny Zion suck you in at all?
- [93:22]
C
No.
- [93:22]
A
No.
- [93:23]
C
I mean, it's better than the alternative. But I'm not sitting here like, oh, I saw some photos, pencil in 70 Zion games. Like, I'm going to pencil in. If I'm an optimist, I'm going to pencil in 56 Zion games. Like, that's like, I'm not hoping for anything better than that.
- [93:39]
A
We should have done a games played.
- [93:41]
B
Draft then save it.
- [93:43]
A
Where you, you have a. For Philly. No, we could, we could do that later.
- [93:48]
C
I can't wait for Philly.
- [93:49]
B
You guys, you guys do it.
- [93:50]
C
Well, Herb Jones played 20 last year. Murray played 31. He's going to miss at least a big chunk of this season.
- [93:57]
A
And Murray got hurt right before the season. Didn't work out.
- [94:00]
C
Ingram played 18. Yeah, it was. It was. No, Skinny Zion did not suck me into, like, oh, everything's great now. They figured everything out. But your question is the interesting one. I talk to people around the league. You would think the trade and all the flack they took for it would incentivize them to win, win, win, win, win at all costs. And Willie Green maybe coaching for his job. Win, win, win at all costs. We have to save ourselves from embarrassment as a front office, save our job as A coaching staff, but also the counter is the front office is massively incentivized to show right away that Queen in particular is good. That Queen and fears is good. Do you have, do they, do they Lev. Do they put their thumb on the scale with the coaches of like, you gotta give these guys major rotation roles. Cause we gotta show they're good. Because if they, the more they play, rookies tend to not help you win games. So I think those. It's a fascinating conundrum.
- [94:56]
B
This is another situation where the front office and the coaching staff maybe not on the same page.
- [95:01]
C
Well, maybe the front office is new. They didn't hire the coaching staff.
- [95:04]
B
Great point. Great point.
- [95:06]
A
I mean, Willie making it through last year was kind of a miracle. I certainly didn't agree with him.
- [95:10]
B
They won 49 games the year before that.
- [95:12]
A
I get it.
- [95:13]
C
So Queens hurt to start the year.
- [95:15]
B
Yes.
- [95:15]
C
If they're like a frisky 8 and 9 when he comes back or whatever the timetable is for his return. Does he get gifted 25 minutes a game because he's Derek Wean and we made this massive swing for him, or does Willie Green have the leeway to be like, hey man, sorry, we're kind of rolling. We'll spot you six, seven minutes at the end of the first half and see what goes from there.
- [95:35]
A
You know, House, let me give you the rotation. Missy, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, Poole.
- [95:43]
C
Looney's going to start over. Missy.
- [95:45]
A
Okay.
- [95:46]
C
Which I like. Adult in the room, set screens, get rebounds, make the right reads. I love it.
- [95:50]
A
So Looney, Zion Murphy, Herb Jones and Poole. It's a professional basketball team.
- [95:56]
C
Sure is.
- [95:56]
B
And the guys on the bench, Missy.
- [95:58]
A
Alvarado, Hawkins, who I just continue to like, I would have been trying to trade for him the last two years. Queen when he comes back, Murray, when he comes back, fierce.
- [96:09]
C
I mean, I like, I like Bay.
- [96:12]
A
And Bay, if he's, I haven't seen him yet.
- [96:14]
C
He's playing him, he's playing okay in the like.
- [96:16]
A
That's a lot of basketball players, House.
- [96:17]
B
I agree. I, I, I'll just come out, I'm an over on this team. I think the way the incentives run and you know, Willie Green, they were, they won 49 games two years ago and 42 games the year before that. And that's with all of the Zion, you know, how many games is he playing situation. They have a lot of dudes and they have the capacity to be a pretty intense defensive team. And you're only asking them to win 31 games.
- [96:47]
A
31 and 51 over and you're like this, right? I have a confession. I have two confessions for you guys. I kind of like the Jordan Pool trade. The more I looked at it for Washington for both teams.
- [97:03]
C
Okay. I love it for Washington. I still find it inexplicable for the Pelicans.
- [97:08]
A
I'm going to try to explain it. Are they ever signing a free agent ever in a million years?
- [97:14]
C
Okay, continue.
- [97:17]
A
Poole has this year and then next year. Yeah, Poole I think for the team they have is probably a better fit than expiring CJ McCollum who they're not gonna trade for future pieces any. They already lost their first round pick and then Pool's an expiring a year from now. I thought Poole was really confident last year and House and I talked about him a bunch of times where it was like, this guy's like a good offensive player.
- [97:40]
B
He could help a team down the stretch. He can help a team that needs that a boost scoring wise. You just really have to tell that dude, here's the role. Don't let him think that he's in charge of anything, that there's no big three.
- [97:54]
A
He's not. On T shirts with Zion don't roll.
- [97:57]
B
Say, oh, we're rolling the ball out. Jordan, go ahead and do your. No, no, no.
- [98:01]
C
They also got. They also got Bay in that trade who I.
- [98:06]
A
Who we all liked for a while and then I got him.
- [98:07]
B
I was hoping he was going to be able to play.
- [98:09]
A
I have another confession for you guys. There's a couple Pelicans starting fives I really like. How about center Zion with Murphy, Jones, Hawkins and Poole? I want to see that for five minutes.
- [98:20]
C
The opposing offense is also dying to see that for five.
- [98:23]
A
I just want to see it. I didn't say I was going to win with it. I just thought it'd be entertaining. And then Missy Murphy, Jones, Hawkins and point forward Zion. No guards when they do the point forward Zion thing. That'll be fun.
- [98:34]
C
That's what makes me a little nervous. Is not. We know Zion's health is always going to be an issue. They really need like more point Zion than they've ever needed before with any team. Because you just said I don't want Jordan Poole in charge of the whole machine for too long. No, McCollum gone, Murray gone for at least part of the season. Alvarado is a good backup. Fears is a rookie. Like they're going to need not only Zion to play but to run more of the offense than he's ever run.
- [99:00]
A
Sounds Great. I like when he does that.
- [99:02]
C
Well, does his body like when he does that. Like everything takes a toll.
- [99:05]
A
Right? He's taking things seriously now you're going, you're going playoffs. I am going over 30. I think they win between 31 and 35 games.
- [99:13]
B
Me too. Me too. So you win the. You win the bet, I win the bet.
- [99:17]
C
We are all over. The number is too low, too much talent for this to be 30 and a half one.
- [99:21]
A
Pelicans point quickly. Remember when they had this war chest of picks and we were like, wow, the Pelicans, all these picks, no war chest. The war chest is empty. They have their own first in 28, 32. They have that 26. First is going to Atlanta and then they have a Bucks or New Orleans first. The worst goes to Atlanta. They get to keep the best one in 27.
- [99:51]
C
The thing I have to remind myself, nothing else all the time from that Queen trade that they traded their the best of those two picks to Atlanta is Milwaukee still gets the other one. Like New Orleans just gets nothing. Like Milwaukee gets the lesser of their own. And the Pelicans picks. It's crazy.
- [100:11]
A
The most dumbfounding decision.
- [100:13]
C
Atlanta might get into the lottery with two bites at the apple. Like if the season goes bad.
- [100:19]
A
A major trade piece with that pick. All right, we're going to the Pacific. Oh, yeah. Where the LA Clippers were the second highest favorites in this division. And then LeBron had some back issues and the odds flipped and The Clippers jumped two spots or two wins to 49.5.
- [100:40]
C
They're up to 49 and a half.
- [100:41]
A
They sure are up to 49 and a half.
- [100:44]
C
Nelly.
- [100:45]
A
They are plus 130 for the division. Now they're the favorites. They are 161 for the title, minus 600 for the playoffs. Last year they're 50 and 32. They lost Powell Coffee and Eubanks and added John Collins, Bradley Beal, Brooke Lopez and Chris Paul. They also added a pretty annoying off season scandal that still has not been resolved. Zach, how hilarious would it be if the Clippers won the 2026 title? I'm going to give you some of the things that would happen from that. The Kawhi trade will have worked out. James Harden would get off the hump, Chris Paul would get a ring. Bradley Beal would be a cult hero. And Steve Ballmer would go from embattled Clippers owner Steve Ballmer to an absolutely crazed guy holding the trophy and screaming like a fucking maniac. Those are all things on top of all the other things. Like The Clippers have never made the finals before anyway. I think it would be hilarious.
- [101:43]
B
It's a double legacy button.
- [101:45]
A
It's interesting. It's legacy buttons everywhere.
- [101:47]
B
It's legacy buttons. It's Harden's legacy.
- [101:49]
A
Chris Paul.
- [101:50]
B
It's Kawhi's legacy.
- [101:51]
A
It's Chris Paul getting the Chip Kawhi titles on teams.
- [101:55]
C
Kawhi's legacy is really going to be incredible. Like two time finals MVP and just all the injury, mistime, mystery, controversy.
- [102:09]
A
Arguably should have been the finals MVP for OKC last year.
- [102:13]
C
Wow.
- [102:14]
A
I would have voted for him. I didn't get a vote.
- [102:17]
B
So rude.
- [102:17]
A
Imagine that. 7 SGA votes and vote for Kawhi Leonard.
- [102:23]
C
What about Paul George doesn't even get any votes.
- [102:25]
A
I guess he could have anyway. 49 and a half for the deepest kind of veteranish team in the league seemed low to me. And I'm just a. I have to go over on this. I do that knowing that Kawhi Leonard's on this team. What do you have, Zach?
- [102:48]
C
I mentioned how I went under on the Nuggets because I can't go over on everybody in the West. Yeah, I like all these teams. Love their depth. Harden, love him, hate him. Look forward to his game seven. Shit burgers. Whatever. The dude is a regular season wins machine who plays all the time. Which is. Which is the best possible insurance for whatever happens with Kawhi. Like I. I can at least I know I hand him the offense. They have depth. I was going to go over 48 and a half. If I'm going over 48 and a half, I should go over 49 and a half. I'm over. I'm over the age. Really makes me nervous.
- [103:22]
A
You seem really excited about it.
- [103:23]
C
Like Bogdanovich is already a little banged up. CP's ancient. You know, like it is one of.
- [103:28]
A
Those on paper versus the actual. Because if you go through it's like, well, Chris Paul's over 40. Brooke Lopez kind of looked like, you know, on the. On the last legs of being a productive rotation guy last year.
- [103:42]
C
Zoo Zoo plays every game and plays a ton of tons of minutes this year.
- [103:45]
A
You mean my third team. All NBA.
- [103:47]
B
Yeah.
- [103:47]
A
Pick last year's Zoo.
- [103:48]
C
Perfect spot for.
- [103:49]
B
Deserved it too.
- [103:50]
A
I also think they actually have a little bit of a home court advantage now, which is the opposite of where they've been forever. There's like good energy at these games in the aspiration dome.
- [103:59]
C
A little bit of us against the world energy.
- [104:01]
A
Oh, especially now. I mean the league's trying to bring down The Clippers. What do you have, House?
- [104:07]
B
This team won 51 games in 20, 23, 2450 games last year and a total under 50. Sign me the fuck up. I will take the over. Thank you, sir.
- [104:17]
C
We all went over on the Clippers at 49 and a half. That's not a small number. 49 and a half in the West.
- [104:22]
B
This is with Ty Lu with this group.
- [104:24]
A
This is.
- [104:24]
B
These are professional basketball players. Who's the chump on this team?
- [104:27]
A
Yeah, we don't like the Collins piece. I really like because I always felt like when Kawhi wasn't in there, they always just felt like Batum was the only kind of tall wing with size that they.
- [104:40]
B
That they had shot 40% from three last year, didn't he?
- [104:43]
A
Yeah. And Utah basically to trade Collins because he was too good for them.
- [104:46]
C
He's become the most underrated player in the NBA. I think John Collins is good. I think he's going to be good for the Clippers. Good for the Clippers. Like, I don't think he's. I don't know if he's going to start or come off the bench. They've been a little cagey about that. It seems like he's going to come off the bench. They'll start Derrick Jones Jr. Because they want someone to guard the best wings on the other team and not have that someone be Kawhi, which I get. But he needs to play a lot. John Collins, I think he feels checks a lot of boxes for them. He's. He's wildly underrated. I had Young at least, or Young in his prime at least on this team. He's like a baby.
- [105:16]
A
I had the okc, Denver drop Clippers and then I would add Houston. I would add a 3A, 3B, 3C with Houston, Clippers, Minnesota. And I think Houston can't be in there anymore because the bamboo thing. So I would say Minnesota Clippers 3A, 3B for me.
- [105:33]
C
I'm stunned. Over on the Clippers, I'm stunned.
- [105:35]
A
They have so much talent.
- [105:36]
C
It's a big number and they're so old.
- [105:38]
B
They were really good in the playoffs also. I got to hit the legacy button for Brad Beal. This is a chance for Brad.
- [105:43]
C
They were really good in the playoffs.
- [105:46]
B
I know that the way that. The way the matchup wise. I like the way that they matched up. I understand the.
- [105:51]
A
I thought they played Denver great.
- [105:53]
C
They did.
- [105:56]
A
You get no flowers, but they should have won in six.
- [105:58]
C
Yeah, well, they didn't you get no flowers for me for that would you embarrass yourself in game seven.
- [106:03]
A
Hot take. I thought they were the third best team in the league last year. I really did.
- [106:08]
C
And yet would you ever trust them in a game seven on the.
- [106:10]
A
I wouldn't trust them at all, but I think they can win 50 games.
- [106:12]
B
We all make money that way. We wait till them to get to game seven, then we make money.
- [106:15]
C
Look, I took the over, so I'm just stunned. No one went just aggressively like too old scandal under boom. No, I thought there was like a bus sitting there for you to just like make fun of the Clippers for.
- [106:26]
A
10 minutes with the way they care about the environment through aspiration.
- [106:30]
B
That's it. All the trees.
- [106:32]
A
All the trees. Trees have been planted. Thanks to the Clippers.
- [106:35]
B
Thank you, pal.
- [106:36]
C
You love the wall.
- [106:37]
A
Do you like the wall?
- [106:38]
B
The wall's good.
- [106:38]
A
The wall's good.
- [106:39]
B
We went over on the Clippers, all three of us.
- [106:41]
C
Remember when he Balmer flew the wall, the core, the inner circle of the wall to Denver for Game 7.
- [106:47]
A
It's a sad flight home.
- [106:49]
B
Yeah.
- [106:50]
A
No, I think, look, a lot would have to go wrong for this to go under.
- [106:55]
C
I don't think that much has to go wrong.
- [106:57]
A
But I'm saying like you'd have a 30 game Kawhi season.
- [107:00]
C
Okay.
- [107:01]
A
You would have to have Chris Paul and Lopez are just washed. You would have to have Beal being 10 games in. Like I signed here because I thought I'd be a bigger part of everything that's happening. And it's. I guess I'll have to get used to my new role.
- [107:15]
C
I'm waiting for you to say something that's like wildly implied, plausible.
- [107:20]
A
All right, I'm going over.
- [107:21]
C
I'm over anyway.
- [107:22]
B
You said over. Over.
- [107:25]
A
Zubots would have to not be as durable. I don't know.
- [107:27]
B
Zoobox getting hurt this up that for sure. Undoubtedly without.
- [107:31]
A
I just think they have defense.
- [107:33]
B
Pick and roll with Harden was awesome.
- [107:35]
A
The thing they didn't totally have last year that I think they had this year is like different kinds of lineups depending on who they're playing. But I. I felt like. I just thought they played OKC so well. Last year it was the one team that I felt like it was like boxing could go toe to toe with OKC and really move around the ring with them. All right. The lakers dropped from 49 and a half to 47 and a half. They added DeAndre and Jake LaRavia and whatever version of Marcus Smart this is going to be. They lost Finney Smith, they lost Goodwin, who got Kind of like they're plus 220 for the Division 16, one for the title, which is ludicrous. And I guess the question for me, when LeBron comes back, can you actually be a contender when you have to hide your three best guys on defense? That's the part I can't wrap my head around with this team, their three best guys are all people you would attack if you're the other team on defense at this point. LeBron can have those moments when he looks like Miami LeBron for two seconds.
- [108:42]
C
But for the most part, he was pretty dialed in for like a two month stretch last year.
- [108:46]
A
He's going to be a year older and now he has some sort of herniated disc. Whatever makes me nervous. I, I'll just spoil my pick right now. I'm under for this. I, I think I have them in like the 44 to 46 range. Shocker is.
- [109:01]
B
I know.
- [109:02]
C
Lakers, the Lake State.
- [109:04]
B
Yeah, exactly. Because. Can't believe that. How dare both enthusiasm.
- [109:07]
A
How dare both.
- [109:08]
C
We came to your house.
- [109:09]
A
I went way over on them two years ago and they, I think they might have they. We crushed on it.
- [109:15]
B
The challenge for me, Zach Low, is there used to be a rule. We used to have a rule that you just can't go under 46 or 47 games when one of the game's five best players are on a team. Right.
- [109:29]
A
So we're right on the cusp here with the 46 and a half. I thought the same thing.
- [109:33]
C
46 and a half.
- [109:35]
A
I'm sorry, 47 and a half.
- [109:36]
B
That's 47 and a half. So Luca, skinny Luca, Luca with an agenda. This team is Luca's team. This is his season to make his mark. The true welcome to Los Angeles. Because they went out so feebly in the playoffs and that wasn't. That's Luca. You know, wipe that dirt off his shoulders. This team is his team. It's going to succeed or fail with him. I am taking the under because I don't have a defensive identity for this team. I can't come up with the defense for this team. I go through the personnel. I don't know. Nobody jumps off the page. And also I can't overemphasize the respect for the LeBron. I don't think sciatica is not like, oh, it's this thing that gets fixed. Here's the fix for sciatica. No, no, no, no, no. Not when you're 41 years old. This is going to be a persistent problem all season long. If you Want to do over under for games played for LeBron James. And I'll set it. I'll set it at 30 and a half. Wow. I'll set it at 30and a half for LeBron James. Well, here's the thing. The important thing is for him to play in the playoffs.
- [110:52]
C
So got to get there in the West. You got to get there. You can't have these conversations in the west if you're one of these teams like, oh, we get to the playoffs.
- [110:58]
A
That doesn't exist in the west, but that's playing exists.
- [111:01]
B
Yeah.
- [111:01]
A
Luka by himself is 42 wins.
- [111:03]
B
He better. He better be.
- [111:04]
C
What do you think the most regular season wins Luka Mavericks team ever got was.
- [111:11]
A
Was low 50s, right?
- [111:12]
C
52.
- [111:12]
A
Yeah. But then a couple under 40. What was the year they made the finals?
- [111:17]
C
50 wins.
- [111:18]
A
But they had the one year when they, when they got lively.
- [111:22]
C
That was the tank year. So they went 38 and 44.
- [111:26]
B
And how many of those games did he miss though?
- [111:28]
A
I don't think he missed as many as didn't I like he was playing most of that time.
- [111:34]
C
All right, well, Lakers fans, I'll be on the island by myself. I'm going over 47 and a half the line dropped to a point where I felt comfortable doing it. I trust Luca, I trust Reeves. I think they have. I think they have better depth this year. I think LeBron will play more than what you just said, but who the hell knows? I've never had sciatica before. It sounds awful. 50 wins last year. Expected wins. 45. Won a lot of clutch games. Got some opposing opponents shooting luck from three.
- [112:02]
A
They also had some crazy schedule stuff where they. It felt like over and over again they were playing some team where their best guy wasn't playing or two guys were missing. So yeah, I didn't feel like they were 50.
- [112:12]
C
Well, and to lean into your Lakers exceptionalism thing, they will lead the league in free throw rate every year and never get called for any fouls. So I feel like I'm starting every game ahead 5 0.
- [112:24]
B
They certainly have the right head coach for that.
- [112:26]
A
Great point.
- [112:26]
C
I'm going over 40. I don't feel like this feels like optimistic. I don't think I wouldn't go 50 on this team, but I can see 49 or 48. So I'm going to go barely, barely over.
- [112:38]
A
So part of my case for if there was like real urgency with this season with them, I might feel differently about it. But this feels like such a transition season in so many ways that's the.
- [112:49]
C
Smart money is on the under because they have a little bit to trade now, but they have more to trade later. And they have the cap room thing looming. Like, that's.
- [112:57]
A
And they've been very clear. Like 27. Yes. Hour and a half in, we finally broke Zach. He's got real regret about a pick.
- [113:08]
C
I'm sticking. I'm sticking with it. I'm not letting.
- [113:10]
B
What's going on with the ownership group, like in the sense of direction.
- [113:14]
A
Oh, my God.
- [113:14]
B
Bill Simmons has his hand up.
- [113:16]
A
This is part of my thing. I think this is a really tumultuous year for them. You have the ownership group where a lot of stuff has not come out yet about what's going on with the kids. And I can't wait to see who does that. The bus kids, the sale. Like, there's a lot of acrimony all over the place. I feel very comfortable saying that.
- [113:34]
C
Second, it was a 4 to 2 vote among the siblings. That means two said no.
- [113:37]
A
Second, you have LeBron, who did all the stuff last summer.
- [113:42]
B
I know we got him.
- [113:44]
A
His head is in his hands with like, we'll be monitoring this. We'll see if they want to be competitive. And meanwhile, he has nowhere to go. And he's never been in a situation before. He's been on somebody else's team. And now House made the point. I had sciatica. I had all kinds of back shit in 03 and 04. I was working for Jimmy Kimmel show. We would have the writers meetings and I would just lie on the floor. Cause I couldn't sit in a chair. When it goes down to your knees and your feet, it's a whole other. It does not just heal in two weeks.
- [114:13]
B
That's it.
- [114:14]
A
And I don't care how much technology you have. It's like every hit he takes, he's gonna feel it. And on top of it, he doesn't have a contract next year. So you have that. You have Ruiz in expiring. Gabe Vincent is expiring. Max 8 is an expiring. I don't feel like they're going to use future assets to try to upgrade. I think they want to just get to 27 and see what's going on with Giannis, see what's going on with whoever.
- [114:36]
B
They're starting to have the most important part, which was the Luka extension. They did that thing that was.
- [114:40]
A
And they told Luca, just go nuts this year. Score 33, 34, 35 a game. Do your thing. A year from now, we're Going to go all in. They gave jj. How about this suspicious JJ Extension guy was hired a year ago as the head coach. Got an extension. Why did he get an extension? Because they did a good job. Like we don't care if we're a contender this year.
- [114:58]
B
Did a good job.
- [114:59]
A
I don't think they care if they're a contender this year.
- [115:03]
C
You don't think Connect was the steel of the 2024 draft anymore?
- [115:08]
A
I think most of the guys they have can't play defense. And I would include Marcus Smart, who I think can guard bigger guys but has no chance against point guards anymore. Vanderbilt's gonna have to guard everybody in the other team. And we didn't mention deandre Ayton.
- [115:21]
C
This is the most fired up you've gotten the entire podcast.
- [115:24]
A
I just think they have so many variables. Like, like DeAndre Ayton. Two teams with DeAndre Ayton have said, please take him. Like you can have him. He's like a couch that people are just trying to get rid of. So I see on paper he's already.
- [115:38]
C
Been a suitcase and a couch in this.
- [115:41]
A
He's going through furniture. I just don't think they care about this year.
- [115:45]
C
Are they over 500?
- [115:47]
A
I think they're. Luka, they have to be between 42 and 45. I think they're above 500.
- [115:53]
C
I'm not being disrespectful. I'm taking the over. You guys are not talking me out of it. I came in here with my convictions, sticking with my convictions.
- [116:01]
A
I think 48 and 34 is really hard, especially if I don't know how many games LeBron's playing.
- [116:06]
B
That's it. 47 and 35. Because the under I, I set my, my number, I'm an under.
- [116:11]
A
But I do think there's possible year from.
- [116:14]
C
Nobody believes in you. Nobody believes in the 20, 25, 26 Lakers Luca. Nobody believes in Fit Luca.
- [116:21]
B
There's got to be karma one way or the other.
- [116:23]
C
Fit Luca.
- [116:24]
B
Fit Luca.
- [116:25]
C
I love.
- [116:25]
A
Well, here's the other thing with that. I was thinking about this too. What's like the best case scenario for their season? Like 50 wins, 49 and 33.
- [116:33]
C
There's a best case scenario where they can win 52, 53 games. I mean, you're talking best case. Best case means LeBron's healthier than we expect. They get lucky and close.
- [116:43]
B
I'm rooting for it.
- [116:44]
C
I'd like, you know.
- [116:45]
A
So here's another thing.
- [116:46]
B
I want to be clear.
- [116:48]
A
This was. There could only be one at 47 and a half. And you had to go over with one and under and the other. And our next team, the Golden State Warriors, 47 and a half is the same number.
- [116:58]
C
We just transitioned right to the Warriors.
- [117:00]
B
What's wrong with that? They're in the same division.
- [117:02]
C
I understand. I'm just. I'm fired up now because you guys are just the east coast bias.
- [117:10]
A
Golden State 47 app. I don't think you could take over for Golden State and the Lakers.
- [117:16]
C
Why?
- [117:16]
A
You have to pick one, you know.
- [117:18]
B
Who has two thumbs.
- [117:19]
C
You know, has two thumbs. And took under for the Denver Nuggets for this exact reason. This guy right here. So you don't get to tell me what I can do on your own.
- [117:26]
B
Fair enough.
- [117:26]
A
That's fair enough. Fair enough.
- [117:28]
C
God damn.
- [117:29]
A
Plus 2. 20 for the division. Golden State 27 to 1 for the title. Same odds as the Atlanta Hawks. Minus 420 for the playoffs, plus 130 for the playing house.
- [117:41]
C
Now I'm fired up.
- [117:44]
A
They lost Looney. They added Al Horford, the most beloved Celtic teammate probably in the history of the franchise. And they added Seth Curry. They have a veteran, good karma, good personality, professional team, and Jonathan Kaminga.
- [118:02]
B
Tell me who Jonathan Kaminga is on this team in whenever they decide to trade him. Who's it going to be? Because Jonathan Kaminga. I don't. There's no. They're not entering the playoffs in April of 2026 with Jonathan Comminger.
- [118:17]
A
I had that as one of my questions. Where is he playing in February? Because it won't be a Gold State.
- [118:23]
B
I earnestly asked that question because it will help me determine. I. This is. I have a big question mark. I don't know what to do with this team.
- [118:29]
C
I went through all. I went through all the fake Kaminga trades last week, and I don't remember what they all were off the top of my head, but it was actually kind of hard to find one that was realistic.
- [118:41]
B
Is marketing not realistic?
- [118:43]
A
Marketing's realistic for me.
- [118:45]
C
It would have to be. It would have to be coming and everything else. Remember, he's got that weird base year compensation thing where his salary counts differently for the warriors than it does for the team that gets him, which is tricky.
- [118:56]
B
Doesn't that help with marketing? Because marketing is.
- [118:59]
C
I feel like it never helps.
- [119:00]
A
Okay, well, so right now they would. They would be starting, I would guess, Draymond, with Kaminga, Butler, Pudzemski and Curry, Horford, Heald, Moody, Jackson, Davis, GP2 and post off the bench. But they have contracts. They can put together. They have all their picks and except.
- [119:23]
C
One which they owe you guys.
- [119:24]
A
Frisky.
- [119:25]
B
Yeah, let's go. Right. That's the Jordan.
- [119:27]
C
But they can trade a piece of that pick.
- [119:29]
A
Is the best case scenario of a 2026 warriors season. Top six in the west just being one of the six teams.
- [119:36]
B
Yeah, for sure. Yes. This. Remember 48 wins was the number to make the play in in the west last year. And this team to me looks like a 48ish win team now. The number moved. The market responded to the Lakers injury to the LeBron's injury. The Lakers have been docked and the.
- [120:00]
C
Warriors established nobody believes in the Los Angeles Lakers.
- [120:03]
B
Is it for me my hands up.
- [120:05]
A
I like it.
- [120:06]
B
I don't. Yeah, it's good. Good.
- [120:08]
A
Here's. Here's another case for Golden State. If you're going to go over. They were just really good the last 30 games of the season.
- [120:14]
B
Yep.
- [120:14]
A
They're 22 and 8. They were 8.8 plus net rating. They had probably the second best defense in the league for that stretch. This is all with Butler. And I just think when you're that good for that long and you're bringing everybody back and you could be reasonably healthy, the question and the issue with the Overrunners with a team like this is just. You got old guys. I'm counting on Butler, Curry and Draymond to play minutes.
- [120:41]
B
They had to go 22 and eight down the stretch to make the effing play in.
- [120:44]
A
Right.
- [120:44]
B
They weren't going to make it.
- [120:46]
C
Urgency. Yeah, urgency.
- [120:47]
B
Right.
- [120:47]
C
But they, they, their team changed in exactly the kinds of ways you would hope it would change by adding Jimmy Butler. Like their turnover rate went way down. Their free throw way went way up. Their forcing turnovers on defense went way up. It was like they just injected score stuff they didn't have that came in one guy who can play their cut and screen and move style of play without any tutorial. Just walk in.
- [121:11]
A
Well, also you go from having Curry to now Curry where there's less attention on him. So you're getting a better Curry on top of all these other things.
- [121:20]
C
And also just like we talked about with Denver, like when Curry goes to the bench, we actually have like a reliable thing we can do. This was one of the easiest overs on the board for me. I'll press my lock button for the first time. Oh, wow.
- [121:33]
B
This is amazing.
- [121:34]
C
Yeah. So I worry about their playoff like, like, like getting through 82 games plus a grind of a couple playoff series because they're so old. But I just think the IQ and talent on this team is way over 47.
- [121:47]
A
The chemistry is going to be awesome.
- [121:48]
C
And I do my eyes pop. My eyes pop when all the projection systems like Pelton Hollinger are like, spitting out huge numbers for this team. If they're all in agreement, I'm like, okay, the Vegas is missing something.
- [122:01]
A
Horford, too. Because part of the problem with them, just the way the league has changed with just being able to put shooters around Steph to give him more space.
- [122:10]
C
Right.
- [122:10]
A
And you just flipping looney for Horford is so massive for him. If Horford has anything left, we can just park him at the top in that post role. They're playing post a bunch. Who I don't even think, all due respect to him, is not somebody you really want to rely on for 25 minutes a game. But now you have Horford, who then can play defense, too. And. And I think they're going to be really good defensively. And I just like the team.
- [122:35]
B
I have a question for you guys. And then. Well, let me ask questions.
- [122:38]
A
We have made a pick yet, so I wanted that first.
- [122:39]
B
I know, because I have a question. I'd like to ask the question first. How many games do you think that Draymond Steph and Jimmy Butler will play together? There's 82 games. How many of those 82 games will those three guys be?
- [122:52]
A
How is it to play? Is it also fair to say this will be our last happy Jimmy Butler season before he'll then have a year left? So this next summer will be when he starts up with the. I don't know what's happened with my contract.
- [123:06]
C
Would you say that to his face? Huh?
- [123:10]
A
I probably would, actually.
- [123:12]
C
I mean, you would like it if you did.
- [123:13]
A
Yeah. It's like, hey, Jimmy, can you be happy for a year maybe?
- [123:18]
C
So you're.
- [123:19]
B
My question is how many? Because that.
- [123:21]
C
That.
- [123:21]
B
That is important to. I think. Or is it not? That doesn't matter.
- [123:26]
A
I would say it's 60 plus for me.
- [123:28]
C
No, I don't think so. I think it's more than that. I was gonna say 45 or 50. That all three of them play together. 55, maybe.
- [123:34]
A
Are you talking about injury? Or they're gonna, like, staggering injury and, like, they're just. I'm going home.
- [123:39]
C
Like, they're all project to be like 65 game players. So you just start doing the math of how much do those overlap.
- [123:46]
B
So if you have two of those three guys for good stretches of the season, we're saying that it doesn't matter, right? Okay.
- [123:52]
A
So I feel good. Like on the one side with Curry, Kerr has been. I don't. Steph looked a little gamey tonight. I'm resting him in Phoenix tomorrow. Like he'll just, he'll always do that.
- [124:01]
B
Yes.
- [124:01]
A
On the other side, they really hated being in the play in last year. And just all the, all the miles you have to put on yourselves in games like that. I don't think they want any part of it. I think they want to be in the top six. Which makes me the question for me though, Zach, they'd have to jump. Okc, not happening. Denver, not happening. Minnesota, probably not happening. The Clippers, I'm going to say not happening. Houston Lakers, San Antonio, they have to jump two of those to be in the top six, basically. I mean that's where it gets hard. They're going to have to be in the 49 range.
- [124:40]
B
For me it's easier.
- [124:41]
C
They're not jumping. They don't have to jump San Antonio. They are ahead of San Antonio last.
- [124:45]
A
Year and coming into this year, the case earlier that Wemby's has a chance.
- [124:49]
B
To be like, you guys made that case, not me.
- [124:51]
C
But this is why I said when Van Vliet got injured.
- [124:54]
A
Yeah.
- [124:54]
C
Like there's. It's not hard to come seventh in the West. Like not a lot has to go wrong for your team for you to suddenly be in the play in tournament. And Houston fans, like, I'm not saying they will. I think they're going to be a little better than that. But like you can't pencil any of these teams below Oklahoma City and Denver into the third seed. Like just like no brainer.
- [125:14]
B
If you win 47 games, you're. You're in the play in. You're looking at. You're like fighting to make the play in. I am going to take the over. I want to be on the record with this team. I think they're going to win 48 games.
- [125:25]
A
Fucking copycatted us. That was bullshit.
- [125:27]
B
We talked it through.
- [125:28]
A
Ridiculous. I like you should have come in with the pick.
- [125:31]
C
I like Melton.
- [125:32]
A
Who's cheating? Moody cheater.
- [125:34]
B
What are you talking about?
- [125:35]
C
You guys couldn't talk me out of the Lakers over. I look forward to being wrong on that one, but I'm taking it. Sticking with it.
- [125:40]
A
You mentioned the Houston play in possibilities.
- [125:43]
C
Yeah. What are the. What are the odds?
- [125:44]
A
Plus 330 on FanDuel.
- [125:47]
B
Kind of intriguing before the season because.
- [125:48]
A
There'S going to be a playing team in the west that we did not think was going to be in the playoffs.
- [125:52]
C
One of the older LA, LA Golden State teams is going to just run into a pile of bad injury luck. And just like something is going to go wrong for one of these teams.
- [125:59]
B
It's literally the Lakers.
- [126:00]
A
Lakers plus 155.
- [126:02]
C
Nobody believes in the Lakers plan.
- [126:05]
A
Two more. Contractually we have to do these last two teams.
- [126:08]
C
Contractually. I'm just getting fired up now.
- [126:11]
A
The Sacramento Kings, they're over. Under is 35 and a half. They are plus 360 for the playoffs. They two to one for the play in. They lost Laravia and Valanchunas. They added Schroeder. They added the Artists formerly known as Darius Aric and Drew Eubanks. And they lost Keegan Murray for at least the first 10 to 12 games of the season. Season. And they also had some weird off season stuff with Vivek's daughter being kind of peripherally involved in this chance Comanche story, which was pretty crazy in general. I mean, just saying that Kings had a weird anything is kind of. I know if I needed to say that. Do they get enough credit for being reprehensibly incompetent? Zach?
- [127:01]
C
Oh, yeah.
- [127:02]
B
Okay.
- [127:02]
A
You think they enough credit? Yeah, I just want to make sure.
- [127:05]
C
Yeah, no, there's.
- [127:06]
A
Because they have.
- [127:07]
C
They're about to get more so we can. We can keep going.
- [127:09]
A
They have one playoff series appearance since 06. They haven't won a playoff series since 04. They haven't made the finals ever. And they just seem to keep popping up whenever weird shit happens with the NBA. I feel bad for the Kings fans because we got a taste of how cool it was once upon a time. Two years ago it feels like 20 would light the beam and then they just decided to reassemble. The 20, 23 Chicago Bulls was Sabonis and that's where we are now.
- [127:38]
C
I would like to congratulate Vegas again. I don't know how to do this. I don't know. I'm not a gambling guy. Team in the last three years has won 48, 46 and 40 games. And Vegas is like, yeah, how about 35 and a half? How about you eat that crappy number of Sacramento Kings? And I could not be more aggressively under even on that low number. Give me all the Kings Understock. I hate this team. I hate this roster. I hate the Keegan Murray's already injured. I hate the vibes. I hate everything. I think this is going to be a year from hell for the Kings. I'm taking under. Under.
- [128:15]
A
You didn't even Mention coach Doug Christie under.
- [128:18]
C
Could not be. Like, it's a low number. And I just could not be more like, this is the year from hell. Who's playing defense on this team? Why are DeMar DeRozan and Zach Levine on the same team anymore? Ever? Like, I. I hate everything about the. Dennis Schroeder I don't hate. So. I don't hate everything. There are parts. I don't mind. I hate the construction of the team. I hate the. I just hate it. I'm going under House.
- [128:40]
A
Are there. So we'll say Utah. Is there another west team you like less than the Kings?
- [128:47]
B
No.
- [128:48]
A
No, no, no.
- [128:50]
B
This. This team, it is the epitome of shit alchemy. Taking gold and spinning it into a giant pile of shit. This team had Tyrese Halliburton on it. This team had Darren Fox on it. This team had a beam. I wanted to. I liked lighting the effing beam. That was an amazing season. I enjoyed that season.
- [129:11]
C
I'm sorry. I got a lot. I'm sorry what happened. No, I'm just like. Who's the backup power forward on this team? Doug McDermott. Look at the depth on this team. Nick Clifford's got to step in and play like 30 minutes a game.
- [129:22]
A
Like Sarge is going to play.
- [129:24]
C
Why? What is that? Hey, you didn't play at all for the Nuggets. We'll take you.
- [129:30]
A
Also, they try to trade Malik. Monk. Monk.
- [129:34]
B
Monk.
- [129:35]
A
I did it.
- [129:36]
C
House.
- [129:36]
B
Our first one of the season.
- [129:37]
A
My first one.
- [129:38]
B
Love it.
- [129:38]
C
Monk. We haven't even got to many of the Yugoslavian players.
- [129:41]
A
They tried to trade him all summer. I kind of like him.
- [129:44]
B
There's still time to do it.
- [129:45]
A
I would take it.
- [129:47]
C
This team stinks.
- [129:48]
A
They try to trade Carter for Kamingo.
- [129:51]
C
The whole thing stinks like the garbage bags on the sidewalk that have been out two days too long. It just stinks. I could not be more happy to take an under on a low number on a team that has been around 500 or over for three straight years.
- [130:03]
A
I wrote. Here are some of my notes. This is the single dumbest NBA roster. They have no salary cap space. They have no young studs. They have no under 25 player. You were like this guy. They have no chance. There's no point for the team. There's no five. There's no five man rotation you can put together with the players they have that could win two games in a playoff series if they played all 48 minutes without a bench.
- [130:30]
C
I like Keon Ellis. They messed that one up.
- [130:34]
A
Too. This is just. I hate it. I mean, thank God for these guys that Joe Dumars came back to New Orleans and was able to do his thing because this is the height of ineptness. And some of the east teams have gotten more competent. Some of the ones that we've had from an inept standpoint like Charlotte, Detroit, you know, the Wizards, they were like some really dumb, stupid. And now we just have the Nets and we have the Nets and the Kings and the Pelicans as our big three. I am a hard under as well House and I assume you are too.
- [131:03]
B
Yes.
- [131:04]
A
Ok. Three unders. Not. Not.
- [131:06]
C
I think this is it. This is the Hindenburg of NBA teams this year.
- [131:14]
A
Also like might be the number one fan base. Really mad at the team by like December. Trying to think of a fan base that would be matter.
- [131:22]
C
Chicago's hard to beat.
- [131:25]
B
Oh yeah. Wow. Wait till we get to that.
- [131:27]
A
No, but Chicago's like just trapped in a loveless marriage. Chicago Bulls fan, you have no hope every year.
- [131:33]
B
Zach, I think you. This was on your podcast maybe with Nikais yesterday. This is a team whose head coach went from Sacramento to a team that I think is going to be in the NBA Finals. Didn't take a break. I think that was on your pod. I think I heard that on your pod.
- [131:53]
C
I remember.
- [131:53]
B
But yeah, my brow went from this goddamn garbage dump to becoming the head coach of a team that made the Finals will be my pick for the NBA Finals in the East. Also.
- [132:08]
A
Why did they trade the Aaron Fox? Why did they have to do it when they did it? What was the point of that?
- [132:13]
C
Because he asked for it.
- [132:14]
B
He asked.
- [132:15]
A
Okay, we'll talk about it after the season. De', Aaron, that's what the Max money was for. Let's try to make it through this year. We'll talk this summer. Instead they made this crappy trade that nobody liked. Well, just when you think it can't get worse. Here's the Phoenix suns over under 31 and a half.
- [132:36]
C
It's a low number.
- [132:38]
A
New coach Jordan Ott.
- [132:39]
C
Yeah, like him.
- [132:41]
A
They lost Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal among other players. They lost half their team. They added Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green. They have centers now. Mark Mark Williams and Maliak Malawatch. Malawatch.
- [132:53]
B
Did I say it right?
- [132:54]
A
Malawatch.
- [132:55]
B
Zach gave me the thumbs up.
- [132:57]
A
They have to swap 2026 first with Washington, but might not have to because Washington's also going to be bad. Plus 680 for the playoffs, plus 200 for the plan. And they're paying Devin Booker. My math might be off but I think he makes $143 million this year somewhere in there 133. 143 their starting lineup is looks like Mark Williams, Royce O', Neill, Dylan Brooks, Devin Booker and Jalen Green House. How many minutes a league pass are you going to watch of this team over under 50? Oh, a lot.
- [133:34]
B
Why this team intrigues me.
- [133:36]
A
Why?
- [133:37]
B
Because I think that they have something to prove. I'm actually interested in this team. I think that this is a curious experiment. You know ishpia like how S and.
- [133:49]
A
M is an experiment.
- [133:50]
B
Well that.
- [133:52]
A
Making a CM film is an experiment.
- [133:54]
B
No, no no. We don't go that dark. I'm not that mean. I'm not anymore.
- [134:00]
A
I'm that mean.
- [134:01]
B
Yeah. No I actually think that this team with Booker is incented to try like it was so dead there last year the breathing the new life into the thing. I'm actually kind of intrigued counter they.
- [134:19]
A
Could just suck and keep either their pick or Washington's pick and have a top five pick.
- [134:24]
B
They don't have to do anything that's going to happen right?
- [134:27]
A
Probably might happen. They're probably the third worst team in the west Sack second or third.
- [134:32]
C
I don't think think I don't think they keep I think that their pick swap is so complicated. I think Memphis has has left them in pick swap rights in this like morass of picks. I'm not sure how their pick swap works. They might. They don't control their.
- [134:46]
A
I did so much research for this.
- [134:48]
B
Pod and it's impossible.
- [134:50]
A
We maybe.
- [134:51]
C
Maybe it's a giant paragraph right here but I just remember talking to people about how Memphis is like almost more or less guaranteed a lottery pick between Washington's pick and Phoenix's pick. In any case I don't care either way. I'm going under anyway. It doesn't matter to me. I do think there's. I'm kind of with you where like there's some. They got a lot of and I mean this in a good way like a lot of tweener forwards on the team that I'm interested in sort of like Brooks and o' Neill and Fleming the kid they just drafted in Iguidoro and done they trend a little big which is interesting because they can be switchy and whatever it's. It's the ball handling behind Booker that makes me really really nervous. If he misses any amount of time it's point Jalen Green or it's like calling in Colin Gillespie for like super duper emergency 25 minute a game duty. That makes me very nervous. The youth of the centers makes me very nervous. Mark Williams missing half of every season makes me nervous.
- [135:49]
A
Mark Williams being frantically traded by his team even though he's 23 years old.
- [135:54]
C
There's some Dylan Brooks like flip you for a future pick potential which I think he's like a sneaky, interesting trade candidate.
- [136:04]
B
Me too.
- [136:04]
C
I think I'm with you that there's stuff to like not hate here but. And the number is very low. But I'm still going under because in this conference I just have too many questions about the roster.
- [136:14]
A
So. I think you're right, Zach, on that. Sun's. It's. It's super complicated, but it looks like Charlotte's involved. Memphis is involved.
- [136:24]
C
I think Memphis.
- [136:25]
A
They did a use of Nurkic trade where they kind of dumped some sort of protection with something with 26.
- [136:31]
C
Were you going over either way, we're all.
- [136:32]
A
No, I wasn't going over.
- [136:33]
B
No, I'm gonna go correct. I am going over. Yeah, I am. I am. Because 32 and 50 is a terrible record. And you know, they're.
- [136:43]
A
They're still has been that absolutely absurd.
- [136:45]
B
It's fine.
- [136:46]
C
They won 33 games last year or.
- [136:48]
B
36 games last year with a roster where they hated. Everybody hated each other and the coach, I mean coach Bud Light.
- [136:56]
A
Can we talk about Jalen Green and Devin Booker sharing a backcourt together?
- [137:00]
B
I think it'll be fine.
- [137:02]
A
Fine in what context?
- [137:03]
B
Ask Jordan.
- [137:05]
C
This is.
- [137:05]
B
This is a little bit of a.
- [137:06]
C
Jordan Knott's gonna be a good coach.
- [137:07]
B
I agree.
- [137:08]
C
But Jordan not. But this is the place where coaches go to die. And like, you know, I mean all.
- [137:14]
B
The has been retread coaches. This is a new young, you know, terrible pick. Look, literally.
- [137:22]
C
I love it. I actually love it.
- [137:23]
B
Monty Williams made his mark with this. He went on to the ignominy that he deserved. But Monty Williams, you know, there's a playbook for ignominy.
- [137:35]
A
That's a word you mean ignominy?
- [137:38]
B
Say it however you want.
- [137:41]
A
How about the correct way? Okay.
- [137:43]
B
Pull it up on Google on the Google machine.
- [137:46]
A
So you're going over for the sense.
- [137:48]
B
It'S just 32 wins. It's a. That's a team with a record.
- [137:52]
A
I think they are either the second or worst. Third, second or third worst west team. Lock it down.
- [138:00]
B
I mean that's kind of fine.
- [138:01]
C
I love that you're. I love that you're going over. I am going over because there's more talent here. Than people think. I just don't think it's enough.
- [138:08]
B
This guy who came from the MVP season in Europe or like he played really Davis? Yeah, Hayes Davis. Another guy.
- [138:15]
A
So Phoenix made the 2021 finals and then they went 64 and 18 in 2022.
- [138:21]
C
Yep.
- [138:22]
A
Heading into that playoffs they were a 64 win team and Luca broke them. Luca broke Luca broke them. KD trade, Beal trade. They lost all their picks and swaps plus bridges, Cam Johnson. They lost Ayton. They went from 45, 49, 37 wins. They paid the highest luxury tax for three years.
- [138:41]
C
The Aiden thing like the Nurkit. They also traded Kamara in that trade. Like it's unbelievable sneaky disaster like trade within a trade.
- [138:50]
A
It's one of the great terrible three year runs in the history of the league by a front office ownership which would be. That would be a fun podcast for a rainy day. Just how many all time worst anti haters by a team. Just a three year shit fest.
- [139:06]
C
How many different kings stretches could we put Be tough.
- [139:10]
A
You'd have to pick eras you'd almost have. They couldn't overlap the errors. You couldn't take 2012-14 if 14 to 16 was in there. All right, we're going to go backwards and go through all of our picks.
- [139:21]
C
Okay.
- [139:22]
A
And you guys tell me what the locks are. Oklahoma City 62 and a half. We all went over lock.
- [139:32]
C
I'm locking a 62 and a half over. I'm locking it. It's one of my. How many locks do am I required to lock?
- [139:37]
A
You can do. You can honestly do as many as you want up to 10. I want a minimum.
- [139:42]
C
I don't want that many locks. Six.
- [139:46]
A
Double lock for okc.
- [139:47]
B
I'm not locking it. I like the over. You guys talk me into it.
- [139:50]
A
Denver Nuggets 53 and a half house and I went over. Zach went under.
- [139:55]
B
I am a lock on on Denver over 53 and a half.
- [139:58]
A
Okay, very exciting. Minnesota Timberwolves. All three of us are over at 49 and a half.
- [140:05]
C
Lock it.
- [140:07]
A
Okay.
- [140:08]
B
I'm joining Zach. I need more locks. I'm joining Zach on the lock for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
- [140:14]
A
I'm going to stay away. Portland 34 and a half under, under, under for all three of us.
- [140:20]
C
Yep.
- [140:21]
A
Utah 19 and a half under under under for all three of us.
- [140:25]
C
Can't believe we all went under a 19 and a half. That's congratulations to the Utah jazz.
- [140:29]
A
Houston Rockets 52 and a half, three unders for us. It's a borderline Lock.
- [140:37]
C
Lock it.
- [140:38]
A
Oh, you're locking that?
- [140:39]
B
Locking the under. Wow.
- [140:42]
A
I want to lock it, but I want. I really want to root for the Rockets to be good because I think we need one more really good basketball team, but that seems way too high. I'm going to stay away. San Antonio, 43 and a half, over for me, over for Zach, under for House. I'm locking this down. 43 and a half, over for me.
- [141:02]
C
I'm not joining you.
- [141:04]
A
Dallas Mavericks, 40 1/2 over for me, under for Zach, over for house. It's a lock for me.
- [141:15]
C
You said that. You looked right into my eyes.
- [141:17]
A
I'm locking it. Memphis 39 and a half, under for me, under for Zach, over for house.
- [141:23]
C
I thought I went over on Memphis. I went over on Memphis.
- [141:26]
A
I'll switch you to over.
- [141:27]
C
I didn't even remember you going under under.
- [141:31]
A
New Orleans, 30 and a half, three overs.
- [141:35]
C
Obviously a franchise you can trust to that level.
- [141:39]
A
What could go wrong? Clippers, three overs.
- [141:45]
C
Unbelievable. Someone should just go under our principle.
- [141:49]
A
Lakers under 47 and a half for me and for Joe House, over for Zach.
- [141:55]
C
You hear that, Lakers fans? Lakers.
- [141:57]
B
Right into the camera. He says it right into the camera.
- [142:01]
A
Golden State Warriors, 47 1/2, 3 overs.
- [142:06]
C
Lock.
- [142:06]
A
I already locked it.
- [142:07]
C
I pre locked it.
- [142:08]
A
Yeah, you did lock it.
- [142:08]
B
Pre locked it.
- [142:12]
A
I'm not gonna lock it because of the old guys, but I am gonna lock this next one. Sacramento 35 and a half. It is three o'. Clock.
- [142:22]
B
That's the legacy. No, no, no, no. I'm not locking.
- [142:26]
A
No.
- [142:26]
C
You're not locking it.
- [142:27]
B
No. I mean, they're so weird. They're. They're. It's a disaster.
- [142:30]
C
But I am. I like. I have like four different locks. I have a combination lock, I have a bike lock, I have a chain lock, tire lock, every possible lock.
- [142:38]
B
Vagina lock.
- [142:39]
A
300 for Doug Christie. That's right. Yeah, yeah, she. I forgot about that story.
- [142:45]
B
That's right.
- [142:46]
A
Phoenix 31 and a half.
- [142:49]
C
We all.
- [142:50]
A
Oh, no, you were under for Zach, over for House.
- [142:53]
C
Lock it up.
- [142:54]
B
I only have two locks, so I'd like to lock the Clippers as well. I'm applying a lock retroactive 49 and a half. It's not retroactive. We're talking about it now. I have Denver, Minnesota and the Clippers as lock overs.
- [143:08]
A
You know what? Since we're going backwards on locks, I'm going to lock in Denver over 53 and a half as well with my guy, Nicola Jokic, my favorite non Celtics.
- [143:20]
C
Are you on Jokic Island?
- [143:22]
A
I'm Jokic. Continental that's it for part one of the NBA over unders. Part two will be the East. It's going up about 12:15 hours after you listen or watch to this one, which you can hopefully watch on Spotify or wherever you get your pods. Thanks to Chris, thanks to Eduardo, thanks to Ronick as well. And we will see you for part two. Must be 21 plus on President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + on President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gamma problem call 100 Gambler, visit rg-help.com, call 888-797-777 or visit ccpg.org Chattinconenetican or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York.