NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East With Zach Lowe and Joe House

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast

NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East

Guests: Zach Lowe (ESPN), Joe House
Date: October 15, 2025

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Overview

This episode is the eagerly awaited Eastern Conference companion to the "Over/Unders" two-parter—an annual tradition where Bill Simmons, Zach Lowe, and Joe House dissect every NBA team's projected win totals for the upcoming season. After tackling the West in Part 1, this lively, in-depth conversation turns its attention to the East, where uncertainty reigns, and disagreements are plentiful. Using FanDuel’s latest lines as the baseline, the trio debate each franchise’s trajectory, key storylines, roster changes, and the likelihood of beating—or falling short of—the Vegas numbers. The conversation features analytics, narrative, and healthy doses of wisecracks, plus plenty of “lock” picks.

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Key Discussion Points, Insights, and Notable Moments

1. Setting the Tone: "The East is a Freaking Abyss"

• Theme: Unlike the West—which the group describes as "old school" and "argument heavy"—Simmons frames the East as unpredictable: "We're about to head to the East, which is just a freaking abyss. And I can't wait." (01:05)
• Tradition: Wizards fan House jokes about always ending on his team's win total, calling it “the cherry in the sundae.” (02:22)

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2. Central Division Breakdown

Cleveland Cavaliers – O/U 56.5

• Roster Changes: Lost Ty Jerome, Isaac Okoro; Added Lonzo Ball, Larry Nance, Thomas Bryant.
• Key Storyline: First true "Second Apron" test case—roster can’t be meaningfully changed due to salary cap restrictions.
• Simmons: "Is it good or bad for a contender to be trapped into running it back?" (03:16)
• Lowe: Thinks it’s fine, citing youth, fit, and injury excuses for last year's playoff disappointment.
• Mobley Leap: Consensus agrees Mobley could take a significant step—“What would an Evan Mobley MVP season look like for you, Zach?” (04:46).
• Picks:
  • House: Over – "57 wins is perfectly reasonable for this team." (07:03)
  • Lowe: Initially Under, citing concern about initial injuries. — “It’s weird to go under 56.5 on a 64-win team…” (07:49)
  • Simmons: Over, expects a more aggressive regular season.
  • Notable Moment: Lowe famously flips his pick midstream, calling it his "first midstream change," ultimately siding with the over. (09:27)

Detroit Pistons – O/U 46.5

• Added: Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, Javonte Green
• Lost: Tim Hardaway, Schroeder, Fontecchio, Malik Beasley
• Theme: The case for their growth may be overstated; last year’s 44–38 felt "deceiving" to Simmons.
• Lowe: Under—believes development isn’t always linear, sees offensive kinks, not enough shooting. (12:47)
• House: Under—Malik Beasley’s elite shooting loss is huge. (13:40)
• Simmons: Under—“47 felt rich to me.”
• Quote: “This is a team that's being thrown into a lot of taking a leap conversations and I'll just start… I don't really see it with Detroit.” (10:28)

Milwaukee Bucks – O/U 42.5

• Added: Miles Turner, Cole Anthony, deep bench shooters.
• Lost: Lopez, Dame Lillard, Connaughton.
• Narrative: Giannis is still there, coaching stability, shooting should support him. Skepticism arises from “will they trade Giannis?” rumors.
• House: Over, locks it in—“This team actually makes more sense than last year’s.” (17:24)
• All: Triple lock consensus—over is “dumbfounding,” “no-brainer.” (18:40)
• Notable Quote: Simmons: “I just don't see a world where this isn't like a 46-win team.” (16:24)

Indiana Pacers – O/U 36.5

• Key Issues: Lost Haliburton for the year, McConnell out a month, Turner now a Buck.
• Lowe: Under—too much of identity lost, “I just think they lost so much of their identity.” (26:13)
• House & Simmons: Over—believe in “serious dudes” culture, like Matherin’s improvement potential. Simmons leans hard over: “Borderline lock for me. I think they're going to be good." (30:18)
• Fun Segment: Simmons mangles “facsimile,” drawing podcast ribbing. (29:34)

Chicago Bulls – O/U 32.5

• Theme: “Safest non-tanking bet”; they always float around .500.
• House: Over—Donovan always gets 39+ wins, team never tanks: “That is the goal of the Chicago Bulls: to go to the play-in and lose to Miami.” (32:46)
• Lowe: Over—but sees regression; “34–48” feels right.
• Simmons: Over—team at least has a style, plus bench depth. Long riff on Bulls as Netflix rom-com. (35:21)
• Quote: “They just want to go 40–42 every year for the rest of the tournament.” (32:46)

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3. Atlantic Division Breakdown

New York Knicks – O/U 52.5

• Additions: Yabaselli, Brogdon, Clarkson; Tibbs out, Mike Brown in
• Narrative: Deeper, motivated, strong continuity, possible pressure from future trade rumors (Giannis?).
• Lowe: Over—"I think this team is deeper. The core is hungry to prove we’re not just some sort of paper tiger.” (39:12)
• House: Lock over—predicts #1 seed: “I think the Knicks are the best team in the East.” (40:53)
• Simmons: Over—no hesitation despite “test-driving” the Under; likes Yabaselli; says 54–55 wins feels right.
• Quote: “This is the most exciting slash pressurized New York Knicks season from the jump since Patrick Ewing's prime.” (43:49)

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Philadelphia 76ers – O/U 42.5

• Key Issues: Tanked last season, Embiid back (slimmer), McCain hurt.
• Lowe: Under, stay away—“There’s almost no number that’s realistic you could have given me where I’d take the over. I just can’t do it.” (45:53)
• Simmons: Under, reiterates skepticism about Embiid durability, playoff record.
• House: Under, jokes, “Better to go get a scratch ticket than to bet on this team going over.” (47:30)
• Quote: “It just was more fun when [Embiid] was really good… it was fun to have a guy like that in the league that might drop 60 on a Tuesday night…” (48:16)

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Boston Celtics – O/U 42.5

• Key Issues: Major downgrades, Tatum out but vows miraculous comeback, rebounding issues, roster thinness.
• Lowe: Under—“They lost so much... if Derrick White misses 15 games, just, they have no margin.” (51:34)
• House: Under, sees .500 team at best: “This is a 500 team… it’s a fun, innovative, 60-threes-a-game team, but under.” (53:03)
• Simmons: Over (some reluctance, but bullish on system and scrappy guards).
• Fun Quote: “Jalen Brown said he’s on a track team, not a basketball team.” (53:45)

Toronto Raptors – O/U 39.5

• Theme: Questionable ceiling, but injuries crippled last season and they’re talent-rich.
• Lowe: Over—“Over by default... They have too much talent. I can get to 42 wins with this roster…” (58:35)
• House: Over, locks it—cites their transitional play: “They have the guys that can convert.” (61:13)
• Simmons: Over (reluctantly)—“I think they’ve spent all this money to lock in a 43–39 team.” (62:09)

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Brooklyn Nets – O/U 19.5

• Consensus: Under, unanimous and emphatic—“This team’s going to be awful.” (63:08)
• Lowe: Offense will be “a mess.” (64:36)
• Simmons: Calls it a "hardcore lock" and likens their offense to "just watching crazy 11-year-olds run around not knowing who should have the ball.” (98:12)
• Riff: They try to name all seven Nets coaches over 15 years, in comic fashion. (66:01)

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4. Southeast Division

Orlando Magic – O/U 50.5

• Additions: Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones, Jace Richardson
• Losses: Cole Anthony, KCP, Gary Harris
• Lowe: Over (locks it)—“This team’s defense is a legit top three to five defense. Paolo leap. Franz leap. I just think this team’s going to be a regular season wins machine.” (70:04)
• Simmons & House: Under—question young core readiness for high expectations.
• Quote: “51 and 31 is a really good record for a team that is pretty young, that’s adding a big Bane piece...” (72:32)

Atlanta Hawks – O/U 47.5

• Lost Capela, but finally gives Okongwu ‘the keys’ and adds shooting, defense.
• All: Over—Simmons: "I think this is a really fun regular season, get-some-wins, high 40s team.” (75:14)
• Lowe: Over, no hesitation: “No zag, emphatically over!” (77:01)
• Mini-debate: Can Hawks get two All-Stars with Jalen Johnson healthy? (78:44)

Miami Heat – O/U 38.5

• Key Issue: Tyler Herro out till at least December, likely longer.
• Lowe: Over (blind faith, “Heat culture” pick)—“Whatever you want to write on the court, they get points. They’re bringing back Miami Vice jerseys—that’s like five wins.” (83:12)
• Simmons: Hard under—without Herro, sees big problems.
• House: Over, not a lock, but Spolstra’s record and team resilience cited.

Charlotte Hornets – O/U 26.5

• Defense skeptical, but impact rookies, improved depth.
• All: Over—excited about Brandon Miller’s “extension year” & Charles Lee’s new leadership.
• Simmons: “I think they're going to be a competitive bad team… and I don't think the east is good.” (87:57)
• Lowe: “I might lock the Charlotte Hornets over. Which is insane.” (89:27)
• House: “We're asking for eight more wins… Brandon Miller is the most compelling to me.” (90:33)

Washington Wizards – O/U 20.5

• House: Tiny over, hopes for rookie breakout (Trey Johnson R.O.Y. bet).
• Lowe & Simmons: Under—expect veteran sell-off, see little cohesion: “This roster makes no sense if you actually put all these dudes together on a basketball court.” (94:08)

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Notable Quotes & Fun Segments

• Lowe on being conflicted:
  “I’m doing my first midstream change. I'm going over 56 and a half.” (09:27)
• Simmons on the Bulls:
  “It’s like those romcoms on Netflix that my wife is trying to decide about—Kate Mara, Patrick Dempsey, and Connie Britton, all 34-and-48 teams.” (35:21)
• House on Miami:
  “This team in each of Spolstra’s 17 seasons has topped 36 wins… even when Jimmy tried to sabotage the basketball team.” (83:24)
• Simmons on the Nets:
  "It's like watching crazy 11-year-olds running around not knowing who should have the ball." (98:12)
• Lowe on the Knicks:
  “This is the most exciting slash pressurized New York Knicks season from the jump since Patrick Ewing's prime.” (43:49)
• Discussion on the East’s mediocrity:
  Simmons points out the six worst teams over the last decade are all Eastern Conference franchises. (35:53)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:22: House’s annual lament/joy about ending with the Wizards
• 09:27: Zach Lowe flips his Cavs pick “midstream”
• 18:35: The “Triple Lock” on the Bucks Over
• 30:18: Simmons calls Pacers “borderline lock” over
• 32:46: House on Bulls’ love for .500 mediocrity
• 39:45: House locks in Knicks over, “two-unit play on the one-seed”
• 47:30: House: “Better to go get a scratch ticket than bet on Philly’s Over”
• 51:34: Lowe’s case against the Celtics
• 70:04: Zach Lowe wars for the Magic over “hammering it”
• 77:01: Lowe “emphatically over” on Atlanta
• 83:12: Lowe’s blind faith pick for the Heat
• 89:27: Lowe contemplates locking the Hornets Over
• 98:12: Simmons locks (hardcore) Nets Under: “No scenario they win 20 games”

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Final Playoff Picture Predictions (99:45)

• Consensus top six playoff teams: Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Detroit
• Play-ins: Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto (with Zach subbing in Philly for Chicago)

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Overall Tone and Takeaways

The banter is sharp, self-deprecating, and deeply NBA-nerdy, as always. Simmons prods with hypotheticals and metaphors, House revels in his Wizardry and betting logic, and Lowe interrupts himself, shifts his picks, and uses well-reasoned caution. The East is painted as wide open, volatile, and in flux. Listeners eager for informed action or just an entertaining tour of the league will walk away ready for another unpredictable NBA regular season—armed with locks, leans, and lingering doubts.

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End.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

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[Zach Lowe]

It is.

[Bill Simmons]

And he's here right now. We did part one, NBA over unders. We did the west, which you know is a more traditional old school. Lot of good arguments. Now we're about to head to the east, which is just a freaking abyss. And I can't wait. But we're going to take a break. We're going to bring in our friends from Pearl Jam and then the East. This is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in. Live your way so you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts recently. Guess what? I did use Fando super Fun. Download the FanDuel app or go to Fando.com BS to get started. Must be 21 + President, select states, 18 + in D.C. kentucky and Wyoming. Get a problem, call win100 gambler or visit rg-help.com call 888-78-9777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. Well, we have many traditions here with the over unders pod, one of which is we usually do the east second because House's division with the Washington Wizards is usually the last division. They're usually the last pick. It's like a little cherry in the Sunday house.

[Joe House]

It's very nice. I love it.

[Bill Simmons]

See your team last.

[Joe House]

We get to end with Washington. I always leave feeling good. No matter what the pick is, I leave feeling good about it.

[Bill Simmons]

We're going to start with the Central where the Cleveland Cavaliers are at an over under a 56 and a half. They won 64 games last year. They lost Ty Jerome, they lost Isaac Okoro, they gained Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance and Thomas Bryant. And they are our first title related second apron test case Zach Lowe. It's a true contender with zero outs. This is their roster. They can't really make trades. They can't improve it. They can't even get buyout guys. This is who they are. Even if Charlotte's like, hey, we'd love to give you LaMelo Ball and three first round picks for Darius Garland, the Cavs would have to say we can't. We are trapped under a giant second apron. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? When a contender has a disappointing playoff loss and then can't make any moves and actually has to run it back.

[Zach Lowe]

I don't think it's either good or bad for this team. I think it's fine. They're all young, they all fit well together. There's a proof of concept that everyone got hurt or Darius Garland and other people got hurt in the playoffs last year. Mobley was a little banged up when they lost India and I think it's good. I think it's fine for this team. You know, core sticking together is good. I'm okay with it.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay. How about you, House?

[Joe House]

Yeah, I totally agree that this is a team that showed us it still has room to grow. And you know the big what F is what if Garland was healthy, right.

[Bill Simmons]

What if Moby plays game one?

[Zach Lowe]

What if Garland was Hunter was banged up?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, yeah. Cause I was thinking we did Phoenix for the west in part one and we were talking about how badly that went to shit over the span of three years. Right? And it all starts cause Luka beats them in that playoff series and it just sends them on tilt. And then Ishbia comes in. Now all of a sudden the KD trade happens and they just start blowing things up. I think in the old NBA, I think, I wonder if Cleveland would have done a let's blow it up something, you know what I mean? Like would Garland have been dangled? Would they have said, ah, maybe we can get away with Evan Mobley and maybe shop Jared Allen for two guys. But in this new NBA, this is where they, where they're going to be. What would an Evan Mobley MVP season look like for you, Zach?

[Zach Lowe]

How many points did he average last year? Let me look at 21, something like that.

[Bill Simmons]

He was like 19 and 19 and nine, something like that.

[Zach Lowe]

So 24 has to be a big jump in scoring. Three point shooting has to get better. Although he was 37% last year. Low volume and just a little bit more. Oh, he really feels not. He really feels more like a 1A than a third option behind Garland and Mitchell in terms of creating initiating possessions.

[Bill Simmons]

I had the minutes per game has to go up. Cause they had low minutes for everybody last year. So maybe like 34, 35 minutes a game. 24 and 12 realistic.

[Zach Lowe]

12 is tough. 12's tough. From nine and a half to 12 with a center that eats a lot of rebounds.

[Bill Simmons]

That's tough. Top three defensive player of the year rankings somewhere in there.

[Joe House]

Check it.

[Bill Simmons]

50, 40, 80 percentages. It's 24. I think the Cavs would have to have like 65 wins. I don't think it's going to happen.

[Joe House]

House, what do you got in terms of what I think about this team?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Joe House]

I think they're capable of running it back. They just set such a high bar last year and it really was. I wonder how much of it was attributable to just that. That the arrival of Kenny Atkinson and everything to the guys on the floor starting to make sense. Yeah. You could see how the combination of Atkinson plus those guys are like, yes, okay, this is. And this I'm not. This is in shade of J.B. bickerstaff. He got the most out of the crew with what he brought to the table. Atkinson, different guy, different kind of approach. And I think it. It he elevated Mobley. The guy who gets credit for elevating Mobley is Atkinson, in my humble opinion. And there is still that room to. To. To grow. This is a huge drop off in win total that I don't really grasp. Especially in view of what has. What we've all observed in the East.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. So the attrition. No Tatum, no Hal Burton.

[Joe House]

And I'm skeptical about some of the teams that we say, oh well, there's big leaps coming in, wins for a couple teams that we'll get to. So I don't think I'm going to go. You know, am I supposed to say my pick?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, go.

[Joe House]

Yeah. Yeah. It's an over for me because 57 wins is perfectly reasonable for this team.

[Zach Lowe]

I am a little surprised to be going under. It's a high number 56 and a half. I realized they won 64 last year. They were 20 and nine in close games in the last three minutes, score within three points. I don't know if they could duplicate that. I'm just a little Nervous that Garland's already hurt to start the season. Strus is already hurt to start the season. That combined with maybe someone else gets hurt along the way. Slash, we're not going to go pedal to the metal all the way like we did last year when we're like good vibes with the first team together. Let's see what we can do. I could just see a little ease off the gas and just have a nice normal 55, 54 win season. So again, I got to go under on some people on the high end. I'm going to go a little under on the Cats.

[Joe House]

It's fine.

[Zach Lowe]

It's weird to go under 56 and a half on a 64 win team. So I don't know. The injuries to start the season make me a little nervous.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, and then you also have the Lonzo piece too, where last year the tide Jerome Certainty, this year of Lonzo, who if he's playing is great. I thought about the injury stuff too, and I think that's why the number is priced where it is. Because I'm with numbers.

[Zach Lowe]

It's a good number.

[Bill Simmons]

The first time I looked at it, I'm like, whoa, that's low. They won 64 last year.

[Zach Lowe]

There's a very good chance. This is a very stupid under by me, especially with the Mobley leap potential as like the best possible reason to go over. Even if you're concerned about the injuries.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm going over for two reasons. One is the Mobley leap possibility, which I think at age 24, it's right around now. I think they treated the regular. I know they won a bunch of games in the regular season last year, but the minutes number was low. And I remember some of the dialogue when they got to the playoffs was like these guys kind of weren't ready for the ramp up because they had been kind of babied throughout the regular season and did we do something wrong? Should we have handled the regular season a little more aggressively than we did versus like trying to get these guys pacing them, getting ready and then all of a sudden they're taking haymakers in the playoffs like, ah, what's this? So I wonder if they're going to be more aggressive in the regular season. So that swung it for me. Thought maybe that's like two, three extra wins where they're just taking it a little more seriously that they have to keep laying the smackdown. Also, the east is just worse. I mean there's just multiple games now, especially like in the first half of the season where you're Playing the Celtics without Tatum.

[Joe House]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

There's two games that they should probably be favorite. I think they're gonna be favored in a lot of games.

[Zach Lowe]

You know what? I'm changing my pick. I'm going over.

[Joe House]

Wow.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm changing it. I'm doing my first mid street. He did it already.

[Joe House]

I did.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm doing my first.

[Joe House]

Mine was open.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm doing my first mid range. Mid range. Midstream change. I'm going over 56 and a half.

[Joe House]

It's just too many.

[Zach Lowe]

It's. There's too many, like, wins to grab against 34 win mediocrities across the conference. I'm going over on Cleveland. Sorry, Caps fans.

[Bill Simmons]

You coward.

[Zach Lowe]

I just. I didn't feel great about it from the beginning. I'm going over.

[Bill Simmons]

The east is lousy. Over is the right move. Detroit is over 46 and a half and they were 44 and 38 last year. They added Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, Jeff Green.

[Joe House]

Still in the league.

[Bill Simmons]

Javante Green.

[Zach Lowe]

Yeah, definitely not Jeff Green.

[Bill Simmons]

I wrote down Green. They hadn't agreed. You said Jeff Green. Javante Green. Javante Green. AJ Some Green. Gerald Green.

[Joe House]

No, AJ Green's on.

[Bill Simmons]

Not Draymond Green.

[Zach Lowe]

Milwaukee, AC Green.

[Bill Simmons]

They lost Tim Hardaway. They lost Schroeder. They lost Fontechio and almost definitely lost Malik Beasley. There's still a chance. Maybe he comes back on a short contract because they have some rights with that. This is a team that's being thrown into a lot of taking a leap conversations and I'll just start. I'll start us off. Normally I like to throw it, but I don't really see it with Detroit. I thought the for the 44 and 38 last year was a little deceiving because they played hard every game and that, you know, there was some schedule stuff with it, and Cade was really good and it was exciting to watch, but I think they're worse than they were last year. I'm not a huge levert guy. Robinson. Miami quit on 14 times over the last five years, and I thought their vets, like, really mattered to them with some of those games. They look good in that Knicks series. I like Cade, like Dern. Obviously Ivey's coming back, which would be like the other factor you would say. The only way I see it is if there's some giant USAir Thompson leap that I think people really seem to want to happen. But 47 felt rich to me, and I'm kind of leaning toward under. Where'd you stand, Zach?

[Zach Lowe]

First of all, Asar Thompson is my pick for most improved player, so I'm excited about it.

[Bill Simmons]

That would help.

[Joe House]

This is fun.

[Zach Lowe]

And he missed. He'd actually played more than I thought last year. He only missed 23 games, I think, but he didn't play a ton of minutes. Other than Ivy and him, they were very, very healthy last year. And other than Ivy, they had Schroeder for a lot of the year to sort of make up for that.

[Bill Simmons]

Who was pretty important for them in those last few months, like, yeah, and the playoffs.

[Zach Lowe]

I am. I'm bullish on Detroit's like medium term future. I think last year was pretty real. I think the playoff toughness was pretty real. I ended up going under just because I can see this being one of those, like, well, development's not always linear in terms of win total. Sometimes you have like a little step back or a little plateau along the way on your rise up to something. I think we're a year away from the rise. And ironing out the offensive kinks I think is going to be the story of the season. Duran, Asar, they don't have a lot of three point shooting. They were a very high turnover team. I don't know how much of that they can really fix. So I can see another year just like last year. So I'm going under.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Somewhere in the mid-40s. And then bringing back Ivy, who I think is going to be extension eligible in a year.

[Zach Lowe]

But it's now, now he's. He and Duran are extension eligible now.

[Bill Simmons]

And it's Cade's team. You got to slide him in. What do you see?

[Joe House]

House? The single biggest actor for me is the Beasley thing. He was unbelievable from three last year and that was really important to them. He was one of the three best three point shooters in the entire NBA. Malik Beasley.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Joe House]

And it was very quiet.

[Bill Simmons]

And one of the worst gamblers. We don't know.

[Joe House]

Not proven. Nothing proven. This is just allegations.

[Bill Simmons]

Just allegations.

[Joe House]

And I think that that's not like, oh, we just acquired Duncan Robinson and we fixed it. And some of that offensive stuff. Caris Lavert will fill in some of those blanks. I like this to win 46 games. I like this team to win more than they want.

[Bill Simmons]

Half under.

[Joe House]

And it's an under, right? Yeah. Because 46 is not a bad record in the east and it's still an under. So it's an under. The Jaden, you guys already said it's like, tell me how Jaden Ivey's going to play. Like, tell me what his impact will be.

[Zach Lowe]

I think Jaden, Jaden Ivey will be fine.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Zach Lowe]

Shot catch and shoot threes really well. Yeah, I like Lavert and Robinson better than you guys. I don't think they've lost as much from the be the Beasley volume. Duncan Robinson won't be able to duplicate but like he's a little bit of a better passer. Like two man game with Duran. I could see okay because Lavert had.

[Bill Simmons]

Cleveland winning with him being like I think we can do better. That makes me nervous. I thought he was very ball stoppy.

[Zach Lowe]

Wild card here, as you have mentioned in the west part is do they make some sort of massive move in the middle of the season to win now and that could vault them over to the over. But I'm not. I think actually just we'll see what they do. But I'm. I don't feel great, but I'm going a little under.

[Bill Simmons]

So just a tiny bit. Slight unders for all of us and the marketing trade could really fuck it up.

[Joe House]

Yeah, sure.

[Bill Simmons]

If they just come in in February. Coming hot.

[Zach Lowe]

This is the sequel to all of us being over on the Clippers. I'm surprised all of us are under on the Pistons.

[Bill Simmons]

They feel like every year there's a team and weirdly it was Orlando last year who had the year from hell. But there's always a team that people just vault to the next level even though we haven't really seen it. And a lot of it is you kind of have to look at the circumstance from the previous season and I thought 44 and 38. To me they were a.500 team that played hard and were fun to watch. We'll see. I also like this next team a lot more. Just spoiler alert. The Milwaukee bucks over under 42 and a half. They are 20 to one to win the conference, which is the eighth best odds in the East. Even though they have the best player in the conference in Giannis. Minus 215 for the playoffs. They were 48 and 34 last year. They turned Lopez into Miles Turner, they turned Dame lowered into Cole Anthony and they turned Connaughton into Coffey and Harris. And they're deep and they're a sneaky. Great shooting team, Zach.

[Zach Lowe]

Great. Didn't take a lot but they were the number one three point shooting team.

[Bill Simmons]

By percentage 38.5 last year. They had Prince, Green, Porter, Trenton, rollins all over 40%. Turner was at 39.6, Porter's 37. Dame was actually lower than all those numbers and. And they have shooting and they have Giannis. And this number is dumbfounding to me because I don't think they're trading Giannis this season. And I just don't see a world where this isn't like a 46 win team.

[Zach Lowe]

Well, look, I mean, what do they win last year? 48.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Zach Lowe]

And they added Thanasis and Alex at Tentokounmpo and no brainer.

[Bill Simmons]

And Russell Westbrook had 10 Tompa Kumpo.

[Joe House]

Talk about a freak off. We, this is all the freaks are in Milwaukee.

[Bill Simmons]

Literal freak off.

[Joe House]

It's a G rated freak off. It's the real freak off right here in Milwaukee town now. I think this team actually makes more sense than last year's team. I think that, like the version of this team. Now I got hammered. I want to like right hand up. I got smashed at the outset of the playoffs because this version of Milwaukee, with all those shooters going up against Indiana, I thought that that freak was going to be able to assert his will and this. And the shooters on Milwaukee would keep them in. And the Pacers ran them the fuck off the floor and I lost a bunch of money. But I still think that the core identity of this Milwaukee team, like Turner coming in, makes it, makes it absolutely seamless. He's an improvement over Brook Lopez.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, a huge improvement. I didn't think Brook was good last year.

[Zach Lowe]

He was fine. I think where I would disagree with you is that, like, who do, who do I want dribbling the basketball other than Giannis? And at least I had like another guy to do that with Dame last year in a pick and roll combination that made sense. Kevin Porter Jr. Is probably a little overtaxed in the role he's going to get. Same with Ryan Rollins. But as long as you. I mean, like. And Giannis typically plays about 65ish games. So, like the remaining 15 to 20 are going to be big for how much if, if or how much they go over this number. I am also an over Giannis. Plus shooting just makes a lot of sense to me. If he gets to 65, 70 games, I'm desperate.

[Bill Simmons]

Giannis, well, this is my back is to the wall career wise. And I've thought about this all summer and I'm tired of losing on this.

[Zach Lowe]

Kuzma can't be worse, I think. I think Jericho Sims is like a decent backup center.

[Joe House]

I agree.

[Zach Lowe]

And again. But the wild card is like, is there a world where this goes really south and Giannis is not on the team after the trade deadline? I agree with you. I think that's much more likely to be an off season thing than an in season thing. So I am taking without much thought actually, this is an aggressive over for me.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I have it. As I'm locking it down.

[Joe House]

So am I.

[Zach Lowe]

Triple lock, triple lock, triple lock. It's on my locks.

[Joe House]

It's Tuesday, October 14th. We're taping this podcast Doc Rivers birthday. Triple lock on. How about triple lock on Doc Rivers birthday.

[Bill Simmons]

Everyone invested in this needs the bucks to win basketball games. They have no picks. Doc Rivers doesn't. I mean he left Boston the moment they were even hitting a rebuilding. Like he doesn't want to rebuild with anybody. Giannis, if he's going to be there, is going to try to win every game possible. Miles Turner just signed this deal and is pissed at Indiana and he's going to want to beat everybody too. They also a lot of the guys in this rotation are still like chip on their shoulder. Nobody believes in me. Why don't people think I'm good? Guys like Kevin Porter, what the fuck has he ever done? Like he's still playing like he's proven himself. Trent over and over again gets discounted in free agency. Portis like he's born with that chip.

[Zach Lowe]

Cole Anthony, I bought like I was the sixth man of the year candidate like a hot minute ago.

[Joe House]

I was giving away.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm, I think Cole Anthony could play crunch time for them. I like, I like that Rollins. I thought he was pretty good for them last year. And Green is just like the one thing we've seen with shooters like that. They get better every year that they're in the league. Right. They always go up and I thought he was good last year. I think this team's going to be good.

[Zach Lowe]

He's A.J. green's a good player. Great chemistry with Giannis. Portis is just rock steady offense off the bench. We barely even mention him. We take him for granted because he just does what he does. I think I'm stunned that this line is so low. Like I, I, I don't think the trade is priced that was happening.

[Bill Simmons]

I really think that's it. I think people think he's just going to ask for a deal. I have them. I think they're either fourth or fifth in the East. I, I have them. Or Atlanta.

[Joe House]

Sure.

[Bill Simmons]

Four or five. I think they are not a playing team. I think they're a four.

[Joe House]

That makes tons of sense.

[Zach Lowe]

I agree. They're top six for me for sure.

[Joe House]

We're all in agreement.

[Bill Simmons]

So I did write down if we did get to vote for. I assume you're going to get your vote back would be my guess.

[Zach Lowe]

I haven't asked for it.

[Bill Simmons]

But if you don't, you don't want the vote anymore, do you?

[Zach Lowe]

I mean there's. I'm torn, but we'll see how it.

[Joe House]

You know, if you don't have the vote, you can gamble. That's why nobody offered it to me. But I'm.

[Bill Simmons]

If they added an LVP award for most damaging player who played at least 25 minutes on a playoff team. Don't do this to Kyle Kuzma's -250. I can't even think who would be another like heavy, prohibitive favorite.

[Zach Lowe]

He's not. That's not him. He's not. I know. He became a punchline last year. Like he's not a bad NBA player. He's going to bounce back this year.

[Bill Simmons]

You're predicting the Kuzma bounce back.

[Zach Lowe]

Kuzma bounce back when I hit the.

[Bill Simmons]

Legacy button or not. 2020 champion legacy button.

[Joe House]

The Kuzma legacy.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, they need him. Because if he actually can be somewhat what he looked like three years ago before House's wizards contaminated him.

[Joe House]

Well, he not contaminated.

[Bill Simmons]

He got bit by a spider.

[Joe House]

He was his own. You know, it was a self sabotage alongside what was happening with the team. The problem with him, what happened is that he checked the fuck out two years ago. And you can't flip a switch in. In this league and show up with a team that's contending and beget your head. Right. For. For contending. So we're going to see this off season with this group. Is his head in the right place?

[Bill Simmons]

I'm proud that we got through this whole segment without talking about Giannis's future and where he's going to go.

[Zach Lowe]

Well, we kind of did. We talked around it.

[Joe House]

You have a whole season to do that. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

If there was one team. If we're wrong and he gets traded during the season, you can only pick one team that that trade would happen to. What is the team?

[Zach Lowe]

Do I have to go first?

[Bill Simmons]

I'll go first. Go ahead, San Antonio.

[Joe House]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Cause I don't think the Knicks. I just don't think it's an appetizing trade for the Bucks. I'm not trading Giannis for what the Knicks are offering.

[Zach Lowe]

Houston.

[Joe House]

Good. So you guys took one and two.

[Bill Simmons]

So what's that trade, Shengun? I don't know it.

[Zach Lowe]

You just asked me to name a team. Stop there. I'm not going any further.

[Bill Simmons]

Shengoon.

[Joe House]

Mine is Reed Shepherd. Oklahoma City.

[Zach Lowe]

That's insane.

[Joe House]

Okay. Just saying they have the picks and the players.

[Bill Simmons]

Presti's even more risk averse than Zach.

[Joe House]

They have. What's, what's the risk of taking on Giannis?

[Zach Lowe]

They just won the championship.

[Bill Simmons]

We all pick, we all pick them to lock in over 62 and a half wins. What are they trading for Giannis?

[Joe House]

Does Giannis hurt that? Giannis said it diminishes their win potential.

[Bill Simmons]

I feel comfortable predicting that he will not get traded to okc.

[Joe House]

That's fine.

[Bill Simmons]

Reporting that right now purely on the espn.

[Joe House]

It's a ridiculous exercise. So I gave an answer.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't think San Antonio is ridicul.

[Zach Lowe]

It's not.

[Joe House]

It's not.

[Bill Simmons]

I think that's the team that makes a ton of sense. And by the way, Giannis and Wemby on the same team is an absolute. Like Zach putting the microphone down, walking away, doing like a couple laps and doing this a few times.

[Joe House]

You, you, that's all fine, but just acknowledge that that is an enormous fuck you to Milwaukee. There's nothing they're getting back from San Antonio other than we'll be good in five years. Guys will be good again in five years.

[Bill Simmons]

Fox can be in that trade.

[Zach Lowe]

I was going to say, and we'll.

[Joe House]

Be good again in five years.

[Bill Simmons]

Castle could be in that trade.

[Joe House]

We'll be good again in the east in three years.

[Bill Simmons]

There's a bunch of picks that could go in that trade.

[Joe House]

That's what I mean. That's what I'm saying.

[Bill Simmons]

Kelly Olenek could be in that trade.

[Joe House]

I love Kelly Olenek.

[Bill Simmons]

Luke Cornett on top of Cornet can hang it up. Don't mention Luke Cornett.

[Joe House]

One of the best eaters in the NBA. Kelly Olenek.

[Bill Simmons]

Our next team is the Indiana Pacers. The over under was at 38 and a half. It dropped to 37 and a half and now it is at a comfortable 36 and a half. I think because, oh, I remember. Tyrese Halburn's out for the year. That probably hurts it. McConnell's out for the first month, it looks like. And they lost Miles Turner to the, to the, to the bucks. They were 15, 32 last year. So this would be a 14 win drop. If you think they're going under. They are plus 154 for the playoffs. They're plus 110 for the play in. They are 35 to 1 for the conference. They do have their own first round pick and I'm going to do my first. Are we sure of either. Over, under, pod. Are we sure the Pacers aren't going to be pretty good?

[Zach Lowe]

So you're going over? I mean, I'm not sure this was one of my toughest ones because the line is very low. 36 and a half. And I will say this for the Pacers, and this is relevant on the flip side to some other teams we're going to talk about. Yeah, they lost Halliburton. Their whole identity is wrapped up in how he plays and particularly how he plays with a stretch center who they also lost and are replacing with a mishmash of guys who are not quite that player. All that said, this is a bunch of serious fucking dudes who care about the right things. You will never hear anything on this, and a serious coach, you will never hear anything on this team about. This guy's hogging the ball. There's a little Matherin, like, he fit in the identity. But this guy's shirking his responsibility on defense. This guy's not executing the scheme. This guy's being selfish. There's just none of that on the team. It's a team of serious adult basketball players, and that gets you pretty far in the East. So that's my answer to, like, I'm not sure that they're not going to be pretty good or they're. Whatever the double negative I just said was that said, I am going under on 36 and a half. I just think they lost. I think they lost so much of their identity.

[Bill Simmons]

Zach Zag, I love it.

[Zach Lowe]

They lost so much of their identity, so much. Their style of play, their full court press is not going to take everyone off guard like it did last year. McConnell's already injured. Their margin for, like, any more injuries is pretty slim. Can Nemhardt really be, like a co number one option and guard the best guy on the other team? Like, how long can he sustain that? And if we're five games under.500, we do, thanks to the Pelicans, by the way, own our pick. And we don't own it every year going forward. There are some years they don't own it because of the Pascal trade. Is there some, you know, reverse incentive? So I'm going under. Sorry, Pacers.

[Bill Simmons]

This was one of the controversial over unders just in general.

[Joe House]

House. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

What do you have?

[Joe House]

I have them over because 37 is such a low bar in the east and Zach made a compelling case. The case for why I. This team is not showing up to roll over. They get derailed with any more injuries. They cannot have any more Injuries. But I have Benedict Matheran in my most improved. Like, I'm looking hot and heavy at those.

[Bill Simmons]

Great job. Has to be.

[Zach Lowe]

He.

[Joe House]

He gets the touches.

[Bill Simmons]

I really like it.

[Joe House]

The touches are the thing that translate into him getting his head right. Because, Zach, you kind of alluded to it a little bit, like, where is this guy? Is he want to. You know, where is. Exactly. He thinks he should get the ball more than he does. Well, that's, like, not a concern this year.

[Bill Simmons]

He's 14 to 1 on Fandos. Second best odds.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Zach Lowe]

Wow. Really? Yeah. Who's number one?

[Bill Simmons]

Thompson plus 8. 50. And your guy? His brother is 20 to 1. I'll book all Nicola Jovic 25 to 1 bets if you guys want to make those with me directly.

[Zach Lowe]

You know who else is a serious basketball player? Pascal Siakam. Serious.

[Joe House]

There we go.

[Zach Lowe]

Doesn't. Doesn't play selfishly. Plays hard all the time. Serious dude. Bunch of serious dudes. Narrator. Neesmith Nismith Island. That was an island. Serious dude.

[Bill Simmons]

Boy, did we clean up on Neesmith Island. I'm going over. I think this team just has a bunch of professional dudes who really got a taste of it for a long, prolonged stretch of time last year and really understood this is the level it needs to be at. This feels great to be here. I don't want to lose this. I was watching the preseason San Antonio, Indiana last night. Just Toppin. Toppin's going to play more minutes this year. Toppin's, like, ready for it. Toppin's good. You think? Toppin's like, oh, no, we lost Miles Turner. He's like, fuck that. More minutes for me. Siakam Neesmith Matheran. You think? He's, like, super upset that he's going to be getting all the Tyrese Halbert and touches for six months.

[Joe House]

Contract year.

[Zach Lowe]

Matheran could be.

[Bill Simmons]

Love them hard. I'm excited to see what he can do with more stuff. I always like Jairus Walker. Yeah, I've been kind of mentioning that for the last two years. I really want to see what happens with him. And I guess the thing for me is can they kind of mismatch Phil the Turner stuff with Toppin, with Isaiah Jackson, with Huff. Can they just kind of piece together a facsimile of his numbers and not a facsimile, A facsimile.

[Joe House]

Facsimile.

[Bill Simmons]

Facsimile.

[Zach Lowe]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm sorry. Was that ignominious?

[Joe House]

Well, you're gonna.

[Zach Lowe]

It's where fax machine comes from. Facsimile.

[Bill Simmons]

Facsimile. I think they could patch together his numbers on offense. I don't. Defense probably won't be the same but he was a real liability in that OKC series. Um, I like Huff. I really like Carlisle. My biggest fear is beyond Halberton. Can they survive the loss of James Johnson? What he brought knowing that you're winning any bench clearing brawl so you can be aggressive because James Johnson's right there. He's your double deuce bouncer. Um, I am. I'm a hard over and it's a borderline lock for me. Wow. Yeah.

[Joe House]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

I think they're going to be good.

[Zach Lowe]

I don't. It doesn't feel good to me to take the under on a team of serious professional basketball players. I'm just. I'm doing it anyway.

[Bill Simmons]

There's something about the season after an overachieving team that had some sort of bad something somebody left, somebody got injured, whatever. But there's still the DNA of like what it took to get to where you got the year before. That I think carries over. I really do.

[Zach Lowe]

Okay.

[Joe House]

Strong agree with that.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I think they're. I think they're going to be in above.500.

[Joe House]

You're only asking me to win 37 games.

[Zach Lowe]

My thing was how much of the DNA is Halliburton.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. I would argue the DNA is more from Carlisle and that style they had with all these ball handlers, all this pressure, all this unselfishness. It's a little like what I. Not to step on the Celtics section, but I think the Celtics had a real style and a system that even if you take Tatum out of it, which is awful, he's one of the best six players in the league. They're still going to shoot threes. They're still going to have guys who do certain things and they still know who they are. I like when teams know who they are compared to like a Sacramento, I guess I take one more shot at them.

[Zach Lowe]

Do they know who they are or are they just tough mentally and physically? Like who are they Without Tyrese Halliburton and Miles Turner, I don't know who they are.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I think shepherd is going to.

[Zach Lowe]

Have to step up. Serious dude.

[Bill Simmons]

And then Matheran. Basically those guys are going to split the minutes for the Halburn 30 plus minutes a game. I don't know. I think they're going to be good.

[Zach Lowe]

You guys are making me feel bad.

[Joe House]

That's not the point.

[Bill Simmons]

Don't worry. You can make fun of me for this next one. The Chicago Bulls 32 and a half last year they were 39 and 43. They lost Lonzo Ball and added Isaac Okoro plus a lottery pick who won't play playoffs. Plus 320. Year two of Boozelis, they went 17 and 10 after the All Star break and then the 10th net rating in the league. So House, why would they go 32 and 50 in a worse east with guys that are a year older?

[Joe House]

I don't think they are. I'm not taking the under on this team. Billy Donovan, nine of the last 10 seasons has won at least 39 games. This franchise has given us no indication that they intend to rewrite the play in purgatory that they are in. That is their playbook.

[Bill Simmons]

It's the safest non tanking Bet in the NBA because they just want to go 40 and 42 every year for.

[Joe House]

The rest of the tournament. They want to go to the play in and lose Miami. That is the goal of the Chicago Bulls. They are perfectly aligned to meet that goal this season. I am taking the over on The Chicago Bulls.

[Bill Simmons]

40 and 42 is 62 and 20.

[Joe House]

It's exactly right.

[Zach Lowe]

I think the better question is why is this line so low For a team that's won 40, 39 and 39, why is the line so low? I actually think the line is very well placed. I think this team is going to win fewer games than it did last year despite the bulk of the team being young. I think the roster is just full of question marks on the wing almost across the board. Vucc's defense is getting worse and worse every year.

[Bill Simmons]

Defense is better.

[Zach Lowe]

I don't know how they build a competent defense out of this team. I don't know how they build above average offense out of this team. But 32 and a half is just too low. It's too low for a team that's gonna run like hell to try to get to that third magical 38, 39 win mark in the play in. So I'm going over but I think the line is is shrewd. I think this is a worse. Like I'm going over and I see like 34 and 48.

[Bill Simmons]

I thought the line should have been 34 and a half. I thought you're getting two free wins. One. One thing I like about this team as a bad team is they actually know who they are. They have a style. I went to that Laker game last year when they just ran up and down and tried to run the Lakers off the court.

[Zach Lowe]

I think the giddy heave was that game.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, yeah. The giddy White together. I really like Bozelis.

[Zach Lowe]

Me too.

[Joe House]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

And I think there's a little under the hood with him to kind of bump this up. And. And they have more of a bench this year. I mean, even having guys like Herder and Zach Collins, like, these guys are at least like a coros 10th, 11, okoros. These guys are like rotation guys, bench capable.

[Zach Lowe]

I think it's an easy over at the. At this number. If you had set the over at 38 and a half, I would have been an under at that. At that. Which is where it should be based on what they've done the past few years. Interesting that the line is solo. They were also 29, 40 last year. Finished 10 and 3 against a pretty angel food cake schedule. So there's some, like, Microsoft.

[Bill Simmons]

That's the thing. We know. They don't tank. They, for whatever reason, don't believe in tanking. I said it's like one of those rom coms that come on Netflix that my wife is trying to decide whether she should click on it or not. And the thumbnail has Kate Mara, Patrick Dempsey, and Connie Britton. And my wife's like, huh, I kind of like all three of those people, but I've never heard of this movie. Should I click on this? Is this movie good? I'm like, I don't know. First of all, that's a 34 and 48 team.

[Zach Lowe]

You guys, stop right now.

[Bill Simmons]

Connie Britton.

[Zach Lowe]

You cannot disparage Connie Britton. You cannot. Dartmouth College's own Connie Britton with anybody on the Chicago Bulls roster.

[Joe House]

Don't do it.

[Zach Lowe]

Take it back. Delete it from the PODC. Mrs. Coach.

[Bill Simmons]

Mrs. Coach.

[Zach Lowe]

I won't have it. I won't have it.

[Joe House]

All right.

[Zach Lowe]

You want to compare her to, you know, an all star? Fine.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay.

[Zach Lowe]

Not. Not anyone on this team.

[Bill Simmons]

Last 10 years, the Bulls are 349 and 444.

[Joe House]

Great. Mission accomplished.

[Bill Simmons]

Sixth worst record. The other five teams are all in the East. Pistons, number one. Wizards, two. Hornets, three. Magic, four. Nets, five. Bulls, six. The six worst teams in the league the last 10 years.

[Zach Lowe]

The Kings not being on that list is one of the greatest upsets that I can like what?

[Joe House]

They lit the beam.

[Zach Lowe]

But we're all over.

[Joe House]

We're all over on the Bulls.

[Bill Simmons]

My stock guy.

[Joe House]

Oh.

[Bill Simmons]

Bozellus? Really? Bazelles Island? Well, Zach's right here.

[Zach Lowe]

Not everything can be an island. Everybody loves Bozelas.

[Bill Simmons]

Zach said there's no value. Okay? Not everything can be an island. How dare you? Is there. Do we. Are we going to have one island we're going to create this year.

[Zach Lowe]

If you want to create an island.

[Bill Simmons]

I do want to create an island this year.

[Zach Lowe]

How about you create Dale and Terry Island? Julian Phillips Island. Those are islands.

[Bill Simmons]

Those are.

[Joe House]

Those are islands.

[Bill Simmons]

I have a couple Celtics islands.

[Zach Lowe]

Pat Williams Island. Pat Williams island had a decent population for a while. It's deserted.

[Joe House]

It is, yeah.

[Zach Lowe]

Floating off the. Off the coast.

[Bill Simmons]

Nothing. Josh. Minot island might come up later.

[Joe House]

Oh, God.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, so we're all going over on the Bulls. Over, over, over.

[Zach Lowe]

Wow, it's a sad state of affairs.

[Bill Simmons]

The New York Knicks are coming up after we take a break. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA season is coming. FanDuel is the place to let you play your game. Everything. Everything. They have to get you ready for the season. We're gonna be talking about a lot on the podcast for not just today, but the rest of the week and next week. Cool bets, season leaders, player specials, win totals, exact team outcomes, playoff parlays. You can go nuts. Even better, you can parlay your favorite bets together for an even bigger payout. Take a flyer on the MVP race, crown your champion October parlay or playoff. Dark horses. We're gonna be doing our season future boost. We're trying to figure this out during the over under pods. FanDuel is gonna have it. I'll talk about it on my Thursday podcast. We like to put with win totals. 40 plus wins, 45 plus wins, 50 plus wins. Put them together and we're on a win streak. We lost last year because of the stupid Suns, but we're going to win this year. So get ready for our boost announced on Thursday's pod. Visit FanDuel.com BSToday and you can start planning your futures bets now. FanDuel player game. The Atlantic Division. The New York knicks over under 52 and a half. Minus 250 for the division, plus 380 for the conference. 11 to one to win the title, plus 280 for the one seed house. They added Yabaselli, who we all love. Whatever's left of Malcolm Brogdon, whatever's left of Jordan Clarkson. They lost precious Achua and they exchanged Tibbs for Mike Brown. Will that solve this? Solve whatever's alien? The next act Lowe.

[Zach Lowe]

I don't know what it will solve. You know, it's one of those things you could kind of see coming based on how the Indiana series was going. I'm just gonna come out and just say right now they were also like, they were Pretty healthy last year with their core guys. But I'm going to, I'm just going to lead with it. I've seen a lot of unders on this number. A lot of the projection systems are under. It's a big number. What did they win last year? 51 games.

[Bill Simmons]

51 and 31.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm going over on the Knicks. I feel good about it. I think this is. There's this line of thinking like well you know, a Tibbs team always maximizes regular season win totals. He overplays everybody, blah blah blah. There's probably going to be a regression this year. I think this team is deeper. I think the core holdover guys are pretty hungry to prove hey, we're not just like some sort of paper tiger from the East. We're a real team. We get more continuity. We got Kat in the door right before the season started. I know it's a big number. Like I feel pretty good going over on 52 and a half. I think the Knicks are going to win more games than that.

[Joe House]

It is a lock over for me. Wow. I think this Knicks team is loaded. I am putting. It's a two unit play on the one seed for me. I think the Knicks are the best team and in the east and I think this, that the two things about what Zach just said that resonate. Mike Brown is going to come in and immediately free up some aspects of the offense. Their bench I think averaged under 22 points a game last year. They had, you know, scoring wise one of the most bereft benches in the league in terms of scoring talent. They have addressed that. They have adults. And I think that, that the bit that we saw with Brunson injured in the run up to the playoffs, the onset of the playoffs where that that team got a little more diverse on offense, I think that that clicks. That works with a Mike Brown offense and I think that that's going to translate into regular season wins. I think they are built for it. I think it's going to be a New York party all season long this upcoming season. It's a lock for the K N I C K S Mitch Robb.

[Zach Lowe]

Can we get like a real season out of him? That's a game changer in terms of just their versatility on both ends of the floor. I just, I've. I've seen a lot of the projection systems be low on the Knicks. I'm the opposite.

[Bill Simmons]

I test drove it. I really tried to talk myself into it. Cause I had, I felt like I had one too many overs and you Just go back to last year that the Towns trade happens like right before the season, basically. And Mitch doesn't play for two thirds of the season. And their bench was fucking awful. They still won 51 games.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And I think Yavicelli is really good. Like I. I don't know why more teams weren't on him. I thought. I really like Cornett too, but Cornett going for twice the price of Yabaselli I thought was crazy. I also think there's some McBride stuff with them that they can unlock because as a Celtic fan going against them, I was happy when they would take him out. And there's some. There's some. Him and Brunson together. Stuff I think they could do. I don't know. I just. Him. I don't think Brogdon has anything left. I guess we'll find out spot minutes.

[Joe House]

And he's smart. He's not a big dummy.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe he's not a dummy.

[Zach Lowe]

I do think.

[Bill Simmons]

And then Shame it found himself in the playoffs a little bit. So maybe they have 10 guys.

[Zach Lowe]

I like Shame it. I. It's confusing to me that Shamet can never hold down. Like you can't just be a consistent 10th man. Like no one seems to trust. But I like him. I like him for this team.

[Bill Simmons]

There's home court advantage too with them. And the tips thing was just super weird last year. It was weird to watch in person. He was playing everybody too many minutes. The only thing that really worried me was if the Giannis thing goes bad and all that rumor stuff starts and trades and just this team being in trade, rumors could undermine something. I always feel like we underrate that. It would always happen with LeBron teams where starting December, January, February, these guys were just being rumors. And then you could see how it would affect the team towns in Anobi would be the natural, some sort of piece for Giannis. And it's just if they're just going to be in rumors from January on, I think that fucks the team up. But I don't think it's going to be enough to. In a bad east. They 54, 55 feels right, right?

[Joe House]

Yeah. And this is, you know, like they're. It's a. It's an organization that's all on the same page. It's the caa, right? It's the CAA organization. Everybody's seeing eye to eye. There isn't any backstabbing, there isn't going to be any undermining.

[Bill Simmons]

You're just trying to suck up to Vino right now.

[Joe House]

Well, I mean, I always suck up to Vino because I was saying, how else am I going to get a beautiful master's vest out of, you know, right. With the CA logo on it? But there is something.

[Zach Lowe]

House can be bought.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know.

[Joe House]

That is right hand up. I think. Yes. There's something to be said for that institutional stability and Mike Brown. That fit, like there's a fit to the whole thing.

[Bill Simmons]

There's going to be a real energy around this team this year, especially if. If Cleveland starts out a little gamey, if. If the bucks start out 9 and 10.

[Zach Lowe]

This is the most exciting slash pressurized New York Knicks season from the jump since Patrick Ewing's prime.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, this is a big.

[Zach Lowe]

That's what's at stake.

[Bill Simmons]

And that's the thing. Those Knicks teams would go 16, 22, 59 and 23. Whatever. All right, we're all online.

[Joe House]

Wow. Lock on the knees.

[Zach Lowe]

For sure. Somebody would be.

[Bill Simmons]

I really want. I tried. I test drove it. I looked at. I just couldn't get there.

[Zach Lowe]

What? Pelton. Some of the projections are like, oh, sure.

[Bill Simmons]

The problem is when you actually start looking at their schedule and you're like, well, they're going to be favored by 11 in that one. They'll be favored by 15 in that one. They'll be Favored by 8 there. This will be more fun. The Philadelphia 76ers for the record.

[Zach Lowe]

Pelton has then projected 47 wins. The Knicks, crazy. Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Philadelphia 42 and a half plus 490 for the division, 131 for the conference, minus 240 for the playoffs. They were 24 and 58 during a tanktastic 20, 24, 25 campaign. They added VJ Edgecomb. They lost Yabicelli. They're getting Embiid back. We think McCain's hurt already for a while. When does McCain come back?

[Zach Lowe]

That's going to be unclear. I don't think it's too. Too long.

[Joe House]

Yeah, it's not like into December, the end of November.

[Bill Simmons]

There's a scenario where this team embiid, who's skinnier. We should mention we're skinny Embiid and some guards and a slightly rejuvenated Paul George and stuff's happening. There's also a scenario where the coach and GM are just getting cleaned out in like January. If you had to pick one of those two scenarios, what would you pick? Zach, you have to pick one.

[Zach Lowe]

What was the first one?

[Bill Simmons]

First one is skinny and beads some guards. The vibes are good. Didn't realize Paul George had this much left in the tank. Oh. Can kind of see the vision.

[Zach Lowe]

I think that's a little more likely than everyone gets fired in December, January. I don't. I don't particularly think either one is likely, but we'll get there.

[Bill Simmons]

Great. What do you got? What do you got for this team?

[Zach Lowe]

There's almost no number that's realistic that you could have given me where I would take the over. I just can't do it. I'm sorry. Like, I can't. I can't do it. I get the upside scenarios. Yeah, I get that they shot. Like, I looked this up yesterday because last year you can point to the missed games, and they missed a ton of games. Everyone knows that last year was also the first year that they were not good with Embiid on the floor. Like, it was the first year that they were either neutral or, like, with. With all three of Embiid. And George and Maxi, they were plus two with Embiid on the plus two. Like, total points. So, like, neutral.

[Bill Simmons]

You know what the big reason for that was other than that he was hurt and seemingly out of shape.

[Zach Lowe]

Yeah, he wasn't the same guy.

[Bill Simmons]

He doesn't protect the rim anywhere.

[Zach Lowe]

Well, look, I'm just saying the rim.

[Bill Simmons]

Protection stats with him were terrible last year.

[Zach Lowe]

And pg, for as disappointing as he was, it wasn't like he became abysmal. He 16 a game, 43% shooting, 36% on threes. Like, it's kind of what you would expect for a player entering the tail end of their time in the NBA in his mid-30s. It's a low number. I just cannot in good conscience go over it. I just can't. I don't trust the infrastructure. And I say that like, I looked this up. This is what I looked up. They shot 29.8% on threes in Embiid's minutes last year. Like, that's unthinkably bad and should be a case for some encouraging. I just.

[Bill Simmons]

How can.

[Zach Lowe]

How can anyone bet the over on this team right now?

[Bill Simmons]

Embiid, 11 years, 452 games, House, 31 years old, never made the Eastern Conference finals, won five playoff series total.

[Joe House]

I think it's better to go to the gas station and get a scratch ticket than to bet on this team going over.

[Zach Lowe]

I wouldn't bet anything on this team. I wouldn't bet any. It's a complete stay away, over, under, anything. But we have to make a non bet. I'm picking under, but it's a complete stay away for me.

[Joe House]

I would go to the Wawa the Philadelphia Wawa and grab a nice scratcher. I would get a hundred dollars worth of scratches and try and oh well, that's not a Philadelphia accent I can't do.

[Bill Simmons]

I will say Embiid being in better shape this year I think is encouraging.

[Joe House]

He's listed day to day right now. So is Paul George.

[Bill Simmons]

That part's not encouraging. Day to day hard under for all of us.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm not locking it.

[Joe House]

It's not hard.

[Zach Lowe]

It's not a lot.

[Bill Simmons]

I just had a hard under.

[Joe House]

Who the hell knows what's going to happen.

[Bill Simmons]

I thought about locking a scratch ticket. The Embiid thing's too bad. I know we've been critical on him on all the pods but it just was more fun when he was really good. It was fun to have a guy like that in the league that on any night might drop 60 on a Tuesday night on league pass And I know the ERA is kind of over now but.

[Zach Lowe]

Well, let's.

[Joe House]

Let's press the legacy button. If he plays 60 games. No, he needs 65 to be quite to qualify.

[Zach Lowe]

He's not going to play 60.

[Joe House]

I don't think so.

[Bill Simmons]

It's impossible. They'd expect Green come out for a.

[Zach Lowe]

Minute back to back. So you're already subtracting.

[Joe House]

Okay, so he's.

[Bill Simmons]

For a minute then sit him down AC Green style.

[Joe House]

He's not going to be eligible for any of the awards. That's the reason, the only reason I mentioned 65. But if he plays 58 games, 55 games and this team gets through the east with 44 wins or whatever and then he and Paul George are both healthy and Jared McCain and Maxi are healthy and Edgecomb is a revelation and they arrive at the playoffs and they win the first two rounds of the playoffs because they get to play depleted Milwaukee or depleted Indiana something like that. Toronto, who's made the push up and they're into the Eastern Conference finals. Is there something we're going to. We're going to say nice things about Joel Embiid.

[Zach Lowe]

Of course. Eastern Conference finals.

[Bill Simmons]

That all sounds great.

[Zach Lowe]

They've literally never been to the Eastern Conference finals in Joel Ms. That's why.

[Joe House]

I said it's why I'm saying I.

[Zach Lowe]

Think their ceiling is we get to the end of the season and they're like a nobody wants to play us team in the first round of the playoffs. I can't anything beyond that. My soul is too injured to even imagine at this point.

[Bill Simmons]

Completely understand when you're sailing is hopefully we can become and nobody wants to play us nine seed. I'm going under.

[Zach Lowe]

It's just the repetitive knee injuries are scary for the best player on the team.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm just too old now. And so are you. Haas, with basketball. We've just seen too many seasons. We know how this goes. The injured guys.

[Joe House]

It never ends well, obviously. An under.

[Bill Simmons]

Celtics over 42 and a half. Division 8 to 1. Conference 11. One title, 33 to 1. Playoffs minus 225. They turned Drew Holliday into Anthony Simons. They turned Porzingis into Luca Garza and Josh Minot and Chris Boucher. They lost Al Horford. They lost Luke Cornett. They turned Jason Tatum for at least four months into Hugo Gonzalez. They have a $22.5 million trade exception in their own 2026 first. They're in the first apron. $12 million over the luxury tax line. And for a while we thought this would be a tank season because they have their own pick. And then Jayson Tatum kept doing Instagram videos of how good he was looking. And now he's dunking in the practice center and trying to make history with the fastest Achilles comeback. And then now openly saying, I am coming back. I'm going to be on the team this year. And I've told the Celtics that. 42 and a half. Zach, what do you got?

[Zach Lowe]

Under.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay.

[Zach Lowe]

I just think they lost so much. Their front court is just a morass of completely unproven guys. And I understand, like, the stuff I said about serious dudes with Indiana. These are serious dudes and a serious coach that are used to winning that know what it takes to win that know how far you can get in the NBA by just playing hard and playing right every single night. I get all that. They just lost so much that, like, if Derrick White misses 15 games, it's just that they have no margin for White or Brown missing anytime this season. And you combine that with all the incentives that are pointing to, like, are they going to try to duck the tax? Is this going to be. If we get to the 40 game mark and we're not doing well, does this transition into the tank gap year that, you know, people sort of started to. I just think there's too much. They lost too much and there's too much tugging. I'm going under. I'm sorry.

[Bill Simmons]

Who you apologize to?

[Zach Lowe]

You.

[Joe House]

What do you mean?

[Bill Simmons]

I'm fine.

[Zach Lowe]

You've got Tatum coming back.

[Bill Simmons]

And on Christmas, I mean, honestly, I hope he doesn't. I hope he comes back when he's 120% ready to come back. I hope he's, like, cleared to play. And then two more months pass before.

[Joe House]

He plays house under 42 and 40 for the Boston Celtics. That is under 42 and a half.

[Zach Lowe]

It is.

[Joe House]

I honestly would have bet the over if it stayed at 41 and a half, because 42, 42 and 40. No, they're exactly a 500 team. Like the. The. The DNA that you just described is of a. Of a winning team. And the design of this team is going to be fascinating. They're going to take a minimum of 60 threes a game. Jaylen Brown said he's on a track team, not a basketball team. That's going to be fun to watch. I'm going to enjoy watching it. They're not going to get any offensive rebounds, so they better make the threes. They better be a lot of made threes. But against the east, that's a 500 team with the players they have. So I'm betting on them being a 500 team that's under.

[Zach Lowe]

Come on, come on.

[Bill Simmons]

Go over.

[Zach Lowe]

You got to go over.

[Bill Simmons]

I was. It was so much more enticing to me. At 41 and a half. Are you 42? 40 seemed reasonable.

[Joe House]

Yeah. One win.

[Bill Simmons]

43 and 39 is way less enticing. I can't lose less than 40 games.

[Joe House]

You just made the case for the under, and it's a good case.

[Bill Simmons]

So here's the thing. I think it's 50, 50. Like, I think it's straight.

[Joe House]

Totally agree.

[Bill Simmons]

It's not like our Philly argument where I'm like, I'm not sure gonna. There's two outcomes. The one is that the system they play with and all the threes they shoot with and the Missoula being an alpha, all that stuff, that it just translates better to the regular season than people think. And they know how to play with each other. There's real familiarity, real DNA. The other thing is what Zach said, where if, like, one guy goes down for four weeks with a sprained ankle, the entire team falls apart or the balance is way off. I'm going to go over anyway.

[Zach Lowe]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Joe House]

Good. That's.

[Bill Simmons]

I think they're going to be pretty good.

[Joe House]

I don't think we'll be fine.

[Bill Simmons]

All the guys that they got, all the. All the weird signings, they have all these bigs. They're all, like, energy guys who play hard. On paper, the rebounding is going to be a disaster.

[Joe House]

Disaster. Not on paper. On the basketball court.

[Bill Simmons]

I think Jalen is going to kind of secretly enjoy this whole.

[Joe House]

I Agree with you, Alpha.

[Bill Simmons]

Jalen, we still have me. I'm sorry. I thought I was still one of the best 20 players in the league. Why aren't we a playoff team? I like it and I really like the guards. I think the guards are going to be a problem in crunch time. Pritchard, Simons, White, all together with Jalen and one big. And they just go super small Indiana style. And I think teams are going to be like, what is this look?

[Zach Lowe]

I don't feel super confident about the under. Like, the guards are really good. I just think the team is super thin in proven NBA players and couldn't agree more. Thin is just bad for regular season.

[Bill Simmons]

I really like Simons on this team. I think he's the rehabilitation potential of Anthony Simons, like closes games. Like they're running plays for him in certain matchups kind of guy. I think there's games where he's just going to have like 35 points. There's didn't be running up and down there and be like, just fucking shoot.

[Zach Lowe]

Three for the Nets or for the Celtics.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, that's the question. The question with this over under is, will Simons be in the team in February?

[Zach Lowe]

There's different ways. They can cut the tax bill. They can get under it. They can flip a couple minimums here and there. There's different ways.

[Bill Simmons]

But if Tatum's playing the last 30 games. I'm sorry, what if Tatum's playing the last 30 games, hypothetically, so he comes back. Last 30 is February.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Zach Lowe]

Who plays more games this year, Jayson Tatum or Joel? Embiid. Come on, answer the question.

[Bill Simmons]

Ooh, wow. That's a great one.

[Joe House]

That's a great one. Let's get FanDuel to write a prop for that.

[Zach Lowe]

It's gotta be Embiid.

[Joe House]

Come on, Embiid.

[Bill Simmons]

What's the over under for Embiid games?

[Zach Lowe]

I don't know. I just ask who's playing more.

[Bill Simmons]

Embiid's a safer bet. Embiid would be favored in that matchup. I wouldn't bet it.

[Zach Lowe]

I can't believe you're thinking about this.

[Bill Simmons]

I just don't. I. I mean, I love, I love.

[Zach Lowe]

I love everything about the Celtics discussion. I'm still going under.

[Joe House]

Me too.

[Bill Simmons]

We didn't talk about Missoula enough, so I'm just going to mention this one other piece. I don't think that dude's built to tank. I think he's an absolute maniac. And you talk about, like what the Celtics used to have with KG way back when, where it was just like every practice, every game, just like crazy, crazy, crazy. I think he's like the, the, the KG for this team.

[Joe House]

Just, just to be clear, this isn't a tank bet. The under isn't a tank bet that the under is that Derek White misses 15 games or the gentleman.

[Bill Simmons]

It's going to be right in that low 40s.

[Zach Lowe]

The under is like, wait, how many minutes did Baylor Scheireman play last night?

[Bill Simmons]

He looks great.

[Zach Lowe]

Like he could be very good. He's just young and unproven.

[Joe House]

Unproven property available on Sheriman Island.

[Bill Simmons]

No, but Josh Minot Island. I did put a little something down. Toronto Raptors 39 and a half. They added Mamu. They had a Murray Boyles. They lost Boucher. They have one of the weirdest roster slash salary cap situations, but I think they have like a top 10 expensive roster.

[Zach Lowe]

They're over the tax.

[Bill Simmons]

They're in the first apron over the tax. I don't understand the team. And the over is like right around where I would have had it. There's actually a little action plus 104 on the over for 39 and a half. If you want to do that. Zach's always, always complimentary of the Raptors. You're kind of in the bag for them a little bit.

[Zach Lowe]

It's a great line. 39 and a half. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

What do you have?

[Zach Lowe]

Over. Over by default. The two sweetest words in the English language. Default. I just think they have too much talent. I understand all the questions about how weird the fit is. The bench is unproven. Are any of these shooting guards going to pop? Does Murray Boyles give us anything? Blah, blah, blah. They just missed so many games due to injury last year and I just, I just think there's, I, I, I can get to 42 wins with this roster if quickly can give me 65, 70 if ever. All the core guys give me a some sort of minimum threshold of games. I can get to 42 wins of these. And the organization top down has to win. They're like, this is a front office that is a holdover front office. New controlling owner under super amounts of pressure to see, yeah, this model works. This team we built works. I'm going over.

[Bill Simmons]

So for them to hit this house, they were 30 and 52 last year. They have to be 10 wins better.

[Zach Lowe]

I mean, they weren't even trying for two months.

[Joe House]

They actively took wins off the table in that, in that stretch. They were ahead of teams considerably in the second half and just walked themselves back to losses. It Was appalling. If you were a Toronto fan rooting for wins, fine. If you were betting on second half, you know, the other teams to beat them in the second half. This is a lock over for me. This is a lock for all the reasons Zach just mentioned. Plus, I mean, look, they, they met five of their top six players last year, missed a combined 143 games like they, they had, you know, bottom three injury luck in the league. I like the coach. I think the coach is, is, is a, is a real dude. I, you know, I, this, you, I said this to you and you laughed. I think they have in their own heads the idea of being a poor man's Oklahoma City, which is to get out in transition, to force turnovers, you know, to, to, to take, force teams to miss threes and get moving and they have the guys that can convert. Now this, this is why I asked Zach about the plant situation in Toronto. They have extended Brandon Ingram. They didn't just sign that homeboy and say, please show up and give us a good year. They said to that man, we want you here. And this is a lot of investment in Mr. Ingram. I'm willing to make it. But look, he has to show us this year that he wants to play competitive basketball because it's a team that's built for a decent showing in a weakened East.

[Bill Simmons]

So I was leaning under for a while with them and my issue was that they spent all this money and capital to basically lock down a 43 win ceiling roster, which I just didn't fundamentally understand. I don't want to be in the area they are with this. Really no chance to improve it. It's expensive and you don't really have a chance to maybe do anything. But with that mindset, 39 and a half, they should be over that because they've spent all this money to lock in a 43 and 39 team. So maybe that's what they're going to be. I don't see a scenario where this team's terrible, especially in the East. They'll score points. I don't know if they'll make sense as we're watching them. Right. And there's a Scotty Barnes. Is there something else there? I don't personally think there is. Some people like him more than I think I do.

[Joe House]

His shooting really regressed last year across the board.

[Zach Lowe]

He was dealing with some pretty bad ankles, playing through some pretty bad ankle stuff for a lot of last year. I'm, I'm betting on a Scotty Barnes bounce back.

[Bill Simmons]

Ingram Piece. So. And if you're, if you're going the other way, like Ingram was available for a year and nobody wanted him. That was weird. Right? He left that, left that Team USA thing. Basically bagged out near the end. Had had an injury or whatever but he wasn't going to play. And so you're building around him and Barnes. Two guys that I don't know if I trust for to lead anything. I do like some of their younger guys a little bit as, as at least rotation guys but I think they're right somewhere between 40 and 43.

[Zach Lowe]

You're going over. We're all going over on the rappers.

[Bill Simmons]

I didn't want to, but I think there's no other.

[Zach Lowe]

Yeah, you sound like you're.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't feel great about it.

[Joe House]

I locked it.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I don't feel great about it. Brooklyn nets over under 19 and a half. I'm going under. I'll just tell you guys now. They're going to be awful, this team.

[Joe House]

Wow.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, wow.

[Zach Lowe]

We can, we can keep it quick if you want. I'm also going under.

[Joe House]

We're all going under. The only thing to talk about is how good that coach is and I'm super impressed. He's going. He's another one like Will Hardy to me that like he, he deserves the shot once they get the talent to stay and you know, coach some, some, some legit.

[Zach Lowe]

Yeah. But the front office jordy proofed the roster this year. I mean like they did. The only argument for the over is three of their starters are Cam Thomas, Michael Porter Jr. And Nick Claxton. That's like those are.

[Bill Simmons]

Hold on, let me tell my grandkids.

[Zach Lowe]

I said, I said the only argument for an over on a line of 19 and a half wins. You don't have to tell your grandkids about it. Those are like representative NBA starter level players now and camp. And one of them, Cam Thomas can handle the ball and run some of the offense. I just think a. They're all going to be trade candidates and baby, if you hand an NBA team to rookie guards and they have a thousand of them, the results are generally like disastrous.

[Bill Simmons]

I said this in June. The draft picks they made are all guys who need the ball. Even that Danny Wolf, he needs the ball. They drafted all these dudes who need the ball and then they're going to all throw them out in the court together. I really liked the draft last year. I didn't like their draft.

[Zach Lowe]

The. The offense is going to be a mess and I.

[Bill Simmons]

This team's Going to be awful. This is a.

[Zach Lowe]

All right.

[Bill Simmons]

We all went under trying to give your tickets away.

[Joe House]

It's a bummer that it ticked down from 20 and a half to 19.

[Bill Simmons]

And a half with any net plan. OKC.

[Zach Lowe]

It's a mean question. I think Nick Clackson.

[Joe House]

I agree.

[Zach Lowe]

Clack Clackson get minutes.

[Bill Simmons]

Who's he playing over? Jalen Williams.

[Joe House]

No, he's going to get all the homegrown missed game.

[Zach Lowe]

Yeah, there's missed game minutes there to.

[Bill Simmons]

Be had with any net play in the Nuggets.

[Zach Lowe]

Michael Porter Jr. Knows the system.

[Joe House]

Back up.

[Bill Simmons]

When does Brooklyn flip the tank switch?

[Zach Lowe]

It's flipped.

[Joe House]

They already have, right? No, but I'm trying to start on October 22nd.

[Bill Simmons]

They'll let Jordy try to win games for a month and I don't settle down.

[Zach Lowe]

They are praying someone gets desperate enough to take the Michael Burry Jr. Contract off their hands. I'm sure.

[Bill Simmons]

Can I give you, before we go to a break, the Brooklyn Nets. 15 years in Brooklyn recap.

[Zach Lowe]

It's a really. It's a winding deal.

[Bill Simmons]

Seven coaches and two playoff series wins. They went for it, tanked. Went for it, tanked. They peaked for three weeks in 2021 with Zach's most theoretical great team of all time.

[Zach Lowe]

Greatest theoretical team of all time.

[Bill Simmons]

They built the Tatum Brown dynasty in Boston. They have some future picks, and they're the third most popular professional basketball team in New York.

[Zach Lowe]

You just. You left out so much stuff.

[Bill Simmons]

I've just given you the highlights. What else did you want to put in there?

[Zach Lowe]

Well, like, we don't. There's. There's a lot. There's a plague. There's a. There's a plague on the world that affected their team more than other people. There's a mascot that they created and then murdered because everybody hated it so much. The Brooklyn Knight rip.

[Bill Simmons]

There's good pizza.

[Zach Lowe]

It's been a wild, wild. I was thinking in my head, like, how many of the seven coaches could we. Could we name and 30 seconds.

[Bill Simmons]

Let's see if this is a good one for House because he's a little groggy now because he was in a coffee in five hours.

[Joe House]

True.

[Bill Simmons]

How many Nets coaches can you name from the 15 years?

[Joe House]

Four maybe.

[Bill Simmons]

Would you start naming them?

[Joe House]

Let's hear Steve Nash. Jordy Fernandez. Oh, from. From the. Jack Vaughn. He coached.

[Bill Simmons]

One of them's easy from the last five years. He's now coaching another NBA team.

[Joe House]

I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm Kenny Atkinson.

[Joe House]

Oh, yeah, of course. Yeah. Kenny's good.

[Zach Lowe]

Avery Johnson.

[Joe House]

Lionel Hollins would not have gotten either.

[Bill Simmons]

Jason Kidd.

[Zach Lowe]

Is that it?

[Bill Simmons]

I think that's it.

[Zach Lowe]

Wow. Good job by us. So it's crazy. There's a guy. There's isn't Tony Brown. Isn't there like an interim Tony?

[Bill Simmons]

There's some interims, yeah, there's. I don't count the interims. They have a still there.

[Zach Lowe]

We've talked about them too long.

[Joe House]

John Mark's still there.

[Bill Simmons]

They can swap their first in Houston 2027, but it's Houston's choice.

[Zach Lowe]

Not good for them. Houston can swap.

[Bill Simmons]

Not good for them. Anyway, we'll take one more break. We'll do the Southeast, the most fun of all the divisions. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn ads. The best B2B marketing gets wasted on the wrong people. So when you want to reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn ads. LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals, including 130 million decision makers. And that's where it stands apart from the other ad buys. You could target your buyers by job title, industry, company role, seniority, skills, company revenue. So you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience. That's why LinkedIn Ads generates the highest B2B return and ad spend on all online ad networks. Seriously, all of them. Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one. Just go to LinkedIn.com SimmonsBill Terms and Conditions apply. As you can tell from this over unders pod, I love betting NBA futures. One of my favorite things gives you a little stake not just in your team but you can pick five, six, seven other teams. Just kind of monitor their progress over the six month season. I like doing finals winners. I like doing pairings for the finals. I'm not allowed to bet on any of the awards because I have a vote, but the playoff stuff is really fun. Playing is kind of a fun one season leaders. You can bet on stuff like Will Wemby have a quadruple double this year? You can bet on that on FanDuel. You can parlay stuff together. I love betting on Steph Curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games. Anyway, we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the Overrunner podcast and then on Thursday night's podcast we are going to be announcing our big super boost for the upcoming season. That will be Friday 1014 on FanDuel. Be ready. Southeast Orlando Magic over 50 and a half minus 185 for the division, 6 to 1 for the conference, plus 450 for the 1 seed. They lost Cole, Anthony, KCP, and finally, thankfully, Gary Harris. They added Desmond Bain, they added Tyus Jones, they added Jace Richardson, who a lot of. A lot of the stuff draft nerds really like and think might actually play for them. Mo Wagner is going to come back at some point.

[Zach Lowe]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Pretty deep team. Desmond Baines, the big AD. So they won 34 in 20, 23, 47 and 24 last year, regressed to 21. And the thinking, the common thinking with this team, with the over under being 50 and a half, is that this will be a top three team in the East. Do you agree, Zach Lowe?

[Zach Lowe]

This is a huge number. When I first saw this number at fifty and a half with starting with a five, I was like, whoa, that's. I was prepared to like, hammer the overall on the Orlando Magic because I thought it was gonna be like 47 and a half. 46 and a half. 50 and a half for a team that hasn't been a top 20 offense in a gazillion years, team that can't shoot straight. And yeah, they got Desmond Bain, blah, blah, blah. And you know what? I'm hammering you over, over, over, over. Give me all the action. I just think this team's defense is a legit top three to five defense. Every night they play super hard. Paolo Leap. Franz Leap. Suggs can't be any less healthy than he was last year. Bain, huge addition. Tyus Jones, Hughes addition, young guys. I like De Silva, even like Anthony Black. Mini Leap. I'm just. I just think this team's going to be a regular season Wins machine. Over 50 and a half for a team that hasn't won this many games in a long time, they could do that.

[Joe House]

They did start last year. 17 and 9, 47 wins two years ago. Yeah, I just don't think they're gonna. I mean, we're already in Jalen Suggs. What's the timeline for? You know, for. For him. And.

[Zach Lowe]

And I don't think he's far away from what I've heard. He's not far away. He's not far away.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, Jalen Suggs, timeline, injury. Go keep talking us. I'm just looking this up.

[Joe House]

The real thing to me is, ooh, I still.

[Bill Simmons]

Left knee, trochlea, cartilage tear.

[Joe House]

Yeah, well, we knew about that.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm just.

[Joe House]

Yeah, you're getting the timeline expected.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe sort of removed the secret sauce.

[Joe House]

And I was kind of a prick about it last year. I just need Franz Wagner to be a consistent scorer in this basketball league.

[Zach Lowe]

You don't want him to shoot like.

[Joe House]

I need him to. To. To. Like he had one season of good three point shooting.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm all in on Franz.

[Joe House]

You have to be. That's the only way to get to the. Over here.

[Bill Simmons]

Zach's all in on France.

[Zach Lowe]

He's a. You know what?

[Bill Simmons]

He is all in.

[Zach Lowe]

All right. The hitch is what it is. It's. It appears, it disappears, it reappears. Hitch. First of all, unlike most guys with jump shooting, whatever he had, he keeps shooting at least. And he's a just a basketball player.

[Bill Simmons]

He knows how to play both basketball.

[Zach Lowe]

I want you to go under. Go under? Come on.

[Bill Simmons]

I. I already wrote it down. I'm under.

[Joe House]

Yeah, we're both under.

[Zach Lowe]

Orlando Magic fans, just remember who had your back at 50 and a freakin half. Me.

[Joe House]

It's a grote. That's a high number.

[Zach Lowe]

It's a high number. You know what? It's.

[Bill Simmons]

I just think 51 and 31 is a really good record for a team that is pretty young. That's adding a big bane piece that does know when Suggs is coming back. That has this Franz. I never know what I'm getting from him month to month.

[Joe House]

Let me see.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't.

[Joe House]

Go ahead.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't 100% love the coach.

[Joe House]

Oh, there we go. That's the part of it. And make your.

[Bill Simmons]

You know what else I don't like? Zach Lowe.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Zach Lowe]

What don't you like?

[Bill Simmons]

Lots of expectations. For a team that hasn't done jack shit. It's a good over under recipe for. You know, we fell for it last year with them and they had the year from hell. But I just think like if this team goes 49 and 33, that's a great season for them.

[Joe House]

So is 50 and 32.

[Bill Simmons]

50 and 32.

[Joe House]

Another great season.

[Bill Simmons]

48, 34. Congrats.

[Zach Lowe]

Over.

[Joe House]

It's an under.

[Zach Lowe]

It's an over for me.

[Joe House]

And we gotta see one time. People were begging for it last year. Let's see a little offensive ingenuity, a little innovation out of Orlando. It can't just. We can't just continue to tolerate the missed shots. You asked earlier what happened to kcp. What's the answer?

[Zach Lowe]

I don't know.

[Joe House]

Right.

[Zach Lowe]

I don't know.

[Joe House]

But none of us have an explanation.

[Zach Lowe]

The bench wings make me a little bit nervous. Like I'm counting on Da Silva to give me something. I might be counting on Jace Richardson to give me something. I'm Definitely counting on Anthony Black to give me more. That makes me a little nerv. Jonathan Isaac, I'm. I don't know how to pencil him in.

[Bill Simmons]

There's a lot of guys like, what am I going to this guy? What am I getting from this guy?

[Zach Lowe]

I think Bane is a transformational stylistic player for him. I think he. He will unlock a lot of different things they can do. Offensively. I don't think he's like a top 30 player in the NBA, but he's not far from that. But I think for them he's a game changer. I respect the culture. I respect the effort. I'm going over. You cannot talk me out of it. I like being on an over island. Over island is the most fun place to be on this podcast they have.

[Bill Simmons]

I did my top hundred exercise for the ringer and they had five guys in the list. Atlanta 47 and a half. Another team with a ton of expectations. So I chose to go slightly under with Orlando and slightly over with Atlanta.

[Joe House]

Because it's a combo deal.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I felt like you had to choose and you couldn't go over for both. I love they're 40, 42 last year and I just like everything they did. Alexander Walker, Porzingis, Kennard, Jalen Johnson back missed what he missed the last 2/3 of the season. I think he has a chance to be an all star. Congu. They finally gave him the car keys. Got rid of Capella and and Trey Young contract here. But I just like the team. I think. I think this is a really fun regular season. Get some wins, high 40s range. So the over under. I wish it was one lower. I wish it was 46 and a half. But I still have to go over. What do you have House.

[Joe House]

I'm in the same boat because I thought about it the same way. Which is to say if I'm going to go under on Orlando, then I'm going to go over on Atlanta. And this number stayed right at that 47 and a half. There was 46 early and I think in the summer it was like 45. There some great numbers.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh man. Remember the draft. I mean they were like 60 to 1 when the. There was some like great future bets with them that now.

[Joe House]

And now. Now it's at the right number. It's settled at exactly 47 and a half, which I think is a super fair number. This is what you're gambling on. If you take the over. You're gambling on the infectious enthusiasm of Alexander Walker and Dyson together to. To create a Defensive with Jaylen Johnson. Yes. So there's your defense.

[Zach Lowe]

You.

[Joe House]

You. Because this team didn't play no defense. This is a no defense situation out on the perimeter. They gave up threes to everybody and their sister last year. This team better come out and play some defense on the goddamn perimeter. This is also a bet on Quinn Snyder. And you know, we've made this bet before. We lost on Atlanta that we win or lose last year.

[Bill Simmons]

We won in Atlanta last year.

[Joe House]

Okay. All right.

[Bill Simmons]

One other thing on this before we get to Zach, who's ridded his egg.

[Joe House]

He is. He's going to murder us.

[Bill Simmons]

It's a stealth move team. They have really good picks. They have that Pelicans 26, first on their own. They have a $13 million trade exception. Maybe Risha Shay could be on the right table and the right thing. Maybe Jalen Johnson. If you want to start talking, have a really honest conversation.

[Zach Lowe]

I was going to say they're the stealthy, honest team because they own the rights to Milwaukee's picks to a couple of them.

[Bill Simmons]

So it's an over for me and House. What do you have?

[Zach Lowe]

You know, I don't have to choose between Orlando and Atlanta. I went under on Indiana. I went under on Boston. I went under on Detroit. I'm going emphatically over on the Atlanta Hawks. There's no zag.

[Joe House]

Yeah, okay.

[Zach Lowe]

If there's a zag, it's that I don't have any of this off. It was 46 and a half.

[Joe House]

I'd feel a lot better.

[Zach Lowe]

That's chicken shit stuff. I'm going over. No thought. The Hawks are going over 47 and a half and the magic are going over. 50 and a half over.

[Bill Simmons]

They have some of my favorite players. I've always wanted Luke Kennard to be on one good team. I always felt like on the right situation, he could be a really good reference guy. Memphis, he had a Memphis moment. It's never been like, just like for a year. I always wanted to go to Denver. I thought he would have been an awesome Nuggets bench guy. Obviously Porzingis, I got to watch that. And so did House firsthand. When he plays, he's genuinely impactful. So even if you pencil him in for 50 games, the team's going to be fucking awesome. In the 50 games they're going to be able to go. Porzingis with the three perimeter guys and Trey at crunch time, and I think they're going to be really hard to guard. We used to say should be better. This year he was up and Down.

[Joe House]

It's a good. It's a good situation for him.

[Bill Simmons]

23, 22 and 20.

[Zach Lowe]

The case for the under is every time we're all ready to trust the Hawks as an NBA collective, they kick us in the nuts.

[Joe House]

You are right.

[Zach Lowe]

Shooting is a little shaky. Their bench after Canard, Alexander, Walker and Akongu. So now we're into eight guys. The bench after that makes me very nervous.

[Bill Simmons]

They're going to need Newell to play.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

They're going to need to make a trade, which they have the pieces. They have the exceptions. Things to do.

[Zach Lowe]

You cannot and I cannot temper my enthusiasm.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm going over so over under Atlanta All Stars. I'm going to give you the definites. Giannis, Cade, Paolo, Brunson, Mitchell and Mobley. I think those are the six definite All Stars.

[Zach Lowe]

And Brown didn't make the list.

[Bill Simmons]

Probables. Jaylen Brown, Bam. And Towns. I think we can comfortably say those are nine All Stars. Barring an injury, there's three spots left. Could the Hawks have two All Stars? So that would have to be Trey and then I think Jalen Johnson.

[Joe House]

Oh, okay. Not Dyson Davis.

[Zach Lowe]

I would bet against it because we still have to account for all the Sixers guys. Whoever among them survives.

[Bill Simmons]

I forgot about the walking dead.

[Zach Lowe]

Did you say Bankero? You said Bankero, right?

[Bill Simmons]

I said Pangoro. Yeah. So there could be a Bane in there. You know what?

[Zach Lowe]

You know what?

[Bill Simmons]

It's very possible they could have two. I thought Jalen Johnson. I thought that was the most underrated injury last year. Scotty Barnes, maybe if we believe in Toronto. But I thought that was the most underrated injury last year because he was really becoming a guy, like a capital G guy. And then he was gone. And then nobody talked about him again.

[Zach Lowe]

If Embiid plays half the games and has a great. And has good numbers, the coaches will pick him because he'll just. He's got that kind of stature.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Zach Lowe]

And then Maxi is still there.

[Bill Simmons]

If you could pick.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm going to bet against two. Two Hawks All Stars.

[Bill Simmons]

If you could pick any east team to have three All Stars, which one would you pick?

[Zach Lowe]

Has to be Cleveland, right?

[Bill Simmons]

Well, yeah, See, I'd say still.

[Zach Lowe]

Still Cleveland. Mitchell, Garland, Mobley. Feels like the most likely trio.

[Bill Simmons]

Orlando.

[Joe House]

Not for me, Dog.

[Bill Simmons]

Atlanta. Hat Atlanta with the two picks and the trade exception. To me, there's a bench guy they don't have yet that they're going to have and it'll be like worst case scenario, George Nang, who maybe they can't even trade for him because they already had him. But somebody of that ilk, somebody who's like a very impactful eighth man. Miami Heat, 38 and a half. They added Norm Powell and Fontechio and Achua and Yakushunas. My favorite post lottery rookie.

[Zach Lowe]

Wow. I didn't know he had that status.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, yeah. I was so mad when they got him. It was classic Miami.

[Zach Lowe]

He could draft anybody and you'd be mad.

[Bill Simmons]

No, that one made me mad because it was like he just. He just fell five spots lower than he should have. It was stupid and I was vindicated. The GM survey, everyone said that was like the steel pick. They lost Robinson, they lost Highsmith, who they gave away. Remember I said that? They lost Kyle Anderson. They have their own 20, 26, first most important, Tyler Hero. Ankle surgery. He's out. They're saying, like, maybe end of December. To me that means like all star break. They always lie about that shit. Could be 35, 40 missed games. Does that make Miami a stealth tank candidate for you, Zach Love?

[Zach Lowe]

This is my blind faith pick.

[Bill Simmons]

HE culture. You and Adonis Haslam, the only two.

[Zach Lowe]

Left in he culture Allen, because the tank scenario is there. The hero injury timetable is unclear. I don't think it's going to be as bad as you said, but I don't know. I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

I just always add three to four weeks.

[Zach Lowe]

37 and 45 last year.

[Bill Simmons]

Yep.

[Zach Lowe]

And their best perimeter ball handler is injured. Yes. They introduced another one in Norm Powell. Not a playmaker like hero. The playmaking quotient's getting pretty, pretty low, by the way.

[Bill Simmons]

Norm Powell is more like a heat.

[Zach Lowe]

Check finisher, straight line finisher, shoot some.

[Bill Simmons]

Threes, just like, gets hot for five minutes. He's not like, let's run a week of plays for Norm Powell.

[Zach Lowe]

That was the idea with Terry Rozier. I don't know what in the hell is going on there. What can possibly be expected out of him. But this is my blind faith pick. I'm allowing myself the leeway of, like, I just trust the infrastructure. I think some of the young players, like, people are already out on Hawkes. I think Hawkes bounces back. I like Jovic. I like where see what Yakachunas gives.

[Bill Simmons]

Jovic is just a blind. Anybody with an itch, you're in.

[Zach Lowe]

I like Jovic.

[Bill Simmons]

I think he's itching.

[Zach Lowe]

He stays healthy. He's. He's an itch, but he's also going to be good.

[Bill Simmons]

There's literally no evidence of that.

[Zach Lowe]

But he shot. He shot. You know what we're not going to argue about Nicola Jovic on this podcast. I'm going over on the Heat. It's my blind faith pick hardest, working hardest, playing toughest. Whatever you want to write on the court, they get points. They're bringing back the Miami Vice jerseys. That's like five wins. I'm over.

[Bill Simmons]

I was excited for that.

[Zach Lowe]

It's not. I bet you guys are both going to go under.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh wow. 100% going under.

[Zach Lowe]

Under is the smart pick.

[Joe House]

I'm just going over.

[Bill Simmons]

I have a hard under.

[Joe House]

I am over.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh my God.

[Joe House]

I am over. The reason is don't know how you're locking it in.

[Zach Lowe]

You might lock it in.

[Bill Simmons]

Not locking in because lock in against Heat culture.

[Joe House]

This team in each of 17 Spolster's 17 seasons has topped 36 wins every season. So we're looking. They went, they won 37 games last year in what should was the most disastrous. Jamie Butler tried to sabotage the basketball team. He effectively sabotaged the basketball team.

[Zach Lowe]

He did it.

[Joe House]

He fucked them up so bad and they won 37 games and they were.

[Zach Lowe]

The worst crunch time team like imaginable. They were so bad in crunch time.

[Joe House]

Do you recall how many times I went on the Ringer gambling show and told people to live bet the Miami Heat in the fourth quarter Live bet whoever's playing them. It doesn't matter how much they're up by. They gave up double digit leads in the fourth quarter quarter at an unprecedented rate last year and it was because they didn't have an offensive solution. Tyler Herro just took the ball the last four and a half minutes of every single game and they lost a bunch of those and we made a bunch of money out there.

[Bill Simmons]

This is the question for me. Let's say Tyler Hero was starting this season and playing healthy 100%.

[Joe House]

He's good.

[Bill Simmons]

He's playing 82 games. What would you think their record would be?

[Zach Lowe]

Well, the line was not much different than this before his injury, right?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it was like below 40, I think.

[Zach Lowe]

I think they're 45 win team. I think they're closer to like the Pistons, Bucks, tier of the east than they are to where they are. Yeah, I think they're.

[Bill Simmons]

I have them in the Pacers, Celtics cluster of. There's DNA here but I'm not sure I trust what's going on. But not having Hero for. He was everything they did at crunch time. What are they going to do at crunch time now? They're going to run places.

[Zach Lowe]

Last year was lose.

[Joe House]

Yeah. Win games.

[Zach Lowe]

Can't get any worse, just lose worse.

[Bill Simmons]

But here's the thing. If you start out the first two months and they start out 10 and 16 or 10 and 17, that still worries me.

[Zach Lowe]

The pick and center.

[Bill Simmons]

At that point, you're like, fuck it.

[Joe House]

Yeah, that's right.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, you want Andrew Wiggins. You're willing to give us a.

[Joe House]

Have we said enough about Khalil Ware yet?

[Zach Lowe]

Look, there's a reason I called this my blind faith pick. I'm just. I'm just giving Miami the over. I'm just doing it out of respect.

[Bill Simmons]

Moving on to Charlotte. I'm going under, over, over, under. Charlotte Hornets 26 and a half is the over under. They lost Yusuf Nurkic. You're leading with Nurkurk Williams, Seth Curry and a Koji. They added Colin Sexton, Dean Witty, one of the plumleys, Connaughton, Knipple, McNeely and Colt Brenner. He was getting a lot of buzz. A lot of Kalkbrenner buzz. Like a lot.

[Joe House]

He better.

[Bill Simmons]

A lot of buzz.

[Joe House]

He'd be playing a lot of minutes.

[Bill Simmons]

A lot of buzz. He's starting for them.

[Joe House]

He better.

[Bill Simmons]

They're just. They just have way more talent than they did last year. When you include the part that Brandon Miller is actually going to play basketball and be healthy, that Lamello ball is going to try to be healthy and is at a fork in the road, what the hell are you Season.

[Zach Lowe]

Knipple is worth minimum 10 to 12 wins for you. Who Knipple? We're at the point where your lawyers told you it's now okay to start talking about.

[Bill Simmons]

I just think he's going to be immediately impactful. Just glue guy. He's going to rebound this team. Even though they have a center. I think they're going to rebound. They have guys who are. Fill the box score guys. Bridges had a pretty good year statistically last year, but I think we have to set a deadline before we do our picks. We have to set a deadline for can we find out if Lamelo is a superstar or not? What year is that going to be? It could be this year. It could be next year. You could go two years from now. Just let's set a deadline for it because I don't want to talk about it anymore.

[Zach Lowe]

A superstar.

[Bill Simmons]

Superstar.

[Zach Lowe]

I mean, I'd give that another couple years. I'd settle this year for like all stars. Okay, agree.

[Bill Simmons]

Two more years.

[Joe House]

Agree. Two. Two more years.

[Zach Lowe]

Yeah.

[Joe House]

Can't have a rector.

[Bill Simmons]

He's one of the most popular players in the league. Yeah, but popular but the league needs him to be good. Like they need good stuff to happen with them in this team. I like the coach.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I think the front office and the ownership, everything they've done are things I would do if I ran a team and I was trying to rebuild and just be like, all right, I'll take that asset. I'll grab that. Grant Williams might be back at some point.

[Joe House]

Congrats.

[Bill Simmons]

I can't defend the saloon pick whatever his name is because we didn't see him.

[Zach Lowe]

John Salon. Salon doesn't look great as of today, guys.

[Bill Simmons]

It's an over for me. I think they're going to be a competitive bad team. I think they're like in the high 20s that they'll win some games and kind of hang around. And I don't think the east is good.

[Zach Lowe]

I am also an over. I, I think my okay. There are two reasons I don't feel great about it. Number one, I, I Does ownership actually want to win games this year or do they want one more bite at the apple? Particularly since the what they get out of Salon is going to be a question mark. Like that might have been one bite and it may not yield fruit. We'll see. Number two, I just don't know how the hell Charles Lee is going to make this defense anything better than abysmal like Miles Bridges plus whatever non entities they have at center. Defense is just drawing dead from the beginning. But I think offensively they could be all right. And just like I think Lamelo is a good offensive player, the numbers suggest their offense was okay with him last year. Miller was a zero last year because of health. He's going to play. And this could be with the lack of teams in the west that are outright tanking other than Utah and combined with the fact that we have now seen a decent amount of years with these new lottery odds where losing at a high level does not reward you the way that it used to.

[Joe House]

Huge point.

[Zach Lowe]

I think this team could win 28 games and still be like the fifth or sixth worst record in the NBA and be absolutely fine with that. I am hammering the over. I might lie my lock. The Charlotte Hornets over.

[Joe House]

Amazing.

[Zach Lowe]

Which is insane.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Every year I was looking it up for the last few years because I thought this was one of the most interesting ones. We have like five or six teams that are like 26 wins and under. Right. So the worst six are usually 25 wins or below. And the question with this bet would be, are they going to be one of the worst six teams? And when you think they're in the East. There's easy wins to be had and there's players they have that are like Brandon Miller wants to prove that he's a good player. He's got an extension stuff coming up. Lamelo wants to prove that you can build a franchise around him and then Knipple wants to prove he's a good player right away and Charles Lee wants to prove he's a decent. There's a lot of proving stuff with this team. I think they'd be fun to watch. I think. You know I always look at these 4 o' clock on the west coast here and it's always Charlotte and Miami and Washington and Toronto. I mean we just said before the six worst teams of the last 10 years were all in the East. Those teams are always on at 4 o'. Clock. Charlotte's probably the one I would gravitate to of all those teams because I think they're going to be fun to watch. I think they're going to play with the style. So we're all over.

[Joe House]

Yeah, we're all over because we're asking for eight more wins. And I think the Brandon Miller thing is most compelling to me. Like he. I think he can play. I think he can be a two way guy too. And the contract incentive, it's that comp. That plus Charles Lee. So there's just a lot of.

[Zach Lowe]

There's a lot of east teams, a lot of teams periods like a lot of these like teams that we're talking about where the over under is around 40. Like you're going into Charlotte on a back to back. That's like a pain in the ass game to play like man they're going to run like dunk all over the world.

[Bill Simmons]

It's always a dangerous Celtic game these last few years.

[Joe House]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

Last one. Hey, here we go. The Washington wizards. We did 20 and a half. They're 28 to 1 to make the playoffs. House, if you want to put some down on that.

[Joe House]

No, thank you.

[Bill Simmons]

They lost Brogdon, Pool, Smart Bay and homes. They added McCollum and Whitmore and they drafted Trey Johnson and got Will Riley as well. They have a top eight protected first. That goes to the Knicks.

[Zach Lowe]

I don't think the Knicks should expect that one.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't think they're going to be getting that one. So one House, one more worst four teams in the league season and then you're.

[Joe House]

That's what it feels like.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Joe House]

And they need to win 21 games to hit their over this season which is three games more than last season. Just a tiny over for me. I like the over for I'm going to be less half full.

[Zach Lowe]

Come on be more I want to hear the enthusiasm. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Give us your top five things you're looking forward to.

[Joe House]

I keep watching this team. They are a bottom three offensive team and a bottom three defensive team. I just like where's the Trey Johnson is already doing the thing that you want which is he's the first in the gym. He's the last out. They have to tell him to go home. All of that kind. That's infectious and that's what you want with a young scorer. He for sure rookie of the year odds like you know the Cooper flag injury ads well because you he and he's going to play as many minutes as his body can tolerate. He's going to put up as many shots as the team is willing to tolerate. There is no question that he is going to have the combination of volume, shooting and opportunity that that's 2/3 of.

[Bill Simmons]

The third best odds 10 to 1.

[Joe House]

Yeah. So that's a play for me for sure. Trey Johnson rookie of the year is a hard play and a tiny bit over because team tiny bit of progress hempy why not? Why not tiny over for me for.

[Zach Lowe]

What'S Dylan Harper.

[Bill Simmons]

I think he's 13:1 pretty good odds. What do you got Zach?

[Zach Lowe]

I'm going under on the Wizards.

[Joe House]

Fine.

[Zach Lowe]

I just part of this assumes that McCollum and Middleton are going to be traded and or rested enough to not impact the offense.

[Joe House]

Fair.

[Zach Lowe]

And I just think other than that you are handing the basketball to a lot of inexperienced guys who are going to be facing adult experience defenses and tends to go badly. I am as I said on Zach Low show earlier this week I'm excited about a lot of young players on this team. I just think in this particular season I'm actually kind of surprised the line jumped from 19 and a half to 20 and a half. I'm not sure why it did so I'm going under on all three of Brooklyn, Utah and Washington which seems based on gambling history very a very stupid thing to do.

[Bill Simmons]

No. I'm also making this one of my locks.

[Joe House]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Which I did last year.

[Joe House]

It's fine.

[Bill Simmons]

I just don't think Washington wants to be good and by the way I like the ass. They did a great job of asset collection. You talk about asset collection. I think Charlotte's done a good job Washington but this roster makes no sense if you actually put all these dudes together on a basketball court. It's a bunch of wings and nobody on the roster is a glue guy even like McCollum. Their only glue guy is Middleton and Middleton's, you know, at the tail end of his rear. Koulibaly, who's a terrible offensive player. I mean, he's really bad. Yeah, I didn't like. I know he's exciting and he'll have a play every once in a while, but he's a bad offensive player.

[Zach Lowe]

Marvin Begley iii.

[Bill Simmons]

I would argue he's got. Yeah. Marvin Bagley third. I. I would argue cool about. Who's that guy? Poku on okc. That was a great tanking.

[Joe House]

Don't.

[Zach Lowe]

Don't pretend like you forgot about Poku. Who was that guy? Poku.

[Bill Simmons]

Poku. So many okc.

[Zach Lowe]

Alexander Pokashevsky.

[Bill Simmons]

Remember, Poku started playing a lot. Now I wonder with Koulibaly. It'll be a lot of clear outs in March and April. Don't do that, Koulibaly. Call your number. I do like the assets, though, and I think there's going to be some fun. I've always wanted to see Cam Whitmore on the right team.

[Joe House]

Me too.

[Zach Lowe]

No, you haven't. You've never wanted you. You've always.

[Bill Simmons]

I've, like came Whitmore the entire time he was in the Rockets. He never played.

[Zach Lowe]

He's going to shoot a lot of shots.

[Joe House]

Fine with that.

[Bill Simmons]

I think if your name's Cam, you just come out firing. That's what we've learned from us. So the McCollum trade will happen pretty soon and then Middleton.

[Zach Lowe]

That's a big salary to trade, man. That's like. What worries me a little bit about going under is that these guys just might lay around Middleton for a while.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Okay.

[Zach Lowe]

And be like helpful in ways that I don't want them to be helpful if I'm betting an under.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, let's go through the picks. Cavaliers 56 and a half. We all went over. I'm going to lock that one at 56 and a half.

[Zach Lowe]

Do my locks from the west carry over to my total lock? Total?

[Bill Simmons]

No, you can do however many locks you want.

[Zach Lowe]

Okay.

[Joe House]

What do you mean, do they carry over?

[Zach Lowe]

Well, I was told I need a minimum of six locks. I don't know if that's per compressor. No, no, no.

[Joe House]

Total, total, total. It carries over.

[Zach Lowe]

I've got like five already.

[Joe House]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

The trey pistons 56 and a half.

[Zach Lowe]

46 and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

46 and and a half under for all three of us.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Zach Lowe]

Disappointing.

[Bill Simmons]

Milwaukee bucks 42 and a half over we already locked it down. Three lock, triple lock. Indiana pacers 36 and a half. Over for me and House under for Zach. I really thought hard about locking that, but decided not to. Chicago Bulls, 32 and a half. We all went over on that. Knicks 52 and a half. Over, over, over. House lock, over lock. The Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, 42 and a half. Under, under. And I'm going to lock my under just for fun.

[Zach Lowe]

Dangerous.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Is it dangerous though? Is it? Zachary?

[Zach Lowe]

I wouldn't lock anything.

[Bill Simmons]

Is it dangerous?

[Zach Lowe]

They could put the over under a 25 and a half and I wouldn't lock it.

[Bill Simmons]

You know what? I'm going to unlock it. I've unlocked it. No lock, lock. Waved Sacks, right? Just stay away from this team.

[Joe House]

Stay away, stay away.

[Bill Simmons]

42 and a half. I went over, you guys went under. That was one of our big disagreements. Toronto Raptors, 3 overs including a lock.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm going to lock the Raptors. I'm locking them.

[Joe House]

Look at this. Love to see it. Me and Zach.

[Zach Lowe]

You know what? Once I lock, the lock is locked.

[Joe House]

The lock is locked. You're not going to unlock it.

[Bill Simmons]

Nets under 19 and a half. Are we all under?

[Joe House]

Yes.

[Zach Lowe]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, not only am I under, this is a hardcore lock with some Feeny's pizzas thrown in. No Feeny lock for me at under 19 and a half. I don't see any scenario where this team wins 20 games. I honestly can't.

[Zach Lowe]

You won 26 games last year.

[Bill Simmons]

They're going to be so bad. They're going to be like watching when you go like when your son started playing basketball and you're just watching these crazy 11 year old teams of people just running around not knowing who should have the ball.

[Zach Lowe]

So. All right, we should. There should be. Does the Reddit Bill Simmons page like your comparisons need to be tracked. Ayton has already been compared to multiple pieces of furniture. The Nets were compared to an 11 and under basketball team. I would love like how many metaphors in this podcast. Wonderful stuff.

[Bill Simmons]

I felt like I've been late. I feel like I could have dialed it up.

[Zach Lowe]

I mean I compared the Kings to the Hindenburg.

[Joe House]

You did do that.

[Bill Simmons]

Hawks, three overs. Oh, I want to do a lock so bad for them.

[Joe House]

Don't do it.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm too scarred from previous Hawks.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it's just, it's the hawks. Miami under 38 and a half for me, over for you guys.

[Zach Lowe]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Charlotte 26 and a half. Over, over, over. Washington 20 and a half. I locked that one down as an Under. You went under.

[Zach Lowe]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

House went over. So you were light on the east coast locks.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm going to lock something now. I'm locking Orlando over 50 and a half. I feel strongly about this. I like being on Orlando by myself on the over and I'm going to lock it.

[Joe House]

Okay, you're allowed.

[Zach Lowe]

I'm going to get super behind that one.

[Bill Simmons]

So playoff teams, really quick before we go.

[Zach Lowe]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

If you just say in the top six, Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta. Do we all feel good about those four being four of the six playoff teams?

[Zach Lowe]

Yep.

[Joe House]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta. Would you put Milwaukee in there as the fifth playoff team?

[Zach Lowe]

I can tell you who my next two would be are Detroit and Milwaukee.

[Joe House]

Yeah, I have Detroit and Milwaukee in there also.

[Bill Simmons]

I have Milwaukee and then Detroit.

[Joe House]

Okay, so fine.

[Bill Simmons]

Playing Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto in some order.

[Zach Lowe]

Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto. I am kicking out Chicago.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay.

[Zach Lowe]

And I am putting in Philly. The Philadelphia 76ers.

[Joe House]

Okay, that's fair.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. Well, we just went for. What time did we start? A little before 10 o'. Clock. That was a four hour extravaganza. Joe House, pleasure as always.

[Joe House]

Pleasure.

[Bill Simmons]

Zach Lowe's hungry.

[Joe House]

We did it. We did it.

[Bill Simmons]

First one. Great work. Thanks to Chris. Amazing for hanging out.

[Joe House]

Great job.

[Bill Simmons]

Multiple hours with us. Thanks to Ronick as well and Eduardo. And I'm going to be back with one more podcast. We'll do some football. I don't know if you're going to be on it.

[Joe House]

What?

[Bill Simmons]

Well, maybe you'll be on it.

[Joe House]

We just went four and one. You saw it.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, yeah, we did go. Yeah, you will be on it. So I'll see you again on Thursday.

[Joe House]

Wow.

[Bill Simmons]

On behalf of myself and Con Knipple's family, we'll see you next time here on the BS Podcast. He lives with him. Must be 21 plus on President Select States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + on President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler, visit rg-help.com, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.orgchatinconnecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York.