The Bill Simmons Podcast

NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East

Guests: Zach Lowe (ESPN), Joe House
Date: October 15, 2025

Overview

This episode is the eagerly awaited Eastern Conference companion to the "Over/Unders" two-parter—an annual tradition where Bill Simmons, Zach Lowe, and Joe House dissect every NBA team's projected win totals for the upcoming season. After tackling the West in Part 1, this lively, in-depth conversation turns its attention to the East, where uncertainty reigns, and disagreements are plentiful. Using FanDuel’s latest lines as the baseline, the trio debate each franchise’s trajectory, key storylines, roster changes, and the likelihood of beating—or falling short of—the Vegas numbers. The conversation features analytics, narrative, and healthy doses of wisecracks, plus plenty of “lock” picks.

Key Discussion Points, Insights, and Notable Moments

1. Setting the Tone: "The East is a Freaking Abyss"

• Theme: Unlike the West—which the group describes as "old school" and "argument heavy"—Simmons frames the East as unpredictable: "We're about to head to the East, which is just a freaking abyss. And I can't wait." (01:05)
• Tradition: Wizards fan House jokes about always ending on his team's win total, calling it “the cherry in the sundae.” (02:22)

2. Central Division Breakdown

Cleveland Cavaliers – O/U 56.5

• Roster Changes: Lost Ty Jerome, Isaac Okoro; Added Lonzo Ball, Larry Nance, Thomas Bryant.
• Key Storyline: First true "Second Apron" test case—roster can’t be meaningfully changed due to salary cap restrictions.
• Simmons: "Is it good or bad for a contender to be trapped into running it back?" (03:16)
• Lowe: Thinks it’s fine, citing youth, fit, and injury excuses for last year's playoff disappointment.
• Mobley Leap: Consensus agrees Mobley could take a significant step—“What would an Evan Mobley MVP season look like for you, Zach?” (04:46).
• Picks:
  • House: Over – "57 wins is perfectly reasonable for this team." (07:03)
  • Lowe: Initially Under, citing concern about initial injuries. — “It’s weird to go under 56.5 on a 64-win team…” (07:49)
  • Simmons: Over, expects a more aggressive regular season.
  • Notable Moment: Lowe famously flips his pick midstream, calling it his "first midstream change," ultimately siding with the over. (09:27)

Detroit Pistons – O/U 46.5

• Added: Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, Javonte Green
• Lost: Tim Hardaway, Schroeder, Fontecchio, Malik Beasley
• Theme: The case for their growth may be overstated; last year’s 44–38 felt "deceiving" to Simmons.
• Lowe: Under—believes development isn’t always linear, sees offensive kinks, not enough shooting. (12:47)
• House: Under—Malik Beasley’s elite shooting loss is huge. (13:40)
• Simmons: Under—“47 felt rich to me.”
• Quote: “This is a team that's being thrown into a lot of taking a leap conversations and I'll just start… I don't really see it with Detroit.” (10:28)

Milwaukee Bucks – O/U 42.5

• Added: Miles Turner, Cole Anthony, deep bench shooters.
• Lost: Lopez, Dame Lillard, Connaughton.
• Narrative: Giannis is still there, coaching stability, shooting should support him. Skepticism arises from “will they trade Giannis?” rumors.
• House: Over, locks it in—“This team actually makes more sense than last year’s.” (17:24)
• All: Triple lock consensus—over is “dumbfounding,” “no-brainer.” (18:40)
• Notable Quote: Simmons: “I just don't see a world where this isn't like a 46-win team.” (16:24)

Indiana Pacers – O/U 36.5

• Key Issues: Lost Haliburton for the year, McConnell out a month, Turner now a Buck.
• Lowe: Under—too much of identity lost, “I just think they lost so much of their identity.” (26:13)
• House & Simmons: Over—believe in “serious dudes” culture, like Matherin’s improvement potential. Simmons leans hard over: “Borderline lock for me. I think they're going to be good." (30:18)
• Fun Segment: Simmons mangles “facsimile,” drawing podcast ribbing. (29:34)

Chicago Bulls – O/U 32.5

• Theme: “Safest non-tanking bet”; they always float around .500.
• House: Over—Donovan always gets 39+ wins, team never tanks: “That is the goal of the Chicago Bulls: to go to the play-in and lose to Miami.” (32:46)
• Lowe: Over—but sees regression; “34–48” feels right.
• Simmons: Over—team at least has a style, plus bench depth. Long riff on Bulls as Netflix rom-com. (35:21)
• Quote: “They just want to go 40–42 every year for the rest of the tournament.” (32:46)

3. Atlantic Division Breakdown

New York Knicks – O/U 52.5

• Additions: Yabaselli, Brogdon, Clarkson; Tibbs out, Mike Brown in
• Narrative: Deeper, motivated, strong continuity, possible pressure from future trade rumors (Giannis?).
• Lowe: Over—"I think this team is deeper. The core is hungry to prove we’re not just some sort of paper tiger.” (39:12)
• House: Lock over—predicts #1 seed: “I think the Knicks are the best team in the East.” (40:53)
• Simmons: Over—no hesitation despite “test-driving” the Under; likes Yabaselli; says 54–55 wins feels right.
• Quote: “This is the most exciting slash pressurized New York Knicks season from the jump since Patrick Ewing's prime.” (43:49)

Philadelphia 76ers – O/U 42.5

• Key Issues: Tanked last season, Embiid back (slimmer), McCain hurt.
• Lowe: Under, stay away—“There’s almost no number that’s realistic you could have given me where I’d take the over. I just can’t do it.” (45:53)
• Simmons: Under, reiterates skepticism about Embiid durability, playoff record.
• House: Under, jokes, “Better to go get a scratch ticket than to bet on this team going over.” (47:30)
• Quote: “It just was more fun when [Embiid] was really good… it was fun to have a guy like that in the league that might drop 60 on a Tuesday night…” (48:16)

Boston Celtics – O/U 42.5

• Key Issues: Major downgrades, Tatum out but vows miraculous comeback, rebounding issues, roster thinness.
• Lowe: Under—“They lost so much... if Derrick White misses 15 games, just, they have no margin.” (51:34)
• House: Under, sees .500 team at best: “This is a 500 team… it’s a fun, innovative, 60-threes-a-game team, but under.” (53:03)
• Simmons: Over (some reluctance, but bullish on system and scrappy guards).
• Fun Quote: “Jalen Brown said he’s on a track team, not a basketball team.” (53:45)

Toronto Raptors – O/U 39.5

• Theme: Questionable ceiling, but injuries crippled last season and they’re talent-rich.
• Lowe: Over—“Over by default... They have too much talent. I can get to 42 wins with this roster…” (58:35)
• House: Over, locks it—cites their transitional play: “They have the guys that can convert.” (61:13)
• Simmons: Over (reluctantly)—“I think they’ve spent all this money to lock in a 43–39 team.” (62:09)

Brooklyn Nets – O/U 19.5

• Consensus: Under, unanimous and emphatic—“This team’s going to be awful.” (63:08)
• Lowe: Offense will be “a mess.” (64:36)
• Simmons: Calls it a "hardcore lock" and likens their offense to "just watching crazy 11-year-olds run around not knowing who should have the ball.” (98:12)
• Riff: They try to name all seven Nets coaches over 15 years, in comic fashion. (66:01)

4. Southeast Division

Orlando Magic – O/U 50.5

• Additions: Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones, Jace Richardson
• Losses: Cole Anthony, KCP, Gary Harris
• Lowe: Over (locks it)—“This team’s defense is a legit top three to five defense. Paolo leap. Franz leap. I just think this team’s going to be a regular season wins machine.” (70:04)
• Simmons & House: Under—question young core readiness for high expectations.
• Quote: “51 and 31 is a really good record for a team that is pretty young, that’s adding a big Bane piece...” (72:32)

Atlanta Hawks – O/U 47.5

• Lost Capela, but finally gives Okongwu ‘the keys’ and adds shooting, defense.
• All: Over—Simmons: "I think this is a really fun regular season, get-some-wins, high 40s team.” (75:14)
• Lowe: Over, no hesitation: “No zag, emphatically over!” (77:01)
• Mini-debate: Can Hawks get two All-Stars with Jalen Johnson healthy? (78:44)

Miami Heat – O/U 38.5

• Key Issue: Tyler Herro out till at least December, likely longer.
• Lowe: Over (blind faith, “Heat culture” pick)—“Whatever you want to write on the court, they get points. They’re bringing back Miami Vice jerseys—that’s like five wins.” (83:12)
• Simmons: Hard under—without Herro, sees big problems.
• House: Over, not a lock, but Spolstra’s record and team resilience cited.

Charlotte Hornets – O/U 26.5

• Defense skeptical, but impact rookies, improved depth.
• All: Over—excited about Brandon Miller’s “extension year” & Charles Lee’s new leadership.
• Simmons: “I think they're going to be a competitive bad team… and I don't think the east is good.” (87:57)
• Lowe: “I might lock the Charlotte Hornets over. Which is insane.” (89:27)
• House: “We're asking for eight more wins… Brandon Miller is the most compelling to me.” (90:33)

Washington Wizards – O/U 20.5

• House: Tiny over, hopes for rookie breakout (Trey Johnson R.O.Y. bet).
• Lowe & Simmons: Under—expect veteran sell-off, see little cohesion: “This roster makes no sense if you actually put all these dudes together on a basketball court.” (94:08)

Notable Quotes & Fun Segments

• Lowe on being conflicted:
  “I’m doing my first midstream change. I'm going over 56 and a half.” (09:27)
• Simmons on the Bulls:
  “It’s like those romcoms on Netflix that my wife is trying to decide about—Kate Mara, Patrick Dempsey, and Connie Britton, all 34-and-48 teams.” (35:21)
• House on Miami:
  “This team in each of Spolstra’s 17 seasons has topped 36 wins… even when Jimmy tried to sabotage the basketball team.” (83:24)
• Simmons on the Nets:
  "It's like watching crazy 11-year-olds running around not knowing who should have the ball." (98:12)
• Lowe on the Knicks:
  “This is the most exciting slash pressurized New York Knicks season from the jump since Patrick Ewing's prime.” (43:49)
• Discussion on the East’s mediocrity:
  Simmons points out the six worst teams over the last decade are all Eastern Conference franchises. (35:53)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:22: House’s annual lament/joy about ending with the Wizards
• 09:27: Zach Lowe flips his Cavs pick “midstream”
• 18:35: The “Triple Lock” on the Bucks Over
• 30:18: Simmons calls Pacers “borderline lock” over
• 32:46: House on Bulls’ love for .500 mediocrity
• 39:45: House locks in Knicks over, “two-unit play on the one-seed”
• 47:30: House: “Better to go get a scratch ticket than bet on Philly’s Over”
• 51:34: Lowe’s case against the Celtics
• 70:04: Zach Lowe wars for the Magic over “hammering it”
• 77:01: Lowe “emphatically over” on Atlanta
• 83:12: Lowe’s blind faith pick for the Heat
• 89:27: Lowe contemplates locking the Hornets Over
• 98:12: Simmons locks (hardcore) Nets Under: “No scenario they win 20 games”

Final Playoff Picture Predictions (99:45)

• Consensus top six playoff teams: Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Detroit
• Play-ins: Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto (with Zach subbing in Philly for Chicago)

Overall Tone and Takeaways

The banter is sharp, self-deprecating, and deeply NBA-nerdy, as always. Simmons prods with hypotheticals and metaphors, House revels in his Wizardry and betting logic, and Lowe interrupts himself, shifts his picks, and uses well-reasoned caution. The East is painted as wide open, volatile, and in flux. Listeners eager for informed action or just an entertaining tour of the league will walk away ready for another unpredictable NBA regular season—armed with locks, leans, and lingering doubts.

End.