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Now on this podcast I'm going to be reacting to all the basketball tonight, plus the basketball yesterday at the very top of this. And then I have Todd McShay and Steve Mensch. We taped it earlier today. Whole bunch of NFL draft stuff. All of our thoughts. I threw some crazy stuff at them. Are there going to be any crazy wrinkles? What's going to happen in this draft? Covered it all. And then last but not least, Van Lathan came on because he saw the Michael Jackson movie and he thought it was abominable. And we talked about the movie and the state of biopics and documentaries and all the stuff that seems to be going in the wrong direction these days. So that's all coming up next. I'm going to join you right after the break. First Pearl Jam the Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA post season is here and FanDuel knows the only thing better than watching your favorite team win is winning along with them. Fanduel the best place to bet the teams players and plays during their playoff run. Build a same game parlay or try live betting and jump in after tip off. Don't forget, with FanDuel you get paid instantly when you win. Download the FanDuel sportsbook app now and play your game. 21 plus select states are 18 plus DC, Kentucky or Wyoming game problem call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatinc SAM. All right, I am taping this top part of the podcast. It is 10:23 Pacific time on Tuesday night because I stupidly stayed up until the end of this Lakers Rockets game thinking something spectacular would happen. And it was spectacular. If a rock fight that almost injured people in the first couple rows of the seats were spectacular with all the bricks and air balls and oh my God it was so bad. I'd like to apologize to Gehao and Eduardo who are my behind the scenes team. I made them stay up late. Now they have to put this podcast up because I thought it would be worth wasn't worth it. We should have done this two hours ago. KD came back so that was a wild card. He had nine turnovers, four, four or five in the fourth quarter. Partly his fault but also like a why is he out there? B why is he doing so much? Because he clearly didn't seem 100% Reed Shepherd. This might have been it for IME and Reed Shepherd. I think he played. What do I have here? 10 minutes, 0 for 4 for Reed shepherd, the number three pick of the 2024 NBA Draft, one pick ahead of Stefan Castle. Houston. They changed some stuff up. They pressured a game late with that idea. When you have Marcus Smart, LeBron James and Luke Kennard bringing the ball up, why not pressure those guys 94ft, Jaden McDaniel style? They didn't do that. I looked it up. They nobody has ever been fired during a series before. So I think Emea Doke is safe probably until after the series. But they're down.02. And the big thing for me, the fact that they didn't trade trade for CJ McCollum at any point during the season before Atlanta got him is just bonkers. It felt like the natural thing that was going to happen after Van V got hurt and the salary's kind of lined up. Houston has a bunch of extra picks. Washington basically, you know, they, they, they were ready to give away McCollum. They finally ended up putting him in a Trae Young deal, which really they're taking Trae Young off Atlanta's hands. McCollum goes and he's one of the stars of the of Game two and one of the potential stars of the playoffs. He's almost becoming a villain for on MSG with the New York fans, even though as he said after the game, I'm the least villainy guy possible. I don't know why Houston didn't trade for him. I don't get it. They thought they were good with the team. Like, they like having Van Vliet around. Van Vu, he can't play till next year. Like worst case scenario, he could just opt out of his contract. You can resign him. But it's weird to me that they didn't do anything. And the EME clearly doesn't trust Reed Shepherd. So can the Lakers actually pull this off? Because we got info today. Maybe Luca wouldn't be around until round two. That maybe, maybe Reeves was actually a better option to come back. I'm looking at the playoff odds right now. Houston, wow. Lakers minus. They're up to nothing in the series with Game 7 at home and they're minus 120 on FanDuel because everybody's like, well maybe Houston's going to turn around. I don't know. The team I watched tonight, I don't see it. I mean, just to come back from 2.0in a series, the percentages are against you, but the way they, the chemistry in the court. Durant not looking 100%. Sengun looks like he's already on Redfin looking at Milwaukee Houses for the inevitable Giannis trade that I'm starting to feel like could happen. Could the Lakers do this? And I don't know why I'm excited about it because I hate the Lakers, but it would just be more fun to have them in the next series if Luka can come back against okc. By the way, okc, big winner of round one, right? Like Wemby gets concussed, which we'll talk about in a second. But that series looks like it's going to go longer. Denver, Minnesota is going to be a war. Meanwhile, OKC is going to cruise through round one and then they're going to get one of these two teams in round two. Holy shit. Panic rankings. I wanted to take you into the NBA panic room really quick. I have the Rockets now. Number one. Because if you lose this series to. If you lose this series to this Lakers team. You got to be kidding me. Honestly, you got to be kidding me. That would be just one of the dumbest playoff losses I could remember. Your 41 year old LeBron Luke Canard, who anybody could have had. Marcus Smart hitting corner threes. Jackson Hayes is out there. I just can't believe it. How many lottery picks does Houston have? I think out of the. I think they had five or six guys who were taken like in the top five of the lottery. Oh, my God. Anyway, I have Houston number one. And I blame Houston for the fact that it's 1027 and I'm doing a podcast right now. Anyway, number two, the Spurs WEMBY gets concussed on the night that he is given the defensive player of the year award. And it looked bad immediately. Was not great. And I don't. In football, the concussion protocol is like at least a week. Who knows with basketball. He's definitely not going to be in Game 3, but maybe he comes back for Game 4. But at the very least, Portland steals one. If you're San Antonio. There's some questions that come out of that game that I had already been thinking about. Wemby comes out of it. Obviously he's their best offensive player. But my fear with them all along was like shot creation in half court. When you're in a playoff atmosphere and you've got to create shots and really it was just Fox. Fox was the only. Everything was on Fox and Portland. Portland could kind of shut it down. And then it comes down to Jrue holiday, who had 16, five and nine. Classic Drew winning basketball. Gets the block in the corner, gets the go ahead basket on the. Put back on an airball like always in the right place, right time. That's why they traded for him. And then this scoot Henderson game, 31 points. So Nick Wright texted me this. He now has 10 more career playoff points than Wemby. I feel like I'm still in it with Scoot. Can't give up yet. I thought Scoot was awesome today. Now he had one rebound and zero assists. But the defense and the fearlessness and the athleticism was what we thought it might be. When I was arguing him versus Brandon Miller and I conceded to koc. Sorry, Kevin o'. Connor. I conceded to you two months ago that you Won the Brandon Miller versus Scooter argument. Now I feel like I'm alive. I just climbed out of the coffin. And congrats to Portland owner El Cheapo. Who? Who? The guys after the game. They were pouring tap water on each other because he probably didn't have alcohol in the locker room. But El Cheapo gets a win. Now that goes back to Portland for game three. No T shirts for those fans because those T shirts are expensive. That. Anyway, the Spurs, I have them at the top here in the panic because if they don't have Wemby for either of these Portland games, I think Portland's legitimately good. Like Toronto, bogus five seed. Just bogus with a capital B. Houston, bogus five seed. Not capital B bogus, but bogus. Portland, Frisky seven seed. Like I think Portland's a better playoff team than either Houston or Toronto. So you're going to Portland. The energy is going to be amazing. El Cheapo is going to be shooting out. Probably used T shirts out of 15 year old cannon T shirt cannons. I can't wait for this weekend, but we'll see. What do the spurs have in them without Wemby? They signed Luke Cornett over the summer who is one of the best free agent signings of the summer. Big game for him, obviously. Game three, game four. They're going to need a lot more from him. But as crazy as it sounds like Portland, this could be a long series and I don't think Portland's going to go away. This is a team that knows who they are. Really good defensively. Kamar, I thought, did a great job down the stretch and little feistier of a series. I think. San Antonio was -1400 heading into the series. So it's a one one going back to Portland. We're definitely not going to have one before game three. We'll see. That is my number two panic team. So Houston, San Antonio. Number three is Detroit. They're playing tomorrow night. They got their ass kicked at home in game one and they've lost 11 straight playoff games. This would be the 12th if they lose game two. Orlando has a ton of confidence. They're catching this Orlando team that just did a 180 that hit rock bottom, crawled out of it. We talked about it on Sunday night and might not give a shit anymore. It might just feel like fuck it, maybe we're better than these guys. This is a Normandale and Hoosiers moment for JB Bickerstaff in the Pistons. This is JB looking at these guys. Maybe they're right about us. Maybe we weren't a 1 seed. He's got to start challenging them a little bit. I think this Detroit Orlando game Wednesday night a must watch. I think it's going to be violent. I expect. Like I don't know if you're watching the hockey, but Bruins Buffalo almost had two different bench cooling brawls. It brought me back to 1988 when I really loved the Bruins the most, the 70s and 80s. And we played Buffalo and I think it was 600 plus penalty minutes in a six game series. And multiple bench clear fights. Guys just fighting every game the same guys like Jay Miller. I think that we had Willie Plett, I think they had Clark Gillies. I forget they had another fighter. But just every game the same guys were fighting. I don't think Detroit Orlando is going to be like that, but I think it's going to get feisty tomorrow. I think this is one of those Detroit's going to lay the smackdown, try to give the physicality. I think Orlando likes when it gets physical. They like that kind of action and that's a must watch. But I would be really nervous if I'm Detroit because Orlando, you know, there's two kinds of upsets. There's the Philly kind that we'll talk about in a second against Boston in Game 2. And then there's the we actually belong on the court might be better than you guys upset. And I felt like Orlando in that one. Now they're nine point underdogs in game two, which I think is too high. There's a lot of data going for if the home team gets blown out into game one as a big favorite and Sac talked about that on Sunday. But I think Orlando can play with these guys. So Detroit's my number three. The Nuggets are number four. First Nuggets lost yesterday in 33 days. I have multiple concerns coming out of the game 1. Aaron Gordon not healthy. I thought he got banged up in different ways in game one and then game two just didn't look like himself. So you lose rim protection, you lose the crazy athleticism, you lose the reckless threes in the corner that go in all that stuff. I didn't think he seemed like the same guy. Not his fault. I just think he's banged up. I think he's been banged up all year. Second biggest thing, Jokic's threes, which we've seen come and go in the playoffs. If you really put a beating on him, which Minnesota did. Minnesota had Randle beating on him. They had Gobert beating on him. They had elbows, Nas Reeds beating on him and they just tried to wear him down. And it got to the point it felt like they were leaving him open a little bit and I think he was one for seven. A lot was made out of the Gobert one on one defense against Joker. I didn't think that's why they won. I thought they won because the physicality of all four quarters combined with the third thing I want to mention, McDaniels. You know, you could see what the game plan was in game two. It was like McDaniels is going to hound Jamal Murray 94ft. And I don't know why more teams don't do this when you have a Jaden McDaniels. But I thought Murray was just gassed in the fourth quarter because McDaniels was just wearing him down. And in his T shirt which is. I think he wears the T shirt inside the jersey which I support. I thought he wore him down. So you have McDaniels 94ft. You've Gobert with the one on one D. You have Ant with the rim protection. You have Randall and Naz Reed being super physical and then you have DeFincenzo with some big ball shots and you have Bones island as just a random Deion Waiters. We might have to rename Deon Waiters on rewatchables. And then you have on offense everyone attacking the rim because they know if Gordon's a little compromised, Joker's not really a shot blocker. They're going to. So when I think about upsets, I said this after game one to Zach. Even though Minnesota didn't play that well, I felt like they the physicality, they seemed very comfortable and I thought it was a little concerning. After game one, they didn't play that well, but they still were in the vicinity of winning the game. Game two, super comfortable. And it's a team that thinks they're better than Denver. So if I'm a Nuggets fan a I'm more concerned than I was four days ago that I was getting out of this series. They were 3 to 1 to win the series. Now I'm concerned. I'm also concerned what happens if I get out of this series because now I'm playing San Antonio. I have a lot of miles on me from round one and then I still have OKC waiting for me in round three and they're going to do all the same physical beat you up stuff that Minnesota's doing now. This was the case. I thought Denver was going to make the finals. The case against it was the road is too hard and the way this is playing out, that case might have been right, I might have been wrong. I thought Minnesota was alive, potential could put it together for four rounds. But Ant, who didn't even seem like he was 100% healthy all the time yesterday, combined with McDaniels coming back from injury, I just didn't think they were going to be able to put it together like that. But man, they looked like a conference finalist last night. So either of these teams playing San Antonio is going to be an incredible series. And I thought last night I thought that was like watching a Game 5 of a conference finals level quality of basketball. I loved it. I would be nervous if I was Denver. I wouldn't be quite as nervous if I'm the Knicks. But I'm a little nervous because game two against Atlanta, it picks some scabs for me. Right? Are we too Brunson centric? Are we sure Mike Brown is a good coach? Is Mikal Bridges playing tonight? Oh, he's played 32 minutes. I didn't realize it. Oh, he took the last shot of the game with five seconds left. I forgot he was on the team. They had a bunch of that stuff going. The backup guards, McBride was bad. Shame it was bad. So they got nothing really from their bench other than Clarkson made a couple plays and the Towns piece of it. Now my Knicks fan friends were like, why didn't Towns get the ball more? You know, why would we be so Brunson centric? Kamika was doing a good job on Towns. So I think it was a combination of he was being really physical with them. They found something with that small ball lineup. And if I was the Knicks and I rooted for the Knicks, the thing that would make me the most nervous other than Josh Hart was the best player on my team in game two. I would be nervous that Alexander Walker and Jalen Johnson. Alexander Walker didn't really play well in either either game and Jalen Johnson did not shoot well in the second game. And it's one to one and they're going back where I think they're pretty good in Atlanta. So I'd be nervous that Alexander Walker hasn't gotten going yet. And then the CJ McCollum piece he was doing, getting to whatever spot he wanted. You have these two wings, an Anobian Bridges that you've traded all this capital and gave big contracts to and over and over again he was just getting away from those guys and trying to repeatedly get brunson on him. McCollum's like having this is a moment for him, right? This is the afterthought. In Portland, Dame's teammate put it a million trade rumors. Even got mad at me publicly a couple times. Kind of bounces around, ends up in Washington, becomes such an afterthought that Houston doesn't even trade for him. And now he's wearing it. Now he's ready to be the foil in the Knicks series. So I would be. I wouldn't be crazy nervous if I was the Knicks. What are the odds in this series? They are, yeah. Minus 174 on FanDuel. That seems about right. I thought the Knicks were going to win in six. I still think that. But the C.J. piece was unexpected. We'll see if he can keep it going. And then the last one for a panic team, the Celtics. So I would have ranked on the bottom here. First of all, in game twos, I don't know what happens to them. They're 5 and 5 in their last 10 playoff home game twos. They lost to the Knicks last year. Miami and Cleveland in 24. The Miami game was one of the dumbest losses of all time. They lost to Miami in 23. Then they lost to Nate. Philly did exactly what I thought they were going to do. They shot a bunch of threes. Edgecomb got hot. I think he was 6 for 10. He had a 30 and 10 was super comfortable. And then Maxey got going a little bit. The Celtics were playing this just insanely dumb drop coverage that I didn't understand for the life of me and giving up. I think it was 91:89. Boston has the ball, about to take the lead. Tatum jacks up a bad three. And then Maxey, I think hit two straight threes on that stupid drop coverage. So The Celtics were 13 for 50 from three. And Sean Grandy, my friend who does the radio for the Celtics said regular season and playoffs, that's the 12th time in the last 161 games the Celtics have failed to shoot better than 26% from three. And they've lost all 12, including Game 1 and Game 2 against the Knicks and then this game last night. So the question is, total aberration or are they starting to look a little like Knicks? Serious Celtics last year. I will say the two things that scare me a tiny bit. Derrick White has really been bad from three since January 1st. He's under 31% from three now. He's two for 10 tonight. And the Knicks seemed the Sixers seemed totally fine with him shooting from three, whereas I think in November and December would not have been as fine. He got to the point I was wondering if they might take him out and put Shireman in, which was the second thing I didn't understand. Shireman only played 11 minutes. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. Indispensable. And that led to the third thing I didn't understand. The move seemed to me go small with Tatum at the five because you could still get the rebounding from him, Tatum, Brown, Shireman, Pritchard and White. Or take White out and put Hauser in. I just, I didn't really understand the lineups. I voted for Joe for coach of the year. I did not think he had a good game today. And the Vucevic thing I just don't get. I know offensively he had decent stats, but I think he really hurts them defensively and I thought the Sixers took advantage of him. I don't think he's fast enough to jump out on three point shooters. He's not really a rim protector. And if I'm playing the Sixers and there's no Embiid and I'm playing Bona and Drummond like I'm fine going small against them. Let's go small again. What are they going to do, post up one of those guys? So playing tatum at the 5 seems like the move. It did worry me a little that they looked like game one, game two, 2025 Knicks. I did get some flashbacks, some PTSD. My daughter and my dad were there and my daughter was furious after the game. I was very proud. But she was excited that they showed them on the Jumbotron and my dad wasn't looking and she was hitting him to look. And multiple people texted me about this, that it was like watching a little sitcom with my dad and my daughter. So congrats to them. Wish I had been there. I'm not nervous about this Celtics series yet. Right now the odds are Celtics minus 5 10. So FanDuel is not nervous either. The Portland odds. Portland is plus 410 to win the series. Now San Antonio is minus 550, the only series. The two series seem like a wrap. Phoenix OKC and Toronto Cleveland. And it's unclear Toronto should have just passed on the playoff invitation. Like when you get invited to a wedding and you send your regrets and you send a gift. I kind of wish Toronto had done that with the playoffs. All right, that's the, that's, that's the panic. The NBA panic. Room heading into tomorrow night. Can't wait to watch Orlando and Detroit again. I'm sorry to everybody at the ringer that I made you stay up tonight. We're going to take a break. We're going to go backwards in time. I'm going to talk to McShay and Mensch, big long convo about the NFL draft. And I'm going to look a lot more awake in one second after this break. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA playoffs are here. Everything's on the line. Every possession matters. Every bucket swings the game. And tonight is your shot. 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B
I love.
A
Last time I talked to you, we weren't. I wasn't that excited about the draft. And then you kind of 45 minutes later you fluffed me a little bit. Yeah, you got me a little excited about it.
C
He's a great fluffer.
A
Barely excited by the End now I'm way more excited.
B
It's. There's. There's never a bad draft, man.
A
That's the thing.
B
Like, even the.
C
For entertainment, for entertainment value, there's never a bad draft. There's bad drafts where there's no players.
A
Right? Yeah. But it's like Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving is always going to be good because at some point there's going to
B
be food to eat and it always gets hectic. There's always family drama before Thanksgiving. It's the same thing here. And like, I got lied to. I think about the jets pick, and that's okay. I'm here for it.
A
You got lied to?
B
I think so.
A
I did. See, you did a little switch.
B
Marvel Reese.
A
Yeah. Yeah. Double bag.
B
And by the way, like, the draft's not here. We'll see what happens. But I get the strong sense that the jets worth getting that out there. I always get nervous about because I was the only one saying Arbel Reese, so. And then a couple other people a little bit. But I always get nervous when everyone, all of a sudden on a Monday, after a weekend talks are saying the same thing. So the Jeremiah love thing, I just. I worry about that at number number three. But it looks like Bailey, they're doing a good job of being really quiet about it, even though there's really no reason that to be quite outside of. Hey, everyone thinks we're taking Bailey.
A
David Bailey, but who are they trying to fake out?
B
Listen, David Bailey. I actually had to have this internal conversation with myself. David Bailey's been kind of what everyone in league circles has kind of assumed right for a while. Let's throw out there, we might take Arvell Reese and see if someone's more interested in Reese and get them. Because there's people talking about Arizona. We're going to move whichever pass rusher doesn't go to go to the pick is open at Arizona at number three. Why not us? Get the phone calls. I have a feeling that that's what was going on.
A
The only thing I don't like about this theory is it's the Jets. That involves foresight, a plan, understanding strategy, like chess moves, moving around.
B
Yeah. And if it's true and what I'm kind of surmising, then I think. I think Darrell Muji is doing a pretty good job of managing this thing.
A
If there are two guys who play the same position, basically, and people are arguing about which one's better. I always parachute in the draft every year, basically knowing nothing and trying to learn on the fly, why wouldn't you take the guy who's two years younger. Is that just too obvious or am I not?
B
It's actually not. You would be. I don't think you'd be surprised. But it's surprising how much because Reese
A
is two years younger.
B
Emphasis is put into the age for a defensive prospect specifically.
A
But if it was me, I would take the younger guy. He is two years. It's like getting a car from 2024 versus 26 or something. But it's a five year lease. Of miles.
C
It's a five year lease. You're not going to keep it for the life of the car. You know what I mean? So if you like the car better and you get a better lease than take the lease.
A
But nobody can agree which one of these guys are better, why wouldn't I just take the younger guy?
B
I would take Arvell Reese. But I've got to have a defensive. The general manager. I've got to have a defensive coach that can lay out what exactly is the plan to show me how it's going to work? Because this guy's more talented. Okay. The talent isn't quite developed. He's a one year starter at Ohio State. He started.
A
So that means hires higher talent, higher bus potential.
B
Yes.
D
Okay.
B
Yeah.
C
Someone brought this up on X. I want to. I actually meant to run this by you before we even got on here, but we're talking about the jets again. So if you have a plan for
A
this kid, that's great.
C
Is Aaron Glenn gonna be their head coach next year?
B
Right.
A
Or in October.
C
Or in October.
A
Like exactly.
B
So then.
C
Then the plan's out the window. And if you're, if you're Muji, are you thinking to yourself, I don't know who's going to be that guy?
B
Which next year I'm going to take the.
C
The guy who's been playing edge his whole life.
B
The information I got 10 days ago, I think it's 10 days now. It was. It was the Sunday before. This past Sunday was. What's your football sense? If you want the sure thing and the Daryl Muji is. Is a human risk aversion. I compared it yesterday. Along came Paulie Ben Stiller.
A
Right.
B
Like just a human risk aversion corporation walking down the street like everything's about risk. And apparently that's kind of his DNA and his makeup. I would argue the better player who the fallback is. I'm getting Devin Lloyd. That to me is less risk than drafting David Bailey. And maybe he's just a DPR designated pass rusher. And he's not very good versus the run. So, like, it's true. But this guy we know can rush the quarterback better than anyone in this draft. And yes, it's with speed and yes, he's got to kind of get stronger and all that. But let's go with the guy that's proven as a pass rusher because that's the most important thing you can do in this league outside of being a quarterback.
A
FanDuel has Reece minus 130. Bailey plus 115 on Tuesday afternoon as we record.
C
Did that flip from yesterday.
B
Yes. Yeah, this morning I looked. This morning I looked and it was like it was still plus 160. And then I looked four hours ago and it was minus 110. So it is shifting rapidly. Yeah.
A
Betting on the draft is like betting on roulette while doing cocaine. It's insane. The odds are just. Oh, it's just going crazy at all times. I would. I never do draft bets. The only one that seems like it hits every year is like the more offensive lineman than we thought, right? Yeah, seems like every year it's like, no, it's going to be seven. No, actually it's ten.
B
Yep.
A
Because we get in the draft and everybody's like, oh, fuck, we need a right tackle.
B
I bet it's at eight and a half. I haven't looked, but I would Bet it's at 8 and a half for.
C
I would take.
B
For the over unders. Yeah.
A
So there's going to be a second
C
guard that sneaks in, right.
B
Like from Georgia.
A
Seven and a half.
C
Oh, I see.
A
That seems like you fucking bang that one. Right? Pound it right now it'd be at least nine.
B
Take it right now.
A
I laugh whenever I see there's going
B
to be at least eight. There's seven tackles and one guard.
C
I think nine. But yeah, you're right, it's going to be eight.
A
The Patriots could take somebody.
B
Ian Acho are still sitting there at 31. Absolutely. Yeah. You putting that in right now?
A
No, I'll do it after. I have a bunch of questions tied to the draft, but this is my favorite one. What do the Giants do at number five? Because they also have number ten. Yeah. If the first four picks.
B
Yep.
C
Okay.
A
Mendoza Reese to the Jets. Arizona says fuck it and takes love.
C
Yep.
A
And then Salah and Tennessee go fuck it and they take Styles. So it goes. Mendoza Reese loves Styles. Now the Giants are on the clock. What happens?
B
Bailey.
A
You think they would take Bailey anyway?
B
With Bailey, I was told by somebody that because even if you flip flop and it's Bailey. It's Bailey at 2, and it's Reese at 5. Sitting at 5. Either way. I was told, but I don't believe it, that they would. They would take the edge rusher best available, and Kayvon Thibodeau would be traded.
C
That was a little nugget in Schefter's article.
A
He had all these trade guys.
C
These are guys that could be traded. And all of a sudden you see Kayvon Thibodeau, and I was like, I haven't heard that name.
B
Yeah, but that was last year's trade. That was going to happen. Rem. Yeah. Yeah. Well, they'll.
A
They'll draft. So all of a sudden it was in there.
C
I was like, that's. That jumps out to me. So if they. They could get rid of one of them.
B
The Giants are fascinating, right? Because the Giants are sitting there at 5, and now they've got picked 10,
A
which was an awesome trade. I didn't talk about that trade on the podcast. I. That was like. I was staggered by that trade.
B
Yeah.
A
You're trading a defensive tackle. I know he's good, in his late, late 20s, is expensive and doesn't.
B
Yeah, it doesn't work.
A
And now I just get to reset with the 10th pick in a draft that basically has 12 good guys and then drops off like, that's. That trade's a miracle.
B
Yeah.
A
I thought the Giants would have had to throw in at least, like, a third to even the Cesar.
B
There's something about the Ravens. Like, the. The Ravens like Ozzie Newsom and down to Eric Dacosta. Now it seems like they. They sit back, they're patient, they wait. They exploit other teams. And now Harbaugh comes from the Ravens exploiting other teams for being overly eager in a moment.
C
Who's stopping the run for the Giants, though? I mean, they have.
B
I mean, they were, like, giving up
A
five yards of carry. That might be the 10th pick. There's no defensive tackles there. You don't. You don't like Fox just reaching or maybe trading back five spots, but they.
B
They pick 35 in the second round.
C
Yeah, they'll get a guy there. They'll get a good guy there.
B
They'll get a guy there.
A
I thought for the Bengals that. I interrupted you. The Bengals, that trade was insane. You're paying like 110 million a year to a quarterback and two receivers. You've holes all over the place.
C
And I give her 28 million a year.
A
Your defense is terrible. And it's like, well, we're going to get this guy. We're going to bring him in. He's the best defensive attack in the league. Cool. Now he's going to be double teamed the whole time.
B
Yeah.
A
You have nobody else on your def. Like as an AFC fan of the Patriots.
B
Yeah.
A
I was like great trade guys. You did it. Yeah. You're going to be a fucking mess.
B
But the Giants sit there at 5, right. And a week ago we would have said Caleb Downs is one of the players they'd like. The safety from Ohio State, Jordan Tyson is one of the players. They don't conceal their interest in players like Joe Shane goes they, Shane and Harbaugh were already at the Arizona State pro day where Jordan Tyson didn't work out.
A
Yeah.
B
And then Shane went back out for the air. The, the Jordan Tyson workout which was just like 30 something routes and catching the ball.
A
Yeah, that was a don't get hurt workout.
C
Yeah.
A
Injury prone guy working out all the time. Just run a straight line and turn around. Yeah. But everyone loved it.
C
It was a great workout.
A
Yeah.
B
And then has I think dinner with Tyson or so. We know there's interest there but I don't know, a week, 10 days ago we would have said you better take downs at 5 and you can get Tyson at 10. I honestly think with, with sitting at 7 would be a possibility. Although I think Dan Coin is going defense there. He's pushing with Adam Peters to go defense and it could be Sonny Stiles if not Styles. Caleb Downs at 7, but 8 is, 8 is New Orleans and that could be a spot where, where Jordan Tyson goes.
A
9 Kansas City. Sounds like a dissertation.
B
9 Kansas City, George Tyson, New Orleans
A
sounds just sounds awful. Why, what do you mean?
B
But
A
don't they have like a top three worst medicine training, recovery like situation them in the Pelicans?
B
I mean Chris Olave, that's worked for him, right?
A
Yeah.
B
He always nervous. So regardless, my point is I don't know that Tyson gets there and so Caleb Downs is much more likely to get there but may not get there either. So. And then you hear about.
A
But there's no scenario where they can end up with Downs and Styles.
B
The Giants, they don't want Styles apparently
A
because they signed Edmonds.
B
They signed Edmonds?
A
Yeah.
C
Honestly that deal's not huge though.
B
It's not, it's not huge.
A
I mean that's the Mack daddy move because I was looking at the Giants odds first of all seven and a half wins over under for that. Like all the signs for them are they're going to be this year's Patriots. Right. Healthy. Fourth place, schedule, new coach. Like, just. They're checking all the boxes. 7F win seems too low. Plus 280 for the playoffs, plus 550 for the division. That seems too high. If they got two blue chip, blue chip, blue chip, five and 10 guys and then hit the second round pick, you're good right away. Yeah, because they already had a bunch of good players and they underachieved last year. How many times do they have the lead in the second half of a game?
B
What if Jeremiah Love is still sitting there at five?
C
You love this. You want to give love to everyone, but yeah, I get it. Scout's not going to stay healthy.
A
No, I hear you. Well, so if they got love and downs and you got the best running back in the draft by far, and then you have a safety and I want to talk about downs in a second. You just get the two best guys in the position who four years from now could be like all pros or three years from now, whatever. But the downs thing, I was just on tailgate. I stopped by there for a second. We do this with the draft every year. I've talked to you about it before. Where everyone knows downs is going to be awesome. He's going to go like 10th, and then three years from now, we're going to do the redraft. And it's like number two, Caleb Downs, Kyle Hamilton. Ed Reed crossed with Kyle Hamilton. He's just amazing. And wow, what a great pick. It's like. But we knew that before this draft that he was going to be a great pick. So how do you go 10th?
B
It's the position value thing. And then you add to position value. He. He didn't run. We know he's not. Like, his miles per hour is equated, like 4.5 type 40. Not as long as. So, yeah. So you got all those things working against you. But. But why not? He's not gonna fall.
A
Same thing for Hamilton. Right. It's like, what Is he running 40? Yeah.
B
Is he a hybrid?
A
Well, turned out. It turned out great. Yeah. Yeah.
B
Really great. So I think he could go as high as seven, maybe five, but it would. I don't know. The Giants are fascinating. And also there's like this. You don't pay Harbaugh, what, 100 million to be the guy without letting him be the guy. And that's the indication I get. But there seems to be nervous, too. Yeah.
A
He was on pace to getting fired the first Lamar Jackson year. Yep. And then Lamar Jackson Saved his ass. Last couple years weren't awesome. And then it's like, here are the car keys. Make all the decisions for us.
C
Do you see what Zay Flowers said?
B
What?
C
The practices. That's why we had so many injuries. The practices were too hard. He didn't know how to manage our workload. He doesn't do well with the current players. Like he just doesn't know how to
A
pull back a little bit.
C
And that would be interesting. And he's got a bunch of all gas, no brakes guys in scatterboo and dart and you kind of want those guys to maybe pull back a little bit. And it's not like the Giants have been staying real healthy. It's a good point.
B
Yeah. No, well, I mean, I just. I'm fascinated which way they go because it's the first pick there. You get the sense this is Joe Shane's last is the gm, but I don't know, you know. Yeah, he had a tremendous management of a draft last year. But the last time they had two top 10 picks, it was what, Thibodeau and another Evan Neil maybe. I think it was Evan Neal. And so are we going to repeat history with that and the offensive tackle. Are you waiting to 10 to get an offensive tackle? Yeah.
C
No offensive tackles were off the board in that scenario, right?
B
It was. Right.
A
Well, that's the other thing. We lived through this with the draft every year where it's like, yeah, I don't think they'll go to nine or 10 and then they go six and teams get in there and they just panic. They can't figure out who to pick and they just go with size, how high, what's the highest downs could go that you would be either of you. That you would be actually kind of shocked by. Like Arizona is out of the question.
B
Top four would be anywhere in the top four. So Tennessee. But he's not going there. So yeah, it wouldn't shock me if
C
he went fifth, but I wouldn't do it. And I just heard you guys say all those things about it. But give me a top eight offensive tackle in the league versus the best safety. Like that's going to win games.
A
I get it. I was doing all the research for running backs. Cause this ties into the love conversation. And it feels like top five is just too high for certain positions. Even though we know when we redo the draft. But 6 to 10 is not too high. So if you go through all the running backs, basically the last 20 years, the 2, 2, 2 and 3 were Ronnie Brown Bush, Reggie Bush, Barkley and Trent Richardson. So I'm going to say those first four, three of them. No way. That team does it again.
B
No. And Red Barkley.
A
Barkley's still defensible.
C
Yes, 100%.
A
He was incredible. Right. And it was. And who was the next pick? It was a quarterback. It was like Trubisky or somebody.
C
I don't remember.
A
It was a quarterback.
B
13th overall, but yeah.
A
No, Trubisky was third, remember?
B
Oh, no, he was third.
A
The Bears, Mitchell, it was some sort of QB, so.
B
Yes. Yeah, it might have been Trubisky. Yeah.
A
So two, two, two, three. We went one for four. Even if you count Barkley as a
B
hit, he's a hit. It was their problem.
C
And you don't count Reggie Bush.
B
Right?
A
I don't.
C
I don't either.
A
He won a Super Bowl. Yeah. No, I don't.
C
But Pierre Thomas was the better running back in the super bowl in that year.
A
So 4, 4 and 6. Leonard Fortnette, Darren McFadden and Genti. Last year, by the way, that was. I think. I don't think any of those teams do that again. Even Genti, who I thought had some moments, but I just don't think the Raiders would have done that if they could redo that. I think they would take alignment.
B
Yeah. Yeah. Get a year ahead.
A
But now we go to 7, 8.
B
I think he's going to have a good year this year. But, yes, I agree with the.
C
Now you're getting to like the bichon
A
and Peterson, seven, McCaffrey, eight, Bijan, eight. Yeah. Pretty good value. Yeah. And then C.J. spoer, nine. Zeke Elliott, 10, Gurley, 10. All right, so this is a fucking random sample size. But what I learned from that is maybe wait till 6 to 10 to take love. Because history says you go earlier. That's a mistake.
B
Yeah. And it probably indicates teams that are a little bit better than the trash at the time, you know?
A
Right.
B
You know, teams picking. It's like the Chiefs are picking at nine, you know.
D
Right.
A
You're going to a better state. Peterson was in a good situation pretty immediately in Minnesota.
B
Right.
A
So whereas, like, Genti goes to the Raiders and it's not a good situation,
B
typically four doesn't go to the Super Bowl. Like pick four doesn't go to the Super Bowl. That's not a normal, you know, occurrence like we saw with the Patriots last year. So I. It's all about where they wind up landing.
A
All.
B
All positions are dependent upon to a certain degree. Quarterback. Absolutely. But running back, I would Argue maybe the most dependent upon what you have in front of you and how you can. How you can block it up. And the Raiders weren't ready. And all those teams you mentioned weren't ready for that guy.
A
So did you guys, like the Bengals trade for the Bengals or. No.
B
The Bengals trade for Lawrence?
A
Yeah.
B
No.
A
Okay. Yeah. I just wanted to make sure.
C
Here's the thing.
A
I don't like it in a lot of drafts.
C
I don't hate it as much in this draft. I really don't. Because he. He's by far the best defensive tackle in this class. If he was to be there, like, who are you getting a 10 that's better than Dexter Lawrence?
A
So you'd rather have four years of Lawrence versus the 10th pick in this draft?
C
Yes.
B
The only part.
A
But you're paying more. And then.
C
I know that's the issue, but that's where I.
A
That's.
C
That's a blind spot. That's a weakness for me. Me that I. I like the cap guy figured that out for me. But I hear you. You're right. You gotta factor it in.
A
I know. Well, wasn't part of it that they had the cap space to grab the extra money to fit in and so basically, instead of paying the 10th pick this. They could pay the 10th pick this.
B
Yes. Yes.
A
I just would never do it. I would rather trade. First of all, the Bengals needed players. I'd rather trade backwards and try to pick up more stuff. Yeah, true.
B
The problem is urgency that is created by situations. And that's why I started this with the Ravens. Have always been good at this. This thing, and some organizations are really good at. There's going to be an opportunity by an organization that is going to be presented to us because they're desperate. And if you've got Joe Burrow and the injuries and the timeline and now the contracts with the wide receivers. You are desperate to win, though. And I think this is a desperate move. And honestly, it almost never pays off. If you go look at the history, these desperate moves almost never pay off.
A
I wonder if somebody could run a football team and just stick to. Somebody hires me as the GM and I'm just like, I only have seven principals, guys. I'm never paying two receivers a lot of money. I'm good in the draft. I'm just taking alignment on one side of the ball or the other. That's all I'm doing. Yeah, I'm going to try to get us a quarterback. Like, just. I'm always going to trade back if I can't decide what to do. And these are my seven tenants. And I'll leave everything else to my scouting department. I've always stayed doing this.
C
No one can stick to it, though. They always fall in love with the player. You know, if I ever got a
B
GM job, if I ever gone that route and taken some opportunities, I've always said there's a couple people in my life I would hire full time.
A
The common sense guys.
B
The common sense guys who are paying, like, Pete Woodfork, works for Major League Baseball. Pain in my ass my whole life, since we're like 10 years old. Always does the right thing, sticks by the. You know, and like, so you're the
A
jets gm, and you call Pete and you're like, reese or Bailey, what would you do? And he's like, what the.
B
No, I'm hiring him and you're hiring and he. And I'm gonna give him, like, four or five things that he's allowed to overrule me on because my emotion or the situation or.
D
No way.
C
You would never give anyone that power.
B
I'm telling you, there's certain. Certain things that are blind spots for all of us, including general managers in the NFL. And there are certain principles. If you just stick to them, it's like playing. It's like playing blackjack, like, over time. But, like, who has the patience to play?
A
So you wouldn't let him overrule you on, like, three things. You wouldn't hire him.
C
I think I'm off the list after the Dexter Lawrence thing.
B
There are a couple things.
C
I think I just got cut.
B
He's a good. He's a good bot. We bounce off of one. One another. Well. But I don't think there's anything hard.
C
Is that we're calling it bouncing off one another. Argue.
A
That's really cute, guys.
C
Yeah.
B
Thanks.
A
We're gonna get this all week. Yeah.
D
Exactly.
B
Live for the first and second night of the NFL draft, we'll be bouncing off one another.
A
It is funny. Like, Jalen Rose and I, when we were doing the countdown show in 2013, we did this gimmick called the interview, and we went to the lottery combine or wherever, and we interviewed every person. We spent 15 minutes with each one in like, a. We had cameras and just rapid fire. Get a feel the players for each person.
B
Yep.
A
And I can totally see how the. How the people can get enamored with certain players now. Ironically, the ones we got enamored with actually turned out to be good. Like, we love C.J. mcCollum. Yeah. We were like, this Guy's great. Like, he seems really mature, like, and then his tape. And we're like, I would bet on this guy. But the reality is you're spending 15 to 20 minutes with somebody and you're overrated in the reaction. But it's hard not to. It's human nature.
B
Right. And it's amazing what goes into this. And you think about how many people and how many flights and how many car rides and how many visits and how many people in the cafeteria to the training room, to all that you have these NFL scouts and the salary money and everything that goes into this process. Right. And you're handed as a general manager, this basically a portfolio, if you will, of everything you need to know in this human being.
A
Yeah.
B
And then your analytics department comes in and tells you all the things he can and can't do and all that. And then you've got the, whether it's AIQ or different intellectual testing. And then you have the psychologists. The psychologists and all that. It's amazing to me that we get to this point in the process in like the last month. And the private jet gets, you know.
A
Right.
B
And four or five of the people who are the most influential people go and they have dinner with, they, they meet with family agent, they go and they throw some passes out in the, you know, out in the side field or they put them through a test, they get them on the board and they wind up not necessarily disregarding, but that kind of trumps. Now all that information is used to kind of to shrink the pool, right?
A
Yeah.
B
And so it's down to four or five.
A
They're just grabbing tidbits every place they can.
B
But that, that 24 hour interaction, maybe over two, whether it's a. Come into our facility, we go out to you and your, your college town, like, I don't know, 10 to 20 hours worth of interaction typically winds up trumping a lot of other stuff.
A
Would you trust what the coach said? Because I wouldn't really trust it that much unless the coach was so psychotic about how much he loved the guy.
C
Has to be earned. Like it has to be something that he's told you in the past year.
A
He has a track record with you.
C
Right. Of telling you that like you cannot do it right out of the game and tell him about Jamarcus Russell and all the, the, the Sid at LSU telling about.
B
Are you talking about your own coach or the coach from the school?
A
Oh, the coach from the school I met. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
B
Unless it's negative or like you said, a Track record.
C
Right.
B
The interesting one is your own coach and. Oh, yeah, yeah, that dynamic.
A
But I wouldn't trust my own coach that much at all.
B
Well, you've got to make sure it fits the scheme, or else you're giving them something.
A
I know, but NFL coaches last three to four years, barring, like, a miracle, I would be really interested in the parent interactions because I do think you could learn a little something. My favorite story of all this stuff was, this might be apocryphal, but it was when the Celtics had the Markelle Fultz, Jayson Tatum, when they had the number one pick, and they brought Markelle Fultz to Boston to meet him for the weekend. And he was really shy, but apparently he asked if Boston had Chick Fil A. Like, if they had Chick Fil a franchises in Boston. And they're like, no, it's not. We don't have it in Boston. And he was like, crestfallen. And they were like, oh, that's a red flag. Some sort of red flag that he was like, you don't have Chick Fil A. And I have no idea if the story's true, but it's so good, I almost can't think it'd be made up. But that's the kind of thing that I'd be like, oh, shit, this is.
C
I never did Chick Fil a in Philly then either.
A
It's amazing. On the other hand, I love Chick Fil A, so I can see it from his side, too.
B
Yeah, I see. From both sides.
A
Yeah. But those. That was his big Boston question. So, like, huh, you're judging us now, huh? Are you going to fit here? That's good. All right, so Giants at 5 and 10 is the most fun team in this draft. Arizona's kind of the most pathetic. They're just wearing a cocktail dress at the bar. Like, anybody want three?
B
Anyone?
A
Guys want to have a drink? Free trade down?
B
Anyone? Yeah. And I don't know if you can create your own analogy to it, but. But also, I'm going to stay here. There's also an element with the ownership where you're not. You're. You're out at the bar by yourself, but you're still being controlled by who's making that decision. And I'm. Depends on who you. You listen to. Now. There. There's been a lot just talking to people in the league. There's. There's been talk of maybe ownership wants Jeremiah Love at 3, and.
C
And that's a whole nother factor, man. These owners that come in like this guy I want.
A
And Arizona needs so many things. I don't even know what they need. If I was doing the team needs, I'd be like, ah, players.
C
Have you looked at the Dolphins roster?
A
Well, that's. I mean, that's the saddest situation.
C
It is.
B
It's beyond.
C
I mean, at least they have a lot of picks, so it's interesting. But I mean, it's bad. I mean, bad.
A
Well, it's. It's weird when you trade jaylen waddle for 30 and then you see all the receivers who are going to be available at 30 and their best case scenario is to be maybe as good as Jaylen Waddle.
B
Right? Like a notch below.
A
Yeah.
B
Yeah. They need so much. I don't know that I've ever been this late in the process studying rosters and really diving in and felt more helpless about. About a roster. I actually believe Miami. You mean Miami. I believe in John Eric Sullivan. I believe in Jeff Hoffman. I like, I think they're the right people to stabilize this thing, but it's going to take more than a minute to get this thing turned around. They've got.
A
I think that would be fun to just. You have no pressure because you need so many things. It's like, all right, this is like blank slate time.
B
And we hear bpa, best player available all the time. Like, they literally can just sit there, like, legs up.
A
Yeah.
B
Where's our board? Okay, there it is.
D
Call it in.
A
Who's number three?
B
Yeah, take them.
A
Whereas, like, I think the Chiefs have an incredible amount of pressure. I would say the Giants have the most pressure because you got to nail these picks. But then Chiefs at 9 and they're 42. But they. They had this Mahomes window that I watched it and you watched it with Brady. You watched it as well. Where the draft just ebbed and flowed. The Brady Arc. And there were years, cluster drafts where they just miss drafts.
B
Yep.
A
Doesn't it feel like it cost them Super Bowls?
C
They're going into that. That era of they're going to go. They're going to be very competitive for seven or eight years, but they're not going to win a Super Bowl. That's what it feels like to me.
A
With the. Comes down to the draft.
C
Mahomes will keep them in it.
A
Yeah.
C
But now it's the. The roster turnover. The early Patriots dynasty was a totally different roster than the later Patriots dynasty. Kelsey moving on. Chris Jones is still playing unbelievable level.
B
He's getting older. They've been in that for two years.
A
I Think you made it that last day.
B
We're already there a year before, to be honest with you and Holmes. But you know what I mean. I felt, I, I honestly the years that the last year they went to the super bowl and lost.
A
I think getting overpowered by Philly. Yes.
C
I think about the comp all the time. The one thing that's really interesting is Andy Reid's not as young as Belichick was when they went through the first
A
three and he was terrible last year. I thought they were really poorly coached last year and everyone's afraid to criticize Andy Reid, but they were badly coached.
B
Self assessed that.
A
Yeah.
B
In, in, in, you know, in so many ways. Like he, he's reinvigorated. Like he, he, I think he recognized how many years it was.
C
I mean, I don't know. He's three, four years left coaching.
A
Also. They really. And Belichick did this too. And we've seen teams do this like really explored the capacity of how many iffy guys can we bring in? Guys with baggage. What do you mean? When. Yeah, Belichick. Sometimes these guys can have so much success and these teams can have so much success, they're like, ah, it's fine. It's one misdemeanor.
C
Yeah.
A
You know, or it's like, no, no, he's mostly on time, right?
B
Yep.
A
And I remember who was the. Josh Gordon was a classic Josh Gordon. But Belichick just went in that mode. Like, it'll be fine. We'll bring em in, we'll figure it out. The Chiefs had a lot of those and I think they were probably at capacity.
B
Yep, I think they were.
A
What do you think they needed? 9. Cause the easy one would be like, take the best corner. It's right. It's in the vicinity of where you go.
B
I think they're gonna get a corner. They pick, they pick at nine and 30, right? 29. 29.
A
Yeah.
B
And Miami's at 30 and then Patriots 31. Obviously Seattle. The interesting element is that in this is I think they want they. If they were to get aggressive, which I would, I would not do, but I would understand it would be to move up for a pass rusher like
A
so the, the Reese Bailey leftover guy. Can we get up there and grab him?
B
Conversations have been made that doesn't. There are a lot of conversations have been made, things we never even knew about, you know. And you find out after the fact. It doesn't mean a trade's going to happen. I don't. Moving up from nine to three costs a Lot. And I don't think they're in the.
A
Would you trade 9 and 40 for 3 in this draft? Because I would rather just stay at nine.
C
40.
A
Right.
B
You're going to get a pretty good player.
C
40.
B
Yeah. So you could get a Ruben Bane. Get a Ruben Bane. So there's that edge rusher. They need a. They need a wide receiver they can count on. Right. So there's that element of it. Then there's this Andy Reid. My understanding is Andy Reid's like, we've got to get another offensive lineman. And I don't know where you get that.
A
Which you could take at nine. Yeah.
B
But you can't take it at 29. You can't count on that being there at 29. Now maybe you move up from 29 to 24 and it costs a whole lot less or something like that.
A
So, see, I wonder if they're going to do that with tight end Sadiq at 9. No. moving up to like the low teens or high 20s. If they feel like they have a chance to swoop in and get him.
B
If they love him, they could. Brett Veech is not afraid to pull the trigger.
A
Yeah.
B
But I just the manage managing the element of we need an edge rusher, we need a. We need a wide receiver, we need a replacement for Kelsey. They need a tackle and we need a tackle. And Andy really wants us to get a tackle.
A
Yeah.
B
And there's only seven of them and that might not get to 29. So we need those three things. We're not in the business of giving away picks to go move up.
A
Also tough when you already use draft capital to draft the tackle, but now you've decided that's not the tackle. Right. That's where the Patriots got in that spot a couple of times.
C
I don't know if they decided that, but he's missed 19 games in the last two years. I just don't know how you're going into this. And the right tackle, Jaylen Morris started, I think five or six games at most in a season.
A
I floated this before Chiefs fans murdered me.
B
I would have been pissed on X
C
about, you can't use that pick on a guy who's not going to be a starter. I was like, what are you talking? Like, this guy's probably going to start.
B
Like, I want you to think about how much money these organizations spend. Right. Simmons is so talented at left tackle.
A
I would.
B
I'm not going to make any incision. I would have whatever care team that was necessary area, whatever that would be okay to Be like round the clock. Let's get. Let's make sure this guy has everything he needs because he is the personal protector of the most of the number
C
one Ricky Williams of Texas. Do you remember that essay story that came out where he was like dropping banana peels behind him and someone pick him up and throw them out for
A
him just because that guy Williams, like
C
I always think about that because there's
B
no salary cap on support. Yeah. That guy's your answer.
A
Coaches and support are the two things you could just spend whatever you want on.
B
Right. So I would get that guy. Right.
A
I think it might be over for them. I mean, at least for this window of it.
C
Is that you just being hopeful as
B
a Patriots fan OR Are you two years ago, this is Mahomes coming off
A
now, turns 30, pretty devastating injury. The only reason I mention this is they have the seventh best odds to win the super bowl right now. And that seems crazy to me. Me, they think about all the things that would have to go right for the Super Bowl.
B
That's because. That's because there's a lot of people who would put money on it because it's the Chiefs.
A
And yeah, I get it, but I'm saying. But it's instructive because that's the perception is they're going to flip the switch and be fine this year. And I feel the opposite. I don't think I'd be really surprised. I mean, they're going to have an easier schedule.
B
The unknown obviously is how when Mahomes comes back. Is it.
A
Yeah. What's it going to be like?
B
What's he going to be?
A
Brady wasn't. When he came back in 09, the offense was good, but I really felt like it took him like an extra year to be.
C
There's that famous Belichick clip of like follow through, man. Like follow through.
A
Yeah. Because you get all these guys going around your legs and I don't know, I just felt like it took a while for him not to think about that.
B
It's in your brain. Like when you spend the entire off season recovering and rehabbing and you're worrying about one thing, really, truly, that's the one thing. And then so you get out there and you're protecting that one thing. So it takes a minute to get over it.
C
What was always the knock on the Patriots run was the AFC east, which is garbage every year, and the. The AFC west with Knicks being hurt.
A
Never agreed with that.
C
You know, I know. I hear you. But if you're going off the argument the Chargers, I think, are going to be. I think the Chargers are coming, man. I think they are coming on and you're going to have a tough time with that division.
A
That's the team I think they're the one on the most afraid of in the AFC is the Chargers. I agree, because I just felt like last year they probably would have. But why
B
do we talk about San Francisco's injuries? I swear to you, I've been. I've been doing this for 26 years. I swear to you, I've been talking about the Chargers injuries for a good 18 of those years.
A
Yeah. Some organizations, they don't have an electromagnetic button next to them. Yeah.
C
It's in their head now, but every
B
year it seems like the chart. Oh, they could have. They'll get those guys back from injury and it'll be just fine. So I. I hope. I hope so. It would be great to see. But they're frightening if they stay healthy. Frightening. Yes. Yes.
A
Yeah. They. What are their odds? Yeah. So they have the fifth best odds. That makes sense to me. 15 to 1. Better. Slightly better odds than the Pats. The Giants being 71 is pretty crazy because that seems. I just think those. I think that'll be 30 to 1 by the time the season starts. They're going to have enough talent with the schedule and we just have seen this every year that there's no way that they're not going to be in the mix somehow.
B
This isn't a draft thing. But spending this amount of time, like really diving into these rosters.
A
Yeah.
B
I mean, obviously the Seahawks have what they have. The Rams have what they have. I don't know that there's an organization with a better roster. Let's just say in the afc, top to bottom, roster wise than what Nick Casario has built in Houston. The quarterback element of it and what is really going on there. And there's been speculation and rumors and all like. And you drafted him that high and he was that good as a rookie. You know what I mean? If. If they get him right. And I don't even mean right like playing his, but like 3/4 of what he was playing as a rookie.
A
Yeah. 20. 20 to 1 for them.
B
They're frank.
C
Really.
B
Yeah. But. But that's the biggest if in sports. Yeah. Like their roster, like some teams with needs. It's like the first two are really important needs. The second one, we need to get some depth. The third, you know, or the third, the fourth. And. But for them, like, they. There's. Yes. Their offensive line. Let's continue to build that, but they don't have a lot of, like, they're loaded with deep and wide receiver and
A
running back this year.
B
Their defenses.
C
The Rams are up there, too, man.
B
I mean, no, I said the Rams in Seattle have what they have, but
A
I mean, I was going to talk about the Rams with one of the pressure teams at 13, because the puka thing's a huge story. It's been one of those kicked under the rug.
B
Yeah.
A
No one's talking about a lot of personal shit going on publicly. And then finally went into rehab and this was the best receiver in the league. And we have no idea what we're going to expect from him this year now or what was going on with him or is it going to get better. And they're one of the teams that's just like, we're probably taking a receiver, probably taking receiver, like, so. So blatantly that I almost don't trust it.
B
I don't think they are at. At 13. I think they're going to take a receiver second round. Yeah, there's like war you out with this. Like, attraction is different, right? Like, you know, like one. One person you'd be attracted to. Everyone's beautiful and all that for the
C
blondes and brunettes or.
A
Yeah, yeah.
B
For the Rams.
D
They.
B
With their system specifically, they're not attracted to a lot of the fastest, tallest, all those receivers. They're attracted to one type, and that one type is a physical son of a bitch. Blocking, contact, balance, toughness. And we're going to scheme you up and we'll get you open, and all you got to do is break that first tackle and just ramble, you know, and keep it rolling and block for our. For our run game. And so I can get that in the second round. There's Dijon stribling from Ole Miss. There's Jeremy Bernard from. From. From Alabama there. There's even the third round. So I. I think Les need is the biggest wild card in this first round of the draft with that.
A
They seem like a downsy kind of team to me.
B
I.
A
So here, like, moving up like a couple spots and just swooping in and getting them.
C
They have guys there.
A
I don't know if it's, you know, like they have players.
B
It's one of two things, right?
D
I just.
B
I don't envision Les and Sean sitting back at 13 and we'll take a guard or we'll take a right. It's either we are all in, as all indicators are pointing.
A
Well, they have to be all in. In general, because Stafford's got two years left, max.
B
Right. We're all in. And, like, we really don't, like, if we want to give up 20, 27, we're not that worried about it. We can give up second next year or something like that and go move up and target a guy. Jeremiah Love is fascinating to me. If he starts to fall six. Cleveland. Yeah.
A
I mean, can we stop? Can we. Can we make a rule that he can't go to Cleveland? No, no.
B
I'm saying trading.
A
I'm just saying, like, you don't want him to go. That's my worst case scenario. For him or for most of the guys in the draft?
B
Yeah. Yeah. But, yeah.
A
So you're saying rams switching, going 13 to 6.
B
Yeah, something like that would be. Would be something to look out for,
A
like a little, like, Todd Gurley 2.0 action for that.
B
But then what if it's a total pivot and it's like, yeah, we're going to be here beyond Stafford and let's. We're. We're doing a deal now with Matthew and we're going to keep him happy. But. But we are in love with Ty Simpson and so we're just going to take him at 13. We can move on. Don't ask more questions. We don't have to dwell on it. But I'm just saying. I said it. Yep. Okay. Next.
A
Totally mackerel. Wouldn't you at least trade back to do that?
B
He's going higher than you think.
A
That was one of my, One of the questions I had for you because I was watching one of the channels this morning. They were talking about, is 21 too high to take Ty Simpson for Pittsburgh? And I'm like, what are you guys talking about? He's definitely. The question is, will he be there at 21 for Pittsburgh to take? Because somebody's going to shoot their wide and take him in the top 20 would be my prediction.
B
That's the information I'm getting. And I don't definitively know. I throw the Rams out there because I'm getting information. Definitely. And I know the Rams are at one point really like Ty Simpson. Like, that's, that's firm.
A
His Fando draft position is 29.5 under.
B
Yeah. Yeah. Because even if you're the. Even if you're the Cardinals, you are. You're worried that there's another team or.
A
I don't know.
D
Yeah.
B
Yeah.
A
You can't wait.
B
Yeah.
D
I'm.
B
I'm told that the jets do have, have interest, but I'm Also, I was
A
told that the jets had jets at 16.
B
No, no. At 33. Could take him.
A
I think he's not getting out of the first round. Like, I just don't see it.
B
We're saying the same thing.
A
Yeah, well, plus, you get the extra year. That's the secret sauce to all of this. You get the fifth year if you take him the first round.
B
Yep.
C
You talked about Pittsburgh. Is Aaron Rodgers going to make an appearance and say he's coming back in front of the tens of thousands of draft fans there and then what would their reaction be?
B
No, because Aaron Rodgers won out.
A
He's milking this Aaron Rodgers.
B
How many times are we getting put. I don't even understand why, like, Shefter and those, like, why people are out there. And I know he and those two have a thing and I love. Right. But I don't even understand why there's this, like, you know, you should tell the organization this time. We get. It's every year it's the same thing. It's just the human being. The human being. Aaron Rodgers wants this, and he would like nothing more. Going out there gives closure. And then we're still not talking about it through the second day of the draft.
A
Him and Jerry Jones are the two that, like, how. How can I get attention?
B
Right. This is going to be going on in late March at the draft.
A
Pittsburgh late. Yeah, late June late. No question.
B
Yeah, it'll be going on in Pittsburgh.
C
You can go out in front of all the fans.
B
He wants us all to be like, is Aaron here? You know, Yeah, I mean, I'm here
A
for kind of the sad thing about that is nobody's doing that.
B
Yeah, it worked the first season.
D
That's what I mean.
C
Like, does he come out like, I'm coming back?
A
And all the Pittsburgh fans are like, oh, cool, great. Yeah, great. He's back.
B
Right.
C
You know, like, it's not the response that he thinks it's going to be.
A
Also, I. I said this to you last year. I just think people get amnesia with NFL seasons and we throw ourselves in the draft and free agency, and then it's the summer, and then we get to August and people just don't remember what happened the year before. It's like, we left last season. Be like, yeah, Aaron Rodgers probably not winning more than one playoff round at most with Aaron Rodgers as your QB at age 42.
B
And it's like four months off and everyone's like, could they get him?
C
Yeah, they're Will Howard right now. So I don't know.
A
Well, we finally made it the NBA playoffs. No more tanking discussions at least for a couple days. We get to watch the best players and teams compete every day when the stakes are highest and when I watch, I like to bet on FanDuel. FanDuel is a brand I trust. Easy to build, buy, bet. I know I'll get my winnings instantly. I love looking at the odds there. So this week I still feel like Orlando is being overlooked. They were like plus nine, something like that. I think that's a 5050 series potentially. I also like Denver and Minnesota. I think Minnesota is a really good road team, but you could also get them in Minnesota. Those would be the two I would look at. I'm going to have at least one more set of picks over the weekend. I'm going to put on Twitter, check out my picks in the FanDuel Sportsbook app and on my Twitter feed. Don't forget to boost your potential winnings before you place it. Fanduel Play your game. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. With playoffs around the corner, now's a good time to create a tournament of your own. Compete to see who can predict the best playoff series or put your own basketball skills to the test. And the prize? A crisp Michelob Ultra Plus. They're giving fans a chance to win courtside tickets, prizes and more. Michelob Ultra Superior is worth playing for. Enter now at michelobulture.com courtside Michelob Ultra Courtside 2526 no purchase necessary. Open to US residents 21/plus begins on October 1, 2025 ends on June 30, 2026. Multiple entry periods. See official rules@minclobultra.com courtside for free entry, entry deadlines and prizes and details. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. We've seen some legendary athletes don the number four jersey. Now, I can't name names, but you guys know who I'm talking about. In fact, if you look at my studio, there's a framed picture of one of my favorite number fours. He played hockey. Anyway, you know what else is game changing for PayPal? Pay in four. No fees, no interest, no impact on your credit score. Just the flexibility to pay the way that works for you. And it's available at millions of online stores. Pay in four with PayPal subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com payinfor PayPal Inc. NMLS 910457 so we think so. Rams are off the board. We have no idea what they're going to do. And then the Philly thing is the other weird thing about this draft, why we talked about this before we started with this AJ Brown trade that is apparently happening. And yet, unlike in the NBA, where you say we've agreed to a trade, we can't become official till July 15th. In the NBA, NFL, it's like, well, they can't trade him until June 1st. Cause then they can split his cap. So it would have to happen after June 1st. It's going to happen. Is it happening or is it not happening?
D
Right.
A
And then all the variables that could change this happening, including a wide receiver ending up for either the Patriots or the Eagles that they get excited about. AJ Brown feels like he has leverage and says, well, I need a contract extension if we're going to do this. Like, I'm just glass half empty on
B
this AJ Brown fan speaking or just Patriot fan speaking. Okay. Yeah.
C
Is this trauma from when the Red Sox didn't get a. Ron trauma from
A
when we didn't get Everybody. Alex Bregman four months ago, he's coming for 150 million. Then he wasn't. I just don't. When you get agents involved and just outside factors, I just don't see anything until it happens.
C
If you're someone. A receiver gets hurt or something happens where someone needs. And all of a sudden they're in the market and they're calling Philadelphia.
A
Yeah, but A.J.
B
brown's wife is calling about dance classes in Brookline or something.
A
I mean, he did grow up a Patriot fan. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
C
But it's.
B
No, I. I understand.
C
It's almost two minutes.
A
What if he's in Vegas and Jalen hurts is there, too? And they're like, let's. Let's have dinner. Let's. Two hours later, it's like, hey, we're good. A.J. wants to stay.
B
Right.
C
So the only problem there is how he's like, well, I just traded for Wicks and brought in this other guy and we're going to draft someone and.
A
Yeah. So they're picking 23.
B
Yeah.
A
The Eagles.
B
But. But they're not going to pick 23. That's how he. Roseman, how he's got. He has to move around. And they need an offensive tackle. And what's going to happen is we're going to have. We're going to have Francis Mount, we know, from Miami, and Spencer Fano from. From Utah and somewhere in that top 1012 range. Right. And then it. There's this, like, second wave of. And I think it starts at 17 there could be a team in between. The Ravens could go off and could go guard and Venga Yuane from Penn state. But then 17's Detroit, and everyone knows that they've put in more work than every other organization, these offensive tackles. So the jets are at 16, Tampa's at 15. They're already getting phone calls from organizations like the Steelers, the Eagles, the Texans, the. Who are the other. The Texans, the 49ers, Bears. The Bears are possibilities. So all those. You got this murderer's row of teams that need offensive tackles from 17 to 30. I mean, Miami, if they don't get a tackle at 12, they could use one. So
A
I can't say the Patriots don't need a tackle.
B
No. 31. Sorry, 31. Yeah, absolutely, 31. So 17 to 31. There's about eight teams that need an offensive tackle and there's at that point only five remaining.
A
Yeah.
B
So there's going to be movement there.
A
That's why. Seven and a half over.
B
Yeah.
A
Do you want to hear the Patriots excuses I've talked myself into?
C
Oh, here we go.
A
Since Super Bowl.
B
Yeah.
C
Why they lost.
A
Yeah.
C
Okay.
A
Drake was hurt. Just a fact. I don't know if that's true or not.
B
That's a fact.
A
Well, we think it's true.
B
Yeah.
A
I did see him throwing the mini footballs at the basketball game a couple weeks ago. I don't know if you saw that.
B
You were good.
A
Studied that.
B
I did see that.
A
Actually thought he was snapping it again. Drake was definitely hurt. That's one thing I say. Will Campbell definitely playing on a bum knee. Gutted it out. He was a whipping boy during the playoffs. Now he's a hero to me. He's played through pain. God only knows what kind of.
C
Jared Wilson wasn't great either, by the way. Like, I mean, everyone talks about Campbell, but Jared Wilson.
A
Our whole line got destroyed. Seattle didn't even know which side to go after.
D
Did I tell you about the.
B
Him and Elliot Wolf?
A
Oh, no.
B
We had. We had Elliott Wolf and we did the GM series. Yeah. And. And we had Elliott Wolf and I. I had. I had met him before, but I didn't know him well. And Mensch got in late the night before we got in Indianapolis. All sorts of weather in New England. You don't deal with it out here anymore. Bill and I know. And. And so we hadn't had a chance to really talk about it. We sit down. I asked a couple questions. I'm talking about like, you know, Elliot, what's it like? You know, Ron, you're with your dad and like the bowels of Lambeau Field and you're watching tape is. You know, I'm kind of getting them warmed up. Right. The fluffer.
C
Yeah.
A
A lot of fluffing.
B
Question three goes from Mitch. I can kind of feel him. Like, he's like, Will Campbell.
A
I thought it was early. Oh, you did Tell me this throw, Will Campbell.
B
I saw the short arms on tape. We saw it in the playoffs, and I'm like, he's going for it.
C
I was like, you guys moving?
A
Regard. I didn't say it that way, but I was like, everyone's moving. He would be a great card.
B
He was awesome. He looked back, he goes. He is absolutely our last tackle.
A
Yes.
B
He was great about it. He was great.
A
But I felt like I had to ask. I mean, I've been ripping Campbell.
C
Like, now he's going to be on our show, and I'm not going to say anything.
B
It was the time.
A
The only thing I worry about him is I think he's such an intense, committed, competitive, crazy all about the football team guy. Like, the moment he got drafted, he's like, I am now Drake May's bodyguard for me.
B
I'm die for.
A
And I really wonder mentally how he handled just getting his ass kicked in the playoffs, you know, like, he's probably been successful at that position at every stage of his life dating back to, like, age 4.
B
Yeah. Some of the stories, too, are he's, he's. He's as intense as he can get.
A
Yeah. Like, the team worries about him a little bit. Taking the job home.
B
Yes, taking the job home.
A
So I just. I hope. I hope he got through that because we've certainly seen some Boston athletes over the years that. Yeah.
C
Kind of wilt.
B
Fuck.
A
Yeah, that had that. Well, that. Yeah, that had the bad moment and they were kind of.
B
I can't remember an offensive tackle having that kind of moment, that kind of.
A
Plus now Reuben Bain is the new short arm guy.
B
Yeah. Right.
A
He passed his torch.
B
He's like, here, Ruben, everyone can talk
A
about your arm style.
C
There's an offensive tackle from Utah who I love, and he's got shorter arms. Will Campbell. And everyone's like, what's the deal, dude?
A
How can you.
C
How can you, like, one over the other?
A
But it's different tape. So the other thing I. The other path stance I have now is we just should have lost in Denver and it would have been fine. Like, lose there in a blizzard. They score in the. With five minutes left. We don't have to go to the super bowl get this huge ass kick. No one wins in Denver. It turns out right. It turns out right after the game, Drake May was actually hurt the whole time.
B
Yep.
A
And we're just like, great, okay, great season.
B
Let's move Building.
A
It's like getting that super bowl ass kicking just made it so much worse.
B
Yeah.
A
I really wish it hadn't happened.
B
It's not a good thing.
A
Right. And then you think about all the bad signs for this year and the bad juju that comes with this.
B
Yeah, yeah.
A
The A.J. brown thing. 20, 22 and 23, his first two years when he got traded from Tennessee to Philly. 303 targets in those two years. Almost 3,000 yards and 18 TDs. He's going to be 29 this season. There's pretty good track records with people moving that age and it seems good. Something scares me about it and I don't know. I didn't like the way he looked last year and I'd love to know more about why did he look that way.
B
I agree with that. I also think fresh start, like I think everyone kind of looked that way on the offense for the Eagles last year. There was a lot going on. So I'm hope I would be if
A
like they were just going to work like this sucks. Hate my job. Yeah.
B
With all the reports, I, I think it was just a drain. And obviously he wears his emotions on his sleeve and it's very public about everything that he's dealt with and I think it just. It, it he hit a point.
A
Is there a receiver that doesn't wear their emotions on their sleeves?
B
Very few.
C
Like Fitz was one.
A
That's it. Yeah.
D
Fitz.
A
Yeah, Fitz. This would be part of his hall of Fame case.
B
Yeah, yeah.
A
Like never wears merchandise on his sleeves.
B
First ballot, unlike any other receiver.
A
She literally didn't wear sleeves. He was sleeveless the whole time.
B
I just think about Drake with his development, getting him that. He doesn't have that. He's never had anything close to that.
A
Well, Mina said on NFL Live yesterday, which I was watching, that the Pats had man to man defense, the highest number of any team in the league because you could feel it watching the game because every defense was like, eh, yeah, what are we worried about? Let's just, let's play up on all these guys. And AJ Is like, by all these advanced stats, the best guy against man to man defense. And this would be a game changer. So I get it.
C
The thing was interesting about the ESPN article that came out about the Eagles and Jalen Hurts calling His own plays. And did you read this?
A
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
C
So he was changing all the play. If you're an offense coordinator and you're game planning for a guy, if you have a talent like AJ Brown and you're like we're game planning in this way and all of a sudden your quarterback is changing everything, that's no longer making him the focal point of the offense on certain plays at least. And then you have an opportunity to go to play for Josh McDaniels who's going to like that's what he does.
B
Yes.
A
Well, they'll also play with pace, which is the thing I never understood with the Eagles. I know they, it seemed like this was an actual strategy for them to limit the minutes in the game because of possessions. Because of the math of this, I don't think the Pats think that way at all. So they, they would be more like, oh, we'll put pressure on you and we have AJ out there and you're going to have to be constantly worried and keep your defense on the field.
B
And our quarterback can run if you turn, you know, so hopefully he can run and throw.
A
Unlike the last two games of the season. Yes. I assume he'll be able to roll out and throw again.
B
The scars.
A
I don't remember Will Campbell when we weren't calling the Drake May rolls out and whips a whips the line drive play. I was like, he's fucking hurt. Like you can't tell me he's not hurt at this point.
B
It wasn't even the arc and the
C
velocity were just different.
A
When are the Patriots taking a tight end?
C
They're going to need a tight end. Right.
B
I feel like people are talking 28 of them invited to the combine.
C
They're tight end enough.
B
It'll be some third round guy or maybe four.
A
They signed a blocking tight end they were all excited about.
C
Julian.
A
Julian somebody. Yeah, Julian Bell. Okay, last thing. Second to last thing. So Zona and Cleveland are the trade down teams and you think Saints, Cowboys have 12 and 20 and like getting attention. Jets at 16, Rams at 13. Are there any other trade up teams?
B
I'm trying to sit here. I don't wash. Washington's not going to Cleveland. We talked about.
A
I think that's the list.
B
Yeah, I think that's probably the list
A
I was trying to figure out.
B
When we get to the offensive tackles, I think when we get to like Philly and some of those teams, I could see a move up, quick moves. But not four or five.
C
Yeah, four or five spots.
B
Yeah.
A
I was trying to figure out like somebody is on the board at nine that Jerry gets all excited about because he's 98 years old. Like Jeremiah Love falls to nine. Some credit or down. Somebody down.
C
We can't anticipate.
D
Right.
A
And could there be a. They have 12 and 20.
B
Yes.
A
And the chiefs have nine and 40. Could there be like a. You take our 12 and 20, we'll take back nine, 40 and a third one of those type of trades.
B
Yeah. The problem with that theory is I'm told the only reason that the Cowboys would move up is for an edge rusher. And if there's an edge rusher worth taking there, I think the Chiefs would just take. That would be Reuben Bain.
A
Right.
B
So we do this. We talk about. You talk about the amnesia in the off season. The NFL. There's amnesia every year with the Cowboys in the draft. Yeah. You know that they've had 34, 37 picks. I want to say somewhere in the mid to high 30s of picks in the first three rounds dating back to 2014. And one time they have moved up. That was DeMarcus Lawrence in 2014. Since then that nothing.
A
So it's a lot of chatter about moving up.
B
Jerry's going to go crazy.
A
Well, it worked on me because I was a way to bring the trade up every year.
B
But this year it actually would make sense as long as it doesn't require pick 20. They've got pick I think 92 overall the third round. I could see that. But that's not getting up to three. That's moving up a handful of spots to go get an edge rusher. I just don't know how feasible it is unless you're giving away next year or something, which I think I said it's a fireable offense now.
C
Kind of walked it back, by the way.
B
I haven't.
A
I like fireable offenses. One of my favorite phrases. And would be a good blog name.
B
But.
A
Yes.
B
Yeah.
A
It would be even a good band. Yeah. Going to see fireball offense today in the garden.
B
So a fireable offense is trading a first round pick from next year. That class is going to be. And it's not just the quarterback. So.
A
But has Mitch already started his work on the class of 27 yet?
C
The quarterbacks we know pretty well.
A
Not, not. Not a lot of the other players.
B
I got a mock draft coming out on. Yeah. Way too early. Mock draft for next week.
A
I love those.
B
Taping the show on Monday.
A
I mean it's.
B
You're the problem.
A
But you know. You know is. Is Reviewing the way too early mock drafts. Oh, they do it in like February. No. You guys doing it?
B
Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah, we should do that.
A
That's a couple quarterbacks way up there. Yeah, that's the thing with the draft. So volatile.
B
Thanks, Bill.
D
No, you're right.
A
You're guessing with 20 year old kids club. My son's 18 and he's had five zags just in the last seven months. Like I'm just. These are teenagers and young dudes. Who knows?
B
Yeah. And we saw some zags this fall.
A
Well, a couple quarterbacks or Al or you're out on him.
B
I wasn't in on him last year.
C
Yeah, he was never.
B
Yeah, but he's going to go probably
D
in the third round.
B
There's some teams that like him.
A
Nussmeier.
B
He loves Nussmeier. I like Nussmeyer. Yeah, I think there's a shot. No, you can name Nussmeyer in the third round.
C
The right system doesn't have a ton of starts. He gets hurt. He's small.
A
I don't see it. I didn't see it either.
B
Good.
D
All right.
A
Wild card crazy. I'm looking at the fandom odds. Is it Bailey or Reese? There's no chance anyone else goes to correct.
C
What if it's a trade?
B
Didn't think there was going to be
A
a trade last year. Everyone else's odds are 125 to 1 and up. So it's really. Everybody's decided these are the two. It's definitely number three. Reece is the favorite at plus 130. Bailey's plus 260. Love is plus 330.
B
Say them again.
A
Reese plus 130. Bailey plus 260. Love plus 330, which I thought was fairly enticing.
B
Bailey's assumed to go the second overall pick, so that makes Reese the favorite. The problem with the Arizona pick is that there's a legitimate chance that a team moves up to three and Arizona takes a below market.
A
But if they move up to three, who are they taking?
C
The other.
A
Yeah.
B
Yeah. All right.
A
Four.
B
What's Sonny Styles number for? Four for four? Yeah.
A
Well, love is plus 115, the favorite. Daily's plus 410 and styles is plus 490.
B
That's interesting. I think Styles could be. I'm not saying he will. What I've been told for Tennessee is it's if one of those edge rushers does get there. Let's say Arizona takes Jeremiah Lovett 3. They would take Reese. Let's say if not Sonny Stiles. Robert Sala views it differently than most. That middle linebacker is like that's the equivalent of getting an edge for him. Like that's, you know, Fred Warner. That's there. So that's something to look out for.
A
I can see Styles going for too. I also didn't mind Tennessee's running backs last year, but you'd have to really love love. But it makes me nervous spending all that capital on a QB and a running back. Yeah, right. You're going to do the fourth and the first pick in back to back drafts.
C
The thing about Tennessee's run game, when I started looking at it, Pollard's a pretty good back. I mean thousand yards for like five or six seasons.
A
He was money down the stretch last year.
C
He's good.
A
Yeah. He was like winning Spears, but Spears can't stay healthy.
B
Stay healthy. Yeah.
C
So they had the third fewest carries. You have a rookie quarterback and they had the third fewest carries in the league. They got to get. It doesn't have to be love. They got to get another back that they can. They can get more committed to the ground game. Like they just have to.
B
What I'm interested in is you're sitting there four. You have to take Styles at 4 or you try to bait up a team to get. Come get Jeremiah Love. You know, the Giants putting out the. All of a sudden in the last 72. It's tough to manage all this, man. Because you're having. I'm having conversations with people who are actually making decisions and we're Talking about all 31 other teams and what they could do and what they're hearing, what the scouts are hearing.
A
And they're kind of using you to find out what you're hearing.
B
Totally.
A
Yeah.
B
And I'm using them to find out what they're hearing. And it's a. You know, and so we're kind of. And we're doing the like, you know, the tap dance. Yeah. And then you get off the phone, you get on the next phone call. So there's just a lot of. But I always get worried in the last 72 hours to like 150 hours of why is this. This message is coming. It's resurfacing or this is the first I've heard of this. You know.
A
Right. Is this late developing news or is this a purpose now?
B
The board is set. The decisions are basically made. So. But all of a sudden the Giants, it's like, oh, if love is there, they'll take them. But wouldn't. If love is there, isn't that like, come, come move up. Come move up and get it. What they don't know is that might drive the market up for Tennessee to get a good deal to move out of four. Now Styles is probably going to go seven, so where would that be? Two. But yeah, I would.
A
If I was gonna say I wouldn't mind moving back a couple spots and picking up something. Cause I just need people fifth pick. The odds. Styles is the favorite at plus 185. Tyson's plus 200.
B
I'm told it's not Styles.
C
Yeah. Take the field on that one, love.
A
Plus 380. Caleb Downs plus 550.
B
What about Tyson?
A
Tyson was plus 280.
B
I think Tyson's in play. I mean, I know Tyson's in play, but do they think they can get him at 10? Same thing with downs. Jeremiah loves the wild card.
A
Taking Tyson at 5 would be kind of insane. I think that seems because of the injuries.
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
A
Because of the injuries. I want my right receivers to be in the field.
B
Yeah, yeah. Becomes this balancing act of. Or now we've fallen in love and. But where should. Where do we really truly think we should be able. We should be able to take him versus where can we take him?
A
Why did the Giants need another stud receiver, by the way?
B
Well, Malik neighbors, they don't even know, they're worried about when he's coming back to full strength like the start of the season. There's part of that. You've got a quarterback that needs another weapon. Honestly, it reeks to me. Jordan Tyson feels like if we can get him at 10. Awesome.
A
Okay.
B
But the information, for what it's worth is saying that they might. They could take a swing there.
A
Can I give you my five types of receivers?
B
Yes.
C
Yes.
A
Speaking of Jordan Tyson, the injury prone stud.
B
Yep.
A
Really tough one.
B
Yeah.
A
Really. I have to have a lot of meetings about that high floor ceiling guy, but something leaves you a little cold. Carnell Tate, like, yeah, he's going to be awesome.
B
But it's.
A
Well, why aren't I more excited to take him?
B
Yeah.
C
Well, because he was the second best receiver on his college team.
B
So was jsn. I get it.
C
But that was the same thing on jsn. Was this guy going to be so
A
he's me a little cold.
B
Okay.
A
Physical and traffic wins. Every ball guy. This guy just goes either way.
C
Yeah.
A
Like you just, you know, this was like the. DeAndre Hopkins was a great example of this. The Patriots have had guys like this. Other times. The guy just can't get open yeah.
B
Who's the scheme?
C
Kelvin Benjamin for the Panthers. Wasn't he a big guy?
A
Yeah.
B
Yeah.
A
So Denzel Boston is the version of that this year.
D
I like him.
A
We know the inside, outside guy that everyone calls Twitchy. That's Casey Concepcion. Twitchy's a good one. So the Kyle Williams last year is Twitchy. He's like, twitchy, he'll beat you up. And then slot stud, which is my personal favorite, that's lemon. But I like when it's just like, you know what this guy is? He's an awesome fucking slack guy, and he's just going to get open and he can block. That sounds great. I'll take that guy. Well, then you take how early in the second round?
C
Because that's the second round. There you go.
D
Right?
A
Yeah.
B
Yeah. So you'd love Jeremy Bernard, you'd love Dejon stribling. Omar Cooper Jr. At one point we thought was going to be second, but probably. But it's going to be first. Those are those guys.
A
And then there's the other. There's the sixth type, which is the guy. What's his name? Brazil Jr. Yeah, it's one of those, like, Chris Brown, fall in love and. Or you're getting fired. One of those picks, depending on how high you go.
C
Lottery ticket.
A
Yeah. Yeah. But he just seems. The highlights for him are awesome.
B
Awesome.
A
Yeah. You're like, whoa.
B
And then Trey, Lance's brother is another one like that tall. Four threes. All of it. Yeah.
A
The one guy I would never take is just. This dude's super fast, and we'll figure out the rest. The Pats took that guy 20 times. Yeah, well, the.
B
The Raiders used to take him every year. Then there's the. The Bengals. John Ross.
A
Yep. That was a good one.
B
Was it Devin? What was the name of the Jets? The jets took one.
A
Well, in the 80s, this guy used to go all the time. Yeah, they. They used to. The Raiders and the Jets. Who was the guy the jets had that one time? They took him in the top four.
B
Oh, shoot.
A
Remember him? It was Johnny Lamb Jones.
D
Okay. Yes.
B
Great poll. That is great.
A
It's like, he's really fast. That's about it.
B
Yeah, we've had those.
A
Yeah, there's a lot of those. I think we're getting better at not taking those guys too high. Like. Oh, he runs a 4. 2. Cool.
C
Historically, they don't do. Yeah, they just don't do well.
B
The fastest guy at the combine is like. Is like one. Is like 10% chance of you hitting on where they actually who's your chip
A
on the shoulder receiver this year? Because that guy hits 100% of the time. The guy who's just angry that he's not being mentioned with better guys and produced everywhere he went.
B
It could be Jeremy Bernard, could be the Alabama guy who wasn't even the best receiver by, by everyone's measure at Alabama.
A
Yeah.
B
You had Ryan Williams just disappeared.
A
Could you get him in the second round?
B
Yeah.
A
Bernard. Yeah.
C
Yeah. I don't, I, I just don't get it because all I hear about, it's, it's the same conversation. We have these conversations. We talk about how speed isn't as important as you think when you get down to that, that range. Like Jeremy Bernard, all he does is make plays on tape, man. Like, all he does is make plays. Yeah, he's the best player on that team last year. I mean. And people are like, eh, I don't know.
B
I don't know. He's not dynamic. Yeah, he's. He isn't. But if you fit him right in the right system, he's got a chance to be, you know, an 80 catch a year guy.
A
If I was the wide receiver draft specialist, I would just want guys that got open on the tape that I
C
was watching and caught the ball.
A
Yeah.
C
Get open.
A
Did you get open? Did you catch it when they threw it to you?
B
Sounds so easy.
A
It sounds so easy. Those guys about like, he's amazing in traffic. It's like, cool. No thanks.
B
Antonio Williams is one from Clemson. He just. He gets open. Yep, gets open.
A
Is there a beloved running back for you in the second, third, fourth rounds that you're just. Okay.
C
Maurice Jones, Drew, that's what he's built like. He is a short loaded dance too much like.
B
Yeah. He danced behind a Washington offensive line that wasn't great. And like I get Joe, he just, he. His twitch and his build and his contact balance. Like, I think he's going to be a really good pro.
A
Second round, fourth.
B
Yeah.
A
Oh, wow. Yeah.
B
Yeah.
A
And who's your Tyler Schuck this year? I mean, Cole Pate McShay fucking nailed that last year. Oh yeah. You talked about him on my pod. So you're still with him?
B
Yeah. You might be able to get him late third, early fourth.
A
Man. Are you in on this? No, not at all.
B
Good. And he looks like TJ McShay would
C
sit there all year long and tell you about how important snaps are. We're getting like, yeah. Texts from everyone.
A
This is why I would hire Steve
C
is busting his balls all year long. About, like, how many snaps the McShay. How many snaps? And then we get into the process, and Garrett Nussmeier is the greatest, even though he doesn't have that many snaps. And he pulls this guy out from the fc. The watered down fcs.
A
Yeah.
C
Where all the guys have left for better teams in Bryce Lance, who's the best athlete on the field, is running around like it's backyard football. And this lefty who's playing running back two years ago, was all of a sudden gonna be the next. The next great quarterback. He called him better than Carson Wentz.
B
Right?
C
You said he was a better prospect than Carson Wentz.
B
I think. I think. Yeah. I think he has better traits.
A
Sometimes you can just get a lot of confidence after you hit one of these. Like, this might be your heat check moment. Post shuck.
B
I'm rolling.
A
You're just trying to make the magic happen again.
B
Yep. Dart and shuck last year.
C
Give me Taylor Green.
A
I love shuck. I don't know how many years he's going to play. Cause he takes huge hits and doesn't care.
C
And he doesn't care.
A
He darts the same way.
C
The history's not good.
A
Either Chuck gets up every time, or at least he did last season. But I liked him.
B
He's a tough. He's a tough. I just. I. Yeah.
A
All right. So your plan this week.
B
Yes.
A
We are going to be doing shows all week. We're going to be live on Netflix during the first round Thursday night.
B
Oh, I wanted to run this by you.
A
Yeah.
B
Not. My idea actually came from Rich Eisen. I'm just going to be honest. Instead of the chime from espn.
A
Yeah.
B
When a player's picked.
A
Oh, dude, the Netflix noise.
D
Yes.
A
That's a good idea.
B
Right? You like it?
A
I don't know. We'd have to find out from the guys looking in the control room.
B
They were working on it, but I just wanted.
A
That's a really good idea. Right? Right.
B
Yeah. The NFL draft is.
A
I hear that noise. I feel like I'm about to watch a true crime documentary. But, no, it'd be the next pick.
C
All the stuff that he asked you, were you worried when he said, I want to run something by you on your show?
A
I mean, with McShay, you got to hold on to your seat at all times. Right. Like, yeah, this is where we're going. I've given you a lot. That actually is pretty doable. So we got Thursday night, Friday Night Live. Then we'll do a Saturday, like, wrapping up the whatever.
B
And then and then Sunday we do a the big 32 team. So it lasts the off season. So you can kind of. Yeah, get, get the deep dive in that. And Monday we're in taping the way too early mock draft and then we're out. We're out of the hair.
A
Don't forget to do the redo of last year's mock draft. I think that's a good idea.
D
You got that in the lead up, right?
A
Not now, but no, like just when you need evergreen content for when it's kind of dying in the spring.
B
Yeah, I think it's great.
A
Yeah, I love it. All right, good to see you guys. Thanks for coming out.
C
Thanks.
B
Yeah.
A
Now it's time for today's with the assist segment presented by State Farm on the court. You can't expect everything to go as planned, but that's when your teammates come in because when you know someone's there, you have the confidence to take on whatever comes next. And we've seen some pretty iconic teammate combinations. My favorite was Bird and McHale in the 80s for the Celtics. Three titles. 81, 84, 86. The best forward combo I think we've ever had compliment each other perfectly. Both guys bodies broke down by the late 80s, but we had an incredible ride for them and they really complimented each other perfectly. Life's no different. Unexpected things happen. You want to know someone's there to help. Like how Larry Bird was there to help Kevin McHale. That's where state Farm comes in. They've got easy to use digital tools like the State Farm app and neighborhood State Farm agents. When you want to talk to a real person like a good neighbor, State Farm is there with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. This episode is brought to you by Instagram. As a parent, I know that you're always going to worry about your teens. And while we can't keep them at home in a bubble, there are still ways to make sure they're protected, like Instagram teen accounts. Instagram teen accounts have automatic protections for what your teens see and who can contact them. Plus time management tools and extra controls for parents who prefer them. And Instagram will continue adding built in safety features to help create age appropriate experiences. Learn more about teen accounts and Instagram's ongoing work to protect teens online@instagram.com teenaccounts that's instagram.com teenaccounts this episode is brought to you by Viori, whose lounge collection is a total game changer for fall comfort. Take Their Ponto performance joggers and Coronado hoodie made with Viori's signature dream knit fabric. Super soft, lightweight move with you wherever the day takes you. Plus, they're designed to look great whether you're working out, running errands, or even heading to the office, or, like me, power walking around la. Basically, Viori is an investment in your happiness. For our listeners, they're offering 20% off your first purchase at Vuori.com Simmons V-U-O-R-I.com Simmons exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. With VAY and Lathan, we're in the ring or tailgate set. You saw the Michael Jackson movie last night? We did Rewatchables together. We taped Rewatchables for next week. We did Ghostbusters. And then you left to go see Michael Jackson, a movie that ends in 1989.
D
With bad. Yeah, with bad. With a live performance of Bad in London. I'm gonna try not to spoil as much movie as you guys can. Go out and see the movie for yourself. I encourage you.
A
Well, we know what happened to Michael Jackson.
D
We do, we do. But, you know, there's still some things in there that I think people are gonna be interested in seeing.
A
Like what?
D
The performance of Jafar Jackson in the movie is a revelation. He's phenomenal as Michael Jackson.
A
Is it any relation? I know nothing. I've read nothing. I know nothing.
D
Okay, so Jermaine's son, Jermaine Jackson's son plays Michael Jackson, which in some ways probably some, like, weird cosmic justice for Jermaine Jackson. You know, there wasn't always a.
A
Did he need justice?
D
No, he didn't. But I'm saying is, at times, Jermaine and Michael didn't have, like, the best relationship or whatever. But, you know, they're brothers, so that's what happens in family. But, yeah, so he plays Michael Jackson. He dances like Michael Jackson. He embodies the spirit of Michael Jackson. And honestly, he nails it. When I say he nails it, he nails it to a degree that. Like a Hugh Jackman Wolverine type nailing it. He really nails Michael Jackson in the movie. And it's a shame because the movie is an abomination.
A
Abomination. Yeah. Okay, so why.
D
So I have to. I have to. You guys know me. I always start in love. Colman Domingo, great. Nia Long, great. Jafar Jackson, great. It's not a serious movie. It's not a serious movie. It's a movie about somebody who we all love to pieces. Love Michael Jackson. To pieces. Right. He is almost like a mythical character, not even like a human being. And that's the way the movie treats him. The movie treats him like a mythical character.
A
Don't all of these music hagiographies treat the people that way? Like Elton John, Freddie Mercury? Like, I'm kind of used to this with my biopics for movies.
D
Yeah, to a degree you're not wrong. Which is why I realized something while I was watching Michael. The biopic is dead. The biopic as to me, the biopic and maybe even the biographical documentary as a storytelling tool, I think is gone.
A
I would say both are. I've been saying this for a while. We saw this happen with books. Books used to be they would do biographies about people that people would participate in. And sometimes it'd be pretty hard hitting. Maybe the person would have regretted participating at all. And then eventually that shifted to the autobiography. And almost every time when somebody does the autobiography, it's like, all right, I'm gonna take this with an entire salt shaker of salt, not just one grain. I'm going to just assume this is this person's version. It's gonna be very flattering to them. They're gonna remember the things they wanna remember, not be that candid about the things maybe they don't wanna talk about. And that's just what I'm getting. And in documentaries for a while, they felt pretty. You kind of felt like you were getting all the sides of the stories and something shifted with that in the last 10 years.
D
Yeah, I think the streamers had something to do with it in terms of the amount of people that were doing biopics on themselves while they were still around a. Or the estate that controls the estate that controls it. When you look at this movie, though, there's like, right off the bat, there's a storytelling issue here. The movie has no story. There's no story to the movie.
A
Well, wasn't the famous. The story was that they did it a certain way and the estate made them change everything. Right. I mean, this has been a long time.
D
I want to make sure people understand. I am not complaining about this movie or down on the film because the movie didn't go into some of the more controversial aspects of Michael Jackson's life.
A
Controversial, yeah. So, hey, that's the word we're going to use. Got it.
D
The sexual assault allegations against Michael Jackson.
A
Oh, we can say that as well.
D
Let's say that.
A
Great.
D
I'm not tripping because the movie didn't get into that because I didn't expect it to. It doesn't really interrogate anything about Michael Jackson really, that seriously, like the movie, what you were supposed to come away from is that Michael Jackson is, like, divinely touched, extraordinarily good.
A
I thought that anyway.
D
But what I'm saying is maybe as
A
a musician or a person.
D
No, no, no, as a person. Like, as a person, the movie goes through a great length, great lengths to saint him, to make him look like every time there's a kid, Michael Sasser, the kid, every time. And you see people looking at him as he's doing these good works, and they seem to be, like, arrested by his purity. It's really laid on thick. Now, look, once again, the same magical space that Michael Jackson exists in for a lot of people, he exists in that space for me. And I understand that.
A
That's.
D
People wanna kinda live in that. But, like, you gotta give me something, right? You gotta give me. You gotta give me a real analysis of where the genius and the drive and all of that stuff came from. And the movie just doesn't take any of that seriously.
A
Yeah. All right, so if the estate's like, here's all the stuff that's off limits, but you could make a movie anyway. I'd probably have focused it thriller to when his hair gets caught on fire and he starts getting weird and he becomes so famous that he basically can't do anything. He becomes a recluse. On top of the fact that the hair thing seemed like it was really damaging to him. Like he got burned, he felt like he was disfigured. Led to a lot of the stuff that. His skin changing, all the plastic surgery that seemed to be the tipping point moment. Combined with the victory tour when him and his brothers went out and they bankrupted the Sullivan family, basically. But just that whole era, I just would have centered it there versus stopping in 1989 is insane.
D
Bill.
A
Why was that the stopping point?
D
I think you know why. I mean, if you.
A
But why not stop in, like, 1987, why'd they pick 89?
D
Well, if you go to 1997, you can't not talk about.
A
But I'm saying, why not just stop in 87? Just stop with bad.
D
Just stop before bad. Like they get to him on a world tour. It's like him doing a solo world tour, which was a big deal for him. He wanted to do a solo world tour. So they stopped with him doing the bad world tour. Here's the frustrating thing. Everything that you just talked about, that's all in the movie. All of it's in the movie. His plastic surgery stuff is in the movie. Vitiligo's stuff is in the movie. The burning of the hair is probably the thing that the movie gets the most.
C
Right, Right.
A
Interesting.
D
Because of the reason why he's doing that commercial. Obviously, at the behest of his father, he wants to go back out on tour with his brothers. Like, what it cost him and how him being burned actually starts his relationship with painkillers and stuff like that, which we all know would eventually take his life.
A
So that sounds interesting to me, but it doesn't.
D
It's just on the screen. Yeah, okay. There's nothing. So it's just like, hey, like, I have Vitiligo. I have to take this medicine for it. Like, Michael at one point says he doesn't like his nose. The next thing he comes home and he's had a nose job.
A
Yeah, right.
D
There was a movie called the Jackson Family, An American Dream, a miniseries from the early 90s. Right.
A
I saw it.
D
Okay. That movie treats Michael Jackson as a real fragile, wandering mind of genius in a real serious way. There's a scene of him looking in the mirror, talking about the fact that his face is breaking out, talking to his mother about his nose. And you get the feeling of how displaced he felt in his body at some time.
A
Right.
D
And it's a serious scene. It's like a real scene. Or when Motown 25 is about to happen. And Michael goes, I'll do it with my brothers. I'll perform with my brothers, but I want a solo spot. It's a powerful moment of him, like, stepping away. This movie just can't get to any of that stuff. It's on the screen, but not really interrogated in any way. But I do know what is interrogated. A weird scene with Miles Tiller as the lawyer, right? Where Michael Jackson is Teller in this movie. But, bro, as the fucking. I'm sitting next to Jamie. I'm like. We're watching the scene, and there's this weird scene where all of these guys are sitting around and he fucking talks to Miles Teller's character. And he's like, everybody get out the room. You stay. You're my guy. And then they're in the movie. And I'm like, yo, whoever that guy
A
is, right, he greenlit this movie.
D
He has something to do with this movie. Because this scene doesn't make any fucking sense to be in a movie about Michael Jackson. Now this guy pops in and you got an A list star playing him. It didn't make any sense whatsoever. And then at the end of the movie, I'm looking and it says, ah, look, producer John Branco or whatever his name is, whatever. So like, I don't mean to trash it because there are. I think that people are gonna enjoy it. Cause you're gonna take a trip down memory lane. But it's just, it was just like glossy bullshit.
A
Right. Well, and Antoine Fuqua is the director.
D
Yeah.
A
So when he, he probably signed up for something that he felt like was gonna be a completely different movie and now has to pretend this was the movie he made. Which is clearly not the case.
D
I mean, the movie isn't poorly made. I mean it's got all, it's got
A
like top, it's well done gloss.
D
Well done gloss. But like, I don't know, people are gonna hear this and they're gonna be like, how could Van be this upset about it? Because Van is the one that year after year goes into the theater to watch some of the most ham handed superhero shit that's ever existed. Right. It occurred to me, yeah, I held out a difference or I made a distinction here. This is the MCU ification of a biopic. This is the. We know that we have you, so we don't have to do anything else. Which is the criticism about the MCU that exists now, about superhero movies that exist now.
A
You signed up for this, so it's not our fault.
D
Hey, you're in here to watch action figures fly around and that's all we gotta give you. Earlier on, I think the exciting thing about those movies was that they did not do that. They played around with genre, they took chances, they did other stuff, but it got to the point to where they knew they had us and so we were gonna watch whatever it was. And now there's a lot of people that are disillusioned with them. When I go to see a movie about this type of person at that, this type of impact, you want to come away feeling like, you know, what made that guy tick.
A
So what would be the perfect IP that you would want to sign up for for Michael Jackson? Because for me it would be like a 10 hour documentary that was like warts and all. Like, let's go, let's dive into this. Dude.
D
They're two different movies. One movie would be this same movie, but just about the making of Thriller.
A
Hmm. So you confine it to like 82 to 85. That's it.
D
Just about the making of, by the way.
A
That's what they should have done.
D
Right. Like when I say Just because that
A
takes them off the hook. With everything that happens in the 90s,
D
you can flash back to stuff that happens. We really don't necessarily need the whole Jackson 5 journey. It is one of the most famous journeys that's ever existed in superstardom. But the making of Thriller is very special. It's a special time in music, it's a special time in culture. And it's a special time where this person reaches their zenith, like an athlete. What was the season that Michael Jordan just became the guy that everybody was waiting for Michael Jordan to become? Like, that doesn't happen in culture as much as we think that does.
A
They tried to do that with the Springsteen movie, and it was weird. They picked Nebraska, which I'm a Springsteen guy. Nebraska was a really interesting choice, but it was basically, they told the whole story to set up what happens with Born in the usa, which they then don't go into. So it's like, we assume you already know what happened with Bourne in the usa. This part's more interesting. It's like, hey, you know what would've been really interesting? Born in the usa.
D
Well, with that. And if you go granular, if you get deep into, like, what Michael had to sacrifice, what he was going through, the pressure he was under, you see how well, Child Star, that piece of art.
A
He's in the 70s cocaine era, he's at Studio 54, all of that stuff, everyone's trying to get in with him and just after.
D
And what it means to be, like, the biggest star in the world. That's one. Number two, an interesting story that no one talks about is the just ridiculously amazing story of how Michael Jackson came to control the Beatles catalog.
A
Right?
D
Like, not just high. I'm cool with Paul McCartney. Paul has the idea. Michael is shrewd enough to go and work him on the idea. Just everything that had to happen for him to get that. Because that ends with a deal for him to, like, have to perform in Australia.
A
Right?
D
And him performing in Australia, one of the accusers ended up. So there's a whole bunch of things that happen. I mean, you don't necessarily have to get into that. There's a whole bunch of things that happen with that. And it's one of the. More that is a story about the genius, the business genius and the cultural genius of Michael Jackson.
A
I would also throw in the Lisa Marie Presley wedding as the third movie I wanna see. I just don't know what happened with that. That was one of those. Nobody knew what was going on the entire time we still don't know what happened.
D
We don't. And I remember they came out on MTV and it's like, no one thought this would last. And my dad was like, it hadn't lasted yet.
A
What lasted?
D
Like, what are you talking about? It hadn't lasted yet.
A
I think with some of these things, the biggest things we've ever had, which is basically like Elvis, the Beatles, Michael Jackson, these things come around content wise every few years. It happened with the Beatles a couple years ago when that thing, the behind the scenes Peter Jackson documentary, that was awesome. And it was like, oh, the Beatles are having a moment again. And then it goes. And then six years later, something else will happen. I think that's happening with Michael Jackson now. I know everybody doesn't like the movie, but I think it's gonna be the catalyst to a reexamination of all the stuff he did. Cause what really happens is the new generations who don't. You know, like my son, when my son was like 5, he didn't know backstory of Michael Jackson. He just knew he liked the songs. And the kids get into it. And it's a generational thing that never stops. And I think this goes to a bigger point, which we were talking about when Kanye was here at Sofi a couple weeks ago, about people being able to separate the art from other stuff that may have happened and how you can compart if you like the music, you like the music and you can just put it there and you can kind of push the other stuff this way. And that whole dialogue about whether that's something we should we be that way. Does the heart want what the heart wants?
D
We don't have any choice. I mean, just if we're being honest, when I say we don't have any choice, what I mean is like, I can choose if I want to not to listen to Michael Jackson music or to whatever. What I can't do with him specifically. Not all the artists that have been involved in fuck shit are like this. But with Michael Jackson, it's so tied to the most formative years of my brain that if I see him or I hear the music, my body reflexively does something right.
A
You hear Billie Jean and your legs are uncontrollable.
D
There's nothing you can do. Now you can make this decision to talk about things responsibly and make sure you hold space for victims and make sure you have these conversations with the gravitas and the weight that they deserve. Right? You can do all.
A
Nobody wants to do that when they're on Spotify, on a walk at 2 in the afternoon or working out. And they're just like, fuck it, I'm gonna put my Michael mix.
D
It's true. And so the reality of all of this. And by the way, I just want to say this real quick. And this is, you know, people can feel how. The way. The way I want about this. I worked at TMZ for a very long time, right? Yeah, worked at TMZ for a long time. So the people that I know that have looked into Michael Jackson's various cases, the people that I know have looked into them in a really granular way, like in a really detailed way. Looking at his situation is interesting because I have to be real, real observation. The people that I know, the deeper you get into all of the stuff that happened with him, the more questions you actually have about whether or not he ever was actually guilty of something. The news director at TMZ back in the day wasn't. I'm not talking about. He's not from South Baton Rouge like me. He was a white boy from Orange county, swore up and down. He's like, van, I have all of these documents. He didn't do anything. All of this stuff. And so there is this thing with him in all of his cases. He beat it in court. There's this thing with him to where the more you get into it, people that I know that really have deep knowledge of everything that happened, they look at it and they go. They don't think that he did anything. Now, maybe that's me coping. That could be me coping. But the reality of the situation is that is true from people that I know that have really looked at that.
A
That's how I feel about Mike Frabel. Look, man, the guy just spotted some rest.
D
The other six people, they were there.
A
It's a great resort.
D
Yeah, it's a great resort.
A
Those six, like a relaxation weekend.
D
But to your point, though, the movie, the first thing I did when I got home was put on Michael Jackson shit on YouTube. The first thing I did. But even that, if you do a biopic about Michael Jackson and Jafar Jackson, once again, in the performance and in the dancing, it's great. But if you do a biopic about Michael Jackson, the best parts can't be like making Thriller or performing on stage. Cause if I want that, I could just go to YouTube and watch that. So there has to be other parts of the movie that aren't oriented around the music and around someone doing a Michael Jackson, essentially an impression. And this movie just doesn't have.
A
Well, apparently there's an incredible Elvis documentary right now that somebody spent a lot of time on. Baz Luhrmann, I think. Okay. And it was like behind the scenes Vegas. They found all this footage and it's amazing. And if that had come out in 1989, it felt like it would have been the biggest movie in the world. Now it's 2026. Elvis has been dead for 49 years. I don't know if he has the same hold on people under 50. I think people in their 70s and 80s might care. And I wonder when Michael Jackson's gonna hit that point. I would argue with in the Spotify era where people are just downloading music. He might not hit that point for 40 more years. Where people are just like there might be some five year old right now in a car on the way home from school. They're listening to Thriller and they don't know any better. They don't know anything other than the songs they're listening to.
D
You know, this might be the old man talking, but. And Elvis is a ridiculously important American pop culture figure. It just feels different with Michael Jackson. I don't know.
A
I think that's generational now.
D
It probably is. Everything culturally expires. Everything culturally expires.
A
Cause it's the same thing for like Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Frank Sinatra. There are these people that had these runs. But then as the years pass, there's nobody there to kind of keep the torch going with the flames, you know what I mean?
D
Ain't none of them people got a thriller though.
A
That's true. Elvis was way up there though.
D
Elvis is.
A
I mean, Elvis was the biggest star we had in the world.
D
I know, but for years. But that's how we thought. Then the biggest star came into the room. It's just different.
A
You don't have to sell me. I just. Michael's the biggest. He's the most talented, biggest star I've ever seen in my life.
D
Right.
A
And him doing the Motown 25 was probably the greatest non sports TV moment I've ever had.
D
And so I remember watching that just over and over and all of the videos. Michael has so many different eras. You can't really put it all in one biopic because it's like his life was like. It had like three or four sequels right until he passed on, but.
A
And a lot of analysis too. Like just long conversations with friends in high school about what does Mama say? Mama Sa Ma PSA mean Mama Pusa.
D
Yeah, like that.
A
Whatever that. What did that mean?
B
To me.
D
To me, that genius, like, not just deserves, but it requires special examination.
A
But Ezra did that with Prince, and we're never gonna see that either.
B
Right.
D
But look, once again, I think that we're out of the era of biopics if we think, what are the best biopics? Ray was a great biopic. Right?
A
I actually. I kind of like the Queen one. I watched it again.
D
Okay.
A
And I. And why is it good? Because in the last 25 minutes, it just is the Live Aid show, which I could watch on YouTube, but it was really fun to watch as the movie. Usually it's the performances that make it.
D
Outside of music biopics, you wanna relive the music and you wanna see how people embody the character. But, like, when I think about movies like Malcolm X, like X with Spike Lee, obviously different.
A
Yeah.
D
But that's a guy. That's a cultural deity. To me, the movie does not deify him at all.
A
The Johnny Cash movie doesn't deify him. That one, I think, is one of the best ones. Coal Miner's Daughter is really good.
D
These movies are about people who have
A
genius, but usually they work the best. When it's people who have genius but also have a flaw or two flaws.
D
Have a flaw or have a relationship that doesn't work, or marry the wrong person, fall in love the wrong way or whatever. Something that humanizes Tina Turner.
A
One was good too, right?
D
That one was phenomenal. That is probably.
A
That might be the best one.
D
That's the best music biopic that I can remember. It's phenomenal.
A
But it had a villain.
D
Had a villain. This one has a villain. Joe Jackson is the villain.
A
Yeah, he seems. Joe Jackson seems not a great guy.
D
But even in this movie, it's made by his family. And you can tell, you can feel the conflict in this movie. Yeah, the estate makes the movie. They're telling this story. You can feel them holding back.
A
Well, it was heavily reported. They had to change just about everything about the movie as they're making it.
D
But even in this version, like, ok,
A
you think Miles Tower is like, hey, Miles, heard you have a new movie out. Yeah, well, yeah, I guess. Filmed it a long time ago.
D
I'm just saying, man, if you like, when you do it, commit like, you know, blood on the Dance floor, Show how hard it was. Show the road he had to climb.
A
We agree. But this will be the number one. When it ends up on Amazon or wherever, this will be the number one rental for like five straight weeks.
D
I'm probably gonna see it again. Yeah, I'm probably gonna see it again
A
just because, like, I can't wait till the seventh time you see it when you talk yourself into it.
D
I'm probably gonna see it again. Do you know why? You really know why.
A
Higher learning. No.
D
I missed Michael Jackson. I missed him. Like, you guys. I'm just a regular person, so you guys could get mad. Whatever. I missed Michael Jackson.
A
You missed the genius.
D
I missed him. I had missed him.
A
This was the secret of the Last Dance with Michael Jordan. So it's like, you know what? I really miss this guy.
D
Yep.
A
That's why the biggest documentary right now that's sitting there, if it was done correctly, is the Kobe doc. But it'll never happen, because I think his wife just will never let it happen the way it could happen. But I think that would have the same impact. So many people love Kobe that if they did that correctly, it would be the same thing. You're like, you know, I'm gonna watch that a fifth time. I really miss this guy. Yeah.
D
And more to the point, with Michael Jackson, I missed the version of Michael Jackson that existed before I had to consider any of the other stuff.
A
80s Michael Jackson.
D
I miss that guy. I miss just being able to have. I miss the feeling of unbridled joy that exists with me being dumb and not knowing and, like, just not. I'm. I. That.
A
That's super Hulk Hogan. Another one.
D
Hulk Hogan. Like, I used to. I used to. I used to rip the shirt. Being a Hulk. This is.
A
And you were a Hulkamaniac.
D
I was a Hulkama.
B
Every one of you.
A
You didn't know that. He probably wouldn't have liked you.
D
No, he was a.
A
He would not have liked you.
D
He would not have liked me at all. He would not have liked me. He would have said it. Or he would have liked me. Until I tried to take his daughter out.
A
And then he would have flipped.
D
And then he would have flipped out.
A
Anyway, I see what you mean about. My wife says this all the time. She'll be watching some movie or TV show that she's seen 1700 times, and she always like, I miss my friends. Yeah, Devora's Prada. I miss my friends. I'm gonna hang out with them again. The Michael Jackson experience. Same thing. I'm definitely gonna see it. I won't see it in the theater, but I'm gonna. When it's out on rental, I'm gonna rent it.
D
Nah, I should go see it in the theater.
A
You think?
D
Yeah, go see it in the theater. I like everyone that had any interest in the movie because the reviews have been brutal. I have to keep it real.
A
The reviews have been hilarious.
D
They've been. Yeah.
A
People are furious.
D
Yeah.
A
Because they really hated it.
D
But at the same time, the people that feel super connected to Michael Jackson are going right into defense mode. I'm sure some of those people will be mad at me. I'm encouraging people to go see the movie in the theater because I think I saw it in imax. I think it plays best in the theater because you want to be a part of the concert experiences and things like that. But yeah, not to me, a serious attempt at trying to tell a real story about somebody as consequential and as important as.
A
So what's your Roger Ebert? Four stars. How many do you go?
D
One and a half.
A
One and a half.
D
Okay, one and a half.
A
All right, Van Lathan, good to see you.
D
Peace.
A
All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to McShay and Mensch. Thanks to Van. Thanks to Gahau and Eduardo as well. I'm going to be back on this podcast on Thursday night after the NBA playoff games. We're going to be recording. I think Rob Mahoney is going to join me. Don't forget about Sean Fantasy's newsletter or Jordan Khan's book or Legata or the Rewatchables Kindergarten Cop, which is up, or Ghostbusters, which is coming next Monday. And I will see you on Thursday. He lives with them on the wayside. Must be 21 plus on President in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 on President in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in required bonus issued as non withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration max wager amount. See terms@sportsbook.fandrew.com gaming problem call 1-800-gambler-1-800, my reset call 888-7 or visit ccpg.org chatinconnecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-Hopeny or text hopeny in New York. For Louisiana, call 877-770-7867.
Episode: NBA Panic Rankings, NFL Draft Guesses, and a Michael Jackson Movie Review
Guests: Todd McShay, Steve Muench, Van Lathan
Host: Bill Simmons
Bill Simmons is back with an action-packed episode diving into three main themes:
Timestamps: [10:23–25:53]
Theme: Bill lays out his current panic rankings for NBA playoff teams, mixing harsh criticism, historical perspective, and signature rants.
1. Houston Rockets (#1 Panic Ranking)
2. San Antonio Spurs (#2)
3. Detroit Pistons (#3)
4. Denver Nuggets (#4)
5. New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, and “Bogus” Seeds
Timestamps: [25:54–97:06]
Theme: Simmons, McShay, and Muench offer a rollicking, highly detailed discussion on NFL draft strategy, trade speculation, and prospect evaluation, all delivered with friendly banter and typical draft season paranoia.
Jets Draft Subterfuge, Arvell Reese vs. David Bailey
Draft Betting Madness
Giants Draft Pressure, Trade Scenarios
Running Back Draft Value
Chiefs and AFC Power Structure
Team Needs and Draft Philosophy
Quarterback & Receiver Types, Prospects
Random Quotes
Timestamps: [100:03–125:32]
Theme: Van Lathan and Simmons offer a scathing yet nuanced critique of the new Michael Jackson movie and the death of honest biopics, segueing into larger questions about how modern pop culture treats legacy, myth-making, and warts-and-all storytelling.
Memorable Quotes
| Segment | Timestamp (MM:SS) | |-------------------------------------|-------------------------------------| | NBA Panic Rankings | 10:23 – 25:53 | | NFL Draft: Jets, Giants, Chiefs | 25:54 – 59:11 | | NFL Draft Team Needs/Trade Talk | 59:11 – 97:06 | | Michael Jackson Movie Review | 100:03 – 125:32 |
This episode is for you if:
Favorite Van Lathan burn:
“The movie is an abomination...It's glossy bullshit." (108:58)
Peak Bill Simmons:
“Betting on the draft is like betting on roulette while doing cocaine. It's insane.” (31:13)
Draft-night mantra:
“Somebody’s going to shoot their wide and take him in the top 20 would be my prediction.” (66:12)
With plenty of signature Simmons comedic rants, meaty NFL draft shop talk, and a candid, sometimes emotional meditation on celebrity and cultural memory, this episode offers something for sports obsessives, draft junkies, and pop culture nostalgia fans alike.