
Loading summary
Bill Simmons
This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast, brought to you by Spectrum Business. Fast, reliable Internet means everything for your business and even this podcast. That's why I trust Spectrum Business. They keep companies of all sizes connected with Internet, advanced Wi, Fi, phone, TV, mobile services, plus 24. 7 US based support. Millions of business owners already trust Spectrum business, so visit spectrum.combusiness to learn more. Restrictions apply. Services not available in all areas. Live on Netflix. The Bill Simmons Podcast. Zach Low is here. Trade deadline. I can't believe Giannis got traded. Oh, no. He. It was Cole Anthony.
Zach Lowe
Easy, easy. Don't fool people. This is Netflix. We gotta behave.
Bill Simmons
It was Cole Anthony. Did you think. At what point this week did you think Giannis was actually getting traded? Was there a moment?
Zach Lowe
It was always 50, 50 at best. Every team that was in it, maybe save for just one, was constantly saying, you know, we're kind of skeptical they're really going to move them. We'll put it at 80, 20, 75, 25 that they keep them in. This carries into the summer. I took 80, 20, and I unilaterally went to 50, 50 because the toothpaste is just so far out of the tube that I thought, you know, maybe they'll just surrender to the inevitability of it and get an offer that's good enough. But it looks like with an hour to go and all the reporting that we'll revisit all this in June. So I was never super confident. I was. I was more on high alert than most executives that were in it, I think.
Bill Simmons
So I want to do a segment right now before we get into some of the trades that happen. The I have no idea what the hell you're doing rankings, so it couldn't.
Zach Lowe
Be more exciting for you. Just go right. Go right to the confusing teams.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Because we're. The trade deadline's an hour away. There might be some stuff that happens at noon. The I have no idea what you're doing rankings.
Zach Lowe
Okay.
Bill Simmons
I have Giannis, number one. Giannis, what are you doing? Get out of Dodge. You haven't had a meaningful playoff moment since 2022, Game 7 against the Celtics, when Grant Williams shot your heart out. 2022. How old was your daughter in May 2022?
Zach Lowe
7.
Bill Simmons
2022. What are you doing, Giannis? You just. You took an entire Olympic cycle of playoffs that you've wasted, and you could have changed it this year, and all you had to do was say, I demand a trade. I've run my course.
Zach Lowe
I'm out.
Bill Simmons
Please trade me. I'd like to go. Here's my list of teams I want to be traded by, whatever today's date is. And he kind of half assed, passive aggressive bit and I think he's in a worse spot now. He just lost another post season. He could have been back in time for April. He could have been back in time with a really good team. And I think he had enough leverage with them that he could have bullied them, I think a little bit. And I just feel like we're reenacting KG. The difference is KG. In the mid 2000s, the best that had ever happened to him was the Western finals, right? And that was like the one really fun KG moment. Giannis won the title, but that's yet another reason he should have pushed out. He gave them the title. Now it's time to go and you just wasted another postseason.
Zach Lowe
Or does that decrease your personal urgency because you've achieved your goal? Your family loves Milwaukee. He's spoken quite openly about how leaving would be hard. He's put down roots, he lives right next door to his mom and etc. Etc. Does that decrease his urgency to really hit the nuclear? But I mean, he did. I don't remember exactly what the sham Strania language was, but it's has been telling the Bucks for months that it's time to part ways. I mean, to me that's the same thing as asking for a trade. But yeah, every time he would speak publicly, he would kind of speak out of both sides of his mouth and leave the door open to, hey, maybe I would want to stay here if the team can contend and you know, like, show me that there's an urgency to do it. But. But I do think you raised two questions. Number one, I do think now the does he play the rest of the season becomes a very spicy little subplot for a Bucks team that has all the incentive to tank. They get the worst of their own pick and the Pelicans pick. And they could really use a high draft pick both to rebuild and to take a last ditch effort to Giannis, either via trading that asset or saying, hey, look, here's a bridge to the future of the east, still stinks, etc. And I do want to say I.
Bill Simmons
Think you're good luck with that strategy anyway. Go ahead.
Zach Lowe
Okay. But I do think you're right in these. What is it? I don't. What the hell are you doing? Rankings. Yeah, I do think it's right to put Giannis above the Bucks. There's a lot of frustration around the league with The Bucks today, like, oh, they were never really serious. They wasted our time. They were never super clear with what they wanted or as clear as we wanted to be. They're under no obligation to do what the other teams want them to do. They're under the obligation to get the best deal for Giannis that they can. And if they think kicking it to the summer is, at worst, net neutral for the packages they're going to get, and there's a 4% chance that they can convince him to resign, then they should do that, and they're under no obligation to do anything else. So I agree with you that Giannis should be above his team in these rankings that you're making up.
Bill Simmons
I think 20 years from now, he's really going to regret it because he's going to get traded anyway. Was he going to stay here? What is he staying for? If you were doing the 2 through 15 rankings of all these rosters, they're in the running to have the worst roster. What's interesting is they're only two back from the nine seed and the ten seed. Right? Atlanta and Chicago have 27 losses. Milwaukee is 29. I can't wait to talk about both of those teams, too. But you could. You could make the case. If Giannis came back in two to three weeks and Milwaukee could at least not drown, they could try to tread water without drowning, that maybe he could be a 10 seed. But even if that happens, what's he going to do in four straight playoff rounds with Miles Turner and Ryan Rollins? That's not happening. They had to trade him. And yet they didn't have to trade him because it made more sense for them as a franchise to wait till this summer when more teams can be in it. There's more cap space, there's more options. But it didn't make more sense for him to wait. And I don't. I just don't get it. I. These. He should have talked. If I were him, I would have talked to a bunch of older, retired stars that were in fairly similar situations to this, including kg. I would have called KG and be like, hey, kg, if you had to do that over again, would you have waited until the summer of 2007 to really kind of open the door for a trade? Or would you have done that a year or two sooner? Guess what KG would have said, I would have done that as soon as I knew I had no future with that team. And you're being loyal to, like, who's he being loyal to? One of the owners already sold Jimmy Haslam wasn't there when they won the title. I know he's loyal to the fans, but they're going to love him forever anyway. So if I'm a Milwaukee fan, I think this worked out great. It's like, this is awesome. We're probably going to get a top 10 pick. We get to trade him this summer when we have way more chances to get stuff and he didn't push his way out. So. So in a weird way, it's a win for them, right?
Zach Lowe
And there's some chance that you strike gold in the draft. Giannis is only 31. He. He obviously has these recurring calf issues that are worrisome, but when he's been healthy, he's having arguably the best off, not arguably the best offensive season of his entire career. He's the third best player in the NBA. I don't even think it's disputable right now. And, you know, there's some chance. You move some pieces around, you make a crazy trade, you can talk yourself into.
Bill Simmons
Could, could.
Zach Lowe
Could we be the fifth seed, the fourth seed, and just, just have an honest, good team? That's. It's possible. But I agree. Bucks fans, winners, Bucks. I don't think the packages are going to get worse. Despite the fact that Giannis will be now on an expiring deal and theoretically have more leverage to direct where he wants to go, I think his list will be broad enough and the suitors will be broad enough that the packages won't get worse. So I think the Bucks are kind of semi winners here, too.
Bill Simmons
The ringer loser. I thought we had a chance at Doc Rivers to come back. I thought this was all leading to the Giannis rebuild and then Doc being like, okay, thanks everybody. That's not happening.
Zach Lowe
Well, just don't spend the salary slot. That's all I'll say. Just keep the, Keep the slot open. Keep. Keep the mid level open.
Bill Simmons
One thing with Giannis, I don't feel like teams were. I think teams were knocking on the door. Nobody was using that thing they used in the cop movies. Those, the. The battery ram, whatever that was. The battery ram. Nobody was using that and trying to go through the door. And we had multiple teams that have a chance to win the title who just didn't seem interested. San Antonio, okc, Denver couldn't have figured it out. Cleveland, I think they're good with Mobley and I think there's two things going on with that. One is the age and stuff we've talked about on previous podcasts here about tall guys. With some injury history as they get older and move into their mid-30s. And you watch what's happening with Davis, that's bad. I also think there's some questions about. You have some, some guy who has been on the same team for. In the same city for his entire career. He's a massive star where he's had incredible sway in the organization. Moving to a different organization, probably not as the biggest star. Maybe he's star 1B, maybe he's star 1A to somebody else's 1B. But he'd have to fit into wherever he's going. And I do think teams were a tiny bit worried about that. It's not like a diss on Giannis. It's just like this guy's a megastar and he comes in and if you're a team like San Antonio, it's weirdly a little more risky than you would think it would be on paper. To just be like, now we're adding this person when you don't really need to. When you're San Antonio, your window is really going to be two, three years from now. So I don't know what have you heard about that, about teams being like, huh, this is like a pretty big ad.
Zach Lowe
I mean, I don't think San Antonio was ever really in it in season enough for that to become a talking point. I guess the same for the Rockets. Whose team he would have been his team anyway. He would have been the best player on the team. Cleveland, I guess, you know, Donovan Mitchell is there. I mean Giannis is better than Donovan Mitchell, but it's been Donovan Mitchell's team. I think that's just more about Mobley and the value they hold on Mobley and his age. The one team that you would zero in on for this theoretically is Minnesota with Ant, who probably sees himself as the best player in the league. And kudos to him. He's unbelievable. He stopped seven, eight at worst. But I don't. I get the sense that Minnesota was all in to try to do this. I don't think they were concerned about it. And to mention your battering ram thing, it is interesting how quiet it's been on a couple of fronts. Like Minnesota was going to have to move around players to get first round picks to get Giannis. It was going to be McDaniels plus a bunch of picks. And it's interesting how it never came out that like, oh, they tried to get Randall here or go bear there or wherever. They're like they successfully kept that quiet. I probably some of that stuff was happening and there was never even a peep I didn't hear really a peep about like Miami is shopping Wiggins to get an extra first round pick or Miami's trying to change the protections on the Terry Rozier pick to get an extra first round pick. That that may have been going on. I did not hear that. That is interesting because that's the battering ram for Miami is we we offer you everything and we get another thing because we can only offer two firsts now versus four in the summer. I didn't hear much of that.
Bill Simmons
I just never bought Miami or Golden State. If Giannis wasn't saying you were trading me by Thursday, I just never, never believed in it. There's one team I want to talk about with this, but the Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by FanDuel Forgot to mention this. Last call for football and FanDuel One final Sunday, one last kickoff, final chance to place your bets before the NFL season closes. It's tab because after the super bowl, the season's over and basketball season kicks in, but football is officially done. Last call for football and FanDuel, an official sportsbook partner of Super Bowl 6021 in President select states or 18 in President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Problem? Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. After Zach and I do the trade deadline stuff, Joe House is going to come in. We're going to make a Super bowl pick. Talk about that really quickly. Philly was the team I was thinking about for Giannis, knowing 20 years of Daryl and and how much he loves putting three stars together at all costs. That's been one of his strategies and he loves nothing more than oh, I can get a top five guy. I'm gonna figure out how to do this. And I wonder like Edgecombe would've had to have been in the deal and if, if you and I were the conciliators for Darrell talking about should you do this, should you not do this? I'm not trading everything for Giannis unless I feel like I'm guaranteed a really good chance at winning the title in the next two, three years. They have so much embed, uncertainty, not knowing either way. Right. It's like it's a bonus if he's doing great. I also don't trust that he might not be on the injured list again and I just don't think there's enough certainty with it. I don't know if it's. They had to put Edgecomb in it, all their picks and now it's just Giannis, Embiid and Maxi. On paper, awesome. But if I don't have Embiid, I'm not beating OKC and I'm not beating Denver. So I bet they probably went down the road but ultimately too risky with because of Embiid.
Zach Lowe
Well, okay, so first of all, Paul George probably has to go out in that deal for salary purposes and he just got suspended for 25 games and his contract is something close to an albatross that our teams take on. Second of all, to me the ship has long sailed that every decision that Philadelphia 76ers make, every big team building decision should be on Maxi's timetable and not Embiid's timetable. Now you could argue Giannis at 31 is so good that he fits every timetable. But I don't know that it's worth Edgecomb costing Edgecomb removing that part of the Maxi timetable. And number three, we have breaking news. Bill.
Bill Simmons
What is it?
Zach Lowe
The Los Angeles Clippers are trading center Evitza Zubots to the Indiana Pacers.
Bill Simmons
Oh wow. This was long rumored price tbd.
Zach Lowe
We're still getting a reporting coming in. Zubots is on a great contract. This is the Pacers getting their center for next season. They get Halliburton back. They get a top whatever pick. They are loading up to try to recreate the finals run with a guy who not the shooter Miles Turner is, but a better I think all around player than Miles Turner. Really interesting trade. And look man, Clippers 44 minutes, they're clearly just sellers. They're clearly just done for the year. They don't care about the pick. They owe the Thunder. I think that's the appropriate stance is like that's six years ago. We can't be hamstrung by the embarrassment of potentially giving the Thunder a lottery pick. And we just got to make the best deal for us though. We just got to see what they got in this deal. But Zubots is really, really good. And look out for the Pacers, man, they're sort of sight unseen, out of sight, out of mind like all the one thing is their young guys have not really developed the way you would want but they've had so many injuries. Got to figure out what to do with Matheran. This is a huge get and a reminder, a very important reminder to the Cavs, the Knicks, the Pistons, your Boston Celtics. Well, not so much for them I don't think because they have Tatum that like the east is going to be a different animal next year. Like there's one, one powerhouse that's been absent the whole year and they're already loading up for next year.
Bill Simmons
Our producer Gehau is devastated. Die hard Clipper fan. I really like Zoo. I don't understand the point of trading him when he's on a good contract. I don't really get that at all. Unless there's no way they would get the pacers like top three protected 20, 26 pick. Right. I would be pretty shocked. Would it be something like that?
Zach Lowe
I would be pretty shocked given the quality of this draft and the once in a blue moon you get to have a pick like this when you're a legitimately good team and has have this built in gap year.
Bill Simmons
Well how high? Well, we neither of us know the draft that well yet, but that there's three guys plus I think Wilson and North Carolina would be my fourth. So if you did top five protected for this year and then unprotected in 27 plus a second pick at 29s, I don't know but it's gotta be something like that to get me to trade two bots. I'll tell you this. Zach Lowe.
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
When. When he got scratched yesterday for personal reasons, which has become the new. Oh, what's going on here? I started getting real Celtic ideas.
Zach Lowe
I thought I didn't. I read something that he had like a. Like someone was having a kid. I thought I saw something about parental.
Bill Simmons
Listen when I say parentheses personal. I'm ready for a trade.
Zach Lowe
But James Harden. James Harden had some personal reasons this this week.
Bill Simmons
Well, I thought with the Celtics because they downgraded from Simons to Vucevich from a salary standpoint and they had been trying to trade Simons for Zubots with a pick for a while and that the Clippers didn't want to take on the money. But Vucevic for Zubots actually works under the cap and made more sense and I was wondering. I know they've liked him.
Zach Lowe
First of all, I just want to note that as the spouse of a Balkan, you just nailed both Zubots and Vucevic, which for you is we've made progress and I want to applaud you for the progress and the learning that you've done. The price still has not come in yet. I'm just refreshing Twitter, which is hard to do with this all in real time.
Bill Simmons
But you know, Zach, I'm glad you shouted me out there because obviously everybody knows about my pronunciation Dyslexia and I've butchered names from time to time all over the place. But the Croatians and the Serbians, I've worked hard. And really what you have to remember all the time is just put the itch in the end. It's not an ick, it's an itch.
Zach Lowe
That's why when they Americanize like Gregg Popovich, they all add H's at the end of their names to make that clear to the dumb Americans among us that this is how you say names anyway, Zubots is a Pacer.
Bill Simmons
And can we talk about the Pacer then quick about zubots. Sekam, Halberton, NEM, hard 20, 26 lottery bck, dbd McConnell. That's like send me the eastern odds now for 27. That could be a nice team.
Zach Lowe
Well, we're forgetting like Obie Toppins missed the entire season basically. Smith is still here. The young guys like Jerus Walker and Ben Shepard and Isaiah Jackson haven't made the jumps you'd hope. But like we just went through a top nine that we know, save for Zubots, fits like way adds up to way more than the sum of its parts. Like we know that that's a thing, right? That's a hell of a team. And as. Can I ask you one Clippers question? Yeah.
Bill Simmons
What the hell is going on?
Zach Lowe
We got.
Bill Simmons
Am I ever going to go to another game?
Zach Lowe
We got, we got 42 minutes left. Any universe in which you see Kawhi in play in the next 42 minutes.
Bill Simmons
Pistons, I mean, he could fit.
Zach Lowe
That's the thing about Kawhi. He could fit anywhere. He's, he's, you know, an eight point.
Bill Simmons
With that said, the wow trade is the Pistons, if they did Harris and expiring and two first rounders or whatever. If you're just talking about an atomic bomb on the east, that would be the atomic bomb because he's been one of, I think the five or six best players in the league for the last seven weeks.
Zach Lowe
What if the Sixers traded Paul George and all their draft assets back Kawhi?
Bill Simmons
Oh my God. That's where. If you're, if Ballmer's looking like if there's some big suspension coming up combined with him trying to drive the fan base away, that would be the trade to do it. I, I don't get how you get Zubots from the Clippers. I don't understand that at all.
Zach Lowe
Well, the Pacers control all of their first round picks. All this, all the Siakam picks have been moved, have been like conveyed or Sent or whatever the right.
Bill Simmons
Let me ask you this. Yeah. Who, who is going to be the ninth and 10th playoff teams in the.
Zach Lowe
West now this season?
Bill Simmons
Because right now if you go nine down, Clippers are nine, Portland's 10, Memphis is 11. They just gutted their team. Dallas 12, Utah 13, New Orleans 14 and Sacramento 15. And the Clippers have 23 wins, Utah is 16. Like are we even going to have a ninth and a 10th seed? Is everybody just going to pass? Can you just punt on the plan?
Zach Lowe
Well, Portland, Portland should start the parade plan the parade route. Now they're in like by default. They're going to get in the play in tournament. And this is like this zooms out to. I mean I know you want to talk more about some of these east teams, but one of the winners of this trade deadline for you, for me, for the world at large is the Charlotte Hornets who, who are looking at the Bulls above them. Like I think you're kind of tanking the Hawks. You made some weird Kaminga trade like the, the Hornets are going to pass Chicago and get into the play in and Chicago appears to kind of just be an asset accumulation. Give us all your second round picks and Dillingham and whatever and kind of pulling the, pulling the ripcord on this season. Except it's too late for them to meeting who he tanked this season because all the teams you listed are so far ahead of them in the tank standings that like they. And the teams that they're like closer to Memphis and Dallas, they're also going to start tanking. So the Bulls are I guess tanking with a longer lens because they can't, they can't tank so deeply this season unless they're just like, well look, Dallas won the lottery from the 10th spot last year. Maybe we'll do it too.
Bill Simmons
The Bulls were number two on my. I have no idea what you're doing. I was waiting for it.
Zach Lowe
I was waiting for it.
Bill Simmons
They were number two. They were right behind Yanis. I have no idea what they're doing. I really liked Anthony Simons. I was genuinely sad when the Celtics traded him because I liked him. I thought he was a really nice fit with the. I thought the three guards, Jaylen Brown were the key to the team.
Zach Lowe
Matheran is going to the Clippers, by the way, as part of this deal. Not a shocker. Oh, the lack of any extension talks before the season sort of telegraphed that he was not a fit in how they wanted to play and build. And the Clippers are always even when they're making moves from a position of some weakness.
Bill Simmons
They're always going sideways.
Zach Lowe
Interesting.
Bill Simmons
You know, he's been available for a couple months. I was wondering if he was going to be. I was wondering. He was in that Kobe white, Dasunmu Alvarado, these guys that. It was like, oh, shit, if they end up on a contender, that's going to be nice. But Bulls, I have no idea what they're doing. At one point they had seven or eight guards. They've gone sideways.
Zach Lowe
They still have seven or eight guards.
Bill Simmons
They're under the tax finally. Well, I know the Bulls fans. I know if you're a Bulls fan, you're going to sleep at night going, man, I just hope we can get under the tax and go 40 and 42 again. That would be great.
Zach Lowe
The Last Dance Part 11 the year we got under the tax.
Bill Simmons
At the deadline, they cut the cord with Vuch. They were like, we're finally good. Thanks for everything. Thanks for what? The secret worst trade of this decade. I don't know what they're doing.
Zach Lowe
I don't.
Bill Simmons
The moves together just look like the fucking one of the Zodiac letters. You're just like, what? What is this? What are all these symbols? I don't understand.
Zach Lowe
You got rewatchables on the brain.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. We have to take a break and then I want to do the rest of the I have no idea what you're doing rankings and hopefully we'll have some traits. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by fanduel. I know it's last call for football, but did you know with FanDuel's Touchdown Jackpot you can win a share of $6 million in bonus bets? That's right, opt in. Place an anytime touchdown, score a bet before the game kicks off and if your player scores the first or last touchdown, you'll win your bet plus a share of bonus bets. So if you want to do the Patriots do Drake may do the old QB draw or the scramble can get him in or AJ Barner for the Seahawks who's their tush push guy but also like a short yardage around the goal liner. I'd go with those two. Either way, play your game with FanDuel Official Sportsbook Partner of Super Bowl 60. Must be 21 President Select States or 18 President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in must apply profit boost token on select market prize pool to be split equally among all eligible participants who made the correct first or last TD pick bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus batch which expires 21 days after receipt restrictions apply. See terms@supportsbook.fanduel.com, gAM problem, call 1-800- Gamble or visit rg-help.com call 1-888-78-9777 or visit ccpg.org ChatInElectric this episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, a superior beer that, by the way, is worth playing for. So what do I mean by that? Well, everything's a competition these days. Why couldn't you put some Ultras on the line? Come on, everybody loves a good competition. As my friends and family know, I love competing on everything. How long I can get to the movie theater? How long will it take? Can I get home before everybody? How long can I get to and from a Lakers game? I'm kind of a maniac. I might have to put some Ultras on the line now for this. I'll bet you two ultras I can get home from the Lakers game in less than five stoplights. Whatever you want to do. The stakes are even higher right now with Mick Loeb Ultra's latest challenge. Because again, not just beer on the line, we're talking pride. We're also talking tickets to some of the biggest sporting events in 2026. Enter now at michelobaltra.com ultrainstructor Michelob Ultra Ultra Instructor. No purchase necessary. Open to US residents. 21/ begins on January 30, 2026. Ends on February 22, 2026. See official rules@michelobaltra.com courtside for free entry, entry deadlines and details. All right, we're back. I'm going to have to add the Clippers to the I have no idea what you're doing rankings until we find out what this pick is. We were talking during the break. Maybe it's top five protected 26. And if the Pacers end up moving in the top five and they get it, then maybe it's unprotected 27 and then some sort of swap in anywhere from 28 to 30 or there's got to be. I I really like Zubots. I voted for for all NBA third team last year because I'd like to have a center. I wasn't going to get bullied into this positionless lineups. I thought he was a guy that could go into a war with some of the big guys in the league and also there's a bigger trend here and I think this is what the Pacers were trying to do and I also think this is what the Celtics were thinking about with the Vucevic trade. It seems like everybody wants to get bigger. Everybody's worried about if you're actually going to be in a playoff series about situations where you're going against these double bigs. And you look at the Celtics in the east, every team they'd have to probably beat in a playoff series that they're going to, if they seriously think they could contend, is going to be able to go bigger on them. Right? Like you play the Pistons, they can play Dern and Stewart together. You play the Knicks, they can do Towns and Mitch together. You play Cleveland, they can do Mobley and Allen together. And I just feel like that like the Celtics with the Vucevich flexibility, with Kaeda and with Garza and Tatum when he comes back, at least they have some size. And maybe the Pacers looked at that and said forgot.
Zach Lowe
You forgot Murray Boyles and, and Mamu.
Bill Simmons
Okay, I like Murray Boyles, but maybe the Pacers looked at that and were like, we just gotta get in on this because we have Halberton coming back and we have a chance to contend. I have no idea what you're doing. Rankings number three for me is the Hawks.
Zach Lowe
You want the de? The details are coming in, by the way. We're live. We're live.
Bill Simmons
We're live.
Zach Lowe
Matthew Isaiah Jackson, two first round picks and one second round pick for Zubots and Kobe Brown. We don't, still don't know the details on the big. Can I just say one year. Can I think, can I say one more thing about the Bulls?
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Zach Lowe
As long as we're doing. Here's what I don't get about the Bulls. I understand, like I talked to people around the league today. Like what I asked, I texted, I just like spam texted, what are the Bulls doing? And some people are like, what's obvious, what they're doing. They're accumulating assets. They got I think nine second round picks in these various trades. They got Rob Dillingham, second draft kind of guy for them who will get a chance to play they didn't get in Minnesota. Like and they have massive amounts of cap space the next two summers.
Bill Simmons
I understand that they won't spend.
Zach Lowe
I understand all that. My, my thing is like Dumu is 26 and Kobe White is 25. They're both good. Dumu is like really, really good. And so they traded like mid youngish, mid career guys. They traded an old guy in V. So they traded all kinds of different players. Like what kind of players do they want on their team? Like what, what kind of team do.
Bill Simmons
They Want their worst versions of the same guys they already had?
Zach Lowe
Yeah, they have, they have Giddey and like, what other piece here? Gideon Bouzelis. And like, what other piece here is of major long term interest to me? Like, one of those guards couldn't help your team going forward. What kind of team are you trying to actually make here? I get assets are great. Second rounders are helpful. The Wolves used a bunch of them to get, I would assume, like, I get it. Yeah. But what are you doing with them?
Bill Simmons
Well, I think Bulls fans have been asking this for 11 years. We have the details on the Zubots trade. It's a 26 first round pick. This is from Shams. It's protected 1 to 4 and 10 to 30.
Zach Lowe
So it's the double protection.
Bill Simmons
So if it, if it doesn't fall between 5 and 9, I guess it rolls over to the next year. And then it's also a 29 unprotected. Matheran. I like Isaiah Jackson. I'm in the Isaiah Jackson. I think he's got potential camp. And they got Matheran. It's a pretty good trade. I would. That makes. That trade makes more sense to me. You have a chance to get 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 in the draft to replace the pick you're giving to the Thunder. Right. And now they could try to patch together with Lopez with some small ball lineups. Maybe they're going to try to get one more center. So that makes more sense to me.
Zach Lowe
Say that again. It's 1 to 4 and 10 to 30.
Joe House
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
Basically, if it's 5, 6, 7, 8.
Zach Lowe
Or 9, what does it become if it's 1 to 4?
Bill Simmons
Well, my guess is usually when there's protections like that, it rolls over to 27, which is why 29 is unprotected. Right. So the Pacers are like probably keeping 26, but if we don't keep it, you get 27 or you get it or you get 27 would be more.
Zach Lowe
It's a really interesting trade.
Bill Simmons
It's a good trade.
Zach Lowe
One to four is a, is a win for the Clippers. I think, I'm sure that the two sides negotiated really hard about that exact range of where that should end. Because, you know the way the lottery works. I mean, who knows where Indiana will finish. There's going to be a better than 50, 50 chance that that pick conveys well, I mean, we'll see how the 10th pick comes into it. But like even the worst record guy, the worst team in the league, has like a 48% chance of getting the fifth pick. And then, you know, you go from there.
Bill Simmons
Right.
Zach Lowe
And it's. It's going to be well for the.
Bill Simmons
Pacers, it's a four. We've been saying it's a three person draft and then a drop off basically for most of the college season. But I think that North Carolina kid is a really nice number four.
Zach Lowe
It won't be better. It'll be like 50, 50. I'm doing math on the.
Bill Simmons
Off the top of my head. Yeah. If I'm the Pacers, I want to protect my chance at also getting number four because worst case scenario, I get Wilson from Carolina more. I have know what you're doing. Rankings as we make for more trades. The Kings, they're just blanket in here. I don't know what the Kings are doing. I don't understand why they help save the Cavaliers $50 million to get DeAndre Hunter. Still trying to figure that out.
Zach Lowe
They got off Dennis Schroeder, but they got on DeAndre Hunter and they gave up Keon Ellis in the process. And they got Dennis Schroeder for reasons that nobody understood. And then they got Russell Westbrook for more reasons that nobody understood. Who do you think is most sad? Rank. Rank. The sadness levels if we go 29 minutes and there's no Kings trade. Rank. Who's most Sad? Zach Levine. DeMar DeRozan. Domas. Sabonis.
Bill Simmons
Levine sad at all. He's already opted into next year and then he's like, are the checks clearing?
Zach Lowe
Kings fans are number one, right? Just like what, like how Kings Fans won.
Bill Simmons
Sabonis. 2.
Zach Lowe
Sabonis is definitely 2. Sabonis is like, I just can't even believe this is my life now.
Bill Simmons
Sabonis was probably like, I thought I had a chance maybe to sneak over to Toronto, Portland, somewhere, anywhere. But literally he signed. He signed the extension. My number five. I don't know what you're doing. Rankings is the Magic who have not made a trade yet. And I don't really understand what's going on with that team and the mix of guys they have. And then here's number six, Zach Lowe. Okay, second round picks. Why are the teams so excited about these? It seems like people want them because other teams are dumb enough to trade them. But then when you go through Basketball reference and look through all the guys, take it in the second round. Every year you got a 1 in 10 chance of hitting on somebody. Usually it's a guy that was drafted by a team in the second round and two years later ends up on another team. Like Diabate very rarely is this an awesome pick and it seems like some of these teams fall for it every year and they can't get enough of the second rounders. I don't understand it.
Zach Lowe
Well, it's like the Boston Chicago trade. The Bulls got New Orleans second rounder I think. Right. And so that's going to be the 31st, 32nd, 30 for picking the.
Bill Simmons
I get it with that. But what do I care about how.
Zach Lowe
Even that and the NBA geekery, which is I am a part of obviously, but a lot of it just does. But what a. That's a gem of a trade, gem of an asset. And it turns out to be nothing. And it turned like these second round picks, they're nice to like hoard because if you get a lot of them, you can do it. Minnesota did and just throw six of them at one player and then you look, it's like Denver's 20, 27, that's not very good. And like it's like, you know, I think people fetishize them a little bit, but if you get enough you can weaponize them for like one can you get over the goal line kind of trade like Minnesota made. But can we go back to Orlando?
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Zach Lowe
I don't like they're 25 and 24 and some of their losses have been recently like the funk level hovering over their team is like a defcon to funk level at this point. And obviously they're waiting for Franz to come back and crossing their fingers that Franz who is I think their best player ties everything together and all of a sudden they're the team that everybody thought they would be the day thought they would be. I think that's a little pie in the sky at this point. I think their roster is going to look. Their team could look very different next year. Coach, roster, everything if they don't turn this around. But they're also, and I'm trying to think like what are the teams that lost that feel that feel like they lost because the honest thing got kicked to the summer and what are the teams that won because the honest thing got kicked to the summer? And I want to include Orlando on the latter list because you know that Paolo for Giannis, Paolo and a bunch of stuff for Giannis is like one of my favorite fake trades. But the Magic don't have a bunch of stuff anymore and the bloom is off the rose with Paolo like, like at the beginning of the season if you were not poison pilled by the arcane cap rules, that would have been like, whoa, Milwaukee, that's the best they could have done in a Yanis trade. They got the best player and now it's like, we'd much rather have Evan Mobley and probably a couple other kind of guys than that.
Bill Simmons
Pala's a pretty good prize for Giannis.
Zach Lowe
I. I don't disagree. I just saying it's.
Bill Simmons
How old is he, like, 23, 21?
Zach Lowe
I think after this season, if it ended today, it would be a lot more like, all right, well, they're going to have to sort of figure out how Paolo works and what to do with him. Boys. Before the season, it would have been like an explosion of like A plus plus, trade grades for the Bucks and blah, blah, blah.
Bill Simmons
Right? I think you're right. The only other team I had for the. I have no idea what you're doing, but I actually do have an idea what they're doing because the trade made sense is Kaminga and Buddy Heald for Porzingis. The warriors doing that. It's clear they just had to get Kaminga. They just had to end the situation. That was it. Whatever it took to end the saga. And they're like, can we offer you Porzingis? He's basically hurt every year and has some mystery medical condition and we have no idea how many games he's going to play.
Zach Lowe
Play.
Bill Simmons
And they're like, done. Let's call it in. We don't even need picks.
Zach Lowe
That was my we're going to bed trade on east coast time last night. That trade comes over at like 11:45pm East coast time. I'm like, Kaminga and healed for Porzingis. Might be time for me to turn in. If this, if we've reached this stage of the trade deadline, it might be time for you to like, I'm just like, what ha. What happened here? Does Kaminga fit on the Hawks at all? Do they care if he fits on the Hawks?
Bill Simmons
Why did they want Kaminga?
Zach Lowe
Probably to trade him again at some point? Porzingis like, stretch five. The warriors really need to stretch up. He doesn't play like. And I'm not. It sucks that he doesn't play, but he. You can't pencil in. Porzingis is like, well, this is how he fits in the lineup. And they unlocks X, Y and Z if he doesn't play well.
Bill Simmons
We both liked the ad trade for the Wizards.
Zach Lowe
I think the ad trade is like a carnival. I kind of like, I'm. I'm like on a carnival at. I don't know what's going on. I kind of like it sometimes I'm getting kind of scared like, like someone, someone next to me threw up. I'm not sure what's going on, but I'm kind of having fun.
Bill Simmons
I love it. I even House talked himself into it pretty quickly, but they just didn't give up anything. And whatever they got back, worst case scenario, just be a giant expiring contract which you know, they were throwing into that trade to begin with. The picks are meaningless. They're just going to be end of the round picks and they have this puncher's chance of AD being able to rebuild his trade value for them and either it's good for them because there'll be a playoff team or they can flip him for something meaningful. Like to me an absolute no brainer. And we know why Mahoney did a great piece for the ringer today. Here's why Dallas did this because they just had to move on and they couldn't have around anymore. He was this walking embodiment of the dumbest trade that's ever happened and they just had to move on and you know, change up the guest room after the murder happened and put new furniture in there and call it a day. But I thought the Wizards, it's rare to say. I think the Rizzlers have been run really well the last couple years. They've made smart moves that have made sense to me over and over again. Much like Charlotte, two teams that have been an organizational disaster who now at least seem like their moves are logical. I, I was in on this. I really liked it.
Zach Lowe
Well, and at least when they make up injuries for Anthony Davis so that they can tank the rest of the season and protect their top eight protected pick, that goes the Knicks. If it's outside the top eight, you.
Bill Simmons
Don'T have to make them up.
Zach Lowe
People will believe it. You could say you'd be like Anthony Davis stubbed his toe on the stairs in his house.
Bill Simmons
Longitudinal calf muscles slash something.
Zach Lowe
The elevators in his new apartment building closed faster than expected and swooshed him and he's out for 10 games. You believe anything.
Bill Simmons
And yeah, he has vertigo. Okay, sure.
Zach Lowe
But I don't, I don't remember anything quite like this. Where a team that is so abysmally bad that has not enjoyed any meaningful lottery luck in terms of moving up and lucking into a no brainer generational prospect, I think SAR is really good. I'm not sure he's a generational like you did. Like this is not Cooper flag or you know, Wembanyama. Obviously he's Also not rising and still so bad. Like, the team is so, so bad. Shot themselves in the foot with the McCollum trade. And they just had two, like, I'm just like, AD when healthy is the top 20 player. When healthy is a big. A big caveat.
Bill Simmons
Top 25, 34 next year.
Zach Lowe
And Trey Young, like, love him, hate him, whatever. He's a top 40 player in the NBA probably if we sat down and ranked him. But whatever it is a team that is abysmally bad, nakedly tanking just had two all star level players, like, fall into its lap and decided, like, yeah, I guess, sure.
Bill Simmons
Why?
Zach Lowe
Why not? We'll take Trunk. And it's one of the weirdest situations I can remember. I guess it's fine. They didn't give up very much for it.
Bill Simmons
Didn't give up anything.
Zach Lowe
I don't think it's also a good.
Bill Simmons
Example of why you don't buy out contracts and why you're better off waiting until March before you buy somebody out. Because you never know. You never know when Dallas is going to be like, we just have to trade this guy. We got to move on from this. And all of a sudden you have Anthony Davis on your team. And by the way, the rap on this was that Rich Paul Clutch sports was if you traded for AD you were going to have to give him an extension. There's no extension.
Zach Lowe
I think I heard from other teams that were in, not in, but like, at least in the. Like keep us in the loop on AD that they came off that toward the end because they realized it was.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Zach Lowe
Battle.
Bill Simmons
So we got. We got to talk about. So we like that trade for the Wizards. I don't know if they're.
Zach Lowe
Can we flip it around? Like, what do you think of it for Dallas? You just think it's. We had to do it. Even though the picks are. No, I would have done.
Bill Simmons
I wouldn't have done it. I would have kept them until this summer because it would have been a big, giant expiring contract. I still liked him and Flagged together. We only saw it briefly, but I thought there was real potential there. I just would have kept him. And I get it. I'm not in Dallas. I don't know how grisly and awful it is that situation and maybe it's that bad. But fundamentally, I don't know if he's not playing anyway. You're trying to tank to get a lottery pick. At some point, some point, Flag will have some sort of injury. They'll shut him down. But I don't understand why he's already hurt. This is the best case scenario for you, and then you can decide what to do this summer. Why is this the trade now? It's because you want to get rid of him.
Zach Lowe
Yeah. I think that's the more interesting conversation about this trade is on the one hand, there was like not really a strong. There was maybe not much of a market at all for Anthony Davis injured right now. Like, you can't just bank on him coming in and helping a playoff run. The contract is what it is. The $63 million player option sort of looms over it too. I think that's an underrated little element of this that Washington probably doesn't care about, but other teams would. And you know, like, I don't think the Mavs could have done better than this now. They certainly couldn't have done worse than this in the summer had they waited. I think it's. That's the more interesting angle is like, did they. Did they really need to do this now?
Bill Simmons
I'm not convinced they did not. I mean, what if the Knicks flame out in the playoffs and you could get Towns and something else for Davis? Like, it's just a better asset. Two trades that I loved. You won't be surprised by either of them. Ranking number second, ranking number two on the list. The Knicks getting Alvarado basically for Yabacelle in two seconds. They traded Yabaselli for Terry Alvarado. Perfect playoff guy. I was kind of hoping the Pistons would get him just for. I just thought he would have been great on that team. I do think the bench clearing brawl odds for Knicks Pistons in May has probably dropped to plus 240 with Alvarado.
Zach Lowe
I think, I think the odds if they play are there's a fight. Well, I just. I think we need referees. I think the more interesting thing is the over under on what game in the series it is like, is it. Do we set it at two and a half and like one and a half? Is it. Is it just game one?
Bill Simmons
It would be funny if Adam Silver announced the ground rules for the series where like, look, you might not believe me as I just want you guys to know if punches are thrown, you're out for four games. Like just, just lay out, basically, here's what's at stake. I don't think there's any way these teams don't get into some sort of fight in a playoff series. Alvarado. I think Alvarado's already gotten in a fight with the Pistons, didn't he?
Zach Lowe
I I'd have to go through the Alvarado.
Bill Simmons
Like he'll. He'll go at it with anybody. But I really like them. They needed him. McBride's out for a while and you know, I just. He's a playoff guy. He's a ninth man who's going to come in especially at home and he can swing quarters, which is what you want. But the more important trade you mentioned earlier, Dasunmu going to Minnesota for Dillingham, who's a bust for second round picks, whatever. Tsum was just legitimately good and he's a class. He would be on the. Was he on your Marcus All Stars? I can't remember.
Zach Lowe
No, but he could have been.
Bill Simmons
He could have made a case as a bench guard. Sure. I was hoping the Celtics were going to get him. I don't know why the Bulls wouldn't want him. He is such an upgrade. What do you think the Timberwolves point guard position was for a grade heading into this week? Was it an F minus, an F or a D minus one out of every three games.
Zach Lowe
Bowen, Thailand would make it a C minus.
Bill Simmons
Think how sad that is. Think how sad that sentence was.
Zach Lowe
I mean, I love their starting five as is, which does not have a traditional point guard and I think that works fine. It's. It's less about the archetype of that position, although it can help late in games. And this is a team that's had some late game meltdowns, although they had the opposite against Toronto last night. It's just more about like your bench can't be Nas Reed and a hope and a prayer every single, every single moment of every single game. And they've gone from that to one of the favorites for six man of the year. Good on both ends of the floor. The advanced stats don't love him defensively. I think that's fine and probably flawed because of the theme that he's playing for. I think this is. This was my number one target for Minnesota. My favorite potential guard off the bench. The only caveat.
Bill Simmons
Are you sure he's off the bench?
Zach Lowe
I mean, I would bring him off the bench. I love, like I said, I think they're starting five is great.
Bill Simmons
Well, he might be finishing games for them though.
Zach Lowe
Sure, that's fine. And like sometimes Nas Reid does. Sometimes you just never know who's going to finish games. I love this trade for them. He's sniffing 50, 40, 90 from the field.
Bill Simmons
He 45 from three.
Zach Lowe
He attacks all the space. Like when you put two on the ball against Ant and All those gaps open up. He's a very decisive downhill player. He'll inject some pace into their team. I think he's like an absolute A plus, perfect fit. The only caveat Bill is could they have just resigned Nikhil Alexander Walker and saved themselves a lot of trouble. What is your response to that caveat?
Bill Simmons
I like how this played much more. I think this was outrageous how this worked out for them and I can't believe four second round picks are worth the soon move for a team that's going nowhere anyway. I honestly wish the Celtics had offered their first round pick for him because I think even though they just traded them with those Simons Vucevich, I would have this is exactly the type of guy on a really smart team that can push the pace when you need somebody to defend another point guard. I just think he's a winning player and I was surprised they traded him because as you said he's 26. I understand the Kobe White thing. Kobe White. There's odds he might get 25 million a year from somebody who knows. But this is like the classic sneaky, awesome playoff guy and exactly what they needed because now how many times have you watched them where it seems like man, I just wish they had somebody who knew how to dribble the ball instead of Anthony in some, in some of these crunch types.
Zach Lowe
And he's also capable of like he'll go off for a legit 25 points in a game. Like he's not like well he got a 16 tonight. It's a big game. Like he can, he can pour it in, in, in.
Bill Simmons
He's a he. Check take over a quarter guy. I guarantee I don't know a lot of Bulls fans, there's no way they're psyched about losing him and he's going to go in Minnesota. He fits with Ant. I'll tell you this. Zach Lower because the Minnesota odds were jumping around today for the finals. At one point they were like I don't know 16 to 1 when they seemed like they had a Giannis chance. It was 20 to 1 earlier. Now it's 27 1. I think they have the third best chance to win the title. Like if you OKC is plus 110 on FanDuel Denver 7 to 1 and then the next team is Celtics at 141 and some of these teams spurs 15 1. I would have Minnesota in the three spot. I think they're built to compete in playoff series and they have a guy who thinks he's better than everyone else in the league Whether that's true or not, he thinks that and he plays okc, he plays Denver, he plays whoever and he's like, I'm the best guy in the game. And they have a nice team built around him. They can go bigger, they can go smaller. They have different scoring all over the place. The one thing they were missing was somebody like this guy. So I had to have him third.
Zach Lowe
Look, they've been my dark horse. Like they can win the flat out, win the title team all season. I really like their team as is. It's not perfect. It can get a little ugly and stagnant sometimes. Gobert is a very polarizing player, to say the least.
Bill Simmons
People come, the league swung his way a little bit. How big everything's getting.
Zach Lowe
People poo poo their back to back conference finals appearances a little bit like the matchups broke right and Steph got hurt. Like they're a legit conference finals team. Like they, they lost those two series. I think both of them are 4 to 1. So they haven't acquitted themselves too well at the highest, highest level. But they're a legit, really good team. Aaron Gordon's hamstring stuff is now officially like a major concern for the Nuggets, who I think could absolutely win the championship if they're healthy. That if is coming bigger and bigger and I don't know how odds work. Like I don't know how you factor in the fact that your first three are all Western Conference teams and someone has to win the east and get to the finals. But like to me they can win the title and that's. That was the case before this. Although I was baking in. They will do something for sure at the trade deadline like this with Dillingham going out and this is, this is to me the perfect guy.
Bill Simmons
Well, interesting. Denver's 30, Denver's in the three seed with 19 losses. Houston's four with their less wins, less losses. And then Minnesota's fifth Denver loses. Watson, last night I was watching. Were you watching when that happened? All of a sudden he walked out holding the back of his leg.
Zach Lowe
I did. He did it during a Jokic ridiculous Jokic basket down the Yokich minutes restriction, by the way. The fakest minutes restriction in the history of the NBA. Like I. Why even talk about it if it's, you know what we're going double overtime, you're going to play 40 something minutes. But it happened during a Yoko basket. So I missed it. And then the game went to break and I saw him limping off. I was like oh boy, that's. And it did. It was one of those ones where.
Bill Simmons
That looked like yeah, it was not a good one. Yeah, yeah. Denver loses back to back games against Detroit and the Knicks that were both awesome games and just I felt like late around playoff games but I like the spot Minnesota's in. And then you know, the other one we didn't talk about was Charlotte with basically upgrading from Colin Sexton and Kobe Jones.
Zach Lowe
Kobe White.
Bill Simmons
I'm sorry, Kobe White. My first live podcast, malpractice. Kobe Jones, really important USA soccer player in the mid-90s.
Zach Lowe
That's right.
Bill Simmons
I think, yeah, Kobe White, who I just think is, I think Colin Sexton was fun for that Hornets team, but I think Kobe White's a better player. It makes more sense with them. I don't think they're going to get Lonzo. I thought Alonzo got bought out. I thought that's where he was going. But I don't think that's.
Zach Lowe
Well, they just got S. Jones from the Magic in attack stump and notably in that trade they got two second round picks almost replenishing the three seconds they sent out in the Sexton Kobe White deal. Yeah, Kobe White's just like a better version of Colin Sexton.
Bill Simmons
Right. And a little more thoughtful with teammates and gives them some, some fun lineups. And Charlotte, Charlotte's third in net rating in the last 25 games. 25 games is not a small sample size.
Zach Lowe
Now a couple I, I, I wonder what would happen if you turned the two 50 something point victories into like run of the mill 20 something point victories. But it's still top five and, and they did win those games by 50 points and that they're, they look legit. Like I think it would be super fun if they made the playoffs and I think they, I mean right now if they got into the play in tournament, let's say they leap frog Chicago, I mean they're playing better than Atlanta, they're playing better than Orlando, they're playing better than Miami and hell get them in there. Let's have like a Knicks Hornets first round series. That'd be a blast.
Bill Simmons
What do you think their playing odds are on FanDuel right now to get in the Hornets to be a play in team. Okay, what do you think the odds are? I would just tell you that they were plus 292 weeks ago.
Zach Lowe
Something roughly the like better than even odds.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, they're minus 600 to make the plan now. So Vegas is like we're in, we completely believe and I like them to actually make the. To actually make the actual playoffs, which is plus 138. I think that team's legit.
Zach Lowe
Good.
Bill Simmons
And if Lamelo, who knows, Knock on wood with Lamelo, but if he can stay healthy. So some of the other smaller stuff. As we get closer to deadline, Cleveland shed just a phenomenal amount of luxury tax. Not that we care because it's just somebody's. Somebody's money. But they shed about $100 billion with that Sacramento trade and then somebody taking Lonzo ball. I still don't understand what's worth it for these teams to take a $10 million player and like here are a couple second round picks for your troubles. It's like, oh gee, thanks. I would just rather stick them with the tax bill and get the money back from them. Philly got under the apron. Minnesota was able to get money got under the tax.
Zach Lowe
Philly got under the tax. Phoenix, Denver got under the tax. Toronto got under the tax. Orlando got under the tax. We yay. Good job.
Bill Simmons
Everybody's under the tax so they don't get slaughtered by it. And then the Celtics did not get under the taxi, although it feels like they're creeping toward it. But they did get under the first apron. So this Simon's Vusovich trade, it's really Simons for Vucevich and Blank because there's going to be a second player that they add, probably a guard because they're a guard short right now after losing Simons buyout. Buyout or who knows, maybe that maybe they'll do something next 10 minutes. But they had a crazy win in Houston.
Zach Lowe
I didn't see that game. I but I, I like. They blew him out. They blew them out without who? Whose. Right.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. And Simons who wasn't there anymore. Ron Harper outplayed Kevin Durant and started.
Zach Lowe
Houston. When Houston has rough games, they're pretty rough.
Bill Simmons
I don't like the, I don't like the vibe with them. They're not passing now. Granted. I'm sitting on a TV 1500 miles away. I'm sitting on a couch 1500 miles away. Watching them on TV. I thought Adams was kind of their super sauce superpower and not having him anymore. They just seem beatable every night now. They're fine. They're a 50 win team.
Zach Lowe
Yeah, but without Adams, with Adams playing 20 minutes, you're basically guaranteed a crazy offensive rebounding rate. And without him, you're still a very good offensive rebounding team. But you could have an average offensive rebounding game. And when you lose that element, their offense Just gets a little bit stuck in mud. Turns out they missed Fred Van Vliet, which I thought everyone was just sort of like waving that away at the beginning of the season.
Joe House
Yeah.
Zach Lowe
Out of excitement for Reed, who's been good, and Amen, who's been very good. They need a player like Fred Van Vliet, and he's injured.
Bill Simmons
This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain. Sure, they're both captains, but who's going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help you need, State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn. For small businesses, every hire matters. But the time and resources required to hire right are Limited. Luckily, LinkedIn Hiring Pro is built for that reality. It's your hiring partner, designed to help you hire with confidence by servicing only the right candidates without turning hiring into another full time job. Hiring Pro streamlines the entire process from drafting your job to shortlisting candidates and conducting AI powered screening interviews. Its conversational interface lets you describe what you need in plain language. No recruiter jargon needed. Higher rate the first time post your first job. Get $100 off your job post@LinkedIn.com Simmons that's LinkedIn.com Simmons terms and conditions apply. I have top four best we fucked up admissions.
Zach Lowe
Okay.
Bill Simmons
Number one, Minnesota with Rob Dillingham, Whoops and the heel. So you think that was a fuck up because he was like 20 million bucks and they were way over the.
Zach Lowe
I think they're the same fuck up in that we let him go and brought Nas back because we had to give these young guys a chance and none of it panned out.
Bill Simmons
Makes sense. That's number one. Number two, not a surprise, but Golden State with the Wiseman Kaminga combo. That's the official. It's the funeral where somebody was not coherent for 10 years and you still have to have the funeral. But then it's still kind of like, man, looking back, can't believe how that played out. Atlanta last summer where they had this unbelievable spot. You were doing Bird sounds on your podcast trying to hurt me. Now House and I might have a Eastern Conference long shot bet with them. And weirdly, Alexander Walker was an A plus for a move and every other move was terrible. They trade Luke Canard to the Lakers. So they get out of the Luke Kennard business. They get out of the Porzingis business. They not in the honest business. I don't know if they want to be a play in team or a lottery team. Basically they hit the lottery with this New Orleans trade that Dumars offered them and that was how they won the summer. But then everything else they did, eh.
Zach Lowe
Well, that's the thing. Like among the teams that was not in on Giannis, now that could. That it's a small win for them that this gets kicked to the summer. I don't think the Hawks would trade the number one overall pick if they got it for Giannis just because it's too valuable. This draft is too good. But you know, it's, it's. They. They could get. They could nudge their way back into that discussion if they wanted to now. But yeah, I don't. It's been a bad year for the Hawks and Canard is like, you know, Canard to the Lakers, fine. Like, Canard's one of those guys who like every team's excited to get him. He shoots 40% to 45% from 3 like clockwork. And he can't play in the playoffs down the stretch of games or even in the regular season. And every team eventually is like, yeah, okay, we're moving off you.
Bill Simmons
He does get passed around a lot. I still felt like there was a team for him somewhere at some point in his career. Like I always thought, like, just would have been fun to watch him on Denver being used. Like they used Jamal Murray as the bench backup, something like that, where he's playing up bigs and guys who know how to move and he's just shooting up in threes, but we'll never see it. And then the last team, the Lakers, I don't know if you noticed the shift in what was being handed out to media from a narrative standpoint, but they are now in the. Hey, in case you didn't notice, looking like 60 million in cap space this summer. Cool.
Zach Lowe
Someone said 100 million somewhere and I'm like, that's definitely not right. Because Reeves cap hold is like 27 million by itself. And then you throw in Luca, the cap's only 1 60. You got other salaries. But they got a lot of cap space and they now have three first round picks to trade in the off season.
Bill Simmons
Who's the cap space for? Who are the free agents?
Zach Lowe
It's a great question. It's a great question.
Bill Simmons
Cap space, it's so seductive and Sexy until you look at the 26 free agent list. I just think when you look back at what they did last year and them talking themselves into deandre Ayton, which was hilarious and it was funny watching Laker fans go through the seven stages of deandre Ayton, and now they've reached the final stage, which is what's in the box?
Zach Lowe
What's in the box? A lot of seven references from you.
Bill Simmons
Recently just watched it. But yeah, they're in the what's in the box Stage with Aiden.
Zach Lowe
And then what did. No. Well, I want to. I want your Lakers thoughts on something. Yeah, I feel like the Draymond Lakers buzz, like, just leapt out of the shadows and into the spotlight, like, explicitly this year. Like, there's. I don't know exactly where the reporting came from because it's. It's a word. This. This week of the year. But like others, legitimate interest. He's got this player option. Blah, blah. Like what. What do you actually like? Is there a world where LeBron leaves the Lakers and Draymond goes to the Lakers? Or is it like they're. They're going to be. They want to play together? Like, are we. Is Draymond still this relevant? For lack of a better word?
Bill Simmons
He. Not from a player standpoint. I don't think he's at the same level he used to be. With that said, a Rui for Draymond trade would be really fun. That's actually a trade I was wondering would happen this week. But I kind of liked it for both sides. I liked Rui on the warriors, and I like the idea of Draymond on the Lakers as kind of trying to supercharge them a little bit. I do think the argument that he got into with JJ Redick at some point after the trade on the court during a Lakers game would be phenomenal like that. That might be one of those, like, both guys being held back for real. Not like a hold me back, but like a. I'm fighting you, by the way.
Zach Lowe
Great. Hold me back by your coach, Joe Missoula, this last week when Cassell almost fell over trying to. Trying to hold him back from the refs. Did you see that?
Bill Simmons
I saw that. I asked that. The hold me back of the year was Jeremiah Fears.
Zach Lowe
Oh, he wants it all. No fears, zero fears.
Bill Simmons
There was some fears early on, though, when it was just the two of them. Who was he? Who did he get into with?
Zach Lowe
I can't remember.
Bill Simmons
It was a bigger guy who was mad at him.
Zach Lowe
By the way, to your point about The Pelicans, they trade Alvarado, otherwise they're close for business. Because when you have the worst record in the NBA, you just, you can't, you can't contemplate anything. You can't contemplate any trades. They lost in overtime to the Bucks last night. You've made this point before. It does feel like every single game is close and they lose every single game. It's. It's just uncanny.
Bill Simmons
They're about two with a minute left in 40 straight games.
Zach Lowe
The deadline has passed, by the way. Also, Pelicans related. Astonishing how, how little buzz I heard or even read about Zion Williamson and his numbers are good. When I watch them play, I just. The pop isn't there as consistently as it used to be. And there are still. There are some games where the numbers also aren't there. His free throws are there. That's what he's kind of subsisting on. I'm like, it's.
Bill Simmons
I.
Zach Lowe
The, the numbers are what they are. The eye test for me is like this guy four nights out of five is not the guy that he looked like when he got hurt in that Lakers playing game where he was single handedly eviscerating the Lakers.
Bill Simmons
I thought he would have been a fun warriors fucking trade.
Zach Lowe
Like there were. Did you hear anything? I didn't hear even anything. Like on background talking to executives. Like, I heard this team might take a flyer. His deal's not guaranteed. Like, I heard nothing.
Bill Simmons
I don't think the Pelicans seem like they really wanted to do anything. Do their phones work? As I've said, it's possible. As I've said to you, I would have traded Trey Murphy. I just would have. I. You can't tell me he's untouchable. My team sucks.
Zach Lowe
Yeah, I, I did enjoy. I texted to people this morning that I enjoyed Trey Murphy night before the trade deadline. Like, I gotta put on a show just on the off chance I can get the out of here. Like 44 points. Like did Andy. Is anyone watching? Is anyone watching? Throw the third pick in.
Bill Simmons
He. He was like about to be divorced, 40 year old, going to the bar in the best possible dress, just hoping. Hoping to get attention from anybody.
Zach Lowe
Look at me. Another three.
Bill Simmons
The guy that I thought would be the. Who is your. He's not being mentioned at all. But I wouldn't be shocked if he was traded today guy, because mine was Lou Dort. I mean that would have been the one I would. Wouldn't have been surprised by, but I think people would have been surprised because he's got a team option next year. He just signed with Clutch, and I'm not positive OKC needs him and Caruso and Wallace in a league where scoring is more paramount than ever.
Zach Lowe
I would have said. I would have picked probably someone from Orlando, like Jalen Suggs or somebody like that. Like just somebody.
Bill Simmons
Or Anthony Black.
Zach Lowe
I don't think they would move him, but like some. Something like what Orlando did. What. Like, they just. Just. Just like a change sort of like what Cleveland did. Just like, we got to change up something because what we have is stagnating and like, out of left field comes this. I would have probably said, want somebody there? Or I don't even know Portland. Like, Portland has kind of been radio silent. But I don't. I don't think anybody really wanted Jeremy Grant and I don't know what else. I mean, Drew Holiday, I guess.
Bill Simmons
I don't know. I kind of like Portland's team.
Zach Lowe
I mean, I like watching them. They're locked in now, baby. They're getting into playing.
Bill Simmons
So deadline pass. These next three minutes will be when it's like, whoa, this happened. And we haven't had a whoa, this happened yet. We didn't talk about. You didn't really give your take on the Simon Zusevich trade as a member of the Itch All Stars, did you? Did you feel like he has anything left in the tank? Could you see him in a playoff series? He's never really had a chance to win a playoff series before.
Zach Lowe
He's having his once every three years, good shooting year this year, so maybe that sustains for Boston. I think he's going to perk up a little bit, leaving a moribund Chicago team that had long run its course. And he's got the fact that he was traded for the Franz Wagner pick kind of hanging around his neck all the time there. I will say there have been. He's never been a good defensive player. There have been a lot of nights this season where he's trended toward the washed level of defense. Not on offense. On offense, he's still a plus and all that. Yeah, I need to see him Perk up like 10% on defense to get like, normal, below average instead of like, wow, those feet look like they're really in cement.
Bill Simmons
35, but he's 30.
Zach Lowe
Certified, but also, like, Kate is going to start. That's set in stone. The guy's too good and he's been too good. You do have Garza. Like, I'm not counting on him for a huge lift but it's so helpful to have around in that sense.
Bill Simmons
One of my Boston sports fan threads has Mike Scher on it, who has always been a diehard Vucevich guy. Like every trade deadline do we have a chance to get Vucevich, like just loves him. And then the Celtics finally got him this year and it's like, eh, I wish it was three years ago. I was like, really? You've been calling for this since COVID You wanted this guy. But it might be too late. I really liked how Simons fit in. I would honestly wouldn't be surprised if they signed Simons in the off season on a different deal if they had the ability to get creative in any way to try to get him. I, I like him, like sign and trade, whatever.
Zach Lowe
I liked him too. Like he had added some real pop to their team after a rough start. And I just thought there was like a certain stability in having two of White, Pritchard, Simons, Brown all the time. All the time. Now I think their argument would be Tatum could become one of those four, in which case we don't need Simons as much. But what do you like is this? Pritchard is coming off the bench now. Is that a thing like I like because they lost, Simons are now going to do this. Is that happening?
Bill Simmons
I think they have to stagger Pritchard and White for as much as they possibly can now because they only have two guards. That's why I was hoping for Dasunmu or somebody like that, like somebody that was a little trustworthy with the ball. But now they have to stagger it because that's it and then they'll probably play together in the fourth quarter would be my guess. They're experimenting. They're going to experiment with a bunch of double bigs and things like that. Now what would you tell a Miami fan right now?
Zach Lowe
I would tell a Miami fan that they were all in on Giannis and playing the waiting game the last 24 hours and if I were them, if I were a Miami fan, I'd be a little worried that we had this window where we were in the waiting game. Minnesota traded out of it, Golden State traded out of it and like the Giannis team started falling away and we were maybe like the last real team standing and then Giannis went away and yeah, we can trade four first round picks in the off season and we still have all the stuff we would have traded for him. But now it's going to be a more open. On the one hand it's going to Be more open because some team will lose in the playoffs and. And say, okay, now we got to go all in, and we weren't before. On the other hand, perhaps he has more leverage Giannis to direct where he wants to go because he's on an expiring deal. But I do feel like maybe it was never real. Maybe they were never going to trade him. I don't know. I think Miami was under the impression that there was some chance, maybe. Maybe like the dumb and dumber. You're telling me there's a chance. Chance, but some chance.
Bill Simmons
And this is what they do. It's like, here's 40 cents on the dollar for your best guy. Any interest? Well, I mean, you don't want this. This is why I'm taking Tyler Hero and Khalil Ware, who doesn't play and picks.
Zach Lowe
The Khalil Ware thing with. With the up and down minutes and like we're trying Bam and Wear together. We're going to start Bam and Wear together. That's our team to like now. We never play them together, and sometimes we're just not going to play where at all in the second half. Has not helped.
Bill Simmons
Would you have traded Bam and as many picks and swaps as possible for Giannis? Because I would have.
Zach Lowe
I mean, I think you probably have to, because I love Bam.
Bill Simmons
I know he did.
Zach Lowe
His contract is.
Bill Simmons
Is back when your fingers used to work. You wrote a long Bam piece once.
Zach Lowe
I love Bam. Bam's a winner. I think that was functionally not doable because Bam and Giannis have the same agent. And I. The idea is to play them together, pair them together.
Bill Simmons
Cool. Unfortunately, somebody has to be in the honest trade.
Zach Lowe
That's true.
Bill Simmons
And you have one asset.
Zach Lowe
That is true.
Bill Simmons
I'm trying to think who else is probably kicking themselves right now. I'm still. I don't know. I. I think this is such a weird NBA story. We still don't know for sure how badly he wanted to get traded, and we still don't know for sure what kind of asset he was.
Zach Lowe
Can I just report something? Who? Giannis.
Bill Simmons
I would have thought teams would be in a fistfight trying to get him. Oh, Cam Thomas, your guy. What happened?
Zach Lowe
He got waved. Just moment of silence.
Bill Simmons
They waved.
Zach Lowe
Pick his team in free agency. Baby.
Bill Simmons
Does. Do you. You feel better about your summer dust up or. No?
Zach Lowe
No.
Bill Simmons
Wow. Waved.
Zach Lowe
Most depressing tweet of the day. Chris Haynes. No trades materialized for the Sacramento Kings, and they held on to Demonta Sabonis, Zach Levine, DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk, it's like the laundry list. And Moran. We got to talk about Moran. He's a grizzly. Still. Unless Something happened like, it's 300 grizzly. He's a grizzly. So I had my Kings Moran jersey ready. Like, I had it preordered@NBA.com. nice purple jersey waved.
Bill Simmons
Cam Thomas. So who need. Who needs. I mean, really, this is this generation's Dion Waiters award, potentially. Who needs a heat check guy off the bench the most? Could this be like a Celtic?
Zach Lowe
It's a big grenade. It's a big grenade to throw onto your bench. It's like he's coming in hot. Like, he's coming in hot.
Bill Simmons
So it's a team that's probably struggling for scoring in a bunch of different ways. That bench scoring is a disaster for them. That's not a Detroit team, is it?
Zach Lowe
I don't think they would mess around with. With the messing. Messing around with their chemistry at all. Could Houston just go in there and be like, well, that's.
Bill Simmons
That's a team that does not need a chemistry.
Zach Lowe
Well, that's. That's true.
Bill Simmons
Please.
Zach Lowe
I'm just seeking a team that can use a guy to come in and like, all right, go. Go get hot Break in case of emergency. We don't need to talk more about Cam Thomas. I just wanted to note it.
Bill Simmons
No, I'm trying to because I do think he's. No Cleveland, right?
Zach Lowe
No Minnesota. Had they not. Although I don't think he's Tim Connolly's kind of player. Had they not gotten a boost in the guard, would have. Guard play would have gotten. Needed something.
Bill Simmons
A scale 1 to 10, how shocked you'd be. OKC has picked up Cam Thomas.
Zach Lowe
10.5.
Bill Simmons
10.5.
Zach Lowe
By the way, the McCain trade is a sneaky. I think you talked about it yesterday. That's a sneaky, interesting trade.
Bill Simmons
I love that. I was kind of mad. That was another one I would have loved for the Celtics. McCain was just on the wrong team. I still think he's an asset. He's had a great career. He's won everywhere he's went, and he just randomly ends up on a team with Maxi and Edgecomb together, which is.
Zach Lowe
Probably the best young backorder, you know?
Bill Simmons
Yeah, it's like, fine. I mean, they definitely paid a price for him. They gave up a first and three seconds. As you know, I don't care about seconds, but by NBA standards, that was a lot.
Zach Lowe
Yeah. The Rockets pick this year, I think, is the.
Bill Simmons
Do you think McCain plays for them, though?
Zach Lowe
I don't see why he like, I mean, look, it's, it's a, it's a big integration on a team that's. He's definitely going to play in the regular season just because of how many players they have that are hurt in the playoffs. I could see a scenario where offense is a little stuck in mud. Shay. Shay's on the bench for his rest period. Like, let's throw him in and see if he makes some shots. I mean, they tried AJ Mitchell in the finals last year. AJ Mitchell has obviously ascended into a big part of their team. I could see him getting on the floor.
Bill Simmons
What team did you want to trade for? John Morant in your heart of hearts. Just as for content.
Zach Lowe
As a joke.
Bill Simmons
No, for content. But a trade that actually makes sense.
Zach Lowe
I mean, I do think there's an argument for the Kings to, to do it and I think they would have done it if they could have just done it for dead money and no assets. But that the, the Grizzlies rightfully are like, we're not doing that. We have two years left on his contract. I think he's fine. For a team that has hemorrhaged actual good point guards and sent them flying all over the league, I think it's a fine buy low opportunity for them. They were always my favorite one in terms of like, it's not like they're playing for anything. So if he messes up your chemistry or whatever, it doesn't really matter. I don't know. Do you have one?
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Mine was Golden State.
Joe House
Wow.
Zach Lowe
That would be.
Bill Simmons
Let's get weird.
Zach Lowe
Are you trying to drive Steve Kerr out of coaching? I mean, what.
Bill Simmons
Maybe that would be a piece of it. Well, one thing with Golden State is they don't really have anybody who can beat someone off the dribble other than Steph, who just has five guys guarding him at all times. Unless you set 100 picks for him. And I thought it would have been a really fun random wrinkle to just have John, that team trying to create space and attack. And now I'm a little less. I can't be as shaded over to Steph. I don't know. I would have like, I just felt like Golden State was at the point of their season. I guess they did it with Porzingis where they're just going to do some sort of weird trade and maybe it turned out to be Porzingis. So we had no other trades. That's really it. Cam Thomas was our big news.
Zach Lowe
Well, Zubot's on the live pod.
Bill Simmons
Zubots was Zubot. That was an hour ago.
Zach Lowe
Yeah. Nothing has happened of note trade wise since then.
Bill Simmons
So big picture. Yeah. Minnesota has increased their title. Odd kind of their title Persona. Yep. The Clippers might be out of the playoffs now.
Zach Lowe
I mean if Garland plays and I'm excited to see this Neaterhauser kid. He's been good when he's gotten minutes. If, if he's all right and Garland plays. I mean who's passing them? That's out of the play in right now.
Bill Simmons
Well, you just mentioned if Garland plays and there's playoffs multiple stories about. Yeah. They're trying to figure out can they use different implanted lifts for his sneakers to help his toes. Well, and there's basketball players need toes.
Zach Lowe
There's also the Kawhi. Like at any moment it could be like away from the team for a week and whatever. Like you just never know. But I mean Memphis isn't going to try. Dallas isn't going to try, Utah's not going to try and everyone else is way too far behind.
Bill Simmons
So if you go last 25 games, net rating Miami is 15th at 12 and 13. So 12 and 13 in the last 25 games and did nothing at the trade deadline. I just think this whole Miami thing is weird. I thought, I really thought at least they'd take a swing on Ja. I think it was going to be Sacramento or Miami as the realistic job teams as like the fuck it. They didn't even do that. So I don't know what, what does Miami think is going to happen here?
Zach Lowe
I don't know that they were ever super in on jaw. I just think they're like, I don't blame them. I think they.
Bill Simmons
But I just thought it was a possibility.
Zach Lowe
I think they would probably look at it and say given his availability issues over the last three seasons, is he $30 million better than Davion Mitchell? No. Like we're just not going to do it.
Bill Simmons
I wonder how much Florida and South beach tied into it too. That's at least a conversation in a meeting.
Zach Lowe
Oh, there's no question you would talk about it if you were the them.
Bill Simmons
Do you think Cleveland has more of a chance to win the title now than they did you.
Zach Lowe
You could argue that they are one of the big winners around the league because nobody around them in the east made a meaningful win now. Like a big meaningful win now moment. I mean, Alvarado helps the Knicks, Herder helps the Pistons, you know, Vucovic helps the Celtics. But nobody made the kind of like, oh, oh crap, they're really. They're really going for it kind of move. I. I do think just Harden will play like I did the whole Harlan Garden, Gar Harden, Garland thing on my pod. But it. It's a super interesting trade.
Bill Simmons
I listened to it. You had one really funny moment. You. You were basically like glass half fulling how bad he is in the playoffs. And you said something, and it. You were right. You weren't wrong, but you said something like. And Harden, you know, his playoff history speaks for itself. But every once in a while during a series, he'll have two good games just winning five. Technically true.
Zach Lowe
Just win in five, Win all your.
Bill Simmons
Series in five, two of seven. And maybe in the last game, you rely on somebody else. Maybe that'll work. I mean, I thought that was funny.
Zach Lowe
I do think. I mean, it's a. I just can't. I still can't believe that trade happened in the sense of, like, Cleveland trading for James Harden, Cleveland trading Darius Garland, but just based on availability alone, they are better than they were before. They obviously didn't trust Garland to be available, but.
Bill Simmons
So the Clippers wanted upside, the Cavaliers wanted availability. And if you're putting James Harden on a team that has a chance to win the title, one of the conditions has to be, can somebody else score if there's a big game? And in their case, yes.
Zach Lowe
This is one of the bizarro things of both the Clippers trading for James Harden and the Cavaliers trading for James Harden is. You begin to talk yourself into it by almost turning his weaknesses into a strength that fits your team. Like, he can get us to games six and seven. And then because he's reliable and he's available, he's a volume guy. And then we have this other guy who can get us over the hump when he, you know, does his thing, you know, the thing that he does, I'm like, I don't. What do we do? Like, the logic is warping my brain.
Bill Simmons
Well, remember, I mean, if you ever did a documentary, it'd be about the greatest theoretical team of all time, as you called it, the Brooklyn Nets. For what, two months?
Zach Lowe
They were unstoppable.
Bill Simmons
Harden was off the ball a lot on that team, and it just felt like every three was going in. Remember, there were times when he was just kind of over there, like, ready to shoot, and it was really terrifying. And I wonder if the Cavs can unlock that at all. But I also wonder, like, at his age and how many. How long he's been in the league, he's just so used to Having the ball. Would he be cool with just not having the ball that much at this point of his career?
Zach Lowe
He is the system. Like I mean there were times with Kawhi when he wouldn't have the ball all the time and that's going to be the case now. But there the mid season adjustment aspect of these trades is I think underrated in the euphoria of like analyzing them and thinking about the fit. Like it's a big adjustment to plop him into your team.
Bill Simmons
Last thing on the Zubat straight. Cause I, I guess we're going to wrap it up soon because nothing else happened. Did the, did the Pacers, the more I'm thinking about it, give up too much for Zubots there. That could be the fifth pick in the draft.
Zach Lowe
It's, it's, it's a very good, it's going to be a lot. It's a very good job by the Clippers to get now I think the reporting is it becomes unprotected. But 2031, which is also a pretty valuable asset actually. Yeah, I'd rather have it that than 27.
Bill Simmons
That's a lot of assets. That's a good trade by the Clippers. You're back in it. Cahal.
Zach Lowe
If you're going to do that trade with Zubots on the contract that he's on, you got to get an absolute blue chip asset. And I'll bet they haggled for like top three protection, top six protection. Pacers going back saying that and they settled in a spot. That makes sense. And you know, again I don't know this draft well enough to.
Bill Simmons
Do you like that trade for the Clippers? I kind of like it. Me.
Zach Lowe
Yeah. Yeah.
Bill Simmons
So if they're getting two unprotected picks, if this trade doesn't hit with the in this draft and they're getting 29 and 31 from the Pacers. Unprotected picks, big commodity. You can always trade them and Mathern will fill in some scoring and then they weren't winning the title anyway with.
Zach Lowe
Zubots we'll see what Matheran actually is because they've been very protective of what is left of their cap space post Kawhi contract and maybe Kawhi takes up some of that cap space. I don't know. So I'm not sure that Matheran is going to be like part of their team. That doesn't mean they can't sign and trade him, but we'll see.
Bill Simmons
Well, you know I'm on the record. I like Matheran. I think he's I watched it in person. That's a guy that's not afraid of big moments. And he was going against an OKC set of pit bulls that were as about as frightening as you could find and was still pretty comfortable and having moments against them. I thought, I don't know. I just think that guy could be.
Zach Lowe
In a playoff series. Look, they made the finals last year. They're a game away from the championship, and he was a reliable part of their rotation. Some nights it hit, some nights it didn't. But when it hit, it was like, all right, he just manufactured. You need the manufactured point sometimes. Like, man, we're playing a great defense. We're missing our threes like we did. This guy got us six free throws in three minutes that, like, kept us above water. You need. You need guys like that.
Bill Simmons
All right, so we're on Camp Thomas watch.
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
We are sadly taking a hibernation break for Giannis watch. But I guess that heats up again around the draft, right?
Zach Lowe
That's not too far away.
Bill Simmons
Conceivably they could trade him during the finals that they wanted more likely July 1st. And I think he blew it. I really do. I think he should have force their hand. But who knows? Maybe the sports movie ending will be, he comes back in April, they make the play in, and Giannis goes on a legendary run with Ryan Rollins.
Zach Lowe
And see, you're joking. You're joking. And I don't think that's going to happen. Shouldn't we at least acknowledge that it's kind of cool that part of him wants to be a one team guy now? It's not all of him. And that's what's been frustrating. Right.
Bill Simmons
I don't think he. I think he wanted to get traded. I just don't think he wanted to ask to get traded.
Zach Lowe
I think you're probably right. Okay, I take it back.
Bill Simmons
If he said he wanted to be a one team guy, he would have said, please don't trade me. I want to be a one team guy.
Zach Lowe
He keeps saying things like, you know, I love Milwaukee. If you told me that Milwaukee's going to contend for championships forever, the conversation's over. I want to be here forever, but I don't know if that's the case. I don't know what he wants and he doesn't know what he wants. And that's why he's a buck baby.
Bill Simmons
It's a long relationship. It's like when, when your spouse. When it's like, I thought you told me last week you weren't going to drink wine anymore during the day. Yeah, I did, didn't I? Now I'm having a glass of Chardonnay. What, do you have a problem with that? That's Giannis last week. I thought you told me you wanted to be traded. No, no, I want to stay here. And then a week later, you know what? It would be great to get traded. What can I. I don't know. The Bucks were always pretty adamant that he wasn't as pushy to be traded as was being portrayed. We'll never know the truth.
Zach Lowe
He didn't. Nothing he said in public convinced me that he didn't want to be traded. Let's put it that way.
Bill Simmons
It's a great point.
Zach Lowe
Yeah, I like the wine metaphor. Is fun.
Bill Simmons
Zach Lowe. It was a true pleasure. We should mention on the Zach Lowe Show. Are you taping that tonight or tomorrow?
Zach Lowe
We're going to tape it tonight. I'm going to make some calls for the next few hours and get ready. We're going to tape it tonight and it'll be up.
Bill Simmons
That's popping up late night.
Zach Lowe
Midnight, midnight, 1am Something like that.
Bill Simmons
And you can watch and listen on Spotify. You can watch it on Netflix as well. And then we're. I can't remember when we're starting on Sunday nights, but we're going to be doing Sunday nights together on this podcast.
Zach Lowe
For Super Bowl's Over Go Seahawks.
Bill Simmons
A lot of basketball stuff. Zach Lowe, good to see you. We're going to take a break. Coming back with Joe House talking Super bowl next. Welcome to We Kept the receipts presented by TaxAct, where we look back at our predictions and figure out who deserves a victory lap and who is completely off base. And a lot of years I'm in both camps. Taxact helps you with actual receipts, like the kind that you can use for tax deductions or credits and the ones that help you get your maximum refund every tax season. So we're wrapping up football season right now. And I was really high on the Patriots and on the Broncos and on the Seahawks. But you know who else I was high on? The Las Vegas Raiders. I thought they were going to be a playoff team. I thought the Bears were going to be in the playoffs, too. You win some, you lose some. But I really thought the Patriots were going to be good. Did I pick them to make the big game? I did not. But you win some, you lose some. We kept the receipts that was presented by Taxact. This tax season, make your max refund the one prediction that actually pays off. Visit taxact.com to learn more, conditions apply. See taxact.com for details. All right, Joe House is here doing yeoman's duty. Is that how you pronounce it? Yeomans. Yeomans.
Joe House
Yeomans.
Zach Lowe
Yeomans.
Joe House
Yeomans.
Bill Simmons
Who's yeoman? I don't know. Oh, my God.
Joe House
That gentleman's word.
Bill Simmons
That's like what our buddy Blue Boy called it. Duquesne instead of Duquesne. You're doing yeoman's work. Yeoman's and yeoman's work. I already talked about the Anthony Davis trade with Zach Lowe. You are a Wizards fan. America wants your take. Let's hear it.
Joe House
I give it an A plus from a couple different angles as a Washington fan. And I've seen the reasonable kind of caution that's out there. Here's the problem. There hasn't been anything to root for in terms of Washington basketball and what feels like, feels like a full decade. I mean, really, seriously, 2017. There you go. Those playoffs were the last time that there was like, enthusiasm. Now, always tip of the cap to Russell Westbrook, who dragged a, a sorry ass team into the eight seed in 2021 or whatever the year was, you know, showed beta beal. This is the pathway to being an actual like, you know, let's go down and go after it kind of approach. And they got slaughtered by Philadelphia. That was the only other real sort of interesting competitive basketball team in the last 10 years. So the commitment by this front office, when you are doing the cost benefit analysis, the cost is very, very, very low. You have not bit down on any huge salaries. You haven't bit down on any extensions with anybody. But the city's had enough. We want to see some competitive basketball. There is an enthusiasm. I've been going to games this year, sort of interested to see how the fans are reacting and how the kids themselves are developing. And there really is something here. When they play hard and when they were trying to win games, this little group with CJ McCollum and Chris Middleton, and you could tell when Washington was trying to win games because they would leave Middleton or McCollum or both in the game in the fourth quarter, say, hey, we're trying to win one. Yeah, but it was fun. And you know, the Washington community has been supporting this young group, but it's a very small community. I mean, part of the problem is Ted Leonis is sick of looking up at an empty stadium. Now, this is the, the conundrum for the franchise, right? We've told everybody that we're tanking we are going to tank, but please come to our games. That's a tough one to.
Bill Simmons
Well, you want to be where Charlotte is, where you have some assets, and then all of a sudden you start playing well and there's energy out of nowhere all of a sudden. I didn't see. I told Zach. I didn't see the risk in this. You didn't really give up anything.
Joe House
Right?
Bill Simmons
You have the chance to revamp him as a trade asset. So that was the serious basketball analysis. Now, let's talk about the funny part of this. This is just a classic Wizards trade. You're getting a guy who peaked five years ago, and you're pairing him up with a guy who peaked four years ago. And they both look good together in the little screenshot things. And it's like, look, we got Anthony Davis and. And Tre Young, and some young guys come see us. But it's the. It's the guys who peaked a while ago, which is what you went through with. I mean, how many people do you want to go through here? But this was the Antoine Jameson.
Joe House
That's a long time ago. That's not this era.
Bill Simmons
He's getting Bernard King.
Joe House
Why are we going to the history books? This is getting Mark Price. Well, Mark Price could play. When they acquired him, he got hurt.
Bill Simmons
Who are some of the other classics?
Joe House
I mean, the classic. I'm, I'm, I'm surprised that you've. You've taken this on. Michael Jordan's not a bad example.
Bill Simmons
Michael Jordan may be the best example.
Joe House
He might be the best one. Now. He put himself in because he had an ownership interest in the team, so he acquired himself.
Bill Simmons
Rashard Lewis was another classic.
Joe House
I mean, it's not necessary. I'm just saying different front office for the. Most of the areas that you're describing.
Bill Simmons
You'Re taking advantage of a franchise that is so scarred by the worst trade in the history of the NBA that they just want to erase all evidence that it happened. They're like, we need to get this guy off the team. He's a walking reminder that we traded luka doncic for 10 cents on the dollar, and we just need to get him away. And that's why they did it. I like the gamble because worst case scenario, you didn't lose anything. Best case scenario, he's an expiring contract next year. You didn't have to get an extension. And then who is a player option.
Joe House
But he wants the extension.
Bill Simmons
So you might be able to rehab him into, like, a real trade asset in February or somebody you Want to.
Joe House
Keep same thesis for Trey, by the way. Yeah, like Trey.
Bill Simmons
I think we have a better idea.
Joe House
I think he's motivated, though, to rehabilitate himself, to show what kind of a player he can be as a facilitator.
Bill Simmons
Could he be motivated to make some threes?
Joe House
Davis just needs to play. I'd rather that Trey pass the ball than shoot the three.
Bill Simmons
It's hilarious. You've talked yourself into this already because Davis was, I think, a top five this century. Guys you were the most frustrated by.
Joe House
Well, because he's, he's. You hate guys that don't play every other Davis. I mean, he plays every other day. So. But for the. When we're thinking about it in the context of trying to develop all. All of this boils down to immense pressure on these ping pong balls, you know, shaken out in this lottery.
Bill Simmons
So you have two guys that aren't going to play again this year, probably. You have a young team that's probably going to lose. You have a real chance to get one of the top four picks. Put them with Sar. Put them with Trey Johnson. And then we, like George, we talked about him on the trade value pod. And then you have AD and Trey as the wild cards and you have trade bait if you want to, like, go all in and get somebody. I didn't mind it. I think the Wizards have been smart for a couple years now. I like everything they've done. I can't even ding them on the Trey Johnson pick because I don't know who else they should have taken. You could have said like, oh, we should take it, Cedric Coward. But they wouldn't have done that last year.
Joe House
Yeah, nobody had anybody.
Bill Simmons
Nobody had Cedric Howard going fifth. Like, you can't do the redraft and be like, oh, they blew it.
Joe House
I know they didn't blow it.
Bill Simmons
The Nets might have blown it. That was the pick after them. Okay, Super Bowl. So Drake may seems fine. I feel a lot better than I did on Sunday's podcast with the Cubs.
Joe House
Knocking on wood for it to stay that way.
Bill Simmons
I'm incredibly confident. I feel great. I love that everybody loves Seattle. I love it. I've made a lot of the cases the last couple weeks about their defense is really good. I don't think it's great. I don't think they can overpower us. It's not one of those defenses that's going to get 10 sacks. I think their offensive line has some. Some holes, like one of the guards, Milton Williams and Barmar just pushing up the middle. I think they can do some damage. I think our defense can match their defense. And then the wild card will be Drake May out playing Sam Darnold. Pat's plus four and a half line hasn't budged.
Joe House
Yep.
Bill Simmons
And I've liked it the whole time. I like them in little teases. I think you could talk me into a tease with taking them to double digits with the over. Just taking them to 7.5. Knocking down the over a little bit. Pat's Moneyline this is. I honestly feel like I'm watching 2001 again, no respect. Brady says he doesn't have a dog in the race, which really offended all the Pats fans. I did an Instagram video about that yesterday. You don't have a dog in the race. Tom Brady really just offensive. I don't understand that at all. And I love the spot. And most importantly, I don't see anyone picking the Pats. It feels like this is Seattle across the board. This is a coordination. How did things change in four weeks? They beat the depleted Niners twice and they barely beat the Rams. And Stafford threw all over the place on them. The Rams moved the ball the whole game. So why is this a juggernaut?
Joe House
Who said it's a juggernaut?
Bill Simmons
It's been treated that way.
Joe House
I don't think it is. All of this to me lines up with the priors and what we have observed over the entirety of the season, which is to say, you know, the Seattle was sort of power rated in a certain place near the top of the league for going on however long many weeks you want to say 12 weeks now, 13 weeks. And the Patriots have been ascending. They weren't rated at the top at the beginning of the season because they lost to the Raiders and they lost to the Steelers. So it's taken some time for this for the Patriots, you know, the true Patriots version of this team to reveal itself.
Bill Simmons
15 is 16 wins.
Joe House
And. And the playoff games didn't really instill a shit ton of confidence from the offensive side. Right. Because it was.
Bill Simmons
Why are people throwing out the weather part? That's the part I don't get. Why. Why are people discounting this Sunday night against the Chargers freezing Houston game was one of the coldest games in the history of the franchise. And then Denver Blizzard in the second half, not to mention zero windshield.
Joe House
It's fine in terms of the weather thing. He also played a guy, Jared Stanton.
Bill Simmons
We got lucky that. I mean that's like if they just go up to nothing, I think the Pats probably lose. Yeah, I Also don't know if Seattle has the type of team that I would be the most worried about from a defensive standpoint. Against the Pats, it's the guys that weren't like the Will Anderson type bonito. Like those are the guys that the Pats just the tackles have had trouble just staying in front of. And they've had to change their offense in a bunch of ways to change Chip. Those guys second protection. Seattle's like a push up the middle deep. That's where they get their pressure. They don't get a ton of sacks and Lawrence is the best guy they have.
Joe House
He's very good.
Bill Simmons
But we've been okay like blocking those guys. So I don't know. I think you can throw in them. Is there a cornerback on Seattle you love?
Joe House
It's just a very solid secondary.
Bill Simmons
Everybody's solid.
Joe House
Yeah, yeah. And they get the benefit of pressure from that, that front that makes quarterbacks, you know, the quarterbacks aren't sitting back there going, getting to third reads.
Bill Simmons
And the Darnold pressure stats are fantastic. I mean he's basically in the bottom five in a bunch of different categories. If you can actually get in his ass, which I think the Patriots can do. And I, I really think people got thrown off by those two San Francisco games when they had this patchwork team that included Keon White, who we waved. We basically traded him for a seventh round pick and he's playing all the time for the Diners. It just wasn't a good defense. They did an okay job against the.
Zach Lowe
Rams.
Bill Simmons
Blocking them and stuff. But I'm also not positive how good the Rams defense was. Like we saw the Panthers going up and down on them.
Joe House
Rams up front are super solid and all the numbers support them.
Bill Simmons
They're not amazing.
Joe House
They're not the Patriots amazing up front.
Bill Simmons
I think with Williams back, it's going to be really hard to run on them.
Joe House
There's no question that both teams are taking away the run. So this, this is the true fascinating challenge. The QB versus McDaniel. Right. And we're going to have to see some wrinkles out of these offenses. Some things we haven't seen.
Bill Simmons
Right.
Joe House
And that's why I think all of the Kenneth Walker enthusiasm is well placed. He's super dynamic and as you see him as the principal guy getting touches, I've been impressed by like, oh, he, he. Look at how he moves, right? He moves, you know, kind of in a Bijan way.
Bill Simmons
But they. He's only a 17 and 19 carry game guy. We've never seen him have more carries than that.
Joe House
I don't. They're.
Bill Simmons
I think their backup's terrible.
Joe House
It makes no sense whatsoever for them to. To. To rush 19 times. Try and rush that many times against the Patriots.
Bill Simmons
Well, some props that I was looking at, and Sal and I went over some of these. We have to make three picks. Three picks, right. For Ringer 107.
Joe House
You're asking me?
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I think it's three.
Joe House
How the hell would I know?
Bill Simmons
It was four. Four, four, three. Maybe it's five. Is it five?
Joe House
It might not be five. That's too many. I think it's three.
Bill Simmons
Maybe four. Five. Maybe it was five. Five, four, three. That's what it was. Five, five, four, three.
Joe House
America loves this.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Great contest. The fantasy guys have a chance to win. They're like, what's the prize? I was like, there's no prize. We're going to pretend this contest never happened. Figure out a better version of it next year. Ramondre 10 plus yards rushing in the first quarter. That one jumped out to me.
Joe House
Why?
Bill Simmons
Because I think the Pats are the way they've done. They've been very conservative in these first quarters, and I think they're going to establish the run and they probably have two run plays for that first quarter that they feel like they can get on Seattle, and I just think they're going to test them and try to do it and so they can set up the plate action for the next couple quarters. So I was looking at one parlay was Ramondre 10 plus rushing yards, first quarter with the over of 36 and a half points for the game. I think 36 and a half. I like that number because it's really rare for a Super bowl to go lower than that. Like, the only one I could think of is rams pats, like, eight years ago. Two teams are going to get to 37 points. They're running like crazy plays. Right. Like, what are the odds? You don't like it?
Joe House
Well, I'm worried about a 24 to 10 game.
Bill Simmons
Interesting. I don't think either team is going to score 10 points or less.
Joe House
Okay.
Bill Simmons
I just don't think that Seattle is going to be able to move the ball at least a little bit. And then I just. The Pats, if it's normal weather, I don't see how they're going to get shut down. I'd be really surprised by that. I don't think the Seattle team defensively is like some of these other great defenses we've had. It's not the, ooh, Ravens. It's not the Seahawks against the Broncos. It's not the Patriots against the Rams in that Super Bowl.
Joe House
But they're certainly as good as the three defenses that the Patriots just played and had a ton of trouble with. But certainly as good as those three defenses.
Bill Simmons
Well, I don't think they're as good as Houston's defense.
Joe House
They're in the neighborhood.
Bill Simmons
They're not solid weather this game. Unless it starts raining, which is 30% chance. I don't know why 61 degrees.
Joe House
Why are you so captivated by the weather?
Bill Simmons
Because I think the Pats had trouble in bad weather. I don't. They were a different team. I watched them all year. They weren't. They just didn't get the same explosive plays. All year. They were getting explosive plays. They didn't get them in those three games in the same.
Joe House
Because those defenses are really fucking good. They're the three best defenses that the Patriots played.
Bill Simmons
They basically played two and a half.
Joe House
Slicing that apple in half.
Bill Simmons
You.
Joe House
I'll give you a little bit. I'll give you a quarter chunk of an apple in terms of the weather, but I'm not giving you half the apple. Like the weather.
Bill Simmons
Ramon Dream.
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
It's funny though. Cause the rams Bears was 2017. The Rams offense looked like shit the whole game. People were like, ah, the weather like so why. Why did they get the weather right?
Joe House
That was cold.
Bill Simmons
Same thing for the Pats. It wasn't cold there. It was the same. The Houston game was colder than the Bears game. We had like the freezing sleet stuff. Drake may over 225 pass rush combined. 225 pass rush.
Joe House
So you. We both.
Bill Simmons
He basically gets around 190 to 200 passing and 30 to 35 rushing. Some combination. He might be able to beat that by himself. Especially if they can't run the ball. You put that with pats plus seven and a half. That's minus 120. JSN1 reception every quarter. What do you think the odds are?
Zach Lowe
Just one.
Bill Simmons
Just one reception.
Joe House
A little north of even.
Bill Simmons
Plus 100.
Joe House
Look at this.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Joe House
All right. I don't feel bad about that.
Bill Simmons
One catch a quarter for JSN. Figure like bubble screen over the middle. 1D pass. Seattle has the ball once a quarter. He's just not going to touch the ball on a drive. He's going to have to touch ball.
Joe House
Every drive seems like it. They certainly will be featuring him. It seems.
Bill Simmons
Lawrence sack plus 120 I think is an awesome bet.
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
The Pats gave up five Sacks in three games. And really it probably would have been more if they hadn't gone so conservative.
Joe House
In the second half of the Denver sacks a game. 15 total sacks. Yes, they did do that.
Bill Simmons
It probably would have been more if the blizzard hadn't come. A.J. barner rushing TD 18 to 1.
Joe House
That's fun.
Zach Lowe
That's.
Bill Simmons
That's just the tush push on the one yard line.
Joe House
That's a fun one.
Bill Simmons
18 to one. They played this game 18 times. That's not going to happen once.
Joe House
Yeah, 50 bucks out of my pocket on that one.
Bill Simmons
Tonga touchdown mentioned this on Sunday with Mike Vrabel doing the. I'm going to pass it forward to the guy who's not a skill player near the end zone. That's 75 to 1. Want to fight that? Drake May's second quarter over 71 and a half passing receiving yards.
Joe House
Say that again.
Bill Simmons
Drake May, second quarter only.
Joe House
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
71 and a half passing receiving yards. That's minus 112 passing receiving.
Joe House
I don't know.
Bill Simmons
I'm sorry. Yeah. Pass rush.
Joe House
Oh, pass and rush.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, my bad.
Joe House
Okay.
Bill Simmons
Okay.
Joe House
So one run for 11 yards.
Bill Simmons
Figure you get the ball at least twice in the second quarter. Maybe even a third time.
Joe House
Can't turn the ball over. Can't have three and out.
Bill Simmons
This team has always been slow. First quarter kind of gained steam. Second quarter. I thought that was a good one.
Joe House
Well, they have an outstanding record over the course of the season. In terms of first half, they've been dominant straight up and against the spread. First half, the Patriots have.
Bill Simmons
Well, that leads me to the next pick. Patriots first half tie. Second half, Patriots win.
Joe House
Shregs. Where Shregs at?
Bill Simmons
What do you think that is for this game?
Joe House
It's a big number.
Bill Simmons
First half tie, Patriots win. Second second half in the game.
Joe House
Plus is that like 12 to 1?
Bill Simmons
27 to 1.
Joe House
Oh, man.
Bill Simmons
10:10 at halftime. 3, 3, 7.
Joe House
I don't mind tie at the half. I really don't. Could be 17. 17.
Bill Simmons
It's one of my favorite bets. Barner just to score a TD is plus 230. So you get all touch push stuff. Plus anything around the goal line that's not JSN or Cup.
Joe House
I don't hate it.
Bill Simmons
Ramon Dre over 49 and a half yards rushing.
Joe House
I don't know.
Bill Simmons
Ramon Dre most rushing yards in the game plus 270. Huh?
Joe House
If he fumbles, will they keep giving him the ball?
Bill Simmons
He hasn't fumbled in three months.
Joe House
I understand.
Bill Simmons
So the Ramandre plus 270. My question is if the Patriots shut down Walker, which they've every running back they've gone against, I think with Milton Williams in the game has been what, 52 yards and under, something like that. I don't think anyone's gotten a 60 on them.
Joe House
Yeah, there's a, there's a thing where if Milton Williams has played the game more than 50% of the snaps on defense, no running back has rushed for over 50 yards. I think, I think that's the stat.
Bill Simmons
Okay, so could Ramandre get to 58 and Walker's like 17 for 49 and I have Ramandre plus two 70 plus 270 is the catch with that one.
Joe House
My issue isn't Walker. My issue is your other running back because what if he pops one?
Bill Simmons
Yep. Well, that's the other one that Sal and I talked about the other day. The Henderson, I think 80 plus yards was 25 to 1.
Joe House
Yeah, the Henderson ladder makes some sense to me.
Bill Simmons
Like little, just one, one.
Joe House
It's a tenth of a unit plays court, you know, whatever. Couple, couple of, you know, 20 buck plays here and there.
Bill Simmons
25 to 1. He's broken a 65 yarder and a 69 yarder.
Joe House
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
One of my favorite favorite bets, Matt Collins 50 plus receiving yards plus 310. I talked about this with Sal on Sunday. In the bigger games before he got hurt, he was always prominently involved with and he's probably other than Diggs, the favorite receiver for Maine. Like a big third down guy. He always seems to get like a 28 yarder over the middle. I like this Holland.
Joe House
I like getting involved in Hollins Cooper.
Bill Simmons
Cup over 40 plus yards plus 138. So the case here is he's going to play a ton of snaps. They need him for the blocking. I think the Pats are just going to try to take out Smith Najigba completely. They're not going to, but they're going to try because they have the right. They have Gonzalez, they have Marcus Jones that can stay with them on the short stuff. They're just going to shift everything to him and Cup's going to be out there all the time. And does cup become like, fine, you're giving us this, we'll keep taking it kind of thing. 40 plus seemed low to me. I thought they, I thought he was weirdly essential for them in those playoff games. Even if his stats weren't, didn't reflect it. Right.
Joe House
He made, you know, in many respects the play of the game on that conversion.
Bill Simmons
Any defensive or special teams touchdown. I wish this Line was better. It's +2 10.
Joe House
Nah, I'm not messing with that.
Bill Simmons
It doesn't seem high enough, right? Yeah, didn't seem high enough. There's some Marcus Jones Super Bowl MVP stuff that we talked about Sunday. That's 100 to 1. A couple people have mentioned this MVP one to me. If the Pat's win Milton Williams at 2:25 to 1 what's the scenario for him here? Like a sack fumble. He gets it.
Joe House
Yeah. A second sack, he recovers it.
Bill Simmons
The Seahawks can't run at all. And then he hovers into the end.
Joe House
Zone on one right.
Bill Simmons
Pats don't do a lot on offense so it's like a 17 of 6 type game.
Joe House
MVP for him means it was a strip sack fumble. He recovers it himself and he runs it into the end zone.
Bill Simmons
He gets a safety like he just kind of takes over the game.
Joe House
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
I thought 225 was high. It's a big number. Anything what's been your favorite stuff? What have you been looking at? I know you've been on Ringer Gamblin show.
Joe House
Yeah. I mean I'm all over all of the Kenneth Walker. You know that that's the most popular bet. I think that that's out there and all anybody's talked about for for two weeks is Kenneth Walker receiving yards. But I think that that's that fits exactly the way that Seattle's going to going to try and play this. I like some of the.
Bill Simmons
Is that too popular?
Joe House
It might be too popular, yeah. I mean you know I like the idea of both quarterbacks throwing an interception. I'll. I'll play it individually and together.
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
Joe House
I think there are going to be turnovers in this game. The May rushing yards. You know these are. I'm going this is all bread and butter stuff stuff that people have covered but these are the ones that I've actually bet like what's on my card. Hunter Henry over in terms of yardage. Think that's going to be an important part the one thing that you're going chalk Seattle. Well these, these were all bets that were available as soon as the market opened. And then I bet and then you know prices have changed.
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
Joe House
But that this is you know those all make sense to me. That's the script. Well we did a couple crazy ones with the cousin Sal this week. I bet on Shahid to at some point exceed 19 and a half miles per hour on the next gen stats.
Bill Simmons
Wow.
Joe House
As a ball you know carrying the ball and I think you get the benefit Of a, Of a kick return. So if he gets. Gets out and gets going a little bit or, you know, gets a catch out on the perimeter and gets going 19 and a half miles per hour. That was. That's plus four. That was a nice number.
Bill Simmons
Not.
Joe House
No, no, not plus 420. I can't remember. No, that was minus 114 for him to go over 19 and a half.
Bill Simmons
Is that on Fandor?
Joe House
Yes, yes.
Bill Simmons
It's.
Joe House
It's in the specials. There's a bunch of guys you can gamble on their, Their, their highest speed. Will they get to 18 and a half miles an hour? Yes or no?
Bill Simmons
Shahid? 19 miles an hour. Yeah, but he would have to make a big play at that point. You need he.
Joe House
You need him at 20 miles an hour. So you need him either in a kick return capacity or, you know, but.
Bill Simmons
If you're going to do that, why not just bet on him to have a touchdown?
Joe House
You could.
Bill Simmons
If he's running 20 miles an hour, that means he's running into the end zone.
Joe House
He could run 20 miles an hour and get tackled. It takes the pressure off of getting in the end zone.
Bill Simmons
That's pretty good. I, like, you mentioned the walker. So 25 plus rushing yards for him. I'm sorry. Receiving yards is plus one. 14.
Joe House
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
30 is plus one. 62. That's one real route that goes for like 22 yards, which is the play every Patriots fan is terrified of in this game with the slow linebackers and something designed and the receiver coming out. The running back receiver coming out in space and making a play.
Joe House
Absolute favorite. Love it.
Bill Simmons
So that's 25. We could make that one of the. One of the bets. One of the ringer bets.
Joe House
I support it. I endorse it wholeheartedly.
Bill Simmons
25 plus. You know who else is 25 plus Matt Collins, minus 114. 25 plus receiving yards could also be a ringer one for us. You like that one?
Joe House
I like both of those. How many do we have to do?
Bill Simmons
I don't know. I'll just do. I'll do four. I don't even know that people can choose. Yeah, the people. So we like Collins. We like Walker. Do you like Lawrence getting a sack?
Joe House
Yes. Love that. Adore it. Yes. Huge, big time. Bigly. Yes, do it.
Bill Simmons
And did you like JSN to get a reception every quarter at plus 100?
Joe House
That's fun. That's a good one.
Bill Simmons
All right, so here's what we're doing. Oh, I really like the over, though. Did you like Pats plus seven? And a half. Oh, I do like the Barner one, too. Pat's plus seven and a half with Drake over 225. Passing rushing yards minus 120. Or would Drake do Pats plus four and a half?
Joe House
I have Pat's plus ten and a half and under 51 and a half.
Bill Simmons
That makes me nervous.
Joe House
You don't like the under?
Bill Simmons
I just think Super Bowls weird shit happens.
Joe House
That's a true story.
Bill Simmons
You just have.
Joe House
The lid would really have to come off. The thing that's crazy is you have the number one and number two most efficient pass offenses.
Bill Simmons
Right.
Joe House
And you have the top two run defenses when. When Milton Williams plays. So what is that going to push the teams into? It's why I think you're ramandre that it's interesting to me that 10 yards in the first quarter bit, because that's the zag for the Patriots. Can we. Let's. Let's take a shot at establishing the run, right? Maybe an outside run kind of concept.
Bill Simmons
So Pat's plus ten and a half is minus 310 on FanDuel. And that would mean the over would have to go to 39 and a half. Pat's 10 and a half over. Basically 40 plus points and up. We could do as a bet, what's the price? That's minus 119.
Joe House
Okay. You prefer an over to an under?
Bill Simmons
I think both teams are going to move the ball better than people realize.
Joe House
Okay. Because.
Bill Simmons
I just think that Seattle's going to be able to throw the ball in the Pats. Carl Davis will have at least one PI, right? And just in general, the super bowl is when you break out all your shit. This is like, I'm having guests over and it's like, do I want to just put chips and pretzels out for them or am I going to fucking make shit? Am I making people wood fire pizzas? And am I. Did I go to the market and buy some cheese? And is there like a salami prosciutto plate? Like, you're going all out.
Joe House
Yeah.
Bill Simmons
You're like, I have guests coming.
Joe House
Let's go. Something delicious. The port secreto. Get the pork secreto. That guy who cooked me some that.
Bill Simmons
Want some pork right before you passed out. So you like the. Are you okay with the over 39 and a half?
Joe House
Yeah, yeah, I am okay with that.
Bill Simmons
Okay. I really want to do the Pats plus four and a half, though, just as a.
Joe House
Go ahead. Go ahead. You can. You're the decider. I'm just the consigliere.
Bill Simmons
Okay. The Ringer 107 is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. All spreads are subject to change on this podcast. In the playoffs, we are 7 and 5 with the spreads. The actual Ringer 107 picks have not been as good because we've gotten too artsy. Fartsy. First pick Pats plus four and a half. I just think this is a three point game. I think you're getting a point and a half on the PAT side because of how they looked in the weather and because people aren't sure about Drake May shoulder. I think Drake Moyes shoulder is fine. Second bet. We like these two props, two guys to get 25 plus receiving yards. I just thought we could have probably parlayed these together. Well, we.
Joe House
We can do that. Can we do that on the show? But we can do it.
Bill Simmons
No, but we could do that as the bet.
Joe House
But America can do it.
Bill Simmons
Matt Collins, 25 plus yards. That's minus 114 anytime he's actually been healthy, which has been most of the season, he plays a lot of snaps. They need him for blocking and May goes to him. So that's one. Kenneth Walker, 25 plus receiving yards at minus 114 for the wheel route, we could do that one or we can do Lawrence getting a sack for Seattle at plus 120.
Joe House
Isn't the Walker prop at 25 yards plus money? Because the regular prop is like 20, 20 and a half or 21 and a half. It's not all the way up to 25 receiving yards.
Bill Simmons
I just looked at it.
Joe House
I thought you were giving us a little bit of a slight plus money bet.
Bill Simmons
Receiving yards, alternate. I'm looking at it right now. Yeah, 25 plus is plus 114.
Joe House
Yeah. Plus plus.
Bill Simmons
Yeah, plus.
Joe House
That's what I thought.
Bill Simmons
My bad. Plus 114 and then. Or Lauren sack at plus 120. What do you like more? We have to choose probably because I want to do Pat's plus ten and a half with the over of 39 and a half. Okay.
Joe House
I'm going to choose wrong. I'm going to play both. Play both. You're listening to this show. Play both. I will choose for our.
Bill Simmons
For Ringer 107 we'll play both of these, but for Ringer 107 we are doing.
Joe House
Walker over 25.
Bill Simmons
Okay. Those are our four Pats plus four and a half. Pats plus ten and a half. Parlayed with the over 39 and a half. Hollins, 25 plus yards. Walker 25 plus yards. Apologies to Trevor Lawrence getting a sack. Not Trevor Lawrence. Marcus Lawrence plus one plus one 20. Ramandre 10 plus rushing yards. First quarter over 36 and a half. We like that one. JSN one reception each quarter. Plus 100. Love that one. I love the tie in the first half with the Patriots within the second half 27 to one. That's on favor.
Joe House
Go ahead and bet it.
Bill Simmons
AJ Barner rushing TD 181 we both like both QBs to throw an interception and especially both QBs to throw an interception together in the same game as plus 200. Playing it cup over 40 plus yards plus one 38.
Joe House
Do love that one.
Bill Simmons
And then I like Ramandre for most rushing yards plus 270 because that would mean the Patriots have shut down the Seattle defense. And just for the record, I think the Patriots are going to win the game and I think the final score is going to be 24 to 20. New England Patriots.
Joe House
Okay.
Bill Simmons
By the way, I also like that there's a bet with the Seahawks kicker. Seven plus points.
Joe House
Yes.
Bill Simmons
I think that's around even.
Joe House
Okay.
Bill Simmons
But I thought that was a good one too. Give us your super bowl pick while we're here. Go ahead, pick Seattle. Go ahead, be another media stooge.
Joe House
No, I'm a coward and this is. You're going to. It's going to be the same pick for the pregame show. No, I do have a whole bunch of props for that and we're getting together. It's going to be great Sunday morning. Maybe all weekend long. It might be up Sunday morning ringer.
Bill Simmons
Pregame show, pregame show.
Joe House
I don't mind previewing this. I am playing the Patriots plus 10 and a half parlayed with under 51 and a half. That is available at minus 122 if you want to get it closer to minus 110. Exactly. Minus 110. Under 50 and a half. But I want the possibility of a 51 point game. You know, in terms of a total coming in, I feel like 51 is a. Is a very fair number. So under 51 and a half. Pat's plus 10 and a half. The Patriots haven't lost. They've only lost three games and all three were by one score. This is not the game that I think they're going to lose by margin. So that is my favorite play and I'm probably.
Bill Simmons
I'm going to wait until Sunday.
Zach Lowe
I'll.
Bill Simmons
I'll tweet out something, but there's something with the Patriots plus eight and a half. Something lower with May's total and then something with the over or the under that I think could be around plus 100. But I'm going to wait to see where the line goes. I think the line's going to drop.
Joe House
Why?
Bill Simmons
I think it's going to end up at 4.
Joe House
Oh, you. Oh. Think some patriot money's coming?
Bill Simmons
I do.
Joe House
Okay.
Bill Simmons
I think people were waiting to see what the Drake mace shoulder situation was.
Joe House
Well, let me ask you this. I'm going to give gentle pushback. When the line was set, it was, you know, Sunday night after the conference championship games were done, it was at five and a half. It moved down to four and a.
Bill Simmons
Half because it was too high.
Joe House
But what I'm saying is at the time that the line was set and moved in that direction, the Drake may shoulder stuff was not part of it. And then the number hasn't moved at all over the course of this entire saga with the great Drake Mason.
Bill Simmons
It usually moves around Friday.
Joe House
Okay.
Bill Simmons
And speaking of Friday, you and I, you're coming up to Boston. I'm going to Boston. We're going to heat Celtics with Jacko and then. And my daughter. You get to get to have drinks with my daughter.
Joe House
She's the best.
Bill Simmons
There'll be non alcoholic drinks for her because she's not 21 yet.
Joe House
She's just sipping diet Coke.
Bill Simmons
Yeah. As far as we know, she's having a coke. And then Saturday we were going up to our alma mater, the college of the Holy Cross.
Joe House
Let's go.
Bill Simmons
Where we ran about 500,000 pick and rolls. We did in all kinds of two on two, three on three, and five on five games. We're going back because they are dedicating the court of the main basketball stadium to the one and only Bob Cousy, who we get to meet. And I can't wait. It's going to be awesome. All right, I'll see you in Boston. House, good to see you. Thanks. And Eduardo and Jack Wilson. Everybody else on the ringer side. This is a really fun week. I'm going to be back on Sunday live on Netflix right after super bowl lx. And in the meantime, over the weekend, you can watch Ace Ventura because that's going to be the next rewatchables. Bye, house.
Joe House
See you, buddy.
Bill Simmons
Thanks, buddy. Must be 21 plus on President in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 on President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-Gambler, visit rg-help.com call 888-797-777 or visit ccpg.org Chattinconenetic or mdgamblinghelp.org In Maryland, Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplionma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York. For Louisiana, call 877-770-7867.
Date: February 5, 2026
Guests: Zach Lowe, Joe House
In this jam-packed, deadline-day episode, Bill Simmons is joined by NBA analyst Zach Lowe to break down the chaos, surprises, and confusion of the 2026 NBA trade deadline—including the not-quite-yet Giannis Antetokounmpo saga, the Zubac-to-Indiana trade bombshell, and the teams that make you mutter: “What the hell are you doing?” Joe House later hops on to discuss (and commiserate over) his Wizards landing Anthony Davis and to lay down a slew of Super Bowl bets and predictions, including whether the Patriots are being overlooked once again.
Tone: Lively, skeptical, irreverent—with Simmons’ signature blend of NBA-nerd analysis and pop culture asides.
[01:18–05:46]
Memorable Quote:
“I think 20 years from now, he's really going to regret it because he's going to get traded anyway.” — Bill, [05:46]
Takeaway:
Milwaukee is playing a dangerous waiting game. Giannis hasn’t publicly (or forcefully) demanded out, and both he and the team seem mired in indecision. Both host and guest agree—this situation is ripe to haunt at least one party.
[02:06-beyond; revisited throughout]
[14:38–32:01+]
(Continuous, esp. 45:00 onward)
[33:42+]
[26:53+]
[10:20–13:58; revisited later]
[87:44–end]
NBA:
This deadline was less about fireworks and more about setting the chessboard for summer—especially the looming Giannis move. Minnesota and Indiana made the clearest forward strides; the Bulls, Kings, and Magic continue to confound, and the old guard (Miami, Warriors) are lying in wait. The league’s size-arms race is on, second-round picks are flying, and Giannis is stuck between wanting change and not wanting to make waves.
NFL:
Bill Simmons and Joe House bring bring their eternally-pessimistic Pats fan energy—but can’t help but feel history repeating as New England enters as underdogs. Expect a scrappy game, a downpour of prop bets, and the football gods televising yet another New England upset.
For more detail and analysis, listen to the full episode on Spotify or Netflix, and catch Zach Lowe’s trade deadline wrap-up dropping later tonight.