← The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Niners Magic, Schlitt Happens, a Red Sox Postmortem, the Seahawks Ceiling, and Week 5 NFL Picks With Kevin Hench and Joe House
01:49:09
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- [00:01]
A
This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. Thursday Night Football is on and it's only on Prime. This week, NFC west rivals meet again as the San Francisco 49ers visit the Los Angeles Rams. The NFC west looks like it is our best division of the eight. Every time anybody plays in this division, it always feels like it's going to come down to the wire. It's always hard to figure out. I'm always nervous. Whatever side I have, listen, it's going to be a good one. Coverage begins at 7pm Eastern with Football's Best Party TNF Tonight, presented by Verizon. I hope Dave Chang is on. Not a Prime member? Not a problem. Simply sign up for a 30 day free trial. It's the 49ers and Rams Thursday at 7pm Eastern only on Prime Video restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network where you can find me on two other podcasts. The Prestige TV Podcast we are breaking down Task every Sunday night right after it runs on hbo. Fifth episode. It's really something. So we are on right after you can find it, download it, watch it on Spotify, on YouTube, wherever you get it. Rewatchables we're doing Redford Month and on Monday we are doing Jeremiah Johnson, one of my dad's two favorite movies. It is unlike it might be the ultimate mountain man movie that's ever been made. It's one of Redford's, I think, best performances. It's a good one for his catalog which we talked about on the podcast, but that's actually on Tubi so if you want to watch that before Monday, you can find it. Also, big news on the rewatchables front. Eddie and the Cruisers, a movie we've been dying to do for a couple years, is gonna be on TMC at 11:30pm on Monday, October 13th. So record it, watch it live, whatever, because we have to do Eddie and the Cruisers. It is one of the great bad cable movies of all time, but it's not bad. It's actually awesome and I'm so glad it's running because there's some rewatchable movies that we wanna do and they just don't exist. I don't know what happens to them like the rights get screwed up or whatever happens to some of these movies like the sure Thing or irreconcilable differences. Kiss of Death with Nic Cage can't be found, but There's a million of these and it might be one of my crusades in 2026 to get these movies back, back in the eyes and ears of people that should be watching them. And more importantly, for the rewatchables. All right, before we talk about what's coming up on the podcast, Niners, Rams tonight. So this was on during the Red Sox game that we're going to be talking about later. And then actually the fourth quarter was happening as Kevin Hench and I, we're recording our Red Sox postmortem and talking about Schlitler and what this means for the Yankees Red Sox rivalry. What are the silver linings? We did a whole bunch of stuff and it was really fun. And then the game went in overtime. So I actually watched the overtime just now and the Rams went for it on 4th and 1 with a typical terrible Sean McBay 4th and 1 call. This is like for what a genius he is as an offensive mind and what a great coach he is. And I think he's one of the best five or six coaches. It's stunning how bad some of his big fourth and one or like season on the line, game on the line. Some of his calls, like, I was like, I'm watching it going, please don't run Williams right into the middle in front of eight guys. Just do the, do the play where Puka just flares out and he throws it for two yards. Like. Or fake that. You're going to. No, nothing. The Niners end up stealing it. The niners are now 4 and 1 even though half of their team is injured. Mac Jones, who looked like he was playing on one leg for and just got hurt over and over again during the game, finished with 3:42 for two touchdowns. Kendrick Bourne was over 100 yards. These are all like former failed Patriots. This is the year of former failed Patriots. Why is God torturing us? But it was a great win for the Niners. The Rams fall to three and two and I think the big winner might have been the Seahawks because I still think the Seahawks are the live bet in that division. Joe House and I are going to talk about that later. But it was a really, really great Thursday game and for a second it felt like another tie was in play. There are never ties, ever. We had a tie Sunday and it felt like there would be another one today. But the Rams really blew it. They ended up, I think they were 8 1/2, 8.9-point favorites. It was over 7 by the time game time happened and the Niners playing on short rest. It seemed like a throwaway game for them in a lot of ways and it just, it wasn't. Somehow they are now four and one. Their over under for the year was ten and a half and it seemed like when they started getting all these injuries, no way they're not. No way they're hitting that over now. Now they're 4 and 1 and can they get to 11 and 6? Bizarre. They've had, they've had some very strange games this season. And the Rams, I just feel like, are probably the most talented team in that division and are somehow a game back with Seattle kind of looming. And as we talk about later with House, I really like that Seattle team. So House and I are coming up later. We're breaking down the week five slate. We're doing Ringer 107 picks. Coming up next, my buddy Kevin Hench, Red Sox postmortem, we're going to talk about the Yankees. Do they actually have some World Series chances? We're going to try to, we're going to try to jinx them as much as we can. It's all coming up next. We're going to take a break. And then our friends from Pearl Jam. This this is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on, FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in. Live your way so you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use and best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts, recently. Guess what? I did use Fando Super Fun. Download the Fando app or go to fando.com BS to get started. Must be 21+president, select states, 18/in D.C. kentucky and Wyoming 100 Gambler. Visit rg-help.com call 888-789777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Conn. All right, recording the top part of the podcast. It's a little before 8 o' clock on Thursday night. The Red Sox season is over. The Niners Rams game is going. They said we're going to try this one. We're going to have the NFL game on as my buddy Kevin Hench and I recap the end of the Red Sox season. A team that was lovable, frustrating. And you saw all of it over the course of this series. It all came down to one inning. Hench a four run inning with our with our rookie early out there and our defense let us down, and all of a sudden the season was over.
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I mean, it, you know, really, the series was lost last night. You know, Jaron Duran being built like DK Metcalf, not always great for baseball. Like, you know, he's. He's a bodybuilder. And so he did all the hard work of getting to Aaron Judge's pop fly. And then the simple part, which is also DK's problem, by the way, the simple part of just squeezing it in your. In your midst.
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A
Yeah.
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B
Got away from him. So that's one run that they shouldn't have scored. And then obviously, if Sedan gets the bunt down last night, so guard's fly ball is the sack fly. We win the game 4:3. Instead of losing the game 4:3, we vanquish the evil empire. But Sedan's bunt, now, believe me, I wish I. I was in Zoe Simmons soccer game last night. So Sedan, you know, Cora puts the bunt on first and second, nobody out. You're like, definitely the right baseball play in a playoff game for sure. Then Sadan proceeds to stab at a pitch 14 inches outside the strike zone. And I'm like, you got to take the bunt off. This guy is not going to execute a bunt. And so he doesn't. He leaves the bunt on, and Zaydan buns it on the fly to the rubber.
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And.
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Which, ironically, is further than he hit a ball for eight weeks in July and August. Like he had a slump after the All Star break where he just never hit the ball. And then. And then he rips a bunt back to the pitcher's mound. They don't advance the runners. They lose last night by a run. And just tonight felt preordained, like I was like, when you let a team off the hook, when you have them. Cora going and getting Bayo in the third, like he was not messing around. He knew he went for it last night, and we had him. And then. And we let him off the hook and. And then, you know, you and I have. Have a lot of experience with Cam Schlitler. Very little of it is good as it, you know, as. As Roto owners who now have to keep him for $19, but we actually have to.
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A
He played himself on our roster next year. Hench and I picked him up. What was it, mid July? For 19 bucks. We took a flyer. He had big strikeout numbers and he had some good starts for us, but nothing, nothing, nothing like tonight.
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B
Historic dominance, you know, shitty lineup you know, it was. Yes. I mean, that. And that's the thing, you know, this is not our team. Our best player is out for the season. Roman Anthony, the. The best player in a generation. The Red Sox, you know, the. Willie Abreu, a top five player on this roster, also essentially out for the season. Like, he never got his timing back. So he back and dressed, but he didn't do anything after he came back. You know, our first basement. Tristan Casas lost him for the season. And then we lost Houle, Cutter, Crawford, Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitz. Those are four guys who could have made 120 starts. They made 30 starts. So you end up with like, why are you guys starting Connolly early in a playoff game?
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And G Lito, who made it all the way to the end of September to get his bonus for next year and then got hurt.
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Yeah, we're. We're on our 11th starter.
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A
That.
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B
That's why this kid who doesn't look like he's old enough to drink is starting a deciding game in Yankee Stadium. We've, you know, this is modern baseball. You kind of have to have a staff where six guys have tj. Yeah, that's how you get through the season. But, you know, so obviously going back to Sunday, I was like, we have to lose to the Tigers. We have to lose to the Tigers. And you know, this was.
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A
Yeah, you were comparing it to the Joe Milton game.
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B
Yeah, it was David. Same thing David Hamilton and Jose De Leon. Joe Milton does on the last day of the season where we absolutely have to lose. You know, Butch Coolidge is supposed to.
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Take hold on the irony of David Hamilton, who had the worst bunting sequence, not just of the season, but of of the decade, that cost us the extra win that we would have had to maybe even sniff. Sniff something better than where we ended up.
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Three month attempts in San Diego where it's like, you're an under.200 hitter, middle infielder, utility infielder with no power, borderline guy. Like, this obviously is a skill you have to have. Like, you must do this. You must do this all the time. And it's like, nope, can't bunt as nobody. I feel like, you know, Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino. Why can't anybody bunt? Like, I'm just angry.
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A
That's the thing about these 162 game seasons that we experience day to day on our text thread. These little moments that happen during the six months and then when you get to the playoffs, they all come back. Like Rafaela, who I think is A fantastic center fielder. He has one weakness on those little stupid pop fives into mid center that he's always laid on and he's always diving wrong. And how many times did that happen this year? 8.
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B
It's insane for a guy who catches everything in the triangle.
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A
Yeah.
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You're like, how is he even there? And I don't know, he just must not get a good read because the last 22 pop flies in front of him, he. He's laid out, got leather on them and caught zero of them. So. So, yeah, we had to lose so we could face the Guardians, who obviously they were going to pumpkin that that team was not. That team had a minus six run differential on the season. They were not good. We had to lose on Sunday. And then of course, when Jose DeLeon starts for us, I'm like, who's Jose DeLeon? And I go to the baseball stats and he was.09 with a 6.93 ERA in AAA. And I'm like, okay, Cora is doing everything he can. You can't get a call from the commissioner. You have to put players on the field. So it's like you start Jose De Leon, you start David Hamilton, you're doing everything you can. Jose De Leon has the start of his life, and David Hamilton hits a home run and we win and we have to play the Yankees.
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A
The funny thing was you were actually focused on this. I was just like, whoever we play, whatever the, The. The roster we have, it's not like we're winning four rounds. Ryder cup was on, NFL was on. But in retrospect, I wish I had been more focused on Jose De Leon.
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B
You know, I mean, the Guardians, like, they're. They're number five hitters hitting.195. Like, their lineup reminds me of our lineup. Like, they are terrible. And I know you, me and o', Malley, and sure, the thread all recognizes how flawed this Yankees team is, but they also almost always have a terrifying guy at the plate. Like, you say what you want about what a weird team they are, but, like, a lot of time you're like, oh, Ben Rice could go deep here.
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A
Well, especially if you're. If you have a righty going against them, it feels like like six, seven guys could just go deep on any. I bet. Which we used to have back when the owner spent more money and they actually cared about the roster. Now we have. Now we have Nate Lowe. Was there a more obvious guy in the history of the franchise to make the last out of the season than Nate Lowe?
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I mean, it was such A bummer. I mean, because, of course, we had no first baseman for most of the year. We were trying to do it with, like, Abraham Toro.
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We did have a first baseman. We just never asked them to play first base in February and March. Rafael Devers.
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B
That's right. I forgot about.
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We just told him he was going to DH only. And then when our first baseman got hurt, all of a sudden, he was mad at everybody and didn't want to play first base. That guy's dead to me forever. So.
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B
So Abraham Toro, bless his heart, because, you know, he. He really battled, but he was, like, my height, and I am not. And it. You know, as someone who's played a lot of shortstop, you don't like throwing the midgets at first base. Like, every throw has to be right on the money. There's no stretch.
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A
It's funny is you bringing him up that he was, like, 12 terrible Red Sox hitters ago. He's not even in the team anymore. He batted cleanup for us after the.
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Trail, hit fifth tonight. Like, I really like this. Anyway, so. So when we got Nathaniel low, like, the first thing I do is, like. I'm like, oh, he's 6 4. Okay, well, that's right off the bat, where he's 6 4.
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He looks the part.
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And then I look, and I'm like, oh, you want to go glove? Okay, that's good. And then I looked at his Ranger numbers, and I'm like, this guy's. This guy's not very good. Like, he strikes out all the time, and, you know, and he obviously kind of just finally fizzled out with the Nationals. Like, there's a reason he was on the slag heap. And then, you know, hit the big home run against the Orioles, and we're like, oh, he's going to have that death rattle two months where he's awesome. And then it's like, no, he's just a not very good hitter.
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And it.
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And it really had the death rattle on. On the ground ball to first base, where we needed him to make a really good play. And, of course, I mean, it's funny.
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About the four runs tonight because, like, not only, you know, last night, our bodybuilder in left field couldn't squeeze the ball. But Romy Gonzalez is. Is also built like a bodybuilder. And then when he was trying to get to Volpe's dribbler, like, blocky. He's fast in a straight line like dk, but you have to move laterally. And then he also could have been standing under Bellinger's popup. That started the whole problem. Somebody should have been camped under that ball because it was up there for a week and a half and, and.
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So, so it was ridiculous. I can't believe that started everything because early was. Early was dealing.
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But as, as depressing as those four runs were, you know, I texted you early on, I was like, how are we going to score a run?
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We're not. You could tell with Slidler right away.
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It was just like, oh my God. He could just announce, hey, it's going to be one on one. Right down the middle. There was. We were overmatched from, from jump street.
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He must have loved playing our lineup too. Oh no.
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B
You get excited, right?
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You're like, well the thing with these guys, these big strapping right handers who can throw one on one and you also give them an awesome crowd and play off adrenaline. Like we were arguing on our thread about whether he should have even come back in for the seventh. I liked it because he was only at like 90 pitches. But it's like we haven't, we haven't touched this guy, of course, but when they brought him back for the eighth, I thought that was pushing it. And then of course we swung at everything and it was a seven pitch inning.
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B
And you know, I mean, game one, Luke Weaver scarred Boonie for life. So I bet he just was like, please get me to Bednar low. You know, Lowe's lows body would look out of shape on a men's league softball team. Like he would be the fat out of shape guy on a, on a team of 50 year olds.
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A
Yeah, they had a slow mo of him Ms. Swinging, missing and his belly was juggling in the slow mo. I was like, I haven't seen that in a while.
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B
He, he hits a comebacker and it's like it's the most slow motion double play is Devin Williams last night air mails Volpe. So it's like he almost throws it into center field and you're like, oh, are we, are they going to get no outs?
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A
It's like, oh no, no.
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Volpe saved it from going to center field. He came down on the bag. Well, it's obviously you're not going to get a double play. It's like, oh no. Low still running. He's 2/3 of the way to first base. Wow.
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A
He's like running like he's in a horror movie being chased by a serial killer villain. So I gotta be honest, I mean, especially after yesterday, wasn't feeling great about today because it was October 2nd, which is our Michael Myers Day for Red Sox fans. You just go back to 1978, which I think was the first real. Maybe the Ben Drake game. I was pretty young when that happened, but I knew something bad had happened in Raiders. Pats definitely watched it, the ref in the passage and Sugar Bear Hamilton. But that Bucky Dent game was the first actually crying from a loss game for me. And so just seeing that this game was on October 2nd, I can't say I felt great. You must have felt the same way, right?
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B
Yeah. I mean, obviously all the success has ameliorated the pain of that day quite a bit.
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A
Yeah. But there's still just the day itself. It's hard not to just think of. Yeah. As popping out to. To Nettles.
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B
Well, it's funny because, you know, your, your, Your doc was on a couple nights ago and I was, I was watching the. The Comeback from. From three Zip. And it's just. It never gets old. It's so amazing. All those characters, all those moments, all those plays. Like, you know, you talk about, like Duran not squeezing judge's ball last night and, and, and missing the bunt. It's like the 2004 Red Sox made every play. Like there was no Curtis Liscanik. Like there's nobody. Once we had no margin for error. Nobody did anything wrong. It was insane.
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A
Well, and then we got every break, too. I'll never forget that. Tony Clark. Tony Clark double going, going into the stands and just saving our asses.
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B
But, but in the. So whenever you're establishing what the mood was in 2004, you have to show 2003. And like, sometimes I see these things and I'm like, how did I survive? How did I. How did we have. We did.
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A
We were working together at Jimmy Show. I left the next day. I left early. I asked if I could leave. I couldn't function.
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B
And then, you know when he brings. When Tito brings Pedro in, in game seven.
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A
Why are you doing that?
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B
2004. It's 2004. There's no explanation for it. And then, you know, I know Tito's already doing sound bites, so I know he's going to be asked this question. And then Pedro has already said, I didn't have my sleeves on. Like, I know I. There's under no circumstances did I think I was pitching in this game. And then Tito goes. It was really important to Pedro. And I love those moments where someone's lying. Someone is definitely lying. It's like, well, if it was so important to him, he should have Known where his cleats were because he didn't think he was pitching. But it took me back to like, even when, even when you're up, you know, eight one, you can get nervous because you're a Red Sox fan.
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A
Yeah, but we flipped this though on them. By the time we got to this decade, I felt like we had flipped the juju and now it took 20, 25 where they just have a way more expensive, better lineup and better pitchers and better everything. And we had basically this, we had a five man team.
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B
You don't think Nathaniel Lowe could start for the Yankees?
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A
I don't. I mean they must. I was thinking about like, you know, some people don't really watch other teams until we get to. If you're a National League fan, you've probably haven't watched the Red Sox this year. I was thinking about people just watching our lineup going, wait, this guy, this guy's batting fifth or, or just the first pitch.
- [22:07]
B
Rob Ref Schneider is your, your leadoff hitter. Like that guy's been a utility player for 10 years. And we did have this crazy smoke and mirrors thing where Romy and Ref were our, our lefty killers.
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A
I actually thought they were going to do well in game one.
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B
They, they are utility players. They're, they're not everyday players. And so when they started the series over 13, I was like, yeah, America's been introduced to our lineup.
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A
Well, and then that, those guys. And then the other one was Raphaela who really came on the last couple of weeks of the season and seemed like he was back to where he was in June. And then he stunk in this series.
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B
He had the 11 pitch walk and I was like this, this, the 11 pitch walk against Weaver that really won game one was like, like a, a poker player setting a guy up for the big win at the end. Like Rafael spent 600 plate appearances going, you're not going to believe what's going to happen. I'm going to take that pitch out of the strike zone. I'm going to walk.
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A
But he's like this sting.
- [23:17]
B
He's back to his normal self tonight. Striking out on ball four in the second.
- [23:21]
A
Let's, let's take a quick break and then I want to do Silver Linings. This episode is brought to you by Scout Motors. You don't change the game by standing on the sidelines. You do it by building something new. Iconic in the 70s and reimagined for today. The all new Scout Terra and Scout Traveler are engineered from the ground up with advanced capability and bold Ingenuity, build brand new for what's next. Opposing defenses take note. Join the wait list@scoutmotors.com Concept vehicles not available for sale. Joining the wait list does not guarantee purchase. Visit scoutmotors.com for details.
- [23:56]
B
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- [24:25]
A
All right, Hench. Silver linings. The Yankees have to bring back Aaron Boone. Now, I think that's a win for us, right? You can't fire him now. He won a playoff series. Men have to extend them.
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B
And by the way, like, I don't. I mean, I've said this a lot, but, like, I miss George Steinbrenner. Like, I love, you know, we grew up with the, you know, Billy Martin, Bob Lemon, Billy Martin, Dick Hauser, Billy Martin. Like, that was fun. This thing of, like, Cashman and Boone have lifetime appointments like Supreme Court justices. Like, where's the fun of New York? And I feel the same way about the Cowboys. Like, Jerry Jones is the nicest guy in the world. Like, you know, like, they lose a game and he's like, I'm sick to death for the kids. I love those guys. Like, are you pissed off? Nobody's angry anymore. Billionaires aren't angry. Like, yeah, Boone should have been fired 10 times over. And Cashman, I can't believe how many lives Cashman has. Has lived through this, this drought. Like, 2009, you're the Yankees. Why is this guy still making personnel decisions?
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A
Silver lining number two. Judge didn't really do anything. Playoff judge is still a factor. It's still a fun thing. Like, because all we have now, once the Red Sox get eliminated, is now rooting against the Yankees, which is, like, brings me 97% of the satisfaction of the Red Sox winning. So Judge not being able to get over the hump as, like, this awesome playoff hitter. We still have that holding onto it.
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C
Well.
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B
And sure, sure made the great point that, like, Judge hitting a flare to left that Duran drops and then, and then going, this is our house. At first. Like, you just hit a weak fly ball to left. Yeah, that, you know, Randy Macho Man Savage couldn't haul it. Like, like, like, why are you happy? Why are you proud of yourself?
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A
Here's my third silver lining. McMahon made that great, great careening into the dugout catch in the, what was it, the eighth inning? Nobody helped him. I like that. The Red Sox, Yankees animosity is still there. That guy was just going to careen to his death. And people were like, no.
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B
Like, no. Obviously the lesser angels of our nature immediately when Slayton hit Judge were like.
- [26:42]
A
Oh, is that the hammock bone fracture possibility? I was like, ah, maybe that'll sting them for the rest of the game. The. The four silver lining, and this is a bigger conversation, are the Red Sox owners going to care that they lost the Series to the Yankees, the team that we have tilted the upper hand on over the last 20 plus years? And now when you watch the Yankees roster versus the Red Sox roster and they allegedly traded Devers so that they would have more money to spend this winter, and you have Roman Anthony, who's this generational talent, as you said, who. I do think if he's in this series, I think he maybe swings game two. But I just want people to understand, like, how good that guy is. Are they going to actually give a shit about next season in a real way? Because I have no idea.
- [27:32]
B
Well, I mean, obviously the nucleus is already there. So the question becomes, what do they add?
- [27:38]
A
How about some starters? That would be fun. Well, how about not doing the roll the dice with the $19 million guy coming off some sort of injury and keeping your fingers crossed. Can we stop that?
- [27:48]
B
The Walker Bueller formula has failed.
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A
Repeatedly failed.
- [27:53]
B
Maybe we get a guy like Nick Pavetta. Hey, that's an interesting thing. Four years, 55 million for a guy who makes every start. Like, you know, and then Quinn priest are going 19 starts for the brewers without losing. You know that when we're, when we are going into, like, literally into Double A to get to the finish line because we have no starters and Pavetta and Priester are making every start we're in.
- [28:18]
A
We're in an AL keeper league and we also follow all the Baseball America prospects. At no point in the first four months of this season was I like, I wonder if early can start a playoff game for us. That was not a conversation we had.
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B
We had all had our eyes on Tolle because he was ripping through the system so fast and he threw so hard. And then it's like, you're like, oh, he's not your best rookie lefty, right? I mean, Conley early knows what he's doing out there. He really.
- [28:46]
A
And he was so unfair that I was annoyed by the announcers. I thought they did a terrible job in the fourth inning. I thought they're pretty good for the game. But being like, oh, and they're finally figured him out second time in the order. They're, they're finally late. And it was like, are you watching this? We should have caught the pop fly. Optimize the grounders. Like Bulpy would have stopped one of those. And then Nate Lowe.
- [29:10]
B
Announcers like a guy, a guy gets completely beaten by a pitch and it jams him and he hits a flare over the first basement's head there. Great piece of hitting.
- [29:19]
A
Yeah, gutsy.
- [29:21]
B
It's like, it's like, oh, what a save. That thing that hit him in the throat that he didn't know anything about. What a save. Yeah, they were. That they had figured something out the second time through the order so that they could hit all those weak pop flies.
- [29:35]
A
Meanwhile, as we're, as we're recorded this the the Rams driving for a possible game winning touchdown. This could be yet another Kyle Shanahan has the lead and then collapses late game.
- [29:46]
B
I don't know.
- [29:46]
A
Well, I know how he does it.
- [29:49]
B
You, if you win three games with Matt Jones, you should go right to the hall of Fame. I know. Like, I'm sorry, I don't know how.
- [29:55]
A
You should get the Aaron Boone extension.
- [29:57]
B
Obviously I've been watching baseball, so I don't, I don't know how Mac Jones has done tonight, but it's pretty crazy.
- [30:03]
A
Well, big picture thoughts. So Mike Shore, our friend texted that it's the least talented Red Sox playoff team since the Jose Offerman years. And that sent a chill down my spine because I remember those 90s teams kind of talking yourself into the chance while deep down knowing like this was a freaking mismatch and that these Yankees teams were juggernauts and we weren't going to be there. Now the reasons for that, there are a lot of injuries, like a comic amount of injuries this year combined with some bad fragment moves. But I also feel like the nucleus isn't that far away with the young guys.
- [30:40]
B
Oh my God. Kyron Williams just fumbled at the one yard line.
- [30:43]
A
Come on.
- [30:44]
B
He, he. Remindre Stevenson it. No, I think so. I think so.
- [30:51]
C
I'm so.
- [30:51]
B
He just reminded it, he reminded it at the 6 inch line. I just looked up because I thought I was getting my third Kyron Williams touchdown. The Niners are celebrating. Sorry, sorry.
- [31:03]
A
Nucleus 20, 26 nucleus.
- [31:07]
B
But what I'd say, okay, so you know, I don't know if Tristan casus is a 3.2 war or a 2.5 war, but we've never really been given an opportunity to see his ceiling. Like, does he hit 27 home runs and walk 90 times like Tristan Casas? I'd like to see him play a season at first base if it's physically possible.
- [31:32]
A
I would have traded him last February as, as we argued about many times for one of those Seattle guys.
- [31:37]
B
That would have been the correct move. You know, another guy who can't stay on the field, but if he could. Marcelo Mayor showed us a lot defensively and he's got a great swing. You and I have been with him for years in Rotisserie, and we know he has trouble staying on the field, but if he could play second base trouble every day, that would be a huge upgrade, I assume.
- [32:05]
A
We drafted him. We had the first pick in the Alekeeper thing in the minors. We drafted him over Volpe, and I think every single year he's had the red flag next to his name on our team roster thing for at least, at least two months. Well, he never happened again.
- [32:21]
B
Yeah, he never makes it to the finish line.
- [32:23]
A
You know, my dad, I told you, my dad has given up on him. He's like, I just don't think he's ever going to be healthy. He's not shown us that he can be a durable baseball player. I have not given up on him.
- [32:31]
B
So, you know, hopefully that's not the case. Obviously the outfield of Roman, Sedan Willier and Duran in some combination in rotation is pretty good.
- [32:45]
A
What about Yoshida, who was the best hitter we had for the last five weeks of the season that we made fun of all through July.
- [32:52]
B
And then, and then if you, you know, story seems to have. He was great.
- [32:58]
A
He was.
- [32:58]
B
Had an incredible season, he was healthy. And you and I were just talking earlier about the Bregman thing, which is suddenly confusing and terrifying because.
- [33:07]
A
Explain that for the audience, because this seemed like he was going to opt out at the end of the year after he had this awesome season and then sign a bigger deal, but then he got hurt, comes back, and I'm not sure I want to sign to a bigger deal.
- [33:21]
B
So, you know, the Tigers thought they were getting Bregman because they offered him a six year deal at crazy money, and then the Red Sox offered him a three year deal for 120 million with the option to opt out, which is like, you know, you're gonna make 120 million, but you're also betting on yourself. Like it's a double whammy. You get. You get 120 million. But, you know, so he was so good right away that I was like, oh, we should give him the Tigers deal. Like, then he got hurt. Then he came back and he was excellent. Then he vanished. From August 22 on, he was like the second worst player in baseball. It was.
- [34:01]
C
He.
- [34:02]
B
He was. He couldn't. He could not drive the ball. And. And then, you know, Barrett, Brian Barrett was saying, if Meyer had been healthy, he could have played two days a week at third base and Bregman might have made it to the finish line. But it's like, well, you can't sign a guy to a six year extension if you're already thinking about how to play him five days a week.
- [34:25]
A
Well, you forgot the irony of this whole thing is that part of the reason that they traded Mookie Betts, which they were dumb enough to tell us when John Henry did the whole thing about these big free agent contracts, when these guys hit their 30s, they transform into, you know, a different level of player. So it's like, now you're just going to overpay Bregman. So it'll be interesting if they just completely do the opposite of why they traded Mookie Betts, which is still one of the worst trades in the history of Boston.
- [34:52]
B
You know, so now. So I was, I was against Bregman across the board when it was rumored, because I felt.
- [35:01]
A
It felt desperate. It just felt like they had struck out. They needed to do something so we wouldn't be mad at them.
- [35:06]
B
And I was looking at that baseball card and I was looking at, like, the year he knew what was coming versus the all the other years. And I was like, this is a decline phase in the making. We could get overtime in this, this game.
- [35:19]
A
Rams kickoff back to 30. Wow, this is some exciting podcasting right now. Of course, there's a flag.
- [35:26]
B
So I was kind of like, I was like this, I don't love this Bregman signing. And then I just had to shut up because he was incredible offensively.
- [35:34]
A
We were, we were like, in awe of how good he was that first.
- [35:38]
B
Five weeks and, and like an incredible.
- [35:40]
A
Leader and like, he was great defensively, great baserunner, everything the game to guys.
- [35:46]
B
Like, and so, you know, just such a great presence. But then watch. Watching him, you know, hit shallow fly balls for six weeks down the stretch was rough and not a great, not a great salary drive, like, you know, so I don't, you know, he, he had obviously had a huge hit in Game one. But yeah, it wasn't. It was. You didn't feel the confidence.
- [36:13]
A
He didn't, he didn't feel like the same guy.
- [36:15]
B
Ironically, you had a lot more confidence than Story. I mean, I, I always thought Story was going to hit the ball hard by the end of the season.
- [36:21]
A
And Yoshida, I think Duran is probably the trade piece because he's on a reasonably, reasonably good deal. I think they get a pitcher for him and they have other outfitters to play his position. Right?
- [36:38]
B
Yeah, I mean that we have, we have four outfielders for three spots. And the thing about Duran, he's so terrible against lefties. And if you're in a division and in a league where you're going to have to deal with Max Freed and Carlos or Don every year, what is the point of having this guy that you have to either not play at all or drop him way down in the order because he can't hit the two best pitchers on your rival. Like, his value shrinks. So, you know, you, you gotta go get somebody who can hit those two guys.
- [37:12]
A
He could play center for a bunch of teams. Like, it's not like, it's not like he couldn't help. So with the Rams, third and 10, now 30 seconds left.
- [37:20]
B
It's so weird because I, you know, I watched him play center field and he graded out very well and he didn't regularly drop balls in center field like that drop against the, the Yankees was, you know, he had like a bunch of those this year where he just gets kind of disoriented on his route to the ball and then gets there and doesn't finish the easiest part, catching a baseball with a baseball glove.
- [37:48]
A
So we had, we had eight, eight figure guys this year for money wise. Yoshida 18, Bregman 25, story 22 and a half, Chapman 10.8. They're bringing him back. G Lido 19, which I think triggered an option that he's in control of for next year. So he might become back. Matt's at 12.5, Jordan Hicks 12.5, couldn't make the playoff roster. The turd in the punch bowl, the Rockfield Devers trade, we do with him immediately. It was just 99 right down the middle and guys teeing off and then Bueller at 21 million who got waived. So.
- [38:29]
B
Wow, that there's a lot of poo poo platter.
- [38:32]
A
Well, so here are the Yankees. Cole 36, Radon 28, Freed 14 and a half, Goldie 12 and a half, McMahon 12, Nav Judge 40, Bellinger 27. And Stanton, 32, the contract that everybody said was too expensive. And meanwhile, he's fucking terrifying when you're going to play upstairs. It's a miracle when you get him out. You can't believe you escaped him.
- [38:55]
B
He hit 300 miles per hour worth of balls on consecutive swings. Like, yeah, that was foul. Was like 200 miles an hour. And then he hits one that he thinks is gone. And I don't like, I just don't know how a guy who can look that bad. It just feels like you could, you, you can bounce the ball up to him sometimes and he'll swing it anything. And then the playoff, the playoffs come around and, and it's like, nope, I'm. I'm only going to hit lasers.
- [39:21]
A
Well, so big picture with this Red Sox, Roman is the only thing that matters. Like, ultimately, like, we could talk about all this other stuff, but, you know, I, we didn't talk about him a lot on this podcast because I didn't want people to think I was a maniac. But we just were like in awe of how incredible he is. That was the best rookie season for the part that he played that I can remember since Nomar in 97, when Nomar would just come up and just hit these rockets time and time again, you're like, this guy's a rookie. And Anthony, I think was better than.
- [39:52]
B
Him because, you know, obviously he hit the 497foot home run in Worcester and it was like, oh my God, you know, get him up. Roy Hobbs is like, this is, this is mythical. This guy's coming. And then struggled out of the gate and was kind of like, all right, that's, that's what rookies usually do. Then clearly he figured it out. And then the three at bats that come to mind, which make it so depressing about how our season ended and how his season ended. But. So we're in Minnesota after the turbulent flight and they bring in Johan Duran, who's definitely going to get moved, but he throws 100 miles an hour with movement and Roman's unfazed. There's no pitcher he's phased by. He gets the game winning base hit off Duran. Then against the Astros, they bring in a lefty specialist who like hasn't given up a hit on his slider to a left handed batter all year. Roman goes off the base of the wall for the winning hit, you know, immediately on the pitch, no less.
- [40:56]
A
And we're texting when he's coming up like, Roman's gonna hit this guy. Roman's gonna hit this like, we don't.
- [41:00]
B
Care what the numbers are. We're. We're so confident in him. And then, of course, the greatest moment of our season, he takes Paul Skeens deep while Peyton Tolley's dad is being interviewed live. And Peyton Tolley's pitching a shutout, and he hits one off Skeens, like, who the fuck's Paul Skeens? I don't give a shit. And then Peyton told his dad is like, that ball's gone. And we're like, this, this. That moment that was obviously the peak of our season because then correlates totally come out for the six, then it all falls apart. And then Roman tears a muscle that didn't exist when Hank Aaron and Willie Mays were playing, but I don't get that part either. But anyway, so we've already seen that nobody dominates Roman Anthony, that there's no points once you're launching off Paul Skeins. There's nobody better than that. So he is, you know, the reason we're going to be so excited in March. Crochet is the guy. I mean, that, that performance where he gives up the home run to Volpe. And then he just said, well, that's it for you guys. That is it for you guys. 17 in a row are going down. And then Bayo made a big leap until he didn't. So he's probably a three or four guy.
- [42:12]
A
Kind of ran out of gas the last six weeks.
- [42:14]
B
I think early is going to be a three or four guy, you know, can how come back and be a three or four guy?
- [42:22]
A
Crawford come back. Those guys.
- [42:24]
B
But, you know, to your point, what.
- [42:26]
A
Will they spend money on a starter who's Max Freed this year? Can we get that guy?
- [42:31]
B
We need the second. We need the number two starter, you know, and it's like when you look at the, the bubble gum and matchsticks that we tried to put this roster together within the series against the Yankees, and then look at the Dodgers, who are like, okay, well, obviously Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani are never going to give up a run. But what do we do about the bullpen? And they go, oh, look in our garage, we have this 100 mile an hour, like, just laying around. Like we. Everyone forgot about him. It's like, oh, he throws 100. Let's have him go close out the series. It's like the Dodgers roster is so comically deep. You're just like, you know, his PA would be our best hitter. Like, he would have, he would have hit third in our Lineup in the Series.
- [43:16]
A
We used to spend money like that, though.
- [43:20]
B
Nobody spent money like that.
- [43:22]
A
Well, I mean, no, not money like the Dodgers, but we used to be in the, in the stratosphere where we would have an embarrassment of riches when we're.
- [43:29]
B
And we're so torn because we love Mookie eternally, because he's just the fucking greatest human being to ever play professional sports. And so we don't like it when he's got a.690 OPS and playing shortstop seems to be ruining his career.
- [43:45]
A
Yeah.
- [43:46]
B
And then the playoffs come and he's just hitting lasers all over the place.
- [43:50]
A
They're like, okay, well, big picture, we need the Yankees to lose just because that's what we need to begin with.
- [43:56]
C
But.
- [43:57]
A
But also, I'm a little worried about them next year because this Schlittner, I don't know, that was a pretty. It was. I know it gets our crappy lineup, but we were watching him the last two and a half months. He was throwing a hundred every time he pitched, and he just looked like, oh, this guy. They have something. And he's going to be their number four starter next year because Cole will be back at some point. They still have freed Cole Rodin. Schlitler is your number four.
- [44:26]
B
Is. Is terrifying.
- [44:27]
A
And are they keeping Bednar? They. They are, right? Because I think it's.
- [44:31]
B
You're right to be terrified.
- [44:33]
A
That is a.
- [44:33]
B
That is a terrifying rotation.
- [44:35]
A
Not to mention they still have, you know, they. Stanton and Judge are going to be back. They're going to have Jazz. By the way, that was another great thing about this series. Boone not playing Jazz in game one was like a gift. That guy's. I don't care if he's lefty or righty, I don't want him in the game. He does too many good things, even if he's not going to get a hit. So.
- [44:55]
B
And I mean, you know, in all the, all the things it took for us to lose a one run game last night, you know, Whitlock through Jazz change ups that everybody swings at. Like he's throwing these change ups. They were like, that looks like a strike for 59ft. And he just. On them, you're like, you can't throw a better pitch. You can't throw a change up. That's a strike that he'll hit it. So he lays off it, he walks, but we're still okay. Unless the count goes to 3, 2. And Wells hits the chalk. Right Then he scores by 6 inches. Like it was the nightmare of all the Things that had to go down for. For us to lose by one run. And. And it all happened. And that's.
- [45:41]
A
And who do you think is the best baseball team? You watch more of the other teams than I do.
- [45:46]
B
Well, I've been very high on the Mariners since they got all those guys.
- [45:51]
A
And you've. You.
- [45:53]
B
Because we got him in Roto.
- [45:55]
A
You've been, oh, Naylor, we're keeping him next year. Yeah, Naylor for 24 is happening. I mean, our Roto season came down to not going an extra dollar for Cal Rally and letting him go and then spending the money we would have spent on Cal Rally on Christian Campbell thinking he was going to be like the next guy. And he had a month and a half and was never seen again that April.
- [46:17]
B
That April may be unprecedented in baseball history. I mean, I'll let the Tim Kirchen's dig into it, but he just hit nothing but line drives for a month against major league pitching.
- [46:29]
A
And then we were comparing him to Mookie Betts. We were like, this is what Mookie was like when he was young. Just line drives.
- [46:35]
B
And then starting on May 1st, he did not hit a ball over 70 miles an hour.
- [46:40]
A
Yeah, the league figured out something with him and that was that. All right, give us your 32nd. The Patriots might win in Buffalo on Sunday night.
- [46:48]
B
Case, you know, I think that Bill's defense stinks like.
- [46:52]
A
And.
- [46:52]
B
And I think Drake May is good. So, you know, we. Our defense is not as good as I thought it would be. Obviously looked a lot better with. With our full complement of players, including Gonzo. But I think if the Bills, if we're within a score late, I think we could drive on that defense. And if. And if it's 3130, I hope variable goes for two.
- [47:18]
A
Well, we'll be talking about that on Ringer 107. My last question, the good son at the end when she's holding Macaulay Culkin and the other. And Elijah Wood and she doesn't have the strength to keep both and has to drop one of them.
- [47:30]
B
Oh, no.
- [47:31]
A
You're holding Drake, Drake May and Roman Anthony and you only have the strength to keep one. Who do you keep?
- [47:39]
B
Bye, Drake. Goodbye, Drake.
- [47:41]
A
I love you. Yeah. You love Roman Anthony.
- [47:43]
B
I love.
- [47:43]
A
I don't. Since we've known each other, I don't think. Not even Tatum. I think Roman Anthony is number one for you.
- [47:51]
B
He's one of one.
- [47:52]
A
He really is. I mean, he was like must watch. He. It was the first time in a couple years Where I was like going out of my way to watch at bats from a Red Sox sitter. I think Manny was probably the ortiz, I guess, 2013 range Ortiz. But Manny was the last one where I was like, I just don't want to miss a single pitch with this dude.
- [48:17]
B
And the way he carries himself, his interviews, he seems like he's from another time. He's just so gracious.
- [48:23]
A
I like his family. Yeah, parents are going every game. They just seem like good Hanks.
- [48:29]
B
Meanwhile, I'm like, you know, do I have to hold my breath every time he swings as hard as he can? Like, is this oblique something that's going.
- [48:36]
A
To, you know, we didn't have these obliques and Achilles when we were growing up with sports. It was my day. Yeah. People would just blow out their knee every once in a while. All right, Kevin Hench, great to see you as always. Can't wait to figure out our Ale keeper team with you over the course of the winter as we debate on Schlittner for $19. He wrote this in. He's definitely. We're going to keep him. And it'll probably. It'll probably put some sort of curse on him.
- [48:58]
B
Would you go back in time and kill baby Slitler?
- [49:06]
A
See Edge?
- [49:07]
B
All right, brother.
- [49:08]
A
All right. We're recording this before Rams Niners. So whatever happens in that game, we don't know it happened. Happening in the future. Ringer107 also happening in the future. We're going to come up with some picks. We did okay last week. I felt like it could have been better. I wanted to throw some October odd stuff at you. Just that stuff I noticed on FanDuel. Like Josh Allen now being a minus odds for MVP, he's minus 105. Feels early for that. And yet I couldn't come up with somebody I liked. My Herbert 6 to 1 Mahomes is plus 650. Nobody else has really emerged. But do you agree with Allen having minus MVP odds? No.
- [49:46]
C
But they have this incredible schedule in front of them. It's really hard to go through the Buffalo schedule and find losses. And if they end up 14 and three, you know, it seems like everybody else, the Chiefs look like they're fine, but they like a 12 and 5 team. The Rams. The one that does kind of intrigue me is Matthew Stafford. Now, I'll knock on wood right now.
- [50:10]
A
Yeah.
- [50:11]
C
You know, he will have played that. It will have results from that game when people are hearing this.
- [50:16]
A
But how about Drake May at 70 to 1 nothing.
- [50:20]
C
Come on, man. Drake. Drake.
- [50:22]
A
Maybe Nothing at all?
- [50:23]
C
No, thank you. No, thank you.
- [50:24]
A
Are you in the Drake maybe camp?
- [50:26]
C
No. I do expect a really good game from him out of this Buffalo. This is a great referendum on Drake. Maybe. Let's see. Let's see it.
- [50:34]
A
He's Drake definitely. For me, some division odds that jumped out to me. AFC North Pittsburgh still plus 185. And taping this on a Thursday afternoon, who knows if Lamar is playing or not. They're claiming he might try to play against Houston this week, but Pittsburgh +185 still feels mildly enticing. It feels like they can get to 9 and 8. I'm not betting it, but I just thought the odds would be lower. Do you notice that one?
- [50:59]
C
Yeah, I'm looking at it. I don't know what to do. It's a stay away to me because.
- [51:05]
A
Because Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback and they can be one and three. It's still.
- [51:09]
C
It's still. Baltimore can rip off, you know, 10 wins in a row and then they're.
- [51:15]
A
They're decimated though. I mean, this is. They. They. There's this imaginary point that you can pass during the NFL season with injuries and it feels like they've either passed it or they're really close. But on the other hand, Lamar and Josh are the two guys that you feel like they can win nine to 10 in any situation. I guess we'll find out. Plus 185 seemed a little high considering the Baltimore injury stuff. Houston AFC south plus 650. They were minus 110 before the season. If they beat Baltimore this week, they'd be 2 and 3. And if you're playing it out like Jacksonville loses to KC on Monday night, Houston beats Baltimore Indy. You know, they're probably winning this week against the Raiders, but they'd be 4 and 1. But at least the the Texans would get to play them again. Plus 650 seemed high. You surprised by that?
- [52:02]
C
It's worth a little taste just because of that defense, but honest to God, I like getting the Colts at even money. I think the Colts are legit.
- [52:13]
A
I think you're right because they should have won last week. They had two, two touchdowns that got called back. This is my favorite and sadly I can't do it because I have so much money in them already from June, July, August. But Denver plus 460 to win the AFC West. And the case would be you also have to expect them to beat Philadelphia this week. That would be the upset for week five to move to three and two. But there's some really good advanced metrics with them. They lost two games. They easily could have won and you could argue that they blew. And their defense is good. And I think they have a top five running game right now, at least by the stats. And there's the bonix issue. But Plus4Sixty seemed high to me. House.
- [52:56]
C
Well, it's basically you're gambling on Bo Nix. Like that feels like the right amount of return on the risk of Bo Nix. Let's see him go on the road and beat a playoff team just once.
- [53:09]
A
So you're gambling on Bo Knicks. You get to feel like Sean Payton because that's been the last two years of his life. He's like, oh, I'm Sean Payton right now. The Chargers losing alt for definitely this week, maybe next week. And just how much pressure Herbert was under the last couple weeks, which they've talked about, you know, all the articles are about that can't happen anymore. We can't have him being hit like that. But look, man, what are you going to do? You only have so many hits before something bad happens with one of the hits. NFC North Atlantis plus 2 90. This would be more of a Tampa Bay losing this week and continuing to just have injuries. Kind of hedge. I thought the price is pretty good. 3 to 1. They're not playing this week. But, but more, more a little hedge against Tampa and some stuff that's happening at some. I'm not doing it, I'm just flagging it.
- [53:59]
C
Yeah. I already have a preseason on Atlanta just on the theory that, that you know, Tampa wouldn't stay healthy the whole season. That was really it in the preseason. I, I got it.
- [54:10]
A
You do a flyer on Atlanta.
- [54:11]
C
I feel like every August maybe, I don't know, I mean 9 and 8, 9 and 8 could, could win that division yet.
- [54:19]
A
Yeah. Well, here's my favorite NFC West. Seattle's plus 360. Still the odds and the respect for them has just not been there all year. Wasn't there before the year, it's not there now. They're number one in DVOA house through four weeks.
- [54:35]
C
Yeah. So this, this game, this week, them hosting Tampa is, is speaking of referendum games. Let's see it. Let's like, you know, that's a good team. Even though Tampa is beat up, you know they, they should hold serve at home. The line is fair. So if we, if we see them handle their business against Tampa, if that defense is gonna be too late, the.
- [54:57]
A
Plus 3 60, you gotta basically gamble on them beating Tampa.
- [55:01]
C
I understand. I'm just saying you're, you're the gamble is them making a leap over the ramps and so we got Rams night.
- [55:09]
A
Or somebody's losing that game today. So somebody's going to three and two and then the Cardinals who lost their second string running back and are now down their third string running back and they're like 28th passing. You know, I think that feels like a possible crater. I like that. Plus360. I think Seattle's good some some conference odds. Buffalo still plus 180. Casey's plus 460. Denver would be the long shot probably at 16 to 1. I think that's a pretty fair price of the talent. And then in the NFC Philly plus 290. Detroit plus 440. Green Bay plus 480. Seattle 17 to 1. Is there any team you're interested in other than those seven? From an odd standpoint, Kansas City at.
- [55:51]
C
That price is remarkable to me. It feels like an autoplay must play go do it. What's that going to be if and when they take care of business against Jacksonville this weekend?
- [56:02]
A
Right. And they got Rice coming back week seven and I agree with you, I the jumped out to me yeah, that could be plus 220 by Monday morning.
- [56:15]
C
Right.
- [56:16]
A
And then I still like the Seattle 17 to 1. I'm not saying they're going to make the super bowl, but I just think those odds are pretty good. The Rams 6 to 1. I wanted to see a Rams number that made me go oh and I think the people have already betted it's already priced in. And then just from a long shot standpoint there's really nothing And I think at this point I don't think we're going to see anybody over the 17:1 range. Even the Jags, which you say oh the Jags maybe throw. They're only 15 to 1 to win the AFC. There's not even real value in that and everybody else is too far. Houston27 1. I wish I liked their team more. All right, let's we're going to hit. We're going to do Ringer 107 but as always we do the do the stay aways. So last week we went 3 and 2 in Ringer 107 and I really feel like we had a good week and the mistake was just not assuming something stupid was going to happen in the Sunday night game. Green Bay, Dallas, everyone was on Green Bay. Everybody had Mentezer parlay. The favorites had been winning nonstop for four weeks and I don't have regrets but I guess that was the mistake. I still don't know how they give up 40 points to Dallas without CD lamp.
- [57:32]
C
The mistake was us gambling on Carson fucking Wentz. That was the mistake on the Sunday morning game. That's a mistake. That's what we did. It was a mistake.
- [57:41]
A
And you, you brought it up. You said this is just for the record, a 9:30 ET game that we're wagering on. We shouldn't do this. And I plowed ahead. So we're staying away this time. It's Browns, Vikings, Browns plus three and a half. I actually, if this was a normal game, I would probably want to bet the Browns because I think their defense could just win this. Minnesota's offense, they're 32nd and sacks 31st and QB hits that just suck in general. And then the Browns first and run fourth and pass first yards per play. They're second in dvoa. Like it feels like the defense might win it by himself. I'm excited for Dylan Gabriel. I thought Flacco looked terrible. Here's why you don't bet Cleveland, a rookie QB in his first start in a 9:30 overseas game. That is what I talked about when FanDuel sends you the automatic alert when you're trying to make the bet. And Fandor's just like, hey, just so you know.
- [58:35]
C
Well, and not only that it's against a Brian, Brian Flores defense. It's like it's also a defense that's going to blitz him half the time.
- [58:42]
A
Yeah, I mean they are missing a couple linebackers. You could feel it last week with no Van Genko.
- [58:47]
C
I think they're going to run the, the, the Cleveland game plan. This, you know, it's a, it's an under. I think it's the lowest total on the board. It's like in the 34 and a half range or something. And this has all, all the makings of a 14 to 7 game or a 10 to 7 game.
- [59:00]
A
Right. And the under almost seems too easy.
- [59:03]
C
I, I don't think it feels seems too easy. Who's going to score?
- [59:06]
A
I don't know.
- [59:07]
C
And what are the circumstances?
- [59:09]
A
Well, for Minnesota, Carson Wentz overseas with a banged up offensive line and a depleted Minnesota front seven and 9:30 overseas game. That's also a FanDuel alert. Stay away. So we're staying away. Chargers. Washington Chargers minus two and a half at home. I wrote Ratline in all caps.
- [59:26]
C
Oh, wow. Okay.
- [59:28]
A
The Chargers we were talking about as a Super bowl contender a week ago. Your team doesn't have McLaren. It's got Daniels in a, in a playing with a knee brace. Yeah, I to me just to stay away. I don't know how long Herbert can stay healthy, but what Interestingly, Washington is fifth in DVOA and the Chargers are 10th. But what do you expect, Washington fan?
- [59:51]
C
I do think that Washington's defense is going to play better than they played against Atlanta on the road last week.
- [59:58]
A
Yeah.
- [59:59]
C
But the problem is it's too much uncertainty to try and make a wager on what the hell's going to happen here because, you know, Jaden Daniels in a knee brace. The receiver room continues to be, you know, a mess. And you know, the defense has to come up with an identity. They have to be able to stop the run because that's what how the Chargers are going to try and establish themselves. So it's a stay away. I'm rooting very hard. It's a good opportunity for Washington to go beat a good team on the road. So I do think the odds are decent.
- [60:34]
A
What do you think the Washington fan base in LA on Sunday?
- [60:38]
C
Oh, I think there's a big contingent. We know a bunch of them. Yeah, I think that's another vocal. Yeah, for sure.
- [60:44]
A
Yeah. That might be worth a half point. All right. We're staying away regardless. I don't know what to make of the Chargers with these. Both of these tackles out. I just don't want to bet on on their offense. Cowboys. Jets. Cowboys - 2 1/2 at the Jets. This is the sell high buy low game of the week.
- [61:00]
C
Yes.
- [61:00]
A
Where Cowboys looking great. Oh yeah. They can put the ball on anyone. And then the jets just couldn't have looked worse. And I will stay away. I was leaning jets for a second. And then that stat that keeps popping up about how fields is owing 25 when the other team scores 21 plus points. Dallas can score 21 plus points. So I if this was three, if.
- [61:23]
C
Dallas was favored by three, I'd be making a really passionate argument on the Jets.
- [61:28]
A
Three and a half would be a real conversation, right?
- [61:31]
C
Yes, for sure. The two and a half is not enough. Dallas coming off of a Sunday night game where they played 70 minutes the 16 and then every, every, every last second of the overtime. Yeah, and, and, and Dax, the splits for Dak outdoors versus indoors and blah blah, blah, blah, blah.
- [61:50]
A
Did you see that stat? When that happens, the team's like, oh, the underdog in the game is like own four. In the next week, Fields had a classic Monday night game where you're just completely out. You're like this Guy has no chance. This guy just cannot complete passes and then he has the 45 yard fourth and one awesome run. You're like Fields. Oh, maybe there's something here. I think that's just going to be his whole career. Then the other stay away is Cards minus eight and a half at home against the Titans. I would make the case. Arizona should not be favored by eight and a half over anyone in the league, even their schedule, which was easy so far. Saints won by 7, Panthers won by 5, lost to the Niners by 1 when the Niners are missing a bunch of guys, then lost the Seahawks by three last week and now they're on their third string running back. So I don't think they could protect leads. And yet I'm never taking the Titans. That, that Titans their streak against the spread, what is it? 3 and they're 3 and 18.
- [62:49]
C
3 and 18 since Tommy boy Callahan has, has taken the helm there. So you know, the only thing to do ever is to bet against the Titans on the line. But I mean we can't, we can't countenance the Cardinals by pay some, pay.
- [63:07]
A
Some respect to the 3 and 18. Then. What an incredible record.
- [63:12]
C
Where have we been? That's my question.
- [63:14]
A
Where the hell have we been Setting these odds so that they're the conceivably we'll have action both ways and they're 3 and 18.
- [63:22]
C
Here's the thing, they're. They're really 2 and 19 because they get credit for the fact that the line moved a full point from the summer into the actual beginning of the game in that first game of the season against Denver. So they get, they're getting credit for covering a spread because Denver won by eight or whatever it was rather than eight and a half. But that line was seven and seven and a half all summer long.
- [63:43]
A
That, that's how just happened. Did you swipe your nose?
- [63:46]
C
I did, I did.
- [63:47]
A
Are you sick?
- [63:49]
C
I need a little hot water worth of lemon.
- [63:53]
A
Don't knock it till you tried it.
- [63:55]
C
I could have used some.
- [63:56]
A
Yeah, I'm having some right now.
- [63:59]
C
I was at Beth Page Black this weekend and I'm a little hoarse from yelling all my fus at Rory. You know, it didn't work, but here I am soldiering, cheering for Rory.
- [64:12]
A
They had all of our favorite golfers.
- [64:14]
C
I'm making a joke. It's. I obviously bet heavily on the Euros.
- [64:18]
A
Yeah, you were cheering. You were cheering for Rory and yelling your support to him and telling the fans to leave him alone.
- [64:24]
C
I was saying f you new Yorkers.
- [64:26]
A
My favorite was when you pretended you didn't bet on on Europe. You did this bit on Ringer podcast you were like I wouldn't necessarily bet this because I want us to win. I'm so you bet. You told me how many times you bet this.
- [64:40]
C
I said that I bet it. I just said that. That doesn't make me any less of a patriot.
- [64:46]
A
Here is a new category called getting three free points and yet it's still a stay away. These games include the Saints plus one and a half against the Giants. I don't know how they're not favored. They're home. They actually can move the ball. The Giants don't have neighbors. I don't know what's good about the Giants. Aaron shots had a thing they the Giants have the worst run defense by DVOA through four games since 1979 they've allowed 6.1 yards per carry. And guess what the Saints like to do. Run the ball and get first downs. Taysom Hill maybe back and yet I'm not going near the Saints. I'm not. I can't as you know. I don't like betting a two terrible teams game. Well that's what this is.
- [65:33]
C
The problem is it keeps bouncing back and forth. The Saints right now are minus one and a half.
- [65:38]
A
Does that move again?
- [65:39]
C
Yes, it just keeps moving. So it's a definite stay away any anything where those one and a half flip they've been losers so far this season. The Raiders was one and the and the Ravens were the other one so far this season where the ones and one and a halfs are flipping across the line.
- [65:55]
A
I think there's a scenario where the Saints actually kill the Giants.
- [65:58]
C
I don't disagree one bit. Maybe that's disagree I don't disagree.
- [66:03]
A
All right. I just outed up house.
- [66:04]
C
Yeah.
- [66:05]
A
The Saints to win by 13 and a half is 5 to 1. Saints minus 13 out 5 to 1 Saints minus 19 and a half 10.
- [66:14]
C
To 1 no, can't do that.
- [66:17]
A
They're just blowing out the Giants. It's like a 30 to 6 no and Jackson dart looks terrible kind of game. I don't know. I won't be putting any money on the normal spread. Colts, Raiders, Colts minus six and a half Colts cornerback situation in shambles and it's a kitchen sink game for the Raiders and they're getting three. They're getting three extra points. Well I'm just saying that see it's a season's over if we lose this one game so they're bringing out all the stops. You don't think the season's over?
- [66:48]
C
Well, I do think the season's over because I think the Raiders suck.
- [66:52]
A
I mean, you think it's already over?
- [66:54]
C
It's already over. And I'm not ready to just move past this game in terms of things we might consider for our card.
- [67:00]
A
Yeah. All right. God damn. I'll mark it. I wrote down in my notes Gino Smith and Pete Carroll the worst reunion since De Niro and Pacino and Righteous Kill. Did you ever see Righteous Kill? It's really bad.
- [67:13]
C
Not familiar with that one.
- [67:15]
A
It sucks because we get older, we forget stuff. I think it sucked me in three times on cable over the last 15 years. Like, ah, Denier and Pacino. I'll give it a chance and it's just horrible.
- [67:24]
C
I feel like there's some worse reunions than that. We can come up. We can do better.
- [67:28]
A
Oh, how about this? Watch Righteous Kill and then decide whether. Whether I'm right. All right, I'll mark that down because apparently you are intrigued. From a parlay standpoint, I'm guessing Panthers. Dolphins. Panthers plus one and a half was the move. This is the official super bowl, right?
- [67:47]
C
It is the Super Bowl. Yes, sir.
- [67:48]
A
Is this the worst game we can have without Tyreek Hill?
- [67:52]
C
Let's think. What is the worst game? Well, Tennessee would have to be involved. The worst game we can have. But yeah, you're right.
- [68:00]
A
No Tyreek. Dolphins played Monday. Panthers coming off a blowout loss and already the Bryce Young Whispers are starting again. Watch out, Andy Dalton. Just go Uber for the next few weeks. People are worried. Lions. Bengals is the other one. Lions minus ten and a half at Cincinnati. This is just way too high. I just automatically, if a home dog is getting more than 10 points in our picks poll, I'm just taking them. Yeah, it's at least three free Cincy points. On paper, they're coming off a horrible loss and Detroit's having a cornerback crisis. They're. They're just running out of cornerbacks completely. And yet I'm not taking Cincy. The. It's funny. They're two and two. It feels like they're minus one and five. Well, that's when I.
- [68:48]
C
Go ahead. No, I was just saying that's because we've seen two and a half games of Jake Browning and it feels like that's Days of our Lives that we can't get back.
- [68:57]
A
I have all the Team Reddit pages bookmarked and I zoom through there on Thursday mornings as I have my coffee just to see what their Fans are saying, oh, no. By far. Cincy has the funniest Reddit page of all the team Reddit pages.
- [69:13]
C
Oh, congrats to Cincy. They win something.
- [69:16]
A
They had seven or eight different pictures of that photo of, of their offensive line blocking a three man rush where the two guys are going around the tackles and four guys are blocking the guy in the middle and the two guys are going around the tackles. They're about sack the quarterback and it's just all these different jokes about it. They're talking about, you know, boycotting the home game, doing chance. They're so fucking pissed that, that they had this borough T. Higgins chase thing and then decided not to give them an offensive line, which anybody who is watching from afar is like, what are these guys doing? The Cincy fans are mad and they have a cheap owner who doesn't really spend that much money.
- [69:57]
C
That's the thing. That's the thing that they have every right to be mad about. And the, the constant mismanagement, the institutional mismanagement of the franchise is, is appalling. It reminds me of what happened here in Washington. Although we never had anybody as good as Joe BURROW for the 20 plus years that the, the, the, the devil was the owner.
- [70:19]
A
The devil.
- [70:19]
C
Wow.
- [70:21]
A
Strong takes from Joe House. All right, we're going to take a break and then we're going to do Ringer1:07 and try to figure out our picks. All right, possibles for Ringer 107. Seahawks bucks mentioned earlier. Seahawks first in DVOA. This is a Darnold versus Baker. Nobody can get revenge for the Carolina situation because they were both miserable game. Tampa's D is really banged up. Yeah, missing a bunch of D backs. You look at their injury report? Just out. Questionable. Questionable. Didn't practice. This just seems like a bad spot for them. And again that Seattle defense. Six first, the run second yards per play fourth and hits and hurries. Tampa had some trouble blocking for Baker. That Philly game was pretty fluky. They were way, way down in Philly. They had the classic. They're wilting in the Tampa heat.
- [71:12]
C
Yep.
- [71:13]
A
Tampa coming. It was. You just kind of knew what was happening as it was happening. And Philly holds on for the win. I really like the spot. I Wish this was 2 1/2, but Seahawks -3 is one of my favorites.
- [71:23]
C
We have to play it. It's an autoplay on Seattle. The crazy thing is, have you ever seen a -3 at -1 24?
- [71:30]
A
You see how much you choose.
- [71:31]
C
You have to lay -124 on FanDuel right now to get the -3. But you know what? It's worth it. Bucky Irving. Have we heard the MRI results yet? Do we. I mean, he's did a walkthrough.
- [71:44]
A
He's another question, Bo. And he's been awesome.
- [71:46]
C
He's awesome. If they don't have him, that's the bridge too far. And I honestly, if they don't have.
- [71:51]
A
Him, this should be like -4 and.
- [71:52]
C
A half and maybe it'll move in that direction. So we're very lucky to get the minus three. I don't expect Bucky Irving to play. In fact, I've already benched him and in our Guillotine League because I, you know, the. The deadline to create your roster is Wednesday night. And if you don't set it for. By Wednesday night here, you're. You're. You're fucked until, you know, until anyway.
- [72:15]
A
Okay. Lot. Lot of jokes about our Guillotine League app Monday. Narrative alert. Are the Seahawks genuinely good? Could the Seahawks make the Super Bowl? I just. I feel like this would be the game. They're on the radar. No, I'm talking Monday, not can they.
- [72:37]
C
Make the super bowl, but they're 11:10.
- [72:39]
A
On Monday on ESPN. Somebody will say it.
- [72:42]
C
There'll be respect. There'll be heightened respect for Seattle.
- [72:45]
A
All right, we're marking down Seahawks.
- [72:47]
C
That's a. That's a lock.
- [72:49]
A
Next one I marked down was Broncos plus four and a half at Philly. This line feels like it should be Philly by three.
- [72:58]
C
That would be fine. I would be totally fine if it was Philly by three. I know that we will continue to confer respect upon the Denver defense. Except the Denver defense had a chance to close out the Chargers in LA with four minutes left in the game. And they let the Chargers drive twice. And the Chargers scored a touchdown and a game winning field goal. And I just cannot in good conscience endorse betting on Bo Nicks on the road. Like, go have a tremendous game and prove it and like, just jam it in my face. Jam it in my face. Bo Nicks. Just take it.
- [73:39]
A
Put.
- [73:39]
C
Put it right in my face.
- [73:41]
A
Please don't cut this out as a video Internet. No, please do. Please do.
- [73:45]
C
Begging you to put it in suspension. Stick it to me. But I gotta see it. I gotta see it one time. One time from Bo Nicks. I won't do it. I mean, Jalen Carter's banged up, Philly's out of rhythm. Their offense is. Yeah, like, there's all this stuff that says That's a good number. You should play that number because it should be about a field goal. But Fuck that.
- [74:08]
A
Denver's ninth in DVOA. Phillies 12th. Phillies defense 21st against the run. Denver's the first in sacks and hits ninth against the pass. Yeah, if they're for real, it starts this week. I asked Shield Capati, our colleague host of Philly Special, knows the Eagles inside and out.
- [74:29]
C
Yep.
- [74:31]
A
I was like, why isn't this line of Eagles minus two and a half, Eagles minus three. He said 18 straight wins when hurts starts and finishes a game. Feels like they can't be less than a 3.5 favorite at home unless they play the Bills. Their defense played awesome last week. Looked like last year. Could put Knicks in a blender.
- [74:47]
C
Those are all great points.
- [74:49]
A
It's our guy, Shield have to agree with Shield.
- [74:51]
C
Capadia there.
- [74:53]
A
I'm still marking. I'm not going to put it in both.
- [74:55]
C
All right. All right.
- [74:56]
A
Texans Ravens in Baltimore. Texans minus one and a half. No Lamar. We're guessing and if it is a Lamar, it'll be a compromise. Not moving around that well. Lamar, which is not a Lamar I'm excited about. Defense decimated. I mean, it's comical how bad it's been so far. The year from hell is now lingering and Houston's 1 and 3. I do like their defense.
- [75:24]
C
Yes.
- [75:24]
A
There's a guy in their team that I have on two of my fantasy teams. Woody Marks.
- [75:29]
C
Oh, wow. Congratulations to you.
- [75:31]
A
Backup running back. I picked him up. He just played a couple plays and it was one of those immediate, like, whoa, who's that?
- [75:39]
C
Yes, yes.
- [75:40]
A
And they unlocked, unleashed him a little bit last week, and I think he's a game changer for them.
- [75:44]
C
I agree with you.
- [75:45]
A
He makes dudes miss. And they went from having a running back situation that I absolutely hated to one that I feel pretty good about. I also think this could be a CJ Stroud, like CJ Stroud in our Guillotine League was on the waiver wire and I was like, I'm just out of principle picking him up. I have Jake Browning on my team, but if he was ever going to have a big week, this is the week. Texans minus one half in Baltimore. What do you think?
- [76:12]
C
I really want to play the Texans. Like, if you look at the losses they had, they lost by five to the Rams on the road in their opener. They had a Baker last second pull it out of his butt in week two at home one, they had the game one.
- [76:29]
A
They had a Baker had a four. Was it fourth and ten, fourth and twelve.
- [76:32]
C
Right. Exactly right. And they were driving to tie the game against the Jaguars on the road at Jacksonville. CJ did throw a bad pick in that game that clinched it for the Jags, but they aren't far away. They are. They played three teams that I think will look back and I think all three of the teams they lost to are playoff teams this year.
- [76:52]
A
Yeah.
- [76:54]
C
And then they went and handled their business against Tennessee. I think you're right that the missing ingredient with that Houston offense has been a running back with, with any kind of. Of burst. And remember last year when they had mixing it was a radically different offense. Like the splits between that offense with Joe Mixon versus without. So if Woody Marks is 75% of Joe Mixon. But really what we're betting on here is is Cooper Rush and that Houston defense against Cooper Rush and they basically that's one thing.
- [77:30]
A
And then how bad the Baltimore defense is. I mean this. I don't understand why this line isn't Houston by three. This is like a name only spread at this point when they're missing as many guys as they are.
- [77:43]
C
It might get there.
- [77:45]
A
It's really crazy. Sports Illustrated 5 hours ago Woody Marks is quietly becoming NFL star thanks to touchdown surgeon. Here we go, starting to get some press down the Texans, Patriots, Bills, Patriots plus eight and a half. That was the line that we have to work with for Ringer107. I'm just telling you, I think they can hang in this game. I've obviously watched every play of the Patriots. I think they're going to be able to move the ball in that Buffalo defense and the backdoor cover is in play of even if the Buffalo's up by 14. But I think the Pats, I think they're pretty good. I know they beat Panther, Carolina last week and Carolina stinks. I get it. But they, they've been moving the ball multiple weeks like they moved the ball against Pittsburgh for the last three quarters of that game. And, and I think Mays, I, I don't know this Sunday night spot for them with Vrabel as the coach kind of understanding what that means. This is a kitchen sink game for them. I thought they were intentionally a little bit vanilla last week. There's some wrinkles in there. There's digs coming back to Buffalo and I don't think Buffalo's looked that good this season. The most exciting game they had all year was beating Baltimore. And then like after week four, do we feel that great about lighting up Baltimore? I thought the Saints were Hanging around with them in a really disturbing way last week. So the eight and a half just seems high to me. I don't know what the right line would be, maybe seven. But eight and a half is a lot of points and I think we should grab them.
- [79:20]
C
Yeah, I don't disagree and I'm not doing this because we're pals and because of Patriots.
- [79:27]
A
You love to make fun of me when, when we take the pass.
- [79:29]
C
Well, and I have, you know, at the outset of the season, we have a bet that Washington is going to end up with two more wins than the Patriots over the course of the season. So it's not like I'm heavily invested in the Patriots. This is just a bet. Like, you know, who agrees with you that they're. The Patriots can move the ball and score Vegas. This is the highest total on the board at 49 and a half and there were 50s out there over the course of the week. It's just a point and a half too many points. And, and you know, you're. Buffalo can win by margin. We've seen it. But not against an offense like, like what the Patriots are able to bring to, to the table here. So I like the idea of, you know, the extra one and a half points if, you know, that would the way. That's the way I would handicap it. So I like, I like this. I do like the Patriots getting eight and a half.
- [80:17]
A
I don't think Buffalo has enough of a pass rush to force May to make some of the mistakes he's made. I think they've intentionally not had him use his legs that much because they're saving him for games like this. Not to compare him to Mahomes by any stretch, but those big games for the Chiefs when Mahomes actually uses his legs and has like the 10, 11 rushes, I think May, those plays are in there and they haven't. They've been intentionally holding him back. When he's moving around, he turns the corner as well as any quarterback of the kind of 25 and under generation. Like, he flies around that corner and takes these hard angles and the pass rushers can't get him. There's a parlay here where we could take the pats up to 11 and a half on FanDuel with the over of 37 and a half if you wanted to even get more points out of this. So I'm just flagging that one as well.
- [81:10]
C
That would be our little parlay thing.
- [81:13]
A
If we want to do that. Or we could just man up and take the Pat straight up. And then the last one is Chiefs Jags In Jacksonville, Chiefs -3 DBOA, advanced metrics all around the same except the Jags played the Panthers, the Bengals, the Texans and the 49ers and probably should have lost the Texans game or had a chance to. And you could also say they could have beaten the Bengals and they could be 40 right now. I think my case here is I think Jacksonville is the good bad team. I think they're just going to beat the other bad teams.
- [81:51]
C
I like this.
- [81:52]
A
I think this step is a step too high for them. Playing on a Monday night at home with a big crowd and the Chiefs really starting to figure out who they are and with a little more speed. And I just don't want to take Trevor Lawrence against Mahomes.
- [82:08]
C
Nor do I.
- [82:10]
A
Chiefs minus three seems like a nice fun one on Monday, don't you think that gets to three and a half by Monday night.
- [82:16]
C
Probably. Yep. I'm comfortable with this. And it's already it's minus 118 right now. The 3 is so wouldn't be surprised to see it jump.
- [82:25]
A
All right, well we only have four bets here. So what is your make your Colts case?
- [82:31]
C
It's really a Raiders case. We keep saying, you know the game. The spot that the Raiders were supposed to show us they were going to be competitive this year was at home against the fucking Bears. After they went on the road and laid a giant egg against the Chargers on Monday night and then went to Washington and laid another egg, we said oh okay, well let's let this is a get right spot for the Raiders. They're going to come home and you know they'll move the ball. They move the ball at will against that Bears defense. They ran the ball up and down as the first Ashton Genti good game. You know what else they did? They put the effing ball in the other hands teams five times when they were on their side. The other the Bears side of the 55 times they did it. That is. Who is that?
- [83:17]
A
That's righteous. Kill Daenery Pacino. It's Gino and Pete Carroll.
- [83:23]
C
An unholy reunion.
- [83:26]
A
Worst reunions ever.
- [83:27]
C
Why if we. If we think this Colts thing is legit at all. What. Why are we afraid of the idea Geno has thrown into and I haven't had a chance to sit down and do any of like the real deep pff. You know, deeper than turnover worthy. Like you know where you go into the windows that he's throwing into. But it's as though he doesn't see defenders. He's not colorblind. He's linebacker blind because he keeps seeing things that aren't there.
- [83:57]
A
And can I give you the Bill Simmons DVOA for Gino?
- [84:00]
C
Let's hear it.
- [84:01]
A
Sucky, sucky. Not just the seven interceptions, but Salem passes. I thought that Monday night game against the Chargers, the Chargers were dying to let them back in that game, remember? And he was just missing wide open. Guys, he really just looks like he's not himself. I mean. So are you thinking parlay for this potentially?
- [84:21]
C
I don't know. We. We haven't. We. We came up with four bets thus far that don't have any. Anything exotic about them. Right. They're all sides that we like.
- [84:31]
A
Right. So would you go over with this?
- [84:33]
C
What about a moneyline parlay of.
- [84:36]
A
With the. Over the. The.
- [84:38]
C
Well, I don't know. I don't. Oh, we have to. We can't. We can't moneyline parlay with another team.
- [84:43]
A
No.
- [84:43]
C
Okay.
- [84:44]
A
Oh, no, we could. We definitely could. Why? What team are you thinking?
- [84:51]
C
Well, it would be the Rams. My favorite play of the week. I have so much money.
- [84:54]
A
The Rams is happening four hours from now. We can't do that.
- [84:57]
C
It'll be hilarious when people hear this. And you know, somehow San Francisco beat the Rams because that is by far my favorite bet on the board.
- [85:05]
A
I can promise you that's not going to happen. What about. What's. What's a number for alternate total points that would get your attention. Alternate total points, 41 and a half.
- [85:20]
C
Like an over for that. See, my problem is I don't want.
- [85:25]
A
42 and a half get 43 points.
- [85:28]
C
See, I don't want to mess with the total because what if the Raiders only score 14 points.
- [85:36]
A
With the Colts cornerback situation. The Colts had a guy who played, I think most of the game, Xavier Howard. Last week he retired. He deserved to retire. Starting quarterback retired and I guess that's a bleak situation.
- [85:50]
C
He made the right call. It was a good decision by him.
- [85:54]
A
The only reason I noticed him was he was the guy running after the guy who was wide open four times a game in the Colts game. So I think it was a good move.
- [86:04]
C
Here's what I'm going to propose. Let me see if it works out.
- [86:06]
A
Numbers, by the way, this game's in Indianapolis.
- [86:08]
C
I know, I'm aware. Like the Raiders are going to go on the road. This is. This feels fair to me.
- [86:13]
A
I know, but this is. I said this to Sal on Sunday night, though. This is the fear with the Raiders is. Geno isn't really comfortable until he's a big dog ready to mess up some teases and parlays for people. That's why he fit. That's when he feels the most comfortable. He doesn't want to be a favorite.
- [86:30]
C
Well, that's why I'm suggesting all we do is play the Colts on the money line. Let me see if I can get you to agree to the Colts and the eagles together. That's minus 107. That's a moneyline parlay. It's square. I'm acknowledging that it's square, but I'll. I'll take it. I already told Bo Nix to stick it in my face. And then it would be Geno going on the road and beating Bo Daniel Jones, which sounds hilarious, except he's been really good.
- [86:59]
A
Colts, Eagles minus 107.
- [87:02]
C
Yeah, we don't have to do it. And I don't. I don't.
- [87:06]
A
Well, you listen. We do Ringer 107. I get two picks. We share two picks, and then you get your own pick. You could just make this your own pick.
- [87:14]
C
Okay, this is my pick. I'm willing to live with it. I'll take the. The. All the ridicule. I'm sure.
- [87:19]
A
Willing to live with that.
- [87:20]
C
I'm sure that it's square.
- [87:22]
A
Okay.
- [87:23]
C
I don't care. I don't care.
- [87:24]
A
Let.
- [87:25]
C
Let Bo next.
- [87:26]
A
I'm willing to live with it.
- [87:27]
C
Let. Let Bo next go beat the Eagles and let Gino go into Indianapolis and beat Indiana Jones.
- [87:34]
A
All right, today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by our friends at FanDuel, who also sponsors our Ringer Sunday pregame show. Yeah, you can watch houses on that one. It's on our YouTube channel. We come on at 11. 11:30. What. What are we coming on during these. These weird Sunday early games?
- [87:52]
C
We're 11:30. It's 11:30.
- [87:56]
A
Yeah.
- [87:56]
C
Why would it change?
- [87:57]
A
Get all the bets. You, sal, the bundo, J.J. raheem, the whole crew's there. So anyway. And they'll be talking to Ringer 107 on there. We are 8 and 12 for the season. Had some bad luck. I don't. I only feel really shitty about two of those picks, and I feel like we got hosed on a couple. I'm fine. I'm not panicking. I'm not nervous. I think we have a good feel for the slate. Ringer 107. First one, Seahawks minus three at home against the banged up Bucks. House and I are both a little more bullish on the Seahawks than maybe the Lions are reflecting still plus360 to win their division. And I don't know. I like this team. I think this line probably moves up right house to three and a half maybe by Sunday.
- [88:39]
C
Wouldn't surprise me one bit. It's already at the Juice. Is there?
- [88:43]
A
We're grabbing it three. And if Baker Mayfield beats us, Godspeed. It's happened before. I tip my hat to that man. He's a legend. Texans at Baltimore Texans minus one and a half. And this is a bet against Cooper Rush. And it's a bet against. If Cooper Rush doesn't play because banged up Lamar is playing, it's a bet against banged up can't really use his legs Lamar. And it's a bet against a Baltimore defense that has been absolutely annihilated and has given up 133 points. This feels like a get right spot for the Texans. And you love their defense.
- [89:16]
C
I do and I think there's plenty to support. Loving their defense.
- [89:21]
A
Did that guy get suspended that they have? Who does a cheap shot every? Al Shayer?
- [89:27]
C
I don't think so.
- [89:28]
A
He didn't get suspended for that, right?
- [89:29]
C
I don't think so. But he does get suspended every year.
- [89:32]
A
So I hope he won't get suspended in this game. All right. Chiefs minus three on Monday night against the Jaguars. I made the case to you that I thought the Jags were the good bad team and you liked it.
- [89:43]
C
We're rolling with my homie. This is easy. This is not. We're not going to.
- [89:46]
A
This is it. By the way, I said Josh Allen was the best QB in the league. Mahomes could take it back in three weeks. Who knows. Plus 650.
- [89:54]
C
Plus 650 for MVP. That's a good price.
- [89:57]
A
Patriots plus eight and a half in Buffalo on a Sunday night in the biggest game of Drake May's career. By far the first Big Mike Vrabel Patriots game. A Patriots team that I feel like has been keeping stuff in their back pocket for this game the last couple weeks and a Buffalo team that just does not look that inspiring. And the Saints were moving the ball on them. They have a lot of injuries on defense. You can run the ball on them. On the flip side, they're going to score. And I think for the Pats that for the past to hang with this eight and a half, they're going to have to put up points. They're going to have to maybe even get a backdoor cover. But I think they can hang around, hang around Hang around. I also love the over in this game. I just think there's going to be a lot of points. This to me feels like a, like a 33 to 27, 36 to 30 like in that range. You agree with that?
- [90:50]
C
That's fine. Yes. That's all, that's all fine. Those are all winners for us.
- [90:54]
A
All right. So I had two of those picks. We shared two of them and then House got his own pick because that's how we do it in Ringer 107. And you like the Indianapolis moneyline at home against the flailing the failing Las Vegas Raiders parlayed with the Eagles money line against Denver. I actually like Denver plus four and a half. You shield capadia made the case they don't lose when Jalen hurts starts and finishes games they've won 18 straight. Defense looked a lot better last week until the Heat kind of did them in. Colts eagles moneyline parlay minus 107 make the case.
- [91:31]
C
Yeah, I just this is a last opportunity to go against Geno. It feels like we're not going to get lines of less than a touchdown.
- [91:40]
A
Where's he going?
- [91:41]
C
Good teams. I don't know to the eye doctor because he's, he's, he's linebacker blind.
- [91:47]
A
Maybe that's, it's like when my, when my eyesight changed when I turned 44 and my, my eyesight got better. My contacts, I thought I had like a brain tumor and it was just my contacts were too strong. Maybe Geno needs to get his eyesight checked.
- [92:00]
C
Yes. And the Eagles portion of this is just show me Bonix. Show me one time.
- [92:06]
A
Well you were a lot more explicit before. Today's Ringer 107 was brought to you by FanDuel Odds subject to change. Have you done any NBA homework?
- [92:16]
C
I haven't really started yet. I know it's coming. It's October.
- [92:19]
A
Today's October the second coming faster than you realize. We're like two and a half weeks away.
- [92:24]
C
Right. I'll be ready. Don't worry.
- [92:26]
A
We had Golden State sign Kaminga. I have to tell you how Horford thing I, I did bet the Celtics.
- [92:34]
C
Are like 42 and a half or 43 and a half.
- [92:37]
A
I thought they were 41.
- [92:39]
C
Whatever it is, I bet the over I bet it last week. I'm just telling you right now you're going to be happy. I, I, I think that's a crazy number for the, for the east like all of a sudden all of these trash teams in the east are going to win 45 to low 50 games. Get out of here. The Celtics are going to be in a.500 team. They're going to be better than that just because they get to play in the east.
- [93:03]
A
They're 41 and a half.
- [93:04]
C
Yeah. Great.
- [93:05]
A
Right now in Fanduel.
- [93:06]
C
I'm telling you, I bet it. I just, that's the only NBA bet that I can think of off the top of my head right now.
- [93:11]
A
I've been making the case that just the system they have and all the threes they're going to shoot and how fast they're going to play. The only. There was only one thing from the Tatum injury that I'm not even using the word a positive. I'm just saying that will change their style in a potentially positive way is Tatum. As you know, he used to drive me crazy. Would walk the ball up, walk the ball up, start the shot clock late. They're going to fucking run and gun now. Like they are going to push the pace, shoot threes, runoff made baskets. They're going to shoot 50, 55 threes a game. And I think they're going to be weird to play. I think teams are going to be like, oh shit, we have to play this track me team. And then they'll change the style when, when Tatum comes back, if he comes back this year. I, I, I was already. I don't want to do the over unders. Cause during that couple weeks. But I just want to mention the Hawks is up to over 47 and a half.
- [94:12]
C
Yeah, that's what I mean. That's just crazy. Okay.
- [94:15]
A
Like, I love the Hawks 47 and a half.
- [94:17]
C
We're, we've been enthusiastic about the Hawks, but respectfully, get the fuck out of here.
- [94:22]
A
Like, it's like 28 and 34 is like a real record.
- [94:26]
C
Yeah, that's for a real team.
- [94:28]
A
Like I kind of like we, like.
- [94:31]
C
We like what they did in the off season. But holy cow, what did you think.
- [94:36]
A
Of Michael Pinna making the case that WEMBY at 12 to 1 for MVP has to at least be. Or he not made the case, but brought it up. I mean that the Wemby, the Wemby Kaiser Soze season could be.
- [94:47]
C
I'm going to put 50 bucks on it. Every year that he's. I bet, I bet him to win the MVP last year at some crazy number. I'm going to bet Wemby to win the MVP every year that he's in the league.
- [94:56]
A
It's like a Laywood plan.
- [94:58]
C
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Exactly.
- [95:00]
A
I don't Mind that.
- [95:01]
C
It's fine.
- [95:02]
A
My favorite. So I'm trying to like the preseason, like, reading all the stories. I can't get enough of the Philly coverage. We had actually a good piece on the ringer this week about them. This Maury now doing the. We wanted to have more youth on the team and blah, blah, blah. It's like, oh, yeah, that's why you. That's why you have Joe Embiid and Paul George all like the spin. But that is. I think I've used this analogy a couple times. I think that is the ceiling. Floor. Most floors between the ceiling and the floor team.
- [95:37]
C
Okay.
- [95:37]
A
You could tell me 20 wins. You could tell me like 52.
- [95:40]
C
Oh, guess what? I tried 50 last year and I'm not going to tell you what hole it went into on my. My orifices, but it still hurts. Still hurts. I'm still haven't recovered.
- [95:53]
A
They're. They're 42 and a half.
- [95:57]
C
Whatever.
- [95:58]
A
Anyone who bets that just has a gambling problem.
- [96:01]
C
That's it. That's right.
- [96:03]
A
Just flat out, I. I have an issue. That's like when Sal's betting on, like, the Singapore Open, when there's no football or whatever.
- [96:12]
C
This, like, you know, German league soccer. Think he does that sometimes. Tennis?
- [96:17]
A
Yeah, he. He definitely a hundred percent does that sometimes. Your Wizards, by the way. 21 and a half for the over. Under. I kind of like the over.
- [96:24]
C
It's right at the number like 22. Okay. 21. Okay. Like, that's a. Both of those are fair numbers. I don't know.
- [96:32]
A
They're just going to have to keep trading veterans that might. Might even show any sign of helping them or not.
- [96:38]
C
Well, you know what? You missed this, by the way. You and Zach missed this. The obvious answer for Houston is CJ McCollum. He's sitting right there. He's extremely available, and he would go there and immediately. I might even argue that he is. He's at least an equal to Fred Van Vliet. I don't know if he's an upgrade, but he's at least treading water. Competency wise, you know, offensive acumen wise, leadership wise. C.J. mcCollum and KD. That's pretty fucking good.
- [97:14]
A
Didn't they beef once about C.J. didn't. Didn't he. They had a podcast like, seven years ago, and they talked about how they could have beaten the title. And Kevin Durant was like, you mean over the Warriors? Like, do you remember that moment? There's something funny that happened with them.
- [97:29]
C
You're right.
- [97:31]
A
Wait so CJ McCollum, who's on the Washington wizard, somehow I can't believe you have him on your team for at least five minutes.
- [97:39]
C
He's on our team.
- [97:41]
A
So you're saying van Vliet makes 24 million a year and CJ makes 30. That's tough to trade Van Vliet. He's like the leader of the team, though. I guess he's out for. He's out for the year, but he's not gonna play.
- [97:54]
C
They need players. They're trying to win. Like, they're. They're the top five of winning the NBA title. They're in the top three of winning the Western Conference.
- [98:02]
A
Without them, they trade him there in, like, January and then like, Washington waves him. Maybe. Maybe he's got one of those deals where he can. I don't know, whatever. It's clear option for year two.
- [98:14]
C
Anything is possible in the NBA. Just ask Kawhi. What's cold.
- [98:21]
A
That's cold to just. The guy trades his ACL and it's like, hey, bad news. We've traded you to Washington. You'll finish your rehab there. I mean, that's it.
- [98:29]
C
What do you think? I mean, how do you. How about Isaiah Thomas? Do you think Isaiah Thomas with the Celtics?
- [98:34]
A
Well, that was cold. I didn't feel good about the Isaiah Thomas thing. Any other storylines or any other NBA storylines you're excited about?
- [98:42]
C
I'm a little bit. I want to. I want to pour some. Some settled down juice on the Golden State Warrior situation. Well, the news this week that they. They took care of Kaminga and they got the. The Al Horford deal done, and now they. They really excited. They're looking. They think they're in that upper echelon. They think that they're among the. They think that if they had that team that went 24 and seven down the stretch, you know, that's the. That's the identity. Okay. All right, let's see. Let's. But count me mildly skeptical.
- [99:16]
A
45 and a half over for them.
- [99:18]
C
Perfect number. 45 and a half is a perfect number for them.
- [99:24]
A
I think my favorite so far. I don't want to step on the pod. Charlotte, 26 and a half. I've been staring at.
- [99:34]
C
Which way are.
- [99:35]
A
You going to play it over? Wow. Let me hear why. Be really fun for the first two months of the season. I don't know. I like the guys in their team. Remember last year we really liked Brooklyn before the year as a. Like, that team's not bad. Like, they have professional basketball players and Then we were right. And then they immediately and frantically had to trade a lot of those guys to get them off the team.
- [100:02]
C
They hit their over.
- [100:03]
A
Yeah, we did.
- [100:05]
C
They did hit their over.
- [100:07]
A
I think, Charlotte, first of all, they're not gonna. I don't. They're too. They're gonna be too competent to. To potentially train. Like, they don't really have anyone to train. They have young guys.
- [100:17]
C
This is Caneppel. This is you. You. Your boy. This is. I understand what's going on.
- [100:22]
A
This is Brandon Miller, year three, coming back.
- [100:24]
C
All right.
- [100:25]
A
This is Miles Bridges. This is Grant Williams. Eventually come back. This is Lamelo trying to play 60 games. I don't know. I think they have some talent. The East.
- [100:35]
C
They do have talent.
- [100:37]
A
Because the difference with them versus your team is you're going to be trying to get rid of guys that can help you. Charlotte can't really. Charlotte can't do that. And I don't even think they'd mind if they were good.
- [100:47]
C
Who's their starting center? I can't pull it off. They traded every center they tried to hit all their centers.
- [100:52]
A
Listen, that's where it becomes an issue. I'll give you. I'll give you their. I'll give you their team. Hold on. It's. It's looking like it might be a Plumlee. Sure.
- [101:11]
C
That's phenomenal.
- [101:12]
A
God bless. There's a plumly involved. Liam McNeely's on this team.
- [101:18]
C
Congratulations. Oh, yeah.
- [101:21]
A
Spencer Dinwiddie's on this team.
- [101:24]
C
Kyle Kuzma's favorite. Din Shitty.
- [101:27]
A
The one of the Martin twins is on here. Josh Green.
- [101:30]
C
I wish.
- [101:33]
A
For a center.
- [101:34]
C
A 27. I'll bet.
- [101:36]
B
I.
- [101:36]
C
Okay. I don't mind a 27.
- [101:38]
A
Well, here's the thing. This is why I bring it up. I think one of these east teams will be. Just because there's so many bad east teams, one of these teams will be like, all right, fine. We'll be the one that wins 32 games and goes 32 and 50. I would say they're a candidate.
- [101:52]
C
Is there any information out there about whether or not Malik Beasley is going to be allowed to play basketball in the NBA this coming season.
- [101:59]
A
Not a lot.
- [102:00]
C
Not a lot of information. And Detroit can't resign them. They don't have the cap room anymore.
- [102:08]
A
I think they can resign them, and they do have the cap room.
- [102:10]
C
Oh. Oh, okay. Well, that. So that this is.
- [102:14]
B
It's weird.
- [102:14]
A
They close the investigation, and then the investigation doesn't seem like it's totally over.
- [102:19]
C
Well, because the NBA is Conducting its own investigation after the district attorney's office cleared him. So I'm excited to hear what the NBA comes up with that the district attorney's office didn't find.
- [102:31]
A
I think the NBA is way more interested in figuring out, figuring out this Clippers thing so it doesn't linger around the next four months of the season and affect the All Star game and all that shit. How did you feel about Nikola Jovic signing a four year rookie extension with the Heat for $62.4 million? Do you think that would be in our worst contracts draft with with Big Wise in early March?
- [102:59]
C
I mean it's an amazing job by him and his agent, the Heat. What are we going to do with the Heat? I don't have an opinion on Jovic. I mean what can I say?
- [103:09]
A
Can I give you some Jovic stats? He's played 107 of a possible 246 games.
- [103:15]
C
I mean this is. How can you have an opinion on him? Go ahead.
- [103:17]
A
He averaged A career high 10.7 points last year. I just thought, I just thought when we now that we're into the second apron era, I thought teams would start to be way more careful about these guys that aren't impact guys. Even the Kaminga thing I don't feel great about for the warriors that that's just 20. That's a 24 million.
- [103:38]
C
That's the get it. But that's the trade that's the perfect trading for that.
- [103:43]
A
What, what team would you want your team to trade for Kaminga for?
- [103:47]
C
My team's not competitive.
- [103:48]
A
Then you have to pay him again.
- [103:49]
C
There will be a competitive team out there that, that sees that they have to do the audition that they've to do.
- [103:57]
A
There's only one team dumb enough and they are also in California and they play in the state capital of Sacramento.
- [104:06]
C
Oh wow.
- [104:07]
A
Only team dumb enough to talk themselves into 120 million for you know, four years for Kaminga.
- [104:12]
C
What makes sense to me and I'm not kidding is the Clippers. I think the Clippers Kuminga could work for the Clippers. I really do think that with what they have and they, they have parts.
- [104:22]
A
After Kawhi's banned from the NBA.
- [104:24]
C
Whatever happens ultimately with Kawhi. The Heat are interesting at 37 and a half. They feel like they have a move. That's a place, that's a place Kamiga can land.
- [104:35]
A
Well, this is don't they have. But they don't have their pick this year. That's the other thing is these picks are so complicated. With who has whose pick San Antonio has. They can swap with Atlanta. But now Atlanta is good. So this, that pick that they had that they thought was going to be awesome, they don't have it.
- [104:57]
C
We said we weren't going to do it. We're too far down the rabbit hole. We're talking about pick swaps between the spurs and the Hawks. We should stop the Clippers.
- [105:05]
A
The Clippers.
- [105:06]
C
We should stop.
- [105:09]
A
The Clippers could either send their first to Philly or okc. They don't get to keep it, but they're going to be good. I don't know. There's a million things.
- [105:19]
C
You're right.
- [105:19]
A
We should stop. House, I hope we do well in Ringer 107.
- [105:23]
C
You, me, both. I'm knocking on one.
- [105:25]
A
And I hope the Rams win tonight in the future. And I hope the Red Sox win tonight against my most hated team, the New York Yankees.
- [105:32]
C
Respectfully, I am rooting for the Red Sox because I can't under any circumstances root for the Yankees ever.
- [105:38]
A
Thanks, House.
- [105:39]
C
Yeah, my pleasure.
- [105:40]
A
Good job by you, as always.
- [105:41]
C
Thank you.
- [105:42]
A
All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Henschen, House. Thanks to Eduardo and Gahao as well. Don't forget new Prestige TV podcast coming this weekend on Sunday. New rewatchables coming on Monday. Enjoy the weekend. Have a great time. Keep a smile on your face. I'll see you Sunday, cousin Sal. We'll be going live on YouTube this Sunday, by the way. So live YouTube Sunday, me and Sal. See you then. Must be 21 plus the President. Select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas star Kas Encino or 18 plus in President, D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplianma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny.