Part 1: Bill’s NBA Six-Pack. Plus Peter Schrager on the Jets’ Downfall, Buffalo’s Leap, and DRAKE MAYE.

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast – Part 1 Summary

Title: The Bill Simmons Podcast
Host/Author: The Ringer
Episode: Part 1: Bill’s NBA Six-Pack. Plus Peter Schrager on the Jets’ Downfall, Buffalo’s Leap, and DRAKE MAYE
Release Date: November 21, 2024

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NBA Six-Pack

Clippers Without Paul George

Bill Simmons opens the NBA segment by dissecting the Los Angeles Clippers' decision to proceed without Paul George. He expresses skepticism about the Clippers' scoring potential without George, especially given Kawhi Leonard's existing contract. Bill remarks:

"Why not just go all the way in on your team? [...] something made them go, this time it's too rich for our blood." ([02:38])

He criticizes the Clippers for offering George a three-year deal worth $150 million instead of a four-year maximum, highlighting concerns over George's injury history and the team's reluctance to commit long-term.

Warriors' DeAnthony Melton Injury

Simmons shifts focus to the Golden State Warriors, emphasizing the impact of DeAnthony Melton's injury. He notes that Melton was integral to their defensive rating and chemistry alongside Stephen Curry. Bill states:

"Melton was doing it. I'm just watching it because I loved how the warriors played the last time we did the power poll." ([06:40])

He underscores how Melton's absence has exposed underlying issues, particularly with defensive assignments.

Houston's Performance and the "Terror Twins"

Discussing the Houston team, Simmons praises the dynamic duo known as the "Terror Twins," Ahmed Thompson and Tar Eason. He highlights their athleticism and defensive prowess, suggesting that Houston is a top-five contender in the West:

"Houston to me is a top five team in the West. I'm taking them very seriously. And I love the Terra Twins." ([18:37])

Miami Heat Culture and Draft Choices

Bill questions whether the Miami Heat's culture has faltered post-draft, particularly after missing key picks. He critiques their selection of Jarred McCain over higher-impact players, reflecting on the team's strategic shifts:

"It's been a couple of years since they had a real true number one quarterback." ([22:35])

NBA All-Star Game Format Changes

Simmons addresses the proposed changes to the NBA All-Star Game, expressing confusion over the new format:

"Even though I would put my track record of great goofy NBA ideas against anyone in the 21st century." ([17:49])

He criticizes the introduction of three All-Star teams with eight players each, suggesting a return to a more traditional format with four teams of six players.

Milwaukee Bucks' Season Progress

Concluding the NBA Six-Pack, Bill discusses the Milwaukee Bucks' resilience despite early-season uncertainties. He remains cautiously optimistic about their ability to secure a playoff spot:

"Philly is not okay and we're going to be talking about that later." ([16:28])

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Special Guest: Steve Cerruti on the Philadelphia 76ers and Franz Wagner

Franz Wagner's Rise

Bill brings in Steve Cerruti, a producer and Orlando Magic fan, to discuss Franz Wagner's impressive performance with the Philadelphia 76ers. Steve defends Wagner's capabilities, arguing against his low ranking in The Ringer's list:

"He's behind Dame and he's behind Paul George. [...] you're telling me the Sixers right now, for like the next two, three, four, five years. Like this year, the Sixers would much rather have Franz than Paul George." ([17:49])

He highlights Wagner's all-around contributions, including rebounds, assists, and steals, positioning him as a potential All-NBA player.

Critique of The Ringer Rankings

Steve criticizes The Ringer's ranking system, particularly Franz Wagner's placement, arguing that tactical performance should outweigh name recognition:

"I showed the Sixers would much rather have Franz than Paul George. [...] it really is a fluke or is this real?" ([18:52])

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Transition to NFL with Peter Schrager

Bill transitions to NFL discussions, introducing Peter Schrager to delve into the Jets' season struggles and Buffalo Bills' unexpected rise.

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NFL Discussions

Jets' Downfall

Peter Schrager candidly admits his misjudgment in predicting the Jets' success, reflecting on their poor performance despite initial optimism:

"I fell forward hard and I hand up. I fucked up. Jets suck." ([28:52])

He attributes the downfall to lack of chemistry, ineffective coaching decisions, and unrealistic expectations.

Buffalo Bills' Leap

Contrasting the Jets' struggles, Peter praises the Buffalo Bills for their strong season, despite skepticism about their defensive mechanics:

"Buffalo being good is surprising. I don't really fully understand it." ([29:32])

He commends their defensive solidness and consistent performance, positioning them as a formidable contender in the AFC.

Chiefs' Offense and Defense Concerns

Simmons and Schrager express concerns about the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive line and defensive consistency, especially after recent losses:

"The big thing is, we knew this was the risk with The Jets. [...] The Chiefs are five to one." ([37:04])

They analyze the Chiefs' vulnerabilities despite Patrick Mahomes' stellar play, questioning the sustainability of their performance.

Super Bowl Contenders: Packers, Niners, Rams

The duo evaluates several Super Bowl favorites, expressing skepticism over traditional powerhouses due to inconsistent performances:

• Green Bay Packers:
  Bill remains cautious, noting their recent inconsistent play and reliance on key players like Aaron Rodgers:

  "I do think they have nailed the draft and they've found a way to recover from Aaron Donald retiring." ([59:53])

• San Francisco 49ers:
  Concerns are raised about the 49ers' defense and offensive line, despite their historic playoff resilience:

  "They're the first time ever in their history. [...] It's a different Niners team." ([60:43])

• Los Angeles Rams:
  Simmons praises the Rams’ defensive pickups and strategic drafting, viewing them as a potential dark horse:

  "Sean Payton clearly can't scout Melton because we never saw that come into the team." ([57:55])

Coaching Situations and Speculations

Bill and Peter debate potential coaching changes across the NFL, speculating on the movement of high-profile coaches like Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel:

"I think Belichick's going to go to Jacksonville and I think Vrabel will get a really good job." ([75:03])

They discuss the complexities of hiring top coaching talent, emphasizing the influence of team culture and ownership relationships.

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Drake May Spotlight

Simmons introduces a segment focusing on NFL rookie quarterback Drake May, highlighting his exceptional performance despite offensive line challenges:

"This is Drake May, who is doing it with talent that might not be starting on other NFL rosters." ([48:45])

Peter commends May's resilience and leadership, comparing him to seasoned quarterbacks and expressing excitement about his future:

"Drake is doing it with talent that might not be starting on other NFL rosters." ([50:07])

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Conclusion and Teasers for Part 2

Bill Simmons wraps up part one by previewing the upcoming discussion in part two, which will focus on the Philadelphia 76ers and "million dollar picks." He encourages listeners to stay tuned for deeper analysis and expert insights.

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Notable Quotes

• Bill Simmons on Clippers' Strategy:
  "So here's why you can't, like, celebrate too much with the Clippers." ([06:28])

• Steve Cerruti on Franz Wagner's Rating:
  "He's on very impressive lists. So I just love this." ([19:43])

• Peter Schrager on Jets' Missteps:
  "I fell forward hard and I hand up. I fucked up. Jets suck." ([28:52])

• Bill on Drake May's Impact:
  "It's this ragazell thing, proving he's a max player and [...]" ([51:57])

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Final Remarks

Part one of "The Bill Simmons Podcast" offers an in-depth exploration of current NBA dynamics and a critical analysis of the NFL landscape, featuring expert opinions and candid reflections. With engaging discussions and insightful commentary, listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the ongoing sports narratives.

Stay tuned for part two, where Bill and his guests will delve deeper into the Philadelphia 76ers and present their "million dollar picks."

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Note: All timestamps correspond to the segments in the provided transcript.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

Coming up, a two part pod. This is part one. We're going to talk some basketball, talk some football next. This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Ray Ban Meta Smart glasses. Built with Meta AI Ray Ban Meta Smart glasses react to what you see so you can learn more about the world around you. You can also take hands free photos, videos, send messages, make video calls, even play music and podcasts straight from your glasses with Ray Ban Meta. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. It's tip off time for NBA cup, so I hope you're all ready and stocked up on Michelob Ultra. Notice how I called it NBA cup and not the NBA Cup. Trying to get that going. We'll see how it goes. I really love how they're getting fans closer to all the action with Michelob Ultra Courtside. It has exclusive content and prizes like courtside seats, a trip to the Paris Global game or to All Star Weekend and much more. Learn how you can get closer to the action. Visit mcelobultra.com quartzite Michelob Ultra Superior Access courtside 2425 sweepstakes. No purchase necessary. Open to US residents. 21/plus begins on 10124 goes through 71 25. Visit michelobolcher.com courtside for free entry, entry deadlines and official rules and void were prohibited. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast network. If you missed it, we put up a new rewatchables. On Monday we did the Replacements. You can watch that on The Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. You can watch all the videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. This is going to be a two part podcast. We just had too much content for you today. So part one, I'm doing an NBA six pack at the top. And then our old friend Peter Schrager is coming on to talk about all of the NFL things. We're super surprised by things. We're delighted by where we stand after 11 weeks, even some coach stuff. So that's going to be part one. And then part two is going to be Chris Ryan and Joe House and I talking about the Sixers and what the hell is going on there. And then House and I are going to do some million dollar picks. So we're going to try to get both of these parts up as soon as we possibly can. So that's the plan. This is part one. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, we're gonna start with an NBA six pack. I haven't done this In a while. I haven't talked to NB in over a week, which is my fault. I'm not perfect. I have six things that I wanted to throw at you. None of them have to do with the Philadelphia 76ers, because we're going to be talking about them later today with Chris Ryan and Joe House. First thing, the Clippers without Paul George. So I took the under as a lock before the season or over under podcast with the Clippers 37 and a half, I didn't see how they were going to have enough scoring, which is James Hard and Norman Powell. I didn't understand why they didn't give Paul George four years max. Like, you're already all in with this Kawhi contract. Why not just go all the way in on your team? Well, what did they know? I remember mentioning this on one of the podcasts. It's like, Bomber guy who just spends money, like, absolute fucking crazy. And this Paul George thing was too rich for his blood. What do they know? You have an athlete on your team, in this case, for five full years, half a decade, and your trainers see stuff, your coaching staff see stuff. Something about it made them a little wary of committing to a guy in his mid-30s who had had, you know, a major awful broken leg. Some other knee stuff. Something made them go, this time it's too rich for our blood. Which is interesting because they did this with Blake Griffin. When they signed Blake Griffin to a big max deal and then traded him, like, four months later. And it was like, oh, my God, they traded Blake Griffin. What are they doing? And then what happened? Blake Griffin's body broke down within two years. You watch Paul George now, he's hyperextended. The same knee twice. So you could say, oh, that's a little fluky. When he came back from the injury, between those two injuries, he didn't look great. And if you're a Sixers fan staring at that max contract, I think you're in a complete panic. But here's why you can't, like, celebrate too much with the Clippers. They did offer Paul George three years for 150. So it's not like they were like, we're out. We want no part of the Paul George business. They kind of wanted it at their price. What was smart was when they had a chance to sign and trade them, which is something that teams have done a lot in the past where they was like, well, we have this asset. We got to turn it. And all of a sudden they're taking these contracts back. They were smart enough not to do that. They didn't do it with Gold. State had some possible trades. Denver, they supposedly talked to. So they turned the Paul George money into Derrick Jones and Chris Dunn. 45 million for three years. So that's about one third what Paul George would have cost. And then Nick Platoon, 1 year, 4.9. It looks like he might be washed. But they had the ability now to slap contracts for bigger deals, slap them together, whatever. And the big bet was, can Norman Powell shoulder some of this burden? And he actually has. So I've been watching them because I've been rooting against them because I love being right. And they're nine and seven. They've had a tough schedule. It's been like the opposite of a Lakers schedule. You know, it's true. Laker fans, you know, like this win streak, like you haven't played anybody, you know that's true deep down. Clippers, 9 and 7. They played Houston twice, they played Golden State twice, they played Phoenix twice. They played okc, Sacramento, Orlando and Denver. There's not nothing going on here. And I'll tell you one other thing. I think the arena is really good. They played the warriors last. Last Monday and I really wanted to go. And we had a Spotify thing. I couldn't go. And somebody who was there told me something, somebody that's worked for the team for a while told me something that I thought was a great point. It was the first warriors game the Clippers have had as a home game where the warriors fans didn't drown out the Clipper fans, where it actually felt like a Clippers home game and they ended up winning. It was a classic Clippers warriors game where the warriors played that crap. The Clippers look great. Then all of a sudden the warriors, they were scrapping together, trying to win at the end.

[Peter Schrager]

They didn't.

[Bill Simmons]

But whatever Ballmer did with that arena, which is really cool, and the wall and the fans close together and trying to monitor some of the ticket stuff, it actually worked in that warriors game. So I'm a little more bullish on the Clippers than I used to be. That's the first one. Speaking of the warriors, It's a tiny one second in the six pack. The DeAnthony Melton injury was a really, really secretly huge injury. There's been so many injuries this year, it kind of got lost in the shuffle. But he had really unlocked them. He was really good next to Curry. He was an excellent on ball defender, a good shooter. They were fourth in defensive rating before he got hurt and he was a great fit with Curry and he hurt his knee and it was like, ah. Then they said it was a sprain day seal and then all of a sudden he's getting ACL surgery and it just hurts them. They're not the same team. They've been trying to throw people in that spot and we'll see how it goes with them. But he was the perfect fit and it kind of exposed the secret issue with Clay the last couple years where he kind of couldn't guard anybody. And if you have Curry, that doesn't need to be totally protected because he's a really good off ball defender. But you want somebody else taking that burden of going against the John Moran types night after night. Melton was doing it. I'm just watching it because I loved how the warriors played the last time we did the power pole. I was talking about how I had them as a sleeper, but I really thought maybe they could be a real contender. And they still might be. But the Melton thing, Melton thing definitely hurts. So I didn't want to not mention that. Third thing for the six pack, Houston, they have the look. I know the luck. They have the luck. Third defensive rating, 11th offense. The terror twins, Ahmed Thompson and Tar Eason have been my. They're not the league pack. They're not like best Oscar winner, best actor. I'm not even positive they're best supporting actor. But there's something. I don't know what Oscar they would win. They come in and they flip these games. They, they just have so much athleticism and so much defense in those two. They're terrifying. It's a little like what Orlando had last year. It's a little like what OKC has sometimes, but they have like, it's something to watch and especially if you're gambling on games and you like player props and stuff. Like watch when Houston goes against teams that have good swings. Like they played Indiana Math run at eight points. They played Chicago, Levine had 15. They had back to backs against the Clippers. This is what really jumped out to me because I actually watched those games. Harden was fucking useless against Houston between Brooks and then the Terror Twins, like it was. You could kind of see him like, I'm tapping out. I don't like this. I'm not having a good time. Harden and Powell in back to back games were 21 for 5812 free throw attempts total. And they only scored 60 points and Houston swept those games. And I just think defensively there's really something here. I don't even I said this when we did the power poll. I don't even think they know what, what their team has yet like that. Like Jabari Smith will have some games or only plays like 22 minutes, only scores four points. He's a guy that, if you're going to say who is not going to be on this team in a year, maybe that's the guy because I think he's a real asset. They were playing Small by five with them last year. He's only 9.7 million this year. He could be the focal point of a trade. If they want to make a trade. They've already said publicly they don't want to make a trade, that they're happy to have the kind of what Orlando had last year, what OKC had two years ago, of we're young, we're hungry, let's see where this goes, which I think is the right mentality. But they do have a lot of picks. They do have Jabari as the centerpiece of if you're actually getting a player back in the trade. So I'm just watching them and I'm watching them in general because I really like them. Tuesday night, Houston at Minnesota with the Terror Twins and Brooks going against Edwards is, I think the league pass game of the year. That isn't Celtics. Cleveland. Cause I don't think that was a league pass game. But I want to see them go toe to toe with that Minnesota team. Houston to me is a top five team in the West. I'm taking them very seriously. And I love the Terra Twins. So that's my third thing. Fourth thing, just a question. Did Heat culture die when they didn't get damn. Because here's what's happened since. Remember, they had already drafted Hawkeyes, which is the last really smart Heat moment we've had since then. The 2024 Knicks, last year's Knicks team, kind of stole their identity as like the defense chemistry, overachieving team. They had a terrible year. Riley got mad at Butler. The rosier trade turned out to be kind of blah. And I'll admit I like the Rozier trade for them. He was playing great for Charlotte. He's been kind of blah for them. I think he's averaging 13 points a game. There's times out there he might be the Tobias Harris Award. Russell's joke about, oh, I didn't realize Terry Roger was out there. He's had some moments like that. Bam's gone backwards. Now. I'm. I assume that's going to turn around, but I'm just pointing out he doesn't look like a top 15 player in the league. Nikola Jovich, who they were all excited about. Wow. They're getting 24 points a game and a 49, 45, 88 shooting season from Tyler Herro. And as we're taping this on a Thursday, they're 6 and 7 and Boston and Cleveland seems like they're miles ahead of them. But the big thing for me, and a lot of people have talked about this this week, and this is like the Heat. Fans get mad every time I talk about the Heat. They had the 15th pick in the draft. They drafted Ware, the center who barely plays, and they passed on back to back picks. Jared McCain goes to Philly and Connect goes to the Lakers. And in the old days, the Heat, if McCain was on the board at 15, like, forget about Connect. I like Connect, but I can see it. He's 24. They already have shooters who don't really play defense. Like, I get it. McCain was the most Miami pick. I can't believe. I couldn't believe it in the moment. If you go back to my Twitter feed, I was going nuts about McCain. I thought, like, I was like, this guy, I know this guy's good because he was an LA kid. I watched him play in high school a bunch of times. He was my favorite kind of post ladder guy in the draft by far. I would have bet anything McCain was going to be a good player and they passed on them and maybe it's nothing. Everybody misses on picks. They had Hero, they took. Bam. They took. They took Hawkeyes. Like they're clearly really good at drafting. And they whiffed on this pick with two guys that really, really, really could have helped them. Big picture. I'm just not afraid of the Heat anymore. I think I finally. It's like the horror movie where you're not looking under your bed. I'm just not looking under my bed anymore. With the heat. Great run. 20, 20, 23. And. And it's over and we'll see what they do with it. But I. That McCain Connect thing is like symbolic of something that shifted with those guys. Fifth thing on the six pack. So the NBA all star game. Sham Shirania. Now, ESPN reported that they're going to do a 14 tournament this year and they're going to have three all star teams, eight players each. And then they're going to have the winner of the rookie sophomore game. And so it's going to be four teams competing, semifinal games up to 40 points. First team to 40, I guess, wins finals games up to 25 points. As usual, they didn't consult with me. Even though I would put my track record of great goofy NBA ideas against anyone in the 21st century. I just would just go look at the track record. It's there. I don't know why the rookie sophomore guys are in this and I don't know why each team has eight players. If they had asked me, what do you think I would have said four all star teams, six players each. So there's one sub. Has anybody who made this decision ever played pickup basketball? Who has three subs in pickup basketball? It sucks. I remember playing in a league one year in Boston when we had like nine players on the. And it was like short games and you're just shuttling guys in and out like it was hockey and it sucked. I would have done four all star teams. I would have done six players each, had the signature players of the league be the captain of those teams. So you have Steph, you have giannis, you have LeBron and maybe Jokic, however you want to do it. Sorry, Embiid, you didn't make the cut and done six players. Then each player is a sub. And by the way, if somebody gets hurt, you still have five players and maybe there's a 25th all star who's like the emergency QB who can come in at any point if two guys are hurt. I just don't get the eight players thing and I don't understand why anybody wants to watch the rookie sophomore guys playing against these dudes. Not to mention those guys are actually going to be really trying and maybe that's why they did it. Maybe they wanted the All Stars to try against the rookie sophomores, but it's like that's a pretty big spot to throw a rookie team in. Especially when you have the draft that we had this year. That was pretty uninspired, the sophomores, whatever, but I just, it was easy tweak. I don't know how they fucked this up. As usual, they didn't ask me. Sixth and last. I think Milwaukee is going to be fine. That's where I landed. I don't think they're going to win the title. I don't even think they're necessarily going to make the eastern finals. But I didn't think that before the season what, what was in play for the first three weeks was this could be an all time disaster. They're going to have to trade Giannis. Like it just felt like all the darkest pieces of the season were sitting there. Giannis is averaging a 3212 and 6. He's it's yet it's like his seventh straight year where he's looked like one of the three best players in the league. At worst, Dame has not shot the ball well and they're still 6 and 9 with three horrible losses. One that actually seemed like there should have been a criminal investigation with the officiating. But 6 and 9 easily it could be 9 and 6. The three of the dumbest losses of the season. Green and Prince, two swing guys for them, both shooting 50% from three. So Doc has just figured out like I'm probably just going to give up defense with the swings. I just want to make sure guys can make shots. That's why somebody like A.J. green is playing and they're not a top four team. I don't think they're there with Boston, Cleveland, New York or Orlando. But after that I don't know who I'd like more than Giannis and the Bucks. I'd probably have them fifth and all they need to do is get to the playoffs and then you have Giannis and you can try to stay healthy and maybe you can find one shooter. They're minus 700 for the playoffs on FanDuel, which I think is notable. Should also mention FanDuel does not have odds for Philly to make the playoffs. You literally can't find them because that's how crazy this Philly season's been. But I'm leaning toward Milwaukee's probably okay, right? They maybe they're not not one of the favorites, but they're okay. This isn't going to be like a catastrophe of the season. Philly is not okay and we're going to be talking about that later. So that's a six pack for the NBA. But I have to bring in Steve Cerruti, Orlando Magic fan, producer of the pod, because there's some Franz Wagner atoning we have to do. I handed him my ringer 100 list over a week ago. I think I had Franz like in the low 60s. The list itself didn't do very well and all Franz has done over the last two weeks has said not only are we not going to miss Paula, but I'm actually an all NBA player and sign me up for this list. Is this a fluke or is this real?

[Steve Cerruti]

I think it's real. I will say my biggest gripe with Franz is that in the past with Paulo when he would go on these quarter stretches where he'd clearly be the guy and on a streak, they just wouldn't give him the ball or he wouldn't be proactive and be like, no, I'm that dude right now. Paulo, take a step back. And I think this, you know, you never want to say an injury is like a blessing in disguise, but I kind of feel like Franz has found his groove again because he's just the guy now. And I'm kind of hoping, like, in the long term this is going to translate to, like, some. A little bit, like, taking some of the pressure off Apollo and Franz realizing, like, hey, there are stretches where I can be that dude, because, I mean, he's averaging like 37 and six play a six game winning streak. Obviously, we're recording this after the loss against the Clippers last night. And he didn't have a great game, but, you know, it's okay. He had six straight great games.

[Peter Schrager]

I.

[Steve Cerruti]

This is everything that we wanted a max player. This is everything that we thought he was going to be. And I'm looking at the ringer rankings right now. It's. It's doing my guy a disservice. It really is.

[Bill Simmons]

Where did he end up in the ringer rankings in the 50s?

[Steve Cerruti]

He's 40. He's 48.

[Bill Simmons]

Wow.

[Steve Cerruti]

Which is. He's behind Scotty Barnes. He's behind. I mean, there are just some guys, like, he's behind Dame and he's behind Paul George. You know, I know there's the name recognition, but like, you're telling me the Sixers right now, not for like the next two, three, four, five years. Like this year, the Sixers would much rather have Franz than Paul George. The Bucks would much rather have Franz than Damian Lillard. I don't even think it's close. So, like, I know the name thing, like, we want to give those guys respect, but that's insane.

[Bill Simmons]

In our defense, when the first couple of weeks, Franz couldn't hit a three and it's like, what's going on? Where's Team Germany? Franz? Is that guy coming back?

[Steve Cerruti]

It's around 35% right now.

[Peter Schrager]

It's.

[Steve Cerruti]

Come on, it's not terrible. It could be better. I still think it could be improved, but he's. He's fine.

[Bill Simmons]

Team Germany, Franz seems like he's back. It's pretty exciting.

[Steve Cerruti]

He's got his brother. He doesn't need Dennis Schroeder. He proved, you know, who knows, the trade deadline still. Maybe the Magic will be looking for a point cut. I kind of hope it's not him, but he. He just looks so much more confident, man. And it's not even that, like, the defense is really good. He's like one of. Where I have a couple stats here. Hold on. He's one of eight players averaging 25 rebounds, four assists and 4.5 steals a game. That's Luca Dear, Fox, SGA Harden, Jokic Tatum and Jalen Williams. Like, it's. He's on very impressive lists. So I just love this. It's like the Franz Renaissance thing, proving he's a max player and, you know, who knows, like Paulo, you know, he's going to be out probably at least another month or so. So this is things. It's probably going to keep rolling.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. The thing you needed was with Paulo going out, how can Orlando keep their spot as either the third or the fourth seed? How can you make sure you. You stay in the. You're going to win the division. Although I don't even know if winning the division matters anymore. But 9 and 7, losing your best guy for God knows how long is not a bad place to be. We're taping this before the Lakers game, but the pods going up for the Lakers game. The thing with the Lakers, they don't have really anyone on their roster to guard, to guard, like good scoring wings like this or good point guards, by the way. And they've had this stretch where they've won some games, but part of the reason they're winning the games is because they can play this lineup with Connect and Reaves and LeBron and Dlo altogether because they don't have to worry about guarding anyone. I want to see if Franz can light up the Lakers tonight, because I think he can. It's the type of guy that I don't even know, you know, who they'd have to guard him. So we'll see. I'm glad Franz is back. I'm glad for your sanity.

[Steve Cerruti]

You're back in on the max player bandwagon. You're back. We flip flopped a little this summer, but you're back now. It's good to have you.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, and then the other thing is Anthony Black, the last time we talked about this, like, continues to. May be making strides. So they're. They're laying the foundation. They're not in the Cleveland Boston swimming pool, but they're at like the pool right next to it doing laps.

[Steve Cerruti]

No, but you know what? Like, I was talking to a buddy about this. The east is weird because I think before the season we were like, hey, it's Boston. Then it's like kind of the next, like two through eight or nine were like, I don't know, it could Be like, between, like two to three games. Could. Could be the difference at the end of the season. Now it feels totally different to me now it feels like, like the Magic should get a home playoff series. Like that. The top four things should be a thing this year, right?

[Bill Simmons]

You have a home playoff series that could be against Miami, that could be against Milwaukee. Like, you want the home court, you want the. You want the game seven. And then when did they say Palo's coming back?

[Steve Cerruti]

Originally, I think it was six to eight weeks. But, I mean, that was like a reevaluation period. So we still have another at least month to go, which.

[Bill Simmons]

You know what?

[Peter Schrager]

It's all right.

[Steve Cerruti]

Like, just, you know, Franz's. Franz is holding it, holding it down. And, you know, I'm just hoping that, like, there was a little bit of, like, hey, you know, creeping into my mind of, like, can these two guys peak. Coexist together? Like, they're both good together, but can. And I'm just hoping, like, you know, because this team is so Franz dependent before he went out or before Paulo went down, like, I remember talking to Raheem about this. Like, this team's going to be awful to watch. Like, they might win some games, but awful. And they've been significantly better. So the hope is that, you know, Franz sort of realizes that, hey, I'm that dude, too, and I'm. I'm an all star caliber player, which I've thought for a while now, so we'll see.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I was wondering if they're going to be almost like the Steelers, where they're winning 18 to 16 and getting six field goals with, like, whatever the NBA version of that, but, yeah, they've been a little more fun than that. All right, Ceriti, who's winning the college football championship, by the way? Who do I bet on? Oh, man, you can pick any dude you bet on.

[Steve Cerruti]

Don't. Don't dip your toe into the Indiana waters, because we were talking about that in Priscilla's pod the other day, and we, like, set the Internet on fire because everyone's mad because he doesn't think Indiana is worthy of making the playoff. Even with a loss against Ohio State. I would say I'm. I think Oregon's still kind of vulnerable. I still kind of like Georgia, even though some of their weapons are bad. I. If I had to, like, make a bet right now, and this is just, like, not winning. Money aside, I still think Oregon's probably the pick, but it's wide open, man. It's. That's what's Kind of cool about this whole year is that there's, you know, three, four, five, six teams that are all kind of in that same, same area. But I'd go, I'd go Oregon. Now I love Dylan Gabriel. The quarterback is just like a dude that Wins games.

[Bill Simmons]

So Oregon's plus 145. Georgia is 24 to 1 on FanDuel.

[Steve Cerruti]

Yeah, the problem is Georgia's really good, but their quarterback has just been awful all season long. So if they just get average quarterback play, they're probably better than everybody else. But.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, well, that's it. I just did college football talk on the Bill Simmons podcast. We have Russell, we have McShane. Now we have way better places to do it. But Saruti, thank you. We're gonna take a break and come back with some football. Sometimes a basketball 30 points could be worth more than 30 points right now you get a 30% profit boost from the ringer with FanDuel's 30 on 30 during Friday's NBA cup action, we're teaming up with America's number one sportsbook to give you a 30% profit boost when you either pick a player to score more than 30 points or bet on our new exclusive 30 on 30 special markets like any game tab both teams to score 30 plus points in the first quarter. I messed around with this last week. I had a great time. I think I hit on Anthony Edwards. I missed on two others, but it was really fun to actually root. 30 points is perfect. You can check during the games like oh my God, my guy's got 27 points already. So there's a couple that jumped out to me. It's tough cause you're thinking about the matchup who's playing who but Cam Thomas against Philadelphia, that was one. I like that idea. I like the idea of Curry against New Orleans. The odds won't be great, but I still like it. And then the only other one I have is Sacramento versus the Clippers. Seems like a great Darren Darren Fox spot. So let's go with those three. Whether you want to ride with my picks or make it your own, look for 30 on 30 in the FanDuel Sportsbook app or head to FanDuel.com BS for your chance to score a bigger pat this Friday. Don't miss your chance to find out how much more 30 can be worth. The FanDuel is 30 on 30 must be 21 plus and President select states or 18 plus and President DC opt in required bonus issued at non withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply including token expiration and max wager amount C terms@sportsbook fando.com game prom call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com this episode is brought to you by State Farm. State Farm helps you score an affordable price when you choose to bundle home and auto insurance with the personal price plan. Bundling home and auto, that's a pro move. Just another way you can save on your insurance needs. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. This episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. There's a lot to be thankful for this season. I for one am thankful that I can get NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV right now for only $89. If I didn't have it, which I do because I got it super early. But you can get it right now for only $89. It's exactly what you need. As we head into the playoffs, invite your friends over. I did that on Sunday. Had a bunch of people over. We had the multi view going. I got the three TVs. We had six games going. We were. We were just going nuts. And the best thing is if there's eight games in an early window and you can only fit four or five, six, however many TVs you have, just keep switching them in and out. When the games get bad, you'll always have a bunch of good games up there. So I love the multiview. As you know, I am the Chief Multi View Officer of NFL Sunday Ticket. Thank yourself. This holiday season, get an NFL Sunday ticket for the rest of the NFL regular season. Again, it is just $89. Sign up right now at YouTube.com BS offer ends December 2nd. Terms and embargoes apply. Device and content restrictions apply. All right, our old friend Peter Schrager is here. You can watch him on Good Morning Football. You can see him on Fox. The last time I saw him we were in person doing a pod as the jets were falling apart. And somehow that's still going. We're not going to start with them though. We are heading into week 12. There's a bunch of bye weeks. Thanksgiving's coming up. We're hitting that second stage of the NFL season. We know who's good, we know who's not good. We know there's going to be one surprise team coming. We have a sense of the seven contenders are biggest surprise for you. After 11 weeks, you can say anything thing you're most shocked by the jets, rit you go to the Jets. See, I feel like I picked the jets to win the AFC east, but I also like was fully aware of this alternate universe where everything went wrong and that's what's happening.

[Peter Schrager]

All right, so that the. Just the fact that like I haven't bought into the hype over here. I live in New York. I grew up with all jets fans like, and I've never been one to say, well, this is the year, you know, they drafted Denzel Mims. This is the year, you know, they got Elijah Moore. This is going to be the year. And then I fell for it.

[Bill Simmons]

I've said you fell for it hard. There's MVP Rogers videos of you on the Internet's shameful.

[Peter Schrager]

And that whoever runs that freezing takes or that old takes exposed like he has no, he has no problem posting that every single time the jets lose a game of me saying that Rogers is going to be.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, mvp.

[Peter Schrager]

And we all have those. We've got them out there. It's fine. I, I will say this. I fell so hard this year for the jets because I look at the AFC and I'm like, there's an opening here. I didn't think Buffalo was going to be what they were. I had a feeling Miami would take it down. And I thought, you know, obviously New England. I was like, this is the year. There's a window. The, the C's are parting and the talent and the clip of US Talking Week 1 has gone viral again, has been reposted. And I still don't regret what I said. You go top to bottom on that roster. The names are outstanding, standing, and I guess I got caught up in it. And it's not fantasy football. And there is something called chemistry. And when you fire your coach five weeks into the season, that's not always going to be the greatest decision. And at the end of the day, I fell forward hard and I hand up. I fucked up. I was wrong. Jets suck. And it's, it's, it's, it's a shame because they're going to start, they're going to try to rebuild this thing. But that's.

[Bill Simmons]

By the way, everything you just said. We, we could probably just insert Sixers like as a voiceover for every piece of that. I fell for it. I didn't chemistry. I didn't realize it was going to go sideways, but we knew this was the risk with The Jets. Rodgers is old Rogers coming off major surgery. The son Reddick thing was weird. Salah had never had a winning season. They were trying to shoehorn this Rogers thing into the Jets. There are the Jets. Bad things happen with the Jets. I fell for it, too. I picked them over Buffalo. And what we, what both of us missed is what Sal nailed before the season.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

What if this is the Josh Allen year? And now it looks like it's the Josh Allen year.

[Peter Schrager]

He's your MVP through 12 weeks. Josh Allen's your MVP. And, you know, fantasy is so funny on these Sundays. I know. It's like he's. He's looking. It's Schadenfraud almost. But, like, his tweet is so prescient now that he did on the day, the Monday of week one, where he's basically like, just having it on record right now. I think this Aaron Rodgers thing is going to be a massive failure and everyone's going to get fired at the end of the year. The only wrong thing about it was it wasn't the end of the year. It was before even Thanksgiving. And he was right. So I was wrong on the jets, and, you know, I'll take my beating. The thing that's been a pleasant surprise and I didn't see it coming was what we got in Pittsburgh. And I think it's a really cool story. And of course, they're playing as we record this, they're playing tonight. And there's always weird things that happen on short weeks on Thursday nights and maybe division matchup.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, goofy weather, the whole thing.

[Peter Schrager]

Overall, though, like, if you told me that Russell Wilson was going to take a visit with the Giants, was going to fly commercial to Pittsburgh, was going to sell his wares as a potential future hall of Famer to these teams and say, who wants me? And that the Denver Broncos were going to pay 95% of his contract this season no matter who he went to because of what was already owed. And he would be the one leading the Pittsburgh Steelers into Thanksgiving as the 1 or 2 seed in the AFC. I would have told you you're crazy, so.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, you could have told me I was crazy because I predicted all of those things before the season. It was one of my best ones. Where's freezing cold takes on that?

[Peter Schrager]

Come on.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe they should have smoking hot takes. Should be an alternate account of people just crushing preseason picks. Where's that account?

[Peter Schrager]

I met the guy.

[Bill Simmons]

LeBron's right. And he's supposed to be the two negative. We're positive. Positive Stuff about the media. Come on. LeBron's out.

[Peter Schrager]

LeBron's out on social media.

[Bill Simmons]

He does this every year. Like when my wife gets mad at one of her friends so I'm not talking to her again. And then six weeks later, they're hanging out.

[Peter Schrager]

28 years on social media, now LeBron is out.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, he's done too toxic.

[Peter Schrager]

The guy's name was Fred Siegel. That's who does the freezing cold takes. And I got that. He, like, reached out to me, came on Good Morning Football. He did a book. I'm like, I love this guy. Now he's trying to murder my career. It is everything and comes out.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I think he's an equal opportunity murderer is where he's fashioned himself. I gotta say, the most shocking thing for me is Buffalo. I'm not shocked that they're, you know, gonna get to 10 wins. Cause that was if you were picking the jets over them. I thought there was only gonna be one AFC east playoff team, and I just thought the jets had more stacked their way than Buffalo in this goofy year they're having. So Buffalo winning the AFC east and the jets stinking, not that surprising to me. But Buffalo being good is surprising. I don't really fully understand it. I don't know enough about, like, the mechanics of how you get a defense going that seems pretty flimsy. And yet when you watch them, like, hats on the ball, sideline, locked in, really well coached, really seems like they're across the board, locked in, don't really have any weaknesses, which is crazy because they've had a lot of attrition, they've had injuries. And I just don't fully understand it. Like weird rookie receivers and young receivers or never did it before receivers. A hodgepodge running game with a bunch of running backs. I just don't fully get it.

[Peter Schrager]

They're so good. And what they've done is they've like, they've. They've found ways to win games that they used to lose. So that Chiefs game, of course they've beaten the Chiefs three different times the regular season. But, like, there was that window where it's like, okay, here comes Kansas City. And after the third and one that they go, I think they handed it to Ty Johnson for a one yard loss. Yeah, bad play. You're like, all right, fourth and two. Remember last year in the playoffs, they trotted out the punt team and they ran a fake punt with demar Hamlin on fourth down. And that one was justifiable in that they couldn't stop Kansas City. Kansas City was going up and down the field. I think Mahomes scored in five of six possessions. Like, all right, we did fine. McDermott took a beating. He became a punching bag. Everyone made their jokes. They had the courage to say, you know what? Screw it, we're going for it again. And if we fail and come up short and we lose, like, we'll deal with Monday night.

[Bill Simmons]

You think that was courage, though? Because sometimes I'm like, why are they doing this? But usually I'm saying, why are they doing this? When your quarterbacks like Jameis Winston, right, Or you're. Or you have like a rookie quarterback, you're like, why are they doing this? They're not good.

[Peter Schrager]

They're up to. They're up to.

[Bill Simmons]

I like, I like. I thought Romo. Romo sniffed it out. He's like, give the ball to Josh, let him decide the game. I was like, I actually agree. Let him decide the game.

[Peter Schrager]

And of course it works out. And Josh is Superman. And that's an amazing. It's one of the all time, like of that rivalry. That's a play that like goes on the list. If they'd kicked the field goal and they'd gone up five, it reminds me a little bit of LaFleur against the Buccaneers in that AFC Championship NFC Championship game a few years back where it's like, we just got to stop them once and we get the ball back. They didn't want to do that. And that, that's with scar tissue from the year before of not wanting to do that and getting burned on it with that fake punt. So McDarley.

[Bill Simmons]

But you know what that was? It was a risky non risk because they had like a five game lead in the AFC East. It's like you lose that game and it's like, all right, so maybe we're going to be a three seed instead of a two seed. But it really wasn't a massive risk, like if the Ravens did something like that this week when they're 7 and 4, you know, and it's a must win game against the Chargers. A little more. A little higher stakes on that one than I think. Buffalo.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah. I also think it was a gift for us in our world as a media, because Kansas City wins that, then they have a three game lead over Buffalo, plus the tiebreaker. And it's like, all right, we've already got. Our playoff picture is wide open now.

[Bill Simmons]

And Buffalo, Christmas Day is not going to suck.

[Peter Schrager]

Christmas Day games is like an AFC semifinals. You've got the Texans and the Ravens, and you've got the Steelers and the Chiefs. So I think it was a huge game. It was a huge win. And as much as Josh Allen downplayed it, and I know a lot of people on Monday morning, our guy, Kyle Brandt was like, as a Bills guy, he's like, that was nothing.

[Bill Simmons]

Like, stop.

[Peter Schrager]

Like, don't make a big deal to this. It was a. It was a Week 11 game in a hundred years. Well, forget about it. I felt the opposite. And traditionally, I'm the Chiefs guy. I picked the Chiefs to win every year, and I've. I've made a lot of bones in the playoffs, and, you know, they're going on the road to Baltimore. They're going to win. They're going on the road to Buffalo. Last year, they're going to win. I thought that one. I thought, like, Buffalo was the better team. They were. They were more dynamic. They felt like they had more deep threats, and, gosh, I thought they were a better coach, too. So I thought that was a big win for Buffalo.

[Bill Simmons]

Do you agree with my theory that they kept Kelsey in the garage for that game?

[Peter Schrager]

A Ferrari. I heard you talking about that with Sal.

[Bill Simmons]

It felt like, let's not show all our cards in this game. Game. By then, the thing I was most concerned about with the Chiefs and especially, like, listening to some pods and reading stuff over the next couple of days after the game, their tackles might not be good, right? And they figured out a way to kind of, you know, Scotch tape shit together. We've seen them do this a million times, but it seems like both tackles aren't really any good now. And I don't know if they can get something going from there, but from an offensive line standpoint, this feels like the shakiest they've been. Right? Yeah.

[Peter Schrager]

And look, the last time their tackles gave us those questions was going to the super bowl against the Buccaneers. And they didn't have. They didn't have Fisher, they didn't have Schwartz. And we're like, all right, but they'll figure it out. And then the Buccaneers, you know, obviously manhandled them at the line of scrimmage and then lost.

[Bill Simmons]

By the way, where's freezing cold takes for that guy? We. Multiple videos of us guaranteeing a buck super bowl win. I don't see. I don't see him digging those up. Jesus.

[Peter Schrager]

Freddy Siegel. Anyway, the. The. The other part of it is, like, you know, they throw that. They try to get worthy involved early, and I was like, a little bit of this being chippy, like, you know, the Bills traded us this guy. We're going to get, we're going to get Worthy involved. Then Worthy steps out of bounds when he has the whole field one foot and you're like, that's not Chiefs football. Like, that doesn't go that way. So.

[Bill Simmons]

By the way, that was Patriots football is what it was. I've watched that all year. Wide open, guys stepping out of bounds, terrible blocking, stupid strategies. That's Pat's football.

[Peter Schrager]

Right now I get worried about the Chiefs with that because their defense has led the way for them. They're special teams. Has been awesome now, but gers down and now the Spencer Schrader is going to have to make a couple big kicks. We'll see. But like, who's scaring you besides Mahomes? And you could say it's because, hey, when you need him, Kelsey's going to go 10 for 120 with two touchdowns. Maybe he hasn't been that guy. I know he's a couple of big statistical games the last few weeks, but like, I don't think Kelsey's doing like he was doing it a couple of years ago. And then, you know, you're throwing the ball to Noah Gray and Justin Watson and juju, like. And Xavier Worthy is a nice deep threat. But I just don't know if this Chiefs team has enough firepower. And it sounds crazy to say that with an Andy Reid offense that has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

[Bill Simmons]

We said it last year in December. It was one of the, I mean, I think their bottom three explosive plays this year, which seems crazy for our Mahomes team. Like, if you have Mahomes in fantasy, hasn't gone great. But we watched them reinvent themselves after that Christmas game, Christmas Eve game, whenever.

[Peter Schrager]

I was in the 16th straight after.

[Bill Simmons]

They immediately reinvent themselves. They're also, they're built when the weather gets colder. That's going to be good for them, too. I don't think it's going to be as good for some of the other teams. So I'm not, I'm not panicking. And by the way, they almost won the game. And I do think if Worthy hadn't stepped out of bounds, they probably win the game. But on the other hand, you're relying on Worthy in these big spots. It's going to be the same situation in January.

[Peter Schrager]

But who'd you have? Super Bowl. You had Lions winning it all.

[Bill Simmons]

I had. I ended up with Lions over Texans.

[Peter Schrager]

Okay. Still alive.

[Bill Simmons]

Right before the season, I felt like the Chiefs had become undervalued and I Did a Lions cheat? Lions, Chiefs super bowl bet that was like 30. All the Lions stuff is going to hit one seed NFC north like I think that's been the least surprising thing is the Lions kind of they were were who they thought they it was the opposite of Danny Green. The Lions were who we thought they were.

[Peter Schrager]

They were who they thought they were. I did Chiefs over Packers and my packers caveat you're not done with that and I'm not done with that. And my packers caveat was they're going to do it as a wild card because the Lions are going to be the one seed and going to run away with this thing. So that's all still in play the truth.

[Bill Simmons]

One thing on the packers we're going to know this weekend. I think we're going to have a real feeling because they have a nice game against the Niners that they should win. We're going to talk about a million dollar picks later. That's if if something good is going to happen to them in January. I need them to win the Niners game and if they don't, I'm going to be probably, probably tapping out.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Peter Schrager]

The Lions have been an interesting one because it's been like this locomotive and they really will be one of the only teams in the league yet in 2024 where everyone's buddy and exchanging jerseys like they'll snap your neck. They don't care like they I saw a stat they scored more than 50 points three times from the year 1920 to the year 2023. They've already scored more than 50 points twice this year and they have embarrassed teams and they've also won close games which is obviously the Vikings game with Jake Bates hitting those fields and then the comeback game with against the Texans. So they've won in a variety of different yeah the where they overcame Goff's, you know, five interceptions and still had to found a way. So like I kind of like it that it's not just been 07 Patriots or 2013 Broncos where they just rip every team apart like they've been in games too and they've won those as.

[Bill Simmons]

Well and some adversity. It's not like everything went great this year. Hutchinson going down the best defensive front four guy in the league. They lost their defensive captain two weeks ago though. I like the David Log signing. I thought that was I was surprised he got waived. I liked him. A couple years ago Jameson Williams got suspended. Goff had the five pick game. You know it hasn't been perfect but they're doing the. They're almost like a college football team some games.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

They're not just beating teams. They're like absolutely select. When you score seven straight touchdowns to start a game, that's like a. You're on a different level at that point.

[Peter Schrager]

Seven straight possessions. It's wild.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, it's great super bowl ads.

[Peter Schrager]

They're the. It's the first time ever in their history. Now, I don't know how far back these gambling sites go, but I saw it was the first time ever that they are the super bowl favorite ever.

[Bill Simmons]

It has to be. When. I mean, it is Eric Kramer and Barry Sanders. I don't. I don't think they're the favorites. Yeah, they're plus 350 right now. The Chiefs are five to one. The Bills are plus 650. And then the Eagles are sitting there at eight to one. Houston's at 17 to one. It's. It, it does feel a little hodgepodgey. Like you look at some of the super bowl matchups because they have all the different matchups and it's like, you know, you. Let's say. Let's say I still feel like the Chiefs to win the super bowl until they have actually lost the super bowl, it's still in my head. I'm always going to be afraid of that one for alliance thing. But the Chiefs to beat The Lions is 14 to 1. But you look at some of these other dopey ones, like Chiefs to beat Arizona is 85 to 1. It's not insane that Arizona could make the Super. I'm not really that ruling out anyone is my point as good as Detroit's. Look, I'm not really on anyone. I'm just not.

[Peter Schrager]

Well, it's just that with Detroit, it's like, all right, let's say they have home field advantage. They won two playoff games there last year. They beat the Rams and they beat the Bucks. They did fine. And then they went in the road and lost. And it's like how it usually works is you don't. With the rare exception of maybe the Eagles a couple of years ago with foals or like the 99 Rams, where you just come out of literally nowhere and you're like, we're. We're just going to win a Super Bowl. We're going to. Usually you have to go through the progression of you go and you go to the playoffs and you lose a tough one and then you win another round.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Did it.

[Peter Schrager]

So, like, it's all there for them. I just have thoughts of Dan Campbell high management game management close game late. Going up against a McVeigh, going up against maybe a Kyle Shanahan who everyone has their own issues with at the end of games, but like has been there also time and time again. It's that kind of stuff that it's an intangible and you can't do it until you do it. But just as so many teams have gotten to the precipice and had to lose a couple times before they got to that over the hump, maybe this is Detroit needing one more year. We'll see.

[Bill Simmons]

That was my case when I picked them. That there is like actual history and I think there were four different instances of the team that got really close the year before, learned, you know, learned something and then was able to apply it and either win the super bowl or come really close. And I think it happened like five times in the last year.

[Peter Schrager]

Remember the Rol Ravens lost to you guys. Lee Evans dropped the pass and then Billy C. Yeah. And then the very next year they're like, screw it, they go into Foxboro, they beat you guys, and then they go in and win the Super Bowl. Like that's a recent memory of a team that had to lose and then found a way to win, you know.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Let's. Let's take a break and we'll, we'll. There's a lot more to discuss. This episode is brought to you by the all new reimagined Nissan Kicks. From the bold new exterior to the performance and tech features like intelligent all wheel drive and a Bose Personal plus sound system. Cars where I live, I live in the Los Angeles area and cars are one of the most important things you can have because you're in them a lot because you got to drive around all over the place. You know what's fun? To have a nice car for an everyday commute, to have music and the ability to do hands free stuff. And just to feel safe, you can do it. Drive the all new reimagined Nissan Kicks today. Head over to Nissan USA to learn more. Bose Personal plus sound system is an available feature. Bose is a registered trademark in the Bose Corporation. Intelligent all wheel drive cannot prevent collisions or provide enhanced traction in all conditions. Always monitor traffic and weather conditions. This episode is brought to you by Simplisafe. It is football season, which means the holidays are coming up and actually Simplisafe is already having a Black Friday sale. So if you're worried about the safety of your home and family, now is the time to get home. Security I personally like to use Simplisafe because they can stop intruders before they break into your home. That's kind of the goal.

[Peter Schrager]

I think.

[Bill Simmons]

They take home security to the next level if they're active guard outdoor protection. It's not an old school system. They only take action when somebody is already in your house. No, that's not Simplisafe. They take action before somebody gets in your house. There's no long term contracts, no cancellation fees. It's around $1 a day and it gives me peace of mind and helps me and my family feel protected. So take advantage of this Black Friday sale this week only. Right now you can take 60% off any new system with a select professional monitoring plan. Head to SimpliSafe.com BS to claim your discount and make sure your home is safe this season. Keep your home, your family and your peace of mind protected with Simplisafe again, go to simplisafe.com/bs that is SimpliSafe with two eyes. There's no safe like Simplisafe. This episode is brought to you by Imes Pet Food. We're all picky when it comes to our pets and their meals. When you choose Iams dry dog or cat food, you can see a difference in your pet with your own eyes. Healthy energy in five days. Healthy digestion in 10 days. Healthy skin and coat in just 25 days. Satisfaction for you and them guaranteed or your money back. Feed Iams dry dog or cat food and see a visible difference. Visit iams.com that is I a m s.com difference to learn more. Well, now we hit the portion of the podcast where I make my guests talk about Drake May for 60 seconds. This is unbelievable. This whole week watching football Twitter, people like Orlovsky weighed in a couple times. All the football experts, like, who's the guy? Colin has Cosell. He came in film guy. All the film guys are coming in. Like you guys don't realize what Drake May is doing right now. You don't understand what's happening here. I've been going nuts. I can't this the most I've texted about the pat since like the flick 8. This is the most excited I've been. F minus coaching staff, no receivers. Can't really block running backs that can't do anything. So I just. This is where I make my guests talk about Drake May. So talk about Drake.

[Peter Schrager]

Maybe he's been unbelievable. And I talked to McVeigh Monday morning.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, McVeigh was another one.

[Peter Schrager]

Gosh, they called him a stud. In that press conference. And I hit up Sean just to talk about, you know, their game, whatever. And then I also said, like, let's talk May. And he was just like, that guy. I mean, they got their guy. That guy's unbelievable. Like, what a, what a performance. And the stat I got from my researcher at Good Morning Football, great guy named Dante says this was the second time in May's career that he threw the ball 40 times or more, completed at 70% of his passes, and only two other rookies in the history of the sport have done that. And it's Justin Herbert and it's Joe Burrow and like Drake May's already done it twice. Like we're talking. And he does 95% of the offense, which you've noted. Like, it's just like, throw it on my shoulders. I'll figure it out.

[Bill Simmons]

And they're not even running the right place for him. Like half the time you're like, what was that? Why did we do that? What are we doing?

[Peter Schrager]

He's doing it with talent that might not be starting on other NFL rosters, which is, I think, a kind thing to say. The offensive line leaves a lot to be desired. The coaching isn't exactly the offensive line.

[Bill Simmons]

Like, Cole Strange is coming back. And we're like, Cole Strange is coming back. He's back, baby. We have another guard.

[Peter Schrager]

It's coming. It's been really cool to see, in fact, this whole rookie class and not to get off the Drake May conversation.

[Bill Simmons]

No, we're good. You gave me a minute. We can move on.

[Peter Schrager]

All had. They've all had their moments. And like, as great as Drake May was in the early window on Sunday, I know everyone was watching Bill's, Bill's Chiefs, like, Bo Nicks was fucking amazing.

[Bill Simmons]

He's gotten better every week for like six weeks.

[Peter Schrager]

And Moose Johnston was doing the game and he dropped his little nugget and I'm like, oh, I don't. I didn't know that. Like, Moose is like, we spoke to Sean Payton in the production meeting, which we always talk about the value of the production meeting, whether you're there or you're not, Believe it or not. And he's like. And he said he liked Knicks more than all these rookie quarterbacks in the draft. Like, that's crazy. He was the sixth one taken. Like, wow, I believe it. It's the perfect match. There was no crazy ramp up period for him. He's 26 years old. He's played in 61 college games. He's seen it all. He's played at big programs, Auburn and Oregon. He's had failure, he's had success. He's done the Senior Bowl. Sean Payton does not want to work with a raw product and unpolished guy that he's got to like frustrate himself with. He wants them to run his offense as like an avatar of himself. Like, here's what you're going to do and do it. There was a pass he had to Cortland Sutton where it was a play action pass rolled right, pumped it twice and then like dropped it in the bucket to Sutton over AJ Terrell. And I'm like, that's a 10 year vet play that he just did and he's doing it. So I say all this because May's having moments, Knicks is having moments. Of course we did. Jaden. Caleb's been good and we don't know what we're going to get from Penn.

[Bill Simmons]

Caleb's been, Caleb's been, Caleb's had moments. Okay. He looked pretty good last time.

[Peter Schrager]

Sacked 44 times. It's the most since David Carr in his rookie year. Like I, Caleb, I can give Caleb a lot of mulligans on this season. I feel like he's been given a tough draw this whole way, whether it be the offensive line tougher than Drake May. Fair. Fair. And you saw what Gruden said. Gruden said he'd rather have Drake May than Caleb. I'm like, it's all over the map.

[Bill Simmons]

I loved it. Gruden adding, we, the superstar Drake May island we're handing out right now or Lafsky has one.

[Peter Schrager]

But I do have to ask you, did we not? Okay, and I'm not trying to go and be viral for, for everyone else here, but did we not go down this road with Mac Jones, you and I before? But this one feels a little different.

[Bill Simmons]

It feels, it's completely different.

[Peter Schrager]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Mac Jones, it was like really good game manager. This guy can keep us going, he can make some throws. And this Drake May thing, he's doing it despite literally everybody else in every fashion. And I also think seems like he's won the locker room over too.

[Peter Schrager]

Oh, and how about he gets to the press conference two weeks ago, he's like, everyone put your phones down. I would just like to say, how about that defense? Let's clock it up. I'm like, there's a 22 year old kid. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

No, he's, he's figured out all those pieces and you could tell like from the other coaches and the players that are going against them some of the quotes. Whereas, like with Mac, it was like, yeah, he's pretty good. You know, it's like it was never like this. But Mac, I don't know what happened to Mack. I still feel like there's a sliding doors universe. And it really kind of started when Belichick benched him for a lot of that win Buffalo game. Remember that his rookie year when it was like, wins Monday night, kind of never the same. But there was a. He played at Colts, I think on a Sunday night and the Colts just defended him a certain way and it was like it immediately broke him. They just like, they were like, throw over us.

[Peter Schrager]

I think I remember. I think it was a Saturday game.

[Bill Simmons]

Saturday game.

[Peter Schrager]

Maybe it was a Saturday night game on NFL Network. And like the Colts, just the defense and the, and the special teams won the game for the Colts. And it was like, oh, there's. That's him. I, I would add, you know, with, with, with Drake May and you and I have talked about this. I'm not sure on this podcast or just you and I talking. Like, the Patriots, they love this guy in the building and it goes from top to bottom, front office, own. Like, I know the impression he made because I know a lot of the folks in that building. When he signed his rookie contract, he showed up and all his brothers showed up and his high school girlfriend showed up and it was like this big deal. And like I, I got a text from someone in the building, like, that's such a Schrager stupid intangible thing that if he stinks, like, what was the point of him talking about it? Like they loved it. They were like, this is what we want. We want someone who like, wants to put his roots down here and we can just build around this guy. And he is as loyal as it comes to family, to his friends, to his faith. It's all the right stuff on paper. And then now you see it on the field and it's like, oh, these guys are going to rally behind this guy for 10 years.

[Bill Simmons]

He's. When Nate Tice was comparing him to Elway, that was like the comp. Because I, I couldn't quite get there with the Josh Allen because it was big enough. All right, we talked too much about him. I can't wait 10 years from now when he's bitter because 93 year old Kraft is spending the least amount of money on the team out of the 32 owners. It's like, I don't know, like right now he's like in that young, loyal puppy stage that is just so great to.

[Peter Schrager]

I do, I do like, I do like how this team has responded. You know, we go back and forth. I know you're, you're, you're the Patriots voice. But like Belichick and Lombardi and Patricia were feeling themselves a little bit after that soft comment and they were joking and they were making their snide comments and I felt it. I understand they've won a couple games and the players seem to be playing for Mayo, whether or not he's an X's and O is genius or they have ping pong in the locker room or what. This has been vacillating back and forth. There was, there's obviously Kraft and Belichick lines here and it's like, I don't know where I am on it, but.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, this was a better argument a week ago. The coaching last week was an F minus. Minus. Minus. I know it was probably the worst coaching they've had all year. So I said it straight up.

[Peter Schrager]

It's not been good.

[Bill Simmons]

But like they're a live dog. This week though, they're plus seven in Miami. And I don't know, I just think week to week they're going to be really hard to predict because they easily could have beaten the Rams. Last week they were up on the Rams. Yeah. By the way, let's talk about the Rams for a second because you're pretty wired in with them.

[Peter Schrager]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

Pretty lucky to beat the Pats. A team that made a ton of mistakes, that the coaching was abysmal. Then they're playing the Eagles this week and all my instincts should be like, I'm taking the Eagles. The Rams are kind of fraudulent and yet I kind of like McVay against the Eagles. I don't know why, I don't know what it is, but him against Fangio, Like, I love the way Stafford played last week. I thought he was awesome. Like their receivers are back.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

They can run the ball. Williams is really crafty.

[Peter Schrager]

Oh, dude.

[Bill Simmons]

There were times when it felt like the Pats had him behind the line and he would just figure out how to get five yards anyway, but. And then their defensive line can really collapse the pocket and do some stuff. So I look at that. I think that's one of the hardest games to figure out. I don't know if I'm going to be putting a million dollar picks, but are the Rams a playoff team to you?

[Peter Schrager]

That loss to Miami on Monday Night Football is really a slap in the face to everyone who got on that bandwagon. That was maybe the worst loss any team's had this season. It's just surprising. Like you had a couple wins in a row, you're back in this thing and then here come this Dolphins team who just kicked their ass on national television in their building Patriots. They should have won. They did win. It wasn't easy. You get back to this one. Now what the testament to the Rams is that Aaron Donald retires and you know the thought is their defense going to go down. They drafted Verse. He's probably your defensive player.

[Bill Simmons]

The all over the place.

[Peter Schrager]

It's either Mitchell all over the place.

[Bill Simmons]

He's awesome about him.

[Peter Schrager]

Braden Fisk's the other one also from Florida State. Second rounder. Their third round pick was Cam Kitchens who's had two huge picks this season. The pick six against Seattle and he had another interception that game and then the game winning the interception against you guys last week. And they got this guy Omar Spates who's undrafted and wears number 48 and is all over the field and had the big fourth down stop against Seattle in overtime. Now what I'm saying is with all this it's like you could do the F them picks and you can be super aggressive and you can go and make you better nail the draft. And they have nailed the draft and they've found a way to recover from Aaron Donald retiring and no first round picks for the last seven years. They've been really good with on that.

[Bill Simmons]

Point McFace said something interesting about how they didn't really scout may cause they knew they had no chance in them. And I was wondering like is that an advantage when you either don't have first round picks at all so there's people like you're not even. You might as well just cross off 40 guys. You know you're not going to get or you're just concentrating on a certain portion of the draft versus like having to think about every round. I do wonder if that's kind of a weird advantage that you wouldn't want but you kind of stumble into.

[Peter Schrager]

Sean had a really fun time this draft period. Now quarterback was not going to happen. They were fine with quarterback with Stafford but like this was his first first round pick ever. So he was super excited. And I said on Good Morning Football I'm like there is no chance that in his first time making a first round pick Sean McVay isn't taking an offensive player. Sure enough they took Jared Verse. They took a defensive guy second round egg on my face. The guy that he loved though and I could say it now and it's been reported they loved Brock Bowers, the tight end out of Georgia. They loved him. And when he started slipping, McVeigh was getting the snappy fingers and like that. Well, what can we do? What could we do? I believe they've made some phone calls to move up to get Bowers. It's a great what if because Brock Bowers is now having the best rookie tight end season ever on an irrelevant team.

[Bill Simmons]

10 to 13 targets a week on an awful default. Yeah.

[Peter Schrager]

And the fact is, though, it's what you're saying. They weren't going quarterback, but like, McVeigh finally had a chance to look at blue chip talent, first round talent in a real way, not in a. Well, there's a chance someone might slip or we might trade up. And he really enjoyed the process. So as much as an advantage that might be to. To have a second round pick and not have to worry about the first round. So you can look at deeper cut, like lower. It was. It was cool for him to get that. And then the scouts, they were all in on Verse. Credit to Les Snead and his guys. Like, if Verse falls to that far, like, we've got to find a way to get a new cornerstone defensive player. And I think they found him.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, there was that one year when they didn't have Cole. They were looking at Cole Strange because they were like picking in the third round and the Pats took him and McVeigh's like, wait, Cole Strange just went in the first round. We were looking at him and incredible moment. Oh, my God, we might have fucked that pickup. That this guy went in the top 30.

[Peter Schrager]

He came out the next day and was like, no, no, no, no, no. That's not what I was saying. We were actually surprised. I don't think they had.

[Bill Simmons]

No. Yeah, that. Nobody's believed you on that one. But the flip side was he came all the way around on Drake Bay. So The Rams are plus 360 to make the playoffs. That seems tough. Seattle is plus 290 to make the playoffs. Arizona is minus 140 to make the playoffs. And then the most shocking one to me, which isn't that shocking, is the Niners plus money right now, plus 176. I want to talk about them really quick.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

McCaffrey doesn't look like McCaffrey. Nope.

[Peter Schrager]

Didn't look like.

[Bill Simmons]

And it's. The Niners are the classic. Oh, if I. If I saw the sheet of paper, like, whoa, they have a lot of good guys. But if you actually watch the games like Iuk's gone. Kittle's. Kittle missed last week, so he's hit the George Kittle red flag stage of his season, which happens every year. Debo's been hurt a bunch of times already. Juwan Jennings had to make big plays last week, but McCaffrey just didn't seem special to me last week. And I don't know if it's going to take some time to come back or is this who he is? I don't think their offensive lines is good. I don't think their defense is as good. And I feel like they're still getting basically last year's value being treated that way versus what I'm watching.

[Peter Schrager]

I don't think it's just last year. I think it's the institutional knowledge that over the last five years they've started off being like 3 and 4, 2 and 3, 4 and 4. And then they, they turn it on and they get to the playoffs and they're really hard team to beat in the playoffs. I too am watching them though last week against Seattle and Nick Bosa clearly hurt. It's a hip, it's an oblique. Clearly not himself. You don't have Arik Armstead out there anymore. You're now a couple years removed from not having Buckner out there anymore. All of a sudden you look around, you're like, I don't even recognize this defense. It's Fred Warner doing everything he can as he always does. It's an injured Bosa and it's a bunch of younger guys on the back end. And it's like, I'm not scared of this defense like I used to be when it was D'Amico Ryan's and Robert Salah marching up and down the sidelines, puffing out their chest to give up an 80 yard drive to Geno Smith after you held them most of the game and then especially that final plays like head scratching, not their way. What's killing them is they lost a terrible, terrible loss in Los Angeles where the receiver Bell drops a pass that would put the game away at 21 to 7. That's in a division they lost to the Cardinals. That's in the division they've now lost to the Seahawks in the division. You got to really dig yourself out of the hole because I think their best way to the playoffs is going to be winning that division. Huge, massive, massive game this weekend against the packers. And to your point, they usually own the packers and Shanahan's had good numbers against LaFleur. I think he's 4 and 2 all time. But I go to the big games, I go to playoff games. And yeah, I think Raheem Mostert just scored another touchdown from the NFC Championship game back in 2020. I remember a couple of years ago on a Saturday night, everyone. Rogers was public enemy number one with the COVID stuff, and everyone was taking shots at him. And he comes in as the one seed, and the Niners come in with Trent Williams and a boombox out of the locker room. And they beat them in Lambeau and shocked the one seed on a Saturday night. And it's like the Niners just have their number. I don't know if it's that same Niners team. The faces might be the same. The coach might still be the same. But, like, do I have any confidence that that 49er squad that I've seen the last few weeks limp to victories and just get by in their wins and then lose strange games they never lose is going to come in and just push around the Packers? I don't.

[Bill Simmons]

One more piece. Packers almost beat them in that playoff game when it was a healthier Niners team last year and probably should have won.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah. Bad kicking, huh?

[Bill Simmons]

Little revenge game for them in this one. And I'm with you. I think the Packers, I think the ceiling of the team versus what we've seen. I still believe in the ceiling. And I don't think they've played that well. And I think they've had some weird stuff happen, really. Starting with that crazy Brazil game.

[Peter Schrager]

It was. It's a weird way to say.

[Bill Simmons]

And they got super lucky last week against the Bears. They're also playing. One thing that worries me about that game for them is they're. They're playing on Thursday night, too. They're playing the Dolphins. Right. So you have this huge game at home against the Niners, but you also know that other game is kind of lingering afterwards.

[Peter Schrager]

It's a. Thanks. It's Thanksgiving evening.

[Bill Simmons]

Thanksgiving night.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And I always wonder, like, the game before the game. The good news is they're playing the Dolphins. That game. Pretty mediocre things.

[Peter Schrager]

Dolphins have won a couple games in a row.

[Bill Simmons]

No, I know. Yeah. But now they got Drake May coming to Miami. There's also some weird weather stuff this week, too.

[Peter Schrager]

Oh, there's snow. Snow in Green Bay. Jordan Love leaves league and interceptions. Like, you're not wrong. Like, they don't look crisp.

[Bill Simmons]

And then before the season, like, Dobbs got suspended for a game. Like, there's been. It looks a little gamey at Times, right.

[Peter Schrager]

And. And, like, you know, I don't. I don't know if it's a positive or negative. Now, in the early 2000s, the Patriots had this where it was like, you didn't really have a true number one wide receiver. And the floor said that before the season. Like, we. I look at all those guys, number ones. But every week it's like Jaden Reed's week, then it's Dobbs this week, and last week, Watson went nuts. So I kind of like that there.

[Bill Simmons]

Was a Tucker Kraft week.

[Peter Schrager]

Oh, Tucker Kraft. He killed the Rams. And then the next week had two touchdowns.

[Bill Simmons]

Like, he does nothing anymore.

[Peter Schrager]

It's okay. It's all right. He'll find his saying, Josh Jacobs obviously is a weapon. And, like, we could just list names, but to me, it's. They haven't even come close to gelling on offense yet, and they're still seven and three, and they're perfectly where you want to be. Like, let the Lions get all the headlines. Let the Vikings be sitting there with a tiebreaker over that. Like, let that be there. And then stretch run. Here comes the come running team. And the come running team might very well be the packers, who got their shit together at the right time.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. Maybe as a five seed, maybe as a six seed. We're aligned on this one. There's a scenario in my head this weekend where I'm trying to think of the narratives on Monday morning as you're staring at Kyle, where it's like, packers, whoa. Do we believe this? Niners. Oh, no. Like, they're not going to make the playoffs. Holy shit. And then there's this sneaky Lions game, and I'm going to full disclosure, I'm putting the lines in a tease, but it does have, like. Does it a little sneaky? Just. It's a little sneaky because Richardson, I thought, played pretty well last week, and I thought in general, the Colts played pretty well. And you know, everyone's so high in the Lions right now coming off this giant win, and I think they can run the ball over them. I'm not worried about it, but I was just wondering, like, could this be one of these now? Yeah. Packers only a game back.

[Peter Schrager]

Totally. And like, one of these weeks, the Lions are going to have that game. But gosh, they. I thought the Titans might have gotten. Because Titans came in with the number one defense.

[Bill Simmons]

They lit them up.

[Peter Schrager]

But the Jaguars may be playing for Doug Peterson's job with all that stuff beforehand.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, I'm glad you brought him up because that was the Thing I was, that was the thing I was the most wrong about this season was like the Jets. I walked in with with eyes wide open, fully knowing it was 50 50. I really believed in the Jags as an AFC playoff team.

[Peter Schrager]

So did I. So did I.

[Bill Simmons]

And for me, it came down to them versus Denver for that last spot. And I couldn't get there with Denver because of the defense. Ironically, their defense statistically has been awesome. If you looked at it before the season, it's like I don't see it what's in here. And I thought Jacksonville. And meanwhile it's been the opposite. They're one of the five worst teams in the league. Doug's doing the dead man walking. Didn't even fire him after a 52 to 6 loss.

[Peter Schrager]

They still might like we're doing this on Thursday. They've got bye week. Like I don't know how they that's going to go down.

[Bill Simmons]

I well, this is going up fast. So maybe if this happens Thursday night the potter would be up. So you think, you think it's still in play?

[Peter Schrager]

So I think it's still in play. I think after that loss on Sunday and all the reports that aren't coming from nobody that he was on, you know, he's on the death watch. Anyway, like I they have a bye week. Who knows what the cons have going on this week. They might be wrestling or something else going on that they wanted to deal with in the first part of the week. But like I certainly don't think I would be sleeping great if I'm Doug Peterson. No, he knows Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Like he knows what's going on.

[Bill Simmons]

He's got a statue. Are there any other coaching situations we should just be monitoring? Maybe guy's not about to get fired, but situations that seem a little rockier than maybe it seems to the outside. Like, are we cool with Cleveland these days? What's going on there?

[Peter Schrager]

It's fine in Cleveland. Two time coach of the year and I know the relationship he has with ownership and there's like full trust in him. So I think he's fine. I there was a erroneous report that Dable was on the hot seat. I don't think that's true. I think they both sit in New York Bears.

[Bill Simmons]

Do we watch the Bears the next.

[Peter Schrager]

Oh yeah, we watch.

[Bill Simmons]

Or is that already a wrap?

[Peter Schrager]

We watch the Bears. We see how they respond. Anytime you fire a coordinator and things don't get better, the next person is not the coordinator. Like that's, that's the stuff that we look at there.

[Bill Simmons]

Should I start doing that? Should I start firing inner circle people when I don't like what's going on? To deflect, blame your fault. Work in the outside world, not your fault. I don't know what's going on over there.

[Peter Schrager]

That's it. This podcast isn't a weird strategy.

[Bill Simmons]

I've had to change my offensive coordinator. You're the head coach.

[Peter Schrager]

You know the sick part about that was Thomas Brown called a really nice game for the Bears last week, and Caleb looked good and energy was hot. And it's all for. Not like they still lost.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, but. But think about one of the things, like in the stories, in the dialogue after. It's like Thomas Brown simplified it for Caleb, wanted to get rid of the ball fast. He got rid of the ball within three seconds. It's like, why didn't you do that three weeks ago? I could have. You could have asked me, just called me cold, called me. I would have told you he was holding on the ball too long. Like, needed a new offensive coordinator to figure that out.

[Peter Schrager]

I'm a McVeigh guy, obviously. Thomas worked for McVeigh for many years over there in LA, and before that was a University of Georgia running back and before played high school football against McVay. So, like, McVay's been singing about this guy for a decade. So he goes and gets this job at Carolina, a big promotion, flames out horribly, everyone gets fired, and he goes to Chicago and it's like he finally gets a chance to be an offensive coordinator. And like, I. He was high energy. He was.

[Bill Simmons]

Let's go.

[Peter Schrager]

Let's. And I'm wondering, I'm like, you know, Shane Waldron, also respected guy, like, and Matt Eberfluss. Those are not like high energy. Like, those are not big vocal guys. Meanwhile, you look at the booth and Thomas Brown is like, super into it. He's pumping his fist and I'm like, as stupid as that sounds, like sometimes the young quarterback needs that just a little bit of juice. Like, let's go. So I'm curious to see how the rest of the season plays out. Plays out for him.

[Bill Simmons]

That's like what you did for me with million dollar picks that year when I was slump and you came in, you had just had a ton of energy.

[Peter Schrager]

Midseason edition, baby.

[Bill Simmons]

Let's go. Well, Joe Brady seems like he's emerged as a possible head coaching dude. You have the Chargers defensive coordinator Minter in the mix for stuff. You have Belichick, you have Vrabel, you Have Ben Johnson, who I think just wants to sit at the bar in a cocktail dress and have people buy him drinks. I'm not sure he actually ever wants to be a head coaching job.

[Peter Schrager]

Not even, like, two years ago, he was a Carolina guy and Tepper was, like, in on Ben Johnson. Like, he didn't even take the interview. He's like, I'm good. Last year, I have it on pretty good sources. He was Washington's guy.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Peter Schrager]

They get on. They get on a private jet to Detroit to go meet with him again, and they find out while they're on a private jet that he's withdrawn his name from the interview process and he's going to stay in Detroit. Like, I don't even know if he wants to be a head coach, and I don't think he, like, loves the idea that he's looked at as this guy who flirts. He doesn't even flirt. He's like, I'm good. So I would imagine this is the year. But he's. He could be. He could be picky here. I don't think he needs to take any job.

[Bill Simmons]

This is the year. And I doubled down on it with my future picks before the year, but I was just like, I just. I'm defaulting to good coaching, you know, like Sean Payton over Jim Harbaugh. I know it doesn't make sense, but I just feel like he's getting to nine wins and maybe making the playoffs.

[Peter Schrager]

I had him. I had them both in the playoffs this year.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm with you next year already. I can just tell you, like, Belichick and Brable taking over, whoever. I'm just going to be like, I'm in on those guys.

[Peter Schrager]

Why are you so convinced Belichick's getting a job?

[Bill Simmons]

Well, that's a good question. I'm not. I'm convinced.

[Peter Schrager]

If he didn't get one this time around and Atlanta obviously went down the road with him, why after a year, will he suddenly be in demand?

[Bill Simmons]

Great question. Because especially coming off of not a great Pat year, I think Kraft was definitely poisoning the well a little bit. I think he had a reputation as a curmudgeon and as a control freak. And I think the two jobs that made the most sense were Atlanta and Washington. Atlanta hired Raheem, who's, you know, was a really, really, really good defensive coordinator who was going to get another job. Like, it wasn't like, they hired a schmuck in Washington, Dan Quinn. Like, it seems like that was the right hire. Like, I for them, great energy, defense like, it's worked out. I don't really know if there's another job like Carol. Like, Tepper wasn't going to hire him in Carolina.

[Peter Schrager]

No, no.

[Bill Simmons]

This year, Jacksonville and Vegas seem like the two spots that.

[Peter Schrager]

Okay, so let's.

[Bill Simmons]

You're bringing Belichick, you're bringing his whole infrastructure. He's going to be in charge of everything and you're just handing the thing over to him. Those seem to be the two franchises that just need someone like that. Let's go down the Vegas.

[Peter Schrager]

Let's go down the Vegas line. Brady. Brady hires Brady's first big opportunity to. Brady's hiring his. Belichick, his old head coach, and they're going to bring in Josh McDaniels and Mick Lombardi and the whole gang from. Like, they did that a couple years ago. Like, that was their coaching staff. They went the New England route.

[Bill Simmons]

Like, the only thing I would push back on is, are we sure Brady's going to be that involved?

[Peter Schrager]

Good point. I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

You could tell me either. You could tell me he's going to be super involved.

[Peter Schrager]

I would imagine you could tell me.

[Bill Simmons]

He just got a deal on a 10% NFL team and he's just kind of.

[Peter Schrager]

So, like, who does this benefit more, Brady or the Raiders? To have Brady as a Raiders minority owner, I would think the Raiders would say we would love his insights and have him weigh in on decision making. When it comes to.

[Bill Simmons]

I would say Brady because he got an unbelievable deal apparently in the team. He got some legitimate owner half price. Like the NFL owners were pissed about it. Jacksonville needs. I mean, if I think Vrabel, because he's younger than Belichick, should be a better candidate than Belichick. As much as I love Belichick, he's hitting his mid-70s.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

But I do think that's been a lot of this media stuff has been a rehab tour of. See, I do have a personality so interesting. I can play the game.

[Peter Schrager]

Surrounds himself with a Chris Long, who's a super likable guy on television, a Chad Johnson on television and he's playing along with those guys. Then he's on with the Mannings and he's great. And It's.

[Bill Simmons]

He's doing McAfee like he's. He's checking all the boxes.

[Peter Schrager]

Totally. And look, if you're talking about who do you want to sit down with and talk ball with or who's going to be the best X's and O's guy in the history of the sport, it might be Him. I know these owners. I'm trying to think. I think Shad Khan is your best bet of like, who's going to hand things over to Belichick and whether somebody.

[Bill Simmons]

Has a whole bunch of other stuff going and doesn't want to manage it day to day.

[Peter Schrager]

You deal.

[Bill Simmons]

It's like I just. You take it, you go. Which is, I think, what he thought he was going to have with Trent Balkey. Right. And that hasn't worked out.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah. And he thought he had that with Urban Meyer, and that didn't work out.

[Bill Simmons]

I think Belichick's going to go to Jacksonville and I think Vrabel will get a really good job. I can't imagine he's not going to be a head coach next year. That's crazy to me.

[Peter Schrager]

So he's been. He's been talked about, obviously, a lot, and a lot of people thought he got a raw deal in Tennessee, which is fair. He's won a lot without a real true number one quarterback. Tannehill was solid for a couple of years.

[Bill Simmons]

I think about Freo.

[Peter Schrager]

He's in Cleveland right now consulting. But it's. That's almost like, hey, just let me stay with the team. Let me help out where I can. But you can't. You can't pin any of Cleveland's season to bad season to like, oh, look, very bull. Had a bad year again, though. Brable, like former Patriot. All that like, is very bull. The jets guy. I don't know if there's a. If that's a great fit in New York. I don't know if he wants to go there. I'm. I'm just trying to do mixing, matching about what's going to be available. And I look at some of the places that are going to have openings. I think Bears might be available. I think Cowboys is going to be available. I think.

[Bill Simmons]

Jeff, would you want the Cowboys job?

[Peter Schrager]

It's tough. It's tough because he's going to be involved.

[Bill Simmons]

Three giant contracts. It's basically like you're taking over the 76ers.

[Peter Schrager]

And the owner historically has been very involved. They haven't had a real voice of, like, pushback or resistance since ourselves. I mean, I don't think Wade Phillips was that guy. It wasn't Garrett and it wasn't McCarthy. Those guys have been great football coaches in their own right and when they had to be. But, like, they're not guys who are going to scream at the owner.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, well, last year. Last year, the Chargers was the best job, 100%. You get you get Herbert, you have a team that underachieved because of the coaching situation. You have actual talent in place. It was all lined up for somebody to come in. Jacksonville, to me, is a pretty good job.

[Peter Schrager]

You still believe in truth?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. If you're walking into it going, I think Lawrence can be a guy. I think he could be on the. Somewhere in the Herbert May vicinity. He's just, they did this wrong, this wrong and this wrong. We can build him back up. And you're probably watching every pass and play that he's done over the last four years, trying to decide if this was his fault or if this was the infrastructure. But at least like, you go to the Giants, who am I getting? Tommy DeVito? Like you go to Vegas, you're going to draft.

[Peter Schrager]

No chance of any of these guys draft picks. That's what you're getting.

[Bill Simmons]

Or Chicago would be the other one where you get. You're walking in with Caleb. You have draft capital that's kind of gives a shit.

[Peter Schrager]

That's kind of what Canales stepped into in Carolina. If you get like a Caleb that just had a scarring rookie season now, how do I build him back up? You know, like Bryce Young was destroyed last year. How do I build him back up? That's a challenge in itself.

[Bill Simmons]

Work in progress.

[Peter Schrager]

Work in progress. I would quickly give you a name. And obviously I say this and a lot of people roll their eyes because he's been meant. He was a head coach before. But, like, depending on how the second half of the season goes in Washington, I think Kingsbury is going to be a name to watch because of what he did with Jaden out of the gates. And he's got head coaching experience. It's not for everybody. It's. And he has faded in the second half of every place he's ever coached, whether it was Texas Tech or Arizona or even, you know, USC last year. But I would keep an eye on Kingsbury as a sneaky candidate for a few of these places just because of his ability with these young quarterbacks. And that's what you're drafting. And I do think, you know, he.

[Bill Simmons]

Was bad in Arizona. I don't know how much of it was his fault, but it didn't go well.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. With that said, he's been amazing for Daniels. And if you feel like it's a quarterback match, maybe the thing is you have a 25% chance of hitting it with the coach. We're just watching it. There's eight or nine guys and then there's everybody else Totally. That's what happens. Like, would you want the New Orleans job? The shocking thing to me is how many jobs I wouldn't want that are available. It's like, oh, cool. I get to take over the Panthers if that became available. No, thank you. Oh, the Saints. You're underestimating.

[Peter Schrager]

You're underestimating the egos, the careers, and what it means to be one of the 32. And a lot of these guys know going in sometimes I get it.

[Bill Simmons]

But not. Not if you're Ben Johnson, though, and you. Not every year you have your pick. Like, it was like, oh, cool. I get to coach Derek carr, Sean. Aiden O'Connell for a whole year. Oh, yeah.

[Peter Schrager]

Sean Payton tells the story about. Like, he. He got interviewed by the Raiders in 03 maybe, and he was the offensive coordinator of the Cowboys, and Al Davis made the pitch, and then, you know, the Cowboys came back and said, we'll pay you as much as they're paying you to stay as offensive coordinator. And he does. And then the next year, he visited New Orleans, and he was like, there were still tarps on the homes from Katrina. And, like, we were embarrassed to invite free agents in because if they even saw this place, they would never choose to sign. He's like, we had to offer twice as much money to assistant coaches just to even consider this place. He's like, it's not like that. But when you go into these teams that are so much behind the. Like, it is a real, real hard sell to, like, a top, top coach, which is one of the reasons why you don't get some of the premier coordinators or the hot names going to these franchises. And everyone's like, all the fans are like, well, let's just hire that guy. No, no, no. A lot of times it's the coordinator has the choice or the hot name has the choice. And it's like, I'm not gonna go step into that. I want to go to the place that's the most desirable.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, it's funny the way we laid that out. Maybe Vegas is a more desirable job because you come in, you're like, hey, Vegas, no state tax. It's hopping city right now, doing great. We have.

[Peter Schrager]

The NBA's coming.

[Bill Simmons]

We got a baseball team coming. NBA's coming. Like, shit's going.

[Peter Schrager]

We got the NBA cup, and they do.

[Bill Simmons]

Home of the ufc. NBA Cup. Like, shit's happening.

[Peter Schrager]

Are you gonna go to the. Are you gonna go to the NBA cup again this year or.

[Bill Simmons]

No, I'm on the fence. The semifinal game. There's the two in a row games on a Saturday seems kind of fun. It does.

[Peter Schrager]

I will be at, I'm doing a double dip this weekend. I'll be in la. I'm going to go to Nuggets Lakers on Saturday hopefully and then I'm, I know I'd like to see him. Then I'm going to go to Eagles Rams the next night and then I was thinking about extending the trip one more day because you have Ravens Chargers. So pretty good LA sports weekend here.

[Bill Simmons]

That really is. Well, let's leave on that because we're hitting that a million dollar picks. Ravens, Chargers Chargers sneak one out last week like a it was a sneaker.

[Peter Schrager]

Slayed some ghosts.

[Bill Simmons]

Ravens could be 7 and 5 if they lose this game. The Ravens are favored by three and I, I've liked the Chargers all year but something about the Ravens on turf coming off a loss is, is scary to me. What, what's your take on this game?

[Peter Schrager]

I don't know man. Chargers are really good and last week it was obviously all written to just charger it up and they found a way to somehow put their foot down and not let that happen again. Now of course the kicker from the Bengals misses that kick and it's okay. But it was all going the way it always goes for the Chargers after being up 27 to 6 and they found a way to hold on and Herbert had to leave a drive at the end.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Peter Schrager]

And he did. That's good. And at the end it's like lad McConkey has no demons and no ghosts from, you know, previous years and J.K. dobbins doesn't know any of that stuff and they've got guys on defense who weren't a part of those teams like new coach, new feel like I could see them beating up on the Ravens this weekend. The Ravens, Ravens last week they finally get a good effort from their defense. They finally get this performance where they keep A team under 20 and on the flip side, they only run the ball with Derrick Henry 13 times. They missed two Justin Tucker Field goals. They look discombobulated after the timeout on the two point conversion. There's penalties all over the place. Like I don't feel great about this Ravens team. I didn't feel great when they won against the Bengals on a Thursday night and they gave up 35 points and 500 yards passing. Like I don't know. I, I, I know the Ravens are favored and this game's on the road for some reason I, I could see the Chargers winning in this game. 100%.

[Bill Simmons]

It's a must watcher. That one's great. Packers, Packers, Niners is going to be great. Some good ones. Rams, Eagles will be fun. We, we have a couple good ones. I think Dolphins, Pats could be really fun too.

[Peter Schrager]

I heard you and Sal joking about, you know, did you know that the Buffalo fans jumped through tables? Where do you stand on the Harbaugh brothers going up against each other in a game? Are you good on that storyline or is it not enough?

[Bill Simmons]

Is that what's happening?

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah, they actually. So one of the teams had coaches.

[Bill Simmons]

They're going against each other.

[Peter Schrager]

It's actually.

[Bill Simmons]

I didn't see that. Nobody's talked about that all week.

[Peter Schrager]

It's actually kind of interesting because one of them is last name Harbaugh and the other one's last name is Harbaugh. And their dad actually coached too for Western Kentucky for many, many years.

[Bill Simmons]

Same dad, same guy. How many times did they coach against each other when Harbaugh was a Niner?

[Peter Schrager]

Twice they did a Thanksgiving game and then they did the Super Bowl.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I don't. Oh, yeah, the Super Bowl.

[Peter Schrager]

And John won both times.

[Bill Simmons]

I still don't understand how the Niners lost that Super Bowl. I went to that game, one of the weirder sporting events I've ever played. Rory, I'm sure you were there too long. Blackout. The whole thing was, where did you slept?

[Peter Schrager]

Maybe I'm just the neurotic New Yorker here, but the lights go out and everyone thinks this is hilarious. I was freaking out. I'm like, what's going on? Like, where were you when it went down? I was in the press box, which is not easy to get down from the top of the Superdome.

[Bill Simmons]

I was in a suite with the one and only Nathan Hubbard.

[Peter Schrager]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

And. And the lights went out and the first thought is like, is something horrible happening? Then the second thought is, what if the lights don't come back on? What happens to the Super Bowl? What we did, it was super disjointed, but the whole game was disjointed. And then all of a sudden they're on the five yard line, first down, and it just. The pace was off and it was really weird to watch in person. I.

[Peter Schrager]

It was.

[Bill Simmons]

I haven't been to like a million NFL games because I love watching them on tv, but that was, I think, the weirdest one I've been to in person.

[Peter Schrager]

Frank Gore runs the ball down to the five yard line. Kaepernick throws, I think three passes to Michael Crabtree. One of them Maybe the Randy Moss, of all people who was on that team out of the end zone. And that's how it ends. It's a crazy, crazy super bowl that's forgotten in the lore because of the. The blackout, but it was. It came down to the final minutes and, like, that's another one that Niners fans add to. Like, there's a whole version of the beleaguer Jets, Browns fan. And no one's crying for Niners fans. They've got all those super bowl rings, but, like, they have had some devastating playoff losses over the last two decades.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, you're right. You don't think of them as the tortured fan base because they've been in it every year. But what was the last one? 95.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah. Well, yeah, it was Steve Young and the monkey off his back with Gary Plummer. Yeah. That was the last time they won a Super bowl, right?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Montana won four and Steve Young won one.

[Bill Simmons]

Drought on par of the New York playoff football drought.

[Peter Schrager]

Thirteen years for the jets, and that.

[Bill Simmons]

Was the last Giants playoff one, was it? Super Bowl?

[Peter Schrager]

No, a couple years ago. They beat the Vikings. They beat.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, that's right. It's the Daniel Jones game. I bet on that game.

[Peter Schrager]

You didn't talk. We didn't talk about the Giants decision all year. All year, Drew locks number two. Devito gets the call.

[Bill Simmons]

So they're just trying to save money, right? It's just per game.

[Peter Schrager]

No. DeVito brings a spark, baby. Let's go. Spark for what?

[Bill Simmons]

They should want to lose every game. If I were them, I would play Daniel Jones every game.

[Peter Schrager]

There's.

[Bill Simmons]

I want to. I want. The weird thing is the draft's goofy because the top two guys, it seems like, are cornerbacks. Right. If you say Travis Hunter is a cornerback.

[Peter Schrager]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Complain receivers sometimes, and then there's not a quarterback in the top eight. The two left tackles.

[Peter Schrager]

Just get ready for the Shador Sanders hype train, my friend. It's coming. It's coming. It'll be real. It'll be real.

[Bill Simmons]

I'll be getting off that train.

[Peter Schrager]

You don't. You're not a fan.

[Bill Simmons]

No, I like them. It's just we do this every year with the draft where we're settling with, like, these are definitely the five, six, seven best guys. And then as we get closer to quarterbacks, everybody starts talking them into these Quarterbacks. Yeah. Starts rising up. All right. Sad. Everybody in New York, great to see you.

[Peter Schrager]

I wanted to talk about Jay Leno being thrown down a hill, but we didn't get to that point. And that's just not funny, I guess.

[Bill Simmons]

Listen, I will say if I was the host of a conspiracy podcast, I would have done a lot of legwork on it because it just, a lot of stuff doesn't add up. I'll just say that I bet on some text threads today, wondering what's going on.

[Peter Schrager]

It's a crazy online story and it's, it's disheartening because I like Leno. I mean, I think he's a sweet guy and he loves to craft. But what do you do? What do we, what are we doing Hampton Inn on a Tuesday night in Pittsburgh? What are we doing here?

[Bill Simmons]

Right. Well, and also, if you, if you take it, you take like your own parents and just put them in the situation of some of these and it's like, do you know what happened to Bill's Dad? He fell 60ft down a hill and this whole side of his face is black.

[Peter Schrager]

Like, what?

[Bill Simmons]

That's the weirdest thing I've ever heard. And there's something, celebrities, they seem somehow seems less weird.

[Peter Schrager]

And it's something so old school that, like, Inside Edition is doing like, like, interview with them. It's like, where, what, what am I watching?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, there's people doing tweets, like, you know, like, someone is trying to kill Jay Leno. How much evidence do we need? And it's like, at least investigate this. I'll kick the tires on it. Peter Schrager, great to see you.

[Peter Schrager]

You're the man, dude. Thank you.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, that's it for part one of the podcast. Thanks to Peter Schrager, thanks to Ceruti for hopping on, and thanks to Kyle Creighton. Remember, you can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And remember, part two of this podcast is coming as soon as we can get it up. We're going to talk about the Philadelphia 76ers. We're going to talk about million dollar picks and a whole bunch of other stuff. So stay tuned for that. See you in part.

[Peter Schrager]

I don't have a few years with.

[Bill Simmons]

Him.

[Peter Schrager]

On the wayside.

[Bill Simmons]

Must be 21 plus in President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + in President D.C. gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplionma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny.