Part 2: Eagles/C-Words Reax, Drake Maye Fever, the RB Boom and Million Dollar Picks With Joe House and Nate Tice

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast: Part 2 Summary

Episode Title: Part 2: Eagles/C-Words Reax, Drake May Fever, the RB Boom and Million Dollar Picks With Joe House and Nate Tice
Host/Author: The Ringer's Bill Simmons
Guests: Joe House, Nate Tice

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1. Washington Football Team Analysis with Joe House (04:09 – 15:27)

Bill Simmons kicks off part two by welcoming Joe House to discuss the Washington Football Team's performance, particularly their recent Thursday night game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

• Team Performance:
  Joe House highlights Washington's struggles, noting, “This Washington team has now lost four games on the season” with all losses coming against playoff-contending teams from the previous year (04:24).

• Quarterback Concerns:
  The team’s offensive issues are primarily attributed to their quarterback’s injury. House remarks, “The point isn't to win in week 11. The point is to win enough games to make it to the playoffs” (05:12).

• Schedule and Playoff Implications:
  Washington’s upcoming schedule is viewed as favorable, with matchups against teams like Dallas and Tennessee, providing a realistic path to reach 10 wins and secure a playoff spot (06:01).

• Coaching and Strategy:
  Discussion around Washington's coaching decisions, including offensive play-calling and adjustments to Jaden Daniels' rushing game, emphasizing the need for strategic changes to improve performance (07:17).

2. Drake May and Quarterback Development with Nate Tice (15:32 – 35:03)

Nate Tice joins the conversation to delve into the Patriots' quarterback situation, focusing on rookie Drake May.

• Drake May’s Potential:
  Bill praises May's explosive play ability, stating, “He has glimpses of special stuff” and compares him to legendary quarterbacks like John Elway for his potential (27:38).

• Mental and Physical Growth:
  May’s leadership and mental toughness are highlighted, with House noting his “self-awareness” and ability to learn from mistakes, which are crucial for his development as a franchise quarterback (28:12).

• Comparative Analysis:
  Bill and House discuss potential comparisons, debating if May resembles Josh Allen or other established QBs, ultimately recognizing the uniqueness of his playing style (36:40).

• Coaching Impact:
  The role of Patriots’ coaching staff in May's development is emphasized, with insights into how coaching strategies are adapting to support his growth and maximize his strengths (41:39).

3. NFL Season Highlights and Trends (35:03 – 73:25)

The conversation shifts to broader NFL season trends, covering improving defenses, the resurgence of running backs, and strategic coaching moves.

• Defensive Improvements:
  Brian Phillips discusses teams like the Eagles, Chargers, and Broncos, praising their defensive units. Notably, the Eagles’ rookie cornerbacks are spotlighted for their impressive performances (52:05).

• Run Game Renaissance:
  Emphasis on the increased investment in running backs, citing stars like Derrick Henry and emerging talents like Najee Harris. Phillips notes, “There's a rejuvenation of that position that's happening right now” (67:24).

• Coaching Strategies:
  Analysis of coaching impacts, with mentions of Vic Fangio’s influence on the Eagles and Greg Roman’s role with the Chargers, showcasing how strategic decisions are shaping team performances (60:18).

4. Million Dollar Picks Segment (77:51 – 114:14)

The episode culminates with the "Million Dollar Picks" segment, where Bill Simmons and Joe House discuss their betting strategies and top picks for Week 11.

• Betting Strategies:

  • Broncos vs. Falcons:
    Pick: Broncos -2.5
    Rationale: Strong defensive unit and favorable matchup (108:29).

  • Colts vs. Jets:
    Pick: Colts +3.5 with Anthony Richardson over 38.5 rushing yards
    Rationale: Colts’ healthy lineup and Jets’ defensive weaknesses (82:46).

  • Chargers vs. Bengals:
    Pick: Chargers -1.5
    Rationale: Chargers’ balanced offense and superior defense compared to Bengals' one-dimensional playbook (94:19).

  • Browns vs. Saints:
    Pick: Browns -108
    Rationale: Browns’ improved health and Saints’ defensive struggles (106:21).

• Parlays and Special Bets:

  • Chiefs and Steelers:
    Pick: Chiefs +3.5 parlayed with Lions -2.5
    Rationale: Chiefs’ robust team dynamics and Steelers' historical performance as underdogs (113:25).

  • Cousin Sal Special:
    Pick: Steelers win first half, Ravens win game
    Rationale: Consistent historical outcomes favoring Steelers and Ravens (113:28).

Notable Quotes:

• "This Washington team has now lost four games on the season."
  — Joe House 04:24

• "He is showing that he belongs in the upper echelon."
  — Joe House on Drake May’s potential 15:27

• "There's a rejuvenation of that position that's happening right now."
  — Brian Phillips on running backs 67:24

• "The Chargers are a really good, complete, well-coached team."
  — Bill Simmons on Chargers vs. Bengals 94:15

• "Anthony Richardson's in this game. House, you had a theory about what Steichen's going to do with Richardson."
  — Bill Simmons 109:14

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Conclusion

In this episode, Bill Simmons engages with Joe House and Nate Tice to dissect key NFL matchups, quarterback developments, and emerging trends like improved defenses and the revitalization of the running back position. The "Million Dollar Picks" segment offers listeners strategic betting insights, backed by in-depth analysis and historical data. Whether you're a seasoned NFL enthusiast or a casual fan, this episode provides valuable perspectives and actionable picks to enhance your understanding and enjoyment of the season.

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References:

• Timestamps correspond to the provided transcript and are included to reference specific segments and quotes.

Transcript

[Brian Phillips]

Okay, this is a true story. I have a friend who once faked his own death so he could have more time to watch his favorite TV show. In my new podcast, Truthless, I'm talking to people about the lies they tell, from forging new identities to taking their love of Game of Thrones a little too far from Spotify and the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Brian Phillips. Listen to Truthless on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Bill Simmons]

This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by Ray Ban Meta Smart Glasses Built with Meta AI Ray Ban Meta Smart glasses react to what you see so you can learn more about the world around you. You can also take hands free photos, videos, send messages, make video calls, even play music and podcasts straight from your glasses with Ray Ban Meta. This episode is brought to you by the all new reimagined Nissan Kicks. From the bold new exterior to the performance and tech features like intelligent all wheel drive and a Bose Personal plus sound system. Cars where I live, I live in the Los Angeles area and cars are one of the most important things you can have because you're in them a lot. Because you got to drive around all over the place. You know what's fun? To have a nice car for an everyday commute. To have music and the ability to do hands free stuff. And just to feel safe, you can do it. Drive the all new reimagined Nissan Kicks today. Head over to Nissan USA to learn more. Bose Personal Plus Sound System is an available feature. Bose is a registered trademark in the Bose Corporation. Intelligent All Wheel Drive cannot prevent collisions or provide enhanced traction in all conditions. Always monitor traffic and weather conditions. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network Put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. We did meet the parents. We have a sports movie coming next Monday night. Maybe I'll give some hints over the weekend on the rewatchables Twitter feed. Stay tuned for that. Hey, if you missed part one of today's podcast, me and Big W and then Van Lathan joined us. We talked basketball. We talked Knicks and Bulls. We Talked about the NBA's popularity these days with why the ratings are going down, and yet the interest seems to be up. And that conversation went in a whole bunch of directions, as it so often does when Van gets involved. But we also talked about Mike Tyson and the big fight coming up this weekend in four decades of having Mike Tyson in our lives. So that was part one. Part two is a little simpler. Joe House is going to come on at the very top, we're going to be talking about the Washington Philadelphia Thursday night game, the biggest NFC east game involving Washington in a long, long time. And then House goes away. I bring in Nate Tice from Yahoo. We talk about Drake May because he's on Drake May island with me. And then we talk about the five things he's been the most excited about over the course of the season. Really fun football combo. And then bringing House back in to do million dollar picks. And by the way, it's not sober house tonight. I'm just, I'm just warning you guys now. So that is the plan for part two. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, taping this first part of the podcast. It is almost 8:30 Pacific Time. Joe House is here. His favorite team, the Washington SE words was 7 2amere five days ago and it's now 74 after two losses in five days. I listened to you on a very good show called East Coast Bias on the ringer gambling show today and you were saying it felt a little early for Washington in a game like this. So make the same case you made 12 hours ago on that show.

[Joe House]

Well, I've had a couple drinks just to be blunt about it right from the top so I'll be able to get half of it right.

[Bill Simmons]

Is it drunk? Is it drunk House? Or just slightly over served? House. Buzz House. Okay.

[Joe House]

Buzzed. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Buzz House.

[Joe House]

I'll say this, this Washington team has now lost four games on the season. All of their losses are to playoff teams from last year. None of, none of their losses came to teams that they were forecasted to beat. They have against their three toughest competitors, all one score games. So it's, this whole season is a silver lining season and Washington just isn't quite good enough yet. They don't have good enough players. They have good players and kudos to the front office and the coaching staff and everybody to put out the first competitive team that we've seen here in Washington. Now we did make the playoffs a handful of years ago with Ron Rivera with the team that finished under 500. I don't remember that did make the playoffs in 2015.

[Bill Simmons]

Did we bet against Ron Rivera when he made the playoffs with under 502? We must have, oh, I mean it's.

[Joe House]

Lock of the century. We had to hope we did. Yeah, yeah, I hope we did. But you know, for two and a half, three, three and a half quarters, Washington was in this game. Washington looked fine.

[Bill Simmons]

But you know why you didn't win? Because your quarterbacks hurt.

[Joe House]

Yeah. That's the other part of it. I said this on the show. One of my favorite bets for this evening was jaden Daniels under 43 and a half rushing yards. He can't run right now because he's hurt. He's. He's protecting his ribs. The team's protecting him. The point isn't to win in week 11. The point is to win enough games to make it to the playoffs. I think they need to win three more games. The schedule sets up nice. We have a nice.

[Bill Simmons]

Let's go through it. You're home, Dallas, home, Tennessee next to great, favored by five, five and a half against Dallas, seven against Tennessee. You got a bye week at New Orleans. Home, Philly, home, Atlanta at Dallas again. You get Dallas twice when it looks like they're punting on the season.

[Joe House]

It's wonderful.

[Bill Simmons]

Couldn't be 11 wins anyway.

[Joe House]

Yeah. And I think in the NFC you get to Ted, great chance of getting in there. And this little mini buy can't be overrated. Right. They go from this Thursday night game, which I hate. I hate a divisional game on a Thursday night. But now they, they have the rest. We're going to get Marshawn Latimer. We're going to get, you know, Jaden Daniels. Hopefully those eight days are meaningful to his recovery. The, the offensive lines a little dinged up. Cliff Kingsbury doesn't think so because he thinks that we should try these short yardage rushing plays that the Eagles. There were eight short yardage rushing plays. This is. I'll just do my Kingsbury bit for 10 seconds. 8, 8 short yardage rushing plays for Washington. They amassed a total of negative 1 rushing yards. Is it second half cliff or do we have second half cliff in our lives?

[Bill Simmons]

Are you talking second half of the season or second half of a game or both?

[Joe House]

All of the above. All the above. Sadly.

[Bill Simmons]

So, Clint, if Cliff was a baseball pitcher, he'd be the I don't want to see the lineup a third time guy.

[Joe House]

I'm tapping my right arm. I'm tapping.

[Bill Simmons]

You bring it. You bring it in.

[Joe House]

Who's the situation? Relief. Yes, exactly.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, that was the key part of the game was when it was what, second and one. It felt like an either or game. I was sweating out an Eagles tease and an Eagles parlay. Second and one stuffed. Third and one stuffed. Let's go for it. On fourth and two fumbled handoff. Daniels tackled three yards away from line of scrimmage and that flipped the game. I thought, you know, and maybe I had some PTSD from last Year with Jalen Hurts, but I think it was the Giants last year. I can't remember with that game. The Eagles murdered literally every tease on the planet. When Hertz threw that last interception into like five guys and it was like, oh, I bet on the Eagles. During the one game this year when Jalen Hurts is just looks terrible and like he has seven injuries. It felt like that today in the first half it felt like he doesn't look right. What's going on here? Are they hiding an injury? His body language gets weird. You know, he starts getting a little hang dog ish. Um, you start, he's a little slow to get up after he gets knocked down. Your defense was flying around and I, I, I felt like maybe you could steal like a 13 to 10 type game. It was sitting there for a while and then Saquon Barkley took over and.

[Joe House]

And that defense, you know, God, God bless him. It's all, you know, retreads and guys that are, you haven't established themselves with much in the way of pedigree yet. Frankie Louvu is awesome. Bobby Wagner has pedigree. Dorris Armstrong. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And there's like, you know, like five or six guys who've established but you know, you still have St. Juice down on the corner. The kid from Michigan. Now that looks like the steel of the draft. Sandra still incredible. They went at him with both AJ Brown and Smith and he was with the same route and he was there for both of them. So knock on wood, it's a, it's good, it's a good team in progress.

[Bill Simmons]

How did you feel about Dan Quinn's arms up in the air? We're up by seven on a Thursday night game with a chance to blow every parlay and teaser, double fist pump, scream reactions like, at least from, from a character standpoint he seems like he'd be a fun coach to have considering your last coach was basically who is more dead, him or Joe Biden? In retrospect, Robert Rivera.

[Joe House]

I mean, respectfully, Ron Rivera did just beat cancer last season.

[Bill Simmons]

Why did that have to be their retort? Respectfully, I was setting you up for a Biden joke and now you have to get all serious on me.

[Joe House]

We're way by it. We're way past the.

[Bill Simmons]

Is there video of Ron Rivera walking on the beach in Delaware Like Biden or.

[Joe House]

No, maybe, maybe the two of them handed hand together.

[Bill Simmons]

Notice Biden's wife didn't put her arm out. Maybe, maybe help the old man as he's trying to navigate some sand.

[Joe House]

Jesus, There isn't, there isn't a lot of physical contact between those two. Ever since it became clear that he wasn't going to run for president again. You can't catch those two together in a single camera frame.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it's tough, tough times. We'll see how it goes. Okay, so big picture, I would have said Philly was maybe my number one draft pick for the other NFC title spot against Detroit. Something's missing and I don't know what it is. Now granted their kicker Today they scored 26 points. Their kicker missed two field goals in a P8. So really they could have been in the 30s, but I don't know what it is. But they, they have not won me over as the second team yet. The problem is I don't know who the second team is. Like we could have the Green Bay conversation. Maybe we'll know more this week. Maybe this is the week San Francisco gets going. Maybe Minnesota will start looking again like they did in September. Go on and on, but I just don't know who the team is.

[Joe House]

I still think it's Philly and I think that they remain a work in progress themselves. You have to remember like this is. And they made a point of it on the, on the broadcast. Alan Kirk, you know, America's favorite Thursday night couple. They, you know, Fangio, defense takes a little while for guys to get. They have two outstanding guys in that secondary, Quinnian Marshall and DeJean. And those guys are clearly, you know, getting it. Jalen Carter had a dominant game tonight against the Washington offensive line. That's been a revelation. So I think as they put it together defensively, ultimately they won that game with their defense. Right. That's what we would say. And I mean, I haven't seen anything out of San Francisco. San Francisco keeps trotting out the 30th ranked special teams. Get the F out of here. That what they did last week.

[Bill Simmons]

Isn't it worse than 30th? It was 30th before all the shenanigans last week. Well, there was a lot of dropped.

[Joe House]

There was a lot of bad special teams. I mean, Atlanta's kicker, three missed field goals. But in any event, as you go down the list on the NFC side there, there's. It's a lot easier to poke holes than express confidence. I think on both sides of the ball, the Eagles are the second best.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, probably by default, but I don't feel good about it.

[Joe House]

Okay. It is only week 11. Remember this is.

[Bill Simmons]

How many NFC teams would you take over the second NFC team.

[Joe House]

I would take both.

[Bill Simmons]

Would you take both of them?

[Joe House]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. Probably the Ravens.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know the Ravens.

[Joe House]

Ravens are close. Ravens.

[Bill Simmons]

Would you rather be the Chargers or the Eagles?

[Joe House]

Oh, definitely the Eagles. No, no, no. Come on. We're not there yet. The Chargers just discovered that they have two receivers that they see.

[Bill Simmons]

Would you rather be the Steelers or the Eagles?

[Joe House]

Eagles. Those weapons on the outside.

[Bill Simmons]

I think I'd rather be the Steelers because the Sirianni factor, which did not rear its ugly head tonight because maybe on Thursday nights his vacation's better, but fair enough. So your team's, I'm guessing, a playoff team still. Yeah, I don't see a scenario where that doesn't happen unless. Unless Daniels is really hurt. But Even now, you're 7 and 3.

[Joe House]

7 and 4. I'm sorry. Set.

[Bill Simmons]

You're 7 and 4. You have a one game lead over Green Bay, who's number three in the NFC North. Nobody in the NFC South's catching you. And then the NFC West, Arizona, 6 and 4, San Fran 5 and 4, and the Rams, who we touted a couple weeks ago, who now are in a must win spot against my guy, Drake May in the Pats.

[Joe House]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

So you're 10 wins. Feels like it gets into the playoffs. Right?

[Joe House]

I agree. Yeah. I think it's 10 wins in the NFC and I, I liked our chances. You know, I think I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Bill Simmons]

Has this been a good season for rehabilitating your Washington commander relationships in your life?

[Joe House]

I mean, look, I'm wearing the hat.

[Bill Simmons]

What kind of text threads are you on? How many Washington text threads are you on?

[Joe House]

A half dozen, at least. And it's unbridled exuberance. Like, you know, we have a football team where everybody's, you know, in my conversations, it's around what the future might hold and everything begins with this quarterback. We must keep this kid healthy. But if we have that foundational piece, then it's been demonstrated, especially in his rookie year, in his first 11 games in his rookie year, he's showing that he belongs in the upper echelon. You get that? Then you have a window. And if you have a window, you better jump through it in this modern NFL. Right.

[Bill Simmons]

We have the next segment. I'm talking to Nate Tice about Drake May. It's the exact same situation.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

We're like, wow, we now have I. Even when this happened with Brady for the Pats, and even with bledsoe in the 90s. But I was way younger with having my history of football knowledge and just how important a quarterback was. You're like, oh, we'll get a quarterback. When you get older and you realize how rare it is. And then you get one of these guys. That's like the number one thing you'd want in any sport.

[Joe House]

Well, and in this iteration of the NFL, this version, because of the way the salary caps configured, getting the most important player on the team at the cheapest possible price and then trying to build around. It's why I admired what Houston did in the off season, this most recent off season, and try in terms of trying to add.

[Bill Simmons]

He's got aggressive.

[Joe House]

You got to go. You got to go. The time is now. If you have a quarterback like this. So I expect Washington with Adam Peters.

[Bill Simmons]

It'S like what the. What the Wizards are going to do with Bob Carrington. Same thing.

[Joe House]

Very similar.

[Bill Simmons]

Now that you have your foundational piece, he's the guy. Now you got a bit. And Jordan Poole, now you have that one, two punch.

[Joe House]

Jordan Pool.

[Bill Simmons]

42 points last night.

[Joe House]

Why? Why did you have to say do that?

[Bill Simmons]

He had 42 points last night.

[Joe House]

All he did. You know what that man did? Delivered a cover. You know, the line was 10 and Washington lost by 9.

[Bill Simmons]

Jesus. I think we're in the heyday of betting party, baby.

[Joe House]

It's a pool party.

[Bill Simmons]

We're in the heyday of betting on huge underdogs in the NBA right now. You notice that like the fucking Whatchamacallit Hawks were 16 point underdogs and just went into Boston and beat them. I don't even. There might not even been a money line in the game. This three point variance, it's like it's insane to lay that many points with any team. All right, anything else in this game? Cause we're gonna take a break and bring you back later for million dollar picks. Unless you have anything else.

[Joe House]

No, I'm pleased. This is, you know, they, they, they were competitive. Good. Happy. Let's move on. Let's get. Let's get to 10 wins.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, House, before we send you packing and bring in Nate Tice. I love the NBA cup. You also love the NBA cup, correct?

[Joe House]

Oh, not only do I love it, I gave out a beautiful group C C cup parlay on the fandom sportsbook.

[Bill Simmons]

I heard it.

[Joe House]

It's all the socials, baby.

[Bill Simmons]

I love the C Cup parlay.

[Joe House]

I love the cup. You kidding me?

[Bill Simmons]

What was the C Cup parlay?

[Joe House]

The Cavaliers to win group C in the east and the warriors to win group C in the west plus 485baby.

[Bill Simmons]

C cup. Well, you know what makes the NBA cup even better than the C Cup? Parlay? A ringer profit boost token on Fanduel which you could throw that house bet on right now. We told Fanduel we want to celebrate the NBA cup, give out some profit boosts. So what do we do? We created the 30 on 30 ringer profit boost token boost. Any 30 plus point score bet on the Friday NBA cup slate and that's any 30 plus point scorer that has minus 200 odds or higher is eligible for a 30% profit boost. Is your team playing in this on Friday?

[Joe House]

I don't know. Are they?

[Bill Simmons]

You can feel the excitement with the NBA Cup. Yeah, your team's playing Atlanta.

[Joe House]

Oh, congrats.

[Bill Simmons]

Do you have a 30 point score.

[Joe House]

You want to do? That's the only team Washington is beat this year. Let's say Bilal Koulibaly drops a 30 piece.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh my God. I can't even imagine what the odds on that.

[Joe House]

Koulibaly30 Cool.

[Bill Simmons]

Abali. I wonder if Fanduel, do they even have the odds for that?

[Joe House]

Probably not because his career high is like 27.

[Bill Simmons]

More wagers. Oh, look at this player points. They don't have Koulibaly.

[Joe House]

How dare they.

[Bill Simmons]

How about Trey Young, Jordan Pool, Kyle Kuzma and Jalen Johnson? Could, could Jordan Pool have 30 points against the Hawks plus four.

[Brian Phillips]

10?

[Joe House]

He's dying to have the chance. He's dying for that opportunity.

[Bill Simmons]

Now we'll stick with we like. We like Cleveland for this.

[Joe House]

Yeah, sure.

[Bill Simmons]

So Cleveland has Donovan Mitchell plus 1. 95. 30 points against the Chicago Bulls in the NBA Cup.

[Joe House]

Great. Let's do that.

[Bill Simmons]

So we'll, we'll recommend that one. There you go. Hope you like the ringer profit boosts again. Any 30 plus score that is minus 200 odds or higher is eligible for the 30% profit boost. We are doing it each Friday. They're in the NBA cup house. I'm going to send you packing for a little bit. Bring in Nate Tice. Bring you back on the end as Buzz Tutu. Million dollar Pick. See you in a second. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Now, I know what you're thinking. Peloton doesn't look that tough. Well, let me tell you, Peloton is way more challenging than most people think. Whether you're on the Peloton tread or diving into their all access membership, they've got a wealth of running and strength training programs that will really push you to your limits. And these instructors, they're not messing around. We're talking military trained sub three hour marathoners and former college athletes who know how to bring out your inner beast. And with tons of options to choose from, you can gear up for race day with seasoned marathoners leading the charge. Plus custom strength workouts to keep you accountable and crushing those goals. Peloton is all about the details too. Want to up your game as a runner? Well, their pace targets let you tailor your workout so you can truly challenge yourself every step of the way. Find your push, find your power with [e-mail] this episode is brought to you by UberEats. It's football season and Uber Eats is dropping undefeated deals on all your game day favorites. This Week's score, buy one, get one free crunch wrap supremes from Taco Bell only on UberEats. And if you're craving even more, we've got you covered with game day deals on pizza, burgers, tacos and more all season long. Uber Eats official on demand food delivery partner of the NFL. Order Taco Bell for game day now through 1117 24. Second item of equal or lesser value terms apply. See app for details. All right, Nate Tice is here. I'm taping this in a studio I've never been in before. This is really exciting. I feel like I'm in a futuristic year or something. Talking NFL. Uh, you can read Nate. You can listen to Nate on, on Yahoo and the Yahoo Sports network. Um, you were, we were just talking before we came on about this is the weirdest part of the NFL season. Explain your theory on this.

[Brian Phillips]

It's that little lull before Thanksgiving hits and it happens everything. It happens every November and it's kind of teams start getting chopped off, but we don't want to say it yet just in case, you know. So like, all right, we got to kind of talk about the Bengals a little bit. All right. Just in case. Well, the jets won a game so we kind of have to talk talk about them still. Now we, until we can kind of get to Thanksgiving. I think everyone's a little too scared to just completely defeat them out of our discussions. Completely wipe them out. So we have this little lull, always this little lull from like week nine when we do the little mid season awards to like week 13. And then we get to Thanksgiving and then December and then we're like, oh yeah, yeah, here we go. Playoffs are coming up. Here we go. Let's rock.

[Bill Simmons]

I like that. The chopped off Sal and I call it the cross offs where we, we Cross teams off because we're still making picks and stuff. You never really know who can fully be crossed off. So there's almost two forms. One is, hey, do we not have to worry about these teams as playoffs anymore? Playoff teams anymore? And then the other is what you're saying, which is basically like, can we just not talk about these guys anymore? Can we just wait until 2025? I feel that way about like I'm looking at the standings. Vegas.

[Brian Phillips]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm good. Never talking about Tennessee again. Jacksonville right on the cusp. There's such a train wreck that, you know, maybe part of it and then Carolina would be the other one and then the Giants. So that's five. Is there anybody else you'd have?

[Brian Phillips]

No, those are, those are really good. That's a good set right there. Cause even like the ones that we thought maybe we're gonna drop off are still, like I said, interesting. You know, like I, I like a good loser leaves town match at this stage stage of the year, like starting in November, we can start getting those out there. You know, it's almost Survivor Series time, so we can do that. So I love a good loser leaves towns match like, okay, these two teams are playing whoever loses. Yeah. You're not getting talked about for a few weeks until we start talking about draft order or a new head coach.

[Bill Simmons]

So what do we call what happened in Germany last week? What. What was. That was a two. That was in the left town.

[Brian Phillips]

That was Sunday Night Heat or Saturday Morning Jack. That was the Sea shows, you know, from WWE used to have. That's what that was right there. Well, how show.

[Bill Simmons]

I didn't just bring you on and talk football. I had selfish reasons because I'm an only child. You were. You planted your flag on Drake May island about as violently and aggressively as anybody last February, March and April, which really prompted us to start texting and going back and forth a lot more because I'm like, I just, I like how this guy's thinking, I hope he's right and I think he's right, but there's not a lot of us. And then watching Drake May finally gets the job. He's got D minus offensive line is generous, D minus receivers generous. D plus play calling generous. And I'm just so excited about what he's looked like. So you don't care about the Patriots. You're an objective guy. What have you seen? What are you excited about?

[Brian Phillips]

It is funny when I start kind of planting flags on quarterbacks, I kind of get involved via Twitter and the Beats for those teams. So I've been introduced to more Patriots reporters and bloggers than I ever even knew about going into this year. And also maybe why Belichick told them, you know, never gave them anything because holy crap, the day to day stuff that was going on during training camp with the Patriots was. It was pretty interesting. But this is me kind of raising that flag. I'm like the picture at Iwo Jima. Like the flag is just starting. It's starting to get raised up there. You know, I think you're down there. A couple of us are up there. We're all pushing it up. This is why I was excited about him. He's a walking, talking, explosive play. He and I think in the NFL right now that is what you need at quarterback. You need guys. Yes. To be smart and play the quarterback position. I mean it's like operation and nickel and diming, getting the safe throws. I always thought May could do that better than people gave him credit for. But then you see the first completion against the Bears to Austin Hooper throwing a guy open 25 yards down the field or the week before, the couple of weeks before, I should say him just scrambling around when nothing was there. Tucking and running against the Titans and against the jets, that didn't end as well, but tucking and running and getting those opportunities. And that's what he was in college with a bad supporting cast. His second, his second year starting, his last year starting. So that's why I was kind of like no matter what his situation was, I kind of thought he would be able to still show signs because of just his explosive playability and is used to D minus ness around him, you know, so. But this is, this is, you know, it's not all perfect, but it is. There's so many just encouraging signs of the little things that they're doing. That completion that he had before the half against the Bears when they, he hit, that was my favorite throw probably he's made as a pro. Which was just the inbreaker to pop or no to booty. Booty. And then it was right. They had clock ticking down, no timeouts. He runs up, they spike, they spike the ball. Beautiful operation with one second to go. That is so encouraging because that's not only just a cool throw that anyone can watch, it's also just the little things, the awareness of that situation. Again, this is why I was so excited about them with the intangible stuff that we talked about the last time I was on the show. Talking about being the little brother, being a good athlete. Being competitive. You're already hearing stories about him having, you know, speaking to the team and requesting to do that. Pretty. It's pretty exciting. I'm sure Patriots fans are exciting, but I just think any good people, appreciator of good quarterback play, should be excited about Drake May because he has. There's glimpses right now, special stuff that he's doing.

[Bill Simmons]

I've read all of those stories. There was a really. There was a whole day of media coverage about when Drake May spoke to the team last week because he didn't love the practice habits and the Wednesday practice and asked to speak in front of everybody. And they're like, okay, do your thing, Drake May. And he went up and gave a. Like a. They said it was like a fun speech. Definitely kicked the team in the butt a little bit. It was a little awkward, but everybody was like, oh, he's doing. He's becoming a leader now. This is happening. I think he had been afraid to, you know, he's the rookie. He's young.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Um, but I think that was one of the things that when you read this stuff about him in college that was pretty special about him, that he. He really did get it. He got like the whole, I'm the quarterback, this is my car, I'm the driver. I understand this piece of it. And, you know, you look at some of the other guys that come in. It was notable with Caleb last week, watching that Bears Pats game and how distant he seemed, which I think was a product of they're playing like shit. The coaching situation was obviously debacle. Didn't seem like anyone's on the same page, but, you know, who would I rather have? Obviously I'm picking Drake May because he's on the Patriots, but I didn't think it was going to be this close, Nate. Like, I didn't think. I thought Drake might not play this year. I didn't expect this.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah. Which I was pulling my hair out a little bit because I never thought the mental side for May was why he had to sit, which is why you usually sit a guy, oh, this guy's only been in an air raid offense. He's never had to handle this. He's never had to handle that. He's never had to be in a huddle, all those things. And I watched May, and the in between stuff was a lot of encouraging mental aspects. I saw him changing protections. I saw him doing a lot of aspects that maybe encouraged that he could start right away. And I think the footwork stuff got overblown because footwork was like, that's coachable. That's what drove me nuts during that whole draft process, where people acting like that's damning. It was, well, what if we cleans up the footwork that you guys are all worried about? And he's doing these things with, quote unquote, bad footwork. And a lot of stuff is just people kind of talking out of their ass. I, I think, you know, like, he, he, he bounces. You even see him now. And even the quarterback coach talked about, I'm blanking on his name right now, but he was talking about, like, hey, you look. And how he moves in the pocket. He. That's a good thing, cuz he's keeping his eyes downfield, cuz he's looking to attack the defense. And sometimes when another offensive lineman's losing, it can look like he's drifting into another pressure, but he's going away from the initial pressure, which is a good thing. That's exactly what you want. The speech thing, too, is just that mentality. He has that perfect level of golden retriever brain that I love. You know, Josh Allen's got that a little bit too, where it's like, it's confidence and everything, but they still have that little goofiness that it's like, okay, you're not just a total robot, you know, that people can relate to this. He made the. He made the reporters clap for the defense. Yeah, that was hilarious because it was just. It's just genuine, like, he's just going out.

[Bill Simmons]

No, it felt authentic. I'm with you. I agree. Right?

[Brian Phillips]

It wasn't like him going like, oh, this will be funny. He was like, hey, let's do it. And like, one person clapped and he was in phase. He was like, yeah, okay, that was fun. Like, those little things really add up, especially when you're losing everything. You can do anything when you're winning. Everything's great when you're winning. But when you're losing those little things and guys are going like, oh, this guy's not like a total diva. Or this guy's not a total just, you know, homeschool kid. Like, some of these quarterbacks can act like this guy's just a player. You hear other receivers talk about him. I mean, they all rave about them. In between complaining about not getting the ball, they all rave about him. Like, so, like, that's those again. These are just the little things when you're not in the building that you kind of look at, look for and go like, oh, okay. These are things I would bet on. And I mean, the bet's looking really good right now.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't feel like I'm talking out of school with this story. I sat next to Christian Gonzalez at the Celtics Nets game on Friday night. So he went, and apparently they were trying to get Drake May to go, the Celtics. And Drake May didn't want to go because he didn't feel like he was playing well enough yet to go to assault the game on a Friday night when they had to leave the next day. And I was like, oh, that's so adorable. Drake May. I'm so, I'm so glad you haven't lived up to your own standards yet as a qb. But I was like super excited to see that. He's checked every box for me, everything I've wanted to see. But it's interesting. Obviously they're using him terribly. I don't understand half of the plays they run for him. And one of the things I was saying to a friend of mine was I don't understand why they just don't look at like the 57 most successful Josh Allen plays that Buffalo has run for Josh Allen since 2019 and just start running all of those plays. And I mentioned that to you and you said that wasn't the guy that he reminds you of and you dropped the name that I did a double take. So say the name.

[Brian Phillips]

Oh, God. This is even more of a lofty praise. Is that the high, high end comp I have for him? And this was going to the draft process was John Elway is. Yeah, I know. It's that big arm Elway was. Again, these are late memories. We remember the Broncos winning the Super Bowls with Mike Shanahan and him becoming more of a bootleg guy and more of an auxiliary guy to the run game. You know, being a Shanahan run game. And he was moved on the move.

[Bill Simmons]

Pretty beat up in the mid late 90s too. He'd take 30 minutes. Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

But prime Elway was running around throwing, you know, launching balls, trying to try all these aggressive throws. And again, this is the 0.001% comparison for May. But that's the guy where I was trying to come up with some high end comp and I was like, that's really who I think of because the looseness of the athlete being able to throw a missile wherever he wants, that competitiveness sometimes that like, he's not a dummy. I call him a golden retriever. But Elway was a coach's kid, obviously very smart, but he would still try stuff. You Know still trying to like still and still push the ball. He honed it in as the years went along. You know, shoot. The Broncos drafted Tommy Maddox for a reason. But they. But really it was just that kind of loose athlete, that big arm and that's where like I see the ideal version of him becoming where it is a guy that throws on the move. There is more polished as it comes along. But even the stuff like the mistakes he makes right now. John Hollinger. Hollinger always when he used to write the stat write ups for espn. Yeah this always kind of stuck with me that he would talk about young players and usage and turnover rate actually being a good sign down the road to star level play. Because it's those guys they got. They have the trust to handle the ball and two that they're trying. Stuff like that. That is the kind of the counter. What's happening with Caleb Williams right now is that he's really trying to be perfect from the pocket and it's limiting his creation ability while May is playing just loose and fast and everything. And yeah, he'll make a mistake. He'll try a ball. I mean the interception against the Bears was just a lapse.

[Bill Simmons]

You know, like two of those a game is and we've already.

[Brian Phillips]

That's how it's going to go.

[Bill Simmons]

It's fine.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah. And but you take the other 48 good plays and you just deal with those overwhelming negatives because he's figuring it out. Even Mayo addressed this. He even said he was like, yeah, I want him to try and figure this stuff out. You're learning what my ceilings are. Oh, I can't do that. That's time. Okay. And what's cool about May is you can tell he learns from those mistakes. Like he is so cognizant. It's him talking about not going to the Celtics game. That self awareness I think is just really encouraging. You want that for any athlete, but especially your franchise quarterback. You take it number three. And again that's why it's encouraging.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. And the Josh Allen thing which makes the most sense just because he's recent. But there's Josh Allen's huge. Drake's big, but he's not big like Josh Allen is. Josh Allen feels like he's winning collisions. Drake. I'm still nervous when in certain collision situations. But we were talking about it last week. I've never had a quarterback. We had Steve grogan in the mid-70s so I barely remember. But he. He ran for over 500 yards like he was a running QB before his knees went. I've never had a quarterback who makes some of the decisions that he makes during a game. Like he'll go back and then he'll run up the middle and he'll run up the middle like trying to get yards and trying to get like it's not just like I'm going to run seven and slide down. He's like, I'm running up the middle like I'm McCaffrey. He'll go to the right and you see like this. I call it the Zach Wilson the scramble to the right. Nothing's there. I'll throw it out of bounds. He does the Josh Allen thing where until the very last split second he's still looking even 40 yards downfield. So it's just really exciting to watch him. And I, to me it's like I'm positive he's going to be a franchise qb. The Elway thing is interesting though because I still feel like Elway is the most talented QB I've ever seen. I don't think he was the best. I think Brady's. Brady's won the best cause he earned it. Montana, I always had the highest from that era cuz he just felt like you always in the right hands with him. But I always thought Elway was just. Elway felt like he could just take the shittiest team and win like 10.

[Brian Phillips]

Games and just that just the size of those two. They're both 6 4, 2, 25. Yeah, they're both like. And that's. Thank you for saying the Allen thing. That's why I never want to throw out the Allen comp. There's some play style comparisons but that's like comparing, you know, a two guard with a power forward.

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Brian Phillips]

You know, like it's. Yes, they could play a little similar. They do some wonky or wacky things. The sideline throws exactly a great example. But it's also just like a. Yeah, Allen is 65 and change and a legitimate 240 and a guy like Justin Herbert who also gets the Drake may comparisons. Herbert's 66240 like that and 6 4, 225 and 240 like that. That is a significant difference.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, you know what that's like. That was. It's like Cooper Flagg. Cause they're Cooper Flagg's definitely special and they're comparing him. It's like, is it kg? And it's like, all right, there's pieces of kg, but kg was 7:1. Cooper flag's like 6:9 maybe.

[Brian Phillips]

So you can't e comps for him. That feels weird for me.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, they were. Well, they're just talking about like him and Duncan, how these guys that just can affect the game in all these different ways that just play the game the right way that are in the right spots, don't care if they score. But ultimately he's does. There's a size difference. The same with Allen. There's. I don't even know who you'd compare Allen to in the history of the league.

[Brian Phillips]

No, like Cam Newton that can throw even better. Like. Yeah, it's just. But again, that's. You're using different disclaimers with that flag was. I watched the Kentucky game.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, Flag. Flag's got it. Yeah, he's got something.

[Brian Phillips]

So if just the body positioning, if.

[Bill Simmons]

We'Re doing this, this draft again, is it still the same order?

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah. And I would say I. Jane Daniels, for me. Well, well, for me, yeah. Because I made one and then kill two. But I would say Jane Daniels squeezed it closer than I gave him credit for. I had like, I had a half tier gap with Daniels. You know, still some of the stuff I've been very impressed with and I'm eating crow on Cliff Kingsbury, trust me. And I just actually wrote about it today and just the offensive improvements, the cool stuff, they're doing a lot of tempo stuff. And I think Daniels has played to what I thought maybe his ceiling would be. There's just still some stuff I'm still wanting to see in the second half of the year how much he doesn't, you know, really push the ball. It's very selected when he pushes the ball and he's. Don't get me wrong talking about both sides of my mouth, he is excelling when he does it. But it's just they haven't really faced the toughest slate of defenses that forced him to do it. They faced the Steelers who really took it to him and it's. You could see him just not be comfortable.

[Bill Simmons]

And we're taping this before the Eagles game, so that might be another defense tonight.

[Brian Phillips]

That's another one. And also my, my little short list. I got. I'm talking a little Eagles and that too. So. But the. But it. So I just. And, but the thing was I thought Daniels was a half tier below those guys and I would say now him and Caleb are more closer for me than I would give him credit for. I'm still worried about the skinniness. He has done a phenomenal job of avoiding hits. He is so, so fast. Like, he is incredibly fast. But the thing is, you know, it's a long season. You know, you just take a couple wrong hits, a couple big blows. Those start to stack up. You know, body blows start to stack up. So I'm still though. I think I still would have them 1, 2, 3, like that. But Daniels would be a true number three or more of a 2B2 a kind of thing.

[Bill Simmons]

Do you care about? Obviously you're going to care about a little, but the ages of the different guys. Like Daniels is two and a half years older than May. Is that how much of that is an advantage as you're factoring that in? Cause it's gotta be somewhat of an advantage. But I never know how to calculate.

[Brian Phillips]

Absolutely. And that's another thing why Daniel's a little bit lower. Like his two red alert. And I would say red alerts, but I guess I was about to say red flags, but two kind of red flags there were age, skinniness, throwing over the middle. And you know, the hits that he took, he seems to be able to mitigate throwing over the middle. You can do that if you win other ways. He wins with acceleration and speed. But the thing is, again, what else are we tapping into? This is exactly how he played in college.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

And it was good in college. It won a freaking Heisman. But again, this does matter because he was an older prospect. Bo Nicks is a super old prospect. Bo Nicks was as old as the oldest quarterback since Brandon Weeden drafted in the first round. You know, that absolutely matters. Drake May was in true air raid offenses that had no detail and no structure. That's why I was bullish on him.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

Was that okay? We haven't even tapped into what he's actually good. What, what he could actually become Caleb Williams and kind of a Lincoln Riley offense. That takes adjustment to the NFL. I just thought that he had some, you know, and I still do. I think he's actually pretty advanced mentally, but that I thought he would actually transition a little better. But even for me, I was like, oh, maybe I was a little ahead of myself there. But yeah, they're going to have more of a learning curve, especially than a guy that's 24 who has maybe seen 20 more games. Those reps add up. So. Yeah, no, absolutely. Age, especially at quarterback is a big thing because it's just reps that these guys have. Like Anthony Richardson's younger than all these guys. So it's, you know, that that's just another aspect of evaluating these guys.

[Bill Simmons]

We talked about this the last time. It's so crazy that we are no better at this in 2024 than we were like 50 years ago that we could have more and more data evidence of all these types of guys and we still have no idea who's going to like, I don't think Caleb's going to be a bust, but if you told me he's going to be a bust, I wouldn't be like, there's no way, you know, whereas, like, there's NBA guys that I would. I was like, that guy's not going to be a bust. There's no chance this guy unless he gets hurt. But with quarterbacks, we've just seen it too many times where the combination of maybe you weren't quite ready yet, your team's a disaster, you lost confidence, you took some hits, your eye level moved down and it's just this chain of events that all of a sudden you're in a different spot. Even like watching Sam Darnold now in Minnesota versus the Sam Darnold. I watched that other Sam Darnold has been great lately.

[Brian Phillips]

But yeah, turn back into that.

[Bill Simmons]

But you just think like, how much damage can you put on a rookie QB in a wrong situation where you've now unraveled this to the point you can't put it back in the bottle.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah. The scar tissue of it all. And I think maybe this should be a great learning example for everybody about, you know, shoot. We're still discussing Trevor Lawrence and whether he's it or not. But it's like how much situation matters for even the best quarterbacks. And I mean, there's 11 guys on offense. There's 22 starters.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, but we know it matters. The question is, is it 90% of this and not 25% like situation.

[Brian Phillips]

Almost everything.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. You know what I mean?

[Brian Phillips]

I'd say it's at least half right. No, it is. I mean, look at Jared Goff from rookie year to Jared Goff with Sean McVay the next year. Like that it went from this is the worst rookie quarterback I've ever seen to wow. Oh, okay. We actually got something here to almost an MVP candidate. And also another thing too, I want to. Because Caleb got. Is getting. You get a lot of backlash if you could describe as generational. And which is why that that G word should be outlawed. It's a bet that we're making on these prospects. Some bets like, you know, Wemby the alien Victor. Like, yeah, 90% star here, you know, 8% starter and probably a 1% bench bust. Why a guy like CJ Stroud, he was my quarterback one in that class. I thought his I look at as star starter, bench bust, you know, that's it's a basketball one I take for it. But with him, I thought his star was like 10% but I thought his starter was gigantic.

[Bill Simmons]

Like I was almost like 65%.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah. I was like this guy, that guy to me felt so safe even though he was younger and all the questions about, you know, creativity and all those things. But I was like man, this guy. Like I just don't see him failing. Like I just thought his and a guy like Richardson in the same class. It was like I see a 20% star, maybe 25% but I also see a 30% bust. And same thing. Caleb for me had a huge starter, a good chunk start a star and then just. I just thought he had a small bus potential. Like it was just again but he still had it. All these guys have it. Even a guy like May who I is one of my highest graded quarterbacks I've ever had. They're going to have that. But it's all for me chasing that percentage of star because that's what you need to win.

[Bill Simmons]

What'd you have for the, for the pie with Bo Nicks? What was starter in the pie?

[Brian Phillips]

Starter.

[Bill Simmons]

You got to name this pie by the way. Is it like the.

[Brian Phillips]

I don't know, from a basketball player.

[Bill Simmons]

Pig skin pie or something. I don't know.

[Brian Phillips]

I stole from Candace Hoopas and a guy that now works for the Nuggets, actually he's like an analytics guy there and he, and I just always liked the term terminology for it and that's kind of what I applied.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

But his, the one that stuck with me was Zach Levine was the guy did an analytics thing on him and he goes, hey, I gotta bring up the comparisons and like number eight on the comparison chart was Michael Jordan. Just talking about. He was like it was all these busts and then. But then the like three of the comparisons of his like stat stuff was like, well you got to look at the athleticism and all that. And then that was the argument about Zach Levine. It was like he might wash out of the league in two years but he has that 20% chance or 10% chance of being a star and all star, yada yada. So that's the player that, that stuck out for me. But like a guy like Nick's. I he was my quarterback five and I viewed him more as a second rounder. I thought, I still thought he got overdrafted. I the argument with him. Or maybe my argument against him was he had a ton of starts but he still was so skittish. I thought his footwork was really bad. It's still kind of iffy. He takes. He just has wonky plays. He's a little too safe with the football down the field. His accuracy is not great, but I still saw a starter in there. Even my write up with him was like I view him as I think I had like, so if I did bench, starter, bench to me is like a Jacoby Verset, you know, or Gardner Minshew, maybe a spot starter kind of type. I had him kind of in that tier like where it was like, okay, there's a big chunk starter and bench like 80% and then like a 10% maybe.

[Bill Simmons]

So he's been better than that.

[Brian Phillips]

Then he's. I don't know, he's kind of been how he is. Okay, I it's Sean Payton's doing a.

[Bill Simmons]

Lot that is pretty good last year.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah, you're right, he was. And champagne's been in his bag. Like he really has. The run game's good. The Broncos defense is sick. I think he is. He has improved from what he looked like week one, which was like, oh my God, you can't play this guy to they chopped out play calls for him too. So they've stopped using motion so much. So again, that's good coaching. Hey, let's make sure you're on straight and narrow. But from week two, I thought he was not going to make it after a rookie year. I thought we had a, you know, just a Josh Rosen situation going on. Now I'm like, okay, you could be a tangible starter. So like he's reaching that kind of maybe middle tier that I thought he could reach.

[Bill Simmons]

Josh Rosen, we're going to take a break and then we're going to do five Favorites this episode is brought to you by the Home Depot. Whether you want to knock it out of the park gift wise or treat yourself to a little extra, the Home Depot's got you covered with the gift that keeps on giving. Pick up a select battery kit and get a select tool from top brands like Ryobi or Milwaukee. For free. That's right, for free. Whether you're building out your personal workshop or buying for someone else, you can choose from reciprocating saws, multi tools, circular saws and more. Get Black Friday tool savings delivered from the Home Depot. Limit 1 per transaction exclusions apply. Full eligible tool list in store and online. All right, so I asked you to make A list of five things relating to the NFL season I did not want to know was on the list. And you can count them down from one through five. Or you could build suspense and go five through one. So what is the list?

[Brian Phillips]

I'm going to build suspense. And then I feel like, yeah, went with. Because I'm so boring sometimes. I just went with things I'm enjoying in this NFL season.

[Bill Simmons]

So you're a positive guy.

[Brian Phillips]

I try to be. I try to be. I keep my negativity to myself most of the time. But yes, I want. Because there's a lot, too much about how, like, sports are worse than they used to be and all that. And it's like, no, it's the opposite. We should enjoy what these freaks are doing every week.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

And so I want things that I enjoyed. Enjoy watching this season. And I'm starting with number five. And this is actually kind of a negative one. This is telling the Cowboys I told you so. That's something I've been enjoying this season going. You guys thought you can draft two offensive linemen and start them and not have a running back and not have a second pass catcher. And you thought you can not have a defensive tackle that can stop the run. You thought Eric Kendricks could still play linebacker. And you thought you were contending and all in. And we told you so. And so that is something I've been enjoying because it's just. It's as glaring as the light through Jerry world right now. All the warts that they have have just been popping. I know pimples pop, but, you know, same thing. They just are just as shiny, as glossy as you can imagine. Even little things. Not really a little thing. Dak Prescott gets hurt. Why aren't you playing Trey Lance? You traded a fourth for him. Just give him. Give him some run. You guys aren't winning the super bowl this year. Figure out what you got. Like, you know, like, this is why you trade for him. The Mingo trade. Jonathan Mingo, you know, like day late and dollar short. But also on top of that, Mingo, even if you look at his height, weight, speed stuff, he's like a gadget slot guy. You know who's best in the slot? CD Lamb.

[Bill Simmons]

You're right.

[Brian Phillips]

Like, why are you making that trade? Like, you're making it worse. That's not actually a trade. That's actually going to have a tangible effect on your team.

[Bill Simmons]

So, yeah, I guess we liked him in the draft seven years ago. We got to get him.

[Brian Phillips]

You know, that NFL tape doesn't Matter. Hey, look at what he did. I Ole Miss that last year. I know. And guys like Maisie Smith, when he gets drafted they're like no, he's going to stop the run for us. It's like he didn't do that in college. What makes you think he's going to get better at it in the NFL? They let a guy like Jonathan Hankins go. He's just a role playing nose tackle. But he was like their most significant player on the defense. And then they're just like yeah, we don't need him. Actually it was like, no you do. You do need him on your defense. So I guess this is kind of a negative thing, but it is something I've been enjoying.

[Bill Simmons]

The other thing you did mention was and this never happens but the over under for them during this, during the summer actually moved down and went from 10 half wins to 9 half wins and. Cause everybody was like this team sucks. Like what are we doing? And you know, I can't even find nine wins in their schedule. And then they're, you know, then that cowboy infrastructure moves in and said no, no. Actually once they get CD signed and Dax signed and they stink. So that's a good one. I think that's a good start. It is fun to say I told you so to the Dallas Cowboys. What's number four?

[Brian Phillips]

It is. Number four is surprising Defenses, improved defenses. This is a way. So this was my Eagles one one of them. But teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, the Broncos, the Lions, even teams like the Chiefs are who had a really good defense last year are even better this year. The Bills who were expected to have a little drop off on defense. Yeah. And like they are just cooking and doing a great job there. So I'll start with the Eagles and this is more Vic Fangio going like, oh yeah. This is why everyone used to want to hire Vic Fangio and they have a lot, a lot of good young players and new faces really stepping up for them and it's been really fun. Quinon Mitchell, their first round pick corner from Toledo has been great like as a rookie. Rookie corner is really hard.

[Bill Simmons]

Seems like we've had good rookie corners this year. Just in general.

[Brian Phillips]

We have and just really the last like two, three years. Rookies. It used to be like year two. You expect a corner to be like even baseline. It's like a rookie in the NBA.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

Like even if they look average, you're like hell yeah. Like that's good. But with Quinhon it's like he's no, that's a good starter as a rookie and he takes it two guys, which is really fun. Like he can actually go against number ones. But then Cooper Dean, who plays in the slot for them, has been tremendous. Like both of these two guys are going to be on the short list for defensive rookie of the year at the end of the year. And that was their first two picks. And DeJean from the slot, it's a very important position in this defense. How much they have to do in the run game, how much they have to blitz because of the soft kind of coverages they run. And he has been awesome. Some huge plays on fourth down tackles. Jamar Chase in space. When they played the Bengals last week, he tackled CD Lamb in space. No one really does that to those two guys. And there he is as a rookie acting like it's nothing. So those two rookies, I mean, even other guys, Milton Williams is a guy that was a role player for them, is now a starting defensive lineman. He's in a contract year and he's going to get paid. So like even a guy like that, Jalen Carter, defensive tackle, looks like a future all pro. He's fantastic. And then Zach Bond, who's a linebacker, retread that he's a former Wisconsin guy and mostly he played as like an undersized pass rusher. And Vic Fangio is like, we're going to try you off ball. And he looks like a Pro Bowler and it's like an inspired scissor.

[Bill Simmons]

Dick Fangio is back.

[Brian Phillips]

He's fully back, Fully back. And maybe Howie. Howie hit a little magic this year. Howie. Howie. I was getting a little like, okay, you know, like, right. This is how we always nail it. And then this year it looks like he's just rejuvenated all of that. So.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, well, you probably just jinx them because we're taping this before they play tonight. They're definitely giving up 45 tonight.

[Brian Phillips]

I mean, but even like stat wise, there's seven in DVOA and then there's. So I look at a thing, success rate and explosive play rate and I combine them. People want me to call it sex rate, but then someone today said, let's call it suplex rate. And I was like, oh, yeah, there we go. But they're. They're second in that right now. And then like even the other defenses I mentioned, the Broncos defense is a lot of fun.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, like out of the defenses you mentioned, I wasn't surprised by the Chargers because they, their coaching situation last year combined, that they had real talent, right? Yeah, the Bills. The Bills have McDermott. They have the history, at least. I didn't really understand how they were going to get all the players pulled off, but they did. The Broncos, I don't get at all, like, the advanced stats for the Broncos are nuts. They're top five all over the place in all these key categories. And they passed the eye test, too. Like, I thought they did a great job against the Chiefs last week. It feels real to me. I don't get it.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah, they just have a lot of good, you know, like Patrick Surtan is. If he wasn't heard, he'd be up there with defensive player of the year. Like, we'd be talking about him. He's the best corner in the game. He's incredible. But then, like their other corner, Riley Moss is good, and not even just in the sense that he's, you know, the first white corner since Jason Seahorn. Like, he's a legitimately good player. So it went from a bit to like, oh, no, no, he's just good. We don't have to make jokes anymore. But they like. So they have those guys and they just play press, man, take it to him. Vance Joseph is really aggressive. He's a lot like, he. He has some Wade Phillips to him. So it's a lot of like, okay, we're in man coverage. That guy's blocking blitz. Then they call green dogs and they are just so. They just. They don't let you breathe, but you have to really perform to beat them. Yeah, they're. They're outstanding. I mean, they gave up 70 points in a game last year and now every metric, their top five. And it's legit. It's very legit. Zach Allen has had a good year. Defensive lineman there, the fourth Watt brother. No, it's.

[Joe House]

They're.

[Brian Phillips]

They're a very good unit. The char. Chargers too, has been very impressive. Chargers.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Not surprising at all that they would be good, but I think they're even a little better than I thought. I was pretty bullish on them. We'll see what the Bills. The Chiefs game is going to tell us a lot with the Bills because, you know, there's been a couple of games this year where it's like, oh, do they have a good defense? But then, you know, that might be like the good bad team on defenses. And I want to see, like, can they shut down the Chiefs? Because I feel like the Chiefs, you know, well, we're getting into it with million dollar picks later. But I just.

[Brian Phillips]

It's.

[Bill Simmons]

Chiefs has another dog. I'M just always buying every time. I'm just sorry.

[Brian Phillips]

Plus money. Mahomes. Hell yeah. That's what you do. No. And the Chiefs have. I'm trying to find a better term than this, but natural answers to the Bills play all this cover too.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

And then Mahomes now is like, okay, you know, he's just going to nickel and dime. It might be a juju Smith Schuster game as far as underneath throws. If he's healthy, it might be a Travis Kelsey decent game as well. But the Chiefs are. Their offense is just so brutally efficient this year. It's just, you know, it's just they're going to take their five yard gains and you're going to like it. And that, I mean that's no defense has stopped it so far. So the Bill is playing cover two. They're not very aggressive. It's kind of like, well, you need to be aggressive. You need to like take the fight to the Chiefs. Otherwise they're just going to. They're fine taking these five, six yard gains and punching you in the face over and over.

[Bill Simmons]

Little Hopkins, seven yarder. All right, what do you got for number three?

[Brian Phillips]

Number three. And this is kind of tying. Just even talking about the Bills, but kind of a cop out here because I want to talk about a few things. AFC juggernaut quarterbacks, this is Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert.

[Bill Simmons]

The.

[Brian Phillips]

The big five. And the big.

[Bill Simmons]

The big thing with that is Herbert's back.

[Brian Phillips]

So back I was worried back because I was a little scared, especially since I have some dynasty shares in him that maybe got a little worried about it. But how about the vibes with Harbaugh and Herbert? Like they. The buddy comedy with this is just amazing and it's genuine. And you could see Harbaugh really kind of. Did you see any of the videos from this past week?

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, I think that should be like its own ch. I think NFL Network should just have like a three hour show of all the locker room speeches. And I love all that stuff. I think it's so. It's such a fascinating kind of window into what the locker room's actually like. Who's the leader who gives the speech at the end before they go, all right, everybody all in. Like, I just love that stuff and.

[Brian Phillips]

How the game balls work. Like.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

Oh, are they giving it to the owner? Bomb Womp. All right. But you know, it's. But no, that's a very real thing. Like who speaks after the coach? Who like even that Harbaugh Video. They, they or the Chargers video, they're like, hey, Herbert. He's like, justin, just talk to us. And then her kind of gave the little like two second speech, which is perfect. But again, it's like a little, you know, microcosm of like what each locker room is. No, that's such a great point.

[Bill Simmons]

But one of the things I did with over unders this year, which I'm doing really well on this year, is I just, I realized I wasn't putting enough thought into good coaches versus bad coaches. And even something like the Chargers situation where it's like, well, I don't know, they're over unders eight and a half, but Harbaugh. And maybe it's a little too high. And I'm like, they're going from Staley to Harbaugh. That's gotta be worth five wins. It just has to. There's no way. It's not. We've seen it happen over and over again. Same thing with Dan Quinn not being Ron Rivera. I don't know how many wins that's worth, but it's gotta be worth a couple.

[Brian Phillips]

Like just, just having an energy sometimes works. Like just. Or just being competent. Like with Harbaugh, it's not like they're doing anything crazy. They're just competent. They don't, they don't get penalized, they don't turn the ball over. All their scheme stuff is sound. The defensive coordinator is a star. Jesse Minter, he's not going to Michigan. He's gone very soon. Yeah, they get him for another year. It's a miracle. But. But again, it's sometimes just having a high baseline and when you have a dude at quarterback, that's kind of enough. Like even talking about the Broncos with Bo Nicks. Bonix isn't making mistakes and the rest of the team is competent. So it's like, yeah, they. Now they might be a playoff team because they're just not idiots. Like that's, they're above the idiot line, the Mendoza line of coaching.

[Bill Simmons]

Do you buy into the sideline stuff? Like, do you watch the sidelines when you watch games? Because that's another thing I find myself doing more and more every year. Like, and the Chargers, The Chargers have a really good sideline. Like the reactions.

[Brian Phillips]

Oh, yeah, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

You know what I mean? Like, somebody fights and they get. It's a third to nine and the guy fights and gets the extra half yard and you'll see like 15 chargers, like jumping out in the field, getting fired up. And I'm like, oh, that's a good sign.

[Brian Phillips]

That's real. That. Well, that's what turned me on to. Oh, I was always kind of an optimist with him. But Dan Campbell's lines was his first year with them. Was even. They're getting their faces battered in every week. That sideline was into it.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

Shanahan's first year and with the 49ers in 2017, bad team and defense is trying to tackle everyone. Everyone's going nuts about a touchdown. You also, there's buy in like. Or just being locked in. Like, you can see sometimes when someone scores and how other players react to that because they're aware that that call was happening. Like, they're aware that that design was meant to do that. So again, it's just reading in between the lines of like, are they locked in? Are they not? I mean you watch, you just watch the Bears, you can just tell like.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, it was, it was like really dramatically noticeable. And on the flip side, Arizona, where you watch Arizona, you're like, whoa, does this team have good chemistry? It's first time in 10 years.

[Brian Phillips]

I was, I was. I could segue to my number two, the Cardinals.

[Bill Simmons]

Let's hear it.

[Brian Phillips]

Just. They're, they're my number two thing for this list. The thing that I'm enjoying most is the. Just the Cardinals in general. Every aspect of the Cardinals I enjoy watching because they are exactly what we're talking about here. Everybody's locked in every. I mean, Marvin Harrison junior's fist pumping after a run for a touchdown where he has to make a block. Yeah. So we got. That's the number, number four pick overall who's probably been a star since he was 15. They're doing the dirty work and celebrating someone else scoring.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

And then I look over, no offense to the guy because I really liked him. Roman Dunes for the Bears. Something happens. He's like, all right. And. Which is not how Roman Dunes they was in college.

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Brian Phillips]

It just kind of speaks to what the buy in is for each of these teams and. Or each of these players and the units. But yeah, thank you for segmenting me to the Cardinals because on the last show I was on, it's pretty optimistic about them and this, this hopefully was what I was talking about. But offense, like, they're looking like a top five offense.

[Bill Simmons]

Were you expecting them to be this physical? That's the thing that I was surprised by.

[Brian Phillips]

That's what they bought into last year. The offensive line played way above, punched way above their weight. Having James Connor kind of sets the tone Too, but just they're buying with the tight ends. You know, they had Elijah Higgins last year and Trey McBride, and then they drafted Tip Ryman in the third round. And I was like, oh, okay, I see what you guys are leaning into. Like, we're not getting, like finesse tight ends. We're actually getting like brawlers that can actually do stuff. And they drafting Paris Johnson Jr. Their left tackle from last year. They're all tone setter types. So even their other receiver, Michael Wilson, is. He's big and will do dirty work. And that's why I was pretty optimistic about him was they're doing a lot of everything was sound, like conceptually and sound, but. And very traditional in some senses, but just enough modernizations. You know, it's like watching Scream for the first time. It's like, oh, yeah, this. This is a slasher movie. Oh, okay. But you're doing the meta thing. Okay, that's cool. Like, they just do a little bit of motion, a little bit of tweaks and inverting roles. They kind of are their own. They do a little bit of everything in the run game, but it's really sound. They're not running against bad boxes. Kyler is playing fantastic right now, so.

[Bill Simmons]

Our friend Mina kind of threw him into the MVP conversation like she was like tipping a waiter. I was surprised. I wasn't ready to go there with Kyler because I've seen them win games where he didn't have to do that much. But where do you sit on that? Do you see that?

[Brian Phillips]

I. Man, I mean, he's. He's got better argument than most, I'll put it that way.

[Joe House]

Okay.

[Brian Phillips]

I. I have those afc, the five AFC quarterbacks that I just mentioned basically as my top five. So I think Kyler would probably be the one, you know, next, next one in, you know, first four out. I mean, Kyler, QBR is just one stat, but Kyler's second in the NFL right now in qbr. Lamar Jackson's one, cowers two, and Joe Burrows three. You know, like he. And this is the most. He's like playing real quarterback. They give him. You know, this is. This is kind of continuing my cliff guard, Kingsbury offense stuff was. That has a high floor, but the ceiling, I think is lower because of what they can get to and what they ask of their players. With Kyler and Drew Petzing their offensive coordinator, they said, no, you're playing quarterback like we're putting you under center. You are killing plays. You are pointing out who. Who has who in protection and there's some rough stretches early in this year and even last year, even some of the quote unquote good games now, I would say the last like three, four weeks, it's like you can see it, like you can see the confidence really bubbling with him. He's been under center 30, 30% of the time this year. The first four and a half years of his career he was under center for 125 drop backs total. His first four and a half years. He's been under center for 55 drop backs this year. So almost. He's already almost getting a half. Yeah. So 125 and four and a half years under Cliff Kingsbury and half a year. Drew Petzing, 55 just this year. That's real court. That ties into the run game. That is tying into their play action games really good. And like when I mentioned their little tweaks they do, they're kind of modern, I would say modern. Just understanding what to do. Like a bootleg, like just a normal bootleg that everyone runs. Usually you run it with zone where everybody steps the same way. You remember the old Texans Gary Kubiak videos. They would show what they do and it's not new, but they're one of the few teams that leans into it. They pull a guard when they run a bootleg and most teams try to avoid doing that because they can get a little dicey up front and everything. But they're well coached. They do only against the right fronts and it ties in with to what their run game is because they pull so many guys and once they pull that, it attracts the linebackers. You should watch against the jets. It was comical. The jets linebackers are sprinting with it because the guards pulling. So again they're confident that they can do this little tweak. But again it sets up everything because they're going under center because they're running the ball well, they can get to that stuff and it turns into 15 yard gashes to Marvin Harrison or. Or to Trey McBride who. Trey McBride's also playing like a top three tight end. So that also helps too. But it's just a. And then shoot. The defense is fun. They're crazy.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean they, they were underdogs at home against the jets last week.

[Brian Phillips]

Insane.

[Bill Simmons]

And I thought that was one of the weirdest lines of the year. And like when House and I were doing Million Dollar Picks, House was like afraid of it because it was like, what's going, like what's going on with this line? These are. These two teams are not the same level. No, but.

[Brian Phillips]

And I know I looked at the injury report after that because I remember being like, am I. Did I forget someone's hurt?

[Bill Simmons]

Like right.

[Brian Phillips]

Like, you know, like Kyler out or something. But no, that was just, you know, no one watches the Cardinals and then we get updates about jets warmups.

[Bill Simmons]

We watch them because we're on the west coast and there's three games in the. In the 1125 slot. What's your number one?

[Brian Phillips]

Well, and this is tying into a little bit what the Cardinals are doing and the. And other teams I've kind of mentioned. But it's the run game and the running back renaissance.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

Going through this year. This is what is juiced me up about the NFL this year. The Cardinals are a part of this in their run game. But this is not only just the investment teams have made in running backs, which we have seen with Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, even other guys that were signed over the years. James Conner was a free agent addition for the, for the Cardinals. You go one after another. Josh Jacobs with the packers, but also the first rounders teams have made on the running backs have been paying dividends. Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs with the Lions. All these teams with.

[Bill Simmons]

You gotta throw Najee in there. I would throw him in. I think Najee's been pretty good.

[Brian Phillips]

Najee went from he should. I actually, it was funny. I actually was like he should not be getting the ball anymore. And it feels like as when I said that on my podcast after that he is just running harder than he ever has in his career. Right. Yeah, just me. You know, football 301. Check it out. But, but the Steelers though, like they're part of this too. I've been always a Arthur Smith apologist and now with their. Their offensive line, Zack Frazier, their center, is legitimately one of the best rookies in the NFL. Like at any position. And then they have another rookie right guard, Mason McCormick, who's playing well. Isaac Shimolo, their left guard, has come back from injury. Like now you can feel that kind of that beef coming back with their run game which has been a lot of fun along with Russell Wilson. Moon balls. But the Bills run game is really good. They. They. I've been calling it spread bully because they'll spread people out or. And then they'll just run it down your throat though. And they. James Cook has done a lot better as being kind of more of a sound running back. Ray Davis is really punching people in the face and it's really Just taking advantage of. Defenses are terrified of Josh Allen. So there. Bills are just like, all right, we'll take six yards.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, you're also seeing bad teams like Carolina last week were like, we suck. Let's just run Hubbard over and over and over again.

[Brian Phillips]

Maybe this will work.

[Bill Simmons]

And it actually worked.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah, they're on my. They're on the short list here. But Ravens, I already mentioned them. The Eagles really realizing, oh, yeah, Saquon Barkley is good. Let's just get under center hand, hand him the ball. No, the Panthers is a great example. They invested in their guards, and that was to help out Bryce Young and keep the pocket, the interior of the pocket clean. But then now it's paying dividends with the, you know, the Truba Hubbard. And then they can just pound the rock 20 times. I mean, this really. The defenses are giving you this. So you.

[Bill Simmons]

So what does this mean for the draft? Is this running backs going to be the same kind of assets they were, or are we going to flip this?

[Brian Phillips]

I think it's more. It's still going to be like, maybe. Well, this class is, of course, kind of a. You have Ashton Gentee from Boise State, who I have number eight on my big board. I just did a podcast with Dan Brugler, who from the Athletic. He has a number six overall in his big board. He's incredible. I don't know if you've watched him yet, but he is one of the most fun watches in any sports. So, yeah, Ashton Gentee, running back from Boise State, but then there's a lot of day two backs.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

And you. You. It's just a difference now where these guys have to play all three downs. The only one, that only star running back that doesn't do pass protection is Derek Henry. But that's Derek Henry. He can get away with it because he's six five, you know, 250, and we can give him the ball 40 times. So we're kind of getting to this new thing where it's like, yeah, you need. You can't just go, oh, running backs don't matter in the sense that.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

Or I'm sorry, you can say running backs don't matter. Don't take them in the first round. But you can't just ignore the position. Like, you have to still it like Dallas did. You still have to invest. Look at the Vikings, who, like Sam Darnold's had a good year, you know, turning into a pumpkin a little bit right now. Defense has got a lot of headlines of Brian Flores. They also took Aaron Jones. They signed Aaron Jones.

[Bill Simmons]

Yep.

[Brian Phillips]

Totally changed their run game because he's explosive and now they don't have to rely on another 20 yard Justin Jefferson play. Okay. Aaron Jones can maybe get us a 15 yard gain that we didn't have before. So you have to invest in these positions that even. It used to be kind of a throwaway, but now I think day two it's going to turn into like, oh no, we got to take another guy. Even if we have one, we need two if we're going to really invest in this.

[Bill Simmons]

It's why I haven't given up on the Dolphins yet. Just because nine and eight is going to be in the seventh seed. But I and they didn't even run the ball that well against the Rams because the Rams front has been pretty good. I think the Pats are going to have trouble with it this week, but I think they're going to be able to run the ball as it gets colder, which is unusual for our Miami team. But yeah, they have a bunch of these.

[Brian Phillips]

But no, that's a great Wait, I.

[Bill Simmons]

Have a question based off your thing. Yeah. Do you have a favorite random non star arrow pointing up running back as we head toward fantasy playoffs, are you buying the guy in Denver big waiver this week?

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah, yeah, I am. I was pretty high on him in this draft. He was one of my more favorite backs. Non standard. Oh man. Now. Well, Tyrone Tracy, everyone's got him now.

[Bill Simmons]

No, he's already happened.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah. He's already swooped up by everybody. God, no.

[Bill Simmons]

Are you a Braylon idea? Braylon Allen stock buried in like your shoebox up in your attic.

[Brian Phillips]

I do, I do. As if he's a Wisconsin guy.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

I've been hearing about how young he is for about five years now.

[Bill Simmons]

I know.

[Brian Phillips]

Yeah. No, he. Oh Roshan Johnson maybe for the Bears. Oh. As maybe just a flyer because I don't know like they invested in DeAndre Swift but it's kind of like DeAndre Swift's making a lot of mistakes so like in just other things and Roshan Johnson's a little safer so maybe he kind of takes a few more touches there. So maybe that's one, you know, kind of looking on, you know, the kind of tier running backs. Yeah. If you're throwing some Darth rolls. Ray Davis is the other one for the Bills. But he's already probably been. I like him.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. To me, running backs, it's like seeing like a good looking actor or actress or like just hearing a good voice and you just know immediately I feel like with running backs, you know, right away it's like, oh, that guy's good. That's it.

[Brian Phillips]

Easiest position to scout. Yeah, it's like, it's. Yeah, it's. It's the one.

[Bill Simmons]

Ray Davis, you're like, oh, that guy's good. Oh, yeah, he'll help the Bills. He's just kind of.

[Brian Phillips]

Oh, he keeps getting positive yards. This is good. Yeah, no, and. And in this class, too. I'm in next year's draft class. There's just a ton of day two guys like. And it's so there's kind of a rejuvenation of that, that position that's happening right now.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, Nate Tice, before we go, I'll give you 75 seconds to not panic about the Timberwolves.

[Brian Phillips]

Oh, no. Oh, I'm panicked. They need a players only meeting. They miss Kyle Anderson, you know that. They miss him so bad. My guy's slow mo. They. They really miss him right now because he was such a glue guy for them as far as just the second unit defense and, and just also an auxiliary ball handler and all that. And I still, I still have to. I still have faith. But I was also wanting them to make the freaking semis for the in season tournament so I can watch them here in Vegas. Like, you know, can we keep the NBA Cup? Can we, like, can you guys focus on the NBA cup so I can watch you here in Vegas? But no, I am a little worried because they're. There's a little bit too much of this kind of lackadaisicalness, especially on the defensive end. And Rudy Gobert has kind of said, oh, yeah, it's on me, but you know, that's Rudy. And it doesn't help when Carl Anthony towns is dropping 40 something in New York even though they lost still, you know, that. That doesn't help. But. So I have a little bit more panic even though I've been. I'm still optimistic about this team because I just love Anthony Edwards so, so much.

[Bill Simmons]

I said this on Tuesday night's pod because we did a pod after NBA cup. And I was saying with the Timberwolves, it's early. You don't want to panic. Edwards is obviously better than he was last year, so that's a bonus. With that said, I just like the team from March, April, May, more. I thought they were so unique. I didn't really know what the ceiling was. It was. But they were a one of one. There was nobody else like them in the league. And now I just feel like they're another team.

[Brian Phillips]

Oh, that is. It's one of my biggest beliefs in sports is you gotta zag when everyone else is zigging and going, we need swing. You know, we need all these swing guys. We need all these wings. And they're like, no, we're getting three centers.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

And we're gonna just go down your throat because you're like a, you know, triple option team in college. Shoot. We only face this once a year. Like, oh, God. All right. How do we defend this? Oh, God, they're so unique. And yeah, in a playoff time, when you get the repeat matchups. But the thing is, who's still the, you know. Well, other than the Thunder, the Nuggets, they had the best counter for the Nuggets. They could just keep throwing size at them one, you know, one after Guy.

[Bill Simmons]

Jokic and all the guys Dallas series. Really. Well, it's two things. One is it's financially, it's just so much harder to keep anything together. And it was clearly a financial move first. But I also think that Dallas beat them in a way that made them think, like, all right, we solved Denver, but now we have Dallas and OKC to worry about for the rest of the decade. And maybe we should zag again. But I just. I don't like when you're doing something that, you know, you're being mentioned with some of the great teams in the last 35 years of the league at. And now you just seem like you're an ordinary team, defensive. I know they're not ordinary. Cause they have Gobert and they have Edwards. McDaniels is playing better, but just feels different. I'm not going to panic until 30 games. I know you're an actual fan, so you're panicking now.

[Brian Phillips]

No, I don't. Well, for me, my NBA fandom really starts after the All Star Game because that's when, like, it's perfect super bowl happens.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

NBA All Star game. Okay. Now I can start paying attention to other things. But now they're on a lot more national TV games, and so I can't avoid them. And. And so, yeah, I. I do have some doubt. But I. I am an optimist. Overall. I do trust Edwards. I do trust Finch.

[Bill Simmons]

So are you rooting against Towns like a scorn lover and he's on a new team. You're just like, I hope that guy goes 2 for 14 every night.

[Brian Phillips]

I wouldn't say it's rooting against, but I would just say, you know, Knicks fans, get ready for some bad fouls. At the worst times and get ready for some frustrating phase. Get ready for some frustrating turnovers where you're like, weren't you a coach's kid?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Phillips]

You know, get ready for those. On top of the moments of brilliance where you watch one of the best offensive big men you'll ever see in most skilled guys. But yeah, he's, he's a very frustrating player. I'll tell you, Carl, I've, I've had some swear words. Carl Anthony Town while watching him.

[Bill Simmons]

Nate Tice, great to see you. You can read and follow Nate through the whole Yahoo sports network. Great to see you. Thanks for, thanks for being here on Drake May island with me.

[Brian Phillips]

Thanks for having me. I'll look over your yard. Let me know if you ever need sugar.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, we're bringing house back to do million dollar picks. But before we do that, it's time for today's player bundle segment presented by our friends at State Farmhouse. Yeah, it's tough to crown the best play in football history. No one can deny the magic when the right two players work together to pull off the unexpected. Like for me, Brady and Edelman during the comeback against the Seahawks that culminated in the Malcolm Butler game. Little Edelman, Brady, magic. What do you have for in Washington history?

[Joe House]

It's gotta be. It's gotta involve John Riggins. It's gotta involve Joe Theisman. Joe Theisman handed off to John Riggins. Super Bowl 17, 1983. The David. There we go. That's the one.

[Bill Simmons]

I remember as a kid, John Riggins, who everyone was saying was a character. And when we were kids we didn't know what that meant. But it could have gone in a variety of directions. But one of the reasons he was a character was he got the mohawk haircut once. Remember like years before on another team.

[Joe House]

He also told the supreme court justice to loosen up.

[Bill Simmons]

He also did that.

[Joe House]

Loosen up, Sandy baby.

[Bill Simmons]

He was a true 80s character and also had a little synergy with Joe Heisman. You know what else is better together? Building your home and auto insurance with the personal price plan from State Farm. The personal price plan which call the place so you can choose the right coverage at a price that's right for you. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. All right, we're going to talk some million dollar picks I'm still upset about what happened last week. We basically split last week. And one of the reasons we. Even though I felt like we were all over the slate and we couldn't figure out a good way to bet on the Lions. So we did the Lions first half, Lions game, that loss. Yeah, we really liked the Dolphins and we tried to get cute. We did dolphins plus four and a half with the over 42 and a half. And of course they. They just figured out a way to not get to 40 points in that game. Uh, I don't know what the Rams are doing, so we lost those two. But we hit Eagles, Chargers, tees. We had Steelers, Washington, we had Cards, Jets. Like, I feel like I have a nice feel for the slate and I like this week. And I don't know, do you want to do Chiefs, Bills, last or first?

[Joe House]

Let's do it first. Let's go ahead and just, you know, sort of crush this because I'm having a hard time with this game. I'm going to confess to you right off the top, it feels like a Bill spot to me. It feels like a great spot for the Bills at home. Coming off of the last two seasons, regular season wins against the Chiefs. You know, it matters. Now, look, with where the Bills are with only two losses, it's kind of crucial in terms of the seating for the afc. So that would be the argument for the Chiefs going all out here. The Chiefs are not walking in here looking to concede anything to the Bills. But I don't know, it just feels like a Bill spot to me.

[Bill Simmons]

As in a Bills minus two and a half. You'd want to bet that spot and bet against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, even though his. What is he, 13? One and One as an underdog career.

[Joe House]

No. Under no circumstances am I betting against Patrick.

[Brian Phillips]

All right.

[Bill Simmons]

I just wanted to make sure. I thought you. I didn't know if you're a Buzz House or I just did Heroin House. Cause there's no way we're betting it's Patrick Mahomes.

[Joe House]

No, no, no, no. No chance. Absolutely no chance.

[Bill Simmons]

So I do think it's probably going to be a close game, and I was looking at a couple of spots to bump that from a plus two and a half to either a plus three and a half or a plus four and a half. I think the Chiefs can also win. It's of course. It's of course. No, I'm just like. I'm saying, like, we could just bet the money line, but the Bills, it's a more important game for them for nine different reasons.

[Joe House]

That's what I think.

[Bill Simmons]

And that part worries me. I wonder if the Chiefs a month from now and they have all their weapons back will be a slightly different thing. But I just like the football matchup for them with the. The type of defense the Bills have versus what the Chiefs have just been good at are these long drives. Third and fours, third and sevens. Just moving the chains. Moving the chains. And I think you can do that against the belt and then go deep on them. I think the fact that Baltimore looks so good against that Buffalo D that time, I don't think that's not nothing like when they went against a really good quarterback, they got kind of torched. So yeah.

[Joe House]

What scares me like inside the X's and the O's is how hurt Buffalo is at the receiver position. And if they try to establish the run, then you're. Then you're in trouble because the Chiefs have a dominant chief.

[Bill Simmons]

So it looks like Kincaid. Dalton Kincaid might not play.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And even if he plays this hurt Amara Cooper's hurt. I don't know what's going to. We're taping this on a Thursday. I don't think this is the right version of the Bills team right to because I think realistically you need to get to 27 points to beat this Chiefs team. Make them put up points back. But anyway, there's a couple things I have with Chiefs plus three and a half or Chiefs plus four and a half tied to the Lions.

[Joe House]

Let me ask you this before you do it. Why aren't we just auto teasing the Chiefs? Taking the Chiefs from two and a half up to eight and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

I looked at that. Couldn't really find the second team that I felt awesome about. Like you suggested, the Dolphins. I don't trust the Dolphins. I don't trust this jockey Mike McDaniel. I don't want to put him in a tease.

[Joe House]

I'll confess I've had some misgivings my own self.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't want Tua like when Tua trying to tackle that dude on the interception and it seems like he got hit in that. I just don't want any part of that. So one of the things I was thinking was you could take the Chiefs to plus four and a half. You could do the Detroit first half game bet against the Jaguars, who they're favored by 13 and a half against Mac Jones. That's minus 102. You could do Chiefs plus three and a half, Lions minus two and a half against the Jags. That's minus 1 19, basically. Maybe that's kind of like that one. By that extra half point. Lions just have to win by three.

[Joe House]

Yeah. Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Is Mac Jones going to win in Detroit?

[Joe House]

Nope. No, sir.

[Bill Simmons]

No.

[Joe House]

No, he is not.

[Bill Simmons]

He's not winning. Okay, so I'll mark that down. Next one. Both of us, like the Broncos are home for the Falcons and this line is under three, and it's a gift from the gods. Denver's defense, first yards per play, second in sacks, third in QB. Hits their top 10 against the run and the pass. Atlanta's defense, 32nd in sacks, 31st in QB, hits 24th against the pass, 28th against third down. Here's my point. I think Denver's D can chase Kirk a little bit, make some plays, and I think Bo Nix is going to have time to throw and he feels like he's getting a little bit better every week. Nate Tice talked about it. He's turned into, like, he's a serviceable starter. They can run the ball. I like this rookie that's going to play for them that everybody's grabbing, including in our keeper league. I grabbed them. Estein. Estein, whatever his name is.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Seems like they're excited about him, but I think they can run the ball. I don't think the Falcons are good. How about that?

[Joe House]

Not only do I share this opinion, I think the Broncos. I'm going to be looking at some alt lines to lay.

[Bill Simmons]

We did that last Denver. Yeah.

[Joe House]

Well, no, I'm going to lay extra to get some juice on it for Denver because I think they might beat the hell out of Atlanta. It's Atlanta, you know, to Denver, the altitude, it's outdoors. So the version of the Atlanta offense that has been successful, the wins that they've collected, that's not going to be. And I just think this Denver defense is going to be getting up the field and into Kirk Cousins and making him uncomfortable. And Bo Nicks has shown us, you know, he's got a string of over 200 yard games and confident. Yeah, a couple touchdowns. I mean, I think it's a. It's a great spot for Denver. Plus, Sean Payton's not going to lose three straight games. I mean, they. They lost to Baltimore. Fair enough. They lost to the Chiefs in a game they had won until the last play of the game.

[Bill Simmons]

So the Chiefs cheated. Let's be honest. What the hell was that? Have you seen some of the Internet videos of that? Are you allowed to put 19 guys on one side of the line and just Knock the left guard flying backwards with seven guys. Thought we outlined that.

[Joe House]

That's the A side team right there. That's the Chiefs. That's the A side team.

[Bill Simmons]

So, yeah, Atlanta on the road. They've had four road games so far. We two. Philly game was over. Philly fucked it up and Atlanta scored at the end, one by one. Carolina, they killed. Tampa, barely won, easily could have lost. And then New Orleans, they lost. You go look at through their wins and it's just like they easily could be three. They have six wins. They also easily could be like three and seven. Yeah, yeah, they're three plays away from being a three and seven team. I. I just don't think they're impressive. I thought that New Orleans loss was awful.

[Joe House]

I don't think there's any difference between the. These two teams in terms of, you know, power ranking and all the rest of it. I prefer Denver.

[Bill Simmons]

Me too. I think Denver's like, oh, sorry, you lost to Baltimore and Kansas City. Like, I still feel like they're back weeks. Yeah, they're the good, bad team. I'm in on Denver. So Denver -2 and a half will mark that. I hesitate to bring this one up, but. Colts plus three and a half against the Jets. It feels like a unique chance to bet against a downtrodden jets team that has sucked the soul and life and spirit out of the fans, out of the city, out of the players on the team. The Rodgers thing. Tim Keown had a thing on espn. He had a whole story about the last four weeks of Rodgers. You read that and it's like, this is bad. And it was no, like, not a lot of smoking gun stories, but it's just like, this sucks. He's. This is gone. It couldn't have gone worse. Their season's over. I don't think they like playing with Rogers. They built the whole team around him and he's. He's banged up and probably broken. And then you have the Colts who are getting points, The jets, their 30th, rushing the Colts. That's the one way to beat them, is to run on them. The jets are bad at running the ball, as anyone has. Breeze hall knows. I just feel like the Colts can get on track, but Anthony Richards is starting. Richardson is starting.

[Joe House]

So here, here's the thing, and I do want to lean into the Colts, but it would be with caution. There is a bet out there that I think is a tremendous bet, and it's Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards. I think he might run for 100 yards. Like, I, I'm not, I'm not suggesting anybody wager on that. But I think that the commitment that Shane Steichen is, is going to make to getting Richardson's confidence back. The thing that he is best at is moving the football with his legs. They are going to give that man the green light. And the thing that we have seen with this jets defense again and again and again is they are not tough. That is not a tough defense. They don't like to take on big. What we saw in terms of the Cardinals running the ball right down the jets throat, the 50 yard play, you know, right before halftime with the Cardinals against the jets, that's. That's the identity of this jets defense. I love the Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards. That's my favorite, one of my favorite bets of the weekend.

[Bill Simmons]

So they're plus three and a half. What if I offered you Colts minus two and a half parlayed with Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards is plus 366.

[Joe House]

I mean, how am I allowed to say fuck yes on this podcast?

[Bill Simmons]

You're. I mean, you know the answer to that because. What are you talking about?

[Joe House]

I had. I love that one. I adore.

[Bill Simmons]

The other way to do that is just do the colts money line. Plus 176. That's plus 309.

[Joe House]

Where do you think Aaron Rodgers is going to go in the Trump administration? He's going to be the ambassador. Where is he going to be in the ambassador. The ambassador to.

[Bill Simmons]

He's going to be the ambassador of Askaluso.

[Joe House]

Is he going to South America?

[Bill Simmons]

Turning into my dad. Ayahuasca.

[Joe House]

Ayahuasca.

[Bill Simmons]

Where he's going to be the ambassador of Ayahuasca.

[Joe House]

We could be the ambassador. And Oskaloosa, they could send him to Tahiti. Where does he want to go? He's definitely going to get a job in the administration.

[Bill Simmons]

So Colts plus three and a half with Richardson over 38 and a half is plus 209.

[Joe House]

Let's do that. That's fun.

[Bill Simmons]

Plus three and a half. It's a field goal game.

[Brian Phillips]

Okay.

[Joe House]

Don't you think that's fun?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, that's a good one. Plus every time. Richardson. The fun thing about that is it is fun to watch him run. You sure you don't want to do the plus 366 where they win by two and a half?

[Joe House]

Two in a small. You know, like we did last week. We did. We put 10 grand on some ridiculous. Yeah, both The Giants and somebody else to win. Oh, San Francisco that lost those, those two teams.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. By the way, I don't feel like the Colts are that bad. I thought Flacco and I thought it was the right move to start and Flacco was terrible.

[Joe House]

Yeah, it's.

[Bill Simmons]

It's officially over. I don't know what happened to him in the Browns for those five, six weeks, but he's back to being the Joe Flacco we remembered and love betting against.

[Joe House]

I tried to do my earth say impression on Monday because I'm so on east coast. On our East coast bias podcast, I'm 1000% positive that Irsay, after Richardson tapped out and said that in that press conference, he came downstairs and get this guy, this guy. I can't have this guy.

[Bill Simmons]

He's a quitter. Yeah, he just got back.

[Joe House]

I can't have a quitter running my team. Shane, you gotta get this guy. And Shane's like, okay, okay, it's your team. It's your team. It wasn't the right football decision. It wasn't the right franchise decision, but you know, they did what the owner wanted and now we're back to the football plan and Shane Steichen has the football plan. So we're doing the right thing here.

[Bill Simmons]

Next one. I think we are in violent agreement. Chargers against the Bengals. Chargers laying minus one and a half Bengals in a must win spot. A very popular public team. Explosive offense, fourth passing Burroughs been a fantasy God and yet I love the Chargers. Is this our argue pick?

[Joe House]

I don't know. The concern is burrow these nuts. We burrowed these nuts. He is on a heater. He's been incredible. And those weapons are unlike any weapons that the Chargers have seen to this point.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, but we don't even know if Higgins is playing.

[Joe House]

It's still.

[Bill Simmons]

He's got the red flag next to him. Believe me, I have him in fantasy. It's questionable.

[Joe House]

And they can't run the ball. The Bengals. They can't run the ball.

[Bill Simmons]

Cannot run the ball.

[Joe House]

This is a, this, this is the Bengals season because they can't. They are behind both the Chargers and the Broncos and if they lose to either one of these teams, that's it. Season's over. They can't climb.

[Bill Simmons]

I take season's not over.

[Joe House]

Why?

[Bill Simmons]

I don't think it's over if they lose the game.

[Joe House]

Give me the, give me the rundown.

[Bill Simmons]

I think nine wins is going to get the seven seed in the AFC right now they have four wins. They lose this Chargers game, they have at home, Pittsburgh, week 13 at Dallas, at Tennessee. Those are going to be two wins.

[Joe House]

Now we're at six.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Home, Cleveland, that's seven. They get to play Denver. Week 17, that's eight. And then they're at Pittsburgh, week 18. So it's not necessary. They just have to split the Pittsburgh games. Beat Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, Denver, and they get to nine wins.

[Joe House]

They need these teams. They need the Chargers and the Broncos both to fall off.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, but they could take care of Denver by themselves in week 17. Look, it wouldn't be great if they lost this game. I'm not saying it would be, but.

[Joe House]

The reason I like the Chargers is because very quietly, Herbert is healthy. He's throwing the ball downfield. They have vertical weapons. And Herbert is. Speaking of being in his bag. There's a physicality to him. You forget that he's a tough sob6x. That big boy has been, has played hurt a lot in his career. We've seen him take shots, and he's taken on the personality of Harbaugh a little bit. I like this little bit of a swagger that I'm seeing out of them. I like the idea of the Chargers here. I want to just be cautious, that's all.

[Bill Simmons]

They have six wins. They're playing. This is the hardest part of their schedule. Home Cincy, home Baltimore, at Atlanta, at KC. So realistically, they probably have to go 2 and 2 to really feel good about the playoffs. But this is where I've landed. I think the line is two points off. I think they should be three and a half point favorites.

[Brian Phillips]

Wow.

[Bill Simmons]

What have the Bengals done to deserve anything? They're poorly coached. Their defense is awful.

[Joe House]

They have four sucks. They have four wins against teams that, if you add up all their Victories are not nine victories. Their four wins that come against teams with nine total wins.

[Bill Simmons]

Their defense, 31st in the red zone, feels worse. 29th on third down, 27th on first down. Giving them up, 23rd against the pack. I just think. I think the Chargers are legit. Good. And then I'll throw this at you. On one sideline, Jim Harbaugh. On the other side, Zach Taylor. I just think they have the advantages. And this is going to be a rare Chargers home game where there's not going to be 30,000 of the other team's fans in the building, because it's not like there's going to be 30,000 Bengals fans there. I think people like this Chargers team. There's an energy around them right now, and. And I think Herbert's playing great. And they could run the ball. I trust their receivers. Their receivers are getting open than third downs. I think to me, this game reminds me of Arizona jets last week where I just feel like the line's off. I thought last week I thought that Cardinals line was. Was idiotic, and I think this line's idiotic.

[Joe House]

The Chargers also have Greg Roman in their mix who has all that experience from his time with with Baltimore, going up against this, this Bengals team, you know, going up against this Bengals defense. Yeah, I like the. I like the Chargers.

[Bill Simmons]

This seems like a very public bet where people look at it and they go, well, the Bengals need the game and Burrows playing well, so they're going to get it. And I don't think that's a good reason. The Chargers are a really good football team.

[Joe House]

I don't think they're both sides.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't think they're on that Chiefs, Ravens, Bills level. But I think they're a notch below. And I think they'd be a really dangerous seven point underdog in a round one playoff game.

[Joe House]

How about this? I was looking for a possible angle to tease the Bengals, but then you look at the Chargers wins. They're all by margin. All of the Chargers wins have been at least seven points.

[Bill Simmons]

Their defense says, yeah, their defense gets better as the game goes along.

[Joe House]

They choke the life out of you.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Joe House]

All right, all right.

[Bill Simmons]

So here's the game I really want to dive into. Raven Steelers. It's in Pittsburgh. Ravens are favored by 3. Steelers are 7 and 2. Mike Tomlin is a home underdog. Whole bunch of reasons to be like, ah, of course we've taken the Steelers all year. I think we've taken them six times. A million dollar picks. We have a bunch of futures with them. The thing that worries me, House, this isn't the type of team that should succeed against Baltimore because Baltimore 32nd against the pass, right? You want to throw on him. You want to do what Burrow did last week. Pittsburgh wants to win like they beat you guys in Washington last week, where they want to run the ball, pound the ball, control the clock, then every once in a while throw deep down one of the sidelines, but win with defense. And I, that's not how you beat Baltimore. You beat Baltimore by throwing the ball on them because they suck on pass defense. And yet Pittsburgh's 26th. But they're passing offense, their defense, their top five in a whole bunch of stuff. First down, run, red zone hits, turnovers. But Baltimore's offense is first in basically anything, everything. And it just Feels to me like Baltimore is going to be able to control this game and maybe they'll end up Pittsburgh wind up splitting the series. But I don't like the spot for Pittsburgh. I think this is a bad matchup for them. So how do you see it?

[Joe House]

So we just need to understand what we're walking into. Right. Because underdogs in this series, you know which other team is the underdog? 10, 1 and 1 against the spread. 9 and 3 straight up in the last 12 matchups. So just that each of the last five times that the Steelers have been underdogs, they have won outright and over history. These two guys, Tomlin and Harbaugh, the underdog, they faced each other 32 times. The underdog is 23, 6 and 3 against the spread. It's just insane. Pittsburgh the underdog when the line is three points or more. 18, two and three between these two guys. So that's what you're up against when you're walking into this. But look, here's the thing. I'm not going to make the whole handicap about one guy. It's just a big deal for Pittsburgh to not have Alex Highsmith because the. What he brings to them pass rush wise.

[Bill Simmons]

I got it out a pass. Pass rush. Collinsworth. Yeah, he. He brought a balance right now, that balance. Cause we've seen it where we've. There's been guys missing help. It was missing for a couple games and it felt like they were back and now all of a sudden they're not back anymore.

[Joe House]

There is not a defense on earth that can slow down this Ravens team, it seems. So you have to believe there's a significant advantage which is crazy for the Steelers at. In special teams. We. You know, it's a rarity to talk about Baltimore being behind anybody else in special teams, but they are highly mediocre, highly average because Justin Tucker's fallen off a little bit. Their punter shanked a punt against the Raiders and that is how the Raiders came back in week two.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Joe House]

And the Steelers are doing what they do. I mean their third DVOA on.

[Bill Simmons]

So maybe it's a Stay away.

[Joe House]

I'd like a teaser leg.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, come on.

[Joe House]

To me, I would tease the Steelers up to nine and tease the Chiefs up to eight and a half and two and just have these. These classic fist fight almost like Jake Paul and Mike Tyson brought a classic heavyweight brawl and make sure you're getting enough points on both side of it and then just let those. These teams do what they do, which is play close games and Rest peacefully with your winnings.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I don't feel okay.

[Joe House]

It's.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't feel great about it. Maybe it's a stay away.

[Joe House]

Okay. It's probably a stay away because we're trying to talk ourselves into the Ravens and every single piece of data over 20 years says, and meanwhile, stewards +3.

[Bill Simmons]

At home is exactly the type of bet that I would do without blinking.

[Joe House]

Right, Right.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball on the Ravens at all. So now we're just putting the game in Russ's hands against. You know what the thing is Crappy past defense.

[Joe House]

If you really, really, really want to bet the Ravens, make sure that Kyle Hamilton check on a daily basis. How's Kyle Hamilton doing?

[Bill Simmons]

Right. You ready? You might not play either.

[Joe House]

What are the reports about how he's feeling, how he's doing? How does he look? Is he a go? Is he not a goal? If you have to bet the Ravens, that's the key.

[Bill Simmons]

So you really like Browns plus one and a half against the Saints?

[Joe House]

I love it. I. It's. It's the Jameis return game. Jamis back to New Orleans, going right to Commander's palace and getting to sit down with two dozen oysters. It's the Browns off the bye week. Here's. Here's the distinguishing factor. Look at the Browns injury report. I'll tell you quickly, there are no names on it. The Browns. It's the healthiest this Browns team has been all season long. And, you know, coming into the season, there was reasonable optimism for the Browns. I think their win total was eight and a half. And so that's a team. And the strength was supposed to be in the trenches for this Browns team. Their defensive front seven. Their offensive line, well, their offensive line was basically hurt all the way up until this last, you know, two weeks. And they. Because of the way the season has gone, they traded Zendaria Smith in the last handful of weeks. But I think it's just the Saints team. They got the new coach Bounce. They got rid of Dennis.

[Bill Simmons]

They won one for the Clogger.

[Joe House]

That's the best. It's an amazing run for the Cloggers. One and oh, the Sunday night Bill Simmons podcast with cousin Sal between. Middle. Middle coach.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, we've had a good run of coach Sick Thames. Yeah. So the Clogger guys win.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I think the Saints are terrible.

[Joe House]

They are terrible. Are they going to be able to throw three bombs to Marquez Valdez? Scantling? I can't even say the names again? I don't think so.

[Bill Simmons]

I, like, can I redo some really Fun Cleveland offense vs. New Orleans defense matchups for this game?

[Joe House]

It's going to be hilarious.

[Bill Simmons]

Cleveland's offense, 32nd in yards per play. New Orleans defense, 32nd in yards per play.

[Joe House]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Cleveland's offense, 28th pass. New Orleans defense, 29th pass.

[Joe House]

There we go.

[Bill Simmons]

Cleveland's offense, 28th with the run. New Orleans defense, 27th. And then Cleveland's offense 32nd hits to the quarterback. So last. They've given up the most quarterback hits. New Orleans 27th and hitting the quarterback. So this is like the worst possible offense against the worst possible defense. Basically, what a master said. Browns are healthier. Nick Chubb, who had a bye week last week, who was finally starting. Maybe this is like the Nick Chubb game. Jamis going to New Orleans. I kind of like the Browns. I'm with you.

[Joe House]

Isn't that fun? Let's do it. Plus, the line is so crazy.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. The Saints being favored, the Cloggers favored.

[Joe House]

Look at the price. It's like even money to take the favored team. And you have to lay crazy juice if you want to take the Browns. It's like minus 125 to get the one and a half points. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Why is that? The brown. Yeah, they're minus 122 plus one. So. So is this is a moneyline bet then?

[Joe House]

Yes. Yes, clearly.

[Bill Simmons]

Minus Browns minus 108. Okay, that sounds good. All right. I think we have our. Was there anything else you liked or.

[Joe House]

No, that was it. That's probably my favorite bet. The Browns, because it's. It's so dumb and hilarious.

[Bill Simmons]

I think the Rams pats line is like a point and a half too high toward the Rams. It's Rams minus four and a half, but I don't want to bet it. And I also don't know why we don't have money in the packers minus five and a half against Chicago, but it almost looks like a. Looks like a trap game. All right, that's good. So million dollar picks. All right. I have a handle on it. Let me ask you this. If I told you we could do Chiefs plus three and a half parlayed with Lions minus two and a half, minus 119. And we do Chiefs plus eight and a half, Steelers plus nine, Tees, would you want to do both of those or just pick one?

[Joe House]

Let's do both.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay.

[Joe House]

We don't have to do enormous amounts.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, it's time. Million dollar picks, week 11. Last week we lost $10,000 house. I don't know how we did it. It felt like we were all over the slate. We're still up with $768,000 for the year. First bet Broncos home against the wildly overrated Falcons. This is only a minus two and a half. We think this gets to three by Sunday, right? Broncos by three on Sunday for sure.

[Joe House]

For sure. But we're, we're positive expected. We, we beat the closing line value here on million dollar picks.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, we do it on Thursday nights. We're grabbing it early. We love the Broncos defense. Not sold to the Falcons at all. They could easily be a three win team. And Sean Payton, I just them at home. Bo, Nick showing some signs of life. They got three running backs going. Broncos minus two Nap. That's our first one. Second one is one that House liked. Colts plus three and a half against the jets. Just because if we can bet against the jets every week, we're just going to do it until Rogers get shut down.

[Joe House]

That's right.

[Bill Simmons]

Anthony Richardson's in this game. House, you had a theory about what Steichen's going to do with Richardson.

[Joe House]

I really think that they're going to put the ball in his hands and let him have the green light to run early, to run often and just like reestablish himself, reestablish the team's confidence in him. He's a tough guy. He's going to show them that he's a tough guy. He's going to get the job done. And Ambassador Rogers can't wait to go off to his exotic destination.

[Bill Simmons]

So we that was plus 209. Colts plus three and a half with Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards plus two and nine. We're gonna put 100K on that one. Chargers minus one and a half against the Bengals. I love this bet. I think the line should be Chargers minus three and a half. The Bengals people are just like, oh, the Bengals, they need the game. They can throw the ball. I am in on the Chargers. I think they are a really good, complete, well coached team that can run it. They can throw it. They have a top five or six defense. And I think the Bengals are really one dimensional. They make dumb turnovers. They do stupid 4th and 2 and they go for it. They get stuffed. Their defense is awful. And I think the Chargers win this game outright. So we're putting 200k on them and the Broncos minus two and a half as well. And then we're going to put 200K in the Browns minus 108 against the Clogger and the New Orleans Saints make the case really fast.

[Joe House]

Tough spot for the Saints with the injuries that they have, the Browns are coming off a buy with a clean bill of health. Jameis Winston back to the scene of many crimes, none of which have been reported, but he gets to get back to Commander Palace. We love the Browns offensive line, defensive front seven. They're going to put pressure on Derek Carr. No receivers left except for mvs. Good luck to the Saints.

[Bill Simmons]

A lot of pick six misdemeanors and a lot of picks crossing route misdemeanors by Jamis. Last but not least, we're going to do something a little different. Put a little more in this Chiefs game because it's Chiefs, Bills, Chiefs. Yeah, getting two and a half and we're going to tweak this in two different ways for 150,000 each. First chiefs up to plus three and a half. We're going to buy a point and combine it with the Lions minus two and a half against the Jaguars and Mac Jones. The Lions are huge favorites in Detroit. So we're going to use that. That's minus 119. Then we're going to tease the Chiefs to plus eight and a half with the Steelers where we went back and forth. We have to put money on this game. Somehow we've decided this is a touchdown game one way or the other because we are better for so long. We realize, oh it's in Pittsburgh. Steelers or underdogs is a great spot for them. Let's just tease them to plus nine and enjoy it. So we're going to put 150,000 on both of those bets. And the case is it's the Chiefs. Their record is what, 27? 1 and 1 as underdogs with Mahomes 127. I don't know how many times he's covered it. He's only lost once in the Bills home of the 13 seconds game. Bills are a little banged up. I just think the Chiefs have a better team. I think the line's insulting. I think Mahomes should be insulted. So we're putting bets on both of those. So to recap, 200k on Broncos minus two and a half, Browns minus 108 to win outright, Chargers minus one and a half. Then we're doing the Joe House parlay. Colts plus three and a half with Richardson 38.5. Rush 100k to win plus 209 on that and then 250k bets. Chiefs plus three and a half parlayed with the Lions minus two and a half and then the Chiefs plus eight and a half. Steelers plus nine as a teaser. But before we go, I have to ask you this Joe House. Do we do the cousin south special with the Steelers? Ravens win first half. Steelers win game 9 to 1 on FanDuel. How could we not 3 times this year already? How could we not 3 times already?

[Joe House]

Criminal negligence. For us to sit here with this opportunity, this marquee game and not get in on this Cousin Sal special. It's a must have here on the million dollar piece.

[Bill Simmons]

Little 25k sprinkling.

[Joe House]

Yes. Have to do it.

[Bill Simmons]

Acquired mandatory 25k on the cousin Sal Steelers parlay. Steelers special. What's he calling it?

[Joe House]

He got to come up with a great name for it. I mean brand. He's a. He's a master at branding because Steelers special. Fine. Great.

[Bill Simmons]

The CSS.

[Joe House]

There we go.

[Bill Simmons]

25K on that. It is 9 to 1 on FanDuel. It's hit three times already this year. It would be hilarious if it hit again. Those are the million dollar picks for week 11. House buzzed house. Semi drunk House. Thanks for staying up late with us. Thanks for not offending us. Good luck with your C Cup parlay. What'd you call it? The C Cup booster.

[Joe House]

Well, you didn't get the C Cup profit booster, but I'll live with the C Cup parlay. I'm going to go to bed now and dream about where Ambassador Rogers is going to land.

[Bill Simmons]

Good to see you, House. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Joe House. Thanks to Nate Tice, thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerrudi. As always, don't forget you can watch clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons channel on YouTube. And I will be back on Sunday night with the cuz we'll be going live on YouTube as well. You can watch it as we do it if you want or you can just wait to listen to it later that night or the next day. Enjoy the weekend. I will see you Sunday night. Must be 21 plus in President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + in President D.C. gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support Massachusetts or call 1-8778. Hope NY or text Hope NY in New York.