Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast: Part 2 – Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview

Hosted by: Bill Simmons
Guests: Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Release Date: January 17, 2025

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Overview

In this episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, Bill Simmons teams up with NFL analysts Sheil Kapadia and Joe House to delve deep into the second round of the NFL playoffs. The trio breaks down key matchups, player performances, and strategic maneuvers while also sharing their expert picks for the upcoming games. Additionally, Bill takes a moment to highlight and support wildfire recovery efforts in Southern California, showcasing his commitment to community aid.

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Charitable Efforts and Wildfire Recovery
Timestamp: [05:00 – 06:00]

Before diving into the football analysis, Bill Simmons emphasizes the importance of supporting wildfire recovery in Southern California. He highlights five charities making significant impacts:

1. California Community Fund (calfund.org): Aids in distributing funds to critical areas affected by wildfires.
2. SoCal Fire Fund (eifoundation.org): Provides immediate and long-term support to communities, students, and families impacted by the January 2025 fires.
3. LAFD Foundation Emergency Fire Fund (supportlafd.org): Supplies essential equipment and funds programs to help the Los Angeles Fire Department protect lives and communities.
4. World Central Kitchen (WCK.org): Supports first responders and families in the LA area affected by wildfires.
5. Habitat for Humanity (habitat.org): Facilitates disaster response and rebuilding efforts for those displaced by wildfires.

Bill Simmons [05:00]:
"I'm committing $250,000 total, 50k a piece to the five that I just mentioned. And if you're listening, do whatever you want, do whatever you can. There's no right answer for any of this, but that is, that's what I'm doing at least."

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NFL Playoff Matchup Analyses

1. Eagles vs. Rams
   Timestamp: [06:00 – 09:00]

   Key Points:

   • Eagles’ Dominance: With Jalen Hurts at the helm, the Eagles have been undefeated since Week 4, showcasing a strong offensive line and explosive playmakers like A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley.
   • Rams’ Struggles: The Rams face challenges with inconsistent quarterback performance and injuries on the offensive line, making them vulnerable against a formidable Eagles defense.
   • Weather Impact: Playing in freezing temperatures and potential rain/snow could favor the Eagles, who excel in adverse conditions.

   Sheil Kapadia [07:02]:
   "I think the Eagles have advantages on both sides of the line. Both defensive line and offensive line..."

   Joe House [06:32]:
   "I've gone through this whole season where you're watching them. You're going this passing game kind of sucks sometimes... their talent usually just overwhelms the opponent."

2. Chiefs vs. Texans
   Timestamp: [20:00 – 23:00]

   Key Points:

   • Chiefs’ Resurgence: Patrick Mahomes is in prime form, leading a revitalized offense with healthy key players. Their strategy focuses on quick, methodical drives to counter the Texans' strong pass rush.
   • Texans’ Vulnerabilities: Despite a robust pass rush, the Texans’ offense has been inconsistent, ranking low in passing efficiency and struggling with offensive line issues.
   • Betting Insights: The Chiefs are favored by 8.5 points, but their tendency to win by close margins suggests considering teaser bets for better odds.

   Bill Simmons [22:05]:
   "Mahomes could be an FU playoff run. They are monster favorites at home and then they're potentially in the Super Bowl."

   Sheil Kapadia [22:05]:
   "Patrick Mahomes over one and a half passing touchdowns is a solid bet for me."

3. Lions vs. Washington Commanders
   Timestamp: [37:00 – 43:00]

   Key Points:

   • Lions’ Strong Defense: Ranked in the top five for DVOA, the Lions boast a formidable defensive lineup capable of stifling Washington’s offense.
   • Washington’s Dependence on Jaden Daniels: While Daniels has been stellar, Washington relies heavily on his performance without significant contributions from defense, making them susceptible to strong runs by Detroit.
   • Strategic Plays: Washington aims for long, methodical drives, but Detroit’s ability to establish the run could disrupt their game plan.

   Joe House [37:42]:
   "I think Jaden Daniels has the ability to pull off a couple key plays against Washington."

   Sheil Kapadia [40:41]:
   "Jaden Daniels doesn’t get to play defense. The offense needs to do all the heavy lifting."

4. Ravens vs. Bills
   Timestamp: [49:00 – 54:00]

   Key Points:

   • Ravens’ Balanced Attack: With Derrick Henry leading the run game and a sturdy defense, the Ravens are well-positioned to challenge the Bills.
   • Bills’ Defensive Concerns: The Bills’ defense is light on the front seven, making them vulnerable to Baltimore’s robust offensive strategies.
   • Quarterback Dynamics: Josh Allen’s performance is pivotal, but facing a well-constructed Ravens defense may tilt the odds in Baltimore’s favor.

   Sheil Kapadia [50:00]:
   "Josh Allen needs to do a lot of moving and use his legs against this Ravens defense. It’s going to be tough."

   Joe House [53:37]:
   "Derrick Henry is going to get yards, and Lamar Jackson is going to get yards. Can the Bills match them possession for possession?"

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Strategic Betting Picks

Timestamp: [57:00 – 70:00]

Million Dollar Picks for Round 2:

1. Eight-Point Teaser on FanDuel

   • Teams: Chiefs (-8.5), Eagles (-6.5), Lions (-8.5)
   • Bet Amount: $300,000
   • Rationale: Balancing strong favorites ensures a higher probability of covering the spread across multiple games.

   Bill Simmons [69:38]:
   "We are teasing all of them down. It is even odds on FanDuel."

2. Ravens (-1.5) vs. Bills

   • Bet Amount: $250,000
   • Rationale: Despite strong performances from Josh Allen, the Ravens’ balanced offense and superior defense present a difficult challenge for the Bills.

   Bill Simmons [69:43]:
   "Bad matchup, wrong team, wrong time. Ravens minus one and a half."

3. Prop Bets

   • Patrick Mahomes Over 25 Rushing Yards (+110): Expecting Mahomes to utilize his legs more in the playoffs.
     Joe House [60:13]:
     "Mahomes can have more rushing yards with the Texans' man coverage forcing him to make plays."

   • Saquon Barkley Over 19 Yards on Longest Run (+155): Anticipating Barkley’s significant contributions on the ground.
     Sheil Kapadia [64:46]:
     "Both Saquon and Derrick Henry are going to get the ball a lot and break one of them over the course of the game."

   • Jaylen McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (+850): Projecting explosive plays from Washington’s top receiver.
     Joe House [66:02]:
     "McLaurin is their go-to target and will capitalize against Detroit’s man coverage."

4. Additional Bets:

   • Matthew Stafford and CJ Stroud to Each Throw an Interception (+195): Given the defensive strengths of their opponents and potential weather impacts.
     Bill Simmons [62:00]:
     "Stafford and Stroud are in bad weather games against tough defenses. It’s a risky but potentially rewarding bet."

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Final Thoughts

Bill Simmons, alongside Sheil Kapadia and Joe House, provides a comprehensive analysis of the NFL’s second playoff round, highlighting key matchups and strategic betting opportunities. Their insights into player performances, team strategies, and game dynamics offer listeners a nuanced understanding of what to expect in the high-stakes postseason. Additionally, Bill’s dedication to supporting wildfire recovery underscores the podcast’s commitment to community and social responsibility.

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Notable Quotes

• Bill Simmons [05:00]:
  "I'm committing $250,000 total, 50k a piece to the five that I just mentioned..."

• Sheil Kapadia [07:02]:
  "I think the Eagles have advantages on both sides of the line..."

• Joe House [06:32]:
  "I've gone through this whole season where you're watching them... their talent usually just overwhelms the opponent."

• Bill Simmons [20:20]:
  "The Jaguars are just rooting for the Jaguars."

• Sheil Kapadia [40:41]:
  "Jaden Daniels doesn’t get to play defense. The offense needs to do all the heavy lifting."

• Joe House [53:37]:
  "Derrick Henry is going to get yards, and Lamar Jackson is going to get yards. Can the Bills match them possession for possession?"

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Conclusion

This episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast offers an in-depth exploration of the NFL playoffs, enriched with expert analysis and strategic betting advice. Bill Simmons, alongside his guests, navigates the complexities of each matchup, providing listeners with valuable insights to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of the playoff season.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

Hey, Wemby and the spurs are going to be in Austin next month and I decided I wanted to see Wemby in Texas and I have to go. I'm going to see him live. But while I'm in town, let's get together. Let's do a live show at the Paramount Theater in Austin on Wednesday, February 19th. Tickets go on sale tomorrow at 10:00am Central Time. Again, live Austin, Wednesday, February 19th Paramount Theater. Some special guests. Basically the the BS podcast just doing its thing. Tickets go on sale Saturday at 10am Central Time. Details will be available at theringer.com events very soon. Hope to see you there. This episode is brought to you by American Primeval. Netflix has a new limited series again. It's called American Primeval, starring Taylor Kitsch, My guy and Betty Gilpin. Set in one of the most beautiful, brutal and isolated parts of America in 1857, American primeval is about people fighting over land, culture and survival in one of the most brutal, isolated parts of America, all while a mother fights to save her son as they try to survive in the wild. This is going to be epic. American Primeval is now playing only on Netflix. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. Here's the thing about prime. Whatever you're into, it makes it even better. I love because we watch a lot of prime movies for the rewatchables. I love being able to pop up the X ray thing that tells you what actors and what scene. I love that. I love being able to rent movies that just came out or buy them. If I'm excited to do that. From streaming to shopping, it's on Prime. Visit Amazon.comprime to get more out of whatever you're into. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed part one of this podcast, we put it up earlier today and it was a mid season power poll that I got a lot of takes off on and really had a good time. And then Joel Anderson and Van Lathan joined me to talk about college football and a whole bunch of other stuff. The Ohio State, Notre Dame game, Joel's five favorite things. Really fun pod, but we had to keep going because football is happening this weekend. Round two, NFL Playoffs. I have Sheil Capati and Joe House joining us. We're going to break down every game, our favorite parts of each matchup and then we're going to do some million dollar picks. I mentioned I wanted to talk about the wildfire recovery efforts out here in Southern California. I wanted to pass. Look, there's a Lot of great things happening. I wanted to pass along five charities that I really like. The Wildfire Recovery fund, which is calfund.org, it's set up by the California Community Fund that's just trying to get money to all the places we need as the Southern California is obviously in a major, major crisis right now. The SoCal Fire Fund, which you can find at eifoundation.org, eifoundation.org it provides immediate and long term support for community centered recovery initiatives that aid students, school employees and families impacted by the January 2025 fires. The third one is the LAFD Foundation Emergency Fire Fund which you can find at supportlafd.org they provide vital equipment and fund critical programs to help the LAFD save lives, protect communities. Then there's World Central Kitchen, WCK.org their relief team is in Southern California right now supporting first responders and families impacted by wildfires in the LA area. They have a link at the top when you go right to WCK to help Los Angeles specifically. And then last but not least, Habitat for Humanity which has really gotten involved in the last week, they have a disaster response fund set up on their [e-mail] for the wildfires. So I'm committing $250,000 total 50k a piece to the five that I just mentioned. And if you're listening, do whatever you want, do whatever you can. There's no right answer for any of this, but that is, that's what I'm doing at least. All right, we are going to talk football right now with SHIELD and House. Stay safe out there in Southern California. Hope everybody is good. We're going to talk some football right now. First our friends from Pro Jam. All right, we're taping this. It is Thursday afternoon Pacific time. Joe House is here because we do million dollar picks. We're not get to do them last week. We're going to try to bounce back strong this week. And we brought in the real star of the ringer Sunday pregame show, Shield Capadia who came, who comes in every couple weeks like Deon Waiters and just crushes it. Big heat checks from you. Congrats on that.

[Joe House]

Yeah, I said, you know on the show Indian Timothy Chalamet. You know he goes on game day and just goes in, crushes it, disappears. I feel like that was my role on, on the ringer wise guys this year.

[Sheil Kapadia]

I mean respectfully, everybody loves winners. We love having Sheil on. She comes on, all he does is give out winners. But respectfully if you're picking one thing a week like some of these winners were Deshaun Watson unders like okay, AJ Brown on on you know, catches the week after he complained he bitched like oh is AJ Brown got to get yes again.

[Bill Simmons]

We love winning Shields. Success looks like success comes with the backlash. You're feeling the backlash now.

[Joe House]

Minus 110 or better. Listen, that's all I look at and then I go with the pick. I'm retiring on top. Thank you.

[Bill Simmons]

Can we go right to the Eagles Rams game? We're going to break down all four games. Sheil is a, is a Philly student. You can see him on the ringer Philly special sometimes. So I do the playoff manifesto and I'm going to read all the rules in a second. The playoff manifesto goes back to the late 90s. I've been honing it, cultivating it, working it, adding rules, taking out rules. Eagles, Rams has more manifesto rules attached to it than, than any playoff game I can ever remember.

[Joe House]

Wow.

[Bill Simmons]

It has red flags. It has come hither. This is good. It is all over the map. Which is what I could imagine you're probably feeling with these Eagles game. Right.

[Joe House]

I actually feel like they're going to win pretty handily in this game. Yeah, I'm and I'm not usually like that. I've been on the, on the fence. I wasn't sure about that packers game. I feel pretty confident that the Eagles are going to win this game. So I need to hear the violations they have going in.

[Bill Simmons]

So we got to go through the manifesto before we do. House, you're leaning Eagles. You're Eagles ish too for this game, correct?

[Sheil Kapadia]

I'm, I'm beyond Eagles ish. I'm, I'm full on Eagle hump. I mean it's go Birds go. I, I, I think that this is a terrible spot for the Rams. I think that the Eagles have advantages on both sides of the the, the line. Both defensive line and offensive line is like we're playing in the, in the freezing effing cold and, and I know the team that has the better lines. Let's, let's, let's go let's, let's go.

[Bill Simmons]

Get a W. 35 degrees, maybe worse rain and snow potentially. Matthew Stafford coming from la. I'll go through some of the manifesto rules cause it really is eye opening. Rule number one, Beware of the looked a little too good the previous playoff round team that couldn't be more Ramsey. Rule number three Beware of the nobody believes in us team. Don't try to talk yourself into one either. I think the Rams are trying to There's a nobody believes in us case. Rule number four, A sad one, but beware of any team that might use a major off field distraction as a galvanizing force leading up to a game. We saw that last week, the Rams, all that, all the terrible stuff in la. It really seemed like it affected them in the game positively. Rule number six Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win. I'm going to stop there before I keep going with the rules. Do the Rams genuinely have a chance to win?

[Joe House]

SHIELD I don't think they have a great chance. The Eagles have not lost a game that Jalen Hurts has started and finished since September 29, week four. We've gone through this whole season where you're watching them. You're going this passing game kind of sucks sometimes. Every drop back is resulting in a sack or a throwaway and then their talent usually just overwhelms the opponent. There's one play by A.J. brown or Saquon Barkley or last week it's Dallas Goddard or, or Devonte Smith. It's like they don't have to be efficient down to down. And then what House said they've got probably the best offensive line in football. So I add all those things up and with as conservatively as Jalen Hurts is playing right now, for better or worse, they're not a team who's going to like give the game away. So every team always has a chance. We know that. But when you read that one out loud, that, that really rang true to me.

[Bill Simmons]

House is Sam Donald. Does it true he's living in your attic right now.

[Sheil Kapadia]

I mean he's welcome. And by the way, he's still going to get a great contract. It's not going to be the massive contract, but still, I mean a couple years, 25 million bucks, you could do worse. I mean, congratulations to him. What, what was his best hope for outcome when he took the ball on first down the first play of, of this season? I mean, I think if you told him how about another couple years and 25 million bucks. Are you good with that? I think he might have said yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Unfortunately it was the sports movie for him where the final scene was him, his teammates lifting him up after the packers game and going nuts. And the movie should have just ended, but there was 20 minutes to go in the movie and he got his ass kicked against the li by the Lions in the, in the in last week against the Rams Shield. We used to. We didn't talk about this on the pod. At least with you. Were you surprised that Darnold cratered like that? Because he wrote me in. He wrote me in. He wrote Salon. Did he rope you in? He kind of half roped you in. Red House, Darnold.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Well, sure, sure. He. A little bit. I mean, the thing that we couldn't divine on our own, it just revealed itself is that that offensive line for the Vikings suffered injuries on the left side that created some. Some mismatches for both Detroit and for the Rams. And that's what. Yeah, there was no. He held the ball too long. He froze. He went back to his old DNA.

[Bill Simmons]

But why does that happen against Green Bay Shield? What happened?

[Joe House]

Yeah, I mean, I wrote on the ringer in, like, week 14, I had this piece that said the Vikings can't make the Daniel Jones mistake with Sam Darnold. And then the next three weeks, he was awesome. And I'm like, shoot, I might have screwed that one up. And I think if you zoom out, I think part of it's what House said. I think part of it is we probably overrated that Vikings passing game. I mean, in the regular season, they were 14th in passing. DVOA. They were, like, statistically in the mediocre range. And then they have these two games where you have some protection issues. And a lot of what they did was based on the explosive passing game. And if he's holding onto the football and that's taken away, their run game was never really that efficient. They weren't that methodical. So, yeah, I got roped back in. I thought they were going to win that game. I thought that Lions game was kind of a blip on the radar and they were trending in the right direction, but it was kind of two games in a row where, you know, the ghost of Sam Darnold came back a little bit.

[Bill Simmons]

I stayed at the craps table too long with Sam Darnold and with the. With the Steelers heading into December, just should have taken my chips, gone with House to get some food, some 2am pizza, and just would have been super happy with it. Hey, House, when he said the Daniel Jones mistake, which I think is a great way to frame it, that's basically been the philosophy of the Washington Wizards for the last 40 years, right? The Dana Jones mistake. This guy showed some hope. Here's a lot of money. Oh, shit. Shouldn't have done that.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Are we. Why is there Wizards violence on this football podcast?

[Bill Simmons]

I didn't know if that resonated he.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Cares about the Wizards.

[Joe House]

I thought maybe it was. I didn't know if Daniel Jones was the guy starting for the Sixers tomorrow night because none of their guys play. So I was a little confused there. I'm glad you took the shot at the Wizards, not the Six Sixers. Thank you.

[Bill Simmons]

Well. Well, you know, indeed. He'll be back eventually when there's not four really tough games in five. When do you play Charlotte and be going to be back for that one circle? It's got Charlotte circled. Is there a Toronto game? Oh, I'll play against Toronto. That's great. All right. More manifesto rules. We're not even done with this game. Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather. Yikes. Rule number eight, beware of any and all aging QBs in cold weather unless they drink half their body weight and water and like 40 things Tom Brady did. Rule number 15, this is working against the Eagle Shield, okay? Make sure the team with a home field advantage actually has a home field advantage. Philly's in that weird zone. The fans, they get fickle really fast. They get upset really fast. There's an ornery vibe in that stadium. Does that. Do you feel that changes this week with the snow and the rain, or does it get worse?

[Joe House]

Yeah, I was in the stands those early 2000s when they had the McNabb teams and they were favorites against the Bucks and the Panthers, and the fan base was so confident going into those games and then you saw what happened. So really it comes down to early in the game, if you have a few three and outs. No, it doesn't change. This is in our DNA. This is what it's going to be like. But I think there's also a possibility that Saquon Barkley has a 35 yard run in the first quarter and all of a sudden the place is going bonkers and they don't actually have to worry about that. But yes, to answer your question, it could go either way if they get off to a slow start.

[Bill Simmons]

It's the only out of the four home games house. It's the only crowd that I feel like you might be able to take out in the first quarter. I don't feel like you're taking out Buffalo. Casey's been there too many times. Detroit's going to be a mad house. I don't feel like that crowd's going to get nervous, but I feel like you can get to the Philly crowd because there's that motto of the Eagles that first quarter, 39 seconds of play. It's just. It just feels clumsy and discombobulated. It's 00 after the first quarter. Don't you think, House? Like there's.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Well, that's a script all season. They're among the bottom teams in the NFL in terms of scoring in the first quarter, so they're not coming out and instilling confidence. They're not coming out and kicking ass. Now, they did score a touchdown within the first three minutes of the first quarter of this most recent game, but that's because of, you know, the, The. The bogus fumble that happened. And that was the only touchdown of the first half. And so, like, if you want to be frustrated with the Eagles getting going, I think, I hope, I don't know. The good people of Philadelphia, having seen Hertz get his. The rust off a little bit with that Green Bay game, they'll be patient and understand the best way for the Eagles to win this football game is to just run the football down the Rams thr and do it, do it and do it. And it may take a little while to get the battering in place. That is their pathway. But Philly doesn't really strike me as a place that has a lot of patience.

[Bill Simmons]

The only thing I didn't believe about everything you just said is when you said the good people of Philadelphia. You don't like Philadelphia.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Who are you kidding? You don't, buddy.

[Bill Simmons]

You don't like Philadelphia.

[Sheil Kapadia]

You don't Philadelphia. Here's the thing.

[Bill Simmons]

Why would you like Philadelphia?

[Sheil Kapadia]

Over the years, I've softened because of two things. There is incredible golf, super underrated golf in the Philadelphia area. I got to play Marion last year. Marvelous. But yes, the food in Philadelphia. Again, crazy underrated. The food in Philadelphia. This we should go do. I did a Philadelphia food tour with Chris Ryan, I know, five or six years ago on the house of Carbs, because. And the scene just keeps getting better and better. So I have my soft spots for Philadelphia.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. So it's basically just all selfish. Food and golf, the two things you care about. That's how to win over Joe House. Chill. You agree with the food food scene?

[Joe House]

Yeah. I want in on all of this. House, next time you come. Marion is about 15 minutes that way. I'm pointing here. And then, you know, obviously house eating. I mean, whether I'm observing or participating, I'm hearing about. Yeah, yeah. Over a decade I've been hearing about the legend.

[Bill Simmons]

So I want participating. And then it turns into observing after at about the 45 minute mark when everyone else is finished and Houses still eating somehow.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Guilty. Guilty as charged.

[Bill Simmons]

Two more rules. Take one last look at the quarterbacks. And remember, there's plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach. This is specifically a Hertz question, so I know is Hertz, what does he command on your tech, on your Eagles text thread? Shield, how much of the conversation is what's up with Hertz? Like 40%, 20%. What is it?

[Joe House]

Yeah, it's probably. It might be over 50% in the conversation has been. Is it hurts or is the coaching terrible? Because you'll be looking at the film and all that and everyone's pointing out no one's open and they're running the same play seven times in a game and it's like, what are they doing? And then you watch some of these other offenses and they're beautiful and guys are getting schemed wide open. So that's the big argument right now, in addition to can this team win the Super Bowl. You know how? Yeah. How? Philadelphia?

[Bill Simmons]

Well, the defense. You have.

[Joe House]

Yeah, the defense is awesome. Everybody's happy with the defense. Everybody's happy with the offensive line. Saquon Barkley might have the highest approval rating of any Philadelphia athlete right now, and he's only been there for a year.

[Bill Simmons]

Competition for that.

[Joe House]

Bryce Harper.

[Bill Simmons]

How about this? Nobody on the Sixers.

[Joe House]

No Maxi, Everybody. Everybody still loves Maxi. So Maxi is on there.

[Bill Simmons]

Whatever.

[Joe House]

Bryce Harper is there. And then. Yeah, but I think Saquon Barkley's only been there for a year. But I said it's the best offensive season for a Philadelphia Eagle since I've been alive. And I think that's true. And so I think, yeah, he's kind of taken over the fan base.

[Bill Simmons]

Is there any explanation for the weird pace of the Eagles offense and the lack of unpredictability and just how there's a sameness to every drive, there's a methodical nature to it. And they never zag, they never keep you on your toes. Why do they do it that way? I just don't understand it. As a football fan.

[Joe House]

I think Sirianni has this, like, Bobby Knight saying in his office. That's like the team that makes the fewer mistakes wins or whatever. Whatever the quote is, that's how they play. Like, if you watch this last game, they are running the ball on every third and long.

[Sheil Kapadia]

They're.

[Joe House]

They're being conservative on fourth down. If Jalen Hurts has an opportunity to throw the ball to A.J. brown and he's not sure this year, he is just tucking the football, throwing it away and running and so everything they do is kind of like, hey, our defense is awesome. Saquon's going to break one eventually. Let's not give the game away. And so I think that's why it.

[Bill Simmons]

Looks like just safe. As few plays as old school, keep the clock moving. Do you agree with that, House?

[Sheil Kapadia]

I kind of do. It does fit the, you know, the personnel that the Eagles have. We did think that, that Kellen Winslow was going to come in as a whiz bang guy and really show, you know, so open up that offense in a way that. Who was the poor guy that got run out of town last year?

[Joe House]

Brian Johnson.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. There was a lot of just bad taste left in the mouth from the Ron Johnson experiment. All of them. All the Johnson.

[Bill Simmons]

Anyone named Johnson?

[Sheil Kapadia]

Johnson in the mouth. That's all I could say.

[Bill Simmons]

Possible new rule. This is not in the manifesto. I'm just going to throw it out here as a possibility. Possible new rule. Beware of any home playoff favorite with a frustrated fan base that might kind of hate the team. Coach and or qb.

[Joe House]

Yeah, I don't think they're there. I think they like the team a lot because.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I'm checking this is all right.

[Joe House]

Yeah, they like the team a lot. It's probably split on Hertz and it's probably split on Sirianni.

[Bill Simmons]

I would say so for the lean, for a million dollar picks. I think House and I, we were talking about it earlier. If I had to bet it straight up, I would take the Eagles and I think the Rams won their game. I think everyone that the biggest manifesto rule is boy or the team that looked too good last week. I think they fit. I like them more on a tease or a parlay though. And I think that's the play with them. And if, you know, if they screw us, they screw us. But I think that's the way to go. You, are you safe with that shield?

[Joe House]

Yeah. I mean this would be, this would go down as one of the darker upsets at home. And now there have been some of those in Phil in recent Philadelphia sports memory. I think they're justifiably six and a half point favorites in this game. I would be. They could lose, but I would, I would be surprised if they lost this game.

[Bill Simmons]

And House, you're on board with that?

[Sheil Kapadia]

Yeah, I mean I think the Eagles are going to win. I don't mind laying the six and a half, but if you want to tease them from six and a half down to a half and just have them win, you know, win outright I'm not going to argue with you.

[Bill Simmons]

Let's do Chiefs, Texans really quick. Chiefs minus eight and a half over the Texans. I still feel like if they call the intentional grounding on Stroud or if that fumble shotgun that goes over his head bounces to the left and the chargers are up 13 nothing, that game's probably over. It was like it gave Stroud the superpower. I wasn't really impressed with either of those teams. Meanwhile, you got Casey three wins from a three peat. Andy Reid could have 29 playoff wins by mid February. Mahomes could be 18 and three in the playoffs by mid February. They're plus 350 for the super bowl, which seems high because I clearly think they're going to win this game. And now you're just. You basically have plus 350 for two games. The one that jumped out to me though, this was in the Bundles column about how KC has failed to cover every seven plus spread this season. Yeah, 07. Even though they won all of those games. Shield so this looks like the classic just put them in a tease parlay because this is just what they do. They win by seven, they win by four, they win by three. And yet I like how the Chiefs look lately. This is the best version of them we've seen this year. Could this be a little bit of a breakout party for them? Where you. Where are you leaning?

[Joe House]

Yeah, DeBundo scared me with that one too in his column, but I feel the same way. I feel like the Chiefs have a lot of things going for them in this game. Like the way they want to play is get the ball out quickly, methodical drives downfield, and that's the way you want to play against a team that has a great pass rush with the Houston Texans. So this isn't going to be like a new thing for them where they got to play left handed or whatever. That's how they want to play. And to your point, that's how they were playing down the stretch of the season where it was just long methodical drives. The ball's not hitting the ground. Mahomes short completions go down the field. So I like them offensively there and then defensively. C.J. shroud is 29th against the blitz this year. When you look at all the efficiency numbers, I like to look at Chief Split at the fifth highest rate in the NFL. So I'm with you. I didn't watch that Texans game last week. I wasn't like, wow, I feel differently about their offense. This was the worst offense of any team that made the playoffs by dvoa and so I think they're going to have issues offensively. I think there's a chance they could ugly up the game a little bit with their defense and their pass rush. But I like the Chiefs, but I think you're right. If it is a slow game, maybe maybe bump the Chiefs down and do do a teaser.

[Bill Simmons]

So Chiefs 8th run, 8th against the run. 4th QB hits 6 QB hurries, 11th tackles behind the line of scrimmage. House, there's a, there's a random non nerd sports hack talk case with Mahomes where it's been Lamar and Josh for three, four weeks here and Mahomes is kind of shoved to the side. He's like old guy Mahomes even though he was like 27, 28, it's like oh yeah, and Patrick Mahomes. But the all the hype with this Lamar versus Josh and everyone talking about them the whole year and the Ravens and they're the best team and it's just fucking fuel for that. We, everything we know about Mahomes, this is absolute fuel for this dude. And I wonder if this is. He pulls it out this week House, I don't know. And he does the lasso and he's like this is the first game of the weekend. Hey, by the way, I'm Patrick Mahomes and he just does 17 Mahomes things and reminds us how great he is.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Well, part of what is going to facilitate that is the health, the restored health for Kansas City really on both sides of the ball, but definitely on offense. All of their weapons will be available. One of my very favorite Bets on the FanDuel Sportsbook is Patrick Mahomes over one and a half passing touchdowns. It was like minus 144. I have no issue whatsoever with laying it and I'll probably parlay that with Kansas City to win outright. That's fine. I love the narrative aspect of this that you're describing. Bs which is we're going into a weekend where everybody is absolutely appropriately fantasizing about what's going to come between Josh Allen and, and, and, and Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes in the first game of the weekend is like, y'all, I'm still here. I'm right here.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm right here for a three peat, guys. Hey, I'm right, I'm right here. Yeah, winner still has to go through me. I just, I think those certain guys are like, Brady was always wired like this and he's talked about it pretty openly like these Guys take everything personally. They take every slate, they notice everything. They pretend they don't, but they do. Shield, is this add up to you at all? This could be an FU performance from Mahomes.

[Joe House]

Yeah, absolutely. It could be an FU playoff run. I mean they are well positioned, they are monster favorites at home and then they're going to get to face whichever team lost that Ravens Bills battle and then they. Yeah and then they're potentially in the Super Bowl. So absolutely from the narrative stand not getting mentioned with you know, all pro mvp, all those conversations that happen this time of year and all they are are the one seed in the AFC going for a three peat.

[Bill Simmons]

So one bet. And this is something we saw last week with the quarterbacks that you don't want them to run during the first 18 weeks of the season but when we get to the playoffs you start using your legs more and this has been house, we've cashed in on this with Mahomes so many times like he's, it's basically even odds, 25 plus yards this week against Houston. We know he does this in the playoffs. In the playoffs he starts moving around more, taking more chances, using his legs. So you know I thought last week I was mad that I didn't think of that with, with Lamar it was so obvious that of of course they were going to do that. Of course he was going to use his legs like that. With the Texans their D line's really good. That's the one like their ends can, can put some pressure on. And I, the Chiefs tackles make me nervous and as I play the game out on my head shield, that's the one thing I keep coming back to is like let's say this is just one of those weird, classic, ugly first half chief playoff games. They're putting pressure on Mahomes. They get the one long Nico Collins pass. Chiefs guy fumbles a punt and all of a sudden it's like 107 Texans at halftime. We're like the hell's going on? My tease is in danger. What's happening? I don't see another scenario other than that. Is there anything else we're not thinking of?

[Joe House]

No, that's the biggest thing. Their pressure against those tackles is 1, 2 is the Chiefs are 30th in explosive plays. The only teams that create explosive plays at a, at a lower rate than them have been the Raiders and the Browns. So they are going to have to work at it. And if you kind of shrink the game and all of a sudden you have a weird fumble or a Weird penalty and ugly it up that way, then maybe the Texans have an opportunity here. The other thing is if you still believe in CJ Stroud and feel like the season has. I still like him. I don't like him here in this spot. Like if you ask me if we're doing a pot in August and how do I think he's going to. I think he's going to bounce back next year. I don't think he has it this year. But if you think he does have it this year and he comes in and has him and Nico Collins combined for like you said, 160 yards, maybe that keeps him in it. I don't see it. With their offensive scheme, their offensive line, I think he's going to have a tough day.

[Bill Simmons]

He's an unusual quarterback because during the same game it can feel like he lost his confidence and then he completely gained it back and is like has swagger and it's all happening over the course of three hours and you saw it happen last week. The playoff manifestos for this one. This is a big one. Rule number six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. And this has been something that's been really helpful over the years. And if, look, if you bet, if you pick KC minus eight and a half and they don't cover the odds of threading that needle between the higher number and them winning like you know, we call it, I, I'm just. I just want to pick winners and not worry about the Lions. So maybe a little bit less on that. But I don't think Houston has a chance to win. I don't think they're good enough. So that's one. Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather. Boom Texans. There's a Beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 giants rule. I just want to. I don't think the Texans remind me of the 2007 Giants, but I just wanted to talk it out. There's a couple similarities. Right. Mix and running the ball kind of a younger, erratic up and down quarterback like Eli in 2007. A good pass rush, a really good coach. There's elements but I'm not willing to go there. She'll you agree?

[Joe House]

I don't think so. Yeah, that. That would shock me.

[Bill Simmons]

House.

[Sheil Kapadia]

The mix in thing especially is. Is. Is a stretch like he. He only runs well against teams that. That are, you know, that permit it and the game script like he had 60 of his 100 yards on the last drive. Of the game. The. Where Houston really closed out that game. Otherwise, his. He had a, like a very average day. And that's really been the story of Joe Mixon this entire season. Like, they came out with an offense that looks super formidable. When everybody was healthy, I thought, oh, this is the version of Houston that's going to win this division and maybe win 12 games or something and really be a threat. And then they had the injuries and their offensive line never was up to the task. And that's the problem with mixing. They're just not. You can't establish the run with, with. With the offensive line that they have. And they ain't establishing the run against the Chiefs, I'll tell you that much right now.

[Bill Simmons]

Rule number 16 is take one last look at the quarterbacks. It's Mahomes versus Stroud. Mahomes has lost three times. He lost the D. Ford game to Brady his first year as a starter. Where if Dee Ford doesn't say, it's one of the great breaks in the history of Boston sports. D. Ford jumping offsides. You have that. You have him get his ass kicked by the. By Tampa in the super bowl where, you know, there's real reasons for that. Tampa's defense was great. They were able to pressure him the whole game. It was a. It was a little bit of a goofy Casey season. So that was the second one and the third one was the game house. And I lost incredible amounts of money on when the Bengals beat the Chiefs, where Mahomes got concussed at the end of the second quarter and they pretended he wasn't. But something happened and he was never the same the rest of the game. My point is, it's very unusual for Patrick Mahomes to lose in the playoffs, and I feel pretty safe about putting money on him against the Houston Texans guys.

[Joe House]

Yeah, agreed.

[Sheil Kapadia]

I think we're unanimous.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, great. We're going to take a break and hit the other two games. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. From first whistle to final drive, FanDuel takes the NFL playoffs to the next level. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get 300 bucks in bonus bets. If you win, that's $300 in bonus bets. If you win your first $5 bet, the Fando app gives you everything you need for live bets, same game parlays, so much more. Plus, when you win, you'll get paid instantly. We're ripping through Million dollar picks at the end of this podcast. I like round two. We have some good props as well, so stay tuned for that. Visit FanDuel.com BS to join today. Get started with $300 of bonus bets again, FanDuel.com BS you can go check out the Ringer specials as well on the NFL page. Make this playoff season unforgettable with FanDuel and official sportsbook partner. The NFL must be 21 plus in President select states or 18 plus in President DC. First online real money wager only $5 first deposit required bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt restrictions by seat terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com gamma problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com this episode is brought to you by LinkedIn. In basketball, a blockbuster trade can make or break your playoff run. Before the deadline, GMs across the league scour for the right data and insights, hoping their moves pay off. February 6th trade deadline here. By the way, just like in basketball, growing your small business in 2025 all comes down to how well you can build your team. That starts with better insights from LinkedIn with unique skills and interests to the connections you have in common. LinkedIn has the strongest hiring data and insights to help you identify the right professionals so you can make the best hiring decisions. LinkedIn pairs you with the high quality candidates you need to make your business grow and flourish. LinkedIn also lets you go beyond candidates who are actively applying in a given week. 171 million LinkedIn members aren't actively seeking jobs, but they are open to new opportunities. Who isn't? That's a big pool of people you don't want to miss out on. And who knows, one of them could be your next All Star player. So hire smarter in the new year. Find your next Great hire on LinkedIn. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com Simmons Once again, LinkedIn.com Simmons to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. All right, our third game, the Lions against the Washington Seawards. The beloved team of Joe House. So here are the rookie quarterbacks that have made the conference title game House the true rookies Brock Purdy, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Sean King Daniels is the most talented of all of those guys. His team needs him the most out of all of those guys. And I'm just pointing that out because it's so Brady first year as a starter made the Super Bowl. Mahomes first year as a starter almost made the Super Bowl. So if you think he's on that class, maybe That's a better comparison. Does Daniels have it in him to win two playoff games and drag this team to the conference title game?

[Sheil Kapadia]

Are you asking me that question?

[Bill Simmons]

I am.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Hell no. And it's not, it doesn't have anything to do with Jaden Daniels. He doesn't get to play defense. I mean the problem is in that the offense, they will have a great game plan and they will do their best to shrink the game. They will try and have long drives. They'll try and have, they'll, they'll try and replicate what they did against Tampa in that game. Both teams had exactly seven possessions. That's the best way for Washington to have a chance. They go, they, they, they. Every possession is a four down possession. There's no such thing as three downs and punt with Washington unless you know they're.

[Bill Simmons]

That's like 4th and 9 or something. Yeah.

[Sheil Kapadia]

And on the very much on the wrong side of the field. That's exactly right. But, but Jaden Daniels can't control the defense and the defense, God bless them, it's been Ben, don't break. All season long they've put that offense in position to go win six consecutive last possession games. The last possession of the game for Washington they've won. That is, it's an absolute miracle. And Jaden Daniels is, has been a tremendous like you the hyperbole for, for his performance. You know I, I can't overstate how much he's done to transform this franchise. But he doesn't play defense so it's not, it's not up to him.

[Bill Simmons]

So everything House late just laid out shield. This is why I, I'm not betting it because I always lose on over unders. But the over under seems so high to me. It's 55 and a half. The Lions I think are 33 and a half the over under for their total points on FanDuel. And I agree with House. I think Washington's going to try to have these long ass drives and try to keep it to seven possessions on each side and that's it. Why does everybody think this is going to be a shootout?

[Joe House]

Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with House. House nailed it. Like an average NFL game. You get 11 possessions in a game. And so everything about this commander's game plan has to be lean into the variance like House was saying. If it's only seven possessions and now Jared Goff has a pass deflected at the line of scrimmage. Somebody comes down, fumbles. Exactly. And that's how the commanders Want to play methodical long drives, run the football, complete passes at a very high rate, so they've got that in them. And then the same thing about the fourth down stuff, like if they're in the red zone, if they're on the, you know, past midfield, they need to be aggressive. A fake punt here and there. Like when you're an underdog of this magnitude and you're facing an offense and such a mismatch with the Lions offense against your defense, I think that's how you have to play. So I don't. I would not go against Jaden Daniels in a big spot. I mean, I don't know that there's another quarterback in the NFC that you say, hey, if you take the Lions here minus eight and a half and it's whatever, a three point game, a five point game in the fourth quarter and the commanders have fourth and six. Like I want to be on the Jaden Daniels side on that because he's come through, you know, over and over and over again. And there's a couple schematic things here. I mean, we know how the Lions play man coverage and they want to blitz. Jaden Daniels very good against man coverage because he can use his legs and he has killed the blitz this year. Like all those rookie quarterbacks you named as you were reeling them off, I'm like, that guy had a great team. That guy had a great team that got like, Jaden Daniels doesn't have a great team. He's putting the team on his back. And yeah, so I took the commanders with the points just when I pick every game. So I don't like being on the other side of that guy.

[Bill Simmons]

Also in a dome against a not that good defense, it doesn't seem like the crowd's going to bother him because it doesn't seem like anything bothers him. And the amazing thing is how much they fucking trust him. House. Like some of the, some of the things they were asking to do in the second half, it was like he's like 32 years old. That, that little lob screen pass, that was one of the key plays of the game. That's a. I mean, nine things can go wrong in that play. But they trusted him. And it just seems like over and over again he has the wherewithal to know what to do in the right spots. He's really exciting. I think the line's too high. I'm not going to put like a ton of money on Washington or anything, but I was looking at the outline of Washington + 4 1/2 as + 182 on FanDuel. I think this could be a close game. It reminds me of some of the games last year when we had, you know, Green Bay as a, as a big underdog. We had Tampa as a big underdog with the Rams or an underdog at one point. Like I think they can score and I think even if they're down 14 plus, they can make, you know, get a cheap touchdown down the stretch. I just thought, I think the line's too high.

[Sheil Kapadia]

So that, that's the case. Right? Nine and a half is a big number when you have a quarterback on the other side like Jaden Daniels. And Washington will play this entire game all the way out. Right? There's no, they're not going to do an el foldo here. And so even if The Detroit's up 17 points with six minutes left and Washington gets the ball and goes down, they'll, they could score a touchdown and get a two point conversion and you lose your bet because they take it from 17 down to nine and you've lost the nine and a half point cover. It's a great tease candidate. I mean the, the, the thing with Detroit that I really believe is going to be the, the big swing here is they're going to establish the run. If David Montgomery is back and is, you know, in full force, they're going to establish the run and just run the football down Washington's throat. And it, they might get explosive with it like they might. Because if Jameer gets, gets outside, he gets going, it just could be a couple quick scores.

[Bill Simmons]

That's my fear. Like you just. I always write down all the different stats and see how the teams match up in the offense. First defense and you just see that Washington defense 30th against the run. Detroit six with the run. And that was without Montgomery the last couple of weeks. And there the fear would be Detroit just rushing, you know, 49 carries for 270 yards. One of those games. Manifesto rules. Beware of the Nobody believes in U.S. team is Washington or nobody believes in U.S. team house. Because it seems like there's belief.

[Sheil Kapadia]

I think there's belief. I mean certainly here in Washington. And I think, you know, Jane Daniels, this is part of the joy of being a Washington fan. He's captured the national imagination because of how of his stones. He has the biggest balls of, of any athlete in Washington that I can think of. I mean, OVI came in with big balls, but then Sidney Crosby kicked his ass for a while. OVI finally sort of got The Stanley Cup. He's threatening the great ones record.

[Bill Simmons]

And Bradley Beal. Bradley Beal was the other one. That is.

[Sheil Kapadia]

God damn it. Let's just, let's, let's move on.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, you're talking about Washington stars with huge balls who came through in big moments. That was the other guy that jumped to mind for me. You got a bunch of pick swaps for him.

[Sheil Kapadia]

You're a dick.

[Bill Simmons]

Two more manifesto rules. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. I don't necessarily think Washington's going to win, but I also don't really believe in that Detroit defense either. And part of the calculus when you think about we're back in on Detroit partly because their defense looks so good against Minnesota and then the rams, who were 26. DVOA also looked awesome against Minnesota and some shield. Where do we stand on the Detroit defense right now for what we know, guys coming back, all that stuff?

[Joe House]

Yeah, I mean you look at the stats and stuff and they're what, top five in D V O A? And they got some guys back and they, they hung in there and they had a great game plan against the Vikings. But I'm sort of with you. I want to see a little bit more. When we saw the Rams do that to the Vikings, I had the same thought like, all right, let me rethink what I think about that Lions defense. So I don't know. I think the Lions, I picked them to win the super bowl before the postseason began. I still think they're going to win this game. But if you told me, hey, which of these big dogs is going to actually win this weekend, Commanders, Rams or Texans? I'm riding with Jaden Daniels. Out of those three, I think I agree with that.

[Bill Simmons]

House.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm not just saying that because you're here.

[Sheil Kapadia]

I love it. No, I love it. And the case that's the best case, right, is that Jaden Daniels in Washington controlling the ball and offense. They play defense by playing great, efficient offense and that's their best opportunity.

[Bill Simmons]

House, is it possible for you to talk about the resurgence of Washington football over the last 12 months without breaking into tears?

[Sheil Kapadia]

I mean, it's tears. We're. We're beyond tears. Like this is it. The. What it's done to. For, for my libido, for my love life. It's just been unbelievable.

[Bill Simmons]

It's like a Viagra.

[Sheil Kapadia]

It's better than that. I tell you what, it's better than that.

[Bill Simmons]

It's so Washington ultimately is a football town and this Brought it back after Dan Snider basically injected medicine into everybody's bodies to put them into a medical coma the entire time he was an owner.

[Sheil Kapadia]

It was worse than that. And Danny Heifetz of the Ringer, a great story on the ringer.com about the return of Washington as a place where good football can happen. We have this Legacy, this unbelievable 20 years of success that a bad owner came in and ruined. He ruined it for three generations. Almost like there are people in my life who are like, this is our first playoff win. You know, there are, there are young folks here who never saw any of the old glory days with Joe Gibbs and you know, the high flying Washington attack. And it's just, you know, this city.

[Bill Simmons]

Now you guys are back.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Football city. It's back. It's back. Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Shield. When I met House in 1988 and we, we went to college together, you were a year ahead of me. But 88, 90, 88, 89, 90, 91. And Washington was like, they were probably the team. They were the most. There was a bunch of successful teams in the 80s, but they were the most consistently successful over like a 12 year span, all the way through the Ripon Super Bowl. And that's how I knew you as this confident football fan. And then I gradually watched it get beaten out of you.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Well, it coincided with the Patriots getting good and Tom Brady. Think about how bad that was for me.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, we both, we both sucked in the 90s and then it went back. But is it, Sheila, is it weird for you that Washington has hope again? Because you've probably kind of given up on them as an Eagles fan.

[Joe House]

Yeah, when, when I was first following the Eagles, it was those teams you're, you're mentioning and they were better than the Eagles. And there has been this long run. I mean, the Giants have been one of the worst teams in the NFL the last decade. The commanders have been hopeless. Now it's flipping a little bit. I will say, you know, this is a lot of love there for Josh Harris. I mean, if Josh Harris wants to buy the Wizards and give up the Sixers and just be a full time DC guy, I think that would be okay with the franchise trade.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Yeah, Philly hates Josh Harris. The Sixers, they, they, he, they are so out on him as the Sixers owner. I hear it all the time from my Philly people.

[Bill Simmons]

It's funny that you could be good at owning one team and then bad at owning the other team.

[Joe House]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

But it's basically like you would think it was something in the Same skill set. All right, so we're going to lean toward. So Lions and a parlay or tease. We're all good with that. And then maybe a little hedge. Washington bet like a little tiny one House.

[Sheil Kapadia]

You can do it. I'm not participating. You do it, you do it, you do it.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. The big Kahuna, Ravens, Bills, which flipped. It was Bills minus one and a half and now it's Ravens minus one half. As predicted on this podcast with Sal on Sunday. There's so many ways to go with this and a couple people have brought up versions of this, but I feel like I've been alive long enough that I've seen a lot of these people would throw in the great QB matchups and they just grab two people who are really good. To me, it's different than a great QB matchup. It's a point of the career QB matchup, which I think is completely different and a lot more special. Right. So I wrote down like when we were in college, Montana and Elway played in the super bowl. And it was really meaningful. Elway felt like this one man band. Montana had a chance to be like the greatest ever and it was like, who's winning this? So just that moment felt important. Elway, Favre was really fun. Elway had already won. Favre was kind of the next Elway. Elway's trying to go back to back. Favre's like the next guy. That was like a QB moment. 06, some people would say 03, 04. But Brady wasn't Brady really until 06. I don't personally think 06. He had nobody. The Colts were the team. He goes in there in Indianapolis, it's Brady versus Manning. Manning's never beaten him in a big game. Manning comes back from 18. That was awesome. Brady versus Russell Wilson. Would you put that in there for where we were with Russell Wilson in 2014 in the Super Bowl. Already winning a Super bowl felt like he was heading toward Rogers. Is he not quite good enough Shield.

[Joe House]

I think not quite good enough. That was still the defense. I feel like with the identity of that team.

[Bill Simmons]

House, you agree?

[Sheil Kapadia]

Totally agree with that.

[Bill Simmons]

We'll cross off them. 2018, Brady versus Mahomes in KC AFC title game. And then same thing, 2020 when Brady was on the Bucs. That was the last time that Brady Mahomes was like the old. The old Wizen champion versus the new upstart. This Lamar Josh battle is so unusual because neither guy has won and they're at this awesome point in their career. Even like I mentioned 06.98 Montana Elway, like one side had won this one. Neither guy has won. And it's. They're competing against each other for the right to now have to then beat Patrick Mahomes. It's a really unusual game. Shield, can you remember any matchup quite like this in football? We've seen it in basketball, but not in football.

[Joe House]

No. This is because of the legacies, and they're both still young in their career. So I still think, like, there's going to be a lot of narratives that come out of whichever quarterback loses. And I'm probably going to be the nerd being like, relax like that. You know that guy. Yeah, they're going to get there eventually. But it's been the same conversation around both these guys. Really, to a large degree. They're both among the top two or three MVP candidates. Pretty much every year you have them on your team. They get offensive coordinators paid, they get other players paid. It's like they. They are the star of the show and you can.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, and they're one of ones, too. There's.

[Joe House]

There's nobody like either guy. Yeah, exactly. So you have that as well. And so it's just a matter of time before one of them breaks through. I'm not saying either of them is ever going to be there with Mahomes, but I think each of them is going to have their year. And who's it going to be this year? And who has the better supporting cast and who has the better chance? Like, it all comes down to this matchup and how they play in this game.

[Bill Simmons]

House, I know how you feel about this game. This just seems like a terrible matchup for Buffalo. I just don't like the matchup. It's like a basketball team that's just going against an awesome center and doesn't have enough size to defend the center.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

It's. It's like those three Shaq years in the Lakers where they would just play whoever they play. The Sixers, the Nets, there was. And you just felt like, man, they just. They're the size. I just think Baltimore has too much size for this Buffalo defense. I don't see a world where that Buffalo defense can win the game, which means Allen just has to be perfect and has to have one of the great moments of his career, I think, to beat them. You. You agree on the this seems stacked for Baltimore angle, right?

[Sheil Kapadia]

That. That's definitely my point of view. I mean, the. The aspect of it that is so curious and what we'll see in this upcoming off season, I wonder aloud is it looks like a Baltimore had has a defense that is well constructed to compete against Kansas City. I don't think that they could have anticipated what impact Derrick Henry would have on Baltimore and they don't have a defense that is. They just not big enough. They're. They're.

[Bill Simmons]

You're talking about Buffalo's defense. Yeah, Buffalo bomb. Sorry.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Buffalo's front seven is just too light. They just can't. They can put everybody in the box and that is a terrible predicament to put yourself into because Lamar really does have a next level of confidence. The way that they ran their offense against Pittsburgh last week, they just ran this, this option play. Yeah, it was like a pick and roll in the. And, and Pittsburgh had one kind of solution for it. But this, the, the, just the, the confidence that Lamar demonstrated in his ability to make the right choice and just do it and he, he didn't break a sweat. He just was like this is the way. And I just think the way that, that Baltimore will get off with Derrick Henry, we're going to, he's going to establish now. I don't think he's going to run have a 90 yard touchdown in the first touch like, like he did when these teams played in the regular season. But I do think they're going to establish him and I do think he's going to get his yards and it's going to come early and then that Baltimore offense opens up and it's just a tough. I mean I'm rooting for a tremendous game so I want to see the very best out of, out of Josh. But I just.

[Bill Simmons]

You're a lover of football.

[Sheil Kapadia]

The field is tilted in my, in my humble estimation, Shield.

[Bill Simmons]

I watch Hard Knocks because they're doing the AFC north. So I actually watched this week's episode and they had a lot of like behind the scenes stuff of before the game and during the game and Lamar is just so fucking confident in all the stuff they capture. Like confident in a way that I just don't remember seeing in the previous things. I think they all know something. They have something special with this combo with the Lamar and Henry that it's just unusual. It's different, it stands out, it's hard to stop and they have a swagger to it. You could just kind of see it. And, and what was really interesting about it, they had Cam Hayward miked and near the end of the first half when the, when the Ravens got that last touchdown and the Steelers are on the field and he's like, we gotta try to strip the ball. Like I'm. I'm dead. Like I. Like they're wearing us down. We gotta like force a turnover. Because he knows. He was like, they were like killing them. And I just don't see why that wouldn't also happen to Buffalo's defense. So is there.

[Sheil Kapadia]

What.

[Bill Simmons]

What world does. Does Buffalo win this game?

[Joe House]

All right, let me make the case for the fine people of Western New York. Josh Allen. Yeah, I mean, their narrative.

[Sheil Kapadia]

What?

[Joe House]

Josh Allen. This was supposed to be a reset year. They get rid of Stefan Diggs. Oh, what?

[Sheil Kapadia]

No.

[Joe House]

One People are. People like me are picking the jets to win the AFC East. All the guy does like me, too. New cast of characters on his back every week. They win that division going away. And now he gets to the playoffs and he's an underdog at home. He's healthy. He's one of the best quarterbacks we've seen in the last decade, and his team is an underdog. And everyone's pointing to that Week 4 matchup. And the Bills did not have either starting linebacker in that game. They did not have Taryn Johnson, their nickel corner, who might be one of their best players on defense. All those guys are back here. And by the way, people are forgetting that the Ravens probably are not going to have their leading wide receiver in this game. Zay Flowers did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. So you're looking at two evenly matched teams. One that is healthier, the other that is without its starting wide receiver.

[Bill Simmons]

You don't have to be perfect.

[Joe House]

You don't have to be perfect on defense.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, right.

[Joe House]

Derek Henry is going to get yards. Lamar Jackson is going to get yards. Can the Bills match them possession for possession? And can you get that one key turnover, that one key play on special team? So I see.

[Bill Simmons]

And home field advantage home.

[Joe House]

Yeah, I see the path for Ravens blowout. You guys are right. House made the great point that the Bills are small up front. And now you have the one team that you do not want to be small up front against. And the Ravens could run for over 200. But I'm not counting up the. I was basically going to take whichever team was the dog here and just say, I'm going with that. So I was just flipping a coin back and forth, changing my mind all week. But Josh Allen as a home dog, like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, when these guys are home dogs, I'm just like, take them if you lose. I'll live with it.

[Bill Simmons]

Two playoff manifesto rules. Rule number Nine, severely discount anything that happened in the first five to week six weeks of the season.

[Joe House]

That's a good one.

[Bill Simmons]

That's a good one. I, I, when we go back to week four, week five, like, guys are out, like, it's just stupid. I, I always discount that. Rule number 16, take one last look at the quarterbacks. Here's the difference. This isn't just Allen versus Lamar. It's Allen versus Lamar and Henry. Yeah, I like James Cook. He's good. The Henry thing is different and especially if they have a lead in the way, they can keep it. I also feel like Baltimore's defense is just awesome against the run. And we saw it again, like for Pittsburgh, it was just the all time worst case scenario matchup. So for Allen, I think to beat them, he's going to have to do stuff with his legs. He's going to have to use his different receivers. It's going to be a lot of like moving the ball, 10, 11, 12 play drives. I just think Baltimore is the best team, guys. Now we've been in the spot heading into round two and usually it doesn't work out with whoever we think that team is. Yeah, I think they're really good. I'm, I, and I'm always like a little slow. The catch is the playoff Lamar piece. And, and what's interesting about this matchup is the stakes for both guys. If one of them really fails in this spot, it's a, it's, it's, we talk about legacy a lot in sports, but like Lamar kind of needs this game. Like if he loses this one now with the better team, then I, then I think it opens up a conversation where, cool, you're the regular season guy, but every year in January we see the same thing happen. You know, what are you doing wrong? Is it when you talk about playoffs with quarterback shield, is that fair to hang the losses on them like we do? Semi fair, A little bit fair. Where do you stand?

[Joe House]

This is where I feel like we swung too far in like the modern be fair to everyone type of sports analysis. Like when I was a kid, I remember watching like a local Philly sports show and they took a pumpkin and like Michael Jordan hadn't been Michael Jordan yet. And they took a bat and smashed this pumpkin and was like, michael Jordan hasn't done anything. He's selfish. And I'm like, all right, that was crazy. But also now we're like, you can't, like this past week, oh, you can't criticize Justin Herbert or Sam Darnold or Jordan Love. It's their offensive line. It's like, all right, that you can tell me a guy had a great regular season. You can show me the film from week 12 when the stakes are at their highest. How do they perform? And I agree that it always. It hasn't been all on Lamar Jackson last year, Zay Flowers fumbles. Like we should point that stuff out. But also when a quarterback doesn't play well in a big spot and they're in a certain year and it's not their first or second year in the NFL, I think it is. It is fair to criticize them. So yeah, if these guys go up and down the field and they both play awesome and one of them loses, then no, I'm not going to be like, that guy can't win. But if one of them comes out and lays an egg and turns the ball over more than they do in the regular season and their team loses, then we're allowed to. It's okay. We don't have to be like overly fair to some of these. Some of these guys.

[Bill Simmons]

I agree. I thought Justin Herbert was reprehensible last week and it was. I don't feel like I criticized them enough.

[Sheil Kapadia]

He sucked and Jordan Love sucked and him Darnold sucked. They all sucked and looked at the quarterbacks they want. C.J. stroud was excellent.

[Bill Simmons]

An hour and a half.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Yeah. Well enough to win the football game. Matthew Stafford was excellent. We're allowed to say that we're going.

[Bill Simmons]

To take a break and come back and do Million Dollar Shield. You're going to stay on. We'll do million dollar picks for round two. All right, million dollar picks, round two. I'm going to throw out some possible bets. Ravens minus one and a half. We talked about S.H.I.E.L.D. sounds like he's you. Just like the dog. You don't feel like you're. You're just afraid of the game. It seems like I took the Bills.

[Joe House]

In my official picks, but it was a coin flip. So. Yeah, don't let my opinion there change what you guys.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm sticking with my Malcolm Gladwell blink test on that one. I just, I felt before I even knew what the line was, I was like, I just like the Ravens. I think it's a bad matchup for the Bills. If the Bills are playing the Chiefs, I'd feel better about it. I just don't like the Ravens Bills. So we're probably going to put something on. Ravens minus one half. There's a couple parlay teaser options with Chiefs, Eagles, Lions on FanDuel. We do a little eight point tees, even odds. Oh, we could take the Eagles all the way to plus one and a half. I know, I know it infuriates Raheem to but it's actually better odds than the Moneyline parlay to do the eight point tees and to bring everything down. There's a seven point tease that's plus one 20 and there's a six point tease that's plus 140. So you would have Baltimore. I'm not sorry, Casey. Minus two and a half. The Eagles minus two and a half. Oh no, the Eagles even. Lions minus two and a half. So my, my instinct is the eight point tees and you just have to win the Chiefs, you just have to win the Lions and then you get the free point and a half in the Eagles game and that's even odds. And who's going to fuck us is my instinct. Any alarms for either of you?

[Joe House]

I feel like if you lose that you get to watch a Jaden Daniels classic playoff game. I think other than that you're safe. So it'll be worth it.

[Bill Simmons]

I think that Lions 33 and a half is too high, but I don't want to bet it because I could also see a world where they score like 50 points, but I just think it's too high. I think they're trying to sucker you into. It's a lot of points, especially with how we laid out the game. I like the Mahomes 25 plus rushing yards. Bet that's one 15 yard scramble. When he does the thing where he sticks the ball out at the end and then gets a cheap shot and tries to pretend he got knocked unconscious for a second to try to get the flag. And two more scrambles, it's like a 4 for 27 shield. Does that make sense to you?

[Joe House]

I think so, yeah. And the Texans like to play man covers. They've got good corner, so there could be some plays in there where he has to hold onto the football, make a play and he takes off.

[Sheil Kapadia]

So here's my concern and I'm going to make a recommendation. You can't parlay this, but I prefer attempts to yards when it comes to Mahomes because kneel downs count as attempts and kneel downs behind the line of scrimmage detract from your, your rushing total. So if he's in the low 30s and they are running out the football at the end of the game and he kneels down twice, you're all of a sudden in the, in the, you know, real danger. Zone of getting down to like 24 yards and you lose your bet. The total for rush attempts is four and a half, three rushes over the course of the game and then two kneel downs. You collect on your bet. Yeah that's one that I like.

[Joe House]

That's a better right there. I feel like I need to take notes. I'm in awe. Like that is a man who has been burned by a kneel down at some point in the last 10, 20, 30 years shield.

[Bill Simmons]

Which one do you like more? The 4.5 runs or the 25 plus.

[Joe House]

Yards house sold me on the Neil coming.

[Sheil Kapadia]

You can do both.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah no I'm doing parliam but that's plus 110 on FanDuel. I'm going to mark that one down so Kelsey and Hopkins to both score touchdowns plus 931 mentioning it Hopkins to score plus 310 I it's been interesting watching them integrate him into their offense and it seems like they really like him inside the 10 or usually it's Kelsey and it seems that they like him too. I've always had bad luck with the TD bets but I mentioned that Stafford and Stroud to both throw a pick so two road QBs against good defenses both throw a pick plus 195.

[Sheil Kapadia]

I'm in. I love that one. I think it's. It's. I like the the 2 to 1 odds. Stroud is like crazy. It's like minus 160 for him to throw a pick. It's some crazy number. So you're. This is really a Stafford bet and I don't. What's the. What's the status of Higby? I mean is. Is he. Is he.

[Joe House]

I think he's supposed to play but we don't know.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Yeah that. That. That's a big.

[Bill Simmons]

She'll seem lukewarm on the. On the double pick that 195.

[Joe House]

Listen, it's fun. My only concern would be if it's snowy are they going with a run heavy game plan and then the Eagles are having one of those drives where it's like the Eagles have possessed the ball for 11 minutes in the set so he doesn't have the opportunities to throw the pick. Great point but listen it's a little. You don't have to put. I'm not going to say no to any bet like that.

[Bill Simmons]

Henry and BARKLEY Both score touchdowns plus 134 on Sunday. The little Sunday running back stud touchdown parlay Henry with hertz bumps to plus 175 tush pushy something five yard scramble hurts. TD plus 175 play both. Josh Allen touchdown is plus 105. The other one jump out.

[Joe House]

Well, I do the. The other. When you were talking about the running backs, I like Saquon and Derrick Henry. Longest rush. Derrick Henry's is like 20.5. Saquon Barkley's is 18 and a half yards. I think both of those guys are going to get the ball a lot and break one of them throughout the course of the game. So that's just. If you're worried about getting cheated like you said on a touchdown where Saquon Barkley runs it to the one and then they give it to Jalen Hurts. That's one I would look at. I like the Barkley one specifically over 18 and a half yards as his longest rush. So pairing that with something with Henry could make sense.

[Bill Simmons]

What are the odds on that longest rush? Do you remember?

[Joe House]

I'm looking right now. I think it's around minus 110 probably.

[Bill Simmons]

House, have you ever experimented with the longest rush? I feel like I'm doing an exotic tequila shot.

[Sheil Kapadia]

That's really exciting.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, Barkley's -120 for Barkley 19 and up. And then for Henry it's probably. I'm going to guess the same. That will be 20 and a half minus 120. So you try to hit both of them, probably split one, maybe lose a little veg or hit both. What do you think House Parliam just put them together.

[Sheil Kapadia]

I agree with the idea that both of them are going to get them. That both of those teams are committed in a way that, that, you know, the future of the franchise is based on those two dudes going out and getting rushes. They're going to get all the touches, they're going to have all the opportunity and if we believe in those offensive lines, then they're going to get there.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, it's a plus 236. So need Henry for 21 yards, Barkley for 19.

[Joe House]

That's happening. Come on, put it in before they change the.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Put it on the card. The shield special. Put it on the card.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, so we're going to add that one plus two 36 and then there's some most rushing yards that I thought were interesting. Henry plus 320. Barkley plus 155. The Barkley plus 155 I thought was a little delectable. Gibbs plus 550. But Montgomery's probably going to be back, so I don't know how many carries he's going to get. But the rushing receiving one I really liked was McLaren +850 for most yard. Most receiving yards this weekend.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Hmm.

[Bill Simmons]

Some garbage time stuff. One long one. House seems dubious.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Well, I kind of like it. I don't know how deep they're going to try and go. It would have to be what receiver would be, that kind of thing. But that's the thing, right? Look at the scripts for the other teams. To me, it might be Xavier Worthy. I honestly think Worthy is going to get a ton of 60 yarder. What do you have?

[Joe House]

Yeah, I have. One of my best bets of the weekend is McLaren over 68 and a half receiving yards. I mean, they're going to have to. They're going to have to move the ball. He is by far their go to target. The Lions don't have a number one corner. The Lions don't play the type of defense where they're going to put a safety over top of him. They're going to say we can be aggressive and play man coverage. I had McLaurin last week and it was. It was fruitful. He had it very early in that game. And you're right. Two of these games are in bad weather, you know, potentially Buffalo and Philadelphia. So now if you. And maybe even Kansas City. So you get the weather aspect of it being easier to throw the ball. So, yeah, I'm in on the McLaren. Over.

[Bill Simmons]

So plus 850, most rushing, most receiving for the weekend. I think it's worth that little dabble.

[Sheil Kapadia]

I'm on that. I'm on that. Yes. Hail, baby.

[Bill Simmons]

And then the Last one, Washington, plus four and a half, plus 182. Is it worth a dabble?

[Sheil Kapadia]

I'm out. So you have to. You. You can get your answer from she.

[Joe House]

So. So you have the Lions in the other tees at what? Minus two and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

It's like a very, very hairy middle, which is why you'd probably don't do it. If you take the Lions, you're just rooting for the Lions.

[Joe House]

Yeah, it might be. It might conflict you, but if you didn't have the other bet, I would say again, Jaden Daniels rule. If it's over a field goal, why not see Houses?

[Bill Simmons]

I've never seen House do this before with gambling where he doesn't want to jinx his own team. It's really interesting, the divisional round of the effing playoffs.

[Sheil Kapadia]

It's been 25 years. Like, what are you talking about? It's not surprising at all. I haven't been in this position in forever.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, so we.

[Joe House]

You only have a few weeks left. I mean, why.

[Bill Simmons]

If.

[Joe House]

If you're feeling it, go with it. You know, it's not like week three.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Play my. I'm just gonna play my McLaren overs to be satisfied. You made a great case. We'll play McLaurin overs. It's fine.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. Do we like Josh Allen touchdown for plus 105 or. No, not really. Okay.

[Sheil Kapadia]

I think. I think. I mean, you know, decent chance they'll do it.

[Bill Simmons]

It's time the million dollar picks. Round two here with Joe House and Shield Capadia. We are up 1.867 million for the season. We took last week off. We're coming back strong. First bet an eight point teaser on FanDuel. With the Chiefs minus eight and a half, the Eagles minus six and a half and the Lions minus eight and a half. We are teasing all them down. It is even odds on Fanduel. We are breaking the Raheem Palmer rule. We're teasing the Eagles through the zero. I can see him like almost having a convulsion right now, but Eagles to plus one and a half. The other two just to win. That's plus 100. We're going to put 300K on that next bet. The Ravens minus one and a half. Shield was nervous about this one House and I just think it's a. No disrespect to the great people of Buffalo. Bad matchup. Wrong team, wrong time. Ravens minus one and a half. We are putting 250k on that one. And then we're going to dabble in some stuff. Some. Some 10K. Mahomes 4 1/2 runs over plus 1 10. Saquon and Henry. Saquon 18 1/2 yards over. Longest run with Henry. Longest run 20 1/2 plus 236. That's Redshill.

[Joe House]

I think so.

[Bill Simmons]

They just bust runs were good.

[Sheil Kapadia]

It's a great one.

[Bill Simmons]

Stafford, Stroud, both to throw one interception as the road quarterback in bad and potentially bad weather games. Plus 195. So we're doing McLaurin over 60. Eight and a half receiving yards. One dude's two small McLaurin bets.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay. McLaurin over 60 and a half. McLaurin to have the most receiving yards of the weekend. Plus 850. Where there's two games outdoors. He's one of the only ones indoors. And what do you want to put in the parlays? 25k or 10k? I mean not the parlays. The prop bets.

[Sheil Kapadia]

10K is a good number. That that's a, that's, that's how people play them.

[Bill Simmons]

10K. And those are the million dollar picks for round two. Sheil. Happy gambling. Good luck with the Eagles House. Happy gambling. Good luck with the Washington Whatever your name is now.

[Sheil Kapadia]

Hell yes. Hell yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Hail. All right, thanks. Must be 21 plus and President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + in President D.C. gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-89-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-87-7-8, Hope NY or text Hopeny in New York.