Part 2: NBA Trade Team Grades With Rob Mahoney and Wosny Lambre. Plus, Super Bowl LIX Million-Dollar Picks.

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast – Episode Summary

Title: Part 2: NBA Trade Team Grades With Rob Mahoney and Wosny Lambre. Plus, Super Bowl LIX Million-Dollar Picks
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Rob Mahoney and Wosny Lambre
Release Date: February 6, 2025

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Introduction

In the second installment of the NBA Trade Deadline extravaganza, Bill Simmons reunites with regulars Rob Mahoney and Wosny Lambre to dissect the most impactful moves of the season. Beyond basketball, the episode delves into Super Bowl LIX, featuring million-dollar betting picks. The conversation is rich with analysis, fan reactions, and expert opinions, providing listeners with an in-depth understanding of the league's shifting dynamics.

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NBA Trade Deadline Recap

The Trade Landscape:

As the NBA trade deadline passed, the podcast focuses on the seismic shifts, particularly the unexpected move of Luka Dončić from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers. Bill Simmons opens the discussion by highlighting the trade's immediate impact and the rarity of such a blockbuster deal.

Key Trades Discussed:

• Luka Dončić to the Lakers: The centerpiece of the episode is Luka's trade, which stunned fans and analysts alike. Bill remarks, “This is a completely unexpected move that changes the landscape of the league” (00:01).

• Grizzlies' Strategy: Rob Mahoney explains Memphis Grizzlies’ maneuvers to free up cap space, hinting at their interest in Cam Johnson: “Cam Johnson makes a lot of sense for them” (04:15).

• Lakers’ Acquisition of Mark Williams: The Lakers traded Cam Reddish and future picks for Mark Williams, a young center with significant injury concerns. Bill expresses mixed feelings, stating, “I thought he was a steal of the draft” (09:40).

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Luka Dončić Trade Analysis

Implications for the Mavericks and Lakers:

The trade of Luka Dončić marks a pivotal moment for both franchises. Bill Simmons voices his disbelief and concern for the Mavericks: “This is the craziest thing that's happened since I've had a column or a podcast” (53:58). Rob Mahoney questions the rationale behind trading Luka, especially considering his unparalleled performance: “That’s a failure” (34:05).

For the Lakers, the addition of Luka alongside LeBron James is seen as potentially explosive yet uncertain. Waz laments, “I don’t agree, but I don’t think it's the craziest thing” (31:14), highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Luka’s future and the challenge of integrating him with LeBron.

Fan Reactions and Team Dynamics:

The Mavericks’ fanbase is left devastated, grappling with the reality of rooting against their star player for the team to improve. Bill shares a personal anecdote: “It evoked the decision for me. Like, I'm going to remember exactly what” (67:14). The guests debate the emotional and strategic dimensions of the trade, with Rob emphasizing the loyalty traditionally expected to a franchise player.

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Team Grades for Recent Trades

Evaluation Criteria:

Bill, Rob, and Waz systematically grade the various trades that occurred during the deadline, assessing their short-term and long-term impacts.

• Lakers (Mark Williams Trade):

  • Bill Simmons: B+ – Appreciates Williams' potential despite injury concerns.
  • Rob Mahoney: B- – Cautious about Williams' injury history.
  • Waz Lambre: B- – Considers the trade slightly premature for high risks.

• Celtics (Hunter to Cavs):

  • All Hosts: B – Neutral stance, recognizing some strategic value but limited urgency.

• Golden State (Butler to Lakers):

  • Bill Simmons: D- – Views the move as risky given Butler's dynamic but unpredictable nature.
  • Rob Mahoney and Waz: A- and A – More optimistic about the potential synergy between Butler and Golden State.

• Philadelphia (Embiid Plays):

  • Waz Lambre: A+ – Praises the strategic play and Embiid's performance despite missing games.
  • Rob Mahoney: C- – Critical of certain team decisions despite recognizing Embiid's talent.

Overall Assessment:

The panel provides a nuanced view of each trade, balancing player performance, team needs, and future prospects. Bill often leans towards subjective assessments based on personal biases and broader team narratives, while Rob and Waz offer more analytical perspectives focused on player fit and strategic value.

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Insights and Opinions

Luka's Future and Team Strategy:

The discussion intensifies around Luka Dončić's potential tenure with the Lakers, debating whether this move will rejuvenate both Luka and the team or lead to unforeseen complications. Bill contemplates the Lakers' ability to manage Luka alongside LeBron, suggesting a "buddy cop movie" dynamic (56:26).

Comparisons to Historic Trades:

Bill reminisces about past NBA trades, comparing the current Luka trade to iconic moves like Shaquille O’Neal to Miami, emphasizing its unprecedented nature in modern basketball (53:58).

Impact on the NBA Landscape:

The trade's ripple effects are analyzed, including potential shifts in playoff dynamics and the strategic positioning of other teams like the Grizzlies and Lakers. Rob highlights concerns about the Mavericks' future competitiveness without Luka, while Waz points out the potential for the Lakers to become formidable contenders with the new lineup.

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Super Bowl LIX Million-Dollar Picks

Betting Strategies and Picks:

Transitioning from basketball, the podcast shifts focus to Super Bowl LIX, with Bill introducing million-dollar betting strategies in collaboration with FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Chiefs vs. Eagles Analysis:
  Bill breaks down potential game scenarios, comparing them to historic Super Bowl matchups. He provides detailed reasoning behind various betting picks, emphasizing Mahomes' reliability and the Eagles' defensive prowess.

• Million Dollar Picks:
  Bill outlines his high-stakes bets, including large wagers on Chiefs' performance and strategic player props:

  • Example Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (21:45),
  • Parlays: Eagles +8.5 combined with Mahomes over 225 passing yards (21:50).

Engaging the Audience:

Throughout the segment, Bill encourages listeners to consider the statistical likelihood of different outcomes, using historical data to support his picks. He emphasizes responsible gaming, aligning with The Ringer's commitment to promoting safe betting practices.

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Conclusion

Bill Simmons wraps up the episode by celebrating birthdays, acknowledging the intense emotions surrounding the Luka trade, and teasing upcoming content related to the Super Bowl. He reiterates the significance of the trades discussed and their long-term implications for the NBA. The episode concludes with a promotional segment for Peloton and a final nod to the upcoming Super Bowl reaction show.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill Simmons on Luka Trade Shock:
  “This is the craziest trade that's happened since I've had like a column or a podcast” (53:58).

• Rob Mahoney on Trading Luka:
  “You don’t trade Luka Doncic, period. That’s a failure” (34:05).

• Waz Lambre on Team Grades:
  “I think it's pretty high. Everybody's like looking at that as the one” (12:32).

• Bill on Lakers’ Future:
  “If I'm okay, see, I'm not pumped about playing a team that's gonna be able to dictate the pace against us” (14:49).

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Final Thoughts

This episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast offers a comprehensive and engaging analysis of the NBA trade deadline, with a special focus on one of the most unpredictable trades in recent history. Combined with insightful Super Bowl betting tips, Bill Simmons and his guests provide a wealth of information for sports enthusiasts looking to stay ahead of the curve.

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Please note that all timestamps correspond to specific sections within the transcript provided and are used to reference notable quotes.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

Coming up, part two of the big NBA Trade Deadline extravaganza. Next, it's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Super Bowl 59 is here and you can bet on America's number one game with America's number one sportsbook any way you want. Fun markets, who have the most yards, tons of same game parlays, offensive titties in the next drive. So much more. It's the most fun thing about the super bowl for me. Other than watching the game. I love the super bowl props. You can also check out their super bowl squares. Pick your own numbers and make your pick for a kick of Destiny 3 between the Manning brothers. I'm picking Peyton Manning every time because Eli Manning took two Super Bowls from me so he can screw off. When you win, you'll get paid instantly. Download the app today and bet the big game with FanDuel. An official sportsbook partner of Super Bowl 59. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of this episode for additional details. Must be 21 + in President Select States Gamma problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com this episode is brought to you by Pepcid Complete. We all know that one of the best parts of game day is the food. On Sundays, nephew Kyle comes over. Sometimes we'll get healthy. We'll get some salads. Sometimes we'll get a little ambitious. We'll get some sandwiches. It's always the best part of my food week. Well, until heartburn strikes, then it's not as great. You get heartburn from time to time. Gotta watch out. You don't wanna be rolling around in bed all night. Thankfully, Pepcid Complete starts to work instantly. It lasts all day. Just one great tasting chewable tablet provides dual action heartburn relief with an antacid that starts working instantly and an acid reducer that lasts all day. So you can stay focused on that second sandwich, that second second helping. A salad, not heartburn. Visit Pepcid.com to shop now all day based on eight hour symptom relief studies during the day use product only as directed. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network put up a Before Sunrise rewatchables on Monday. You can watch it on our Ringer Movies YouTube channel. You can also watch me and Sean and Chris doing a trailer reaction to Jurassic Park. Money Grab, the new Jurassic park movie. I think that's the title. If you Missed it. Part one of the trade Deadline podcast, which we did live on YouTube, which you can follow if you subscribe. Bill Simmons is the YouTube channel. Me, Rob Mahoney, big Waz. We covered all the angles from the week and then this is going to be part two, which we basically started recording right as the trade deadline ended at 3:00pm ET on Thursday. That is the first part of this podcast. First part of this podcast that the first part of this podcast. And then after that I am going to be doing million dollar picks for a little game they call the Super Bowl. We did not do a lot of football this week, but football was all over the place on the ringer.com, on the ringer podcast network. We had the Ringer gambling show, Ringer NFL. Rocilla did some stuff. The Ringer Philly special was great. So if you want football stuff, I would steer you to the pieces in the podcast we did. And sometimes it's just one of those weeks. I really wanted to do a podcast on Tuesday night. I thought Durant was getting traded to Golden State, so I paused it and then the window passed and we ended up doing a two parter for today. This is part two. First, our friends from Projab. Okay, so it's part two right now officially is 12:01 PT and we're going to talk a lot about the Lakers down the road. Once we know all the trades, the big thing we're waiting up there's been another trade. Sean says Indiana trading James Wiseman and cash to the Toronto Raptors. He can't walk. He blew out his Achilles. So that's our first one. But we're on Grizzlies watch now because they're clearly up to something. They're dumping salary and creating cap room for and roster spots.

[Rob Mahoney]

It feels like.

[Bill Simmons]

Is it Cam Johnson? Maybe.

[Rob Mahoney]

I mean, they've been linked to Cam Johnson for sure. He makes a lot of sense for them.

[Bill Simmons]

What are your Cam Johnson, what's your Cam Johnson?

[Rob Mahoney]

Feelings very much like him as a player. I think he has been now appropriately placed now that we've had the Luka craziness, we've had De'Aaron Fox, we've had Jimmy Butler, everything has cooled down. Cam Johnson is a really good player who could help a bunch of different teams, including the Memphis Grizzlies. And now that is the context in which he lives.

[Waz]

Yeah, he's not the kind of guy that you just stick him on a great wing and think, oh, it's going to be fine. He's not the D part of the 3 and d is. No, I think we finally like, let it go. He's a good. He shoots the hell out of the ball. Variety of ways to get a shot off, which I think is going to be important for Memphis. And he's respectable on defense. Like, that's.

[Bill Simmons]

I like that we're putting him in the Grizzlies now. This is fun. Yeah. I think Memphis, he's going to help them with shooting if. No, no.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, but this is the kind of thing where I don't know to what extent these conversations could be linked, but if the Bucks could have get gotten in on Cam Johnson instead of Kyle Kuzma like that, that's the kind of fit. It honestly might be too high. Well, I mean, Brooklyn just doesn't trade anymore.

[Bill Simmons]

Kuzma's been kicking ass this year.

[Waz]

You guys are gonna ruin the day. You laughed about the Kyle Kuzma.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, when you can get a minus 59 plus minus in one game, you've really accomplished something. I have a quick Nets take before we find out the rest of the trades. Do they really need to do anything else? I kind of like Cam Johnson. I kind of like Nick Claxton. They're going to suck anyway. They're going to be a bottom 10 team, which is their goal. And why not just keep those guys and keep them as assets for the. For the. For the summer? I'd rather do that.

[Rob Mahoney]

I don't think there's a tremendous amount of urgency. I think they do have the option to play out some things. There are a couple of guys like Cam Thomas is sort of the one that comes to mind. Do you really want to be paying free agent Cam Thomas?

[Waz]

Probably not.

[Rob Mahoney]

But, you know, he's also a tougher sell for a lot of different teams. In the first place, he has his own injury concerns that winning teams that are trying to contend right now might not want to take a flyer on something like that. So the guys that I look at for Brooklyn are more like, oh, is there not a way you can flip DLO again? Is there not a market for Camp Thomas? How do you really feel about Day Ron Sharp?

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, why not DLO and Schroeder just. They're just trading them for each other. Was. I didn't want to bring this up because I don't want to spoil the mood because we're having a good time. I know Ben Simmons being traded on trade deadline as an expiring contract was a dream for you, and it feels like the dream is dying right now. What would have been your dream Ben Simmons team?

[Waz]

The dream Ben Simmons team to the.

[Bill Simmons]

Team that gets him and is like, I don't know, we'll see what he has. Maybe he could be an asshole.

[Waz]

Who are those teams though? It's got to be like a Charlotte. It's got to be a Portland. It's got to be a team that's like going absolutely Portland.

[Bill Simmons]

You can't break up Portland right now. They're on fire.

[Waz]

You know what? Like who is the team that says Ben Simmons? Let's take a flyer on this.

[Bill Simmons]

I was thinking with Charlotte just losing their mind, he would have been like a fun lamelo ball kind of combo.

[Rob Mahoney]

I mean they got time to kill at this point.

[Waz]

They got so much time.

[Rob Mahoney]

Can I share something kind of funny with you guys? After all these moves, the Wizards are now officially over the first apron. I mean when you have a chance to really pay out the nose for a roster that is technically true at.

[Bill Simmons]

The moment, just because they wanted to acquire 100 second round picks, took on.

[Rob Mahoney]

A bunch of picks, took on a bunch of money. Congratulations to the Wizards for winning the first apron championship.

[Bill Simmons]

And if you're over the first apron, what does that do exactly for them?

[Rob Mahoney]

Basically nothing at the moment. It just kind of limits the ways in which you can acquire players. And I think by the time that the summer rolls over, enough of that money will come off that. It won't prevent them from like getting somebody in a signed trade or something like that.

[Bill Simmons]

Apparently Seam said on TV that they are not moving Kevin Durant.

[Rob Mahoney]

The Suns, okay.

[Bill Simmons]

I wonder if they were ever really interested in moving Kevin Durant. And I wonder if anyone in Ishbia's conference room was like, we're going to trade Kevin Durant and get Jimmy Butler back. What are we doing?

[Waz]

No, I don't think so.

[Bill Simmons]

Why are we doing that?

[Rob Mahoney]

That seemed like a pipe dream for the Heat if that ever be connected.

[Bill Simmons]

I think that was the Golden State State though. That was.

[Rob Mahoney]

That was their attempt was to make it a three way deal.

[Bill Simmons]

But I think, I think if he wanted to go to Golden State, I think that trade was probably happening in some form. And it was. The Phoenix was getting Butler and some but again maybe the protected pick from Golden State or whatever else.

[Rob Mahoney]

But if you are Phoenix as part of that. That's what we're saying. Like the Beal for Butler conversation makes sense. The Durant trait. Lose Kevin Durant and replace him with Jimmy Butler.

[Bill Simmons]

That's what I'm saying. I think they were going to do it though, which if I was a Suns fan, I would just be alarmed.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think they should be alarmed for many reasons.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, you know, Rob, that's a great point. The sun spins, the alarms are going off. Either way, we do not have. The Knicks are not making a trade. So. All right, so let's start the Lakers part of this conversation and then if anything else happens, we'll just audible and stop and keep going. So the Lakers trade Connect. I don't know if he's going to get a 30 for 30 for his 50 Laker games or what's going to happen, but it was a roller coaster ride. He seemed like the steal of the draft. I think I have a podcast somewhere where I was shitting on Miami for taking where over Connect. It's probably somewhere in my archives.

[Rob Mahoney]

Let's just delete that.

[Bill Simmons]

But. So they turned Connect Cam Reddish, who I think is just 24 years old for the next 10 years. I don't know if he ages. And then a 2031 first and a swap and they bring Mark Williams back. The swap, whatever the. Is Charlotte ever gonna have. Yeah, come on. And then the 2031 first for a team that is almost definitely gonna have Luka Doncic on it. Maybe probably 31 years old, probably not doing backflips about that. Why would they trade Mark Williams, a young center who has really played well the last six weeks. Is this offer, like, just too good to refuse? What was it?

[Rob Mahoney]

I really like Mark Williams, the basketball player. Mark Williams, the injury risks. Scares the hell out of me.

[Bill Simmons]

You mean the 85 career games in three years.

[Rob Mahoney]

He has played less than 40% of his games.

[Bill Simmons]

And he's had three years, like three ankle things. He's had a back thing. Broke his thumb. Not his fault. The back thing was probably the most concerning. Then they said he had some sort of foot issue that they feel good about. So that's the risk.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's one of these things where I. I get why Charlotte would look at this offer and say, you know what? Maybe we just get out of the Mark Williams business. We like him, we like what he's brought, we like his potential. But ultimately maybe he's just too risky. And between Connect and the pick and the swap, that's enough value. And I also honestly do get it from the Lakers. You know, they're not going to have many chances to take swings on players this young and this promising cheap contract.

[Bill Simmons]

Like 5,6 million cheap con.

[Rob Mahoney]

But it's going to come up sooner than you think because he's already been in the league and hurt for so long. And he's going to be just a hell of a lob target for Luka Doncic. Just an incredible finisher already. A pretty good rebounder. Really needs to figure it out defensively. But as far as a team that can grow and build around Luca, that's. That's a great place to start.

[Bill Simmons]

So we know this because we're on the west coast, the east coast. Teams that start playing at 4 o'clock in the afternoon here, and you're like, oh, basketball's on. And then it's like Pistons, Hornets, Wizards, Hornets, literally games. And for whatever reason, most of the bad teams this year in the east and those are the teams playing at 4:00. So there's some people probably talking out of their ass about Mark Williams, but I think we've all probably watched him. And I've definitely watched the Hornets recently and noticed how good Mark Williams was. And they had. There was a Denver game. Jokic got all his stats, but Mark Williams was also getting stats. And I liked him coming out of college. Yeah, I think one of the reasons they traded Nick Richards was they felt like he was ready to be a guy. And he was a guy and he was like lob guy. Who knows what the defense. He's been on bad teams. We have no idea.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's true.

[Bill Simmons]

Lob guy gets 2012 basically every night and is exactly the kind of guy the Lakers needed. I thought it was a good trade. They gave up a lot, but I liked it.

[Waz]

I'm a little bit more lukewarm on it just because I think the price was high in terms of that 2031. Everybody's like looking at that as the one.

[Rob Mahoney]

And that is kind of their one shot was like Dalton, I guess they still have Austin Reeves. They could move Reaves at some point, but connect and the pick and I guess to some extent the swap were their primary catalysts.

[Waz]

So I think that was. That was pretty high. And I think with Luka building around him, I think you should be thinking defense first. And Mark Williams is an offense first player. We get it. He's a huge guy. Like, he's like in the Rudy Gobert category in terms of like length and size and all of that stuff. But he has never shown to be like a great defensive kind of guy in his limited availability.

[Bill Simmons]

You know why he's never shown it? Cause he's played 85 games.

[Rob Mahoney]

It all makes sense.

[Waz]

And that's the thing. Like, maybe he's going to turn into this defensive mom. This Rim protecting beast that he hasn't shown yet because he does have the tools. He's not very mobile. But I just think with Luka you should be thinking defense first and offense. Like with Luka you just don't have to be that great in order to make it work around everything that he does. And so that's the only.

[Bill Simmons]

He's like 7ft 250.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah. And a crazy athlete. Like really, really athletic. And most importantly, he is not Jackson Hayes. So huge upgrade right out of the gate.

[Bill Simmons]

As you guys know, it's, it's. I have to always do a disclaimer. I hate the Lakers and I don't want them to succeed. I saw this trade, I thought they gave up a lot for a guy who we don't even. Has not even played a hundred career games yet. But deep down I was like, fuck, Mark Williams is good. Like he's a good player. And I was just the fun. The Celtics fan side of me was like, fuck that guy. So now I think about the Lakers in a series and I really want to talk about this. Yeah, size. They're gonna, they're gonna play with a certain pace. With Luke and LeBron, it's gonna be slow, methodical, they're gonna be big. And it's the kind of team if I'm okay, see, I'm not pumped about playing a team that's gonna be able to try to dictate the pace against us, that's gonna throw big bodies all over the place. And it's like we're gonna take Mark Williams out. Now all of a sudden we have LeBron, Lukin, Rui, Hamura as their bigs, like they're always going to have size and length basically everywhere except the point guard position. But I don't think in the playoffs.

[Rob Mahoney]

Even at the point, like Austin Reeves is a big point or Luka, whoever you want to consider it.

[Bill Simmons]

And in the playoffs, like Luka just might be the point guard. They might just be Luka, LeBron, two wings and Mark Williams and that's their crunch time lineup. I'd be really scared of this team in the playoffs.

[Waz]

The only thing about the Lakers is you got to do have to think about the defense because it's like is LeBron guarded threes full time? You got Luka, he doesn't guard 1.

[Bill Simmons]

2, 3, 4 or fives.

[Waz]

You got Austin Reeves, you got Mark Williams. Like it's not the greatest offensive situation happening there, but like Luca and LeBron figuring out your little postseason defense, that's scary.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. When you Know people, people try to zag on the trade. Like, how are those guys gonna play together? They both have the ball all the time. And it's like, I'm positive they're gonna figure this out.

[Waz]

Not worried about it. Figure out how to play off who.

[Bill Simmons]

Has the smart smallest guy in them, you or me? Oh, you do. All right. You're going to have the ball down.

[Waz]

Bludgeon him to death.

[Rob Mahoney]

Also low key. Luka, I thought was a pretty good sport about playing off the ball more this season in general. Like had actually started to make some meaningful improvement in that part of his game. LeBron can obviously do it. These are brilliant players. It's not going to be a problem in terms of the offense. And you're right, the thing that we talk about is being maybe the most important skill set in basketball is how do you break down half court defense and can you score one on one against anybody? They have guys who can do that at an incredibly high level.

[Bill Simmons]

Two of the most brilliant basketball players of this century, they're now together. They have a team that the worries were, we don't have enough size. How are we going to guard people? You know, Vanderbilt, Finney, Smith, at least be like, all right, if we're playing some hot wing in a playoff series, do we have somebody that we can at least cover them with? They have that. I don't think they're going to be able to guard point guards at all.

[Waz]

No.

[Bill Simmons]

So like, you pick a point guard if that guy's dusty.

[Waz]

You don't play a team that wants to spread you out because again, LeBron, Luka getting spread out, like first two.

[Bill Simmons]

Rounds in the playoffs, like, it's, it's like three, four. It really doesn't get to a conference finals when it's every other day. And I think they could make the conference finals. Like, I can't believe how things have flipped. It makes me want to pull one of my kidneys out and whip it against the fucking wall. But they're going to be really hard to play. And if I look at like OKC number one, who's number two? Yeah, for playoffs, who has the ability to do this? The Lakers are the first choice.

[Waz]

Denver's still my first choice. But again, like, you're going to have to pride Denver out of my cold, dying hands. Right. In terms of.

[Bill Simmons]

So maybe, maybe they're 2B. Yeah. Lakers, Denver, 2A, 2B and some.

[Waz]

Houston is so young. The offense is like, you still got to make shots.

[Rob Mahoney]

The Grizzlies erasure.

[Waz]

No, the Grizzlies Come on, guys.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, but I think the Grizz are going to be really good in the. Even in a playoffs. They have a lot to prove, as all these teams do, the Lakers included. Like, we need to have the Lakers guard.

[Waz]

Jaw is taking all his time off. He's saving his body.

[Rob Mahoney]

I hope you're right. I hope you're right.

[Bill Simmons]

That's where. That's where my train gets off.

[Waz]

The Grizzlies.

[Bill Simmons]

No, with the Ja thing, he's just not playing basketball enough.

[Waz]

Got you.

[Bill Simmons]

And it feels like they're beholden to him and the potential of what he can do, but he's just not doing it regularly. And so I think that's probably the team that has the upside ceiling.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yes, they could.

[Bill Simmons]

But if I'm just betting, I'm taking Denver and the Lakers are the two.

[Waz]

Another Laker thing with this trade. I think they're betting majorly on free agency in 2026. And I looked at it is a. Like, you can look it up. It's like a bunch of older guys. And the number one prize is Jaren Jackson, which I'm not doing. I'm not doing that. I'm not putting the Laker jersey on Jaren Jackson. I'm just saying LeBron might be Jaren Jackson to the Lakers. LeBron might be done.

[Bill Simmons]

Obviously, he's his 50 to grow up a Laker fan. Is it one of those.

[Waz]

No, no, no, no. I'm just saying he is the. The main target of pretty much every team in the league at this point.

[Bill Simmons]

But I think that's why they did the smart trade, though. Cause I think Memphis is trying to give him a massive extension. By the way, he might be an all NBA guy.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I think he's in the running for it.

[Bill Simmons]

Like, he could be a tremendous season.

[Waz]

But the rest of the guys in 2026, which I think the Lakers are also banking on that they're going to bring in a major talent in 2026 as well that summer.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Let's take a. We'll take a quick break for the podcast. Whether you're riding with the Chiefs or the Eagles, FanDuel is yet another way for you to win big. During Super Bowl 59, FanDuel has put together two parlays that feature an exclusive profit boost tied to me. Yeah, if you think the Chiefs are going to win in their qb, you know who he is. He's going to throw for over 225 passing yards. Bet that you get bigger winnings with the boost. If it hits it's over 2 to 1. Or if you think the Eagles are going to win in their star running back, you know who he is is going to have over a hundred rushing yards. That's cool. You get a big profit boost on that two. I'm going to tell you which one I like when we do Million Dollar Picks at the end of part two of this podcast. Either way, these parlays are all set to bet. Visit FanDuel.com BS to claim your exclusive profit boost. FanDuel.com BS bet Super Bowl 59 on America's number one sportsbook. Make every moment more with FanDuel, an official sports betting partner of the NFL. You must be 21 plus in President Suc States or 18 plus in President DC. Optimum required bonus issued as non withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply including any token expiration and max wager amount. See [e-mail] Gammon problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com this episode is brought to you by Paramount. Ridley Scott's return to ancient Rome and Gladiator 2 is nothing short of awesome. And now you can stream it at home on Paramount. Years after the death of Maximus, Lucius is forced into the Coliseum after his home is conquered by a tyrannical twin Roman emperors. With the future of the empire at stake, you must find strength and honor to return the glory of Rome to its people. Gladiator 2 now streaming on paramountplus.com rated R. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Winning is a great feeling, but let's be honest, it's even better with a prize like Michelob Ultra's Superior Light Beer. And that's exactly what you'll get with Play youy for an Ultra on Doordash. You can challenge your friends to a game racer match and send the winner a Michelob Ultra because Superior is always worth playing for. Participate in. Play you for an Ultra and send the winner an Ultra through doordash today. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2025 Anheuser Busch McLobe Ultra Light Beer St. Louis, MO must be 21 or older to order alcohol. Alcohol available only in select markets. I'm going to read you the Western Conference odds. OKC is plus 105. Who do you think is the number two best odds in the west right now?

[Rob Mahoney]

Probably the Lakers. Just because everyone bets on the Lakers, I would think.

[Bill Simmons]

What do you have Les?

[Waz]

I would go Memphis.

[Bill Simmons]

So Denver is second at six. Who do you think is number three?

[Rob Mahoney]

I mean, I'm assuming it's. I'm just going to keep saying the Lakers until they show up.

[Bill Simmons]

Lakers plus 7:50. So we basically what we said before. The gambling public also agrees Grizzlies are fourth.

[Waz]

People seen that Luca trade and just said, yeah, I need it.

[Bill Simmons]

Grizzlies fourth at 11 1. Houston. I'm sorry. Clippers 16 to 1.

[Rob Mahoney]

And this is to win the West.

[Bill Simmons]

Win the West.

[Waz]

The Clippers are above the Rockets to win the West 18 one.

[Bill Simmons]

You know why they're above the Rockets? Because everyone's seen these fucking crunch time Fred Van Vliet plays. Nobody can watch them anymore. How many, how many, how many terrible step back threes can you have in one season?

[Rob Mahoney]

Leave Fred alone.

[Bill Simmons]

How many? I like Fred, but how is that your offense at the end of games?

[Rob Mahoney]

It shouldn't be. It shouldn't be. He's turned out to be like quite critical to making them functional.

[Bill Simmons]

Do they draw those up in the huddle? I don't think Fred stepped back three again. We're only down two.

[Waz]

He's miscasting his role as number one. Crunch time.

[Bill Simmons]

I think he thinks he's the guy in the team though.

[Waz]

But often like who is going to create.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm just spreading the floor for Thompson and just get to the basket somehow.

[Waz]

Maybe that's where they get to just.

[Bill Simmons]

Get to the basket.

[Waz]

Ime can't. He's not going to bring himself to be like Amend. Thompson is now our freaking crunch time scorer.

[Bill Simmons]

Or Jalen Green. One of those guys spread the floor for me.

[Waz]

Jay Jerryn is the one post up Shen Goon.

[Rob Mahoney]

You lost me at Jalen Green. Look, he's had great moments.

[Waz]

I just hated Jalen Green.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm just going to the basket over the Fred bamboo. Step back. I can't do it again.

[Rob Mahoney]

I feel that. I feel that. I think Amen right now is thriving in chaos anytime the floor is unstable, unbalanced, unsettled. He's so good. Set half court defense. Coming out of a timeout drive with a guy right in your face. Not quite his game yet.

[Bill Simmons]

Houston 18 1. Golden State 20 to 1. Minnesota 23 to 1. Interesting because they have a chance to be a top five.

[Rob Mahoney]

I want to say this too. There's a difference, I would say, between the odds to win the west and the odds to also make the conference finals alongside the Thunder. I don't think Memphis can beat OKC in a way that you can talk yourself into the Lakers. You could talk yourself into Denver. You can see the way their advantages.

[Waz]

Profile, the size advantage and the sort of mind advantage of, you know, out executing this really young team who's still only ever done the second round last year. You could see yourself. Memphis is not going to have the IQ advantage in any series that they're in. It's just not going to be the case.

[Bill Simmons]

They're super young and relying on dudes that have never been there. So I haven't done a podcast since Sunday night with Goldsberry and definitely not since the press conference, which I know, I think you guys talked about, didn't you guys?

[Rob Mahoney]

On the Nico Harrison press conference?

[Bill Simmons]

No, the LUCA press conference.

[Rob Mahoney]

Oh, sure, yeah, yeah. Actually, we didn't talk about that.

[Bill Simmons]

You didn't talk about that one?

[Rob Mahoney]

No, no talk. Leather jackets or what? What do you want? What do you want to go.

[Bill Simmons]

I've been talking, obviously, like you guys talking a lot about this Luca trade the last few days. And so if you're in the room with Nico Harrison and he bring. First of all, let's live in the facade of the world where nobody knew about this trade except Nico Harrison, the Mavs owner, Jeanie Buss and Pelinka. We'll be in that pretend world where LeBron didn't know and Rich Paul didn't know and Jason Kidd didn't know. We'll be in that pretend world that didn't actually exist and you're actually in the room and Nico Harrison is like getting close. We might do this. Did anyone around him at some point say, don't do this, you're going to trade Luka to the Lakers? All the things that frustrate you about him. All you're doing is putting a giant fucking chip on his shoulder and he's going to turn into Liam Neeson in the second half of Taken and be fucking awesome for the Lakers. You have to factor that in the trade. You're not trading this guy now who's 280 pounds in December. And you know, he's kind of. Maybe he's kind of a dick to people. Who knows? Who knows what the reasons are? But just this is what this is. What would be the result of the trade is this fucking maniac on the Lakers trying to get his vengeance year after year on you and the Mavs. Don't do this. I don't think anyone said that to him.

[Waz]

I think the Luca having issues with his body and his conditioning.

[Bill Simmons]

He's 25.

[Waz]

It bothers people who Jason Kidd, who was a great player himself, been around greatness, hyper competitive guy, has yo talk about calling Luka out. Nobody in the history of Luka's career has done more publicly to call Luka out. I remember him saying, I'm not the savior. I'm not the one who people call the savior of the franchise like Jason Kidd and Nico Harrison, who, again, is a big Kobe guy. And you think about the way Kobe comported himself and took his superstardom so.

[Rob Mahoney]

Seriously, eventually came to comport himself. It didn't start out that way.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, the revisionist history. We've just thrown out the entire mid 2000s.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Waz]

But. But that's the thing, though. Like, he was around Kobe when he was that maniacal person. I think there's just, like, a boy king factor where it's. You just feel like this. We can't get Luka to do these things. Now, why, when we guarantee him $350 million, is he going to do it.

[Bill Simmons]

Because he's Luka Doncic? Because he's off to one of the best fives starts in the first seven years?

[Waz]

I'm playing devil's advocate here. I could see a bunch hyper, competitive people being like, this guy's just the next Embiid. He's never going to do the requisite things to get his body in check. He's never going to actually be on the floor for us. We get it. He took us to the Finals, but he just doesn't care enough about this extra stuff. And so let's get out of this business. I don't agree.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's just. It's such a narrow view of what greatness looks like, of that it basically has to look like Kobe Bryant's, like, basically fake workhouse. I don't.

[Waz]

I disagree. Look at Steph Curry. Look at LeBron. Look at Jokic. He. Look at what he did to get his conditioning and all of his stuff right. Like, the best players actually do this.

[Rob Mahoney]

I. I don't disagree with you, but, like, you could look at Giannis's injury history, and that's a guy who takes great care of himself, who puts incredible work on his game, on his body. Some guys get hurt, and some guys get hurt for reasons that have nothing really to do with whatever their conditioning is or whatever state their body is in. And honestly, the problem with the Embiid comp. And it's come up a lot like this is sort of the primary defense you hear is a Joel Embiid comparison for Luka Daca.

[Bill Simmons]

He plays half of the games in his career.

[Rob Mahoney]

Also, Luka. Luka at his best is better than Joel Embiid has ever Been. And he has done more in the playoffs than Joel embedded and went to.

[Bill Simmons]

The finals nine months ago.

[Rob Mahoney]

Nine months ago.

[Waz]

That's the thing.

[Bill Simmons]

I also could.

[Waz]

Going to the finals is the thing for me. It's like he's. He's put it on. He's put it on the floor like that. He has it in him to carry a team to the freaking finals. Like he's 25.

[Bill Simmons]

He's 25. He's not the person. Human being slash work ethic guy he's gonna be. Yeah, we've seen people. I know I made a shitload of mistakes in my mid-20s. I'm sure you guys did too. Things you would take back. We've seen it with athletes over and over again. Including Kobe Bryant, by the way. Mid 20s aren't. If the talent is there and the competitiveness is there, which it has been the entire time with this dude. And your only thing is I wish he was in better shape. I wish maybe he treated people around here a little bit better. Like those aren't real reasons to trade him. And I just think they did him the all time favor. You could see in the press conference. He looked miserable. He looked shell shocked. He looked like he couldn't believe this happened. And I just think maybe it's because I'm older and I've been down this road a few times in sports. I just think he's. I would bet anything he's going to be awesome in the Lakers. I just think this is the kind of thing sometimes guys need. It's like the cattle product.

[Rob Mahoney]

And that's it. And again they're bet. The Mavericks have effectively bet not just by trading away Luka, but by bringing back a Lakers pick as the primary future return of the deal. That this will not work or that he's going to leave or that he's going to leave. I think both. I think both of those things are bad bets. And to put yourself in Luka's shoes.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh no.

[Rob Mahoney]

Oh boy.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh my God. Conspiracy Bill is back. It's almost like they think he's headed somewhere in the summer of 2026. And that's why they wanted that 20, but also 29 first. But both they and Luca have said it's like a. Like they know something.

[Rob Mahoney]

They're on. Nico Harrison is now on the record as saying there was no indication that Luca from him or any of his representatives would not have taken the supermax.

[Waz]

He's still. But he's kind of talked out of both sides of his mouth on the supermax.

[Rob Mahoney]

Luca also basically laughed at the question when it was presented to him of, did you ever say that you were not going to take the Superman? Like, why would he turn down over $100 million to continue playing for the team that he just took to the NBA Finals?

[Waz]

So a couple guys have.

[Bill Simmons]

Because he likes Florida, maybe.

[Waz]

AD Did.

[Rob Mahoney]

No one likes it that much.

[Waz]

AD Asked for his trade before he could sign his big supermax in New Orleans. Kawhi did it to San Antonio. So there are guys who have done it before. There's no indication that Luka was headed down that path.

[Bill Simmons]

This is the thing.

[Waz]

We have no evidence.

[Rob Mahoney]

We have so little evidence or justification for this trade. You have to invent reasons why it could be.

[Waz]

Also, our memories are kind of short, too, because remember before the Gaffer deal, the PJ Washington deal? That was like, a big part of the chatter around Luka. Dallas needs to do something right now to prove to Luka Doncic day he needs to stay here.

[Rob Mahoney]

But.

[Waz]

So it wasn't that long.

[Bill Simmons]

But that's like, the lazy NBA discourse. They've got a man.

[Waz]

I think it was people that were plugged in with, like, they need to prove they were building a winner. That was a big part of the possible.

[Bill Simmons]

Luca's just not from this country. And sometimes a organization of mostly American people that couldn't really get a handle on a guy from Slovenia. Like, does it seem like Denver has a handle on Jokic?

[Rob Mahoney]

I mean, Nicole Jokic could retire this summer, and I wouldn't be surprised.

[Bill Simmons]

Wouldn't be surprised anybody who is even remotely associated with the Nuggets, they're like, that guy could fucking retire in two months and none of us would be shocked. So.

[Rob Mahoney]

And his jersey would go up in the rafters and still be one of the greatest players of all time.

[Waz]

Like, we're doing the two. Like.

[Bill Simmons]

No, I get it.

[Waz]

I'm just saying guys. But, like.

[Bill Simmons]

But I'm saying obviously different, but there was a disconnect with the organization and their best player, and it's come out ever since. And they had no problem.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Especially when they realized how unpopular the trade was. They had no problem leaking stuff out left and right, including stuff I'm not going to say in the pod, but the fact that they kept this trade secret because they knew their fans were gonna be so upset about it that the moment it leaked, there was gonna be such a reaction against it that the owners would have backed out. Should tell you you're making the wrong trade.

[Rob Mahoney]

Probably should.

[Bill Simmons]

That's all I need to know. It's like, hey, we have to keep this between us. It can't get out. Why can't it get out? What would be the bad thing about it getting out? Because then more teams would offer stuff for Luka Doncic. No, it can't get out because you don't want the Mavs fan base to have a riot outside the arena.

[Waz]

Here's the thing again. I personally would have signed the guy then tried to move him if I hated his professional work habits so much. That's what I think they should have did. However, if you are of the mind, you put together a team that went to the finals last year, you have a guy who cannot play and you think if you bring in an all NBA level player that you are going to continue to be a championship worthy type of squad. I don't agree, but I don't think it's the craziest thing that you could say putting it is a little bit.

[Rob Mahoney]

If you put the ages of those players into the conversation.

[Waz]

Hold on. If you, if you're prioritizing this year, looping Luka and his agent and everybody in does not help you. They start telling teams no, don't do it. No, don't.

[Bill Simmons]

Actually just like the Anthony Davis New.

[Waz]

Orleans thing, it actually does start to handicap the amount of teams I hear you, you can go about moving to. So if you, if you're going on Nico Harri idea of what how good Dallas could be this year, it actually makes sense.

[Bill Simmons]

I just think he's wrong with David Kahn in like two years. That's where it's headed for him.

[Rob Mahoney]

What gets me about this is you don't trade Luga Doncic, period. That's a failure. The decision to trade him because you don't like what basically are these puffs of smoke about his work habits and his conditioning. Not real actual basketball.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, and then also in the finals last year when Windhorst had the rant after game three because Luka acted immaturely and he has those moments.

[Rob Mahoney]

Absolutely, that absolutely happens. The real thing, that's a part of his game. I still would not trade him for any of those reasons. If you did decide to trade him, keeping it secret, not, not lobbying offers. And I, I hear you that for this season that would be complicated. So play out this season, a season in which Luka Doncic is going to be a better basketball player than Anthony Davis, provided that he's healthy and back on the court. Play it out. And then once you get him under contract for the supermax.

[Waz]

But then that becomes another Thing like how you can't bring Luka Doncic back after you put him on, but if.

[Rob Mahoney]

Your assumption is that he wants to leave, then it's all part of the same process.

[Bill Simmons]

It's a scare tactic. Can we bring back in conspiracy building? Yeah, let's do it one more time.

[Rob Mahoney]

So it's getting a workout today.

[Bill Simmons]

So the Mavs Cuban sells the team, which was fishy to begin with. He was always like, I'm Mav's owner for life. Then all of a sudden he's like, yeah, I'm selling. Sells it to this Vegas group that has gambling ties. All this stuff. The league greenlights it. Did the league say, this is why Conspiracy Bill is sometimes he's on crack. Did the league say, we'll greenlight the team, but you got to trade Luca to the Lakers in two years.

[Rob Mahoney]

This is coming from a place of deep hurt, I can tell. Conspiracy Bill also wearing Green.

[Bill Simmons]

This is Q9. QAnon Bill is here.

[Waz]

That's. That is another part of this. That's like Mav's ownership group is completely out to lunch on this.

[Bill Simmons]

Or are they. Or are they.

[Waz]

How do you put your stamp of approval on this?

[Bill Simmons]

Or are they. Or are they hoping they just swap teams with the Vegas expansion in a couple years and get the F out of Dallas?

[Waz]

I don't. I mean, Vegas, in terms of a market is not even close to Dallas.

[Rob Mahoney]

Not even comparable market sizes.

[Waz]

No planet like Vegas need to be compared themselves to Memphis.

[Bill Simmons]

It's funny that this trade happened five days ago and we're still struggling to understand arisen.

[Rob Mahoney]

We're at the level of, like, looking at the Texas state legislative calendar to.

[Waz]

Figure out when betting should become legal.

[Bill Simmons]

You realize what's going to happen, like, five days from now, seven days from now, Luka's going to have, like, 59 points in a game, and people are going to be like, what just happened? How did we allow this trade? We're going to move into that.

[Waz]

Have you seen the Anthony Edwards sound where he's just like, guys, he kicked our asses to get to the finals. This guy is a stone cold killer.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, that's Anthony Edwards.

[Waz]

If this guy can be traded like, bro, please don't trade me. If you could trade Luka Doncic.

[Bill Simmons]

So his next games, he's. So if he comes back Saturday, that's.

[Rob Mahoney]

I believe he's expected to come back.

[Bill Simmons]

Saturday at this point, but figure so. Rest of the schedule is Indiana, Utah at Utah Home, Charlotte, February 19th. That has 70 written all over it. At Portland at Denver. Home, Dallas. Oh, my God. Home, Dallas.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think they have two games left.

[Bill Simmons]

So February 25th, Dallas and then Minnesota Clippers. He. He's going to have, like 59 in one of those. There's going to be a game when we just all lose our minds that this happened.

[Waz]

By the way, he had a tough start to the season for Luka. Standards.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Waz]

Felt like he wasn't, you know, didn't come to camp and, you know, a lot of the guys. Best shape of my life. Blah, blah, blah. 10% body fat. We didn't hear any of those rumors about Luka coming into camp.

[Rob Mahoney]

But the tough start is 28, 8 and 8. Yeah, that's a tough start for Luka Doncic. You know, that's garbage production.

[Waz]

39 in the conference finals last year.

[Rob Mahoney]

What are we doing? What are we doing?

[Waz]

You're trading this guy to the Lakers? Oh, God.

[Bill Simmons]

My dad called me the next. Because he was asleep in. The trade happened. My dad was terrible.

[Waz]

Was he miserable?

[Bill Simmons]

He was terrified of Luke in the finals, and he hates the Lakers more than I do. And he just. He said he got all these texts and he woke up the next day and thought. Thought we made a trade, the Celtics. And then saw that was a trade. He was like. Like, I don't like how. How did they not stop this? Like, yeah, now we have to deal with Luka, who's going to be pissed off and humbled and big picture. I don't want to see them in a playoff series. If I'm anyone in the West.

[Rob Mahoney]

No. And that has changed.

[Bill Simmons]

You would not have said that about the Lakers three weeks ago, that Knicks game when LeBron was starting to look better, I was like, oh, and Davis comes back. This team's interesting. I could see them maybe winning around and throwing some punches in round two. And now this is the team that LeBron James, at age 40, now has a chance to make the finals again.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, it's a classic. Like, Anthony Davis raises your floor. Luka Doncic raises the fuck out of your ceiling.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, he knocks out the ceiling completely. And you. You have no idea what to expect.

[Waz]

And Denver OKC are the only two teams you can credibly say, Luka won't be the best player in the series. Head and shoulders, by the way. And then, you know, he's got LeBron backing him up pretty good. Pretty, pretty good.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. And you go through the rest of the West. I like this Clippers team, but the fact that they went backwards. I don't harden in a playoff series. I don't see it. Minnesota mess. Phoenix, no way. Dallas as a possible wild card and Golden State as a possible wild card. And that's really it. Unless Wemby just does something in absolutely all time insane.

[Rob Mahoney]

It would be shocking. It's not shocking. If the stores make the playoffs, if they advance, would be pretty surprising.

[Waz]

Huge mega upset.

[Rob Mahoney]

They have so many young guys. They need to learn a lot. Like the Warriors. Warriors are a team that I could envision making it through to the second round. Not a run run, but keeping competitive, scaring somebody a little bit. That could be a thing.

[Waz]

Jimmy Butler with something to prove is something I want to bet on.

[Rob Mahoney]

Quinton Post was.

[Bill Simmons]

Quentin Post was. Can you walk us through the Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green text messages?

[Waz]

A lot of profanity.

[Bill Simmons]

What's Draymond does? Sends the first text, right?

[Waz]

Definitely. Draymond sends the first like a let's.

[Bill Simmons]

Get it exclamation point.

[Waz]

It's more like we're gonna rip people's faces off, chew them up, spit em out, kill em. They're a bunch of P words. These guys have nothing on us. It's about time we got together. Like, we're talking about two of the ultimate, like, confidence maniacs that have ever existed. And by the way, in the NBA.

[Bill Simmons]

They, I think were together in the 2016 Olympics. I. I think they're good.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm not worried. Like, I see a lot of chatter about, oh, my God, these two big.

[Waz]

Personalities off of each other.

[Rob Mahoney]

The people Jimmy Butler doesn't like are not the Draymond. They're the people that he sees as, like, timid or unreliable. And like, Draymond shows up.

[Waz]

Andrew Wiggins type.

[Rob Mahoney]

The young Andrew Wiggins.

[Waz]

Yes.

[Rob Mahoney]

Pre. Pre warriors revolution Andrew Wiggins. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. He's like, I think it'll be fine. I would say Draymond's short term probably a bigger risk to everything than Butler because I think Butler will be in his best behavior for this season at the very least. And he'll probably come to Golden State. Maybe he'll launch a podcast with the ringer. Who knows?

[Rob Mahoney]

Invest in AI. Bring him in, move some coffee like he's got stuff.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe invest in Draymond Green's restaurant.

[Waz]

He can get his agent on a podcast.

[Bill Simmons]

Bernie, that guy's got a lot of character of the year. So if you had wild card teams and I gave you Golden State and I gave you Dallas for one of those two teams would be in the Western finals. Which one would you pick? I would take Golden State over Dallas.

[Waz]

Golden State.

[Bill Simmons]

So you just think that the stink of this trade is going to submarine Dallas this season.

[Waz]

Like Jimmy Butler and Steph's playoff pedigree and like level that these guys have gotten to, even if they don't get to what they've been anywhere in that neighborhood is just.

[Bill Simmons]

No, I think the part that, I mean, Nico Harrison, there are many parts he missed with the trade. I don't think he realized what a distraction, slash disaster, slash running, running story this was going to be. Especially if Luca starts playing well for the Lakers. Oh yeah, it's going to single hand the submarine their season.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think it's going to follow him and the team for the rest of his career as a general manager. I would think we'll see what it ends up doing to the Mavs. My concern is not just, oh, you gave away Luka Doncic. It's really hard to make long playoff runs when you basically have no plus level passers on your roster. And if you look at what the Mavs lineup is going to be now, AD at the 4, either lively or Gafford at the 5, Kyrie is now your primary and basically only creator. Klay Thompson, PJ Washington. How are you breaking people down beyond Kyrie? Just going.

[Bill Simmons]

That's one of the funniest things about the trade is that they built this whole roster around Luka. All these dudes that were meant to fit with him. And then they trade Luka and like.

[Waz]

Even in those lineups where you're benching both Lively and Gafford and you're playing AD at his most optimal position, it's still Kyrie making that pick and roll happen. And that's just not.

[Bill Simmons]

And Kyrie, we know, and I think Kyrie's been really good the last couple years, but he's lost his stuff. I also think you can like the Celtics, the big thing when Luka fouled out in game three and it was like, all right, Kyrie, take us home. The Celtics shut him down and you can shut him down with, with wings and size. And if you know he's getting the ball, it's not the same Kyrie from five, six years ago. Davis, you know, Davis can be overpowering. Maybe he'll have a chip on his shoulder, I don't know, depending on the matchup.

[Waz]

Like there's matchups that he overwhelms where like he can be that one on one guy. But for, you know, for the most part, it's not going to happen.

[Bill Simmons]

Bill, I'm going to pick my four.

[Waz]

Very upset about the Luka Trade.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. I don't know if it's because I'm older and I just know how it's going to play out because I've seen it. But you know, same like it was similar to when Shaq got traded to Miami and it was like, Shaq's out of shape. Shaq's fat. And it's like cool. He's not going to be fat anymore because you pissed him off. And then he went to Miami and he had two awesome years for them. If I had to go four west teams that I don't think are going to make it, San Antonio, Sacramento, those.

[Waz]

Are my odd men out.

[Bill Simmons]

Phoenix, Dallas. Because of, I think the, I think the, the karma, all that from the trade.

[Waz]

Those would be my four goes down.

[Bill Simmons]

It's down for two weeks and he.

[Rob Mahoney]

Has a bulging disc in his back.

[Waz]

At this point, P.J. washington is going to be creating offense, you know, like Spencer Dinwiddy. It's cool. Spencer Dinwiddie, who's been a nice backup this year, by the way, but he got signed for a minimum contract for a reason. Like I like Spencer Diddy. Diddy Spencer. But I, I just, I can't.

[Bill Simmons]

You have to edit that out of the pod. Excellently said Diddy. I'm not even sure we're allowed to say that on a podcast.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think the Clippers might slide out. I said that with all due respect, all due respect to the season they've had. I just think they could be a candidate.

[Waz]

They're overachieving. Like hell yeah.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think they probably will end up as a play in team, but maybe get bounced and they haven't had one.

[Waz]

Part of the season where they've had like lose five out of seven or like they haven't done that. They just been consistently solid all year.

[Bill Simmons]

They do Philadelphia before we go, just seem like they're shedding salary maybe to pay Yabu in the. In the summer as they should. Most popular sixer.

[Rob Mahoney]

One of their best.

[Waz]

Going to make the play in, are they? Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Wes, how'd you feel about Embiid missing the Boston and Denver games but being ready for Dallas and Daniel Gafford and no Luca.

[Waz]

I really like him. He's always like for the big records.

[Bill Simmons]

Did that jump out of you or. No, The Dallas game. He was ready.

[Waz]

Look man, this really.

[Rob Mahoney]

I feel very, very privileged to be at the table with two bonafide and bead skeptics for a long, long time.

[Bill Simmons]

Just play basketball. It's one of my rules. If you're a basketball player, play Basketball.

[Waz]

I gotta give it up to my guy, Ben Golliver. He was actually the first person to point this out to me. Is like, all this nobody. Like, it's never his fault. It's Tobias Harris. It's Ben Simmons. It's Brett Brown.

[Rob Mahoney]

Brett Brown.

[Waz]

It's Sam Hinkey. It's always somebody else's fault.

[Rob Mahoney]

And now everybody's like, the bill has come due.

[Waz]

Yeah, it's tough, but no, the Bulls are. The Bulls are in the 10th seed, and they're one game above the Sixes right now. They're done.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, that's fair.

[Waz]

The Bulls season is.

[Rob Mahoney]

You don't think Pat Williams is going.

[Bill Simmons]

To save these guys?

[Waz]

I don't think Pat Williams is coming to the rescue.

[Bill Simmons]

And the Hawks are counter.

[Waz]

What was that?

[Bill Simmons]

I like Budzelas.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, sure, but do you like him as a player who's going to cement a play in.

[Bill Simmons]

I wonder if they can patch together a lot of Levine stats with the guys they have. If Lonzo can play more minutes, Budzealous can be pretty good. They kept Vucevich.

[Rob Mahoney]

They did.

[Waz]

I think it's just a Kobe White just shooting.

[Bill Simmons]

Could Kobe White get more like. I. I do feel like they can patch together 24 points a game from other people.

[Waz]

I think the Bulls are done, and I don't think they want to be, you know.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, they want to be in the bottom 10. Right. That's one of the teams that has the.

[Waz]

They have the incentive, but, you know, got their pick back.

[Rob Mahoney]

They did get their pick back. Nothing sweeter.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I mean.

[Waz]

So Philly, if you love something, let it go. It comes back.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, Philly. Philly beats Dallas. Embiid looks good. Doesn't play the next night against Miami, and they end up losing to Miami by seven. Paul George didn't play either. Oh, no. He played 32 minutes and had nine points and one rebound and two assists.

[Waz]

One of the worst contracts in the league this year.

[Bill Simmons]

You fucking better believe we are. He's in the running for number one pick.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's tough. Newly minted, too. Not even. Didn't take any time to age into milk. You know, just.

[Waz]

He's.

[Bill Simmons]

There should be a Twitter account. Twitter account that just says I that the name of the account is I don't understand why you're not playing tonight. And it could just be like, John Rant's not playing because, you know, his heel hurts. Paul George knee rest maintenance. Like, these excuses these dudes have. The Paul George thing's really rough.

[Rob Mahoney]

They did get Quinn Grimes. I don't like as far as trading Caleb Martin for Quentin Grimes a better younger player Yeah I didn't understand that.

[Bill Simmons]

Trade for from Dallas's side that's when.

[Waz]

I started getting scared for Nico Harris.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well Jason Kidd hasn't trusted Grimes all year at least that's the way it appears like he doesn't have anything but he can guard. He can guard, he can play. I thought he's off the dribble game has actually been pretty useful I don't I never really got why he wasn't more of like a fixture in the rotation.

[Waz]

I'm pretty sure I fell in love with Quentin Grimes the same summer league I thought Matt McClung could could stick.

[Rob Mahoney]

On a team that dream is still alive.

[Bill Simmons]

Osceola Magic stand up was how are you feeling that with all the Lakers movement is is there a spot for Bronnie now in the 10 man rotation.

[Waz]

Or no still got to pay his dues in the G league. Probably won't be on the playoff roster. Okay but it's early he signed a four year deal Bill so it's a.

[Bill Simmons]

Marathon not a sprint.

[Waz]

Not a sprint with the great Bronnie James.

[Bill Simmons]

Any last things before we go Rob?

[Rob Mahoney]

I just can't believe we're still here with the Suns. I can't believe they didn't like they move Yusuf, Nurkic, all that spinning of their wheels and we're just gonna have to watch them like try to get better by doing what exactly? I don't know.

[Waz]

Ryan having KD more regular.

[Rob Mahoney]

I mean I mean he's been pretty healthy. Like I know he's out with the ankle thing right now but like had pretty good health by Kevin Durant. Modern standards. I guess you're just banking on some members of your rotation to play better to somehow guard better. I just I'm very disappointed by where Phoenix season has ended up at this point.

[Bill Simmons]

Well I mean it could be worse. They could have given away Mikhail Bridges and Cam Johnson and seven first round picks.

[Rob Mahoney]

They could have.

[Bill Simmons]

I still I'll never get over them just throwing Cam Johnson in that trade on top of everything else they were giving up and and then Ishbay was we got to get him. All right fine. Throw in Cam Johnson. Like that part was nuts.

[Waz]

He was thirsty man. He had that new owner thirst. He had that look.

[Bill Simmons]

It's great. It's the opposite of the look that new owners of the Mavericks have. I've never to antagonize the fan base.

[Rob Mahoney]

I've never seen anything like it.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah you know a few mavs fans, right?

[Rob Mahoney]

They're devastated. I've never seen a fan base this inconsolable. And I get it. I completely get it.

[Waz]

Also, like, if you know anything about their new owner, she's, like, got her hands in things.

[Rob Mahoney]

She's got her hands.

[Waz]

Yeah. There's a lot of involved more than basketball, I want to say. Busy woman.

[Rob Mahoney]

As far as the fan base part of it goes, I thought Josh Beau of Mavs Moneyball made a point that I thought was really well stated, which is that part of what makes this really hard, if you're a Mavs fan, is that you. For this trade to be successful for the Mavs, you basically have to get like, Luka has to fail for this to be a maverick success. And this is the guy they've invested so much time, so much attention, so much like, fan adoration in, and now you have to actively root against that guy if you want the Mavericks to be good again.

[Bill Simmons]

I just don't get it. Just don't understand it.

[Rob Mahoney]

You and us and the rest of the NBA.

[Bill Simmons]

I just don't get it. And the sad thing is, at least for me, loves the Celtics. I think he's going to be awesome on the Lakers. I think the fans are going to love him.

[Waz]

Oh, my God.

[Bill Simmons]

There's always been a weird LeBron thing because he followed Kobe because he wasn't a Laker.

[Waz]

No baggage for Luca.

[Bill Simmons]

It's zero. It's like I had a couple people say to me that it was like their version of, like, when JFK got shot. Like, hearing the news. They'll remember. I mean, in a good way.

[Waz]

Damn.

[Bill Simmons]

No, no. In a good way where they'll always remember where they were. I was at dinner and I got a text. Like, it's like one of those trades that you.

[Rob Mahoney]

There are other points in history we could refer to other than JFK getting shot.

[Waz]

To me, it evoked the decision for me. Like, I'm going to remember exactly what.

[Bill Simmons]

But we knew the decision was coming.

[Rob Mahoney]

And we knew Miami was possible.

[Waz]

But I just remember looking at Stephen A.

[Bill Simmons]

Was on board.

[Waz]

LeBron is on the Miami Heat. This is Whip D. Wade and Chris.

[Rob Mahoney]

Bosh, brought to you by Vitamin Water.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, normally.

[Waz]

Normally when Jim Gray.

[Bill Simmons]

Normally when you remember where you were, it's usually because something terrible happened or something completely insane happened. Like, I remember where I watched the second Holyfield Tyson fight. You know, it was like, this is insane. I'll always remember this. But the Luca, out of nowhere, just hanging out on the couch with my wife, about to start a movie on a Saturday night. And then just trying to decipher what was real for 10 minutes. Like for 10 minutes trying to. And Sean's having to reassure people that the trade happened.

[Waz]

Telling the truth.

[Bill Simmons]

There's never going to be another moment like that because we had some other weird shit in the NBA this last decade. Like, we had that. A really fun one was the DeAndre Jordan to the Mavericks, and then he wasn't going to go.

[Rob Mahoney]

The crisis.

[Waz]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

The Anthony Davis. Not Anthony Davis. Kawhi Leonard.

[Waz]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Lakers or Clippers. And then on that Friday night, all of a sudden it was Paul George too. And. But never without warning.

[Waz]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And I think, like I was saying, people are making lists about was this the craziest sports trade ever? I'm not going to compare this to the Red Sox trading Babe Ruth to the Yankees. That's fucking crazy.

[Rob Mahoney]

Sure.

[Bill Simmons]

But it's certainly like since we've all been working together, the craziest thing that's happened. I think it's the craziest trade that's happened since I've had like a column or a podcast. So that's 30 years.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, it's also the craziest that you can't compare it to something like the Babe Ruth trade, for obvious reasons. But also, we are so trade pilled now.

[Waz]

Yeah. No trade makes, like, you would just say Jimmy Weller.

[Rob Mahoney]

Who cares?

[Waz]

I don't need to do an emergency podcast. Like, no trade shocks you like this.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, when a deal goes down, it's like, oh, we already know the three players who are probably involved for salary reasons. We've worked it out. It's been trade machined to death. If you're one of the apron teams, we basically already know what the deal is going to be by the time it's made. This was a complete shock.

[Waz]

In an inexplicable move, player for player, pick exchanged. Done.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yep, it's going to go great.

[Bill Simmons]

We had some good ones in the 90s and it kind of brought me back. Like, I remember being on the phone with House after they traded Chris Weber for Mitch Richmond. And he was just disconsolate. Even though Chris Weber was kind of a disaster on the Wizards, but it was still one of those trades where you just knew. The upside for us is we might win round one. And the downside is Chris Weber might go to the Kings and be awesome. He's like 25, and this was like a hundred times worse than that.

[Waz]

One of the, one of those, for me that I vaguely remember is the Knicks getting Sprewell because it was his first team after he choked out Jay Carlissimo. And it was like, wow, New York media was not behind the move. Just so you know. They weren't crazy about it, but, like, I just remember being like, damn, they got Sprewell. That's. That's nuts.

[Bill Simmons]

Couple questions from the chat before we go. Someone asks, how is LeBron going to handle not being the most popular guy on his own basketball team, which has never happened before.

[Waz]

So not being the most powerful guy. He is.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's a change.

[Waz]

He is less relevant. This is the first time he's been less relevant than somebody in his organization ever, besides Pat Riley. That's it. That's the only other time he's been on a team where there's a guy who's clearly above him in the pecking order in terms of, like, you can't tell ownership anything. Like, there's nothing you can do about this guy. Luka. Like, you, You're. You're irrelevant in comparison to Luka. Like, it's a. Luka. You're living in luka's world or LeBron.

[Bill Simmons]

Because of the way his brain works and the skills that he has. We'll just figure out an awesome way to be. Not quite a sidekick, but like a 1A, 1B type thing. This is.

[Waz]

Now we're a united front.

[Bill Simmons]

He'll treat this like a buddy cop movie, which was the way they tried to do it the first year with Wade in 2011.

[Rob Mahoney]

Join Media Availability.

[Bill Simmons]

Incredible in 2011. Like, those guys.

[Waz]

So good.

[Bill Simmons]

Those guys were equal as great players that year. LeBron was better the two years before. But. But I. You know, that was the last time we've seen at least somebody at the same length with them. I think it's interesting that it's a teammate that has a lot of the same bad habits. LeBron has. Luka not too interested in defense. LeBron uninterested in defense.

[Rob Mahoney]

He's been interested. What he's.

[Bill Simmons]

No. Right now age 40. Both of them can be 40 plus.

[Rob Mahoney]

Defense is optional. Like, that's just. That's one of the. One of the rules.

[Bill Simmons]

Both of them can be a little bit. Guys, I got it. Can you clear out for me at this stage of their careers how they navigate that? But I. I have no doubt that they're going to navigate it.

[Rob Mahoney]

But I think it's the discrepancy between these things where I think LeBron is still wildly more popular than Luka Doncic. Luka Doncic is a huge institution to basketball sickos like us.

[Waz]

Yes.

[Rob Mahoney]

To the outside world, it's not even comparable.

[Waz]

That won't be the case for very.

[Rob Mahoney]

That is true. So he is going to move.

[Bill Simmons]

Someone on the YouTube chat asked for trade grades before we go. Hunter to the Cavs. Cavs. What's the grade?

[Waz]

B. B.

[Rob Mahoney]

B, B, B for the Cavs.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think B is fair.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm going B plus. I like. Hunter for the Hawks.

[Waz]

B minus. I like. That's a nothing move. That's a backwards.

[Rob Mahoney]

I might go see. Just because I don't. I don't see the urgency of it.

[Bill Simmons]

Two second rounds, three second round picks, two swaps, D minus. Butler to Golden State. Golden State. I have a minus.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's fair.

[Waz]

A minus.

[Rob Mahoney]

Maybe even a solid A. Like, you have one objective and it's to make a Steph Curry team as good as you can.

[Waz]

When Jimmy's right, he's a star.

[Bill Simmons]

I said it wasn't a Hail Mary, but it was third and 13 to A.J. brown and double coverage.

[Waz]

100% is double coverage.

[Bill Simmons]

Let's hope A.J. brown gets patient play or pass interference. We're trying to get some sort of thing to happen for Miami. What do you got, Wesley?

[Waz]

Miami. This is A plus. Honestly, this is A plus. A plus. What were they gonna give for Jimmy, who no longer wants to be around them?

[Rob Mahoney]

I think for the Miami grade, you have to factor in the longer saga he's done. You have to trade him in the off season.

[Waz]

Okay, well, okay, we're factoring that.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think that's part of the deal.

[Waz]

Oh, then like they should.

[Rob Mahoney]

They should have traded last summer.

[Waz]

Yeah, indeed.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think. I think it's probably their handling of.

[Waz]

The Jimmy situation as a whole hole.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Waz]

Oh, D. F. I want to say.

[Rob Mahoney]

It'S a D. You got to go to summer school. And also, they might still be the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference by the end of the year. Like, I think both things are true.

[Waz]

But the deal is like, as the world exists right now.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Waz]

After Jimmy just tanked his value. After, like, you literally couldn't bring the guy back.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yep.

[Waz]

Okay. But like, no. The way they handled. Manage the Jimmy situation. F. Sorry, Pat.

[Bill Simmons]

A minus for the trade. F minus for the last six months for the trade. And F minus for Jimmy, too. Nobody. Nobody covered themselves in glory. Mark Williams to the Lakers. What do you got, Melanie? Lakers grade.

[Rob Mahoney]

B minus.

[Bill Simmons]

Woz?

[Waz]

B minus for me as well. I think they. They kind of jumped the gun on this one a little bit. For a guy who's very unproven, they.

[Rob Mahoney]

Clearly identified a player they really like and I like him too. I, I just am very spooked by his overall injury. Love the level of consistent injury concern with multiple parts of his body is concerned.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm going B plus. I think LeBron takes him under his wing, introduces him to the versa climber and some Pilates shit and all the other stuff LeBron does.

[Rob Mahoney]

But people say this about Christian Wood. They said like, we've had that.

[Bill Simmons]

Here's the thing though. I don't mind trading for injured, injured guys from shitty franchises. Although Charlotte seems like they've turned it around a little bit. But this is a guy. He's going from like worst possible franchise you could be on. Although they turned around with Charles Lee at least this year to now. Lakers big spotlight. But I'm going B plus just because he really jumped out of the TV the last few weeks. Like, he's good. He was noticeably impactful on both ends. Even though I'm not positive he knows what he's doing on defense. But he's big, he's got size. He leans on people. If he's around where the rebound is, he's getting it. Like, I just think he's a good player.

[Waz]

I want to say this too. Rob Link is not a good deal maker. But the Lakers, no, we can't say.

[Bill Simmons]

That anymore because he, he stole Luka Doncic from.

[Waz]

Stop it.

[Bill Simmons]

He Jedi mind tricks his buddy.

[Waz]

Stop it. Stop it. The Lakers ability to like recognize talent. Young people that have some level of talent more to give.

[Bill Simmons]

They're pretty good at that Charlotte grade. What do you got, Mara?

[Waz]

B plus.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm going to go just straight B, B plus. It's, it's. The only reason it's tough for me is like Charlotte is a team that should be betting on upside given where they are in their cycle. And so for them to.

[Waz]

They've had the guy in their building.

[Rob Mahoney]

They've, they've been through it. I give them that. But like, Dalton Connect is not an upside prospect.

[Waz]

Dalton Connect is older than Mark Wood.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's not what you want.

[Bill Simmons]

Not only is he older, he's like two, three years older. I think, I think he's like almost 25.

[Waz]

Yeah, he's, he's, he's, he's a senior citizen rookie.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm going. I really wanted to do a D minus but I'm going to go C minus because I think Mark Williams was hurting. Their plan to get Cooper flag at all costs when he's putting up 25 and 16 too good on certain nights. Too good to be off the roster.

[Rob Mahoney]

Got to get Yusuf Nurkic in there.

[Bill Simmons]

But you make the key point, like if you're a young up and coming team, you kind of want the 22 year old guy who's two years away from being a free agent, who's putting up huge stats.

[Rob Mahoney]

You can afford to see if he can get healthy if you're the Hornets, even more so than the Lakers can.

[Bill Simmons]

Frankly, my fear with the Lakers if I'm them is like, why is Charlotte trading this guy? It's like, hey, you want to buy my car?

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

No, it's going, it's running great. You see we just took. Here's some pictures of the road trip we just went on. Car's doing good. Next trade Brandon Engraft to Toronto. I'm going to start and for Toronto.

[Rob Mahoney]

It'S a D D, D minus D. I don't have any understanding of why this deal is happening.

[Bill Simmons]

Messiah flew too close to the sun.

[Waz]

With the title dude.

[Bill Simmons]

He's been the same since for New Orleans.

[Rob Mahoney]

They got New Orleans. If you told me a week ago he's got a first round pick for Brandon Ingram, I'm giving him a standing ovation. That's like an, that's a B plus, B plus for me.

[Bill Simmons]

Is Bruce Brown a bio guy and could he be a Denver nugget?

[Rob Mahoney]

Now we're talking. Now we're, now we're cooking.

[Bill Simmons]

I like Bruce Brown.

[Rob Mahoney]

I like Bruce Brown too. He started to put it together a little bit. Kelly Olynyk too. A player who I kind of thought might get rerouted by the actual deadline.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Rob Mahoney]

Also could be a buyout candidate, but they need bigs there, so maybe not.

[Bill Simmons]

Bruce Brown like athletic feature a month from now. Headline money isn't everything about Bruce Brown's tough last two years after winning the title. But it was, was it worth it.

[Rob Mahoney]

If he gets the money and still gets to go back to Denver?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, there you go.

[Rob Mahoney]

You get, you can have it all.

[Bill Simmons]

Middleton, Kuzma all start. Milwaukee. F plus, not quite enough minus. But an F plus because I've watched Kuzbo play basketball this year.

[Rob Mahoney]

I didn't know they gave F pluses.

[Waz]

I was beef for me.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, they got solid. The last Kuzma fan solidly beat.

[Rob Mahoney]

What are you living on?

[Waz]

I think Kuzma one. He like looks like a crazy person with the way he dresses and the hair and the tattoos. He's actually a pretty grounded dude.

[Rob Mahoney]

He posts about RFK Jr. All the time.

[Bill Simmons]

This is your grounded dude.

[Waz]

A lot of reasonable people are RFK heads. Believe it or not.

[Bill Simmons]

Like, sorry, fluoride.

[Waz]

We don't. We don't. We don't. Look, we don't have to agree with everybody who loves our. Even if we don't, I'm not the.

[Rob Mahoney]

Person propping up Kyle Kuzma as the voice of moderation.

[Bill Simmons]

I know after two hours, we'd end.

[Waz]

Up in a Kyle Kuzma fan basketball. Kuz is going to get it done.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. All right. I mean, when you miss 73% of your threes, what's not to love? Trade grades. Did we do New Orleans for this? Yeah, we did. So then I guess Phoenix would be the other one. Nurkic. Getting rid of Nurkic using one of your dumb firsts that you gave up the 2031 first for getting your fans excited about. Martin, who's like the 19th swing you've had. Who's like a defense shooter guy.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm indifferent.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

How about this? No grade.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, no grade is fine.

[Waz]

Not applicable.

[Rob Mahoney]

Did not register.

[Bill Simmons]

And then Memphis, whatever the hell they did with Marcus Smart.

[Rob Mahoney]

And just like, clearing out players incomplete. Who could help them?

[Waz]

I don't understand, like, just giving up on Marcus Smart being a playoff contributor. If you think. If you have designs on being a serious player there, maybe his injuries are so cooked that they don't think he'll be on the floor anyway. That's the only thing that makes sense.

[Rob Mahoney]

They are a potential buyout team because they're not over the aprons. So cleared to roster spots have some potential there.

[Waz]

You've already been on the phone with some folks.

[Rob Mahoney]

Maybe so I want to say I saw it pop up that I think they took back Marvin Bagley, Marcus Smart to the Celtics.

[Bill Simmons]

Are we allowed to buy out? We're not allowed to get by.

[Rob Mahoney]

I don't believe so. I think they're over the second apron, so no buyouts.

[Waz]

Way too.

[Bill Simmons]

The apron just ruins everything, by the.

[Rob Mahoney]

Way, except gave us the weirdest, craziest trade deadline in the history of the league.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, you're probably right. Wait, Sacramento, San Antonio.

[Rob Mahoney]

The Fox for Fox.

[Bill Simmons]

I have an A plus for San Antonio and, like a C for Sacramento and then F for Chicago.

[Waz]

Yeah, solid A for San Antonio.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yep, I'm there.

[Waz]

I think B for Sacramento. Like, I don't know. I thought the hall was good. The Bulls, what they got back for lavine and just making themselves a part of this trade. Like, I called it a hill of beans. Rob said it was a stump of beans.

[Rob Mahoney]

Something less than a hill.

[Bill Simmons]

What was the Vince Carter trade when Toronto got back? Like, Alonzo Mourning, but he had kidney issues. Yes.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

With Eric William and then some other terrible contract and like, two bad firsts when the. It's always bad when you're taking the bad contracts back in a trade.

[Rob Mahoney]

And for the only benefit being your own pick that you were going to keep anyway because your team is bad. The pick was protected like you were.

[Bill Simmons]

Going to keep it.

[Waz]

The pick was top 10 protected.

[Rob Mahoney]

So, yeah, F for the Bulls, what.

[Waz]

They got was, yo, take the projection off. We're one of the five worst teams in the league.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think the Kings did all right. I'm going to give the Kings, like, a solid B, especially under the circumstances. They didn't have a lot to work under.

[Waz]

Duress.

[Rob Mahoney]

Under duress.

[Bill Simmons]

Before we go, Luka Doncic getting traded. What's your best Luka Doncic trade that you think would have been a better trade for Dallas than the trade they made?

[Rob Mahoney]

Player for player, I think it's gotta be a pack. It would have to be like a Houston hall or a Memphis Hall.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Waz]

The only thing that would have made people happy was six years of picks, you know, owning somebody's draft picks from now till Timbuktu and some young guys that are nice. So, I don't know. Houston making the money work. Amen. Thompson. Bunch of picks in the future.

[Bill Simmons]

Can't keep him in Texas, though.

[Rob Mahoney]

You can't like sending him to the Lakers.

[Bill Simmons]

Trade them to your Texas are out. You can't keep them in Texas. Who says no? Who says no? Tatum, Luca. If, you know Dallas is trading Luca. I don't.

[Rob Mahoney]

I don't think. I don't think Boston would do it.

[Bill Simmons]

I agree. I just wanted to make sure I was.

[Waz]

It's. I mean, obviously Luca's a much better player, but karmically, that's just a. That's a disgusting move.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's almost like if you go to the Finals, don't blow up the superstar core of the team that just went, you know, like, that's what a crazy thought.

[Waz]

Like you leaving your wife with Sydney Sweeney.

[Bill Simmons]

You're trying to get a reaction.

[Waz]

Everybody would think that was insane of you.

[Bill Simmons]

Come on. Bam. And hero. And every Miami pick for Luka on a contract I don't like.

[Waz]

I don't like that.

[Rob Mahoney]

But you know what I would like is listening to all these offers. I would love, if I were the Mavericks, to sit there and actually field them.

[Waz]

I was like, would Minnesota trade and Edwards for Luka Doncic?

[Rob Mahoney]

I would 100% love and Edwards. I would absolutely trade him for Luka.

[Bill Simmons]

But the problem is, if you're trading for Luka, you also have to factor in will he want to stay in a year and a half.

[Waz]

That's the thing. That's what Nico Harrison's trying to say, guys, about all of these picks and all these great trades that were out there. That's what Nico Harrison is trying to explain to you.

[Rob Mahoney]

What he's trying to explain is the defense wins championships.

[Bill Simmons]

Apparently the only one that makes sense from a basketball standpoint that I think would have been six hour meetings on both sides is Giannis. Yeah, yeah, for both sides. And I get. If you're Milwaukee, you probably don't do it because it's like, well, why would Luka re sign here in a year and a half and you trade. But fundamentally for what he wanted from the trade, which was size and rim protection. Giannis is the better version of Davis.

[Waz]

All NBA MVP kind of guy win.

[Bill Simmons]

Now I still feel like if this trade was Reeves, Davis, 29 and 31.

[Rob Mahoney]

In two swaps, different conversation.

[Bill Simmons]

It's still not enough, but at least it's like, oh, I see it. They don't feel like they can resign them.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

That's a lie.

[Waz]

Stupid combo.

[Bill Simmons]

Whatever they got, wasn't it thanks to Michelobatra. They sponsored our little YouTube live thingy. A superior light beer, the official beer sponsor of the NBA.

[Rob Mahoney]

Also, we should say happy birthday to was.

[Waz]

Thank you today. Today. Today's my birthday.

[Rob Mahoney]

Happy birthday to our colleague Sir Sohi as well.

[Bill Simmons]

We got you, Kyle Kuzma.

[Waz]

Oh, yeah. Shouts to Sirasohi, my birthday twin. We never get our love. Yes. We never get our love in the ring or slack on the birthday love. So we're doing it right now live on the Bill Simmons trade deadline special.

[Bill Simmons]

Wow, what a weird way to end the pod. Happy birthday. What happens tonight? You and Luka just going out, just making bad food and drink choices.

[Waz]

Going out for steaks tonight. So yeah, man, that'll be it. Just a steak dinner. That's my birthday today.

[Rob Mahoney]

Hell yeah.

[Waz]

That's actually what I do every birthday.

[Bill Simmons]

What part of Los Angeles do you think Luka Doncic will live in with the limited information you have about things that he likes?

[Rob Mahoney]

I like this as like a personality test. Yeah.

[Waz]

Ooh. Things that he. I mean, realistically, he should move to Beverly Hills. Cause it's close to all the things that he's going to like socially. It's not gonna be in Beverly Hills itself, but Beverly Hills is adjacent to where a lot of these things happen. So yeah.

[Rob Mahoney]

What's the hookah?

[Waz]

Somewhere in the hookah. Proximity is close.

[Rob Mahoney]

Okay.

[Waz]

Somewhere in the Beverly. The hills of Beverly Hills. Because Brentwood is too far from the action, to be honest with you. Brentwood is too far. Bel Air is too. Is a little bit too secluded as well. What's another one that. Folks, he's clearly not an East Sider. He's not going to move with the freaking Hollywood east side people. I think he's a Beverly Hills guy.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. Caveat. They practice in o Segundo. He's 25, has mentioned the beach in the ocean a couple times.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yes.

[Waz]

So I guess that is a Brent. Brent. Brentwood is, you know, you get the crib and you get to be closer to the ocean. I don't think he moves like, what are you thinking? Like, Manhattan beach type of thing.

[Bill Simmons]

I was wondering, could he be like, where the. Like, that's where the hockey players live, right? The LA Kings live in, like, Manhattan. Hermosa Rossillo's there.

[Waz]

Luke is not a hockey guy. He's. He's a different. He's. He's an NBA guy. Let's just put it like that.

[Bill Simmons]

I see him in the Bay for a year while he figures it out.

[Waz]

I. I don't think he's.

[Bill Simmons]

Do you think you run into Luka Doncic in LA at 2 in the morning at a club in the next two months? Yes.

[Rob Mahoney]

You think so?

[Bill Simmons]

Yes.

[Waz]

And maybe not a club, but, like, you know, one of the. You know, one of the things my guys at H would do. I could see him being an h. Wood guy 100%.

[Rob Mahoney]

I have to take your word for it, 100%.

[Waz]

Do you think it's not going to be like a nightclub, loud music, blah, blah, blah, but like, you know, like a lounge. Leo's going to be there.

[Bill Simmons]

Is there a world where Luca lives with Rob and his wife?

[Rob Mahoney]

If Rob moved to la, how does that.

[Bill Simmons]

Rob just. Rob gets the guest house in the back. Would it be. Would it be ethical or unethical for you to live in the guest house of Luka Doncic's Brentwood estate?

[Rob Mahoney]

I think I would officially have to give up my awards vote if I'm living in Luka Doncic house.

[Waz]

Listen, the person.

[Bill Simmons]

That's fair. I'm glad you're open about it.

[Waz]

There are media members in LA who that's open to, but they do not work for the Ring of Dot Com. I promise you that.

[Rob Mahoney]

We stand up for journalism here.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, we try.

[Rob Mahoney]

You know, everyone but conspiracy.

[Waz]

We're going to be holding these guys.

[Rob Mahoney]

Feet to the fire, speaking truth to power. Maybe living in their guest house.

[Bill Simmons]

Guys, I had a blast. Happy Birthday Wise.

[Waz]

Thank you.

[Bill Simmons]

Thanks to everybody behind the scenes and thanks to everybody who listens. Thanks for the questions too. We're going to take a break. I'm going to come back with Million Dollar Super Bowl Picks. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Life's always changing. One season you're trying to break personal records and the next you're just looking for a solid routine. Peloton is here for all of it. With workouts that flex to fit your schedule. Whatever it looks like you've got options from four week strength programs to running, cycling and everything in between. Peloton's got the tools to adapt to whatever goal you're chasing in this season of your life. And here's the real kicker. With Peloton's All Access membership, you can work out wherever you need to at home on the bike, tread or row or even on the go with the app. Take your favorite classes with you to the gym, on the road, wherever. So whatever you're aiming for that 5am Club or squeezing in a late night session, Peloton is ready whenever you are. Find your push, find your power with peloton at 1peloton.com all right, million Dollar Picks Super bowl edition presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. We don't have House this week because he is in New Orleans. He's hanging out with Sal and with Van and all these ringer dudes, the fantasy guys and it just hurts my feelings. He didn't have time for us. I'm going to carry on. I have a bunch of stuff I like, but I wanted to talk big picture about what I was seeing from the game because I stared at this game, I don't know for 10 days and I just kept thinking Philly has more talent, Philly has more talent. Philly's better all over the place. The only things that you wouldn't give Philly the advantage are coaching QB pedigree in late game crunch time situations. So I thought I was going to take Philly for about a week and then I thought about more and more. I went to the playoff gambling manifesto. I looked at all the rules. Rule number one first rule, beware of the looked a little too good. The previous playoff round team that was Philly going against this Washington team that already was probably lucky to make the conference title game to begin with and then had a couple big injuries and Philly looked awesome. Rule number five beware of the everybody believes in US team and then nobody believes in our QB but US team. So KC's a little bit of the everybody believes in US team. Just because everybody's like Casey, you can't go against Mahomes. Philly's got a touch of the nobody believes in our QB but US stuff. Although I don't know. Hertz is making 50 million a year and he gets taken high in fantasy drafts and people know he's good. So KC a little bit. Philly a little bit. But I'm not too sold on any of them. Rule number 10, when in doubt, gravitate toward one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts and would definitely go against the single worst gambler. You know, again, there's some Casey stuff I still feel with people, just the infrastructure. 3p don't go against Mahomes. I still feel like when we get closer to game time, I think this line's going to move. I think it's going to move toward Philly. Right now it's still KC minus one and a half. So I don't think this comes into play. There is a prop that I want to hit when we do props that I think qualifies for rule number 10. Rule number 16. Take one last look at the quarterbacks and remember there's plenty of time to bait against any QB or coach except for the super bowl where you don't have a lot of time. Take one last look at the quarterbacks. Mahomes hurts. What happens in a three point game with nine minutes left and Casey's down three and they have the ball and they're driving and you realize you bet on Philly and you didn't have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. You just have to factor that in. And you also have to factor in rule number seven. 17. Don't try to be a hero, just try to win money. The hero move is to take Philly and to say this has been the best team. When you think about it, they only had three losses. They could have. They were three plays away basically from being undefeated for the season. They're loaded everywhere. They're going to lay the smackdown and the only reason you're not going to take them is because of Mahomes and Reed. The counter is Kasey has just been spectacular at winning close games against teams where they do all the little things correctly and they make the little coaching decisions correctly and they always get one little break around halftime when the other team does something stupid. And maybe there's a bad Special teams player. They get one fumble, they always kind of hang around, hang around, hang around and take care of business in the fourth quarter like they did with Buffalo. Mahomes is 173 in the playoffs career. He's 17 and 0 in the last 171 score games. That 0 means no losses. This team just takes care of business all the time over and over again. Meanwhile, Philly their best wins this year. Green Bay twice, Washington they went 2 and 1. Baltimore they beat by five and Cincy. So the record is awesome, the stats are awesome. The fact that they're three plays away from being undefeated is notable. Their defense has looked great and yet you can make the case. KC has just had a much tougher schedule, a much bigger bullseye in them and over and over again has delivered. So I was trying to think I always try to do this for the Super Bowl. I do scenarios best case, worst case because I started leaning toward the Chiefs over the weekend. Best case scenario comparing the Chiefs to Brady and the Pats because I think there's a lot of similarities including the infrastructure, the coach, the experience in big games, all the veterans. You have just the ability to just pull out these close games over and over again. What Brady super bowl win would this be like for Mahomes? And I settled on Patriots 28, Seattle 24. Ironically 10 year anniversary of that game this week. Really great YouTube clip that the Patriots put up with all this extended audio and video stuff from the game. I watched the whole thing. I made my dad watch it. I think it's probably my favorite Patriots win of all the wins it has, the Malcolm Butler game. Anyway, they're down 10, they win the game by four, 28 to 24. It was a pick em line. So similar to this 47 for the over under pretty close to this. It was a game that had 10 punts, three turnovers, seven touchdowns and a field goal. So 10 possessions on each side. That feels a little similar to what I think the game's going to go on Sunday. Patriots couldn't really run the ball 21 for 57 running it, but 37 for 50 for 328 passing. That feels like what's going to happen in this game for them. I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball that well against the Eagles and I think the Eagles are going to try to try to push them to do short medium passes. Just keep trying to move the ball downfield and eventually we're either going to get a sack or a tip or we'll break Up a place, something. But just take your time going down the field. Seattle on the other side in that game, 29 for 162 from the run for the run, which kind of feels like what might happen with Barkley. They were 12 for 21 passing for 247. That feels in the ballpark of what usually happens within a hertz Eagles game. The Pats were 8 for 13 on third down. Big time of possession for them, 33, 46 because it was a lot of the short, medium completions that just kept the clock moving. Brady ended up 37, 50 for 328. So close game. They had to throw the ball lap because they weren't able to run it. And then they took care of business down the stretch and then Malcolm Butler came up with the most famous play in the history of the Super Bowl. I think that if the Chiefs win, I don't think it's a big win. I don't think they win by 10 plus I think the game is tight in the fourth quarter and they pull it out. All right. What would be the the worst version of the game for the Chiefs? What bad Mahomes loss would this be like? That's obvious. That's Bucks 31, Chiefs nine. That was the Super bowl result. Casey favored by three. They ran the ball a little bit in that game. 17 for 107, 26 for 49 passing. Mahomes is okay, but he had a couple turnovers and then Tampa ran the ball on them. 33 for 145. Only eight incompletions for Brady. No turnovers, took a big lead, held them off. Took over the game in the second half with their pass rush and Casey just couldn't do anything. Nine points. I'm a little scared of that result for this and I think if you're taking, if you're taking the Eagles, you're almost better off taking them by 10 plus that's the. They're not. I don't think winning a close game against Mahomes in the Chiefs in the fourth quarter, which makes me think if you're taking the Eagles, just take the -9 and a half at +350 and get some juice on it and root for a game like that bucks game, the 31 to 9 game. I am looking at this as a Chiefs win and a nail biter of a game. There's some advantages for the Eagles number two in limiting explosive plays according to Sho Kapadia. Really good tackling team. And then they have that recipe that used to work against Brady in the past and I think the Eagles have it where you just rush the four. They're constantly pushing the pocket and then you have the other seven guys can basically be doing all kinds of, you know, are they blitzing, are they bouncing back? Are they pretending to blitz and then blitzing? That's what used to frustrate Mahomes. So I, I Brady. So I feel like there's some recipe stuff here but ultimately I just can't take, I can't take Hertz over Mahomes and I can't take Sirianni against Reed. And if anything has taught us about this Chiefs team over the years, they just benefit from dumb shit from the other teams or just the play he shouldn't have made. The moment that you can't believe this happened and it just, it always works out for them. I'm not going to talk about the refs. So here's what I'm doing for million dollar picks. We lost 211,000 last week. We are still up $1.071 million for the season. I'm going to try to double it. We're going to bet 500k in the Chiefs minus one and a half. We're going to bet a 250k parlay. Listen to this one. Eagles plus eight and a half. Mahomes 200 plus passing yards under 60.5 points. So it's a little bit of a hedge against that Chiefs minus one and a half because I think the game's going to be close and I'm going to try to middle it with that parlay and that parlay is dead even on Fanduel. So doing those two and then 50k on the following Super Bowl. Props ready? Hurts anytime. Touchdown. Minus 115. I just @ some point the tush push is happening near the goal line. That's just the way this goes. Mahomes over five and a half carries minus 128. You go back, you look at all the Super Bowl. Sal and I talked about this on the Super Bowl. Props. He uses his legs in every big game and even if he doesn't get the five and a half carries, it's five instead of five and a half. So the odds are in your favor on this. Especially if they're going to rush for and he's going to be able to scramble around and buy himself some time. Think about the Eagles defense. If they get a little tired in the fourth quarter, who knows. I just think he gets the six carries. I like that a little more than the yards because the yards, if they had the lead, the kneel down, start cutting in the yard total. Not doing that. Mahomes over 11 and a half yards for biggest rush. Taking that. I'm also taking Hertz over 11 and a half yards for his biggest rush. Figure one of those guys is rushing for 12 yards. Maybe hit both. Worst case scenario, you split them. Chris Jones sack plus 136. We talked about this on Sunday. Line pushes forward, Hertz holds the ball, holds it too long and then all of a sudden Jones gets them. Both teams get a fourth down conversion minus 124. I think there's probably going to be a point in this game where both teams have to get a little bit aggressive because they're going to be worried about what happens if the other team gets the ball back. So even fourth and ones, fourth and twos, I just think both teams are getting a fourth down conversion. And then we have a boost on FanDuel that I'm just going to jump on for 50K. Casey wins Mahomes over 225 yards of passing, which you can use the profit boost token and go nuts on. And then I have some small 25k Super bowl props. Mahomes 40 plus rush yards is plus 180. I like that one because if I'm betting on his rush over, I might as well just go for it and think he's going to go like 8 for 45. Whatever. Eagles first half. Eagles to win the first half. Chiefs to win the game plus 750. This is the cousin south special. Can see it happening. So we're putting 25k on it. I think this is going to be a tight game. I do not think the Chiefs run away with this by any means. That I could totally see the Eagles winning in the first half. So we'll fly on that. And last but not least, going back to the manifesto, no BARKLEY Touchdown is plus 150. And at FanDuel they were saying, I heard through the grapevine this is the least bet super bowl prop. So you want to have the prop that everyone is betting the other side on +1 50. We're putting 25k on that. And those are the million dollar picks. Super bowl edition. Don't forget Sunday night, me and cousin Sal, at some point after the super bowl ends, we will be going, we will be going full tilt on everything that happened in the game. We're not going live on YouTube but it will be on this podcast. We'll get the video up as fast as possible on YouTube. So there you go. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Sarudi and Gahao for producing. Don't forget you can watch all the videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. You can also check out the Rewatchables on The Ringer Movies YouTube channel or on the Rewatchables feed we did Before Sunset. We have a monster movie coming on Monday, a movie that was always on the short list, so stay tuned for that. I'm not going to tell you what it is. You don't need to know what it is because you've seen it. So there you go. I will be back on Sunday after the Super Bowl. We're not going live, but we will be doing a Super bowl reaction pod with Cousin Sal, the final podcast of the year. Don't forget to consume all of our NFL content on the Ringer Podcast network. On the ringer.com, we're doing some great stuff. We have a bunch of people down in New Orleans. Enjoy the weekend. Enjoy the game. See you Sunday. On the Wayside must be 21 + and President select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + in President D.C. gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplianma. Org or call 800-327-5for24. 7 support Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York.