San Antonio Gets Fox, Luka-Lakers Day Two Angles, and Super Bowl Props With Kirk Goldsberry and Cousin Sal

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast – Episode Summary

Title: San Antonio Gets Fox, Luka-Lakers Day Two Angles, and Super Bowl Props With Kirk Goldsberry and Cousin Sal
Host: Bill Simmons, The Ringer
Guests: Kirk Goldsberry, Cousin Sal
Release Date: February 3, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, host Bill Simmons engages in deep conversations with NBA analyst Kirk Goldsberry and longtime contributor Cousin Sal. The discussions center around the monumental NBA trades involving the San Antonio Spurs acquiring Darren Fox and Luka Doncic's unprecedented move to the Los Angeles Lakers. Additionally, the podcast delves into an extensive analysis of Super Bowl 59 betting props, offering listeners insider insights and strategic betting advice.

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San Antonio Spurs Acquire Darren Fox

Timestamp: 05:04
Bill Simmons: "So why didn't they give up more picks to get Darren Fox, who I had number 20 on my trade value list."

Timestamp: 05:10
Kirk Goldsberry: "Because I didn't have to, was the short answer. They gave up some draft capital, obviously. I think those are some nice picks they gave up, but I expected maybe to see Devin Vassell's name, maybe see Jeremy Sochan's name."

Key Points:

• Shift to "Win Mode": Kirk explains that the Spurs are transitioning from a rebuilding phase to a competitive "win mode," signaling a significant paradigm shift for the franchise.
• Trade Value: The acquisition of Darren Fox is seen as a strategic move, where the Spurs managed to secure a young, high-impact point guard without relinquishing excessive draft assets.
• Team Composition: The addition of Fox complements Victor Wembanyama, enhancing both offense and defense. Kirk highlights that Fox's offensive prowess pairs well with Wemby's unique skill set, creating a formidable duo.

Quote: Kirk Goldsberry (05:29): "San Antonio now has this. They gave up the 2031 Minnesota first, which hurts. They got Zach Levine, who I think we both really like this year. I actually think he's an asset."

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Luka Doncic Trade to the Los Angeles Lakers

Timestamp: 24:37
Kirk Goldsberry: "Like everybody else, this is hacked. It's embarrassing for Shams. I can't believe that the hacker didn't come up with a realistic trade."

Timestamp: 28:20
Bill Simmons: "It's like, yeah, or Moses Malone. But those. Like, we knew those guys were getting traded."

Key Points:

• Unprecedented Trade: Bill and Kirk categorize the Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers as the most shocking and unprecedented in NBA history, surpassing even mega deals like Shaquille O'Neal to Miami or Kevin Durant to the Suns.
• Trade Evaluation: The duo discusses the reasoning behind the Mavericks' decision, questioning the logic of trading a generational talent like Doncic for what many perceive as insufficient assets.
• Impact on Lakers and Mavericks: While the Lakers aim to bolster their championship aspirations with Doncic and Anthony Davis, the Mavericks face significant uncertainty without their star player, sparking theories and frustrations among fans.

Quote: Bill Simmons (28:30): "This has never happened before. This is the first. Did the reporter get hacked? Megatrade."

Timestamp: 54:52
Bill Simmons: "Anthony Davis anchored a finals team in 2020 that won it all. Defense wins championships."

Key Points:

• Defense vs. Offense: The conversation emphasizes the importance of Anthony Davis's defensive capabilities in winning championships, contrasting it with the Mavericks' offensive-centric approach with Doncic.
• Future Prospects: Kirk and Bill contemplate the Lakers' potential trajectory with Doncic, LeBron James, and Davis, weighing the risks and rewards of integrating such high-caliber talent.

Quote: Kirk Goldsberry (22:12): "The dude is, you know, lightning. He's one of the faster players with the ball in his hand in the league."

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Super Bowl 59 Betting Props Analysis

Timestamp: 75:15
Cousin Sal: "I love the Gary Russell Special. It’s led to a marriage. What’s next?"

Timestamp: 85:18
Kirk Goldsberry: "He had two touchdowns all year. I was like, why is this only minus 150?"

Key Points:

• Prop Bets Breakdown: Cousin Sal and Bill Simmons delve into various Super Bowl betting propositions, analyzing their viability and offering recommendations based on recent performances and statistics.
• Highlighted Bets:
  • MVP Bets: Analysis of Saquon Barkley at +280, discussing his potential impact and likelihood of securing the MVP title.
  • Player Performance: Evaluations of Travis Kelce's reception yards and Chester "Mateo" Kelsey’s possible touchdowns, considering their season performances.
  • Game Dynamics: Consideration of team strategies, such as Chiefs' rushing patterns and Eagles' defensive setups, influencing the outcome of specific prop bets.
• Strategic Advice: The hosts provide listeners with insights into maximizing their betting strategies, suggesting which props offer the best value and why certain outcomes are more probable based on team behaviors and player form.

Quote: Bill Simmons (85:18): "The Barkley bets that jumped out to you are really tough. If you take in the Eagles..."

Timestamp: 100:25
Cousin Sal: "It's phenomenal. Chris Jones' sack is a must-bet."

Key Points:

• Player-Specific Props: Focus on individual player performances, such as Chris Jones' sack count and Travis Kelce's receiving yards, evaluating their consistency and potential impact on the game's outcome.
• Fan Engagement: The discussion encourages listeners to participate in the betting pool and utilize FanDuel’s platform for a more engaging Super Bowl experience.

Quote: Cousin Sal (100:25): "Chris Jones' sack is a plus 136. So what do we know from the Eagles? Hertz will go back, and if it's not there, he holds it on too long."

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Conclusion

The episode offers a comprehensive analysis of two of the most significant NBA trades of the year, providing listeners with expert insights into their implications for the teams involved and the broader NBA landscape. Additionally, the deep dive into Super Bowl 59 prop bets equips fans with the knowledge to make informed betting decisions, blending sports analysis with practical betting strategies. Bill Simmons, alongside Kirk Goldsberry and Cousin Sal, delivers a mix of strategic discussions and entertaining banter, making it a must-listen for sports enthusiasts.

Notable Takeaways:

• The Spurs' acquisition of Darren Fox marks a pivotal shift towards competitiveness, potentially reshaping their future in the NBA.
• Luka Doncic's trade to the Lakers is a historic move that raises numerous questions about team strategy and player valuation.
• Super Bowl 59 prop bets offer lucrative opportunities for bettors, with detailed analysis enhancing the betting experience.

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This summary captures the essence of the episode, highlighting key discussions and providing a structured overview for those who haven't listened to the podcast.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

Coming up, second pot of the weekend. Let's talk more Luka. Let's talk super bowl props. Next, it's the Bill Simmons podcast, presented by FanDuel. Super Bowl 59 is here and you can bet on America's number one game with America's number one sportsbook any way you want. Fun markets, who have the most yards, tons of same game parlays, offensive titties in the next drive. So much more. It's the most fun thing about the super bowl for me. Other than watching the game. I love the super bowl props. You can also check out their super bowl squares. Pick your own numbers and make your pick for a kick of Destiny 3 between the Manning brothers. I'm picking Peyton Manning every time because Eli Manning took two Super Bowls from me so he can screw off. When you win, you'll get paid instantly. Download the app today and bet the big game with FanDuel. An official sportsbook partner of Super Bowl 59. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of this episode for additional details. Must be 21 + in President Select States GAM problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com this episode is brought to you by State Farm. State Farm helps you score an affordable price when you choose to bundle home and auto insurance with the personal price plan. Bundling home and auto, that's a pro move. Just another way you can save on your insurance needs. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts, and savings and eligibility vary by state. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed it, Ryan Rossillo, Rob Hoeni and I On Saturday night, out of nowhere, Luka Doncic gets traded to the Lakers for Anthony Davis and other stuff. And we just hopped right on. We did a podcast. You can find it on YouTube and the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. You can find on Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. So this is the second podcast of the week. We'll get to that in a second. Don't Forget, Super Bowl 59 is happening. It's all happening on FanDuel too. You can opt in and bet on a player to score an anytime touchdown. If they score the first touchdown of the game, they win their anytime TD bet and split 2.5 million in bonus bets with everyone else who used their token on that player. So if you use it on like AJ Brown scores first touchdown the game 10,000 people use their token on AJ Brown. Each customer gets, I don't know, $250 in bonus bets. That's how it would play out. If the player scores the last TD of the game, the customer wins their anytime TD bet and splits the 2.5 million in bonus bets with everyone else who used their token on that player. You are going to hear Cousin Sal and I talking about all of our favorite super bowl props. So we're going to hit this one specifically as well. My favorite anytime td. Pick a whole bunch of other stuff that's coming up in a second. Be sure to check out FanDuel's Super bowl touchdown Jackpot and all the ringer specials. Just look for it in the FanDuel sportsbook app. So remember, Sal and I come in later with our annual super bowl props. We did not expect that to be the second segment on this podcast because I'm bringing in Kurt Goldsberry. There's just some extra stuff since that trade happened last night. You know, we're reacting to that trade in real time now. It's Sunday afternoon PT and we've learned a lot, we've read a lot, we've heard a lot, we've talked to some people and we're going to lay down a second set of thoughts a day removed from the most shocking trade, I think, in NBA history. So Kurt Goldsberry next, then Cousin Sal doing Super bowl props first. Once again, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, Kirk Goldsberry is here. We are taping this a little before 6:00 PT on Sunday night. I invited Kirk to talk about day two of the Luka Doncic Lakers trade because we covered it last night. A whole bunch more to discuss. More meat on the bone. But as we were preparing to the pot, of course there was another major trade that included a team Kirk used to work for, the San Antonio Spurs. Fox to the Spurs, Levine to Sacramento with some picks. Chicago basically gets their 2025 pick back and take some some contracts. And the headline, Kirk, is that San Antonio did not give up a lot for Dear and Fox.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

So why they're in a different regime. I think they're in they're officially now built in try to win mode, which is sort of a big paradigm shift for the San Antonio spurs that have been in rebuild mode but now they're to try to win mode. I Think this is the symbolic threshold of a team that's ready to compete.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, so why didn't they give up more picks to get Darren Fox, who I had number 20 on my trade value list.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Because I didn't have to, was the short answer. They gave up some draft capital, obviously. I think those are some nice picks they gave up, but I expected maybe to see Devin Vassell's name, maybe see Jeremy Sohan's name. I think, yeah, you're right. The headline is that none of those guys as we have right now are included in this deal.

[Bill Simmons]

So they kept Wemby Fox, they added Vassell Castle, who I think was a non starter. Socan, Harrison Barnes, Kelton Johnson. CP3. Champagne? Yeah, pretty nice. Nine now. CP3 coming off the bench. Maybe you play him with fox. We've seen CP3 in OKC. He was playing with Schroeder and with SGA. Like he weirdly knows how to play with other small guards. If I'm a Spurs fan, I'm out of my mind that this was the trade because that's right. They gave up the 27 spurs first. I don't care. I have Wemby. I'm going to be one of the best 10 teams in the league in 27. They gave up the 2031 Minnesota first, which hurts. That might be a real pick. They got this. They gave up this 2025 Charlotte pick that is basically one through 14 protected and is going to turn into two seconds. And Sacramento gets two first five seconds. And they get Zach Levine, who I think we both really like this year. I actually think he's an asset.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I love it. But again, they don't have a North Star. The Sacramento Kings have been like this my whole life. I don't know what they're trying to do now. They reunited the great Derozan Levine duo.

[Bill Simmons]

They reunited an 8th seed for multiple.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Years from the East East Coast. 8 seed is back for vengeance this time.

[Bill Simmons]

Vuchet feel feeling left out. Come on, guys. We could have gone 43 and 39 together. Why am I still in Chicago?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, for me the story here is in San Antonio, Bill, the Spurs have a sort of a stopgap point guard. And Chris Paul, who's been great. Harrison Barnes has been great. But this is a player in Fox that is a young, great offensive weapon that I think will pair very well with Victor Wembanyama. This is a team that I think was going to have a very high defensive ceiling just because of Victor for years to come. But the offense was the Question mark. This helps them address that. And now I think it's like we have Victor at the 5, we have Fox at the 1. Let's surround 2, 3 and 4 with defense and shooting. And I think there's a clear team building project in front of them that they, they, they are thrilled to have. It's a pretty simple problem now as opposed to a bigger problem.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. And they still have a bunch of picks. They have the two, three, four spots, a lot of length, some potential shooting, although they haven't been shooting the ball this year. But ultimately you're hoping there's going to be some shooting and, and they protected their nucleus and they still have another trade to make. I still feel like the only, the only, like, no way they're trading these guys on the spurs would be Wemby now Fox and Castle and everyone else is still in play for me. And they have contracts they can put together. They're not going to trade for Jimmy Butler, but if, you know, he was a little more enticing, that's the type of trade maybe they could trade for Luka Doncic if he fails his physical in the Lakers and it turns out he's £290. But this is an awesome trade for them. In my head, this was a four or five firsts and probably Sochan or Vassell in it seemed like that was it. But I guess if you're the spurs, you're like, look, man, we're not giving up a lot for this dude. He wants to come here anyway. He's from Texas. We'll just get him in a year and a half. So we can do this now and you'll get some stuff or we'll just wait. We're on no rush. We're not going to win the title. One thing Eddie Johnson said in my pod on Thursday I thought was a great ex basketball player. Point was about Fox as a lefty with Wemby as a righty versus Fox as a lefty with Sabonis as a lefty, which I thought was cool. But I like the idea of Fox, you know, not great when players push their way out of a team. But, you know, he gave him a heads up. I'm not going to resign here. He's been pretty clear about that for the whole season. He picked San Antonio. He picks this whole Wemby circus that will become a circus in a good way because you're attaching yourself to one of the, you know, generational superstars in the league. You fit in nicely with him now you throw Those lobs. It's a righty, as Eddie was pointing out. And it just feels like an incredible career move for Fox. It really does. It's like, wow. I totally get what you're thinking here.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I mean, obviously we had the big piece on Victor on the ringer last week. I went all in on this guy and then he had a great game in Paris right after. So I felt good. But everybody around the league is seeing the same thing that we are, Bill Dear and Fox among them. This is a superstar in the, in the Ringer 100. He's gone from number 67 to number six in less than two years. You had him as the number one trade value asset in the league.

[Bill Simmons]

Do you agree with that?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Of course. I mean, he's 21, he's a 25 point a game scorer and he's the best defender in the league and he's. This is the worst Victor we'll ever see is his famous quote about himself.

[Bill Simmons]

And he's not just the best defender in the league, he's decidedly the best defender in the league already. He absolutely disrupts and devastates games with his defense and really fucks teams up already.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

There was a sequence in Paris at the end of the third quarter that I, I'd ask everybody to go watch the first Pacers game in Paris where Victor blocked four shots in the row, in a row. One was a goaltend and then he made a three, threw a lob and caught a lob on the other end of the court. And that was just like, all right, that's, that's crazy. That's what Deer and Fox is seeing. That's what everybody else is seeing. This dude is only getting better. And I think the spurs are really excited today to have another piece in place, another all star level piece for the future to build an offense, specifically Bill, around a guy who, and I think this is your term, looks like a giraffe on ice a little bit sometimes on offense. Deer and Fox is going to take care of some of that and they can grow together. And is there a better, just a lob game than Fox and Wemby? I love it.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know if Fox is on a. If this is going to be like a Chicago Bulls run for Wemby someday or a Lakers run or you know, a Kobe Gasol run or a 2010s warriors run. I'm not sure. Fox to me seems more like a Klay Thompson, Draymond Green level star. He's not Like a true number two. He's not the Kobe to Shaq, something like that. Still feels like there's room for them to get one more awesome wing. And then that's the threesome Wemby awesome wing, Fox. And they have two years to figure it out. They're not going to win the title this year, they're not going to win the title next year, but they have the pieces to figure this out. And as we're seeing now, not just with Fox, Wemby is becoming a seductive spot in San Antonio. For if you're a player that wants to win, that wants to kind of be along for the ride for some titles and some playoff appearances and a place with no state tax, a really good organization, it becomes pretty enticing. So here's the small market model working well.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah. And I wrote this in the Wemy piece, but there's like two guys under 26 in the Ringer top one hundreds, top ten rankings. Victor Wembanyama is by far the youngest. And the other one is Luka Doncic, who is about to be 26. Right. So, I mean, Wemby has, he's going to be Doncic his age in 2029, I wrote, which is just crazy. Just think about how much time he has to get better. And, and look, yeah, he is there. He's going to be this great player. We. I don't want to sort of belabor the point, but this is a deal that the spurs, they don't, they don't make a lot of trades. They don't do this kind of thing historically. So this is a big deal for them. And I'm sure they're, they're pretty happy with it. They didn't. Like I said, I think the other headline is they didn't give up Castle. They didn't give up the sell. They didn't give up. So Han. And they still have Atlanta's pick this year, which is, is looking really good.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, by the way, how is that pick not in this trade? Because Jalen Johnson just goes out and that Atlanta pick is going to be somewhere probably between 9 and 14 in a really loaded draft.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Maybe even better than that.

[Bill Simmons]

I would have wanted that one.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Atlanta is cratering right now, unsurprisingly, without Jalen. So, yeah, I think they're in really good shape. And you know, nobody, nobody's, nobody's truly surprised by that. But this is the kind of move that a pop organization hadn't typically made. This is a team that builds through the draft through savvy Free agency signings doesn't usually go after a big trade piece like this. So it's a big deal for the San Antonio Spurs.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm just relieved that and we got some of it with Chris Paul this year. But you know, I am a big. If you have a big guy, you have to have a good or very good point guard that can take care of him. If I have a good eater in my house, I want to have a good chef to cook for the. If I have a Hall of Fame eater in my house, not going to go to the crappiest grocery store. I want real meals for my guy. Sacramento now has a team of Sabonis, Levine, DeRozan, Malik, Monk, Keegan, Murray. Basically as the. I guess the crunch time five. I guess that means some monk playing some point, DeRozan having the ball. This is just turning into a. Let's just play our best five guys together. They don't really have another point guard. Maybe they'll try to get one. Maybe they could try to flip an ass in something. But it's just a weird team and you mentioned earlier, it's a directionless team. It's a team. When we worked at Grantland together 10 years ago, we got a lot of comedy out of. They took Stouskas. What was that with the eighth pick, Stauskas. And it was that video of Vivek going around the table like Stauskas, Stauskas going around. And we all got a kick out of that. They've just been a train wreck forever really. Since 2000, it's been 20 years of this. Then two years ago, they get the two seed light the beams happening. They got a little something with Sabonis and Fox together and it feels like they're on the right way. And this year they fire their coach. They bring in Doug Christie, they start winning a couple games. It's like, whoa, okay, feeling good again. And then Fox has that trade request and it craters everything again. They lost by 180 points to OKC yesterday and became clear something was going to happen. What would you tell Kings fan?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

It feels like the same old thing to me, Bill. The west has been brutal since we've been covering basketball together. You're looking at teams like Memphis, Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio for the foreseeable future. Not to mention the LA Lakers.

[Bill Simmons]

Edwards.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, yeah. Not. It's just. Okay. What are you trying to do to get past teams like that? So it's not a slight against the Kings, but it is. Do you really think this is going to beat The Grizzlies or the Rockets or the Thunder. I don't see that with a team built around DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. And it was a cool story when they were.

[Bill Simmons]

Because we've already seen it. That's right. Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

2,023 goals.

[Bill Simmons]

We have seen it. Sabonis playing with those guys is a fun wrinkle. I mean, the right kind of sophisticated offensive coach could probably have fun with this team. I'm not sure Doug Christie's our guy for that. And if I'm a Sacramento fan, I'm just bummed. I'm bummed that we didn't get the Atlanta pick. I'm bummed I didn't get at least three first. I'm bummed I didn't at least get. I don't know. So hand back something. Could we have turned Keegan Murray into Devon Vassell? You know, makes the Spurs. They just didn't get any of it. And then from the Chicago side, you know, this is the, this is the Reinsdorf middle. That's what they call it. Can we be between 36 and 44 wins every year? Can we have the illusion of hope? I think in their case, like, that team's not a contender. I wanted to see Budzealous play more. I actually like him.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, you like him.

[Bill Simmons]

They had to carve out some, some minutes for him. They got their first round pick back. I would assume the next move is Vucevich.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Being traded somewhere. Maybe they move Josh Giddy, I don't know. But it would seem like this is a move toward, let's now finish in the bottom 10 in the league and try to get another good pick. Right?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah. And I think they reclaimed their own pick, which is great. So they can be there. But yeah, Vucovic has some value on the market. I know teams like Phoenix or Golden State have been looking for shooting bigs and he, he, he matches that description. This guy is one of the best jump shooting bigs defensively. He leaves a lot to be desired, but I think he's, he's a good player. Um, and I wouldn't be surprised to see, you know, by the end of this week that he's, he's playing in a different uniform.

[Bill Simmons]

So when you say allowed to be desired, you mean because he doesn't play defense?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I think his nickname was layup line, if I'm not mistaken. But I might be, I might be mistaken on that.

[Bill Simmons]

You're being kind. I like, I like how you are cutting guys down sometimes in the, like, nicest possible way. He leaves a little to be desired. Like, is he a guy you could maybe score 70 points against in the rank? Yes, he is. Anyway, Chicago, now we can add them to the whole. To the. To the capture the flag sweepstakes. Try to get in there. Last thing I'll say. And then we can move on to the Luca trade, because I really have other stuff I want to say about Luca and everything that happened. This interesting moment for Darren Fox. We see these guys call their shot, right? These guys that push them, push their way to another team. They're usually about half a level higher than Darren Fox or they have some sort of playoff pedigree. Like in Jimmy Butler's case. In this case, he doesn't have it. I think he's a player we've all thought was really talented. He's about to hit his late 20s. We've seen him in the playoffs. You know, he didn't. He didn't leap out in any great way. There's not somebody. It's not like some Anthony Davis. That one year in the playoffs when he just laid waste to the Blazers. He doesn't have any of that. And I think we all think he's really good. But now this spotlight is completely different. You're playing in Sacramento. You're buried. You're just another team in the west with all these famous players and teams. Now you're playing with the most famous international player. That this league's going to have a different level of scrutiny and everything.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah. And it should be symbiotic. These guys should make each other better. De'Aaron Fox's strengths should play into Victor Wembanyama's strengths and vice versa.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

The dude is, you know, lightning. He's one of the faster players with the ball in his hand in the league.

[Bill Simmons]

Do you think the spurs want to play like that?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I think when you have him, you have.

[Bill Simmons]

Are they going to want to push and run and go? Is Wemby going to want to do that?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I mean, the first pass you look for Victor Wembanyama gets a defensive rebound. Now that first pass is okay. Can he get Fox at mid court on this sort of Bill Walton style outlet pass? Or, you know, does Kevin love over yet? So I think you. When you have Randy Moss, you throw the ball deep. And I think you. When you. When you get this. This is not Chris Paul. Right. Like, they've been playing with Chris Paul.

[Bill Simmons]

He's slowing everything down. Yeah. Cause he's old.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

In a good way. But for him but, you know, so.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I think they will play fast and I think, you know, Victor at the five is one of the more, you know, agile five men in the league. So I think they will, you'll see that pace number creep up in San Antonio. You have, you have a bunch of young guys now. So I think they will play to his strengths and he should get some easy buckets. You know, Wemby ball and he's a.

[Bill Simmons]

Crunch time guy for them too would be the other piece.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Crunch time? Yeah, for sure. The shooting has always been his, his, his challenge. But like if you look at his free throw number, which is what us nerds look at, it's great. He shoots 80% from the free throw line. That should be a 40% three point shooter. It just hasn't been there. I'd love to see him as he goes into sort of his late 20s, become a 37, 38, 40% three point shooter. He hasn't done that yet.

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And that's the thing that could take him over the top, make this a triumph for the Spurs. But he has, he has a lot of potential here and you're right, it's a laser focus for him.

[Bill Simmons]

Crunch time. Fox, Castle, Vassell, maybe Sohan, Wemby. It's a pretty good defensive team. It's not going to make a lot of threes. They're going to be some bad shots. But defensively that's a pretty interesting team and you'd probably, I guess, target Fox and go after him and try to put him in pick and rolls. But other than that, those are all guys that I think would be in pretty good shape. Anyway. Interesting trade. Anytime you can get San Antonio, Sacramento and the mediocre Bulls together for a three teamer, you just thank your lucky stars. We're gonna take a break, we're gonna come back and we're gonna talk about Luka. Day 2. The Fanduel Kick of Destiny is back. And this time it's every Manning for himself. This super bowl, two legends taking the field. It's a sudden death field goal showdown. Peyton vs. Eli, live from New Orleans. One kick, two. Claim ultimate family bragging rights bigger than the Super Bowl. Honestly, who will rise to the moment? Pick your winner now in the FanDuel app. And if you back the right brother, you earn a share of $10 million in bonus bets. The FanDuel Kick of Destiny 3. Make your free pick. Don't forget to tune in to watch the showdown live during The Super Bowl LVI pregame show on Fox at 3pm Eastern made the best Manning win. FanDuel official partner of Super Bowl 59. You must be 21 plus and president in select states or 18 plus and president in DC. No purchase necessary. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus pets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. Void were prohibited seat [e-mail] give them prom call 100 Gambler or visit RG Help. This episode is brought to you by Vrbo Private Vacation Rentals. With Vrbo, you always get the whole house so you and your fellow fans can cheer on your team in peace. What's worse than watching a game with somebody who's not rooting for the same team? You're rooting for nothing. But that's why if you book a vacation house with vrbo, you know all the people in your house, they'll be friends, they'll be family. Ideally, they'll be the ones who also root for my teams. Plan a winning vacation. Make it a vrbo. All right, Kurt Goldsberry, you're sitting home on a Saturday night. Luka Doncic is being traded to the Lakers. What's your immediate reaction?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Like everybody else, this is hacked. It's embarrassing for Shams. I can't believe that the hacker didn't come up with a realistic trade. If only the hacker had come up with a realistic trade, this would have been a masterpiece.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, put Reeves in it, Put reeves in the 2031 first in a swap and then I might think this happened.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Literally. That's my reaction. I think it says it all, that everybody I know legitimately thought this was a hack and now are like digging into David Stern style conspiracy theories, trying to rationalize it afterwards. So those are the two points when it happened. This guy got hacked after it happened. This is a conspiracy theory. What explains this in reality? I mean, count me among the people. Bill. This is the biggest, craziest NBA trade of my life. This is great.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't even think I was saying it last night to Priscilla Mahoney. Just we're reacting in the moment and I had some time to sit with it and I'm like, this is definitely the craziest NBA trade. There's never been anything like this. There's never been an inkling. I'm going to walk you through. I came up with the six levels of massive NBA trades and I'm using mostly the 21st century trades as a litmus test. Cause I was really trying to figure out, has there been a crazier trade than this? Level one. Big deal. But we Definitely had an inkling. So that's like Iverson to Denver, Carmelo to the Knicks, Chris Paul to the Clippers, even Kevin Love to the Cavs. Big deal. But we knew, we had a feeling and it wasn't like massive and we weren't going to be telling our grandkids where we heard the news. Kyrie to the Boston, et cetera, et cetera. Level two, big deal. Immediately one sided and stupid. So it's a trade. You maybe had an inkling, but then you sit and you're like, wait, what? That's all they got. So that's like Vince Carter, the jersey T, Mac to the Rockets, Joe Johnson, the Hawks. Harded to Houston's a great one for this. Go Bear to the T. Wolves are like, wait, what? What happened? That's level two. Level three is the big deal. Out of nowhere that you feel like something tilted. That's Jason Kidd for Stephon Marbury in 2001. It's like, whoa, those guys might be the two best point guards in the league. They just traded them for each other. Gasol to the Lakers, Darren Williams to Utah, where he had a feeling wasn't going great there. And all of a sudden they're trading him for Derek Favors and two firsts. And it was like, whoa. But then we move into this next level, Level four, the mega deal. But we knew something was coming. So that's like Shaq to Miami. That's KG to the Celtics. That's Anthony Davis to the Lakers, Harden to the Nets, Durant to the Suns. We had a feeling we knew, but it was still like, holy shit, that's a monster trade. Then you go to level five, the mega deal. Out of nowhere. This is where it gets pretty rare. That's Paul George to the Clippers. We know Kawhi's picking back and forth between Lakers, Clippers. The whole week we don't see the Paul George piece. Now all of a sudden they're on the same team. They're trading Shade, Gilgis, Alexander, Danilo Gallinari. Four first two swaps and another protected pick. And we're just like, what happened? And I think that was the biggest shocking trade at least this century until we get to level six last night. What the fuck just happened? Did the reporter get hacked? It's never happened before. This is the first. Did the reporter get hacked? Megatrade. So you go backwards to the 70s, 80s, like will to the Lakers, Cream to the Lakers. They every time we had a feeling, maybe somebody that a guy was available, but you talked to a bunch of NBA teams. Had you heard Luka was available? It was even conceivable?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Hell no.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Hell no. I talked to people who were involved with this deal. I had no idea this was possible. And I think you had him fourth in the trade value.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Generally when anybody's. I would like to do a historical analysis of what's the highest person on that list that's ever been moved. Like.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, so a good way to. Somebody sent this to me that Bob McAdoo is the only real comparison we can ever do. Who was around the same age range. He'd won the MVP twice all NBA guy. And it's the only one that's even in the ballpark of. From a talent resume standpoint already. But in that case, they were trying to save money and they basically sold them to the Knicks.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

What about Kareem out of Milwaukee? Like, that reminds me of this, too.

[Bill Simmons]

It's like, yeah, or Moses Malone. But that. But those. Like, we knew those guys were getting traded. Those guys were like trading or I'm going to do franc. Moses Malone signed with Philly and they had to then come up with a deal. So that's like the caliber of dudes. Davis is another one in 2019 with the Lakers.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

We knew that, though.

[Bill Simmons]

Not like this. Where the guy didn't know he was getting traded. This has never happened.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah. Nobody knew that this dude was on the market, which to me is the legacy of this deal. And it actually helps explain it now 24 hours later to me is that the Dallas Mavericks valued Anthony Davis as much as Luka Doncic. Say what? Say what you want about that assessment, but that is the only justification or rationalization that explains how we got here right now, Bill, because they only called one team, which you and Rosillo and Mahoney did a great job of calling out that part of this. They really were zeroed in on getting Anthony Davis to their team. And I disagree with that assessment. I think most people around the NBA wildly disagree with the assessment. But that is the only explanation of how we got here today. That Nico Harrison looked at Anthony Davis and says, I want that as much as I want Luka Doncic.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. And people I've talked to, reading stuff, hearing stuff. It really seems like this starts in the finals last year when Boston kicks their ass and Luca's defense is a problem. And I think kid was just like, we. We're never going to win the title unless this guy takes a little more seriously on the other end and gets into better shape. Right. That's so that's something they're talking about internally all the time. Comes into this season, still not in awesome shape, gets hurt, gets hurt again. And you have Pelinka and Nico Harrison, who had this whole crazy long relationship together. These were two of the guys that Kobe was the closest to. So they've known each other from the height of the Kobe era, and they just start talking and they're reporting. All said they started talking in the beginning of January, and they've been talking ever since. And I think it's a masterful job by Plinka to convince Nico not to shop him. Now, if you're going to be fair to Nico, they're going to trade Luca. They know what they wanted. They wanted a big guy. There's no other big guy that they could have traded him for. Right. So if you're going to make calls, you're calling Milwaukee for Giannis and you're calling Boston for Tatum. So when people talk about how do you not chop them around, they feel like, like Nico said in the press conference, whether you agree with it or not, they felt like they have a team that has a chance to win the title. They wanted to add somebody who could help them win the title this year. So that rules out basically everyone in the league and brings you to Tatum and Giannis. And they didn't call Boston. They didn't call Milwaukee. Now, if they called Milwaukee and said, do you have any interest in trading for Giannis and Milwaukee, or do you have an interest in trading Giannis and Milwaukee? Said, I mean, the only way we'd ever even consider doing that is if Luca was on the table. And then Nico goes, well, hold on. What are you thinking? And then you kind of stumble into it. But they didn't make the calls.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

It's staggering. That remains and will always be the staggering part of this transaction. And I think when the dust settles, that's the biggest question that Nico Harrison's going to have to answer to for years. Is sure you reach the conclusion internally. Again, I'm not justifying this, but they reached the conclusion internally that we do not want to pay this person $350 million. We don't think his calf is going to hold up. We don't think his body's going to hold up. We don't think his nutrition is good. Whatever. They reach the conclusion that they're out. That's part of it.

[Bill Simmons]

And Nico said, we felt like we were heading toward a tumultuous summer that we couldn't avoid. So we are trying to get out of this now, which leads me to believe maybe they were split internally on.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Paying him or the ownership is involved. And I had one executive explain it to me like this. The why is pretty clear. They didn't want to be in the business of Luka Doncic long term. They think he's more like Joel Embiid than the rest of us. They think that this is a big long term risk, and they don't want that Joel Embiid albatross contract hanging over their cap table for the next, whatever, five, six years. That's. But you reach that point, and I think Ryan did a great job with this, too. Okay, now what is the process? The how is the problem. We can disagree with the why, but the how they executed this is the problem. You have a generational trade asset. You have to canvass the league. You have to cast the wide net. You have to get two or three parties negotiating against each other to get the best deal. Yeah, you're trading Herschel Walker. Dude, you gotta get the dynasty coming back to Dallas. You gotta get all those offensive linemen, all those Vikings picks for those of us of a certain age, and they didn't do that. Dude, that's gonna be the thing he has to answer to for the next few years.

[Bill Simmons]

I was talking to my wife about it last night after we did the podcast, and she was just like, I don't understand why they traded Luka. Wasn't he in the finals? Like, she knows nothing. She doesn't care. And I was like, yeah, they just, you know, they just felt like, I guess they didn't want to pay him. I still don't know anything. And she goes, well, did they try to trade him to other teams? Was that the best trade? And I was like, no, they just had one team. And she's like, that's weird, right? Like, she was just, like, trying. I was trying to explain it to her like she was like a little kid in elementary school. It's like, yeah, usually when you're shopping a guy, you tell the other teams. And then one of the funniest things I got this morning was one of my friends was like, dallas is the team in your fantasy league that they just trade and you fucking lose your mind. And everyone's on email threads arguing about it because they can't believe he wasn't shopped. And that's basically what Dallas did here. Couple kickers, though, with this. That makes me wonder if maybe the general public has completely overrated the talent in this trade. Or were. Or these two teams are Just insane. Dallas put in a second round pick. So we're sitting there going, how is Max Christie in this trade instead of Austin Reaves? How is their 2031 first not in there? Why wasn't there like three years of swaps? And as Priscilla made the joke last night, which was great about Polinka like holding firm on the 31 pick, like the deal was going to go away. It was even crazier than that. He's like, not on my own firm. Give me a second round pick. And he got it. So that's how bad the Mavs A wanted to get rid of Luka, I guess, and B, wanted Anthony Davis. Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And there's a week long process. One of my sources inside the Lakers was indicating that the deal was bigger. And I think you guys were literally joking about this last night that there were two firsts and there was Dalton connect. And the deal got whittled down because I think Rob Pelinka was able to convince the Dallas Mavericks that Luca is a lot of risk. And you guys are right for trying to look at this this way because this guy, oh, he's drinking or whatever, his weight problem, whatever it is. So they were able to convince it. This was a weeks long process. That's another thing that came out today is this wasn't. This was a.

[Bill Simmons]

And Dallas started almost three and a half weeks.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Dallas started it. Dude, this is. This fell in Rob Pelinka's lap and then he was able to reduce the outward Lakers assets to such. Dude. Mikhail Bridges commanded five first round picks.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, so the thing with Plinka I've just been marveling at, he's like a. It's like a character out of succession or something. He is over and over again figured out how to blame whoever was coaching the Lakers for whatever was wrong with them over any of his moves. Right. The Westbrook trade, you could point all these different things at point, but he always survives. And then he somehow Jedi mind tricks Nico Harrison with this Davis thing and talks to him for three weeks, convinces him not to shop him anywhere else. No, no, if you're going to trade Luka, it has to be for Davis. Who else in the league would it be? You have to get an all defensive center back like you to shop them. Like Milwaukee. Luka's not going to go to Milwaukee. Like Milwaukee's not going to trade Giannis for him because Luka's never going to sign there. They know that Boston loves Tatum. They're not turning Tatum into Luka. They love Tatum. That's Their guy like so now it's like Bam Adebayo. Like you can't trade Luca for Bam out of Bio. It's got to be Anthony Davis. So he's just like, like kind of tilting it so that Nico's like, yeah, you're right. I guess you guys are the only suitor. And it worked.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

The other thing is they think this team is going to win. They think that the Kyrie, Klay, Thompson, Anthony Davis trio is a big three. They think that.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, that's. They don't. They can't think that.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

They think they're going to win, otherwise they wouldn't have done it. But I think the only way again that you can explain why they would only call the Lakers is they wanted Anthony Davis. They started off this process, hey, we think we can get Anthony Davis and Nico has this preexisting relationship with Anthony Davis and Jason Kidd has this pre existing relationship with Anthony Davis in the Lakers. And again, I don't agree with these things but I like everybody spent the whole day trying to understand how this could have gone and how they only called one organization and it's.

[Bill Simmons]

They want a tough defensive team. Right. So they're thinking we can run our offense through Kyrie and ad. We have a bunch of shooters and tough defenders and we could actually hang in the west in a real way if those two guys are healthy. I don't. They might, they might not necessarily be wrong, but it doesn't mean they should have traded Luka Dodge.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I think they're going to be pretty good this year. I'm not going to say this is a disaster.

[Bill Simmons]

No, they're going to have real size with the two centers and Davis. They have wings that can play dirty. They have Kyrie who's a crunch time guy. This is a pretty big offensive burden for him. But I can see how you talked yourself into this except for the part that you're giving up a generational talent who's having one of the. The first seven years of his career. There's only four other guys in the history of the league. Wilt LeBron. Who are the other two? Wilt LeBron, Kareem Magic. No, there's one other one, but anyway that are on this. Oh, Oscar Robertson. That have the first seven years that Luka had in the history of the league. We're talking almost 80 years. Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Stephen Curry hasn't made first team all NBA as much as Luka has. It's crazy.

[Bill Simmons]

Stephen Curry took him three years to even become Stephen Curry. Right. Luka immediately and he made Western finals and finals. So I'm going to run through a couple things I'm going to throw at you. Just from reading, listening, talking to people. One of a couple of the narratives that didn't pass the sniff test for me or just things that I didn't hit yesterday that I wanted to. The first one, the AD and LeBron and Klutch being blindsided by this trade, having no idea that it was in the works, finding out like we all did after the fact. As you know, I'm a conspiracy guy. I'm a sniff test guy. This does not pass the sniff test for me. For this reason. Buried in all this stuff was Anthony Davis waved his trade kicker to go to Dallas. And he did it pretty quickly. So you have Anthony Davis blindsided by the trade, who loves Los Angeles, who's in his little clutch triangle with LeBron and Rich Paul and out of nowhere gets traded to Dallas. And he's so upset about it that he decides to forego $5.9 million and wave his trade kicker money he's entitled to. And he's like, I'm good. Yeah, yeah, forget it. I want to help you guys out. It just doesn't pass the sniff test for me. LeBron James, same thing. LeBron, you would think he took, would take this so personally. You trade my guy. This is my hand pointed sidekick. You gotta trade me. Now quietly, today, it's like, nah, he's gonna be here after the trade deadline. And then clutch, same thing. Shams has a relationship with Klutch. Shams gets the scoop. I just think they knew before the trade and I wouldn't bet my life on it, but that would be my bet.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, I think the idea that this traveled in silence the whole time.

[Bill Simmons]

It's absurd.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Is a lot. It's absurd now that we know it's.

[Bill Simmons]

Been since January 7th. It's absurd.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

That's right. That's what I learned today too, is that this was a month long process. And the idea that this was as quiet, it's, it is hard to believe, particularly the way that clutch and LeBron have inserted themselves into Lakers basketball operations. And I agree with you that the idea that, that Anthony was so quick to waive that thing and that seems.

[Bill Simmons]

Kind of fired up to go to Dallas, which this is why I wanted to do a second day pod raises a bunch of questions for me. It's like, you seem pretty pumped about this. You're not sticking them with the trade kicker and you seem like you like where you're going and you have this long relationship with Nico Harrison and you're getting away from the Lakers and maybe you feel like you're selling high in your Laker experience. You won a title. LeBron's 40 years old. Eh, New challenge, Dallas. Maybe I'll be the guy there in Texas. Just seems like if he was pissed about it, you're making them pay the 5.9 and he didn't.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, that's a great point. It's also a big compliment. I think one of y'all said this last night that he is the piece for Luka Doncic. And I think that's almost flattering to a point, right.

[Bill Simmons]

That they had to throw in a second round pick from Dallas's side just to get this done.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And there's some intel that, that Anthony was not in love with playing in Los Angeles the way they were playing basketball. I think it all comes together that he might have been, he might not have been as satisfied there as he was letting on.

[Bill Simmons]

And then if LeBron was truly blindsided by this just from his, let's say, some passive aggressive behavior over the years from him with roster moves and lack of moves and he just seems pretty fine with the events, at least so far. It's 6:30 now on a Sunday night. We haven't seen him really like leak anything, say anything and just seems okay because he's smart, because he gets to play Luka Doncic. And now there's a scenario where. Hey Luka, let me teach you some diet stuff. Hey, Luka, this is called a Versaclimber. What do you think of this thing? Hey Luka, I see you're weighing about 265 right now. Do you realize if you weigh 250, this, this, this, this, and this will happen. Hey, Luka, here's why you keep hurting your calf. You're not doing like. Luka basically inherits the greatest personal trainer in the history of the league. LeBron doesn't get hurt.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Ever tried red wine instead of these, you know, Czech pilsners that you've been crushing over the last. I think that's.

[Bill Simmons]

This is the scary thing of the tradesman. This is what my dad said today. He's like, I don't want Luka in the Lakers for a million reasons. But what if he figures it out? What if he's in better shape? What happens then?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Well, dude. And he is. And I think a lot of us feel this way. This is. They poked the bear. And that's not a fat guy joke. They.

[Bill Simmons]

I meant to say yesterday, the fu. Potential now we have huge FU potential, Bill. Huge.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

This guy, he talks like, when I first got into Luca, when he would run his mouth against dudes like Pat Beverly and stuff, and he was a kid, and he would just give it right back, and sometimes more than he was getting. And I was like, this guy is a competitor. And now, yeah, you guys did say this yesterday, but it's true. They poured a bunch of gas on this dude's fire. And if he. If he's able to channel it the way that I think and a lot of Mavs fans think right now, look out, dude, because you're right. He can come in. In, like, LeBron 2012 mode, you know, after that Mav series and just be like, all right, I'm. I'm here, and I'm mad, and I can't wait for February 25th to play the Dallas Mavericks in Dallas.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm going to get in the craziest shape of my life. I remember for page two, in 2004, when Shaq got traded, I wrote a column called the Vengeance Scale, and I ranked the Vengeance Scale from zero to a hundred because I thought, like, I was like, shaq, at least for the next couple years, is going to get in shape and dedicate his life to trying to win a title and stick this up the Lakers ass. And he eventually did. Wade got hurt in 05. He did in 06. I think Luka the competitive, he's both, like, crazy competitive, but also frustratingly competitive, because if he was that competitive, he would be in better shape. But I think he's competitive enough that when somebody trades you, you're just going to be pissed. When you're playing for the Lakers in LA and this incredible franchise and you getting, you know, bathed in love from all. You see, the 77 jerseys, all that stuff, it has a chance to really ignite them. And that would be the thing if. I mean, I feel so bad for the Mavs fans. I've talked to a couple of them today. Like, they're just so devastated. They just can't believe this. And if I'm Mavs in, the worst part of this trade is what happens if we lose in round two and Luca just goes on a heater for the next, like, eight years? And we're like, we fucking lost Jalen Brunson and Luka Doncic. And I was on a thread with some Red Sox fans. We were arguing about the Mookie Betts trade versus the Luka trade. And Luka, I think, is a more important asset because it's so there's four untradable NBA guys every year in baseball. There's 25 guys on a team. But Mookie was our Luca, basically.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And he. We'd actually won a title with them. And he really was a unique, amazing, top five, top A player. And we got. We didn't get Anthony Davis for him. I'll just tell you that. We got. We got Connor Wong and Jeter Downs and Alex Verdigo, and we got rid of David Price's contract. That was a trade. And it made me not like baseball. Like, I. I don't really watch the Red Sox in the same way anymore. So for the Mavs fans, like, I know some Mavs fans like Jason Gallagher, who we used to work with. Like, he's. He's talking about, like, his son is like, I'm following Luca to the Lakers. Like, he's like a lifelong Maps fan. It's like, now I am a Laker fan. That this is like, that whole fucked up side of this is crazy.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

No, it's totally true. Like, so many fans, like, when Mbappe goes from PSG to Real Madrid, they're just like, I'm going to Real Madrid. I'm a Real Madrid fan now. I guess this is a generational talent who is going to bring fans like Jason Gallagher's son with him. That's not going to be a unique story. And that means poor Gallagher. Sorry. But yeah, dude, that. I went to the Mav subreddit today and it was like Sons of Sam Horn in October 2003. It was so bad.

[Bill Simmons]

They were going to the arena with, like, props. Somebody brought a coffin. Like they were. They were having, like, a protest. Somebody brought a coffin to say goodbye to the. Just.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Just visceral pain, dude.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, there. And there's also some incredible conspiracy stuff already. I mean, God only knows what's true. Half true, 10% true. But people think.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

What are your favorite conspiracy.

[Bill Simmons]

No, my favorite. I. I love this one. That the owners have always wanted the Vegas team, and their eventual goal is to basically flip franchises, move Dallas to Vegas so they can have their whole casino thing. The expansion team that was going to go in Vegas would be the Dallas team. They'd pay whatever. And the first way to do this was to be basically to torpedo the Mavericks franchise relationship with their fans by trading Luka Doncic. And it's like, I have no notes. That's one of the best conspiracy theories I've ever heard.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And I'm in Texas right now. One more layer to that one is like, gambling in Texas may Or may not happen, right?

[Bill Simmons]

Probably not happening.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

So, yeah, like, this family made. For those who don't know, this family made its money in Vegas. Like, they are a casino family. Yeah. So that's a good one. There's definitely some other ones about just trying to get ratings up and the Lakers back. But, yeah, there's a lot of, how.

[Bill Simmons]

Do we help the Lakers? That's what my dad said. My. I mean, the father of Conspiracy Bill, Conspiracy Bill Senior, was like, this just feels like the Lakers were about to die and they had to put another star in their team. Because my dad was like, how does this team keep pulling this off? Like, all the Celtic fans were just getting pissed about this today because this is the team we hate the most. And it's just like, this team just steps in shit. They're born on third base in the ultimate way. They fuck up the entire 2000 and tens. The entire 2000 and tens. Even, like, they take Lonzo Ball over Tatum. Like, he can point to a million things. And it all leads to LeBron being like, yeah, you know what? I really want to live in LA. And they just miraculously land LeBron. Then they have this clutch alliance where, like, we're putting Anthony Davis on the Lakers. Nobody else trade for him. The Celtics are like, here are all these picks and we'll trade you Jaylen Brown. They're like, nope, he's got to go to the Lakers. So now they get Davis and LeBron together, and then they get six years out of Davis and turn him into Luka Doncic, the best generational offensive prospect, slash, star, slash, heading into his prime guy since LeBron.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And they got. Yeah, and you guys did a little of this yesterday, but they got Shaq and they got Pau Gasol exactly when they needed him. And like, yeah, what we said in San Antonio is like, there's three team. There's three ways to build an NBA team. The trade, free agency, and draft. And the Lakers really have access to all three of those levers in a way that no other team does, specifically trades and free agency. And this is just another example of that. And the spurs or the Grizzlies or the Thunder will never get a trade for somebody like Luka Doncic or a free agency play like that. So they do start on third base. That's exactly right. And this is the updated version of them getting Kareem Abdul Jabbar 50 years ago.

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

This is just wild. But it is kind of cool in that sense. As an NBA historian, it falls in line with this. But as Celtics fans, not. Not exactly thrilled with that historic, like, parallel, I guess.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. You could do an all time nine man rotation of NBA 75 guys that they've traded for, signed in for ages. Wilt, Kareem, Shaq, and Kobe. Because they traded for Kobe, Gasol, Dwight, LeBron, AD Luca. Those guys are all top 75 guys that they acquired. Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And pay me to their NBA team and say, who's the best? Who's the best player your team's ever traded for?

[Bill Simmons]

Right. And it's like, for us, for, like the Celtics would be. Robert Parrish and KG, I think would be the two best. And that's in 80 years, unless you count the Bill Russell trade, because they flip draft picks.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

But yeah, but if you talk about the Bucks or even the Sixers or the Magic, these kinds of players don't just show up on your doorstep.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. And then the flip side for the Mavs, this is. I mentioned the Mookie Betts trade. This is Edmonton trading Gretzky in 1988, which we did a 30 for 30. That was actually the first 30 for 30 ever. But Gretzky had already won titles for them. The whole point is Luka had not won the title for them yet. He had the promise of, oh, my God, we have this guy for the next 20 years. Then we have the other weird piece, Kirk, about the Lakers, who are playing well. They still have to do the trade. But the irony of them doing the trade right now was they had just started to look like a contender and they had an identity and they were big and physical and they'd figured out some of the spacing. Christie and Finney Smith were both playing well at Wings, so they finally had competent wings they could put out there. So that was part of the trade last night, was the timing of. It was like, I just watched this team. They look really good. And now they just made the most shocking trade in the history of the league. So a defense of the Luca trade from Dallas's side. I just want to do this as a thought exercise. If you're trying to zag, what's the defense? If you're like, you know what? Nico Harrison has figured this out and he's going to fucking show you. This trade was really smart. What's the defense?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

The defense is that Luka Doncic is the next Joel Embiid. He is a person whose body isn't going to hold up to these crazy pace and space games that happen 82 times a year, plus playoffs. Like, Luka played 100 games last year. He's repeatedly strained his calf. We think there's an Achilles terror risk here. We think there's a weight. We think the lower body's going to go or the back's going to go, and we're going to be on the hook for that Joel Embiid equivalent and we don't want to do it. And this is the last trade deadline opportunity we have to turn him into something. I don't take that stance, but that's the case, and I think that's what they saw. Moreover, I thought specifically they wanted Anthony Davis, and I think they think they're a better team with Anthony Davis than with Luka Doncic.

[Bill Simmons]

That's the only I'll add to the defense. Anthony Davis anchored a finals team in 2020 that won it all. Defense wins championships. No defense. Stars don't win titles. Go find me one. Seen a lot of no defense. Superstars take teams to round three, maybe even round four, but they don't win. How do we know he was signing here in 2026? We don't know. Got to get out early. The way to do this is to do it now. And we feel like we can get a lot of value. And then AD was the only guy we wanted. Luka was never going to Milwaukee. Boston wouldn't. Tatum. Bam's not good enough. KD's too old. Edwards makes no sense for either side. Jalen Brunson? No. So where are we shopping him to? We're going to trade him for a bunch of picks. Like, we didn't want to do that. We feel like our team's good. I think that's the defense, and it's moronic.

[Cousin Sal]

It's.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, we'll see. I mean, I will leave a sliver, a sliver of hope for the Mavs fans that they could be hoisting up Larry O'Brien in the next year or two. I don't think that's going to happen.

[Bill Simmons]

But they're so mad. They'd probably boo the finals trophy ceremony. Throwing their Luka Doncic jerseys at fuck you.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

It's almost like Ohio State football. Like, they won the national title and they're still pissed off that they lost that Michigan game.

[Bill Simmons]

Right? We won, but we're still mad.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah. Like, they could literally boo the parade. But, yeah, I don't see it. I think they really believe that Anthony Davis and I think this is Nico Harrison believing that Anthony Davis can anchor a top defense in the NBA and that with Kyrie and Clay and their role players, that they can. They can compete For a title. That's the defense.

[Bill Simmons]

They still need one more trade. I think they need somebody a little more he checky who can create their own shot. And they still have time to do it because they have somebody.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Well, you know, he's from Dallas.

[Bill Simmons]

Who?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Jimmy Butler. Is he from Dallas or Houston? Where's that from? I forget.

[Bill Simmons]

Cerutty just texted us that the Warriors Jimmy Butler trade talks have finally ended because the warriors did not want to commit to an extension. And Jimmy Butler said this is. Who reported this already? It was Wendy. Oh, Wendy reported. Yeah. So there you go. Yeah. I was thinking about the one thing we didn't talk about yesterday because we were so dumb. Dumbfounded by the trade. Are there moves for the Lakers this year to become an interesting playoff team? Because I'm positive if LeBron is playing like he did last night and he can just stay somewhat healthy and fresh for a couple rounds, that's not a team I want to see in round one, around two, then Luka with him and you just have these two freaky, physical six foot eight, six foot nine guys who don't really have a position, who can. Who both have crazy hoops IQs. And then if you can put the right team around them, which they're inching closer to having, except they don't have any rim protection at all. And could they go get Nick Claxton was a rumor today. Could they take a flyer in Robert Williams? Could they get Clint Capella? Would the Hawks want to trade a Kongwu for the 2031 pick which put Austin Reaves on the table? What could you get for him?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, Austin Reeves is expendable now. I mean, why do you need Austin Reeves? You have Luka Doncic.

[Bill Simmons]

You need him. House and I were talking about this today. You need him as your six man injury protection. For one of those two guys, somebody who's 25 minutes a game, you always have two. You know, obviously the other two guys are way better offensively, but you always have two really good creators and Reeves is turning into a pretty good creator, um, at all times. So could you, could you turn like Gabe Vincent 2031, something else into like Nick Claxton?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Claxton and Time Lord are the names that keep coming up. And I would guess that one of them will be on the Lakers. I would guess that they need a five. Obviously they need a five. They don't have it.

[Bill Simmons]

You're not sold on Jackson Hayes? Christian. Christian Wood? Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I'm a professor at the University of Texas and Jackson is one of our One of our guys. So I'm a big Jackson Hayes guy. But no, I want a five man. And my question for you, Bill, is like, do you believe that this Lakers team thinks they're going to compete for a title now this year in the next five months?

[Bill Simmons]

Here's the thing, they should think that way. And I didn't think they had a chance to win four straight rounds with the team they had because it was putting too much. LeBron looked good against the Knicks, like he was awesome against the Knicks. To ask somebody to do that for 10 straight weeks to me at age 40 is not realistic. But now they have a guy who can. We've already seen him single handedly beat teams in a series who's now going to be pissed off trying to shove it up somebody's ass. So if I'm the Lakers, I feel like I could win three rounds now. I feel like we're going against OKC and it's like we have LeBron and Luka and you guys are small and we're going to just try to bully ball you and you can, you know, do whatever, but you, we're still going to be a bitch to play. I can't believe I'm saying this, but like they have the six best. They were 21 to 1 last night, now they're 18 1. So people are betting them, which is not surprising. But if they get, if they get a rim protector and they can play LeBron and Luka with some sort of shooting point guard Finney Smith and the rim protector at crunch time with Reeves coming off the bench and some other pieces, like I wouldn't want to see him in a series.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

That's where I'm at. But it hinges on that rim protector because right now they're just not built for a playoff run without rebounding and rim protection.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, they have the miracle of Pelinka keeping reeves and the 2031 pick. So they, I mean they go get that. And that almost could be part of the trade, right? Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And every call I'm sure you had today that I had today is like, oh yeah, they might trade LeBron to Golden State too, which I don't think will happen, but came up so many times today that we have came up last night too.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it's, I think he stays. It's a better career move and I think he likes la, right? You get traded, your son has to come with you. That's weird going to Golden State. What, what ultimately are going to happen, you get to play with Curry. It's an older team, you have a better chance of winning the title with the team you have now. If he's all about titles and like and, and an unbelievable out of nowhere title run, which still dubious. But you go through all these teams and all right, they're playing Houston in round one. Are you going against Luka pissed off with LeBron as his sidekick against like Fred Van Vliet, like what are we doing?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah. And there's still the buyout market too. And these guys just became the biggest magnet. And that market is always irregular and unreliable. Don't get me started. But every once in a while there is a valuable piece on the buyout market and they will get really attractive potential buyout pieces looking at their team. So I think they have two moves left. This is a big four day period for the Lakers front office. They're going to look at sending out that pick. They're going to look at sending out Austin Reaves, maybe even Rui Hashimura to try to turn it into something at the five especially. But around these two generational playmakers. Two generational playmakers and two guys who do don't shrink in the playoffs.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

So I think they are going to try to go, but they are, I think they're going to do a little bit caution. I'd be, I'd be surprised if the pick went. I'll say that I think they're going to try to do it with personnel.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, they're going to be in a situation where they're going to have to sign Luka this summer and LeBron's going to opt into his deal. So they basically have one chance to align all the money because they're going to get crushed next year no matter what happens. But they're the Lakers and they shouldn't care because all of a sudden they have this meal ticket of LeBron was about to end with the season tickets, the suites, everything else. You had the Clippers in their new arena, which is awesome. Lakers playing in the shitty Staples Center. And now it's like now it's now here's come see Luka Doncic and it's a guy that, you know, there's always been a weird thing with LeBron and the Laker fans because it's right after Kobe and there's this whole Kobe contingent and Luka had this awesome early relationship with Kobe and I could just see them being all in on adopting him. And also he won't be the first guy to move to California and immediately lose 20 pounds and look awesome and be Tan and get in shape. It's happened many times. This is what happens when you come out here. Perfect place for him.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Who's he going to be dating? TMZ's getting ready. But yeah, in all seriousness, that 77 jersey in purple and gold. How long till we start seeing the tweets? The number one selling jersey in the NBA. It's already done. Like again, this is a team that just finds money and this is just an update.

[Bill Simmons]

Born on third base team. It's frustrating as hell. The thing with the Lakers though, they do have really good fans. I gotta hand it to them. And they have an expectation. It's annoying that it's always gonna somehow work out right. Even if they're in the 2010s. They kept ending up with these picks and it was a mess. And Kobe's last two years weren't great. And it was always like, we're the Lakers. This is going to work out. The Celtics used to have that in the 80s and 90s. It's like, what now it'll work out. And then all of a sudden it didn't work out forever. And I was always like, just wait with this lakers thing when LeBron leaves. Just wait. And now they end up with Luka Dacic. Yeah. And he'll probably be pissed off.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah. Because it felt like they were heading towards an era where they were going to have a 34 year old Anthony Davis as breaking down.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

It felt like Reeves and Max Christie.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And now they're going to have a 27 year old Luka Doncic just angry at the world and hopefully they are able to extend him. And I do want to say that. And one of the sort of main points here is like there's no guarantee he's going to sign that extension in Los Angeles.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

What if Miami is like batting their eyelashes at him?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

What if San Antonio, like what if Oklahoma City, like there are teams that are going to let him know that they really want him to play there.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, come on. The NBA doesn't allow to do that, Kirk. Teams aren't allowed to talk to players from other teams. That doesn't happen.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

God. But it's like. So I think that what. That's something I haven't heard talked about enough is there is a chance that he will not want to be there. I think it's a small chance. I think he's now at the New York Yankees and he is sort of. That a Rod character is going to settle into that sort of dude.

[Bill Simmons]

People don't leave the Lakers They. Once you're here and you're on the Lakers and they're spending money and you're. You're in the sunshine, you don't. Guys have not left the Lakers. Great players. They stay. That's what happens.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

All right, let me ask Sports.

[Bill Simmons]

I think he stays.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Let me ask you this. Where does. How far do the Lakers go this year?

[Bill Simmons]

I feel like I'm going to throw up right now. There are five seeds. They are tied with Denver and losses for the four seed, and they're only three back from Memphis. I think they have to get in the top half of that top four. Right. So they can have at least one home series. I'm just. I'm all in on Luca. I completely believe in him as a terrifying offensive force. And I think he needed a kick in the ass like this. I'm all in on him. Like, I feel like they can make the Finals. I don't think it's crazy. We watched him do it last year and he owns Oklahoma City.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

That's right. That's what I was just going to say.

[Bill Simmons]

That's the one team they have to beat. And he plays great against them. And even this year he had a good game against them. But, you know, and then you take a team like Denver, how do you beat a team like Denver with two really gifted offensive players, you know, and then there's the LeBron piece, too. This is like an amazing out of nowhere, you know, life raft for a chance to get another title and rewrite some of his shit.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And, dude, I think his odometer benefits from this. I think off ball LeBron is. He lasts a little bit longer. He's a little more durable than on ball LeBron. And I think just him setting screens is a crazy concept, right?

[Bill Simmons]

Them running pick and rolls. Right.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, he's the new Karl Malone. He's just. He just becomes Karl Malone for them. And he's.

[Bill Simmons]

But that was the thing last night in the Knicks game. Physically, he was so impactful compared to everyone on the Knicks. It just didn't feel like they had a big enough athlete to handle him. And LeBron hasn't felt like that in a while. It really feels like. And maybe he knew that Luca trade was coming and that's why he was playing with a little. Little pep in his step. But I just think those guys are going to be really hard to play. There's a flip side of this where those two are a disaster on defense. You can't play the two of them with Reeves together. JJ who is now Realizing the weight of, holy shit, I took this Lakers job. And now we have Luka Doncic. He's like, his hair's fucking falling out. By April, they aren't able to get the right rim protector. Like, I would say it's 65, 35 for me, that they could actually be an incredibly dangerous playoff team versus. But I was. I was surprised with the people I talked to today. Like, people kind of weren't seeing the immediate title picture. I think Luka, as long as he's healthy, he has to be. It's like Jokic. It's like when Denver looked like shit in the start of the season and we were all worried about them. It's like, well, they still have Jokic. Like, I'm not counting them out yet.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, I mean, Oklahoma City gets my respect. They deserve it.

[Bill Simmons]

Me too.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Beyond that, Houston, who I adore, Memphis I love. I just think they're both too young, really. And if you're telling me I have Luka and LeBron against either of those two teams, there's a case for those Lakers to just to get them with wisdom.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I would say the Clippers, from a defensive roster standpoint are actually built the best to kind of battle this team. Which means maybe we'll finally get the Clippers Lakers series we've been waiting for forever. But, yeah, I just think in a series, it's going to be really hard to match baskets with them. If Luka's right, and I don't know why he wouldn't be right. He was averaging 28 a game, by the way. I know he's having like his worst statistical year, but yeah, this is an.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Amazing way we put it. We put it on wax. Your season tickets for the Clippers. We put it on wax like three weeks ago that we was like, let's not forget the Los Angeles Clippers. Then Kawhi comes back and they've looked like the best team in the NBA.

[Bill Simmons]

At times until today.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

What happened today?

[Bill Simmons]

They lost yesterday. No, they didn't. They lose to Toronto.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Oh, yeah, that's right. They lost to Toronto.

[Bill Simmons]

That was.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

But, yeah, like over the last two months, or I should say January. Just look it up. Like, their indicators scream, this is. We're. We're good. And their defense has been good all year. And as we said for them, though.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, yeah. Clippers versus Lakers. We could see it. Amazing trade. Congrats to the spurs for getting Fox as well. I don't know. We have four days until the trade deadline. Kirk. I don't know what else to expect. We don't know where Jimmy Butler is going. There's still. What other. What other things should we be watching? Jimmy Butler?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

The Nets. The Nets have a for sale sign up in the front yard. I think both Claxton and Cam Johnson are on the move.

[Bill Simmons]

If I had to guess Miami, God only knows what they're up to. Are Memphis and Houston going to feel like they should do something which is would be great for the Lakers if they didn't. Is Cleveland going to tinker with anything at all? Vucevich is another one. Can the Suns get off Nurkic's deal with a pick and try to try to get a better rim protector?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

And then Grant I think is one to watch in Portland. If Portland can find a taker for Jeremy Grant.

[Bill Simmons]

And can Milwaukee figure out anything would be my other question. Are they just stuck with the team they have? I'm sure there's more.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I think there's a classic Bill Simmons trope that was relevant this crazy weekend is new owner syndrome. Which by the way, when the Bucks changed owners, that's when this Lillard thing happened. And the Drew Holiday thing. This is like the owners remain the most underrated characters in pro sports sagas. And this is another example with Mark Cuban have done this deal.

[Bill Simmons]

So I was texting somebody about that today saying Cuban's gotta be disconsolate because first of all he trades the Mavs as the franchise or sells the Mavs as the franchises are going up. He's seems like he had a feeling like he might be involved. He's not. And then Luca, this is hand picked. Like if they win the title, he gets to take credit for that forever. Now they trade him.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I remember one of the we did a Grandlin feature with Mark in 2013 or 14 on, you know, at that time he was like symbolic of this new era of bad boy tech owner Guy. And we talked about how the Mavs were a laughingstock before him, you know, and no disrespect to Mark Aguirre, Orlando Blackman, but they were never a great franchise. And then he gets them to the finals two or three times and it sure looks like this new ownership group is taking things in a different direction. So yeah, he's gotta be just so destroyed.

[Bill Simmons]

Kurt Goldsberry, great to see you. Looking forward to your next piece and we'll see you in Austin in a few weeks.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah, that's right.

[Bill Simmons]

Can't wait for that big live show coming. Hell yeah. Good to see you. Thank you.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Thank you, brother.

[Bill Simmons]

This episode is brought to you By Paramount. Ridley Scott's return to ancient rome and Gladiator 2 is nothing short of awesome. And now you can stream it at home on Paramount. Years after the death of Maximus, Lucius is forced into the Coliseum after his home is conquered by tyrannical twin Roman emperors. With the future of the empire at stake, he must find strength and honor to return the glory of Rome to its people. Gladiator 2 now streaming on paramountplus.com rated R. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. Here's the thing about Prime. Whatever you're into, it makes it even better. I love. Because we watch a lot of prime movies for the rewatchables. I love being able to pop up the X ray thing that tells you what actors and what scene. I love that. I love being able to rent movies that just came out or buy them if I'm excited to do that. From streaming to shopping, it's on Prime. Visit Amazon.comprime to get more out of whatever you're into. All right, we're taping this on a Sunday afternoon. Sal, you hate this. It's super bowl week. It's supposed to be all NFL. And then the NBA holes come flying in with the most shocking trade in NBA history. And now we. Now you gotta, like, take a side. Take a seat on the side.

[Cousin Sal]

I know. A seat on the side. Disgusting. Disgusting that this is the most important sports podcast you're gonna do all year. And how many minutes of NBA wholeness did you.

[Bill Simmons]

I know. It's a double weekend. Yeah, I know.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, but you put the Luca stuff before me, didn't you?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, you did. You're like the second guest.

[Cousin Sal]

Son of a bitch. I.

[Bill Simmons]

We're still going. We're still doing our thing. It's just, you know, congratulations, Dodgers got traded. Your.

[Cousin Sal]

Your league is back. You could go back to 17 minute quarters and 100 games in the regular season.

[Bill Simmons]

We kept 12 minute quarters. We're good now.

[Cousin Sal]

That's what happened. Silver's like, hey, man, we got to. We're thinking of changing the size of the court and the. And how much time is in each quarter. Can we just do something to make Boston New LA great over the next three years? Come on, Dallas. Can you step up here?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. What if we put Luka and LeBron on the same team? Will anyone complain about the ratings again?

[Cousin Sal]

The good news is, though, I. I will say your trade machine and trade thoughts, which I thought a lot of times with nonsense like when week seven, when we had to do 10 minutes on Giannis to the Nets And I was like, okay, good. But now people should listen to you because nothing is too ludicrous. There's not one trade that could be too crazy to. To pass muster here.

[Bill Simmons]

It really is true. Like, the now at this point, the only person I would refuse to believe got traded is Wemby.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I think everyone else in the league. You could talk me into a trade in a ridiculous scenario involving any player. Super Bowl, Chiefs, Eagles. We've had a week to either think about it or not think about it. There are a ton of props. Fando has amazing pages and pages of great stuff, great links. We're going to have ringer specials on there later. Ringer Sunday pregame is going to have some stuff like, we're. We're good. Do you have a feel for the super bowl yet and has it affected your super bowl props, the things that you think will happen in the game. Are you steering that way already?

[Cousin Sal]

Yes, I think so. I think you and I will give our official picks who's going to win towards the end of the week. I did notice that. I don't need two weeks. I don't. Let's get to the part where I'm depressed already. Like, I don't have to be depressed about being depressed. Right. So I don't like this extra week in between. It makes me. Analysis leads to paralysis. It was like, a lot of ways to determine how old we are. Like, oh, Babe Ruth won the home run title closer to when we were born than today, you know, and that sucks. And you and I will send something. Oh, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Is that true?

[Cousin Sal]

Three's Company premiered 48 years ago. It all sucked. But I was thinking today, I was like, we at most have 30 more Super Bowls left if we're lucky. Like, I take care of myself. You don't. You know you're going to start doing cocaine. That's a problem.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

But there's going to be a thousand more Super Bowls and we're only going to see 30. That's disgusting to me. That really made me feel sick. So join in in that.

[Bill Simmons]

I think about that all the time. How, when, when I'm finally dead, how mad I'm going to be. Not just that I'm dead, but I'm not going to know what's going to happen for the next 25 Super Bowls at BA. It's like, oh, shit. Yeah, I am. My lean is close game. I have two leans so far, and I'm still debating where to go with the game and probably we'll decide on Tuesday, but it Feels like the line is off and it feels like it's going to be a close game. Those are my two leans. I actually think the Eagles should be favored the more I stare at this. And I don't know what the Mahomes tax is at this point, but it feels like it's a field goal. Right?

[Cousin Sal]

At least can you say both those things? Like, I know most people, like Raheem has a model and most people have models. Might even have the Eagles by three at this point. And so. But can you also say, but I think it's going to be a close game because if you're going to lean model and Eagles and you think it's going to be a close game, how dare you go against Mahomes in a close game.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. Then the Chief should win the fourth game of a close game. I guess more like I don't think it's going to be a blowout. Like, I don't think either of these teams is blowing out the other team. Could one of them win by 10 points? 12. Sure. Um, but it feels like it's going to be a relatively close game. No blowout. And I just think the Eagles should be favored by like 2 1/2 on a neutral field. Yeah, they have more good players all over the place. They have an easier way to win than the Chiefs do. And you go back and you look at he's as great as the Chiefs were. The fact that they were 17 and two thrown week 18. They're basically 17 and one. You throw every week 18. But it just was harder for them week to week than when you watch this Eagles team just seems to be really crude. I mean, the Eagles have won 15 the last 16 pretty easily.

[Cousin Sal]

So you're taking the Eagles. That's okay.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm leaning toward the Eagles and I'm just afraid to go against Mahomes. Which is why the line is where the line is. That's why that's the whole point of this line is nobody wants to bet against the Chiefs.

[Cousin Sal]

I wouldn't look into the line to it, by the way. I'm going to pretend to get text from NFL GMs during this pot. I felt that was very effective with Priscilla last night with the NBA.

[Bill Simmons]

It's a great wrinkle for him. Yeah. All right. But the Memphis gm.

[Cousin Sal]

But I would disregard the line because I do have facts here. In the first 58 Super Bowls, only seven times as a favorite one and not covered. It happened with the Rams Bengals most recently. It happened twice in the last 17 years. So take Casey minus one and a half. Or take Philly Moneyline. You'll probably be okay. Right? Depending on.

[Bill Simmons]

That's a playoff manifesto staple. Especially at this time. You're just betting who you think's going to win. Don't worry about the line.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. So that's what I'll say about that. But I think you're right. It might be off. But I also think it doesn't matter because of that fact I just laid.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, it matters for teasers and stuff.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

If you can get Philly above 7. Pretty tasty. All right. So every year, and we've been doing this forever, I actually researched this. We were the first people. The first two people ever to like super bowl props. Yo.

[Cousin Sal]

You researched it, really?

[Bill Simmons]

The media? Yeah, we were the first ones. I don't think a lot of people. Good. Nobody ever talked about super bowl props.

[Cousin Sal]

It's true.

[Bill Simmons]

We felt like we were really going on a limb. We did a pod, like maybe the 2007 Super bowl, and we floated some props. And everybody in the world was like, what are these? What are these guys talking about? No. All these years later. It's a cottage industry. I don't think we get the credit. There'd never been a Super bowl prop before. We did a podcast.

[Cousin Sal]

I love it. We willed in it.

[Bill Simmons]

As far as we know, they.

[Cousin Sal]

Right. They actually didn't even exist. Like, first touchdown.

[Bill Simmons]

What.

[Cousin Sal]

What are these guys talking about?

[Bill Simmons]

We started everything.

[Cousin Sal]

You couldn't find it. You couldn't even bet it. So eventually we forced the books to actually come up with these.

[Bill Simmons]

That's actually not true, obviously. And the first time we watched the super bowl together, when it was the first day Jimmy Kimmel was doing a show, and we were in charge of monitoring the Tampa Bay Oakland game and coming up with jokes. And we were in a van, and you had this whole printout sheet of super bowl props that was like 58 pages. And we're just going through. And there would be silence and be like, hey, Simmons, what about Rich Gannon over under completions. And that was just the whole ride. So we've loved this forever.

[Cousin Sal]

That was a great find. When you could. You had a sort through the Internet wasn't what it is now. And if you could find a PDF where you could print all the props.

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Cousin Sal]

And it would send your printer into a tizzy, you know, It'd be like 25 pages. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Because it'd be the. All the HTML would be off. It would be like the margins would be too small. You'd have like these little crazy beautiful mind notes on each page. Now we just go to fanduel and there's all these hyperlinks come along. Beautifully separated. It's great. Let's. Can we start with MVP?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Because there's a couple. Mahomes is plus 110. Barclays plus 280. Hertz is plus 370. And the most interesting one was the field versus Mahomes is minus 150. And we always look at this and we always like it. And. But if you think. If you think KC is not going to win, this feels like a fun MVP bet because you basically get everybody else.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, that's true.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know if you could parlay it with other stuff.

[Cousin Sal]

I didn't look at it that way. That is good. And I was thinking, though, so we have to get in their heads, right? Is there Mahomes fatigue if the Chiefs win for mvp? Like, he didn't have a great game against Philly.

[Bill Simmons]

No, against Philly.

[Cousin Sal]

No, the last game. So he. He stayed under 200 yards but had three touchdowns and they had to give it to him. Right. So I'm trying to write a script for how Mahomes doesn't get MVP if the Chiefs win.

[Bill Simmons]

Is it.

[Cousin Sal]

Kelsey announces Thursday that he's going to retire after this game.

[Bill Simmons]

And he gets Xavier worthy like 8 for 1 20. There's that like Julian Edelman type of game that's sitting there. There's like the big Kelsey game. I don't know if any. The way they use the running backs, I don't see how either running back would be in it.

[Cousin Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

So you're looking at a crazy worthy game, a crazy Kelsey game or Mahomes if KC wins. Plus 110 is nice.

[Cousin Sal]

You talk about how like long come such a far way. However you say that we. You could live bet the mvp.

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Cousin Sal]

And remember, like Kadarius Toney was like a punchline. Now he had like a big game. He had a big punt return and a touchdown. Like, oh, man. But Mahomes was still favored. I remember looking at that like, you know, so that's something to look at that. I think choosing between Barkley and Hertz is really tough. If you take in the Eagles. I might just rather take the Eagles. I did look at defensive MVP as + 1500. Once the game gets to the 40s, you're kind of cooked. But nine out of 57 defensive players have won. And so that's like one out of six or one out of seven and you're getting 15 to one, it's not bad.

[Bill Simmons]

The problem with, the problem with taking the field versus Mahomes, I guess you get everyone on the Chiefs too with that minus 150. So it's a parlay of the eagle side which you could just bet straight up for plus 110, but then you're covered on every other non Mahomes thing. But I think the best value is Barkley at +280 because I think if they win, I think he's going to be the best player in the game. Would be my assumption. Like he gashes them a couple times. He's been the best part of the playoffs. It's a narrative that makes sense to me and I thought the odds were pretty good. What would ha. What would the Hertz game have to be for MVP? So he's throwing two touchdowns, probably one deep one. He's probably 20 for 27 for 255. He probably has one long run of like a 40 yard run. Maybe he's like 7 for 52 running and he's just. It's something like that, right?

[Cousin Sal]

I think you're right. But plus it's Barkley's birthday, you know, on the super bowl. So I don't know how much that factors in. Yeah. Turns 28. Is that what it is? And plus if it's plus two 80 and he turns 28. Am I wrong to say he's 28? That's. Yeah, that's pretty good numbers. But I think you're right. I don't know if Hertz getting the touchdowns on the tush push, if he gets like three of those and puts up good yards, if that's going to put him over the top. But it's, it's been Barkley's year. I think that's. That's probably the case for Barkley. Yeah. Plus two eighty is still good if it's close to three.

[Bill Simmons]

The Barkley bets that jumped out. So I've never monitored this, but There was a 25 plus rushing yards each quarter for plus 7:50.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

That I've never bet on and I have no idea if that's a good bet or not. It seems terrible. Two touchdowns is plus two 80. So you'd have to, you'd probably have to break one of those then maybe get one around five or six. Thought the odds were pretty good. There was one where him and Kareem Hunt. 200 plus rush yards is 3 to 1. So you figure he, if he got over like 131 40, if he thought Hunt was going to be in the 50s, 60s. That could get there. Three to one's nice, but I think the one I like the most is 169 plus rushing yards, which would be a new record is 5 to 1. So you just bet on that. And basically the bet is I bet that Saquon Barkley will break the record. 169. Boom. Five to one.

[Cousin Sal]

It's pretty good.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

I was looking at. You said Barkley two plus touchdowns is plus 270.

[Bill Simmons]

So that's the same 280 plus 280. Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

So that's the same odds as his MVP.

[Bill Simmons]

Right, right. So you just take that instead.

[Cousin Sal]

That's interesting. I think I might want to take that instead. I don't think there's a game where he's.

[Bill Simmons]

So you like that one the most. Do you have any other Barkley bets?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, well, it's funny you said that. Actually. This one was just texted me from Les Snead of the Rams GM. He said Kelsey, Kel Kelsey, 25 or more receiving yards in each half is. Is a good number there. So that. That happened already this year. And if that.

[Bill Simmons]

What's the odds on that?

[Cousin Sal]

It's like plus plus 220 or something. Oh, man. Oh, all right. Yeah. Yeah. So it's 307 yards over the last three Super Bowls. So I. I kind of like that. And I'd already hit against the Texans this year, so.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, so I had the Barkley one, the hurt stuff. There's an anytime TD for him for minus 115. And that's just one tush push. Right. If it's first and goal from the two, third and goal from the one. I gotta say, I was surprised that was the line. I thought that was gonna be like minus 140. It's just. It's almost like surprising if he doesn't get one, that one jump out to you.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. We go crazy about it on the ring of pregame show. And I don't know if there's like a million props so they'll throw in one. You could win on automatically there, but it's so easy there. It's minus 110 or right. Right in there. He 10 of the last 13 games he scored a touchdown. So why that should that be almost even odds. And they have a play designed for it, so it's almost suspicious. Here's another one that goes along with it. Shortest touchdown under minus one. Under one and a half yards. We used to love this one.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, wow. We bet that a bunch of times.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. So the vig is a Little High. It's minus 1 72. But we loved it before the tush push and now it's like, you know, it was twice. He, he did it twice. Last matchup twice. First San Francisco first time four to the five in the Super Bowl. Seven of the last nine Super Bowls have seen shortest touchdown under one and a half yards.

[Bill Simmons]

What are the, what are the odds on that?

[Cousin Sal]

It's minus 1 72. It's not great. So you might just want to take Hertz for the touchdown -110. But for seven of the last nine Super Bowls it didn't hit last year. So that's why I like it especially now. I really like that.

[Bill Simmons]

So Fando has, they have that, that anytime touchdown that like either first one or last one of the game that they're putting a pretty big thing on that you could get in. If it's an anytime TD bet and it ends up being the first touchdown in the game, you end up in this bonus bets pool. If it's the last touchdown of the game, same thing. And I think Kurtz was my favorite anytime touchdown bet. I bet that goes up. I think that's going to be like -135 by game time. Two other things with him, longest run was 11 and a half yards. And it feels like every game they have that one run where it's like the delayed QB draw and he's running to the right or the left and he just goes for like 30 yards. And I can't believe that wouldn't happen in this game once. So 11 and a half I really liked. And then longest pass of the game for him, 32 and a half yards. So. And this ties into some, some AJ Brown stats too. But when you look at the Chiefs, so they gave up in against Buffalo they gave up a 34 yard or a 24 yarder and 23 yarder. Against Houston they give up a 34 yarder, a 24 yarder and 24 yarder. So they do give up big plays. When you watch where it's like that bend but don't break, but you can get the, you can bust one on them. So I was thinking. I like that one too. The just longest one, 33 yard pass to somebody. AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, maybe it's got maybe Barkley on a wheel route. Do you think they'll bust one?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, I like that a lot. I mean I love Spagnolo's defense, but it does, you know, it takes a minute to settle in sometimes and I think you could Break a tackle or something in there. That's a good one.

[Bill Simmons]

What'd you feel about passing yards? There's two, there's two. 10.5 is the over under for Hertz. You could go 175 plus passing yards for him is minus 3 10. I, I think they're too goofy. I almost feel like the total pass yards is a stay away for him because we've seen games where they just run the ball all the time. We've also seen games where they varied out. I, I don't. Doesn't make sense to me.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. So I think you have to like script it out in your head. Right. Because for a lot of these last games he was winning with 154 yards passing, right?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

And then last week he kind of surprised us. He's like throwing on third and six. Like what are you doing? You have a fourth and one play. That never fails. Why are you throwing on third and sixth?

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Cousin Sal]

And he would complete it. Devonta SWEITH and, and A.J. brown, they had big games. So what do you feel? Do you feel like they're going to play catch up? If you feel like they're going to have to play catch up at some point or that hey, it's a Super bowl, the scoring just gets out of hand, then I think you go over. But otherwise if you're pro, Barkley on everything, I mean his three plus touchdowns hurts is 36 to one. Barkley's three plus touchdowns is 15 to one. So can have fun with those too.

[Bill Simmons]

So out of those Barkley hurts, what's your favorite one? I think I like the rush yard record for plus 5 to 1 on Barkley just for the hell of it. I like your two touchdowns and I like the anytime TD and the longest pass, longest run for Hertz. I feel like you at least split those.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. I also like Saquon or hertz to have two or more touchdowns at plus 170. I was like banging my head against the desk trying to figure out which of these two is going to get two or more. And then FanDuel has a spot for it where either they have like an either or guy thing. Saquon or hertz, two plus touchdowns plus 170. You're almost definitely.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh wow. That's, that's. Those are way better odds than the Barkley plus 2 80.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, you're gonna get, you're gonna be one away at halftime. Right. You're just gonna need some luck to push it over the top.

[Bill Simmons]

Too bad you can't hedge that. A.J. brown I didn't really have any stuff I like for him. Some of the, some of the stuff isn't out yet. That usually comes Wednesday, Thursday, like the completion bets and things like that. Right. But A.J. brown just seems hit or miss to me. I'm staying away. Any other Eagles bets that you're fired up about?

[Cousin Sal]

I like devonte Smith. I think they, they have for Eagles. Not, not too much like 70 plus for him is plus 20580 plus is plus 3 20. So if you got that long play in there and you think it's going to be him. We haven't done Chiefs yet. Right. You're going in order of the. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. So that's really it for. And I also kicker prop here Elliott over seven and a half. Like you think to yourself, oh this team's always going on 4th and 1. They don't have, you know they're not going to kick. He's gone seven straight games where he's got had seven and a half or more points and he had nine in the Super Bowl. So the Tush push doesn't really factor into like their scoring chances with Jake Elliott.

[Bill Simmons]

So what are the odds on the seven and a half?

[Cousin Sal]

It's just even odds. Yeah. Minus 1 10.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Cause one of the ones. One of the bets that's not out yet is the missed field goal thing for him. Cause he's right. Always feels like he, he has one at some point. All right, so on the chief side, some Mahomes bets that jumped out to me over 29 and a half rush yards just too many times with his legs. Like if you look at the biggest games he's played, the completions. I'm sorry, the carries are more exciting to me. Five and a half carries. Because you get that 29 and a half rush yards, you have the potential of the. Neil's not going to back the carries are the carries that's minus 140. So there's some cheap.

[Cousin Sal]

The Neils help you with the carries. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

This year he was 11 for 43 against Buffalo. He was 7 for 14 against Houston. Including the three nails at the end in 2023, 9 for 66 against San Fran, 6 for 15 against Baltimore and 6 for 19 against Buffalo. So the last five times he's had six or more. And then if you look at the Super Bowls, the other Super Bowls, the Philly won 6 for 44, the Tampa won 5 for 33, San Francisco 9 for 29. So the only time he didn't get five and a half out of you know, eight of the biggest games of his career and all the Super Bowls is that one Tampa game when he had five, not six.

[Cousin Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

So to me, over carries, minus 140, I'm putting the juice on. I'm doing it.

[Cousin Sal]

I like that a lot. Yeah, he infamously went under in yards when he had that eclipse. Right. Against San Francisco in the super bowl when he started taking kneels. I like. Much like you do. It hurts. I like. Over 11 and a half. Longest rush for Mahomes. He's hit this in four of his last five games, averaging 13 for a longest over that stretch. So, yeah, I mean that. I think that's how you play Mahomes. Yeah, I'd be a little nervous about.

[Bill Simmons]

The actual yardage, but so the other one, if you want to do a yardage bet, I would recommend the 40 plus rush yards from Mahomes. That's plus 180 and again 43 against Buffalo, 66 against San Francisco, 44 against Philly. So he's done it a few times. You're basically gaining 2 to 1 odds. But I think he's going to need to do it in this game because Phillies, the way they're going to probably play defense in him, they have those four guys, they play everybody else back, they fake blitz, they do all these different things. But if you're just rushing those four, he can just slide out and over and over again. Find these pockets. Yeah, I like him with his legs in this game. And he's healthy too. We know he's healthy.

[Cousin Sal]

He's healthy. He's also, there's a, there's a stat for him or a bet for him. Under one and under two and a half sacks that he takes. He's hit this in four of his last five. You know, it's. I mean, he knows when to take off. He's just the smartest there is.

[Bill Simmons]

So Mahomes under two and a half sacks, that's a good one because if, if he's over two and a half sacks, Casey's probably not winning.

[Cousin Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

So Kareem Hunt is somebody that really fascinates me anytime. Touchdown for him is plus 135. He scored in the last four games. Two touchdowns for him is plus 950. And the reason I mention it is because Mahomes, they don't run sneaks with him. So unless Mahomes scores from like the four yard line or the seven, like when it's around the goal line, they go with running backs. His 50 plus yards is plus 115 for rushing. 70 plus yards is plus 320 most rushing yards in a game if you like. KC is 7 to 1 for Hunt. But I, you know, I was looking back at the Houston game and then especially the Buffalo game. He was 17 for 64 in that Buffalo game and they threw to him once. Pacheco was 5 for 12. I think the Eagles are big. Pacheco's like a little guy. I actually think Hunt's going to be the guy for them in this game. And I feel like it's gravitating toward them anyway or for that anyway when the bigger the moment it is, it just seems like they like having Hunt out there. So I kind of like all the Hunt bets.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, he's their tush push, right? Like he's a, he's a wrecking ball at the one or two yard line. So they give it to him. He goes in Pacheco. I would only take his like receiving props. I don't, I don't think they trust him. I don't trust him as a running back. Over four and a half. Longest reception for Pacheco's hit 13 of the last 17. He averages like nine over that stretch. But let me, let me throw this by you. I'm putting a little on Mahomes for first touchdown at 18 to 1. I know because he got injured. They don't do the tush push. A little talked about play. It should be spoken about more is when he rushed to the line of scrimmage against Buffalo and did that end around that basically that bootleg to get the first down. I think Andy Reid wants to have an FU moment here. Whether it's a Philly special or something. I think I could see him wanting Mahomes to score from the one. I don't know if it's early on or late in the game, but you might get, you might get a sneak. I mean, I don't know why is he more likely to get injured? I know he got injured on the sneak years ago, but yeah, they've, they've.

[Bill Simmons]

Just tried again since he got hurt. Right along those lines. There was a Chiefs prop I liked. It was over four and a half guys that rushed the ball. And this basically goes down to P. Ryan. If P. Ryan P. Runs the ball, they get to five because Worthy has at least one carry every game. Hunt and Pacheco, Mahomes is going to run. So you're basically betting on P. Ryan. P. Ryan has no runs in the playoffs and the Chiefs always zag when they get to the Super Bowl. So I wonder, is there like the one. It's like third and nine. Oh my God. It's a draw draw play to P. Ryan. But I like the 4 half over I did.

[Cousin Sal]

It's going to come down to like a stupid replay because Mahomes you might get Pete Ryan, but it could be just like a little flip play where it counts as a pass.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, then it seems like a. Yeah, that would suck. Yeah, the, the Mahomes stuff. I love the stuff with his legs, the hunt stuff. I think he's going to actually, you know, be pretty prominently involved. The guy that I can't get a handle on is Kelsey, who's. Oh, you just figure the yards for all of his props are 5 yards higher than they should be because he said he's the most public prop bet there is. You can do 80 plus yards for him is plus 235. Seven plus receptions is plus 135. And then there's that 25 plus yards each half.

[Cousin Sal]

Each half.

[Bill Simmons]

Two to one. To me, he's a stay away. I didn't like how he disappeared in that last game. No Nakobe Dean. So maybe that's a way for him to. But I just feel like they're going to take him out.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, I'm torn here because maybe they stole enough money from us in the AFC championship game because we all bet Kelsey props. Right. So maybe that's okay. So maybe comes back and we know I gave you his super bowl numbers, right? Like 307, I think in three games. But there's another way to do this. I like, I'm looking at no Noah Gray for a long of 10 or more yards because the Eagles weren't great against the tight ends. Right. Like what was it? It was Zach ertz went for 110. They have like 10 catches or something last week, something crazy. Noah grace 10 or more for a long. He's hitting 12 of the last 17. So that could be.

[Bill Simmons]

What are the odds on that?

[Cousin Sal]

I mean it's just even evened up but you know, that could be something that.

[Bill Simmons]

That's a good one. They go to him a lot too. Yeah, I like that one. So you agree that Kelsey's a stay?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, I think the yards is just tough with him.

[Bill Simmons]

So I would do the first half.

[Cousin Sal]

Second half, that's it.

[Bill Simmons]

Game props. My favorite ones. Both teams get a fourth down conversion is minus 124. I, I don't, I can't remember the last NFL game I watched where both teams didn't get a fourth down. The Eagles seem to get at least one every game. Minus 124 seems like a layup.

[Cousin Sal]

And I had this written down. They, I mean they've gotten a fourth down conversion in every playoff game this year, both teams. So that's, that's five and oh and they're 70% plus on the year and that's top three in the league. So great.

[Bill Simmons]

There's another one that I wouldn't recommend but I thought was interesting just because I thought the odds would have been like more better for the better fourth down conversion in your own territory. Minus 114. Oh wow. Like why is that like plus 160?

[Cousin Sal]

Oh wow.

[Bill Simmons]

It's so weird to go go in your own territory. But if that's minus 114 then why wouldn't I just bet on both teams to get a fourth down conversion? That's the way to do it. So successful two point conversion. A bet that I think we've done the last couple years and the odds still haven't shifted enough on it. It's plus 175. It feels like we have one every year.

[Cousin Sal]

You know I looked at it and it felt like it, but it's. It's not. It's not.

[Bill Simmons]

It's not true.

[Cousin Sal]

No, it's not.

[Bill Simmons]

Did I tested that?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. I mean look at the scores. They're all like 20. You know, I think you need a guy, you need a kicker probably to miss at some point and some weird shit to happen. But are you looking for four both teams or one team? Is it? You said one team converts.

[Bill Simmons]

It says any two. Any success? Two point conversion is. Is my plus 175.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. All right. So I think you need like five touchdowns.

[Bill Simmons]

You can.

[Cousin Sal]

And one of them is a two point conversion.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe it's a stay away. How about a 60 yard reception for either team? Plus 435. 60 yard plus. That's like one worthy down the sideline or one A.J. brown. I wanted the odds to be better for that.

[Cousin Sal]

Seems like a Super bowl play maybe.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. And then this is one of my favorites. Philly wins the time of possession -128. I went back and looked and they've won like almost every week it feels like. And if you think they're going to win the game then they're going to win the time possession. I had the oh at seven and a half points as well. Did you have Jalen Carter over three and a half tackles and assists for plus 120?

[Cousin Sal]

I did write that down.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I mean, fucking maniac. How is he not going to get four tackles and assists?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, I had Dejan over or Dejean over one and a half assists. He's hit this in five straight and had Quinion Mitchell under a half of assist. He's five out of six if you go under there. By the way, I did have. Sorry, Kelsey. This could be a good. Kelsey one. Oh, Kelsey, first catch for Kansas City. Plus 2:30. Last two Super Bowls. He's had the first catch.

[Bill Simmons]

What was it? Plus 230.

[Cousin Sal]

Plus 2:30. Last 2 super was they had a 1 yard catch and a 20 yard catch.

[Bill Simmons]

My favorite prop.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And then we're going to take a break and then you're going to go through all your crazy props. All right, Chris Jones sack plus 136. So what do we know? What have we seen from the Eagles? Hertz will go back and if it's not there, he holds it on too long. We see guys go up the middle and get him and it seems to happen twice a game. That's exactly what Chris Jones was put on the earth to do is to push the line back and every once in a while he gets to the guy and I just was surprised. I thought that was going to be, I don't know, even odds. Plus 136. Pretty good free value.

[Cousin Sal]

I like that when they're switching in centers during the game and that means you can't really double team a Chris Jones. So it's pretty good. I'll have more to say about that. A a bigger moment. But yes, that there's nothing wrong with that. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, so those were all mine. We're going to take a break. We're going to come back. The cuz is going to rip through his favorites. And then the most important part of the podcast, the Gary Russell bet. Can't wait. Next.

[Cousin Sal]

There we go.

[Bill Simmons]

This episode is brought to you by UberEats. Whether you're ordering wings for the game, whipping up a seven layer dip, or ordering pizza, there's something about football that makes you want to eat. And this football season, Uber Eats has the best deals on game day food, no matter what you're craving. From two for one pizza. To buy one get one wings. Uber Eats will be dropping new deals each week all season long. UberEats, the official on demand delivery partner of the NFL, order now for game day. Terms and conditions apply. C app for details. This message is a paid partnership with Apple Card. If you want to take control of your finances, Apple Card is where it starts. A credit card that can give you up to 3% daily cash back on every purchase. I have one. I can tell you this is true. I know and love Apple Card. So many places I can use it. Especially during a busy time of year with football, basketball, the holidays all at once. I can use my Apple card on tickets to a game, a gift for my dad, or even tickets as a gift for my dad. Plus, anytime there's a new Apple product, it's a lot easier. Apply for an Apple card today. It's easy. Just go to the wallet app on your iPhone again. That easy? Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch terms and more at applecard.com all right, cuz you have the floor. Rip through your bets and then we'll do Gary Russell.

[Cousin Sal]

Let's do it. Any quarter to n00 +3.10. This has happened 25% of the games like 14 times. Like I think for the last nine, the first quarter's ended.00. I love the zeros everywhere. You can go on FanDuel and buy your your squares now, right? You don't have to get stuck with 25 at some shitty super bowl party and pretend you have a chance. And do the math all day with a girl who's selling Girl Scout cookies. Someone's, you know, great niece ends up winning it without paying attention anymore.

[Bill Simmons]

Or Daniel buying four squares and then three other squares for little kids and then just winning it.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. They haven't looked at the screen at once. So I love that that you could buy your own squares. KC7O is plus 650. Philly seven. Oh, first quarter is plus 650. I'd take a chance on those 650. Yeah. For first quarter. Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

Is there a seven to three?

[Cousin Sal]

Of course.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

Seven three zeros. Mix them all up. Have some fun. There's one for me.

[Bill Simmons]

That looks great. That sounds way more fun than being in a pool.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Okay.

[Cousin Sal]

Do it up. I would think you would like this. The Triple Crown bets. These are like the anchor bets you.

[Bill Simmons]

Were in house were doing right. I couldn't land on the right one for the right odds. I was looking at you. So you can bet. Mahomes throws for the most pass.

[Cousin Sal]

Good.

[Bill Simmons]

Barkley does the most rushing. And then. Oh, I'll get nuts with Xavier Worthy as most receiving. And that's my threesome.

[Cousin Sal]

650 right there. But if you anchor the two, if you could be at peace with the fact that Mahomes is going to have more passing yards. You know, not a. Not a certainty but you know like just live with it. And Barkley for be the rushing yard leader. Then put Worthy in, then put AJ Brown and then put Devonte Smith and you can have like a nice little, you know, three or four bets there pay.

[Bill Simmons]

So you're saying 10 to 1. So you're saying just do a whole bunch of them. Yeah, they do your Mahomes, everything man.

[Cousin Sal]

We got one game left.

[Bill Simmons]

Two or three.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, exactly.

[Bill Simmons]

And then we have Lucy Doncic on the Lakers to bet on. Like we're fine.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, we're good.

[Bill Simmons]

The NBA is here to save you crazy bets.

[Cousin Sal]

Luca first Ozempic shot plus 160 on Monday. I don't know how that happened.

[Bill Simmons]

Luca first gluten free diet consultation.

[Cousin Sal]

He's going to be like the, the Jonah Hill after. This is going to be such a practical joke.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean being in a really nice sunny city does have a way of making you feel bad when you're, you know, when you're. When you're pulling over the T shirt and it's a little tight because you're.

[Cousin Sal]

About to walk around. Not me, but yeah, him. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

All right. We got to do the Sal special. Eagles first half Chiefs game plus 7:50. It hit the last two years. Chiefs were throwing at halftime against a great one. Yeah. And the Eagles so plus 7:50. And if you want to go the other way. Chiefs first half, Eagles game plus 800. So a tie does not help you at half.

[Bill Simmons]

First half Chiefs game plus 7:50. I mean I could actually see that happening. I would have thought that would have been like +500.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, that's the one great one. All right.

[Bill Simmons]

Doesn't sound special. Fando should fucking give that to you. They should name that officially the cousin south special. People should know what it is.

[Cousin Sal]

Thank you. Thank you. Both teams complete the first pass minus 1:20. This one I got from GM John Schneider just texted me for the Seattle Seahawks. So yeah, both teams, first pass, first completion.

[Bill Simmons]

Both teams.

[Cousin Sal]

This has hit four in a row. All four, five, six, one yard passes. These guys don't screw around. I don't know. I don't see them going for the home run ball early on.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. So this is like second and seven. Let's throw the quick out to Noah Gray for four. Got her little shovel pass. Just let's, let's keep the clock moving.

[Cousin Sal]

Confidence builder only. Minus 4.

[Bill Simmons]

I really like that one.

[Cousin Sal]

Not great, but still exact scores. This is fun too. Casey to score exactly 30 is 17 to 127 is 11 to 124 is 10 to 1 five times this year it's hit on those three numbers for the Eagles. 28, 27 and 26. You got 22 to 111 to 123 to 1 five times those numbers of it feel good. Live it up, man. Live it up. Let's see. What else do I want to do? Oh, here's something interesting. So they have the playoff leaders, right? So up until like wild card saw that.

[Bill Simmons]

So isn't. Who's the guy who's still winning for receivers?

[Cousin Sal]

Diami Brown.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

229 yards. He's plus three 60. I think he could hold on. I think this is where he shines. I think he shines next Sunday by not being in the game. He is. Goddard has 188. So if you don't think Goddard will have 46, you're good there. Kelsey has 1 36. He would need, you know, 90 something and worthy as 130. I just think plus 360 for the leader at this point might be a a decent way to go.

[Bill Simmons]

I almost wonder if the move is to bet the over on Goddard. But then you also bet the Diami Brown bet.

[Cousin Sal]

Interesting.

[Bill Simmons]

You can hedge it smarter way, right?

[Cousin Sal]

See, you're smarter than I am with that playoff.

[Bill Simmons]

So playoff leaders. That's such a fun one. I can't believe. So Goddard's the favorite of minus 125. Diami Brown is plus 280. Oh, it's 280 now and then Worthy's 10 to 1. It keeps going. It keeps going.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. Well, if you think that 60 yard of the Worthy's coming, maybe that's the way to do it. But. All right. Braden man, Eagles punter under 55 and a half. Longest punt only over 55 four times all regular season. Who knows if he'll even punt, right? He had two against Washington.

[Bill Simmons]

His longest punt. Like you'd almost. That would almost have to bounce. Pick it up.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, I got that.

[Bill Simmons]

That's one of those that Quesi Adolfo.

[Cousin Sal]

Mensah, the Vikings gm does that one.

[Bill Simmons]

That almost would make me nervous that that line is so high. Like fanduel knows something.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh really?

[Bill Simmons]

It's like a giant putt.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, it is a lot. All right, Jersey number for the first touchdown. Over 15 and a half. You lose the quarterbacks, but you get almost every defensive player. You get Barkley, you get Goddard, you get Kelsey, you get Hunt, you get Peyton Hender shot. I Love it. Over 15 and a half. Even odds for that.

[Bill Simmons]

Even Odds.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. Well they have to have a number. They put it right at the kelsey line there.

[Bill Simmons]

15. Yeah. But there's gotta be some other player that's under 15. DeVonta Smith is under.

[Cousin Sal]

No, Hertz is under both quarterbacks. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Devonta Smith.

[Cousin Sal]

Yes. He's number six. A.J. brown. Yeah. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And A.J. brown's number 11. Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

I just, I just like having Barkley and Kelsey on the. For almost a year.

[Bill Simmons]

And Noah Gray.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. And my guy, Noah Gray. All right, let's see what else do we have here? They have next gen stats which are great. Did you see? I don't even know how they would do this because worthy to Register Fastest is +285 and he is the fastest. But so what if it's like an eight yard catch? Do they really just measure how fast he wouldn't be able to get speed? Probably in that spot. So you're basically betting that he's going to have the longest play at plus 285.

[Bill Simmons]

It's fast. It would have to be a pass that's at least 25 yards. Right. Or a run that's at least 25 yards. So the guy can get the full head of steam.

[Cousin Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

So that's why Barkley's the favorite for that one.

[Cousin Sal]

So he's. He's supposed to have the longest play. It's that simple. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I, I'm going to bet on Travis Kelsey. I just feel like he's looking fast lately. Just seems like. Just seems like now I would bet on Worthy on that in the three to one odds and then hope that he gets.

[Cousin Sal]

You could bet. I mean it's crazy. Imagine Jimmy the Greek looking at this. Like you could have worthy at 18 and a half miles per hour. Like that's minus 172 to do that.

[Bill Simmons]

Jimmy the Greek would probably end up saying something racist about the bet and make him very uncomfortable.

[Cousin Sal]

Position. First touchdown. What would you say? Which, which would you go with?

[Bill Simmons]

Probably running back.

[Cousin Sal]

Running back.

[Bill Simmons]

Tight end would intrigue me though because you have Kelsey Gray and Goddard.

[Cousin Sal]

Tight ends plus 4 20. It's not bad. That's what I was looking at there. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Tight end plus 420. First touchdown. I like that.

[Cousin Sal]

Right. I think it's still 4:20. You know we're talking about the fu moment for, for Reed against the Eagles. I know he's played him. Ready? Any quarterback to receive a touchdown 70 to 1 alignment to score 18 to 1. A quarterback either quarterback catches a pass is 21 to to 1. That's pretty good. I know These things don't happen a ton. But if there, this is it. This is your last chance to use the trick play for the year.

[Bill Simmons]

Right? Yeah, I, I can't see Casey doing it with Mahomes. So it basically come down to Jalen hurts. And then if you're Sirianni, do you want to rip off the Philly special or a play like that and then it doesn't work. Oh, look at fucking Sirianni trying to.

[Cousin Sal]

The Philly special line. Right? Yeah, but maybe, maybe, maybe the 21.

[Bill Simmons]

To 1 just to catch a pass could be interesting.

[Cousin Sal]

Right, Right. Then you get the stupid stuff. I mean, I, I, I'm going purple Gatorade. It's gone down already. It was plus 2:40.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, there's been action.

[Cousin Sal]

You could bet it on FanDuel now, which is a fricking bull miracle. Purple's down to 2 to 1. It was purple the last two years. The Chiefs won the last two years. It was purple. Why would they screw with a good thing? Purple has a chance to catch orange as the high. Orange is 5, purple is 4. Of all the Super Bowls, you know, got the Kobe thing. It's been five years since Kobe's gone. You could go purple there if you're the Eagles. You know, I think I just also, let's just talk about Kendrick Lamar as like an Easter thing going. Maybe it's in his rider that there has to be purple Gatorade. I don't know. Purple 2 to 1 seems like a.

[Bill Simmons]

Good, that sounds, I could probably get inside info on that. There's some sort of purple something. There's too much action on purple. Maybe it's, maybe it's that Luca went to the Lakers. Now it's like a whole purple week.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, that's the other thing. Yeah. That this is going to be.

[Bill Simmons]

Hold on. I'm going to throw up again.

[Cousin Sal]

You don't like that?

[Bill Simmons]

No, just Luca going to Lake makes me physically ill. Yeah. They're like, oh my God, he's lost 25 pounds and LeBron has him using the Versaclimber. It's like cool. Nobody's gonna win the title now for the next seven years.

[Cousin Sal]

Listen, no one was more surprised than LeBron. He found out. What was he getting like a bacon wrapped hot dog in New York after the Knicks game. He had nothing to do with this at all.

[Bill Simmons]

Nothing. He had no idea.

[Cousin Sal]

It's good.

[Bill Simmons]

No, had no idea. Completely shocked.

[Cousin Sal]

I'd like to see Big Dom get involved in this Gatorade scandal. Doesn't this seem like something Like Big Dom switches it out and some mobsters hit big on this prop. I think that's how this one's going down. John Batiste anthem. This one you might not be able to find on FanDuel. 120 and a half seconds. He did a minute 35, which is 95 seconds at the NBA All Star game in 2017. Does he show off? 30 seconds worth.

[Bill Simmons]

How many? 120 seconds. That seems like a lot.

[Cousin Sal]

Two minutes. So it's been under two minutes in five of the last six years.

[Bill Simmons]

I'll never forget when Louis K gave us the inside info and risked his job so we could win that prop. Is Louis going to be at this thing again?

[Cousin Sal]

Did we win?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, we won because he told us what was going to happen. He was in the building. Yeah, it's like the best inside info I had. The flip side of it though. Nick Khan, my friend Nick Khan, who runs wwe, we saw his son at UFC a few weeks ago and we were talking Royal Rumble and his son Sonny, who's a great kid. And it's like, sonny, what's gonna happen in the Rumble? And he goes, john Cena's gonna win the World Rumble. And then he's gonna wrestle Cody Rhodes at Wrestlemania. And we were like, holy shit. And then. So John Cena was one of the last two and then he lost.

[Cousin Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

So Sonny swerved us. He's learning from the best. Nick. Kyle. Wow. Wow.

[Cousin Sal]

If you can't trust wwe.

[Bill Simmons]

I can't trust a nine year old son of the guy who runs wwe. What can I? Who can I trust?

[Cousin Sal]

Come on, Nick. Nick's patting the son on the head right now.

[Bill Simmons]

He's a great job. Good job, son. Did it again.

[Cousin Sal]

Well, I'm trying to figure out, oh, two or more diss tracks from Kendrick Lamar regarding Drake is minus 400.

[Bill Simmons]

Wow. Well, he's definitely playing not like us.

[Cousin Sal]

Right?

[Bill Simmons]

So then they would have to. Maybe there's a medley count. What if it's a medley with like four songs in it?

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, they have to because everything's a medley now. They don't really stop down for new songs. And then there's dumb shit. There's Taylor Swift to announce pregnancy during or after Super Bowl. 16 to 1. Will he propose Travis after at 8 to 1? We might just have to do that so you don't throw up again.

[Bill Simmons]

Can we talk about the proposal? Because why is that still lingering in such a real way? Makes you almost think it's going to happen after the game. If the NFL was scripted, the Chiefs would win and then he would propose. So eight to one seems high. Right.

[Cousin Sal]

And he didn't go to the Grammys, which is going on right now, as we're also.

[Bill Simmons]

That's a better bet than Chiefs Moneyline because he's not going to propose if they lose.

[Cousin Sal]

That's true.

[Bill Simmons]

He's only proposing if they win.

[Cousin Sal]

Right, right, Right.

[Bill Simmons]

The Chiefs have lost by 10. Hold on. Let's go to the field where Travis Kelce has a special announcement.

[Cousin Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

It has to be.

[Cousin Sal]

Chiefs are going to try harder if they know he has plans to propose. I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

It gets so confusing. Probably not.

[Cousin Sal]

Do you know Metro Boomin?

[Bill Simmons]

What about him?

[Cousin Sal]

He's the first celebrity on stage. It's plus 125. He's the favorite.

[Bill Simmons]

Not Tommy Alter.

[Cousin Sal]

Tommy's fourth.

[Bill Simmons]

Tommy Alter is my number one.

[Cousin Sal]

I'm trying to think that might be it. Before we get to the good stuff there.

[Bill Simmons]

What are the odds of me being in New Orleans? Is it?

[Cousin Sal]

I wish you were. What do you. Do you have another NBA thing this week or something?

[Kurt Goldsberry]

I don't.

[Bill Simmons]

There might be more trades. I don't know.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh, oh, that's right. You got to stick around for these dumb trades.

[Bill Simmons]

As you know, because you've seen it. New Orleans is terrible for me.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. It's not fun for you.

[Bill Simmons]

I can't handle it. I can't handle it. So that doesn't mean I'm not going to go. But I, I, I know that it's. It's a bad city for me.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. Well, the bad thing is, like, you could not even be looking for trouble and get food poisoning from Roy Oysters.

[Bill Simmons]

How do you say that? Roy Oysters.

[Cousin Sal]

You know Roy Oysters?

[Bill Simmons]

Roy Oysters is a new state of comedian. He's touring with Jeff Ross.

[Cousin Sal]

Be the first diss track.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. Yeah. All right. So the quick setup for Gary Russell. This was a million years ago. Um, yeah, we were doing a Super bowl props, but right around when we invented super bowl props and 2000s and you did the Gary Russell bet, you had this big bet. You were all excited about it. I thought it was going to be like Ben Roethlisberger 280 yards or whatever it was. Nope. This was Cardinal, Steelers, Super Bowl. And your big thing was Gary Russell. What was it he would.

[Cousin Sal]

To not score a touchdown.

[Bill Simmons]

To not score a touchdown. You had studied it, researched it, and.

[Cousin Sal]

It was minus 1 50. He had, like two touchdowns all year. I was like, why is this only minus 150?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. So he scores in the first quarter. And I think we were watching the super bowl together and we're just dying, laughing. And then we get this email from somebody who said they were at a Super bowl party. It was a male and a female. They both started laughing. They didn't know who each other were. They were like, do you guys listen? Do you listen to the BS report? And they ended up getting married.

[Cousin Sal]

I can't see it.

[Bill Simmons]

So the Gary Russell pod has led to this pick, has led to a marriage.

[Cousin Sal]

It's led to a marriage, it's led to almost bankruptcy for me. I'm not very good at it. Now I pick an underachieving no name player to have a reception or a carry. I hit with like the concept is.

[Bill Simmons]

It'S the least sexy prop you can bet. But you're Adam and Lee. Hank Kranowski was the best one.

[Cousin Sal]

I think that was good. I took your Patriots tight end once. That Michael Huma. No, that one hit.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, Michael.

[Cousin Sal]

But honestly, I don't think I've, I've. I don't think I've hit since Fozzie Whitaker. I feel like the, and I feel like the Chiefs and Eagles have ruined the Gary Russell special because we kind of know all the third and fourth stringers, right? Like I'm not going to go with Kenny Gainwell or Johan Dotson or, you know, you said some OG P. Ryan for the Chiefs. Otherwise we know the top six receivers. So I had to dig deep. And here's what I ended up with.

[Bill Simmons]

I was never going to count you out. I knew you would find something. You weren't going to quit on Gary Russell.

[Cousin Sal]

No, I can't quit on Gary Russell. I can't believe we haven't heard from that couple. They must be. Must have split early on if that's actually how they met.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, maybe that's like a sad story now. Divorce the guy. Guys living with his parents, please reach.

[Cousin Sal]

Out to us if that's the case. Are you ready?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

Chiefs defensive lineman Mike Dana to record a sack at +235 is the Gary Russell special. 2025. Hear me out. 27 year old, 5th round pick out of Michigan. Yeah, he's on the postseason roster. Had a good game against the Bills. He had a sack.

[Bill Simmons]

He did. His name was. His name was mentioned a couple times.

[Cousin Sal]

He had a sack. And now it's going to be mentioned again and again.

[Bill Simmons]

Again.

[Cousin Sal]

He had six and a half sacks last year. He had five and 22. He had two at Philly in 2021. He's one of those guys. Simmons you talk about who was, like, really good in high school, and then some scouts saw that, and he was really good in college, and then he ended up being a pro.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, my theory. Yeah. When a guy is really good. High school, college, and then the pros. Yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

They get recognized. Yeah. Derek Henry there. Four tackles, a sack, two quarterback, hits, a force fumble against the Bills. Madden gives him an 85 acceleration and 90 tackling ability. Mike Dana. Go get it. My Gary Russell Special dude of 20, 25, a sack plus 235.

[Bill Simmons]

Grew up in Michigan. Played at Central Michigan University and the University of Michigan. Yep. Fifth round draft pick. Six foot one and a half, 251.

[Cousin Sal]

Oh, stud.

[Bill Simmons]

He's won two Super Bowls. Resigned with the Chiefs on a three year, $24 million deal in April. 2024. He's not chopped liver, that Mike Dana.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. No way.

[Bill Simmons]

Mike Dana. Great one. There we go. All right. That's our super bowl prop stuff. So you're doing a whole bunch of stuff this week. You're going to New Orleans. We're going to be doing a bunch of content, and eventually they'll give your pick. Do you want to do Parent Corner quick?

[Cousin Sal]

I could do it. I have one.

[Kurt Goldsberry]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, good.

[Cousin Sal]

Well, first of all, I crashed puberty night the other night. Remember, I told you?

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, yeah.

[Cousin Sal]

That happened Harrison and his friends. Yeah. There's an instructor, and we switch houses every Friday. They gather and there's something going on. And this week it was at my house, so it was hard to avoid, even though my wife's like, just get lost. You know, you're not mature enough for this. But. So I was gonna take my other son out to dinner, but I was like, let me check in on this. And they're showing a birth on tv. It's like, on my television, like a birth. And the kids are, like, covering their faces and everything. And then they have. Yeah, it's really nutty. And they have questions afterwards about pregnancy. And Harrison asks, can the baby poop when it's inside the mother? And I just, like, snickered. And I was like, I got to get the hell out of here. This is just too stupid. But that's part one. Part two. You talked about the Royal Rumble. I still love it. I still do like the pool, as long as there's, like, four people involved. So I was like, all right, I'll put up $50. My godson was here. My two younger sons. It was me. And then we picked numbers for Archie, who's in college. Right. So we got Six people or no, five people, six picks each. And it comes down to Jey uso, who Harrison has, and John Cena, who Archie has. And Archie loved John Cena. It was his absolute favorite growing up. So it's kind of poetic. And like you said, it would make sense that John Cena would at least come down to these two. He would. He would win, he would emerge.

[Bill Simmons]

They've been hinting at it for a month and a half. And this is the farewell tour. John Cena is going to be leading.

[Cousin Sal]

WrestleMania, and it doesn't happen for John Cena. Jey Uso ends up winning. Harrison wins the $50 and immediately makes a taunting video and puts it on the family text chain. It's like, your boy lost it for you, Archie. That's it for you. $50 right here. Sorry, pal. You know, all that stuff. And then Archie, a few hours later, says, I didn't even get to Congratulations, Harrison. I didn't even get to pick my numbers. I will be back better than ever next year. And so that we could go back to these days. And he pans the camera and he shows his laptop of Harrison having a temper tantrum when he lost the Royal Rumble.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, he's taunting him for behavior.

[Cousin Sal]

So I was like, this is great. This is the best thing I've ever done.

[Bill Simmons]

You've always wanted this created shit on.

[Cousin Sal]

The family text chain. Melissa's like, what's wrong with you people? So anyway, that.

[Bill Simmons]

Wow. She's definitely like, that's south side of the family.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, that's it.

[Bill Simmons]

So my son was going away this weekend, and I drove him. He was going on some skiing trip, even though he barely skis. And I drove him to a friend's house so he could drop his stuff off there because they were leaving from the friend's house after school. So we end up driving. So I drive Ben and his friend to school, which I haven't done in a while, right? Kid gets in, he gets in. His friend gets in the back. Ben, who was sitting in the front with me, then goes and gets in the back. So now I have no passenger seat. And I don't know, what's your stance on this? Because I'm like, what am I, the fucking Uber driver? He's like, well, I didn't want him to be alone in the back. I'm like, cool. This is crazy. There's nobody in the front seat. You guys aren't like eight. You're 17. You should be in the front. He's like, why do I want to sit back Here. And I usually say something.

[Cousin Sal]

I usually say something stupid, like in a butlered voice, like, you care to go to the parks? You know? And nobody ever gets it. And that's it.

[Bill Simmons]

So what are the passenger. What are the parent passenger rules when this happens? Like, Because I really feel like the kid should. Your kid should sit in the passenger seat. And then if he wants to talk to his friend, turn around and talk to him. But don't, like, leave the pastor's seat empty.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Three, basically adults. They're both juniors in high school. And I'm in the front, and they're in the back. It's just fucking weird.

[Cousin Sal]

Okay, so this is different, I think, than from when we were growing up and everything else, because. Are they showing each other stuff on the phone for the whole ride?

[Bill Simmons]

No, they just wanted it. They're both on their phone. I don't even know. Maybe they're texting about me with a doofuse.

[Cousin Sal]

Well, they can do that anyway. They could still do that. You're watching the road. Yeah. It's weird, man.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't like it. So I'm on the record with that. Another bank complaint now. Cause we're roughly around the same size. He just comes into my closet and just takes. You know, oh, I need a T shirt that. I'm tired of my own T shirts. I'll just grab one at Dad's. And he just goes in and he picks. And then I never see a T shirt again. And he also, like, picks out. He's ruffling through them. So it's like this pile on my shelf. So Marshalls, the whole thing of, like, I hope my kid grows, and we're around the same size someday. It's actually. When it actually happens, it sucks, because he just starts wearing my clothes. And then the third thing was he wanted to get some ski stuff for the trip. And he's like, no, I'm gonna do it myself. I'm gonna do it myself. I'm like, all right, this is gonna be a disaster. So he's like, no, no, I'm doing it myself. So he goes and he gets a couple things, and he thinks he's good. And then my wife came home, and she's like, I thought we were gonna get. No. He's like, I'm good. I'm good. So then he shows this bag of what he got, and he got, like, 40% of the stuff. Is there a bigger heat check than the boys in that 16 to 18 range who are like the. I got this. I got this. And they just are fucking terrible at everything.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Like, they don't have it. Guess what? You don't have anything. You're driving around with a broken windshield wiper that I told you to fix three weeks ago. And then it starts raining, and you put the windshield wipers on. You scratch the windshield like you don't have anything. It's like, you're not smarter than me. I am positive I'm smarter than you.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah. And ski trip is right there at the top of. I mean, you could forget a million things, right? Yeah. Yeah. That's bad to jump into first. One of the first things to jump into.

[Bill Simmons]

But it's like you become this basketball coach where you're bringing somebody off the bench, and the guy's just not listening to the plays. And then, like, dribbling in a triple team. You're basically Bronny James, and you're just, like, fucking. You're just supposed to run the pivot action to the side. This heat check age that boys have, it just makes me want to punch Ben, like, twice a week. And he'd probably take me in a fight, but can he just reach into.

[Cousin Sal]

Your closet and grab some ski clothes? I don't understand.

[Bill Simmons]

Listen to me. I told you to get oil. I told you. I know you told me. Yeah, but you didn't get the oil right.

[Cousin Sal]

I know.

[Bill Simmons]

Does it get better? Archie's now about to hit his 20s. Like, does it get better?

[Cousin Sal]

No, it's about the same. I don't know. Archie started cooking for himself now, which surprised me. So that's.

[Bill Simmons]

That.

[Cousin Sal]

That's good.

[Bill Simmons]

Does he clean up after?

[Cousin Sal]

Not that great at that, but, you know, it could be a little worse, but.

[Bill Simmons]

Because that was another thing with Ben. Like, our dog was sick for a week because he put the fucking cake frosting right next to the counter, and then he blamed the dog. Well, he shouldn't have gone up there and gotten it. It's like he. Murph has an IQ of 20. Like, you can't. Can't be, like, what things he shouldn't have done. He's an idiot.

[Cousin Sal]

But is this a boy thing? I mean, you have one of each, so.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know if I really think it's a boy thing. I just think they feel like they're always right, and they're also still stupid because they're not adults yet, and that front part of their brain hasn't fully formed. So it's a rare combination of irrational confidence and lack of experience with everything.

[Cousin Sal]

And I don't need help. It's what's like never asking for directions.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. And this is like the complicating me.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Just leave me alone. And then they're batting 28% decisions sitting.

[Cousin Sal]

In the backseat and then sitting in.

[Bill Simmons]

The backseat as I'm driving. So I feel like my son did.

[Cousin Sal]

A weird thing real quick about that. Like, not sitting. Not only did he not sit in the front seat, but I had to take a bunch of wrestlers to a tournament. He let, like, one of the wrestlers sit in the front seat with me. Like, instead of him. Instead of him. I was like, all right, I guess I'll talk to this kid for an hour in front of you.

[Bill Simmons]

They just don't like us. That might be.

[Cousin Sal]

Yeah, yeah, that might be it, too. Can they just say that?

[Bill Simmons]

All right. Because good luck in New Orleans.

[Cousin Sal]

There it is. We missed you. Come down, man.

[Bill Simmons]

You know, don't. Yeah, I can't be ruled out. Good luck with the betting and all the picking this week. And I will. I will see you on Sunday night after the Super Bowl.

[Cousin Sal]

Yes. Good job by you, buddy.

[Bill Simmons]

Good job by you. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Goldsberry and Sal. Thanks to Kyle and Ceruti and Gahal. As always, you can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. We have new rewatchables coming for you as well on Monday night. We did before sunrise last week, doing before sunset on Monday night. That's going up. Brought in a fourth person with me and Sean and Chris Ryan to talk about one of my favorite movies of the 2000s. You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. I'm going to see you definitely for another podcast Tuesday or Wednesday. Not sure which day, so stay tuned. See you during the week. Must be 21 plus in President in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + in President D.C. gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplyma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny in New York.