The Bill Simmons Podcast
Episode: The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal
Date: August 28, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons
Guest: Cousin Sal

Overview

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal continue their beloved annual tradition: previewing the AFC by breaking down every team’s win total (“over/unders”), sharing betting insights, and debating playoff probabilities. This episode is a deep-dive into the entire AFC, filled with statistical trends, informed speculation, signature banter, and the occasional sports gambling lament. The duo meticulously analyze each division, call out their favorite and least favorite teams, and sprinkle in both optimism and cynicism (and plenty of good-natured ribbing about each other’s picks).

Episode Structure & Key Discussion Points

1. State of the AFC and Setting the Stage

• The show opens, as usual, with Simmons and Sal discussing how much harder this year’s picks feel due to an influx of young, promising QBs and fewer obviously terrible teams.
• This season features newly complicated over/under lines, reflecting league-wide parity and Vegas hedging.
• Bill sets the rules: using consensus lines with “juice” considered and focusing on meaningful win totals.
• Notable Quote:

  “I think I’m going to have a regression season. I don’t have a feel for this year at all.”
  — Bill Simmons (04:15)

2. AFC East Breakdown

Buffalo Bills

Win Total: 12.5
Discussion:

• Bill goes all in on Buffalo:

  “I’m picking Buffalo to win the Super Bowl. I’m just going to do it.” (07:35)

• He praises Josh Allen (29 years old, reigning MVP) as the league’s top QB, drawing “Tommy Hearns” parallels for greatness without a title.
• Both observe a very soft Buffalo road schedule, particularly for top-tier home field and a forgiving slate.
• Sal’s only hesitation is teams gunning for Buffalo, but he still projects 12 wins.
• Notable Insight: “They officially have the easiest road schedule in the league ... 21-2 at home the last three years.” (09:51, Sal)
  Consensus: Bill: Over | Sal: Under (but only slightly)

New England Patriots

Win Total: 8.5
Discussion:

• Both Simmons and Sal think the Pats are undervalued and benefit from a new coach, a soft schedule, and incremental upgrades.
• Simmons:

  “This is the team that checks the most boxes for new coach, easy schedule, basically what Washington had last year ... I have the Pats over and I actually have them in the playoffs.” (13:04)

• Sal agrees, citing their “favored in 11 games” Vegas metric and new QB (Drake May) optimism.
• Extended riff on the Drake May signed pylon and studio ‘mojo’ ensues (15:31).
• Both expect New England to capitalize on early schedule and defense “leap.” Consensus: Over; both have them in the playoff hunt.

New York Jets

Win Total: 6.5
Discussion:

• Deep skepticism about Justin Fields as a functional NFL starter.

  “Is there any way to make Justin Fields a winning QB? ... He just wasn’t good enough.” — Bill (21:02)

• “Frisky” could hit 6 wins, but both doubt any higher upside.
  Consensus: Under

Miami Dolphins

Win Total: 7.5
Discussion:

• Both extremely bearish.
• Sal:

  “Mike McDaniel—I think is going to be fired by Halloween.” (25:25)

• Chronicled issues: bad O-line, suspect secondary, Tua’s health, Tyreek’s “misfit on this team.”
• Point out the Dolphins’ near-25-year playoff win drought and perpetual franchise dysfunction. Consensus: Both have 5–6 wins; Hard Under and “season from hell” candidate

3. AFC North Breakdown

Baltimore Ravens

Win Total: 11.5
Discussion:

• Perennial regular season juggernaut, playoff flame-outs.
• Sal: “If you look ... the best five-year run for any team without winning a Super Bowl: Buffalo and Baltimore.” (31:41)
• Mentioned challenges: less injury luck, aging Derrick Henry, Justin Tucker’s slight decline.
• “I just don’t see any scenario where they don’t win this division.” — Bill (34:08) Consensus: Both like the Over (Bill: 12-5, Sal: 11-6+)

Cincinnati Bengals

Win Total: 9.5
Discussion:

• Bill: major regression alert—defense is “abysmal” (31st last year vs. backup QBs), O-line bottom five, Burrow health concerns.
• “Did the Bengals achieve true perfection as a fantasy team...with no chance of being a real life playoff threat?” (36:55, Bill)
• Sal reluctantly gives 10 wins, Bill under with 8–9. Consensus: Bill: Under, Sal: Slight Over—but with minimal conviction

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win Total: 8.5
Discussion:

• Tomlin’s “forever 8–9 or 9–8” magic.
• Rodgers as QB; questions whether at age 41, he “wants to get hit anymore.” (44:30, Bill)
• Both see a tough closing stretch, aging roster, lack of offensive weapons. Consensus: Both Under

Cleveland Browns

Win Total: 4.5
Discussion:

• “Will this ever not be the dumbest team in the league?” — Bill (45:49)
• Panned for draft strategy, hopeless at QB (Bailey Zappe/Snoop Huntley/Flacco), management dysfunction.
• First coach to be fired? Stefanski also in the mix.
• Brutal schedule out of the gate—0–6 start possible. Consensus: Strong Under (Bill: “hard under,” Sal agrees, 4–5 wins “max”)

4. AFC South Breakdown

Houston Texans

Win Total: 9.5
Discussion:

• Everyone tabbing Houston as the favorite.
• Sal: “This offense was not smart ... they have a new OC, a new lineman, a new wide receiver ... I just don’t put them at 10.” (51:49)
• Both praise imposing secondary, elite pass rush; see schedule as only semi-tough. Consensus: Bill: Over (10-7), Sal: Under (9-8)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Win Total: 7.5
Discussion:

• Bill skewers team management for “Bradley Beal money” to Trevor Lawrence and trading picks for Travis Hunter.
• Sal: “You’re the only fantasy owner in the country who has three Jaguars on a squad.” (55:41)
• Sal—surprisingly bullish: “They’re winning the division. How about that?” (56:01)
• Bill: major doubts, 6–11. Consensus: Sal Over, Bill Under

Indianapolis Colts

Win Total: 7.5
Discussion:

• QB fiasco (Daniel Jones now starter, Richardson “quit on”); Sal calls “house cleaning triple crown” likely.
• Offensive line no longer a strength and receivers don’t mesh with current QB.
• “This could be a disaster.” — Sal (61:10) Consensus: Bill: 5–12, Sal: 4–13 (“way under”)

Tennessee Titans

Win Total: 5.5 (moved from 6.5 during recording) Discussion:

• Both love Cam Ward's intangibles, but lack of coaching and talent at pass rush/receivers keeps ceiling low.
• Bills and Sal both cite schedule and bad coaching as deal breakers. Consensus: Both Over at 5.5 (barely—projecting 6–7 wins)

5. AFC West Breakdown

Kansas City Chiefs

Win Total: 11.5
Discussion:

• Simmons flags the “every year, one big favorite misses the playoffs” trend but doesn’t believe it’ll be KC.
• Chiefs “won 15 games, should not have won 15” (70:06, Sal); won “by closing out games, red zone offense ranked 22nd.”
• Mahomes “just wasn’t good last year—for him.” (71:45, Bill)
• Grueling travel, 8 “non-traditional games,” but core coaching and defense stalwarts remain. Consensus: Bill: Over (12-5); Sal: Under (11-6)—both pick them for the division

Denver Broncos

Win Total: 9.5
Discussion:

• Simmons’ “big swing” pick for 2025:

  “I think this is going to be this year’s Lions. It’s lined up for them to be really good.” (77:13)

• Massive home field, elite defense, offensive line, and Bo Nix as a breakout QB
• Sal: “You build a team like this ... great line, solid defense. The luck is going to turn.” (76:52) Consensus: Both Over (Bill: 12+, Sal: 10–7)

Los Angeles Chargers

Win Total: 9.5
Discussion:

• Both lament another “most annoying team in football” campaign, citing Herbert’s “500” pedigree, a major O-line injury to Slater, weak home-field, and pessimism about true upside with Harbaugh.
• Bill debuts:

  “Justin 500.” (82:31)
  Consensus: Under

Las Vegas Raiders

Win Total: 6.5
Discussion:

• Upgraded at QB (Geno Smith), coaching (Pete Carroll), and running back (Genti).
• Weak secondary but schedule is easiest vs. pass, indoor games favor Geno Smith.
• Both see 9 wins as attainable—the rare “sneaky playoff team.”

  “They’re already invited [to the Shakey’s game playoff].” — Bill (87:03) Consensus: Over; Bill puts them in the playoffs at 9–8

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I have the Pats over and I actually have them in the playoffs. And you can’t call me Homer ... last year I was adamant they were going to be the worst team in the league.”
  — Bill Simmons (13:04)
• “No one’s begging to be fired more than Mike McDaniel.”
  — Sal, on the Dolphins coach (24:32)
• “Will this ever not be the dumbest team in the league?”
  — Bill, about the Browns (45:49)
• “Did the Bengals achieve true perfection as a fantasy team ... with no chance of being a real life playoff threat?”
  — Bill (36:55)
• “I’m just all in on the Josh Allen magical proper ride year.”
  (07:42, Bill, going all in on Buffalo)
• “I don’t want to bank on them winning 10 games with the offensive line and the defense. I’m not doing it.”
  — Bill, on the Bengals (39:12)
• “Justin 500.”
  — Bill’s new nickname for Justin Herbert (82:31)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• AFC East Intro: 02:29
• Buffalo Bills: 06:01 – 11:44
• New England Patriots: 11:53 – 20:22
• New York Jets: 20:24 – 23:19
• Miami Dolphins: 23:47 – 27:42
• AFC North Intro: 31:02
• Ravens: 31:02 – 35:17
• Bengals: 35:17 – 40:13
• Steelers: 40:13 – 45:23
• Browns: 45:23 – 49:02
• AFC South Intro: 50:59
• Houston Texans: 50:59 – 54:17
• Jaguars: 54:17 – 57:48
• Colts: 57:48 – 61:23
• Titans: 61:41 – 66:12
• AFC West Intro: 68:59
• Chiefs: 69:01 – 75:10
• Denver Broncos: 75:27 – 78:33
• Chargers: 78:33 – 83:08
• Raiders: 83:08 – 87:13

Tone & Style

• Conversational, sharp, data-driven, and filled with signature Simmons/Sal sarcasm, exasperation, and “inside baseball” gambling chatter.
• Interspersed with jokes about each other’s fantasy teams, historical context, as well as “deep cuts” like signed pylons and wrestling analogies.
• Playful but forthright about their own past prediction failures.

Final AFC Picks (2025) — Consensus Highlights

• Division Winners:
  • AFC East: Buffalo
  • North: Baltimore
  • South: Houston (Sal leans Jags)
  • West: KC (Bill loves Denver)
• AFC Wild Cards:
  • Favorites: NE, Las Vegas (Bill), Denver, Bengals (Sal)
• Biggest Overrated: Bengals, Chargers, Dolphins
• Biggest Sleeper/Playoff Surprises: Patriots, Raiders, Broncos
• Teams to Fade: Colts, Browns, Dolphins

This summary covers all the essential moments, debates, jokes, and rigorous analysis that make the Over/Unders special a signature event for NFL and sports gambling fans alike. Perfect for catching up or referencing as your own picks season unfolds.