The Bill Simmons Podcast
Episode: The Annual NFC Over/Unders with Cousin Sal
Date: August 28, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons (The Ringer)
Guest: Cousin Sal
Episode Overview
This annual deep dive is part two of Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal’s legendary NFL over/unders tradition, now in its 19th year. Having covered the AFC in part one, they turn their focus to the NFC division by division, processing projected win totals, playoff odds, and division races for all 16 teams, with the usual mix of analysis, Big Picture digressions, sarcastic jokes, and “irrational fan” angst. The focus is on predictions, pattern recognition, and gambling angles for the 2025 season, with the two hosts offering both consensus and disagreements—plus friendly bets, some soul-searching about rooting for doomed teams, and a recurring lament about overfitting previous trends. The tone is passionate, irreverent, and sharp, but always driven by true football obsessiveness.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. NFC East Breakdown
Philadelphia Eagles
- Line: 11.5 wins
- Both acknowledge Eagles’ dominance in roster-building, but feel queasy about the schedule gauntlet.
- Quote (Bill, 09:21): "They're going to be really good. I don't see how they don't go 12 and 5."
- Simmons likens the Eagles to the early 2000s Patriots: “the smartest team” with “little gimmicky stuff” and mastery of the trenches (07:15).
- Sal: “No team has repeated as NFC East champ for 21 years… The only thing I have going for me.” (04:40)
- Both pick over or right near the line—Simmons at 12–5, Sal at 11–6 (just under).
Washington Commanders
- Line: 9.5 wins
- Identified as a classic regression candidate: won too many close games last year, Hail Mary luck, old roster.
- Sal: "Oldest team in the NFL in 13 years... not a lot of depth there" (11:24).
- Simmons: “Not replicable… their defense was awful against good offenses” (12:05).
- Both confidently on the under.
Dallas Cowboys
- Line: 7.5 wins
- Bill roasts the Cowboys’ off-season and coaching staff.
- Sal, as a fan, confesses to “overcome with negativity” (16:32) and predicts out-slugfests on offense because they “can’t stop the run.”
- Quote (Bill, 17:12): "They can't run the ball and they can't stop the run. And they also have a brutal schedule."
- Both pick under—Bill with 5–12, Sal with 7–10.
New York Giants
- Line: 8 or 8.5 wins
- Intrigue over rookie QB Jackson Dart.
- Bill: “Might have the best D-line in the league… they’re going to be a scary team with a lead” (21:28).
- Schedule is hellish; both want to buy in, but can’t justify more than seven wins.
- Bill tempts Sal with plus-money bets, suggesting Giants could be this year's spoiler.
2. NFC North Analysis
Detroit Lions
- Line: 10.5 wins
- Acknowledgment of an offensive juggernaut last year, but major coordinator departures and O-line losses loom.
- Bill flags the “year from hell” potential and OC transition: "It is a big deal when you have the wrong coordinator" (30:05).
- Sal is bullish: “I have 12 wins and a one seed” (29:56); Bill goes under with 10–7.
Green Bay Packers
- Line: 9.5 wins
- Both bullish; see upward trajectory with strong coaching, skill talent, and Love’s improvement.
- Simmons: "LaFleur is 67 and 33 as a head coach. You know and it doesn't seem to matter what kind of injury luck they have" (33:52).
- Both pick over; Simmons name-checks Jordan Love as an MVP long shot (34:36).
Minnesota Vikings
- Line: 9.5 wins
- Stuck on the J.J. McCarthy question: "Who has a wider ceiling floor disparity?" (35:39).
- Sal has under at 7 wins, pointing to regression on takeaways and close-game luck.
- Simmons not as down, but unsold: 9–8 or 8–9 range.
Chicago Bears
- Line: 7.5 wins
- Debate around rookie head coach Ben Johnson and loaded skill positions for Caleb Williams.
- Simmons bullish, expecting a breakout: “I think they go 10 and 7. I'm way over. I have them in the playoffs” (44:23).
- Sal skeptical, leans under, citing turnover and fumble luck and no faith in rookie QBs: “He was sacked 68 times—that worries me” (43:41).
3. NFC South Insights
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Line: 9.5 wins
- The “slow start, fast finish” candidate; both like their offense led by Mayfield, big-name weapons, and rookie Egbuka.
- Sal predicts 12–5 Super Bowl run: "Buccaneers are going [to the Super Bowl] in February" (50:36).
- Both go over and see Tampa as the division class.
Atlanta Falcons
- Line: 7.5 wins
- All-in roster choices but fraught with risk—QB Penix is the X-factor.
- Sal goes over based on a weak division ("they could go 5 and 1”), Bill goes solid under after right tackle injury (54:40).
Carolina Panthers
- Line: 6.5 wins
- Defense expected to be horrible.
- Bill: “I think the over is too high… I have no idea if Canales is a good coach. Terrible secondary, easier schedule, but… they’re punting” (57:30).
- Both go under.
New Orleans Saints
- Line: 4.5 wins
- Called a candidate for worst record. Loss of coaching/revolving QBs makes for a bleak outlook.
- “Has there ever been a less scary trio than Rattler, Shuck and Haner? This is like a toddler coming at you with a bag of cotton balls.” —Sal (59:10)
- Simmons: only 1 point in his roster rankings (60:12).
- Both take a strong under.
4. NFC West Deep Dive
San Francisco 49ers
- Line: 10.5 wins
- “Football fans get amnesia… San Francisco was 6 and 11 last year” (62:22).
- Both call the 49ers a top-heavy, injury-vulnerable team, skeptical of returning to prior heights despite an easy schedule.
- Bill ultimately goes under at 8–9, Sal at 10–7.
Los Angeles Rams
- Line: 9.5 wins
- Stafford’s health is the wildcard (“Can he hold up?”—67:28).
- Sal fades them, projecting injuries and QB downgrades, Bill is more optimistic, going over at 10 wins, trusting McVay’s magic.
Arizona Cardinals
- Line: 8.5 wins
- The blogger/analyst “hip pick,” without marquee talent but with praise for Gannon's coaching.
- Bill: “I just didn’t [see the talent]…” (70:30).
- Sal is bullish, picking 11–6 and a division title.
Seattle Seahawks
- Line: Not specified
- Bill’s “Nobody Believes in Us” team; praises retooled coaching, running game, and Darnold takeover (“14–3 last year,” 72:59).
- Sal sees small regression (9–8), not as high.
- Bill calls them a playoff lock and loves their schedule.
Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments
- Bill on Eagles: “They built lines in and out, which now everybody’s stealing. They’re just the smartest team. This was what the Patriots were in the 2000s.” (07:15)
- Sal’s NFC East torment: “I want to predict an Eagles demise more than anybody. But I think it would be disingenuous…” (04:40)
- On Washington’s luck: “This is the all-time regression candidate. There’s a million things…” —Bill (11:13)
- Cowboys misery: “I’m overcome with negativity… I’m on too many Cowboys text threads and Twitter accounts and newsletters to have a proper perspective.” —Sal (16:32)
- On Detroit’s regression risk: “It is a big deal when you have the wrong coordinator.” —Bill (30:05)
- On Jordan Love/Packers: "If you think Green Bay could be the one seed you have to bet love 25 to 1." (34:36)
- Vikings in the regression crosshairs: “I have them with seven wins. What do you have?” —Sal (38:13)
- Optimism on Bears: “Classic rookie quarterback… loaded situation since Mahomes.” —Bill (43:20)
- On NFC South QB tiers: “Has there ever been a less scary trio than Rattler, Shuck and Haner? … Like a toddler with a bag of cotton balls.” —Sal (59:10)
- Arizona hipster love: “I think Gannon has a shot at coach of the year... it actually comes together for the Arizona Cardinals.” —Sal (71:14)
- On Seattle Seahawks: “This is the nobody believes in us team. Everybody believes in the Cardinals. Who’s making cases for the Seahawks?” —Bill (72:17)
Key Timestamps for Important Segments
- NFC East Eagles/Commanders/Cowboys/Giants: 03:58 – 24:48
- NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay/Minnesota/Chicago): 27:37 – 45:24
- NFC South (Tampa/Atlanta/Carolina/New Orleans): 47:26 – 62:03
- NFC West (San Francisco/LA Rams/Arizona/Seattle): 62:03 – 75:17
- Wild Card & Playoff Picks, Wrap-up: 74:55 – 77:10
NFC Playoff Picks
Bill Simmons:
- Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, Tampa, Seattle
- Wild Cards: Detroit, Chicago, Rams
- New Playoff Teams: Chicago, Seattle
Cousin Sal:
- Division winners: Eagles, Lions, Bucs, Cardinals
- Wild Cards: Packers, 49ers, Falcons
- Has two NFC South teams (!)
Final Thoughts
- Sharp, lively, and self-effacing banter throughout: Sal and Bill challenge each other’s blindspots and instincts, keeping score on past bad bets while identifying possible “nobody believes in us” angles, regression teams, and shiny new-coach traps.
- Bill seems highest on the Eagles, Green Bay, and Seattle, while Sal is bullish on Detroit, Tampa, and the Cardinals.
- The duo warn listeners not to overfit last season’s surprise outcomes and to beware tempting “easy” unders.
- Closing wagering confessions anchor the show in classic BS pod tradition.
“We're bringing the SEC in to take their place.” —Bill, on relegating the NFC South (62:03)
Good job by you, good job by you!