The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: The Annual NFC Over/Unders with Cousin Sal

Date: August 28, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons (The Ringer)
Guest: Cousin Sal

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Episode Overview

This annual deep dive is part two of Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal’s legendary NFL over/unders tradition, now in its 19th year. Having covered the AFC in part one, they turn their focus to the NFC division by division, processing projected win totals, playoff odds, and division races for all 16 teams, with the usual mix of analysis, Big Picture digressions, sarcastic jokes, and “irrational fan” angst. The focus is on predictions, pattern recognition, and gambling angles for the 2025 season, with the two hosts offering both consensus and disagreements—plus friendly bets, some soul-searching about rooting for doomed teams, and a recurring lament about overfitting previous trends. The tone is passionate, irreverent, and sharp, but always driven by true football obsessiveness.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFC East Breakdown

Philadelphia Eagles

• Line: 11.5 wins
• Both acknowledge Eagles’ dominance in roster-building, but feel queasy about the schedule gauntlet.
• Quote (Bill, 09:21): "They're going to be really good. I don't see how they don't go 12 and 5."
• Simmons likens the Eagles to the early 2000s Patriots: “the smartest team” with “little gimmicky stuff” and mastery of the trenches (07:15).
• Sal: “No team has repeated as NFC East champ for 21 years… The only thing I have going for me.” (04:40)
• Both pick over or right near the line—Simmons at 12–5, Sal at 11–6 (just under).

Washington Commanders

• Line: 9.5 wins
• Identified as a classic regression candidate: won too many close games last year, Hail Mary luck, old roster.
• Sal: "Oldest team in the NFL in 13 years... not a lot of depth there" (11:24).
• Simmons: “Not replicable… their defense was awful against good offenses” (12:05).
• Both confidently on the under.

Dallas Cowboys

• Line: 7.5 wins
• Bill roasts the Cowboys’ off-season and coaching staff.
• Sal, as a fan, confesses to “overcome with negativity” (16:32) and predicts out-slugfests on offense because they “can’t stop the run.”
• Quote (Bill, 17:12): "They can't run the ball and they can't stop the run. And they also have a brutal schedule."
• Both pick under—Bill with 5–12, Sal with 7–10.

New York Giants

• Line: 8 or 8.5 wins
• Intrigue over rookie QB Jackson Dart.
• Bill: “Might have the best D-line in the league… they’re going to be a scary team with a lead” (21:28).
• Schedule is hellish; both want to buy in, but can’t justify more than seven wins.
• Bill tempts Sal with plus-money bets, suggesting Giants could be this year's spoiler.

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2. NFC North Analysis

Detroit Lions

• Line: 10.5 wins
• Acknowledgment of an offensive juggernaut last year, but major coordinator departures and O-line losses loom.
• Bill flags the “year from hell” potential and OC transition: "It is a big deal when you have the wrong coordinator" (30:05).
• Sal is bullish: “I have 12 wins and a one seed” (29:56); Bill goes under with 10–7.

Green Bay Packers

• Line: 9.5 wins
• Both bullish; see upward trajectory with strong coaching, skill talent, and Love’s improvement.
• Simmons: "LaFleur is 67 and 33 as a head coach. You know and it doesn't seem to matter what kind of injury luck they have" (33:52).
• Both pick over; Simmons name-checks Jordan Love as an MVP long shot (34:36).

Minnesota Vikings

• Line: 9.5 wins
• Stuck on the J.J. McCarthy question: "Who has a wider ceiling floor disparity?" (35:39).
• Sal has under at 7 wins, pointing to regression on takeaways and close-game luck.
• Simmons not as down, but unsold: 9–8 or 8–9 range.

Chicago Bears

• Line: 7.5 wins
• Debate around rookie head coach Ben Johnson and loaded skill positions for Caleb Williams.
• Simmons bullish, expecting a breakout: “I think they go 10 and 7. I'm way over. I have them in the playoffs” (44:23).
• Sal skeptical, leans under, citing turnover and fumble luck and no faith in rookie QBs: “He was sacked 68 times—that worries me” (43:41).

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3. NFC South Insights

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Line: 9.5 wins
• The “slow start, fast finish” candidate; both like their offense led by Mayfield, big-name weapons, and rookie Egbuka.
• Sal predicts 12–5 Super Bowl run: "Buccaneers are going [to the Super Bowl] in February" (50:36).
• Both go over and see Tampa as the division class.

Atlanta Falcons

• Line: 7.5 wins
• All-in roster choices but fraught with risk—QB Penix is the X-factor.
• Sal goes over based on a weak division ("they could go 5 and 1”), Bill goes solid under after right tackle injury (54:40).

Carolina Panthers

• Line: 6.5 wins
• Defense expected to be horrible.
• Bill: “I think the over is too high… I have no idea if Canales is a good coach. Terrible secondary, easier schedule, but… they’re punting” (57:30).
• Both go under.

New Orleans Saints

• Line: 4.5 wins
• Called a candidate for worst record. Loss of coaching/revolving QBs makes for a bleak outlook.
• “Has there ever been a less scary trio than Rattler, Shuck and Haner? This is like a toddler coming at you with a bag of cotton balls.” —Sal (59:10)
• Simmons: only 1 point in his roster rankings (60:12).
• Both take a strong under.

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4. NFC West Deep Dive

San Francisco 49ers

• Line: 10.5 wins
• “Football fans get amnesia… San Francisco was 6 and 11 last year” (62:22).
• Both call the 49ers a top-heavy, injury-vulnerable team, skeptical of returning to prior heights despite an easy schedule.
• Bill ultimately goes under at 8–9, Sal at 10–7.

Los Angeles Rams

• Line: 9.5 wins
• Stafford’s health is the wildcard (“Can he hold up?”—67:28).
• Sal fades them, projecting injuries and QB downgrades, Bill is more optimistic, going over at 10 wins, trusting McVay’s magic.

Arizona Cardinals

• Line: 8.5 wins
• The blogger/analyst “hip pick,” without marquee talent but with praise for Gannon's coaching.
• Bill: “I just didn’t [see the talent]…” (70:30).
• Sal is bullish, picking 11–6 and a division title.

Seattle Seahawks

• Line: Not specified
• Bill’s “Nobody Believes in Us” team; praises retooled coaching, running game, and Darnold takeover (“14–3 last year,” 72:59).
• Sal sees small regression (9–8), not as high.
• Bill calls them a playoff lock and loves their schedule.

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Bill on Eagles: “They built lines in and out, which now everybody’s stealing. They’re just the smartest team. This was what the Patriots were in the 2000s.” (07:15)
• Sal’s NFC East torment: “I want to predict an Eagles demise more than anybody. But I think it would be disingenuous…” (04:40)
• On Washington’s luck: “This is the all-time regression candidate. There’s a million things…” —Bill (11:13)
• Cowboys misery: “I’m overcome with negativity… I’m on too many Cowboys text threads and Twitter accounts and newsletters to have a proper perspective.” —Sal (16:32)
• On Detroit’s regression risk: “It is a big deal when you have the wrong coordinator.” —Bill (30:05)
• On Jordan Love/Packers: "If you think Green Bay could be the one seed you have to bet love 25 to 1." (34:36)
• Vikings in the regression crosshairs: “I have them with seven wins. What do you have?” —Sal (38:13)
• Optimism on Bears: “Classic rookie quarterback… loaded situation since Mahomes.” —Bill (43:20)
• On NFC South QB tiers: “Has there ever been a less scary trio than Rattler, Shuck and Haner? … Like a toddler with a bag of cotton balls.” —Sal (59:10)
• Arizona hipster love: “I think Gannon has a shot at coach of the year... it actually comes together for the Arizona Cardinals.” —Sal (71:14)
• On Seattle Seahawks: “This is the nobody believes in us team. Everybody believes in the Cardinals. Who’s making cases for the Seahawks?” —Bill (72:17)

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• NFC East Eagles/Commanders/Cowboys/Giants: 03:58 – 24:48
• NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay/Minnesota/Chicago): 27:37 – 45:24
• NFC South (Tampa/Atlanta/Carolina/New Orleans): 47:26 – 62:03
• NFC West (San Francisco/LA Rams/Arizona/Seattle): 62:03 – 75:17
• Wild Card & Playoff Picks, Wrap-up: 74:55 – 77:10

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NFC Playoff Picks

Bill Simmons:

• Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, Tampa, Seattle
• Wild Cards: Detroit, Chicago, Rams
• New Playoff Teams: Chicago, Seattle

Cousin Sal:

• Division winners: Eagles, Lions, Bucs, Cardinals
• Wild Cards: Packers, 49ers, Falcons
• Has two NFC South teams (!)

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Final Thoughts

• Sharp, lively, and self-effacing banter throughout: Sal and Bill challenge each other’s blindspots and instincts, keeping score on past bad bets while identifying possible “nobody believes in us” angles, regression teams, and shiny new-coach traps.
• Bill seems highest on the Eagles, Green Bay, and Seattle, while Sal is bullish on Detroit, Tampa, and the Cardinals.
• The duo warn listeners not to overfit last season’s surprise outcomes and to beware tempting “easy” unders.
• Closing wagering confessions anchor the show in classic BS pod tradition.

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“We're bringing the SEC in to take their place.” —Bill, on relegating the NFC South (62:03)

Good job by you, good job by you!

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

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[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

With cousin Sal. You're on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday during the season and we have all these cool pairings. We got a YouTube channel. We're going to be putting up great shorts for bets. So anytime college football you get excited about. I really like Baylor. Today you just like do the selfie video. Throw it on there.

[Sal]

Good pull with Balor.

[Bill Simmons]

That is like you like Bay.

[Sal]

That's nice. That's nice. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm actually going to watch college football.

[Sal]

And it's live too, so if I have to drop a deuce, you're coming with me. I'll bring the laptop in. It's a lot of fun.

[Bill Simmons]

Who am I betting on for the OSU game?

[Sal]

I like. Is this going to air before that? Yeah. I like Texas. I think they're in a good spot.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, we did for part one, we covered the AFC in our annual over under podcast, which we've been doing. This is the 19th year for us. In part two, we're going to be.

[Sal]

Doing the NFC and we're skipping the NFC East. I'm fine.

[Bill Simmons]

We're doing all 16 teams, including yours. The sad sack, Dallas Cowboys. It's all coming up next. We're going to take a break. We're going to Pearl Jam and then the NFC East. All right, you were dreading this. We're gonna cover the NFC east and do over unders. I'll just tell a story before we do it, though. So I'm getting a colonoscopy in September, but I had somebody. Have you had one? What was the clean out drill? How many days?

[Sal]

That's the worst part. Yeah, I think it was like a little more than a day.

[Bill Simmons]

So I scheduled it for a Monday near the end of the month. And I was gonna do it, you know, do we do guest alliance on Sunday night? I'm like, that's fine. I'm not gonna. So my wife was like, you can't do that on a Monday. Like you're. Don't you do your podcast live on Sunday with Sal? And I was like, you're right.

[Sal]

That's worse than a fall wedding to me. Like scheduling colonoscopy.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, so either I could move it or is it funnier if I have it the next day and I take the clean out stuff and we're just live on YouTube and I might have to run off like twice.

[Sal]

I like that.

[Bill Simmons]

Is that better for you?

[Sal]

Time? Yeah. I'll do your voice while you're. That's fun.

[Bill Simmons]

Do we need. Should we have somebody on the. On the phone or something? Somebody you could talk to? If I'm like, oh, and I just have to run.

[Sal]

Can we have your doctor on?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I think I'm gonna keep the cola. I'm gonna keep it for that Monday. More fun, right? What do you think? I'll just sprint out of there.

[Sal]

We'll read the comments.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it'll be fine. You just interact with the crowd.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. Speaking of colonoscopies, NFC East, Philadelphia over 11 and a half. I thought it was going to be lower. There's reasons the NFC east plays the AFC west and the NFC north, the two best divisions we have. Philly has. I tried to do a point schedule, point total thing for schedules that I just made up, and they had the highest one. They play the first play schedule. They have night games. They have a European game. It's just a nightmare. And I think that's why it's 11 and a half, not 13 and a half. And I'll tell you what I'm going to do in a second. Where were you leaning on this one?

[Sal]

I mean, listen, I want to predict an Eagles demise more than Anybody. But I think it would be disingenuous. The only thing I have going for me is no team is repeated as NFC east champ for 21 years. The Eagles did it last in 2004 and Kellen Moore is out the offensive coordinator, which freaks people out typically. I know they do with the Lions, but Hertz actually had six offensive coordinators in six years. That's crazy. Yeah, that's really nuts. So you know they went from 31st to 5th and red zone under Fangio. They lose a bunch of defensive players, Sweat, Huff, Milton, Williams. But they freaking just draft ballers, more defensive brutalizers. They got Jihad Campbell from Alabama and a Kobe Dean injury might be worse than they thought. You know they got the safety Makuba, he's a hard hitter. So I think, you know, you went over that schedule. They were 8 and 2 in close games and they played the easiest run defense last year. Other than that the fucking tush push didn't get banned. And so if they can get to third and three, they move the chains. Third and three, fourth and one. There it goes. You're good. So I have the Eagles with 11 wins, which is under 11 and 6. Good enough to repeat as champs.

[Bill Simmons]

I did my talent rankings for them and they were the highest by like six points. They had 38. I mean they have just on offense hurts. Barkley, Brown, Devontae, Smith, Goddard, their offensive line is top four. They got seven points. Defense, Carter, Bond, Dejan Mitchell, they had a good draft. Sirianni's top 10 coaching staff.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

It's depressing. Sal, I feel bad for you that this team's in your division.

[Sal]

They're signed Barkley, Lane, Johnson, you know, Camp Jurgens, like everything they need to do.

[Bill Simmons]

Number one seed plus 370 conference plus 370. Super bowl seven to one playoffs minus 350. I guess. Here's my question. So the Chiefs became the 2010 Patriots. The Brady's the second decade Patriots, right. They just kind of assumed that Mantle Mahomes became Brady Reed, the whole offense and just doing their magic. Are the Eagles becoming Belichick's 2000s Patriots defense just like smart. They have like little gimmicky stuff that they do to. To. To get points. They just kind of out think teams. They had the, the Hertz, Carter picks. They stole A.J. brown, they stole that Bond guy that no, it wasn't even on anyone's radar. They stole Barkley. They nail every draft. They're lurking for every unhappy guy. Thank God you're not going to Trade Parsons to him. Cause even Jerry Jones wouldn't do that.

[Sal]

I haven't updated anything.

[Bill Simmons]

They built lines and out, which now everybody's stealing. Like they're just the smartest team. This is what the Patriots were in the 2000.

[Sal]

Howie Roseman's great. I mean, who was your Howie Roseman? I guess it was just Belichick.

[Bill Simmons]

It was Belichick, but he was literally recreating how you put together a roster for five years.

[Sal]

Yeah. Take four of our top ten best defensive players. Don't worry, we'll resign it. We'll make the money work. Like, it just. It happens year after year. I mean, they went 12 and 1. I mean, they killed teams at the end. Think about what they did. I guess the Rams, that was a weird game. So that, that could have gone a different way.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Sal]

But when they beat up on Washington and then the super bowl, like, if that continues, I hope they're the team to beat. And so everybody goes after him a little more. But this just could be how it is for the Eagles. I mean, we talked about how those top four quarterbacks are kind of set with, you know, Burrow, Allen, Mahomes and Lamar. Yeah. But as Jalen hurts, can he make the move this year into the top?

[Bill Simmons]

Can he go up a notch?

[Sal]

Yeah. Or is he there?

[Bill Simmons]

It's a really hard over under. And I changed my mind on it a hundred times. And at one point I was at 11 with it because I was going through the schedule. I'm like, jesus Christ. Other than the two Giants games, those Raiders, Chargers, two Dallas games, those are their five easiest games. Those aren't even easy games.

[Sal]

I know they really could go five and one in the division. But that NFC north, they're on the road against the three, three good teams. Right. Tampa Bay, I'm sorry, Minnesota, Green Bay, and they're home for Detroit. Could be tough.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, they also. They have the night games, like at Buffalo, they have a Friday night game. Week 13, like, they have one, two, two Thursday night games. They have a Saturday game. They have a couple Sunday, Monday games. And it's post Super Bowl. Everything went away for them last year. Barkley had almost 500 touches. When you include the playoffs, like, could he break down. Are they going to have the same offensive line health look, but when you start talking about that, when it's like reasons not to pick a team to be really good, their offensive line could get hurt. Oh, as opposed to the other 31 teams. That's not a reason.

[Sal]

So weak.

[Bill Simmons]

They're going to be really good. I don't see how they don't go 12 and five.

[Sal]

12 and five? Yeah. 11 and six. I just think you know when teams are gunning for you and they do have that weird schedule a little bit. Fucking four. Toughest strength to schedule.

[Bill Simmons]

So are they gonna lose six times? That would be 11 and six. Or are they gonna lose five times which would be 12 and five. I don't love this. I don't love this pick. But I went 12 and 5. I went over crazy that this became such a, such a like ongoing juggernaut. The Eagles.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Because I feel like this is actually sustainable for the decade. Right. Which is another weird thing about where we are right now. Where we have this chief's infrastructure. We have what they're building. The packers have a chance I think to have an infrastructure.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

The Broncos, maybe Buffalo has it already. Baltimore has it already. We have the like very competent playoffs.

[Sal]

What's your secret, Howie Roseman? Well, I draft the fattest strongest lineman in the sec. Yeah. On both sides of the ball. That's it.

[Bill Simmons]

Carter falls to them like that could have been. Indianapolis just could have taken him. They took Anthony Richardson, who doesn't play for them anymore.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

Washington is nine and a half. This is the all time regression candidate. There's a million things and if you're going to go over for them. Nine and a half. It's a Jaden Daniels pick. There's no other reason. House and Chang and those guys will be. No, no, we got better. We added this guy. That guy. You went sideways. No, this is all about Jaden Daniels and what has he got in a plus 220 for the division. Second place plus 175 which I think is pretty enticing. You could zag against them, which I think would have to be a Daniels injury. But under seven half wins is plus 270. They were 12 and five last year. How can everything go right two years in a row? They had a Hail Mary last year. They had four crazy wins. They had the God given schedule of all time.

[Sal]

That Eagles regular season win that they would, you know. Right. Jackson catch. Yeah, I, I have them way under. They're the oldest team in the NFL in 13 years. They signed and traded for or resigned 13 players who are 30 or older this year. And that was before Von Miller. So you know I. They took Detroit by surprise. Great win. But let's do this. Quarterbacks, they face 24. Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Caleb Williams, Daniel Jones, Cooper Rush. They lost that game. Will Levis, Jake Haer Spencer Rattler, Kenny picket, Trey Lance, DeShawn, Watson, and then Joe Burrow. I mean, they converted 87% of four downs, which is insane. This is. This is like.

[Bill Simmons]

And their defense was awful against good offenses. Yeah, it was like, awful.

[Sal]

They were like 29th against the run. So one thing is they're favored in 12 games this year. Yeah. But their road games are Green Bay, Chargers, kc, Miami, Minnesota, Philly. Those are tough. I'm going eight wins, I'm going under, and no playoffs.

[Bill Simmons]

And I'm bitter for sure. I went nine and eight, but you could talk me into eight.

[Sal]

Nine.

[Bill Simmons]

I went under either way. The worst quarterbacks that play this year, Giants twice, Geno Darnold, tua, Knicks. So it's a little different than last year. They went. Everyone's talked about this. 20 for 23 and 4th down last year. That's not replicable. Safety, stink, Pass rush might be bad. They lost Allen, like, you know, they just might not have a good defense. I don't trust Marshawn Lattimore, who they traded some stuff for last year. And. And the spotlight's different, man. You look at the schedule and it's like Thursday, Monday, Monday, Sunday, Madrid, Sunday, Saturday, Christmas. Like, they're in the spotlight week after week. And if anything goes wrong, that spotlight gets super hot. Sure. Here's the zag would be. Everybody is picking them to be a regression team. And the odds of Jaden Daniels actually being like, special.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

Where could he be? Mahomes, Lamar, Josh, Allen, where it's like, you just have to give him 11 wins.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

That would be the case for.

[Sal]

And the running back's good. McCroskey, the one they call Bill. Right. Crosby, Marin.

[Bill Simmons]

Are you sure he's good? No seventh round pick.

[Sal]

Of course we're not.

[Bill Simmons]

Everyone's like, oh, I like him.

[Sal]

It's like, Bill, you got to root for him. He calls himself Bill for no reason.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I like that. I should do that. I had for chippers, Daniels, McLaurin, that's it. On offense, on defense, Allen, Lubo, Luvo and Wagner and then Quinn as a coach. But it's not.

[Sal]

It's.

[Bill Simmons]

It's kind of a top heavy team with not a shitload of depth.

[Sal]

They're all. That's an old team. 30 is pretty old.

[Bill Simmons]

And they're also like, with the offensive line, like, they took Josh Conner and they. Late in the first round and yeah, he's going to have to be our left tackle.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

We just got to keep our fingers crossed.

[Sal]

Right, right, right.

[Bill Simmons]

You know, and that Our right tackle. And they traded for Tunsil, who Houston was really happy to get rid of. Yeah, but that would have been a red flag to me.

[Sal]

Yeah, they, they. The way they spent money was kind of weird. Was it wasn't like an up and coming wild card team from the year before. But yeah, they got some age behind.

[Bill Simmons]

It's like this weekend when you have custody of Brad all weekend and you're just offering him to me like he's Laramie Tunsil. You should see any interested in training for.

[Sal]

He has that mask too, that Laramie Tunsil mask. So that'll be fun.

[Bill Simmons]

So this is what this going back to like what we said at part one where I was like, I don't like this season as much. I don't feel as comfortable with the overrunners. Like the Washington under looks too easy.

[Sal]

Yeah, that's the one I'm most confident in. So. Yeah, you're probably right.

[Bill Simmons]

I had them.

[Sal]

It's okay. Some people making a case for them. Joe House, the fans, everyone.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I did this bet with all the Washington fans I know Pats versus Washington. They gave me two wins because the Pats have a two win lower over under the Washington.

[Sal]

That's such a. That's easy. They don't play each other. Right.

[Bill Simmons]

So we bet.

[Sal]

We.

[Bill Simmons]

We had the bet. But then Chang wanted to go game by game for the price. That was the bet for everybody else. So like if the Pats go, I don't know, 10 and 7 and watch go 7 and 10, I would have five units on Chang.

[Sal]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

He's very confident.

[Sal]

He can never lose enough money, that guy. He loves it.

[Bill Simmons]

He just wanted the more action. Speaking of action, Dallas Cowboys skip pass.

[Sal]

You get one pass, everyone gets a pass, right?

[Bill Simmons]

Seven and a half is your over. Under five to one for the division plus 186 for the playoffs. If you want to go under five and a half wins, which I think is pretty enticing. Three to one. What's better about their defense this year? Anything. Also your best player is in street close.

[Sal]

Yeah, I put the over under at August 25th and here we are the 27th. I don't know when you guys are listening, but these are crucial three days for him to sign. Not that they're going to beat the Eagles in week one, but yeah, that was awful. We saw them lose to the packers right in the playoffs and then their defense just got worse. Apparently like you know, the car beat them. The Saints put up 40 against them. They were getting crushed at home. This is a team that would never really lose at home.

[Bill Simmons]

You gave up 468 points. Yeah, it's like 30 a game, basically.

[Sal]

Yeah. So we have to. We have to out slug teams. Kind of like the Bengals, except we're probably not as talented. I do like the Pickens. Look, I'm. I'm on too many Cowboys text threads and Twitter accounts and newsletters to have a. A proper perspective for this team. I'm overcome with negativity. Like, Joe Milton throws an interception. Like they're going to go 2 and 15 because he kills the first team defense in practice.

[Bill Simmons]

So I. Oh, is that true? He's killing the first team.

[Sal]

There is, there is. And there's a chance as Brian Schottenheimer's a disaster. I mean, they didn't care, Jerry. I'm just going to watch the documentary on a loop for Netflix next week. And that's it.

[Bill Simmons]

They were somehow 24th in DVOA last year on defense. I don't know how. There were eight teams worse. They were 32nd and run defense, and they went from McCarthy to Schottenheimer. I don't know what that does. The running backs are. They just threw away the position again. Really strange.

[Sal]

You want a great stat on running backs. Yeah. Sharp again. Despite 140 running back runs through week nine, they didn't have a single rush over 15 yards. 140. You and I could touch the ball 140 times.

[Bill Simmons]

Not one time. A hole opened up. The defensive back fell down.

[Sal]

Nothing. Not nothing. And that doesn't get better with Javante Williams. They're going to have to get better with the Clemson or get lucky with the Clemson kid. I don't know. I mean.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, what happens if Parsons misses the first two games? Because we're taping this on a late Wednesday afternoon, Pacific time. And Chris Jones did this two years ago. He missed the first game. I think they lost and then they signed him.

[Sal]

Yeah. The second game's against the Giants. You would think. You would think, Jerry, after being O&1, which they will be, we'll have them locked up. But I. I say 7 and 10. I'm pleasantly surprised that they exceed 7 wins.

[Bill Simmons]

They can't run the ball and they can't stop the run. And they also have a brutal schedule.

[Sal]

Yeah, look at all they play.

[Bill Simmons]

The third place schedule, which is the Jets, Denver and Arizona. That kind of sucks that people like. Obviously we. We were big on Denver in the last podcast and people like Arizona.

[Sal]

Look at those last six or six of the last seven.

[Bill Simmons]

There's a stretch where they go at Raiders home, Eagles, Chiefs on Thanksgiving, at Lions, then finish it up with the Vikings on a Sunday night.

[Sal]

Yeah. Even Chargers. And at Washington. Yeah. I have them losing to the Giants, which hasn't happened in a while in that last game, which puts them at 7 and 10. That's just a brutal. Although you know the one I mean, I guess the only upside is that wide receiver core. Like, even though the Steelers seem to know when to move on from wide receivers, Pickens and Lamb is pretty damn good, right? He's going to. There's going to be some long balls in there. They're going to have 35 points and their defense is going to have to kill them.

[Bill Simmons]

I have them going 5 and 12.

[Sal]

And going, wow, look at you. Throw this in your face.

[Bill Simmons]

But I'll say this. Yeah, I think it's going to be a fun 5 and 12 team.

[Sal]

Oh, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Dak, Lamb, Pickens, like they're going to get fantasy points. I have no idea who's going to run the ball.

[Sal]

What a jerk. Fun 5 and 12.

[Bill Simmons]

You don't like the idea of a fun 5 and 12?

[Sal]

No, no. Give me a boring. Whatever. The Chargers do nine and eight every year.

[Bill Simmons]

You wouldn't consider, like, you wouldn't be considered at any point doing what I did last year and started rooting against them.

[Sal]

I can't do it. I don't have, you know, I know people who like kind of own teams. I don't like it. I don't like it.

[Bill Simmons]

Back to the I absolutely cannot believe this team made the playoffs list where we had 3 and 24 and 2 or 4 and 23 and then 2 and 22. So this always happens.

[Sal]

What do you mean? Oh, that year they beat Minnesota.

[Bill Simmons]

No, no, I'm just saying. Cause we're going to the next team.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

We had three teams. Minnesota, Washington, Denver, last year, all with three to one odds or better. Basically, this year we have Vegas plus 320. Tennessee plus 390. Jets, Giants plus 680. Saints plus 820 and Cleveland plus 920. I really wanted to do it. I wanted to put the Giants in the playoffs. The vibes are immaculate. I wanted to do it.

[Sal]

The schedule is dart.

[Bill Simmons]

It seems like they hit the jackpot with dart. Like for real.

[Sal]

You think so?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it seems like he's going to be playing by week four and he's.

[Sal]

Going to be good. Oh, all right.

[Bill Simmons]

Seems like he is just checking every box for this guy. Might have it. Carter is the best guy in the draft.

[Sal]

Yeah. He couldn't get through. It's true. Carter's. Carter's gonna favorite for defensive rookie of the year. He couldn't get through the easy pass. Jackson dart. That bothers me a little bit.

[Bill Simmons]

What do you mean?

[Sal]

I think he's racking up tickets just driving through the easy pass because he doesn't understand it. Doesn't that bother you?

[Bill Simmons]

Like if you had that.

[Sal]

That's what he said. He said I don't get. I don't know what it is. I just keep.

[Bill Simmons]

He couldn't solve the easy pass.

[Sal]

No, no. Look it up. It's crazy. It's the schedule though. I, I think they're going to be like the jets where they're competitive. I like to bet them over eight and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

I think they're going to be more than competitive.

[Sal]

Really.

[Bill Simmons]

There's a ca. So first of all they, they. There's a real case they might have the best D line in the league with those guys with Burn and Thibodeau. Burns and Thibodeau and add Carter to it.

[Sal]

Lawrence pass rush wise. They don't. They give up running. A lot of running. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

But I'm just saying like if they can get a lead and they're in the second half and those guys could just come after. Yeah, whoever. Like that's going to be a scary team. It seems like. So Thomas came back as their left tackle. That was big Neighbors going for 50 bucks and first round pick in fantasy.

[Sal]

Wilson throws that. That moon ball that connects every now and then. That could be. That could be.

[Bill Simmons]

I think we see him for three weeks. I was looking at it at Commanders at Cowboys, home, Chiefs, home Chargers at Saints. I think he, he's Chargers game. I think he's starting.

[Sal]

Where is that?

[Bill Simmons]

Week four.

[Sal]

Four.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. I don't think you start him in the. Against the Chiefs on Sunday night. You don't want any part of that.

[Sal]

So then they'd have to be one and two though. You're giving them two lot or at least two.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm. I think they split those first two.

[Sal]

Yeah. I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

But Wayne, the schedule. When you think the combo though doesn't get easier.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

The two hardest divisions then their fourth place schedule is the Pats, Vegas and San Francisco.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Those are their fun.

[Sal]

Right, right.

[Bill Simmons]

So I just couldn't get there. I went through it. I was trying to do every angle to get them to 10 and 7 and. Because I think 10 and 7 is going to be the NFC 7.

[Sal]

No, you don't have to. Don't do that don't hurt yourself. I have what, 6 and 11 and one of those wins is against my Cowboys in week 18.

[Bill Simmons]

I think 10 plus wins plus 750 is a great bet and I might pick that when we do our futures thing. I just think there's a History Sundays. I think seven losses in there at least history says. Like we would have said last year with Denver and Washington. We would have been like, no way. Get the fuck out. Like Washington went 12 and 5 last year.

[Sal]

Yeah, we.

[Bill Simmons]

We both went over for them and. But we were like over nine would be a miracle.

[Sal]

And they won 12 Daniels for rookie of the year. Yeah, I don't know. I don't. I. Believe me, I liked it. And then I looked at the schedule and I couldn't get there.

[Bill Simmons]

Can I offer you this bet?

[Sal]

1 and 8 and 1 score game fandom.

[Bill Simmons]

8 plus wins plus 300.

[Sal]

I mean that could happen. Yeah, that's. That's not bad.

[Bill Simmons]

Three to one odds on them going eight and nine. I like what I. I mean the fact that we gave them Abdul Carter with the Joe Milton thing is. Has to be up there with the Homa catch with Pat's Giants relationships. Well, now you're stuck with Joe Milton. He's terrible.

[Sal]

I know. But they also. They lost to the Colts. They would have had Cam Ward otherwise. And they ended up trading up for Jackson Dart. So they've done some dumb shit.

[Bill Simmons]

That's like a transformational draft. I think it's better that they ended up the way they ended up and they. Maybe they moved up. I had this written down for them. I think this is the underdog that ruins the most teasers and parlays this year. Yeah, I think there's three or four weeks where they're like plus eight plus nine, plus seven, stay away from the. And you put the money favorite in there with three other teams and the Giants just fuck it up.

[Sal]

Well, that's what I said. FanDuel Let me bet over eight and a half covers. That's how I want to do it.

[Bill Simmons]

That's a really good idea for a bet. What I'll talk to. I'll talk. We know people at fandom.

[Sal]

I mean those should all be eight and a half, right? You wouldn't change any. All right.

[Bill Simmons]

Defense, they have. They have a couple. Couple studs and then neighbors is really the only offensive threat unless Cam Scatterbo can turn into something. But I like the fact it seemed like they weren't going to be able to block, but now that Thomas is back, maybe they will. Be one other thing I like about this team. Day ball and I'm getting fired if this doesn't work out. Fuck it. Like he's just going to do.

[Sal]

He's got a different situation.

[Bill Simmons]

If he thinks Dark can play and help them, he's putting them in. Okay, we're going to take a break and then we'll do the NFC north football is almost back and thank God we get to bet. We get to watch. We get to do all kinds of things with our friends at FanDuel. FanDuel is getting you ready to kick off the kickoff with an offer you won't want to miss. New customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That's right, pick a bet, bet five bucks. If it wins, you unlock 300 bucks in bonus bets to use all across the app. Parlays bet player props, ride the live lines. Whatever your style, FanDuel has you covered the NFL season. It's so close. It's almost here. The only question is, are you ready to play? Visit fando.com BS to download the Fando app today and get started. You must be 21 plus in President select states or 18 plus in President DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. First online real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawal bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. Seat terms at sportsbook.fander.com gaming problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatinconnecticate paid endorsement this episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. Summer is here and you can now get almost anything you need for your sunny days delivered with Uber Eats. What do I mean by almost? Well, you can't get a well groomed lawn delivered, but you can get chicken Parmesan delivered. I love chicken parm. A day in the sun? No. A bottle of rum? Yes, Uber Eats can definitely get you that. Get almost almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. Order now for alcohol. You must be legal drinking age. Please enjoy responsibly. Product availability varies by region. See app for details. All right, before we do the NFC north, the group of I kind of can't believe they missed the playoffs, which is all the odds. The missing the playoff odds from basically even to plus 160. Washington, Denver, Cincinnati Rams, Houston, Tampa. You've read this like Detroit, San Francisco. I'm just resetting. We had four teams missed last year. The Lions are over 10 and a half. They went 152 last year and there's a chance they will miss the playoffs again. That number is plus 138. Any interest?

[Sal]

Hate that. I don't think the OC is worth four losses. Four more losses, they're going to go from 15 to. Actually it'd be five to be under. They'd have to go from 15 to 10. I think this is. Offense is good enough. I mean, there's a lot of ways to go with this team. I think the positives far outweigh the negatives. They were top three in like 10 offensive metrics. So if you want to give that to Johnson, that's fine. I don't think St. Brown, Gibbs, Goff, laporte are going to forget how to play football because Johnson's gone. They were eight no. On the road 16 and one is 10 point teasers. Their strength of schedule was the third toughest. The skill positions players were very healthy. They had like 20 IR guys and most of them were defensive players, including Aiden Hutchinson was on his way to a banner year. So Ragnow, you know, he's gone. So that's the offensive line that this could be. You know, this is the problem with everyone. Zeitler went to the Titans, but as long as those skill position players are healthy, I think Dan Campbell's too good to put it like 9 wins or 10 wins.

[Bill Simmons]

Is this the best division for you?

[Sal]

I think I gave the AFC west more wins than this one.

[Bill Simmons]

I think it's the two of them together. So here's the case.

[Sal]

Yeah, 37 wins for this.

[Bill Simmons]

I sniffed this out last year. Yeah, the year from hell. Team San Francisco, because there were already signs before we even started. Here's the case for Detroit, coming off a devastating playoff loss, right. Lost both coordinators and seven coaches overall, including Ben Johnson, who I think everybody thought was the best offensive coordinator in the league. The new offensive coordinator, John Morton, is getting some WTFs.

[Sal]

Is he just. He's just the. Oh, he's the Denver pass coordinator. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

It's like what's going on with this guy? Goff went on that quarterback show. Just flagging it.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

Brutal schedule, you mentioned. It's a schedule that includes four more outdoor games than they had last year.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

That was one of the big things with them last year that we loved was they were just in a dome all the time and they lost their center and they lost their guard like this. This great offensive line that was like the lifeblood of their team. It's just not as good anymore. Right. So that would be the case.

[Sal]

Fifteen wins though. There's so many to come down from.

[Bill Simmons]

I have them in the playoffs, but I have them at 10 and 7.

[Sal]

Okay. I have 12 wins and a one seed.

[Bill Simmons]

I went under. I think it's. I think it's just way more likely things go wrong for this team than.

[Sal]

Right. All right.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean from right. From like 15 and 2 obviously is never happening again. I. There's. I just really like this division best.

[Sal]

Rest edge as anyone else. That out of anyone. 13 more rest days and anyone. Yeah. I mean listen, those eight road games are against teams that finished above.500. So that's doesn't get more brutal. But I feel like they win these games. A lot of these teams have been playing a first place schedule for a while. Yeah, used to it.

[Bill Simmons]

I just, I talked about this on a pod previously when the Pats had that year when they lost Romeo Cornell and Charlie Weiss after the third Super bowl and heading into 05 and people and I remember thinking like everyone was like this could be a big deal. And it's like come on, how's this going to be a big deal? It is a big deal when you have the wrong coordinator. You have different, different language and I just feel like everything was right for them. But the thing that really worries me is the offensive line because yeah, you can have Jared Goff if you're going to be able to block for him. And now like if you can push up the middle on him and get to him.

[Sal]

Zeitler went to the Titans too. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

So I just feel 10. It's 10 and 7. 11 and 8 range. I don't think they crater. I don't think it's like a Niners thing but had to mention the year from health thing because I think it's.

[Sal]

There's always a team. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I had them with 26 in my rankings. 26 points. I even gave Goff four point.

[Sal]

You did? Yeah. That's nice.

[Bill Simmons]

The next team is the team I like in this division. The Green Bay Packers. And I don't think I'm alone.

[Sal]

I'm with you.

[Bill Simmons]

Over nine and a half wins. There's been some juice that really changed with this division. Plus 220. The Lions for the division were plus 175. The Lions were 10 to 1 to win the Super bowl and minus 172 for the playoffs. The packers are now 161 to win the Super bowl, minus 138 to the playoffs. So their odds over a five month span started to creep toward Detroit. 12 plus wins for them is plus 310, which I have in bold for our future draft. Last year they were 11 and 6. So let's talk about that. I don't feel like a ton of shit went right for them last year. Right. Love had. Love was hurt all year at one point. I think he had three different injuries. Watson gets hurt near the end of the season. It just felt like J.R. alexander was never like you never knew it was getting with him. I just felt like for them to go 11 and 6 and they got to the point that we were taking them really seriously as a spoiler in January.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And they hung in that going 11 and 6 in division where they had Minnesota and Detroit.

[Sal]

Well, they went 1 and 5 in the division and so ended up with 11 wins.

[Bill Simmons]

Unbelievable.

[Sal]

Bizarre. I think this is, I mean he's a third year quarterback and if you look at he was the most cursed quarterback in terms of like you said, injuries. But also those guys sucked like Jaden Reed and Devonte and Wicks. They dropped their receiver error was like tops in the leagues there they in the league and I think they have, you know this golden could be really good. I think Reed, sorry. Love in his third year is solid. He's you know, 80% on a quarterback sneak. So he's got that Eagles thing going for him. Even though they were the biggest complainers about the tush push. So yeah, I like him a lot. I mean they play the Lions and then no division games for two months so they can make some. A. A little bit.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. I liked, I looked at the schedule and I kind of liked how it broke down where they got Lions commanders to start but home and then going right to at Cleveland, at Dallas. I'm not worried about that bye week. I might be 40 at the bye week. You mentioned Love. One of the questions for me is can he be a true franchise qb? And people thought it was going to happen last year and it turns out they were like a year away from being the team this year. But the lafleur thing is nuts. Like the Bundo was talking about this. They have a top 10 offense every year.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

LaFleur is 67 and 33 as a head coach.

[Sal]

Right, right.

[Bill Simmons]

You know and it doesn't seem to matter what kind of injury luck they have. They move their offensive line around and that Jenkins, who everybody loves is going to be the center this year. But it seems like they're going to.

[Sal]

Be able to block Jacobs over 1300 yards. Yeah, they're. They're Solid. They're going to put up points.

[Bill Simmons]

Well it seems like this golden they might have hit with this guy. It seems like a Buka and golden.

[Sal]

Are both going to be really good. Super quick dude.

[Bill Simmons]

So one question and they have an excellent coaching staff. One question I had with them. Love 25 to win MVP. I got it in our shield did a whole oh you have it in our thing. Shield did a whole MVP tiers and was talking about basically the MVP has to come from a 12, 13, 14 win team.

[Sal]

No doubt about it.

[Bill Simmons]

So if you think Green bay could be the one seed you have to bet love 25 to 1.

[Sal]

I have them at 11 wins but of course I can get 12. And of course 25 to 1 is worth it. Yeah. For that. And also like the voters might just be sick of. I don't want to decide who's better Allen or Mahomes or Jackson. It might go to an NFC guy this year. Yeah. All right.

[Bill Simmons]

We're both in on them. I have them at 21 points in my rankings but they're they there might be some guys that are coming on too, especially from that draft. Minnesota over is nine and a half as well. Plus 290 for the division. Even odds for the playoffs. 11 and one would be the one seed. Did I mention the packers odds for the one seed nine to one.

[Sal]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

They if you want to go. I think J.J. mcCarthy is going to be a bust. I'd like to offer you under six and a half wins for plus 360. They were 14 and three last year. So.

[Sal]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

Who has a wider ceiling floor disparity than JJ McCarthy? This is like a literally a complete unknown. No idea what to expect.

[Sal]

So you have two schools of thought. Right. Either J.J. mcCarthy's coming off an injury. He's unproven in big games. He didn't actually play great. He was 10 for 18, 1:40 against Ohio State.

[Bill Simmons]

He tried to trade for Anthony Richardson.

[Sal]

That whole draft, that whole thing and the Washington game, you know he wasn't. That's when he was 10 for 18. He was 12 for 24 against Ohio State. Or you're of the school that. Well, Sam Darnold won 14 games so it doesn't really matter who's throwing. I'm. I'm with the former here. I need to see something out of this guy first. I don't think it's. I don't think it's good that how excited they are that Adam Thielen signed in late August. Like they're frigging throwing Parties at Adam Thielen is on there.

[Bill Simmons]

No Addison for first three games. Thielen they get. And it's like thank God Thielen's here.

[Sal]

Yeah, of course Jefferson's great but um. And that offensive line is solid. But they were nine and one in one score games and I don't think you could demand the same from a rookie coming out after an injury.

[Bill Simmons]

Some of the regression stuff with them, it's. It's almost as classic of a profile as who's the team we did in the afc? Oh, oh, the Washington. Yeah, that was the other one. They had a crazy turnover luck. They had crazy one score game luck. Schedule was easier this year. Like the way worse at cornerback.

[Sal]

And.

[Bill Simmons]

I think you'll be able to throw on them and I mentioned that because they're going at Bears home, Falcons home, Bengals for their first three games. Teams are going to be dialing up and throwing on them. Now the Patriots did a whole week of practices that an exhibition game and their defense kicked our ass.

[Sal]

And I Forest did a good job with that defense. But 33 takeaways, which is what they had. I don't want to say it's lucky, but it's hard to replicate. Right. Like everything kind of went right for them for those last two games.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, they hit last year. They hit with that Van Ginkel signing.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

But it's weird when I did my rankings and I really like when I do those, I really, I look, I read all the list and their defense is great, but it's really because of Flores. It's not like they're like loaded with studs.

[Sal]

They move parts around.

[Bill Simmons]

But yeah, that offensive line good, offensive line great.

[Sal]

Kelly and Freeze and Donovan Jackson they drafted from Ohio State. You know, they got Hargrave on the defense. I don't know, I just think that's a lot. That nine and one and one score games thing scares me. I have them with seven wins. What do you have?

[Bill Simmons]

You have eight, seven wins, seven and ten. So you have them dropping seven wins.

[Sal]

Dropping seven wins. Yeah. Well that's what you're doing in Detroit basically.

[Bill Simmons]

Now I had them dropping five sevens like holy.

[Sal]

Whole different thing.

[Bill Simmons]

So you're out on J.J. mcCarthy. That's an. I'm out on J.J. mcCarthy.

[Sal]

Yeah. I have to be if I'm going to give some of these other teams wins like Green Bay.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm under. I have them at 9 and 8. By the time we get to next week it could be 8, 9 because. Just because I think their defense is.

[Sal]

After the buy Philly at Chargers at Detroit, Baltimore. It could be that.

[Bill Simmons]

So one of the things, one of the reasons I did that was because I was looking at. When I did the. Looking at the biggest. The most wins by division each year. So last year, the NFC north had the most wins. They had 45 wins.

[Sal]

Jesus.

[Bill Simmons]

Year before, AFC North, 43. Year before that. NFC is 43. Right. So that's just the last three. So you figure it's going to be somewhere in that range, 43 to 45. And I think the NFC North's the best division, so I wanted to get in that, like, 43 range. So that's why I gave them nine and eight.

[Sal]

Who they play. NFC east and AFC North.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Sal]

Yeah. It's tough. Not the easiest.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, maybe not tough, but yeah. So with Minnesota, they're in London a.

[Sal]

Couple of weeks, right?

[Bill Simmons]

This. I mean, that the. Their schedule is really tough.

[Sal]

Is that hard to win both? Isn't that hard to beat Pittsburgh and Cleveland? One of those games is going to be shitty weather.

[Bill Simmons]

Sound like. Has anyone done Dublin, London back to back? Like, have we ever done two different countries back to back in Europe?

[Sal]

I don't. I don't think so. I don't think the Jags did that.

[Bill Simmons]

You know we're sending the fantasy football guys to Dublin.

[Sal]

I heard you're never going to see them again.

[Bill Simmons]

I think high fits might not come back. It's 50, 50. The other two I'm not worried about.

[Sal]

What do we call the coach that has the middle seat?

[Bill Simmons]

Middle seat, same thing. This end of the Run for the. For God. So they have a bye week and then they go Eagles at Chargers at Lions, Ravens, Bears at Packers at Seahawks, Commanders at Cowboys at Giants. Lions, Packers. There's like talk about no room for anything. That's a lot to ask for, Earl. J.J. yeah, nine and eight. I might even go lower than that. Under for them. Man, it feels like we are agreeing too much this podcast.

[Sal]

No, because what we're. What else do we have? Feels like we're Browns and dumb shit.

[Bill Simmons]

The Bears. Now I feel like you're going to be with me in the Bears.

[Sal]

Well, last year our Decision was under 8 and a half or no playoffs. Right. I mean, they were asking a lot of the Rookie to go 9 and 8.

[Bill Simmons]

Its first year I was under on the Bears. The bears ended up 5 and 12. Last year they had one of the worst coaching situations in the league. The Hail Mary by Daniels literally ruined their season. They were never the same. They're over a seven and a half, five to one for the division, which I think is enticing. Plus 184 for the playoffs, plus 210, 10 wins. So, Ken, Ben Johnson, can this be Shanahan and McVeigh? Is that what we're signing up for with this? My bet is yes.

[Sal]

Really?

[Bill Simmons]

And that's part of like the Lions thing. I don't think you can say the Lions are fine, but then not also dive in on the Bears. I mean, you.

[Sal]

Or. Well, you can go one. One can win 11 games.

[Bill Simmons]

You can't say take two. You can't say the lines are going to be fine. But then.

[Sal]

But then I think I did say, yeah, I thought the Bears are going to be bad. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I think it's one of the other.

[Sal]

That's what I'm saying. So here's what I'm saying. We've been doing this for two and a half hours.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Luke, Rocky. I'm in on Ben Johnson.

[Sal]

Yeah. Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

And I didn't want to be. And it felt a little Justin Herbert and it felt like all these other NFL nerds were trying to bully us. And about brilliant Ben Johnson is. But I've loved his training camp. I love the tough love stuff with Caleb. I like that. Tyson Bajing. He just keeps like kind of. They gave him an extension. They keep giving him how great he is. And I don't know. I just think he's going to be. He's got a lot of weapons, got receivers all over the place. They got that. Everybody likes that Loveland, they should be able to block. Okay.

[Sal]

They helped him out. They got tuning. And Jonah Jackson, right. Drew Dahlman, they loaded up.

[Bill Simmons]

This is a classic rookie quarterback.

[Sal]

Like I said. Two more wide receivers with the first three picks. Caleb Williams might need a little more than Ben Johnson to excel in this division.

[Bill Simmons]

So that was my next question. Does Caleb Williams have it?

[Sal]

Yeah. If.

[Bill Simmons]

If he doesn't have it, we're going to know. Because I was trying to think, is anyone any year two quarterback loaded up like this? Been in a better situation since Mahomes.

[Sal]

I. Some will say McCarthy if you want to count him as a. A year two.

[Bill Simmons]

But no, this guy's got like.

[Sal]

No, this is a better situation.

[Bill Simmons]

The next genius offensive head coach.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Weapons everywhere. Number one pick receivers and tight ends and DJ Moore. And you know, the running backs aren't that good. They spent money in the line like they've done everything right and he just has to be good.

[Sal]

I never like the guys who are sacked 68 times. Third most ever. I Never liked those guys, I feel like. And maybe you're right about Ben Johnson. Maybe it's in two years, but I just don't think Caleb boy, he takes him like we might see Tyson Bajan and not because of an injury. I'm going to go that far.

[Bill Simmons]

That'd be amazing.

[Sal]

And I have seven wins. I think they go under. I think the luck.

[Bill Simmons]

We don't agree.

[Sal]

We don't agree. No. They forced 24 turnovers last year. 13 fumble recoveries. That's lucky. 13 fumble.

[Bill Simmons]

Dennis Allen. Yeah, D.C. this year, Dennis Allen, upgrade. But they didn't really watch for him.

[Sal]

They didn't really sign. The pass rush wasn't good. They go from the third easiest to the seventh hardest schedule. Now. I'm hitting that on there.

[Bill Simmons]

Left tackle might be shaky. Running backs might be shaky. I'm in. All right, I'm in. I think they go 10 and 7. I'm way over. I have them in the playoffs.

[Sal]

Okay, let's bet $25,000.

[Bill Simmons]

I have three NFC north playoff teams which our colleague, Kay Adams. Yeah, that was one of her special bets. No, she had it right. Kay Adams. Why hasn't she invited you on?

[Sal]

Maybe she has, and I've turned her.

[Bill Simmons]

Down a few times. Go on the K. Adams.

[Sal]

You and Kay Adams agree. Oh, this is something now.

[Bill Simmons]

Kay Adams and I agree.

[Sal]

I have 12 for Lions, 11 for the packers and seven for the Vikings. And seven for the Bears. Some of these schedules are tough, man.

[Bill Simmons]

I think you com. I think you whiffed on that. I have 10, 9, 19, 12 for green base. That's 31. I have 41 for this division.

[Sal]

Oh, shit. Yeah. 23 there. I have 37. Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm just glad we were able to do math.

[Sal]

It might be wrong.

[Bill Simmons]

We're going to take a break and then talk about a division that's not as good. The NFC south. That's next. And now it's time for Great Call, a segment sponsored by Verizon before the first whistle blows. The smartest plays already on the board. These great calls are the backbone of a successful season. When it comes to winning strategy, you can't beat the value you get at Verizon. They make sure you're always getting the most out of your money. Speaking of great calls, this off season had a couple standouts. Things I'm looking at as we head into the NFL season. The Bears hiring Ben Johnson, trying to team him up with a bunch of weapons. I think they're going to be a playoff team. The Raiders taking Ashton Genty to put him with Brock Bowers. The Patriots finally getting a left tackle to protect Drake May and I think best of all the Giants getting Abdul Carter who I think is going to be the defensive player of the year and fortifying their front four now they had the best defensive line pass rushing wise in the league so there were some really good calls over the spring. Sometimes that's not always the case. If you're looking to make a great call this season, make it with Verizon. Get a brand new phone with select phone. Trade in in MyPlan and lock down a low price for three years on any plan with my plan. This is for everyone whether you're a new or existing customer. Swing by Verizon today and get the most for your money. 3 year price guarantee applies to then current base monthly rate only. Additional terms and conditions apply for all offers. Least wins by division Last few years AFC South 25 last year year before NFC South 27 year before that AFC South 23 then we had a 28, a 23 and a 24. This would be my candidate to have the least wins unless you wanted to go AFC South. Yeah it's one of the Souths is going to have the least wins and a lot of it depends on this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. How many wins you think they're going to get or if you think they're.

[Sal]

Even going to be good.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it's interesting. So they're over is nine and a half action on the under minus 105 for the division, minus 160 for the playoffs. There's really not a lot of value anywhere around here. Worfs looks like their left tackle who's excellent. Looks like he's coming back like week maybe even week two range.

[Sal]

Yeah, that didn't look good like three months ago.

[Bill Simmons]

So that that changed a little bit and then Godwin will be back after a month but they're fine because they got Igbuka in the draft who's a stud.

[Sal]

Love that guy.

[Bill Simmons]

So here, here's my take on this. Tell me if you agree. This feels like our slow start fast finish team this year. Yeah they have no worse for the first couple weeks, five of their first eight on the road plus Philly at home. But then it gets really easy down the stretch and it feels like I'm just marking this down. Remind me, remind me in four weeks that we talked about it, we wait a month and bet on Tampa to win the let's let Atlanta take a little lead and then jump on it.

[Sal]

Yeah, don't freak out if they lose at Atlanta week one. Yeah, that's fine.

[Bill Simmons]

It's fine. They're one and three after four games. Oh my God. What's like.

[Sal]

Yeah, that's what we love this team. Am I happy that they cut Shiloh Sanders? No, of course not. They're behind the eight ball there. No, but listen, this is second year in a row Bulls has a new oc. He lost Canales and then Liam. So last year, number two score rate, number three points per drive, 16 and 1 and 10 point teasers. You love that. The secondary, you loved it. I love it. I do. But they have Vita Vea and Reddick. They got Reddick from the Jets. That could be forced like inside against the run. I just love that offense, right? Bucky Irving, 1100 plus yards, 41 touchdown passes for Baker. It's a fucking machine. And then like you said, add Egbuka who could be a generational talent. And what'd he go like 19th like going to be teams like kick.

[Bill Simmons]

It feels like he's going to be Brian Thomas Jr. For this year.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

Plus they still have Evans. Plus Bucky Irving was fucking awesome last year.

[Sal]

Lots of points. They had 152 fourth quarter points. That was the best in the league last year. Like they really, they don't get nervous.

[Bill Simmons]

This was the best stat I saw. So the past 25 years they have the six best third down conversion rate. Last year the other teams that were ahead of them were the 22 Bills, the 2011 Saints, the 06 Colts, the 04 Vikings and the 01 Rams.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

Like they weren't just great on third down, they were like out of their minds. So people would say, well, Liam Cohen's not there anymore. And yeah, I'm a little worried about that. But they have a lot of weapons and they can block. So New OC is named Josh Grizzard.

[Sal]

Yep. He was their quarterback coach. Right.

[Bill Simmons]

You know what's interesting? They're still in the running to be the best NFC team of the 2000s.

[Sal]

Yeah, it's true.

[Bill Simmons]

51 and 33, 6 and 4 in the playoffs. Four straight division titles and they won a Super Bowl. So it's them or the Eagles right now.

[Sal]

Interesting.

[Bill Simmons]

Kind of battling back and forth for that. But the.

[Sal]

Well, I got news for you. Should I say this now? Yeah. I know you don't like Santa Clara. Maybe you're not a big fan. I don't know if you want that over the airwaves, but the Buccaneers are going there in February.

[Bill Simmons]

This is. Oh. So I. I Did a Buffalo. You're going Tampa, let's go.

[Sal]

They're meeting each other 12 and 5.

[Bill Simmons]

Repeat as you have Buffalo versus Tampa.

[Sal]

That's what I have.

[Bill Simmons]

I have Buffalo versus Green Bay.

[Sal]

That could be good too. We'll bet them both 12 and 5. Classic garbage division.

[Bill Simmons]

I like it. I went over obviously, and I know you did too. I don't know if it's 10 and 7 or 11 and 6. Somewhere in there maybe it's.

[Sal]

You went over that ending. I mean that could be some run.

[Bill Simmons]

Right? But you know, at Falcons, at Texans, first two weeks they might start out oh and two and then Eagles at Seahawks, they could, they could literally be two and five after seven weeks and still win the division.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

I had them with 26 points in my roster rankings. So right in the cusp of Chiefs and some of those other teams. Top four offensive line in the league, four chippers on defense, including David and Winfield who were like high chippers. Mayfield's just good. I mean, let's all give up. He's somewhere between like the 8th and 13th best quarterback in the league.

[Sal]

I think he tied for the league lead in interceptions. He had 16. But when you're 41 touchdown passes, you're all right.

[Bill Simmons]

Atlanta, yep. Seven and a half is the over under for them plus 220 for the division. So there's some value there because if you don't think Tampa is going to have something bad happen plus 142 for the playoffs. They were 8, 9 last year. My two questions, what if Penix isn't good and what if Penix isn't good? Same question.

[Sal]

Wait a minute, let me answer the.

[Bill Simmons]

First, second one first. You can answer either. What if he's not good?

[Sal]

Then they'll be in a little bit of trouble. Right. I mean he's not as accurate as Cousins, but there are some things to like about him. For sure.

[Bill Simmons]

Because if they're going to be a playoff team.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

He's going to have to be like good because they're going to have to. I don't think their defense is going.

[Sal]

To be very good.

[Bill Simmons]

And they spent two first round picks, including one they traded next year.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

To beef up their pass rush. They signed, you know, they spent a lot of money trying to have a pass rush.

[Sal]

I wish their coaching was a little better. Right. Raheem Morris and the year before Arthur Smith. They lost a lot of games down the stretch. They lost six of the last eight games and 24 and four of the last five and 23. So that's what bugs me about this team. The other thing that bugs me is I was going to do a thing on ringer gambling channel. I was going to send a to camera video of how to explain to your wife her fantasies Team sucks. She went out with her friends and drafted Kyle Pitts.

[Bill Simmons]

Your wife did early. That's like divorce level.

[Sal]

I know. I like I didn't want to talk to her and I was like, hey, I crossed off a lot of names. He was definitely one. She's like, oh, maybe I wasn't paying attention. Like not paying attention. This Kyle Pitts, this is his year thing is like he didn't get drafted in our ring. He didn't.

[Bill Simmons]

No.

[Sal]

No. 200 whatever picks. Yeah. I mean this is Lucy pulling the ball from Charlie Brown.

[Bill Simmons]

They signed Leonard Floyd and they took Jalen Walker 15th and James Pierce Jr. 26. And Pierce Jr. Was supposed to be like heading into last college season like a top five pick.

[Sal]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

But then you read the I went on the Falcons Reddit I went on the I googled their pass rush and it like people I guess they didn't have that great of a preseason.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

They weren't like, oh my God, we're loaded. These guys are crazy. Like it wasn't like that at all.

[Sal]

They're doing the Howie Roseman SEC big body guys thing. Superstars so bad at cornerback.

[Bill Simmons]

Run defense is going to be terrible. Grady Jarrett's finally gone. But then the big thing that like cemented the under for me because I'm going under seven and a half. They lose their right tackle Caleb McGarry on Friday and they had this offensive line that was good. It was definitely like wasn't a top four offensive line, but it was probably top 10.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

But he's the right tackle. It's the Pennx blindside spot. And I was like, I'm out, I'm out, I'm under. That's it.

[Sal]

Right? That's it.

[Bill Simmons]

I was on the fence and now I'm out.

[Sal]

I saw it. First of all, we learned how to it's B Sean, not bn. We learned this summer. So I don't know if that changes.

[Bill Simmons]

Your did he overthink?

[Sal]

Yeah, he did. He did interviews and said that be Sean. I'm surprised here, but I think that division is so bad that they could go 5 and 1. So I think they're going to get 10 overall. 10 and 7. I'm going over. Look at you.

[Bill Simmons]

What? Yeah, it's fine that south don't beat you again.

[Sal]

Home against Washington, they win that home Against Tampa, we like that. Home against Miami, home against Indianapolis, Carolina at the jets, home against Seattle they could win these games 10, some under.

[Bill Simmons]

One thing I wanted to mention this is an all in team where they're not even good. Yeah like they spent all that money on Cousins they traded next year's first round pick and it's like not smart, cool. So we had no cap space and we don't have a first round pick next year so that that might help.

[Sal]

Your over this is the division to do it in.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, they're not going to tank. They play the NFC south plays the AFC east and the NFC west which I forgot to mention they had the second place schedule so they play Indy, Washington and Minnesota.

[Sal]

I don't like any of those teams.

[Bill Simmons]

Look if Penix is awesome, sure yeah but I don't know I was looking at the most interceptions for him for our futures draft because he had 11 in his last year in college which led college.

[Sal]

Right, right, right. Well that's good.

[Bill Simmons]

Carolina six and a half is the number there's been some action on the over minus 130 they are plus 240 to finish second plus 410 for the division plus 250 for the playoffs and there's been some but this is another one of those. I'm trying to talk myself into them being a sleeper team. They're another one. They're going to have the worst defense in the league.

[Sal]

That's it, that's what I have written down. You could blame Cam Young or you can blame Young and Price, Bryce Young and Dalton but most points in NFL history they allowed 31.4 rushing yards.

[Bill Simmons]

There was some crazy stats didn't they give up like 3,000 rushing yards or.

[Sal]

Something crazy 404 yards per game? Yeah, yeah that's what it was. So they get Marig from the Raiders and JC Horn and free agency but their second round pick are from the A and M the edge already has a collapsed long so I don't know and he's.

[Bill Simmons]

They got Derek Brown back so people are like well they got him back.

[Sal]

We want him to be good Bryce but you know he's like dead in most categories like before that week three benching he was like pretty much last and then he had some, you know he won four of his last 10 and three of them were in overtime so what do you make of this team? They don't have to. I think Canales has a ways to go here.

[Bill Simmons]

I think the over is too high. I have no idea if Canales Is a good coach. Terrible secondary, easier schedule. Look, they traded Thielen, which I find hard to believe. Like, he couldn't have helped them. That tells me that they're punting on this season.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

You trade that guy right before the season starts and you get like a fifth round pick.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

So I don't know. That was suspicious to me.

[Sal]

But they're already tanking. Ted McMillan. Could be fun, but we'll see.

[Bill Simmons]

There's some positive schedule stuff with them. Yeah, but I couldn't get there. We'll see. The offensive line is that they. You know, there's going to be a couple games where they run the ball and Bryce does a couple things. The Panthers, they're up at halftime.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Upset making here in Philly. Like, there'll be a couple of those.

[Sal]

Yeah. Like I said, they were fun against the Chiefs last year. They had some games, but.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, they're not going to be worse than this team. I'm going under for the Panthers.

[Sal]

Six wins for me.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. So that's under.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

New Orleans, four and a half, fourth place, minus 138. Plus 880 to make the playoffs, which is the worst number than the Browns. You can go under three and a half wins for plus 230. You can go under two and a half wins for plus 480. They were five and 12 last year. They changed their coach, they tried to change their quarterback, which is one of the reasons I'm going under. They spent a second round pick on Tyler Schuck.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

And he doesn't even win the job, even though he's like 25.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

So congrats on that, guys. I guess their offensive line's a little better with Banks, and they're better because they don't have Dennis Allen. Other than that, I don't see.

[Sal]

I.

[Bill Simmons]

This is in the running for worst team for me.

[Sal]

Has there ever been a less scary trio than Rattler, Shuck and Haner? Like, this is like a.

[Bill Simmons]

It's like a law firm.

[Sal]

A toddler coming at you with a bag of cotton balls. Like, what? Why are we supposed to be afraid of this? And the center is out now. I mean, this is a mess for Kellen Moore and Brandon Staley on the defensive end. You know, I don't know why we even talk about Car leaving, but he was actually not awful. They scored 90 points in the first two weeks. But you're right. Like, this is.

[Bill Simmons]

I think they led the BS podcast.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

That Sunday night after second week where we were like, is this the 2000 Rams.

[Sal]

Yeah. And shock is bad against pressure and blitz. Like he was in college. I know he has Kubiak. Everyone's excited for that, but their schedule is pretty easy. Only played three playoff teams from last year, Bucks, Rams and Bills. I think they're 4 and 13. I think they're one of, if not.

[Bill Simmons]

The worst team in my point system. Yeah, they ended up with a 1 minus 2 a quarterback. Camara got a point, Young got a point, and Davis got a point. And they had nothing else.

[Sal]

Awesome.

[Bill Simmons]

One point total.

[Sal]

Good job, Saints. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

So that's really bad.

[Sal]

They have Chase Young. I guess that'll help a little bit.

[Bill Simmons]

Is this a worst record in the league bet for you?

[Sal]

Yeah, I think so. I mean, I, I Would you go.

[Bill Simmons]

Them or the Browns?

[Sal]

I didn't get. I might do both.

[Bill Simmons]

Do we have those odds yet?

[Sal]

The problem with the south is. Oh, I don't think I saw.

[Bill Simmons]

I didn't see those odds.

[Sal]

Can I tell you? Hilarious.

[Bill Simmons]

Sando's been, like, way more positive. Like, they don't have first coach fired. I don't see a worse record for them.

[Sal]

Right. What are they doing? Stop being such a nice guy. This is a great stat. So every team on FanDuel has. Will they score a touchdown every game of the year? Yeah. And so, like, the good teams are all, like, even. Like, like the Ravens are like minus 140 and actually the Lions are minus 240. The Saints are plus 550. Plus 550 to score every game. Every other team is even or minus or something. They're in trouble.

[Bill Simmons]

Are they going to be favored in a single game?

[Sal]

I thought there might be.

[Bill Simmons]

Possibly not the first two.

[Sal]

Not home against the Giants. Probably not. I don't think.

[Bill Simmons]

Bucks, no. Falcons, no.

[Sal]

Home against Carolina Panthers.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe jets. Maybe week 15, 16. Maybe.

[Sal]

Maybe.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, they'll have the one game where Kamara has like 230 yards and goes nuts.

[Sal]

Well, that's the problem with this division. Like, you could. You could saddle a team with two wins for the season, but they could go 2 and 4 in the division because it's so bad. Right.

[Bill Simmons]

It would be funny if Trump, instead of declaring war on the weird shady declares war on was just like, got got to burn us out about the NFC South. It's like, I've had it.

[Sal]

That's it.

[Bill Simmons]

We've got to improve this. I have to send the troops down to fuck with the NFC South.

[Sal]

They're relegated. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, we got to get rid of this entire division. It's terrible. It's Bad football. It's bad.

[Sal]

We're bringing the SEC in to take their place.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, we'll take a break and then we're going to do NFC West. NFC west is up most wins by a division. As I mentioned earlier, NFC north was 45 wins last year. Could this be a candidate for you to have the most wins this year? No. NFC West. No.

[Sal]

Okay. No.

[Bill Simmons]

All right. Glad we covered that. San Francisco is our first team over 10 and a half. Football fans get amnesia every August. They forget what happened the season before. They punted on the fact that San Francisco was 6 and 11 last year. Made a bunch of excuses for them. Meanwhile, they lost like 10 starters or close to be starters and it's a pretty top heavy team. I thought this stat was incredible. San Francisco, for the past 22 years, they've either made the NFC title game or missed the playoffs with no in between.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

22 years going back to 2003. What the hell is that?

[Sal]

That's good. I would take that.

[Bill Simmons]

How's that possible?

[Sal]

I'd take that in a heartbeat. That's great.

[Bill Simmons]

I have them. Division plus 155. Conference 9 to 1. Playoffs minus 200. It's been rising nonstop. I'm under.

[Sal]

Yeah. When we did the. When we did the. Over. Under guessing those, the win total. I don't know. What do we do? Is that what we did? We did this in March.

[Bill Simmons]

We kind of did. Yeah, we did. Like when the first things came out, what jumped out to us?

[Sal]

This is the gut reactions. This is. I got off the zoom. This is the last one we did. Yeah, I got off the zoom. I had to go for a walk. I was like, do I know anything about football? This is crazy. How are they favored to win the division, let alone. What is it, nine and a half, ten?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, ten and a half.

[Sal]

Ten and a half. And yet. Well, I took this time and I was like, damn it. They tanked. For a goddamn easy schedule. They fricking did it. They did it. So all you really have to trust is, and this is a lot like, if Trent Williams and Purdy aren't playing in the same game, you're kind of in trouble. Like, they're so top heavy, right. Their money's in Purdy, Warner, Kittle, Bosa, Ayuk, you know, so Those guys, there's $113 million right there. I'm going to go 10 and 7. I can't believe how easy this schedule is. They were the most injured team last year. And it goes as far, I should say CMC is also obviously in that equation with Purdy and Williams. So I don't know. I'm going 10 and seven.

[Bill Simmons]

I went 10 and seven as well. So that means we're both under. They had 6, 20, 24 wins. They beat the jets, the Pats, Seattle, Dallas, Tampa and Chicago. And the Seattle win was on a Thursday night. Tampa win was without Evans, Godwin or McMillan. They had some awful, awful, awful coaching and special team stuff that's now been forgotten by history. They had the best DBOA of an 11 loss team since 1978. So that would indicate maybe this would be a little better. But they had to pay Purdy. They ruined all their depth of good players. They have this kind of studs and scraps. Team Ayuk's not coming back probably till October.

[Sal]

Yeah, they got a while.

[Bill Simmons]

So they look like they're. They're scrounging for receivers. McCaffrey's allegedly healthy now. We'll see where he looks like in six weeks. D line situation's bad. They drafted Michael Williams. Is it Michael or is it Mikel?

[Sal]

Is it Mikel?

[Bill Simmons]

I think it's Mikel Williams.

[Sal]

Yeah. Yeah, Mikel. The edge from Georgia.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Sal]

So he's opposite.

[Bill Simmons]

Bad preseason.

[Sal]

Yeah. Right.

[Bill Simmons]

They thought they'd get more from him, and yet the schedule's so awful. I don't know how they don't win 10 games.

[Sal]

I know.

[Bill Simmons]

So this. So basically what we're predicting is this will be the first time they make the playoffs.

[Sal]

But don't win. Go to the title game. Yeah. Yeah. They lost Hargrave. They lose Floyd, Malik Collins, but they get Robert Salah.

[Bill Simmons]

Oh, I screwed up. I have them going eight and nine.

[Sal]

All right. What?

[Bill Simmons]

I forgot that I changed this. Yeah. I went with some other teams in this division.

[Sal]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I can do it. Even with the schedule, I couldn't do it.

[Sal]

Sure. You want to look at it again?

[Bill Simmons]

No, we're getting groggy. I went eight, nine for them, and even though the schedule, I just couldn't get there with the rest of the team.

[Sal]

Four games versus teams with a winning record. Plus nine net rest. Robert Salabac. I think that's good. I know we made fun of them sometimes. These guys are defensive coordinators and that's. That's what they do.

[Bill Simmons]

They have two decent guys in their defense and they're both really good. Bosa and Warner.

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

They have no injury flexibility whatsoever.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

That's.

[Sal]

That's what you have to believe.

[Bill Simmons]

Kittle, McCaffrey, Purdy, Bosa, Warner. This is five stars and an above average offensive line. And Shanahan and I just think they're better teams in the division.

[Sal]

Going into the schedule I was like I'm going to hammer this team. Like I'm under. I'm sticking to our or Guns and the March podcast. And then I saw the schedule. I'm like, shit, they're gonna. They're gonna beat Jacksonville, they're gonna beat Atlanta, they're gonna beat Carolina. They're gonna be Tennessee and Indianapolis. Ten wins.

[Bill Simmons]

I have. We're both under anyway. RAMS overs nine and a half divisions plus 200 second place is plus 220 playoffs minus 144 two questions can Matthew Stafford hold up? And but seriously, can Matthew Stafford hold up? Are my two questions for this one.

[Sal]

I'll take the second one. What do you got? I've been embarrassed by the Rams over the years. Right. Like I said, they were going to have the season from hell two years ago when Stafford had spine problems. Friggin spine.32 at the time is fine. And then they made the playoffs and I'm fading them again. I think they were lucky to be in a division where the 49ers were bad. I don't think that's going to happen. And I like Arizona to be resilient. They had a lot of offensive line injuries. The thing that is tough about aside from McVay being the coach, they always have a third rounder that comes out out of nowhere and becomes on his way to being the best in the game. So that might be Josiah Stewart, the edge from Michigan. I don't know. You never want to stick a guy with McVay with six wins but he's made the playoffs five in the last seven years. That's what I'm doing. I think eventually it's going to be Jimmy G or Stetson Bennett and those guys aren't going to get it done.

[Bill Simmons]

They upgraded to Devonte Adams from Cup seems like an upgrade. They had this Larry Johnson left tackle situation with the blood clots but they think he's going to be ready to play. Linebackers aren't great. Defensive back might be shaky. They're 20th in defensive DBOA last year. There's a lot of reasons not to like them. I just think they have a lot of good players. Like. Like when I was doing my rankings I had them at 22. Yeah, the schedule's pretty easy. I trust McVeigh and honestly with Garoppolo we've seen McVeigh rejuvenate different guys. So we've had a rejuvenated quarterback every year for the last couple. We had Baker, we had Geno Smith. Last year we had Darnold.

[Sal]

I think that's.

[Bill Simmons]

And I wonder if Garoppolo is the rejuvenated guy this year.

[Sal]

I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know. So best case scenario, Stafford. He's okay with the back.

[Sal]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

But I don't know. Maybe he rejuvenates Jimmy G. I just.

[Sal]

I hate betting against it. This is probably. I'm going to regret this the most, but that's where I had him.

[Bill Simmons]

So this goes back to the conundrums we have during the futures. You have the Rams, you have the Niners, and I think you have to pick one of those. I don't think they both make it again because you also have the three and three outro. Both those teams or one of those teams made the playoffs last year.

[Sal]

Right. They had 10 wins last year. So they go back to over. Out of it.

[Bill Simmons]

You're going over, going, yeah, nine and a half. I'm going over. I'm on 10 wins.

[Sal]

I'm way under. I think I have seven.

[Bill Simmons]

Arizona's eight and a half. This is everyone's hipster team. Shield did a thing on his podcast about this. Yeah, that. This is the. Everybody loves how they're coached and there's good defensive and offensive metrics with them. And people just like this team. I don't really get it because I did all my talent ranking stuff and I just didn't. I had Connor, Harrison, McBride, Sweat and Baker as the only guys who you would even give a chip designation. I only had them 6 points total. I have some real concerns about Kyler Murray. Is that cool considering he's 36 and 54 or 45?

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And I just like the other teams in the division more. I don't really understand the case.

[Sal]

You're going to hate me. You're going to win the division winner.

[Bill Simmons]

God damn it.

[Sal]

11 and 6. I think Gannon has a shot at coach of the year. Even the cards, the uncut cards are laughing at me right now. They got the offensive line coming back.

[Bill Simmons]

Swing team, huh?

[Sal]

I know he has to be better in the fourth quarter and closing out games and down the stretch and all that. But, you know, they open at New Orleans, Carolina, at San Francisco, Tennessee and at Indy is in there. You know, they could be like 5 and 1 or 4 and 1 and they're like, oh, watch out for this team. And then once they get a little confidence, they could be all right. They signed Sweat Tomlinson, Campbell. They drafted Nolan and Birch for defense. You know.

[Bill Simmons]

Except Nolan's already hurt.

[Sal]

Yeah, I know he's hurt. Yeah. I just. They have Chuck Bryce, Cam Richardson. Those are four of the first six weeks they're at special teams. Is awful like that. They have to fix like dumb shit. They had gave up 30, 31 yards per kickoff return.

[Bill Simmons]

Dumb Kyler Murray plays.

[Sal]

Yeah. So I don't know. I think Marvin Harrison Jr. Could have a better year. Bottom five last three years in injury luck. I think it actually comes together for the Arizona Cardinals. 11 and 6.

[Bill Simmons]

I can't believe you.

[Sal]

Yep, that's it.

[Bill Simmons]

I have them at 9 and 8 and I really deferring to the schedule stuff the schedules. We talked about this. This NFC west going against the two Souths is just an absolute godsend for both all four of those teams. I like the other team more. And I have Seattle winning the division. Yeah. Five to one.

[Sal]

Couldn't win the division with them.

[Bill Simmons]

Five to one plus 164 for the playoffs. They finished 107 last year. Sal.

[Sal]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

And here's the crucial thing, because we haven't talked about this yet. This is the nobody believes in us team. Everybody believes in the Cardinals. All the hipsters love them. Everyone's like making cases for them. Who's making cases for the Seahawks? It's just like Pittsburgh last year. I think there's first of all, new offensive coordinator, revamped offensive line. Everybody loves that Gray Zable. They're doing some zone blocking with Kubiak. They're good running backs. Looks like that Tory Horton they might have hit on as a rookie receiver. JSN I think is one of the. He's not one of the five best receivers in the league, but he's in the top 10. And then people just see Darnold and they're like, we're out. Oh, sorry. You don't like the guy who went 14 and 3 last year?

[Sal]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know. Is going from Geno Smith to Darnold. Is that a downgrade?

[Sal]

I mean, I'm not. I don't want to crap on him because I have them at 9, 8. So they were 10 7. So I think they're going to be one game less. I think Mike McCarthy, Donald got a little bit of a raw deal where he had Geno Smith and he had DK and Tyler Lockett. Now it's like, yeah, you got Sam Darnold and Cooper cup, but he's pretty good. Yeah. So there was seven one on the road last year probably not happen again. Six and two and one score games probably not happen again. Want to go over the quarterbacks they faced? Rookie Bo Nix, rookie Caleb Williams, Backup Jacobe Brissette, Skyler Thompson, Tim Boyle, Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray twice. I know I like him this year. Aaron Rodgers.

[Bill Simmons]

I feel like we lost money in their division bet multiple times.

[Sal]

Yeah, we definitely have. So you know they have a good job schedule.

[Bill Simmons]

Back at you. Because everyone says the Niners have the easiest schedule. They play the same AFC South, NFC south combo. Yep. They played Pittsburgh, Washington and Minnesota as their second place teams. And we don't have any of those teams in the playoffs.

[Sal]

That's why I have them with nine.

[Bill Simmons]

There's a home home field advantage that they used to have at least. I really like the coaching stuff. I thought McDonald, like people forget he was the Ben Johnson of last year as this like defensive guru. So I don't know. I just, I think they have enough talent. I had them with four chippers on defense, good special teams. I thought they had another great draft. They've had two good drafts in a row, which is a good sign.

[Sal]

They didn't really spend on offensive line and half of Darnold's drop backs are three plus seconds. Yeah. So he's like bottom five when pressured. So that's gotta, that's the thing.

[Bill Simmons]

If you go through all four teams in this division, it's the hardest division. You could make a case against all of them pretty convincingly for sure. And I think this one has the least variance for. I know they can run the ball, I think they can be a top five defense and I think they, they can make some plays with jsn. Darnold isn't going to go from being good last year to just awful.

[Sal]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

And I believe in the team. All right. So for playoff teams, I have Philly, Green Bay, Tampa and Seattle as the four division winners. And then I have Detroit, Chicago and the Rams as playoff teams. So the only new teams I have in the NFC are Chicago and Seattle.

[Sal]

Yeah, we're all over the place. You and I have the Eagles, Lions, Bucks, Cardinals, Packers, 49ers, Falcons are my wild cards.

[Bill Simmons]

Falcons. You're going to regret that.

[Sal]

One, two south teams.

[Bill Simmons]

Can I, can I put an extra bet on you regretting the Falcons?

[Sal]

What am I doing? One of those teams. Right. How do I take two south teams?

[Bill Simmons]

Unbelievable. All right, that's it for the nfc. Thanks to gao, thanks to Cerutty. We're going to bid adieu for this two part pod. But we're taping a third part that's going to be the bet the Futures Draft that we did last year. And on Sunday, we're going to do guest alliance for week one, our 19th year. And then at the end, we're going to put the Futures Draft.

[Sal]

You don't have to take them through the magic of editing stuff.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. So you're going to see us on Zoom and then we're going to be back here like we went backwards.

[Sal]

We'll be wearing different shit. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. How was this? Good pace for you?

[Sal]

I loved it. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Similarly, less than three hours. Good pace for us.

[Sal]

You know, I got to stretch my back. I went to the doctor real quick and I gained 10 pounds and I knew that. I knew that. But then she's like, oh, you gained 10 pounds? I said, listen to me. Last time I saw you, I went crazy losing weight just so that I wouldn't come in heaviest. That's not going to be me anymore. Whatever I am, I'm coming in at. If that affects our friendship, so be it. But it's not what I'm doing anymore. I go to family reunions. Everyone looks like me. This is what I'm supposed to be.

[Bill Simmons]

So do you feel like we had a good handle on this year or no?

[Sal]

I think we did. You don't want to talk about my doctor visits anymore?

[Bill Simmons]

No, I'm just. I'm.

[Sal]

I like it. I think there are definitely some teams like the ones we went over in the west that I could just be look foolish the whole year and maybe overrating the NFC South. But what do you think? Predict. Go ahead. 20 and 12.

[Bill Simmons]

I think I'm 19 and 13 this year.

[Sal]

Really? Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

How about you?

[Sal]

What a regression that would be?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, big regression.

[Sal]

Eight, eight.

[Bill Simmons]

Me and the Washington Commanders.

[Sal]

Yeah. Yeah, I'll say six and 26.

[Bill Simmons]

Cuz. Good job by you.

[Sal]

Good job by you.

[Bill Simmons]

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