The Bill Simmons Podcast: "The Best College QBs With Todd McShay. Plus, the Irresistible Jags, the Resistible Steelers, and NFL Week 4 Picks With Joe House"

Date: September 26, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Todd McShay, Joe House

Episode Theme

Bill Simmons sits down with Todd McShay to break down the state of college football quarterbacks, with special attention to risers and fallers ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. The latter half features Joe House, as they dissect the most intriguing NFL Week 4 matchups (Ringer 107 picks), discuss the enigmatic Jacksonville Jaguars, the troubled Steelers, and offer insights on the Ryder Cup and sports betting strategy.

Key Sections & Topics

1. College QB Stock Watch with Todd McShay

(04:20–29:00)

The State of College Football and the 2026 QB Class

• Simmons and McShay agree college football gets a "B minus" so far, but Week 5 could bump it up, with marquee matchups ahead (04:21).
• McShay opens up about the "frustrating year": many highly touted QBs have disappointed, "I was screaming at everybody, 'This is the golden age of quarterbacks'…so far it's been really disappointing." (05:19)

Biggest QB Disappointments

• Cade Klubnik (Clemson): Once McShay's preseason #1, now on the brink of being benched, looks "panicky" and uncomfortable without his top WR (06:08–07:30).
• "Were you shocked it turned out this badly, this fast?"—Simmons (05:55)
• "Yes, and I'm here to freely admit it."—McShay (06:08)

Fastest Risers & New Stars

• Dante Moore (Oregon):
  • McShay: "Dante Moore from Oregon is the best passer of the football in all of college football…he's what the NFL is looking for." (07:55)
  • "I'm all in on this guy." (08:54)
  • Moore's "smooth criminal" passing, likened to Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and Baker Mayfield.
  • Caution: "He might be the number one pick next April, but I hope for his sake he returns to school" (09:47)
  • Will Stein gets praise for developing Moore/previous QBs like Bo Nix. (10:01)

Preseason QB Rankings—Misses & Surprises

• Klubnik, Nussmeier, Sellers, Mendoza, Penn State's dual QBs—all over the map in preseason, most not living up to hype.
• "We're trying to predict kids who are 19, 20, 21…who the fuck knows what's happening with them off the field?"—Simmons (10:56)
• On Arch Manning, McShay says "just wasn't ready" and speculates on the impossible pressure and expectations (12:11, 14:38):
  • "Arch is an economy right now in Austin…he can't go to a convenience store without people filming him." (15:03)

Analysis of Up-and-Down Prospects

• Nussmeier (LSU): "Best neck-up QB in the country", but overcorrected his aggression, now hesitant. (17:28)
• John Mattier (Oklahoma): “A lunatic…he’s a faster Baker Mayfield,” betting on himself after a wild transfer journey (19:09–20:17)
• Sellers: "Most physically gifted," but "furthest away development-wise," likened to Anthony Richardson in rawness. (22:07)
• Pros and cons of the transfer portal: McShay sees massive player development benefits—"Bo Nix, Cam Ward, Jaden Daniels—none would be where they are without transferring." (23:43)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "He's number one neck up, in the neck up board." (22:22, on Nussmeier)
• "This is just the sport now, where we have no idea where this guy's going to be next year."—Simmons on transfer portal era (23:02)
• "I hate sitting here on your show...and saying Dante Moore's the best, just for the record."—McShay (24:32)

2. Quick-Hit Scouting: More QBs & Future Prospects

(27:28–34:00)

Mendoza (Indiana):

• "6'5", 225, mobility, good arm—numbers look great, but let's see how he finishes against better competition" (27:28)
• Projected as a top-50 pick if development continues.

Carson Beck (Miami):

• "Had to quit Carson Beck like cigarettes...He looks like he loves the game again." (29:07)
• Redemption story: left Georgia, found a groove in Miami, "he's playing light and free and easy" (31:13)

Others:

• Sawyer Robertson (Baylor), Drew Allar (Penn State): Noted as talented but inconsistent.
  • "If you’re not mobile and can’t run around and you’re not accurate, why are you a first round prospect?"—McShay on Allar (31:48)
• Transfer stories and developmental trajectories addressed throughout.

NFL-Ready Intangibles ("Neck-Up" Scale):

• "Who's your neck-up all-time winner?"
  • "Andrew Luck...Too smart for the Colts."—McShay (34:21)

3. NFL "Cut the Shit" QBs, The Jags, Steelers & More (with Todd McShay & Joe House)

(34:42–61:36)

Trevor Lawrence: The Ultimate "Cut the Shit" QB

• "Are you good or not? Can you just tell us?"—Simmons (34:45)
• Both are frustrated: "I can't envision...where he outduels Mahomes or Josh Allen...It's hard to imagine he's ever going to take that next step." (36:05)

CJ Stroud:

• "Shocked by that...It's a dumpster fire," McShay points to Texans’ offensive line woes (38:56)

Justin Herbert:

• Simmons and McShay debate Herbert's rise: "He seems different this year...I'm seeing a different guy and the way he's carrying himself on/off the field, all of it."—McShay (41:13, 43:24)

Jared Goff:

• Praised for recent growth and confidence post-McVay trade: "He is significantly better now than he was as a prospect...I just pull for Goff."—McShay (45:42–46:53)
• Both note Detroit’s offense looks strong even without Ben Johnson, proving doubters wrong (47:07).

Notable Quotes & Soundbites

• "I just wondered if Herbert would ever be like that [a ‘prick’ alpha]...now I'm starting to see a little bit of prick in him. And it's good."—McShay (42:44)
• "We're bad at this. I almost want to guarantee a 4-1 this week, but I'm not going to put that..."—Simmons on their NFL picks performance (82:54)

4. NFL Week 4 Picks: Ringer 107 with Joe House

(65:11–103:12)

Overview

• Simmons and House walk through stay-aways and actionable bets for NFL Week 4, focusing on injuries, offensive/defensive splits, and psychological traps.
• Picks are collaboratively discussed, with notable agreement on certain teams and matchups.

Stay-Away Games

• Rams-Colts, Bills-Saints (over two TD line), Dolphins-Jets, Broncos-Bengals due to unpredictability, while stating "Chiefs plus two and a half at home against the Ravens" as a tempting but ultimately risky proposition. (65:59–73:35)

Pick Highlights

• Raiders (-1.5) at Bears: "Double zag... I feel like we're getting a free point." (84:12)
• Jaguars (+3.5) at 49ers: "I like the Jags, just in general."
• Falcons (+1.5) vs. Commanders: "I think they bounce back, I really like the Falcons." (89:07)
• Vikings (-1.5) vs. Steelers in Ireland: "Violates all your rules...but the Steelers are a fraudulent team." (91:55)
• Patriots (-5.5) vs. Panthers: Both bullish on Pats, cite Panthers offensive woes and think Patriots are "better than their record." (95:05)

Betting Philosophy & Inside Jokes

• On laying points: "We're grown ass men… we're going to lay the five and a half. We're trying to win picks on this show."
• Bad Idea Jeans references, the “neck-up” scale, and betting rules about avoiding rookie QBs and international games.

Notable Quotes

• "If they can't win by seven against this Panthers team, this season's going to be awful."—Simmons (96:47)

5. Ryder Cup Betting + Closing (with Joe House)

(104:12–114:41)

Ryder Cup Preview & Betting Angles

• House advocates betting Europe at +170: "My take is...it's basically 50/50," noting Team Europe’s continuity and undervalued price (105:57).
• Bill ponders whether the Bethpage crowd will have real energy—cites US Open tennis audiences as a possible template (106:43).

House’s Betting Picks

• "Lead-off is Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas up against Jon Rahm and Tyrell Hatton...I love the Rahm-Hatton combo." (109:17)
• Europeans to lift the trophy at +125 (113:32)
• Victor Hovland as a value play over Cam Young

Inside Jokes & Ryder Cup Color

• House: "All I have to do is find the smoking area. That's where Baby Doll will be." (112:00)
• Bill: "Find the odds on FanDuel for amount of hours Baby was at the Ryder Cup compared to LA for Jimmy Show." (112:12)

Final NFL Picks

• "Ringer 107" final picks commit to Jags, Falcons, Vikings, Patriots, and a Packers/Chiefs alternate line parlay, aiming to reverse their early season struggles (101:29–104:12).

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• "This is the golden age of quarterbacks...so far it’s been really disappointing." – Todd McShay (05:19)
• "Dante Moore from Oregon is the best passer of the football in all of college football...he’s what the NFL is looking for." – McShay (07:55)
• "Arch is an economy right now in Austin...he can't go to a convenience store without people filming him." – McShay (15:03)
• "Are you good or not? Can you just tell us?" – Bill Simmons (34:49)
• "I can't envision Trevor Lawrence outdueling Mahomes or Josh Allen...It's hard to imagine he's ever going to take that next step." – McShay (36:05)
• "He seems different. I'm seeing a different guy and the way he's carrying himself on/off the field, all of it." (on Herbert) – McShay (43:24)
• "We're bad at this. I almost want to guarantee a 4-1 this week, but I'm not going to put that..." – Simmons (82:58)
• "If they can't win by seven against this Panthers team, this season's going to be awful." – Simmons (96:47)
• "Europe is basically 50/50...and you can get them at +170." – House (105:57)
• "All I have to do is find the smoking area. That's where Baby Doll will be." – House (112:00)

Tone, Style, and Format Observations

• Tone: Candid, self-deprecating, conversational; McShay and Simmons are open about misses and mistakes, often poking fun at themselves ("bad at this" pick record, "neck-up" scale, "cut the shit QBs").
• Style: Mix of rapid-fire and deep dives; uses humor and analogies (e.g., "Bad Idea Jeans" for risky bets), inside jokes, and running gags, especially about Boston media, betting follies, and NFL heartbreaks.
• Format: Segmented by college QBs, NFL analysis, and picks, moving briskly between topics. Picks are thoroughly discussed with honest uncertainty, and strategic hedges are openly weighed.

Conclusion—Who Should Listen

This episode is a must for serious fans of the college football-to-NFL pipeline, draft junkies, and sports bettors. Insightful, irreverent, and rich with stories about young superstars, draft process landmines, and the nuances of betting, it’s filled with both hard-nosed analysis and plenty of laughs. The "neck-up" QB metric, transfer portal takes, and Ryder Cup rants are particularly entertaining.

Time Markers for Key Segments:

• 04:20 – McShay joins, state of college QBs
• 07:30 – Dante Moore discussion
• 12:11 – The Arch Manning dilemma
• 29:07 – Carson Beck resurrection story
• 34:42 – NFL “cut the shit” QBs
• 65:11 – Week 4 odds and picks with Joe House
• 104:12 – Ryder Cup preview/bets

For more from The Bill Simmons Podcast, visit The Ringer or follow on your favorite podcast platform.