The Colbert-CBS Drama and NFL Leap Team Possibilities With Matt Belloni and Nate Tice

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast: The Colbert-CBS Drama and NFL Leap Team Possibilities With Matt Belloni and Nate Tice

Release Date: July 21, 2025

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1. Introduction

In this episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, host Bill Simmons delves into the recent turmoil surrounding Stephen Colbert's show on CBS and explores the shifting landscape of late-night television. Additionally, the podcast features insights from Matt Belloni and Nate Tice on potential NFL teams poised to make significant leaps in the upcoming season.

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2. The Colbert-CBS Drama

a. Cancellation of Stephen Colbert's Show

Bill Simmons opens the discussion by addressing the shocking cancellation of Stephen Colbert's late-night show on CBS. This move marks a significant shift in the late-night television landscape, raising questions about the future of established formats.

b. Financial Struggles and Economic Factors

Nate Tice provides an in-depth analysis of the financial reasons behind the show's cancellation. He reveals that the show was losing approximately $40 million annually.

Nate Tice [05:46]: "The show costs more than $100 million a year to make... It's losing about $40 million, which is not tenable."

c. Comparison with Other Late-Night Shows

The hosts compare Colbert's show with other late-night staples like Jimmy Fallon and Jimmy Kimmel, highlighting differences in social media footprints and ancillary revenue streams.

Nate Tice [06:24]: "Late show is a complicated thing because it's produced by CBS studios... It doesn't have much value after it airs."

d. Changing Nature of Late Night TV

Bill Simmons emphasizes the lack of innovation within the late-night format, questioning why networks haven't adapted to the evolving media consumption habits.

Bill Simmons [08:50]: "There wasn't any innovation with the model... They were doing it the same way 10 years ago."

e. Impact on Other Hosts and Future of the Genre

The discussion extends to the potential implications for other late-night hosts like Jon Stewart and the overall viability of late-night TV in the streaming era.

Bill Simmons [20:29]: "When we talk about the future of Late Night, which basically there is no future."

f. Political Influences and Conspiracy Theories

The conversation touches upon possible political motivations influencing the cancellation, including speculations about mergers and pressure from political figures.

Nate Tice [31:21]: "There's a cloud of politics that is hovering over all of this... It's a macro agreement to wipe the slate clean of media that Trump does not like."

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3. The Future of Late Night TV

a. Survivability of Iconic Shows

Despite the cancellations, iconic shows like The Tonight Show and Saturday Night Live (SNL) are discussed as potential survivors due to their established brand and unique formats.

Bill Simmons [28:36]: "The Tonight show would be the last one left."

b. Role of Live Shows

SNL's live format is highlighted as a differentiator that continues to attract viewers, unlike scripted late-night shows that struggle to maintain relevance.

c. Potential for New Formats or Replacements

Speculations arise about the introduction of new formats or the evolution of existing shows to adapt to changing viewer preferences and economic pressures.

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4. Influence of Streaming and Digital Media

The hosts analyze how streaming platforms and digital media consumption are eroding traditional late-night TV audiences. They discuss the challenges broadcasters face in retaining viewers who prefer on-demand content.

Nate Tice [22:10]: "The Daily show is on Comedy Central... it's less expensive to produce than Late Show, but if they just cut bait on Jon Stewart, then we know this is pressure."

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5. NFL Leap Team Possibilities

Transitioning from Hollywood to the gridiron, Bill Simmons engages Matt Belloni and Nate Tice in a discussion about NFL teams expected to make significant improvements in the upcoming season. They categorize teams into three groups:

a. Playoff Team to Legit Contender

These teams are poised to transition from playoff participants to serious Super Bowl contenders.

• Rams: With key players like Devonte Adams and a stronger offensive line, the Rams are seen as having a "snowball's chance in hell" to win the Super Bowl.

  Matt Belloni [61:47]: "Devonte Adams still has plenty left in the tank... they have a really good pass rush."

• Texans: Elevated by a strong defense and returning starters on offense, the Texans are considered a fresh threat in their conference.

  Matt Bellany [62:12]: "They have a really good pass rush and decent linebackers."

b. Blah Team to Playoff Team

These are teams with mediocre records that could surprise and secure playoff spots through strategic improvements or favorable circumstances.

• Bengals, Colts, Miami Dolphins: Each has unique challenges and potential areas for growth, though skepticism remains about their overall impact.

  Matt Belloni [78:35]: "Bengals are a nine-win team... I respect that the defense is terrible."

c. Out of Nowhere Teams

Teams that are currently underperforming but have the potential to unexpectedly surge into prominence.

• Cardinals and Bears: With revamped defenses and strategic player acquisitions, these teams might defy expectations and make significant leaps.

  Matt Belloni [94:56]: "The Cardinals have a top 10 defense and an explosive offense, making them frisky."

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6. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with the hosts expressing excitement for the upcoming NFL season and the evolving dynamics of late-night television. Bill Simmons emphasizes the unprecedented nature of the current Hollywood climate and the uncertainty surrounding traditional TV formats, while also looking forward to potential surprises in the NFL landscape.

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Notable Quotes

• Nate Tice [05:46]: "The show costs more than $100 million a year to make... It's losing about $40 million, which is not tenable."

• Bill Simmons [08:50]: "There wasn't any innovation with the model... They were doing it the same way 10 years ago."

• Matt Belloni [61:47]: "Devonte Adams still has plenty left in the tank... they have a really good pass rush."

• Nate Tice [31:21]: "There's a cloud of politics that is hovering over all of this... It's a macro agreement to wipe the slate clean of media that Trump does not like."

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Final Thoughts

This episode provides a comprehensive exploration of the challenges facing late-night television, epitomized by the cancellation of Stephen Colbert's show, and offers insightful predictions on the NFL teams set to rise in the coming season. With expert analysis from Matt Belloni and Nate Tice, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of both the entertainment industry's shifts and the strategic moves within the world of football.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

Lowe's knows that taking on more projects should be rewarding. That's why loyalty members get more every day with rewards for every home or business purchase. Plus shop weekly member deals to get access to free standard shipping. So what are you waiting for? Join my Lowe's Rewards for Free Today Loyalty program subject to terms and conditions details@lowe's.com terms subject to change this episode is brought to you by HubSpot. You know what separates champions from lottery teams? Efficiency. And that's exactly what HubSpot delivers for your business. It creates Time Breeze. Their built in AI acts like your elite point guard, automatically handling marketing, sales and service tasks while you focus on strategy. Customers are getting hours back each week and cutting sales cycles in half. That's like turning time killing ISO plays into easy fast breaks. Visit HubSpot.com AI to transform your business game Today the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented to you by the Ringer Podcast Network where you can find a bunch of awesome shows and podcasts. You can find a great website, you can find the rewatchables. We do that every Monday night. We did Species. This time around we're getting weird. We got weird in July because we had the 400th movie coming. August is going to be action packed. I think I'm going to do one name movie month in August. But August is going to be. This is the last one for us. I wanted to get a little wacky. It's July, there's no sports, nothing's going on, everybody's on vacation. But we're about to kick into a pretty good year here anyway. Species. A movie that would not be made in 2025. Me, Van Lathan, Chris Ryan. This is a very funny podcast so you can check it out on Spotify, you can check it out wherever you get your podcasts or in The Ringer Movies YouTube channel. So I cut down a Sundays, at least for July, which is great. I needed to refuel some batteries, work on some Spotify Ringer stuff, and most importantly, I needed to start prepping for the football season. I have a whole process. It's weird. I'm the only one who really understands it. I have to do everything. I type everything in by hand. I type in the schedules, I type in everybody's odds. I do these weird player rankings. I'm like a psycho. But it's this whole process. So I'm at the end of phase one of it. So later in this podcast we're bringing in our friend Nate Tice and we're going to talk about three levels of teams that could make a leap in 2025, because you start thinking about the futures, what's going to happen. So that's coming up later. Big football podcast conversation with Nate, but leading off with Matt Bellany, who hosts the Town for us. But we got to talk about Stephen Colbert, cbs, Trump, Skydance, Paramount, everything that's going on. How does this affect Jon Stewart? Is late night TV dead? There are just so many storylines with this that it's the rare podcast where we're leading with Hollywood stuff. So that's all coming up next. I had a whole NBA thing I was going to do, but I think I'm going to save that for a later podcast. So that's it. That's what I got for you. Matt Bellany, Nate Tice, Hollywood football all next. Let's take a break and then pro. All right, Matt Bellany is here. He hosts a great podcast called the Town for the Ringer. He you can also read him on Puck. And we have Friday news dumps in media and there's been some great ones over the year. When we get to July, you can almost pull off the Thursday news dump. Matt Bellamy and CBS did this. They shockingly, although I guess it wasn't as shocking as maybe it felt when it happened, Shockingly got rid of Stephen Colbert's show in May. It's going to be gone. This could be the death of late night TV on cbs. And as you've covered in Puck and you covered on your podcast on Friday, we are moving toward a different era of late night, which might not even be an era. Were you surprised by this when you heard the news?

[Nate Tice]

Yes. The short answer is yes, because I didn't think they would pull the plug like that. I thought there would be a protracted cuts and salary reduction and an attempt to save the show rather than simply cut bait. But at the time, I didn't know, and I think most people around town did not know how much money Late show was losing each year because CBS had kept that pretty quiet. And once I got into the numbers, it makes sense there that they would say, you know what, this is not salvageable. This is not a matter of Colbert taking a 30% pay cut, firing some people, getting rid of the ban, all the things that we've seen in other areas of Late Night, there was just a big chasm because the show costs more than $100 million a year to make. Depending on who you believe, it's well over $40 million that it's losing, or about 40 million, which is what my Sourcing says. Now there are some caveats to that and some ancillary revenue that's not counted there, but that's just not tenable. And then you have the politics angle, which we can discuss. But no, once you get into the numbers, it's not surprising I have the.

[Bill Simmons]

Politics angle saved for the second piece of this, the first part. So you reported $40 million a year. It's losing, which seemed high to me when. But I'm not going to say I don't believe it, but it seemed high. I always wonder with studios. We see this all the time with back end deals, with movies and you know, they, they can kind of rig numbers however they want. What? How come I know they're telling you 40 million?

[Nate Tice]

Well, my sourcing is telling me.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, we're sourcing, you're hearing.

[Nate Tice]

But it's not just coming from one source. Let's just say that.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, but I'm saying I run these.

[Nate Tice]

Numbers by many people in the ecosystem of a show.

[Bill Simmons]

But we've seen people go the other way with this where if they want to brag about something, they could say, oh, it's making this.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah, it's generating this amount in revenue, which is what they often will say, not accounting for the costs. And Late show is a complicated thing because it's produced by CBS studios. So essentially cbs, the network pays CBS studios a license fee for the show. So it adds another level of complexity. We saw this with Family Guy years ago where Family Guy was technically losing money for Fox, but because Fox produced the show, it was making money because they sold the show all over the world in syndication, other rights where they were making a fortune on it even if they weren't making money on Fox. Now that is not an option that is available to a show like Late show with Stephen Colbert because it is a American topical comedy show. It doesn't have much value. After it airs on the linear channel and on the YouTube channel, it just kind of goes away so that you take away that revenue, you take away the fact that it's a much smaller show on digital footprints. It has about A third the YouTube subscribers, as Jimmy Fallon does on the Tonight show, half of what Kimmel has. And then you look at the other value that Colbert has for cbs where he doesn't do a lot of other things. For cbs, he produced the late night show After Midnight, which got canceled after Taylor Tomlinson left. But he's not hosting the Macy's Day Parade like Fallon is. He's not doing Millionaire for ABC like Kimmel is. It's those two guys have much more of an ingrained relationship with their network than Stephen Colbert does. He just hosted a show, right?

[Bill Simmons]

So what he definitely. The show lost money. There's no question they could probably get creative about how much they're. They're saying it. You made the key point, though. It didn't have the same social media footprint as the two Jimmies, especially because they can make a bunch of money on the YouTube side. This goes backwards, though, because you have to really go to Covid, where that's really when the ad money started to shift for all these shows, partly because of COVID the writer strike. But then you also have just. Habits are shifting, you know, rapidly in real time.

[Nate Tice]

When was the last time you, Bill Simmons, cozied up to a late night show at the 11:30 hour and just sat and watched it?

[Bill Simmons]

I'm always gonna watch it on streaming or on. I'll watch a YouTube clip. The only time I can remember doing this recently was with Jon Stewart's first show back.

[Nate Tice]

I will occasionally watch Stewart if I'm like, up and I will flip over. But Colbert was getting 2.5 million viewers on average on linear, which, shockingly, in this day and age, it was the leading show according to that metric on broadcast. Now, if you talk, the Fox News guy, Greg Gutfeld gets more, but that's a whole other thing. It's got.

[Bill Simmons]

And it's on at 11, and the.

[Nate Tice]

Audience is like, you know, literally hooked up to an IV because they're so old. But the fact that the leading show got canceled, I think is shocking to a lot of people. But the stuff that you just talked about, the digital and the other things, that's where it comes into greater focus. And you're like, oh, okay, I get it.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, so here's what I don't get. So the model's changing. They're still making all these late night shows in the same expensive way. They were doing it 20, 25 years ago. Right. Where you have. I don't know how many people work on a late night show, but it's a tough.

[Nate Tice]

They say 200. Colbert said 200.

[Bill Simmons]

Colbert 175 to 200 people working on a show that you're delivering four nights a week, 40 weeks a year, taking summers off, 40 weeks a year. So it's so in the old days, the motto for the late night show was, well, this is eating innings. Like, almost like a starter that can throw 250 innings in baseball. It's like, oh, every five days we get to trot this out.

[Nate Tice]

And it used to be a younger demo. It used to be a place where younger people would go to cbs because usually the primetime audience was older and the Letterman audience was younger at the beginning. And it was really the only place that you would get to see, you know, big stars like Leo DiCaprio or, you know, George Clooney on these networks because they would come on the late night show. And it was sort of a cachet thing.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, it was the number one stop if you were promoting anything. And then as we saw, really in the last, I would say, since the 2016 election, when podcasts became, you know, moved into the conversation for all that stuff, I just thought it was weird. To me, there wasn't any innovation with the model, and I think there wasn't innovation because these shows made a shitload of money until recently. Until those two events, I think they kind of didn't want to change. It was like, well, if it ain't broken, don't fix it. But when you think about it, you have all these people that work for a show, you have really talented hosts, and you have this social media, all these side things you could be doing to just kind of do the show the same way you did it 10 years ago. Does it make sense? So the part that surprises me, Matt, is they didn't go to him and say, hey, let's make a real effort to try to fix this. The show loses money. Late night is changing. How can we do a completely different show? Maybe you only need 10 people that work for the show. Maybe it's just you doing one long guest. We'll pay your salary, we'll have a couple producers, and that'll just be the show four days a week. Instead they were like, we're out in May. This is a wrap. This is done. And we'll get to, you know, some conspiracy stuff with that. But to not go to him and say, how can we fix this? When he'd been there for, I don't know, a decade, I was really surprised by that.

[Nate Tice]

I think it's hard to do that to a show where there are employees that have worked there for 10, 20 years and a host that is used to making a certain amount, $20 million a year is what I've been told. And to say we need to do something completely different. These people that have been supporting you since you started on this network, 70% of them are gonna be gone. And this salary that you've been making and you've been building up your entire career, you're gonna make half as much as you can.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, but they did it by canceling the show. They did it anyway.

[Nate Tice]

They did.

[Bill Simmons]

So if you're doing it anyway, why isn't there a plan B for it?

[Nate Tice]

Yeah, it's true. And I just think from my sourcing, the response I got to that was it's almost like a level of respect with a host and with a team where it's like, we can't just gut it. Like, there is a certain amount of cutting we can do to these shows that they are still recognizable. You can still do the Seth Meyers show without a band. So they said, your band is gone. You can still do these shows four nights a week without cutting so much to the bone that they're not. They don't feel like nightly talk shows. So they cut all these shows, tonight shows four nights a week. Colbert four nights a week. So there is. But if you start going beyond that, and my understanding is that the. The value and the price, the. The loss discrepancy there was so large that it would have been such a fundamentally different show that it was just hard to have that conversation. That is my understanding. Now we. We can get into the other reasons as well, but I do kind of understand how you either do it or don't. The other thing is CBS owns that building, the Ed Sullivan Theater. And if you look at what they've been doing across the company, they sold Television City in L. A, they sold BlackRock in New York. They are going to sell the Ed Sullivan Theater for a lot of money. So what do you say to Colbert? Oh, and by the way, you're going to move to a tiny studio uptown that is going to make your show look like a. Like it's, you know, John Oliver, where it doesn't feel like a nightly talk show. Like, it just. I don't know. When you start to really look at it, you say, okay, what are we even doing here?

[Bill Simmons]

Right? And maybe this is just a format that now when we're in this TikTok Instagram, YouTube era and we have a kajillion podcasts, that maybe this is. Maybe this is the natural end of the format. I know everybody's been talking about it forever. Kimmel's openly talked about how this is probably his last deal and then maybe do something else. And maybe this is just. Maybe this is how it ends. Like when we were growing up, you watch Carson Live at 11:30. Like, you know, and if you missed it, there was really no way to see what happened unless you started taping on A VCR or something. And now it's like if anything happens. But if anything happens on a late night show now I'll be able to see the clip the next day.

[Nate Tice]

Of course.

[Bill Simmons]

So you've removed all of the. Of the necessity to watch it in the moment.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah. And you talk about innovation and the lack of innovation in the format. I disagree a little bit. Only in the sense that the stuntification of late night, I think is an innovation and the acknowledgement that.

[Bill Simmons]

What does that mean?

[Nate Tice]

Means the viral moment with Olivia Rodrigo, Rihanna and Seth Meyers daydreaming, that's from 10 years ago.

[Bill Simmons]

Mid 2010s was even like, you go back to Jimmy Doo and the I'm fucking Ben Affleck, I'm fucking Matt Damon. That was 2008.

[Nate Tice]

Totally agree. But the Corden show, for instance, largely existed to produce those moments. They knew nobody was watching at 12:30. They didn't even really try at 12:30. They put all their efforts into these franchise bits and segments that not only could live on digital, but became other shows. They were selling carpool, karaoke, the series to Apple. They were selling, you know, there was a, all sorts of things that they sold. They were partnering directly with advertisers to create segments that would live on the 12:30 show, but mostly were there for YouTube. So I think they were tweaking it. It didn't change the fact that these hour long shows were, you know, monologue, bit a celebrity, B, celebrity musical guest, good night. Like that didn't change. And maybe it should have, but I don't know. I just don't think anything could have really stemmed the tide of the viewer erosion that we've seen. People just aren't watching stuff.

[Bill Simmons]

And I know Colbert had a big rating, but cbs, I mean, my dad loves cbs. He was devastated when Blue Bloods got canceled.

[Nate Tice]

Mine too.

[Bill Simmons]

Half of that audience is keeled over on the couch with their heads deer to the right. And just whatever is on is what's getting a, getting a rating. Like, I don't, I don't even know what the answer would have been if I'm cbs. And it's like, let's, let's put something different in here. What should we, let's bring in Theo Vaughn. Maybe we could get Theo. Like they're not doing that. So I don't want that job. No, no. Well, that's, that was the interesting thing with Taylor Thomason because they renewed the show.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

And she said, I actually quit. I don't want to do this anymore because I'M helping her. I was saying this to somebody that a few months ago, actually, Nate Bragazzi, who's an awesome guy who sells out NBA arenas all over the place, right. Anytime he wants, he could just go to another 10, 15, 18, 20,000 venue and do comedy for two hours and he makes a ton of money. That's the kind of guy in 1989 we would have been like, oh, could he be the next 1230 host? And the chances are there's no way he's doing that.

[Nate Tice]

No, he would have taken that job 30 years ago. Look at your guy. Shane Gillis. Shane Gillis would be absolutely groomed for a talk show of some sort or a big studio.

[Bill Simmons]

Because Shane Gillis too edgy to have a show. We would add all.

[Nate Tice]

Or he would have done an R rated comedy for a big studio and had his moment trying to be a movie star. He's not even trying to be a movie star. He's doing his own comedy tour. He did his own show that he brought to Sunday. No, he didn't bring it to Sunday. He did his own show and he sold it to Netflix after he made it. Because he just did it on his own. Like, he doesn't need these platforms because these guys have such big touring businesses on their own.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I look at somebody like Kimmel, Kimmel got the ABC show, which I was lucky enough to get hired for, and get to meet him and get his whole crew. You know, he's on the man show. They have this spot at 12. It's going to be 12:05 ABC right after Nightline. And it's him versus Jon Stewart. And it's like this coveted piece of TV real estate. If you took 2002, Jimmy now and just put him in a time machine, he wouldn't want to host a late night show. He would want to. You know, he would. He would probably try to either have some sort of daily serious stern show, or he would want to have like his version of a big podcast that's four or five days a week. I don't even think toward a late night show.

[Nate Tice]

Right. First of all, he would have already had a following on digital that he owned as his following. True, right.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. They would have owned the man show. They would have been putting out the clips.

[Nate Tice]

Exactly. And he would have had to look and say, okay, do I want to tie myself down to a late night ABC show for Disney, or do I want to own my destiny and grow and yeah, maybe I'll host the sbs. Maybe I'll do other things Like Shane Gillis just did. But I don't need that. Best thing that ever happened to Shane Gillis was he got fired off SNL before he ever aired. Right.

[Bill Simmons]

You're right. No, you're 100%.

[Nate Tice]

He would have gone into the churn and become another one of those people where five years later, we're all saying, oh, well, they have careers afterward. And nobody's saying that about him now. He's a power.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. No, you're right. I think with. With the. When we talk about, like, the future of Late Night, which basically there is no future.

[Nate Tice]

Um, you don't think there's any future? See, that's the. That is the question is like.

[Bill Simmons]

But to me, it's like SNL is still getting huge ratings. And a big piece of that is that it's live. And I do wonder if. And ironically, Jimmy was the one that. His show's called Jimmy Come Alive, because he did it live for.

[Nate Tice]

Wasn't it just a couple weeks?

[Bill Simmons]

Well, it was a couple months, actually. But there are all these reasons why we couldn't do it that way anymore.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah, you were there. I was not there. I. I've heard some stories.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. You know, it wasn't a great model, and it was very unreliable, and a million things could go wrong every day. But ironically, that might be the model that works now for late night, where it's like, this is live. You don't know what the fuck's going to happen.

[Nate Tice]

Hold on to yourself. The wild card in all of this is what the streamers are going to do about this kind of comedy. Because so far, the Late night host model has largely not worked on streaming. There was a Hasan Minhaj show. There's been efforts to take these broadcast shows and put them.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm saying largely, it's never worked. There hasn't been one success.

[Nate Tice]

Oliver and Bill Maher do okay on HBO Max.

[Bill Simmons]

And in fact, Oliver and Bill Maher. Bill maher launched in 2004 and Oliver launched what, 2014.

[Nate Tice]

Those shows do well on the service, whereas Late Night with Stephen. The Late show with Stephen Colbert did not do well on Paramount. And Kimmel's numbers. I don't know what Kimmel's numbers are on Hulu, but I'm betting they're not great because the clips are all free on YouTube for some reason. The Bill Maher and John Oliver shows, they are churn protectors at HBO Max, meaning people are subscribed to those services for those shows and are their fans. And if you cancel them, those people will be pissed and may leave. And they keep people coming back to an app that is not the first choice for a lot of people in streaming. So they have a pretty big value to hbo Max, Netflix, where no one show is particularly important to Netflix because they have so much. They have not been able to launch this kind of comedy. And we just this last week got the numbers for Mulaney and Mulaney did not try to do a mainstream talk show. Everybody's Live with John Mulaney. It was. I watched it many times. I'm a fan. It was not a mainstream show, but I was surprised at how few people watched. He got 1.6 million for the first episode and it went precipitously downhill from there. And it averaged 500,000 viewers for the entire season. Not great.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't think he cared about having a giant audience for that show. I think he wanted. I think they gave him a lot of money to do whatever the hell he wanted.

[Nate Tice]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

And he wanted to make a very meta show that people would love, a small group of people would really, really love. And it might get nominated. I guess it didn't get nominated for awards, but it didn't.

[Nate Tice]

That's. But there was only three categories he got nominated, I believe in some small category. But it, it was renewed. They did, they ordered two seasons. So we'll see if they actually air the second one.

[Bill Simmons]

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[Nate Tice]

Sam B. Had a moment. Sam B. Did okay for a while.

[Bill Simmons]

It got canceled.

[Nate Tice]

It did, Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

I guess that one maybe lasted two years. But what's interesting is we've had a million successful podcasts, right? And we've had podcasts that are weekly, like even Polar's podcast recently. But then we'll have the ones that are three, four, five times a week.

[Nate Tice]

Polar is a perfect example. Polar would have had a talk show 20 years ago.

[Bill Simmons]

20 years ago, NBC 1230.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah, absolutely. Amy Poehler would have been a hot commodity and she would have gotten a show somewhere daytime or, or, or evening, whatever she wanted. Conan is a great, like test case of, of the new normal here because he made it. He had the 12:30 show. They moved into 11:30. Didn't work under those terms of the time that he was there. They'd kill for those numbers now. Then he went to TBS and in cable it kind of worked for a little while. Cause there was still an audience there then. Didn't make sense in cable. Went to do his own podcast and he's never been more popular. He got demoted to podcast territory, quote unquote. And it made him even more popular to the point where Turner gave him a travelog show which got nominated for Emmys and he hosted the freaking Oscars and he got a Kennedy Senator award, you know, like Conan's never been cooler and he's arguably been like put into the wilderness.

[Bill Simmons]

It's crazy. I mean, that the only shows that are the outliers are Saturday Live, Mar and Oliver and then Kimmel's motto. I still think Kimmel and Fallon are really, really, really relevant on YouTube. I mean, they have massive, massive channels. If something happens on those shows, everyone's going to see it. And they were able to crack the code on that. But that doesn't explain why those shows have to be on at 11:35 at night every night. And that's where it gets dicey.

[Nate Tice]

Is Olivia Rodrigo and name your big star Tom Cruise. Is Tom Cruise going on Fallon if it's just a digital show?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, probably not.

[Nate Tice]

I don't know. Because Tom Cruise's people are sophisticated. They know the currency of him going on Fallon is not the 11:30 audience. It's whatever he does and says travels the universe online. But there is a kind of imprimatur of quality and prestige that the Tonight show has with a certain audience. And when you're scrolling through YouTube, it's not just Jimmy Kimmel or Jimmy Fallon doing a stunt with a celebrity. You can get that on Hot Ones. You can get it on Chicken Shop Date. You can get it on a Million Marin. You can get on Bill Simmons. But there's something about the Tonight show that is a differentiator. I don't know how long that branding matters, especially to young people, but it still does kind of matter that it's a TV show.

[Bill Simmons]

The Tonight show would be the last one left.

[Nate Tice]

So you have the Tonight show in your last man standing.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, and I don't even know if it'll be Fallon necessarily. I just think that show never going to replace him.

[Nate Tice]

Someone will get that show and it will outlive Fallon.

[Bill Simmons]

I think that Tonight show and Saturday Live will never. When we're alive, those shows will always exist. Those would be the 2 Kimmel show, where as soon as he's done doing it, that show will be done. Nobody's replacing that. CBS has already punted it. Yeah, but I think that Tonight's show is enough of an institution. I don't know. Like, let's say you're running NBC. Do you want to be the person that got rid of Saturday Night Live in the Tonight Show? You're not. Nobody's doing that.

[Nate Tice]

I agree with you. SNL is a different thing because they can significantly cut the budget of that show once Lauren is gone. And it's still snl. It may not be as Good.

[Bill Simmons]

They could also make more shows. Like they're doing 20 a year.

[Nate Tice]

I know.

[Bill Simmons]

And they sit out the summer when 900 things are happening. I can't believe they do that.

[Nate Tice]

It's partly because of the way the show is made. It's so difficult to make it the way they make. They could have.

[Bill Simmons]

It's an opportunity for somebody to compete with them directly in a real way.

[Nate Tice]

They could do a summer stunt, SNL for four weeks in July and sell ads into it and capture all the news, and people would watch. But Lauren doesn't want to do that.

[Bill Simmons]

No.

[Nate Tice]

Maybe Lawrence on Paul McCartney's yacht For most of the summer.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, Maybe the next person would.

[Nate Tice]

All right, so who do you think is next? Seth obviously has a target.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know. I hate speculating on what shows. No, no, it's not. It's not even. Yeah, I do know, but it's not even that. It's. You could just see where it's heading. I think what was interesting about this Colbert thing, beyond all the stuff we already talked about, is, you know, there's real conspiracy angles with this. With this Paramount being settled. Colbert was killing Trump in the settlement this week. Two days later, the whole thing happens, and they executed it pretty fastidiously.

[Nate Tice]

Yes, but where do you fall on the conspiracy scale? Do you think this is 10% politics, 90% politics?

[Bill Simmons]

I think the show lost money, and I think they. Whatever this merge, this is my take. I don't have full inside information. This is just me reading the tea leaves and being a smart person. I think I'm a smart person. I think this merger's going through. The new guy doesn't want to take over cbs, Paramount, and the first thing you do is get rid of Colbert. But I also think the merger wasn't going through unless they start kowtowing to the President with stuff like this.

[Nate Tice]

Oh, so you think it was a quid pro quo? We will not approve your merger unless you fire Stephen Colbert.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't think it was that. I think it was a concern that this would be the type of. I mean, as we're recording this today, he just said how he wants Washington to become the Redskins again or he's not going to improve the new RFK stadium. I think this is a piece of a bigger chess move where it's not just this. I'm genuinely worried about Stewart's show and the Daily show and whether that's gonna.

[Nate Tice]

Be next, because I think that there is some kind of macro agreement between Paramount, the new owners, David Ellison, and crew and the Trump administration to wipe the slate clean of media that Trump does not like.

[Bill Simmons]

Does Bill think that? I don't know. Does conspiracy Bill think that 100%.

[Nate Tice]

Listen, it's impossible to know. Trump could announce tomorrow that this was all his plan, and I don't think I would believe him if he said it. So we'll know if the Daily show is canceled on Monday, we'll know exactly what's going on. Daily show, by the way, also not a profit center, but we do. But the Daily show is on Comedy Central. There has to be a certain amount of original programming on these cable networks to justify their carriage fees. So the economics are a little different there. It's also a lot less expensive to produce the Daily show than it is to do a show like Late Show. But if they just cut bait on Jon Stewart and the full Daily show, then we know that this is pressure.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, then it's not even worth discussing. I think the irony of this is the Daily show and that Jon Stewart move was not even just a home run for them. It was a grand slam. It completely reinvigorated the show. It reinvigorated him.

[Nate Tice]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

It's been awesome content.

[Nate Tice]

And they've been bragging about it. That's the thing. They put out a press release last week about how Stewart's ratings are up. You don't, you don't do that if you're planning to cancel the show.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, that. But that's the thing. It's, it's. There's so much money at stake and so much real estate with whatever this merger is, that if this is the casualty, it's like, oh, just get rid of those two shows. Like, you know how these freaking super crazy rich people, like, they, these two.

[Nate Tice]

Money losing shows that only cause us headaches.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. I'm like, what? I don't want to deal with this show. I don't want this to be my problem when it comes in. I thought it was interesting that the per you reported on this about how. What's his name? George Cheeks.

[Nate Tice]

George Cheeks.

[Bill Simmons]

Is that these multiple CEOs, right?

[Nate Tice]

Yes. They have three CEOs running Paramount, but Cheeks is in charge of CBS and.

[Bill Simmons]

Chris McCarthy is the one in charge of Comedy Century, who is very instrumental in bringing Stewart back.

[Nate Tice]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

And we also don't know which one of these CEOs who has the most juice. Do they have equal juice?

[Nate Tice]

No. We do know that Chris McCarthy is expected to leave the company and George Cheeks is expected to stay. So my theory that I have voiced on the town is that I think George Cheeks is signaling to the new ownership with this cancellation that he can make the tough, unemotional decisions on money losing sacred cows like Stephen Colbert. And if it happens to please the President at a time when Skydance could really use the President to be happy with them, then that's a added bonus. So I would say I'm less conspiratorial than maybe conspiracy bill is. But I do acknowledge the cloud of politics that is hovering over all of this. I just think that CBS has been looking at this a long time. They know that this is not getting better. It's not like they take a little pay cut here, survive for a year or two, and then they come back when the ad market comes back. The ad market is not coming back in linear television. And, and if you're looking at this unemotionally, shows that are not making money should not be on the air. And we're going to see, I think with the new Skydance regime at Paramount, a significant cut in the original programming on CBS and all the channels. We're going to see prime time get gutted. We're going to see, you know, morning and afternoon prime time already get gutted. It's been gutted. But CBS has been one of the few that is hanging on to scripted programming during primetime. If you look at cbs, they have less of the reality and news programming during primetime than NBC and ABC do. And they've been justifying that because they say their audience is older, they're still watching tv, they still have these hits and they can sell those shows to streaming services later, either their own or another one, or. Or they sell them over, you know, to syndication overseas or wherever. I just think that that money is coming down, down. So maybe CBS stops programming Friday nights. Maybe they in their new on there.

[Bill Simmons]

By the way, they could do what ABC does and just run a three hour Bachelor in Paradise episode, which is what they did on Tuesday night. Or Bachelor in Paradise.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah, or they have Kimmel, you know, do two hours of Celebrity Millionaire on abc.

[Bill Simmons]

They do, they support Celebrity Millionaire.

[Nate Tice]

They do Celebrity Wheel of Fortune. They have Elizabeth Banks doing press your luck during primetime. They have Steve Harvey doing a judge show. There's a judge show starring Steve Harvey on ABC in prime time. It's kind of amazing. And they do that because it's cheap and the economics don't justify the amount of money they spend on scripted. CBS is making a couple comedies this year.

[Matt Bellany]

They.

[Nate Tice]

They're making a comedy called dmv. And the economics on that show, they're shooting it in Montreal. They're paying people nothing. It's like a fraction of what a half hour comedy used to cost on cbs. They're just cutting, cutting, cutting and not doing originals on broadcast because these are like newspapers and magazines now. They are dying businesses, and the only way to make money on them is to suck them dry. Just cut all the costs and take the revenue as long as you can.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, we said in the earlier part of the 2000 and twenties, these networks were just going to become sports, late night and morning programming, news. Yeah. And now the late night piece is going away. There's one part I don't understand with the Colbert piece conspiracy. Bill doesn't understand it, and Bill doesn't understand it either.

[Nate Tice]

Timing, timing.

[Bill Simmons]

Why say until May? Okay, so I don't understand that part. Like, why not just say after September sweeps or November sweeps, we're done. We're going to December. There's no more Colbert show. Why go all the way through May?

[Nate Tice]

Well, first of all, his deal goes all the way through May, so they're paying him regardless. And secondly, the way that producer deals on Colbert work is the producers on the show are signed from September through August. That's actually why this was coming up now. People are like, why now? You know, if they, if they, if this wasn't related to the merger, then just, you know, wait till the deal closes and then fire him then. The reason they had to do it now, according to sources, is they have these deals with producers that go from September through August. And they were going to have to go to these producers and say, oh, honestly, your deal's only going to go through May next year, not August. So what is, what is Joe Blow producer going to think when he hears that, oh, the show's being canceled? Secondly, they had a negotiation coming up. Your guy, baby doll, he would have started to make noises about a new deal right around now if they wanted to keep Colbert for a new deal. And my understanding is that there was some questions like, oh, do we want to get into it with them? Do we want to do this? And it sort of forced the issue. Now, Colbert is the one that wanted to announce it. Now, CBS was not positioning this to be announced right now. I think they knew what the optics would be on this. But Colbert was like, if, if the show's ending, I need to let my people know right away. First of all, they need to look for other jobs. These many of these people have been here for a decade or two. That's not easy to get another job in this world that you need to give them time. And secondly, it's going to leak. These things never hold. So if it's going to leak, he want. They told him Wednesday night, he said, I'm telling my people on Thursday before the show. Put out whatever press release you want and then it'll air on the show Thursday night and done. And he did. And I think the fact that he's got 10 months in the chair to do whatever he wants is going to be pretty interesting.

[Bill Simmons]

So I just want to say I deliberately did not talk to Baby Doll about any of this because I didn't.

[Nate Tice]

Know he was going on vacation.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, yeah, he might not be home either, but I haven't talked to him about any of this. We're taping this on a Sunday and I think it's really important we're taping this on a Sunday because as far as I know, Jon Stewart has a show on Monday and that is going to be the most fascinating show that we've had since the Letterman extortion, whatever that episode was, which we didn't know was coming. First of all, Jon Stewart is already rich and he's already done a million kajillion things and he could give two shits.

[Nate Tice]

Yes, right. For him, it's about his reputation.

[Bill Simmons]

That's it. He doesn't. He is going to stand up for his dude and this is it. This is, in my opinion, one of the most important shows he's ever done. There's no way he's not going to talk about it.

[Nate Tice]

Well, the question is, does he quit on the air?

[Bill Simmons]

I think it's in play. I think it's in play. A must watch show like that, it comes on at 8 o' clock here. I'm definitely watching that live.

[Nate Tice]

Here's a good question. If Stewart just dive bombs, the entire company quits on the air, drops some f bombs, names, names, the whole thing. Do they air it because he tapes?

[Bill Simmons]

I don't think he'll do that because he's got a whole staff working for him. Yeah, and he's going to be. But I also think he's going to have to stand up and I think everybody would have his back about, you know, how he's going to feel about this. But yeah, I don't. If they cancel the show, I think he'll be fine. I don't think it'll be fine for a lot of people that work for it. I think he'll feel bad about that. But this is the whole point of the show. Is he's going to. He has to stand up to this. This is 25 years of him on Comedy Central, basically. Like, you know, I just don't. He doesn't. He's not sitting this one out.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah. And does this issue metastasize to a larger Paramount question? They're negotiating right now to bring back the south park guys. And south park, you know, they've had. This is. South Park's dispute is over money. They have been fighting with the new regime because the Skydance people have to approve the Paramount deal. And my understanding is that they are working towards a settlement. But do those guys go nuclear on them? I don't think they will because they like making the show and literally it's. They're going to make billions of dollars in their next deal. But others could feel differently. There's a whole.

[Bill Simmons]

But I disagree, though, because I think they're in the same spot as Jon Stewart. Those guys have made a fucking crazy amount of money already. And I don't know. The point of that show is they stand up to shit like this.

[Nate Tice]

That's true. They could still do it and not quit. I'm saying, do they quit? I don't think the south park guys.

[Bill Simmons]

Quit or just do it for somebody else.

[Nate Tice]

Well, they can't do south park for anyone else.

[Bill Simmons]

No, but they could create a fair amount owned property.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah, they could do that. They got a Kendrick movie coming out next year. They could do other things, but they have shown over almost 30 years. They really like doing south park. And. And I think that they will fuck around with the owners, but I don't think they will quit.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, this is unprecedented territory.

[Nate Tice]

It really is.

[Bill Simmons]

Where we have a show get canceled and people's first reaction is, did the President make this happen?

[Nate Tice]

I know. It's so crazy. It is. Guess who owns the network that has the number one show in late night? Fox. Rupert Murdoch, who Trump sued on Friday because Murdoch owns the Wall Street Journal and they did the Jeffrey Epstein, Donald Trump story. And Murdoch has been a. An ally of sorts. He gets into his spats with Trump every once in a while. But Fox is owned by the Murdochs and now they're in litigation with the President. It's so crazy.

[Bill Simmons]

I think this has a chance to be the weirdest Hollywood year ever.

[Nate Tice]

Oh, really?

[Bill Simmons]

We have five and a half months left, and I just feel like we're headed toward, like, this was the first salvo. I just feel like there's more coming. Movies with. In some ways, the movie business is back. Right.

[Nate Tice]

Maybe a Little bit. Sure.

[Bill Simmons]

I'll give you that imax. And you know that like, there's been some positive momentum. And then on the other hand, like, I don't know what's going to happen with the award season, the TV season. Like, who the fuck knows? Are there even going to be a network show that anyone cares about anymore?

[Nate Tice]

Certainly not ucla. That's not happening. Will the Office spin off? Work the paper.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. And then also, like, that's going to peacock. But all these other non Netflix streamers are now starting to really cut back on the content they're making. And this is going to be the first time I think people are going to feel a real void. Like just not. It's not going to be this T shirt cannon shooting out shows, everybody now. It's going to be. You have these, like, I just watched the Netflix, the Missing lady show on the yacht.

[Nate Tice]

Which one was the missing lady of the week on Netflix?

[Bill Simmons]

Missing lady on the yacht, whatever that one was called. I watched all three episodes.

[Nate Tice]

Did you watch TV now?

[Bill Simmons]

Of course. I watch Poop Cruise. What are you talking to?

[Nate Tice]

It was number one on one of the charts one week. Yeah. I mean, the number one franchise on Netflix right now is called Trainwreck. And it's an unscripted documentary franchise about things that happened in the 2000s and 2000s that made cable news headlines but Gen Z didn't know about and millennials kind of forgot about. That's basically franchise.

[Bill Simmons]

It's like, wait, what's this? Bubble Boy? And now my daughter's watching that, going, dad, what's up with Bubble Boy?

[Nate Tice]

Right, Exactly. The fall of Brett Favre. What happened there?

[Bill Simmons]

Right. Well, and then you have like shows like Amazon, Summer I Turn Pretty, Season 3. My daughter is like approaching it like it's a Super Bowl.

[Nate Tice]

I know.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. It's just TVs. I think what's really changed the most is that the monoculture of a TV show I think is just. I don't even know like what my daughter's generation shows that they're going to share other than Stranger Things Wednesday. Yeah, it's. But it's like less than 10.

[Nate Tice]

I know. And Stranger Things, check me on the number. But I believe when it ends at the end of this year, Strange Stranger Things will have made and aired like 60 something episodes over 10 years. It just takes so long to make these shows now that there's no such thing as like, oh, it's September, we're back in school. Let's check out the new season of the Cosby Show. Like, there's 22 of these coming. It's just not the same anymore.

[Bill Simmons]

I was on a text thread with some friends who were my age. There was this thing that was online. It was the entire Nielsen ratings of the 76, 77 TV season. It was like 100 shows, and it was like, 1 to 100. It was like Laverne and Shirley, Happy Days. And we were on the thread, and I was like, I don't understand how I watched 70 of these hundred shows as they were happening. I'm just going down the line. Like, I definitely watched that. I watched that when I was an only child. I guess I had a little.

[Nate Tice]

And you were clearly watching playoffs, watching sports and movies, too.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, yeah. And maybe I didn't watch all of them, but I felt like I did. And anecdotally, I felt like I knew at least what was going on a little bit. And now it's like, are there shows like that now? They're just.

[Nate Tice]

Well, if you look at the number, the top 100 shows from last year, like, 90 of them are football games.

[Bill Simmons]

I know. Well, what Was interesting about 76, 77? What number do you think Monday Night Football was in the ratings?

[Nate Tice]

Oh, fascinating. Clearly not top 20, because you would have mentioned it.

[Bill Simmons]

It was. It was 20th.

[Nate Tice]

It was 20th. Okay, so it was still big.

[Bill Simmons]

Still big, but not like Happy Days big.

[Nate Tice]

That's true. And still they didn't figure out that if they did that three nights a week, people would also watch three nights a week of football.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, now, in addition to Sunday. Yeah. Well, that's the only thing that in the end, it's just going to be sports that survives.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah. I mean, and that sports is now so expensive that these companies can't really afford much else. CBS is a perfect example. Like, they are looking at this renegotiation that the NFL can do after they change control, because they have a right to. They're going to, of course, do it. They're going to extract. Extract. Extract. That's why I think it wouldn't be surprising to me if the NFL, like, got a night of television on CBS or an hour, twice a week to do highlights during the season or, you know, some propaganda show about how great the NFL is in your community. Like, something they'll get something out of CBS and they'll be able to take some games away, probably to sell them to Netflix.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, the prices of a. Like when ESPN sold off some of their college football playoff games, I couldn't believe that. I mean, we're about to Find out what happens with ufc. And I think Netflix is going to get the UFC numbered pay per views.

[Nate Tice]

Dana White said this past week that he's looking forward to being in business with a global platform.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Nate Tice]

So what does that mean?

[Bill Simmons]

Well, so it's. It's two deals, it's the numbered pay per views, and then it's kind of the rest of it. And, you know, if it's going to Amazon or Netflix or whoever, it's going to be the numbered ones.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah. I'm guessing he doesn't mean Apple, even though they technically are a global platform. But I'm betting it's Amazon or Netflix. It's got to be one of those Apple's back. Oh, you think so?

[Bill Simmons]

F1. They're rejuvenated.

[Nate Tice]

They're going to be back. I like it back, baby, but. But it doesn't bother you that that movie is probably not going to be profitable in theaters?

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, but that goes back to our accounting thing that we talked about before.

[Nate Tice]

I know it could be.

[Bill Simmons]

They'll probably say it was super profitable. And the an.

[Nate Tice]

They will say it has tremendous value on the service and. Great. We'll see if it pops up on the Nielsen chart. I bet it will because it's got a lot of attention. You know, they said that about Killers of the Flower Moon, which definitely lost money in theaters, but they got a ton of Oscar nominations. Tim Cook got to tweet about Leo DiCaprio and Martin Scorsese, and it was a sort of brand halo for Apple. And if that's why they're in the entertainment business, then God bless them, because so far, at least, it's certainly not to make money.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, that is true, I will say, and I've been critical about some of the Apple shows for the last couple years, but I do feel like they. I have a better sense of what an Apple show is now, even, than when we talked about it on your pod, you know, six months ago. There is some sort of a blueprint now with, like, the one big star and some sort of angle.

[Nate Tice]

They are the Starfucker Network.

[Bill Simmons]

Somebody in the picture. Yeah, it's the Star Fucker Network.

[Nate Tice]

It's like if Tim Cook doesn't know who the person is, they can't do a show.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. Like, if they could put Jon Hamm with, like, kind of a torn suit on and, like, a fancy house behind him, they don't even need to know what the show's about.

[Nate Tice]

Yes. And they had hits this past year, at least a couple. Severance was a big hit for them like it was on the charts, which the Apple shows never are, except for Ted Lasso.

[Bill Simmons]

I can only tell you I look at everything selfishly from a ringer perspective and what we can do. Prestige tv, podcasts and the Watch and can you just give us shows that we could talk about? Apple was in the mix this year for us. Like, we had really? From Presumed Innocent last year and several.

[Nate Tice]

I thought that was good.

[Bill Simmons]

Your friends and neighbors, like, they had some stuff that was like, all right, we can.

[Nate Tice]

Although you were not on board with the studio, you're not on board with their 23 Emmy nominations.

[Bill Simmons]

No, I. Well, you didn't get one, though.

[Nate Tice]

I did not get one. Please don't bring that up, by the way.

[Bill Simmons]

It's unfair that you said I was not on board. I watched every studio. I listened to the episode of every episode. We did an episode of the first three episodes.

[Nate Tice]

All right.

[Bill Simmons]

I watched all of them. I actually thought the last couple episodes were really good. I thought it was a really uneven show. I really respected it. I watched every minute of it. And my problem with it ultimately was I didn't know who I was supposed to be rooting for, which might have been the answer. Maybe nobody.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Seth Rogen's character. It's like, I just didn't like the character, and I was supposed to be rooting for him.

[Nate Tice]

They lean heavily on the fact that Seth himself is so likable that he can do some dumb and kind of despicable things, and you're still supposed to like him. I happen to think Seth is great, and I do like him, even in a role like that. But I hear your criticism.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. I just felt like that could have tilted him more. Did you get a lot of recognition from that? What happened? I mean, I want to know, did your life change?

[Nate Tice]

The. No. My life? Are you kidding? Other than people texting me. No, my life. And although I do get recognized, like.

[Bill Simmons]

At a Dodgers game. You went to a Dodgers game today where people just pointing at you like, hey, that's the guy from the studio.

[Nate Tice]

Are you kidding me? Not at the Dodgers game. At, like, Sundance or at, like, the Polo lounge on a Friday afternoon. Yes, everybody knows, but people know me from the town now, too, and for my newsletter, so it doesn't.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I know you because you work with Craig Horlbeck. They're like, hey, that's the guy who works with Craig.

[Nate Tice]

I bring Craig to movie premieres. Nobody wants to talk to me. They all want to talk to him.

[Bill Simmons]

He's a handsome guy.

[Nate Tice]

He's much more personable to me. He knows a lot about fantasy football, which I do not. And he's got very deep movie knowledge from the Rewatchables. He's the only 30 year old that can quote Risky Business.

[Bill Simmons]

I know we're indoctrinating him in the 80s and 90s, including species this week.

[Nate Tice]

Michael Matthew oh, he texted me about Species. He's like, I can't believe this movie existed.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, that's his reaction a lot of the time.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah, it's like, what were they thinking?

[Bill Simmons]

Matt Bellany, pleasure to see you as always. We can read you on the Puck on Puck News and we can listen to you on the Town, an awesome.

[Nate Tice]

Podcast produced by Craig Orbeck and theringer.com.

[Bill Simmons]

And theringer.com Ah, good to see you. This episode is brought to you by Netflix's Happy Giltmore 2. We're back. 30 years ago he decided to give golf a try. Now he's ready for the happiest comeback of all time. Adam Sandler's beloved golf legend returns to the green for another swing at glory. Just remember, it's all in the hips. Also starring Ben Stiller. I like him. Julie Bowen like her and Benito. Antonio Martinez Ocasio. Happy Gilmore 2 only on Netflix July 25 this message is a paid partnership with Apple Card. There's one thing I'm going to make sure I pack for my summer vacation. It's my Apple Card. I can earn up to 3% daily cash back on every purchase, including fuel for my car and booking places to stay. Plus, I don't have to worry about fees, including foreign transaction fees, which is perfect when I'm planning to travel abroad. To get an Apple Card for your summer travels, apply on the Wallet app on your iPhone today. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch. Variable APRs for Apple Card range from 18.24% to 28.49% based on creditworthiness rates as of January 1, 2025 terms and [e-mail] all right, Nate Tice is here. We're recording on a Sunday. He's a second time new dad. He works for Yahoo. You can listen to his podcast and read him there. He's been on this pod a few times. First of all, how much sleep are you getting? Are you prepared for NFL when you don't sleep?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, no, I'm okay. Actually like the old background of coaching and scouting kind of helped me prep for this of like surviving on two to four hours and A lot of coffee, but no, we're good. We got a good rhythm. My wife is a champ. That's what I'm leaving it at. She's been an absolute champ. I've had a nice break.

[Bill Simmons]

They do, they do 95% of the work. Yeah. So I got into NFL. I have the same process every year in the last like 10, 11 days. Dove in, did my process, had a good time actually doing it. Some things jumped out to me and where I wanted to land to talk to you. I'm not ready to have any full scale opinions yet, but the jump A level teams, I want to start there because that's a good way to think about the season as a whole. Each conference, who's going to move up from one level to another. I don't want to go negative. We'll go positive because it's sunny out here in Southern California, Good times, you know, not a lot of stress. But there's three different types of teams that jump a level. We have the playoff team to legit contender, the blah team to playoff team, and the out of nowhere team, which is just, they're just staples now. Now we don't bat an eyelash when somebody like the Broncos or the Commanders or the Chargers, when they just jump five, six wins. This is just what happens. Which group is the hardest group for you to figure out?

[Matt Bellany]

Out of those three groups, I actually would say the playoff team to legit contender because I think that's the hardest crap, you know, hardest tier to break into. You know, kind of a legit final four team. You know, that it can make that any single year, can withstand some injuries, has a dude at quarterback or at least an offense that can roll that way, has a run game, has a defense and like not a lot of teams have. Can check all those boxes. You know, we saw what the Eagles did. The Chiefs are kind of their own thing. They're the mid-90s Houston Rockets. They're kind of just always, they're always their own thing, so. But like every other team, all the mortal teams, like this is what you need to have. And it's just really hard to check all those boxes of truly having a run game, truly having an explosive passing game and vice versa on defense, being able to stop those things on defense. So that's the hardest one to break into because it's just, it's just hard. It's just really hard to build that legit team.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, you're talking this little crack between the two tiers. So last year the Lions were the team that made the jump and that was the team I went all in on last year, picked them to win the Super Bowl. That did not happen. But, you know, they laid the groundwork the previous year. They had a really good playoff loss, if you can have a good playoff loss, good foundation. They kept their two coordinators and it just felt like everything was lined up and you could really see it. I had a little more trouble coming up with the team this year, but I had four candidates and I'm going to take the next few weeks to figure it out. But the four candidates I sent you, and I'll give you the conference odds on FanDuel for each of these, but the Rams were at plus 850. Had a really nice, as we look back, a really nice loss to the Eagles. Right. Kind of had the Eagles even at the tail end. They're in the 15th round, just throwing haymakers with the rock and pitch.

[Matt Bellany]

Jalen Carter plays away. 2 Jalen Carter plays away. That's what it was. But yeah, they were very close to getting them.

[Bill Simmons]

So there's one.

[Matt Bellany]

Yep.

[Bill Simmons]

Tampa 13 to 1 with some wide receiver injuries last year and just were just frisky the whole time. And they're bringing all 11 starters back on offense. Worfs is going to be out for a couple of weeks, but so that's team number two, the Texans. I just have to put in at 12 to 1 and win the conference just because of how good the defense was in the playoffs specifically. And you think like they kind of had the year from hell in a bunch of different ways with some receiver injuries. And, you know, they did trade Tunsil. I'm not crazy about their offensive line, but that's another one. Then the fourth one is the one that surprised me that I included in here is the Broncos at 13 to 1, made the playoffs. Felt like they overachieved just to make the playoffs. Had all the makings of, oh, we'll get to this year and they'll take the dip back. There's some reasons why that might not happen. The one team I don't have in here is Washington because I think they were officially a contender. They made the title game. You can't. You can't put them in there. All right, so Rams, Bucks, Broncos, Texans. Which one did you get the most excited about?

[Matt Bellany]

Rams. And it's just because they have. You know why? Maybe you get excited about the Texans. The Rams, kind of a version of this where they have the great equalizer in a playoff game that's a pass rush and they have a dude at quarterback and they have, you know, Alaric Jackson, their left tackle is going to be out with blood clots. And I know you know about players on your team having blood clots and what they can do to a season. So like. But that's, that's this one wrinkle and kind of like the theory of the Rams this year. But devonte Adams still has plenty left in the tank. Like he is still a difference maker. But the thing is I think Pukinakua is not getting kind of the credit of what he actually is. I think some people think he's a beneficiary of the offense. Like no kidding. That's every. Every top receiver is a beneficiary of the offense, but he's a legit top five receiver in this game. He's an actual elite guy. Now Devonte Adams is like a 2A, you know, in this offense and you know, Cooper cup is no longer there. Cooper cup has really fallen off and is really is not the difference maker. He's become a kind of very isolated type of player and how they have to use them. But they drafted Terence Ferguson and that's a. He's a tight end from Oregon, really athletic. They're going to use more tight ends. This is where I'm envisioning this offense. I think it's going to be just a better version of what we've seen the last couple of years when this offense has been healthy. I know that's an if. It's a big if. They have been supernova, like not. Not just like oh, a top offense, like one of the better offenses we've seen in the last 20 years level of good. And we saw it last year. Remember the Vikings game. I think it was a Thursday night game. When they found Pukinakua comes back, they just go crazy. That's this what this team could be. So it's a fine line. That's why the odds are what they are. But man, they have a pass rush. The defense is more funky than outright good, but the pass rush is good. And so that's why I think they have a really, you know, they actually have a snowballs chance in hell to win this. This not just division with that's really, really tough division, the NFC west, but the conference as well. So pass rush, passing game or run game, that's a really good team.

[Bill Simmons]

Is it a tough division? That's one of the things I'm staring at with the research. I keep hearing how tough the NFC west is and I'm Staring at it going, eh, it.

[Matt Bellany]

It's really frisk. It's a lot of good units. Like, there's a lot of good defenses. There's a lot of good run games. Like, it's a lot to prepare for. I don't think any of them are elite, but there's. It's a lot of good. Like I think any four of those teams are playoff teams because I'm going to get to another one in a little bit, but maybe that's why I'm angling this way.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay, I got you.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

So Puka, I think he's for. For your. For the smart guy NFL people. He's. He's like just the. Studying him on a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. The blocking, all the kind of football player stuff he does. He's whatever that weird team is. It's like the all NBA for the NFL super nerd team. He's just. He's in there. He's like Catnip Adams. I'm really intrigued by. With the. Just being in a good situation again. I just, I thought Rodgers was terrible last year. I thought their offense was terrible, the coaching was terrible. Then you go back to Vegas where he was in that Netflix show famously just, you know, almost seemed like he didn't want to get killed. He hasn't been in a good situation really since probably the second to last Green Bay situation. And now he's a number two. And if that. If they hit with that tight end, everybody's already trying to pump him up as a fantasy asset. But that was the team that jumped out to me too in the nfc. I do think there's a Bucs case and I want to study more about how long Worfs is going to be out, but I don't know. That's just a team that has an identity. I know what they are and they have one of the best four lines in the league offense. So we know they can block. We know they're going to be able to move the ball. We know they're going to be able to score. I like the division they're in. Schedule is going to be a little harder this year, but that's. I think it's probably one of those two teams, right? Is there any other team? I guess no other team even really qualifies.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, the. I mean the other. This is kind of cheating. It feels like because of the record last year is if JJ McCarthy is just okay or better. The Vikings did a lot of nice things this offseason to kind of maybe shore up their volatility and I just. The offensive line and the defensive line, you know, getting Hargrave, getting Hargrave and Jonathan Allen and they're just some real beef. So it's just they don't have to be as funky, you know, on the defense. They actually have some guys that can just win as well and they have some other players that are really good and just the offense too. I think this offensive line line, they went and got Mason from San Fran, you know, Aaron Jones is still there, but now they have a one, two punch. And because they have Justin Jefferson, they get a lot of like unique looks. Devonte Adams got these looks too, actually, which is why I think this Rams parent's going to be awesome. But they get so many soft boxes that they can just pound away at them, get 5, 6 yards a pop like it just like, like it's nothing. And so now they finally have built a line and they got Jordan Mason to be the hammer with Aaron Jones and now they got a guy that can just really pound away four or five, six yards. So the Vikings, I'm just keeping my eye on because I really. It's just McCarthy has to just be okay, 18th quarterback or better in this. And this team can, you know, there's an angle here, there's a line here that they can really make it.

[Bill Simmons]

I hate them from a future standpoint because there's no way to be right or wrong. Who the fuck knows with McCarthy? He's coming off a major knee injury. He's never started an NFL game before, and everything hinges on whether he's good or not. And it could go any direction. And any, Anyone who says, like, I know how this is going to play out, like, there's no way to know.

[Matt Bellany]

It's. It's 14 to 1 for a reason. I will, I will say that. So to win the FC championship. Yeah, it's. It's 14 to 1 for a reason.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, and they won 14 games last year before everything fell apart. In the span of eight days we went from thinking, could this team actually win the Super Bowl To Austin? Sam Donald's on his way to Seattle. Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

So that team broke my brain. And then we go to the, the, the other side with the Broncos and the Texans. I don't, I personally don't think the Texans O line.

[Matt Bellany]

No.

[Bill Simmons]

If you're in the bottom five or six with O, with your O line and there's really. You can rank them any way you want. But I don't see how. I don't see a scenario where they're not in the bottom, bottom crew. And that part worries me. And the bigger thing, and I'm sure we'll be talking about this over the next six weeks, is what do we have with CJ Stroud? Because it feels like we overreacted year round. One, I don't want to also overreact to year two, but he, you know, he took a major step back last year for most of the year, and I don't know what I'm getting from him.

[Matt Bellany]

No, I was Stroud. No, I get it. He started actually developing a couple bad habits because of this old line. But I still really trust him because the new oc, the new coordinator is going to give him a little bit more say in the offense. The old offensive system, the. What Slowik Bobby Slow came from is the Shanahan offense, which doesn't really let the quarterbacks kind of drive the wheel. You know, they. They really kind of, you know, puts a lot of bumpers on the offense. They put a lot on the center and the offensive system to work. Stroud is very smart, like and really cerebral. So I'm, I'm curious how this is going to look, but what you say is about the offensive line is why I'm worried too is just because it's different doesn't mean it's better. I know they had some like, bad vibes, but last year the guys they added. So they added Kenny on. Oh, no, they got rid of Kenny on Green, but then they got Ed Ingram and Lincoln Tomlinson. So Kenyon Green allowed the third highest pressure rate among guards last year among starting guards, Ed Ingram was first and Lincoln Tomlinson was fourth. So, you know, yeah, it's different, but it's, you know, is it really going to be any better? Because that's what you added. It's going to be a little bit better because of the vibes. But again, I don't think the run game is going to be trustworthy. But I am. I do like Stroud a lot. Their division, that division's so wonky. The AFC South. And again, they have the. I think the defense is going to be really, really good because of the pass rush. They have decent linebackers and I think their DB room's really good. They got Derek Stingley, other guys too. Yeah. Secondary is going to be really good. So if they're again, if healthy, but I think the offensive line is still going to be weakness even if they have a lot of different names and faces out there.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. The case for them is the defense they threw in the playoff Game, you know, and the pass rush and like there's a. Yeah, pass rush, secondary. All right, I can see something there. And they, you know, they fixed the receiver room.

[Matt Bellany]

But then it's. You just gotta think the conference they're in, the NFC is so much easier to find value. I think betting wise, as we're talking about that, because it's way more wide open. The AFC is like, you got, you know who you got. You got the demons at the end. You know, you got Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, shoot. Even the middle tier teams. Justin Herbert, all these guys, Joe Burrow. So it's like that's. The AFC is just so much tougher at the top. They already have the contender guys, you know, that's more the middle ground. That's interesting. While the nfc, it's like, whoa, I think it can go any which way.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I did my, I did my first stab at my player rankings because it really helped me last year where it did do all that. And the, the AFC south was just the worst of all the divisions from, from just the standpoint of talent. And I was surprised. I didn't think they would be coming in last. But offensive lines, Houston, Cincinnati, the Giants, Seattle, Jacksonville, and then maybe New England. Although I think if Will Campbell's good, the New England's line might actually be okay, so that he's kind of the swing, but that those are probably the five worst, plus New England if Campbell doesn't make it. So the other team there in the afc, the Broncos, I was prepared to write them off and they weren't going to have enough firepower. Harder schedule this year. AFC west is going to be. I don't know. The Broncos might be good. I find myself leaning toward them as maybe that's a playoff team that can actually make a leap up and be like, whoa, the Bron. Like they kind of subtly fix some of the issues they had with the weapons standpoint. They have to hit on both their rookies, but they have a top four line, Their defense is good. They spent some money on the defense, and they have one of the best five coaches in the league. So I think the case for them would be the Chiefs fall backwards, the Chargers fall back a little bit because their schedule is going to be harder. And then Vegas is Vegas and maybe they can climb up. There's no chance the Broncos can win that division. Right. For you, you just have the Chiefs penciled in forever.

[Matt Bellany]

Put it this way, I think the Broncos are alive to win it, but I do think the Chiefs are better this year in the weirdest way. So I do think it's still the Chiefs division for the Chiefs being better.

[Bill Simmons]

Let me hear it.

[Matt Bellany]

I actually am high on the offensive line. They added both guys, so yeah, there's. I think there's going to be some up and downness, but this is a quarterback used to that up and downness. I also just think some of the defensive guys that they had, I think that's going to make more sense if they're healthy on the back end. I keep saying if they're healthy, but this is true in the NFL. This is how you have to look at these things. But I do think that they still have the dude at quarterback and I think Rasheed Rice coming back and now. No, I mean suspension pending. But I do think that he is a lot better than people are giving him credit for. And what's going to add to the explosiveness of the offense? I think maybe Travis Kelsey kind of knows his role now too. Kelsey was interesting last year because he's definitely dropped off as a receiver, but it was probably his best blocking year ever because he was kind of. Yeah, he, like, he's never been a into blocking. He knows how he gets paid and why, you know, why. He's very famous. But last year he kind of knew his role. Like, it was kind of interesting being like Robin Lopez almost, but he's just scrapping, setting screens, you know, getting offensive boards. But no, that it's. I, I have more faith in the Chiefs this year than I did last year in the weirdest way. And maybe it's just because I'm being lazy mentally, but I do think the Broncos are a better team. I think this defense could be the best defense in the NFL. And I think the Broncos added some juice with the skill players that I really liked. Like, I've really come around on Pat Bryant, their third round pick. It was a little high, but I do like the pick. And then RJ Harvey is going to add just a little bit juice in the, in the running back room. That's what their running backs were just bad last year. And the O line is a top 5o line. That's. That's how you win a playoff game. Like, I could see the Broncos being a playoff team, easy like, but I don't know if I still think it's the Chiefs to lose.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, you know what's funny about what you said with the Chiefs, by the way, The Chiefs are minus 110 on FanDuel for the division Chargers plus 280. The Broncos are plus 330, which I think is too high. I think that should be a little closer. But the funny thing with the Chiefs, I agreed with what you said. I also feel like the case for them, at least from a talent standpoint is they should probably be better because it's weird. Last year was the year from hell for them in some ways. Right. But then they were 11 and oh in one square games. So it's like year from hell. But then also this crazy luck over and over again for the first three fourths of the season. You feel like even if the one score luck balance is out, the health luck is going to flip it the other way. That division is going to be a bitch though. Like he like Vegas was a walkover last year and Vegas is not going to be a walkover though. They're going to actually be hard to play.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, Vegas can be so funky. They're the ultimate knuckleball team. Like it just Geno Smith is a legit quarterback and then they have Chip Kelly who's going to just. I'm very excited for Chip Kelly back in the NFL and as an oc, not as an NFL. So he can just sit in his lab and do what he wants to do. I think it's going to be one of those. And their defense is interesting too. You know it's not. They lack a little bit of firepower along their lines but they still have dudes. You know they, they. Max Crosby is a dude. Christian Wilkins, if he's healthy is a dude. And of course they got Genti the running back so. And Brock Bowers on offense. So there's. I look at them as like a seven win team. That's going to just be really annoying because of what they do on offensive defense. Definitely like a, what do you, what do you call it a league pass team there. That's what, that's what the Raiders are kind of for me they're a league.

[Bill Simmons]

Pass team and they're also a. Do not throw them the team they're playing in a three team tease or some sort of big parlay because yeah, the Raiders are plus nine and a half and somehow just beating somebody outright. They're a. Stay away from me. I think out of those four teams, Rams, Bucks, Broncos, Texans. I think now it's July 20, it could change, right? We have, we still have. The training camps are going to start. There's going to be all this stuff we learn from all the media pieces and all the coverage and the day to day stuff and like there's so Many variables. Like Ted McMillan might come in to Carolina and just be. People are just going to be like, I'm blown away every day this guy does something like, it could be one of those situations. Like, all right, now I have to revise this Carolina thing. If this guy's going to be Mike Evans right away, I don't know if that's going to happen. But we have. Or Hampton on the Chargers, like the season, the preseason might start and everybody might be like, this guy's incredible. Or the guy you mentioned on the Broncos, Harvey.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

What if he's just awesome, you know? And we went from like, as you said, the bottom five running back crew in the, in the NFL to all of a sudden they have this dude pace for 1400 yards. So we don't know yet, but these are just kind of the leans, I think. I think those are fair.

[Matt Bellany]

And this year, too, just this, this class, there's a lot of what players consider were more good than elite, you know, a lot more green chip guys than blue chip guys.

[Bill Simmons]

Right.

[Matt Bellany]

And that's the thing is when you get a lot of that, there's a lot of variance, though. There's a lot of guys that could rise a lot higher. Like, the team was right. And taking this guy. So that's where I think there's just a lot more surprises when you get that, like, okay, this is, you know, it's kind of just an interesting class. And especially the positions, you know, there's a lot of running backs that can make an impact. Caleb Johnson with the Steelers going to. It was just the whole time, it was. He has to go to his own team. He has to go to his own team. He has. And then he goes to the Steelers, who only run zone. And it was like, okay, well, this could work like even, even whoever's playing at quarterback. But it's like there, there's at least a path there to okay this guy actually in this offensive system, because they have a, they have an interesting offensive line too, that they can sneak up on teams they can beat some of these bad teams that just can't stop the run. And I know that sounds just so simplistic, but that's what the, that's what football is. It's like if a team can run 5 yards at a time, they're not going to recall anything else. They don't need their new quarterback to do anything.

[Bill Simmons]

Do you feel like there's any meat left on the bone, Knicks bone or did. What we see last year is basically what it is.

[Matt Bellany]

Everything's going to come down to what you can do on third down. But this is kind of how I pictured him like a lot of. He has some creativity to him. He's a great athlete and he's got an absolute rocket of an army. It's. Sometimes he technically will be accurate because he throws underneath a lot. And Sean Payton did a hell of a job to kind of figure out the offense with him. But that's. That's the thing is he built it for his rookie quarterback. Can he make the leap? Usually we'll see a lot. I all depends on third down. I don't think there's a lot more because he's older and this is just how we play in college too. You know, a cheetah doesn't change its spots. Kind of thing like this is the type of player he'll be. But it's good enough to start. It's good enough to win a playoff game, I think because of just how they built this offense. So. But I don't think there's as much meat as maybe the other guys of his class. And I think that was kind of the expectation when they drafted him, too.

[Bill Simmons]

We're taking a break and then we got to race through the rest of these because I really want to clear the floor for you for Timberwolf Summer league combo, but we're taking one break. All right, next category is the blah team. To the playoff team, I would describe blah, blah. You're like 7 and 10. You're 8 and 9. Couple things happen. Nothing memorable. Maybe you had a bad injury or in the Bengals case, you had just had crazy bad luck in close games. In Miami's case, maybe your quarterback seemed like he should have to retire from football and then he didn't. In Lana's case, maybe you spent a ton of money on a guy who turned out he was a corpse and then you had to bring in the next guy. In the Niners case, maybe every single thing that could have possibly gone wrong went wrong. So our nominees. So last year was the 24 Vikings, who they were fine. Nobody really had any high expectations for them. Then boom, they're 14 and three. The year before it was the 23 Lions and the Browns made big jumps. So our nominees this year, from this weird range, the Bengals 9 and 8 last year, Colts 8 and 9, Miami 6 and 11. That's AFC. So let's do AFC first. Bengals, Colts, Miami. Who intrigues you?

[Matt Bellany]

Bengals. Just because the offense. But that's that of that group. That's not like I'm not like really excited. I'm not as I think this is what the Bengals are. They're in this range. Like they are a nine win team. Maybe you can get to 10 because just there's so much just. I mean they haven't signed their first round pick still. They're just the defense I still don't trust. I respect that the defense is terrible.

[Bill Simmons]

Why would you trust it?

[Matt Bellany]

And look at the division they're in and the conference they're in again. It's just that it's hell in the AFC if you don't have at least a viable side, at least a top half side on both sides, you know, offense and defense. So it's based on how many points they can score, you know. And I do respect the offensive vision. I've actually really have liked Zach Taylor's slash.

[Bill Simmons]

Joe Burrow.

[Matt Bellany]

I'm sure he has a lot of input. Like the changes they make year to year. Like I really do think everything the defenses throw at them, they always find new little wrinkles. Even if it's a, you know, maybe not the most varied offense. Like the closest comparison is the Colts and the odds with Peyton Manning, like where he. It was just like they ran their seven plays. You gotta stop them. And that's kind of the level they're at right now. But it's a lot like those Colts teams of the odds. What was their defense like? You know, it was just based. Their. How good they are is based on how good their defense was. But I don't. It's just. That's such a tough division and conference that it's hard to say that they can be anything more. It's more. Other teams have to drop around them, if that makes sense.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't get the Bengals case.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Now it's July 20th. I might change my mind. But I just look at. They're. They're the. They're the guy in Fantasy who spends $170 on three guys and then tries to fill out the rest of the roster with the $1 guys.

[Matt Bellany]

That's exactly what they are.

[Bill Simmons]

And he actually after. After Atheist, like I have Chase and, and Higgins and Burrow and you're like, cool. You're. You've no running backs.

[Matt Bellany]

It's a lot like the Saints with Breeze for a while and remember them in the 2010s. He's throwing 5,000 yards but they're winning six games. You know that it's. It's a lot like that. They're just a weirdly shaped team because they didn't hit on defense like they needed to.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, the combo of overpaying. Well, they didn't overpay. They properly paid their three guys, but they paid them, like, discount team. Yeah, they paid Chase and Burrow, like, top five guys. They got a slight discount on Higgins, but he's still making a lot of money. But they're also a cheap franchise. And so, like, when the, like the Chiefs today, before we started recording, they signed Carlaftis for, like, a $90 million extension. It's like. And I've made this joke over and over again. I'm going to keep making it. I don't understand the NFL salary cap at all. It doesn't seem like this isn't like the second apron where your Timberwolves have to be like, Cannon Ford, Alexander Walker would push us over the second apron. There is no any apron in the NFL. And she's like, yeah, Car Laftis. We'll just keep pushing the money that way. The Bengals don't do that at all.

[Matt Bellany]

Teams are starting to complain about that though, right? They saw what the Eagles are doing. They're like, okay, okay, okay, you guys won your title. Let's, let's, let's stop this. But I don't know. Well, we'll see how that.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, CBA is going to change anytime soon. Yeah, but I look at the Bengals and I'm like, if you're going to. But if you're going to spend big money on three guys, you can't also then be cheap.

[Matt Bellany]

The other teams in that group is just hard. Like, the Dolphins are like, what are the Dolphins? They are such a. They have an awful DB room, awesome front seven. I'll say that on defense, but then on offense, it's like, I can't trust the offensive line, even if I do, like, pieces. They kind of just feel like they're in an identity shift. They keep talking about how tough and physical they're going to be, but it was like, oh, no. You guys want. We're winning with a lot of speed, though. So, like. And then the Colts, it's. I know what Daniel Jones is. Even if I really like what the wrong game is going to be. And I still have a garden on Anthony Richards Richardson island, and actually. And actually maybe like a picket fence on Riley Leonard Island.

[Bill Simmons]

Like, so you own property on Anthony Richardson Island?

[Matt Bellany]

I do. I do like a garden. I just thought there was a chance it could be like, Culpepper. Like, you know, you gotta remember what I, what I saw, what I grew up with. So I Still have a garden. I used to have a house but I sold it.

[Bill Simmons]

Here's the difference though. Culpepper was this big ass dude who was actually pretty durable, at least for the first part of his career.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Then it, then it started.

[Matt Bellany]

Exploded.

[Bill Simmons]

Well then his knee exploded.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

But I mean he would take big hits and get up.

[Matt Bellany]

Richardson, he's really accurate.

[Nate Tice]

It.

[Bill Simmons]

That helps too. But Richardson seems like it takes big hits and stays down.

[Matt Bellany]

There's a. There. Yes. And that's what led to the turmoil last year where. Where his teammates were openly complaining about him. He couldn't do that. That was. That's where I kind of sold. But then he played some games where he kind of like against the jets who are kind of had the white flag. But I said it's a garden, you know. Now you're making me say it's just a flower. Just. Just one plant. Thank you. I appreciate it.

[Bill Simmons]

I think Miami has a chance to be absolutely terrible and I already. It's one of the only future bets I've already made was to bet the adjusted unders on them. I don't see it at all.

[Matt Bellany]

What is it at?

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I think it moved but I did. One of the bets I did when I was in Indiana was I did. I think I did under seven wins for them or under six wins or like whatever. I think it's moved a little bit. I also think McDaniel is in first. Coach Fire territory feels weird right now.

[Matt Bellany]

It's.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it feels like let's see how this goes. I think their division, you know, the Pats are going to be better and the jets might actually be like a whiff frisky. And then you have Buffalo in there. So I don't know.

[Matt Bellany]

Jets are going to be a bad team beater. That's. That's why I call them like they're they. Because they have a run game and they have a defense that's going to be good too. So it's like. And just a mentality. So like they're going to be like a bad. Like you better bring it. Like I can see them. I can see they're gonna be that classic team that wins three at the end of the season.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

And everyone's like, oh, Aaron Glenn's got him coming around as they finished 6 and 11, you know. But he's one of the last three, you know. But a lot of close games. But the jets, the jets run game that aligns pretty. Pretty badass. And they got a little run game with Justin Fields and stuff. So yeah, watch the jets run game this year.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't see them being a, a high points offense, but I see a lot of like 16 to 13, 19 to 12.

[Matt Bellany]

Greg Maddox starts 10 to nine.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, yeah. I don't really like any of those choices either for the afc. And by the way, that's, that's, it's perfect to be like, you know what I don't like Bengals, Colts or Miami in the other division or the other conference. Falcons, Dallas and the niners. Falcons were 8, 9, Dallas 7 and 10, Niners 6 and 11. Pennix to me is a follow up to that JJ McCarthy point I made earlier. I just don't know like, what if he's just not good? We have no idea. There were flashes. You like what you saw?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, he's kind of like Cutler to me, Jay Cutler, where it's. The highs are high and he has a huge arm. But sometimes it's the varsity blue scene where the Cowboys getting knocked off the horse, you know, like that it's just once in a while you don't know where it's going and that's the thing. So I think he's volatile, but I think the wrong game's going to be good and I think that he, he has enough highs that it's going to like, yeah, there's going to be some games where he comes alive, but I think that defense is just going to be bad. I don't think they'll be able to stop the run. So. And they play in a division with the Bucks, the Panthers and the Saints who all like drafted first round linemen and invested in a run game. So yeah, I'm not, I'm staying away from the Falcons even if Pennx is okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Niners, everybody's on. Yeah, it's a ten and a half. They're ten and a half's too high. It's schedule related and it's like injury luck related and I get it, but I just think they lost a lot of dudes and you know, from a receiver standpoint everyone's like, well then IU could be back. And it's like, Willie, when's he coming back? He. He blew out his knee. October. Like we're just throwing him back in. Just running up and down the field for three hours. I'm not buying that yet.

[Matt Bellany]

And it's just a tough. Another. You don't think so? But it's a tough division. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL. That's, that's. And they, I do think they're better because on defense I think that they went about this offseason like how they should have. Not only just getting Robert Salo back in the building, but they became really bad against the run. They leaned into the bit a little too much. They really wanted to be like we're feisty. We get up field on the front like ah, ears pinned back. But you know, they went and signed Javon Hargrave who I complimented for the Vikings. But for the 49ers he just actually wasn't what they needed because he was just to risk reward. And they already have that with Nick Bosa, who's their dude. But it's just kind of like okay, all right. If we don't get them right away and get this tfl, that's a six yard gain and Fred Warner has to clean it up. And I think now but I having said all that like so this the stats and I know EPA is kind of can be a little volatile if you don't have a huge data set. But this is a nice season long. So since 2019 the 49ers against the run EPA per rush 9th 2019, 9th in 2020, 1st in 2021, 2nd in 2022, 2023, 28th, 2024, 28th. They and how they play defense is very, they play quarters. So it's very like I wouldn't say soft, but it's more like hey, we rally to tackle. Like we have really good linebacker Fred Warner, we have feisty safeties and I think what they did was okay. First round pick Mikel Williams, who is going to enter the league as maybe he gets a pass. He's going to be more of a developmental guy but he's like awesome against the run. And so I think they ate, you know, ate their vegetables a little bit this offseason. So I kind of like, I kind of like that on defense to really help them out because that was more of a blemish than I think people realized last year. And I think of course you have Kyle Shanahan which so if guys are healthy like you said with the receivers, like it's easy. I think it's an easy 9 wins, 11 wins. Like the win total is. That's a little, that's a little sketchy to me. You know, I think this is a 9, 10 win team. But definitely approved team Williams 10 to.

[Bill Simmons]

1 on FanDuel for defensive rookie of the year. Okay, that one jumped out at me because he only had Abdul Carter and Jalen Walker ahead of him. Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

And Carter has they have too many dudes on the Giants defense, you know, I mean, so his stats might not be crazy. Like, you know, he might be good. But yeah, no, I'm. I'm high on Mikel Williams. I Even if, you know, he might not be a high sack guy this year, but man, this guy's. I think it'd be a two way against the run in the past. Could be a really good player down the road.

[Bill Simmons]

So I got to look at the Niners more. I want to find out more about IU because I don't. I think they're going to have a lot of trouble throwing the ball. The McCaffrey stuff has already started. He's in the best shape of his life and so we get to do that. Yeah, the dude works out for 12 months. Crazy. Every year it's like, oh, this is the year he's coming in.

[Matt Bellany]

Great. The blood spin, you know, he's getting all that.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't trust it. Is it cool if I don't trust it? I just don't assume he's going to play for four straight months anymore. Yeah, yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

And. And that's what's tough. I trust the run game, if that makes sense. But CMC makes the whole offense like supernova. So it's that if you trust that. But I do think they're obviously going to be better just because they have to be. They're so faced so much bad luck last year. Well, nominees. Yeah. Dallas. Yeah, yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Falcons. I just think we put to the side. Who knows Dallas. There's a pretty interesting case for Dallas which would be fun for me because it really determines cousin Sal's mood on Sunday nights. But you know, they're getting some guys back, some injuries. They had a good draft. Dax back. Coaching change. There's some signs. Coaching change is always good if it's. I know people weren't that fired up about the Brian Schneiderheimer thing, but you know, people weren't fired up about Dan Quinn. Who the F knows. Is there a Cowboys case at all for you? We know they have the quarterback they're going to be able to block. They have. They'll have a pass rush. Their D line. That whole area is among the best in the league. Maybe.

[Matt Bellany]

No, definitely. Maybe. I think they are definitely going to be a winning team now. This NFC is going to be wide open. I think not only the offensive line, they drafted another guy in the first round, Tyler Booker, but so they have some real beef. But then they also. Their offensive coordinator is Clayton Adams and they signed him from the Cardinals he was the offensive line coach with the Cardinals. And I really like this because this is kind of what the Lions kind of. I would say the Lions did outright. But it's like having a full faith OC who's actually the line guy. This is actually what the packers did, maybe a bear. So Schonheimer's the play caller but the OC is technically like the run game coordinator. So I think that was actually just. If you just read between the lines. This is a commitment to what they're going to do. And this is where Dak can really beat Dak is get a control of the game before. He's one of the best before the snap can kind of controlling everything. So you get the strong run game that hey, you're going to play us like this because now they have George Pickens and I Pickens I didn't like for everybody, but I like George Pickens for the Cowboys because he is a great stylistic fit. Oh yeah. I don't think he. I think he's a two like I don't think he's a true number one guy because. Who is a number one guy? CD Lamb. CD is a slot. He's a what I call a power slot. He's. He's best from the slot or best as a Z who is off the ball. It can move around. That's a flanker. George Pickens is a true X. He is on the run.

[Bill Simmons]

The straight line.

[Matt Bellany]

Straight line goes and stop routes. Dak Prescott, for better, for worse, loves throwing stop routes which is a 10 yards or 12 yards and turnaround stop. That's literally what it sounds like. It's kind of an archaic route now because how defenses play. But he likes them if you're accurate and you have a dude that can win. Pickens is amazing at him. It was so I actually think that was great. And this frees up CD Lamb to move all over the formation. So he. He makes sense more to the Cowboys than I thought maybe to other teams. So I really like that fit for a few reasons. On defense they have the dude Micah Parsons. I really liked a sneaky signing. They had Jack Sanborn who's with the Bears and you know they. They got face injury at linebacker and that's maybe they're still a little more iffy against how the run. I think they'll be okay. But they're going to be great against the pass game because they're pass rush. But Sanborn I think will help shore it up until overshone comes back like that. I thought that was a Sneaky, good signing for them that he can end up being a decent linebacker starter, just an okay starter for him. But that's what they need desperately need that right now.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, and they threw away their, they threw away their running back position again, which I don't totally understand.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I, yeah, I didn't like that. I do like the run. It's one of those.

[Nate Tice]

I like.

[Matt Bellany]

It's maybe like how the Broncos were, but I really like the run. The blocking and the run game. But maybe the running backs are going to be frustrating. Guess who's who. They have Javante Williams, who was with the Broncos last year.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I don't love their, you know that when we do these fpi, whatever the hell, the schedule thing. Yeah, I, I don't totally love it because I think teams change so much from year to year. I just look at their first eight weeks. Like they start out there at Philly in the first game of the year. Like that sucks. That's like almost a guaranteed own one. They have Giants at home at Chicago week three. Like what if Chicago is pretty good? Home Packers Week 4 at jets at Panthers and then they're at Broncos week eight. So it's like you look at that and you go can you get to four and can you be four and four coming out of that? Could you get to five and three or is it probably looking like a three and five? So it's going to be somewhere in there and that's going to determine how they go.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, no, absolutely. Oh man, that is a tough slate.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I don't like it. It's one of those where you look at it and go, ah, yeah, I don't really like any of these games.

[Matt Bellany]

And even matchup wise it's not exactly ideal. It's like those are teams that can.

[Bill Simmons]

Well plus you said Oberstown. When does he come back?

[Matt Bellany]

I have no idea.

[Bill Simmons]

He might be like second half of the season.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, let's do. We'll make this quick. The the out of nowhere teams which have become more and more of a lock. This we had the Broncos Chargers in Washington. This is one of the reasons I did so well last year is I nailed these last year which makes me almost, I'm almost coming to grips that I'm going to get killed this year because I did too well last year. But I sent you all the playoff odds, all the teams give me three that jump out to you as a possible out of nowhere leap.

[Matt Bellany]

Again. I lean towards the NFC and there was nice stat I got from NFL Research this week it was. I think we were at 35 straight years. So since 1990 that four teams that didn't make the playoffs made the playoffs next year at 35 straight years.

[Bill Simmons]

So I always, I always thought, I always tried to do three in each conference. Last year there are only four total that flipped. Usually it's six.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay.

[Bill Simmons]

And you usually try. Have to just try to figure out the six.

[Matt Bellany]

The math. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

That's why I just keep looking at the nfc because I just think it's so up and down based on the quarterbacks. You've already talked about some of the young guys and just, it's like, you know, the packers could be a good team. But like I look at the Cardinals as the first team that comes to mind like for this exercise because not only just because I like their offense, but I really, really, really intrigued by their defense. They face the fifth easiest schedule again. We know how that can change and everything. I think the offense, I know what it is. I don't think it can maybe get to that top five, but I think this could be a top 12, top 10 unit with a good run game, explosive offense. The big thing for me is I don't know who can take the top off. So it might maybe feel a little tight. They got to expand Marvin Harrison Jr. S role, so. But I trust the offense in the weirdest way and I. Even if Kyler Murray can be up and down, he was, he was better last year. That was one of his most. That was his most consistent season ever. So if they can just even get that. But the defense, this defense last year was the 10th best defense in the EPA or the second half of the season coincided with a lot of guys coming back from injury. They had, they lost. They had the fourth most Justin Gabes loss according to what's now FTN fantasy, which used to be football outsiders, outsiders, guys, but those guys. But they were 10th in the second half of the season. They. They had the sixth highest pressure rate in the second half of the season. They got Baron Browning. They added a whole bunch of new faces on defense like real talent, draft and free agency. They get guys coming back from injury like BJ Ojalari who missed his second year, but he had a solid rookie year. Signed Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson, drafted Walter Nolan in the first round. So they added real talent and they were a Top Again, top 10 defense without this talent last year. So the Cardinals, I think are going to be at the very least frisky and a team that I think there was 1 plus 125 on the odds that you sent me. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

They've been one of the most bet teams during the offseason.

[Matt Bellany]

Secrets out. This was a lot more fun taking May than it is right now in July.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, counter. Can I counter?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Bill Simmons]

Who are the blue chippers on this team for you?

[Matt Bellany]

Trey McBride, tight end.

[Bill Simmons]

There's one.

[Matt Bellany]

Paris Johnson Jr. Left tackle.

[Bill Simmons]

Okay.

[Matt Bellany]

Buddha Baker, safety. I would even say they have another safety, Jalen Thompson, who is, like, borderline. But they. I agree with. I know where you're going with this. It's a lot more green and yellow, more like, above average to good.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, that's what. When I did all my preliminary rankings, I, I. I had those. I had Johnson, Harrison, McBride, and Baker, and Harrison's barely. I mean, he certainly didn't earn it last year. We're going more.

[Matt Bellany]

I think it was a college pedigree.

[Bill Simmons]

Right?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. No, he's gonna be.

[Bill Simmons]

He.

[Matt Bellany]

He's just like his dad. It's crazy. Like, he. It's. He's literally a bigger.

[Bill Simmons]

I think he's just like his dad.

[Matt Bellany]

No. Yeah. Yeah. Who. No.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know.

[Matt Bellany]

But I. I do think that they were trying to make him a true ex. Like I talked about with Pickens. He's not that he's a route runner. He's a guy that has to move around the formation. And so I think they pigeonholed him in the first half of the season, and I think they're figuring out a little bit, but I. They need to do it. It's one of those I have to see. Like, in theory, it's like, yeah, they can do it, but it's like, I still have to see it.

[Bill Simmons]

There were games where you didn't even know he was playing. He was one of those. It was like Rossillo's Tobias Harris joke. It was like, hey, there's Marvin Harrison. I didn't realize he was out there the last two hours.

[Matt Bellany]

No, he. He had some empty games.

[Nate Tice]

They.

[Matt Bellany]

They. They faced the. I talked about that cover two stuff. He was getting the respect of that already. But then I was kind of disappointed in the Cardinals passing game to, like, go like, okay, open them up. Like, you're getting these cover two looks. All right? Move them to the slot or move. I don't know. You know? So it's one of those I want to see this year. But if they. If they figure it out, they got a lot of good pieces.

[Bill Simmons]

I do think they had that stretch. I think they won four straight.

[Matt Bellany]

We.

[Bill Simmons]

We got all excited about them and they were overachieving and then they just cratered. Oh, I mean, it was a cratering and they lost that Carolina game.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, Y Carolina. Oh, the Carolina game was brutal.

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know, I just, I don't trust Kyler Murray at all. I, I do not have them marked down. Maybe I'll change my mind as I keep reading the newspaper stuff. All right, give me your second one.

[Matt Bellany]

Second one where my notes there. Oh, okay. Second one was the Bears. I popular case. I'm going to dig in. I know. Again, I, I do believe in Ben Johnson. I, I believe in coaches that don't blink. I, I, I just, I, I think that that's gonna, I think he is very, very detailed and I think he's working with a quarterback that is more detailed than people are getting credit for. I think we've talked about this before, but I like the O line additions like I Joe Tunis, the top five guard. He is Joe Tunney played tackle at the end of last year with the Chiefs.

[Bill Simmons]

It was bad, but that, but the.

[Matt Bellany]

Thing was, it was very unfair. The thing with the Bears is for years, and I would say since Olin Cruz basically retired so over a decade ago, they have had just a hole at center and it's really helped or helped cripple their quarterbacks, their young quarterbacks. I'm a big believer in having a solid center at the very least to take the load off a young quarterback. They went and got, you know, kind of overpaid it a little bit. They got Drew Dalman, but Drew Dahlman at the very least is a top half center in this league, a top 10 center in this league. He has to be specific. They have to use a lot of zone, but they're now working with a play caller that runs a lot of zone and Ben Johnson and I think it works with the quarterback because they're going to do more boot and more play action and more movement to their offense. There's a lot more on this more than just, ooh, good play caller from good offense goes to offense with quarterback. It's more than that. There's a lot of stylistic fits that make sense here. Caleb is a really good quick game and screen thrower because he's so creative and throw sidearm and throw all these funky throws. Ben Johnson calls a lot of receiver screens like that. That's one of the sneaky parts about this Lions offense. Amal Rasay Brown was getting so many receiver screens. Khalif Raymond, even Jameson Williams, all these guys now they get with DJ Moore, who's awesome on receiver screens. Roman Dunes is great on receiver screens. Even the tight end, Colson Loveland's great on little outside receiver screen. So I, I'm digging it. I, I finally am actually like kind of buying the hype. I was not hyped last year. I, I saw the holes in the line. I'm like, this is, this might not go great. I know who the play caller is. I know how this o line is. This might not go great this year. I'm actually buying it because of Dahlman of Tuni, even Ozzy Trapillo who they drafted on day two. There's just a lot that makes sense stylistically and I, I like the defense. Having said that, they face the third hardest schedule so that, that's a little bit of the part of this. But I, I do believe in what I saw from the flashes of Caleb Williams. Even though I think a lot of people, I think this is going to work.

[Bill Simmons]

The offensive line stuff's real. I mean I was doing and shout out to Brandon Thorne because I like when he does his rankings but he did a good job. There was a couple other things, you know, they. The ones that really watch it and study it and what like you just gotta trust them. Cause I'm not going to be able to know who the good right guard is on whatever. But it really looks like they have a top nine or ten offensive line now. And that was the reason last year fell apart among the, you know, it was the coaching and the offensive line.

[Matt Bellany]

The whole team came out, they fixed.

[Bill Simmons]

The coaching, they're going to be able to block, they have weapons, they spent money. Defense should be okay, you know. Is Caleb good? I think is going to be what we find out because I do feel like, I just think Drake may is a safer bet than Caleb as long as he can avoid these big hits that he was taking last year.

[Matt Bellany]

But I just think feature not a bug with Drake.

[Bill Simmons]

Just don't just go out of bounds. Don't put your head down. You're in the NFL, you're not in the ACC anymore. Just go out of bounds, it's fine. But yeah, I see the case for the Bears, but I think it's a pretty popular one. If you had to pick an AFC team, who would you pick? Or the out of nowhere?

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, afc out of nowhere. Oh, man. I had, I think I wrote one down.

[Bill Simmons]

Just say the pats. Come on.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, it was the Patriots, wasn't it? It was the Patriots. Yeah. I think I texted you this, but what's cool About Will Campbell is. I think his floor is just so high that no matter what, he's a best five enabler. Which means no matter what, the Patriots have their best five offensive linemen out there. Because he can play, I think all five spots. And I. There's something to that. Like that that is something that is really beneficial to an offense. He's also a high IQ guy because he was calling out blitzes last year as a left tackle, a true junior left tackle. Just stuff like that. Just little things you see on tape. True leader type. Like not only that, they got Garrett Bradbury, who was iffy last year. He gave up a lot of pressure last year with the Vikings. But I did like the third round pick. I like Jared Wilson from. From the. From Georgia. I thought he's. He's more of a. He's a big athlete, different than what you usually see at center. But he really took to it like he's a guy. I was really high on this draft process, so I actually. And I like that he doesn't necessarily have to start right away, but I do think I really like the upside of what he can become. And again, I talk about having a good center quarterback pairing. I think that's paramount to a good offense. So yeah, of course I just have to talk about the offensive line. But that's because where the success is going to come from. And then.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, but think about it though. Last year they had a 00 out of 10 coaching staff and they had a 0 out of 10 offensive line. So if you're going just 20 points for those two units, they get a zero. And now maybe Vrabel, maybe he can be like a seven or an eight out of 10 and maybe the offensive line can be a four. And so that's gotta be worth like four wins.

[Matt Bellany]

There's something to like. People always think you have to go from shit to like great. There's something from just going to shit to not shit. You know, from a 0 to a 4, 1 to a 5 or a 6, like that you can get a huge. I was just talking about the be. Drew Dahlman just has to be above average. And it's like four tiers better center play than the Bears have had in years. But same with the Patriots. But it's just their entire offensive line and Cole Strange is coming back. Cole Strange has had moments and stretches where he like it looks like a good starter. It's just that it's just been few and far between with the injuries and stuff. So.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, well, I'm already Covered with the Pats. You like the Cowboys.

[Matt Bellany]

Where are they at now? 7 and a half, 8 and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

The Pats are like in the Plus 156 range to make the playoffs, which seems way too low. Cowboys are plus 186. You also like when you talk about this exercise and I'm going to be talking about it a bunch on this podcast, but you almost like it's like a nightclub. Somebody's got to come out to bring the new person in. Right. So to me that if the Bears are going to get in there, Green Bay has to leave.

[Matt Bellany]

Right?

[Bill Simmons]

Green Bay. That's. That's the spot, you know, for Arizona. It's probably the Minnesota spot if, if they're going to grab one of them. Right. Because I think we both think the.

[Matt Bellany]

Rams are going to pump up the Rams too. Yeah, exactly. And it's like, all right. And then we just pumped up the 49ers as well. So it's who is not making it. I know. And that that's what's more bullish on the Seahawks too. More than most people are too. I will say, oh me make the.

[Bill Simmons]

Case because I do feel like they're. They're over under seems at least a win too low. And I thought Sam Darnold versus Gino seems like sideways, right?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I do too.

[Bill Simmons]

Year two, the coach, I thought they had a really good draft. That was. I thought they had one of the four or five best drafts. Right.

[Matt Bellany]

Yep. I agree. And I think their defense is going to be like legit. Legit. McDonald's defense usually takes a minute for to click and because just because it's so varied, they run a lot of. They run a lot of a lot. People say, oh, you got to copy the McDonald's scheme. It's like, well, that means you're running everything. But no, they shored up. Once they got Ernest Jones last year, the linebacker play got better. Their defensive fronts can be really, really good. They got a lot of different body types too. They got gap shooters, pluggers. Leonard Williams really came along who they traded for last year. But they have a. They have a lot of talent up front, but also they have really talented DBs. Devon Weatherspoon is all pro worthy in the slot and he's going to get weaponized in this defense. But I agree with you. I think Darnold is a sidestep because I think the offense is floor is going to be higher. They put a lot on Geno last year with a play caller that seemed to be in over his Head, as it turned out. Now they get Kubiak, and I think that offense, they're going to run a lot of zone, a lot of boots. Darnold's fine in that, and he'll bring some highs to the offense because he's going to go for it. He's hell or high water. He'll bring some lows, too. But I think that's kind of part of the offense, you know what I mean? We're going to lean on the defense, have a zone run game and have some volatility with our pass game, but we'll live with it. I'm. Yeah, I'm higher on them. They cut Noah Fant today, which was interesting, but I, I still like AJ Barner a lot, their tight end and the guy they drafted, Elijah Arroyo. But no, they. I'm higher on them than most because I think that defense is going to be pretty, pretty good. And I think the offense is going to be better than people anticipate they drafted. I keep going and going. Sorry, but Gray's a bell at guard, I like Ola Olawatimi at center, I like Charles Cross, the left tackle. And again, going from shit to not shit. Not saying this is going to be a top five offensive line, but a zone boot offense helps the offense a lot. So they could be like 18th or 20th. And I think that I see a vision here, like, I think a higher vision than maybe others do.

[Bill Simmons]

Two good, Two good drafts in a row, which is always. I like their draft last year. I thought they got a couple good.

[Matt Bellany]

Guys out of that.

[Bill Simmons]

So, yeah, there's Murphy. I would. I personally like the Seattle case more than the Arizona case. But this is why we have all this time to think about it. All right, that's. Well, we left just enough time. We left just enough time for the, the Minnesota Timberwolves. And the Buzz already started in that they got to do well this year. Anthony Edwards is going to start looking around. God, why, why do we have to do this with the NBA? I never understand it. Can we just have good things? He likes Minnesota. The team's good. They made the conference final two years in a row. What are we doing?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, yeah. Dame Moore covers the Wolves, does a great job.

[Nate Tice]

He.

[Matt Bellany]

He laid it all out. He's like, Anthony, no one can make more money than Anthony Edwards if you stay as a Timberwolf, like, ever, because he was number one pick and he's already made all pro or all NBA teams. And so, you know, it can hit a higher, higher number. He's not Going anywhere. Have we looked at the youth of this team? Like, the, the summer league squad was like, that was a lot of fun to watch when you have some legit NBA guys out there, as opposed to like, Tyus Jones is your best player. You know, it was. You know, TJ Shannon was way too good out there. And you can see Edwards was at every game and he was hyped up for all the guys and stuff. And. Yeah, he's not going anywhere, I don't think.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, you know what else you have this year, which I'm really excited about. The, the full. Bringing Garnett back into the fold.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes.

[Bill Simmons]

Because that's been one of the big tragedies of the. Like, he hated Glenn Taylor. There were real reasons for it. All he wanted to do was be a big part of the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he was going to wait until. So now you're going to bring. They'll retire his number this year. I don't know. The vibes are good. And by the way, you made the conference finals two years in a row. Right. The team's doing well. Things.

[Matt Bellany]

Things are okay.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

And shooting the Joan Baron J, who I. I admit I watched 5 minutes of before the draft.

[Bill Simmons]

The highlights were good.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, my goodness. He's second youngest player in the draft, which is always going to get me going. But he catches everything. Like, I'm. I'm pretty astounded by him. Like, I. He moves like a star and I know I'm getting way ahead of myself. Five summer league games. Four and four and a half.

[Bill Simmons]

It's very fluid. I very.

[Matt Bellany]

I saw it was. It's something. There's something there. Like, he catches. He has a good feel for space. He's stronger than. He's not just this lanky athlete.

[Bill Simmons]

Little French connection with Gobert. Obviously Gobert. And it tipped him off.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I know. It's. I. I was pleasantly surprised by his summer week.

[Bill Simmons]

What do you get from Dillingham, though? Like, how does this Dillingham thing work? Because, I mean, I thought the off season was a miracle that you got to keep Naz Reed and Randle. I didn't think that in February. That seemed impossible to me. I didn't. I didn't understand what was going to happen with the lack of a market and how all these guys are basically screwed. But just to keep it seemingly you're going to keep one of those three. And you kept two of the three. You lost Alexander Walker, which is the easiest guy to replace. But. But Dillingham now has to be Good next year. Or at least as a bench guy.

[Matt Bellany]

It was interesting. And I talked to Rob Morgan about this, but he. Or Daymore. I'm sorry, he had a point that he brought up then. The summer league is they use Dillingham in a different role each game. Okay. You're the primary creator in this game. You're off ball in this game. And some of that was how the defenses were playing. But it was a really interesting. I thought his best game was when he was off ball and as opposed to primary creator. And I thought that was, you know, slashing and then making the extra pass. I. I thought, you know, what's really nice too, is he can shoot off the bounce, and that's huge because of how he wants to play. He's a great OOP thrower as well, which is something ant is very weirdly if he at. But that helps as well. Just opens up that part of the offense. I. He is not my cup of tea usually. My types of players, you know, triple heavy, undersized. Yeah, that's not usually what I prefer. But the thing is, is they have a good size on the team to insulate that. You know, kind of just. There's not three of these undersized guys. Everybody else is jumbo on the Timberwolves at their position. So I do like that fit with it. I just think he's going to take some time and he needs to play. He has to figure out what he can and can't get away with. But this is a team that wants to make a run. So it's. That's. That's the balance that I think Finch has to have.

[Bill Simmons]

Trade bait.

[Matt Bellany]

TJ Shannon being legit is making everything feel a lot better to me, at least. I think he's going to really be a really nice player.

[Bill Simmons]

The Conley piece is the piece that unfortunately, you're in the same boat that the Celtics were in with Horford last year, where it can look good in the regular season, especially if he's only playing two games a week. But once. Once you get in that playoff grind and you're playing every other day, and in his case, you have to go through okc, the most frightening team of all time. If you're a guard and he's going to be 38 next year, it's just not. You're just not beating OKC, if he's.

[Matt Bellany]

Playing big minutes and it's terrifying when he's out there, you can feel it's NBA playoff basketball. And it's really nice to have a team to Watch again throughout it. I. It's so crazy. And this is what the NFL is. Week to week. We talk about matchups, but it's so crazy in the NBA when you just feel a guy getting picked on because it's so open. In the NBA it's five on five. So you know who's getting isolated, who's getting picked, who has to. They're making switch onto the ball.

[Bill Simmons]

What's the NFL equivalent of that?

[Matt Bellany]

Running out of guy. Like if the guy can't hold up against the run and you just.

[Bill Simmons]

Right. Like an undersized linebacker, an undersized D. Anderson.

[Matt Bellany]

He's a good player. Like, you know, like Bryce Huff or Hassan Redick. Really good against the pass. But it's like, okay, well, you're undersized. We'll just run a tight end and a right tackle at you over and over again and we'll get six yards. Wait, that's kind of what it is. Or man to man coverage and a guy can't. Guy, guy just can't keep up with the other dude. That's. That's what the NFL is like the best coaches. It's just like, you watch.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

You Talk about Sean McVeigh and what Kyle Shanahan do. Sean Payton, Andy Reid, they do all the motion and stuff. All they're doing is manipulating the defense to get into a certain look. So this guy's exposed or this defensive exposed. And it's just, you know, same thing in the NBA that you see all the picks and switches and all that. It's like, oh, they're just trying to get this guy isolated 25ft out. So it's fun to watch. Like, I'm trying to get more into NBA tactics. I'm picking it up a little bit.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, everyone was so freaking hunt heavy that, you know, it was interesting to watch that OKC Indiana series when you know, there was just so much movement at all times. It was like this level above hunting. It was pretty cool. And then of course, Halberton blows out his Achilles game seven falls apart. All right, great series by the way. Before we go, what's this thing? You're the single thing you're most excited about with this 2025 NFL season as you dive into things. What's your number one thing?

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, man. All the second year quarterbacks, that's cheating. But all of them, because I think every story of them is going to be significant. Can commanders stay up top? What is Caleb Williams. I'm high on them. What's Drake May? I'm super High on him? Can Bo Nix improve? Can Michael Pennix be anything? What is JJ McCarthy? Because I think all those teams can be, can make noise like in some way shape or form. So I think that's my cheating answer. But yeah, the second year QBs there's the changing of the guard happening right now. You know we're feeling it with Mahomes and Allen and Lamar and Burrow and all these guys. There's more coming. We got some real talented dudes coming through and I'm excited to see them all take a leap.

[Bill Simmons]

Well and then this draft next year I did my.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, yeah, Jesus.

[Bill Simmons]

I did my QB rankings and I moved Mahomes out of the alpha spot for the first time this decade and I put Josh Allen in there.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. I love Josh Allen.

[Bill Simmons]

One guy has to get the highest thing and I'm just like, I just think, listen, whatever we. I'm not going to do a 40 minute Mahomes conference. I just think Josh Allen's the safest bet at a quarterback in the NFL right now and I think he has to be the alpha. It's right.

[Matt Bellany]

I think there's a three man tier with Lamar Allen and Mahomes.

[Bill Simmons]

I agree. So you have to pick one.

[Matt Bellany]

I have Mahomes in two minute man.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm just talking regular season. Regular season.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Josh Allen's a force of nature because.

[Bill Simmons]

It'S just he has to be the regular season alpha at this point.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh man. Yeah. Just because the Bill's offense is better. That's what it just looks like. He's, he's, he's fake like Mahomes is fake but Josh Allen's actually fake like he's a creative player. He's with Cam Noten. Cam Newton times two to me because I think even just throwing wise he's doing even more. But yeah, no, I, I think Allen is to me is the clear two. I still have my homes just because I respect what he does. But I think Allen is a clear too to me. I mean that's why he's defending MVP.

[Bill Simmons]

One of the great Allen stats. Was that the 14, 14 sacks for Buffalo last year? Yeah, like it should just get factored into your QB stats somehow. That was always a great Brady Manning stat.

[Matt Bellany]

He gets kind of. I kind of have been really fighting this with Josh Allen and trying to like support him here. He's become one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the NFL and he doesn't get any credit for it because he's just such a freak athletically. But he has become One of. I talk about CJ Stroud getting more control before the snap. Allen's gotten that the last two or three years and he is great at it. It's just that he doesn't get painted that way. Burrow kind of gets the painted this way. You know, Some other guys do. Alan doesn't get painted this way and he's one of the best at it. He calls out blitzes, he changes protections. I. I got reels of it on Twitter. But it's just he has become like a complete guy outside of just the freakiness. And I think that even Mahomes too, all these top guys are very cerebral. But I think Alan kind of gets really underrated with that. Like he's one of the smartest QBs and he gets full control. And then he just is a 0.0001% athlete on top of it, which also helps Allen.

[Bill Simmons]

Then I had the next group. Allen, the Alpha, the Blues, Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson. I put Daniels in there. He has to be. Yeah. See one more. So you'd nudge him back.

[Matt Bellany]

He's top 12. I would say to me, I gotta. I gotta see a little bit more.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, this is why it's a work in progress. I'm glad I asked you.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. No. And then I'm high on Jordan Love more than most people. I think his. He played banged up last year. He doesn't take sacks. He can hit all that high throws. I'm high on the packers too. And I never even talked about him because I really like Love and some of the other stuff they did. So I'm super high on him. I had some other guys pretty high that you. I had Stroud at 10 because I think he's gonna. I think he's gonna have a decent year even without a line stuff. I just think they're getting more control. And I like the receivers. I like the couple guys they drafted and everything.

[Bill Simmons]

Are you pro anti or in the middle with Purdy?

[Matt Bellany]

I'm in the middle. I've said I'm Brock Gnostic. I've been agnostic. But I like him more than I used to. I.

[Nate Tice]

They.

[Matt Bellany]

Last year was really cool to watch. Watch him kind of like they gave him more to do. They. They don't use play action as much and they let him just truly drop back and be a quarterback and like go and progress and it's kind of cool to watch them kind of give him the reins to do it. So like I. I become more anything creative. He's a really good thrower on the move. I, I used to be kind of lukewarm on Purdy, but now I like him. Like, I, I, I, I like, like him, enjoy watching him because he's got some balls on.

[Bill Simmons]

25 to 1 for MVP. Your guy Jordan Love is 25 to 1 as well.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. Yeah.

[Bill Simmons]

But odds are it's going to be Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Just put those bets in now. All right, Nate Tice, go back to your newborn baby and your other child and your wife and symbol of summer league highlights.

[Matt Bellany]

Thank you.

[Bill Simmons]

Anthony Edwards staying. Kevin Garnett's coming back. Football's coming. Things are looking up. Great to see you. Thanks for coming on.

[Matt Bellany]

Thanks for having me. Always fun.

[Bill Simmons]

All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Nate Tice and Matt Bellany. Don't forget, new Rewatchables is coming on Monday. Species, a movie that you can find on streaming services. We're going to really ramp up in August. I'm just warning you now I'm getting all my little dopey movies I wanted to do out of the way in July because it's time to do it. But we have some really good ones coming up as we head to 400 movies on the rewatch. Yeah, we're getting close. I'm going to be back again on Sunday a week from now. So we are sticking to the Sunday schedule and that's the plan. And I'll see you in a week. Enjoy the week. Must be 21 plus in President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + in President D.C. gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com call 1-887-89-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York.