The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: The Fall of the Chiefs (Maybe), SGA Superstar Tips, the Wildes-Greeny Feud, and Week 15 Picks
Date: December 12, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons (A)
Guests: Nick Wright (B), Joe House (C)

Episode Overview

Bill Simmons is joined by Nick Wright for an in-depth, irreverent, and highly competitive episode covering the so-called "fall" of the Kansas City Chiefs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's (SGA) meteoric NBA rise, historic dynasty debates, sports media feuds, and Week 15 NFL picks. Later, Joe House laments his gambling struggles and discusses football picks, the NFL quarterback crisis, and some college football chatter. The tone: classic Simmons—combining deep sports nerdery, personal anecdotes, real-time ranking, and playful trash talk.

Major Sections & Key Discussion Points

1. Nick Wright Finally Appears; Chiefs Dynasty on Trial

(Starts ~03:57)

• Background: Nick Wright makes his first appearance, leading to some good-natured sparring about Mahomes takes and a mutual friend-turned-Excel historian.
• Immediate Take: Simmons jokes, “I wanted to wait until the Chiefs dynasty and Patrick Mahomes’ career was over before I had this guy on... Now the Chiefs are dead and you can finally come on.”
• Nick’s Response: Defends his Chiefs optimism, jokes about needing a Ringer invite since Rich Paul joined, and shares a story about archiving Simmons’ NBA Player Trade Value columns.
  • Notable Quote:
    • Nick Wright: “I compiled in Microsoft Excel archive of your NBA player trade value... tried to see like A'mar'e Stoudemire was once a six and then fell off...tried to do a whole smart thing of like, could you then retroactively do it for previous eras...”

2. The SGA Conversation: From Good to All-Time Great?

(Starts ~05:50)

• Simmons’ Premise: SGA and OKC are on a historic run—dominant, possibly headed towards record wins, and SGA’s case as a generational top-30 player could soon be undeniable.
  • “If they win 75 games, he averages 33, they win the title and go back-to-back…Where does he go in my brain, is he immediately a top 30 player?” (06:01)
• Nick’s Analysis:
  • The SGA leap is unusual—even among all-time greats, few were this lightly regarded in year one and turned into top-tier legends. (08:00–08:40)
  • OKC’s rise feels unprecedented because their "machine-like, hyper-efficient, and personality-light" style resists the normal backlash great teams face (12:13–13:38).
  • Notable Moment: Discussion on how SGA “games the system” drawing fouls and the lack of traditional star charisma or controversy.
  • On team-building: “They have no controversial personalities. The closest thing is their group interviews are corny.” (13:12)
  • Simmons: "It’s tough for J-Dub when it’s like, ‘he’s a top 15 guy,’ and then they go 23 and 1 and he’s not playing. Maybe not." (10:06)
• Context Parallels: How to historically compare this OKC run to the 07 Pats, 2013 Heat, 2016 Warriors—“the weight of the streak” (18:08–19:20).

3. NBA Pantheon: SGA’s Hypothetical Place in NBA History

(24:40–36:00)

• All-Time Ranking Exercise:
  • Simmons and Wright take turns constructing the “top 20” players, debating SGA's hypothetical ceiling.
  • Highlighted Players: LeBron, Kareem, MJ, Russell, Magic, Wilt, Duncan, Kobe, Bird, Hakeem, Shaq, Curry, Joker, Giannis, KD, Dirk, Dr. J, Moses, Barkley, etc.
• Notable Quotes:
  • Wright: “You’re 100% right on Duncan over Kobe. It’s the most frustrating argument but that’s fine.” (26:15)
  • Simmons: “If SGA went back-to-back…with the resume he’d be…logical successor to the best guard alive belt for four years.” (24:41)
• Franchise Fit & Luck: How landing in a “90th percentile outcome” situation boosts SGA (and mirrors past legends like Magic, Bird, Duncan, Kobe)—with outliers like Jordan, LeBron, Steph who had to lift franchises.

4. Mahomes, Chiefs, and Dynasty Definitions

(38:46–56:00)

• Chiefs’ Struggles – Excuses or Explanations?
  • A lightning round of "favorite excuses" for the Chiefs’ regression: Kelsey/Andy Reid getting old, too many games played, lack of deep threats, bad salary cap, karma, Taylor Swift, etc.
    • Simmons: “Karma for what? Just because some of the guys you’ve signed over the years?” (42:38)
  • Nick acknowledges “the stomach punch of the three-peat chase” and posits that only the Patriots have stretched a dynasty this long. (41:11)
• Patriots & Chiefs Dynasty Comparison:
  • Nick notes the eerie parallel between Brady “going for the fourth ring in year seven and then hitting a dry spell” and Mahomes’ current arc.
  • Debate about whether the Pats had “one dynasty or two” (47:01).

5. Mahomes’ Legacy and GOAT Conversation

(47:41–56:27)

• Sliding Doors & What-Ifs:
  • If Mahomes had won vs. Philly, “it’s undeniable…there would have been a co-GOAT possibility at that point.” (51:21)
• Brady vs. Mahomes Metrics:
  • “Everyone agrees that through eight seasons…Mahomes’ career outstrips Tom’s…He needs to be way ahead of Brady’s pace because the odds are he won’t play 20 years.” (54:31)
• Simmons’ Blunt Verdict: “I’m sorry, but he’s eliminated.” (56:25)
• Playoff Scenarios:
  • Nick walks through Chiefs’ playoff math, remaining schedule, and tiebreakers, arguing a 10-7 wild-card berth is still plausible. (57:19–59:04)

6. Josh Allen, Lamar, and QB Drama

(59:54–67:41)

• Simmons and Nick debate expectations for Josh Allen (“It has nothing to do with how good the team is…in those five years you get bounced every time…you gotta break through”), address the Bills’ limited supporting cast, and revisit Allen’s close playoff losses. (61:00–63:03)
• Strange vibes between Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh: repeated miscommunication over injuries, apparent trust issues, and “Kawhi territory.” (64:10–66:06)
• Speculative QB trades: e.g., Joe Burrow for Hurts or to the Rams/Vikings, as Cincinnati’s organizational struggles come under scrutiny. (67:41–69:22)

7. Media Rivalries: Wilds vs. Greeny and Rising Generation Feuds

(69:34–73:15)

• Simmons teases Nick about his competitive mindset regarding media peers, rivalry with “weight class” contemporaries, while Wilds is “the only guy who doesn’t want a rival.”
  • Nick: “Greeny’s standing between you and what you’ve worked for. You both care about your hair. It all makes sense.” (73:36)

8. LeBron’s Final Act: Wright’s Wish

(73:51–78:44)

• Simmons asks what Nick, as a massive LeBron fan, wants for the “rest of the 2000s” with LeBron.
  • Nick: “Cleveland or New York. One year—it feels like Cleveland’s the move.” (74:46)
  • They consider LeBron’s “2018 was my peak” claim and argue over MVP “he should have won.”
  • Frustration over Simmons’ ever-cautious LeBron rankings: “Every team Durant goes to is miserable and … LeBron is… 24 felt good.” (75:22)

9. NFL Week 15 Picks & Gambling Therapy – Joe House Joins

(82:08–End)

• Joe House laments his record, is threatened with firing (“You gotta step up!”), and takes part in marathon pick strategizing.
• The “Ringer 107” picks segment includes:
  • Old Man QB watch: Philip Rivers’ unlikely return: “I can’t think of a worse situation. Are they trying to kill him?” (83:37)
  • Analysis of Seattle’s dominant defense, game scripting vs. Rivers, and “Curse of Peyton Manning” theory for Colts’ bad QB luck (86:49–87:53).
  • Gambling picks discussed/debated: Seattle/Colts under, Ravens/Bengals, Rams/Lions, Packers/Broncos, Chiefs/Chargers, Dolphins/Steelers.

Notable Gambling Banter

• Simmons: “People said they never thought Simmons would take Tua in cold weather. But we said, fuck it. We did it.” (106:19)
• Chiefs-Chargers logic: “Don’t overthink it…if you can’t block, don’t even plan for the backdoor cover…” (101:34)

10. NBA Odds, Trade Rumors, & NCAA Football Chatter

• OKC’s odds for 74 wins plummet; House and Simmons marvel at the historic pace and parlay options (108:38–109:11).
• NBA side talk: underperforming Lakers, overachieving Knicks, and possible trades (Tyler Herro, Sabonis, etc.).
• College football side: extended tribute to James Madison coach Bob Chesney, now at UCLA, and personal connection to the coaching carousel (119:31–124:09).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Nick Wright:
  • "The only thing they came close to the backlash on [OKC] has kind of figured out better than anyone ever how to game the system on the lunch...His little lunch. Sometimes you watch Shay…he went into that move with the hope of drawing a foul. And I think people don’t love that. But it doesn’t matter because it’s wildly effective and nobody seems to have an answer…” (13:39)
• Bill Simmons:
  • “Every time Bill Russell played in the playoffs he won. Except for the time he had like a high ankle sprain right foot almost came off his body. Or the other time when Wilt killed them in ’67.” (25:53)
  • “Karma for what? Just because some of the guys you’ve signed over the years? Maybe the karma. Yeah, yeah.” (42:38)
  • "I'm sorry, but he's eliminated. Brady never played a meaningless NFL game. He never started a meaningless NFL game." (56:25)
• Joe House: “I don’t think Rivers ever really lost arm strength…I will have to check the next-gen stats to see how many miles an hour he was throwing five years ago. But…the real issue is he couldn’t move and I don’t think that got any better.” (84:34)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Nick Wright joins, Chiefs dynasty & SGA intro – 03:57–06:59
• SGA’s rise, OKC dominance, modern NBA parallels – 06:59–19:20
• OKC comparisons, NBA dynasties, streaks – 18:08–20:29
• Pantheon NBA debates & SGA’s future place – 24:40–36:00
• Chiefs excuse-ology & dynasty exhaustion – 38:46–56:25
• PO scenarios, Mahomes vs Brady legacy math – 54:18–56:34
• Josh Allen, Lamar-John Harbaugh issues – 59:54–67:02
• Media rivalries, Wildes-Greeny feud campaign – 69:34–73:15
• LeBron future & MVP ranking nerdouts – 73:51–78:44
• Joe House, NFL pick therapy, QB crisis – 82:08–84:34
• Peyton Manning Colts curse, Phil Rivers return – 86:49–87:53
• NFL picks segments (skip ads, just analysis) – throughout 88:42–107:50
• OKC NBA odds/historical streaks – 108:38–109:11
• College football coach Bob Chesney to UCLA, personal tale – 119:31–124:09

Summary Table: Ringer 107 NFL Picks Segment

| Matchup | Pick(s) | Rationale | |---------|---------|-----------| | Seattle–Colts | Seahawks -6.5 & Under 48.5 | Phil Rivers’ return, Seattle D | | Ravens–Bengals | Ravens -2.5 | Bengals down bad, must-win for BAL | | Dolphins–Steelers | Dolphins +3 (cold weather zag) | Dolphins run game vs. PIT run D | | Packers–Broncos | Packers -2.5 | GB offense vs. DEN D; class difference | | Chiefs–Chargers | Chiefs -5.5 | Desperate Chiefs, Chargers OL woes |

Episode Wrap Up

The episode is vintage Simmons—basketball nerddom, NFL legacy debates, “sliding doors” what-if chatter, a few jabs at rivals, and degenerate gambling perfect for December. Wright and Simmons’ lively chemistry shines through as they weave between SGA’s ascent, Mahomes vs. Brady, and the ever-entertaining state of sports media drama, all with House’s sickly but dedicated picks grind as the finale.

For listeners who missed the episode:

• Get a primer on SGA’s all-time case and OKC’s unique modern dominance,
• Dive deep into NFL dynastic fatigue and what might really ail the Chiefs,
• Hear a rare, extended Mahomes vs. Brady legacy debate,
• Enjoy a who’s-who of sports media rivalry teasing and NBA pantheon nerdery,
• Catch NFL picks logic that balances analytics, ego, and humor,
• And, yes, get a heartfelt sendoff for a cult NCAA football coach that only Simmons’ show would deliver.

“If five Super Bowls in six years with three rings isn’t a full-grown adult dynasty, then we’re never having another one.” — Nick Wright (48:32)