The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: "The Kimmel Situation. Plus, 'Can the Chiefs Really Go 0-3?' and More Week 3 Gambling Questions With Joe House"
Date: September 19, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons (A) | Guest: Joe House (B)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Bill Simmons opens with an extended and impassioned monologue on the brewing controversy around Jimmy Kimmel's potential removal from ABC, the role of network leverage and censorship, and what it means for the future of personalities like Kimmel in the shifting media landscape. Transitioning to sports, Simmons is joined by Joe House for deep-dives into Week 3 NFL betting lines, power rankings, and their collective gambling picks. They break down trends, team prospects, and their favorite wagers in detail, with the usual banter, granular analysis, and a heavy does of self-deprecation around their own pick records.

Section 1: The Jimmy Kimmel Situation and Late Night TV’s Shaky Landscape

(00:00 – 16:00)

Main Points

• Simmons' Relationship to Kimmel:
  Simmons describes his long history with Jimmy Kimmel, framing his perspective:

  "I've known [Jimmy] since 2001... You're probably not going to be shocked to find out that I'm on Jimmy Kimmel's side with most stuff." (03:23)

• Network Star Power and Changing Media:
  He draws distinctions between Kimmel and other late night figures, explaining why Kimmel is so core to ABC's brand identity, unlike Colbert at CBS:

  "Jimmy was one of the few people you would associate with ABC." (05:41)

• Censorship vs. Cancel Culture:
  Explains the difference and why the Kimmel affair is about leverage and power, not traditional cancel culture.

  "This isn’t cancel culture. This is censorship, which is a completely different situation." (12:25)

• FCC, Affiliates & Network Politics:
  Speaks to the realpolitik—how mergers, affiliate pressure, and federal approvals create leverage to sideline controversial talent.

• Media Evolution – Who Needs Whom?
  Simmons wonders whether personalities like Kimmel even need networks anymore, referencing paradigms from Howard Stern, Conan O'Brien, and Joe Rogan:

  "You can create your own platform now... The platform isn’t ABC... because he’s the platform. And that’s the difference in this." (15:50)

• Historical Parallels and the Anthem for Standing by Talent:
  References McCarthyism, Smothers Brothers, Lorne Michaels and SNL, reflecting on the tension between principle and pragmatism:

  "One of the things I taught myself is you have to stay on the air. It's not worth it to blow yourself up for principle in a community that will sell you out." – Quoting Lorne Michaels (14:00)
  "[Kimmel] will figure it out immediately. And he's the most competitive person I know." (14:55)

Notable Quotes

• On Network Loyalty:

  "Once you start losing your faces, you just don’t have a soul anymore. You’re just another place that’s just pumping out content." (13:05)

• On the Future:

  "If they don’t stick by him and this is the end, I think he’s going to be fine. He’ll find another platform somewhere and he’ll figure out how to get all his content out in the right ways. And I would not bet against that dude." (16:05)

Section 2: NFL Week 3—Big Stories, Lines, and Betting Trends

(18:08 – 62:00)

Setting the Slate:

• Chiefs' Uncertain Start:
  The big NFL question: Can the Chiefs actually start 0-3? Both agree it's unlikely but dissect what’s gone wrong so far.

  "Honestly, the Chiefs, because I think that they still have some chapters to write and I still trust Mahomes and Reid." – Joe House (18:08)

• Key Early Season Narratives:
  The duo breaks down:

  • The Packers’ hot start
  • Colts’ surprising early success
  • Bears’ profound disappointment
  • The Chiefs as a possible dynasty in peril

Gambling Dynamics & Trends (20:00+)

• Market Efficiency:
  Simmons notes it’s harder to find betting inefficiencies now with abundant data, yet there’s still value in classic overreaction spots:

  "It’s a good time to capitalize on some overreactions. But... it’s harder and harder to find the inefficiencies. But we’re going to try." (19:35)

• Stay-Aways and Sharp Bets:
  They declare several games too dicey to bet:

  • Chiefs vs. Giants: "I just don’t feel like... this line should probably be three and a half." (20:21)
  • Raiders–Washington: "Can't play it. Don't know anything about the quarterback." (21:19)
  • Broncos–Chargers: "I would lean Broncos, but it’s a stay away." (28:03)

Game-By-Game Breakdowns

• Colts–Titans:

  • Simmons skeptical of inflated Colts line, likes Titans as a sharp side (50:53)

• Vikings–Bengals:

  • Both quarterbacks are backups; neither host trusts either team (23:07)

• Packers–Browns:

  • Discussion on Browns defense keeping them in games, but Packers as a parlay leg (32:13)

• Bears–Cowboys:

  • Both hosts pan the Bears and lean Dallas, with House declaring his love of the Cowboys this week:

    "I love Dallas this week. I think... the Cowboys are the side in that game." (29:43, House)

• Rams–Eagles:

  • Rams might be for real; Eagles' offense stalling, Goddard's status possibly key (36:51+)

• 49ers–Cardinals:

  • Mutual favorite pick, believe Niners will win in “orderly, tidy” fashion despite any QB uncertainty (39:32, 55:04)

• Jags–Texans:

  • Both lean Jaguars, citing Houston’s inability to block and Jacksonville’s “playmaker upside” (41:35).

• Patriots–Steelers:

  • Simmons is high on the Pats, predicting Pittsburgh is on the verge of a bad season; House likes the pick—especially if Christian Gonzalez plays (45:32)

Parlays & Best Bets

(Several times, but esp. 51:28–57:18)

• Atlanta Falcons Moneyline, paired with Ravens or Seahawks:
  "The Atlanta Falcons, we believe, will absolutely, positively win in Carolina... And then House really wanted to put the Chiefs in here." (62:42)

• Questioning Conventional Wisdom
  House wants to include the Chiefs in parlays because "are the Chiefs really going 0-3?"

Notable Quotes and Exchanges:

• On Cowboys–Bears:

  "Tell me one good thing about the Bears. Tell me one thing that you've seen that's good from the Chicago Bears." – House (29:34)

• On Chiefs’ Odds:

  "Are the Chiefs going 0-3? Is Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes going to go into Giants Stadium and lose to Russell Wilson and your boy Day Ball? That’s going to happen?" – House (54:20)

• On Niners–Cards:

  "I love the 49ers. That's my favorite pick by far of the entire week. I think the cards are fraudulent... just a nice, orderly, tidy win for them." – House (55:04)

• On Pat’s Offense:

  "Left side of the line is actually able to block now. They have multiple receivers who can at least get open on a third and seven and I like the spot for them." – Simmons (46:55)

Timestamped Highlights

• [18:08] – Chiefs as the focal point NFL storyline
• [28:03] – Packers–Browns parlay discussion
• [41:35] – Jaguars vs. Texans breakdown
• [45:32] – Patriots vs. Steelers gambling cases
• [55:04] – Both pick Niners as week’s best bet

Section 3: NBA Brief – Clippers’ Scandal, Offseason Odds, and MVP Futures

(63:35 – 70:00)

Clippers Situation

• Discuss the Clippers’ NBA punishment saga, Adam Silver’s patient approach, and the ongoing investigation into the Kawhi payments (63:35-65:32).

• Simmons’ Suggestion:

  “Should the punishment be: just move to Seattle and call it quits?” (65:05)

• Most Damaging Transaction Ever?

  “It has to be the most damaging transaction in the history of the league.” (66:29)
  (On going into business with Kawhi and the assets lost.)

NBA Futures and Awards Banter

• Luka Doncic’s MVP odds, early East/West favorites, and skepticism over the Lakers (67:00+).

• “Minnesota, to me, is either the third or the fourth best [West] team.” (69:37, House)

Section 4: Ringer 107 Official Gambling Picks

(61:56 – 63:15 and scattered earlier)

"Ringer 107" Picks for NFL Week 3:

1. Cowboys -1.5 at Bears (favored by House)

   "Haven’t seen one thing I like from the Chicago Bears." (61:58)

2. Jags -1.5 at home vs. Houston

3. Patriots +1.5 at home vs. Steelers (Simmons bullish)

4. 49ers -2.5 vs. Cardinals (mutual lock)

5. Parlay: Falcons moneyline in Carolina & Chiefs moneyline at Giants
   (House insists on Chiefs; both believe the Falcons are “absolutely, positively” winning)

Memorable Moments & Tone

• Self-deprecation & Caution:
  Throughout, both poke fun at their betting track records and the inherent unpredictability of the NFL, often cautioning listeners against overconfidence.

• Meta Sports Media Musings:
  Simmons’ Kimmel monologue is vintage sports media critique: nostalgic, personally invested, philosophical, and concerned with larger themes of media integrity and power.

• Tangents and Humor:
  Ranging from John Lennon heckling the Smothers Brothers to hypothetical Kawhi Leonard punishments to fantasy football jokes, the tone is conversational, irreverent, and filled with long-running podcast in-jokes.

Summary Table: Key Topics & Timestamps

| Time | Topic | Quote/Summary | | ------------ | --------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 00:00–16:00 | Kimmel, late night, leverage & censorship | "This isn’t cancel culture. This is censorship..." (12:25) | | 18:08 | Chiefs' slow start big NFL storyline | "The Chiefs... still have some chapters to write..." (18:08, House) | | 28:03–32:40 | Stay-away games, CBS/ABC late night politics | Several games declared too close/hectic to bet | | 39:32 | Niners–Cards confidence | "I love the 49ers. That's my favorite pick..." (55:04, House) | | 45:32 | Patriots–Steelers deep dive | "I think the Pats could cook in this game." (46:55, Simmons) | | 55:04 | Consensus picks (Niners, Cowboys, Pats, Jags, Parlay) | | | 63:35–66:29 | Clippers’ NBA situation, punishment scenarios | "Should the punishment be: just move to Seattle..." (65:05) | | 67:00–70:00 | NBA MVP futures & East/West odds | Luka MVP bet, skepticism about Lakers’ high market odds |

Conclusion

This episode blends Bill Simmons’ trademark long-view media critique with his and Joe House’s granular, data-heavy NFL betting analysis. The Kimmel segment frames the stakes for media personalities in 2025, while the bulk of the show delivers an inside look at sharp betting logic, favorites, and pitfalls for NFL week 3. Classic Simmons/House banter, historical references, and risk-averse caution (self-effacing as always) abound. It’s essential listening for anyone tracking late night TV drama, big-picture sports media trends, or just looking for sharp NFL gambling advice—and a few laughs.