The NFL’s Coaching Carousel, and a Round 2 Breakdown With Peter Schrager and Joe House

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: The NFL’s Coaching Carousel, and a Round 2 Breakdown
Date: January 16, 2026
Guests: Peter Schrager (NFL Insider), Joe House (Ringer mainstay)
Theme: A deep dive into the wild NFL head coaching market, upcoming divisional playoff round, and the ever-present agony and glee of NFL roster construction, media narratives, and gambling picks.

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Episode Overview

This episode is centered on the NFL’s rapidly spinning coaching carousel, reflecting on high-impact coaching changes (notably Harbaugh and Tomlin), NFL ownership philosophies, and how these moves shape the outlook for struggling franchises. The second half zeroes in on divisional round playoff matchups, breaking down each game from angle of betting, matchups, and narrative—peppered with sharp banter, gambling confessionals, and signature Ringer wit.

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Coaching Carousel: Harbaugh, Tomlin & the State of NFL Organizations

The Harbaugh Hire — Giants’ Search for Stability

[03:44 – 11:42]

• Schrager: Compared recent buzz for John Harbaugh to the similar hype over Pete Carroll—except Harbaugh, at 63, is younger and possibly fits what the Giants most need: "That franchise has just lacked an adult in the room for a decade. The fan base needed this guy at this moment."
  • Notable quote: “The Giants needed an adult, and they hired an adult.” (Schrager, 07:14)
• Simmons: Skeptical about fans remembering the Giants’ glory years: "There’s Giants fans in high school who have no recollection of anything good." (06:04)
• Debate: Critiques of Harbaugh: Doesn't call plays, lost locker room in Baltimore, history of poor coordinator hires.
• Insight: The hiring process felt old-school, with classic beat reporter chases and ownership drama. Schrager lauds the coverage: “It had a kind of old school chase to it... Those Giants beat reporters did a great job.” (10:33)
• Media Side Note: ESPN/Netflix coverage of the coaching search gave it a quasi-‘lost era’ vibe, with real-time journalism highlighted.

Tomlin Steps Away — The Steelers’ End of an Era

[12:37 – 19:48]

• Simmons: Finds Tomlin’s exit “way more interesting” than Harbaugh, and the failure to secure a quarterback for years is “inexcusable.”
• House: Wonders about front office dysfunction: “How have they missed? Like, there’s been good quarterbacks for eight years now.” (12:55)
• Schrager: Defends Tomlin’s lack of options due to draft position; reveals Tomlin quit, wasn’t fired—Steelers will demand compensation if he returns before two years.
• Notable quote: “He’s walking away in a place where...I don't think he wanted to hear the noise anymore. I think he wanted a break.” (15:58)
• Ringer Analogy: Comparing these hiatuses to “coaching gap years”: A coach’s reputation only grows during a media break (Riley on NBC effect).
• Reflection on Steelers: Simmons: “This is like the guy selling the house...there’s 90 things about to happen, and he’s just gone. I wish everybody the best.” (18:32)

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Organizational Instability, Ownership, and the Rookie Coach Trap

Assessing the Most and Least Appealing NFL Jobs

[21:59 – 27:31]

• Simmons: Ruthless on the Browns: “I would rather just pass. Terribly owned...seven other teams I’d rather be for the next five years in the AFC.”
• Young Coaches: Teams like the Browns swinging for super-young, little-known coaches because, as Schrager notes, “there are so many negatives to some of these head coaching jobs.” (24:18)
• Job-Hopping Advice:
  • Simmons’ “coaching consigliere” framework: “Who’s your quarterback, who’s your owner? If you’re 0/2, I’m out.” (25:54)
• Comparison of Openings: Cardinals and Browns are painted as coaching graveyards; Vegas, Atlanta, and (with caveats) the Raiders have appeal due to better QB/ownership situations.

Former QBs as NFL Decision-Makers

[36:13 – 37:23]

• New trend: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Troy Aikman quickly elevated into organizational roles. Schrager: “Now you got Troy Aikman and Tom Brady and, you know, Matt Ryan, who are like, I have actually done it. I actually respect that, too.” (37:14)
• Simmons: Skeptical of ex-players seamlessly becoming front office architects: “Matt Ryan, you’ve been on the set of CBS for two years. Tell us how to rebuild our football organization from top to bottom.” (37:23)
• Cultural Fit: “Survival for these executives is always in the equation...that’s why Belichick got one interview...you’re handing the keys over to Vrabel.” (Schrager, 39:17)

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Playoff Round Two Breakdown

Betting & Manifesto Rules Galore

[42:11 – 95:35]

1. Bills at Broncos

[42:11 – 53:43]

• Josh Allen Paradox: Bills keep scraping by despite a depleted roster. Simmons: “You’re getting a point and a half just because of Josh Allen...I can’t think of another reason.”
• Broncos Case: Home dominance, Sean Payton’s track record, and a healthy, rested team.
• Dissent: If you’re resorting to “never bet against the QB” as the only reason, Simmons concludes, “That’s not a good enough reason.” (50:21)
• Consensus pick: Leaning Broncos -1.5.

2. Seahawks at 49ers

[53:46 – 63:32]

• Narrative: Banged-up 49ers, Shanahan’s genius vs. a peaking Seattle defense.
• Injury drama: Sam Darnold "oblique" may put Drew Lock under center; “that’s as bad as one of the arm injuries.” (54:38)
• Simmons: “This is laid out for the Seahawks—they could win the Super Bowl if they don’t screw it up.” (56:48)
• Counter-case: Niners move the ball well but have come up short; Shanahan’s scheme could save them. “Beware the 'nobody believes in us' team—Niners in neon.” (59:34)
• Pick: 49ers +7.

3. Patriots vs. Texans

[66:05 – 78:24]

• Matchup: New England’s offensive creativity vs. historically fast and aggressive Texans’ defense.
• Schrager: Raves about Houston: “This might be like the 2000 Ravens, they might not need to do anything on offense.” (68:17)
• Simmons: Pushes back: Houston offense is limited, bad offensive lines don’t travel, Stroud looked lost last week; weather and home field favor the Pats.
• Key stat: Milton Williams’ impact on New England’s run defense (“when he’s in it’s the second best run defense in the NFL”, House, 70:39).
• Favorite bets:
  • Stroud to throw a pick (-125)
  • Patriots-Texans game tied at halftime, Pats win (17-1)
• Pick: Patriots -3.

4. Bears vs. Rams

[79:21 – 91:14]

• Backstory: Coaching beef—Ben Johnson’s trash-talking locker room video did not sit well with Sean McVay and the Rams staff. “I think McVay wants to kick the snot out of Ben Johnson.” (79:25)
• Matchups:
  • Rams run game and offensive line potentially overpower Bears’ weak rush defense.
  • Weather: Significant cold in Chicago, questions about Rams’ adaptability.
• Simmons invokes Manifesto Rules:
  • #8: "Beware any AG QB in cold weather."
  • #12: Avoid teams coming off a "Super Bowl-like" win (the Bears last week).
  • #13: "Don’t dismiss the nerd evidence" (Rams’ poor special teams—potential fatal flaw in the cold).
• Worst-Case Scenarios Tabled: Both teams can win, Bears’ relentless comeback ability vs. Rams’ “jugger-juggernaut” narrative is overstated.
• Pick: Bears +3.5.

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Notable Quotes and Moments

• On Giants Coaching Search
  • “It had a kind of old school chase to it... those Giants beat reporters did a great job on this one.” – Peter Schrager [10:33]
• Simmons, on Giants’ drought:
  • “There’s Giants fans in high school who have no recollection of anything good.” [06:04]
• On Coaching Organizational Philosophy:
  • “If you’re 0 for 2 with [owner and QB], I’m out.” – Bill Simmons [25:54]
• On Tomlin’s Exit:
  • “He’s walking away in a place where...I don’t think he wanted to hear the noise anymore. I think he wanted a break.” – Peter Schrager [15:58]
• On Texans D:
  • “They might not need to do anything on offense...Win games 13–10, 16–13. This defense is that good.” – Schrager [68:17]
• On Manifesto Rules:
  • “Beware the 'nobody believes in us' team...that’s the Niners and all flashing colors in neon. That’s rule three.” – Bill Simmons [59:34]
• Banter: Running “nobody believes in us” and “Pat Riley NBC” effect jokes throughout.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Harbaugh & the Giants: 03:44–12:00
• Tomlin & Steelers fallout: 12:37–19:48
• Ownership, rookie coaches, and organizational instability: 21:59–40:05
• Bills @ Broncos playoff breakdown: 42:11–53:43
• Seahawks @ 49ers playoff breakdown: 53:46–63:32
• Patriots vs. Texans playoff breakdown: 66:05–78:24
• Bears vs. Rams playoff breakdown: 79:21–91:14
• Ringer picks and round-up: 93:35–95:35

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Tone and Language

• Conversational, insider-heavy, with a blend of sarcasm, gambling paranoia, and football-nerd revelry.
• Simmons and House keep the jokes coming—lamenting their losing bets (“We remain the carcass of Ringer 107 picks season”) and riffing on media absurdities, “blue shirt khaki pants mafia,” fake Manifesto rules, and everything from Hollywood to 2000 Ravens references.

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Final Notes

• The episode blends savvy NFL insight with classic Ringer meta-commentary—in equal parts a clinic on what matters in hiring coaches, and a confessional for tormented NFL gamblers.
• Takeaways: Don’t overrate name coaches, beware incompetent franchises, and never, ever trust cold-weather games involving AG QBs or the Ringer parlay picks.
• Picks recap: Broncos -1.5, 49ers +7, Patriots -3, Bears +3.5

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For listeners who missed it:
This episode is a Ringer sports feast—tailored for die-hards eager for coaching inside dirt, cultural NFL references, media narratives, and investor-grade picks for divisional round football.

Transcript

[A]

This episode is brought to you by Firehouse Subs who just dropped a game changing sandwich. The French Dip. Literally one of my favorite sandwiches slash subs. Roast beef, caramelized onions, melty cheese, little freshly toasted garlic butter roll and the warm savory au jus. I've been eating these forever since I was living on the east coast in la. I think to me this versus the cheesesteak, the French dip, no contest, way better. And I think it's really because of the au jus. I don't know anybody who doesn't like au jus. An elite game day sub. Fun to order by the way if you want it delivered because they usually put the au jus in the special little container you can pour it on. Knock yourself out. The French Dip here for a limited time. I wish it was longer only at Firehouse Subs. Limited time at participating Firehouse Subs restaurants while supplies last. The Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. We are also presented by the Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a new rewatchables on Tuesday we did what Lies Beneath. We have a really good movie coming out Monday. Good meaning that we've been dying to do this one for years. So stay tuned for that. You'll be either pleasantly surprised or horrified, but be one or the other. This is my fourth podcast of the week. It's our first week on Netflix. We remain on video and you can listen to us on Spotify as well. And you can find us on any podcast platform you want. We will be going live on Sunday right after the fourth playoff game of the weekend, which is Rams Bears Cousin salute. Be around 7 o'.

[B]

Clock.

[A]

We will be live on Netflix for that and you'll be able to listen to that one right after coming up here. We're going to have Peter Schrager come back. We have Joe House still here. We're a carcass from last week. We got killed on picks. It's fine. We're going to talk round two. We're going to talk coaches, a whole bunch of other stuff next. Let's take a break. Pro jam and then boom, let's go. The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by fanduel. Fanduel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live. They have your way. Go check out your way. You can build the beta that fits your play your way. Plus don't miss out on the NFL playoffs. One of my favorite times of the year. All month long, download the FanDuel app or head to FanDuel.com BS to get started, get ready for the playoffs. Let's go. Must be 21 +president, select states 18 + in DC, Kentucky and Wyoming. Gamble problem, call win 800, gambler or visit rg-help.com call 888-78-9777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. All right, recording this late afternoon Pacific time. Joe House here as always as we continue the carcass that was our Ringer 107 picks season. I like it. At this point I'd rather with picks either be terrible or good and we've been terrible this year. Peter Schrager joining us. He's been doing media, I think for 48 straight hours. I've seen him on every ESPN channel. Just Tom and Harbaugh. You just rinse, lather, repeat. Tom and Harbaugh. Tom and Harbaugh. Tom and Harbaugh. Why was this such a big deal?

[B]

Which one? Both of them.

[A]

Just the combo of it. It felt like this end of an era, start of a new era thing. But meanwhile, neither guy had won a playoff game. Well, Tom and I had won a he'd lost his last seven. Harbaugh hadn't made the Super bowl since when, 2013?

[B]

Yep, since the Superdome.

[A]

And yet it was everyone was reacting like this, like, do these guys have anything left in the tank, in your opinion, to be super bowl winning coaches?

[B]

Interesting, because as everyone was doing flips on my ESPN networks today and hello to the Netflix audience, I'm happy if you're watching Emily in Paris, I'm here now. This is good. As everyone's doing flips about the Harbaugh, someone in the NFL, a very trusted source, texted me and goes, I could have sworn you were all doing the same flips about Pete Carroll. Last year when the Raiders hired Pete Carroll and they thought that that was the culture guy and that was going to bring st And I said it's a little different. It's a little different in that Harbaugh is 11 years younger than Pete Carroll and in this case, like he is what the Giants actually need. Such turbulence there over the last five, 10 years. And this is almost, I don't like saying I didn't want to say this on air on television because it almost goes to like a dark place. But John Mayer is sick. Like John Mayer, the owner of the Giants is sick in a way that in this move is like him putting his flag down saying, okay, whatever happens over the next however long, like we know this franchise is at least in capable hands. And we know that John Harbaugh is going to at least instill stability and install a professionalism and a culture of discipline. Winning Giants football, that is what those fans have always known, whether it be Coughlin or Parcells or even Dan Reaves, like, there's always been that. That senior voice, that leader, that guy who's been there, done that before even getting there.

[A]

You mean the fans over 18 years old?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, that's.

[A]

Sorry. I hate the Giants and so does House. No, just. They haven't been good. They haven't been good in 11 years.

[C]

I've been fine with it.

[A]

I've enjoyed like, oh, the Giants fans are so used to this. It's like there's Giants fans in high school who have no recollection of anything good happening with this team. So it's been a while, I guess.

[B]

And the counter to Harbaugh, which there's many, like, I'm telling you, my phone lights up when I go on these ESPN shows. People in the league who are like, always just quick to tell me I'm wrong. So as I was praising the hire and saying why this doesn't necessarily work for seven of the nine, avail or not, seven of the eight teams, Giants made sense. Giants need this. That franchise needs this. Someone said he's 63. He doesn't call offense or defense. He's. He lost the locker room this year in Baltimore of a bunch of 20 year olds who he didn't connect with anymore. And oh, by the way, for Mr. Special Teams Coach and CEO, they blow leads more than any team in the fourth quarter. So what exactly are you getting? And I'm like, all valid, all fair. The Giants fan base and franchise needed this guy at this moment.

[A]

Well, you left out that the hiring of coaches didn't seem like it was one of his strong suits either. Other than Mike McDonald, who was awesome for him and a big reason why they were succeeding. Now you're seeing him in Seattle. And House, are you nervous about being in your division?

[C]

Yes, definitely. Especially with that Giants roster. I mean, on both sides of the ball, there's talent. I've enjoyed the ineptitude and the thing that, that from the perspective of a Washington fan, they still have that gm. Thank God that GM is still sitting right there in the chair. Somehow he survived over all these years of ineptitude. But here's the thing, man, they needed an adult and they hired an adult like that. That's the thing that's been missing. Day Ball is awesome and honest. Honestly, it's impossible. But the best move for the Giants would be to hire Brian D. As the offensive coordinator. That would be a team that I would actually be.

[B]

Well, don't laugh. Like, so D is actually interviewing or doing this on Thursdays interviewing for the Titans head coaching job tomorrow. And I think Eagles actually makes a lot of sense for him. But Mike Kafka, who was the interim coach and the offensive coordinator last year, like I got it from pretty good people. Like he's still in the mix as an offensive coordinator for the Giants. That the rare like all right, so I was offensive coordinator, new head coach and I was the interim head coach. But I still might be the OC Because Dart actually showed a lot of flashes with him. Everyone in the morning was like, Todd Monkin is going to be his offensive coordinator. Well, Todd Monkin is interviewing for the Cleveland job on Tuesday, I believe for the second time and might be the Cleveland Browns head coach. So slow down with putting in who's going to be the coordinators. But these hires offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator are almost as important as landing the plane with Harbaugh.

[A]

I just, I thought they were sloppy the last couple of years and I thought the stuff with Lamar and the relationship was just strange. Guys one of the best five quarterbacks in the league and. And everything about it seemed choppy and weird. I thought they blew just, I mean house. How many times did they blow games that we bet on?

[C]

I mean that. That's true. Although I would push back gently on the notion that they were sloppy last year. There were some regular season losses last year.

[A]

They were good. You're right.

[C]

The hallmark. But like they were one play away and they were absolutely as talented, if not more talented than the Bills. They just, you know, because they threw away a stupid Raiders game in the early part of the season last year at home to Minchu ended up having to go on the road to Buffalo and it was a last play of the game, you know, kind of situation. And that's been the tale over the last half decade with this Baltimore.

[A]

My thing is it increases their floor. Right?

[C]

Totally agree.

[A]

Now it's like if they. If Harbaugh had been in charge of last year's team, they probably don't have the record they have. I like that he's an adult in a city that's needs adults and needs. You know, it'll be interesting like the whole.

[B]

There's a couple cool meta Brian Curtis sports media stuff here. Oh the people that were. The people that were on it were Ian o' Connor, who's not necessarily a Giants beat writer, right? Like Art Stapleton, who's the local like new jersey.com writer. And you know, you've got guys who we, you know, don't typically get the day to day from. And it was like, this is an old school coach and he's got his people. And as we're tracking everything, what I loved about it was that in real time, it wasn't the 48 hours. Let me show you how they got them. People were like, all right, they're at dinner at a restaurant in East Rutherford right now. Or Chris Mara went and flew to Harbaugh's home and sat with him. Like, the chase was fun. This was like a cool ride for Giants fans. And as much as Joe Shane gets shit on and as much people think Joe Shane landed this plane and I know money talks and I know that maybe Harbaugh wasn't going to have 10 other opportunities. But to get Harbaugh to agree to do this before meeting with Tennessee, which from all accounts we're going to offer him the world. Also no state income taxes, no pressure. Cam Ward could have been an opportunity that was interesting. It was pretty cool to watch this in real time from a media standpoint and not the usual players who, who are saying, here's what the latest is like. Ian o' Connor dusted off the old notebook and was like, all right, I'm gonna be up till one in the morning working on this. Paul Schwartz from the New York Post was like, I'm gonna be on this. It had a kind of old school chase to it. And from the journalism standpoint, from the spotlight or from whatever it was like, all right, there is a place for media in this. And those Giants beat reporters did a great job on this one.

[A]

And there was a piece about, I read on Sports Illustrated about the dinner in the wine cellar in East Rutherford Restaurant House. You would have liked it. They went off the menu with the dinner.

[C]

Oh, you know how I feel about off menu.

[A]

Some stuff that wasn't normally on the menu. I, I think the Harbaugh thing's fine. We'll see. We'll see how it goes. He's hitting that mid-60s. It's another young team. And if he had trouble clicking with the young Ravens, I don't know why that would change with the Giants. So the Tomlin thing was way more interesting to me because he's younger. I think he's a better coach than Harbaugh and I think there are real reasons why he didn't suc Basically stemmed to the fact that he. They threw away the quarterback position for seven, eight years, ever since Big Ben started to fall apart. I guess the question with that one is he seemed to discount the quarterback position and never really even, like, when they could have drafted Jackson Dart. Like there was stuff in the draft they could have done.

[B]

I.

[A]

It feels to me, House, like he need. He just needed a break. I'm excited to have him on tv. I don't know if he's going to be as good as everybody seems to think he's going to be on tv. I reserve judgment because I think he's coming back to the league. Those guys always scare me when it's like, I'll do tv, but I don't want to be too hard.

[C]

And.

[A]

But what. What's your dream scenario for Tomlinhaus?

[C]

Well, TV for sure. This upcoming season. God, we need that. And, and, you know, we did a draft, Cousin Sal, and yeah. And, you know, the possibilities range from, you know, the new head of the Defense Department, Department of War, all the way to Fox. And I think Fox is probably where he'll. He'll. He'll land. But honestly, bs you just raised a point that I am fascinated by. And I have to ask Pete, because Tomlin will never tell the truth. What was going on in the front office of the Pittsburgh Steelers over the last decade? Mike Tomlin didn't miss out on drafting Jackson Dart. It wasn't 100% his decision. How the only quarterback they drafted was a tiny person with tiny hands. Why did they do that? And how have they missed over. Like, there's been good quarterbacks for eight years now.

[B]

Yeah, but they were in quarterback, you know, purgatory because of the draft spot. They never had that top 10 pick. So when they took Kenny Pickett at 20, it was like, all right. Like, he watched Pickett every day at practice because they share a facility with the University of Pittsburgh. There was a comfort level there. But I don't. I can't blame him. Now. Look, they had 20th pick, I think this year in the draft. They passed on him. They took a defensive lineman, but, yeah, they passed on Jackson Dart Shador, Tyler Shuck. Like, could they have taken one of those guys? Sure.

[A]

Tyler Shuck was a tough on that. I mean, he went to the 40th pick. Yeah.

[B]

But I think in his heart of hearts, they knew they were all in. And I had a good feeling that he had an assurance that Aaron Rodgers was the quarterback this year. So again, I.

[C]

That's fine. They could still take shock.

[A]

I mean, how about Terrell Edmonds over Lamar Jackson?

[B]

All these are fair.

[A]

I just felt like, I know he wasn't in charge of it, but he also had an immense amount of power. I'm sure they didn't want him to leave the last five years. And at some point you got to slam your fist down and be like, I can't do this again with shit quarterbacks. Like, what are we doing, guys? Help me out.

[B]

What's interesting is the stuff that came out afterwards is that he handed his papers and he said, I'm done. He walked away. And it sounds like the Steelers were willing to run it back maybe one more year and have that conversation. So. Whereas Harbaugh was flat out fired by Steve Bishotti, who, by the way, the best hour press conference I've ever seen give and we don't have enough of him on television. He should be on a microphone more. But that said, where. That's a firing, this one. Tomlin gets his papers in and says he'll do it. And he goes out with dignity and he tells the team. And you get the story today that he. Everyone was crying and standing ovation, the whole thing. He's got two more years left on that contract. And as pleasant and as amicable as that was, the Steelers are a business and they're not just going to let him go anywhere. So he's going to have to sit out at least one year. And then next year there has to be a trade to get him. Now he was making more than $20 million a year to be the Steelers head coach, and he's got two more years left on that.

[A]

So, like, it's a.

[B]

He's walking away in a place where I don't. I don't think he wanted to hear the noise anymore. I think he wanted a break. I think he wanted to have a fresh start. And the media deal, I worked obviously with Sean Payton the one year he was away. You know, Mike McCarthy and I did the draft together this year when he was away. And it's amazing that these guys still, like, when Peyton was gone for that year, he might not have said too many vitriolic things or done. Made. Gone viral. But, like, watching games with him, like, he is just. He was just peppering everybody in that green room. What are your thoughts on Bryce Young? What are your thoughts on Justin Herbert? Do you think that Chargers job would be open? Like, he spent that whole year navigating the landscape and getting as much. What do you think of David Tepper? Is that a guy I could work with what do you think of that? Like, those were the questions. I would imagine if Tomlin takes a year off, next year will be a fact finding mission and he will be the Mike Vrabel hire of next season where he was away for a year and now he will have all the information he wants.

[A]

So should I have done this after I left ESPN house? Take a year, just taking a year and just done the Fox Sunday NFL show. Just branch on those guys and been like, I don't know what I, I don't know what I have long term yet.

[B]

Steak dinners.

[A]

It just sounds great.

[C]

Four years worth.

[A]

It's basically like a gap year. You, you're like, honestly, I feel like.

[C]

You owe me because that I would have been, I would have invited myself to at least two thirds of the courtship. I mean, scarcity is the, is the most valuable sort of attribute. Right. And, and, and look at the coaching cycle we're in right now. There's still, what, six jobs to get filled? Eight, eight, eight.

[B]

And there's not exactly Ben Johnson and Mike Frable on the market. And we're talking about teams are going to be fighting over Jeff Halfley and Jesse Minter. No offense to those guys, but that's where we're at. Also, I would add with the gap year and the year away, Bashadi said something interesting. He said to John Harbaugh, hey, you're 63, you like to travel. Your wife, you guys are in your 60s and your daughter's in her 20s at law school. Use this year because five years from now, when you're 68 or 10 years from now, when you're 73, you won't be able to travel like you want to. You won't want to do these things. Tomlin walking away now, perfect time, come back refreshed and truly already will be the bell of the ball for the next head coaching opening.

[A]

It's tough because if you're a Steelers fan, hard to feel good about the rest of the decade, right? Tom is like, okay, guys, I'll see you later.

[B]

It went all in this year.

[A]

Yeah. This is like the guy selling the house that he knows that there's all kinds of shit in the basement and there's black mold in the bedroom and, and the neighbors are about to do construction and there's 90 things that are about to happen. And he's just like, I'm out. I wish everybody the best.

[C]

Thank you.

[A]

And he's just gone. I'll be interested to see where he goes. Not just, what do you think TV was For tv.

[B]

What do you think?

[A]

Well, first of all, we have too many people on every show to begin with. So it's not like, oh man, they need one more person on this show. I do think Fox could use, could.

[C]

Could, could maybe use a little Botox in injection.

[A]

I thought Fox was pretty brutal this year. I didn't really understand. I know Shregs, I know you Shriggs is gonna say this is tough for Shregs, but I just, I feel like the mix is, is kind of gotten stale on the Fox show. So I think that would help NBC.

[B]

When Jamie left, NBC was a coaching seat.

[A]

Well, NBC, I think the Sunday night.

[B]

Show, you know, NBC is interesting because then you could do the whole big announcement at the Super bowl with 50 million people. You could roll out Tomlin. Oh, we got the Olympics. We're going to bring Tomlin to Milan. Like he's going to be the shiny new toy for a little bit too.

[A]

But most times they go in the studio, whereas I actually enjoy it more if they knew how to do the games. And I know that games are really hard to just get thrown into, but I think that would be really fun to hear him break down different stuff. Well, it's, this is, we've talked about this every time this happens. The, the Pat Riley NBC factor of you just grow in stature in the year off. By the time it's 12 months from now, it just seems like you're the biggest prize imaginable. Maybe House's commander's job will be open by then.

[C]

Well, I don't want to divert us too much, but this Brian Flores defensive coordinator thing really has my attention.

[B]

You like it?

[C]

And would that be a head coach in waiting potentially if this Washington team does not perform up to 6?

[A]

But they just got rid of. They just parted ways with Cliff because they felt like, hey, can we have people who are going to be here for a few years? Why would you then hire Flores for one year?

[C]

Oh, no, no. It would be for longer than one year because he's the next head coach.

[B]

That's not awkward or anything.

[A]

Yeah, that doesn't. Come on House.

[B]

What do you think of 30 year old David Blau, who's never called a play at any level?

[C]

I'm not worried about that because we have lots of evidence, you know.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Every one of the most successful young offensive minded coaches in the NFL were here in Washington. It's true at one point. And they were all young, they were David's age. So let's go ahead and take a swing.

[B]

I've Gotten to know him a little bit. He's, I mean significantly younger than me, which is alarming. But like I don't think anyone expected him to be an offensive coordinator, but he is outstanding and like is one of those guys. Him and Davis Webb, who we both, we all watched are both like these like quarterback whisperers now. And they're basically saying Jaden and him had a great relationship. Let's just elevate him and let's go.

[C]

It's great.

[A]

Listen. After Con canipple comes in age 20, does the BS pod for 75 minutes. Like everything's just happening younger and faster these days. 30 year old coach sounds great.

[C]

They all grow up quickly.

[A]

Yeah, everybody. Maybe it's the Internet gets everybody.

[B]

Can I, can I use that to, to throw out a name for the Cleveland job that's getting a lot of heat right now.

[A]

Before you. Hold on. Before you do that.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

I can't think of anything worse than the Cleveland job. I would rather not have a head coaching job. I would rather just pass. Why do you say that?

[C]

That's not true.

[A]

Because I think they're terribly owned. I think they have not figured out their quarterback situation at all. They have this Deshawn thing hanging over them and I just think that there's seven other teams I would rather be for the next five years in the AFC hands down. Without even blinking. How am I going to turn things around in Cleveland? Good luck. Go ahead. The.

[B]

I know there's a lot of former Browns employees who listen to this podcast. They're grinning right now at that, that whole comment.

[A]

That's not why I did it. No, no, no, no. Who's the worst franchise than them two years ago they had one year out of 13 years where they were competent. Congratulations.

[C]

Still a good defense.

[B]

What I would, what I would say is we're talking about the young. Like that's the team that goes and swings for that super young coach because there are no expectations next year. They have this really good rookie class. Whether you like Shador or not, he's part of it. But besides him, it's Schwessinger and it's Fanning and it's Judkins and they got all these guys and it's a blank slate. So the two, the two names that are getting a lot of buzz with them and comes from good sourcing. Grant Udinsky, 30 year old offensive coordinator of the Jaguars and Nathan Schill, House, no relation to Joe House, who is the like number three on that Rams offense, who's 35 years old and used to coach at Iowa State. So like those two guys might not get a look anywhere else, but they might be the next head coach of the Browns. Or they just go super young and say, screw it, let's just, let's just go with like a young, fun vibe. And by the way, Watson's. Watson stuff falls off the books after next season too. So there's a silver lining to all this. At some point.

[A]

Honestly, I'd rather hire Mike McDaniel than any of those dudes he interviewed. Well, thing you could really talk yourself into if you stare at it long enough because Tua was just not a quarterback that you could do anything with on top of all the injuries they had the last couple of years. And it was a weird situation to begin with. I would rather, at least there was some proven stuff happening with him with DJ Mikey Mack spinning his tracks.

[B]

Let me ask you guys because this was a good debate I had with someone today. Would you rather be the head coach of like the Cardinals or the Browns? Or would you rather if you're Mike McDaniel or you're Cliff Kingsbury? There are so many amazing offensive coordinator jobs open right now. So Detroit's offensive coordinator job is open, Philadelphia's, Tampa's. Are you better suited going to one of those teams with an established quarterback, the Chargers with Justin Herbert crushing it for a year, or do you say, you know what, a head coaching job only comes around so often. I gotta take a head coaching job because I don't know if anyone's gonna have to choose between the two. But there's a lot to like about those coordinator positions and there's so many negatives to some of these head coaching jobs.

[A]

I have a take on this, but House, let's say you're a 32 year old, you're not a red hot coordinator, but you're definitely respected and you're in the interview process. Would you grab the first head coach job that you could get and talk yourself into it or would you play the long game and try to build your build, basically build your, your fortitude for a year from now, basically, versus like grabbing something.

[C]

Yeah, the, the, the credibility, the quals. Yeah, I, I, I absolutely adore the Detroit opportunity. I think that's amazing. And that would be my absolute number one first choice.

[A]

I agree with that.

[C]

Or reservation.

[B]

Yeah, like Arizona, head coaching job with no question, with doubts at quarterback.

[C]

But here's the thing, Shrigs, no quarterback. Who's the quarterback? Who plays quarterback for the Cardinals?

[A]

Can I be new coach? Conciliary for a second.

[C]

Yeah, please, let's do that. That's fun.

[B]

This is good.

[A]

Who's your quarterback? Who's your owner? That's it. You can figure out everything else. But if you. If you're 0 for 2 with those two things, I'm out. Arizona, who's been a fucking bigger disaster than them, other than Cleveland. Right. Arizona. It always goes wrong with them.

[C]

Jets would like to be included in the conversation.

[A]

I'm saying out of the ones that are available, the jets have a coach, at least for the next couple of years.

[C]

Raiders are kind of interesting.

[A]

Yeah. But I would much rather have the Raiders job because at least I have a quarterback in that scenario. Right.

[B]

And I have an owner, assuming Mendoza.

[A]

Yeah. At least I have somebody that I can talk myself into.

[C]

Okay. Okay.

[A]

And Mark Davis, who's been a bad Raiders owner, but he's been a good WNBA owner. It's not like he's completely incompetent. Whereas the Browns. And he spends. And you know, when he hired Pete Carroll a year ago, we were like, that makes sense. Pete Carroll. Maybe he can recap.

[B]

Kelly, that's great.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

We thought G and Gino like that. That was a good risk, a good gamble.

[A]

Yeah. So I look at it like, I just wouldn't do those organizations unless they had this awesome quarterback. I'd be afraid to do the Tennessee one too, because I think they're a.

[B]

Oh, I think their quarterback is good.

[A]

But you have good. That's what I mean. Yeah. So with that one. It's a QB organization. All right. I can talk myself into Cam Ward. I'm sure Harbaugh probably heard stuff about the organization that made him be like, oh, I'll do this Giants thing. Biggest, longest NFC franchise we have. Right. Them or the Bears. Who's been around longer? Those two Packers. I'm talking out of my ass now.

[B]

How do you rate the.

[C]

How do you rate the Dolphins?

[B]

Good question.

[A]

I think that's a bad job. Right? That same thing. Organization, qb. Well, I don't have a qb. Steve Ross has been. Not as bad as the Browns owners, but he's in the running.

[B]

They've never won a playoff game.

[A]

Yeah, they haven't won a playoff game. Century. So you're going to just walk in as a 30 year old guy with no QB and turn that around? Probably not. I'd rather go to Detroit, build my shit up like Ben Johnson did and then wait to strike. For the. For the. Like, what's. If you're 30 versus when you're 32? Like what's the difference? Think about the guys. Like, what was that guy? Rob Chadzynski? Yeah. Who took that Browns job? The Browns couldn't find a coach and like, ah, all right, this guy. That guy's career was over after that. Like nobody was hiring him after that. I wouldn't want to be that. I wouldn't want to be like, this is a career ender that I took this job. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The divisional round. I call it round two, where the NFL's best takes center stage. And with everything on the line, FanDuel is turning on playoff mode. More boosts means more way to level up your playoff bets and all customers are getting a profit boost pack every NFL playoff game day waiting for you right in the app. FanDuel makes it fast, easy and fun to get in on the playoff action. When your bet wins, you will get paid instantly. So visit fandom.combs and grab your profit boost pack every NFL playoff game day. You must be 21 + President select states or 18 + in President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in Required bonus issued as non withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply including any token expiration max wager amount. See [e-mail], gamprom call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Chattinconenetic this episode is brought to you by LinkedIn. If you've ever hired for your small business, I've done this once upon a time. You know how important it is to find the right person. That's why LinkedIn Jobs is stepping things up with their new AI assistant so you can feel confident you're finding top talent. Post your job for [e-mail] Simmons that's me. Then promote it to use LinkedIn Jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates. That's LinkedIn.com Simmons to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply.

[B]

So each franchise is different. I've spoken to a lot of these candidates who are interviewing for them and it's funny, they're all on Zoom right now until they can meet in person. Unless they're fully out of a job. And like, I guess I haven't like Brady's very involved with the Raiders one. Oh, I think I'm allowed to say that like Brady is. He was at this fanatic cell phone.

[A]

Cell phone calls from a St. Bart's yacht from a fanatics event.

[C]

He's at Bakers.

[B]

Yeah, but this fanatics event at the Intuit Dome.

[A]

I'm talking to Alex Cooper. I have to call you back.

[B]

Alex. Earl late. And then all of a sudden he's, you know, he's on a zoom, you know, and he's very engaged and dialed into very engaged. That was interesting.

[A]

I'm glad he's engaged. He owns a part of the team.

[B]

He's leading the interviews.

[A]

All right.

[B]

He's playing a big role. I was like, all right, so what's Aikman's role in Miami? Well, once they hired the gm, apparently John Eric Sullivan, who's the Packers GM or was the packers number two, is now their GM and he's running the show. But Aikman's on these calls also. The, you know, it's. Each team is different, like who's in the room and who's got the voice. So I think owner and leadership and corporate structure and org chart are almost more important than quarterback. Like we'll figure all that stuff out. But give me a stable franchise where I know who I'm reporting to and I have some sort of base. Like that to me is almost more important than the quarterback.

[A]

So would you say the Giants are a stable franchise?

[B]

I would. Because it's family owned and those guys.

[A]

So stable but incompetent.

[B]

Potentially the last couple. Yes. They. They've not had. They've not been competent the last few years.

[A]

10 plus years is incompetent. They went to the plus a lot.

[C]

Of swings and misses.

[B]

They went to the playoffs three years ago and won a playoff.

[A]

They went for that 8, 8 and 1 or something that year.

[C]

I got it.

[B]

Come on.

[A]

Come on, Triggs. So House, you're with me on what organization? QB. If I'm over 2, no way.

[C]

I feel like we've had this conversation already.

[A]

So the wa. The Washington job from two years ago I think has become more interesting because House ends up with Dan Quinn and Jaden Daniels, right? Coach and QB spot available in that draft. Pat's end up with Vrabel and Drake May, who easily could have both been the Washington picks. And then you have Ben Johnson who ends up a year later getting matched with Caleb, but potentially could have had the Washington job. It's like, like you could write a book about how all these like sliding doors, right?

[B]

They were on the airplane.

[C]

Oh, they were. That's right.

[B]

And they read on Twitter an Adam Schefter report that he was withdrawing his name and they landed in Detroit and Found out that, oh wait, he's actually going back to Detroit and they flew back home.

[A]

I mean, that could be Detroit. You could have Ben Johnson and Drake May right now. It's just weird. There's all these variables where it's like weird.

[C]

You know what the difference between those teams and quarterbacks is in Washington. Washington played in the NFC championship game last year. So I'm okay. I'm pretty good.

[A]

Amazingly worked out for everybody. Ben Johnson waits a year, ends up with Caleb, becomes a cult hero in Chicago if they win this game this weekend, probably doesn't have to buy a drink again for the next couple years. I think he's had a profound impact on Caleb.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

I based that just studying the locker room speeches and the demeanor about everybody. Yeah, the last one was one of the best ones last week f the packers. And then the Vrabel thing was a miracle that nobody hired that guy for a year. And the Pat signed up with him.

[B]

He was with Cleveland last year.

[A]

Yeah, just like, what was that coaching special or something?

[B]

No one thought to hire him the year before. Like, it's. It's actually amazing.

[A]

So worst job is what? Cardinals.

[B]

Cardinals is tough. Cardinals is tough. That's an uphill battle in a lot of ways.

[A]

You're in a division with the Rams, Niners, Seahawks. You have no quarterback.

[B]

Facilities are not. Facilities are not what the other teams have. Like, you're dealing with Jed York, who spends like no tomorrow. Stan Kroenke, one of the richest men in America, and then that Seattle franchise with the, you know, the Allen family money, which is just insane. So it's an uphill battle from the start.

[A]

You think the Cardinals, do you think they feed people on the team charter or is it one of those like just chips and spring water and soda?

[C]

I mean, that's. That was the Dan Snyder playbook.

[A]

Yeah, that's one of the things they do. This is one of my favorite things, like finding out like the cheap owners, like some of the tricks they do.

[B]

Or if you want to, if you want a T shirt, you have to. They take it out of your paycheck. That kind of stuff.

[A]

Yeah, or like the one less bus where it's like some teams will have like a lot of buses and the other ones you're like crammed onto the bus. Like you can cut, cut corners every single way. I think the Cardinals job and the Browns job are tied for worse. I kind of like the Vegas job.

[B]

I do too.

[A]

Yeah, I think, you know, the fourth place schedule next year, the Chiefs are going to Be a mess, who knows.

[B]

What about the Atlanta job?

[A]

What do you think? I love the Atlanta job. You like the Atlanta job too?

[B]

Why do you love the Atlanta job?

[A]

Because I think they have a lot of good players. I really thought that was the best team that didn't make the playoffs.

[C]

The funniest thing about the Atlanta job is that we basically have to say something nice about the quarterback situation for that to be as appealing as we.

[B]

Just talked about it. Right?

[C]

We intuit that that's an appealing job because of all of the talent on both sides of the ball. But they're going into the season with who playing corset?

[A]

I think Penix is a write off. I know.

[C]

Isn't that insane?

[A]

Pennix is a write off.

[B]

So you'll appreciate this because I know you guys love the corporate, like how this all. Okay, so Raheem Morris thinks he's keeping his job. They lose that game, he ends up getting fired afterwards, everyone's shocked. It turns out that that was weeks in advance. They'd already hired a consultancy fir already done all the work. Now this consultancy firm, it's called Sportsology, they gave Arthur Blank like a book of recommendations on how he should build his franchise, how the corporate org chart should be, all this stuff. And then Arthur Blank is like, you know what? I want Matt Ryan involved. Matt Ryan and I was involved. They do an interview for a couple other guys, but it was really Matt Ryan's job, head of football operations. And now it sounds like Matt Ryan's the loudest voice that's going to be deciding all this stuff.

[A]

And it's like, it's just honestly nuts. I mean, the Brady thing is nuts too. These guys have never had any sort of organizational anything. They were just quarterbacks.

[B]

But they've been there. They know, they know the franchise inside and out. They know the market.

[A]

You know, it's, they were the, they're.

[C]

That I, I, I'm less dismissive than you, Bill.

[B]

You're the same guy who hates the.

[A]

Blue shirt khaki pants mafia that you work for.

[C]

What's that?

[B]

You know what that is, right, Phil?

[A]

Yeah, it's middle managers. Yeah, the middle managers at the former Giant company I used to work for.

[B]

At the, I don't even know if it's that company. It's any company.

[A]

Middle managers, they just show up in waves like coyotes wearing blue shirts and khaki pants.

[C]

Office space.

[A]

And they have generic notes for everybody. Hey guys, here are generic notes.

[C]

You missed work yesterday. I will say I missed that.

[B]

So now you got Troy Aikman and Tom Brady and, you know, Matt Ryan, who are like, I actually have done it.

[A]

It's.

[B]

I actually respect that, too.

[A]

It's like, Matt Ryan, you've been on the set of CBS for the last two years. We need your thoughts on how to rebuild our football organization from top to bottom. Come on in. Here are the car keys. Please tell us what to do. I don't understand. I don't think this is that hard. Like, the fact that Vrabo was sitting there for an extra year, I almost feel it's probably like us with the Ringer 107 picks house. We just stare at too much information and the brain breaks. And you can't just step away from it and look at stuff logically and be like, I'm taking Trevor Lawrence against Josh Allen. What am I doing?

[C]

I'm gonna. I have to ask Pete. Did the Titans put out some. Some bad words about. Did they let you know, some whispers? Because that there was acrimony that led to that split. And Vrabel was always the. You know, we. We understood from our side of things. It seemed like he was the one that. That should have outlived that situation.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

In hindsight. In hindsight.

[C]

Well, not even in hindsight. In. In real time.

[A]

Let me speak first. Shriggs is reporting that. I don't know if he wants to do or not, but he's a big, outsized personality, alpha, and some people don't want that in the building. I don't think Washington did either. Like, you get that guy. That's like your guy. Your whole. The whole culture is coming from him. The Patriots don't care because they had no culture. Their owners, 85. Yeah. And they're like, well, they know him. Take this.

[C]

He was there.

[A]

Yeah. And they knew him. Whereas, like, Washington.

[C]

Why did you mention Washington?

[A]

Because Washington hired Peters. They had the new ownership.

[C]

And Tears and Braids could have coexisted.

[A]

No, but they didn't necessarily. They didn't necessarily need the awesome. They were together, but they didn't necessarily need the one man culture show. They wanted to do, like, this group. Group thing where a bunch of people are in and Dan Quinn.

[B]

Don't get it twisted. Survival for these executives is always in the equation. And it's why Belichick got one interview. And it's why, you know, a Vrabel isn't for everybody, because you're handing the keys over to Vrabel. And I give Elliot Wolf, who preceded Mike Vrabel as a gm, a ton of credit for saying, you Know what? Bring it on. Yeah, like this could save my job also if we start winning because at the end of the day it won't. And then today, you know, Joe Shane could have very easily argued for a 33 year old defensive coordinator because that means he's going to be the biggest voice in the room. Joe Shane is no longer the biggest voice in the room, but knows what's best for the franchise is to hand the keys over to a 63 year old and he's going to say, I'll do my job the best I can, but this is the new face of the franchise.

[A]

Well, he wouldn't have had a voice if he didn't go for that. Can I just read you Bob Kraft's house? You know, way you saw this, Bob Kraft gave an interview a couple days ago and one of the things he talked about was Gerard Mayo's firing. And he said he was talking about how tough it is. And he said, I would say that was one of the one or two hardest decisions I've had to make because the fire guy, after one year, and by the way, it was very expensive because it was not only his contract, but 25 other coaches. It's the worst financial implications since we've owned the team. Oh, I'm sorry, Bob Kraft. You're like a freaking multibillionaire. The team's worth $8 billion. You print money. We spent 50 million unspent money this year. You're complaining because you hired the wrong coach. You had to fire him. I love Bob Kraft. Thank you for bringing us six Super Bowls, but come on, you can't complain about how expensive it was. You're the fucking owner. You've printed money from this team for 30 years.

[B]

Just stop.

[A]

We're gonna take a break and we're gonna go through the four games. We only have four. Let's go. We have some great subplots. I can't wait to talk about them. So quick break. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain. Sure, they're both captains, but who's going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team. So don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help you need, State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This episode is brought to you by Velveeta. Game day is all about the tailgate spread. Listen, if you're going to have friends over, you absolutely 100% have to have a lot of things for them to eat. Everyone gets hungry. They can say they're not going to eat. But guess what? If you lay out the right kind of spread and you have some good cheesy creamy melty dip with some good crackers, some chips, they're probably going to eat it. So why not do creamy shells and cheese melty Velveeta blocks and cheesy jarred quesos?

[B]

I don't know.

[A]

Why wouldn't you? They're taking down one taste bud at a time. Do yourself a favor. Stock up on Velveeta before kickoff, all right? We'll go through the games in order. Fellas. Same scenario as last week with the Bills, who are now one one point, five point underdogs in Denver. And this all comes down to what is your appetite for betting against Josh Allen? Last week it seemed like a great idea. I stand by the pick. I feel like Jacksonville lost the game in the first half, but there hit a point in that game where every third and seven you just felt like Josh Allen was getting it and it felt really dumb to bet against them. So, House, why is this different this week? Why would this be different in Denver?

[C]

Because Sean Payton is not Liam Cohen. I mean, honestly, the thing that we missed in the handicapping of that Jacksonville game is we. We did not spend enough time thinking through.

[A]

We're.

[C]

We're so dismissive of McDermott. I think somewhat justified, like the touchdown with a minute left that gave the other team the ball back with a chance to tie. Probably not the best decision in the highest leverage moment. So. And he's got a lot of those on his resume. But respectfully, respectfully, because I am a huge Liam Cohen fan, he just wasn't up to it. I mean, you know, he botched the play calling and that Jacksonville team did exactly what we asked of them. Go run down Buffalo's throat. Keep doing it. Never stop. Run, run, run, run, run, run, run. And instead, we're giving the ball to Trevor Lawrence now. Good. I'm glad that we're continuing to build him up. He is your franchise quarterback. Next season they should be good again. But it's the playoffs, motherfucker. It's time to go win the football game. Take advantage of your advantage. The advantage was the run game and they didn't bite down hard enough on it and they lost because of that, in my humble opinion.

[A]

So that's the question for me. Shrags, what do we do we throw out the result last week because Jacksonville screwed the game up? Or is Buffalo in 2006 Pats mode where they somehow made the AFC title game with Brady and Rache Calderwood and Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson and Lawrence Moroney. And it's just like, how did this happen? I look at the Bills who now are down to Shakir. Brandon Cooks who was in the league six weeks ago. Samuel who just came off ir banged up.

[B]

Kincaid, I think McColl, Hardman. I saw.

[A]

Yeah. And. And Dawson Knox. Running backs, shavers out.

[B]

No Gabe Davis.

[A]

Gabe Davis out. And. And now they're missing two safeties and no Poyer. You know, Harrison, honestly, House, the line should be Broncos by three. And you're getting a point and a half just because of Josh Allen. And it sucks to bet against Josh Allen. That's it. I can't think of another reason other than Bo Nix just shitting the bed in this game, which is the other thing you have to think about with Denver. Oh shit. I took Bo Nix against Josh Allen. Why did I do that?

[B]

I also. I saw a good. And they were underdogs to start the week. Now they're favored. They were the first number one seed in the AFC ever in the divisional round to be an underdog at home. They are the second ever since. And the only other one is The Eagles in 2017, who Carson Wentz had just gone down with the knee injury. So no one believed in Foles. There's no reason that the Broncos should have ever been underdogs. Now they're favored by a point or whatever. The disrespect is out of this world for Bo Nix. And you got to think full two weeks, but really three weeks because of that week 17, that week 18 game.

[A]

Trey Lance. Yeah, that was an exhibition game and.

[B]

Resting home field advantage out of control. Besides the Jacksonville game, they didn't lose at home. So on paper. And they've got a Super bowl winning head coach and Sean Payton, who is a master motivator and doesn't let these guys take their foot off the pedal.

[A]

And they're. And they're healthy.

[B]

And they're all healthy healthy.

[A]

So it seems like their biggest problem is like Patrick certain is awesome. Who do we put him on? There's nobody left on the Bills, right? How do we use disadvantage? We don't even have a number one receiver to throw him on.

[B]

I say all this and I'm with you because you and I rode the Mahomes train all those other years in the playoffs and it was always the right move. This guy is superman and it's his time and he's been knocking on the door for years and the path is clear. I can't pick against him. Dude.

[A]

Wow. Wow.

[C]

I mean we can get from triggers I was expecting.

[A]

I spent a year with Sean Payton and this guy's built for this moment. Nope, didn't do it at all.

[C]

I mean, you know the game plan. The, the Bills just have to be close in the fourth quarter and then let Josh just hang around. That's it. That's the game plan.

[A]

Alan.

[B]

It's a fun game.

[A]

Allen has five playoff losses, four to Mahomes, one to Deshaun Watts, someone who's good.

[B]

Wild card round.

[C]

That was an oversight early in his career.

[A]

It was like baby Josh, crazy lateral.

[C]

An all timer.

[A]

My fears for this game from the Denver side, other than Josh Allen, I thought there was some weird game management stuff with Peyton this year. As good of a coach as he is and I think culture, setter, motivator, all that stuff. There was some over aggressiveness at times. Some just kind of do the thing you should be doing to me. Like I love RJ Harvey. 90 plus yards rushing in this game is plus 400 on FanDuel. After watching that Jacksonville game where they should had 200 plus yards in that.

[B]

Game, I think they averaged 7 yards a carry.

[A]

Just like, just feed RJ Harvey, have Bo Nicks doing some design rollouts. Like just fucking run and keep the ball and don't let Josh Allen have it and have these long ass drives. Then on top of it, no safeties. Cortland Sutton, 30 yard pass reception plus 195. I like him hitting one. I think Denver's just, it would have to be a collapse on their part combined with Josh late, right? So it'd have to be like that Jaguars game where it's halftime. You're like fuck, they blew it. They, they left all the shit in the table. Now I know where this is going.

[B]

They've also, like Chicago, have won a ton of one score games in miraculous fashion. And as we've seen time and time again, sometimes that that stuff wears down towards the end of the season and it doesn't happen in the playoffs. So you know they've won all these games. They were winning at home. That Jaguars loss was real. They got beaten in their building. And a lot of these guys, they're young still now. They played Buffalo in the playoffs last year. Bo Nix threw for 140 yards and completed 55% of his passes. But that was in Buffalo. Totally different circumstances. I don't know, is it their time.

[A]

Might be or it's not Broncos? Yeah, I mean that's.

[C]

This is the fascinating piece of it to me. Right? The, the. If they run, then they don't need very much from. From Bo Nix. And if the Bills play their, their standard like, you know, too high and they take away the explosives and they throw the. The. The skies coverages. Right.

[B]

I mean.

[C]

Cause McDermott is a good defensive coordinator.

[B]

Bobby Babich is there is calling the D and like he's really good too.

[C]

Yeah. Like they'll. They. They can throw a defense at Bo Nix that will sort of bottle him up. But if, if the Broncos can establish the run that you don't need very much out of Bo Nix. You just need them to really not turn the ball over.

[B]

Now, Bill, I heard you on with Sal and you said, you know, you're kicking yourself, but then again the outlier is the Eagles chief Super bowl last year where we all took Mahomes because we're like on paper it should be the Eagles. Did you not. You took Philly.

[C]

I took my homes.

[A]

And the lesson I learned from that is if literally the only reason I have is the quarterback and I don't want to bet against him, that's not a good enough reason.

[B]

Well, then you're taking Denver.

[A]

I think I'm leaning toward Denver. House, where are you leaning?

[C]

Unfortunately, I already bet on Denver. I like Denver. I understand exactly the harm that I'm putting myself in front of you and I have been terrible, terrible at this.

[A]

We. Everyone has a bad year from time to time.

[C]

I still don't think that our analysis of the Jacksonville situation was wrong and the packers one wasn't either.

[A]

We should have hit both of those.

[C]

I mean, we should have had a minimum been three and three across the six games. You had New England pegged perfectly.

[A]

Yeah, and then I threw the dumb under.

[C]

I know not to do that.

[A]

I know you did.

[C]

We. We took the. We had the Panthers figured out that was a good angle.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Stupid Packers. They had that game in in hand. But let's ask Shregs.

[A]

We.

[B]

We.

[C]

We moved on too quickly. Who is Green bay trading Matt LaFleur to and what will he fetch it in return? So he could be a head coach somewhere.

[B]

That's a good funny because he still doesn't have an extension. Now he's going into the final year of his contract, which none of these.

[C]

Guys still have an extension. Oh really?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Yeah. And they didn't.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

They didn't fire him, obviously.

[C]

Right. Because they can get something in trade.

[B]

New new president Skyd policy who's trying to put his imprint on things. And the truth of the matter is this. It's like they're talking about a deal. LaFleur is not one of the higher paid coaches. Like there are some head coaches in this league that have been hired in the last few years that make significantly more money than him. So he's got a point too. The question is, can we win without you or do we just suck it up and pay the extra 6, 7 million that you think you need? That's going to be one that they have decide. But it time is ticking. Like you're going to do this win. So I don't know. I think he stays, but I could be wrong.

[A]

All right.

[C]

All right.

[A]

House Bo Nicks, 25 plus yards rushing.

[C]

Love it.

[A]

Harvey 90 and the Denver money line. That's 12 to 1 as the same game part.

[C]

Let's go. That's it. That's how we're playing it. Well, I mean, we'll. I'll take the L. It'll be the second week of going against Josh Allen in the year that the AFC is the most wide open it's been in his entire career. And he is the best quarterback in that conference. And here we are going against him two straight weeks.

[A]

Oh, a weaker team than they were a week ago in a game they should have lost. He's more banged up than he was. I just can't. I don't think they have enough. I. This is disrespectful to Denver to think that somebody can go in there with Shakir and Cooks and Samuel. So the thing we didn't talk about was could James Cook actually cook in this game? Cause Jacksonville shut him down.

[B]

But Denver's defense is really good too.

[A]

Against the run and healthy. I just think this is a bad spot for Buffalo. And it's this to me, if I had to pick the narratives, Buffalo wins. The narrative is, oh my God, Josh Allen. This is your superhero. The other version is Denver just kind of controls the game, beats them, and then we turn into a. They're not doing right by Josh Allen and we do that whole thing.

[B]

Why didn't they get a wide receiver?

[C]

Yeah, why did.

[A]

This is their fault. They wasted a great John Allen. Josh Allen season. All right, so we're going to go Denver minus one and a half. I honestly think that line is. Is. I think this should be Denver by three.

[B]

Okay, then definitely take it minus one and a half if you can.

[A]

Next game, Seahawks seven over the depleted 49ers, who are just losing guys left and right and are under attack by electromagnetic rays at their practice facility.

[B]

Has an article ever gone more viral?

[A]

No. It's amazing. Kittle out. We've lost him. Trent Williams playing, but just as like, I'm just not healthy. I don't feel great at all.

[C]

Gave up six pressures last week.

[A]

Yeah, I'm just not doing good. Seattle two week rest. Well, major news today killed this team and yet Sam Darnold comes out of nowhere with a weird abdominal injury middle.

[C]

Of the day on a. On a Wednesday.

[A]

Thursday at practice. Come.

[C]

What are we.

[A]

Come on.

[C]

He's running with the theragun.

[B]

It's listed as an oblique. And Clint Kubiak said in his press conference, who's the offensive coordinator, that Drew Lock took a lot of snaps with the ones it's certainly. And I was with Orlovsky today in Bristol and I'm like, I don't know enough about like each injury. I'm like oblique. He's like horrible for a quarterback. Horrible. It hurts to run every throwing motion. Like it's. It's as bad as one of the arm injuries.

[A]

Like that's why we have drugs shrinks.

[B]

That's what I said. Is that. Is that something you can just shoot up?

[A]

That's why we have Toradol.

[C]

I don't know. In the rib. Can you get it? Oh, House.

[A]

I have a question for you. House.

[C]

Go ahead.

[A]

Sam Darnold versus Drew Locke. How much of a drop off is that for you? If I have a better defense, I'm just going to run the ball and I barely ask my QB to do anything.

[C]

So no joke. What do you think the line will be? Let's play guess the lines. What will the line be if Drew. Drew Lock is announced Saturday morning as the quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks?

[A]

I think it drops to Seattle. Four and a half.

[B]

Yeah, five and a half. Four and a half, sure.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

I think we go into the biggest.

[C]

Only a point and a half.

[A]

Yeah, like two and a half.

[C]

That's the difference between Darnold.

[A]

Because I don't think for this game. So one of my ideas. You'll love this, House. Was a parlay with this game.

[C]

I'm out. Go ahead.

[A]

Seattle moneyline under 49 and a half.

[C]

No, sir. No, no, thank you.

[A]

No, I mean the bet. I would really. We're not allowed to do this in the contest, but Seattle Moneyline with Kenneth Walker to rush for 60 plus yards plus 109.

[C]

Like.

[A]

Like that bet in general.

[C]

We'll bet that. I'm going to bet that I'm not the contest.

[B]

No. But in real life, yes.

[A]

I'm willing to be talked out of it over the next four minutes. I just don't want to take the Niners. I don't see it. I don't. I just can't believe how many injuries.

[C]

They had two weeks ago.

[A]

Yeah, I thought they got dominated. I thought that game should have been.

[B]

Like, 30 to 374 yards of offense. It was the least a Kyle Shanahan offense has ever had.

[A]

And by the way, if I'm Seattle and I'm their fans, like, this is it, man. This is now lined up to win the Super Bowl. Right?

[B]

But wait, look who they'd beat. They'd have to beat, let's say, hypothetically, their arch rival Niners and then their arch rival Rams in their building.

[A]

Like, absolutely beatable Rams. Team playing their third straight playoff road game. Right. A team that they know really well. And then afc, like, are they scared of any of those teams? Like, they have the best. They have the best unit of any. I sound like I'm a Seahawks fan. I'm just like. I just feel like this is laid out for them. They. They could easily fuck it up. But if I'm a Seahawks fan, I'm like, holy shit, we might be able to win the Super Bowl. Like, for real. Our defense could just dominate the Niners this round. We go to the next round. We got the Rams at home. Fine. And then we're going to play Bo Nix in the super bowl. Or, you know, this Pats team that has the youngest team in the league, or Josh Allen with no receivers. Like, I like my chances against anybody.

[C]

I want to try and make a case for San Francisco. I want to try. I want to see what you think about this. So, first of all, it's not like Kyle Shanahan and The San Francisco 49ers had an infinite amount of time to prepare for the Eagles defense, and yet he looked Vic Fangio right in the face and said, eat this, big boy. Robinson deep over the top twice in the first half. No. Nobody had him on the bingo card. You know, trick. Trick plays.

[B]

Reverse sky bang is what that play was called.

[C]

Yeah, I have some ideas for that one.

[A]

House is trying that tonight.

[C]

The circumstances are so upsetting.

[A]

Netflix just canceled us.

[C]

No, they encourage that. But the question is, he knows Mike McDonald very well now, right? He's very familiar with what Seattle's bringing to the table. He's seen it. They had over the course of the two games that they played 17 drives on offense that were non kneel downs. Of those 17 drives, nine of them reached in. They were inside the Seattle 40 yard line, 17 drives, nine of which landed inside the Seattle 40 yard line and they scored a grand total of 20 points over those those two games. Right? There were missed field goals, there was block field goal, there were turnovers all inside that 40 yard line. So there is a demonstrated ability for San Francisco to kind of get into the scoring zone, but they couldn't capitalize in any way, shape or form. Again, I'm just trying to make a case here to make sure that we're thinking it through.

[A]

There's a couple more manifesto rules here for this Beware of the Nobody Believes in Us team and that's the Niners and all flashing colors in neon. That's rule three. Rule six Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe they have a chance to win. I can see them winning. I don't think it's inconceivable because more because the Seahawks offense I could just see throwing a turd sandwich out there and it just being like a 10 to 7 game in the fourth quarter or something.

[B]

It was four months ago, but they beat the Seahawks in Seattle Week one. Yeah, they've done it.

[A]

I don't trust the se the Seahawks offense at all. Right. If you can just like limit JSN a little bit, then they're going to have to run the ball.

[C]

And they have been running the ball and they've been doing it successfully like the last four years.

[A]

That's the case.

[C]

They established the run.

[A]

That's why I like them heading into this podcast because I think they can run on the Niners. But then there's the when in doubt, gravitate toward the one pick that screws over the most gamblers and experts. That's a Seahawks tease or money parlay. That's the logical bet. Everyone has it. I might even have it right now. I might have already done it. But people are just like, oh cool, I can move the Seahawks down to one and then I'll do other stuff. And that makes me nervous.

[B]

Kyle Shanahan, to House's point, is a mad genius. And whether or not you think he's good in the late stages of a game or a Super bowl or a big spot, no one prepares and out schemes these defensive coaches better than Kyle. So you're banking on Kyle and Purdy, who's been outstanding the last few weeks with the Exception of the Seattle game. And you're just thinking that they're going to find a way again, this is not X's to nos. This is not. This is purely. You're betting on people and you're betting on Kyle Shanahan to out coach Mike McDonald and.

[A]

And you're betting on the nobody believes.

[B]

In us factor and the nobody believes in us. But I would say.

[A]

And there's one other thing you're betting on. Sorry to interrupt you. Yeah. The Mike McDonald. We've seen it a couple times. The underwear gets a little tight for him.

[C]

This is his first playoff game, right?

[A]

First playoff game.

[C]

It's like, first playoff.

[A]

I'll take the points and.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

I don't know if I 100% trust him. Anyway.

[B]

San Francisco heads playing completely free.

[A]

They. San Francisco's not wearing underwear anymore. They're just free balling it.

[C]

They're so you can tell Bobby Salas.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Swinging that. That baby maker every which way.

[A]

And they are. I don't think there's a more of a nobody believes in us team that we've had that might actually be able to back it up in a while.

[B]

And I would add, you know, they were pissed as hell at the league and by. When I tell you, furious at the league that they chose ratings and the thought of a Chicago and LA market.

[C]

Sunday night, it's fucking outrageous.

[A]

It's bad.

[B]

Doing what's right and what's fair and.

[A]

What seems to be integrity of the game, health and safety, all this stuff.

[B]

You would think you wouldn't want a team playing on six days when they can play. Another team gets eight days. So all that. But guess what? Jed York, John Lynch, Salah Shanahan, they get the players going. Hey, the league doesn't want us. The league doesn't think we're a big enough market team. They don't want us to be good. We're getting screwed again. We're getting screwed. And the players, they hear that, they respond and they galvanize. Now, whether or not that plays out on the field, that's a different question. But I know that the motivational tactics are at play here.

[A]

Well, and when you go back to that last game, Trent Williams didn't play in that game, right?

[B]

Nope.

[A]

Yep, Kittle played. But K's been in and out all year and they. I do feel like they can replace some of his production.

[C]

Pierce Angus is a student. Get every tongus. He's good now. Pierce.

[A]

Pierce.

[B]

All this week, they're hoping Pierce all goes. Fred Warner is not ready yet. He'll be ready. They're hoping next week.

[A]

I don't know, House, he might have won me over in this one.

[B]

Straight up or with the points?

[A]

No, the plus seven. I just.

[C]

We have to make a pick. I like this teams playing on a short week like the 49ers against a team off the bye 9 and 6 against the spread in recent memory, the third time playing.

[A]

I feel like that's always gets weird in some way. But I like the. I don't even think I mentioned this a couple weeks ago because I always text Danny and Mina about the Seahawks. I don't even think they fully trust the Seahawks like the people that have watched them week in, week out. I don't think they trust their offense. So you're throwing in this Sam Darnold abdominal thing that we know about on Thursday, which is like, okay, they're not going to need him that much, but they're still going to need him. We know he's hurt.

[B]

They play in 48 hours.

[A]

They play in 48 hours. It's clearly something not to be.

[B]

Not to be so obvious.

[C]

So number one seeds favored by seven or more, 21, 25 and one against the spread just could just keep doing it. I mean we could just keep pounding.

[A]

The and the part that I mentioned earlier that it is so lined up for Seattle, so lined up for the next couple weeks that it almost makes you nervous. Well, maybe we take the points for this next game. I have a featured bet and it's a Featured bet from FanDuel Sportsbook because they have turned playoff mode on. FanDuel's got it all. They have same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in lives, offers to boost your winnings every game day. And my Patriots are playing and they wanted me to do a three teamer same game parlay, which I happily obliged. Here's where I landed because obviously I have to have the Pats winning it and we'll talk about the game in a second. Ramon Dre Stevenson over two and a half receptions more and more as the season went along. He's gotten better as a receiver. Drake trusts him. There's a couple where he's like in trouble and he dumps it off to him. They'll have a design wheel route for him. I just feel like he's getting three. And then Drake for 225 plus passing yards. Everyone's terrified of this Texas defense after that Pittsburgh game. I have some thoughts on that. But anyway, that total price right now is +370. You can use your 30% SGP profit boost token. Get an even higher payout. Tail my bet. Trust me, don't throw away the last 19 weeks. Tail my bet. Make your own bet on another playoff game. The possibilities are endless during playoff mode with FanDuel. All right, Patriots favored by three. No Nico Collins.

[B]

It looks like likely out concussion protocol.

[A]

You can't have a concussion and play five days later. That's nuts.

[C]

I don't. It's like the playoff concussion protocol. Let's not do that. Let's not do that.

[A]

Here's where I became confident about the game. Guys, Josh McDaniel, a press conference this morning just raving about the Texans defense. These guys are. This the fastest defense we've seen all year. They don't make mistakes. We're going to need our best offensive game of the year to compete in this one. Just doing the. Just doing the butter up routine. I'm like, I don't believe that for a second.

[C]

I think I agree with all of that, by the way.

[A]

It's a zone team.

[C]

I think persuaded.

[A]

I think they think they could throw on them. And I just. I've seen them do this before. They rave about the other team and then they meanwhile have five things up their sleeve. I think they're going to be.

[B]

How does New England score on this Texans defense?

[A]

Bill Drake may.

[B]

Couple big deep shots to Boote.

[A]

We've seen the Texans get beaten by deep shots that happened in that Chargers game.

[C]

Yep. Riley Leonard.

[A]

We saw Rogers and Alec Pierce. We saw Rogers because a lot of times they're just rushing for. We saw Rogers with opportunities to run where he didn't because he's old Drake. They will run. And I just think the Pats are way better than the Steelers that that Steelers team. In hindsight, maybe we should have predicted this house when we actually made our picks. But the Ravens game was the super bowl for them. The moment they. And they still almost had a chance. It was seven, six. They still had a chance.

[C]

We weren't on the wrong side of the analysis. They just ran out of steam and.

[A]

Well, they just weren't good enough offensively.

[C]

They were not good enough. That's right.

[B]

I was pushing you guys hard to pick the Steelers that day for the Ravens game. I felt vindicated. And then I picked them again to beat the Texans and I felt like an idiot.

[A]

So the big issue with the Pats is the left side of the line and Campbell not being good. He's taking some heat. He got a little salty in an interview. But I also think that they can. There's stuff you can do. You can put an extra tight end on there. You can roll coverage away from Will Anderson. There's things in play. Shrags. What do you think?

[B]

I've seen the Texans defense up close now twice this season. Seattle for doubleheader, Monday Night Football. They lost the game, but they crushed Sam Darnold. I think they picked him off three times and they were in the backfield the entire game. And then I was at Monday Night Football. I am blown away by all three levels of this defense that I am going to give you the biggest hyperbole of all. This might be like the 2000 Ravens. They might not need to do anything on offense. They might just win games. 13, 10, 16, 13. They might. We might wake up, you know, the Monday after the super bowl and it's freaking Will Anderson on a float in Disneyland. Like, this defense is that good. They're that fast. And I just don't see how, you know, I just don't see how the Patriots score enough to beat them. And the only way they lose to the Patriots and I know they're a young team on the road playoffs, is that their quarterback holds them back and their offense just isn't good enough. And they give the ball away because if they just protect the ball. I think you're underestimating this defense in a serious way. I think it's historically good.

[A]

Definitely not underestimating. But my question is this Texans offense going against the Pats defense, which was really, really good last week and is healthy and is a different defense with Milton Williams? I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball in the pass at all. Is that going to be a worse matchup than Drake May, who's been one of the best players in the league all year, a really good offensive coordinator, playing at home, cold weather that they're used to. Houston plays in a dome. All of these other factors that go into it. The Houston defense would have to overcome all that. They were able to do it on Monday night, but that game, like Pittsburgh blew that game. They were no.

[B]

7, 6 in the third quarter.

[A]

Like Stroud was like, broken. What makes you think Stroud's not going to be broken this week? What do you think? Has.

[C]

It really comes down to how many plays do you think that Houston defense can make? Because I. I don't see a scenario under which Houston establishes any kind of offensive rhythm whatsoever.

[A]

The difference, especially without Collins. Agreed. It's like, oh, they're replaced with Christian Kirk. Christian Kirk has bounced around for three years. Get out of here.

[C]

We. I don't think we're properly rating the significance of Milton Williams. I mean I know you, Bill Simmons understand I've been saying it all year.

[A]

He left, but he left the defense and everyone could run on us.

[C]

Yeah. So. So when he's in the. In the lineup. 3.8 yards per carry for opposing running backs. That's the second best run defense in the NFL. At that rate, they give up 83 yards a game. The high running back rush when Milton Williams was in the lineup was 58 yards and he got hurt in that game. That's how that running back got to 58.

[A]

Yeah. Marks is over is 55 and a half and I think it's dropped four yards during the week.

[B]

He has a season ending injury every game and then just plays the next week. Yeah, then he's fine.

[C]

Right. You have to.

[B]

He.

[C]

He misses four carries because he's in the blue 10. Four to six carries.

[A]

And they have Chubb as the backup. I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball at all. And I think Stroud is going to be in a lot of trouble. Keep going House.

[C]

Well, that, I mean that's it. I just want to make the case for the New England defense and how the version of this defense. Gonzalez was a full participant in practice today. Thursday. Tonga is back. How do you say his name? Chris Kyrus. I don't know how to say it. Tonga. Tonga. The defensive. We call him Tonga. That's part of the, you know, the, the. The run defense as well. And I think that they can get a little bit of a pass rush going as well. They were in Justin Herbert's lap all game Sunday night.

[A]

They served out also shrag some manifesto rules this week and you just laid out one of my favorites. This is the number one rule. Beware of the looked a little too good the previous round team. This is textbook with the Texans D. Texans D was awesome all season. Right. It was one of the three bet they went up a level against this Pittsburgh team. That offensive line wasn't good. They didn't had Metcalf. That's about it. Rogers was slow. That's as good as. That's as good of a situation as they're probably going to get.

[B]

Texans offense was not good against the Bills. But they sacked Josh Allen I think nine times on a Thursday night.

[A]

It's Thursday night and they won. All right. That's one Chiefs.

[B]

Chiefs season on the line in Arrowhead. Texans offense Nothing special. Stroud made a couple plays. They eliminated the Chiefs with their defense. Like I this, the defense travels.

[A]

And what's interesting is defense travels but offensive lines do not travel. That sucks.

[B]

Fair.

[A]

And their line in the Steelers game didn't travel. It's not going to travel in New England.

[B]

I think there's also we look at those logos and I think you said this because I covered. I was in Foxborough for about three of these and the Texans always with Matt Schaub and with whoever else used to go up there to Foxborough in a divisional round game on a Saturday night and they just get the shit kicked out of him by the Patriots. And like we know that visual like it always happen. I would say this particular group of Texans, they have been to the final four of the AFC the last two years. So it's not like they're just this neophyte team that's going in with wide eyes like they've banged on the door. They took the Chiefs to the wire last year.

[C]

They did.

[B]

And the year before that they took the Ravens with Lamar to the wire and if it was for a couple plays they could have won that game. So they're not this group of just wide eyed guys that are like the old Texans where we don't belong on the same field as Brady. If anything they've got more experience than this pace Patriots team when it comes to big games.

[C]

I want to hear from BS the recipe on offense because part of the reason why I was bullish on the Chargers last week, the case I made, yeah, that defense was excellent and that was the first top 10 defense that the Patriots had faced in quite a while. Maybe the entire season depending on the metrics you want to use. Yeah. And this defense is an entirely different class altogether. Like one of the props that I'm already on is drake may over 35 and a half rushing yards. I don't know if it's going to still be there.

[A]

I like that one.

[C]

It might go even further. Up 40, of course. And those scramble yards are what were really the only thing available to Aaron Rodgers. But the problem for the Patriots is because Houston doesn't blitz. And they don't have to blitz, they just put four man pressure. They take away the middle of the football field because their linebackers can all go back and you're, you're saying to the Patriots, you know who's going to beat us in the middle of the football field when we, when we have that, we're going to take that away from you. And I Absolutely adore your Ramon Dre play. So that. That's one of the ways, right? Yeah, He.

[A]

He's.

[C]

He's. He's been built in. I like his yardage. I like his reception overs. But let me hear the recipe from your perspective. All right.

[A]

The viewers probably noticed there was a little edit there. It was because the power on my street went out and I lost power for, like, five minutes right as I was about to answer House's question about why I thought the Patriots could move the ball on the Texans.

[B]

Symbolic.

[A]

I don't know if that was an open. I wish I had a better answer than this. I really believe in Drake maybe. And I felt what he did in the second half of that Chargers game against, I think, a good defense where he just kind of figured it out as the game went along. I think he got out all his, like, rookie, rookie seedleg, playoff, rookie seedleg stuff, and I don't think he was happy with how he played. All the dialogue all week was, Drake's gotta be, like, just, like, slightly nudging him. And I think he's gonna love playing in this game against Houston. Like, I think that. I think he likes this shit. It's like, oh, this is the best defense. We've seen teams move the ball on. On Houston. And I don't. The 2000 Ravens. I get it. You can. That feels like a little bit of an overreaction. Trigs.

[B]

It's hyperbole. I know.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

After.

[A]

After a Steelers team that. We've seen other defenses do that, too. You know, Browns. I just like the. The. Our defense's chances against their offense as much as I think the reverses. So they'll put together the McDaniels. I have one crazy play. Henry will be involved. Drake will use his legs to save some plays. That's what Rogers couldn't do last week. He didn't save any plays. You know, I have a bet House, that you're going to absolutely love.

[C]

Love or hate.

[A]

No, this is a fanduel prop.

[C]

Okay, great. I'm going to love it.

[A]

First half of the game is a tie.

[C]

Why?

[B]

Why though?

[A]

Why Patriots? No, this is a for Ringer. 107. First half of the game is a tie. So it's like three three, six, 60077, whatever. Patriots win 17 to one. Wow.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

So you're just rooting for like a three, three first half and then do it. I thought now that you're talking about.

[C]

It, we got to do it.

[A]

This is my favorite bet of the entire second round CJ Stroud to throw a pick. Minus 125.

[C]

Fine.

[A]

If he doesn't throw a pick, I'll be disappointed. So Shrigs is in on the Texans. You're in on. There's a bunch of manifesto rules against you, including the law of Lombardi, your Guy Lombardi. Bad offensive lines don't travel. Just throwing that one out. We're just throwing out. The Dome team outside. We're just throwing out. CJ Stroud. Looked like he was having a. Like, a legitimate meltdown last week. It's only going to be worse. Obviously, I have to take the pats, but I think the line's fair. And I like the minus three house. You agree?

[C]

I'm fine with it because I can't come up with, on the offensive side of the ball for Houston, a way.

[A]

For them to get 14 points.

[C]

There's no rhythm. Like, there's like. You know, I might just play like on the pregame show.

[B]

You guys watched Monday, Jalen Petrie, like a Scud missile on every single. I mean, they were. There was not a second. They were amazing.

[C]

That's Christian Kirk. And it's, you know, it's all these guys. Yeah, Petrie was amazing. That's. That's absolutely.

[A]

It was like Shriggs went to the Boogie Nights set during the filming of Spanish Pantalones, and he's like, you don't understand this. Dirk Diggler.

[C]

I was there.

[A]

I was there. This guy is the best porn star I've ever seen, too.

[C]

Am I?

[A]

Scotty in the corner, he would go doggy style. He'd go straight up.

[C]

Really? He really was that, though.

[A]

You think Dirk was the goat?

[C]

Pete. Pete's right. I mean, Roller girl.

[A]

Roller girl did say he was the goat. All right. Last game, the most fun one and the one I actually feel the most strongly about. Bears. Bears getting three and a half at home against the Rams.

[B]

Can I set the table for you and your listeners with.

[A]

You guys just cook.

[C]

Oh, let's do it.

[A]

Let's.

[B]

So a little bit was made out of it. And Stephen A. Actually hit on it a touch. But like you, that handshake and all that mother f, mother f. Stuff from Ben Johnson did not go over well with the McVeigh tree, if you will. And around the league, Mike LaFleur is Matt LaFleur's little brother. He's the offensive coordinator for the Rams. And Sean's best friend in coaching is Matt LaFleur. So when you do the utter disrespect in the brazen locker room, Video where you're saying, f the Packers, f that coaching staff and the social media team clicks, go send it, put out in the world. And then the next day, when you've got 24 hours to really think about it, to say, no, I'm fine with what I said. And my owners got my back on that, too. It's the stuff that I know you and Sal were talking about. We were. It's the stuff that I live for. It's like this is the, the, the, the, the WWE part of this where there's actual personalities involved. And like, I think McVay wants to kick the snot out of Ben Johnson. And I think Ben Johnson, who's beaten McVeigh the last two times when Detroit played the Rams, has no problem with that. I'll beat the snot out of you. Like, I love these two guys. Two young alpha offensive minds like, going at it in this game. I can't wait.

[A]

Wow. Shreg's got it legitimately aroused.

[C]

I did well, I'm, I'm, I'm right there with him. I love that shit so much. And Shreg sees you just put the, the hairs on my neck now. I did get a nice haircut.

[A]

Let's go, man. Let's go.

[B]

In a league where every coach hugs the other coach and they give the.

[A]

They give the jerseys great effort, you.

[B]

Know, two loses to, to the Steelers on a Monday night game and is seen there hugging Jalen Ramsey, trading a jersey. Like, that's the stuff that. This is the opposite. These guys do not like each other right now, and I think that's great.

[A]

What's your take on the game, House?

[C]

So I can't get past the Bears terrible run defense. That's the starting point for me.

[B]

I think that's where you start.

[C]

It might be the ending point as well. The ability of the Rams to establish the run. I think like all of this stuff with the weather and everything, we're just overdoing it. I'm just not going to, like, use that as a element. But for, for sure it's the case. Like, the Rams can run the football. They have one of the best run block, win rate, you know, percentages across their number two in that all three of the, their, their guys. Jackson, you know, he's playing McLendon. It looks like they're getting Kevin Dotson back.

[B]

Dotson is getting back there. That's a big deal. They haven't had a big deal.

[C]

That would be a big deal.

[B]

He's big.

[C]

He's big. He's huge. I mean he's huge for, for their, for their run. But they've been doing this two headed run monster here with some success over the last like, you know, six, seven games. And this is the way that they keep their defense off the field because their defense since week 13, it's a kind of trash kind of, you know, I don't, I don't want it to be a shootout kind of scenario where the Bears have the ball in, in the fourth quarter and they need to go down to, to tie or win. At some point it feels like that luck will run out. But who the hell can say when? Who can say when?

[B]

Well, here's the thing. The Bears have won in crazy fashion. They have won games in the wildest ways and the Rams have lost games in crazy fashion like that Seattle game, the San Francisco Thursday night game, the Carolina game.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So like it's the Philly.

[C]

Did you say Philly?

[B]

The polar opposite.

[C]

It was the craziest.

[B]

No doubt. The cold weather thing is interesting. So you could say, you know, it's gonna be 8 degrees and the Bears play in that and that's just what they are. And like the Rams are a warm weather team. I would argue Blake Corum went to Michigan, Karen Williams went to Notre Dame. Pukas went to, went to byu. Devonte Adams played at Green Bay. Like I, Stafford's a Detroit guy. Like I don't know, he's at least.

[C]

An NFC north guy. Yeah, like he, he, he's played in Chicago when it's cold 100%.

[B]

So I don't know if I make as big of a deal as it. Bill, what do you think?

[A]

Rule number eight, Beware of any AGQB in cold weather.

[B]

By the way, by the way.

[C]

Busted finger, right?

[B]

A finger. That's real.

[C]

Uh oh.

[A]

Rule number 12, beware of any team that celebrated the previous weekend's playoff victory like they just won the freaking Super Bowl.

[B]

That's the Bears.

[C]

There is one of those. We have one of those in this game.

[A]

Rule number 13, don't dismiss the nerd evidence. That the nerd evidence is absolutely overwhelming. So that goes both ways. Bears run defense that House mentioned. Can we talk about how bad the Rams special teams is and how that's going to be the demise of their season in 8th degree weather. Has ever been a better blueprint for getting your season fucked up?

[B]

God.

[A]

I'm in on the Bears.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

Stafford and freezing cold Rams special teams and the Bears have just done this too many times that I'm tired of watching. I think they're gonna be able to throw on them. The 8 degrees thing is meaningful. It's gonna be freezing cold. The Rams are a fucking dome team. And I know they have the profile they can do outside and run the ball and all that stuff, but.

[C]

But.

[A]

I just feel like the Bears are. It's like a legitimate Michael Myers situation. You have to be up like 20 points before you feel safe. The packers were up 20 points or they're up 18. They basically didn't go up to 20. I just think this has all the makings. I can see it in my head that Collins were to Rico. Oh, Mike just going nuts. Just the shots of the Bears fans freezing. Yeah, Bears fans just loving it. Them cutting the Rams and them being like, Jesus Christ. I've never been this cold in my life. Like you say Stafford was from Detroit. They played indoors in Detroit.

[C]

I know they played in the nfc. They played in Lambeau and I get it.

[A]

But he lives in la. I go back east when it's cold and it takes me like two days to. I'm just freezing the entire time. It's a real thing. The Edwards thing really wears me.

[C]

Yes.

[B]

If you're left tackle, they have their left tackle. Was a played a great season. He's injured.

[A]

Is he definitely out right now?

[B]

He's trending that way.

[A]

The hook is great. I like that. This could be Rams 27:17 and I could still get a hook at the end and steal one with the Bears and the picks have been terrible all year and it'd be more fun to root for the Bears. That's really my case. I the Rams go in road game last week, road game this week, road game looming next week, I think is unless San Francisco can somehow win. So there is this other weird scenario where Rams can win Niners and then all of a sudden going in because.

[C]

They have extra rest for completely unnecessary reasons.

[B]

When the Rams won the super bowl that year, they were the five seed and the the Niners were the sixth seed. Same thing happened. They hosted them at the NFC championship game.

[A]

Well, can we do worst case scenarios for each side? Because I think this is the perfect game to do that. Okay, worst case scenario. You bet the Bears. You can't stop the Rams running game. They just have the ball the whole time. Caleb passing game three and out rams back. Puka makes his one 50 yard play that he broke. Three tackles. You can't get the ball back and you're like, we just want to get it to the fourth quarter. And then it's 27 to 10 and you never had a chance. Right. Is that the worst case scenario for the Bears? Just the Rams on the field, 39 minutes of possession.

[B]

Do you know what team scored the most points in the wild card round? The Rams. Like they score. Yeah, they're going to score. Can the fear is that they come out and they just put up 40 on you.

[C]

When they don't play good defenses, they average 32 and a half points. They scored 27 points in 11 of their 14 games.

[A]

The Rants worst case scenario for the, for the Rams, couple dumb things happen. Stafford pick missed field goal block, field goal, some sort of kick return, something.

[B]

And it's just frigid.

[A]

And it's close late and Caleb starts heating up and you have the Rams minus three and a half and you're like fuck you.

[B]

Bring out the.

[A]

Why did I bet against this? This is, this team has done this seven times. The Bears done this seven times. The 19 week schedule where they've had these crazy comebacks. I just, I don't know how you can bet again. This feels like the last hurrah for them because then they go to Seattle the next week and. But I don't know the, the hook. I wish this line. If it was two and a half, I'd like the Rams the three and a half. I feel like it's an extra point.

[B]

House, what do you make of a few of the Rams assistants interviewing for head coaching jobs this week?

[C]

Oh, distraction, distraction. It's distracting. So you have to weigh that against the, the, the Ben Johnson hatred. Which, which one. Which emotion is, is going to carry the day.

[B]

They might hate him. You know, in obviously a football sense. Not personal.

[A]

Yes, of course, but football.

[B]

But he has run the ball and done whatever he's wanted with Detroit's offense the last few times they've played.

[A]

Also, can we talk about the Rams? Last two months would be my other thing I wanted to bring up. Where. Yeah, Carolina last week. Arizona, week 18, whatever. The Atlanta game. They lose. They lose the Seattle game by one. The Detroit game is back and forth. They end up winning by 7. 41, 34. Arizona the other game, throw out Carolina, they lose by three. Is there like a ton of evidence this is a juggernauti kind of team at this point. It's a, it's a beatable team. House.

[C]

Of course the Panthers almost beat them. Like they were one play away from winning that football game. The Panthers.

[A]

So last piece of my case.

[C]

And they, they deserved it. They deserved it.

[A]

Last piece of my case. What if Caleb went Up a notch. What if he actually went up a level over these last couple weeks and like, that fourth quarter was actually, like, this might be closer to who he is now versus, like, this guy who takes two hours to warm up. Like, what if he just comes out and he's really good in this game? What if he's just awesome in this game? It's conceivable, right? Yes, of course.

[C]

And we know the Bears can run. I mean, they're, you know, they, they've demonstrated against defenses at least as good run defense wise as this Rams team, you know. Well, if Ben Johnson gets any kind of a weakness, it's what he did to that Philadelphia Eagles. He's like, oh, I have an advantage here. Yeah, let me just keep running the exact Same play for 260 yards on the fucking ground. Let's see how that works out. And they just beat him last week.

[A]

Coker 9 for 1, 34, McMillan 5 for 81. And now. And the other thing is, Lovelands turned into an absolute monster the last four weeks. I just, I really like their passing offense. I think they can throw on the Rams and keep the game even. If the Rams score on them, I think they can come back and score on the Rams. And my whole thing is like, if, if, if you feel like either team can win, you got to take the points, right?

[C]

It's totally fine. I'm not, I'm not getting your way. The other thing you have going for you is like, the first bet I made this week was Seattle Rams moneyline parlay. And then I. And then I put Indiana with it as well. So, you know, you know how this is going to go.

[A]

I feel like either team can win this game. Bears plus three and a half. That's my last one. Shregs hates it.

[B]

I hate it.

[A]

I forgot one bet that I really love from the Texans game. Drake made to have the most rushing yards in the game plus 4 10.

[B]

Okay, more than reminder.

[A]

That could be like 47 yards. Could be the most rush yards in that game, Right?

[C]

What is it?

[A]

What are the plus 410?

[C]

I got to take a break. 66 last week.

[B]

What's the over under in that game? What's the total?

[A]

Well, that was one. This is my last thing talking about the picks.

[B]

Over.

[A]

Under is 40 and a half.

[B]

Patriots, Texans, House.

[A]

We could do Pat's money line under 51 and a half. The game would have to do 52 points to beat it.

[B]

Why is he doing this?

[A]

He hates these bets. No, no, no, House, what's. What scenario does this go to 52 points matter?

[C]

What scenario did the Chargers and the Patriots not get to 31 points? How did they not get to 31?

[B]

It doesn't just don't do totals.

[C]

You're done. No, we. I'm.

[A]

We.

[C]

We do do totals and we lose because it's one of the reasons we.

[A]

Have a 40 and 55 record in ring 107.

[C]

I I honestly, I think the, the parlays, like if you took out the parlays, we're probably damn near 500. Yeah, like we were on the correct side many times on these, on these parlays.

[A]

This episode is brought to you by ServiceNow AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built into. That's why it's no surprise that more than 85% of the Fortune 500 use the ServiceNow AI platform. While other platforms duct tape tools together, ServiceNow seamlessly unifies people, data workflows and AI connecting every corner of your business. With AI agents working together autonomously, anyone in any department can focus on the work that matters Most. Learn how ServiceNow puts AI to work for [e-mail] Jumpstart your January goals at Whole Foods Market.

[B]

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[A]

Save all month long terms. Apply today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel we're picking four playoff games. House would not allow us to do any parlays. We went against Peter Schrager's advice on.

[B]

All four games, I think.

[A]

Is that true?

[B]

No.

[A]

I was with you on Seattle Broncos minus one and a half over the Bills when the only cases don't go against Josh Allen and you can't come up with a single other reason to take the team. Sadly, you got to take the Broncos and I actually think that line should be minus three. Next one. 49ers plus seven over the Seahawks. We're all aligned on this one. Line's a little too high. Don't know about this startled abdomen thing. Haven't loved the Seahawks offense the last couple weeks and third time these two teams have played, which usually leads to something wacky. Next one. Patriots minus three over the Texans. Some people are asking how are the Patriots going to move the ball against the Texans? D I ask how Are the Texans going to move the ball in cold weather in New England against the Patriots D. Low scoring game. I just think this is a quarterbacks game at some point. This is Drake May versus C.J. stroud. Pick carefully. And then last but not least, Bears plus three and a half against the Rams. Shrags was horrified by this pick. House kind of liked it. I think I talked him into it. Two things here. I think either team could win. I like the hook and I think the Bears are going to be able to move the ball. So I actually like the over in this, I think. What was that game you played last year? House was the Washington Philly game. What was that, like 52 to 30, 55 to.

[C]

Oh, yeah, yeah.

[A]

Usually cold weather games.

[C]

Degrees, yeah.

[A]

Weather games. Cold weather games tend to bring that down. So. Yeah. All right, Bill and. Wait a second, wait a second. That was today's ring 107 brought to you by Fanduel. Odd subject to change. What do you got? Tricks.

[B]

I was going to tell you. You're still on fire. We were talking about this two weeks ago. Your Peyton Manning, O.J. simpson mailbag question was one of the you're still in your apex moment here. You're still on fire.

[A]

Apex.

[B]

Re apex. That's exactly right. You're on apex Mountain in the re apex with the sliding doors and the whole thing. I'm telling you, on fire. Whatever you're doing.

[A]

Do you agree with that house? That modern O.J. would. I did it. Yeah. It was within the last 20 hours.

[C]

That I'm trying to catch it.

[A]

Tell them what the answer was if the OJ Car chase happened again. Who would be the athlete that could compare the most to how we felt about OJ in 1994 when that happened? And my answer after offering Serena Williams and Charles Barkley. I forget who the third one was. Oh, Jason, Kelsey, Kelsey. But the answer is clearly Peyton Manning fame. Being shocked that it's happening. My mom would care. I think he's the answer.

[C]

And then House, he's like. They would break into even the Oscars.

[A]

Yeah. Super Bowl Oscars. Name an event. Stranger Things, season finale.

[C]

Every event, they would be interrupted. Peyton Manning is in. Who would he be driving with?

[A]

Peyton Manning. Who says?

[C]

Dwight Clark.

[A]

It's probably Marvin Harrison, actually. Oh, God. Hope he's not here. Say that. Yeah. So you agree with that answer? Shregs, it was amazing.

[B]

You're on fire, dude. Please, whatever you're doing, no carbs, no sugar. Just keep it going. You're. You're on fire right now. You're kicking ass, and I love being a part of it.

[C]

I'm gonna see him in three weeks. Oh, that's going to hell. Telling you right now.

[A]

Yeah, House and I are going back for Bob Cousy's court retirement at Holy Cross.

[C]

Naming. Naming ceremony.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Holy Cross and Woods.

[A]

It's the weekend of Super Bowl. We don't care.

[C]

Skipping the Super Bowl.

[B]

Super bowl weekend.

[A]

Yeah. It's Bob Koozie. It's the fucking cozy.

[C]

We'll be back in time.

[A]

Yeah, no, we'll be back for the game, but we're not. We're not going to. I don't want to go to Santa Clara and have the electromagnetic rays being shot at me. I care about my tendons and my ligaments.

[B]

No super bowl week for you at all.

[A]

No super bowl week.

[B]

Oh, that's a disappointment.

[A]

It's going to be. It's going to be a Holy Cross weekend. Me, Hassel, Jacko. We're back.

[B]

Jalen Coker.

[A]

Yeah. Maybe Jalen Coker will be our fourth house. Should we ask him? Nine catches last week.

[C]

It's either him or Gordy Lockbomb. One or the other.

[A]

TRIGGS Kuz is 97.

[B]

It's unbelievable.

[A]

Still killing it like crazy.

[B]

He was so old in the movie Blue Chips, and that was 30 years ago.

[A]

He's the absolute best. And we let. One of the reasons we love being at Holy Cross 30 years ago is we had this Koozie Heinson legacy of. It was just so cool that they won the NCAA title nit. Like, it was a big part. And now it's like so many years ago. I don't even think the kids there probably even realize those guys went there. So, yeah, we're going back.

[B]

I'm going to miss you in San Francisco. We usually have a good hang during super bowl week. I'm. I'm a little sad.

[A]

I mean, San Francisco, Santa Clara, it's all over the map. I don't know what to tell you. You love super bowl, though. There's nothing more you love than sidling up to a minority owner and a TV exec and then a retired quarterback. Just like, being able to just move around. I've seen you in action.

[B]

You, me, Mike Tirico and Bryce Young in a conversation last year.

[A]

That happened last year. That was great. That was really fun. All right, guys.

[C]

Well, I mean, that rivals this. This appearance by Lena Dunham on Netflix. I'm on with Lena Dunham and Bill Simmons. That's amazing. Look at Lena House.

[A]

You're in Ringer gambling show on Saturday. Shrigs, any more TV this week for you?

[B]

Yes, Friday morning I'm on get up.

[A]

That's tomorrow.

[B]

Yes, in a couple hours.

[C]

Oh Jesus.

[A]

Go to bed, Shriggs. Thanks guys. Thanks to Gahao and Eduardo as well. Don't forget I'll be back here live on Netflix on Sunday night after the Rams Bears game. You'll be able to watch and listen to that on Spotify as well. Enjoy the weekend. Enjoy the gambling. Great to see you guys. We don't have feelings with him. Must be 21 plus on President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + on President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming game problem call 100 Gambler, visit rg-help.com, call 888-797-777 or visit ccpg.orgchattinconenetic or mdgamblinghelp.org In Maryland, Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny this episode is brought to you by TaxAct. Like an expert coach, TaxAct offers step by step guidance and guaranteed accuracy when filing taxes. Get tips along the way. Add expert assist to talk to tax experts and let our experts do your taxes for you. With Expert full service, TaxAct helps you find the deductions and credits you deserve so you can get them over with. Visit taxact.com to learn more. Conditions apply. See taxact.com for details. New York.