The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: The NFL’s Coaching Carousel, and a Round 2 Breakdown
Date: January 16, 2026
Guests: Peter Schrager (NFL Insider), Joe House (Ringer mainstay)
Theme: A deep dive into the wild NFL head coaching market, upcoming divisional playoff round, and the ever-present agony and glee of NFL roster construction, media narratives, and gambling picks.

Episode Overview

This episode is centered on the NFL’s rapidly spinning coaching carousel, reflecting on high-impact coaching changes (notably Harbaugh and Tomlin), NFL ownership philosophies, and how these moves shape the outlook for struggling franchises. The second half zeroes in on divisional round playoff matchups, breaking down each game from angle of betting, matchups, and narrative—peppered with sharp banter, gambling confessionals, and signature Ringer wit.

Coaching Carousel: Harbaugh, Tomlin & the State of NFL Organizations

The Harbaugh Hire — Giants’ Search for Stability

[03:44 – 11:42]

• Schrager: Compared recent buzz for John Harbaugh to the similar hype over Pete Carroll—except Harbaugh, at 63, is younger and possibly fits what the Giants most need: "That franchise has just lacked an adult in the room for a decade. The fan base needed this guy at this moment."
  • Notable quote: “The Giants needed an adult, and they hired an adult.” (Schrager, 07:14)
• Simmons: Skeptical about fans remembering the Giants’ glory years: "There’s Giants fans in high school who have no recollection of anything good." (06:04)
• Debate: Critiques of Harbaugh: Doesn't call plays, lost locker room in Baltimore, history of poor coordinator hires.
• Insight: The hiring process felt old-school, with classic beat reporter chases and ownership drama. Schrager lauds the coverage: “It had a kind of old school chase to it... Those Giants beat reporters did a great job.” (10:33)
• Media Side Note: ESPN/Netflix coverage of the coaching search gave it a quasi-‘lost era’ vibe, with real-time journalism highlighted.

Tomlin Steps Away — The Steelers’ End of an Era

[12:37 – 19:48]

• Simmons: Finds Tomlin’s exit “way more interesting” than Harbaugh, and the failure to secure a quarterback for years is “inexcusable.”
• House: Wonders about front office dysfunction: “How have they missed? Like, there’s been good quarterbacks for eight years now.” (12:55)
• Schrager: Defends Tomlin’s lack of options due to draft position; reveals Tomlin quit, wasn’t fired—Steelers will demand compensation if he returns before two years.
• Notable quote: “He’s walking away in a place where...I don't think he wanted to hear the noise anymore. I think he wanted a break.” (15:58)
• Ringer Analogy: Comparing these hiatuses to “coaching gap years”: A coach’s reputation only grows during a media break (Riley on NBC effect).
• Reflection on Steelers: Simmons: “This is like the guy selling the house...there’s 90 things about to happen, and he’s just gone. I wish everybody the best.” (18:32)

Organizational Instability, Ownership, and the Rookie Coach Trap

Assessing the Most and Least Appealing NFL Jobs

[21:59 – 27:31]

• Simmons: Ruthless on the Browns: “I would rather just pass. Terribly owned...seven other teams I’d rather be for the next five years in the AFC.”
• Young Coaches: Teams like the Browns swinging for super-young, little-known coaches because, as Schrager notes, “there are so many negatives to some of these head coaching jobs.” (24:18)
• Job-Hopping Advice:
  • Simmons’ “coaching consigliere” framework: “Who’s your quarterback, who’s your owner? If you’re 0/2, I’m out.” (25:54)
• Comparison of Openings: Cardinals and Browns are painted as coaching graveyards; Vegas, Atlanta, and (with caveats) the Raiders have appeal due to better QB/ownership situations.

Former QBs as NFL Decision-Makers

[36:13 – 37:23]

• New trend: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Troy Aikman quickly elevated into organizational roles. Schrager: “Now you got Troy Aikman and Tom Brady and, you know, Matt Ryan, who are like, I have actually done it. I actually respect that, too.” (37:14)
• Simmons: Skeptical of ex-players seamlessly becoming front office architects: “Matt Ryan, you’ve been on the set of CBS for two years. Tell us how to rebuild our football organization from top to bottom.” (37:23)
• Cultural Fit: “Survival for these executives is always in the equation...that’s why Belichick got one interview...you’re handing the keys over to Vrabel.” (Schrager, 39:17)

Playoff Round Two Breakdown

Betting & Manifesto Rules Galore

[42:11 – 95:35]

1. Bills at Broncos

[42:11 – 53:43]

• Josh Allen Paradox: Bills keep scraping by despite a depleted roster. Simmons: “You’re getting a point and a half just because of Josh Allen...I can’t think of another reason.”
• Broncos Case: Home dominance, Sean Payton’s track record, and a healthy, rested team.
• Dissent: If you’re resorting to “never bet against the QB” as the only reason, Simmons concludes, “That’s not a good enough reason.” (50:21)
• Consensus pick: Leaning Broncos -1.5.

2. Seahawks at 49ers

[53:46 – 63:32]

• Narrative: Banged-up 49ers, Shanahan’s genius vs. a peaking Seattle defense.
• Injury drama: Sam Darnold "oblique" may put Drew Lock under center; “that’s as bad as one of the arm injuries.” (54:38)
• Simmons: “This is laid out for the Seahawks—they could win the Super Bowl if they don’t screw it up.” (56:48)
• Counter-case: Niners move the ball well but have come up short; Shanahan’s scheme could save them. “Beware the 'nobody believes in us' team—Niners in neon.” (59:34)
• Pick: 49ers +7.

3. Patriots vs. Texans

[66:05 – 78:24]

• Matchup: New England’s offensive creativity vs. historically fast and aggressive Texans’ defense.
• Schrager: Raves about Houston: “This might be like the 2000 Ravens, they might not need to do anything on offense.” (68:17)
• Simmons: Pushes back: Houston offense is limited, bad offensive lines don’t travel, Stroud looked lost last week; weather and home field favor the Pats.
• Key stat: Milton Williams’ impact on New England’s run defense (“when he’s in it’s the second best run defense in the NFL”, House, 70:39).
• Favorite bets:
  • Stroud to throw a pick (-125)
  • Patriots-Texans game tied at halftime, Pats win (17-1)
• Pick: Patriots -3.

4. Bears vs. Rams

[79:21 – 91:14]

• Backstory: Coaching beef—Ben Johnson’s trash-talking locker room video did not sit well with Sean McVay and the Rams staff. “I think McVay wants to kick the snot out of Ben Johnson.” (79:25)
• Matchups:
  • Rams run game and offensive line potentially overpower Bears’ weak rush defense.
  • Weather: Significant cold in Chicago, questions about Rams’ adaptability.
• Simmons invokes Manifesto Rules:
  • #8: "Beware any AG QB in cold weather."
  • #12: Avoid teams coming off a "Super Bowl-like" win (the Bears last week).
  • #13: "Don’t dismiss the nerd evidence" (Rams’ poor special teams—potential fatal flaw in the cold).
• Worst-Case Scenarios Tabled: Both teams can win, Bears’ relentless comeback ability vs. Rams’ “jugger-juggernaut” narrative is overstated.
• Pick: Bears +3.5.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On Giants Coaching Search
  • “It had a kind of old school chase to it... those Giants beat reporters did a great job on this one.” – Peter Schrager [10:33]
• Simmons, on Giants’ drought:
  • “There’s Giants fans in high school who have no recollection of anything good.” [06:04]
• On Coaching Organizational Philosophy:
  • “If you’re 0 for 2 with [owner and QB], I’m out.” – Bill Simmons [25:54]
• On Tomlin’s Exit:
  • “He’s walking away in a place where...I don’t think he wanted to hear the noise anymore. I think he wanted a break.” – Peter Schrager [15:58]
• On Texans D:
  • “They might not need to do anything on offense...Win games 13–10, 16–13. This defense is that good.” – Schrager [68:17]
• On Manifesto Rules:
  • “Beware the 'nobody believes in us' team...that’s the Niners and all flashing colors in neon. That’s rule three.” – Bill Simmons [59:34]
• Banter: Running “nobody believes in us” and “Pat Riley NBC” effect jokes throughout.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Harbaugh & the Giants: 03:44–12:00
• Tomlin & Steelers fallout: 12:37–19:48
• Ownership, rookie coaches, and organizational instability: 21:59–40:05
• Bills @ Broncos playoff breakdown: 42:11–53:43
• Seahawks @ 49ers playoff breakdown: 53:46–63:32
• Patriots vs. Texans playoff breakdown: 66:05–78:24
• Bears vs. Rams playoff breakdown: 79:21–91:14
• Ringer picks and round-up: 93:35–95:35

Tone and Language

• Conversational, insider-heavy, with a blend of sarcasm, gambling paranoia, and football-nerd revelry.
• Simmons and House keep the jokes coming—lamenting their losing bets (“We remain the carcass of Ringer 107 picks season”) and riffing on media absurdities, “blue shirt khaki pants mafia,” fake Manifesto rules, and everything from Hollywood to 2000 Ravens references.

Final Notes

• The episode blends savvy NFL insight with classic Ringer meta-commentary—in equal parts a clinic on what matters in hiring coaches, and a confessional for tormented NFL gamblers.
• Takeaways: Don’t overrate name coaches, beware incompetent franchises, and never, ever trust cold-weather games involving AG QBs or the Ringer parlay picks.
• Picks recap: Broncos -1.5, 49ers +7, Patriots -3, Bears +3.5

For listeners who missed it:
This episode is a Ringer sports feast—tailored for die-hards eager for coaching inside dirt, cultural NFL references, media narratives, and investor-grade picks for divisional round football.