← The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Weirdo NFC West, an NBA Over/Unders Check-in, and Million Dollar Picks With Danny Kelly and Joe House
02:02:05
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- [00:00]
Bill Simmons
Coming up, some NFL Million dollar picks NBA we'll try not to make fun of the Yankees. It's all next. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by Ray Ban Meta Smart Glasses Built with Meta AI Ray Ban Meta Smart Glasses react to what you see so you can learn more about the world around you. You can also take hands free photos, videos, send messages, make video calls, even play music and podcasts straight from your glasses with Ray Ban Meta. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. It's tip off time for NBA cup so I hope you're all ready and stocked up on Michelob Ultra. Notice how I called it NBA cup and not the NBA Cup. Trying to get that going. We'll see how it goes. I really love how they're getting fans closer to all the action with Michelob Ultra Courtside. It has exclusive content and prizes like courtside seats, a trip to the Paris Global Game or to All Star Weekend and much more. Learn how you can get closer to the action. Visit michelobultra.com quartzide Michelob Ultra Superior Access Courtside 2425 Sweepstakes no purchase necessary. Open to US residents. 21/ begins on 10124 goes through 7125 Visit micheloblcher.com Courtside for free. Entry, entry deadlines and official rules and void were prohibited. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a new rewatchables on Monday. We did Halloween 4. You can check it out on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. We also put up the original Halloween episode that Chris Ryan and I did that is on The Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. We have a narrative podcast at the Ringer called Truthless. It's a storytelling show hosted by Brian Phillips about the lies that people tell. It's a little in the vein of like this American Life or Heavyweight. Latest episode features Malcolm Gladwell telling a story about being a young journalist and being accused of lying when he told a funny story at the Moth. Plus a new episode comes out Tuesday, November 5th on election day. So you can check out Truthless. You can check out the Bill Simmons YouTube channel because that's where we put all the videos and clips from this podcast up. You know what, from a karma standpoint with my Boston teams, I really wanted to just roll around like a pig and shit in the Yankees World Series. Let's call it a collapse. Cause they had a five nothing lead at home in a in a must win game and they completely blew it in the fifth inning, which I watched on Twitter today multiple times because Fox was kind enough to put a little montage of. First you have Judge just botching a fly ball, which was, you know, when you have Aaron Judge in center field, it's the kind of thing that happens. Then you have Volpe just whipping, whipping the force out against the runner's legs. That was when I was like, this is. I'm having a great time even though I don't have a team in the World Series. Then last but not least, grounder to first base. And Garrett Cole just decides not to run over and cover it. And all of a sudden it's five. Five. And you kind of knew how the game was going to play out after that. But look, man, I know it's spiteful. I hate the Yankees. I've hated them my whole life. They were the bane of every Red Sox fan's existence for the first 35 years of my life. I wrote a book about this once called Now I Can Die in Peace. I wrote dozens of columns about this on my old website when I was at ESPN's page two. And you're not really truly a sports fan unless you hate a couple teams. And it's not real hate, right? It's sports hate. I wrote a column about that once too. I sports hate the living hell out of the Yankees. And watching them collapse in game five was honestly like. It wasn't like the Red Sox winning a World Series, but it was like second level. It was very close. I didn't bet a nickel on this Series. I didn't need to. I really wanted the Dodgers to win. I was actually very happy for our guy, Mookie Betts and Dave Roberts as well. But watching the Yankees lose, this was my dream. My dream was for the Yankees to make the World Series against, you know, some dubious opponents, get to the World Series, raise their fans hopes up, and then kick everybody in the nuts as hard as they could. That was exactly what happened. And I'm just deliriously happy today. Today's a great day. It's Halloween. One of my favorite days of the year. As you know, my favorite horror movie is Halloween. My son was almost born on Halloween. He missed it by three and a half hours. I was so fired up for him to be born on Halloween night and he just, he didn't deliver. But now he became a November 1st kid, which was great in its own right because it became like a little almost like a two day birthday for him. But I love Halloween. Celebrating Halloween today with wiping the Tears of the Yankee fans off my body was just beautiful. And the best part is Soto's gonna leave, and you had your one chance, and judges hit in his mid-30s, and you missed your window. And we're 15 years and counting with no Yankees World Series. Oh, my God, it's so great. I can't tell you what dicks the Yankee fans were for the first 35 years of my life. And then it all changed in 2004, and it all flipped. And you've only won one World Series this century and is with a rod who was such a crazy cheater that he got suspended for a year. And now he's trying to buy the Timberwolves, and probably he's cheating to do that. Listen, I'm trying not to gloat, but I really loved all of this. And thank you to the Dodgers. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for beating that team. It was great. I had a great time. It was almost like having the Red Sox in the World Series, which, by the way, the Mookie Betts trade. I've never been the same. And I'll probably never care about the Red Sox quite as much ever again. Because as you saw, it's really fucking stupid to trade Mookie Betts. Just pay the dude when you have a top seven market. I've talked about that a million times. But I was happy for him. I don't think he ever want to leave Boston. And that was the only bittersweet thing about last night. It's like, man, that guy should have been drafted by the Red Sox. Played his whole career with the Red Sox and retired with the Red Sox. And instead, our owners got super smart. Cause they just thought they would outwit everybody. Ah, no, no. We're selling high. We're selling high. He's Gonna hit his 30s. This is the history of baseball. You hit your 30s, you're not the same. Guy's like a generational crazy great athlete, one of the great baseball players of the last 50 years, and we traded him for a bag of peanuts. And it still pisses me off. But I wasn't going to let that bring me down last night. Because the Dodgers beat the Yankees and the drought continues. Fifteen years, no World Series. It's so beautiful. Anyway, here's what we have for the podcast today. We're going to bring in Danny Kelly and Joe House. We're going to talk about the goofy NFC West. We're going to talk about MVP odds and some other award stuff. And then we're. Then House and I are going to do Million Dollar Picks. And then House stuck around and we ended up doing like 25 minutes about NBA over unders after 10 days, how things have shifted, why they shifted, and who's in trouble. And we might have made fun of the Sixers. So that's all next. First, our friends from Pearl Jib. All right, taping this on Thursday afternoon before we know what happens with the terrible jets and whatever happened on their Thursday night game. Danny Kelly is here. The second gentleman himself. Oh, no, that was who you had on the fantasy football podcast. Danny Kelly here. Joe House is here. We're going to be doing Million Dollar Picks later, and I know he loves the NFC west, so I invited him to join us as well. What's up, House? How are you?
- [08:02]
Joe House
I'm fantastic. I, not to take the conversation in the wrong direction, went and watched the Washington wizard sweep the Atlanta Hawks this week. So what a time to be alive in the Washington sports scene. Fellas.
- [08:15]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, there's some Jordan pool buzz. I don't know why you had to bring up the NBA when Danny lost his NBA team in Seattle. It feels like a dag for adversarial to start. Danny, we brought you on well to talk football, but really the NFC west, which is confounding, it's confusing, it's annoying. I don't know what to make of it. You could make a case for all four teams to win the division. Right. House and I like a specific team that we'll get into. But for the division, The Niners are minus 110. So basically even. And if you had said before the year, you get the Niners at minus 110 heading into week nine, you would have guessed. So something horrible had happened and something horrible has happened. They've had a lot of injuries. Arizona plus 290. Seattle 5 to 1, Rams 5 to 1. And Seattle and the Rams are playing each other this Sunday. So when you hear those numbers for the division, A, what's the best value of those odds, and B, where's your lean?
- [09:15]
Danny Kelly
Just in general, I think my first thought was I was a little surprised the Cardinals are second, even though they are technically in first place right now. The best value to me right now feels like the Rams. Rams, probably. I think the Rams are that team in this division where if they catch fire, they've got, like, the veteran leadership, they've got the offense, they've got a couple good pass rushers that have really come on. They've had, like, the pieces to just be one of those teams. That like, makes life hard for everybody. So the Rams to me, kind of scare me. And they're playing my Seahawks this week, so I'm kind of. I've. I've kind of got bad feeling about that one.
- [09:52]
Bill Simmons
House, he said the magic word. The Rams, both of us have been staring at all week, 5 to 1 to win the division, plus 3, 10 for the playoffs. And a team that three weeks ago looked like maybe they were just going to toss the season away. Maybe there were Cooper cup trade rumors, which I never believed, but now there's some Rams buzz. House, where do you stand?
- [10:16]
Joe House
Oh, they're buzzing, baby. And the funny thing is, just in the course of one week, these LA Rams, they were plus 410 on the FanDuel sportsbook to make the playoffs all the way down. And I think it's because of people like you. You're on the pod with cousin Sal. You observed that the Rams might be frisky. I think that's picking up some momentum over the course of this week. And it also kind of fits our mind's eye a little bit. Right. Their forecasted win total was around eight and a half coming into the season, and nine wins would have had them very much in the conversation for the playoffs. We got thrown off the scent because they got decimated by injuries. They were obliterated by injuries, especially on defense. So their defensive numbers are abysmal right now, but they're not reflective of what I think they're capable of on defense, which to me would be worrying if I was on the Seattle Seahawks side of things with their. Without abysmal offensive line that the Seahawks possess. I'd be worried about this Rams pass rush.
- [11:16]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Danny and I, we talked a lot about the Seahawks before the year because it felt like this division was live.
- [11:21]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [11:22]
Bill Simmons
And it felt like the odds were out of whack and the Niners were too highly priced, especially with McCaffrey's injury status and just in general super bowl hangover. But it was really hard to figure out who the team was. I'd like Seattle as the team that's Danny's team. So before we hit all these other teams, what happened with Seattle? Why wasn't this better? What. What went wrong? I know they can't block. I know they had a couple injuries to the defensive line at bad times. Metcalf was hurt last week, but. But why isn't this defense better? Why isn't the team better?
- [11:56]
Danny Kelly
I think that they. Well, there's just a lot of variables. You mentioned it. There's been a couple of injuries. I think their offensive line has been really bad, like, maybe even worse than people were expecting. The pressure rates always just through the roof every single game. And it kind of makes Geno Smith have to do heroic type stuff. And he hasn't really. He's had the ball bounce the wrong way, like, a few too many times this year. I feel like he's been playing pretty well, but, like, not well enough kind of deal. And I still think the defense is just learning the system and learning this coach, and they're still just trying to put it together. It's kind of one of those seasons where it just didn't all click like I had hoped it would click. You know, you saw a couple games in the beginning of the year when they played crappy quarterbacks. They looked pretty good. But as they've gotten further along into the schedule, you know, and they also had a bunch of injuries on their defensive line, they've just kind of fallen apart a little bit. I think the vibes are pretty bad right now with the Seahawks defense in particular. But, you know, there's still, I'd say, like a plucky team that can. That could probably get a weird win or two the rest of the season, but maybe lose some games that probably should win that kind of team where, you know, it just depends on the week if they click or not. But I'm definitely less confident than I was at the beginning of the season in these. These guys.
- [13:03]
Bill Simmons
I think I have them fourth right now in my head. And what is it fpi? What's the one that does the playoff like possibilities of percentages and FPI is like way down on them. It was like 17% for them to make it. I think I would have them fourth. I'd have Arizona third. But, you know, House, there's a slight case for Arizona. To me, they're on the dnb. Don't bet. Do not bet. Listen. Been burned on both sides with them a couple times, but they have played the toughest schedule in the league so far. They have shown the ability to kind of steal some games. They've the 30 is he is scheduled the rest of the way. I think I know what their identity is and I want to talk identity with all four of these teams, but I don't know, like, what if they go 5 and 4 this week? Like, could you see a world where they're the NFC west champs? House?
- [13:55]
Joe House
No.
- [13:55]
Bill Simmons
Okay, good.
- [13:57]
Joe House
I cannot and do not. I do want to finish the thought with. With Danny. I want him to help us B.S. you have a nice ticket on Seattle getting to eight wins, right? My, that was one of my biggest outlays in the, in the preseason. I still feel like eight wins fits your description, Danny, of a plucky sort of, you know, couple unexpected wins just to get us across the goal. It feels like the playoffs are probably kind of out of the picture, especially because I think the ran what I expect out of the Rams this week. But can we get to eight wins, Danny?
- [14:29]
Danny Kelly
I still think so. You know, they've got, they've got the Cardinals twice, they've got the jets, they have the Bears and the Rams twice. So if they split with the Rams, beat the Cardinals both times, which of course is, you know, that's projecting, who knows if that will happen. And then if they can beat the Jets.
- [14:47]
Bill Simmons
Well that. But that's the case for them, right? They've only played one NFC west game, so you got five left. Let's say you go four and one in the NFC west all of a sudden. Yeah, all of a sudden that's possible. And also playing Arizona twice is great.
- [15:01]
Joe House
When you asked me BS what I think about the Cardinals, who, who, who the hell knows. They, they're on a three game winning streak where they won games by one point, two points and one point and.
- [15:12]
Bill Simmons
New winning games where like people are fumbling the ball into the end zone and their touchbacks. You start when that shit starts happening. I don't know whether you're lucky or whether that's a sign you're just destined to go 10 and seven and have us bet against you in round one, which is what we'll be doing if Arizona makes round one. That was excited about that House.
- [15:30]
Joe House
I mean the crazy thing is I think their defense is significantly worse than, than the Seattle defense. Sort of talent wise and scheme wise, except Gannon's a pretty effing good coach and they, they have remained competitive, you know, over, over this stretch, so.
- [15:46]
Bill Simmons
Well, from a DVOA standpoint, Niners are ninth, Seattle's 11th, Arizona's 20th and the Rams are 22nd. But that's not entirely fair because there's a couple weeks there where they were basically holding a team by band aids and scotch tape. Danny, talk identities with us. What is Seattle's identity right now? Just flinging the ball and hoping Kenneth Walker's healthy and then you're just going to give up points on defense and that's it.
- [16:14]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, I think they want to be like the Seahawks of old. The smash mouth team that plays defense and can run the Ball and ball control. But they've sort of been forced into being a super heavy, super pass heavy team that relies on their offense to make plays and their defense hasn't been all that good. It comes down to their offensive line, like they can't block. They're really terrible this year on early downs, running the ball on early downs and in the first half. And then they tend to get into these game scripts where they're throwing a lot either because they're coming from behind or just the run game isn't really working. And so, yeah, I think it just their identity, they don't really have one. And that's probably kind of the problem here this year is they don't really have the identity.
- [16:54]
Bill Simmons
I'm disappointed. I felt like their identity would be McDonald's and then chucking the ball and then maybe a little Kenneth Walker if he was healthy. But it seems like through eight weeks, they're not sure. House, Arizona, their identity is do not bet for or against them in any, in any game.
- [17:10]
Joe House
Stay away. I mean, other than figuring out ways to get teams that they're going against at double digit, you know, score. Like you can put them in teaser pieces, whoever they're playing against, because they're, they're not going to win by margin. That's not who this Arizona team is. So if you can get whoever they're playing against up over a touchdown, by all means, do that, but otherwise stay, stay away. I mean, part of the challenge also, you know, we know the history with, with Kyler. We're coming right up about to the point in the season, right, Danny, where you know that, that poor little guy, he is crazy talented. But the wear and tear starts to take its toll. And there are dramatic splits over the entirety of his career between the first eight games and the remaining now, now nine games.
- [17:56]
Bill Simmons
Hmm. Well, so you have that. I can't, I can't back them in good faith. The Rams, they've only played seven games. They're three and four, they're not even 500. So to me, like, if you like the Rams, you could do those long shot bets, but really you should just play them this week against the Seahawks, right? And the feeling should be they should be able to run the ball down Seattle's throat. They should be able to throw the ball to cup and Nakua and they should take care of business. Now if they lose that game all of a sudden, I would say their playoff odds would be like 12 to 1. What have been the matchups with Rams, Seahawks over the years? Danny that you remember.
- [18:37]
Danny Kelly
So, like, if you go back, this is not necessarily like the last couple of years, but for a long time, the NFC west is. I think you put. It's like rock, paper, scissors. The Seahawks used to dominate the 49ers. The 49ers would dominate the Rams. The Rams would dominate the Seahawks, and then the Cardinals were kind of just all over the place. And, um, it's. It's not been quite as clear the last few years. The 49ers have started to dominate the Seahawks over the last few years, but the Rams have always kind of seem to have the Seahawks number for whatever reason. It's just like, even going back to the days when the Rams were, like, a two or three or four win team, the Seahawks would always drop one to the Rams every year. Like, just. This is a team. These two teams, like, hate each other. It's. It's. It's a rivalry that goes back and went like, none of the same players are still around, but they still, like, hate each other. Um, and so, yeah, every time I. If you talk to any Seahawks fans, I think they're just like, oh, God, we have to play the Rams. Hate playing the Rams.
- [19:30]
Joe House
Well, McVeigh owned Carroll, and it seemed like that might have been. I know the respect is there, but it did feel like it might be personal in the sense that McVeigh used those games against Carroll as a referendum, as a measuring stick. Like, yeah, I respect you, Pete Carroll, but I'm going to come in here and innovate your ass to death. And I feel like that's. That's the way the Rams have done it.
- [19:49]
Danny Kelly
And you could make an argument that Carroll's inability to compete against McVay and Shanahan the last, like, three or four years killed them. Was the reason he was. He's gone now. It's just like he just couldn't really keep up. It's like they were playing, like, a different era of football for some reason. You know, these two offenses just. The Seahawks could never really stop them in the last few years.
- [20:10]
Bill Simmons
That's a really good point. Well, and that's one of the reasons, like, when we talk about identities, to me, the Rams identity now that they have their guys back, is McVeigh, that they're always. They're always going to be super well coached. In any tight game, I always feel like they're going to get third and seven, third and six, third and eight. Like, they're just going to keep the chains moving, and they look a lot like where they were Last year when they started to come on. Right. And the problem is you have to approach it almost game to game, which is like, I. I like betting them game to game more than some of those future odds because I don't know how many games in a row Cup's going to play. I don't trust Puka. Like, even yesterday, if you looked at. Or last week when you looked at the way they're using Puka, like, he's like the lead blocker for them. Like that dude. That dude's in 20 collisions a game.
- [20:58]
Danny Kelly
He gets the absolute shit kicked out of himself every game. I swear to God.
- [21:03]
Joe House
He's like.
- [21:04]
Danny Kelly
There's at least one shot every game where it like pans to Puka on the ground and he's like slowly, like doing like a push up off the ground.
- [21:12]
Bill Simmons
Like, oh, God, he's like himself off the field.
- [21:15]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [21:15]
Danny Kelly
I mean, he's a tough, tough guy, but, like, he just takes some shots.
- [21:19]
Joe House
Well, because he plays wide receiver like he's a linebacker.
- [21:21]
Danny Kelly
Totally, right? Totally.
- [21:22]
Joe House
He is seeking contact. He looks to impose his physicality with the football. That's what makes him such a. Such a unicorn. One other thing with the Rams that really will sort of tilt their fate is the health of that offensive line because it. They have restored some health. Bs. Guess how many sacks the sack happy. The blitz happy Minnesota Vikings had against Matthew Stafford and the Rams last Thursday night.
- [21:52]
Bill Simmons
It was a low number, right?
- [21:54]
Joe House
If you think zero is a low number, you are correct. No sacks for that offensive line against that Flores defense. That's getting the job done. And if Matthew Stafford, he doesn't need very much time when he has those two boys. The other aspect will be Kieran Williams remaining healthy. I said his name, right? Right.
- [22:15]
Danny Kelly
Kyren.
- [22:16]
Joe House
Kyron.
- [22:17]
Bill Simmons
I've got house. I've gotten it wrong for, you know, for two years. I think it's like Kyrie, but Kyren.
- [22:24]
Joe House
Okay, great. I got it.
- [22:25]
Bill Simmons
Kyron Williams, I really like him.
- [22:27]
Joe House
Me too.
- [22:28]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I think he like touchdowns.
- [22:30]
Danny Kelly
He'll give you touchdowns.
- [22:32]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, he scores. He's one of those guys that just swings a fantasy league and you don't totally realize it until the champ, you realize that that guy's on the team. Rams schedule, they have some stinkers left, which I think is one of the reasons people. People like them as a sleeper. They still are playing everyone in the AFC East. So you have the Buffalo game, but then you also get the Three Stooges in there as well. They're playing New Orleans. They still have Arizona at home. And they still have Seattle at home, and their only road game in the division is San Francisco. So, you know, and we're going to talk about the Niners in a second. But a big question to me is, is it going to be nine, nine wins for this division or 10? Because 10, 10 means they have to go seven and three down the stretch. But if you look at the schedule, 7 and 3 seems realistic to me if they're healthy. If it's 9 now, it's 6 and 4, that seems way better. And we don't know. All right, San Francisco. So they're 4 and 4. I officially gave them year from hell status two weeks ago. Iuk, just out of nowhere. He's out. Greenlaw, Hufanga, Hargrave, Jennings is now out for a couple weeks. They're claiming McCaffrey might be back soon. McCaffrey was on a foreign. I think he was in Germany. I think he went to Iceland. I think he went to Mexico. I think he went to Argentina. God only knows. Just to get his Achilles fixed. I don't trust him at all. Jordan Mason lasted a couple weeks. He got hurt. Is it more realistic for you that they write the ship or that this is the year from hell? Danny, if you had. If I only gave you those two options, that in mid December, they'll be fine. And we're like, oh, man, remember when we counted out the Niners? Or in mid December, we're going. Why didn't we know this was going to happen? Everybody in the team's injured. Which scenario would you pick?
- [24:26]
Danny Kelly
I would pick. They'll write the ship, probably. I think. I just think they're still too talented on both sides of all. I know they've been hurt a bunch, but even with the skeleton crew that they're running, they're still really good. They're still. I think I saw their sixth in DV away right now. That's despite all the injuries, that's. Despite missing McCaffrey. I think Shanahan can still call a hell of an offense. And, you know, Purdy's actually been playing better than I would have expected, given all the injuries and given the fact that they're, like, basically putting it on his shoulders. I think last year they led the NFL in yards after the catch. It was basically like, pretty. Just give the ball to your guys and let them do the work. And this year he's doing, like, the heavy lifting for the offense. And so, you know, he's not going to be, like, perfect. What? By any means. But I've actually Been more impressed with him this year than I was last year just because he just doesn't have as much help.
- [25:17]
Bill Simmons
By the way, I feel the same way. The three pick game was really bad. I thought that was the worst game he's played now. He's missing a lot of weapons, but I was really all in on like him even as like maybe a sleeper MVP candidate if he could keep them round 11 wins. But I think that game knocked him out.
- [25:33]
Danny Kelly
Probably right, I think. But. But generally speaking, they still have like all the pieces to dominate this division, I think. And despite the injuries, they've got guys coming up like Ricky Piersol looked pretty good in this last game coming back from getting shot like rats wild. And you know, Debo, he's. He's in and out, but he gives them a different element when he's healthy and he can line up in the backfield. And obviously when McCaffrey comes back, like he just makes it so hard to defend that offense. Like anytime they're in third and medium, like it's McCaffrey just getting them first downs, you know, like Kittle is playing like the best tight end in NFL right now. And you know, I just think they still have all the p. They still have enough pieces to be the best team in this division pretty easily.
- [26:16]
Bill Simmons
All right, so what he just laid out house. Are we going to feel stupid if McCaffrey comes back in week 11 and looks awesome and we had this one week window to buy the Niners on a bye week at minus 110 to win the division?
- [26:28]
Joe House
We won't feel stupid because we'll just buy them. Like why, why not go ahead and do it. It's a cheap price. Go. It's not going to get any better than this. And I do think on the defensive side especially, they still have Fred Warner. Fred effing Warner. Like he, he should be in the defensive player of the year conversation as long as he's upright and.
- [26:47]
Danny Kelly
And Bosa.
- [26:48]
Joe House
Yeah, and Bosa. And Greenlaw is supposed to come back still this season, right? Isn't that still in the cards, Danny? No, I don't know.
- [26:56]
Bill Simmons
It's one of those. Yeah, we could see him again, but you know.
- [27:00]
Joe House
Well, what about Hufanga is supposed to be back. He's not done for the season, is he?
- [27:03]
Bill Simmons
They're concerned about it. I was researching that today. He's definitely gone for a while, but he, I mean he could be back for January, but it's not going to help them for the season.
- [27:12]
Joe House
I want to ask this question because it Was curious to me, why weren't the Niners in the bidding for Deontay Johnson from. From Carolina? Why did he go so cheaply to the Ravens? And why wouldn't a team like the Niners, who is, you know, they're always around the hoop in terms of, like, strategically grabbing assets when they come available. Where were they on this, and why weren't they in the mix?
- [27:38]
Danny Kelly
My guess would probably be that he's kind of a knucklehead and he's not. Probably not the best blocker. The 49ers ask a lot of their running backs. You know, they really ask them to, like, stick their face in the fan in the run game and really get up there.
- [27:51]
Bill Simmons
The receivers, I mean.
- [27:52]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, sorry, the receivers. Yeah, we know they're, like, out there blocking and clearing lanes and doing the dirty work. And, you know, we saw Iuk was in the doghouse for, like, a full year early on in his career because he wasn't, like, working hard enough in the run game and doing the things that he. The little things. And I think that, generally speaking, like, when you see a guy go for peanuts like that, there's probably, you know, off the field stuff that's happening. I'm just guessing, but, like, I don't understand. Because he's doing enough production to, like, you'd think it would warrant a bigger price than that.
- [28:20]
Bill Simmons
But, like, House, I have a. I have a less diplomatic answer. He sucks.
- [28:26]
Joe House
I don't think he sucks, but I do think that it has to be.
- [28:29]
Bill Simmons
Steelers were like, we would rather not have him and roll the dice with Isaac Austin and these other random dudes on our team, other than have this guy again. So all that speaks. I stand with Mike Tomlin at all times.
- [28:42]
Joe House
I think that's. That means he's a knucklehead or his experience in Pittsburgh. There's still a growing up element that needs to occur.
- [28:49]
Bill Simmons
And what that did happen in Carolina, that trade, you get a compensatory pick in the off season if you sign somewhere else. That's like, Baltimore literally didn't give up anything, but they were like, all right, we'll roll the dice. Why not?
- [29:03]
Danny Kelly
They literally gave him. They gave Deontay Johnson to the Ravens. Like, you can't find, like, a smaller trade package than trade up from the sixth to the fifth or whatever. It was like 15 spots.
- [29:13]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. And by the way, Panthers, you didn't need to, like, make a tank trade. You're already, like, one of the worst teams of the last five years. Danny, is this the. Is this the worst team since you've been working for us, the Carolina Panthers, because House, we're doing million dollar picks later and House wants to put the Saints in a tease against the Panthers and doesn't even care who the Saints quarterback is. And I'm like, hold on. Like, I actually, I can't put Spencer Rattler in a tease just to add a principle. But the theory is just like Raheem said, his model had them 16 points behind every other team in the league. Are they that bad?
- [29:46]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, I think they are, like, simply.
- [29:50]
Joe House
Put, a lifetime opportunity.
- [29:52]
Danny Kelly
They make every quarterback look like his future hall of Famer. I mean, they, they made Caleb Williams look incredible. And then I think the next week or whatever, he really, really struggled. Or maybe it was a two week stretch. But yeah, I mean, every, every time a quarterback, Bo Nix, looks like his future hall of Famer going up against this team. So maybe, yeah, I'd say they're pretty.
- [30:10]
Bill Simmons
Bad if you, if you had to pick. So every year between week eight, week nine, there's some team that looks like they're dead in the water, right? Last year was Green Bay. I think they were like three and six after nine games. This happens all the time. It's a two and six team. It's a three and six team. It's a 3 and 5 team. And people would just look at it this year and go, oh, it's gotta be the Bengals. Oh, that's the team. They're three and five. When T. Higgins is actually playing, their offense can move the ball on anybody. Like, don't, don't, don't count them out yet. They had that dumb loss to the Chiefs. Like, it's not really a 3 and 5 team. That's the team. Is there another team you would point to that's under.500 that you think has a little bit of a sleeper ish vibe?
- [31:00]
Danny Kelly
That's a great question. How we feel about the Browns with this new, like the Browns renaissance?
- [31:05]
Bill Simmons
Let's fucking have the conversation. Hey, you beat me right now.
- [31:08]
Joe House
That is the answer. The answer is the Browns.
- [31:11]
Danny Kelly
The vibes, the vibes of the Browns. I don't think you could find, like the Panthers vibes were better than the Browns vibes for like the first however many weeks that Deshaun Watson was starting. Like, it was like, this can't get worse. Every stat you looked at it, we make the joke on our, on our fantasy show that like Austin Gale is, is taken down the power grid running these searches, trying to figure out, like, how bad Deshaun Watson is compared to every other quarterback in history. Like, the stats were incredible. And Jameis Winston is like the polar opposite in terms of vibes. Like he's lifting everybody up. Like, I don't know. I think he just gives them an opportunity. Kind of like what we saw last year with Flacco, where it just gives them opportunity to play defense and have more energy and kind of do the things that they want to do on offense because.
- [31:53]
Bill Simmons
Not have your soul sucked out of your body as you watch offense.
- [31:56]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, like, no one wanted to play with that guy. He didn't want to play. Like, this just completely changes everything for the Brown. I don't know if they're in too big of a hole now to, to get out of it.
- [32:05]
Bill Simmons
Can I counter this? Because I was right there with you and then I was doing the research this morning. Denzel Ward had another fucking concussion.
- [32:13]
Joe House
I know, that's such a fun.
- [32:15]
Bill Simmons
He had one in the preseason and you know, it was like, I think his fifth reported one, but it might have even. God only knows how many he's actually had. And when he had one in the preseason, I was like, is he going to retire? Like that seems like too many. Now he has another one. So he's out. And I, you know, he's obviously incredibly important to them. And then they lost J. Okay too he's out for this Chargers game. So I wonder like defensively, because I like the Browns at home and House and I the la. Especially last year, like that Browns defense at home, we were, we were riding them a few weeks, but if they don't have those two guys, I'm a little more nervous. House, you're bullish on the Browns.
- [32:51]
Joe House
I can tell on a week to week basis. And you know, part of the thesis here is they finally have restored health on their offensive line and their offensive line in the preseason forecast was part of the rationale for why they could, you know, kind of threaten once again. I mean, they were always the third team at best in the AFC north, but still an 8 to 9 win team potentially because of that offensive line. Because at some point Chubb will come back and because, you know, the forecast was that Watson would just be league average. Well, he, he wasn't league average. But that restored health to that offensive line timing wise, occurring simultaneously with the return of Nick Chubb, who's still getting his legs back under him. And then you layer on top of that the immeasurable impact of, of Jameis, which is going to cut both ways. Let there be no doubt right he will throw them into some losses a thousand percent. So the right way to play the Browns is not any futures about the underdog. Yeah, you just look for opportunities to play them game by game.
- [34:01]
Bill Simmons
The other problem with them, they have five road games left at New Orleans, which might be a little tougher than it seems right now, if cars back. But then they're at Denver on a Monday night, at Pittsburgh, at Cincy, at Baltimore. But then they also have a home games against Pitt and Kansas City and then Miami week 17, who might actually be a little better than they are now. So it feels like there's been too much damage with them. I think if they had their defense, I'd be a little more excited. I'll tell you, the other team I was looking at and then they traded their left tackle was Jacksonville. The freaking. The team that keeps sucking you in. But you know, like they had a couple dumb losses. The schedule gets a little easier second half. But when they traded their starting left tackle, I was like, oh, they're done. This is, this is a wrap. Minnesota's like, we need a left tackle. And Jacksonville's like, would you like our starter? And once they did that, I thought I was out. Does Indy count for this conversation? I know they're 4 and 4, but.
- [34:59]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, I thought about them. It's almost the exact same situation. It's like Flacco did this last year with the, with the Browns. Yeah. Rejuvenate an offense that's been stagnant because of the. Either the struggling rookie or a struggling second year guy or, you know, obviously last year was desean for a while.
- [35:16]
Bill Simmons
How about can we go with floundering instead of struggling when you're completing 44% of your passes? I need floundering as my adjective.
- [35:25]
Danny Kelly
That works a little bit better. But yeah, I mean, I think, you know, they've got, they've got a ton of talent on offense and if Flacco can do the thing where he's just like distributing the football. Jonathan Taylor looked awesome last game. Like they could, they could marry the run game with the pass game. Josh Downs I think has been a revelation. Michael Pittman hasn't done anything this year, but he could maybe, you know, do a lot better with, with Flacco feeding him the football. And you know, I think they're the, they're the type of team that could scratch their way to nine wins probably. I don't know. What do you think?
- [35:56]
Bill Simmons
Well, I wish they weren't playing Minnesota this week. Cause I keep getting flashbacks to that Browns Playoff game when Flacco is just under siege and completely fell apart. House is nodding. Did you. Were you thinking the same thing? Yeah, I really wanted to take them this week, and I just couldn't get that game out of my head.
- [36:11]
Joe House
It's literally the reason that has me tapping the brakes entirely on my forecast for them for the rest of the season. Because if Joe Flacco gets beat up, gets beat to all hell in this next game against Minnesota, who is going to blitz the daylights out of it? And the Colts all have a great offensive line, but this is a different animal, what Minnesota is going to bring to bear. And we just watched, you know, Houston did a good job of applying some pressure. Joe Flacco can't move. Anthony Richardson at least was able to evade some pressure. Maybe not great decision making, but for sure able to work his way. Flacco is immobile, as immobile as they get. If he gets dinged up one time. What if we're back with Anthony Richardson against our will? That is not a ticket that I want to have in my hand.
- [36:58]
Bill Simmons
I do like the Colts talent. Like, I kind of. I like their receivers. I think they can really run the ball. Even their backup running backs can run the ball. Their defense has gotten much better the last few weeks. Like, I've watched them in these games, feeling like they should be winning the games. And Richardson was just so atrocious last week. I mean, he just. That was it. They had to bench him.
- [37:20]
Danny Kelly
Their schedule is tough. This makes it tough. I could. You can kind of like look at their schedule and say, like, oh, I kind of see why they bench Richardson at this point, because they have the Vikings next week, they have the Bills after that. The jets defense, which, you know, hasn't been as good as I think we expected, but they can still play. And then the Lions the week after that. So they got. They got a tough month ahead here. That. Against some really good opponents that could make like maybe they're just like, trying to. Trying to preserve Richardson's sanity a little bit here as well.
- [37:48]
Bill Simmons
Well, because especially with some of the Houston injuries and Houston's a huge favorite at least on FanDuel, to win the division. I was like, ah, I don't know, Danny, stick around because I want to go over MVP odds with you in house, but we're going to take a quick break. The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by FanDuel. What's better than touchdowns? Touchdowns with a boost. And with FanDuel, you can make your touchdown bet an even bigger one. With a 30% Gronk profit spike. Wow, that's hard to say. A 30% Gronk profit spike. We won this last week by the way with Kotten plus 180. Got an even bigger payout on your next anytime touchdown bet because when you get into the end zone with your guy, you'll win big and all you have to do is visit fanduel.com BS to download America's number one sportsbook FanDuel Official Partner of the NFL. You must be 21 + and President in select states or 18 + and President in DC. Opt in required max wager amount applies. Bonus issued as non withdrawable profit boost tokens restrictions apply including token expiration. See terms for Both offers at sportsbook.fando.com gamble problem call 1-800-gambler or visit rg-help.com this episode is brought to you by Peloton. Now I know what you're thinking. Peloton doesn't look that tough. Well, let me tell you, Peloton is way more challenging than most people think. Whether you're on the Peloton Shred or diving into their All Access membership, they've got a wealth of running and strength training programs that will really push you to your limits. And these instructors, they're not messing around. We're talking military trained sub three hour marathoners and former college athletes who know how to bring out your inner beast. And with tons of options to choose from, you can gear up for race day with seasoned marathoners leading the charge, plus custom strength workouts to keep you accountable and crushing those goals. Peloton is all about the details too. Want to up your game as a runner? Well, their pace targets let you tailor your workout so you can truly challenge yourself every step of the way. Find your push, Find your power with peloton@onepalaton.com all right. MVP odds so DeBundo and Raheem talked about this on the Wednesday episode of the Hook on the Ringer Gambling show. Good title, by the way. I love when we have good titles for our shows. We were talking about MVPs a week ago and I thought Lamar was in the driver's seat. And then they blew that stupid game on Sunday and I think that knocked him out. And yet I don't know who the MVP is. And FanDuel doesn't really seem to know either. Josh Allen's +270 Lamar's +310 With a harder schedule coming, Mahomes is 5 to 1, having probably the worst season of his career Even though the Chiefs are winning Goff 6 to 1, Daniels is 9 to 1. CJ Stroud is 13 to 1. DeBundo made a really interesting case for Hertz at 20 to 1 because the next six defenses he's playing are all terrible, and he might be able to actually cook the next six weeks. And if the Eagles go on a little run, Maybe Brock Purdy's 22 to 1 goes on down the line. As you know, defensive players aren't allowed to win this award, but we don't really have somebody. I would go, oh, that guy's probably going to win. Is there anybody you're looking at at this point?
- [41:15]
Danny Kelly
I mean, yeah, the one guy I think that I kind of just like circled there is Jane Daniels. Just because of all the narratives around him, you know, like, I don't know.
- [41:23]
Bill Simmons
I don't think he'll just ejaculated. We have to. We have to take another break.
- [41:27]
Danny Kelly
I mean, I don't think he will win, but just, you know, the. It's like they feel like they're the team of destiny this year, almost. That, that wild, you know, game winning throw the other day, like, just the way that they're playing, the. The way that they're executing on third and fourth down, like, at truly historic rates, like, I. It's probably not going to last, but right now, just narrative wise and excitement wise and, you know, all that, he kind of was the one that stood out there, I think the obvious one.
- [41:56]
Bill Simmons
You know, thanks for sucking up the house, by the way. That was. I'm so mad I don't have them to win the division. I stared at Summer and you asked me. I asked me a note.
- [42:06]
Joe House
You know what I said?
- [42:06]
Bill Simmons
You said, I can't name more than two players on our defense.
- [42:09]
Joe House
Yeah. I mean, I could name them and I would say they suck. I mean, I could have named them that. I told you the defense isn't any good.
- [42:15]
Danny Kelly
You.
- [42:15]
Joe House
You can't invest in the team in the, in that preseason with that. Yeah. I started off this show talking about the Wizards be as a joke because I am still coming down from the high of the Miracle in Maryland. What are we talking about? It's the C words all day, baby. But in these betting markets, BS knows this. It's a House tradition to have tickets, multiple tickets, and I absolutely must have some, Some, some Josh Allen, because that's the best, that's the most likely. That's the narrative. He has deserved it in the past. That makes it easy for everybody. I also think Jared Goff if Detroit ends up at 14 and three and lands the one seed, I think there's a decent case and he reels off a couple more of these games where he's nearly 100% completion. Now we have to get indoors this week outdoors. No siree. But we will get back indoors for golf. And then I love the hurts case. I think that The Eagles are 20 to 1 5. It's a great price and I have them. I'm a bum. I bought them at 16 to 1 in the summer. 20 to 1 might as well double up. Look at that secondary for the Eagles. That's the thing for them. That's going to turn. That is slowly coming together. They are understanding a little bit of what Mr. Fangio wants out of them and I think that Eagles defense is going to be a propulsive kind of force for them down down the stretch.
- [43:43]
Bill Simmons
Davis seems disgusted by this.
- [43:45]
Danny Kelly
No, no, no, I think that's fine. I have a question about fine. 30 to 1 Jordan Love. Is he. Has he missed too much time already to win it or if he like. Because isn't this like typically kind of a how you do down the stretch award?
- [43:58]
Bill Simmons
He'd have to win. He'd have to have a huge game this week against the Lions at home and beat the Lions and throw for 340 yards.
- [44:05]
Danny Kelly
I just think that that would get it going. The way that he plays, the kind of like he's like effort, he's down there somewhere, you know, type of attitude he has. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see him going kind of like a tear down the stretch.
- [44:17]
Bill Simmons
Do you feel like he's been playing that well, though? Because I don't.
- [44:19]
Danny Kelly
No, not. Not particularly. But I think he can put up stats, I think like. And he has such a. He's in such a good system with so many good weapons around him and I think he's been really banged up and if he gets healthy and then starts to like put it all together down the stretch again, like it's kind of like how you finish. I think a lot of the time kind of influences this. And if I think the packers are really good, I think they have one of the best play callers in the NFL and they have weapons. So.
- [44:43]
Joe House
It's such a good point. Yeah, it's such a good point because literally last season the MVP was decided on Christmas when the Ravens went in and beat the hell out of the.
- [44:53]
Bill Simmons
Remember, we changed our opinion every week for like five weeks in a row.
- [44:56]
Joe House
Right, right.
- [44:57]
Bill Simmons
I have a Kyle turn. The turn the camera on even though it's already on. What is Kansas City's record? How high does it go before Mahomes just has to be the MVP? Like what if they go 17 0.
- [45:11]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, 16 and 1.
- [45:13]
Bill Simmons
Like what if they're 16 and 1? Does he just automatically have to get it? What if they have a four win advantage over every other team in the league and then we look at their actual skill position players and we're like oh, they have 45 year old Kelsey, a rookie worthy the wide Rice was out the whole year. Here's Hopkins. He can't get open but he'll catch stuff in traffic. Juju Smith, Schuster, waved by the patsy. A bunch of random running backs that were either on the waiver wire or not drafted. Like maybe it should be Mahomes. No, he has, he has eight touchdowns.
- [45:51]
Danny Kelly
And nine picks this year. I mean he's going to end up much better, I'm sure. But it would be funny. It would be funny if that was the case.
- [45:58]
Joe House
It's annoying. It's too stupid. The MVP for the Chiefs is the defense. Spag should win MVP is give it to Chris Jones as a player and sports bags. It's just called the award the mvo. It's not. There's no p. It's not for the most valuable player. The most valuable players for the Chiefs are on the defensive side of the ball. They've been effing dominant and there's no as long as they have health and I'm going to knock on wood, they're for sure going to be, you know, absolutely fine. It's how they won the Super Bowl. I mean that plus the seven fumbles.
- [46:32]
Bill Simmons
Well, can we go through their schedule here Because I didn't realize this till I was doing the research last night and today. So they're playing Tampa Monday night, big favorites Denver, home. They're at Buffalo, week 11. So that's a red flagger. That's a possible one. But then they're at Carolina, home, Vegas, home Chargers, at Cleveland, home, Houston and then at Pittsburgh four days later I would say would be the other really dangerous one. And then home Denver, week 18. But we haven't had one of these in a while. Where the team I Remember in the 2000s it felt like this was happening every year. Like we would have these Colts years where they were like 12, 0 the 07 pats. I don't remember us having one of these in a while. And I don't really know the reasons for that other than maybe there's just more Variance with the games now, but this Chiefs team, I don't know, I could see them being like, 13 and oh, and us kind of looking at each other. They're going, wait, what does this mean? Does this mean Danny Reed's the coach of the Year now and Mahomes is mvp? I don't know. I don't know the answer.
- [47:32]
Danny Kelly
What's the stat that you really like where it's like, when he's down 10 points, he's like, undefeated or something like that in the fourth quarter. Mahomes is like that magic about him that you just can't really figure out.
- [47:44]
Bill Simmons
Well, the underdog stats, the best stat where he's only not covered once when he's been an underdog since he's been in the league. Like that. Brady used to have the same shit. It's like, don't make these guys underdogs. It's stupid.
- [47:56]
Joe House
How are you going to say the league ruined this? The league ruined the possibility of any team going undefeated because of the stupid Wednesday Christmas game. They. There's no chance, in fact, if I was involved with the Chiefs and we, you know, we were coming into that game undefeated, I might seriously consider resting everybody on Christmas. I might seriously consider taking the starters, letting them have Christmas with their effing families, grab 10 guys from the practice squad and tell the NFL.
- [48:24]
Bill Simmons
That would go over great.
- [48:25]
Joe House
The point is not to win on Christmas. The point is to win the Super Bowl. The point is to be successful in the playoffs. And coming off of. What is it Saturday to Wednesday? It's. It's goddamn preposterous. It's. It's terrible for the playoff.
- [48:41]
Bill Simmons
Remember the dialogue about this? I remember writing multiple columns about this in the late 2000s, because the Pats played it one way, they went for it, and then they really wore down over the end of the season, the playoffs. And then the Colts did it the other way, and they were like, we're throwing it away. We don't care. And then that backfired, too, and it's like, there's basically no way. You're basically best off losing in, like, week 11 is the way to play it. So maybe they just have to throw the Buffalo game. But, yeah, I think the schedule, for some reason, isn't that hard, especially when you have. You're in the same division as Vegas and the Chargers and Denver, you know, not to mention all the other stuff. So Coach of the Year is another one where it just seems like it has to go to the team that are like, the Dan Quinn it's like, oh, they won six games, five games last year. They've won 11 this year. He's the coach of the year. But that's another one where it's like, well, why shouldn't Andy Reid win this if they go 15 and 2 or 16 and 1. I would make a case for Tomlin, though, if they're in the twelves. I mean, his quarterbacks are Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. They're paying two and a half million dollars combined for their quarterbacks. No, but nobody else in the league is doing that, so I. They would be in there, too. Who else would you have? Danny?
- [49:58]
Danny Kelly
Give me the. Give me, like the favorites right now. So it's like Dan Quinn, Koc for the Vikings.
- [50:03]
Joe House
Yeah, you gotta have Koc up there, the real Koc.
- [50:09]
Danny Kelly
How do we feel about, like, I don't know.
- [50:12]
Bill Simmons
FanDuel doesn't have it right now. Oh, there it is. Dan Quinn's favorite. Plus 195. Sean Payton plus 6, 50. Tomlins plus 7, 50. Campbell nine to one. O'Connell is nine to one, but he's dropping. And Andy Reid is nine to one even though he doesn't have a loss yet. So the floor at LaFlorette 151 is intriguing, too. If they beat Detroit and they're, you know, seven and two, that with some the Malik Willis games. I think he's done a great job this year.
- [50:42]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, I think he. He might have been who I picked in the preseason to win this. I think because I've been saying this for a few years, it's like he kind of like got ignored for a long time because he had Rogers and he was, you know, he. I think right now he only. Jim Harbaugh has a better winning record among active head coaches in the NFL. And he's just been incredible since he was named the head coach there. And people kind of just overlook him because, you know, for a number of reasons. But I think he's proven to be on par with like, the McVeigh in terms of just coaching excellence scheme. Getting the most out of your players, having like all these sort of random guys and getting the most out of them on offense. Like, not. Not to say that they haven't, like, invested at receivers, but it's like second, third, fourth round, fifth, fifth round guys. And they're all really good and they're. They're all getting production out of those guys. And so, you know, they're a ton of talent, man.
- [51:30]
Bill Simmons
That's the game of the week on Sunday that. That really could Be the NFC title game in a couple weeks. Fantasy MVP for you for the year.
- [51:41]
Danny Kelly
Right now, it's Henry. Derek Henry, I think.
- [51:44]
Bill Simmons
Interesting.
- [51:45]
Danny Kelly
I mean, it's either Lamar or Henry.
- [51:46]
Bill Simmons
I would have said. I would have said Lamar, but I see the Henry case too, because. So you got Henry, you're paying.
- [51:51]
Joe House
Why? Where's Saquon? What happened to Saquon?
- [51:54]
Danny Kelly
I mean, Saquon's up there as well.
- [51:56]
Bill Simmons
Henry's got a thousand yards and 14 TDs already.
- [51:59]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, Henry could break a thousand, I think, this week. But he's also just like lapping the field at the running back position in terms of points. He's only had, I think his worst game this week or the season has been 10 points. He's not giving you any bad weeks. Yeah. And he's given you a bunch of spike weeks. So, you know, right now he has 30, almost 30 more points than Alvin Camara total in total points. Then that's the second number two running back. And I think just that, that value, that value over, you know, the general replacement running back is so high. I think Lamar would be another good one. And I think you could throw Jaden Daniels in there if he can stay for the rest of the year. Right now, Right now he's not probably because he missed a game, but you know, he's in terms of value because you got him relatively late and he's just been incredible. He was like kind of an afterthought in the preseason because people weren't really sure, like, what he would do passing. He's been incredible passer in addition to, you know, running almost as much as any quarterback this year, so.
- [52:59]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [52:59]
Danny Kelly
But I would pick Henry just based on the consistency and the spike weeks that you get from him.
- [53:05]
Bill Simmons
Well, and also I don't think he was a top eight, like spending running back book heading into an auction.
- [53:11]
Joe House
Right.
- [53:12]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, I think he was kind of.
- [53:13]
Bill Simmons
In that second level.
- [53:14]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. Yeah. Because people were a little uncertain about number one, the age, number two, he's going to a new team, new officer.
- [53:19]
Bill Simmons
And also like podcasts like ours where you guys are all blowing Devon Achan.
- [53:24]
Danny Kelly
Well, Craig. Craig to his credit card. Horlbeck was all in on Henry this year and that's like, that's really aged well.
- [53:31]
Bill Simmons
Henry's turned into like just. Just keep taking him until the year when he doesn't have it anymore. Because this usually happens with the receivers, but not. Not running backs.
- [53:40]
Danny Kelly
He's the extreme outlier in every sense.
- [53:43]
Bill Simmons
House, I didn't even tell you my knockout league the one. I mean, not the league you're in, but the league with salt, which. No, no, this is the knockout league with. Oh, different sound.
- [53:52]
Joe House
Oh, that one. Yeah.
- [53:53]
Bill Simmons
My team's a disaster. I had Kirk Cousins as one of my quarterbacks and after week one, when he looked like a mannequin in a department store window, I cut him. I picked somebody else up. Now I'm 2 and 6. Basically. I'm probably out of the playoffs anyway, but it's like nobody's finished me off yet. And now I'm going against Kirk Cousin. It's the rare fantasy revenge. The guy I never shared a wave. Now I'm going. So I fully expect him to have four touchdowns and 700 yards.
- [54:23]
Joe House
You missed out on his 900 yards and 15 touchdowns against Tampa. So amazing.
- [54:28]
Bill Simmons
So upset. Danny, who. Who has provided the most content on the fantasy show this year? What, what single player.
- [54:36]
Danny Kelly
Oh, if you have to do usage.
- [54:37]
Bill Simmons
Rate for players on the show that you've spent the most times talking about, who is it?
- [54:43]
Danny Kelly
That's a really good question. I mean it's always Kyle Pitts pretty much every year for some reason, we just can't. This guy, he's.
- [54:49]
Bill Simmons
He's the third highest tight end right now.
- [54:51]
Danny Kelly
I know he's been back. He's. He's been playing well. He. We have a whole cate dedicated to him. Usually it's two tight ends and a lie. Basically two tight ends that outscored Kyle Pitts and a lie. And it's always just these random guys that outscore Kyle Pitts. But we retired the category because he's back. He's actually good now and I think we're actually kind of in on this. I would say if any one more.
- [55:12]
Bill Simmons
Thing on Pitts, not only is he really good, he's had a couple long plays called back. Yeah, I don't. Which, I don't know. Is there a website that keeps track of that? I know because I have him in my guillotine league and one other league. But he's had two like long ones where he was like celebrating and they're like, ah, flag on the play.
- [55:31]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. That the king of that is George Pickens.
- [55:33]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, no question.
- [55:34]
Danny Kelly
The Kyle Pitts is probably second cow Pitts. I think that play last week where he caught a pass, he like did the reverse stiff arm, you know, the Larry Fitzgerald style reverse.
- [55:43]
Bill Simmons
Kept the farm, kept the ball out and almost fumbled.
- [55:45]
Danny Kelly
And then he almost fumbled it going over the. Right up to the point where he like right up to the point where he almost Dropped the ball, too, earlier, maybe. He did, actually.
- [55:52]
Joe House
He definitely did.
- [55:54]
Danny Kelly
Yeah. I was like, that was the first time in, like, years. I'm like, oh, there's the Kyle Pitts that, like, we thought he was going to be. That's the guy that, you know, the Falcons took before Jamar Chase. And so, yeah, it's good to see him back. He finally starts to look a little healthy, but, you know, he's still kind of. His target rate isn't really where you want it to be. He's still kind of like a tertiary option in this Falcons offense, like Darnell Mooney's, I think, outscoring him still, so can't get too excited about it.
- [56:20]
Bill Simmons
House, are you excited for Brock Bowers to be a $35 tight end next year?
- [56:24]
Joe House
He deserves it. He's incredible. I want to ask Danny a question. As we formulate strategies for next year and what we're seeing over this season in terms of running back performance, are we going to go back to where we were maybe a decade ago, where receivers, you know. Cause we're in this era now where there's three receivers going in the first round of all drafts and there are no receivers. Now who's the top? Like, fans, like, you know, it would have been Nico, and Nico was incredible what he was doing all season. But this is the issue now. The receivers get hurt. I mean, running backs do, too. But are we going to go back? Is it just going to be 10 running backs and then everybody's going to scrap from there?
- [57:08]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, maybe. I mean, this. I want to say I don't have the stat in front of me, but I think receiver production across the NFL is down dramatically this year compared to most years. And I think it's just like there's a lot of these variables. Quarterbacks are not playing as well, not nearly as efficient. Like, all these passes are so much shorter. Basically, teams are, you know, using these little swing passes and short passes to replace the run game, more or less. Now the problem is on the other side, running backs are not being used at a high rate as they used to. Like, you know, I mean, there's. Every team almost now has a pretty strong rotation. There's a handful of guys that are, you know, the quote, unquote, workhorse type players. But, you know, it's. It's give and take. I would say next year we're probably going to see. Because of all this, we're probably going to see like a running back pack first round. It's just going to be those guys that are going to get like 20 carries a game and those are, they're so scarce. You have to go get them.
- [57:58]
Bill Simmons
How about this? Maybe Lamar should just be the first pick in the draft.
- [58:02]
Danny Kelly
I know, right?
- [58:04]
Bill Simmons
Like if you're just trying to, if you were calling people and asking to try to trade for guys on their team, I think Lamar is the quickest. Hang up. Yeah, like fuck you. I'm not trading Lamar. Guys. Guys. Amazing.
- [58:18]
Danny Kelly
When, when he's, when he spent all that or when I, when he lost all that weight this off season, I think that should have been like the biggest sign to be like, okay, he's back. He, he's going to be you know, doing his thing, running around like making guys look stupid. I think when he gained a little bit of weight, he wasn't quite as elusive as a runner. Yeah. But yeah, he's been absolutely incredible.
- [58:38]
Bill Simmons
This guy might be up there too. And I'll tell you this, my guy Drake May, I hope he plays this week but he looks like he's going to put a big fantasy stats because his running, he scoots out and also isn't afraid to run down the middle of the field and take a hit or two which unfortunately backfired on him last week. But um, I think he make. He's a big game hunter and also is going to run the ball 30 to 50 yards. But it seems like we, we might have nailed all three of those quarterbacks.
- [59:08]
Danny Kelly
Yep.
- [59:09]
Bill Simmons
I don't know if you, Dan, if you had to rank the quarterbacks right now for who you'd want would, would Drake May versus Caleb in the two spot, who would you pick?
- [59:19]
Danny Kelly
Probably still Caleb. That maybe that's just take lock from. From like my draft analysis or whatever. But I don't know. Drake looks really good, man. He's like. I think he kind of, for whatever reason people overlooked how good of a runner he was. He was. Yeah, he put up, he put up stats in college as a runner and he was like scrambling around a bunch. He was really dangerous in the red zone. He's almost got like, you know, like a little bit of a Josh Allen to him where he's almost a little too reckless too which is a little nervous. Nervous makes me nervous. But. But yeah, I mean he looks really good out there and obviously with a little more experience and get some weapons around him. He has like no weapons right now, so that doesn't help. But yeah, he could definitely have like an elite upside in the league. I still just, I don't know. I just still, I still Love Caleb for just the special plays he can make out of structure, I think. And he'll start to figure it out a little bit more in structure. I think that offensive system is, you know, a work in progress.
- [60:16]
Bill Simmons
Do your Bears rant. Just. No, I'm not unleashed for 20 seconds. Just.
- [60:20]
Joe House
I can't, I can't, I can't. I mean, they're literally the dumbest football team next next to the Jets. It's an incredible slew of Mensa geniuses in charge on both sides of the football, plus special teams. But the thing I wanted to share, and I know it's obviously insane, I think that if you grab Caleb or you grab Drake May and you put them with Cliff Kingsbury this season with this offensive line and the way that they have schemed up that, that any of those guys might look effing incredible this year in Washington, which is a bananas thing to say.
- [60:56]
Danny Kelly
I know it just sounds insane.
- [60:57]
Bill Simmons
But the only thing with Daniels, he's so accurate, it's just outrageous. Like to have him on one TV and Anthony Richardson on another tv, it was like watching two different sports, you know, like his passes are just always in the perfect spot, whether it's a deep ball, whether it's a little quick out. Like I, and I knew that was the, you know, that was part of the appeal for him coming outta college. But it's really true. Like some there's accuracy and then there's like pinpoint, pinpoint accuracy, which he seems to really have, but really seems like we might have gotten three good ones. I still, I was thinking how with Penix, how unfair it is that Penix isn't playing this year.
- [61:34]
Danny Kelly
Yeah.
- [61:34]
Bill Simmons
That the NFL should have a rule where you could rent out your quarterback. Almost like an Airbnb.
- [61:40]
Danny Kelly
Right.
- [61:40]
Bill Simmons
Like, like they could have just rented Penix to the Steelers for like 10 weeks or for the season. But if Cousins got hurt, they got to immediately get him back.
- [61:50]
Danny Kelly
Don't they do that?
- [61:51]
Bill Simmons
He's just not playing. Yeah, totally.
- [61:54]
Danny Kelly
Dude, don't they do that in soccer? I mean, I'm going to sound like an idiot.
- [61:56]
Bill Simmons
I don't know, international, like little quickie transfer fees or something.
- [61:59]
Danny Kelly
Yeah, no, a hundred percent. It does suck for him because there's a world in which he's like carving up teams too, you know, It'd be really fun to see. Yeah.
- [62:07]
Bill Simmons
You could have put him on House's Washington team. Well, House is the happiest I've ever seen him. All right, Danny Kelly, you can hear him on the ringer fantasy football show. You can read him on theringer.com and you can text him during games if you have his number to wonder what the F is going on with the Seahawks. Good to see you.
- [62:27]
Danny Kelly
You too. Thanks.
- [62:31]
Bill Simmons
This episode is brought to you by the all new reimagined Nissan Kicks. From the bold new exterior to the performance and tech features like intelligent all wheel drive and a Bose Personal plus sound system. Cars where I live, I live in the Los Angeles area and cars are one of the most important things you can have because you're in them a lot because you got to drive around all over the place. You know what's fun? To have a nice car for an everyday commute, to have music and the ability to do hands free stuff. And just to feel safe you can do it. Drive the all new reimagined Nissan Kicks today. Head over to Nissan USA to learn more. Bose Personal plus sound system is an available feature. Bose is a registered trademark in the Bose Corporation. Intelligent all wheel drive cannot prevent collisions or provide enhanced traction in all conditions. Always monitor traffic and weather conditions. This episode is brought to you by Simplisafe. It is football season which means the holidays are coming up and actually Simplisafe is already having a Black Friday sale. So if you're worried about the safety of your home and family, now is the time to get home security. I personally like to use Simplisafe because they can stop intruders before they break into your home. That's kind of the goal. I think they take home security to the next level with their active guard outdoor protection. It's not an old school system. They only take action when somebody is already in your house. No, that's not Simplisafe. They take action before somebody gets in your house. There's no long term contracts, no cancellation fees. It's around $1 a day and it gives me peace of mind and helps me and my family feel protected. So take advantage of this Black Friday sale this week only. Right now you can take 60% off any new system with a select professional monitoring plan. Head to SimpliSafe.com BS to claim your discount and make sure your home is safe this season. Keep your home, your family and your peace of mind protected with Simplisafe. Again go to simplisafe.com/bs that is SimpliSafe with two eyes. There's no safe like Simplisafe. All right, house is still here. We're going to talk about some million dollar picks you weren't on the last two weeks but only because we did four and a half hours of basketball content together two weeks ago. So we gave you a break that one week. Last week I was in town with all the LA dudes. Now we're back, we held the fort. We're only somehow only won $15,000 last week. Even though I thought I nailed the week up 178 for the year.
- [64:56]
Joe House
Bang.
- [64:57]
Bill Simmons
I think this week's really hard. There's only a couple couple that I liked. But give me your favorite coming out of the gate. I want to talk about a bunch of games. What was your favorite game of all of them?
- [65:10]
Joe House
It's a tease. I mean this week has incredible tease lines up properly.
- [65:15]
Bill Simmons
This is tease week. There's teases, there's Bills minus six, Eagles minus seven half, Bengals minus eight and a half, Chiefs minus eight and a half. There's some going the other way teases. So yeah, anyway, go ahead.
- [65:28]
Joe House
Yeah, I mean I absolutely love the Chiefs, you know, tease them down to two and a half home against Tampa on a Monday night. I love Philly. I really think that Philly is going to be coming on here teasing them from seven and a half down to one and a half. I think it's very viable to tease Cleveland up from. From one and a half to seven and a half. Cause like, are the Chargers gonna win by margin in Cleveland? I don't think so. And then the Saints, we'll see what the answer is at quarterback. I wouldn't recommend doing anything with them if Rattler is the quarterback, but all of the signs seem to be pointing at Derek Carr. And if Derek Carr is the quarterback, then we can't continue to miss out on this opportunity of winning money at Carolina's expense. Like, well, we can figure out how to do it. It could be a tease. It could be team total stuff.
- [66:20]
Bill Simmons
Might have. First half, I did this last week where I crossed my fingers that Marcus Mariota was going to be the D.C. quarterback and then like Jada Daniels is going to play. All of a sudden I didn't have Mariota against that Bears defense. So you mentioned the Eagles and they beat the Bengals pretty handily last week. And for me, part of it was I actually took the Bengals in that game, but I thought I was getting T. Higgins and I thought they'd be able to throw on them all game with Jason Higgins and Higgins says play. But that Eagles game might have been more impressive than maybe, maybe I gave it credit for in the moment because I was so mad about the Higgins thing. Like maybe the Eagles are pretty good. I Feel like we've also been down this road before where it's like time to trust the Eagles and then they completely kick you in the nuts. But as we talked about with Danny, it just feels like this Jag season's over. That trade they made trade their left tackle. I know he wasn't playing that great, but that was just really weird. They're like, we got some other guys. Like nobody has other guys sitting on the bench to play left tackle. That's crazy. Brian Thomas is hurt, might not be able to play. ETN has been hurt the whole season and it's like, yeah, yeah, Kirk's done for the year. It just feels like the Eagles and a tease at home feels pretty safe to me. They're going to be able to run. Maybe Peterson coming back there. This would be like the nail in the coffin for that. So I'm with you on that. And then Chiefs, Bucks was the other one. That's like that number is nine. Is eight and a half still. So you can get it to two and a half. The Bucks with no. With no. God with no Evans last week Mayfield was still moving the ball cause who he was playing. But the receivers aren't the same. Their defense is awful. And I just don't see. Are they? This is going to be the team that ends Casey's unbeaten season on a Monday night. I don't see it.
- [68:04]
Joe House
No. And remember the difference between Baker under pressure and Baker not under pressure. Atlanta can has the worst pass rush in the entire NFL. And so Baker was, you know, trying to wheel and deal as best he could. They were competitive for as long as as he could keep them in there. This is, this, this Chiefs thing is a radically different animal.
- [68:24]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I agree. And their defense is bad. Tampa's D, you can move the bomb. You could do whatever. All the, all the advanced stats on them are bad. All right, so we have two. I don't trust the Bengals against the Raiders. That was another one I really wanted to put in. But I don't know what's going to happen with Higgins. The Raiders feel like they're good for one stupid, weird, out of nowhere win every eight weeks. They already had one against Baltimore. They're kind of due. I think that's a stay away. The Bills against the Dolphins as a possible tease. So they, they killed them in week two, even before two got hurt. They have a much better team. Dolphins have had a bunch of injuries already, especially on defense. And yet something's holding me back on it. Is this a kitchen sink game for the Dolphins, they're not kind of out of the playoffs yet. Somebody's going to make the playoffs at 9 and 8 in the AFC like they're not done yet.
- [69:20]
Joe House
It probably is a kitchen sink game for the Dolphins, but if Dopey McDaniel the disc jockey is standing at the sink, I don't want any part of it. The Bills own the Dolphins. JJ Said so on our east coast bias program, TUA is one in seven against the Bills. The Bills just scheme against the Dolphins wonderfully and the Dolphins don't have any answer for it. And it, you know, we'll see. They had no pass rush whatsoever. The Dolphins last they were up 10 points against the Cardinals at home and could not get that across the goal line. That is, that's diabolical how, how bad that is that you can't hold on. But they couldn't get any, any pass rush cause the what's his name Silert is hurt and I don't know if he's going to be back this week. That's the wrong set of circumstances to go up to Buffalo and try and the line has gone from six and a half down to five and a half. So some folks are, are interested in Miami. I am not. I am not one of the people interested in Miami and I'm just fine with you know, Buffalo as a moneyline leg. I don't want to tease, you know, through the zero really that you. There's no value there but you know, I think the Bills are going to handle their business.
- [70:35]
Bill Simmons
So if we're looking at teases, it's Eagles. Maybe it's just Eagles and Chiefs and that's it.
- [70:39]
Joe House
That'd be fine. I would, I'd be perfectly satisfied with that.
- [70:43]
Bill Simmons
Some maybe bets the Colts we talked about earlier plus five and a half against the Vikings and that feels like that should be a three point game. But I also as I said earlier like the Flacco going against Flores and that Vikings D also the Vikings. Two losses in a row, 10 days rest. People seem to think oh now that they Flacco's in there with the Colts, everything's going to be fine. But something's telling me to stay away from this. But I just wanted to make sure you felt the same way.
- [71:15]
Joe House
Yeah, I the back door is open and that's the reason to be nervous. And so you know some smart people I've seen and heard folks making a good argument, a compelling argument for taking Minnesota on the first half line which I kind of like it's like around three or so for the. For them to cover whatever, three and a half maybe. I'm totally fine with that idea. Like Minnesota coming in after that loss against the Rams with that extra time against this Colts team that you know is trying to save its season. But Minnesota showing one again, like we're class. This is a. We're a class team in the first half. And then in the second half, Flacco does some of the stuff that Flacco does. So that would be a reason to stay away from the whole game.
- [71:58]
Bill Simmons
But yeah, the Bears are plus one and a half in Arizona. And I know they're on. They might be on your DMB list, but they are. I was really impressed by their defense. The defensive stats of them are great. Like they're. They're. They're a top six or seven defense by any calculation at this point. And Arizona as a favorite just in general. Arizona with any hint of prosperity makes me nervous. Arizona's 4 and 4 and you go through it and they barely beat the Chargers that one time. Right? Yeah, I mean they, the Chargers really should have won that game.
- [72:36]
Joe House
Right.
- [72:36]
Bill Simmons
So that just immediately makes them 3 and 5. They had that weird comeback against Miami that they somehow won the game. I had taken that off of TV, so I'm just not sure they feel like a 4 and 4 team to me. Set. So just staring at it, going, ah, trying to talk myself into the Bears. But I think you're right. I think they're a DMB.
- [72:55]
Joe House
Yeah. Their wins. They have three, three wins in their last four games at three and one again, they beat the 49ers by one point. They beat the Chargers by two points and they beat the Dolphins by one point. And they got smacked by the Packers. They got smashed by the Bills. Well, the Bills actually did it in the second half. But in any event, they're too inconsistent. I just can't under any circumstances have anything to do with that Bears coaching staff because they have shown us without any hesitation or reservation, they will snatch defeat right the F out of the jaws of victory.
- [73:37]
Bill Simmons
I heard that. I heard that Eberfluss was working a little background for the Yankees during the World Series about base running and defense.
- [73:47]
Joe House
It's amazing.
- [73:49]
Bill Simmons
Giving them some tips. He was an unpaid consultant.
- [73:52]
Joe House
I took a picture of all of the errors and the baserutting miscues and all of that. And I thought long and hard about sending it to the group text to JJ last night. And I didn't do it because I love jj. I'm going to save it for this Weekend. I'm definitely going to send it.
- [74:08]
Bill Simmons
The Yankee fans moved into a weird thing where they, they immediately were like, I knew this was going to happen and just that they did the finger pointing thing. And it's like you definitely didn't know it was going to happen. When Judge homered in the first inning and you're up to nothing and you were like, yeah, that's right, man. Our house. We're not going down here. Browns, Chargers, Browns plus one and a half at home against the Chargers. And I like the Browns a lot more before the defensive injuries. I think I'm, I've landed as a stay away on this one.
- [74:36]
Joe House
I'm with you on it. It'll be fun. I'm going to root for the Browns. It will be a good measuring tape game for the Chargers because if we, if the Chargers are legit, then they better go.
- [74:48]
Bill Simmons
They should be able to move the ball in this game even though the Browns are on. Yeah, I'm with you. Lions, packers, packers are plus two and a half at home.
- [74:57]
Joe House
Oh, two and a half.
- [74:59]
Bill Simmons
Plus two and a half. Looks like Jordan loves playing.
- [75:02]
Joe House
So that. Yeah. Cause it was three and a half yesterday. So the line is moving in the direction of like we were feeling stronger about the idea that Jordan Love is going to play.
- [75:09]
Bill Simmons
I think he's going to play. That's my take. Knowing nothing and having no contacts in the packers organization.
- [75:15]
Joe House
Well, and you know these, all the teams lie now. They wait until they try and get advantages as they should. But like we really don't know who's playing in any games until 12:55 on Sunday.
- [75:26]
Bill Simmons
I will say this. I think we have a better sense now on the Thursday, Friday with the practice and what's released on what feels doable and not doable. Like even the Daniels thing last week on Thursday it was like, all right, he's not written off yet and they're not saying he's out, which makes me think he's probably going to play. You just have to. You're basically turning into Matlock trying to figure it out.
- [75:49]
Joe House
It's. It's true. But like who had Puka and Cooper playing? Right, right.
- [75:54]
Bill Simmons
That's true. So Lions on grass is the Lions on grass. Outdoors would be the fear. The counter would be you're getting the Lions under a field goal and they're the best team in the league and why wouldn't you just take that? They're going to run the ball all over Green Bay and do some play action stuff. And the counter. That would be well no Jamison Williams, you know, take out St. Brown. Packers have a good secondary. To me it's a stay away. I want to watch it. I don't. I don't think I need money on it. Or I can go packers and a teaser.
- [76:28]
Joe House
Yeah, I'm playing Packers money line packers in a tease. Look at the weather forecast. Precipitation right now high of 52 degrees. Winds 15 miles an hour or more. Precipitation likelihood 60% or higher at game time. You know who doesn't like playing in those weather conditions? Jared effing golf. You know who's first outdoor game of the NFL season is this coming Sunday? Bill Simmons. Jared Effing golf. You know what the numbers show about Jared Golf in outdoor games? That's one thing. I think he's around a 500 quarterback. All of his numbers are dramatically lower in terms of completion percentages, accuracy, all that kind of advanced stuff. Put some precipitation in the mix, put some adverse weather conditions into the mix. Add that filter to the Jared Goff scenario and then. And then see now look you can. One could make a very compelling case. I would listen to it of Detroit trying to run the ball because they have a multi headed rush attack and they have an extraordinary offensive line. And if you want to make that case, I'll listen and not dismiss it out of hand. But the Lions are not going to be able to put pressure on Jordan Love and the packers that the Hutchinson thing is really going to be felt this honorable opinion.
- [78:01]
Bill Simmons
You're going bad weather golf outdoors with some things going against them. Lambo crazy crowd.
- [78:09]
Joe House
Crazy crowd.
- [78:10]
Bill Simmons
Maybe they division the Lions run a little bit.
- [78:13]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [78:14]
Bill Simmons
Lack of a second receiver. All right.
- [78:16]
Joe House
I'm just talking it. I just want to make sure the considerations are out there.
- [78:20]
Bill Simmons
I hate going against the Lions but I understand they're.
- [78:23]
Joe House
They have the best against the spread record of any team in the last three years.
- [78:28]
Bill Simmons
We got the tease.
- [78:30]
Joe House
Could be the way. Tease the pack up. Tease the pack up.
- [78:33]
Bill Simmons
Packers minus two and a half is plus 1:48. Wait, what?
- [78:37]
Joe House
Packers minus two and a half is Plus 1:48.
- [78:42]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [78:43]
Joe House
I want it to be more than that. Okay. I want a better price for that.
- [78:47]
Bill Simmons
Straight money line is plus 1 24.
- [78:50]
Joe House
Yeah. Okay.
- [78:51]
Bill Simmons
I. To me if the weather is going to be super weird and wonky, the over under is out for me.
- [78:57]
Joe House
Sure, sure. Yeah. I'm not, I'm not in here trying to argue for a total one way or the other. I think the packers tease two and a half up to eight and a half even though we know that Detroit's capable of winning by margin. Not in these kind of matchups. Not in this matchup. Not. It all depends on love. Obviously, things can change. But if love is a go, I like the Packers.
- [79:20]
Bill Simmons
Well, we don't know if love is a go, which would be a reason to maybe not do anything with this game. What if they decide on Sunday that he's not playing and Malik Willis is somehow in our lives?
- [79:29]
Joe House
Then we lose money. That's what happens. Although Malik Willis, you know, in his limited sample size. Lafleur. Lafleur is incredible. Let's just give him some flowers so that he hears it.
- [79:42]
Bill Simmons
Broncos are plus eight and a half in Baltimore. Baltimore still having some cornerback health issues. Sean Payton. There's back doors always open in Baltimore.
- [79:57]
Joe House
Lord have mercy. The back door is always open.
- [79:59]
Bill Simmons
Kind of like the Broncos.
- [80:02]
Joe House
Here's the issue. I do think Marlon Humphreys back. I do think the backup for him that also missed last week is back as well. And even with the issues that Baltimore has on defense, the idea of Bo Nicks going into Baltimore and you know, the thing that Denver has done with great success is is throw the ball. That that kid in his last six games has at least four games over 200 yards passing. And you know, against the Panthers. Now, again, the Panthers are D league. That's not a legit measuring stick. But they went away from the run. Neither one of their running backs, I think, got to even 50 yards again against the Panthers. They're going to have to try and establish the run against Baltimore. Except for Baltimore is the best rush run defense in the league. And then I do think that even with what we've seen out of Baltimore in terms of its secondary, the vulnerabilities there, I don't know, man. I'm not under any circumstances advocating laying eight and a half because we just can't trust Baltimore to keep that door shut in the fourth quarter. But that's another great teaser. Eight and a half down to two and a half for Baltimore. You don't like that?
- [81:22]
Bill Simmons
What if I gave you Denver up to 11 and a half with the over adjusted at 38 and a half and now plus 103.
- [81:32]
Joe House
I love the over. The over part of it is not an issue for me. Baltimore can win by margin. Baltimore, that's. That's the best offense. I think their offense is better this year than last year and they, that offense last year made Lamar an mvp.
- [81:49]
Bill Simmons
And it's better this year cause Derrick Henry. We disagree and I'm crossing it up.
- [81:53]
Joe House
Okay. Okay.
- [81:54]
Bill Simmons
I think, I think Both of us could be right. I do like Sean Payton against that Ravens team. I also could see the Ravens just running all over them and the Broncos have had an easy schedule and you'd be like, God damn it, why didn't I realize this is going to happen? All right, my two favorites and I'm probably the Falcons Cowboys game, which now is Falcons minus three.
- [82:15]
Joe House
Oh, it's moving.
- [82:17]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Move from minus two and a half to minus three. And I love the Falcons because I think Dallas sucks.
- [82:24]
Joe House
Wow.
- [82:24]
Bill Simmons
I think they stink. Wow. And yet this is the perfect team for them to play because Atlanta doesn't have a pass rush.
- [82:33]
Joe House
Exactly.
- [82:35]
Bill Simmons
And Dak can just throw the ball basically every down.
- [82:38]
Joe House
He can.
- [82:39]
Bill Simmons
And hang in the game.
- [82:40]
Joe House
He can.
- [82:41]
Bill Simmons
I still think the Falcons are going to win.
- [82:43]
Joe House
Okay.
- [82:44]
Bill Simmons
But I also think we're going to have a lot of points. And my question is, is there. Could you do some chicanery with this one? Where do you stand on the game?
- [82:52]
Joe House
First of all, I agree with the latter half of your thesis. I do think that the Cowboys are going to move the ball. And there is with Dakota, with Dak as quarterback coming off of a loss, they're very good as underdogs and they're good as road underdogs. His record as a dog coming off of a loss is like in the 60% range under some of these, these sort of circumstances that we're, we're measuring and are relevant to this, the fact that Atlanta can't get home with a pass rush at all. And here's the concern I would have if you wagered on Atlanta. We watched Dallas go into Pittsburgh on a Sunday night game and Pittsburgh really couldn't get home at all.
- [83:36]
Bill Simmons
And Dakota, they had some injuries.
- [83:39]
Joe House
They did. They. Dak picked that defense apart and it was with a bunch of dudes that coming into that game, you know, Tolbert had the game winning touchdown with incredible finger strength. Like, you know, Turpin factored into that. The second string tight end. You know, I just think that, that it's, it's a susceptible spot. I do like the idea of points in this game though, because Cousins and these weapons really have been meshing well.
- [84:07]
Bill Simmons
What if I gave you what. What adjusted over under would excite you?
- [84:14]
Joe House
What do you mean in terms of a total?
- [84:16]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Like what if I was able to get this to 45 and a half?
- [84:21]
Joe House
I mean, I'm fine with that.
- [84:22]
Bill Simmons
Over.
- [84:22]
Joe House
I don't have any issue with that. Over.
- [84:24]
Bill Simmons
Because you could do a little adjusted. Dallas plus seven and a half with the over. Of 45 and a half.
- [84:29]
Joe House
Okay. Okay.
- [84:30]
Bill Simmons
And that's basically even odds. Minus one.
- [84:33]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [84:34]
Bill Simmons
Good. And then we root for points.
- [84:35]
Joe House
Right?
- [84:36]
Bill Simmons
And Dallas to hang around.
- [84:38]
Joe House
Love it. That's a good one.
- [84:39]
Bill Simmons
The thing that worries me is Atlanta running the ball on them and just like just running the fucking shit out of the ball. And Dallas never has the ball because Atlanta always has the ball.
- [84:48]
Joe House
Fair enough.
- [84:49]
Bill Simmons
I think Dallas going to throw. I had that Pittsburgh game in my head, too. If you give Dak time, he just moves the. But he moves the chains. He finds dudes. And that's kind of what you have to do against Atlanta. That's what everybody that's beating them is just throwing the ball on them and move the ball down the field on them. All right, so Dallas plus seven and a half. Maybe I could get that over, under to. I wonder if I could.
- [85:13]
Joe House
I mean, you could do a basic tease. Again, you're not supposed to tease totals, but if you tease Dallas up to nine and that totaled down to 46 and a half. I mean, 45 and a half. Yeah, that's a. That's a minus 120 tees. It's not the same price as the price that you have at seven and a half. That's a. You get a. That's even odds. That's a better price.
- [85:38]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, so we'll do that.
- [85:40]
Joe House
Okay.
- [85:40]
Bill Simmons
So. So Dallas seven and a half. And then we get to root for Dallas and get mad if they fuck us.
- [85:46]
Joe House
Who has sent mad text to Cuz.
- [85:49]
Bill Simmons
And to Raheem with the over of 45 and a half and that's minus 108.
- [85:56]
Joe House
Great.
- [85:57]
Bill Simmons
Better than a good one.
- [85:58]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [85:59]
Bill Simmons
And then we love the Rams against the Seahawks. Do you need to talk that one out?
- [86:04]
Joe House
I don't know. I mean, it's Cooper cup these nuts on the field. Like an amazing opportunity for this Rams team with their offensive line. And Seattle's down. The vibes are bad. You heard Danny?
- [86:18]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. You could see they've lost four of their last five. Their defense is 29th against the run. And this feels very Ramsey to me.
- [86:28]
Joe House
Hookah and cup these nuts. I love that combo.
- [86:32]
Bill Simmons
I also like Stafford as a road qb.
- [86:35]
Joe House
As do I.
- [86:36]
Bill Simmons
Not giving a shit about nothing. All right? And we're staying away from the Bears.
- [86:43]
Joe House
That's my humble opinion. Dream is one of his favorite bets. I understand the thesis. I just can't be in the situation of needing the Bears to close out a game. In watching those dunderheads, I mean, it like took miraculous Morona Morana. Moronics Miraculous. Moronics. For Chicago to give that game away. The handoff to the offensive lineman. Seriously, one of the dumbest plays of the decade. I want Chicago to lose for the rest of the season so that I can buy them to win the super bowl next year. When Mike Brable is the quarterback, I mean the coach, when Mike Rabel comes in with all with his coaching staff, with the talent that the Bears have on both sides of the ball. That team is talented, but those big dummies and you know, the players hold their coaches in contempt. It was hilarious. One of my favorite undercurrents of hard knocks this season was dumb dumb Eber fluss making Caleb Williams go sit with him in his office and act like they're having one on one conversations. And cape Caleb Williams could barely hide his disdain for dummy Eber flutes. I mean, I just enjoyed it so much. But here we are. Those chickens have come home to roost. He'll be a fine defensive coordinator somewhere. By the way, it's good defense.
- [88:09]
Bill Simmons
So we only have $3 million picks this week. Oh, I think that's fine.
- [88:16]
Joe House
Okay. I'm fine if you're fine. I'm fine.
- [88:19]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I don't really love the week and I think you get mistakes with some of this stuff when you start overcompensating and grabbing stuff. Yeah, we disagreed on a bunch of stuff which I think is usually a bad sign. I do, I do wish the Tennessee line was like two and a half. Cause I would take them against the Pats.
- [88:38]
Joe House
Ah, I kind of like the Pats.
- [88:40]
Bill Simmons
I can't imagine the Pats would win two games in a row.
- [88:43]
Joe House
I kind of like the Pats.
- [88:45]
Bill Simmons
Well, we'll see if Drake may plays or not. All right, it's time. The million dollar picks for week nine. We won $15,000 last week and now we are up for the season. $178,000. Not bad after eight weeks.
- [89:01]
Joe House
Great job. Great job.
- [89:02]
Bill Simmons
We're scaling back a little this week. We're not going to get to a million dollars. We. We are betting $200,000 on the following games. The Rams plus one and a half in Seattle. We're bullish on the Rams in a whole bunch of different ways. The Rams for the division five to one. Intriguing little flyer if you want to take it. Rams for the playoffs plus 310. The Cup. Puka Stafford. Kyron Williams.
- [89:28]
Joe House
Not Kieran Kai. No, Kyren Williams. Kyrie. Like Kyron. Kyrie.
- [89:34]
Bill Simmons
Kyren.
- [89:35]
Joe House
The lines. Minus one and a half speech.
- [89:36]
Bill Simmons
Dyslexia.
- [89:37]
Joe House
The lines. Minus 1 and a half. You said plus one and a half.
- [89:40]
Bill Simmons
The Rams are minus one and a half. That's what I mean.
- [89:42]
Joe House
Right? Yeah.
- [89:43]
Bill Simmons
Rams minus one and a half against the Seahawks in Seattle. We're taking them 200,000 on that. It is teas week. We're going to scale it back a tiny bit and just take two games that we love. The Eagles minus seven half against the Jags. You know, it's really fun betting against Coach Middle seat. How many more chances are we going to have to get? Not enough Eagles with six crappy defenses coming up here. Shout out to the bundle for that one. But Jalen hurts 20 to one MVP. We're looking at that one. Anyway. Eagles minus seven and a half teased them down six points with the Chiefs on Monday night against a terrible Tampa defense and poor Baker Mayfield who doesn't have Godwin or Mike Evans teasing them from minus eight and a half six points. Eagles, Chiefs both have to win 200 on that. And then last but not least, this. We can't lose either way because this is fake money and if the Cowboys F us then we just get to send angry texts to Cousin Sal. Cowboys plus seven and a half parlayed with the over with the over 45 and a half in Atlanta. We expect a lot of points in this game. That is minus 108. Do you want to do an anytime touchdown score bet too? Is there anybody you like?
- [91:02]
Joe House
I mean, Derek Henry every week. What is it minus 300 for him to score a touchdown this week against Denver? It's probably some preposterous number but well, we'll, we'll throw.
- [91:11]
Bill Simmons
We won't put money on that. But that. That'll be our recommendation. Derek Henry those are the million dollar picks for week nine. House, before you go, we got to go quickly through some MBA stuff so we got to take one more break. This episode is brought to you by Workday. Get the whole band together with Workday and pair finance and HR on one platform for an epic performance. With Workday AI at the core, you'll make confident decisions faster than ever and you'll drive flawless business and finance operations with an agile platform that constantly evolves. To future proof your organization, be a Finance and HR Rockstar with Workday. Visit workday.com to learn more. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season and Uber Eats is dropping undefeated deals on all your game day favorites. This week's score Buy one Get one Free Crunch Wrap Supremes from Taco Bell Only on ubereats and if you're craving even more, we've got you covered with game game deals on pizza, burgers, tacos and more all season long. Uber eats official on demand food delivery Partner of the NFL, order Taco Bell for game day now through 1117 24. Second item of equal or lesser value. Terms apply. See app for details. All right, House, we wanted to just quickly dive into over unders with the NBA again. It's been. We're in day 10. We don't know what's going to happen tonight, but there's already been some movement, there's been some regrets, there's been some self congratulations. One of the things that's really moved Memphis, the over under for them has dropped from. I think it was 47 and a half when we did the podcast with Versailles a month ago. It's now 44 and a half.
- [92:55]
Joe House
Oh, wow.
- [92:56]
Bill Simmons
And it's not looking great for them. And we were wondering in that west carousel, who was going to be good, who's not going to be good? Was somebody going to get nudged out that we weren't expecting? And Memphis has had some injuries already. Verno's making just a ton of excuses. He's bringing up things that happened two years ago, three years ago.
- [93:12]
Joe House
Poor Verno. Poor Verno.
- [93:14]
Bill Simmons
45 wins seems ambitious for this team, but that one jumped out of me. What'd you think?
- [93:21]
Joe House
I still. We all took the under, I think. Didn't we all take the under? Yeah, we. No. Nobody locked it, though, because there's just too much variance. We haven't really seen Ja get going. He hasn't been up to his level yet. We've seen it in, you know, fits and starts. But if. When is the team going to be healthy? That. That's the thing we keep saying. Well, you know, let's see this team when they have all their guys. When is that going to be? When is, you know, Triple J is back. Is he. Is he. Is he good? Like, how good is he going to be? Canard still, you know, dinged. Like, when are we going to see that, that. That team and with all of its strength, where they're able to get on a stretch and run it on out. I mean, also, I'd play the under.
- [94:05]
Bill Simmons
Do they seem as special as they did three years ago? Just because the league's so much more talented? Like their nucleus, which seemed really cool three years ago. Now it's. I look around league pass and it feels like 15 teams have a cool nucleus and I just don't see them from a talent Standpoint, swimming in the pool of some of these other teams. So that. That was one. We both had Atlanta over 36 and a half. That's dropped to 35 and a half. You just watched them twice against your Wizards. What were your thoughts?
- [94:36]
Joe House
I don't know what's going on. If the idea is they're experimenting with lineups. If there are injuries that I'm unaware of on Atlanta, like I need. I haven't gone deep into the Hawks hive to see. Yeah, I don't know what's going on, but David Roddy played 32 minutes last night and had the green light. You had the green light from coach, Coach Snyder. They can't defend anyone. Jonas Valenti's what a guy. He already. I'm ready to crown him.
- [95:13]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, trade him now. When can you trade him?
- [95:17]
Joe House
He's an amazing stabilizing force. He was openly coaching on the floor, the young guy. So Washington played all three of the guys that they drafted in the first round in this most recent draft. I mean, Sar actually looked pretty good. Sar had a couple of moves. He knocked down a couple of threes.
- [95:35]
Bill Simmons
Bob Carroll, pretty good. Like he was able to run in a straight line back and forth. He.
- [95:42]
Joe House
No, he made it. He. He looked, you know, decent. But this is the Hawks defense. Washington scored 133 points last night without really breaking a sweat. I don't know what the. They have no answer for Valentunas and the Wizards, you know, cut them to death. I. I'm worried about the Hawks. I'm worried.
- [96:03]
Bill Simmons
I'm a little worried too, because you shouldn't be losing to the Wizards.
- [96:06]
Joe House
Not back to back games.
- [96:08]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, that's pretty rough. We like Brooklyn. It was 18 and a half when we did it. It's now up to 20 and a half.
- [96:15]
Joe House
Sure.
- [96:16]
Bill Simmons
And it makes sense from what I'm watching. They're super competitive in these games. Cam Thomas, who we made fun of a week ago, the guys scoring, the guy scoring, you know, defenses are like now gearing to stop him and he's still getting points. So Schroeder, I don't know what they're going to do because the team's almost a little too confident whether they're going to try to figure out how to sabotage that. But they've jumped out at me as like they were in the running for worst team in the league. I don't think they are right.
- [96:44]
Joe House
They play. They play hard and you know, and.
- [96:48]
Bill Simmons
Actually could have beaten Denver, by the way too. Oh, yeah. Their record. They could have a winning record right now?
- [96:53]
Joe House
Absolutely. No, they're, they're, they're, they're live. If they keep playing this hard and their guys are committed, they're on the same page. They're playing hard for Jordy. I think that, you know, Jordy, at some point management might step in and say, look, look, look, we need to take it and we'll start doing some rotations out of that Jordy.
- [97:09]
Bill Simmons
Here's some Alibaba stock. Can you just play Ben Simmons in crunch time and hope the other team fouls him?
- [97:15]
Joe House
But, but right now they, they're, they're live. I like weird team.
- [97:20]
Bill Simmons
Like they bring Claxton off the bench, the Cam Thomas stuff, some of the possessions with him. He looks like a 30 point scorer and we made fun of him on the over under pot about how he's a good, good stats, bad team guy, but he was making. I might have to usher an apology soon.
- [97:42]
Joe House
Let's just let it play out a little bit. We're still in the weird season right now.
- [97:47]
Bill Simmons
The Bulls are up to 30 and a half, which matches the eye test. Yeah, it was I think 28 and a half when we did it. But you know that it's a team that has a lot of professional basketball players on offense and they're kind of a pain in the ass to play. I've actually been pretty impressed by them.
- [98:06]
Joe House
That's another team that's playing hard. They're not playing to tank and they're. I don't even know that they're necessarily auditioning assets for the purposes of trading them. I think they're going to try and play and I think they're going to try and make the play in. That's how they, that what we've seen so far. And they do have talent. I mean part of the case that we discussed with Russello at the over under pod was like, what's the rebound for Giddy? What's, what's good? Giddy look like he's got the keys to the car. He looks pretty good to me.
- [98:34]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, they, you know, conversely, like when, like when you're watching Atlanta and I still like that I'm not ready to give up on the Hawks yet, but they look like kind of a mess. The interior not look like a mess.
- [98:47]
Joe House
Yeah, right. The interior defense for Atlanta is an abomination. Literally. If they, they should trade for Jonas Valanciunas that they might win, you know, 45. They, they're.
- [98:57]
Bill Simmons
Well, I don't know if you know.
- [98:57]
Joe House
Their defense, they just don't have a.
- [99:01]
Bill Simmons
Body the Cavs, one of our great ones.
- [99:05]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [99:05]
Bill Simmons
What do we have them before the year that was like 48 and a half.
- [99:08]
Joe House
It was the high 40s. Yeah.
- [99:10]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, it was like 48 and a half. That is up to 52 and a half on FanDuel. And then if you go to the division, which I am proud to say, I am a Cavs division ticket holder because I was in Boston betting making FanDuel bets like a month ago, the Cavs are now minus 140 for the Central. The Bucks are plus 270. The Pacers are plus 3 40. And I gotta be honest, I don't think those Cavs odds are. I actually think those are pretty good odds. I think they should be like two to one favorites. Right?
- [99:40]
Joe House
Sure. Sure. The way, the way they listen was the thing. This was the idea coming in and why we were so bullish on them. We were like, you know, let's see Kenny Atkinson with this team. Remember how Kenny Atkinson had wings, how he nurtured wings?
- [99:54]
Bill Simmons
Let's see Kenny Atkinson with like a healthy Garland and a Mitchell who knows he's going to be there and a team that's been together for three years. It looks great.
- [100:02]
Joe House
Mobley and Jarrett and him empowering. Mobley especially, like you can't over state how impactful his assertiveness has been thus far.
- [100:14]
Bill Simmons
What do you think a division parlay of okc, Cleveland and the Celtics is? All three of those to win their divisions? What would your guess be for that? Is it okc, Cleveland, Boston?
- [100:25]
Joe House
Can you get it to even odds? A tiny bit better than even odds?
- [100:28]
Bill Simmons
What if I told you it was plus 268?
- [100:31]
Joe House
Oh, wow. What am I misunderstanding about this?
- [100:35]
Bill Simmons
The Celtics odds, they're still only minus 210 for the Atlantic because people still believe in the knicks and then OKC because of Minnesota's in there. They're only minus 2 20. And those odds seem crazy to me.
- [100:47]
Joe House
I agree with this.
- [100:48]
Bill Simmons
What would have to happen for OKC not to have the best record in that division?
- [100:52]
Joe House
I had both of those teams winning their divisions in the -400 fight. Like we've seen enough. Like we've only seen five games, but that's enough for me.
- [101:00]
Bill Simmons
Totally. I was really surprised by that. All right, a couple more over unders because this is really fun and we haven't even gotten to the super fun one yet. And I can't, I can't wait to discuss it. Denver still holding tight at 49 and a half.
- [101:18]
Joe House
Oh, under it was 51 and a.
- [101:20]
Bill Simmons
Half when we, when we did the pot under. That seems they're going to win 50 games. I don't see that at all.
- [101:28]
Joe House
You're allowed to curse on the Bill Simmons podcast. Fuck no. They're not winning 50 games. What would have to happen?
- [101:34]
Bill Simmons
Westbrook would have to have like a complete career resurgence.
- [101:38]
Joe House
There is they, they have one of the worst benches in the NBA. They walked in like this is disrespectful. Honestly, it's disrespectful to Joker for this tension between, you know, in the, in the coach. Yes. And the personnel decisions that have been made. You can't use up the Joker three time mvp. And we're going to just waste away their opportunity to really compete because they gave Michael Porter Jr. A giant goddamn contract. And this is the thing that kills teams in the NBA. You cannot pay shitty role good players like super effing stars. And that's what they did. And now they're going to pay the price for it.
- [102:22]
Bill Simmons
It almost sounds like you have personal experience as a fan with a team doing that.
- [102:29]
Joe House
Ted. 15 years worth 1540. The most recent 15 years though of you know, Arenas, who immediately does that include?
- [102:39]
Bill Simmons
Andre Blatch. I mean that was my favorite you guys. Amnestying Andre Blatch for his extension kicked in was my favorite NBA moment of the century.
- [102:48]
Joe House
But that was only a three year contract. That was the best.
- [102:52]
Bill Simmons
What was better than that ever in the history of front offices.
- [102:54]
Joe House
I mean Jan Mahin me got a four year $50 million deal. Go back and look. It's. It's amazing. Washington's the best.
- [103:03]
Bill Simmons
What was the trade when you traded the Steph Curry pick? It was for Randy Foy and Mike Miller.
- [103:08]
Joe House
Yeah, that's what, that's what it was. That was the trade. Because you could have had your choice.
- [103:13]
Bill Simmons
Of Ricky Rubio pre ACL injury or Steph Curry.
- [103:17]
Joe House
True. That's true. Those were the choices. Yes, correct. That's right.
- [103:21]
Bill Simmons
Unbelievable. See, people don't know the NBA history. They think the NBA started when Kobe won his last title in the Lakers in 2010 and LeBron went to Miami. That was the start of the NBA. Other shit happened, including that Clippers over under one of my locks. Was Clippers under 37 and a half. Now they did lose to Portland last night.
- [103:42]
Joe House
Yes.
- [103:42]
Bill Simmons
But they're over. Has jumped to 38 and a half. And I still feel okay with my position. I gotta be honest.
- [103:51]
Joe House
Yeah, I look, they play hard and they play defense. That's the thing that has impressed me the most with the Clippers not last night. Well, I mean, you know you're going to have bad spots schedule wise throughout the NBA season and who knows what kind of mischief folks might have got into. There are always sub stories about losses. But I was so impressed by the way that the Clippers played. They had Golden State. Yeah, that was. But that was.
- [104:20]
Bill Simmons
For some reason the Clippers have always played Golden State. Well, there's certain teams. Indiana always, always looks really good against Boston or really horrible. Like there's certain matchups that just seem to. For whatever reason, the Clippers do well against them. Lakers are up to 44 and a half, which looked a lot more enticing until they lost by 30 against Cleveland. It's like, yeah, this is what happens when you play young athletic teams. I still feel like they're going to be around that number. I'm glad I don't have that as a lock either way and I guess it'll depend on the AD health. Here's one though. Miami, when we did it, I think it was 44 and a half. Now it's 43 and a half. They feel very tradish to me. I am on Jimmy Butler trade watch now. Like I'm just ready.
- [105:08]
Joe House
Didn't they basically announce, didn't Pat Riley basically say when he publicly called out Butler as the summer arrived that he's essentially available?
- [105:21]
Bill Simmons
Golden State or Houston if you had to pick a team for him.
- [105:24]
Joe House
Oh, wow.
- [105:24]
Bill Simmons
Just for being a basketball fan with no dog in the race.
- [105:29]
Joe House
Well, who can Golden State give Miami that helps Miami situation in any way, shape or form.
- [105:35]
Bill Simmons
It's probably like, it's like Kaminga Wiggins one more contract and a couple picks.
- [105:43]
Joe House
I mean those like, oh, we want Golden State's, you know, afterthoughts. I don't know. Houston is much more viable to me because they have like a bunch of.
- [105:53]
Bill Simmons
Young talent and dying to do a three for one too. Yeah, I hit that last week. Okay. The Milwaukee Bucks.
- [106:00]
Joe House
Oh, poor Doc.
- [106:02]
Bill Simmons
They're over. Under is down to 46 and a half.
- [106:05]
Joe House
It's still too high.
- [106:07]
Bill Simmons
I think when we did it was it. It was 50 and a half or 51 and a half.
- [106:11]
Joe House
It was right around that 51, 50. It might have been high. 40 nines even. It was close. It was up.
- [106:17]
Bill Simmons
Where do you stand on the 46 and a half?
- [106:20]
Joe House
I would still take the under. I mean, I'm not hesitating. There's no reservations about it whatsoever. You know, every other day it turns out it's once a weekday.
- [106:29]
Bill Simmons
And I named him that Last week everybody or last year everyone made fun of me. He's good once a week and then he plays two other games.
- [106:38]
Joe House
It's. It's too much. And honestly, you know, I kept giving you a hard time when we were doing the over under pod about talking about the idea of Giannis maybe, you know, looking to take me somewhere else.
- [106:50]
Bill Simmons
That's what you did. You made me feel like a prick.
- [106:54]
Joe House
They have continued to invest in him. They've given him every extension he's been eligible for. But that's not a competitive team. They have no answers. Their answers are to trade all of those guys. They need to start trading guys now. They can't wait.
- [107:09]
Bill Simmons
Like, who wants their guys?
- [107:10]
Joe House
If there's any. Brook Lopez. Well, I mean, Brooklyn, like Brooke Lopez as a, you know, veteran. Like a three point stabilizing team.
- [107:17]
Bill Simmons
Like to New Orleans. Yeah, yeah.
- [107:18]
Joe House
Right, right, right, right. Do it now. Don't wait. That you have no chance. That team is dead. That. That is a dead on arrival team.
- [107:27]
Bill Simmons
Well, it was 50 and a half when we did the pot, so it's dropped four wins, which is a lot.
- [107:31]
Joe House
Yeah, that tells you all you need to know.
- [107:34]
Bill Simmons
The Oklahoma City is around the same. Orlando is still the same at 47 and a half, which I was really surprised by.
- [107:43]
Joe House
Why?
- [107:44]
Bill Simmons
Because they look like a 50 win team to me. I thought that would have bumped up like a win. We locked in on them with blocks for over 47 half. So feeling good. Okay, this is another classic. So before the year, the Philadelphia 76ers over under 50 and a half. What do you think it is now?
- [108:06]
Joe House
47 and a half.
- [108:08]
Bill Simmons
46 and a half.
- [108:09]
Joe House
God damn it.
- [108:10]
Bill Simmons
So the Bucks and the Sixers have both dropped four wins in 10 days since the start of the season. And by the way, I think I'd like the under.
- [108:18]
Joe House
I understand. I went back to look at the sheet and I couldn't believe that I took their over. I don't know what I was.
- [108:26]
Bill Simmons
You were scared of the embiid thing and I was telling you that there was stuff. There were rumors about his knee in September.
- [108:32]
Joe House
Well, I. Part of the. For me, I'm sure, was the fact that I thought that Paul George and Maxie were going to be enough. I thought Paul George would be playing basketball by now. He's not. I don't need.
- [108:46]
Bill Simmons
When we did the podcast to be.
- [108:47]
Joe House
Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's a three week injury and that had just happened. It happened in the 24 hours before we sat down and.
- [108:55]
Bill Simmons
Stop making excuses. You fucked up. It Was a fuck up.
- [108:58]
Joe House
I did it. Is a fuck up. I'm just saying, you know, I imagine.
- [109:01]
Bill Simmons
You know what else is a fuck up? Pretending that Embiid was on a rest program when he's fucking hurt. Also a mistake.
- [109:07]
Joe House
It's so weird. Why did they do that? Why say anything?
- [109:10]
Bill Simmons
Because they didn't want to be embarrassed. Because they gave him extension. He was fucking hurt.
- [109:15]
Joe House
What was their choice?
- [109:17]
Bill Simmons
How about this? That they let him play in the Olympics and it's like, whoa, that's not their job. It's a player. It's free. Will the players get to do Embiid and Kawhi going to the Olympics is one of the biggest jokes of this decade. That either of those guys thought that was a good idea and that their teams had to pretend publicly that it was a good idea to go along with it. Yeah, yeah, no, it'll be good. It'll be good for you. It's good for your brand. Embiid should have been in a fucking hyperbaric chamber for six months, literally getting training at altitude. Like, what were we doing?
- [109:46]
Joe House
Well, here's the thing.
- [109:46]
Bill Simmons
And the Kawhi thing's ridiculous.
- [109:48]
Joe House
It's bad for Embiid in the sense of performing for the team that pays him and performing in the league that is, you know, the mo. The true way that he's going to be compensated. But for his. He played great in some of those games.
- [110:05]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, he did.
- [110:06]
Joe House
And there were some, like, genuine Embiid moments. And he has that medal now. And I do think that there was. You know, we've talked about this in the past with these international competitions. Some of that winning dust might have rubbed off on him. Being around those guys and watching how they did it. Like, he hasn't been around very much. Winning dust in his career and seeing him. Why, you know, he's on the floor when Steph goes off. He's on the floor with LeBron. I. That that all could ultimately pay off, because, really, it won't matter until April. But for the purposes of over under, this is a dead under, and I'm going to lose my money.
- [110:46]
Bill Simmons
You and I have been following basketball a long time. A long time. Too long. We remember too many things. I don't know what to do with a lot of the information in my brain at this point. He's had so many injuries that we have just seen this before when we saw it with Blake Griffin a few years ago. It's like, you just start counting all the injuries, and it's like, oh, man, this isn't going to go great. There's been too many now, and I just wonder if he's at that point. And they wouldn't even tell us what the knee injury is now. We don't even know what it is. But he's had problems with both knees, and he's gigantic, right? And at some point, you pass the point of no return, which is why it's so nuts that, A, they gave him the extension, and B, it made a ton of sense why he would have wanted the extension, because maybe he Knew he wasn't 100%. It's like, fine, I'll take one more giant, you know, couple extra years.
- [111:40]
Joe House
Him wanting the extension makes perfect sense. I just don't understand enough about the dynamics for them to say one word about, like, what his health situation is or when he's.
- [111:51]
Bill Simmons
I told you, they were embarrassed. I really feel like they thought they could kind of slide around this and have nobody notice and be like, do. Do. Do rest management and have people go, oh, yeah, they're doing risk management. And people getting mad at that instead of getting mad at the fact that Embiid is fucking injured.
- [112:08]
Joe House
It's so stupid. It's so. I. I hold the brain trust for the Sixers. Perhaps in. In too high a regard. That's. That's. That's maybe the thing.
- [112:20]
Bill Simmons
Sacramento is down to 44 and a half. Actually, that might be where it was. I don't. I don't have an opinion on that. San Antonio, who we went under on, is the same at 35 and a half.
- [112:29]
Joe House
No, I don't.
- [112:30]
Bill Simmons
Utah, like the under, which I went under on. And you. What did you do?
- [112:38]
Joe House
I went under. I definitely went under on.
- [112:39]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, we all. I think we all made it. Gone under.
- [112:41]
Joe House
That poor kid Hendricks. What happened to his leg?
- [112:43]
Bill Simmons
No, you went over.
- [112:45]
Joe House
Oh, no. For Utah.
- [112:46]
Bill Simmons
27 and a half. It's now 24 and a half.
- [112:49]
Joe House
Shit. That poor kid, Hendricks. I hope he gets back. I hope that his leg.
- [112:53]
Bill Simmons
That was awful. I've never seen that injury before the way he did it.
- [112:58]
Joe House
Yeah, yeah. Cause it wasn't contact. He didn't come down on somebody's foot. That's what you expect to see at basketball.
- [113:04]
Bill Simmons
It was almost like when you're watching. Yeah. When you're watching Instagram reels and somebody's going to get their mail and it's icy out and their leg goes the wrong way. I've never seen just a basketball player. It was just so such a fluke.
- [113:15]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [113:16]
Bill Simmons
Felt bad for that dude.
- [113:17]
Joe House
I'm rooting for that.
- [113:18]
Bill Simmons
Last but not least, you're Washington Wizards over 20 and a half.
- [113:26]
Joe House
You know, I'm so pissed. Here's the thing. This is the team that I thought they might have last season. This is like some professionals mixed with kids. The professionals set sort of the expectation. They lead the kids into the possibility of just compete, just compete. And the number was low last season. They added in the form of Tunis. Yeah, Balanchunas. I'm telling you, he was on the floor coaching Bob Carrington and coaching Keonte George. And it was amazing to see he's pushing Sar where he needs to go now. Sar and Valentinus were on the floor very much at the same time. But you could see him. It was such a beautiful. See, I'm ready to look if you. When he put him next to the.
- [114:21]
Bill Simmons
Big E and Bobby Dandridge, he bought all in on.
- [114:24]
Joe House
They said, we're going to pay you. Come, come be this guy for this team. And he bought all in on it. And I just was. Now I'll tell you, it was very quiet in the stadium and I was sitting, you know, big thanks to our good friends at Fanduel for the seats that. Oh, close enough to hear some of the actual dialogue. But man, I was so impressed by that guy.
- [114:48]
Bill Simmons
So you're thinking I went under as a lock at 20 and a half. They could win 21 games.
- [114:54]
Joe House
They're still going to be one of the three worst teams with if they win 21 games.
- [115:00]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, but it's, it's irresponsible if they don't trade Valentine's before the trade deadline because that guy. Playoff teams actually need that dude. I could think of four teams right now that could use him.
- [115:10]
Joe House
You know who could use them? The Pelicans. Holy shit. What is going on in the game?
- [115:14]
Bill Simmons
They're probably not allowed to trade for him. You know, last thing, Celtics, Pacers last night, you know, the Celts say no poor Zingas, like you can get to the rim on them.
- [115:26]
Joe House
Right.
- [115:26]
Bill Simmons
So they started playing kata in the second half to try to change some of that. And the Pacers were playing great. Celtics couldn't hit a three. And it just seemed like one of those games. And Joe Maz, who I don't think I've done a harder 180 on out of any coach or manager I've ever had. Like, I fucking love Joe Maz. Did you see his thing about Katie Banks and Beck wrote about it today for the rigor that he thinks they should have basketball fighting.
- [115:48]
Joe House
Oh, yeah, I sure do.
- [115:49]
Bill Simmons
I mean Joe Maz is the best.
- [115:51]
Joe House
I agree with him.
- [115:52]
Bill Simmons
But Joe Maz was feeling out the game the same way I was watching it, where I was like, I know we're down 18, but I feel like we can come back. And just kind of stuck with this lineup, stuck with kdp. And the Celts came back and all of a sudden they had a little, you know, we're the fucking champs. Last three minutes, huge comeback. Tatum hit a big three, send it to ot. And then the Pacers just made a couple. I mean, it came down to like siakam at a 29 footer at the top of the key, which I will give him a hundred times out of 100. Sure, he made it. Sometimes you'll get a wide open shot from Jalen, who sucked the whole night and he missed it. But it was weirdly a great loss. It was like a let's defend our turf kind of loss. And the fact that they looked as good without Porzingis, I just, I like everything I'm seeing for. It's. It's really like this team is good. Really, really, really good as a defending champ.
- [116:46]
Joe House
The sub story that I like also though is, is the Pacers as a potential thorn in the side for Boston because that, that playoff series was closer than what history is going to show. They were competitive and their style of offense does give Boston. They're a rare team that can give Boston a little bit of trouble because of how Carlisle schemes up.
- [117:07]
Bill Simmons
Well, you know what's interesting about them, and it's been the whole year, like, they didn't have Matheran in the playoffs last year. Matheran. If you watch them knowing nothing. Like, if you woke up from a coma after five years and you just watched the Pacers game, you would think Matheran was like their alpha.
- [117:21]
Joe House
Sure.
- [117:22]
Bill Simmons
Sometimes he's like, clear out. I'm gonna fucking score here.
- [117:25]
Joe House
Right?
- [117:25]
Bill Simmons
The Pacers are good, man. They're good. I think you could make a case Orlando, Cleveland and the Pacers, you know, over Milwaukee and Philly. I think I would take all three of those as regular season teams. I don't think there's any question, but it was a really good game.
- [117:42]
Joe House
Yeah, they're all going to finish ahead of Philly.
- [117:44]
Bill Simmons
I'm super happy with the Celtics season. Then you watch okc. Same thing. Like, just. They have depth, they're athletic, they're fucking competitive as hell. Like, Chet just loves going against Wemby. That game was awesome.
- [117:56]
Joe House
It was awesome. I love, I love so far what we've seen out of Oklahoma City. In terms of a tiny click of maturity, I see a patience in them that I don't know that I saw last year.
- [118:08]
Bill Simmons
Jalen Williams is a little bit better.
- [118:09]
Joe House
He might be.
- [118:10]
Bill Simmons
And then Wiggins is a little bit better. And Wallace second year. And then Chet, you know, he made a little bit of a leap. Like not. Not quite the same leap that Paolo has been hinting at.
- [118:20]
Joe House
I saw some on the bench with Hartenstein talking to Chet. They clearly have a nice rapport. I wonder if those guys in their, you know, training camp before Hartenstein got hurt, like if there's like a mentor thing going on there. Because. Because Hardenstein, he's a big mother effer, a big physical guy. I wonder if he's imparting some stuff.
- [118:38]
Bill Simmons
To Chet that's going to be an absolute bitch of a team to play in the playoffs. I see nothing. We like them as the 1 seed division champ, best record. Like every battle I've seen, nothing that makes me think we were off on that. I also like when they do the post games and the whole team is in the post game interview.
- [118:56]
Joe House
It's great.
- [118:57]
Bill Simmons
It's a little 2001 Patsish. But yeah, from everything I've seen, the Celtics and the Thunder just seem like they're up here. It's a drop night tonight. It could be 5, 6, 7 other other teams and that's it.
- [119:11]
Joe House
Yep.
- [119:12]
Bill Simmons
All right, House, great to see you. Thanks for sticking around for the whole pod. Happy Halloween. Shout out to our guy, Michael Myers. Shout out to Kyle Creighton and Steve Ceruti for producing. Thanks to Danny Kelly for joining us as well. You can watch clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons podcast and we could see you on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. We could see House on Sunday on the ringer Sunday pregame show with Raheem and Sal and probably despondent jj.
- [119:41]
Joe House
No, JJ will bounce back. He knew. He knew what was coming.
- [119:44]
Bill Simmons
I think he knew when you just can't win the world Series, when your team screws up that many little things during the course of the series. That's it.
- [119:52]
Joe House
All right.
- [119:52]
Bill Simmons
Good to see you, house.
- [119:53]
Joe House
Good times. BS.
- [120:18]
Bill Simmons
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