Podcast Summary: The Binge Crimes: Hunting The Bogeyman
Episode 3: The Rollercoaster
Original Airdate: November 17, 2025
Host: Peter McDonnell (Sony Music Entertainment)

Overview

Episode 3, "The Rollercoaster," delves deeply into the evolving investigation of the NorCal Rapist—focusing on Nicole Earnest-Payte’s struggle for justice, the dogged efforts of multiple detectives, setbacks and breakthroughs in forensic technology, and the emotional highs and lows experienced by survivors and investigators alike. The episode traces the journey from Nicole’s assault and the initial skepticism about her claims to the ultimate linking of her case to a broader series of attacks, culminating in the emerging hope brought by forensic genealogy. It is a powerful study in perseverance, institutional inertia, the complexities of multi-jurisdictional crimes, and the relentless search for answers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nicole Earnest-Payte’s Confrontation with Law Enforcement ([02:13]–[02:52])

• Nicole returns to the Rohnert Park police station in 2006 after her status as the NorCal Rapist's first identified survivor is publicized.
• She directly criticizes the police for their initial inaction and disbelief:
  • Nicole (C): “Maybe if this department had investigated a little bit better, maybe the following nine women wouldn’t have been attacked. Maybe you should have believed me. Maybe you should have talked to Sonoma.” ([02:33])
• Emotional weight and survivor advocacy are highlighted, laying the groundwork for the episode’s theme of institutional accountability.

2. Detective Kay Lapelt’s Involvement & Early Missed Opportunities ([04:46]–[09:33])

• In 1997, Detective Kay Lapelt, on the brink of retirement, responds to a double assault in Davis, CA.
• Crime details: Rapist moves mattresses, binds victims, threatens exposure—exhibits MO consistent with prior unsolved cases.
• DNA mishandlings and departmental limitations slow case progress, but Kay persists:
  • Kay (E): “I had promised our two victims that I would work on this case and do everything I can to catch this guy.” ([07:44])
• Kay collaborates with cold case investigator Paul Holes; their cross-county partnership sets important precedents for investigative persistence.

3. The Power and Limits of DNA & Multijurisdictional Hurdles ([09:33]–[13:19])

• Holes and Kay, operating under varying degrees of institutional support, push for deeper DNA testing—sometimes against direct orders.
  • Paul Holes (G): “My bosses were starting to clamp down on me in terms of my cold case pursuits... But Paul didn’t listen.” ([10:19]–[10:35])
• Only through their collaboration is Nicole’s 1991 assault linked to the NorCal Rapist series:
  • Paul Holes (G): “I assign it to a DNA analyst, and she is able to generate DNA from the semen evidence in the case and link it to the NorCal Rapist series.” ([12:52])
  • Personal twist: the analyst becomes Paul’s wife ([13:12]).

4. Nicole’s Years in the Dark ([13:19]–[14:12])

• Nicole is left uninformed about developments in her case for years due to jurisdictional boundaries, despite the evidence linking her experience with others.
• Illustrates systemic communication failures affecting survivors.

5. Avis Beery and the Sacramento Breakthrough ([16:18]–[22:10])

• Detective Avis Beery becomes involved in 2006 when new evidence arises, including a vehicle of interest: a white Toyota 4Runner.
• Massive investigative operation, "Operation Forerunner," is launched. Investigators track down hundreds of 4Runner owners, acquiring DNA samples with no success:
  • Avis Beery (D): “We got over 100 DNA samples, and all of those were cleared...we knew that we were dealing with kind of a needle in a haystack.” ([19:43])
• Beery’s approach centers survivor support:
  • Avis Beery (D): “I absolutely believed her. And I felt terrible to my core that somebody would not believe her...you don’t lose anything by believing your victim from the get go.” ([20:43])

6. Media, Publicity, and the False Hopes of "America's Most Wanted" ([22:21]–[25:49])

• To broaden the manhunt, the case is featured on “America’s Most Wanted” in 2008. Nicole, her husband, and friends hope public attention will prompt a break.
  • Nicole (C): “Somebody’s going to recognize this guy. Someone’s going to recognize a pattern or have a gut feeling or spidey sense or something and call and it’s going to be the right person.” ([24:29])
• Although the show airs on Nicole’s birthday and they celebrate with a cake, no actionable leads result, leading to disappointment and emotional fatigue.

7. The Lingering Unknown and Psychological Toll ([26:14]–[28:07])

• Nicole describes her unease at seeing a stranger who could fit the rapist’s description; the case remains unsolved, dominating her thoughts and those of investigators.
  • Nicole (C): “How awful to be a sociopath. How awful would it be to be that angry?...But what I would always think about is what happened to you, what harm came to you? How did you get like this?” ([26:39])
• Detective Beery recounts her own obsession, always watching for the suspect’s vehicle, living with the ongoing uncertainty.

8. Breakthroughs in Forensic Genealogy ([28:21]–[36:01])

• Paul Holes, now a full-time cold case investigator, collaborates with Beery in searching for next-gen investigative methods.
• The episode explains “YSTR genealogy” as a way to potentially learn the suspect’s last name. Monica Tchaikowski, an investigative analyst, runs the YSTR profile—"Waller" emerges as one possibility ([31:32]), but it remains too common to narrow a lead.
• Shift to more advanced forensic genealogy, using lessons from solving the Golden State Killer (GSK) case with genetic database searches and genealogist Barbara Rae Venter.
• After the GSK arrest, DA Ann Marie Shubert demands the same strategy for the NorCal Rapist.
  • Ann Marie Shubert (C): “We found the needle in the haystack, and it was right here in Sacramento.” ([35:43])

9. Episode Cliffhanger & Tease ([36:01]–[36:28])

• The genealogical approach is slated to be applied to the NorCal Rapist case, with detectives expressing hope and anticipation:
  • Paul Holes (G): “Ann Marie is going I want this done on NorCal Rapist.” ([36:01])
• Preview of next episode: the suspect identification and arrest.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Nicole Earnest-Payte’s powerful rebuke:
  “Maybe if this department had investigated a little bit better, maybe the following nine women wouldn’t have been attacked. Maybe you should have believed me.” ([02:33], Nicole)

• Kay Lapelt’s steadfast commitment:
  “I had promised our two victims that I would work on this case and do everything I can to catch this guy.” ([07:44], Kay Lapelt)

• Paul Holes on institutional resistance:
  “My bosses were starting to clamp down on me...because I was just constantly putting requests in on these old, old cases.” ([10:19], Paul Holes)

• Avis Beery’s victim-first philosophy:
  “You don’t lose anything by believing your victim from the get go. If you run your investigation the way you’re supposed to, you’re going to figure out that this is BS or it’s not. It’s that simple.” ([20:43], Avis Beery)

• Nicole’s commentary on empathy and justice:
  “How awful to be a sociopath. How awful would it be to be that angry? ...But what I would always think about is what happened to you, what harm came to you? How did you get like this?” ([26:39], Nicole)

• Paul Holes on the excitement of forensic genealogy:
  “That’s where you get excited going, okay, I got the guy's last name.” ([30:46], Paul Holes)

• Ann Marie Shubert after the Golden State Killer arrest:
  “We found the needle in the haystack, and it was right here in Sacramento.” ([35:43], Ann Marie Shubert)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:13] Nicole Earnest-Payte confronts the police
• [04:46] Detective Kay Lapelt describes the Davis case
• [07:44] Kay’s vow to victims and persevering across retirement
• [10:19] Paul Holes describes institutional resistance
• [12:52] Key DNA link made in Nicole's case
• [13:19] Nicole left uninformed about case developments
• [16:18] Entry of Detective Avis Beery and Operation Forerunner
• [19:43] Avis on the needle-in-a-haystack challenge
• [20:43] Avis underscores the importance of believing victims
• [24:29] Nicole expresses hope after America’s Most Wanted
• [26:39] Nicole reflects on the psyche of the perpetrator
• [28:21] Paul Holes transitions to the DA’s office for full-time cold cases
• [31:32] Use of YSTR genealogy, "Waller" surname attempt
• [33:01] Solving the Golden State Killer via advanced genealogy
• [35:43] Ann Marie Shubert celebrates GSK arrest
• [36:01] Decision to apply forensic genealogy to the NorCal Rapist

Tone and Style

The episode maintains a tone that is investigative and empathetic, blending technical forensic detail with human stories of persistence, trauma, and hope. Speakers convey a mix of frustration, obsession, and cautious optimism, matched by a sense of hard-won camaraderie among survivors and tenacious investigators. The narrative is fast-paced, rich in specific case anecdotes and broader commentary on the evolution of criminal investigation.

For listeners or readers new to the series, "The Rollercoaster" is essential for understanding both the breakthroughs and setbacks in the hunt for the NorCal Rapist—an era-spanning chronicle marked by relentless victim advocacy, procedural innovation, and humanity on all sides of the criminal justice system.