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THE Bitcoin Podcast
$1M BITCOIN, NATION-STATE GAME THEORY & THE HYPERBITCOINIZATION STARTING GUN | Samson Mow (THE Bitcoin Podcast)
01:06:37
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- [00:00]
Samson Mow
The supply is dwindling. And I think that has to reconcile itself eventually. There are only 21 million coins. Several million are probably lost. Saylor has 500k. The ETFs have 1 point something million. And then Cynthia Lummis wants to buy a million. And if they launch the bit bonds, that's $200 billion of Bitcoin, which is 3 million some odd Bitcoin that they want to buy. That's really not sustainable. And even if you look at Saylor alone, he's taken off multiple times the amount of bitcoin that will be mined this year, just him alone, not counting everybody else. So bitcoin is really already deflationary if you look at it from that perspective. So it just doesn't compute. And I think when things like this don't compute, it means that there is going to be a very fast reconciliation at some point, which is the Omega Candle and a fast run to 1 million. The separation of money and state is not that you bankrupt the state. I think it's good to reduce the size of the government because everything's way out of whack right now and the government is far too powerful. Right. Everything can be weaponized against you as an individual. And I don't think people fully understand that. But separation of money and state is the separation of controlling money and dictating monetary policy from the state. And that is exactly what we're getting with Bitcoin, right? If they create the strategic bitcoin reserve and if they launch bitcoin bonds or bitbonds bonds, what they're calling them now, that is basically saying, you know, money is money and government is something separate. And it's as powerful and impactful as separation of church and state, I think.
- [01:42]
Walker
Greetings and salutations, my fellow plebs. My name is Walker and this is the Bitcoin podcast. Bitcoin continues to create new blocks every 10 minutes.
- [01:52]
Cynthia Lummis
Minutes.
- [01:53]
Walker
And the value of one bitcoin is still one bitcoin. If you are listening to this right now, remember you are still early. Find me on noster@primal.net Walker and this podcast@primal.net Titcoin on X, YouTube and Rumble. Just search Walker America and find this podcast on X and Instagram at Itcoin Podcast, head to the Show Notes for sponsor links. Head to substack.com walker America to get episodes emailed to you and head to bitcoin podcast.net for everything else. Without further ado, let's get into this bitcoin talk.
- [02:40]
Cynthia Lummis
Samson, welcome. Good to have you back. It's been a little over a year since you were on this show. You were a fairly early guest on it. So good to have you back.
- [02:49]
Samson Mow
Great to be back with the host with the buttery voice.
- [02:54]
Cynthia Lummis
I do what I can, but we got a chance to see each other in El Salvador recently. That was very nice to get out of the winter cold for me and I'm sure for many other folks coming from not so hospitable climates. But now you're busy right now, I would imagine with all of the news and everything busier than usual. Uh, we've got a lot to get into. But as a starting point, have you, in the conversations that you're having, the chatter that you get, the questions that you're getting from these different nations you're working with through Jan3, have. Did you feel a. An uptick around the executive order? Was there anything palpable there where the conversation started changing a little bit?
- [03:39]
Samson Mow
Maybe, maybe not. I kind of alluded to this in a. An article I wrote on X. It's actually my first article. But the. The mass market, the normies, they don't really understand what's happening. First of all, they're unaware, blissfully of the executive order and what that means. And secondary, they don't. They don't really understand the implications of what is to come from that executive order and this shift in sentiment in. In the US and in DC So I. I think what we're doing is really just telling other politicians and governments we engage with, that this has changed, actually, because they're not following the news as closely as you or I do. Right. Like, we know Saylor. In the preamble for the White House crypto summit, Saylor was saying, I'm glad I wore my orange tie. Right. That's the level of granularity that we're looking at here. So it's really. I don't think the implications are fully rolled out yet to the mass market. And like we talked about earlier in our preamble, that there's just so much bullish news that it just makes no sense right now. But it actually does make sense because the rest of the world is not really yet paying attention to what's happening.
- [05:00]
Cynthia Lummis
So. And I. Let's dig into that, because you're right, there is. I can't think of a time I have not been in Bitcoin as. As long as yourself or others. But, you know, no, gosh, I GUESS it's been five years now. It's been since 2020. It's feels like it flew by, but it also crawled by. Either way, I can't think of a time during the period that I've been watching the space where there has been such a just firestorm of what would otherwise be insanely bullish news, like things that you would imagine would move the market in a very positive way. And yet it's like, it's quiet. It's, you know, if we're measuring it in Fiat, it's, you know, sitting around 80 or something right now. You know, it's, it's dumped down, it's dipping, correcting, whatever you want to say. How do you think about that? How are you reconciling this? Is it what you said, is it an information asymmetry problem? Is it just like, are we just that early where people aren't paying attention?
- [05:57]
Samson Mow
It's a lot of things. And I like to say there's like a crosswalk test you can do. Next time you stopped at a red light, just look at who's crossing the street and just think, do they know? And the answer is probably they don't know. And you can also test it at the coffee shop. When you go get a coffee, just ask the barista, did you know about the SBR and the plans to buy bitcoin? The answer is probably no. Right? And then from there you can even ask more basic questions like, do you know there's only 21 million? And you know, there is a huge information gap here that we have that the rest of the market doesn't have. But in terms of the, the, the price behavior right now, I would say it's just a fear of uncertainty. It's not necessarily about bitcoin. We are correlated sometimes with the traditional markets and it can be frustrating, but we always break from it. You know, we correlate for a while and then we break. That's why we're at, you know, 80,000 today and not at whatever the S and P is at. Right. We do break, go up against all, against everything. But right now there's a lot of fear about tariffs. One, two, it's just what is going to happen next? Because the Trump administration, they're moving very quickly and they're just seemingly, you know, trying to fix things in a very rough manner. Right. And then there is three. The, the effort to lower interest rates on 10 year T bills. And that's gonna, that's really just trashing the stock market, right. To make people invest in bonds. So there's just so much at play in terms of the macroeconomic you know, securities landscape alone, that I think that's bringing us down with it. And you compound that by the fact that people don't fully understand that Bitcoin is the safe haven. And you can kind of see this, this price stagnation.
- [08:03]
Cynthia Lummis
It makes sense. On the point of kind of the potential purposeful tanking of the stock market, trying to, you know, basically create conditions that drive people towards bonds. Is that, do you think that's a very purposeful strategy? Are they realizing that basically something's got to give and so it's like, okay, have some short term pain in, in the stock market, throw out all these different announcements, try to, you know, push market sentiment down and then maybe blame that on the last administration because we're still obviously very early. And then once things start, you know, rocking and rolling again, interest rates start dropping, liquidity starts getting injected, then it's like, okay, now it's a party. Is that, is that kind of what you think is, is happening right now?
- [08:48]
Samson Mow
Well, that is what people are theorizing, right? And there are little hints of that from what the Trump admin is saying, but I don't really know if that is the game plan. It might be that we're ascribing strategy to where there is no strategy or where there's a rough strategy and we're ascribing 5D chess to it. But I don't think it helps in the end. Like it's, it's like inflating balloons, not like heavy duty industrial balloons, but like party balloons with helium. The ones that are like red and blue and yellow under the Titanic as it's sinking. I don't see anything fixing the state of the financial system right now just because there's been so much printing. Like you can lower the 10 year interest rate, but you know, to what end? Right? It's going to come back later. And you see this in the end too. There were a number of interventions last year and what did those interventions accomplish? Not that much. Right. It went down and then it went back up to 150 to the dollar. So I don't see it helping. Even the Department of Government Efficiency, I don't see that helping either. You're cost cutting, but the fact is you're, you're sitting on $36 trillion of debt. Letting it roll over at a lower interest rate doesn't really help much in the long run because you're missing something. And I think the only way out of it is to switch to Bitcoin, to rebase to bitcoin and phase out the old system as gradually as possible.
- [10:21]
Cynthia Lummis
What, what would that look like, rebasing to bitcoin? Are you suggesting an actual like. Like a full backing, so not just a strategic reserve, but actually, you know, tying it similar to how gold was pre1971?
- [10:35]
Samson Mow
Yeah. Basically rebasing is saying you can redeem $1 for one satoshi and that's it. I mean, you already can do that with gold. Right? Like, you just have to make that further jump forward that bitcoin is digital gold. And I can now peg the dollar to bitcoin too. Right. So I think that's ultimately where we're going. But to make it palatable, I believe there have to be shorter, smaller steps taken, like the executive order that says we're creating the reserve but in a budget neutral manner. Because right now everyone's freaking out about the economy and government spending. It's not very good if they say we're going to go and spend bitcoin and spend money and buy bitcoin and then you create the actual strategic reserve, which means you have to have congressional approval. And we're seeing that like Cynthia Lummis presented at the Bitcoin for America event. And you have bipartisan support. So we're seeing that it could come to pass. But it does need congressional approval, which is sort of a litmus test for broader public approval. So if that does happen, then the US Will start to buy in serious amounts. And I think once you have a serious amount of bitcoin, then you can. Well, not a bitcoiner, we would say, rebase right away. But as a politician that has to deal with normal people, you can say, okay, now we have a war chest of bitcoin and will allow you to redeem against it at a certain rate.
- [12:08]
Cynthia Lummis
Do you view this moment with the executive order at least? Yes. It's somewhat limited in its scope in terms of, as you correctly said, it has to be budget neutral, acquisition. But saying, look, we're not going to dispose of any of it. We're not going to sell any of it. The digital asset stockpile gets a different treatment. Nothing is added to it. They can dispose of it. But for the bitcoin one, I mean, does this mark sort of like a starting gun moment, an inflection point moment, where, I mean, this, this is the United States of America, like, it is one of, you know, the biggest superpower in the world. It's the biggest kid at the playground. Is this what kind of tips off everyone else that we really need to stop ignoring this. Like maybe we're not fully, you know, going down that path yet, but we need to pay attention because something's clearly going on here. Like what's Trump doing? Is this, is this that moment?
- [13:02]
Samson Mow
I think for some yes and for some no. So it's a mixed bag again. Like a lot of people, a lot of politicians and presidents, they don't really know yet. And again, what they don't know is compounded by the fact that they don't know what the implications are. And then you have some that probably clue in and, and say, okay, this is a big change. But if you're measuring general sentiment on X, I think it's also divided too. Like there are people outspoken that say it's a nothing burger, it doesn't change anything. And then you have people in my camp or in your camp maybe that say, yeah, it changes everything because it really is that starting gun. It's not like we're going to buy a million bitcoin tomorrow, but this opens the door to that. And I think a lot of people kind of expect it's going to happen at the snap of your finger, that it all happens at once, but that's really not the case. You have to have a progress of steps that you go that lead people down that path. And this is that starting gun that begins that whole process from just.
- [14:14]
Cynthia Lummis
In your opinion, you've obviously thought about nation state adoption a lot. This is what January is doing, is trying to accelerate hyper bitcoinization through nation state adoption and also through bottom up approaches like aqua your wallet, which I'd love to get into a bit later. But from your perspective, was this executive order like, were you happy with the way it was structured? Did you look at this and say, hm, like pleasantly surprised, disappointed? What was your kind of just gut reaction to it when it came out?
- [14:42]
Samson Mow
I was very happy. My take is that we got exactly what we wanted and also what was promised. Right. So we have two buckets, we have the strategic bitcoin reserve and then the crypto stockpile. And as you said, it's not to be added to, but to be sold off potentially. So there's not much more we can ask for. Right? There is a clear separation between bitcoin and everything else. And also there's now the genius act, the stablecoin regulations are coming that will further structure how the market views these different buckets and deals with them. But you know, we were at the point where we thought we were going to get a crypto reserve and I Actually spent some time thinking about, you know, if Trump wanted a crypto reserve, how could we structure the rules in a way that we don't get a bucket of garbage? And what it came down to was it has to be proof of work and with additional requirements like, you know, dominance and hashing function time existing and a number of other factors, but that was the best I could do to create some structure whereby you wouldn't have Ripple and a million meme coins in a crypto reserve. But you know, that's it's better that we just said it's bitcoin and then everything else, because that is the holy grail of nation state adoption, that it's bitcoin only.
- [16:06]
Walker
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- [17:36]
Cynthia Lummis
I mean, I was, I was very pleasantly surprised to see that just after Trump's initial posts on Truth Social, saying, you know, Ada sold xrp and then later he followed up with and Bitcoin and Ethereum. I love those two. I was just thinking, oh boy, you know, this like, come on, here we go. But this was a clear demarcation. I think that that was key. I know a lot of people have the thought that, well, even bitcoiners, I mean, within Our own microcosm. The government shouldn't be involved in bitcoin at all. We shouldn't be cheering this on. I'd love to get your thoughts on that. Is this something that. Is that even the right question of should or should not the government? Or is this just a matter of inevitability? How do you process this? How do you speak to those bitcoiners who are saying, you know, this isn't what I signed up for when I got into bitcoin?
- [18:26]
Samson Mow
Bitcoin adoption is a matter of inevitability. And if bitcoin became valuable, you can kind of expect that everyone will want it, right? It's not like bitcoin's going to become a multi trillion dollar asset and just, you know, Walker, you and I transact it, you know, to pay for cheeseburgers. The governments are going to want it. Everyone's going to want it. And you have to be okay with the fact that whatever is money is going to be wanted by the government. That's like a tale as old as time, right? Like, if not bitcoin, it would have been something else. But if it became valuable, the government will want it because that's what they, they do. They take money from you and they, you know, redistribute it to various things. So I think you just have to be okay and understand that the separation of money and state is not that you bankrupt the state. I think it's good to reduce the size of the government because everything's way out of whack right now and the government is far too powerful, right? Like everything can be weaponized against you as an individual. And I don't think people fully understand that. But separation of money and state is the separation of controlling money and dictating monetary policy from the state. And that is exactly what we're getting with bitcoin, right? If they create the strategic bitcoin reserve and if they launch bitcoin bonds or bitbonds, what they're calling them now, that is basically saying money is money and government is something separate and it's as powerful and impactful as separation of church and state, I think. So what we're doing, I think, is the right move. We're engaging with the government to help them formulate better bitcoin strategies, better bitcoin policies to understand bitcoin more fully so that they can become more like us. They can become more cypherpunk and more interested in monetary history and personal freedom and sovereignty and all those good things. So I think you have to be okay with it. And it's sort of a pipe dream to think we'll have bitcoin become a major asset in the world and very valuable multi trillion dollar asset class and the governments are never going to touch it.
- [20:47]
Cynthia Lummis
I mean it's, it's literally like the, you know, first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win type situation like this. To me, this is what bitcoin winning looks looks like. It's what bitcoin's success looks like. If it was a failure, the government wouldn't care about it, but it's not a failure. So they do care about it. Like to me it's just, it's exactly. You said this is the natural progression of where it was going to go.
- [21:11]
Walker
Right.
- [21:12]
Cynthia Lummis
We can not like it, but we kind of need to accept that this was going to happen if bitcoin was winning.
- [21:20]
Samson Mow
Yeah. So I think the areas that people should focus on are on education because if you look at the blackrock prospectus, it's actually very flawed in how they determine the validity of a bitcoin fork and all of this stuff that is going to come out through legislation from the government to allow them to handle bitcoin or how they process bitcoin and deal with things like forks. That is where we should be fighting on to make sure they fully understand that it's not the longest chain, it's the heaviest chain. And all of this little nuance that is very important so that we can prevent another block size war that is the big value add. And if you want to go even a step further, it's educating them on what exactly it means to live in a hyper bitcoinized world. You need stronger protections for property rights, you need stronger protections for the individual. Because if everyone is using bitcoin as money and everyone's using an Aqua wallet or a self custodial wallet where they have their own keys, there is a big danger in a lot of situations that someone can steal your money because they looked at your phone. Like a police officer can scroll through your phone and ask. And there are very few protections in place I think to prevent this type of abuse. Especially at the border, crossing a border, having your devices seized, there's an ocean of opportunity for theft. And especially when money is information like bitcoin.
- [22:55]
Cynthia Lummis
Yeah. Borders are particularly scary one because you kind of have your rights essentially suspended, crossing in between and some places much more than others. But even a place like the U.S. you a lot of your rights just kind of don't exist there at the border, apparently, which is something bitcoiners should definitely be aware of and be cautious about. I'm. I'm curious, too. So, I mean, okay, we've got this executive order. We've got the Lummis reintroducing the Bitcoin Act. You've got the other. The. The genius act, Right. That you mentioned as well. There's a lot of momentum right now. Do you think that these things end up having a. A better shot making it through the legislative process now, now that there is the executive order in place, or are we still going to see. I mean, these are. These are bipartisan. They have some bipartisan support. You would think both sides of the aisle could put aside, or one side could put aside their dislike of the president and be able to see that this is something that benefits their constituents, it benefits the citizens, it benefits Americans, like it would in any country. This is introduced. Do you think these things have a better shot of actually making it through now? Is the momentum here, or are they still going to be kind of running up against a bit of a brick wall?
- [24:12]
Samson Mow
It's hard to say, but definitely, I would say the executive order does make it easier because there is a clear mandate from President Trump that this needs to get done. Now, it comes down to the execution and, you know, people lobbying their Congress people to. To educate them about bitcoin. But what it comes down to is its necessity. The US has to adopt bitcoin in some way. I think the writing is on the wall that the debt levels, the spending is all unsustainable and the monetary system is in danger. And this is why they're looking to stablecoins to protect dollar hegemony and to maintain dominance at the time when many other countries are de dollarizing. So I think it's not really about bitcoin at this point. It's about the future of the US and if they understand bitcoin's role in saving the country and saving the economic system. So it is definitely a bipartisan issue. But the positive is we're seeing bipartisan support already out the door. So I'm hopeful that it does all work out.
- [25:22]
Cynthia Lummis
And then I'm curious, you know, in these, as we go into this, what will be a very interesting period. I mean, we are. What an exciting time we live at right now. There's a. There's a lot going on, particularly as a bitcoiner. There's a lot going on. Now, what does this start to look like as far as larger adoption? Because, you know, I think people have been a little bit surprised maybe by the way that the market has been reacting to this. As we discussed earlier, there is a huge informational asymmetry where, where are you at right now with like the Omega thesis? Where are you at? Where do you, you know, are we about to hit a. It feels like we're getting close to a very, very suddenly part. There's so many things building up, price is chopping along. It just seems like things are ripe for, I don't know, face melting. Hopefully not down to 58k. I view that as a fairly tail risk at this point. Sorry to the 58k gang, but never say never without holding you to any timelines or things like that. Has your fundamental thesis changed at all? I guess would be the question.
- [26:30]
Samson Mow
No, I'm still expecting Omega very soon. And there are direct parallels to the Weimar mark when it was dying that you started seeing very wild swings. It would go from single digit percentages to double, then triple and then negative when there is government interventions and then up 100% and then back down to single digits and thousands. So we're already seeing God candles very regularly and I see people critiquing and saying well, where's your God candle? But there have been eight or nine of them so far. We're seeing more volatility because bitcoin is more valuable. So the swings are bigger now. It's just like when, when bitcoin was at a thousand, right? When you had a hundred dollar swing it's like well that's crazy. And now it's normal. It's like you don't even notice it. But we're seeing $10,000 swings and then eventually it goes to 100,000, 000 swings. So Omega, the Omega thesis is still very valid and I think it is still coming. And what worries me, or I don't know if worries right word, but what concerns me is we're not getting that slow and steady rise, which means the rise is going to be far more violent simply because we're not going up gradually. Right. And if it's not gradually then it's sudden. And I don't think it we're going to go to 58k. But as you said, anything can happen in bitcoin but it's not that likely. And the reason is the composition of the Hodler has changed, the structural composition has changed. It's not just like you and me and you know, Adam back now it is institutions holding microstrategy like pension funds, pension funds holding ETFs investors in ETFs that have it in their Roth IRA or other investment vehicles that they're probably not going to touch. So it's a very different beast now than it was a few years back, right? You have people that bought Ibit, I don't know, let's say 50 some odd dollars or, or they bought IBIT when it launched at 20 some odd dollars, right? Like are they going to sell IBIT when it goes to 12 if there was a big drawdown, probably not right for them. It's a different sort of unit bias. It's like 50 to 20, not from 50 to whatever, right? So they're unless likely to sell first of all. And then they're less likely to sell when it drops because it's a. It's less scary for them because it's a different numbering system, so to speak.
- [29:15]
Walker
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- [30:16]
Cynthia Lummis
That's okay.
- [30:17]
Walker
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- [30:32]
Cynthia Lummis
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- [30:33]
Walker
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- [30:43]
Cynthia Lummis
I think that's a really interesting point, just about the composition of people that are holding Bitcoin right now. Because you're right. It's like it has fundamentally changed like the ETFs and MicroStrategy, and I mean, even these, these now numerous other companies that are, you know, raising money to hold Bitcoin or buying bitcoin with free cash flow, whatever it may be. It seems to have been. There's a different switch that's been flipped and it just seems like, I don't know. Of course, everybody likes seeing number go up, right? Especially if you're holding bitcoin. You like seeing that. That being said, I know you and I both want as many people as possible to get onboarded to bitcoin, to adopt Bitcoin at as low of a price as possible. Because we kind of see the writing on the wall for what's coming. Is that where you're coming from there, where it's like people's, you know, we're still very early, but time to be very early is running out and soon you'll just be regular early. Is that kind of what it comes down to?
- [31:47]
Samson Mow
I think so. I mean, the masses will be interested in bitcoin when it's at 200, 300, 500K. And that's very normal, right? If you look at how ordinary people think, it's just like I see someone panicking and then I panic. There's very little foresight and planning ahead and doing research because everyone's busy with bread and circuses, right? And that's just how human civilization has evolved. And I think we're still in that very small minority, which we did the research and we went down the rabbit hole and were listening to the bitcoin podcast with Walker and everything like that. And yeah, you're very early if you're listening to this. And people seem to think they're not early because bitcoin is at 80k or it went up to 108. But I still think we're very early because go back to that test again, go to your coffee shop and ask them how much they know. The other thing I think is a very big component of it is people think that there's. There's more supply than there is because, you know, we always say that there's only 21 million. The supply on the exchanges is going down. But then the counterpoint I see shot back is, well, then why is the price dropping? Right? But this has nothing to do with the, the supply. It's just people have to sell sometimes for various reasons. They could be liquidated, they could be deleveraging, they could be, you know, doing any number of things, or they're just panicking. Plainly but the supply is dwindling and I think that has to reconcile itself eventually. There are only 21 million coins. Several million are probably lost. Sailor has 500k, the ETFs have 1 point something million and then Cynthia Lummis wants to buy a million. And if they launch the bit bonds, the, the ones designed by, sorry, I forgot the name, but the One for issuing $2 trillion of debt with 10% allocated to Bitcoin, that's $200 billion of Bitcoin, which is somewhat some 3 million, some odd Bitcoin that they want to buy, that's really not sustainable. And even if you look at Saylor alone, he's taken off multiple times the amount of bitcoin that will be mined this year. Just him alone, not counting everybody else. So bitcoin is really already deflationary if you look at it from that perspective. So it just doesn't compute. And I think when things like this don't compute, it means that there's going to be a very fast reconciliation at some point, which is the Omega candle and a fast run to 1 million.
- [34:34]
Cynthia Lummis
It does feel like the suddenly is going to really happen suddenly. Can you talk a little bit about those bit bonds? And just like for the layman out there, what does that mean? What does that look like? What's the significance of that?
- [34:48]
Samson Mow
Right, so the proposal was for the US government to issue debt that is backed by Bitcoin, 10% allocated to Bitcoin and you get paid 1% interest and there is a boost in the coupon payment up to four and a half percent, I believe. And that's capped off with the bitcoin gains. Yeah. And it's just a way to secure US debt with bitcoin, similar to the bitcoin bonds that I designed for El Salvador. But I think it's a very different beast. If the US is issuing bitcoin backed debt compared to a developing country, it actually may preclude the ability for any developing nation to issue a bitcoin bond at this point. Because US debt is the safest debt. Right. It's from the money printer itself. It's not a derivative. And you know, it's very hard to default on that debt. So it's like in terms of bitcoin bonds that's like AAA rated. Right. Then everything else is downstream of that. But I think it's a, it's a valid strategy and it's probably the, the, the most reasonable thing the US could do at this point. Maybe I would increase it from 10 to 20%, but we'll see what happens. I think this is further out there. The, the bitcoin bill will likely pass first, creating the reserve, and then this will probably come later. But everything seems to happen faster these days, so who knows?
- [36:22]
Cynthia Lummis
You are right about that. The fact, I mean, honestly, the fact that this executive order came out, we're just in March right now, the fact that this happened, what, less than two months into the administration, I think is pretty remarkable. It's impressive, honestly, because there's obviously, this isn't the only thing on the President's plate. He's the President of the United States. He's got a lot of demands on his time. Do you think, do you think that Trump understands kind of the high level game theory around this, like, around the first mover advantage? You know, he may not understand all the nuances of bitcoin, but do you think he gets that game theory, like, or, or is it just. He's got people in his ear, they're telling him, this is what we need to do. You made this promise, okay, I'll sign it, I'll do it. How deep do you think that knowledge goes?
- [37:13]
Samson Mow
Well, I would give him some credit that he understands the game theory of it. As for bitcoin and the implications of everything he's done, I don't think he fully understands it. If you look at the signing of the eo, it's David Sacks, like answering his questions and he's like, you know, did I promise this? You believe in it, you think it's good, I'll sign it. Right. That doesn't sound like a Michael Saylor level of conviction and understanding to me, but I could be wrong. But yeah, I think he definitely does understand there is a first mover advantage. And I definitely think he knows that the goal is to become a bitcoin superpower because you want as much of the valuable thing that everyone else wants soon. So that's definitely a given. So that's, I guess that's the answer.
- [38:04]
Cynthia Lummis
Do you foresee any, let's say, geopolitical games being played between gold and Bitcoin as it relates to neutral reserve asset status? That is, is there any bait and switch that happens where, okay, a lot of foreign central banks have been accumulating gold for some time. They haven't been accumulating bitcoin. You know, who knows how much gold's in Fort Knox? Hopefully most of it we'll see. But, but how do you see that interplay playing out? Because basically there's two candidates for neutral reserve asset Right. It's bitcoin. It's, you know, digital gold or it's analog gold. How do you see that shaking out?
- [38:45]
Samson Mow
I think it has a lot to do with how the audits of Fort Knox goes or if there is an audit, if the audit comes back that there is not enough gold, the gold's not all there. I believe we'll see this sort of game play out where gold is demonetized in favor of bitcoin simply for that reason that you outlined. I think Saylor said the same thing, that you can kind of like take out your enemies that have been buying gold by dumping gold and buying bitcoin, especially if you have more bitcoin. Right. So it's just a balance, like does the US have more bitcoin or more gold? And do they see the bitcoin is more valuable or the gold is more valuable? And I think another thing that we forgot to talk about the EO was this will now allow us to actually figure out exactly how much bitcoin the US has because there's a number that's often thrown out there of 200 to 220,000 bitcoin. 95,000 is going back to Bitfinex. And the rest we don't know. The U.S. marshals has, have kind of said we don't know. So the biggest thing I think for the EO is really that we're going to find out exactly how much they have and that might lead to us finding out how much everyone else has. Because every number out there is largely an estimate or approximation. Because China too, like right now, in, in if you're going by general public disclosures, the US has less than China. China has 194, 000. But there are also theories that China sold it because there are some announcements in Chinese news that they disposed of some crypto assets. They didn't say bitcoin, but they said we'll dispose so so much billion dollars of yen urine and this much billions of yuan and this much, this department will dispose this much. But we don't know. But if the US comes out and says, here's our attestation, you know, here's a signed message from the key that controls this, then I think other countries will start to need to verify how much they have. Otherwise, you know, you don't really believe that at this point trust in government is at an all time low globally. So I think there'll be a race for more transparency which is good for everybody.
- [40:56]
Cynthia Lummis
That's a really interesting thing to think about because it's also, you can't really do that with gold, but with bitcoin it's like, oh, no, it's very easy. We'll verify it here for you in five minutes, like you said. Here's the signed message. This is the address. Go on, have a look. Check on your own note if you would like. Nothing's stopping you. That's a really radical shift though. I mean, is that one of those things where you think this is one of the ways that, let's say the, the ethos of bitcoin, if I can say that, starts bleeding into governments? Like really? I mean, that's radical transparency. Right. We're not used to that from governments, you know, certainly not from any governments recently.
- [41:38]
Samson Mow
Yeah, I, I think so. Because the whole point of this stuff is soft power projection. Right. And projection of economic power. You kind of want people to know how much gold you have. Right. Generally. And like you said, you can't really prove how much gold you have. And we actually don't know. So this is a very simple, low cost, highly effective way to prove how much bitcoin you have. And it's going to be the norm, I think, that every country is going to say, here's our holdings, you know, look at how powerful we are.
- [42:11]
Cynthia Lummis
Do you think from another side of this, one of the tropes that folks like Elizabeth Warren threw out there was, oh, well, this is going to be used for sanctions evasion. And so the effectiveness of US Sanctions on countries that get on our bad side is going to be lessened by bitcoin. And she's been saying this for years. Is that something that you think is a legitimate concern for policymakers in Washington? Is that something that they're considering? Or is that just kind of secondary to the fact that this is a, as you said, about, you know, soft power projection and holding, the only truly finite and verifiable asset on the planet.
- [42:49]
Samson Mow
Yeah. I mean, with money being information now because of bitcoin, it's, it's really hard to enforce. Like capital controls are also gone, right? They've been gone for, you know, 16 years now with, with the dawn of bitcoin, but that's not really talked about. You still pretend that capital controls exist, but are capital controls effective? That's a question you have to ask yourself because there's a lot of Chinese owned real estate in the U.S. like, how'd that money get there with the, you can only send $50,000 out per year. Right. Under the current capital control scheme. So are they that effective? Are sanctions that effective? How, how hurt is Russia from being sanctioned to hell? I, I don't know. I don't think they're that effective. So it's a tool, I, I believe that politicians like to wave around, say, yeah, we'll sanction you, but does it really work? I don't think so. So does it really matter at this point? If you have permissionless money and that reduces the threat of a sanction, that doesn't work. You have to draw your own conclusion from that.
- [43:59]
Cynthia Lummis
I'm curious too. Okay, let's say governments start to get behind this. The US Already is, obviously, to a certain extent with this EO and these other draft bits of legislation that have been submitted. Again, do you think we see central bank pushback? Do you think we see folks, not just the United States Federal Reserve, but other kind of US controlled institutions like the imf, like the World bank bank, you know, I mean, even the BIS for, you know, the bank of banks. Do you think these, they have not been big friends to bitcoin in the past? Are they going to view this as kind of an acceleration of the threat? How do you think, like, how do you think that plays out?
- [44:43]
Samson Mow
All of those institutions are definitely going to fight back because you're cutting off their livelihood, right? Like, they are sort of like central banks, they can print their own money. The IMF with the special drawing rights, right, that's basically printed money. So, like, when we talk about money printing, it's not just like physical printing of bills. Like all of this is printing of money, right? It's increasing the money supply everywhere. And yeah, it's, it's, they're, you're cutting off their job, so they're going to hate it really. So I don't really see any way around that. You know, you have these institutions that are very entrenched, very influential and powerful, and you're kind of chopping off their ability to do what they do. So they're going to fight it until the end. But you know, if it's, if you're talking about just central banks, I think there really has to be a moment of reckoning where you, you ask the people there, like, are you thinking about this for your own benefit or for, for the benefit of the country? And if it is for the benefit of the country, they have to acknowledge that they need Bitcoin and they should just hold bitcoin. They can still exist and just, you know, do whatever they want to do, but, you know, they should hold bitcoin, right, and pretend to manage Monetary policy and inflation. But for the other ones, like the IMF and World Bank, I think it's a much more difficult battle because they're not really accountable to anybody. Right. It's like a collective group that funds them, and they have no accountability whatsoever.
- [46:18]
Cynthia Lummis
I want to dig into the IMF a little bit, but just on the point of central banks, was it the Czech central bank governor who was recently. This was just like a few weeks ago, I think. Right. Who was very, very seemingly pro Bitcoin, actually, which is kind of, again, coming from a central banker, you don't expect that. What was your read on that? Was there any update on that either? Is that moving forward?
- [46:44]
Samson Mow
Last I heard that they passed the resolution that would allow them to buy Bitcoin and keep it on their balance sheet. So I don't know if they did it yet, but I think it's really a test. Technically, the central bank. Well, in the case that the Federal Reserve is not federal, but generally, central banks are part of the government. They're an extension of the government, and they. They control monetary policy. But it's really a question of are they treasonous or not. Maybe we should meme this into existence. But if they're denying Bitcoin, it's kind of, you know, attacking the country and betraying the country because it's not in the best interest for them of the country, for them to block Bitcoin adoption. Right. They should simply look for valuable assets to stabilize the economy and, you know, maintain purchasing power and all their normal charter goals. So I think the check bank passes the test. They're actually looking at it objectively and with logic rather than behaving emotionally and lashing out against Bitcoin, which happens very often. But if you want to find betrayal, there's betrayal everywhere. Even the bank of Canada sold off all Canada's gold. And you have to ask yourself, why would you do that? In what world or universe where you're acting in a responsible manner for effectively the finances of the country do you do something like that?
- [48:11]
Cynthia Lummis
It is a very good question, and I like the idea of memeing this into existence. If you're anti Bitcoin, you're basically committing treason at this point against the. You heard it here first from Samson. I like that approach, you know, because it is a very. Yes, that's, you know, perhaps slightly hyperbolic, but not really like, when you think.
- [48:35]
Walker
About it, if your job is to.
- [48:36]
Cynthia Lummis
Do what is best for your citizens, to try and, you know, create stable conditions in an economy, not holding, not Accumulating Bitcoin seems like a dereliction of duty, right? This seems like you are, like you are actively trying to sabotage or, you know, Canada selling off the gold. Like, why on earth would you do that unless you were trying to create an adverse reaction? I can't think of another reasonable explanation.
- [49:00]
Samson Mow
Can you also CBDCs, if you're pushing for that, it's treason. Like all of this stuff is treason and we should bring back hanging. That's the only way to fix it.
- [49:11]
Cynthia Lummis
Yeah, I saw Christine Lagarde seems very determined to roll out a digital euro. She just put out another little, you know, awkward video today. Not quite as awkward as some of the last ones she's had, but they are really pushing hard for that. And I think there's also, from what I've seen, at least in the online community, there's quite a lot of people in Europe who are pushing against that, that realize as much as. Because Europe seems to really be trying to accelerate, or I should say the ECB and the European Union, not individual Europeans residing in their nations with their own, you know, national identities. It's like the people are against something, but the, you know, the supranational organization wants it. Like, well, what are you doing then? Who are you actually representing if not the people? That's ultimately the question.
- [50:00]
Samson Mow
Yeah, well, my theory is that they have their bubble, just like we have our bubble, right? And their bubble is all the other central banks and they all get together and maybe they have like a central bank social network and they're all saying, hey, like they're following all the CBDC news and they're hyping it up amongst each other and like liking each other's posts and they think it's a great idea. I don't know, but it's an interesting phenomenon that, you know, there's such a disconnect between what your fiduciary duty is and what you're actually doing. And you know, when we talk to some of the governments, like not, not now, like now I would talk about SBR, but before we talked a lot about the ETFs and that the signal from BlackRock, the largest asset manager on the planet, launching an ETF is something they need to really reconsider. Like, you can think bitcoin is, you know, for criminals and for whatever, for bad people, but you have to reconcile that with the fact that the largest asset manager on the planet launched the etf and it is their most successful ETF to date. So think about it. But you know, the Central banks have to think about that too. Right. It's like it just doesn't add up that they're not factoring this in. And they treat Bitcoin under their own guidance as if it was like disconnected from reality.
- [51:24]
Cynthia Lummis
Does, does that pitch that you just gave about, you know, okay, Blackrock, the largest asset manager, they're doing this. You should probably, you know, pay attention a little bit. Does that pitch now become the United States of America? You know, the most powerful nation on earth is doing this. You like? Is that how the conversation starts to shift? Or is it just one more kind of arrow in your quiver that you say, here's BlackRock, here's the U.S. like, how can you be ignoring this?
- [51:49]
Samson Mow
It's one more arrow. But what we found is that most governments, most politicians, they are very conservative. And there's this concept of career risk that's talked about a lot, at least in corporate adoption. I think sailors mentioned it too. But it's. It applies to politicians as well. Right. Nobody wants to take career risk, and they don't yet understand that not adopting Bitcoin is the career risk now. And that's what we're trying to educate them on. But by and large, they all are waiting for. When it's from their perspective, it's zero career risk. And by definition, that means the US has not just done the executive order, but passed the Bitcoin act and is actively accumulating. And Bitcoin is now at 500,000 or 0.5m. That's when they think it's zero career risk. So it could be that we have to wait for that to happen before everyone piles on. And I think when that happens and everyone piles on is that's when you shoot up to a million or 10 a coin. Because nobody wants Bitcoin when it's at 80, maybe not even at 108, maybe not even at 200. They want it at 0.5m.
- [53:02]
Cynthia Lummis
Humans are funny.
- [53:03]
Samson Mow
They are. There's so much psychology at play here. Like, you can't. Like we go down the monetary rabbit hole. But if you do that, then the next one is psychology. And it's just amazing what. How the human mind works.
- [53:18]
Cynthia Lummis
Yeah.
- [53:18]
Walker
Or.
- [53:19]
Cynthia Lummis
Or sometimes doesn't, it seems. But. Well, yeah, it's. It's going to be interesting now. Okay. One thing I did want to get into with you, circling back to the IMF a little bit there. The IMF is not the nicest organization to play ball with. Clearly they have done quite a lot of untoward things around the World keeping countries on the hook with basically insupportable debt. To quote Bruce Cockburn song which is call it democracy. For anyone that hasn't heard it, it's a great song. Bruce Cockburn CANADIAN ARTIST but with the recent El Salvador news, so can you unpack that a little bit? Because look, El Salvador is still buying bitcoin, right? They've been very publicly posting their buys. Some days, one maybe they miss a couple, they make it up and then some they're adding to that stack that they've started accumulating since kind of adopting a bitcoin standard. Now the legal tender laws have been pulled back. Apparently the IMF is as part of their new conditions of this new loan will not allow them or says they can't acquire more bitcoin. Is that something where, I mean, the IMF is very controlled by the US By US Interests, right? Like, I mean, like, primarily. Is that something where maybe there comes a point where somebody like Trump or something says you need to take those terms out of your, you know, out of your loan like this, you know, we support bitcoin in this country. We won't have our, you know, international loan sharks, you know, doing this kind of thing. Or how are you looking at this? How are you seeing it play out? Do you think this is just like a temporary hiccup or is this, are they just trying to set an example?
- [55:09]
Samson Mow
Well, I mean, the IMF's motivation is to keep lending, right? And I don't really see the Trump admin being able to intervene specifically on the behalf of El Salvador and say, you know, they just like yank that out. I could be wrong, but I think Trump would rather keep a bargaining chip for something else in the future. That's just my take on his business style, so to speak. But yeah, the, there's a lot going on in terms of bitcoin adoption right now in El Salvador and there's a lot of confusion as to what exactly is happening. And I think the, there is a lack of communication and that leads to a lot of speculation from bitcoiners because we love to not trust and verify. So, you know, people are asking what, how can you reconcile the, the agreement with the IMF and that continued stacking or adding or buying of bitcoin that they're publishing. And you know, we don't have a clear answer, but President Bukele has said it doesn't stop it referring to the buying indirectly. But I don't know, I, I can't figure it out myself because I read through the agreement. And it is very ironclad about what can or cannot be done. And there are only a few loopholes that are available. One is that it's a. It's a transfer, an internal transfer from a non public wallet. I think that's Joe Nakamoto's thesis. And then second is that it's a donation. Third is that they. They are not past the deadline yet. Like there is. There are multiple deadlines in the agreement and they can still buy. And it's not yet at the deadline, but the president said it doesn't stop ever. So that kind of precludes that one. Another one is that the. The reserve is private funds, not public. But then that doesn't really make sense either because they've said it's a public reserve. So. Yeah, I. I really don't know the answer at this point and I think a lot of people are just wondering too. But there definitely is a conflict there. And it's almost made worse because the IMF released a statement saying that El Salvador is compliant with the agreement. Right. So I think the answer is nobody knows right now. And you just have to kind of trust that, you know, like they can keep going.
- [57:36]
Cynthia Lummis
But Samson, I want to verify so badly. That's fair. I mean, I hope that we get some more communication out of there. It was nice to be back in El Salvador and see the. I hadn't been back since 2022 and it was amazing to see the progress that's been made in that country. It's really inspiring, honestly.
- [57:56]
Samson Mow
Yeah. No one is saying that it's not a massive transformation. I think it's just bitcoiners asking questions and.
- [58:06]
Cynthia Lummis
Yeah, yeah, it's fair questions, you know.
- [58:09]
Samson Mow
Yeah, I would think so. Yeah.
- [58:11]
Cynthia Lummis
Well, I want to be conscious of your time, Samson, because I know you do have a cutoff and we have not had a chance to talk about Aqua yet. So this is another part. It's a wallet that, by the way, for anyone that has not tried Aqua yet, I would highly recommend you do. It is a great wallet. I've started being kind of like my go to. And it. It's an excellent piece of the puzzle for any bitcoiner. But this is something that you guys have developed out of Jan3. So can you talk a little bit about. About Aqua, about what's kind of next for you guys too, and how you see this fitting into the larger adoption strategy that Aqua, or, excuse me, that Gen 3 is putting out there into the world?
- [58:48]
Samson Mow
Yeah. So Gen 3, it. It focuses a lot on the Top level adoption, working with governments, regulators, even central banks. We have calls with central, central banks and that's really just trying to get countries to implement a bitcoin strategy at the national level. But at the grassroots level we want to support real adoption by real people in all the countries too. So that is where Aqua comes in. It's a non custodial wallet that's based on liquid and it supports lightning transfers through the liquid balance of Bitcoin. You have so sorry. So it actually, it makes it much easier to do lightning transactions because there's no channel management. It's self custodial so no one can freeze you or shut down your account. And it actually works really well because most lightning wallets need something else. Otherwise if it, even if it is self custodial you have to go back to the main chain to settle. And that is difficult when fees are high. So liquid sort of acts as a medium layer there, like a layer 2 or layer 1.5 or something where you can hold your bitcoin that is not on the main chain and subject to main chain fees and still transact over lightning. And a big component of Aqua is the support for stablecoins natively. So we have liquid tether which is issued natively on liquid and we allow you to swap from liquid tether into other chains and back. So it's, it's the same as the liquid bitcoin balance. You can swap, swap out to lightning. The liquid tether balance swaps out to all the other altcoin USDT chains which is very important for the developing world where you know, hundreds of millions of people are looking for the digital dollar to use to protect themselves from inflation and just, you know, being able to save for them the dollar is like bitcoin. But having all these things in one bitcoin wallet I think is a big boost because they can swap from the tether into their two bitcoin and spend on lightning or they can go to on chain bitcoin and send it to a cold wallet. So I think it's the missed opportunity that we haven't really tackled as the bitcoin wallet development group that we've embraced stablecoins and tried to use it to get more people into bitcoin.
- [61:10]
Cynthia Lummis
And I mean from my perspective it's like if you're going to use tether why not use it on liquid instead of, you know, one of these other other altcoin chains, you know, Tron or Ethereum or whatever it might be. Where do you see this, this going next? Is there anything, you know, development wise, are you guys focusing on just kind of fine tuning right now, just improving user experience? Is there anything that people should look forward to that you can tease at or.
- [61:34]
Samson Mow
Yeah, so we raised a chunk of capital last year and we've actually doubled the team size now. So it's getting very hectic right now trying to keep organized and deal with the growth. But we've been working on a refactor of the whole UI to make it more beautiful, more streamlined. And we've been adding a lot more integrations. We're adding payment rails basically in different LATAM regions, like in Brazil, to pay through the national payment system from your bitcoin balance so you can pay pix invoices. We have a number of these in different countries in LATAM that have been under development and hopefully in the next few months they'll all start to come out. We also have a pending release of the Aqua card, which is a prepaid Visa card that you can top up with liquid USDT and liquid Bitcoin or layer two Bitcoin and it is KYC free and you can have a monthly balance of $4,000. And it's reloadable except for Americans and Canadians. That one is not reloadable, but that will come up later.
- [62:45]
Cynthia Lummis
Okay.
- [62:46]
Samson Mow
Yeah. I think this is the focus now to integrate Bitcoin with the legacy system because it is still needed. It's not gone yet. And being able to be some random guy in LATAM country with no bank account and be able to get this card and have it in your bitcoin wallet I think is a big change. But that's the thing that is the most exciting right now.
- [63:11]
Cynthia Lummis
That's, that's awesome. And yeah, I mean slightly sad for Americans and Canadians, but you know, it's, it's all thanks to these, these laws meant to protect us. Right?
- [63:19]
Samson Mow
Yeah. But you'll get a non reloadable card so everything's the same except for you'll have to get a new card once it's used up.
- [63:28]
Cynthia Lummis
Oh, okay. Okay. So we get basically the same experience. We just have a, like an additional step in there to buy the new, you know, new gift card or whatever. It works, but it functions as a, as a full debit card.
- [63:40]
Samson Mow
Yeah, yeah, but I mean our focus has always been on emerging markets and that's really why we built Aqua to give them the same bank experience as like Venmo or PayPal or Wise or whatever. But in the US you could get any card that pays you rewards. Right. This has a fee. So it's not. It's not the best card for Americans anyways, but it's a big boost for anyone that's in the developing world.
- [64:06]
Cynthia Lummis
Absolutely. Well, Samson, I think we're bumping right up against time here. Anything we didn't cover, anything you want to leave us with in these last couple moments. We have.
- [64:18]
Samson Mow
I think we covered a lot.
- [64:20]
Cynthia Lummis
We did. We made it through a lot today.
- [64:22]
Samson Mow
Yeah. It's just a very interesting time and everything is happening so fast. Like we tried to write a summary of the last week and to post on January socials and we keep pushing it back because there's more news every day that we're trying to add into the summary post of last week. So. So that's kind of where we're at. It's just more and more bullish news about Bitcoin and I think sooner or later price has to catch up to the reality of the world.
- [64:51]
Cynthia Lummis
I agree. And yeah, it does feel very suddenly from a news perspective. I have to imagine that the fiat denominated price will also experience a suddenly moment fairly soon. But Samson, thanks so much again. I'd encourage everyone to check out Aqua Wallet too, because it's really just a nice, clean user experience and has just become a regular driver for me. Thank you for your time. I'll link your Twitter or your X your nostr and I'll link Jan3 as well. But thanks so much. It was great to have you back on and yeah, keep up the great work, man.
- [65:25]
Samson Mow
Yeah, thanks Walker. Always great chatting with you.
- [65:28]
Cynthia Lummis
Likewise.
- [65:37]
Walker
And that's a wrap on this Bitcoin Talk episode of the Bitcoin Podcast. Remember to subscribe to this podcast wherever you're watching or listening, and share it with your friends, family and strangers on the Internet. Find me on noster@primal.net walker and this podcast@primal.netcoin on X, YouTube and Rumble. Just search activity at Walker America and find this podcast on X and Instagram at tcoin Podcast. Head to the Show Notes to grab sponsor links. Head to substack.comwalkeramerica to get episodes emailed to you. And head to bitcoin podcast.net for everything else. Bitcoin is scarce, but podcasts are abundant. So thank you for spending your scarce time listening to the Bitcoin podcast. Until next time, stay free.