THE Bitcoin Podcast – Episode Summary

Episode: CHOPSOLIDATION MAKE BITCOIN NUMBER GO UP | James Check (Checkmate)
Host: Walker America
Guest: James Check (@Checkmate)
Date: September 4, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Walker America sits down with James Check ("Checkmate"), prominent Bitcoin on-chain analyst, to discuss the "chopsolidation" era of Bitcoin—a period characterized by prolonged sideways price action and its implications for investors, psychology, market structure, and the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset. Together, they explore why so many Bitcoiners feel frustrated despite record price levels, the evolving role of "treasury companies," the differences between past and current market cycles, and why time in the market beats trying to outsmart it. This deep dive is packed with insights on human psychology, historical context, advanced market metrics, and practical advice for hodlers and new investors alike.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Chopsolidation, Market Cycles, and Price Frustration

• Definition & Context of Chopsolidation

  • James explains "chopsolidation" as a period of high-value sideways price action, which recalibrates market expectations and investor psychology. He likens it to climbing to a new altitude and then acclimating before the next climb.
  • Notable quote:

    "Chopsolidation has a beautiful way of getting people to sell their bitcoin out of boredom and frustration. Don't be the dude that loses it because of boredom and frustration." (01:32, 84:13)

• Investor Sentiment and Market Psychology

  • Many investors, especially those new to Bitcoin or who entered at higher prices, are disappointed by the current cycle because it lacks the explosive upside volatility of prior cycles.
  • James attributes market frustration to three main factors:
    1. People holding other assets (shitcoins, treasury companies) and missing Bitcoin’s move.
    2. Underestimating the impact of maturity and reduced volatility on the cycle.
    3. Expecting old-style cycles in a fundamentally different market.
  • Notable quote:

    "A lot of people are going oh man, this cycle sucks because it's like 2025 and we're at the same price. It's like yeah, but chop guys, chopsolidation. When this thing goes it's proven that we're now a $2 trillion asset. The next move is 3 trillion." (00:03)

2. Four-Year Cycle Structure – Is 'This Time Different?'

• Will the Cycle 'Bust'?

  • The hosts discuss whether the established four-year Bitcoin cycles are breaking down, or whether human psychology ensures cyclicality continues even in the face of new market structures.
  • James argues that while structure, amplitude, and timing have changed, the underlying behavioral patterns—fear, greed, boredom—remain intact.
  • Notable quote:

    "Human psychology is the same. Bubbles will always look very, very similar. They're constructed in the same way... Human behavior is ultimately the great constant in markets." (40:40)

• How 'Chopsolidation' Resets Investor Baselines

  • Prolonged ranges at higher prices (e.g., $100k+) cause old low prices to fade from collective memory ("75 is a long lost memory the same way $1,000 is a long lost memory"), acclimating both new and old investors to higher floors.
  • Notable quote:

    "Over time these like smaller prices disappear and they just become irrelevant. We never think about that again." (01:24, 38:18)

3. Market Structure: On-Chain Behavior, Treasury Companies, and OG Whales

• On-Chain Indicators and Their Significance

  • James details how he uses on-chain metrics like the Sell Side Risk Ratio, realized profit/loss, and movement of old coins to gauge market equilibrium and the coiling of potential volatility.
  • Massive sell-side pressure is being absorbed well at high prices, suggesting robust, enduring demand.
  • Notable quote:

    "Every sold Bitcoin is a bought Bitcoin. When you measure sell side, you're actually measuring demand." (53:28)

• Role and Risks of Treasury Companies

  • Dissects the explosion of companies (like MicroStrategy and MetaPlanet) putting Bitcoin on their corporate balance sheets; the vast majority are unlikely to outperform holding spot Bitcoin due to premium compression and lack of real buy-side.
  • These stocks behave "like shitcoins" due to pump-and-dump dynamics, insider trading, and fleeting premiums.
  • Notable quote:

    "I wouldn't say that these things are shitcoins, but... the characteristics of how they operate is shitcoining. It literally has all the properties of shitcoins." (76:50)

• OG whales & Market Flows

  • Legacy holders with massive gains (some holding since 2011) are naturally eager to take profit at extraordinary prices, creating large, public sell events.
  • Notable quote:

    "He bought in 2011. He's had the monster of all bull runs. He's on $10 billion. Like, he needs to hire a legal team to sort out his estate." (51:06)

4. Trading, DCA, and Hands-Off Strategies

• Failures of Trading for Most Investors

  • Both agree that "time in the market, not timing the market," is the winning strategy. Even with perfect bottoms picking, beating a daily DCA (dollar-cost average) strategy is very difficult — and almost impossible to predict those all-important 'explosive' days in advance.
  • Notable quote:

    "Daily DCA is how you teleport back in time because it gives you... the most average price from that point onwards. It's the best way. Consistency is the secret." (81:19) "If you miss those 10 best days, you are down on the whole cycle. You make zero money." (80:25)

• Boredom, Chopsolidation, and Long-Term Discipline

  • Much of Bitcoin investment success comes from doing nothing — not trading, not reacting out of boredom, but holding for the rare, life-changing bursts of volatility.
  • Reference to trading wisdom:

    "I made most of my money by sitting tight and doing nothing. You got that? Sitting tight and doing nothing it is." (82:33)

5. Options, Volatility & Institutional Maturation

• The Growth of TradFi Bitcoin Options (i.e., IBIT)

  • IBIT’s options market has exploded, now rivaling or exceeding Deribit's in size. This options growth enables large traditional institutions to hedge, dampening daily volatility and making Bitcoin more palatable at scale.
  • However, increased leverage and options also harbor the risk for abrupt volatility spikes if the market breaks through major resistance.
  • Notable quote:

    "For every IBIT BTC unit of Bitcoin in there, there is 40 cents worth of options open interest... leverage ratio is getting very, very big very, very quickly." (58:55)

• Pros & Cons of Decreased Volatility

  • Less volatility helps mainstream adoption and retention of 'serious' institutional capital, but reduces opportunities for fast, outsized gains—contributing to frustrations for speculators.
  • Potential for sudden reversion to high volatility if leverage gets too one-sided.

6. Gold, Macro Backdrop, and Savings Mentality

• Gold’s Ongoing Relevance

  • Gold is still important for Checkmate as a "hands-off, sellable asset" and a "shelling point" in global financial turmoil, but Bitcoin is the strategic long-term bet.
  • Notable quote:

    "Gold is still 10% of my holdings... it's there to be sold." (09:19, 14:55) "Gold becomes the bedrock and then bitcoin becomes like this liquid layer on top." (11:55)

• Macro Trends and the US Position

  • America’s unmatched financial might and its significant Bitcoin holdings make it uniquely positioned in upcoming global shifts, especially compared to gold-heavy potential competitors like China.

7. Fees, Retail Activity, and Emerging Puzzles

• Observed Anomaly: Low On-Chain Fees
  • Despite high prices, Bitcoin’s transaction fees are near historic lows, with few small (retail) transactions and a dominance of large transfers (whale/OTC).
  • Checkmate speculates this may signal declining retail/speculative activity on-chain, ongoing post-FTX damage in the broader crypto world, or simply a maturation of participants.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Chopsolidation & Market Base Reset:
  “When this thing goes, it's proven that we're now a $2 trillion asset. The next move is 3 trillion... 150, 140, 130 becomes the base. As we chop around in that zone, people buy, people sell, people transact. Suddenly people don't even think about 75. 75 is a long lost memory...”
  (00:03, 38:18)

• Four-Year Cycles & Human Psychology:
  “Human psychology is the same. Bubbles will always look very, very similar... Human behavior is ultimately the great constant in markets.”
  (40:40)

• Why Chopsolidation Hurts and Wins:
  “Chopsolidation has a beautiful way of getting people to sell their bitcoin out of boredom and frustration. Don't be the dude that loses it because of boredom and frustration. Because if you miss those 10 days, you miss what this whole thing is about...”
  (01:32, 84:13)

• On-Chain Sell Side as Buy Side:
  "Every sold Bitcoin is a bought Bitcoin. When you measure sell side, you're actually measuring demand. And this is the thing for me that's been... I look at the sell side and you've gotta, like, you know, it's all about developing a bit of a gut feel... we're at 110k and we're taking billion dollars a day of sell side right now."
  (53:28)

• Treasury Companies as Shitcoins:
  “...the characteristics of how they operate is shitcoining. It literally has all the properties of shitcoin. So it's like, functionally, the machine is what it does. What are they? They're shitcoins.”
  (76:50)

• DAILY DCA is Unbeatable:
  “Daily DCA is how you teleport back in time because it gives you... the most average price from that point onwards. It's the best way. Consistency is the secret that's actually the answer to this whole thing.”
  (81:19)

• Wisdom from Markets:
  “I never made money in the markets buying and selling and trading this thing. I made most of my money by sitting tight and doing nothing. You got that? Sitting tight and doing nothing it is.”
  (82:33)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00 – Opening, definition of chopsolidation, market psychology
• 04:10-07:34 – International shipping, US financial dominance
• 08:00-09:19 – Gold’s role in portfolios and as a “shelling point”
• 16:49-22:46 – Gold as a benchmark, measuring assets properly in gold & Bitcoin terms
• 22:46-30:36 – Causes of poor sentiment: expectations, missed moves, shitcoins, failed treasury plays
• 31:48-39:27 – Why 75k was always likely; cost basis, what might trigger new highs
• 39:27-45:51 – Four-year cycles, has this time really changed?
• 45:51-50:04 – Downside risk, diminished volatility, OG whale sell-offs
• 54:46-58:26 – Sell side exhaustion, metrics for price coiling, volatility prelude
• 58:55-65:16 – TradFi options, IBIT, institutional hedging and their market impact
• 65:15-73:34 – Analysis of treasury companies, why most fail to outperform Bitcoin
• 73:34-84:38 – Why DCA & “sitting tight” outperforms, handling FOMO and chopsolidation
• 85:34-89:36 – Surprising on-chain fee data and lack of retail, current market puzzles
• 90:31-92:27 – Where to find Checkmate’s work, educational resources

Takeaways & Actionable Wisdom

• Chopsolidation isn’t failure—it’s Bitcoin maturing, laying new “floors” for future cycles.
• Investors most at risk are those too clever by half: trading, over-allocating to proxies, or underestimating how market maturations shift outcomes.
• Simple, consistent DCA remains king; most traders are better off “sitting tight and doing nothing.”
• Large, slow price steps hurt speculators but help institutional adoption by taming volatility.
• Trends to watch: continued institutional option market growth, declining on-chain retail activity, and further consolidation in treasury company survivors.

Where to Go for More

• Checkmate’s Charts & Analysis: CheckOnChain.com
  (All the discussed charts, free, geared towards hodlers, not traders.)
• Walker America and THE Bitcoin Podcast:
  • WalkerAmerica.Substack.com
  • BitcoinPodcast.net
  • Social: @tcoinpodcast / @WalkerAmerica

Enjoyed the episode? Remember: sit tight, embrace the chopsolidation, and stack sats.