Podcast Summary: The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast with Tim Kotzman
Episode: Who Owns Bitcoin Now? with Konstantin Kogan
Date: February 20, 2026
Guest: Konstantin Kogan, founder of Holistic Capital
Host: Timothy Kotzman
Episode Overview
This episode dives deep into shifting ownership dynamics in Bitcoin through the turbulent market of 2025, exploring the increasing role of institutions, the impact on decentralization, and what the future holds for both retail investors and large-scale treasuries. Discussions also range over Michael Saylor’s influence, institutional psychology, stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization, macroeconomic risks, and the intersection between finance, technology, and human resilience.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Changing Ownership: From Retail to Institutions
- Recent Shift (00:13):
- In 2025, research shows approximately 829,000 BTC were added by institutions, while 696,000 BTC were sold by retail holders.
- “About 84% of institutions, like they're changing hands from retail.” — Konstantin Kogan [00:22]
- Implications:
- Institutional rise brings liquidity and reputation (e.g., sovereign wealth funds, BlackRock).
- Concerns exist around centralization and loss of “cypherpunk” or libertarian roots.
- Market is less decentralized than before; only ~68-69% retail at start of 2025, now dropping sharply.
2. Why OGs and Retail Sell at Key Levels
- Psychology of Selling (03:04):
- Some long-time holders ("OGs") sold at around the $100,000 psychological mark.
- Reasons include tax optimization, life pressures, and emotional volatility.
- Contrasted with institutions' long time horizons and “chagrin skin”—the ability to withstand volatility.
- Quote:
- "Retail, as we know, we're humans, we're intrinsically flawed, we're emotional...sometimes you panic sale and that's the reality." — Kogan [04:20]
3. Michael Saylor’s Impact and Institutional Strategy
- Personal Anecdote (06:00):
- Kogan recounts meeting Saylor, calling him a “mesmerizing, straight-to-the-point evangelist of Bitcoin.”
- Shares Saylor’s unwavering, Warren-Buffett-style 10-year view on Bitcoin holdings.
- Quote: “He gave me a 10-minute lesson of long-term investment. It was very harsh…” — Kogan [08:00]
- Saylor’s Audience vs. Kogan’s (10:10):
- Saylor influences C-suite executives at major corporations, catalyzing public company treasuries.
- Example: Advised Elon Musk (Tesla) and Jack Dorsey (Square) on their BTC purchases.
4. Mainstream Finance & Public Sentiment
- Reluctant Endorsements (12:10):
- CEO David Solomon (Goldman Sachs) only admits to small personal Bitcoin holding; hesitancy tied to managing institutional reputations.
- Institutional acceptance is now seen as mandatory (13:12): “It’s no longer an option. They have to talk about it otherwise they're going to start losing clients.”
- Financial Industry’s Core Competencies (14:10):
- Goldman Sachs now has more software engineers than Google—evidence that high-speed, algorithmic trading is central to their business.
5. Structural & Economic Parallels
- Scarcity and Finance (18:19):
- Bitcoin likened to the Medallion Fund: “Invite-only” scarcity, deflationary model, ultimate in-demand asset.
- “If you think about a deflationary nature… 21 million, we already know that the last block will be mined in… 2140, right?”
- Comparison to Gold (19:20):
- Bitcoin surpasses gold due to transparency, ease of transfer, and lack of trust intermediaries.
6. Adoption Metrics & Early Days
- Statistical Reality (21:26):
- Only ~102 million Bitcoin wallets exist globally—still under 7% of the world’s population holds any crypto asset.
- “If that doesn’t tell you that it’s very early, like, I don’t know what can.” — Kogan [21:40]
- Most BTC is not held by miners or maximalists—retention is about resilience and long horizons.
7. Future Trends: Stablecoins, Tokenization, and Macro Dynamics
- Stablecoins as Liquidity Driver (35:20):
- Movement towards instant settlement, T+0 clearing, and banks increasingly using blockchain.
- Real-world assets (RWA) tokenization is the next frontier—expected $3-5T in RWAs to go on-chain in 3-5 years.
- “I think it’s inevitable…” and will add liquidity and “bring more excitement” to Bitcoin.
- Institutions and Control (38:00):
- Technological rails threaten legacy systems; only ~150-300 families currently control the vast majority of global money flows.
- Tokenization attacks that control and could democratize asset access.
8. Risks, Geopolitics, and Hope
- Economic and Global Risks (27:19, 28:06):
- Personal experience with currency collapse (USSR, Venezuela) highlights what could happen in the US or globally.
- AI and quantum computing present unpredictable macro risks: “Whoever gets access to quantum computing… would have access to breaking the codes, the security systems of the defense agencies.” — Kogan [28:40]
- Social risks: Increasing polarization threatens pluralism of thought.
- Resilience and Holistic Perspective (46:45):
- Kogan underscores gratitude, family, and the importance of retaining perspective in the face of financial and existential uncertainty.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (With Timestamps)
- On Retail vs. Institutional Ownership:
- “The narrative of weak hands, diamond hands... now there is this narrative about the concern of whether Bitcoin is losing its values as a decentralized asset.” — Kogan [01:10]
- On Institutional Imperative:
- “They realized they cannot ignore [Bitcoin] completely or they're going to lose their job.” — Kogan [03:47]
- Michael Saylor’s Philosophy:
- “He gave me a 10-minute lesson of long-term investment. It was very harsh and I learned the hard way that he is committed—similar to Warren Buffett—like a ten-year horizon.” — Kogan [08:00]
- On Wall Street Fees & Scarcity:
- “Only the high performers, they have the audacity to raise the fees... It’s the same principle as in Bitcoin... You don’t want it, it’s okay. We have hundred other allocators who would love to get in.” — Kogan [16:54]
- On Gold vs. Bitcoin:
- “You have the perception that [gold] is something safe. But in reality, someone in Fort Knox holds for them and they don’t even know if it’s audited or not.” — Kogan [20:05]
- On Adoption Curve:
- “There has never been in the history of finance something that so meteorically went up just by the sheer trust of human beings.” — Kogan [22:10]
- On Human Vulnerability and Value:
- “When the question is of life and death, we focus on the most important things, which is our family... I just advise to remember that at some point.” — Kogan [47:45]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Retail to Institutional Shift: [00:13–03:04]
- OGs Selling & Behavioral Finance: [03:04–05:30]
- Michael Saylor Case Study & Interview: [06:00–10:10]
- Finance Industry & Tech: [14:10–16:46]
- Scarcity and Medallion Fund: [18:19–20:05]
- Adoption and Early Stage Analytics: [21:26–22:10]
- Stablecoins & Tokenization: [35:20–38:00]
- Macro Risks & Geopolitics: [27:19, 28:06–33:07]
- Closing Thoughts on Value & Perspective: [46:45–48:51]
Episode Tone & Style
- Conversational and Candid: Lively, with banter and analogies (crypto as girlfriends, Bitcoin’s future LLMs, etc.), self-deprecation.
- Balanced and Analytical: Focused on understanding market realities over ideological debates.
- Occasional Humor: Running “girlfriend” gag about market volatility and personal finance.
- Personal Experience: Kogan shares firsthand stories of financial collapse and the stakes of trust.
Final Thoughts & Where to Find the Guest
- The future of Bitcoin treasuries and digital assets is being shaped by the interplay of technology, psychology, and institutional strategy.
- Rapid innovation in finance (stablecoins, tokenization) will likely drive substantial inflows, with risks and opportunities evolving in tandem.
- Kogan's holistic perspective: growth in crypto is about much more than money—it’s about integrity, pluralism, and remembering what is truly important.
Learn more:
- Konstantin Kogan’s firm: Holistic Capital
- His podcast: Holistic Investments
(Summary compiled by The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast Team, February 2026)