The Blueprint with Jen Psaki: Decision 2025

Podcast: The Blueprint with Jen Psaki (MSNBC)
Date: November 3, 2025
Main Guests: Jennifer Palmieri, Larry Sabato, Anthony Coley, Jim DeBoot, Brad Lander, Malcolm Kenyatta

Episode Overview

This special pre-election episode of The Blueprint, hosted by Jen Psaki, brings together top Democratic thinkers and strategists to analyze key 2025 elections with implications for the 2026 midterms. The conversation focuses on pivotal gubernatorial, legislative, and judicial races in New Jersey, Virginia, California, New York, and Pennsylvania, alongside discussion of the broader Democratic strategy to confront “Trump 2.0” and regain political momentum.

The theme: What’s the winning formula for Democrats in the new Trump era, and how can the party shape a better future?

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Big Picture: Stakes and Strategy

• Why these races matter: Races discussed are immediate indicators of national enthusiasm, Democratic candidate recruitment, and how “the Trump factor” is turning into a liability for Republicans.
• Democratic energy: A new NBC News poll shows Democrats with an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot and a 7-point enthusiasm edge. As Psaki puts it, “Voters are more engaged than they have been in years.” (08:01)
• Turnout: Massive early voting is seen in key states like New York and Virginia, suggesting high engagement and possible Democratic momentum.

2. State-by-State Deep Dive

New Jersey:

• Governor’s Race: Democrat Mikey Sherrill faces a tight contest in a state that Trump lost by only 6 points in 2024—a race watched for signals about Democratic strength in blue states.
  • Polling: Sherrill's team projects a 4-8 point victory, but with emphasized caution regarding traditionally Democratic male voters potentially holding out on supporting a woman candidate. (13:58)
  • Key Quote:

    “Her team is focused really on turning out traditional Democratic male voters that may have a little unease, even though they don't say that in polling, with voting for a Democratic female candidate.” — Anthony Coley (15:01)

Virginia:

• Governor & Statehouse: Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads in the gubernatorial race; the attorney general race and all 100 House of Delegates seats are also up.
  • Government shutdown impact: The federal shutdown orchestrated by Trump has led to voter anger, especially among Virginia’s large federal workforce, potentially increasing Democratic turnout.
  • Redistricting: Democrats could expand their slim 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates, affecting future congressional maps.
  • Key Quote:

    “Unhappy voters tend to vote...if the surveys are correct, [Spanberger’s] winning by upper single digits and even low double digits. That may be enough to pull all of the ticket in.” — Larry Sabato (10:54)

California (Prop 50):

• Redistricting Ballot Measure: Seen as a direct response to Republican gerrymandering in Texas, Prop 50 is a major focal point for Democratic organizing and enthusiasm.
  • Democratic surge: Over 6 million ballots already returned; enthusiasm is high, with massive volunteer mobilization.
  • Margin matters: A large “yes” vote margin is viewed as a national message of Democratic vitality and activism.
  • Key Quotes:

    “The bigger the margin, the bigger the message, which is one, California cares about the rest of the country, and two, Democrats are back on their front foot fighting.” — Jim DeBoot (23:54)
    “We actually built out a very, very broad coalition that included not only donors, but labor and Planned Parenthood and all of these other groups that came in to help.” — Jim DeBoot (28:00)

New York City:

• Mayoral Race: Zoran Mamdani, a young Democratic Socialist, is the clear front-runner, buoyed by Obama’s “endorsement adjacent” support and an energized grassroots campaign.
  • Cuomo’s negative campaign: Andrew Cuomo’s scorched-earth tactics, including AI attack ads and efforts to woo Trump voters, have backfired and created “a dumpster fire” atmosphere.
  • Jewish voter outreach: Mamdani’s extensive local outreach yields high-profile endorsements; Chuck Schumer’s lack of endorsement is noted as an outlier.
  • Key Quotes:

    “New Yorkers are hungry for some hope and Zoran is giving it to us. And even President Obama, I think, is caught up in the hopeful energy.” — Brad Lander (31:03)

Pennsylvania (Supreme Court Retention):

• Judicial high stakes: Billionaire Trump donor Jeff Yass funds a deceptive campaign to unseat three Democratic justices via retention votes, aiming to deadlock the court and undermine checks on gerrymandering and election subversion ahead of 2026 and beyond.
  • Clarified impact: Voting “no” would jeopardize liberal control, not simply enact “term limits,” as misleading mailers suggest.
  • Grassroots defense: Democratic messaging focuses on the justices’ constitutional integrity and resistance to Trump-aligned judicial activism.
  • Key Quote:

    “You have Republicans, including Jeff Yass, who is spending millions of dollars trying to get rid of our three Supreme Court justices, not because they're not upholding the Constitution, but actually because they are upholding the Constitution and because they refuse to work for Donald Trump like so much of the federal judiciary.” — Malcolm Kenyatta (41:59)

3. The Trump Factor: Liability or Asset?

• Narrative Shift: Trump’s continued prominence is now “a sinking anchor” for Republicans, energizing Democrats more than Republicans and providing the opposition with potent messaging on elitism and insensitivity.
  • Notable Moment: Trump hosts a “Great Gatsby” theme party at Mar-a-Lago during a mass loss of SNAP food benefits—used to highlight tone-deaf Republican priorities.

    “Trump and his underlings are literally partying like Gilded Age royalty while planning for the building of a tacky and expensive White House ballroom.” — Jen Psaki (04:07)

4. What Issues Are Resonating?

• Affordability is front and center: All Democratic campaigns, despite different contexts, have pivoted to a laser focus on lowering costs and economic anxiety—a grassroots message echoing voter concerns across demographics.
  • Quote:

    “They're running on affordability. They're running on cost in different ways… It's very low to the ground about what kind of issues people are experiencing.” — Unknown Political Analyst (15:53)

• Culture War “Bear Hug” Fails: Republican emphasis on culture war issues (notably trans rights) fizzled in Virginia; 2025 is not 2024, showing issue salience shifts quickly.
  • Quote:

    “It hasn't sold. It just, it's flaked out. It's not like 2024 at all. So every year different.” — Larry Sabato (18:46)

5. Democratic Party Messaging & Generational Change

• Candidate Quality: Democrats’ ability to recruit charismatic, forward-looking candidates is seen as a crucial test (“Can Democrats attract candidates in places that people are excited about?”).

• Grassroots Power: Across all races, a major organizing and volunteer effort is evident—particularly in California, with 65,000 volunteers and 42 million voter contacts for Prop 50.

• “Main Thing is People”: A through line in all successful campaigns: government works for ordinary people, not elites or corporate interests.

  • Key Quote:

    “The main thing is people deserve a government that works for them. Unlike what we're seeing at the federal level right now where Donald Trump is literally having a Great Gatsby bash as millions lose access to food…” — Malcolm Kenyatta (45:06)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Trump’s negative impact:

  “President Donald Trump is all but ensuring defeat for Republicans and his party is doing next to nothing about it.” — Citing Jonathan Martin, Politico (03:12)

• On enthusiasm and turnout:

  “Democrats are really turning out...that's the most important thing to look for, for what it means for 26.” — Jennifer Palmieri (09:03)

• On culture war issues failing:

  “When the campaign began...Winsome Earl Sears went heavy on the trans issue...it hasn't sold. It just, it's flaked out.” — Larry Sabato (18:46)

• On grassroots organizing:

  “We have 65,000 volunteers on this campaign. We're going to eclipse 42 million attempted contacts of California voters.” — Jim DeBoot (25:24)

• On core Democratic values:

  “I think what this new Democratic Party is doing... is being clear about what elections are about in the first place. It's about people's lives.” — Malcolm Kenyatta (43:47)

• On Cuomo’s campaign meltdown:

  “It kind of seems like he's trying to align himself with Trump and have Trump’s voters help him win. I mentioned his appearance, of course, on Fox News this morning... He's fueling Islamophobia. And just all he's got is scare tactics.” — Jen Psaki (32:09)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Start / Setting Election Stakes: 00:58 – 05:49
• Analysis of Polls and Democratic Turnout: 06:57 – 09:03
• Virginia Deep Dive (Sabato): 10:11 – 13:13
• New Jersey Deep Dive (Coley): 13:13 – 15:19
• Shift to Affordability Issue: 15:53 – 18:28
• Virginia Culture War Failure: 18:35 – 18:46
• California Prop 50 Segment (Jim DeBoot): 22:41 – 29:35
• New York City Mayor’s Race / Obama Call: 29:35 – 34:08
• Pennsylvania Supreme Court / Judicial Races (Kenyatta): 36:44 – 45:18

Conclusion

This episode of The Blueprint serves as both a primer and a strategic discussion for Democrats on the eve of multiple pivotal elections, where the common threads are high engagement, an energized grassroots, and a unified message on economic issues and democratic norms. Panelists are clear-eyed about the risks—including Republican-backed judicial gamesmanship and the ongoing Trump-driven backlash—but optimistic about the revitalization of Democratic organizing and appeal.

As Malcolm Kenyatta sums up (45:06):

"Keep the thing the thing. The main thing is people deserve a government that works for them."

Listeners are left with a sense of both the stakes and the new energy animating Democrats as they contest Trumpism and work to regain power at every level in 2025 and beyond.