B (4:43)
General Charles de Gaulle, who was the leader of the French military in opposition to the Nazis, he became the President of France. But it was a weak presidency in the Fourth Republic and the government failed. He was very frustrated. The French Fifth Republic that was put in place in 1958, at least in part to bring General de Gaulle back, put him in power, he demanded a very strong presidency. How strong? Let's just say no American president has the kind of power the French President has. And that is because it was basically created around one person. You say, well, that's never happened before. Yes, it did. It did happen. Before it happened in the American Constitution, that largely created the presidency around the person of George Washington. And so this is a very interesting political fact. When you're coming up with this kind of constitutional order, you have some model in mind. In the United States, that model was George Washington. He was clearly going to be the first president. And he actually set many of the habits and customs and practices followed by presidents thereafter. In France, the Fifth Republic, largely created around the person of General de Gaulle, then President de Gaulle, and President de Gaulle had an extremely strong image of the presidential office, far stronger than is found in almost any other nation. And the French president has the power to name prime ministers, and the prime minister represents the entire government. The President of France, by the way, can't fire a French prime minister. He can just request that the prime minister resign, which is kind of tantamount to the same thing. But, you know, it's the kind of finessing the French love. But I'll tell you where the French are right now. The French in their Fifth Republic, which is just about as old as I am. As a matter of fact, you look at the French Fifth Republic, Charles de Gaulle was its model. You have had some successful French presidents. You've had some unsuccessful French presidents. Emmanuel Macron was elected, took office, as I said, in 2017. He was a technocratic leader. He formed a new party. He was supposed to bring technocratic efficiency to the French government. And you know, this is something that was kind of parallel on other fronts politically. You had Tony Blair of Great Britain and Bill Clinton in the United States. Both came to political power basically as new political models. They advertised themselves more technocratic. It came a little later in France, but it came in a big way with Emmanuel Macron. He was from the political class. Now in France, the political class just get this. Most of the highest ranking people in the political class in France graduate from one school, just one school. So it's a tightly, very, I'll just say self referential group. And there are political differences. There's a left, a right and a center. But in France, the political class is overwhelmingly a professional political class. Again, in the United States, quite different. Peanut farmer Jimmy Carter, of course, he'd been elected to previous office, was the governor of Georgia, and had been involved in politics for a long time. But let's just say he didn't come from the political class. Donald Trump, you know, emphatically, his entire brand is he didn't come from the political class. His only elected office has been two terms elected as President of the United States. Let's just say that's rather unprecedented. But the problem for France is the fact that its economic situation is dire and the numbers just won't add up. And that is because France has had an expanding welfare state, massive government spending. You know, one of the recent prime ministers just tried to eliminate two paid holidays in order to move a little bit towards resolving some of the fiscal crisis. And unrest in the streets broke out. The French weren't about to have the elimination of two paid holidays. Their nation is facing an absolute fiscal cliff. And you know, the far left and the far right have absolutely opposed proposals, but they actually have proposals. And guess what's not working is the technocratic center. Another lesson, just in terms of democratic constitutional self government. If the middle, or something like the middle doesn't hold and isn't competent and can't solve the problem, then you have alternative arguments that enter. And, you know, let's just say in the United States right now, not completely different, we have a democratic socialist young Muslim who's running way ahead in the race to be the mayor of New York City. Now, that's not the President of the United States, but that does tell us something about what's going on here and in France and in many other European nations, what they're really worried about, the political class is scared to death of a conservative uprising. They're scared to death of what they will define as the parties of the right. And in both of his presidential elections, Emmanuel Macron is facing off against a conservative alternative. And you know, that conservative alternative is still very much there and waiting in the wings. Emmanuel Macron has been doing everything possible to operate out of the center left, and that means a lot of government spending, technocratic solutions that don't work, a welfare state that is, frankly, not being paid for. The French economy is going to suffer, and there's no plan to get France out of this crisis. It's going to be incredibly politically costly, and it might cost Emmanuel Macron his political and historical reputation. And there are open calls for him to resign as president. He says he won't do so, and frankly, there's not much reason for him to do so. There's every reason, at least by his own calculation, to stay in power, hoping that things just might get better. Of course, they just might get worse. So it's going to be interesting to watch. But which is better? That's a legitimate question. The English parliamentary system, is that better? Well, I don't think so, although I admire the British, but I don't think so. I don't think that fits America. For one thing, we do not have a head of state who is a crowned head, who's a monarch, and we don't want one. So you know what? We're going to have to elect a president and we're going to have to have a strong executive. The strength of the American system is its strong executive and its clear delineations of three branches of government and respective powers. The French system, well, you know, I think American presidents might be just a little envious of the power of French presidents. And, you know, they don't have to put up with the separation of powers in the same sense that American chief executives do, because basically by the appointment of prime ministers and by the appointment of government ministers, you have a French president having incredible power over the legislative process. But nonetheless, it is also, I think, a tell. It's a very interesting situation here that we do have to refer to the current government of France as the Fifth Republic, and that refers to Fifth Constitution. Soon, we presume, the fourth prime minister in just about a year under President Macron. At this point, very late in his second term, France is in a crisis. This demonstrates what it means for France to be in a crisis. How it got into it is now easy to explain. How it gets out of it, that's going to be harder to explain, but very interesting to watch. But at this point, I think we need to shift and just consider that there once was a time when this kind of technocratic leader was very much in vogue in European governments. The idea was we're not going to put up with the kind of populist leaders. We're not looking for charismatic, colorful candidates. We're looking for technocratic professionals. The exceptions to that have been pretty spectacular. And that was kind of the way that Ronald Reagan ran, by the way, when he ran for the office of President of the United States. He'd been an actor, he'd been a spokesperson for General Electric. He was elected governor of California for two terms, but he did so as a non politician. And of course, he had served as California governor. He's governor of the nation's largest state for two terms before he ran for president. But he still had the non politician image. Meanwhile, you had other people like, well, Gerald Ford, who became president after the resignation of Richard Nixon. He spent his lifetime in Congress in electoral politics, and that has been the norm for much of American politics. But in European politics, even more so. And a recent article appeared in the New York Times telling about a meeting known as the Global Progress Action Summit in London, it really was brought about by political leaders of the left, and you might say here the center left, that is to say, more democratic party than democratic socialist. And in the uk, of course, they have the current Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, who was by definition a technocrat, very much like Emmanuel Macron. He rose kind of quietly and without much personal charisma to be the head of the Labour Party. And then the Labor Party won the election. And thus he is now the Prime Minister of Great Britain. But he's kind of just holding on. He's one of the least popular prime ministers of recent history. And honestly, he just hasn't been able to make as much political headway as he could if he had a lot more popular support. He just doesn't seem to be able to attract that kind of popular support. This particular meeting about which the New York Times is reporting, is about center left leaders trying to figure out how they can block the right in their respective countries. Who appeared, for instance, from the United States? Well, two interesting governors. One of them was Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, who was the vice presidential nominee of the Democratic party in the 2024 election. J.B. pritzker, the governor of Illinois, showed up. So you had two American governors adding their two bits, so to speak, to that conversation. You also had other figures, such as Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, the ultimate technocrat. He was head of two national banks, the national bank in Canada and the national bank in Britain. And so you can't talk about anyone more technocratic in terms of the way we speak of that in government, in terms of the inner workings of government in kind of a technological way. I mean, you're looking at the Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, as like the poster boy for that entire movement. They are in trouble because of pressure coming from the populist right, in some sense. They also have some challenges from the more extreme ideological left, but in the main, their challenges coming from populist uprising. That's certainly true in Europe. It's something very interesting to watch. It's also interesting that let's just say this kind of meeting collects some pretty interesting people. Maybe American voters ought to remember this as well. Okay, then shifting to the fact that in changes of government, Japan is also in a period of political turmoil. And the big story there, in worldview terms, is that the next prime minister of Japan is likely to be a woman. That's never happened before. So you can do the math that she would be the first woman prime minister of Japan. So it's a Very interesting story. Her name is Sanae Takaichi, and she is likely to become the head of the Liberal Democratic Party, and she's likely to become the Next Prime Minister. Ms. Takeichi is a very interesting character because she is described. Even the New York Times says this. She is a hard line conservative lawmaker who, quote, won a critical leadership vote on Saturday last week, putting her on track to become Japan's first female prime minister. A milestone in a country where women are vastly underrepresented in politics. Okay, so what makes this really interesting is that there's a pattern here. So Hillary Clinton was the Democratic presidential nominee, the first female nominee for the office of president in the Democratic Party. She ran against Donald Trump in 2016, and even on election day, she was sure she couldn't lose. She did lose. Kamala Harris, the second Democratic female nominee. She didn't come to the nomination by a normal means. It was, of course, the resignation of President Joe Biden from the race that made all the difference. A big soap opera there. But the big story is, I think at one point, she clearly thought she was gonna win the election, and she didn't. So what's the point? Well, who was Britain's first female prime minister? Margaret Thatcher. And she was prime minister of Great Britain from 1979 to 1990. Britain's Iron Lady. So what's the lesson here? The lesson is, and it looks like it might be repeated here in Japan, that when the first woman is elected to this kind of high political office, she's not a liberal, she's a conservative. And that just seems to be a really interesting pattern. Margaret Thatcher, Britain's Iron lady, won, but she won in a very defined role. She won leading a conservative resurgence in the Conservative Party in Britain. And it took Britain's Iron lady to see those reforms through. And that's a remarkable tenure from 1979 to 1990. And even right now in Britain, as much as liberals hated her in Britain, the fact is that she is still spoken of with enormous respect because of her transformational power there in the country. I think there are even some liberals who would like to go back to the stability of Britain in that age. And in Japan, it now looks like Sanae Takeichi is going to become the first female prime minister. She really is a hardline conservative. And by the way, what does that mean? Well, it's, of course, related to fiscal.