The Briefing with Jen Psaki
Special Edition: Decision 2025 Election Preview – “The Blueprint”
Date: November 3, 2025
Host: Jen Psaki, MSNBC
Overview
This special, election-eve episode of “The Briefing” doubles as a TV edition of Jen Psaki’s podcast, “The Blueprint.” Psaki is joined by political strategists and state leaders to analyze key 2025 election contests in New Jersey, Virginia, California, and New York. The discussion centers on Democratic prospects, the ongoing Trump effect, redistricting battles, voter enthusiasm, and shifts in campaign messaging, setting the stage for an exceptionally consequential Election Day.
Main Themes & Discussion Points
1. Setting the Stakes: Why These Elections Matter
- With major statewide and legislative contests two days away, Jen Psaki frames the show as a strategy preview for Democrats and a postmortem on Trump-era Republican influence.
- Major focus on:
- New Jersey (Mikey Sherrill’s gubernatorial race)
- Virginia (Abigail Spanberger for governor, key legislative and AG races)
- California (ballot Prop 50, redistricting counter-move to Texas GOP)
- New York City (Zoran Mamdani’s historic mayoral run versus Andrew Cuomo)
“Republicans have the added challenge of trying to overcome the Trump factor, which is... more of a sinking anchor than anything else. I mean, in many ways, he is perhaps the best driver of turnout for Democrats.”
— Jen Psaki, [03:08]
2. The Trump Effect and Democratic Messaging
- Trump’s unpopularity, controversial policies (e.g., canceling NJ infrastructure, government shutdown in VA), and out-of-touch optics (Gatsby-themed party as millions lose SNAP benefits) are used by Democrats to energize voters.
“Trump and his underlings are literally partying like Gilded Age royalty while planning for the building of a tacky and expensive White House ballroom. And that tone deaf message... is giving top Democratic surrogates exactly the kind of closing message they need right now.”
— Jen Psaki, [04:34]
3. Key Races Breakdown
A. Virginia
- Gov. Abigail Spanberger: Large lead, but AG race competitive due to candidate controversy.
- Legislature: House of Delegates races have big implications for future redistricting power.
“If you spend any time [in VA], you’ll run across a lot of very angry voters... They’re going to turn out whether it’s early or on Election Day. So every indication we see here is that Democrats should win.”
— Larry Sabato, [10:09]
- Republican nominee’s focus on “trans issues” flopped, shifting campaign attacks:
“When the campaign began... Republican Winsome Earl Sears went heavy on the trans issue... You know what? It hasn’t sold. It just, it’s flaked out. It’s not like 2024 at all.”
— Larry Sabato, [17:51]
B. New Jersey
- Mikey Sherrill favored, but margin watched closely given state’s rightward trend and large pool of unaffiliated voters.
- Gender dynamics at play: some traditional Democratic male voters uneasy about supporting a female Democrat; campaign focused on turnout among these groups.
“What I’m hearing on the ground is that her team is focused really on turning out traditional Democratic male voters that may have a little unease, even though they don’t say that in polling, with voting for a Democratic female candidate.”
— Anthony Coley, [14:02]
C. California, Prop 50
- Ballot measure to redraw congressional maps in response to GOP efforts in Texas.
- Strong Democratic enthusiasm, crossover support from some Republicans.
“To me at least, Democrats are extremely excited to vote in an election... The bigger the margin, the bigger the message, which is one, California cares about the rest of the country and two, Democrats are back on their front foot fighting.”
— Jim DeBoot (Prop 50 senior advisor), [23:01]
4. The “Affordability” Messaging Pivot
- Democratic candidates focused on kitchen-table issues (cost of living, energy costs, utility bills) as their top message, with Trump’s unpopularity serving as a booster, not the centerpiece.
“They have the benefit of the anger around Trump and... what kind of role the government is playing... But they’re running on these issues that really... affect people’s daily lives.”
— Jennifer Palmieri, [14:59]
5. New York City Mayoral Race
- Zoran Mamdani, a young Democratic Socialist, is set to become NYC’s youngest mayor in over a century. His movement receives an “endorsement-adjacent” phone call from Barack Obama, signaling establishment approval without a formal endorsement.
- Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, deploys negative, AI-generated ads and leans into anti-Mamdani sentiment.
“He’s energizing all these people. And now he even has former President Obama going about as far as he lets himself go in these sorts of circumstances... That’s pretty endorsement adjacent.”
— Jen Psaki, [32:01]
- Mamdani’s broad outreach, including to Jewish communities, is highlighted, though some establishment leaders, like Chuck Schumer, are still holding back on endorsement.
6. Under-the-Radar: State Supreme Court Battles
- Wisconsin and Pennsylvania: billionaire involvement (Elon Musk in WI, Jeff Yass in PA) targeting “sleeper” judicial retention races with potential national implications for redistricting and election law.
- In PA, coordinated effort to unseat three Supreme Court justices to gridlock the court until after 2026, which could favor Republican, anti-democracy legal strategies.
“What three no votes would do is take three liberal leaning justices off the state Supreme Court and leave the court... basically unable to act as a check against Republican anti democracy efforts before or after the 2026 election.”
— Jen Psaki, [39:36]
Notable Quotes & Moments
- On Trump’s political impact:
“The most revealing element of next week’s election is that President Donald Trump is all but ensuring defeat for Republicans and his party is doing next to nothing about it.”
— Quoting Jonathan Martin, Politico ([03:08]) - On Democratic voter enthusiasm:
“Democrats have an 8 point edge on the generic ballot. They also have a 7 point enthusiasm edge... To see how... the early vote is looking, that’s looking very good. That is also high.”
— Jen Psaki, [06:11] - On the importance of margins:
“If you want to look for something that might last, you want to see big margins. And they may be coming in Virginia... Virginia may supply the most positive news for Democrats outside of Proposition 50 in California.”
— Larry Sabato, [11:53] - On the shift in campaign tactics:
“What’s interesting in Virginia is Trump has never actually formally endorsed the Republican state for governor... I think it’s because he thinks she’s going to lose, and you know how he feels about losers.”
— Larry Sabato, [17:51] - On the PA Supreme Court battle:
“You have Republicans, including Jeff Yass... spending millions of dollars trying to get rid of our three Supreme Court justices, not because they’re not upholding the Constitution, but actually because they are...and because they refused to work for Donald Trump, like so much of the federal judiciary.”
— Malcolm Kenyatta, [41:56] - On Democratic core message:
“The main thing is people deserve a government that works for them, unlike what we’re seeing at the federal level right now where Donald Trump is literally having a Great Gatsby bash as millions of Americans lose access to food because he’s illegally withholding the funds. And I think that’s really the through line of this moment.”
— Malcolm Kenyatta, [44:18]
Key Timestamps
- [03:08] — Framing the 2025 elections: Trump’s effect
- [06:11] — National polling & Democratic momentum
- [08:09] — Jennifer Palmieri on candidate quality & turnout
- [09:59] — Larry Sabato on Virginia, local impacts of shutdown
- [13:03] — Anthony Coley on New Jersey election margins & uncertainties
- [14:59] — Palmieri on affordability as key message
- [17:51] — Larry Sabato on failed “trans issue” campaign in VA
- [21:05] — Prop 50 in CA, national significance
- [23:01] — Jim DeBoot on the Prop 50 campaign surge
- [30:34] — New York City mayoral race: Obama’s call to Mamdani
- [39:36] — Pennsylvania Supreme Court under-the-radar campaign, billionaire influence
- [41:56] — Malcolm Kenyatta on the PA Supreme Court retention race and Democratic values
Summary Table: Spotlight Races
| State | Race / Issue | Notable Developments | |------------|-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Virginia | Governor & AG, House | Spanberger leads; AG race tight due to controversy; GOP “trans issue” attack fizzled | | New Jersey | Governor (Mikey Sherrill) | Dems expect win, watching unaffiliated voter turnout & gender-based challenges | | California | Prop 50 (Redistricting) | Huge Dem, crossover GOP enthusiasm; national message against GOP gerrymandering | | New York | Mayoral (Zoran Mamdani) | Mamdani surges with “endorsement-adjacent” Obama support; Cuomo goes negative, seeks Trump voters | | Pennsylvania | Supreme Court Retention | GOP billionaire-backed push to gridlock the court, high stakes for national election law |
Tone & Style
- Conversational, insider-y, “war room” energy with clear Democratic optimism and urgency.
- Willingness to call out both GOP messaging failures and Democratic vulnerabilities.
- Focus on the interplay between local issues and national narratives, especially Trump’s continued influence.
- Strong emphasis on turnout, margins, and the power of grassroots organizing.
Takeaway
This special episode serves as both a primer and a rallying cry for Democratic engagement in the pivotal off-year 2025 elections. With Trump’s shadow looming large, a focus on affordability, and redistricting at the forefront, Democratic strategists are cautiously optimistic— but urge voters not to take anything for granted. The “Trump effect”, voter enthusiasm, coalitional breadth, and the shifting focus of campaign messaging all set the stage for a consequential Election Night.