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[00:00]
A
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Yeah.
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B
So do we here at Designer Shoe Warehouse. We'll give you something to brag about, like the latest styles from brands you love or the trends everyone's obsessing over or shoes that make you feel like, well, you. So go ahead, show off a little. Find shoes that get you and prices that get your budget. Head to your DSW store or dsw.com today. DSW. Let us surprise you. It is primary night in six states across the country and polls are now officially closed in Wisconsin and Minnesota, where some of tonight's marquee races are happening. We've got Ali Velshi, of course, standing by at the big board wearing his special vest as we have all come to love. And he's gonna bring us the latest results as they come in as well. We'll keep you very updated on those as we get any results. I've also got some of my favorite people to talk politics with here at the table. This is quite a group. They've probably been through, I don't know, approximately 100 elections or more as a collective group. They know a lot of things. They've been watching all of this very closely. And there are a ton of interesting races and dynamics to keep an eye on tonight, including some that will test and maybe even confirm, I mean, some of the big political trends that we have seen play out this year to date. So here are just a few and there are a lot of things to watch tonight. But here are a few of the things that I'm watching tonight. First, there is the power of Donald Trump's endorsement inside his own party. His record of success within his party has been mixed at best this year. He has won some of the races, the primary races his candidates have won where he has endorsed. And more recently, he has lost some of the primary races where he has endorsed. Just five days ago, we watched Trump backed Congressman Andy Ogles lose his primary in Tennessee. Two days before that, Trump suffered an even more embarrassing loss in Michigan when his chosen candidate lost to an opponent who had already dropped out of the race. And no matter what he says about the midterms, and he says a lot of things, you know, he cares about the perception of his own power here. And that's an interesting thing to watch. Now, in South Carolina, Trump threw his weight behind Darlene Graham, the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham. But Trump's endorsement didn't exactly clear the field there, not at all. A recent Emerson College poll even found that 53% of South Carolina Republican primary voters said Trump's endorsement has no impact on how they would vote. And remember, this is a very red state, one that has very much voted for Donald Trump in every time he has run for President Trump. As of this hour, we can report that Darlene Graham will not win enough votes to clinch the nomination tonight. She wasn't expected to coming in tonight, to be fair, but she will advance to a runoff against Congressman Ralph Norman. But again, with the full backing of Donald Trump, Darlene Graham is barely cracking 30%. So the success of Trump endorsed candidates is definitely something to keep an eye on tonight. There are others to watch there, too. Now on the Democratic side tonight, it's also a test of whether or not voters will once again reject establishment backed candidates in favor of insurgents, in favor of people who don't feel like traditional politicians, who don't feel like they come from Washington in some cases. In Wisconsin, state Assembly member and Democratic socialist Francesca Hong may be poised to become the Democratic nominee for governor. And this is an interesting story because she has unexpectedly risen to the top of a field, and that included the state's current and former lieutenant governor, who were both forced to exit the race amid lagging poll numbers and campaign issues. Wisconsin's Democratic governor and much of the party's establishment have rallied around Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who, and this is another bizarre twist in this race, left the race last month and then reentered the race just over a week later at the urging of some in the party establishment. Now, keep in mind as we're watching this, people in Wisconsin have been casting early votes and voting by mail through the month of July. And many people did participate in that already. So whoever wins that race is likely to face off against Wisconsin Republican Congressman and election denier Tom Tiffany, who is seeking his party's nomination for governor. And what a guy. Lots to be said. But for those of you just getting to know him, Tom Tiffany was one of 147 members of Congress to vote against certifying the 2020 but honestly, as we look at the results tonight and who's running his election, denialism looks kind of like child's play when you look across the border at neighboring Minnesota, where tonight conspiracy theorist and failed pillow salesman Mike Lindell, yes, that guy is still kicking around. Is running with Trump's endorsement to be his party's nominee for Minnesota governor. If he wins tonight, he will likely have to face off against the state's very popular senator, Amy Klobuchar, who is seeking her party's nomination for governor. So the potential rise of election deniers is certainly also something we're going to be watching tonight. I'll also be keeping an eye on the Democratic primary for Senate in Minnesota, where we are watching yet another contest between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party. Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is running with the support of progressive lawmakers like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, as well as the state's outgoing senator, Tina Smith. And she, of course, is facing off against Congresswoman Angie Craig, who has the backing of Democratic leaders like Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi and Pete Buttigieg. So like I said, there is a whole lot to follow tonight, all of which could tell us a lot about what kind of candidates and what message is appealing to voters and what to expect this November. And on that front, we also got some big news tonight from the world of elections forecasting. It's quite the time for elections forecasting. We're going to be watching all of it. Polling guru Nate Silver just released his forecast for November's midterm election. His models put Democrats chances of retaking the house at 87%. And even more notably, those same models put Democrats chances of retaking the Senate at 57%. What matters is what happens on election Day. But still interesting data as we look to the next few months. With all that in mind, let's dig into tonight's results. Joining me now here at the table, Emma is now chief national reporter and host of the excellent news show that launched this week, still state of play, Peter Alexander, msnow chief Washington correspondent and co host of the weekend, Eugene Daniels, msnow political director Shawna Thomas. And also joining the fun, tonight's Democratic strategist and senior advisor to majority Democrats and the bench, Liz Smith. Liz, you wish you were at our fun table with us, but we are so happy you are still here with us. Let me start with you, Peter. First of all, welcome.
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A
Thank you for having me.
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B
You are here.
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A
I'm used to doing this in the briefing room, but now we get to do it on one team.
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D
That's right.
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B
That's right. You can grill me if you want. It's fine. I want to ask you about South Carolina because Trump has endorsed a number of candidates through the course of the primary season. Some, as I mentioned, he has won, he has spent. There's been money spent that I think some of the Republican Party would prefer he not spend, but that's a different story. He decided to weigh in in this race for Darlene Graham, presumably because of his relationship with Lindsey Graham. She cracked 30%, barely. You need 50% to not have a runoff. I don't want to overread into it or under read into it. What do you make of it?
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A
Well, we got a long way to go to the general for the president to pick at his candidate to win this thing. There are a lot of other votes out there. Almost 7 in 10 of the other votes among Republicans in that state went to someone who Donald Trump did not endorse. That's saying something at this point right now. I mean, let's focus on the Graham name in that state. Obviously, it's as resonant as any that there is there. But just a reminder about Lindsey Graham himself. Take a step back. I remember traveling with Jeb Bush. We were in South Carolina during that 2016 campaign. Lindsey Graham was on the campaign bus and he was fuming about this guy named Donald Trump. Boy, did times change quickly. And then after January 6th, Lindsey Graham came around again. And Lindsey Graham said, you know, I've had enough of it. I'm done. I'm off. Of course he came around and supported Donald Trump when he won once again in 2024. So obviously, as it relates to loyalty, the Graham name gets a whole lot because they have come back to Donald Trump over and over. The question is, as noted by the polls that you said there, do the folks in that state care? Mark Sanford, and we know all the controversies about him. His name has still got plenty of votes so far in this early primary. The bottom line is the expectation is whoever wins that Republican primary, though, and then wins the, you know, wins the runoff that comes is going to be the likely Senate, the person that serves in that seat for the next six years.
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B
The seven in 10 who did not get votes is an interesting thing because uniting after a primary, the general election electorate is a whole different story. Shona, let me ask you, you've been digging into all of the nitty gritties of these races. We were just talking about a primary happening up in Connecticut before we came out here, which you wouldn't think we'd
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E
care about which you wouldn't think. No offense to Connecticut.
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B
No, no, no. It's all interesting to watch. We're political nerds here. What are you as you're looking at these six states in these races, what are you most watching tonight?
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E
I think what I'm watching and I'm actually going to go back to that Connecticut race. It hasn't been called yet. It's Connecticut one. It is long term incumbent John Larson, Representative John Larson running against, I believe the mayor of Hartford, former mayor of Hartford, former mayor of Hartford. And right now it looks like the former mayor of Hartford is up. Not all the votes are in, we understand. But I keep coming back. We keep having this conversation about progressivism versus moderate Democrats and these internal primary fights. And I'm starting to wonder if really the story that we are seeing is about establishment and age to a certain extent versus the outsider candidates. And I think in that race, if the mayor, the former mayor is able to pull it out, I think that plays into what we saw, let's say in Colorado where Diana DeGette lost to a young now that was a progressive movement person, but a young person. And I think we are also seeing that play out in states like Iowa, Michigan. We may see this play out in Wisconsin. But people seem to be, at least in these Democratic primaries, seem to be wanting the person who isn't the person from Washington, D.C. who isn't the person who has been in office for a long time and wants to continue to have that power. But a lot of the people out there think they have nothing to show for that power when it comes to their own lives. So I am wondering, well, you see one a coalescing around someone like Francesca Hong who is running for governor or who's running for the Democratic in the Democratic primary for governor and see the Democratic Party try to coalesce around her if she were to pull it out. Because there's an energy that is happening when it comes to not being the establishment. And in Iowa, as I mentioned, there is this situation where you have two interesting Democrats running for senator and for governor there. And they're not necessarily progressives. They seem to both be moderates. They seem to both be running the race. They are supposed to be running in Iowa. But neither of them is necessarily totally aligned with the Democratic Party. Neither of them is running as though they are part of the establishment. They are running against the establishment. And I think that's the thing we're gonna see and we're gonna see does that energy carry you to the general, which is when this all starts to matter?
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B
It is, really. And I wanna bring Liz Smith into this conversation. Cause Liz and I grew up in Democratic. Still young, of course, but we grew up in Democratic politics together. And I think we both remember, well, when party leadership really selected the nominees. Now, you would never say it that way exactly, but they would.
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E
But you can now.
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B
Now we can. We're free. You know, they really did because they would put money behind it. They would endorse. And now it looks very much like party leaders are not picking the nominees. In fact, party leaders pushing nominees is. It's a negative in many of these races. But I want to ask you about Wisconsin in that regard, because you brought up Francesca Hong. I think this is one of a really interesting primary race. I think most people would not have bet that she would be the nominee just a couple of months ago. I mean, there was the sitting lieutenant governor, the former lieutenant governor, both who were relative pretty popular in the state, relatively so among the Democratic Party. Both of them had to drop out of the race. The establishment had to kind of encourage Crowley to get back in the race. There's a lot happening here, I would say. But I want to ask you just what you think Democrats, party activists, party workers, should take away from Francesca Hong. Kind of rising in this race. The general election is a whole other question. But I want to ask you about how we got here.
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D
Yeah. So let's put aside her tweets and past statements about Thanksgiving and defunding the police. She's actually shown herself to have some really good political instincts that allowed her to tap into what Wisconsin voters care about. And the issue that she tapped into very smartly was data centers. Wisconsin really is one of the ground zeros across the country for the data center debate. All across the state, communities are up in arms about what they see as an intrusion of data centers on their water and air and quality of life and land. And this is not a partisan issue. It is an issue where 76% of people in Wisconsin feel like the deck is a little bit too stacked toward the data centers, including 67% of Republicans. And that tells me that she has found a message that, yes, worked really well in a Democratic primary, but could be really, really salient in a general election. And keep in mind, Jen, you talked about how we had a long history in Democratic politics. So I'm going to do just a short history of Wisconsin politics. In 2018, Scott Walker lost in the squeaker of an election, and the deciding Thing was his decision to give out a massive, massive set of tax breaks to a foreign corporation called Foxcon that came in, took billions of dollars, promised to create 13,000 jobs, and didn't deliver on it. The data center debate is very reminiscent of it. And it shows that, yes, even though Francesca Hong is on the far left of the Democratic Party, that she's tapped into an issue that could motivate Democrats, motivate independents, and get MAGA Republicans even on her side. And I think that's something that we sometimes don't think about in national politics. We focus on the tweets and all that. But there are some really important local dynamics there that she has been very astute in playing off of.
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B
That's such an interesting. I mean, sometimes we don't talk enough about the issues that are local that really determine. I mean, Iowa cancer is a huge issue. And the rise of cancer, it has one of the highest rising rates in the country. And on data centers, Tom Tiffany, who is likely to be the person who is running against Francesca Hong if she wins this nomination, has even said. I think he said that he. He's against tax breaks. My point is, he said a little bit on data data centers because they're so unpopular that there's like bipartisan opposition to them. Okay, Eugene, I wanna bring you into this. We've talked about. We've jumped around a bit because I think there are a lot of things to pull from tonight. There always are. But what are you watching for? What do you think is most interesting?
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F
To me, it continues to be about fighting. Right. Like, I think the thing, especially on the Democratic side and the Republican side, what we're seeing from voters is they're looking for people who are going to fight, whether that means fight with the establishment here in D.C. fight with the establishment within their own states, fight with the Republicans in November. That is something that, when I was on the ground, in all the places that we've all been talking to folks on the ground, that is what voters are looking for. And if Francesca Hong is able to pull it off, I think it's still gonna be tough. The polling has been difficult. And the polling has been difficult because for Francesca Hong, for Abdul El Sayed, they are trying to create a different coalition than usually comes out. Right. And so that's why polling is sometimes in these moments, kind of unpredictable. You have usually Michigan, for example, because that's what we have. You have black voters that are always going to come out. You have some of the moderates who are always going to come out what they were anticipating in the polling was all these young voters who are the Abdul El Sayed parties at the rallies. That's the same thing that we're seeing with Francesca Hong. If that holds, it's still going to be the same thing. Fighters, who are the people who are going to Washington D.C. who are the people who are going to be running my state, who are going to fight. And I think there's been this conversation about, oh no, the DSA is Democratic, Socialists are taking over the Democratic Party. I don't think that's the case. I think you're seeing some people who are probably a little bit more moderate around the country also winning. But that's because they sound like they are ready to fight. I think what people are sick of is people who sound like a moderate, people who seem like they're going to go along. They get them.
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A
I was going to say to the point that Eugene is making, I think the gist was that these people are dissatisfied. These Democrats are dissatisfied just with a anti Trump message. They want a pro something message. They want someone who is fighting for something, not just I'm going to take on Donald Trump. And that's a message that's resonated. Another takeaway to Eugene's point though that we're also seeing here that we should acknowledge is Marquette Law School does a lot of the polling as it relates. I know we have opinions on polling, but broadly in terms of trends, it can help you out. And over the last 15 years, there has been a significant a doubling of the number of people in the state of Wisconsin who now identify as very liberal. And that's moving much faster than the number of people who identify as very conservative. So, Tom, Tiffany, you got a House Freedom Caucus guy here, right. So that's gonna be a little interesting, conceivably against a Democratic socialist. But the democratic energy is moving further and further to the left right now because they are the ones who are saying we wanna fight for something in particular. And I think that's resonant.
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F
And Jim. And you only have an insurgency, it only is able to flourish if the moderates of the establishment has not done their job. If people are discontent with their behavior, if people are discontent with the work that they've done, whether it be at the State House or here in Washington D.C. if they're discontent with their job.
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B
Yeah, go ahead, Shawna.
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E
Well, and I think, Eugene, you went to the DSA convention, you went with Hunter Woodall, our researcher. And one thing from Yalls reporting that really stood out to me was the discontent with the Democrats in that case, because Trump won again.
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F
Right.
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E
And that is that same like, okay, what are you. What. What does it mean for you to fight for me if Trump won again?
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B
That.
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E
That's where some of that anger is
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B
like, we need something different.
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E
We need something different. And I don't think that that particular. Just because that was Democratic socialists talking to you, talking to Hunter. Okay, yes. That's part of the progressive argument. But I think you see that anger with Democrats in general in a lot of these places. So what are you going to do for me now? You haven't done anything before. Maybe I should choose something else.
[19:44]
B
I want to bring Liz back in here because a part of this we now move. We're going to move by tomorrow to the general election. And that is the key part of this that will determine who wins seats, who's up against who. And we've seen with some of these candidates that have been really exciting people. They've been saying, you know, we're a part of a movement. We're in this movement together. We're inviting people into a movement versus I'm electable. Which is a message you've heard from a lot of these candidates who are losing. But they also have. I'm gonna say it's kind of the millennial candidate problem is they have, you know, Twitter histories, they have YouTube histories, they've done hundreds of podcasts. You referenced earlier before. I mean, Francesca Hong, she's got a lot of things going for her. She's created this movement in the state. Trump is very unpopular. But she also has a number of past statements that are not gonna sit well, probably with people who are independent voters, more moderate voters, or they're gonna have. She's gonna have to answer for them. I'll say it that way. You've advised lots of people through lots of things. What should I mean? El saleed. I'm gonna say he is also. Dr. El said he's been having the same challenge. Right. Which is having to answer for past posts and statements. As much as they are exciting movements, what should they be doing in this moment? Are they doing the right thing? Should they be doing something else? What do you think?
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D
Well, I think a great example of someone who handled this very, very well was Zoran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race. A lot of people would have thought that no one who had ever embraced defund the police would win a citywide election in New York City, but he was able to. And how? Because he came out Right away when he was asked about it and said, that is not my position. I will not defund the police. Not only that, I'll keep the headcount at the NYPD stable. And then when they found all comments of his criticizing nypd, he went and he apologized directly to nypd and he apologized on Fox News. And I think just be normal about it. Don't go around, you know, laughing about it, saying, oh, you know, woke one was crazy. Just own up to past mistakes. A lot of people make past mistakes and move beyond it. Because if this race is all about Francesca Hong's tweets, that's not great terrain for her. But if she can disavow those old tweets and make it about Tom Tiffany's record being an extremist on, you know, an election denier on abortion, someone who has supported Trump's Iran war, that has raised prices across the board, that's a fight that she can win. But if it's all about her old tweets, it's not. And I think, again, not everyone, Francesca Hong, nor Abdul El Sayed has the communication skills that someone like Zoran Mandani does. But they would be smart to look to his example and how he handled these during his mayoral race.
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B
Okay, everyone stay where you are. We have to take a break. We know how this goes. We can share with you that Tom Tiffany will be the nominee in the state of Wisconsin. So we do know that from our results. There you go. You can see the results on the screen. Not exactly a close race there, but he will be the nominee. Ali Velshi is standing by at the big board. He's going to tell us where things stand when we come back.
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G
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Sounds delicious.
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B
Okay, we're starting to get the first results out of Wisconsin where a ton is on the line for tonight's primaries, especially in that Democratic primary for governor. We've talked about it a little bit, but Ally Vilshi's at the big board to break everything down for us. Ali, what are we seeing right now?
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C
Well, I want to just start in Minnesota for a moment because we have. The Associated Press has just projected that Amy Klobuchar will be the Democratic candidate for governor. This is not a surprise. Interesting to see that zero percent in. There's just some advance vote in a few places. But this was never really that much of a contest. There are seven candidates in total. So Amy Klobuchar is there. Let's go over to Wisconsin and take a look at what's going on there. We also mentioned Tom Tiffany is the, a Republican nominee for governor. But let's go with the Democratic governor's race there with 9% in, David Crowley is in the lead right now. Francesca Hong is in second place, about four and a half thousand votes separating them. Francesca Hong is only at the moment winning in two counties right now. La Crosse county in western Wisconsin and down here in Kenosha county, which is Kenosha. She's leading there. We do not yet have numbers in from Milwaukee County. Milwaukee. We do have numbers in from Dane county where she's from. Very, very close. It's within 90 votes in Dane County. Now let's take a look at the, at the, the Senate race in. Hang on a second. Let's look at the, the governor's. I'm sorry, I'm in the wrong place here. Let's take a look. Let's go back one more time. Let's go to Wisconsin. Okay, let's look at the Senate race in Wisconsin. The governor's race in Wisconsin. This is the one that you were just talking about. We are, we're looking at these, these numbers coming in. It's only 13% in. But this is not what we or what polls have been telling us that we're expected to see a gain of 4,000 points for David Crowley. David Crowley was in the race then he was out of the race. Then he was back in the race after so many people dropped out in favor of Francesca Hong, who was polling very strongly. You were just talking about that. So we're watching that very closely. And then I want to look at the Minnesota Senate race for just a moment and tell you what's going on over there. Again, zero percent in. So we're in no position to make any predictions about what's going to happen. Peggy Flanagan has a small lead of about 300 votes in Minnesota. But let me show you how this is coming in in sort of population centers. In Alexandria, for instance, Angie Craig has a small lead again, just 40 votes there in a little bit south of that, 58% for Angie Craig. Angie Craig also winning in Washington County, 49. But again, look at that, a lead of one vote. Take a look at where we haven't got vote from. We've not got vote from. We don't have vote from Hennepin county, which is the most populous part of the state, but we do have votes in from Ramsey County. That's St. Paul. And Peggy Flanagan has got 54% of the vote. But again, this is just 73 votes. So this is going to populate over the course of the next hour or so. I'll stay very close to you to tell you what's going on on the Republican race. By the way, Michelle Tafoya is in the lead right now. When I spoke to Peggy Flanagan and Angie Craig last night, they expected that they'll be facing off against Michelle Tavoya, but that hasn't been decided yet. And in the Republican governor race, worth noting, Mike Lindell, the foam pillow guy, is in third place right now with 18% of the vote. Lisa DeMuth is in the lead again, very small numbers, 117 votes there. Jen.
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B
Ali Velshi, thank you. It's early, but it's interesting. This is why we have to kind of keep our eyes open and be open to where the results are, what they're telling us on election nights. We're going to be checking back in with you very shortly. Thank you. As always. Peter, Eugene and Sean are all back with me and joining us from Francesca Hong's campaign headquarters in Madison, Wisconsin. Is Ms. Now reporter Will McDuffie will tell us. You know, it is early. The reporting is very early. The numbers are coming in. We're very early stages here. We're only 30 minutes since the polls closed, but it's closer, I think, than many people expected. What is the mood there at the Han campaign?
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H
Well, Jen, I'll be honest. We've been here since Friday morning and it hasn't felt like a 20 point lead for Hong, which is what a poll on Friday said. We've just met so many Democratic voters who are worried about her electability in November, and that includes people who identify as progressives, people who like her policies. They just don't think this is the race to push that kind of platform. They don't think it's going to work. They're smart. They've lived in Wisconsin. They know how close these races are. And at the same time, though, I mean, it's important to note that Hong has built this remarkable campaign. I mean, she came out of nowhere. No one knew who she was when she entered this race a year ago. She was a chef in Madison. She had a very popular ramen restaurant. She's been a state assembly woman. And as you guys have noted, she's a democratic socialist. But she's been able to really build a groundswell of support that's gone beyond just the young progressive base. I mean, we were in Sheboygan with her on Saturday night and she held a town hall and we met three couples over the age of 60 who had been turned onto her by either their grandkids or their children. So they've been able to build that movement beyond just the base. And one thing that Liz said earlier in this hour is spot on. She hammers the data center issue and she got in on that early. And in fact, she told reporters this morning that the first thing she's going to do if she wins this race in November on day one is to call a special session of the legislature to try to impose a moratorium on new data center development.
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B
Yeah, it's such an interesting we've seen obviously, the rise of data centers as an issue, but this is a race where I feel like it's so present in what people are talking about, what she's talking about. Let me ask, as you've been talking to voters over the last couple of days, did they know who Crowley is? Are they excited about him or it's more for the people who told you they weren't voting for Hong. They were worried about vulnerability. She had. What are you hearing from people in that regard,
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H
I'd say it's a little more anti Hong and they realize that Crowley is probably the best moderate establishment option. I mean, he's endorsed by the governor here, Tony Evers, but his campaign has been like a total odyssey. I mean, he dropped out a month ago. He had a planned vacation to Jamaica that he had to cancel to get back in the race. And a couple voters have told me they don't like the looks of that. They don't understand. If he's such a fighter and is worthy of being governor, why didn't he stay in this thing and fight it out the whole time?
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B
Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, also, people were early voting in Wisconsin and voting by mail, and I'm so interested in that factor. Will McDuffie, thank you so much for all of your reporting on the ground. We'll keep checking in with you too, throughout the evening as well. All right, I want to come back to the table here. So let's start with you, Shauna. I mean, we polling is imperfect, right? Sometimes you assume, and we saw this in Michigan last week as well. There were polls showing El Said who still won the primary up by 10, 15, 20 points. And you start to see many of those. And then you start to assume this is where it is headed. What do you make of the dynamics of what we're seeing? Again, it's early, but so far with
[32:00]
E
these numbers, I mean, I think one, I think it's very difficult to pull primaries in battleground states, open primaries, which Michigan and Wisconsin, which means if you're an independent, you can go vote in whichever one you want. If you're a Republican, you can go vote in the Democratic primary. If you're a Democrat, you can go vote in the Republican primary. You gotta choose one, but you can do that. I think that makes it a little bit more difficult to pull. And one thing is I was reading Nate Silver's what you mentioned earlier today is his forecast is going for instead of just likely voters, registered voters, I believe. And so that is a larger group. And if people like Abdul El Sayed, if people like Francesca Hong even in the primary, are able to get some of those slightly more low propensity voters to actually show up in a primary, that can kind of skew the polling a little bit as well. So I think in both of those states, as we saw in the 2024 election, as we've seen in other elections, they're battleground states. These are 50, 50 states people are trying to figure out who's gonna win come November. And I think any of these polls that you see that are way, way, way in one direction or another, you have to keep coming back to the idea that Michigan, for example, 2024, Trump won 2024, the Democratic senator won as well. These are these states. And really on a day like today, what I like to say is voters are voting. We have to just let them vote at a certain point.
[33:28]
A
I was going to say one of the takeaways. This is a conversation. It's nice to watch as the numbers come in. This is going to be close. We'll likely be up late or we'll wake up in the morning and watch Day to Play and find out what happens here.
[33:37]
B
But hopefully we'll be up before that.
[33:39]
E
But watch for what you said.
[33:40]
A
But what I would say is this just a reminder to folks at home, excuse me, because so much of the conversation is about the intra party fighting between the progressives and the moderates. I was speaking to the former Democratic state party chair in Wisconsin today, Ben Wickler, who said very clearly to me, said, peter, this is a 48, 48 state, not even a 50, 50 state. You got 48% vote for Democrats in the general, 48% are going to vote for Republicans. And then the remaining folks in the middle, that's what's going to decide this thing. And that's what happens over and over again. 2.6 million Wisconsinites voted in each of the last two elections. In 2020. Not in the general election, voted, I should say, in 2022 and in 2018. In 2022, the Democrat Tony Evers won by 90,000 votes. Four years earlier, he won by 30,000 votes out of 2.6 million. This thing is close. So we can talk about it all we want and all the divisions and what have you. At the end of the day, the belief is that everyone sort of coalesces. So it really comes down to that little core number of Wisconsin folks who make these decisions.
[34:38]
E
But I also think the data centers issue, I have heard Liz brought it up. We know that Francesca Hong has made a big deal of it. I have heard multiple Democratic groups, multiple campaigns behind the scenes say this issue allows me to talk to Republicans and independents. Now, that doesn't mean they expect the Republicans to come vote for them in November. It doesn't mean that those independents are gonna vote for them in November. But it does mean they've found something that allows people to get a little past their partisan divide and have a conversation about what do these Data centers mean for the area of town that I live in. And in Texas, there was this headline last week. Greg Abbott, the governor, the very long term Republican and well liked governor in Texas, put a moratorium on data centers in Texas. And I looked at that and I said, he knows he has a problem.
[35:28]
B
Yeah.
[35:28]
E
That doesn't mean he's going to lose. But it means they are seeing something. This is how I analyze it. They are seeing something in their numbers that says, one, this issue resonates. Two, I gotta do something. And I have the ability to do something because I am the sitting governor.
[35:43]
B
I mean, Francesca Hong and Steve Bannon are talking about data centers. Eugene, one last thought before we go to commercial break.
[35:50]
F
I think what's so interesting, we're looking at the numbers. Francesca Hong, a Democratic socialist should not in normal times have a chance, Right? Like this idea that the party's been taken over by Democratic socialists. Not true. But what it does show is that democratic socialism is not as scary as it used to be. People are so desperate, voters, normal humans are so desperate for change in their lives. They're looking at capitalism and they're saying sometimes, you know, that hasn't really worked, especially for young voters and young people. And so I think the, the voters are not just telling us who they want to be in office, they're also telling us the kind of things they want them to work on, whether it's data centers or other things. But they're also saying you have to go up there and shake the table. And if folks aren't doing that, if folks aren't actually listening to their voters, they're gonna kick them out. Right. That's how you end up with someone named Donald Trump after he just had Joe Biden.
[36:38]
A
To be clear, this is all a function of the Donald Trump era. That's what has changed, is the Trump model shifted everything.
[36:44]
B
It's no doubt about it. Yes. Lots more to discuss. I will hold my thoughts. We have to take a very quick break, but this is a very live bot in Wisconsin tonight. We're polling leading up to tonight's show. Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong way, way up in this race. But where the early numbers are, they're showing a very, very close race. We will see. We're going to be tracking it closely. We'll be right back.
[37:11]
G
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People at their best get their beauty rest. Well, we have a race on our hands in the marquee race of the night in Wisconsin. Ali Velshi is at the big board, still there, wearing the vest. He's there. We love it. Ali, tell us what's happening for this race for governor. We just talked to you, but I know numbers are coming in. Tell us what's going on right now.
[39:28]
C
Yeah, well, lots come in, actually, since you and I talked. First of all, 43% of the vote is in, so it's coming in at a good clip. David Crowley is in the lead now by 7,000 votes, 42% to 39.6% for Francesca Hong Kong. Now, you've talked about this, but it's worth reminding everybody David Crowley wasn't in the race. He was in the race. He got out of the race and he endorsed this woman, Sarah Rodriguez, who then got out of the race, but she was on the ballot before she got out of the race. So she's got about 10,000 votes. Mandela Barnes, former lieutenant governor, also has about 10,000 votes. So they've got 20,000 votes between them that are not actually counted in this whole thing. The lead, 7,000. Let's look at where these votes are coming from. We don't have votes from a lot of counties. The ones in white we don't have votes for, but we have votes from every populated area in the country in the state. Milwaukee county is 74% in. The lead is 2,000 votes for David Crowley, 46% to 43.5%. Madison, which is where Francesca Hong is from, 44%. So that's on the low end, but she's running at 41 to 38, so not a very big lead in Dane County. In eau Claire County, 72% is in. She's got a good lead there. Francesca Hong's leading 9% against David Crowley. In Wausau, 81% is in. Again, almost look at the lead. It's four votes for Francesca Hong. And in Green Bay, 34% is in. David Crowley is leading there by five points. So this is a tight race. We obviously want to see more vote coming in from Milwaukee, 74% is in there. And Dane County, 44%. This is probably one of the most liberal counties in the entire state. This is the University of Wisconsin, Madison. So lots happening here. It's a tighter race than polls leading up to tonight were indicating. They showed Francesca Hong with such a lead that people like Mandela Barnes got out of the race saying, hey, there's obviously only one candidate. So a guy who was not fully in the race until recently is now in the lead in Wisconsin by less than two points.
[41:22]
B
All right, Ali Velshi, we're going to continue to check back in with you. The numbers keep coming in. This is turning into a real nail biter in Wisconsin. We're going to talk about what it means with the panel when we come back. Okay, I know we've been talking about this, but it's just worth restating that. Most polls headed into election day show Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong with a very safe double digit lead in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary. And she could certainly still win. But as you can see, with a little more than half of the vote in, Francesca Hong is down to the establishment backed candidate, David Crowley, which is, I think, not where most people expected this to sit. With 51% of the vote in, Peter Alexander, Eugene Daniels and Shawna Thomas are all back with me. And I think we're gonna go to Ali Velshi too, and check with him in a moment as well, as he's getting more votes in, first of all, I'm curious and I'm ask Ali, this early vote, what's interesting to me, one of the things is that there was over 100,000 people who voted in July and during early vote and vote by mail, that was a period of time where Crowley was in and out of the. He was in and out of the race. Right. He was out for just over a week and then back in. So we'll see if those have been counted. Maybe they have, maybe they haven't been, but we'll check on that. But what do you think this is saying right now about the electorate? Let me start with you, Eugene.
[42:53]
F
I think part of it is, I think it's more about us in the media that cover these things, is we chase often what is the juiciest story that we can tell? What's the clearest story that we can tell about the election was the clearest story we can tell about this primary instead of sometimes just like letting the voters tell us what it is. What we heard from Will McDuffie on the ground is that like some people, people weren't interested in Francesca Hong to vote for. Just because someone goes to a rally does not mean they're going to vote for that person on Tuesday. Right. It doesn't mean that they are going to actually think that person can be electable. And so we have to do a better job as well. I think we do great here in ms, but like the larger media ecosystem in making sure that when we're telling the stories, we're telling all the exciting part of Francesco, because, oh, out of nowhere. But then maybe that's not the story of tonight.
[43:43]
B
She. And she is exciting and she has been running a grassroots campaign, but sometimes the people who are not the most exciting are what the electorate is looking for. We'll see what happens tonight. What do you think, Peter?
[43:54]
A
I think that the biggest takeaway for me and in the conversations with folks who watch this stuff very closely, is that 2018, the last midterm for Donald Trump, specifically in Wisconsin, was resistance to Trump. 2026, right now is resistance to Trump and resistance to a system that the people feel like has not delivered for them. It's this whole point that we're making about a frustration with the establishment. I witnessed it on the ground when I was in Michigan just a matter of days ago, a frustration that Chuck Schumer was endorsing the more centrist candidate here. There is a sense that people want someone that's fighting for something they're frustrated with being told the way they're supposed to think. And I think that's really honestly what for me is, again, the biggest takeaway, not just for what we're watching tonight, but broadly, certainly across a lot of these states in recent months.
[44:38]
B
I mean, Shauna, you're gonna be just diving into all of this data tomorrow. You're the nerd and the best kind of nerd with your team. What are you gonna be looking when you have time and you're not sitting on here talking to us? What are you gonna be diving into about these? What we've seen so far, the results that we know of. Even if Francesca Hong wins this primary,
[44:57]
E
I think I'm looking at how many people actually in this primary. We are in an August primary. A lot of people are on vacation. They aren't necessarily going to show up for a primary. How many people? And what does that say about energy? That's why I was sort of obsessed with the amount of turnout in Michigan. I've been looking into the turnout that was in the Texas primary. What does that tell us? How many of those people are Democrats versus Republicans? I think one other thing you have to remember is do not underestimate the voter. Someone who decides to show up or even send their ballot in. If they get a mail in ballot or go to early vote in a primary, that means they are paying attention. And that's why I'm interested in what the turnout is.
[45:41]
B
All things to watch. I wish we could keep talking, but Lawrence o' Donnell's gonna do it up for us too. Peter, Eugene, Shawna, thank you so much for being here. Thanks for talking to me. All right, we'll be right back. That does it for me tonight on quite an election night. Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co founder of angie. One thing I've learned is that you
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Summary6 min read

Podcast Summary: The Briefing with Jen Psaki

Episode: Midterm primaries pit the establishment against outsiders
Date: August 12, 2026
Host: Jen Psaki, MS NOW
Main Guests: Peter Alexander, Eugene Daniels, Shawna Thomas, Liz Smith, Ali Velshi (results), Will McDuffie (reporting from the field)

Overview:

This episode dives into the high-stakes, dynamic midterm primaries across six states, focusing on how the primaries are pitting party establishment candidates against outside insurgents. Jen Psaki and her panel analyze key races, discuss the current political climate, and provide live updates on primary results, particularly in Wisconsin and Minnesota. The conversation centers on themes of party power, outsider energy, polling surprises, and the rise of provocative local issues like data centers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Power (or Weakness) of Trump’s Endorsement

Mixed Track Record: Jen Psaki reviews recent primary results showing that Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates have experienced both wins and notable losses (e.g., Andy Ogles in Tennessee and a candidate who lost in Michigan to someone who had dropped out).
- “His record of success within his party has been mixed at best this year.” (03:05)
South Carolina Case Study: Trump’s endorsement of Darlene Graham (Lindsey Graham’s sister) only resulted in her receiving about 30% of the vote, pushing her into a runoff.
- Peter Alexander notes, “Almost 7 in 10 of the other votes among Republicans in that state went to someone who Donald Trump did not endorse. That’s saying something.” (07:45)

2. Democratic Primaries: Establishment vs. Outsiders

Wisconsin Governor’s Race: Francesca Hong, a Democratic Socialist and Assembly member, surges unexpectedly to the top, challenging establishment figures like David Crowley (who briefly left and reentered the race), and with both current and former lieutenant governors bowing out amid polls and operational issues.
Insider vs. Outsider Energy:
- Shawna Thomas says, “I keep coming back…to progressivism versus moderate Democrats and these internal primary fights. And I’m starting to wonder if really the story that we are seeing is about establishment and age…versus the outsider candidates.” (09:29)
- In Iowa and Michigan, even moderate Democrats running as outsiders are resonating with voters tired of ‘party insiders.’

3. The “Fighter” Factor: What Voters Want

Desire for Candidates Who Fight: Across both parties, there’s an appetite for candidates seen as fighters—not just anti-Trump, but pro-something.
- Eugene Daniels observes, “They want someone who is fighting for something, not just I’m going to take on Donald Trump. And that’s a message that’s resonated.” (17:50)
- Panelists agree that merely running against Trump or being passive isn’t enough—voters want passion, purpose, and challenge to the status quo.
Why Insurgency Flourishes: Discontent with establishment performance is fueling outsider momentum: “You only have an insurgency…if the moderates of the establishment have not done their job…” (18:43, Eugene Daniels)

4. The Rise of Data Centers as a Local Issue

Wisconsin’s Unique Battleground: Hong’s campaign is fueled by her stance on data centers, a bipartisan concern in Wisconsin over environmental and community impact.
- Liz Smith highlights, “She’s tapped into an issue that could motivate Democrats, motivate independents, and get MAGA Republicans even on her side.” (13:23)
- This issue is likened to the 2018 Foxconn controversy and is noted as a model for focusing on hyperlocal, resonant issues.

5. Polling & Media Narrative Gaps

Polling Surprises & Cautions:
- Early polls showed Hong with a double-digit lead, but live results show a much tighter race. Open primaries and the participation of independents complicate the polling picture.
- Shawna Thomas: “It’s very difficult to poll primaries in battleground states, open primaries…” (32:00)
Media Storylines vs. Reality:
- Eugene Daniels critiques media “chasing the juiciest story,” suggesting the electorate may ultimately opt for stability (Crowley) despite Hong’s dynamic campaign. (42:53)

6. Live Results/Updates

Wisconsin Governor (Democratic Primary): With more than half the votes in, David Crowley leads Francesca Hong, contrary to polls—much of the panel discusses factors at play, including early voting dynamics and uncertainty among voters about electability.
- “With 51% of the vote in... Francesca Hong is down to the establishment backed candidate, David Crowley, which is, I think, not where most people expected this to sit.” (41:22)
Minnesota Governor: Amy Klobuchar is projected to win the Democratic primary for governor.
Republican Nominee for Wisconsin: Tom Tiffany, an election denier, will be the GOP nominee.
Minnesota Republican Primary: Mike Lindell is running (with Trump’s support) but in third place.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Trump’s Endorsement:

“Almost 7 in 10 of the other votes among Republicans in that state went to someone who Donald Trump did not endorse. That’s saying something at this point right now.”
—Peter Alexander (07:45)

On Outsider Energy:

“A lot of the people out there think they have nothing to show for that power (of incumbents) when it comes to their own lives.” —Shawna Thomas (09:29)

On Data Centers:

“She [Hong] has found a message that, yes, worked really well in a Democratic primary, but could be really, really salient in a general election.” —Liz Smith (13:23)

On What Voters Want:

“What people are sick of is people who sound like a moderate, people who seem like they're going to go along.” —Eugene Daniels (16:16)

On Handling Past Controversies:

“Just own up to past mistakes. A lot of people make past mistakes and move beyond it. Because if this race is all about Francesca Hong's tweets, that's not great terrain for her.” —Liz Smith (21:03)

On Polling Cautions:

“It's very difficult to poll primaries in battleground states, open primaries… That makes it a little bit more difficult to poll.” —Shawna Thomas (32:00)

Electorate Mood:

“People want someone that's fighting for something. They're frustrated with being told the way they're supposed to think.” —Peter Alexander (43:53)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |------------|---------| | 03:05 | Jen Psaki outlines Trump’s mixed performance in primary endorsements and highlights South Carolina and Wisconsin developments. | | 07:45 | Peter Alexander explains the meaning behind Trump’s weak endorsement returns in South Carolina. | | 09:29 | Shawna Thomas analyzes the Democratic outsider surge and shifting attitudes about establishment and age. | | 13:23 | Liz Smith breaks down why data centers are central in Wisconsin and how Francesca Hong leverages this issue. | | 17:50 | Eugene Daniels on the “fight” narrative and why it’s resonating across both parties. | | 21:03 | Liz Smith gives advice for candidates with controversial social media histories. | | 28:44 | Will McDuffie reports from Hong campaign HQ with voter sentiment and ground game insights. | | 32:00 | Shawna Thomas on why polling is unreliable in these open battleground primaries. | | 41:22 | Live update showing Crowley's lead over Hong, contrary to polls. | | 43:53 | Peter Alexander connects current voter frustration to broader anti-establishment trends. |

The Panel’s Closing Reflections

Tight Races, Big Stakes: Wisconsin gubernatorial primary is a nail-biter, with early vote complexities and the unpredictability of outsider campaigns.
Turnout to Watch: August primaries have unique turnout dynamics; “do not underestimate the voter” who participates at this stage. (44:57, Shawna Thomas)
Issues Beyond Ideology: Local issues like data centers break through partisanship and may define general election battles.
Broader Significance: The episode frames 2026 primaries as a referendum on both party power brokers and the ability of outsiders to channel voter frustration and deliver change.

Flow & Tone

Throughout, the discussion is lively, analytical, and grounded in both big-picture electoral dynamics and the human narratives of candidates and voters. The mood is urgent, with a sense of suspense and historical moment as results come in and political orthodoxies are tested.

This summary compiles all key political insights, live news moments, quotes, and observations from the episode, structured for clarity and reference by anyone who missed the live broadcast.

Loading summary

Transcript83 lines

[00:00]
A
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You know that thing where you get an amazing pair of shoes at a really great price and want to tell everyone about it?
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C
Yeah.
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B
So do we here at Designer Shoe Warehouse. We'll give you something to brag about, like the latest styles from brands you love or the trends everyone's obsessing over or shoes that make you feel like, well, you. So go ahead, show off a little. Find shoes that get you and prices that get your budget. Head to your DSW store or dsw.com today. DSW. Let us surprise you. It is primary night in six states across the country and polls are now officially closed in Wisconsin and Minnesota, where some of tonight's marquee races are happening. We've got Ali Velshi, of course, standing by at the big board wearing his special vest as we have all come to love. And he's gonna bring us the latest results as they come in as well. We'll keep you very updated on those as we get any results. I've also got some of my favorite people to talk politics with here at the table. This is quite a group. They've probably been through, I don't know, approximately 100 elections or more as a collective group. They know a lot of things. They've been watching all of this very closely. And there are a ton of interesting races and dynamics to keep an eye on tonight, including some that will test and maybe even confirm, I mean, some of the big political trends that we have seen play out this year to date. So here are just a few and there are a lot of things to watch tonight. But here are a few of the things that I'm watching tonight. First, there is the power of Donald Trump's endorsement inside his own party. His record of success within his party has been mixed at best this year. He has won some of the races, the primary races his candidates have won where he has endorsed. And more recently, he has lost some of the primary races where he has endorsed. Just five days ago, we watched Trump backed Congressman Andy Ogles lose his primary in Tennessee. Two days before that, Trump suffered an even more embarrassing loss in Michigan when his chosen candidate lost to an opponent who had already dropped out of the race. And no matter what he says about the midterms, and he says a lot of things, you know, he cares about the perception of his own power here. And that's an interesting thing to watch. Now, in South Carolina, Trump threw his weight behind Darlene Graham, the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham. But Trump's endorsement didn't exactly clear the field there, not at all. A recent Emerson College poll even found that 53% of South Carolina Republican primary voters said Trump's endorsement has no impact on how they would vote. And remember, this is a very red state, one that has very much voted for Donald Trump in every time he has run for President Trump. As of this hour, we can report that Darlene Graham will not win enough votes to clinch the nomination tonight. She wasn't expected to coming in tonight, to be fair, but she will advance to a runoff against Congressman Ralph Norman. But again, with the full backing of Donald Trump, Darlene Graham is barely cracking 30%. So the success of Trump endorsed candidates is definitely something to keep an eye on tonight. There are others to watch there, too. Now on the Democratic side tonight, it's also a test of whether or not voters will once again reject establishment backed candidates in favor of insurgents, in favor of people who don't feel like traditional politicians, who don't feel like they come from Washington in some cases. In Wisconsin, state Assembly member and Democratic socialist Francesca Hong may be poised to become the Democratic nominee for governor. And this is an interesting story because she has unexpectedly risen to the top of a field, and that included the state's current and former lieutenant governor, who were both forced to exit the race amid lagging poll numbers and campaign issues. Wisconsin's Democratic governor and much of the party's establishment have rallied around Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who, and this is another bizarre twist in this race, left the race last month and then reentered the race just over a week later at the urging of some in the party establishment. Now, keep in mind as we're watching this, people in Wisconsin have been casting early votes and voting by mail through the month of July. And many people did participate in that already. So whoever wins that race is likely to face off against Wisconsin Republican Congressman and election denier Tom Tiffany, who is seeking his party's nomination for governor. And what a guy. Lots to be said. But for those of you just getting to know him, Tom Tiffany was one of 147 members of Congress to vote against certifying the 2020 but honestly, as we look at the results tonight and who's running his election, denialism looks kind of like child's play when you look across the border at neighboring Minnesota, where tonight conspiracy theorist and failed pillow salesman Mike Lindell, yes, that guy is still kicking around. Is running with Trump's endorsement to be his party's nominee for Minnesota governor. If he wins tonight, he will likely have to face off against the state's very popular senator, Amy Klobuchar, who is seeking her party's nomination for governor. So the potential rise of election deniers is certainly also something we're going to be watching tonight. I'll also be keeping an eye on the Democratic primary for Senate in Minnesota, where we are watching yet another contest between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party. Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is running with the support of progressive lawmakers like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, as well as the state's outgoing senator, Tina Smith. And she, of course, is facing off against Congresswoman Angie Craig, who has the backing of Democratic leaders like Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi and Pete Buttigieg. So like I said, there is a whole lot to follow tonight, all of which could tell us a lot about what kind of candidates and what message is appealing to voters and what to expect this November. And on that front, we also got some big news tonight from the world of elections forecasting. It's quite the time for elections forecasting. We're going to be watching all of it. Polling guru Nate Silver just released his forecast for November's midterm election. His models put Democrats chances of retaking the house at 87%. And even more notably, those same models put Democrats chances of retaking the Senate at 57%. What matters is what happens on election Day. But still interesting data as we look to the next few months. With all that in mind, let's dig into tonight's results. Joining me now here at the table, Emma is now chief national reporter and host of the excellent news show that launched this week, still state of play, Peter Alexander, msnow chief Washington correspondent and co host of the weekend, Eugene Daniels, msnow political director Shawna Thomas. And also joining the fun, tonight's Democratic strategist and senior advisor to majority Democrats and the bench, Liz Smith. Liz, you wish you were at our fun table with us, but we are so happy you are still here with us. Let me start with you, Peter. First of all, welcome.
[07:04]
A
Thank you for having me.
[07:05]
B
You are here.
[07:06]
A
I'm used to doing this in the briefing room, but now we get to do it on one team.
[07:08]
D
That's right.
[07:09]
B
That's right. You can grill me if you want. It's fine. I want to ask you about South Carolina because Trump has endorsed a number of candidates through the course of the primary season. Some, as I mentioned, he has won, he has spent. There's been money spent that I think some of the Republican Party would prefer he not spend, but that's a different story. He decided to weigh in in this race for Darlene Graham, presumably because of his relationship with Lindsey Graham. She cracked 30%, barely. You need 50% to not have a runoff. I don't want to overread into it or under read into it. What do you make of it?
[07:45]
A
Well, we got a long way to go to the general for the president to pick at his candidate to win this thing. There are a lot of other votes out there. Almost 7 in 10 of the other votes among Republicans in that state went to someone who Donald Trump did not endorse. That's saying something at this point right now. I mean, let's focus on the Graham name in that state. Obviously, it's as resonant as any that there is there. But just a reminder about Lindsey Graham himself. Take a step back. I remember traveling with Jeb Bush. We were in South Carolina during that 2016 campaign. Lindsey Graham was on the campaign bus and he was fuming about this guy named Donald Trump. Boy, did times change quickly. And then after January 6th, Lindsey Graham came around again. And Lindsey Graham said, you know, I've had enough of it. I'm done. I'm off. Of course he came around and supported Donald Trump when he won once again in 2024. So obviously, as it relates to loyalty, the Graham name gets a whole lot because they have come back to Donald Trump over and over. The question is, as noted by the polls that you said there, do the folks in that state care? Mark Sanford, and we know all the controversies about him. His name has still got plenty of votes so far in this early primary. The bottom line is the expectation is whoever wins that Republican primary, though, and then wins the, you know, wins the runoff that comes is going to be the likely Senate, the person that serves in that seat for the next six years.
[09:02]
B
The seven in 10 who did not get votes is an interesting thing because uniting after a primary, the general election electorate is a whole different story. Shona, let me ask you, you've been digging into all of the nitty gritties of these races. We were just talking about a primary happening up in Connecticut before we came out here, which you wouldn't think we'd
[09:19]
E
care about which you wouldn't think. No offense to Connecticut.
[09:22]
B
No, no, no. It's all interesting to watch. We're political nerds here. What are you as you're looking at these six states in these races, what are you most watching tonight?
[09:30]
E
I think what I'm watching and I'm actually going to go back to that Connecticut race. It hasn't been called yet. It's Connecticut one. It is long term incumbent John Larson, Representative John Larson running against, I believe the mayor of Hartford, former mayor of Hartford, former mayor of Hartford. And right now it looks like the former mayor of Hartford is up. Not all the votes are in, we understand. But I keep coming back. We keep having this conversation about progressivism versus moderate Democrats and these internal primary fights. And I'm starting to wonder if really the story that we are seeing is about establishment and age to a certain extent versus the outsider candidates. And I think in that race, if the mayor, the former mayor is able to pull it out, I think that plays into what we saw, let's say in Colorado where Diana DeGette lost to a young now that was a progressive movement person, but a young person. And I think we are also seeing that play out in states like Iowa, Michigan. We may see this play out in Wisconsin. But people seem to be, at least in these Democratic primaries, seem to be wanting the person who isn't the person from Washington, D.C. who isn't the person who has been in office for a long time and wants to continue to have that power. But a lot of the people out there think they have nothing to show for that power when it comes to their own lives. So I am wondering, well, you see one a coalescing around someone like Francesca Hong who is running for governor or who's running for the Democratic in the Democratic primary for governor and see the Democratic Party try to coalesce around her if she were to pull it out. Because there's an energy that is happening when it comes to not being the establishment. And in Iowa, as I mentioned, there is this situation where you have two interesting Democrats running for senator and for governor there. And they're not necessarily progressives. They seem to both be moderates. They seem to both be running the race. They are supposed to be running in Iowa. But neither of them is necessarily totally aligned with the Democratic Party. Neither of them is running as though they are part of the establishment. They are running against the establishment. And I think that's the thing we're gonna see and we're gonna see does that energy carry you to the general, which is when this all starts to matter?
[11:55]
B
It is, really. And I wanna bring Liz Smith into this conversation. Cause Liz and I grew up in Democratic. Still young, of course, but we grew up in Democratic politics together. And I think we both remember, well, when party leadership really selected the nominees. Now, you would never say it that way exactly, but they would.
[12:14]
E
But you can now.
[12:15]
B
Now we can. We're free. You know, they really did because they would put money behind it. They would endorse. And now it looks very much like party leaders are not picking the nominees. In fact, party leaders pushing nominees is. It's a negative in many of these races. But I want to ask you about Wisconsin in that regard, because you brought up Francesca Hong. I think this is one of a really interesting primary race. I think most people would not have bet that she would be the nominee just a couple of months ago. I mean, there was the sitting lieutenant governor, the former lieutenant governor, both who were relative pretty popular in the state, relatively so among the Democratic Party. Both of them had to drop out of the race. The establishment had to kind of encourage Crowley to get back in the race. There's a lot happening here, I would say. But I want to ask you just what you think Democrats, party activists, party workers, should take away from Francesca Hong. Kind of rising in this race. The general election is a whole other question. But I want to ask you about how we got here.
[13:23]
D
Yeah. So let's put aside her tweets and past statements about Thanksgiving and defunding the police. She's actually shown herself to have some really good political instincts that allowed her to tap into what Wisconsin voters care about. And the issue that she tapped into very smartly was data centers. Wisconsin really is one of the ground zeros across the country for the data center debate. All across the state, communities are up in arms about what they see as an intrusion of data centers on their water and air and quality of life and land. And this is not a partisan issue. It is an issue where 76% of people in Wisconsin feel like the deck is a little bit too stacked toward the data centers, including 67% of Republicans. And that tells me that she has found a message that, yes, worked really well in a Democratic primary, but could be really, really salient in a general election. And keep in mind, Jen, you talked about how we had a long history in Democratic politics. So I'm going to do just a short history of Wisconsin politics. In 2018, Scott Walker lost in the squeaker of an election, and the deciding Thing was his decision to give out a massive, massive set of tax breaks to a foreign corporation called Foxcon that came in, took billions of dollars, promised to create 13,000 jobs, and didn't deliver on it. The data center debate is very reminiscent of it. And it shows that, yes, even though Francesca Hong is on the far left of the Democratic Party, that she's tapped into an issue that could motivate Democrats, motivate independents, and get MAGA Republicans even on her side. And I think that's something that we sometimes don't think about in national politics. We focus on the tweets and all that. But there are some really important local dynamics there that she has been very astute in playing off of.
[15:34]
B
That's such an interesting. I mean, sometimes we don't talk enough about the issues that are local that really determine. I mean, Iowa cancer is a huge issue. And the rise of cancer, it has one of the highest rising rates in the country. And on data centers, Tom Tiffany, who is likely to be the person who is running against Francesca Hong if she wins this nomination, has even said. I think he said that he. He's against tax breaks. My point is, he said a little bit on data data centers because they're so unpopular that there's like bipartisan opposition to them. Okay, Eugene, I wanna bring you into this. We've talked about. We've jumped around a bit because I think there are a lot of things to pull from tonight. There always are. But what are you watching for? What do you think is most interesting?
[16:16]
F
To me, it continues to be about fighting. Right. Like, I think the thing, especially on the Democratic side and the Republican side, what we're seeing from voters is they're looking for people who are going to fight, whether that means fight with the establishment here in D.C. fight with the establishment within their own states, fight with the Republicans in November. That is something that, when I was on the ground, in all the places that we've all been talking to folks on the ground, that is what voters are looking for. And if Francesca Hong is able to pull it off, I think it's still gonna be tough. The polling has been difficult. And the polling has been difficult because for Francesca Hong, for Abdul El Sayed, they are trying to create a different coalition than usually comes out. Right. And so that's why polling is sometimes in these moments, kind of unpredictable. You have usually Michigan, for example, because that's what we have. You have black voters that are always going to come out. You have some of the moderates who are always going to come out what they were anticipating in the polling was all these young voters who are the Abdul El Sayed parties at the rallies. That's the same thing that we're seeing with Francesca Hong. If that holds, it's still going to be the same thing. Fighters, who are the people who are going to Washington D.C. who are the people who are going to be running my state, who are going to fight. And I think there's been this conversation about, oh no, the DSA is Democratic, Socialists are taking over the Democratic Party. I don't think that's the case. I think you're seeing some people who are probably a little bit more moderate around the country also winning. But that's because they sound like they are ready to fight. I think what people are sick of is people who sound like a moderate, people who seem like they're going to go along. They get them.
[17:50]
A
I was going to say to the point that Eugene is making, I think the gist was that these people are dissatisfied. These Democrats are dissatisfied just with a anti Trump message. They want a pro something message. They want someone who is fighting for something, not just I'm going to take on Donald Trump. And that's a message that's resonated. Another takeaway to Eugene's point though that we're also seeing here that we should acknowledge is Marquette Law School does a lot of the polling as it relates. I know we have opinions on polling, but broadly in terms of trends, it can help you out. And over the last 15 years, there has been a significant a doubling of the number of people in the state of Wisconsin who now identify as very liberal. And that's moving much faster than the number of people who identify as very conservative. So, Tom, Tiffany, you got a House Freedom Caucus guy here, right. So that's gonna be a little interesting, conceivably against a Democratic socialist. But the democratic energy is moving further and further to the left right now because they are the ones who are saying we wanna fight for something in particular. And I think that's resonant.
[18:44]
F
And Jim. And you only have an insurgency, it only is able to flourish if the moderates of the establishment has not done their job. If people are discontent with their behavior, if people are discontent with the work that they've done, whether it be at the State House or here in Washington D.C. if they're discontent with their job.
[19:00]
B
Yeah, go ahead, Shawna.
[19:01]
E
Well, and I think, Eugene, you went to the DSA convention, you went with Hunter Woodall, our researcher. And one thing from Yalls reporting that really stood out to me was the discontent with the Democrats in that case, because Trump won again.
[19:15]
F
Right.
[19:15]
E
And that is that same like, okay, what are you. What. What does it mean for you to fight for me if Trump won again?
[19:21]
B
That.
[19:21]
E
That's where some of that anger is
[19:23]
B
like, we need something different.
[19:24]
E
We need something different. And I don't think that that particular. Just because that was Democratic socialists talking to you, talking to Hunter. Okay, yes. That's part of the progressive argument. But I think you see that anger with Democrats in general in a lot of these places. So what are you going to do for me now? You haven't done anything before. Maybe I should choose something else.
[19:44]
B
I want to bring Liz back in here because a part of this we now move. We're going to move by tomorrow to the general election. And that is the key part of this that will determine who wins seats, who's up against who. And we've seen with some of these candidates that have been really exciting people. They've been saying, you know, we're a part of a movement. We're in this movement together. We're inviting people into a movement versus I'm electable. Which is a message you've heard from a lot of these candidates who are losing. But they also have. I'm gonna say it's kind of the millennial candidate problem is they have, you know, Twitter histories, they have YouTube histories, they've done hundreds of podcasts. You referenced earlier before. I mean, Francesca Hong, she's got a lot of things going for her. She's created this movement in the state. Trump is very unpopular. But she also has a number of past statements that are not gonna sit well, probably with people who are independent voters, more moderate voters, or they're gonna have. She's gonna have to answer for them. I'll say it that way. You've advised lots of people through lots of things. What should I mean? El saleed. I'm gonna say he is also. Dr. El said he's been having the same challenge. Right. Which is having to answer for past posts and statements. As much as they are exciting movements, what should they be doing in this moment? Are they doing the right thing? Should they be doing something else? What do you think?
[21:04]
D
Well, I think a great example of someone who handled this very, very well was Zoran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race. A lot of people would have thought that no one who had ever embraced defund the police would win a citywide election in New York City, but he was able to. And how? Because he came out Right away when he was asked about it and said, that is not my position. I will not defund the police. Not only that, I'll keep the headcount at the NYPD stable. And then when they found all comments of his criticizing nypd, he went and he apologized directly to nypd and he apologized on Fox News. And I think just be normal about it. Don't go around, you know, laughing about it, saying, oh, you know, woke one was crazy. Just own up to past mistakes. A lot of people make past mistakes and move beyond it. Because if this race is all about Francesca Hong's tweets, that's not great terrain for her. But if she can disavow those old tweets and make it about Tom Tiffany's record being an extremist on, you know, an election denier on abortion, someone who has supported Trump's Iran war, that has raised prices across the board, that's a fight that she can win. But if it's all about her old tweets, it's not. And I think, again, not everyone, Francesca Hong, nor Abdul El Sayed has the communication skills that someone like Zoran Mandani does. But they would be smart to look to his example and how he handled these during his mayoral race.
[22:37]
B
Okay, everyone stay where you are. We have to take a break. We know how this goes. We can share with you that Tom Tiffany will be the nominee in the state of Wisconsin. So we do know that from our results. There you go. You can see the results on the screen. Not exactly a close race there, but he will be the nominee. Ali Velshi is standing by at the big board. He's going to tell us where things stand when we come back.
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[24:51]
B
Okay, we're starting to get the first results out of Wisconsin where a ton is on the line for tonight's primaries, especially in that Democratic primary for governor. We've talked about it a little bit, but Ally Vilshi's at the big board to break everything down for us. Ali, what are we seeing right now?
[25:06]
C
Well, I want to just start in Minnesota for a moment because we have. The Associated Press has just projected that Amy Klobuchar will be the Democratic candidate for governor. This is not a surprise. Interesting to see that zero percent in. There's just some advance vote in a few places. But this was never really that much of a contest. There are seven candidates in total. So Amy Klobuchar is there. Let's go over to Wisconsin and take a look at what's going on there. We also mentioned Tom Tiffany is the, a Republican nominee for governor. But let's go with the Democratic governor's race there with 9% in, David Crowley is in the lead right now. Francesca Hong is in second place, about four and a half thousand votes separating them. Francesca Hong is only at the moment winning in two counties right now. La Crosse county in western Wisconsin and down here in Kenosha county, which is Kenosha. She's leading there. We do not yet have numbers in from Milwaukee County. Milwaukee. We do have numbers in from Dane county where she's from. Very, very close. It's within 90 votes in Dane County. Now let's take a look at the, at the, the Senate race in. Hang on a second. Let's look at the, the governor's. I'm sorry, I'm in the wrong place here. Let's take a look. Let's go back one more time. Let's go to Wisconsin. Okay, let's look at the Senate race in Wisconsin. The governor's race in Wisconsin. This is the one that you were just talking about. We are, we're looking at these, these numbers coming in. It's only 13% in. But this is not what we or what polls have been telling us that we're expected to see a gain of 4,000 points for David Crowley. David Crowley was in the race then he was out of the race. Then he was back in the race after so many people dropped out in favor of Francesca Hong, who was polling very strongly. You were just talking about that. So we're watching that very closely. And then I want to look at the Minnesota Senate race for just a moment and tell you what's going on over there. Again, zero percent in. So we're in no position to make any predictions about what's going to happen. Peggy Flanagan has a small lead of about 300 votes in Minnesota. But let me show you how this is coming in in sort of population centers. In Alexandria, for instance, Angie Craig has a small lead again, just 40 votes there in a little bit south of that, 58% for Angie Craig. Angie Craig also winning in Washington County, 49. But again, look at that, a lead of one vote. Take a look at where we haven't got vote from. We've not got vote from. We don't have vote from Hennepin county, which is the most populous part of the state, but we do have votes in from Ramsey County. That's St. Paul. And Peggy Flanagan has got 54% of the vote. But again, this is just 73 votes. So this is going to populate over the course of the next hour or so. I'll stay very close to you to tell you what's going on on the Republican race. By the way, Michelle Tafoya is in the lead right now. When I spoke to Peggy Flanagan and Angie Craig last night, they expected that they'll be facing off against Michelle Tavoya, but that hasn't been decided yet. And in the Republican governor race, worth noting, Mike Lindell, the foam pillow guy, is in third place right now with 18% of the vote. Lisa DeMuth is in the lead again, very small numbers, 117 votes there. Jen.
[28:07]
B
Ali Velshi, thank you. It's early, but it's interesting. This is why we have to kind of keep our eyes open and be open to where the results are, what they're telling us on election nights. We're going to be checking back in with you very shortly. Thank you. As always. Peter, Eugene and Sean are all back with me and joining us from Francesca Hong's campaign headquarters in Madison, Wisconsin. Is Ms. Now reporter Will McDuffie will tell us. You know, it is early. The reporting is very early. The numbers are coming in. We're very early stages here. We're only 30 minutes since the polls closed, but it's closer, I think, than many people expected. What is the mood there at the Han campaign?
[28:45]
H
Well, Jen, I'll be honest. We've been here since Friday morning and it hasn't felt like a 20 point lead for Hong, which is what a poll on Friday said. We've just met so many Democratic voters who are worried about her electability in November, and that includes people who identify as progressives, people who like her policies. They just don't think this is the race to push that kind of platform. They don't think it's going to work. They're smart. They've lived in Wisconsin. They know how close these races are. And at the same time, though, I mean, it's important to note that Hong has built this remarkable campaign. I mean, she came out of nowhere. No one knew who she was when she entered this race a year ago. She was a chef in Madison. She had a very popular ramen restaurant. She's been a state assembly woman. And as you guys have noted, she's a democratic socialist. But she's been able to really build a groundswell of support that's gone beyond just the young progressive base. I mean, we were in Sheboygan with her on Saturday night and she held a town hall and we met three couples over the age of 60 who had been turned onto her by either their grandkids or their children. So they've been able to build that movement beyond just the base. And one thing that Liz said earlier in this hour is spot on. She hammers the data center issue and she got in on that early. And in fact, she told reporters this morning that the first thing she's going to do if she wins this race in November on day one is to call a special session of the legislature to try to impose a moratorium on new data center development.
[30:19]
B
Yeah, it's such an interesting we've seen obviously, the rise of data centers as an issue, but this is a race where I feel like it's so present in what people are talking about, what she's talking about. Let me ask, as you've been talking to voters over the last couple of days, did they know who Crowley is? Are they excited about him or it's more for the people who told you they weren't voting for Hong. They were worried about vulnerability. She had. What are you hearing from people in that regard,
[30:47]
H
I'd say it's a little more anti Hong and they realize that Crowley is probably the best moderate establishment option. I mean, he's endorsed by the governor here, Tony Evers, but his campaign has been like a total odyssey. I mean, he dropped out a month ago. He had a planned vacation to Jamaica that he had to cancel to get back in the race. And a couple voters have told me they don't like the looks of that. They don't understand. If he's such a fighter and is worthy of being governor, why didn't he stay in this thing and fight it out the whole time?
[31:18]
B
Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, also, people were early voting in Wisconsin and voting by mail, and I'm so interested in that factor. Will McDuffie, thank you so much for all of your reporting on the ground. We'll keep checking in with you too, throughout the evening as well. All right, I want to come back to the table here. So let's start with you, Shauna. I mean, we polling is imperfect, right? Sometimes you assume, and we saw this in Michigan last week as well. There were polls showing El Said who still won the primary up by 10, 15, 20 points. And you start to see many of those. And then you start to assume this is where it is headed. What do you make of the dynamics of what we're seeing? Again, it's early, but so far with
[32:00]
E
these numbers, I mean, I think one, I think it's very difficult to pull primaries in battleground states, open primaries, which Michigan and Wisconsin, which means if you're an independent, you can go vote in whichever one you want. If you're a Republican, you can go vote in the Democratic primary. If you're a Democrat, you can go vote in the Republican primary. You gotta choose one, but you can do that. I think that makes it a little bit more difficult to pull. And one thing is I was reading Nate Silver's what you mentioned earlier today is his forecast is going for instead of just likely voters, registered voters, I believe. And so that is a larger group. And if people like Abdul El Sayed, if people like Francesca Hong even in the primary, are able to get some of those slightly more low propensity voters to actually show up in a primary, that can kind of skew the polling a little bit as well. So I think in both of those states, as we saw in the 2024 election, as we've seen in other elections, they're battleground states. These are 50, 50 states people are trying to figure out who's gonna win come November. And I think any of these polls that you see that are way, way, way in one direction or another, you have to keep coming back to the idea that Michigan, for example, 2024, Trump won 2024, the Democratic senator won as well. These are these states. And really on a day like today, what I like to say is voters are voting. We have to just let them vote at a certain point.
[33:28]
A
I was going to say one of the takeaways. This is a conversation. It's nice to watch as the numbers come in. This is going to be close. We'll likely be up late or we'll wake up in the morning and watch Day to Play and find out what happens here.
[33:37]
B
But hopefully we'll be up before that.
[33:39]
E
But watch for what you said.
[33:40]
A
But what I would say is this just a reminder to folks at home, excuse me, because so much of the conversation is about the intra party fighting between the progressives and the moderates. I was speaking to the former Democratic state party chair in Wisconsin today, Ben Wickler, who said very clearly to me, said, peter, this is a 48, 48 state, not even a 50, 50 state. You got 48% vote for Democrats in the general, 48% are going to vote for Republicans. And then the remaining folks in the middle, that's what's going to decide this thing. And that's what happens over and over again. 2.6 million Wisconsinites voted in each of the last two elections. In 2020. Not in the general election, voted, I should say, in 2022 and in 2018. In 2022, the Democrat Tony Evers won by 90,000 votes. Four years earlier, he won by 30,000 votes out of 2.6 million. This thing is close. So we can talk about it all we want and all the divisions and what have you. At the end of the day, the belief is that everyone sort of coalesces. So it really comes down to that little core number of Wisconsin folks who make these decisions.
[34:38]
E
But I also think the data centers issue, I have heard Liz brought it up. We know that Francesca Hong has made a big deal of it. I have heard multiple Democratic groups, multiple campaigns behind the scenes say this issue allows me to talk to Republicans and independents. Now, that doesn't mean they expect the Republicans to come vote for them in November. It doesn't mean that those independents are gonna vote for them in November. But it does mean they've found something that allows people to get a little past their partisan divide and have a conversation about what do these Data centers mean for the area of town that I live in. And in Texas, there was this headline last week. Greg Abbott, the governor, the very long term Republican and well liked governor in Texas, put a moratorium on data centers in Texas. And I looked at that and I said, he knows he has a problem.
[35:28]
B
Yeah.
[35:28]
E
That doesn't mean he's going to lose. But it means they are seeing something. This is how I analyze it. They are seeing something in their numbers that says, one, this issue resonates. Two, I gotta do something. And I have the ability to do something because I am the sitting governor.
[35:43]
B
I mean, Francesca Hong and Steve Bannon are talking about data centers. Eugene, one last thought before we go to commercial break.
[35:50]
F
I think what's so interesting, we're looking at the numbers. Francesca Hong, a Democratic socialist should not in normal times have a chance, Right? Like this idea that the party's been taken over by Democratic socialists. Not true. But what it does show is that democratic socialism is not as scary as it used to be. People are so desperate, voters, normal humans are so desperate for change in their lives. They're looking at capitalism and they're saying sometimes, you know, that hasn't really worked, especially for young voters and young people. And so I think the, the voters are not just telling us who they want to be in office, they're also telling us the kind of things they want them to work on, whether it's data centers or other things. But they're also saying you have to go up there and shake the table. And if folks aren't doing that, if folks aren't actually listening to their voters, they're gonna kick them out. Right. That's how you end up with someone named Donald Trump after he just had Joe Biden.
[36:38]
A
To be clear, this is all a function of the Donald Trump era. That's what has changed, is the Trump model shifted everything.
[36:44]
B
It's no doubt about it. Yes. Lots more to discuss. I will hold my thoughts. We have to take a very quick break, but this is a very live bot in Wisconsin tonight. We're polling leading up to tonight's show. Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong way, way up in this race. But where the early numbers are, they're showing a very, very close race. We will see. We're going to be tracking it closely. We'll be right back.
[37:11]
G
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[39:03]
B
People at their best get their beauty rest. Well, we have a race on our hands in the marquee race of the night in Wisconsin. Ali Velshi is at the big board, still there, wearing the vest. He's there. We love it. Ali, tell us what's happening for this race for governor. We just talked to you, but I know numbers are coming in. Tell us what's going on right now.
[39:28]
C
Yeah, well, lots come in, actually, since you and I talked. First of all, 43% of the vote is in, so it's coming in at a good clip. David Crowley is in the lead now by 7,000 votes, 42% to 39.6% for Francesca Hong Kong. Now, you've talked about this, but it's worth reminding everybody David Crowley wasn't in the race. He was in the race. He got out of the race and he endorsed this woman, Sarah Rodriguez, who then got out of the race, but she was on the ballot before she got out of the race. So she's got about 10,000 votes. Mandela Barnes, former lieutenant governor, also has about 10,000 votes. So they've got 20,000 votes between them that are not actually counted in this whole thing. The lead, 7,000. Let's look at where these votes are coming from. We don't have votes from a lot of counties. The ones in white we don't have votes for, but we have votes from every populated area in the country in the state. Milwaukee county is 74% in. The lead is 2,000 votes for David Crowley, 46% to 43.5%. Madison, which is where Francesca Hong is from, 44%. So that's on the low end, but she's running at 41 to 38, so not a very big lead in Dane County. In eau Claire County, 72% is in. She's got a good lead there. Francesca Hong's leading 9% against David Crowley. In Wausau, 81% is in. Again, almost look at the lead. It's four votes for Francesca Hong. And in Green Bay, 34% is in. David Crowley is leading there by five points. So this is a tight race. We obviously want to see more vote coming in from Milwaukee, 74% is in there. And Dane County, 44%. This is probably one of the most liberal counties in the entire state. This is the University of Wisconsin, Madison. So lots happening here. It's a tighter race than polls leading up to tonight were indicating. They showed Francesca Hong with such a lead that people like Mandela Barnes got out of the race saying, hey, there's obviously only one candidate. So a guy who was not fully in the race until recently is now in the lead in Wisconsin by less than two points.
[41:22]
B
All right, Ali Velshi, we're going to continue to check back in with you. The numbers keep coming in. This is turning into a real nail biter in Wisconsin. We're going to talk about what it means with the panel when we come back. Okay, I know we've been talking about this, but it's just worth restating that. Most polls headed into election day show Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong with a very safe double digit lead in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary. And she could certainly still win. But as you can see, with a little more than half of the vote in, Francesca Hong is down to the establishment backed candidate, David Crowley, which is, I think, not where most people expected this to sit. With 51% of the vote in, Peter Alexander, Eugene Daniels and Shawna Thomas are all back with me. And I think we're gonna go to Ali Velshi too, and check with him in a moment as well, as he's getting more votes in, first of all, I'm curious and I'm ask Ali, this early vote, what's interesting to me, one of the things is that there was over 100,000 people who voted in July and during early vote and vote by mail, that was a period of time where Crowley was in and out of the. He was in and out of the race. Right. He was out for just over a week and then back in. So we'll see if those have been counted. Maybe they have, maybe they haven't been, but we'll check on that. But what do you think this is saying right now about the electorate? Let me start with you, Eugene.
[42:53]
F
I think part of it is, I think it's more about us in the media that cover these things, is we chase often what is the juiciest story that we can tell? What's the clearest story that we can tell about the election was the clearest story we can tell about this primary instead of sometimes just like letting the voters tell us what it is. What we heard from Will McDuffie on the ground is that like some people, people weren't interested in Francesca Hong to vote for. Just because someone goes to a rally does not mean they're going to vote for that person on Tuesday. Right. It doesn't mean that they are going to actually think that person can be electable. And so we have to do a better job as well. I think we do great here in ms, but like the larger media ecosystem in making sure that when we're telling the stories, we're telling all the exciting part of Francesco, because, oh, out of nowhere. But then maybe that's not the story of tonight.
[43:43]
B
She. And she is exciting and she has been running a grassroots campaign, but sometimes the people who are not the most exciting are what the electorate is looking for. We'll see what happens tonight. What do you think, Peter?
[43:54]
A
I think that the biggest takeaway for me and in the conversations with folks who watch this stuff very closely, is that 2018, the last midterm for Donald Trump, specifically in Wisconsin, was resistance to Trump. 2026, right now is resistance to Trump and resistance to a system that the people feel like has not delivered for them. It's this whole point that we're making about a frustration with the establishment. I witnessed it on the ground when I was in Michigan just a matter of days ago, a frustration that Chuck Schumer was endorsing the more centrist candidate here. There is a sense that people want someone that's fighting for something they're frustrated with being told the way they're supposed to think. And I think that's really honestly what for me is, again, the biggest takeaway, not just for what we're watching tonight, but broadly, certainly across a lot of these states in recent months.
[44:38]
B
I mean, Shauna, you're gonna be just diving into all of this data tomorrow. You're the nerd and the best kind of nerd with your team. What are you gonna be looking when you have time and you're not sitting on here talking to us? What are you gonna be diving into about these? What we've seen so far, the results that we know of. Even if Francesca Hong wins this primary,
[44:57]
E
I think I'm looking at how many people actually in this primary. We are in an August primary. A lot of people are on vacation. They aren't necessarily going to show up for a primary. How many people? And what does that say about energy? That's why I was sort of obsessed with the amount of turnout in Michigan. I've been looking into the turnout that was in the Texas primary. What does that tell us? How many of those people are Democrats versus Republicans? I think one other thing you have to remember is do not underestimate the voter. Someone who decides to show up or even send their ballot in. If they get a mail in ballot or go to early vote in a primary, that means they are paying attention. And that's why I'm interested in what the turnout is.
[45:41]
B
All things to watch. I wish we could keep talking, but Lawrence o' Donnell's gonna do it up for us too. Peter, Eugene, Shawna, thank you so much for being here. Thanks for talking to me. All right, we'll be right back. That does it for me tonight on quite an election night. Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co founder of angie. One thing I've learned is that you
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E
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