Bill Kristol (3:08)

No, it is. I'm trying to remember. It's hard for me to. Of course, it's hard to put myself back in one's mindset. A year ago, a little, it seemed like the whole thing might work for Trump. Right. I mean, I don't mean it. It still is very dangerous, don't get me wrong. But Doge plus everything and sort of

Tim Miller (3:22)

everybody folding the law firms, the universities.

Bill Kristol (3:24)

Yeah, yeah. Just the kind of the authoritarian takeover and the lack of effective resistance early on. The big thing in those first few months. I remember speaking to donors and stuff. Why his numbers never go down. His poll numbers are immovable. He's got a mystical, magical hold over the American public. It doesn't feel that way now.

Tim Miller (3:42)

Nope. We're going to get to the poll numbers and the politics. Just want to start a little bit with some of the news from the weekend. So the Iranians offered a proposal to the president as part of our I liked the commenter that recommended decrease fire. Me and Nick Kristof were trying to decide how to describe what is happening right now. And he said slow fire, which is good. But decrease fire has a better ring to it. So that's what we're going to go with their proposal, it would be a one month deadline to end the decreased fire and permanently end the war. And the deal would leave its nuclear capabilities unresolved. They have 14 point plan. It would require both sides to lift their blockades on the strait, end the war in Lebanon, release or hunt frozen assets. They also want us to pay them some cash and lift sanctions. The Trump reply to that over his social media account because that's how things are in our banana republic now. The president replies to foreign countries on his own social media platform. Can't imagine that it would be acceptable and that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to humanity and the world over the last 47 years. In the meantime, they've announced Project Freedom, subtly named Project Freedom. Who are we freeing in Project Freedom? You might wonder? Is it the Iranian people? Are we protecting Our own freedom. No, Project Freedom is to free some ships from the Strait of Hormones. We're going to put 15,000 troops and 100 aircraft in harm's way to potentially free stranded ships in the waterway. Iran says that they hit a US ship in reaction to that this morning. The US denies that that happened. So there you go. It doesn't seem like a lot of progress has been made. Bill, what do you think of the state apply?

Bill Kristol (5:24)

Yeah. No, it all seems like such talk and some phony military action, which is better probably than real military action. And I still kind of think it's all jostling and whatever to get Trump to the withdrawal he wants. I guess, I don't know. But on the other hand, I don't know. I talked to someone last night who allegedly follows these things and thinks, oh, Trump's really going to hit them one more time in a big way. And I don't know. Yeah, when you look at that Trump tweet, I mean it's sort of like, you know, it's typical. Right. A little bit of it's bellicose. But then there's a lot of. Isn't there some talk about we're really getting along well with the Iranians these days And I kind of think the deal is gettable here. I mean.

Tim Miller (6:01)

Yeah, I mean he likes to keep optionality for himself. The longer it goes on though, even supporters have got to be like, prices are going up, the street is still closed. What are we doing? It is hard to even spin what end he's trying to achieve. The spin that he was giving people as it's out is that the blockade was going to cripple and tank the Iranian economy. And so that would make them cry uncle. That's a pretty hard sell right now. And it doesn't even seem like they are pushing that cell anymore now with Project Freedom.

Bill Kristol (6:36)

Yeah, that is the one cell they have, I guess. And cry uncle for what? I suppose for reopening the Strait. But I mean, I think that could be done. But then, you know, how do you know they won't close it again? They made their point on the straight and that can't be unseen, you know. And then the other thing is the nuclear thing, I'd say the people I've talked to, and I haven't talked to that many, but I was some event this weekend where there were some sort of not really Trumpists, but people who wanted.

Tim Miller (6:58)

It was a secret neocon event.

Bill Kristol (7:00)

No, it wasn't neocon. It was just a social thing here. If only it was in McLean.

Tim Miller (7:05)

It was in McLean. So there were some military contractors there.

Bill Kristol (7:08)

We need to get those things going again, the secret, you know, neocon events. But anyway, the, this is more your basic social event in Northern Virginia. And there were some people there were, you know, sort of wanted to hope that there was a reasonable plan here. And I suppose he's tightening the screws and it's going to get the nuclear material out and make us safer because really the nuclear program really won't be able to be started again. It could be started again. I think nuclear program is in pretty bad shape. Their missile program's in pretty bad shape or in any way, we've pummeled them for a month of bombing and I don't know how much worse shape we're going to get it into. So I think that's a kind of wishful thinking on people who don't want to tell themselves. What I think is, I think you're absolutely right. What is increasingly the real truth, which is what are we doing now? I mean, whatever its original rationale and whatever damage was done to Iran, which maybe is a good thing in terms of, you know, limiting their, their military capabilities and stuff like that, you know, in the first week or two or three, what are we doing now? And, and conversely, and this is the point I'm struck by every defender, semi defender of the war I talk to, the whole thing is defended and there's never a mention of the Strait of Four ruse. I mean, it's as if we're not paying a real price for this. And every day that's is better for Iran than for us. Yes, they have some, you know, they lose a little bit of income from not being able to export oil that it builds up there. And there's all this talk about how it's eventually going to become unmanageable for them. I'm pretty dubious about that. But the actual world economy is heading towards what most people who study these things seem to be saying is kind of real dangers ahead. And already gas is whatever it is, right? And other prices, fertilizers, whatever it is and that stuff, each day it adds up. You know, I feel like energy experts.

Tim Miller (8:44)

I'm talking to the gas Buddy today on YouTube so people can go check that out later, but are saying that we're really potentially going to a tipping point at some point, whether that's at the end of this month or after, where you get kind of exponential increases in prices because of shortages and Adam Smith Supply and demand. The only thing that runs Counter to I think both of our view, which is like Trump wants an off ramp and he's looking for some face saving off ramp is there's a story over the weekend about how much he's talking to Mark Thiessen, who is this Washington Post columnist and kind of C list Fox pundit who has been the biggest cheerleader for the Iran war. He simultaneously, the article about him was weird. It was kind of Thiessen was kind of taking credit for Trump siding with Ukraine more than he would have otherwise. I don't know you've done that great of a job if that's the mark of your influence. But anyway, you know, and Thiessen, apparently he's talking to Trump a lot and just posted that, you know, he, that he believes Trump's going to go finish the job. So, you know, if that is true, that that is who Trump is listening to and there is no real like rationale for the status quo, you know, then you need to create a new story. I mean that's what Trump does, right? It's, it's tabloid guys got to have a new episode, a new season of the Apprentice. And so, and that's the argument for them continuing to escalate it. But eventually there has to be something because the status quo is a nightmare, right. And it makes him look very limp. And maybe he doesn't care.

Bill Kristol (10:18)

He may not care about the polls as much as he once did since he for various reasons. But some of the other Republicans care, I don't know.

Tim Miller (10:27)

And there's no good argument, the gas prices thing. And you just watch the senators over the weekend. John Cornyn, who's up for this election in Texas, posts on Twitter. 369 a gallon in Austin this morning, exclamation point. I don't think this is going to work for people. Like, it's not as bad as they're saying, only 369. You know, you had Tim Scott was out there saying that the gas prices are going down. You had Rick Scott out there saying, well, this is just a needed sacrifice that the American people need to make, you know, for our long term safety and because of the importance of changing the regime in Iran. But we're not trying to change the regime in Iran anymore. You know, he's not giving them any thing to work with.

Bill Kristol (11:08)

Yeah, I agree. And also, don't you think, I mean politically these things sink in at some point that it's failing and then it just is harder to turn that around, you know, without a dramatic. And maybe that's a reason for it to do something dramatic. But man, that is risky. Are we really. He's gonna. The bombing wouldn't be that risky. I suppose a kind of 48 hour. You really gotta show them, make them pay a price for 47 years. Maybe they'd be okay support for that here. Anything with ground troops at this point, having it went away weirdly after two weeks. If you'd said, okay, the next step's ground troops. This is our. It's all of a. In a plan now it's so ob and flailing for a month and then we're going to put in ground troops. I just feel like that's kind of undoable. But you know, I guess he could do it. He could order it and hegseth would make sure it happened. I guess the military would go along. But man, that is. And that would be. And also what. What Iran does at that point. I mean they have not hit energy sites right in the region and done much damage in the last month. There has been a ceasefire really in that respect. But they made clear they could.

Tim Miller (12:05)

Right.

Bill Kristol (12:05)

Why wouldn't they do that again? If Trump starts off even with a big bombing, I just feel that's one thing that's holding Trump back. Even he know that that really capsizes

Tim Miller (12:13)

the economy, especially with the economic. You know, the global economy is even shakier now because of the months of the shutdown of the supply chain. So we'll see. Trump on his social media posted a meme over the weekend that we have all the cards and it was a picture of him holding a bunch of UNO cards. It's like the wild card or something in uno. The problem with that is for anyone that's actually played UNO with a child recently, which I have, you're trying to get rid of all your cards in uno. So having a lot of cards is. And one of the Iranian guys posted a picture. They were only holding like three UNO cards plus four. And so it's like you can't even win the meme battle against Iran. It's an American card game Uno that the Iranians understand better than us. Not good. Not pretty right now for Trump. All right, yo, you got the big wireless carriers out there trying to keep everybody's money. I don't know about you, but you look at that wireless bill every month and I'm like, really? This is how much I'm paying? I am on my phone a lot, but it's not a minute by minute service. How's you looking around? And I want to point you to our friends at Mint Mobile. With Mint Mobile you could save a ton of money compared to the big wireless carrier. Stop overpaying for wireless just because that's how it's always been. Mint exists purely to fix that. Mint Mobile is here to rescue with premium wireless pay ins starting at just 15 bucks a month. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. We looked into this then all the discussion in the parents chains is what are you doing with with kids mobile plan? You don't want to give it to them in second grade. We're fighting hard right now. We have a, we have a bull work if you will of parents uniting together to make sure our second graders aren't getting it. But the older kids, ones that have older kids and eventually they're looking into it. Do you want to go to your big wireless plan? What's going to cost more and more? This one, 15 bucks a month. It's a good option for, I don't know, the ninth grader. I don't want to get in trouble with anybody. The seventh grader in your life, the ninth grader, whatever. If you like your money, Mint Mobile is for you. Shop plans@mintmobile.com bulwark that's mintmobile.com bulwark upfront payment of 45 bucks for 3 month 5 gigabyte plan required equivalent to 15 bucks a month new customer offer for the first 3 months only. Then full price plan options available, taxes and fees, extra c Mint Mobile for details the other news item over the weekend that's related to this was Trump moving 5,000 troops out of Germany. Like a lot of things with Trump which is like if you, if you came with a proposal that was like, hey, you know, we're spending too much on our military installations in Europe. And you know, we've done a review and we've looked at this and it's like, you know, we could, we could do with fewer troops in Germany or this place or that place. You know, I would be open to, to that type of proposal but this is a temper tantrum. He's mad that the Europeans weren't helping us enough in Iran. And it also seems to be a pretty ominous signal for NATO. So both Mark Erling and Eric Edelman wrote about this for us over the weekend. I was wondering if you have any thoughts on that.

Bill Kristol (15:20)

No, you're absolutely right. I mean there's no law of nature that there have to be 35,000 US troops in Germany instead of 30,000. And for all we know, that could be reasonable waste to get it down to 30. But the idea that this is punishing Germany is insane. I mean, Germany's happy to have those troops. I mean, it's not clear that net. Net they gain that much economically from it, but we gain a lot. You know, this war in Iran, what hospital do people go to after they, after the attacks on the US Basis in Kuwait or when soldiers get injured in the region and they have been incidentally, many more unfortunately wounded and injured than Hank Seth's Defense Department has allowed. It seems like they get taken to Ramstein. In Germany, where do people refuel? Where do troops go? I mean, it's part of our forward presence. Now, if Trump wants to go full America first and get R of our forward presence in Germany and in Korea and Japan, that's in a way a coherent strategy. But taking 5,000 troops out of Germany isn't coherent. And I do think the most important thing about it from political here is it just makes him look childish. I think that narrative is now, which is true, of course, has kind of hit some kind of critical mass. It's just people do have the sense of what, what the, what's he doing? I mean, does he. It's just like he doesn't. He gets annoyed at them and so he pulls some troops out of there and everything is kind of just, just little hissy fits. Yeah, hissy fits is not making America great again.

Tim Miller (16:36)

And actually kind of watching just the shambolic actions in Iran has brought some clarity to kind of why we need bases in other places. Right. It's like if we don't have access to, let's say that that's the logical end of this. Right? Like we're taking out some troops, but then we end up just taking out all troops out of Germany. It's like, okay, well, it's a lot longer flight from wherever, Greenland or the US over to the Middle east than it is from Germany. And if there was actually a situation where we had real acute security threats for our troops in the region, allies, anyone else, it matters in that way. And Trump is not interested or capable of articulating that for sure. But I think understanding it is probably the reality.

Bill Kristol (17:26)

But I do think, didn't he do that shortly after some long form conversation with Putin? It does signal. I mean, it's not. That's true. Those troops were not going to be rushed to the front to fight Russia, presumably if Russia did something in the balt or whatever. I think they mostly support troops and you know, refueling and medical and stuff like that. But symbolically, it just is, again, you know, he has a call with Putin and let's, I'll take some more troops out. And of course, with all of his other assaults on NATO, it just brings home the fact that we are not a reliable custodian of NATO or of the free world.

Tim Miller (17:59)

David Ignatius, over the weekend I saw this, it just kind of caught my eye, said that he feels like because of the strength of Ukraine and the way that the amount of resilience that Ukraine has showed. You wrote about this a little bit morning shots this morning, too, that Putin, it's maybe overstated to say he's in a corner, but that he has fewer strategic moves than maybe he might have or might have looked like he had when Trump first came back into power. And that one thing that he might do do is strike one of the Baltic states to just sort of test NATO even further. And he might do that while Trump is in power, just to show kind of that really that NATO is officially dead. Because presuming that Trump would not come to the defense of Estonia or whatever, who knows? I mean, David Ignatius doesn't have any inside sources or crystal ball, but I thought it was an interesting observation, particularly in context of the move in Germany.

Bill Kristol (18:55)

Yeah, Nicolas does have actually good sources over the years, especially in the intelligence community. So I wonder if they're seeing something that makes them a little worried. I mean, Putin, why does he. Why has he attacked Ukraine? I mean, repeatedly was it's not in NATO. Right. I mean, one of the things we learned from the last 10 years is NATO is a deterrent. Putin does not want a war with NATO. He does think, ooh, you know, that could trigger the U.S. and then we're in a whole different military situation and also the European nation, the big European nations. So I think he wants to destroy NATO. And he is probably thinking, well, is there some way to kind of confirm that the US Guarantee isn't real? And they can always manufacture excuses, especially in some of those in the Baltic nation. So I don't know. I don't know that he's going to do it. He's been somewhat cautious. He's very cautious in taking on NATO. On the other hand, that's his alleged grievance that NATO expanded. So it would make a certain amount of sense from his point of view. If we then didn't do anything, it would be the end of NATO. It would cause all. Now it might also lead Poland and Germany and everyone to rearm even faster. Than they are. So I don't know which way it cuts ultimately for Putin.

Tim Miller (20:00)

This episode of the Borg podcast is brought to you by the Freedom From Religion Foundation. You hear us talk a lot on this show about defending democratic norms, and this is one of the big ones as we approach America's 250th anniversary. Remember, this country started as a rebellion against a king who claimed divine authority. And their founders didn't replace that with a new religion of their own. They wrote a secular constitution. No religious tests, no state church. Power comes from the people. That's the system. But right now, we're seeing more and more efforts to blur that line. We're seeing it here, a bunch in Louisiana with mandatory 10 Commandments in the classroom. It's like, maybe we should get our State out of 50th and performance in the classroom before we, you know, worry about putting God's mandate on all the walls. The Freedom From Religion foundation is working to protect the First Amendment because it protects you. If that matters to you. Go to FFRF US Religion or text RELIGION to 511-511 to join or learn more, go to FFRF US Religion or Text RELIGION to 511-511 now. Because this is one of those guardrails, we can't afford to lose. Text RELIGION to 511-511-today. Text fees, maybe. Todd Blanche, our interim acting attorney general, was on the Sunday shows this weekend. Why? It's unclear. Well, before I play the clip, I actually don't know the answer to that. Why? Why are they still doing Sunday shows? They don't have to. I mean, I understand it. On the jawboning on the economy part of it. You know, the jawboning on Iran. You want to send people out there to be, like, deals around the corner. I understand why Trump called into Squawk Box before the market opened last week, but, like, I don't really understand why they're doing. And I guess it's good that they feel like they still need to do this to exert some legitimacy or maybe, I don't know. Do you have any theories? Merrick Garland didn't do the Sunday shows. Why is Todd Blanche doing Meet the Press?

Bill Kristol (22:00)

I just assume he wants to be the real Attorney General, not just acting attorney general. And he wants to show Trump that he will defend. He will defend this ludicrous prosecution of Comey. I guess.

Tim Miller (22:09)

So it's a humiliation routine for Trump. Trump is making them go through the paces to demonstrate their loyalty. That feels right. That's a good answer. All right, well, the degree of the humiliation, if you were not, if you're like me, you're a jazz fest on Sunday, or you're just at church, or you're enjoying your Sunday and decided not to tune in. Haven't seen any clips. It's quite a doozy. Let's listen to Todd Blanche explain the Jim Comey indictment to Kristen welker.

Commercial Narrator (22:34)

That on Amazon.com, we looked this up. There are dozens of products with the same terminology. We're showing it right here, 86.47 being

Bill Kristol (22:42)

sold and purchased right now.

Commercial Narrator (22:44)

Should individuals selling or buying 8647 merchandise be concerned that they're going to be prosecuted by the doj?

Tim Miller (22:51)

This is.

Bill Kristol (22:52)

This isn't about a single incident.

Tim Miller (22:54)

Okay? This isn't. I mean, of course not. That's posted constantly.

Bill Kristol (22:57)

That phrase is used constantly.

Tim Miller (22:59)

There are constantly men and women who

Bill Kristol (23:01)

choose to make threatening statements against President Trump.

Tim Miller (23:04)

Every one of those statements do not result in indictments.

Bill Kristol (23:07)

Of course.

Commercial Narrator (23:07)

You are suggesting the seashells themselves are not at the root of this indictment.

Bill Kristol (23:13)

No, I am suggesting that every single

Tim Miller (23:15)

case depends on the investigation that's done.

Bill Kristol (23:17)

And of course, the seashells are part of that case. I mean, that's what the public sees.

Tim Miller (23:23)

Okay, so some good news there. I feel pretty good. It sounds like that I can say 86, 47 right here on the podcast and not have fear that I'll be indicted by the DOJ because it was specifically an indictment about Jim Comey saying 8647 via Seashell ARC.

Bill Kristol (23:40)

Yeah, those seashells are threatening in a way that just saying it isn't or having a baseball cap isn't.

Tim Miller (23:44)

T shirt. Yeah, there's some message in the shells.

Bill Kristol (23:47)

Yeah. Trump said, oh, everyone knows in the movies the Mobsters always say 86 when they want to rub someone out. And then everyone's producing. No one's actually found that in a movie, but everyone's found people saying 86 that when they want to get rid of something in a restaurant or shove

Tim Miller (24:00)

somewhere 86 your sideburns.

Bill Kristol (24:02)

Yeah, 86 sideburns is the one.

Tim Miller (24:04)

Right?

Bill Kristol (24:05)

I mean, we laugh about it. Of course it is. I don't know it. You know, maybe they can get a friendly jury. They got an indictment from a grand jury. Maybe they'll find a get a furniture. They're putting Comey through a lot of expenses and so forth. And they don't get, you know, unless it's considered, I guess, malicious or something. Prosecution. You don't get Your expenses back when the government prosecutes you for a while and then you win, you know, so maybe it intimidates people a little, but this is just. Yeah, it just so brings home again. I can't believe people like this. At the end of the day, whatever. Maybe they think the Biden Justice Department shouldn't have gone after Trump and Jack Smith was doing to over, you know, was overreaching and blah, blah, blah. But can they really think this is the entire Justice Department now is just a revenge opportunity for Donald Trump? I don't know.

Tim Miller (24:49)

Yeah, I don't know. I mean, obviously there's nothing else. We all know what Jim Comey is doing. He's writing fiction books, he's walking through the woods, taking pictures, reading Randall Bieber, hanging out with his grandkids. Like, we know what he's doing. There's not a plot. So.

Bill Kristol (25:01)

So.

Tim Miller (25:01)

But they keep like implying that there's other things there. Right. Like that's what Kristen Welker came to and said. So are you saying it isn't the seashells is not central to the case? He's like, no, it's the shells. I guess maybe they have a, you know, they have a jagged edge plus other evidence.

Bill Kristol (25:14)

You know, maybe. Look, I'm just making. Maybe they have an email which Jim Comey says to Mrs. Comey or to someone else. You know, it'd be good if he just, if they, if we could get him out of office somehow or if he left, you know, Vance would be more responsible. I mean, I'm. No, see, that's a kind of incitement. I mean, I don't think Jim Comey was in touch with professional hitmen, though, trying to get them to bump off Trump.

Tim Miller (25:34)

Very clearly not. It's embarrassing. Like the degree to which it's just, you know, going back to the banana republic. It's like I keep leaning backwards towards the mockable is the right way to do this because, you know, just kind of like we were saying at the beginning of a pod, putting myself in my brain from not even after the, like after Cash Patel got nominated to doj. Right. Like, one thing that I was really worried about was that they were going to use the surveillance powers of the government, the investigative powers of the government to go after people. And they could do a lot of damage pre indictment. The government can ruin your life before they have to go to a grand jury, as a matter of fact, and that they would use the various powers of the government to really make the lives miserable of some of their foes. And they've tried that. And it's just time and again it's been in the most ham handed way imaginable. And so like there have been other things that the DOJ and the FBI have done that have been really, you know, terrible and condemnable and a lot of regular people are suffering. People in ICE detention, you go through all that. But like the revenge part of this is really Keystone Cops is, is the nicest thing you could say about it.

Bill Kristol (26:51)

Yeah. And the only caution, as you sort of hinted at this, that I would have to our friends who are really just into the mof, pure mockery is, you know, also Renee Good and Alex Freddy were killed and the SPLC is being prosecuted for nothing, you know, for having used informants to help fight the KKK in a perfectly legal way, so far as one can tell, cooperated with the FBI and then they're being put through the wringer. And so it's a weird mix, I agree. But the revenge tour part of it is making him weaker. You know, I was talking with David Baer yesterday. I did the podcast on Hungary and he's written terrific stuff for us.

Tim Miller (27:26)

It was really good. Just by the way, people should go check that if you're interested in more on Hungary. David Barrett, thanks.

Bill Kristol (27:30)

He's great. Yeah. Maybe it was off camera that we discussed this, but Orban was a pretty tough authoritarian and very good at making life miserable for businessmen who didn't work with him, who didn't pay off his people. He put independent media out of business, but he doesn't seem to have done this kind of petty revenge idiocy. You know what I mean? He didn't let himself be mockable, if you want to think of it that way. Ultimately it ran out for him after 16 years too. But there's something about Trump's version of it is. Let's hope it back. Well, it is backfiring, isn't it? I guess all this is going down to the polls. Something's causing that.

Tim Miller (28:05)

Let's turn to the polls. Actually, just one thing on the business because you mentioned I wanted to get to this with Ossoff and I just didn't have enough time because I do think it's kind of lost in all of the news. But it's pretty crazy what Trump is doing. After the tariff ruling as far as pressuring businesses, the Supreme Court ruled that the government illegally took money from businesses, or ultimately consumers paid that because business passed on to the consumer. But essentially the government issued an illegal tax onto business, took the money and then the court ruled that they had to pay the money back. And what the president is doing is pressuring and threatening the businesses and saying, hey, I'm keeping an eye on who actually applies to get the money back. And if you just be a good patriot and let us keep the money, that's going to be something we remember. And that is just totally insane. Like the, the amount of freak out that the Wall Street Journal and Fox would have if a Democratic president was like threatening businesses saying, hey, you know, we took more in taxes than, than we should have. Like, we garnished money from your company and we took it and we put it into public services and legally you could take us to court to get it back. But if you do, we're going to punish you in other ways. We're going to threaten you. So it might be better for you just to leave the cash with us. I mean, like, what is, what is that if not socialism? Authoritarian socialism?

Bill Kristol (29:31)

Yeah, it is authoritarianism. I mean, you know what I think's happened is I think students of authoritarianism and elsewhere have always said this, that if you let people's, most people's, the huge majority of people's normal lives chug ahead in a fairly rule of law context. So you don't get a parking ticket because you're anti Trump, you don't get your own income taxes are probably treated anonymously and sort of fairly, etc. Etc. Then if Trump plays the games with Mark Zuckerberg and with big businesses and with Don Jr. And all voters are, they don't like it. Maybe they think it's not really a great way to run a country, but it doesn't. Their own lives do not feel lawless and unmoored and subject to the whims of every of the state. Now that is obviously that's what kind of local corruption often is like. And that's what the south was like for blacks obviously for, for a heck of a long forever really until very pretty recently. And that's what really causes people to say this is, is, this is bad, this is really terrible. Right? And that was, if you think of East Europe as, you know, the stuff that one read about there, it was, it was that everyone had to be paid off, that you couldn't get anything without a deal with some local petty bureaucrat. I don't think we're at that stage yet in the US because we have state, local governments, because Trump hasn't been able to kind of get down to that level and maybe he doesn't personally want it. But I feel like that's where I think gas prices, even Spirit Airlines. I mean, just the stuff that's starting to affect actual consumers, the tariff stuff to some degree. It's like, you know, why is he doing this to us Kind of thing, you know.

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Tim Miller (32:35)

That takes us back to the polls. So approval rating we've got, the most recent is at 37%. We've been seeing them all over the 30s. But I thought this was interesting. The one you highlighted in morning shots this morning. 23% approval on cost of living 27% approval on inflation 33% on conflict in Iran, 34% on the economy 40 on immigration. It starts to affect everything. This is one of those things where it's like let's say, and there is some element to this. We've seen Poll Mrs. Recently and I do think that there is some psychology to if you're annoyed you're not answering the polls as much and you don't want to do right. So let's just say that there's some silent maga in here and it's off by 6%. Even still then his number at the economy is still 40 and cost of living is still under 30, even if it's off significantly. To me, I think that is really telling, especially when you consider that it seems like things are going to get worse before they get better economically and that they don't. I don't have a plan or an idea or even some spin on how they're going to fix it.

Bill Kristol (33:46)

I think the inflation thing is interesting because I've been a little bit. I think I've changed my mind a little. I've been sort of thinking people a little overdoing it here. They remember Biden's inflation. They're hypersensitive to it. It's gone up some under Trump, and that's not good. And some particular goods, obviously gas now, but people, I mean, I don't know, does Trump deserve to be that low on inflation, really? Is it really hurting people? But I now wonder whether I've been. That people are actually pretty smart about this in a way. What they're seeing is quite a lot of inflation. And if you look at some of the goods that people buy most regularly, that is true. Not just gasoline, but other things they buy in grocery stores and stuff, groceries and stuff like that. I talked to a couple of economists about this last week, and that can be a bit of a leading indicator. I mean, the Fed has these complicated reasons why they don't calculate certain things. They prefer to look at more stable things and all this. But you can make a case that, in a way, the public is a little ahead of the economist now in seeing that inflation is going back up and it's not going to, certainly it's not going to come down soon. It doesn't seem like with everything that's happening in the straight and with $2 trillion deficits and the Fed's not going to raise rates, I don't think to reduce inflation, Trump's going to pressure them to cut rates some more. So I kind of agree that that number is terrible for Trump, but it's a little hard to see why it gets better.

Tim Miller (34:58)

I think the other thing that this is related to, it's related to Biden is the degree to which people just have a sense of in their own lives for, like, what they were able to afford. And this was really what happened during COVID Right. And it's just like in the normal daily kind of products that you buy. There was a sense that when we hit that big inflation spike in 2022, they used to go out to dinner once a week. And I was like, ugh, it's getting tight. Or I have to go when I'm going to dinner, I'm like, I'm not going to get the wine tonight because I know it costs too much. Right. And it's not that long ago now. It's five years ago. But remember, like, a sense that they could do this or that without worrying, you know, about the family budget. And like, that did change. I get was, you know, we're about to get to a JBL compliment here in, in a second. But JBL underestimated when he was talking about, you know, the reaction of the Biden economy in 2024, he's talking about how well, you know, employment was still up. You know, like, there are all these other indicators. It wasn't as bad as a Great Recession, but the poll numbers were. And I was like, yeah, it wasn't as bad as the Great Recession in macro, but in every individual's life, something had changed that was annoying. That made them have to tighten their belts in a various way. Everybody can see that. And people don't like that. Well, they feel like they're getting punished. I have the same job or the same. I have the same kind of aspirations for what I wanted to do, and I can't do it anymore because the cost went up. And then Trump ran against that economy and now he's exacerbated that. Right. And it's not as if it's even stayed the same. It's gotten a little worse now. It hasn't hit hyperinflation. We're not into whatever, but, like, the same complaint exists. And now we're layering big gas prices on top of that. And so to me, that, if you think about it like that, it's totally understandable why his numbers would be that low.

Bill Kristol (36:56)

Yeah. And there's no reason for it except Trump's foolish policies. I mean, that is to say, if one thing, if you have a pandemic, Trump, in a way, didn't pay as much of a price. Feel is very annoyed about this, too. And you know, that for his mismanagement of the pandemic. But I do think voters there thought, who knows? That's such a nightmare that. No, who knows how to handle it well. And Trump's popping off a little more than he should, but he's probably not handling it that much worse than other countries. And, you know, so you get a little bit of a. And if there's a huge, you know, Russia's invasion of Ukraine Actually, in Europe, politicians who were in power then didn't pay as much of a price for a rough six, nine months of gas prices and stuff. This is totally caused by Trump. There is no exogenous reason why this should be happening. Right? I mean, and they're not even offering one.

Tim Miller (37:37)

It's like they're even. They've taken up the 47 years. Iran's been coming at us for 47 years. It's not even saying that there was some acute threat.

Bill Kristol (37:45)

And you know, if I get it, because we mentioned the 5,000 soldiers in Germany, this is relevant to this. And Trump's proposing. I'm a hawk, I've always argued the defense budget, we took down defense down too much in the 90s. It needs to go back up, go up a little faster than it was going up. Trump's proposing a $1.5 trillion defense budget, which is, I don't increase. Some insane increase, just a number they made up and is totally unmoored from reality. I suppose they're not going to get it. They'll get something though. But I do think that's also hurting. It's like, wait a second, if Trump said, look, you know what, we'll have to tighten our belts, it's a bit rough out there for various reasons I can kind of explain to you a little bit. And therefore 5,000 troops out of Germany and therefore cutting back on some other things. We're increasing defense by massive amounts and pulling the troops out of Germany. So where's this money going? What's going to Don Jr. And Eric and all this? I just think it all becomes a bit of a drone company has now, I think gelled together. Not due to any great genius, honestly on the parts probably of any of the Democratic small D or capital D opposition to Trump, but just because it is true, I mean, you know what I mean. The corruption and the kleptocracy is happening at the same time the prices are going up and at the same time that they irresponsibly want to spend a huge amount of money on defense without being anywhere, without being competent, however, and without any sense of competence in how they would use these troops and how they'd use this money anyway. I think it's all kind of come together other in that respect.

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Tim Miller (40:39)

Any updated thoughts on how Trump's terrible numbers match up with the House Senate state of play coming up? And obviously we have I should mention I did mention the ruling last week gutting Section two of the Voting Rights Act. I went very deep on this with Mark Elias over the weekend. You can see that on the Borg Takes feed or on the YouTube if they missed it. We talked about, you know, what's happening here in Louisiana where Jeff Landry's literally nullifying some votes. People had sent in absentee valid votes already and they stopping the election in order to try to jam through or redraw the map to get rid of one of the majority minority districts here in the state. And so I do think that that will conceivably make some difference on the margins. And they're looking at Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, maybe squeeze one seat out of all those. Obviously that's condemnable and bad, but in the macro I don't think it changes the House picture all that much. But what's your sense of the state of play?

Bill Kristol (41:35)

I agree with that. And the generic ballot, which had been trailing Trump's disapproval, if you know what I mean. The gap wasn't moving as fast. And I get the endeavor does move quite as fast because there can be some disapprovers who still want to vote Republican. Right. Has moved now. I mean, that post ABC poll is +5 on the generic. But then with those who are most sure they're going to vote, it's plus nine Democratic. That's a real number. I mean, I think it was plus 8 in 2018. So that would get you to a real big move, sort of 2006 does seem to be the model whenever.

Tim Miller (42:05)

Not enough for the Senate, though. Plus nine isn't enough. I mean, maybe, yes, you need to

Bill Kristol (42:09)

get it to double digits, but I think that's doable. These things do tend to pick up a little bit in the last six months, four or five months of the campaign once you get the momentum going a little bit. The one thing I'd be interesting that I think people haven't talked about much. I have no idea if the numbers are big enough to make this happen. I mean, I do think think I mean, black voters are literally going to lose. There's not going to be a black congressman. It looks like if they succeed in their registering plans from Louisiana, from Alabama, maybe from Mississippi or I can't, I'm not even sure about that.

Tim Miller (42:33)

Yeah. And Louisiana would still have one, conceivably with the new map. But you know, they could redraw it again because right now we have two and so but Alabama would lose that. Yeah. Tennessee could lose all the, you know,

Bill Kristol (42:45)

and I've got to think black voters, but also other voters who think really, I mean that's now we're now just like basically, let's have lily white congressional delegations from Southern states that have 20, 95, 30% black population. We're not talking about lily white congressional delegations from Utah, you know, so I wonder if it does if blacks go out to vote more, A, to try to save one or two of those seats and B, at least they can vote in the Senate race. And I actually wonder someone I haven't looked at this closely enough to have an intelligent opinion about it, but Mississippi already people were talking. Laura wrote about this for us, was sort of thought to be in play. Alabama, there's a good candidate on the Democratic side who's a former never Trump Republican, a Republican voter against Trump. I know slightly from that we're a, I don't know quite Louisiana. I defer to you on that.

Tim Miller (43:26)

But there's a messy Louisiana's not happening.

Bill Kristol (43:28)

You don't think.

Tim Miller (43:29)

But no, unfortunately we haven't recruited anybody good. But there's a good the people that have been recruited are all good humans. I don't mean to Impugn them. It's just not on the electability side.

Bill Kristol (43:38)

So I just think black turnout could go up in these states and maybe tip one of them into the column. And then the farm economy. I do think in Kansas and Iowa, where there are good Democratic candidates in primaries in both cases, but I think whoever would win would be good actually at least would be more interesting and more plausible than a typical Democrat in those states. I think they're in play. So I do think the map has widened a lot on the Senate.

Tim Miller (44:01)

I'm interested in Mississippi. Scott Colum is the candidate there, black guy who's won in the state. You know, the Brandon Presley. That race was not so far off a couple years ago when he ran. So, you know, and you'd have to really get a diminished turnout from maga. And that would, that would require, obviously swing voter. It requires everything to win in Mississippi. You need a perfect straight because you're going to need to juice turnout, particularly among black voters, and then have a depressed white, let's just be honest, older white Republican base deciding that they're pissed at Trump over the war prices or farm economy, et cetera, and not voting at all. So, tbd, I do have to give one finger wag because Sarah interviewed Kyle Sweetser, who's the candidate you mentioned running in Alabama. And like, there was some pushback in the comments about how there were some people in Alabama and the Democratic groups who are, who don't trust him and are upset about him because he gave an opinion about trans sports and youth that they don't like. And she's like, guys, it's Alabama. Please, please. I mean, you know, like, please. I do think that if Democrats are going to be able to win, I don't even know what his position was on it. And I guess my point is it kind of doesn't matter. Like, please, if you want to win a race in Alabama, there has to be some, some grace ext about maybe some differing views on cultural issues. Just encourage everybody to take kind of a deep breath when it comes to that kind of thing because these are the states now. Alabama is going to be a real stretch and Kyle's a good guy. But Iowa, there's an interesting candidate that just jumped in the Kansas race who's a pastor. There are a couple good, interesting candidates in the Kansas race. Then you have Montana, you have this independent running who is a college administrator. So I don't know. You know, I mean, all of that stuff seems more in play now than it could have been. And that is Important for this reason. Jbl, I told you I'd compliment him. Wrote at the end of last week in his newsletter about the disaster scenario, which is that the Democrats win four Senate seats but don't take the Senate because Fetterman flips. And if you have any worries that JBL is a catastrophizer. Oh, JBL is always so negative. Well, two days later, here's Politico Jonathan Martin. Martin talks about how the, the full court press is on to get Fetterman to flip in this scenario. Trump, I guess, passed a message on to Hannity when Fetterman was on Hannity. And Hannity relayed this, saying that Trump told him that his job was to tell Fetterman he's got to run as a Republican. He's going to have our full support, more money than he's ever dreamed of, and he's going to win big. So, you know, that could conceivably mean that the Democrats have to win five states, which takes you out of. I've kind of settled the big four on North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska. I think it's the most likely. But so now if you've got to win a fifth, now you're really into this. Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Alabama territory.

Bill Kristol (46:52)

I think JBL was right. And I mean, I don't know that federal will switch, but he could. It's happened before and it's very worrisome. But look, if you get a big enough wave, you could get, you know, maybe it's just as likely to get six as four. At that point, you know, things start to topple over.

Tim Miller (47:08)

Yeah. Texas, you throw Talarico in there. Yeah, yeah. No, I do think that that is gettable. The Fetterman thing is he keeps falling back on why voted most with the Democrats. And it's true. But the degree to which he is poking people in the eye, it's like in this moment where Trump's approval rating is in the tank. Fetterman was out this weekend on Fox again talking about how the Democrats have tds and we should just be supporting Trump's foreign policy. Marco Rubio has done a good job. Job. It's just like, what I mean, honestly, how are you even getting that? Fetterman is more enthusiastic than Trump's foreign policy moves, than some Republicans, some actual Republican senators, to the degree he's not

Bill Kristol (47:52)

just being whatever, exasperated or a troublemaker and so forth, but really wants to run again. He is laying the groundwork for switching parties. I think, regardless almost of what happens in November, whether he's the 49th or 50th or 51st or 52nd senator and laying the groundwork for having Trump be grateful enough to him that he tries to clear the field. I'm not sure he could actually. But you know, in the Republican primary in 2028 in Pennsylvania, assuming that the veteran wants to wants to run again. So I do think that's the only kind of rational explanation for what he's doing. It's not the normal we mentioned earlier jostling from the left because they don't like centrist Democrats and the centrist don't like left wing Democrats. But your phrase was so good there. Was it extending grace to people? I mean the people need to calm down. It's you know what, I'm all for fighting all kinds of fights on issues and on personalities of you want in 2027, 28 and left to resolve. They'll have presidential candidates. So they'll have he'll he or she will resolve things. But there has to be a somewhat coherent Democratic position on some key issues. Now, they can tolerate a pretty big tent here. And the degree to which are you finding this? I'm getting like people want to have meetings to say to litigate various issues within the Democratic Party. And the Democratic tent. And the Democratic tent was I'm glad you brought this with a small D. I'm in a little bit of a state about it, honestly. I mean I've sort of wrote some slightly terse email back to someone who wanted me to come to some meeting about this and how we have to it's like, no, I have no interest in coming to this meeting.

Tim Miller (49:15)

No. The burn the witch culture and it is happening among the aggressive partisans on I was going to say both wings, but there's kind of like three wings. There's the moderate Democratic group that want to just make condemning Graham Platner and Hassan Piker the most important thing right now. And then there's kind of like the woke Democratic group that's going to go after people who like Sweetser who have the wrong position on transports. And there's the lefty populist group that wants to go after Alyssa Slotkin like she's the devil. It's just like I have preferences in all this case. But if you can sit here right now in May of 2026 and look at the field right now and look at what is happening in our politics and you're like the thing that makes me the most mad right now is Alyssa Slotkin or Graham Platner. I don't relate to you at all. I think that is a total misjudgment about what is happening. I think that Alyssa Slotkin and Graham Platner, if they're both in the Senate together, would both cast votes I disag with. But I don't think either of them are in any way a threat to the Republic or a threat to, you know, the future of our. Of our country and our children. And like, right now we have this, like disastrous presidency that is happening where he is, you know, trying to grab power for himself, go around the law, jail his enemies, kill protesters, put immigrants in horrible condition prisons, get us into a stupid war that has no rationale, that's going to wreck the global economy. It's like, that's the thing to be mad about. That is the thing to be mad about. If you are mad about the other faction of the Democratic Party right now and you're trying to gain a little bit more power for your faction between now and 2028, I think that is a total waste of time and it shows a horrific judgment about what the real threat is to the country. So there you go. That's my rant about that. Thank you for getting me fired up, Bill.

Bill Kristol (51:06)

That was excellent. That was excellent. And people should need to hop to it and listen to you on this. No, I totally agree. And winning the House would help, would be the single most important thing to slow down and give us a chance to minimize the damage Trump could do in his last two years. And winning the House and the Senate would really make a huge difference. This is where I come back to the Senate. The Senate confirms, I mean, both Cabinet, obviously nominees and sub cabinet, but also justices, Supreme Court justices and also lower court judges. So if you think what Trump's gonna do in those last two years, if he has 51 Republicans in the Senate, he's going to jam through every judge he can who will uphold his policies and also uphold his attempt to seal the election in 2028 and uphold every Republican redistricting plan, like the kind we've seen that are going to create no black members of Congress from Southern states with 25% black population. I mean, that's kind of important to stop that or to stop more of it from happening. And that means winning the House and say even more. Not even more, but in addition. But importantly, in addition, and winning the Senate if possible.

Tim Miller (52:05)

So, yeah, maybe an ex attorney general and who knows if Blanche is still acting, the Senate could confirm that and look at what that could possibly mean. Yeah, just one more thing. On Fetterman. The one hopeful thing I have about Fetterman is he's such a baby. I think that he would maybe get more joy out of being the 51st Democratic senator and forcing Chuck Schumer to come to him for everything that they wanted to do than he would be to switch sides and just and be a Republican that gets one nice news cycle from his friends at Fox, but then after that it becomes irrelevant. Anyway, just a thought.

Bill Kristol (52:40)

The Mansion Kyrsten Sinema precedent is in that respect very bad because as kids taught people how much power you have,

Tim Miller (52:47)

how much power you have if you're

Bill Kristol (52:48)

the 50 at the 50 first vote.

Tim Miller (52:50)

I should just mention while we're ranting about intercoalition issues, Lauren Egan, our colleague, had an interesting story over the weekend about how some DNC members have been privately discussing trying to move out Kennedy Martin as DNC Chair. Kim Martin gave an incomprehensible interview to Jon Favreau for at Pod Save America that I did a live watch of on the stream last week if you want to go see that. But like I thought it was an interesting story by Lauren and I think that it is important to understand the degree of anxiety inside the Democratic coalition right now about ensuring maximum success this year. I just don't think the chair of the party is really as important as other people do. Having worked at the Republican National Committee, Republicans won some years with bad chairs, lost some years with good chairs. You can only do so much and those committees have gotten less and less powerful over time. That said, I don't know if you have any observations about the Ken Martin

Bill Kristol (53:48)

I've had the same experience in Washington. The quality of the party chair has very little correlation with anything.

Tim Miller (53:55)

Basically, I do want to give one shout out because I think a lot of people miss this. Are you aware that the shutdown is over?

Bill Kristol (54:02)

Good point.

Tim Miller (54:03)

It doesn't even get covered. It's crazy. Yeah, the DHS shutdown is officially over. The House voted via voice vote to advance the plan that frankly the bill Kristol is pushing for many months ago, which is just fund the rest of DHS but not ICE and cbp. The Senate had passed that a couple weeks ago. Now the House was holding out. The House Republicans are saying this is unacceptable and they eventually folded and as they've done so many times and Mike Johnson basically gives the Democrats a win. It's an interesting meta commentary on the media that there's not a lot of desire to give Hakeem Jeffries or Chuck Schumer credit for things because the right wing media hates them. The mainstream media wants to call it both ways. The left wing media wishes they were stronger for good reason. And so there's nobody out there pointing out that they did this shutdown they didn't have to do. There was some political risk to it, and it worked. And now CBP and ICE didn't get additional funding. And if they want to fund them, they got to fund them through reconciliation, which is a pretty meaningful concession because our reconciliation bill is the only way that they're going to be able to do anything this year. And, and, you know, this makes, makes that even harder.

Bill Kristol (55:10)

I mean, I feel like Jeffrey and Schumer have done. I mean, they say things occasionally that annoy me, like, you know, and they, they aren't quite who I would. If I get magic, especially with Schumer, if I could just pick someone, and I probably wouldn't pick him. But they haven't done a bad job. I mean, given they were really off, you know, the first six months rattled them, as we were saying before about us. They rattled everyone, really. But they've kind of adapted and I feel like they're doing okay. And Chuck Schumer foolishly tried to get Janet Mills, in retrospect foolishly, to be the. To run for the Senate in Maine. So he tried to get her to do so. She tried, she's failed. And now Chuck Schumer's having a cordial conversation with your man Platter there.

Tim Miller (55:44)

Not my man.

Bill Kristol (55:45)

I know.

Tim Miller (55:45)

I'm teasing. I'm teasing you. He didn't do a great job in Maine. I. We will say that was a fuck up. He's had some matter.

Bill Kristol (55:53)

It's not going to matter. He's. They're going to put money, money in to help him. Beef Collins and some of his Iran

Tim Miller (55:58)

war rhetoric hasn't been great, but tactically speaking, shutdowns have worked, so kudos. All right, final topic. The Triumphal Arch. The Triumphal Arch. We have some renderings now, some 3D renderings of this monstrosity. Apparently it's going to be four times larger than the initial proposal. It will be over between Arlington Cemetery and the Lincoln, Lincoln Memorial. I don't know. There's part of me that's like the more time Trump is spending on the arch, the less time he's doing, more damaging things. But it's pretty depressing. So I don't know. What do you make of the Triumphal Arch?

Bill Kristol (56:43)

I mean, it's grotesque in any case, but it's really grotesquely large. In addition to being just grotesque in theory, in principle. I mean if people don't know Washington, they wouldn't maybe quite appreciate. But you know, that's a very nice vista when you come across the Memorial Bridge. You got the Lincoln Memorial on one side of the wall and then Arlington Cemetery on the other. And it's very moving when you see Arlington. It's spread out there and this massive thing is going to be right in that middle the area where you go around that little, you know, traffic circle to get From Virginia to D.C. so no, it's really grotesque and everything's great. The grotesque. I wonder how much I hope that's turning people off. He wants to build, it's a nice municipal golf course. I don't play golf, so I've never been which people use. I mean it's quite well used municipal golf course. He wants to rip that off so he can have a PGA level golf course for his vanity and probably make money off it too, and also have built his garden of heroes. Think about that for a minute. He's going to Designate who the 250 Heroes of America are, I guess without any input really from anyone else. These other Lincoln Memorial I believe is like Congress had something to say about whether that was going to be built anyway. That was not a close call. He is going to decide who these heroes are and build this giant garden for them. The whole thing is just so kind of Stalinist and Kim Jong Un like and Mussolini like and stuff. I, I, it's, it's, but the arch is maybe the most infuriating of them, I guess of all those things because, because, because of the Arlington side of it. I mean that's such a lovely. And Arlington is such a wonderful place. I mean the, the gravestones are pretty much all the same, right. There's none of this kind of grand. You know, you don't get a bigger one because you were, you know, a general as opposed to a, a private at least. I don't, I don't think there really any that maybe there's one or two older days, they got kind of the nicer, bigger things. But certainly that's not the case today obviously. And if you go to section 60 where the recent vets are recent people who died in Iraq and Afghanistan and so forth are buried, it looks just like the sections where World War II vets are buried. So it's a very moving vista which this arch is going to destroy, which is why I think the veterans groups are suing to stop it. And I hope the courts do step up and stop a lot of this stuff. And I hope maybe Congress. Another thing Congress could do if the Democrats controlled it, sure, Trump might veto their attempts to stop it. But let him veto it and then pass it again and again and again and try to put him on this. Why exactly are you doing this? And I do think it brings home to people he's spending money on his vanity projects. He doesn't care about you. That was Trump's always a strength. Right? He cares about you, allegedly. And the Democrats don't. And so I think he's really given that away. Don't you think? That really is a.

Tim Miller (59:19)

Maybe the Democrats come up with a gimmick like the triumphal arch check. You take all the money that he's supposed to spend on the golf course, the triumphal arch and the ballroom. Add it all up together. Other divide it out. You know, everybody under the age of 35 gets a, gets a check for 50 bucks instead of, instead of the triumphal arch. I don't know. That's not the best idea. We'll keep, we'll keep brainstorming on that. We'll keep working on it. All right, that's Bill Crystal. We appreciate you very much. Lots happening. We're going to San Diego and LA. Remember, get your tickets May 20th and May 21st. Looking forward to being out there. And we'll be back tomorrow with another edition of the podcast. See y' all then. Say what this means to me. I'll do what I can.

Bill Kristol (60:10)

Impossible Germany, Unlikely Japan.

Tim Miller (60:17)

The Borg podcast is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer and stuff Skipper and with video editing by Katie Lutz and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

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Tim Miller (60:37)

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