The Bulwark Podcast: "Catherine Rampell and Michael Steinberger: Trump Wants to Cook the Books"

Date: December 17, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guests: Catherine Rampell (Bulwark Economics Editor), Mike Steinberger (Author, "The Philosopher in the Valley")

Overview

This double-header episode dives deep into two major topics:

1. The current troubled state of the US economy under Trump, including job numbers, stagflation fears, unreliable economic statistics, and the impacts of economic and immigration policy (with guest Catherine Rampell).
2. The inner workings, history, and controversial political evolution of Palantir and its CEO Alex Karp, exploring the company’s relationship with government surveillance, ICE, and the shifting boundaries of corporate responsibility in the age of rising authoritarianism (with guest Mike Steinberger).

The episode is marked by candid analysis, trenchant critiques, and memorable personal insights from both guests.

Segment 1: The Trump Economy, "Cooked Books," and Stagflation

Guest: Catherine Rampell (00:56 – 28:30)

Key Topics and Insights

State of the Economy – Troubling Numbers

• Delayed jobs report (03:21):
  • “Everybody's kind of looking around to figure out what's going on in this economy because it is very confusing. Everybody, specifically including the people at the Federal Reserve who have to actually act upon these data.”
    — Catherine Rampell [03:21]
  • Unemployment rate hit a four-year high of 4.6% (“not Super High,” but rising), alongside job losses in manufacturing seven months running.
  • Rampell: “Manufacturing was supposed to experience this big renaissance under Donald Trump. That obviously has not happened.” [03:44]

Questionable Economic Statistics and Political Interference

• Measurement problems:

  • Rampell explains the Federal Reserve thinks job gains are overstated by about 60,000 per month due to businesses that have closed not responding to surveys.
  • “It's a methodological challenge. It's, again, it's not about malfeasance. There are other kinds of malfeasance I'm worried about. And Donald Trump, I think very much wants to be cooking the books, but there is no evidence to date that he's actually doing that.” [05:27]

• Trump’s manipulation of economic statistics:

  • Firing those responsible for compiling official poverty guidelines and cutting funding for economic data agencies has made tracking economic conditions and foreign investment much harder.
  • “We're making it much more difficult to actually measure if he's keeping his promises.” [06:49]

Tariffs and the Return of Stagflation

• Tariff-driven stagflation:
  • “Inflation has picked up since Trump's Liberation day in April. Those things are not unrelated.” [08:38]
  • “Tariffs raise prices. That's the inflation part. And tariffs also weigh on the economy and make it harder for businesses to invest and grow and buy stuff. That's the stagnation part.” [09:12]
  • Federal Reserve is caught in a bind: Raising rates to fight inflation vs. cutting rates to boost the economy, ultimately hindered by Trump’s erratic trade policies and pressure for more rate cuts.

Trump’s Economic “Plan” and Magical Thinking

• Trump Bucks and Tariff Revenue Fantasies:
  • “I think the only plan Donald Trump ever has is sending out a check with his name on it. … And Donald Trump specifically is often claiming that he can use the abundant tariff revenue to pay for all of that.” [13:42]
  • “Of course, that's not the case. And in fact, the Supreme Court may soon rule that they have to give all that tariff money back to your coffee purveyor and other companies that have.” [14:17]
• If forced to refund tariff money:
  • Some retailers have already "priced in" possible tariff refunds. Any stimulus effect may be muted and would ironically undercut Trump’s policy narrative. [14:39]
  • Trump has already begun preparing alternative (legally shakier) tariff schemes if his current ones are struck down. [15:41]

Immigration Raids and Construction Jobs

• Harsh immigration enforcement:

  • “There has been a rash of these immigration raids on construction sites… rounding up all of the Latino looking immigrants who are working on it.” [18:28]
  • Even US citizens have been detained due to racial profiling.

• Economic consequences:

  • “These are jobs that, these are very demanding, difficult, backbreaking jobs. They're very hard to fill. … Construction companies have been complaining about labor shortages for years at this point.” [20:55]
  • Rampell: Business groups and industry are muted in protest, despite Trump’s policies hurting their labor supply and bottom line—contrasting with aggressive pushback against Obama-era policies. [21:40, 22:33]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Donald Trump came in promising something that he could never deliver, which was to lower prices. That is not something a president can do, at least not the aggregate price level. If the overall price level in the United States were actually falling, if we were experiencing deflation, that would mean the economy is very sick. Like that's what happened during the Great Depression.”
  — Catherine Rampell [11:49]
• “These are basically like pogroms that are going on and they're putting people's lives at risk.”
  — Catherine Rampell [19:22]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Jobs and economy: [02:27–06:49]
• Stats and book-cooking concerns: [04:39–07:57]
• Inflation, stagflation, and tariffs: [07:57–12:42]
• Trump “Bucks”/Tariff refunds: [12:31–15:38]
• Immigration and construction jobs impact: [18:28–22:33]
• Failure of business backlash: [22:11–24:04]
• Roomba/iRobot as economic parable: [24:04–28:05]

Segment 2: Palantir, Surveillance, and Alex Karp’s Political Journey

Guest: Mike Steinberger (30:51–67:18)

Key Topics and Insights

What Is Palantir?

• Origin and Mission:
  • “Palantir is a technology company that specializes in data analytics. It sells software platforms that enable organizations to make better, faster use of their own data... Palantir has its roots in the war on terrorism… to help the US Government find terrorists.” [31:23]
• Consultancy/Contractor Role:
  • Palantir doesn’t just make software—they embed teams in agencies during crises (e.g., Afghanistan evacuation) to help organize and interpret massive datasets. [33:14–34:33]

Surveillance and Civil Liberties Concerns

• Palantir’s “step remove” from direct surveillance:
  • “It's not surveillance technology, but it does help organizations that deploy surveillance technology do their jobs more efficiently… Palantir is like one step remove, you could say, if we are seeing the emergence of a surveillance state.” [36:28]
• Palantir does not monitor how clients use its software—meaning ethical lines are drawn by clients like ICE or the CIA.

Company Origins, Peter Thiel, and the Karp–Thiel Dynamic

• Thiel the Founder, Karp the CEO:

  • Thiel had the initial idea post-9/11; Karp brought in early to lead. Thiel remains chairman, not involved day-to-day. The two bond over being political opposites: Thiel far right/libertarian, Karp then a self-described progressive/neosocialist. [37:29–39:47]

• Evolution of Karp:

  • Karp’s politics shift rightward, especially post-October 7, 2025 (after the new Israel–Gaza war), increasing friction with his old progressive image.

• “For most of Palantir's history, that meant defending liberal democracy. And Karp took that very personally. In some sense, you could say Palantir existed to help make the world safe. For Alex Karp, that was how he believed he was doing helping make the world safe for millions of others. But it was a very personal mission for him.” [43:02]

• “When he talks about defending the west now, it's not really about defending liberal democracy. It's about defending the west as a sort of cultural entity. And in that sense, he is very much aligned now with Thiel.” [44:49]

Working with the U.S. Government, Especially ICE

• Shift in attitude toward work with ICE:
  • During Trump’s first term, Karp had misgivings about Palantir’s ICE contracts; this time, “he is expressing full support for what Trump is doing. He believes that that last year voters sent us very strong message that they want the demographics of the country to basically remain the same and that Trump's policy is doing that. And Palantir is happy to help this time.” [53:19]
• Karp and Palantir have responded with fury to stories suggesting they are helping build an authoritarian “master database,” especially as MAGA-aligned right-wingers start to distrust Palantir as “the deep state.” [57:21–57:50]

The Dangers of Ubiquitous Surveillance Machinery

• Where does Palantir draw the line?
  • “Karp has not said, you know, what his red lines are. I assume there must be red lines… but one would like to think there are lines that can't be crossed using Palantir's technology. We just don't know what those are.” [66:21]

Karp as Public Figure / Meme Stock

• Brand management, personal style:
  • Karp has become more outspoken (“Papa Carp” to retail investors), with a “loaded for bear” style in interviews, playing to a loyal base. [62:10]
• Parallels drawn to Elon Musk but with warnings: “You get a little too close to the sun, it gets too hot, you do end up hurting your core business. That feels like a not crazy path.” [62:35]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It's kind of like the Jack Nicholson character in A Few Good Men: ‘You may not like me, you may not respect me, but you need me.’ And that's very much his attitude.” — Mike Steinberger [59:40]
• On technological power and authoritarian risk:
  • “This would be a very powerful tool in the hands of an authoritarian regime. And the concern now is that we have taken a turn to authoritarianism, and Palantir is facilitating... its technology is facilitating that.” [66:21]
• On the changing meaning of "defending the West":
  • “When he talks about defending the west now, it's not really about defending liberal democracy. It's about defending the west as a sort of cultural entity.” [44:49]
• On red lines (or lack thereof):
  • “You can't just say, well, it's just a tool and they have no responsibility for it. They make choices.” [66:21]
• On public backlash:
  • “He wants to push back hard against the critics... Palantir has developed a very, very strong retail fan base who thinks that he can't do anything wrong.” [61:07–62:35]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Palantir: what it actually is: [31:23–33:14]
• Afghanistan evacuation + hands-on role: [34:04–35:22]
• Surveillance tech & clients: [36:16–37:29]
• Palantir’s origins & Thiel/Karp dynamic: [37:29–40:24]
• Karp’s personal background and shift from anti-fascism to new rightward politics: [43:02–47:22]
• Post-Oct 7 “acceleration” of Karp’s shift: [47:22–48:31]
• ICE, immigration, and shifting justifications: [52:24–54:30]
• Brand concerns and meme status: [57:21–62:35]
• Database controversy and surveillance risks: [63:58–66:21]

Final Takeaways

• The US economy is struggling under a combination of real and manipulated headwinds, with the Trump administration obscuring data and pursuing destructive policies (tariffs, harsh immigration) that recall the worst of stagflation.
• Palantir, occupying a pivotal and dangerous role in the machinery of state surveillance, stands as a case study in how tech power, corporate personality, and shifting definitions of “defending the West” can enable undemocratic trends.
• Both segments highlight an era of blurred lines, eroded institutional checks, and the risks of wishful thinking, whether in economic management or surveillance technology—and urge us to consider who holds the levers, and how far they may go.
• Most memorable quote about Palantir and authoritarianism:
  “It was clear from the first Trump presidency that this would be a very powerful tool in the hands of an authoritarian regime. … the risk is tied to who is using the tool and what they're doing with it.” — Tim Miller & Mike Steinberger [66:21]

Episode produced by Katie Cooper; audio engineering/editing by Jason Brown.