The Bulwark Podcast
Episode: David French: MAGA Is Bleeding Numbers
Date: December 11, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: David French (NYT opinion columnist, co-host of Advisory Opinions)
Episode Overview
This episode dives into the state of contemporary conservatism, the legal and democratic challenges posed by Trumpism, and the internal turbulence within the Republican Party. Tim Miller is joined by David French for a wide-ranging conversation focusing on recent Supreme Court cases, the worrying rise of authoritarian impulses in the American right, MAGA's continued radicalization, and the disturbing influence of conspiracy theories and toxic online personalities.
Supreme Court & The Reach of Presidential Power
[01:23–16:05]
- FTC Case & The Unitary Executive
- The Supreme Court heard arguments in Trump v. Slaughter, questioning presidential firing powers over executive branch officials, specifically those leading hybrid agencies like the FTC.
- French describes these agencies as problematic “entrenched bureaucracy... not really accountable, purely accountable to the President, not purely accountable to Congress, not really accountable to the people.” [02:21]
- He warns that a broad ruling could dangerously empower the presidency, but expects a narrower outcome: “I think what’s happening is they’re going to give all presidents more power over the executive branch, but also make the executive branch less powerful...” [06:21]
- Risks of Politicizing Bureaucracy
- Miller and French worry about the implications for independent agencies like the Fed and public health commissions, seeing a move toward politicization and unaccountable firings.
- French underscores, “Where I really, really part company with the Trump administration is... they’re firing civil service protected prosecutors, for example, creating a reign of terror up and down the ranks...” [09:28]
- On the Fed’s Independence
- French draws a distinction: “The Fed is seen as something different, a legacy of the second bank in the United States. It is not an executive agency purely in the way that the FTC is...” [13:44]
Broader Threats: Authoritarian Tools & Targeting Critics
[18:27–24:12]
- Domestic Terrorism Memo
- Miller raises a leaked memo showing the administration seeking lists of groups with “extreme views in favor of mass migration” or “radical gender ideology,” as potential domestic terrorists.
- French says, “This memo... is like absurd and un-American and like crazy. Like, the FBI would target... groups that are politically opposed to this administration.” [19:10]
- On administration intent: “This is the first administration in my lifetime where you say it could be worse than my actual worst case scenario.” [21:10]
- Chilling Effect on Free Speech
- French notes the administration’s double standard and the risk of religious groups being targeted for ministering to migrants, “We’ve seen Paxton... target nonprofits, religious nonprofits founded by Catholics who minister to people... one of the most basic and elementary Christian commands...” [23:00]
Rule of Law vs. Cruelty: The Venezuela War & Military Ethics
[25:51–34:48]
- Moral Erosion of the US Military
- French critiques Trump’s “new” military ethos, contrasting it with Western traditions of the law of war: “Do we want a military like the Russian military?... it’s a less effective military than ours, it’s a less competent military than ours, and it’s a far more brutal military than ours.” [26:22]
- He describes practical tactical benefits of humane military conduct, referencing WWII and his own Iraq deployment.
- No Serious Defense for Current Escalation
- The rationale for brutal tactics, French says, seems to be, “by liberating itself from the law of war... the Trump administration is trying to deter drug smuggling. That by taking off the gloves, it’s going to deter drug smuggling.” [31:58]
- French undermines this logic, recalling past failed interdiction programs and the imprecision/inaccuracy inherent in such actions.
- On Targeted Killings and Civil Liberties
- The discussion highlights the dangers of further empowering state spying, including reviewing foreigners’ social media histories — “utterly unamerican... might as well be China.” [35:28]
Free Speech: “Worse Than the Red Scare”?
[36:00–40:45]
- The administration has appropriated free speech rhetoric “to pull in a lot of... anti woke heterodox sorts” but implemented policies reminiscent of (or worse than) 20th-century state censorship.
- French relates a conversation with a First Amendment scholar: “I said, my own view is that the current environment for free speech is worse than the Red Scare, but not as bad as the Wilson administration... [he] said, no, I think it’s worse than Wilson.” [38:25]
- The memo targeting “domestic terrorism” also lands uncomfortably close to tactics MAGA employs against their own political opponents. “This is one of the most aggressively intimidating political movements I’ve ever seen in my entire life, certainly in the United States in my adult lifetime.” [40:45]
MAGA in Retreat: Declining Numbers & GOP Turmoil
[42:16–51:25]
- Electoral Weakness
- French reports a notable GOP underperformance in Tennessee's 7th, with Republican margins dropping by 13 points against a “poor fitting” Democrat.
- Rise of the “New Entrants”
- Based on the Manhattan Institute poll, Miller and French delineate between “core” Republicans (pre-MAGA, churchgoing, country club-types) and “new entrants” (more conspiratorial, populist—often with different backgrounds).
- “The Magaverse, which used to be really, truly much more of an online phenomenon... that wave has crashed all over the country.” [46:07]
- Intra-Party Civil Wars
- In places like Tennessee and the South, the MAGA/“Moms for Liberty” faction is routing the more moderate, establishment local Republicans; elsewhere, establishment pushback sometimes gains ground (e.g., locally in Williamson County), but it’s an exception.
- “You fast forward to now and the whole thing is flipped. The bulk of the room are the people with the crazy ideas... and a lot of the normies are the ones at the edges...” [51:26]
- 2024 Outlook
- French suggests that if current trends continue—especially if Democrats run moderates—GOP losses could deepen, with “some pretty surprising flips in this next cycle.” [52:45]
Conspiratorial Culture: Tucker, Candace, and the Tates
[54:30–63:05]
- Mainstreaming of Paranoia
- Tucker Carlson is mainstreaming conspiracy theories, similar to Candace Owens, even as their reach grows and they cultivate influence among GOP leaders.
- On Carlson’s sincerity: “We’re way past the point of saying this is all an act. If it’s an act, it’s one of the best acting jobs I’ve ever seen in my entire life...” [56:14]
- The phenomenon spreads: “You... encounter an incredibly normie... homeschool mom... peel one inch below the layer of normality, and you’ve got the wildest conspiracies underneath.” [57:53]
- The Andrew Tate Episode
- Reporting on how the Trump administration intervened to help the misogynist “manosphere” Tate brothers escape Romanian justice, French sees a pattern: “You have a Chinese crypto billionaire pardoned... A former Honduran elected official... after he trafficked hundreds of tons of cocaine—blowing up low level drug mules but pardoning the drug lord... The only consistent theme is they had friends on the inside.” [60:01]
- On Barron Trump interacting with the Tates: “It really does... prove the lie to the notion that... these guys are speaking to just struggling men, struggling young men, alienated young men... Barron Trump... is none of those things.” [61:27]
- Moral: The “manosphere” is not helping the needy but radicalizing and rewarding some of the worst elements in society.
Notable Quotes
-
On the Supreme Court’s Dilemma:
“We’re at what I would say, a fork in the road. Think of it as... the good place or the bad place.”
— David French [03:58] -
On Firing Civil Servants:
“They’re firing civil service protected prosecutors, for example, creating a reign of terror up and down the ranks... That is beyond any sort of unitary executive theory that is mainstream on the right. That’s turning it to 11 to use the Spinal Tap reference.”
— David French [09:28] -
On MAGA Radicalization:
“You fast forward to now and the whole thing is flipped. The bulk of the room are the people with the crazy ideas... and a lot of the normies are the ones at the edges...”
— David French [51:26] -
On the Manosphere’s Influence:
“What these people are doing... they are sort of sending out into this call of the wild, a beacon for all your angry, you know, exploitive, vicious men and then urging them to double down on all the worst elements of their nature.”
— David French [61:56] -
On the State of Free Speech:
“I think when you look at the depth and breadth of what’s happening, it’s worse than the Red Scare.”
— David French [39:46]
Memorable & Surreal Moments
- Spinal Tap Reference on turning up presidential power – “that’s turning it to 11.” [09:28]
- On Tech Moguls and “Free Speech” – “the ketamine crazed tech lords” getting suckered into MAGA. [36:00]
- Magaverse’s Local Takeover: vivid anecdotes of establishment Republicans needing security over working for Pfizer. [49:00]
- Conspiracy Theory Absurdity: Miller jokes about drugs “finding a way—like Jeff Goldblum,” poking fun at futile drug war rationales. [32:32]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 01:23 – Intro to Supreme Court & Trump v. Slaughter Case
- 09:28 – Civil service firings and the “reign of terror”
- 19:10 – Memo on targeting "domestic terrorists" for political opposition
- 26:04 – Morality, military honor, and the Venezuela campaign
- 31:58 – Shaky rationalizations for lethal force abroad
- 35:28 – US to check social media histories of foreign visitors
- 38:25 – Free speech environment compared to historic lows
- 46:07 – Local GOP civil wars and party realignment
- 51:26 – Room full of conspiracy theorists: party grassroots transformation
- 54:30 – Tucker, Candace, conspiratorial culture on the right
- 60:01 – The Trump admin’s 'friends on the inside' foreign policy
Closing Thoughts
French and Miller paint a picture of a Republican Party increasingly dominated by conspiracy, grievance, and authoritarian leanings, now losing its electoral edge and perhaps—eventually—its grip on American political life. Their exchange offers both a warning and a note of hope, pointing out that “the whole thing is starting to pull apart at the seams” and hinting at surprises in 2026.
Final exchange:
“David French, thank you as always, man...”
“Always great to talk to you.” [63:05]