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- [00:00]
A
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D
Hello and welcome to the Bull Work podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. Happy Memorial Day. We've got an abbreviated edition of our usual Monday podcast for, you know, those of you on long road trips with your family and you want to disassociate and just hang out with us instead, or people that just want to celebrate the holiday by paying attention to our insane news cycle. And since it's Monday, I'm here with Bill Kristol. How are you doing, Bill?
- [01:41]
E
Fine. How are you, Tim?
- [01:43]
D
I am doing well. I'm doing well, all things considered. Why don't we just get to it here? A lot of updates on the state of play with regards to Iran since we were last together on Friday. On Saturday, Trump announced that we're basically on the cusp of a deal. A deal is essentially done. 95% there. A lot of ballyhoo, a lot of backpatting among Trump himself. But his allies, the pro war allies, were pretty horrified by the rumors coming out about the deal. And so since then, things have started to unwind a little bit. On Sunday, there was a massive spin effort to push that there would be dust for dollars. There'd be no dollars without nuclear dust. They were calling all their allies, making sure they knew that and that there'd be no toll on the strait. And this morning, Monday, Iran is saying that they aren't charging a to strait, but they are charging an environmental protection fee, which shows that the Iranians have learned a lot from the liberal bureaucratic nomenclature of the West. So, anyway, that's the state of play we're at now. Bill, what's your sense of things?
- [02:51]
E
Trump desperately wants a deal. The Iranians know that and are twisting the knife a little. But also, I think, as you can see, with the environmental fee thing giving him enough cover so that Trump will end up with a deal that'll be murky, more even than these deals often are, and we'll see what really happens in terms of the nuclear material, in terms of opening the strait. But I think we're heading towards, I mean, we've been heading towards the deal for a while. I think some of us have thought it was going to happen for a long, long time. Trump has basically announced he wants a deal. I mean, the degree to which he can bluster a little bit and put up memes of, I don't know, US Bombing Iran or decimating places or Iran with an American flag. But at the end of the day, he wants out. And I guess he'll get out. I think he will get out.
- [03:34]
D
It's interesting, I noticed you were posting about this over the weekend. We had a initial, quite angry reaction from the Mark Levins of the world, Lindsey Graham, fdd, the major backers of the Trump war effort, who felt like this was basically a disaster and a betrayal. As the hours go on, we're going through the same thing that happened after every Trump disaster, January 6th, et cetera, where they all start, look at the bright side, spin things for Trump. What's your sense of that development? Is he going to be able to get people to circle the wagons like usual? Or is there something different about the Iran situation?
- [04:18]
E
I mean, if you were a serious Iran hawk, let's say, who was going along with this, not because you were loyal to Trump, but because you believed in certain things and certain outcomes were important. You're not getting any of those outcomes, really. You're not getting regime change in Iran or liberation for the Iranian people. Obviously, Trump gave up on that very early. You're not getting a clear and unambiguous resolution of the nuclear issue, which Trump sort of defaulted to as his rationale for the war. And if you're more of a traditional international order type of internationalist, you're not getting, I don't think, clarity on passage through the strait. You're not getting any kind of emphatic reiteration of a right that these are international waters, so forth. You're getting Iran, probably sort of, as you just said, no, no toll. But maybe some environmental fees and plus reminding everyone, at least sotto voce, that they do have the ability to close the thing if they want to. And it might be a good idea for some governments to negotiate with them to make sure their ships get through. So you're not getting any of the things you really care about, the nuclear issue, the strait, or the fate of the Iranian regime. So if you're an honest hawk, you need to say this deal is a defeat for the U.S. now, you might still say, as we've said, I think that better. And defeat that doesn't risk more than an escalation, that risks US lives and destruction of the energy infrastructure in the Gulf and a million other things. But you've got to say the whole thing's been a defeat. And what strikes me is that as you say on what would it have been maybe Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, some of the Trump supporting hawks were being honest hawks. I predicted then, and I think I still predict that by tomorrow the Trump supporting hawks will 80% be Trump supporters and they'll abandon their actual principled objections to not abandon, but will certainly mute their objections to this deal. And also we'll put a happy face on it, don't you think?
- [06:07]
D
Yeah. I just don't know that it's going to be quite as vociferous and quite as all in lockstep as it has been in the past for a couple reasons, because you have a the opposite end of the hawks, the America first crowd that I think will probably want to crow that they were right about all of this. So you'll have some wing within the Trump coalition that will not be trying to spin this shit sandwich into a chocolate cake. I think that they're gonna just say what they have said throughout the whole time and then I think there'll be a little bit of a mix among the hawks. This goes back to the big theme of last week where Trump wins his revenge tour in these primaries with Cassidy, Cornyn and Massie, but maybe loses the broader battle because he angers enough of the old school Republicans that they're not as excited to get in line. And you've seen this with Tillis over the week. He was on TV really bashing Trump. So that kind of crowd, McConnell, Tillis, to the extent that I don't know how important they are really, but I do think there'll be some on the hawk wing also that criticizes them. So Lindsey Graham's gonna come around and say whatever Trump wants that he can still get invited into the golf cart. I wrote a book about that. So he'll come around. But I do think that there are some fractures that was caused by this that were significant. And I think part of the continued version of that is the strait and the cost of gas prices today to about 90 bucks a barrel, which is on the high end of acceptable, I guess, but it could still go back up again. Who knows how long this goes, this period of negotiation that we're still in getting that last so called 5%. The New York Times is a big piece this morning. Even if a deal is finalized, the pre war status quo and upward of 130ships transited the strait each day would be weeks or even months away. There's a lot of logistical issues that still need to be ironed out and gas prices are still really high. I think there's going to be persistent negative impacts from this second order effects that are going to create problems for a while. And I think that also makes it a little harder for him to just get everybody to get on board after January 6th. Anybody who's living their life in America wasn't really experiencing any negative impacts of January 6th. It was this attack on the democracy, this esoteric, like people are still going to be feeling negative impacts here. So I do think that's different.
- [08:35]
E
No, I think that's an important point. And I also think this is going to be a real deal that's going to finalize things and then we could all go back to normal maybe with somewhat higher gas prices just because they still, you know, that's the after effect, as you say, of the strait. Haven't been closed all this time. It's going to be murky and they're going to be, the Iranians are going to want to flex their muscles. So six weeks from now, after everything has settled down, the Iranians will deny passage to someone or you know, find an excuse to do something to remind people that they have control. So I agree it doesn't go back to normal. The prices don't go down to where they were because of the risk factor in the strait. The nuclear negotiations are totally, so far as one can tell, unsettled. Could be hiccups or more than hiccups there. Trump can't credibly, I don't think threaten the use of force much, maybe a bombing or something. But he's not going to move troops back there after, after this thing gets sort of resolved here in the next few days, I think. So that leverage that he has had goes away. Israel, I guess retains that leverage, doesn't go away, but it's lessened. Israel retains that leverage. I'm very struck by one thing. Trump's trying to sell the deal or sweeten the deal by invoking out of nowhere honestly the Abraham Accords, which are like entirely different thing which and suddenly it's like, you know what this is kind of part of he knows the Abraham Accords are vaguely popular here to the degree people know what they are and regarded vaguely as successful. Though one could have a separate discussion about have they actually lessened war or tensions or instability in the Middle East. But anyway they were okay, let's put it and seemed like a success. So he's desperately trying. I'm going to get those other nations to be part that aren't yet part of the Abraham Accords to be part of those accords. We'll see. I mean Saudi Arabia is not going to join the Abraham Accords without a resolution war resolution of the Palestinian issue. They've been totally clear about that. Egypt has its own peace treaty with Israel. They don't feel like they need to be told to be part of some accord with a bunch of Gulf states. I mean I, I'm pretty dubious that
- [10:25]
D
any of that Pakistan. Why is Pakistan do we really want
- [10:28]
E
Pakistan which doesn't recognize Israel now will Pakistan as a favorite of Trump who's now their buddy and maybe just a favor to China in turn, which could get favors from Trump, you know, recognize Israel conceivably or sort of join the quote, join whatever that means even it's not like the Abraham Accords are like NATO. What are you joining? You know what I mean? They say they're well disposed to them and want to have talks about it. Sure. So there might be a little bit of cobbling of Trump here, but it is striking that someone told him remember those Abraham Accords. That's kind of one of your achievements. So suddenly it's and then at the end didn't he one of those truth social posts saying you know what, it'd be good if Iran joined Abraham Accords. It's like you could only imagine the faces of the Gulf states in Israel at that point.
- [11:08]
D
I mean on the Israel side of it and it seems like this is attempted a pot sweetener for them for Trump because what didn't mention was over the weekend reports were that Bibi and folks in Israel were unhappy with the contours of the deal. And so that's like a wild card in the situation. Obviously Israel has more acute security concerns than we do in this situation. And so maybe something might come up that would make Israel decide that they do want to attack Lebanon again, or Iran again, for that matter, and how that impacts the deal. And that's certainly possible in a wild card. But the reporting on the Abrahamic call, I guess Trump was on a call with all of his new friends Pakistan, Qatar, uae, Saudi and kind of made this pronouncement last night. And one of the reports from an Israeli news source said that the ultimatum was met with literal silence. The Arab leaders were so stunned by the audacity of the request that Trump had to break the silence himself. So, you know, we'll see what happens with that. One thing I've been noticing as I get older is that I'll wake up after like a pretty casual night of drinking, maybe one or two glasses of wine, and still feel not the best the next day. I feel like even if I do everything right, have enough to eat, drink water, get to bed, you know, I'm just still not 100 the next day our friends at CheersHealth are here to help with their Restore After Alcohol aid. It helps you sleep better after a couple of drinks and you get back to normal the next day. You take Cheers after your last drink or before bed, and then it works while you sleep. Their claim to fame is you feel 50% better or you get your money back, so you wake up feeling like you drank roughly half the amount. Cheers Restore helps you metabolize alcohol more efficiently and supports overall liver health. Most people think dehydration is why you feel bad, but the real issue is what happens in your brain and liver while you sleep. Alcohol creates a toxic byproduct in your liver that your body has to process to clear your system. Cheers supports your liver so that it can process alcohol more quickly and it even helps your brain rebound faster, which is the most important thing for me since I got a podcast for you. I don't need any brain frog because had a couple glasses of wine. So take Cheers Restore after your last drink or before you go to bed and wake up feeling at least 50% better or your money back. For a limited time, our listeners are getting 20% off their entire order by using code the bulwark@cheershealth.com just head to cheershealth.com and use code the bulwark for 20% off. After you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you Just for kicks on the spin of all this. I saw this video going around this weekend. I want to share it because you know, people that listen to this show, I mean, how often do we put on the hair shirt Bill? And you and I are very, very happy to discuss our mistakes and bad predictions. You know, the, the policy of radical candor. This gives you a little insight into what is happening inside the, you know, MAGA propaganda sphere. This is a guy with a relatively popular podcast named Dave Rubin. And so I want to put together a highlight reel of his predictions and comments on the war over the course of the last few months. And I think it tells us a little bit about the question of whether Trump will have people still spinning for him after this deal is done. Let's listen to Dave Rubin's take on the war.
- [14:33]
F
Everything that the media is now going to say about Iran's going to close the Strait of Hormuz and energy prices are going to go crazy, and all these, none of this is going to come to pass. Gas prices are coming down and will continue to come down. If the United States wants to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, which it does. And Donald Trump said, we'll escort ships through if we have to. It's going to stay open. This is the leader of the Iranian opposition. He has been in exile. His name is Reza Pahlavi. We have shown you videos of him before. He's the eldest son of the former Shah of Iran, and he likely is the next leader of Iran. For decades, they will study how this incredible war took place, that we are hitting critical infrastructure, we are damaging the regime. So hopefully the people will be able to take over their country.
- [15:19]
D
There's a whole nother minute of it, but I think you get the gist. I just miss after miss after miss. And it is, it's kind of remarkable that people still tune back in, I guess, for a show like that. But he has nice suit jackets.
- [15:32]
E
I wonder what you'll say that. I don't follow him, to be honest, but I wonder what he'll say this week. Do you think he. Is he one who will say, oh, this didn't work out? Or is he one who will say, no, okay, it's worked out. It's worked out.
- [15:42]
D
Oh, yeah, they'll study it for generations. The deal that Trump did, the deal was so beautiful. It was the best deal ever. You can just see what kind of impact you can have with only minimal loss of life. Think about how long the Vietnam War was compared to this. I think you'll get all that. My last thing on this, though, I just want to run into a couple other topics, and you mentioned this, but I just think it's worth just really sticking on it. If you look at the original goals set out by the administration, complete and total surrender was what Trump said as what he was calling for with Iran. They wanted regime change to get rid of the Khomeini family and the IRG state, as you mentioned, they wanted freedom for the Iranian people. After all of those obviously weren't going to happen. The Rubio and Hegseth line really switched to, we want to, you know, limit or end their ability to project power in the region, you know, through their proxies, through their ballistic missile program. And, you know, we want to make sure that they cannot, you know, attack allies in the region. All of those are off the table now. Like, not even. We're not even close to achieving any of those. The last thing that they now have felt fallen back on is this nuclear material. And that's like, basically the only one of the original goals that they even could plausibly have a positive outcome on. And we'll see if that's even possible.
- [17:05]
E
And they seem to be getting ready to relax. Sanctions, give Iran back a lot of frozen assets. Give them frozen assets in a much greater quantity than Obama notoriously did in his deal. And they're hoping to reopen the strait, which was open and truly open without any tolls or any nonsense about other fees for decades before that, before we began this advent. So, I mean, how can one say we haven't lost quite a substantial amount of ground? I mean, this is even. Not even talking about the broader effects around the world of our allies, lack of confidence in us and so forth. I mean, it's a pretty disastrous thing, Honestly, for the U.S. i say this without. Obviously, that's bad. On the other hand, Trump deserves all the blame for it because guess what? This was not a war that was authorized by Congress. This is not a war that had bipartisan support. This is not a war that they made a case to the country about. And then it turns out the case wasn't quite what people hoped it would be. This is Trump's war.
- [17:59]
B
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- [18:45]
D
All right, I want to run through a couple other headlines. I want to flag this story about the continued weaponization of the DOJ for one reason in particular. Federal investigators are serving subpoenas to left wing streamer Hasan Piker and the Code Pink co founder Medea Benjamin as part of a probe into their aid convoys to Cuba earlier this year. They've gone to Cuba to bring aid after we started the blockade. Piker says that before his trip to Cuba, he cleared it with the Office of Foreign Assets Control. Piker and Benjamin say the travel came as an authorized category of providing aid to Cubans and they stayed in a hotel allowed under US Regulations. Interestingly, there have been some MAGA influencers like Nick Shirley that went to Cuba and stayed in hotels that are sanctioned. But I bring this up because these guys, this stuff is not an accident. They do this on purpose. And it takes me back to the John Bolton thing. And one thing that we always were saying when they went after John Bolton was they pick enemies that they think that they can go after without blowback. Right? And that's a Comey too, you know, Jim Comey, not a lot of friends. John Bolton, not a lot of friends. Piker and Benjamin, you know, they have their, you know, friends on kind of the anti war left, but in the Democratic establishment, you know, you think they figure these guys don't want to be tied to them and you're not going to see Chuck Schumer or whatever going aggressively to their defense. And so I just think that's why it's important to talk about. They've been doing this mostly targeting, you know, foes and, you know, either never Trumper types or, you know, going after people that had been in the administration and were, you know, the Miles Taylors of the world, the Chris Krebs turncoats, you know, or kind of the people that were going directly at Trump on the, on the various investigations. And like this is kind of a new category of people. But it's in the same vein of what they're trying to do and it's totally unacceptable.
- [20:43]
E
My only footnote to that would be I was struck they're Going after people for going to Cuba. I mean, a lot of people have been going to Cuba for the last months and years, including under Trump. I believe his own CIA director was there talking to the Cubans, wasn't it, a week ago or something like that. I mean, they're all trying to work out, I suppose, some kind of quasi regime change allah Venezuela and Cuba. In any case, this is part, don't you think, of the ratcheting up of this support here at home for we need to do something about Cuba. I mean, Rubio said several times in the last two weeks, Cuba is a national security threat to the U.S. it's like really? Well, there have been a lot of National Security Council meetings in the last two years, the last 10 years, about the Cuban threat. Maybe I missed that somewhere. You know, once he accepts whatever crummy deal he's going to accept on Iran, I do think Cuba is right in the crosshairs. Maybe this is a little bit of groundwork laying for that.
- [21:33]
D
Absolutely. Yeah. No, I think this is a two pronged thing. One, it's again, they're trying to go after people that they, you know, think that it's politically beneficial to go after using the Justice Department, which is just their M.O. the total weaponization of the Justice Department to go after foes. And in this case also. Yeah, that predicate and continuing the drumbeat on Cuba, which feels inevitable. And I think that the end of this Iran thing, if you just think about it from a psychological perspective, like they're going to feel like they need a cleaner win and they're going to try to move into Cuba. That feels inevitable to me. I do want to mention the continued Trump health issues that we're just not getting a lot of information about. He is tomorrow expecting to undergo his third scheduled medical checkup in 13 months at Walter Reed. They say it's a scheduled follow up to the last time he was there, where he received the CT scan, but they won't tell us what it was for and they didn't tell us he got a CT scan. It kind of leaked out afterwards. In addition to the three trips to Walter Reed, he's also had the two dental visits in Florida that he said to do. Five visits. That's a lot in 13 months. I don't know, Bill, how many times have you been to the doctor? The last 13 months go more often,
- [22:41]
E
but I think maybe once less than 5. And also I don't have a medical office in my basement here in McLean which is quite well equipped and very capable doctors. And people will come to the White House to attend to you too, from Walter Reed. So it is pretty striking.
- [22:58]
D
You know, the bruises on the neck, the hands. He isn't looking good. It's meaningful in part because of the concerns I about given what is happening with Iran and like the high stakes they're trying to overcompensate with like Stephen Chung. Your friend Stephen Chung's in the White House going, Trump worked today from 8 until 9 and it's like, well, yeah, I mean we're trying to end a war that we started with Iran. Like that's kind of what you got to do is work if you're going to try to do that. And so like the high stakes of that with his diminishment is noticeable, I guess and concerning and alarming and psychologically
- [23:34]
E
this is an abstiner discussed this with me about a month ago and she's very shrewd about this. Does it make him more extreme and more risk taker? To the degree there's a little bit of a mortality sense or a little bit of a sense, let's just say that maybe he's not well enough to run again in two years. I do think if that if the running again in two years is there in a big way, it probably makes them a little more politically sensitive to public opinion. However many votes they can steal and intimidate. All that, if it's really kind of a all in, this is the moment, whatever. I think it's a little dangerous given his psyche. I don't know who knows about his
- [24:07]
D
psyche, but same I do too.
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- [25:26]
D
Lauren Egan Last night our colleague wrote about a list, I guess that is circulating among Democratic operatives for replacing Ken Martin. You know, among the names on there, my guy Beto o', Rourke, former heads of like the SEIU and and Emily's list. Ben Wickler, who is Wisconsin chair who ran against Ken Martin and lost narrowly and has said he wants nothing to do with this disaster. So I think that's more of a wish casting list. Does this matter to you? Like what do you think the state of play is with Ken Martin?
- [26:00]
E
He did bungle that autopsy thing pretty badly and then having bungled it, bungled it some more battery. I didn't follow it very closely but it was so with ludicrous. He released but they released it hurriedly with all kinds of errors and it wasn't really. He didn't want to release it. So it wasn't an official release. It was like I mean just as a basic, I mean the one thing the DNC for all their maybe not mattering ultimately about how many seats you and they presumably have communications professionals there who know how to release a report in a timely manner and go through it for typos. I don't know. I guess not. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know.
- [26:30]
D
The money thing I think is to me, I look at all this and it's like that's the one thing that does matter, which is the Republicans are raising a bunch more money, particularly at the national committee level. You can understand why people wouldn't want to give money to the DNC right now. Some of that is unfair, some of that is their fault. But the kind of finger pointing on all that ultimately doesn't matter. The reality is Democrats need the resources to compete. The House and Senate have their own fundraising committees, so this matters more in state races and down ballot and also just broader efforts that that lift all boats registration, et cetera. To me, it doesn't really even have anything to do with Ken Martin personally. I've never met Ken Martin. I don't know. Who knows, maybe this has been unfair the way he's been treated I don't know. But it's like at this point you just need somebody in there that can bring confidence back so that the committee can raise the money they need. And I would just like, why not just hire somebody in the vein of Beto or whoever that can go onto tv, you know, be competent that the donors will return their calls. And to me that is like the Prudential move. All right, anything else in politics before we get to some Memorial Day reflections, anything else catching your eye in the Senate or House races?
- [27:47]
E
Has there been anything dramatic? I guess tomorrow is the Texas primary and we will see Paxton defeat Cornyn, presumably. What a fantastic thing it would be after all the drama and everyone conceding if the voters of Texas, Republican voters of Texas. I don't expect this to happen, but still decide, well, what the hell, you know, we'll just stick with Cornyn.
- [28:05]
D
It'll be something I kind of want to see. Cornyn humiliated one I guess thing noteworthy that was on my mind was they started going hard at Talarico. Trump did from the plane from Air Force One that some ad money already going up there to go after Talarico. And so I don't know. I think that's pretty telling to me about their level of concern and I think maybe their hope is a concern about Paxton as well. But maybe the bet is they go and put a bunch of money in trying to paint tellarigo as whatever, an out of touch lefty and they can not have to spend as much in Texas in the end that they can fortify the race. Maybe that's their thinking. But if you go back in time a year and we said, hey, May 25th, Republicans are putting in a bunch of money to go after the Democrat nominee in Texas in the Senate, that would not be a great sign for their midterm chances.
- [29:01]
E
Yeah, it shows you how much things have changed. A year earlier and six, if you even go back four or five months, people would not have believed this possible. So that is striking.
- [29:09]
D
Even when I interviewed Telrik and whenever that was, was that March, two months, three months ago. He's talented, but I was always caveating it. When people asked me about it, I was like, I think it's a long shot. I think it's a bit of a stretch. Alaska seems a little more likely. And I do think the dynamics change pretty significantly.
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- [29:58]
C
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- [30:56]
D
We had in the Bulwark Mark Kirtling and our former colleague Will Silber, you know, writing some Memorial Day reflections. You talked to Michael Wood, friend of the show, former candidate from Congress and and veteran in Texas yesterday in your Sunday conversation. So I'm just hoping between all of that and your life, you can leave us with some Memorial Day wisdom.
- [31:18]
E
My wisdom is that people should read Mark Kirtling's piece and Will Zalbert's piece from a couple of years ago that we put back up on the site and then listen to Michael Wood, who served in Afghanistan in 2010, 2012 Purple Hearts, and the veterans have a different understanding and appreciation, if I can say of Memorial Day than maybe the rest of us or certainly than I think I do, and a deeper understanding of kind of what it means and also that it's not for them just one day. Will Michael Wood made this point to me, you know, it's not. And Mark currently makes this point very eloquently every day. He has on his desk a box with photos of the 230, maybe people who served under his command who were killed in Iraq and He looks at them, opens the box and reflects upon their sacrifice. So for us, honestly, it's more of a perhaps a one day, not one day a year, hopefully. But Memorial Day is sort of special, and it should be special, but for, for, for people who served, it's a more constant thing. I've always thought it's a very moving holiday and a very appropriate holiday. And the way in which we celebrate it, I've always thought is very American in the good sense. I mean, a ceremony at Arlington pre Trump, at least a president giving appropriate memorial remarks, many, many Memorial Day parades and gatherings all around the country without much grandeur, but with a lot of sincerity and people putting flags in cemeteries all around the country. Sort of the opposite, honestly, of Trump's horrible arch.
- [32:46]
D
Yeah. All right, well, shout out much love and appreciation to all the veterans listening and the families of veterans and folks who had loved ones who we lost overseas. Thinking about you today. I am about to end this podcast and head on back to New Orleans so we can get back to regular business tomorrow. So enjoy the holiday. Bill Kristol, thanks for joining me this morning and everybody else, we'll see you back here tomorrow. Peace. The Borg Podcast is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Lutz and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.