The Bulwark Podcast — Episode Summary
Episode: John Heilemann: The Year Is Ending a Lot Better than It Started
Date: December 31, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: John Heilemann
Overview
In this wide-ranging year-end episode, Tim Miller and John Heilemann take stock of the political, cultural, and media landscape as 2025 draws to a close. Reflecting on the dramatic shift in “vibes” from a foreboding start of the year to a more optimistic end, the duo explores Trump’s weakening grip (both politically and culturally), the ongoing issues of corruption and profiteering in his administration, the implications of major media mergers, the nuances of Democratic Party infighting and future directions, and what’s resonating with younger generations in pop culture and politics. The podcast balances in-depth political analysis, irreverent humor, and thoughtful discussion on where American politics and culture might be headed.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Personal Catch-up & Setting the Tone
- [01:18–05:45] The opening minutes are camaraderie-soaked, with Miller and Heilemann trading banter about birthdays, musicals, New Orleans, and casino luck, underscoring how a lighter, more hopeful tone is possible compared to the same time last year.
2. Vibe Shift: From Foreboding to Optimism
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[05:45–06:51] Tim reflects on the anxiety-ridden atmosphere post-2024 election:
“If we had gotten together this time last year, the vibes in your house were not hot… There was a lot of foreboding.” —Tim Miller [05:55]
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[06:51–10:20] Heilemann marks key turning points:
- Public reaction to the Epstein story as the first “chink in Trump’s armor.”
- Internal GOP resistance (e.g., Marjorie Taylor Greene, Nancy Mace) to Trump.
- The cumulative effect of multiple setbacks: aggressive but ultimately failed legal reprisals, bad policy optics (Venezuelan boat strikes), government shutdown.
“He’s appreciably weaker. The cumulative effect of all this is that he’s appreciably weaker.” —John Heilemann [08:34]
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Cultural markers also reflect this shift, notably Dave Chappelle’s prescription to “wait out this orange motherfucker” [09:18].
3. The Declining ‘Trump Aura’ — Cultural & Political
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[10:20–15:34] Discussion of how the Epstein scandal gave cultural figures (“the pod bros, the comedians, sports commentators”) an off-ramp from supporting Trump, “the man.”
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Trump’s inability to control the culture and the moral panics of the right have sapped his energy and his unique “vibe” power.
“When he’s been strong has been about having control over vibes. And when he’s been weaker is when things have gotten away from him... Culture matters more.” —John Heilemann [12:02]
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The right's reaction to Trump's attacks on celebrities like Jimmy Kimmel and Rob Reiner signals a broadening loss of sway, even among former allies.
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Trump now appears tired, less menacing, more focused on self-enrichment than vengeance or populist crusades:
“Watch him. He looks like an old tired man that cares mostly about getting his name on shit and adding to his net worth...” —Tim Miller [15:58]
“He’s just interested in hanging out with rich people and getting his name on stuff and slapping up gold leaf...” —John Heilemann [16:05]
4. Trump’s Corruption and Historical Legacy
- [19:09–24:14] Debate on what will linger from Trump’s administration:
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Open profiteering via meme coins, global business deals, tech mergers.
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Comparing past presidents, Heilemann notes:
“This is the thing you’ve never seen before, the open profiteering off the office. We’ve never seen anything like that.” [22:03]
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The probable enduring legacy: a Trump dynasty of generational wealth, cemented through business and corruption rather than policy or ideology.
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5. Media & Tech Mergers: Market Logic vs. Political Meddling
- [26:35–35:13]
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Miller admits to supporting some industry consolidation for the consumer’s sake, but Heilemann points out that Trump’s willingness to meddle in markets and lavish favors poses significant dangers.
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Paramount’s bid for Warner Brothers Discovery and the Ellison family's expanding media empire are flagged as especially concerning in a Trumpian climate:
“Does seem to be obviously, like, a problem.” —Tim Miller on media concentration [31:00]
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The climate of fear suppresses political commentary across platforms, especially as streaming giants avoid anything politically risky:
“The prevailing view across all these platforms: because they're worried about either regulatory retribution...or lawsuits.” —John Heilemann [34:33]
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YouTube’s burgeoning role as a new media force, especially for politics, is also discussed.
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6. The Politics of Succession: JD Vance & the MAGA Vacuum
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[36:42–51:28]
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Extended riff on the “Clavicular” meme, emphasizing how superficial, online subcultures (looks-maxers, bro-podcasters, alt-right influencers) increasingly shape public perceptions and internal wars on the right.
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JD Vance as a potential presidential nominee—widely disliked, lacking Trump’s “fun,” and charisma. Heilemann doubts Vance’s ability to fill Trump’s shoes even with tactical, inside-game political skills:
“He’s nothing like Donald Trump…can you think of two politicians … more different?” —John Heilemann [45:28]
“There’s none of that … he’s the fun candidate … I don’t see that.” —Heilemann on JD Vance [50:26]
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Miller’s counterpoint compares Vance to George H.W. Bush: a dull successor who may inherit power by default.
7. Left Populism & Democratic Party Futures
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[52:44–61:03]
- The Zoran Mamdani phenomenon (DSA mayor of NYC) signals the Democrats’ own coming generational “overthrow” from the left.
- Heilemann:
“The only people in the Democratic Party with a big set of ideas … are the left.” [54:32]
- The risk is disappointment if Zoran’s radical promises don’t materialize, risking alienating the very voters energized by his campaign.
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Both agree that the base wants big structural change—incrementalism won’t satisfy a rising, alienated, younger electorate.
8. Centrism, McCain, and Unclaimed Reform Ground
- [61:25–65:05]
- Miller posits that a “reformist anti-corruption” lane, à la John McCain's Straight Talk Express, is wide open but not being seized by any Dem.
- Heilemann agrees, suggesting that radical yet plausible reform of American institutions—especially beefing up democratic guardrails—could be politically and substantively powerful.
9. Culture Corner: Rock’s Return and the Year in Music
- [68:10–75:40]
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Miller and Heilemann reflect on their favorite music of the year. The resurgence of guitar-driven bands, specifically Geese and Cameron Winter, signals Gen Z’s yearning for more “tangible” cultural experiences:
“People want there to be a rock star. People want there to be a new Neil Young. … The reaction to those shows … is what’s hopeful.” —Heilemann [74:10–74:43]
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10. New Year’s Resolutions & Closing Thoughts
- [75:36–78:01]
- Both resolve to spend more time together in 2026.
- Heilemann urges Miller (and other daily media hosts) to take breaks for sanity’s (and product quality’s) sake:
“When Tim takes off some days next year … he is doing it for you as much as for himself. You will get a better Tim Miller when you get a more rested… Tim Miller.” —John Heilemann [77:31]
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
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On the shift in political “vibes”:
“It’s a notable vibe shift in my perspective. Are you sensing that 100%?” —Tim Miller [06:25] -
On Trump’s cultural decline:
“Culture matters more… the vibes are kind of almost everything in a lot of ways now, because it is really so much of what Trump has been about.” —John Heilemann [12:02] -
On Trump looking spent:
“Watch him. He looks like an old tired man that cares mostly about getting his name on shit and adding to his net worth...” —Tim Miller [15:58] -
On Trump's profiteering:
“This is the thing you’ve never seen before, the open profiteering off the office. We’ve never seen anything like that.” —John Heilemann [22:03] -
On JD Vance:
“I think with J.D. vance, there’s so much about him that’s unappealing that I think a lot of people will have the kind of reaction Clavicular has, but with just different Terms.” —John Heilemann [44:40] -
On Gen Z and political realignment:
“There’s a whole generation of young people who are really politically homeless right now. They’re more progressive than conservative… they’re the Zoran voter that exists in big cities all over the country.” —John Heilemann [60:35] -
On Democrats and reform:
“You could do radical reform of various institutions … There’s a big wide field for that. I couldn’t tell you why. No one has seized on that as at least part of what they’re doing.” —John Heilemann [64:00]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Opening & Banter: [01:18–05:45]
- Vibe Shift & Trump’s Weakening: [05:45–10:20]
- Cultural Loss of Trump’s Sway: [10:20–15:34]
- Corruption/Profiteering & Legacy: [19:09–24:14]
- Media Mergers & Tech: [26:35–35:13]
- Succession, JD Vance, Clavicular: [36:42–51:28]
- Left Populism, Democratic Future, Zoran: [52:44–61:03]
- Centrism, McCain Model, Reform Lane: [61:25–65:05]
- Music & Culture Corner: [68:10–75:40]
- Resolutions & Closing: [75:36–78:01]
Tone & Style
The conversation is equal parts irreverent, analytical, and accessible. Banter and in-jokes give way to erudite political analysis, delivered with off-the-cuff candor and plenty of showbiz references. The tone is distinctly in keeping with Bulwark’s reality-based, anti-Trump, liberal democratic ethos—sharp, funny, and resistant to both-sideism, with a recurring note of optimism and hope for the coming year.
Summary prepared for those seeking a full picture of the episode’s substantive themes, cultural flavor, and political insights without the ad breaks or non-content sections.