The Bulwark Podcast

Episode: Robert Kagan: We’re Transitioning to a Post-American World
Date: April 3, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Robert (Bob) Kagan, senior fellow at Brookings, contributing writer at The Atlantic, author of Rebellion: How Anti-Liberalism Is Tearing America Apart Again

Episode Overview

In this urgent, far-reaching conversation, Tim Miller welcomes Robert Kagan to assess the U.S.'s drastic shift from global leadership to what Kagan describes as a “rogue superpower” posture, catalyzed by President Trump’s Iran war. Together, they examine the military, diplomatic, economic, and ideological fallout—domestically and internationally—as America’s alliances erode, its credibility wanes, and global power balances shift toward China and adversaries.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflections on the Iran War and Trump’s Leadership

• Bob Kagan recounts warning Miller and others against supporting Trump’s military strike on Iran, emphasizing two main concerns:

  • Domestic implications: The risks of expanded executive power, protest crackdowns, and authoritarian drift at home if a major conflict drags on ([01:56]).
  • Military strategy fallacy: Historical proof that air power alone, without ground invasion, cannot achieve U.S. aims—now visibly failing in Iran ([01:56–05:02]).

  “We have learned before that bombing alone wasn't going to do it...now we've had the most abject demonstration possible...here we are, and I think we're still more losing this war than winning it.” — Bob Kagan ([03:58])

• Miller highlights the inability to trust Trump or his inner circle to act competently or ethically, noting their openness to authoritarian tactics and strategic incoherence ([05:02]).

2. Ethical and Humanitarian Concerns

• Kagan underscores Trump’s lack of interest in the Iranian people, referencing Trump’s infamous boast about “sending [them] back to the Stone Age” ([05:31]).

  “His concern for the Iranian people is something less than zero...I don't know what outcome anybody ever expected him to accomplish in this situation.” — Bob Kagan ([05:31])

• Discussion of the U.S. shifting to targeting civilian infrastructure (such as the B1 bridge near Tehran), a move described as akin to war crimes and reminiscent of Putin’s Ukraine strategy ([08:27]).

  “Now the strategy...will be to make [the Iranian people] suffer as much as possible and bring about...state failure.” — Bob Kagan ([09:00])

3. The War’s (Lack of) Strategic Rationale

• Miller and Kagan highlight that despite unprecedented bombing, Iran’s regime remains intact and resistance hardened. Hardliners control the government; diplomatic prospects are bleak ([10:23–11:46]).
  • Kagan: U.S. strategy is not coherent and now appears to aim for “state failure” rather than regime change.

4. Eroding Alliances and America’s Global Isolation

• Kagan laments the breakdown of traditional alliances:
  • The U.S. has “ended” its NATO alliance, is forfeiting influence in the Persian Gulf to powers like China, and is pushing Asian allies toward self-reliance and nuclearization ([12:24–14:09]).

  “We are, as a result of this, a very, very lonely country without allies. So that doesn't seem...to be a great triumph.” — Bob Kagan ([12:54])

5. Global Power Shifts and the "Post-American World"

• Kagan details how U.S. retrenchment is accelerating global instability and empowering adversaries:
  • Destruction of NATO: “We've given Putin the greatest prize...the destruction of NATO. That is what he's been seeking for 20 years.” ([14:09])
  • China’s gain: U.S. withdrawal lets China back Iran in controlling vital chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential shift to transacting in Chinese yuan threatens the petrodollar and American financial dominance ([14:09–17:01]).
  • The U.S. may lose its position as the “dominant player” in the Gulf, becoming “one of several players, maybe...we will basically have lost our influence in the region” ([16:22]).

6. Revisiting America’s Historical Role—and the Vacuum Left Behind

• Kagan and Miller discuss why the U.S. ever intervened in the Middle East:

  • Original rationales were global order and alliance security, not direct energy or security needs.
  • With Trump’s America First turn, those justifications and actual alliance defense “are gone”—leaving the rationale for current war muddled ([17:01–22:35]).

  “No one in the region, including Iraq in 2003 or Iran today, ever posed a direct threat to the security of the American homeland.” — Bob Kagan ([20:27])

• Even supposed motives like support for Israel now appear increasingly transactional and self-serving for Trump ([22:35–25:42]).

7. Implications for Asia and the Future of Nuclear Weapons

• South Korea, Japan, and India, unconsulted and now imperiled by energy crises, are contemplating militarization and distancing from U.S. support ([30:48–32:35]).

  • Kagan: U.S. unreliability will force allies to go nuclear, especially as Japan cannot align with China and must secure its independence.

  “That is the biggest picture of all...we are losing all our alliances...It is becoming popular in other countries to attack the United States for good reason.” — Bob Kagan ([32:35])

• Widespread public opinion in allied countries now shifting against the U.S. due to the collateral impact of Trump’s actions ([32:35–34:11]).

8. Economic Fallout: De-dollarization

• Kagan affirms that if Gulf oil is traded in yuan instead of dollars, it further erodes the U.S.’s leverage and global economic standing ([35:04]).

9. U.S. Strategic Limits and Reluctance to Accept Risk

• On re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, Kagan notes:
  • Technically, the U.S. could do it militarily. However, “not at any risk we are willing to pay for it” ([35:10]).
  • Ground invasion is the only decisive strategy, but no appetite exists for such intervention anymore.

10. NATO’s Demise and the Republican Establishment’s Shift

• Widespread break with the “Reagan wing” of the GOP: Even traditional Republican foreign policy voices rapidly embrace anti-NATO, isolationist stances ([37:40–42:08]).

  “A core principle of Reagan foreign policy...was that the European and Asian alliances are at the core of Americans grand strategy. And now...they are coming out against NATO.” — Bob Kagan ([37:40])

• Trump did not consult allies, making their non-cooperation inevitable. The Administration now scapegoats Europe for U.S.-provoked chaos ([39:43–41:41]).
  • Examples highlighted include Peter Meijer’s blaming of Macron instead of the U.S. president ([41:41]).

11. Empowerment of Adversaries

• Trump’s Iran war enriches and strengthens Russia, already contending in Ukraine, and distracts and debilitates Western resolve ([43:22–44:02]).

12. Cultural & Domestic Political Reflections

• Miller plays a viral clip of pro-Trump influencer Sneako now calling for Trump’s impeachment over the Iran disaster, a sign even “smooth brains understand what is happening here” ([45:31]).

  “If he's not impeached, then we are a failure as a country...I’m more vindicated every day.” — Sneako ([45:43])

• Kagan laments that even the Wall Street Journal lauds Trump’s unhinged leadership, indicating how thoroughly conservative elites have surrendered core principles for Trump ([46:23]).

13. Is the Post-American World Permanent?

• Miller asks if the next Democratic president could rebuild alliances. Kagan is skeptical: the degree of U.S. unreliability has likely created a permanent rupture ([49:26–50:34]).

  “I just don't see how we could go back to the way things were...If I were making long range policy plans...I would not say, 'Oh thank God the Democrats are back.'” — Bob Kagan ([49:26])

• Trust is broken; allies will never again rely on the U.S. exclusively for their defense.

14. Catastrophizing: The Nuclear Threshold

• Miller offers a bleak meditation: Trump and Netanyahu are now, arguably, the world leaders most likely to “go rogue and use a nuke,” far ahead of previous dangers from North Korea or Pakistan ([51:31]).

  “If you asked me right now, April 3rd, I would say probably Donald Trump is most likely to use a nuke, and maybe Bibi is second...I'm not saying it's a 50% chance, but it sure seems a lot higher than it was for all the rest of my life up until this point.” — Tim Miller ([52:21])

• Kagan’s response: U.S. retreat may lead not just to future crises but to escalations up to the nuclear threshold, as adversaries test the limits after extended American withdrawal ([53:14–55:10]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On American strategy collapse:

  “We have learned before that bombing alone wasn't going to do it...now we've had the most abject demonstration possible.”
  — Bob Kagan ([03:58])

• On Trump’s motives:

  “He loves to watch pictures of blowing things up. Maybe that makes him very passionate.”
  — Bob Kagan ([06:30])

• On civilian targeting and war crimes:

  “Trump has announced intention to commit war crimes...attacking the energy grid, that’s an attack on a civilian target. This is what Putin is doing in Ukraine.”
  — Bob Kagan ([08:44])

• On global shift:

  “We are at the beginning of a period in which things that we used to get basically for free...will be severely undermined.”
  — Bob Kagan ([14:09])

• On U.S. allies’ future:

  “The relationship with South Korea is in a total disaster...I don't think we're far away from them basically sort of saying they're going to go nuclear and be on their own.”
  — Bob Kagan ([12:49])

• On Trump’s foreign policy:

  “I don't think [he] plays one dimensional checkers.”
  — Bob Kagan ([25:42])

• On America’s isolation:

  “We are really losing [allies] because now it is becoming popular in other countries to attack the United States for good reason.”
  — Bob Kagan ([32:35])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening: Miller recounts Kagan’s prescience on Iran war — 00:12–01:56
• Kagan on air power fallacy and Trump’s motives — 01:56–06:43
• Civilian infrastructure targeting, war crimes, Iran’s regime hardening — 08:27–11:32
• Loss of allies, global chaos, China’s ascent — 12:24–17:01
• Historical rationale for U.S. engagement in Middle East — 17:01–22:35
• Transactional nature of Trump’s Israel policy — 22:35–26:12
• Asia fallout: nuclearization, de-dollarization — 30:48–35:10
• Strategic risk limits and reluctance to use ground forces — 35:23–36:42
• Breakdown of GOP foreign policy establishment and end of NATO consensus — 37:40–44:19
• Sneako viral impeachment clip — 45:31–46:23
• Why alliances may not recover after Trump — 49:26–50:34
• Nuclear escalation worries, post-American world meditation — 51:31–55:10

Final Reflections

Both Miller and Kagan close on an unvarnished note of alarm: After just one year under Trump’s wartime presidency, the pillars of American global power—NATO, dollar dominance, key alliances—are crumbling. Miller posits Trump as the most likely leader since 1945 to use nuclear weapons, while Kagan warns a “rapid transition to a post-American world” is already underway. Even with a leadership change, America’s reliability, and thus its role as global linchpin, may not recover.

Tone:
Urgent, deeply knowledgeable, and unsparing—critical of Trump and the right’s surrender of principle, worried about democracy, global order, and the long tail effects of U.S. abdication.