The Bulwark Podcast

Episode Title: Sarah Longwell: No One Should Trust this Government
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Sarah Longwell (Publisher of The Bulwark, bestselling author, focus group podcast host)
Date: March 9, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Tim Miller and Sarah Longwell dive headfirst into the new Middle Eastern war and its fallout—especially the effect of skyrocketing gas prices on American life and politics. They critique the Trump administration’s chaotic policymaking and carelessness regarding the war’s impact, discuss shifting American attitudes toward Israel, and reflect on their own changing views. The conversation closes with a discussion of Sarah's upcoming book, How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time, and a look at how to cut through political disinformation and complacency.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Gas Prices as Political Lightning Rod (03:07 – 08:12)

• Gas Prices Skyrocket: War with Iran/Saudi involvement leads to a major surge in oil prices—up to $120/barrel, diesel rising from $3.69 to $4.99/gallon in a week.
• Political Impact: Both note that Americans viscerally feel gas prices, more so than distant wars or even loss of American life, making this a key metric of public sentiment.
  • Sarah: “Gas is just one of those things that every American notices. … People look at gas prices when they drive by… It's a big blazing billboard.” (04:39)
• Downstream Effects: Higher fuel costs drive up the price of everything—from food to plastics, exacerbating inflation, and potentially causing stagnation.

2. Economic Mismanagement & Administration Hypocrisy (08:13 – 11:43)

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Trump’s prior inaction to refill reserves after previously criticizing Biden is highlighted as a strategic error.
• Messaging Contradictions: Trump’s supposed America First stance is totally contradicted by the administration’s attempt to minimize the domestic impact of war:
  • Tim: “[Trump] campaigned… Who cares what’s happening over there? … This bleat on the gas prices is the exact opposite.” (10:35)
  • Sarah: “We can make the hypocrisy arguments until we’re blue in the face… Trump doesn’t care.” (11:43)

3. Unaccountable Leadership and Nihilism (11:44 – 14:51)

• Trump’s World: Trump is insulated by sycophancy—cabinet/officials fawn over him in private, giving “middle ages” court vibes.
• Disregard for Blowback: Trump appears unconcerned with American casualties, gas prices, or public opinion:
  • Sarah: “He doesn’t care about making a case to the American people. … He already won. … He’s a nihilist.” (13:25)

4. Escalation Fears & Nuclear Anxiety (16:21 – 18:05)

• Extreme Scenarios: Even fringe right voices (e.g., Nick Fuentes) highlight Trump’s megalomania—worrying that he wants a “historic” win by escalating even to the point of nuclear use.
  • Tim: “Sometimes maybe the crazy people understand other crazy people’s brains… He wants to do historic things.” (17:06)
  • Sarah: “I don’t think he’ll drop a nuclear bomb”—notes, however, the lack of restraint or traditional political gravity. (18:05)

5. Civilian Casualties and Government Lies (24:02 – 28:52)

• Attack on Iranian School: Confirmed via Bellingcat as a US Tomahawk missile, with Trump denying responsibility and using misleading language.
  • Tim: “In every war, every president, we’ve made mistakes… but the scale of this is notable. … And just the lies… it’s Orwell.” (24:02)
• Moral Difference Eroded: Both reflect on the eroding distinction between American conduct and that of “the baddies,” given policy/PR shifts from the administration.

6. Shifted Trust in Government & Skepticism (28:52 – 33:01)

• Loss of Trust: Sarah bluntly says, “No one should trust this government. This version … isn't trustworthy.” (28:52)
• Right-wing Reactions: Criticism of both official lying and conservative hawks who refuse to update their priors amid new, disturbing realities.
  • Sarah: “…you’d have to be brain dead to not be updating your analysis based on new information.” (32:53)

7. America’s Israel Policy – Rethinking Old Loyalties (33:01 – 44:28)

• Decision to Go to War: U.S. action against Iran framed as a mutual, even subordinate, decision with Israel/Netanyahu, challenging “America First” claims.
• Old Reflexes vs. New Realities: Both reflect on how unwavering support for Israel, rooted in history and values, is being tested by Netanyahu’s leadership and Israeli policy excesses.
  • Sarah: “I feel like an affinity for Israel … but do I trust Netanyahu? … Not at all. These are both corrupt men.” (36:40)
  • Tim: “Israel’s actions, particularly over the last year and a half, have been so gratuitous… We didn't have an imminent threat… Seven Americans are dead now.” (39:13)
• Public Opinion Shifts: Noted increase in skepticism toward Israel—especially among young people and swing voters.

8. Political Implications & Reaction of Voters (50:36 – 55:49)

• Focus Groups: Clips from Sarah’s focus groups reveals deep voter skepticism, connecting war to economic pain, questioning motives, and asking for clear plans.
  • Voter: “If you bombed them the first time… why are we bombing them again? … What’s our gameplan?” (51:07)
• Party Coalitions Fraying: War strains MAGA–America First coalition, especially for younger/independent Trump voters attracted by “no new wars” rhetoric.
  • Sarah: “Younger people just saying, ‘I don’t understand why I can’t say that what Israel is doing is wrong.’” (46:58)

9. Wider Institutional Decay: DHS, TSA, and Lies (55:52 – 57:34)

• Government Lying: In addition to war, administration caught fabricating charges of political violence (Wall Street Journal reporting).
  • Tim: “…one third of the people… they just lied about. … It was just fake, fabricated.” (56:51)
• Shutting Down TSA: Prolonged shutdowns threaten travel, with Democrats encouraged to push for selective funding to put Republicans on the spot.

10. Sarah’s Book: ‘How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time’ (58:39 – End)

• Premise: Tackling the “intractable problem” of Trumpism by listening to voters, understanding their information environments & misperceptions, and learning effective communication.
  • Sarah: “Listening to voters has been for me like cheat code for understanding politics.” (59:09)
  • Discusses the importance of narrative, vibes, and communication strategies for Democrats to reach swing voters and those living “on vibes.”
• Community: Emphasizes building strong, sticky communities similar to the right’s infrastructure.
  • Sarah: “There’s a lot to learn… about how Democrats communicate.” (62:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Sarah Longwell (on gas prices and politics) [04:39]:
  “Gas is just one of those things that every American notices … it is like a big blazing billboard.”
• Tim Miller (on Trump’s contradiction) [10:35]:
  “He campaigned—the fools were the people that cared about world peace... This bleat on the gas prices is the exact opposite.”
• Sarah Longwell (on Trump’s attitude) [13:25]:
  “He doesn’t care … he already won. … Don’t let the nihilism infect you. But the second you realize what a nihilist he is … everything starts to make sense.”
• Tim Miller (on Trump’s decision process) [14:51]:
  “Even in private, they are… treating him like he’s a leader from the Middle Ages, and the serfs have to pay homage…”
• Sarah Longwell (on government trust) [28:52]:
  “No one should trust this government. This version of our government isn’t trustworthy.”
• Sarah Longwell (on old Republican reflexes about Israel) [36:40]:
  “I feel that deeply. And yet I also have to grapple with, again … do I trust Netanyahu? Not at all. These are both corrupt men.”
• Voter (in Focus Group) [51:07]:
  “If you bombed them the first time … what’s our game plan for who’s going to take over now … are we going to ensure they’re not worse than the Ayatollah? Because my fear is it’s going to be a repeat of Saddam and ISIS…”
• Sarah Longwell (on new political communication) [59:09]:
  “Listening to voters has been for me like cheat code for understanding politics.”
• Tim Miller (on reading the book) [65:18]:
  “More people listen to this podcast than will buy the book. I want that not to be true… Go prove me wrong.”

Important Segment Timestamps

• 03:07 – 08:12: Gas prices, economic fallout, political effects.
• 11:43 – 14:51: Trump’s insularity and disregard for consequences.
• 24:02 – 28:52: US strike on Iranian school, government denial, moral distinction.
• 33:01 – 44:28: America & Israel: loyalty, changing opinions, Netanyahu, generational shifts.
• 50:36 – 55:49: Focus group voter reactions; implications for MAGA/“America First” coalition.
• 58:39 – 63:48: Overview and aims of Sarah Longwell's new book.
• 65:18 – End: Book promotion & closing thoughts.

Tone and Language

• Candid, often wry: Hosts are blunt, frequently sarcastic (“Marco, how are things going with the world or the war?”), and comfortable expressing skepticism.
• Analytical but informal: Regularly cite polling, focus group insights, and reference their own emotional reflexes.
• Directly critical: Unflinching in criticisms of both the Trump administration and former conservative allies.

Takeaways

• The war’s economic costs, especially gas prices, have direct and immediate political impacts—potentially more so than casualties or distant foreign policy objectives.
• The Trump administration demonstrates lack of planning, hypocrisy, little concern for public sentiment, and an alarming disregard for transparency and truth.
• The old axis of unwavering Israel support on the American right is fracturing, with public and generational opinion rapidly changing—driven by both actual events and new political coalitions.
• Listening to voters and building engaged communities are critical for cutting through the noise and confronting large-scale political challenges in a dysfunctional media era.

For more, preorder Sarah Longwell’s How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time, and listen to The Bulwark Podcast wherever you get your shows.