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- [00:01]
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- [00:28]
Bill Kristol
Refreshers contain caffeine, foreign.
- [00:43]
Sarah Longwell
And welcome to the bulwark podcast. I'm Sarah longwell sitting in for the one and only Tim miller because he is on summer vacation, which he deserves, don't you worry. Even though Tim is not here, Bill Crystal is. So we're going to do a regular Monday show where we spin through the news. Bill, I want to start first by saying if it looks like I am sweaty, it is not because I'm so nervous to sit in Tim's chair. It's because I am. I'm on a fitness journey now with coach Robbie, and I just worked out. So everybody's just going to have to put up with a little schfitzing for a second.
- [01:16]
Bill Kristol
I didn't even notice. But it's an honor to be on with the one and only Sarah longwell. I mean, Tim miller is every week for sarah longwell. This is. This is something, you know, it's a big upgrade.
- [01:24]
Sarah Longwell
This is. This is a big deal. Did you watch the game last night? The world cup game, the final?
- [01:30]
Bill Kristol
I did, I did.
- [01:31]
Sarah Longwell
Who were you rooting for?
- [01:32]
Bill Kristol
I was sort of, you know, ambivalent going in, but I ended up rooting for Spain because Argentina is a pretty dirty team, I've got to say. And Spain does play kind of beautiful soccer in its own careful and precise but pretty impressive way. So I. I was happy that Spain won. And. Yeah. What about you?
- [01:50]
Sarah Longwell
I was rooting for Argentina. The only way I was. I was thinking about how Americans choose who they're going to root for in a game like this. And I was. I've been asking people and everybody's got their. Like, my wife was rooting for Spain because she studied abroad there. I was rooting for Argentina because evita is my third favorite musical. And you know, that that's all I had. But it led me to get very intense about it. But I. I bring up the world cup because there's. There's some intersection with the news today because we're gonna have to talk about Iran. You know, three service members were killed, possibly four over the weekend. At least two were killed in an iranian attack on a u. S. Air base in Jordan, which has been like, that is our key hub for Air Force strikes against another soldier's missing. And there's a set of unidentified remains. We're in a new phase now in terms of the tensions with Iran. And I saw somebody mention this and it struck me as interesting, which is that now that the World cup is over, that the World cup is actually this moment where tensions tend to ease and that the end of the World cup might signal sort of a flaring of tensions again because the international community is kind of not doing a Kumbaya thing. Is that a crazy thing or does that sound right?
- [03:08]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, I don't know. It's interesting. I hadn't really thought of it that way. I was just struck, and I wrote about this in morning shots by the intersection of world politics in Iran, that Trump played golf Saturday and then I think was at his club in Northern Jersey and then went to the game and sat in his air conditioned box and then came down and it was amazing. The photo that Sarah Rogers pulled for morning shots is fantastic. Trump butts into the ceremony where the head of FIFA, who's kind of a showboat himself, incidentally, but anyway, Trump out, showboats in by butting in and being part of the medal presenting ceremony, which I don't recall is the normal practice of these kinds of events, the president of the host country just invites himself down there, but he's in there putting medals on people and then he's trying to be in the photos. And then finally the FIFA president, the FIFA head says, okay, basically time to go, let them have their celebration. And that's what people want to see, is them being rambunctious. And so he heads off stage, right, and Trump sort of follows him for a bit, but then stops and sort of lurks there awkwardly trying to stay in the photo. And actually the FIFA guy tries to, comes back and tries to kind of, we should probably get off. And he stays there. And there's that fantastic photo of him kind of awkwardly standing on the side as the Spanish players ignore him and have a well deserved celebration. So very Trump like, right. I mean, and then, you know, that he anyway just, I mean, not that he shouldn't go to the World cup just because, just because we're at war. Though other presidents, I would say, might have made that calculation or that decision, especially on a weekend where American service members are killed. But then just the kind of unbelievable, pathetic, really pathetic. You had an excellent tweet this weekend about how pathetic the strong men are that they're so weak. And you really Saw that with Trump, right? He's literally the most famous man in the world. He's President of the United States. He's whatever. He's doing all kinds of bad things, but he's doing them as president. He can get any attention he wants, anytime. But he can't resist butting into the World cup, you know, celebrations of the champions. It's not like the US Team won or it's not like it was the US Team or anything, incidentally. Right?
- [05:11]
Sarah Longwell
Well, Reynolds, this is Spain State. This was, it was crazy watching him try to horn in. It's not like Cash Patel chugging beers with at least what is the American, the USA team. You know, at the Olympics, Trump is just like, no, I'm going to try to do stolen valor literally anywhere I can find it, including Spain's, just because I happen to be here. And actually, I'm going to spend just one second on this, this tweet about the fact that we are currently governed by broken men. You can see it everywhere, right? You can see it in Stephen Miller, you can see it in Elon Musk, you can even see it in sort of, you know, Mark Zuckerberg or like any of these guys, they're billionaires. But Elon Musk has to both be like infinitely racist. Going after immigrants, of which he is one, by the way, Just every time he can't stop with his anti immigrant tirades. I'm just like, you too? My friend came here, by the way, like dubiously, legally, for a period of time. He has children by how many different women? I mean, I think it's like, I don't know, four or five. It's like a very high number of women. What is that about? Right? What, what is that need by all of these guys? Or like Bezos now, you know, with the young wife and the huge muscles and like everybody seems to be going through. It's like our country has to live with the midlife crises of men whose fathers didn't love them enough or who, you know, are so deeply insecure that they have to take it out in these bullying, cruel ways. And it really does feel like a moment of watching a failure of leadership from men who have no center, no core. What are the hollow chested men? And I just feel like I see it everywhere. But maybe I'm overreacting to something.
- [07:06]
Bill Kristol
No, not at all. The only thing I'd add is don't you think it spills over from the elites who are that way and really can do huge damage because of their psychological disorders? Down to sort of quote, to regular people. There's one clip I saw over the weekend of some guy bullying a Hispanic neighbor who seems to have done nothing to him except be Hispanic. I think he's an American citizen, for all one could tell, living in a kind of suburban area, you know, with his family. And this guy is, you know, kind of turning his sprinkler on the lawn over into them and sort of harassing them a little. I don't know if you saw this one.
- [07:40]
Sarah Longwell
I didn't.
- [07:41]
Bill Kristol
And the other gentleman is using his phone to record this. So I'm a Trump person, and Trump lets me do this kind of thing. I've got. It's something like that. But he literally mentions Trump and literally sort of invokes Trump as a kind of justification. You'll be out of here soon. You're going to be back in Mexico. As I say, this guy seems to be here permanently and legally, so far as one could tell. But anyway, obviously these things are out there, and that's what allows someone like Trump to exploit the insecurities and the anxieties and the satisfaction people get from bullying. But the degree to which it then encourages other people to do things that they once would have repressed. I guess I come back to that. Right. It's like the. I think this was a pretty common trope a few years ago, but it's worth recalling that, you know, people always said certain things at 11:30 at night in a bar to their buddies, you know, that they wouldn't say publicly. Racial things or things about women. Yeah, things about women, very much so. Right. But it was important that they thought they. Okay, they can say to them. It was important that they thought they couldn't say them publicly. Right. That's part of what being a civilized society means. People are going to have certain things that they have to get off their chest somewhere or other. But you know what? In the corner of a bar to three bodies is one thing. And now it's all out there, right? And they feel legitimized to act on it. This is where the ice, the people who work for ice, you know, they're being encouraged, literally encouraged in their case, I mean, by actual superiors and by the secretary of DHS and by the head of ICE and by Trump himself to behave in this really terrible way. But it does show how, you know, there's such a cliche. You know, we conservatives used to say this 25 years ago. The veneer of civilization can be thin and it's more vulnerable than you think. But you really see it, don't you?
- [09:13]
Sarah Longwell
You do. And before we jump off this, just because this is like a thing I don't talk about that much, but I feel it all the time, which is, as a lesbian, I just wanna say that I think men are extremely important. And I've always loved a good man. And by good, I actually don't mean perfect in some way. I mean somebody who shows up to take care of somebody else. Somebody who demonstrates, I think, a positive vision of masculinity. I've got two boys now who are 10 and 8. And so I think about it a lot in terms of who are the men sort of setting the tone for society. And, you know, obviously, you know, I, I feel very warmly toward you and think you are a wonderful person. But I, I met Mark Hertling in person the other day. He was just in the office and I hadn't seen him before. By the way, if you have not watched it, they did a great live this weekend on what's happening in Iran, which is the actual conversation we're supposed to be having. But anyway, he comes in all tall and tan and, you know, with his former military, like, st, you know, stance or whatever. And he's this lovely person who thinks deeply about the harm of war to American young people, but also thinks a lot about leadership, about inspiration, about how you take care of soldiers, about how. What it means to have to sacrifice. And I've always really gravitated to this idea of men and leadership who tried to both be on one hand, like, very strong and, and tough and don't, you know, you know, get your pants up and, you know, tidy up your room and make your bed and that. But also kind. And I think it's. This is another one, sort of like, you know it when you see it. But like, there used to be, and I would maybe put John McCain in this category, but there used to be like a category of men in leadership that were much closer to that. They were aspirational, right? They were trying to do the right thing. They were trying to reflect the best of both America themselves, men in general. And it just feels like that's gone. Like Donald Trump has just decided, no, we're all going to be like degenerate sex pests who make fun of women, who, you know, beat up on people who are weaker than we are, who use whatever power we can, who steal other people's sacrifice, other people's service, other people's hard work and winning, because that's it, right? Spain trains all that time and they're at the, the pinnacle of what they have worked for, for years and years to achieve. And Donald Trump standing there being like, no, I'm going to take some of this. It's not his. And he only does it because he feels so broken inside that he needs it. I think this is a big part of what's going on, and I'm eager to see. This is why I don't like it when I see people mimic Donald Trump. I understand why people like what Newsom's doing and that kind of performance art, holding up a mirror to Trump. But I'm looking for, I'm looking for somebody to show up that understands that sense of restraint a little bit, that sense of judgment. Maybe I'm just off on one, but this is how I feel.
- [12:27]
Bill Kristol
No, no, this is interesting and really important. And I thought your tweet put it so well. And I think this has been a good discussion. I mean, Mark Hertling, who I have known for a while, he's an admirable man and he's what the US Military, I think, strives to produce, if I can put it that way, or shape or reward some of those character virtues, obviously traits not everyone shows them or not as well as he does. That's one reason I so loathe Pete Hegseth. He is taking this thing that has been kind of built up in America and produced an awful lot of admirable people. Jim Mattis. I mean, there's just so many of them. When you think of that generation that Marcus is part of and instead Hagseth is this ridiculous but also disgusting, really kind of wishes to be a bully and a tough guy and the whole macho thing in a very stupid, fake way, in a way, but more importantly, just offensive way, bullying way. Umberto Eco, I cite this piece all the time. His ur fascism essay from 1995. He really has a brilliant. Just a paragraph or two about the machismo side of fascism or of quasi fascism and the idea that our institutions are degenerating and they could be corrupted so that that becomes the model, the way to get ahead, as opposed to being like Mark Hertling or Stan McChrystal or Jim Mattis, that. That is depressing. I hope it's not the case. And there are plenty of other people who are going, you know, fighting back, I'd say, and going in the other direction. So that's a true culture war, if I can take a stupid phrase. Right? That's a real war about character, not a war. It's a real Competition about what kind of character do we want to produce in this country and do we want to admire?
- [14:10]
Sarah Longwell
This Bulwark podcast is sponsored by Soul. So I just mentioned to Bill that I've been on a fitness journey, which means I just, I can't drink as much because it makes me feel kind of crappy the next day and I can't work out. And so as I become more mindful of how I feel when socializing, winding down, just living life instead of defaulting to drinking, I've been choosing Soul's new mood gummies. I love the mood gummies. They're really chill. Whether I need a little spark to go out or something to settle down at night, they've got perfect options to make me feel right. Soul is a wellness brand that makes delicious hemp derived CBD and THC products designed to make feeling good simple. Those mood gummies have precise dosing, clean ingredients, and formulations designed for predictable effects. So you can choose how you want to feel while staying in control. I mean, we're just talking about 3mg here. It's nice and light, just something to wind down at night. It's like having one cocktail and you feel great. If you're looking for a bright social and energizing buzz, go with the uplift gummies. They're 3mg of Sativa THC plus CBG. Perfect for daytime plans or beating the afternoon slump. Just not if you're working in my office. No gummies during the day. When it's time to wind down the mellow gummies. These are the ones that I like. Deliver 3 milligrams of Indigo, THC and CBN. Ideal for cozy nights and fully unplugging. You got to be careful because if you take one and there's breaking news, you know, and you got to jump on a live stream, then I gotta get somebody else to do it. So, you know, just make sure no news is gonna break before you take one. And if you're looking for that just right, anytime. Vibe Souls balance gummies blend 3 milligrams of hybrid THC and CBD for an easy, versatile feel. Perfect when you're listening to your favorite podcast like this one. Make today a good day and get yourself some soul gummies. Right now, Seoul is offering my audience 30 off your entire order. Go to getsoul.com and use the code the Bulwark. That's getsoul.com promo code the Bulwark for 30% off. All right, so let's go back to Iran now that we've delved into that. Not on the, not on the sheet. Sorry, Tim, I just, I'm here to take us wherever, on all kinds of places. So there were even more attacks this morning. The New York Times says that mediators are looking to prevent a full blown war in the Middle East. You know, it was only a week ago that Trump declared that the US Was charging tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, that we were in charge. But of course he later backed off the tolls. But like, things are getting blown up right now. Like there was news this morning of some people came across some of the Iranian mines that were planted. Tell me just what has been going through your head this weekend? Because you wrote this morning in Morning Shots, nothing about the last nine days of war has anything to do with Iran's ability or inability to get a nuclear weapon. Centcom, on the other hand, said last night that the latest wave of US Strikes was intended to further diminish Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz. But there is no reason to think even more bombing will prevent Iran from making the Strait impassable. So Trump's war is now a pointless war. That is Bill Kristol in today's Morning Shots. Are we going into a full scale war? What is happening right now?
- [17:31]
Bill Kristol
We're at least in a pointless escalation and a dangerous escalation, obviously, with real lives being lost and who knows what's on the immediate horizon here. Iran is partly responsible for this, but there's no reason to assume that Iran would behave well, and they haven't behaved particularly well. On the other hand, Trump signed an agreement that sort of seemed to legitimate Iran's control of the Strait, at least for 60 days. And their ability to seek to insist on certain conditions for going through. And once he signed it, Iran is saying, okay, we're holding you to it, and Trump's trying to back off. I mean, the degree to which every boast that Trump and Hegseth made was just false, the degree to which they've all lied to us, and I hope the uniform military hasn't. I think even they, though, have been a little bit under a ton of pressure obviously to do so. So their lies are more lies of omission. CENTCOM tells you what they've done, leave a vague impression that it's all going well. But then it turns out, you know what, their missiles program wasn't decimated. Their ability to shoot all kinds of mortars, weapons, drones at US Bases in the region hadn't gone away, and they're actually being more ambitious. Jordan's a little further than some of the places they were hitting, right next door in the UAE and stuff. So again, they were lying about their early success. And now Trump can't accept the fact that Iran has the better of us and that the thing to do is cut our losses and basically get out. It's going to be on Fort Bad that the strait isn't really open the way it should be as an international waterway. But that's something that could be. At least we could bargain and try to work it out, and other countries could try to work it out and maybe it wouldn't be too disastrous. Instead, he's getting us in deeper. The reason I quoted both Trump and centcom is they're giving totally different reasons for why we're doing what we're doing, but neither has anything to do with what we're doing. I mean, we're just bombing up various parts of Iran's infrastructure. Some of them are vaguely militarily related, some of them aren't. We've been doing it for a week, and look what happened this weekend with the bases in Jordan and stuff. And now. And Trump himself said, didn't he, it's retribution to pay them back for what they did to our soldiers. That's really a reason to run this kind of risk, this kind of dangerous escalation. So it further weakens us, ultimately, it's going to further weaken us. The rest of the world looks at this and thinks, really, I mean, A, it's not going to work, so it's not like it shows our strength. And B, it just looks like it's driven by, to get back to earlier conversation insecurity and the wish that people not say that Iran outsmarted him, really. And a final point, it's his war. I say in the piece a few times, I just try to use the phrase Trump's war, and I capitalize W. I had a little argument with our friend Ben Parker about this because he said, yeah, you shouldn't capitalize war. It's not really. But I've tried to sort of get the idea out there that really is his war. This is not a war that anyone else was demanding. Congress, of course, never authorized or voted on it. There's no appropriation for it. He did Venezuela, now he's going to do Iran. And it's been going for five months. It's a big problem that Congress has not stopped it, but they should stop it now.
- [20:20]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And I'll just note, just as a political matter, something I would talk about with JBL is the fact that, you know, in the first sort of six weeks of summer here, Trump's approval rating, it didn't, it's not really going up, but it is like drifted back slightly from 39. Like he had been on a trajectory of dropping. And then it kind of now it's just gone from like 39% to 40%, which is obviously still not a good approval rating. But I think that the Iran more kind of being off again on again, Americans not really being sure. Then Trump doing a big 250. I'm going to announce that the war is over. I actually do think it takes Americans a while to realize, oh, no, it's not over. Oh, we're still in it. But I do think the gas price is jumping back up to four bucks here for the last stretch of summer going into it. People are going to notice that.
- [21:11]
Bill Kristol
Again, I was going to ask you about that since you've been following this so closely in the focus groups and otherwise, too. Yeah, they're up already like 13 points this past week, and I think going to go up another 15 points this coming week just because that's already baked into the wholesale prices. And that comes, as you say, after the 250th anniversary stuff ends, after the World cup ends. It's clearly an escalation. So the war is more front burner. The gas prices are rising. That's bad for Trump, right?
- [21:37]
Sarah Longwell
That's right. And obviously summers are sort of like this where people aren't always processing in real time what's happening because people are checked out. Right. Lots of people are off doing other things. They're not focused on the headlines. But people notice gas prices when they're traveling and when the price of everything jumps up, that is when you see people bail. I know people don't like this, that it's sort of like you can't get people to be really mad about the slush fund or Blanche or whatever. But, like the only thing that matters to them is the cost of gas. But it is true. And Trump is doing a wild thing here going into the midterms, choosing to continue this war. But it's also part of it is that it's just getting away from him. Right. We've got places like Kuwait and other. It's getting destabilized.
- [22:21]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, no, absolutely. And I would suggest if you look at past midterm elections, usually Labor Day is kind of key in the sense that things start to, you know, where it's going at the time of Labor Day. Things very rarely reverse in the last two months. Often the momentum picks up a little bit in the direction it's already going, especially in these. That's why people call wave elections wave elections. It's kind of moves gradually in that direction that it becomes a bit of a wave. It's amazing how much of the summer's over. I could just say, personally, it's already July 20th. So what are we, six weeks, seven weeks to labor Day? I mean, if he goes into Labor Day drifting down back 39, 38, 37, as opposed to going back up to 42ish, that's a huge difference you and I have done. We've talked a lot of. We've talked ourselves about this. We've talked to other people who study this a lot, Ron Brownstein and others. TRUMP At 42, 43, it's not great for the Republicans, but maybe salvageable what that means in a lot of red states, he'll be 49, 50, 51. Right. Those red states are going to be 8 points better or so 10 points better than the national average. If Trump's at 37, 30, then the red states are underwater. I mean, then you're asking a Republican Senate candidate in those states to run ahead of Trump's approval. And the history does show that Trump's approval correlates pretty closely with House and Senate candidates. So I think it's important politically if he now pays a price for this for the next six weeks.
- [23:42]
Sarah Longwell
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- [26:46]
Bill Kristol
Well, they're going to say there should be internal investigation. That's what they've been saying. The Inspector General of THS has a little team that investigates the Inspector general. I remember this when I was in government, the inspector general looks at things like whether someone has claimed expense accounts they shouldn't claim or other things, other kind of ethical violations, so forth. They're not set up to actually investigate actions on the streets of major cities. And plus it's part of DHS and ice. You can imagine what the incentives are there. So yeah, the notion that the federal government's not going to enforce at least minimal standards of decent and lawful behavior on federal agents who have now killed people. I mean, it's not like theoretically, you know, we're very alarmed if the FBI isn't doing a lot of investigating of, I don't know, EPA inspectors. I mean, they probably should if one of them is corrupt. But, you know, they're not going around killing too many people. So in a normal world, if a particular agency, ice, a particular division of dhs, has killed, what, four people who manifestly were just innocent on the streets of major cities, obviously two in Minneapolis and then recently in Houston and in Maine, I guess three major cities and one small town. You know, any normal administration said, we have to look into this. We're going to have to review the practices of ice. We're going to have to have maybe some external commission, blue ribbon commission, even take a look. We're bringing some former people who work there to see what's going on. I mean, this isn't acceptable. The Trump administration's attitude is very revealing. It's the opposite. Well, killings, brutality, violence, stop investigating. It's really terrible.
- [28:16]
Sarah Longwell
And so the same investigation by the New York Times found that the Trump administration had filed charges against more than 550 people for assaulting federal officers. Of the more than 400 cases that had been resolved, nearly half had unraveled, with charges being thrown out or withdrawn or the defendants being acquitted. Which means that ICE is. Is saying people did things that don't hold up in court. Right. They're saying, like, oh, they looked at me weird and so I had to do something about it, or they were protesting. And so that's a terrible record for ICE behavior, that the things that they're claiming aren't standing up in court.
- [28:53]
Bill Kristol
And they're shocking examples of just lying. Lying to judges by ICE agents and by lawyers on behalf of ICE agents and Border Patrol agents. No, it's a rogue agency that feels entirely. That's been encouraged to be violent and now feels. Feels. There's never really felt there'd be much penalty for it. Didn't pay a penalty for it. There are people dead. Is anyone paying a penalty for killing Renee Goode or Alex Freddy, or now people in Houston or Maine? I don't believe so, no.
- [29:22]
Sarah Longwell
I think it's like in the Catholic Church at the height of their, you know, bad stuff, they're just, like, shuffling people around, putting them in different precincts and just moving them.
- [29:31]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, no, it's terrible. And it really does bring home how major chunks of dhs, especially ICE and Border Patrol, how rotten they've become. That's why I keep saying, abolish ice. Not because everything ICE does not, because everything I know, I know not, because everything ICE does, doesn't have. Some of it has to be done by someone. Obviously in government it will be done. And there's the administrative things and other things, coordinating with local police departments to deport people who serve jail terms and should be deported and so forth. But I do think it's an actual, like, organizational matter. Putting on my sort of old, you know what I studied decades ago with James Q. Wilson about organizational behavior. If I became president January 29, I'd look at it, I think, and you can't fix it. Start over. Obviously there's certain things you can put in doj, certain things you can put elsewhere in dhs, certain things you can put in other agencies to do those functions that need to be done. But it sounds like the whole organization or it's not fair enough of the organization is rotten to its core that you couldn't take it over and just fix it with a couple of band aids.
- [30:29]
Sarah Longwell
And sort of the obvious reason why it's different is that they're putting so much money into it. They've hired so many new people that have been, let's say, trained with air quotes by this administration, with the values of this administration. And I use values as a negative term in this case. And so I am always resistant to sort of maximalist things like abolish ice. And. But your, your point about this is going to end up having to be a root and branch operation because of how, how much they have delegitimized it. I mean, every time I see an ICE agent and they're still rolling around with their faces covered like, we cannot have a secret police in this society. I cannot believe people are tolerating it. I mean, I guess we are not technically, but it's so strange Mark Wayne Mullen hasn't made things better over there at dhs. Going back to the political implications, I don't know if it was the World cup, if it was 250, if it was a sense of all of us checking out for a bit in the summer because you're like, who can take all this? I do think people are going to roll back into September with the ICE agents back with their masks shooting people and a war that is spinning out of control, gas prices that are high. I do think when the American people look up from their summer vacation, they're going to find a world that has not improved over the summer.
- [31:56]
Bill Kristol
No, very much so. Just on the ICE thing, I mean, they did a pretty good job from their point of View of they fired Kristi Noem, they got rid of that Pavin creep, Mullen came in, Homan was more prominent. They talked about, we're lower profile, we're stopping some of this. They didn't really say they were changing anything really, but they gave the impression that they were changing and they did pull back in terms of the most visible stuff. So people could tell themselves, if you wanted to be sort of okay with Trump, that, well, I think he's fixed it. It's unfortunate it went as far as it did and now you can't say that it does fit, as you say, with the other issues. In a funny way, it's like Iran, they had a bit of a reprieve there. And in April, May, June maybe, of seeming to be not doing the really grotesque things they were doing, I think you could still see they were doing a fair amount of bad, very bad stuff. But yet to be like looking on Twitter and stuff for that, I suppose, or maybe in the city where it was happening. But after these recent killings, you can't tell yourself that anymore. And after their reaction to it, which is nothing. The other thing is the Democrats did hold up the funding. It was kind of a big issue there for a while. What would that be? January, February, March. Then Republicans jammed through the money on reconciliation and it kind of just faded from the headlines. So I think for all these reasons, it's sort of like the war and like the gas prices too, kind of a lull. But the storm has reemerged, hasn't it?
- [33:12]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. This show is sponsored by Ridge Wallet. Losing your wallet is the worst. I'm the kind of person who puts my cards in like the sleeve of my phone to try to keep from losing them. And so I gotta get one of these wallets from Ridge. Their unique, slim, modern design holds up to 12 cards plus cash. And they're made with premium materials like aluminum, titanium and carbon fiber. Ridge isn't just about wallets. They create premium everyday carry essentials like power banks, key cases, suitcases and rings, all built with the same sleek, durable design. Ridge wallets also come with RFID blocking technology, keeping you safe from digital pickpocketers no matter what you pick. Ridge has free shipping, a 99 day risk free trial and a lifetime warranty on all of their products. It is literally the last wallet you'll ever have to buy for a limited time. Our listeners get 10% off at Ridge by using code the bulwark at checkout. Just head to ridge.com and use code the Bulwark and you're all set. After you purchase, they will ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you. We at the Bulwark. Go get your Ridge wallet. Thanks, Ridge. All right, Bill. So over the weekend, there are these two brothers. Well, tell me first, Bill, do you know who the Tate brothers are?
- [34:39]
Bill Kristol
I know who those degenerates are. I don't know much about them, I've got to say. They seem to be sex criminals, and Trump and Maga like them for some reason.
- [34:46]
Sarah Longwell
Yes. This is. Please, this is one of those.
- [34:48]
Bill Kristol
I now yield the floor. I now yield the floor to you. It's your generation, really.
- [34:51]
Sarah Longwell
You know, I don't want. I don't want to own this, because this is one of these phenomena that I cannot fathom. But there's these two brothers for our listeners who might not know Andrew and Tristan Tate. You might know Andrew Tate because he's, like, a key figure in the manosphere. And they were arrested on Saturday in Miami on British charges of rape and sex trafficking. And they were taken into custody by U.S. marshals for extradition to the United Kingdom. Now, here's the thing. These guys, this is what I want to remind people of. They had been in Romania and they'd already been accused of sex trafficking of rape. This is one of those stories I try to avoid. I don't want to know. It's, like, too dark for me. But at some point, I did go down the rabbit hole to really learn about Andrew Tate. And it's just videos of this guy talking about beating women, about trafficking women, about how you suppress and control women. Like, just the dirt. Baggiest disgusting. And, of course, because Trump has never met a sex pest he doesn't like. He's never met somebody who assaults women that he won't defend. I. Tim and I did a whole video recently reminding people about how he jumped into the defense of Mike Tyson after his rape charges, for which he went to prison. I mean, obviously, he has a lot of sexual assaulters in his ranks or people who've been accused of sexual assault, like Pete Hegseth, and they're just always all around Trump. But this, like, goes back, like, decades. Bill Clinton, he defended Bill Clinton back in the day. There was a long thing about how much he liked his kids playing with Michael Jackson. Anyway, point is, Trump has never met a bad guy who's mistreated women. I mean, Jeffrey Epstein that he doesn't want to hang out with. And so it shouldn't surprise anybody that Andrew Tate's empire of abuse includes lots of relationships with the Trump family. So much so that because they offered electoral support as influencers with young men, they were allowed to come, leave their sort of exile in Romania, where they were under house arrest again, rape and human trafficking. But in 2025, in February, they suddenly left Romania for Florida, where they were welcomed because of the Trump administration. They were basically allowed to come here. In 2016, Andrew Tate visited Trump Jr. In Trump Tower and was posting sort of pro maga tweets. He also has gotten close to Barron Trump and is like, you know, giving him advice about Taylors and things like, and God knows what else. So the thing that I'm to going interested in seeing here is whether or not Trump tries to stand in the way of their extradition, because he loves to intervene on behalf of. It could be Diddy. He supports Diddy. You know, like anybody accused of these kinds of crimes, Trump will come to their aid. And they're appealing to Trump. The Daily Mail reported yesterday that the Tate's lawyer said the President hates political persecution and communism, and this was an example of both. What do you think? Do you think the White House might fight their extradition?
- [38:09]
Bill Kristol
I mean, I don't know, but they. Or try to subvert it maybe a little behind the scenes, but they're proof. Trump's pretty willing to go out there on this stuff, right? He's pardoning sex offenders among many other criminals and fraudsters and stuff, if they pay enough. It does get back to, if I could just say, our earlier conversation too, the degree to which the whole thing is full of people who are really terrible, I mean, just terrible behavior, you know, I mean, I'm old enough to remember when really this was kind of condemned. And genuinely, you know, one judged administrations by how effectively they prosecuted people like this, not whether they let them go or welcomed them to the country. And didn't we intervene? In fact, didn't Trump send people to help get them out of Romania? I mean, there was actually. Yeah, yeah.
- [38:51]
Sarah Longwell
No, I think thematically, you know, I've been sitting here saying to myself, sarah, you're sitting in for Tim, and you do this whole thing about men and you go off on this whole thing. We're supposed to be talking about the Iran war. But no, I've decided this is the correct thing for us to have been discussing because it is the core of so much of what we are seeing right now. And I think that these guys make content about how you treat women terribly. And I think that this is part of the Brokenness. Right. Is that it used to be that sort of the desperate brokenness of men like this could be confined to the world that they inhabited. But now in the creator economy, there are whole audiences of young men that listen to these guys talk about, like, this is how you treat women. And they see it from the President of the United States, the richest man in the world, to the guy who's leading our wars. Yeah. Pete Hegseth in the military. Like, at some point, it is everybody that people. And then you've got these influencers. And so I, I do think it speaks to something that is. That is deeply broken.
- [40:06]
McDonald's Announcer
All new drinks are now at McDonald's with refreshers like the Strawberry Watermelon refresher and the Mango Pineapple refresher with popping Boba to crafted sodas like the Sprite Berry Blast with berry flavors and cold foam. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire six? All new drinks are here now at McDonald's.
- [40:33]
Bill Kristol
Refreshers contain caffeine.
- [40:36]
Sarah Longwell
All right, Bill, as we close, I want to talk about some election potpourri because there's a bunch of things happening right now. So. So first, I just want to do a little polling because the Washington Post IPSO poll late last week finds registered voters favoring Democrats by only 3%. So this is really the generic ballot, where, you know, if you go back five months or four months, the generic ballot gap was like getting between seven and nine. Like, it was a big spread between people who were saying, I would like a generic Democrat over a generic Republican by quite a wide margin. And, you know, while Trump's approval has only crept up ever so slightly, as we were discussing before, the generic ballot gap has been shrinking. And I don't know if you have a theory on that, but the Post said Republicans are not losing by a wide margin among the broadest electorate, despite President Donald Trump's deep unpopularity and broad concerns about the economy, the war with Iran and immigration issues. You know, I did tweet this weekend, this is a phenomenon I've been tracking for a long time where even as Trump is unpopular, and I think Trump's popularity is really important for elections, I think it's important for a ton of reasons. I can go into all my Bush line theories and why we want Trump down to 32% or below. But I do think that Democrats are going to have to grapple with the fact that as unpopular as Trump is right now, and he's still too popular based on what we are dealing with, like a high inflation, these should be just destroyers of an administration's popularity. He's gotten into a war, which he's lied and blundered his way into. They have been shooting Americans in the streets. The headlines have been relentlessly negative. Costs are still high for people. He's done nothing to lower prices. Gas prices are high. Like this should be ending him. And I think the reason that it's not is that if you look issue by issue by issue, Republicans still edge out Democrats on most of the issues that Americans care the most about. The economy, inflation. Who do you trust to handle foreign policy? Who do you trust to handle immigration? Like broadly, Republicans keep having an edge. That shows that people are just not running to Democrats in the face of Trump's just total unpopularity. What do you think is going on here? Do you have a theory?
- [43:12]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, a couple. I mean, I think actually Trump's unpopularity will end up trumping the people's doubts about the Democrats for this election. For this election, because it is so much about do you want a Congress that helps Trump or Congress that checks Trump? And I think that's a. Voters will default to that, which is the most important thing. No individual Democratic senator or House member is going to make policy in much of any area. The Democrats as a whole aren't going to make much policy if Trump's president. So I don't feel quite as worried as some about 2026. I think the generic closed a little, but it has correlated, as you say, with Trump having a slight uptick. Assuming he goes back to a slight downtick. And even if he doesn't, I think the natural momentum will be the generic to open up a little bit here in the last few months. That's often the way it goes. And in terms of Trump, I slightly disagree with your formulation that he should be really in worse shape. I mean, Trump got 50% of the vote. He's now getting, let's just say, 40 to be. He's lost one in five of his voters and now disapprove of him. His approval was about identical to his vote right after Election Day. So he's gone from 50 to 40, which is 10% of the electorate, 20% of his voters. That's a pretty big move by the public. And I will say to the public's credit, should be bigger. I wish it were bigger. It's bigger than it is among elites. So I think we have two problems. One is the Democrat problem, which should be addressed. They've had some primaries, they've had some people who weren't so great. Get a lot of press and I think that's probably had a marginal effect. So all in all it's been a little bit of a not negative summer for them exactly, but I'd say a slightly uninspiring lull summer with some negative aspects for them. But to be fair, I mean the economy continues to be growing, inflation is high, but it's not as high as it was with Biden. The war maybe now really will come home. But he did get a lull from that. So I think, think among sort of regular voters it's understandable that he's, I, I think it would have been unreasonable to ask for that much more of a desertion rate than one in five, especially because the elites remain so horrible. That's what strikes me the most. You're a regular voter, you look up and you think, I, I, I don't really like some of this stuff. Is it, could it get worse and stuff, oh, business leaders look fine, seem fine with Trump. There's no rebellion among big shot law firms, the universities kind of quiet Republican members of Congress, Republican governors know for whom most, by definition, most of these Republican ish voters have voted.
- [45:27]
McDonald's Announcer
Right.
- [45:27]
Bill Kristol
That's why they're the ones who were in play, you know, and they do prefer the Republicans on some issues. They're all on board with Trump. I do think the failure of the elites, I, I, it's just been appalling. I wish the public were a little more upset and I wish Democrats, you know, would get their act together. I think it's getting kind of late, honestly. In 26 we've got what you think we must have 90% of the candidates we're going to get. We could use a good Senate nominee in Michigan. I think that would, I think we're going to get a better one in Maine than we looked like we're going to get three weeks ago. I think the Senate races then have pretty good nominees actually, on the whole, both sensible and a lot of younger ones. I'm not as worried about 26, but I very much think Democrats have to get their act together. And 27, 28 wouldn't hurt to start a little bit Now, a lot of opposing Trump fervently and as you and Tim and I always try to point out, you can be centrist or modern in various policies and still be fiercely anti Trump. That would help a lot. And then if some elites would ever behave like responsible leaders as opposed to pathetic, you know, supplicants to Trump, that would, that would be nice.
- [46:26]
Sarah Longwell
It would be nice I do think that being able to focus on just like the, the eye of Sauron of the, of the press and everybody else focused on Graham Platner, focused on the DSA candidates that won in New York has not been good versus sort of brand Democrats because that stuff gets independent voters nervous. And I don't think that Democrats want to grapple always with the fact that like we live in a center, center right country and a lot of the states that like really have big races, with the exception of Maine actually, but places like Wisconsin, places like Pennsylvania, they are nowhere near as left as the average New York City voter. And so these are just very different places. My good news silver lining for Democrats is that that they are 10 points more likely to show up to the polls than Republicans. Like there is an enthusiasm gap. And this is what gets I think to then sometimes this polling can miss about voters where right now there's like this factional fight on the left around centrists and, and being more progressive. But like the voters just really want, want Democrats to be more aggressive. And sometimes the lower support for Dems that you see in polls are actually a lot of Democrats mad at Democrats for not being aggressive enough. And so those voters are still going to turn out and vote for Democrats. They're the reason that John Ossoff and James Talrico and a lot of the, the good candidates running this cycle on the Democratic are drowning in money because those voters are still enthusiastic about those individual candidates, if not the party as a whole. Okay, last thing where I do want to just touch on Maine briefly. Troy Jackson became the presumptive Democratic nominee for Senate over the weekend. And I guess the best way that I, I would describe Jackson is Graham Platner's politics with a lot less baggage. He finished third in the primary for governor, but he was endorsed by Bernie Sanders and campaigned with both Sanders and Platner. He's an electoral over performer. He got reelected by 5 points in a district that voted 5939 for Trump in 2024. And while he is not a lobsterman, he is a logger from Allagash, which is pretty much like the most far flung town in Maine and has a beer named after it. So what do you think? Do you think that this is the guy to beat Susan Collins?
- [49:00]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, I mean I would have been fine with the others who were thinking of running too. It might have been slightly closer to them on policy stuff. But he, he as you say outperformed in a very Trumpy district and his state Senate races now they Knew him there already, but now they get to know him well statewide. He was president of the state Senate. It's not like he's some kind of guy from nowhere who has no track record. And the Maine Democrats did okay when he was president of the state Senate. So I think, yeah, I feel pretty good about Maine. I mean, that's the state where Trump is now at 38%. And Collins can outperform. Will outperform Trump. But you're asking a lot for her to outperform this much in an election which is so much about. Do you want a Senate that will check Trump? Collins helps make the increased additional ICE funding possible. There are lots of issues to use against her. So I feel pretty good about Maine and North Carolina. Those two look like pretty quite likely pickups. Michigan's the one that the one Senate seat the Democrats hold. It's at risk, though I think less so if Haley Stevens wins, which I think she will in a couple of weeks. And then they have to pick up two or three if you want to, you know, to be a little on the safe side of the Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, four. And then there were two others that are actually possible, too. Kansas, I'd say. Yeah, I think. I actually think Democrats will win the House and the Senate.
- [50:16]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, that's some optimism from Bill. I'm tempted to ask you about Haley Stevens because I know you love a, like, plucky young woman striver. Like, that's your. That's your jam a little bit.
- [50:29]
Bill Kristol
I. I thought McMurra might be a better candidate at one point. I think Haley Stevens is kind of establishment and sort of. I know her son. She's an impressive of Paul in the sense that she's just. She's been through tough races. She knows her way around. I've always thought she was a little underestimated in that way. I mean, for all that we like. Everyone likes new and different and doesn't like old people who've been around a bit. But on the other hand, there is something about having been through some races in a tough state like Michigan and having some sense of what the voters want. I don't know. We'll see if she wins the primary, but I think she'd be a stronger candidate, certainly in the general.
- [51:02]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I do think it's funny sometimes in nationalized races, nationalized primaries like this one between Stevens and El Sayed, people tend to, like, take this national lens on things and, you know, they see videos of Haley Stevens kind of being a goofball, like, with this deep accent and, you know, let's go get him. And people sort of think it's cringe politics without understanding that actually locally that's playing just fine. That actually they find the. Oh, somebody who's gonna work hard, head down, who. You know, I don't wanna call it Tracy Flick energy because that. That has a lot of negatives to it too. But, you know, I think the voters, there's plenty of voters who are there for that. But it's also, you know, it's also a time for change and real anti establishment mood. So I'm not. I'm not as certain as you are, but I do think that now that McMorrow's out of the race, who was. She was also my preference. You will see Haley just getting like, a lot more of a look and that. That will probably help her because what. What comes out is a bunch of like, I did this and I did this and I did this. It's like real work, real action that Michiganders like. All right, Bill, this was fun. Thank you for doing this with me on Monday, guys. Sam Stein will be sitting in Tim's chair tomorrow, so don't miss that. Go subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. Subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube. Become a Bulwark plus member at. @thebull work.com See you tomorrow.
- [52:34]
Bill Kristol
Flying harmless man is not a good man. No good man is a dangerous man that practices self discipline. Young man, are you listening? I only speak the truth to you.
- [52:46]
McDonald's Announcer
For you, I've led these lessons learned. Will you believe or will you burn?
- [52:55]
Sarah Longwell
The Borg podcast is brought to you thanks to the world of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Lutz and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.
- [53:08]
McDonald's Announcer
All new drinks are now at McDonald's with refreshers like the Strawberry Watermelon Refresher and the Mango Pineapple Refresher with popping Boba to crafted sodas like the Sprite Berry Blast with berry flavors and cold foam. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire six? All new drinks are here now at McDonald's.
- [53:35]
Bill Kristol
Refreshers contain caffeine.