Dave Weigel: Polls Wrong, Hong Gone

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Bulwark Daily

Episode: Dave Weigel: Polls Wrong, Hong Gone
Date: August 12, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Dave Weigel (Politics reporter at Semafor, author of "The Show That Never Ends")

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Overview

In this episode, host Tim Miller welcomes Dave Weigel to break down the latest political developments, with a focus on the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary upset, probing recent polling misses, and discussing implications for the upcoming general election. The episode kicks off with a sober look at alarming ICE actions and detentions, before pivoting to political analysis spanning candidate strategy, the rise and fall of progressive hopefuls, intraparty dynamics, and early takes on the 2026 electoral map.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Immigration Misconduct and Internment Camps

(00:44 – 11:25)

• Traffic Stop Incident in Virginia:

  • Tim details a troubling video of a woman held at gunpoint by masked ICE agents, highlighting abuse of state power and fears of escalating authoritarianism.
  • Notable statement from Congressman Don Beyer condemns “habitual dishonesty and dangerous and unjustified escalation seen in this video” and demanding “answers and consequences.” (06:20)
  • Tim’s commentary: “This should not be how things work in a free country. A person should not feel like they have to have their dash cam on…in the chance that agents of the state will come up to their car, draw their weapon, and put their weapon right in the face…” (04:16)

• Story of Detained Family:

  • Tim reads from the account of Maryam Tomasebi, a legal resident, professor, and mother, whose family is detained in a Texas facility after questionable revocation of green cards, likening their treatment to Japanese internment camps.
  • “They kidnapped three people based on their ancestry, like, based on what country they're from. And this is the Japanese internment again…It is fucking sickening.” (09:44)
  • Urges listeners to take action and spread the story.
  • Context set for the rest of the political discussion: a sober reminder of the stakes of ongoing policy debates.

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2. Wisconsin Democratic Primary Upset

(11:25 – 23:48)

• Set-Up:

  • Dave predicted the upset, citing insider knowledge and reading the “tea leaves” even as conventional wisdom leaned toward a Hong (Francesca Hong) victory.

• Campaign Dynamics:

  • Hong, a progressive legislator from Madison, launched a left-leaning campaign focused on “permanent affordability,” expanding social programs, and opposition to data centers.
  • Multiple establishment and progressive candidates dropped out, leaving Evers-endorsed candidate David Crowley to consolidate support.
  • The left’s hope for a historic DSA-aligned candidate faltered due to:
    • Hong’s inarticulate handling of past “woke tweets” (abolish prisons/police, cancel Thanksgiving) in media interviews.
    • “She was not that deft at explaining herself... at times felt very unsteady.” (Tim, 17:39–18:10)
    • Strategic voting from moderate and Black voters wary of the DSA profile.
  • Super PAC money and strategic Republican spending affected the race, with the GOP running both attack ads and “fake negative” ads that were transparently supportive of Hong.

• Memorable Moment:

  • Crowley’s campaign partially inspired by seeing a “red bird” after praying for a sign. (20:12)
  • Online left tried to paint Crowley as an establishment, corporate Democrat, but his local context complicated that narrative.

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3. Takeaways: Progressive Challenges and Party Dynamics

(23:48 – 31:45)

• Electoral Money & Messaging:

  • Money poured into the race late, and party elites coordinated to prevent a DSA upset.
  • Democratic primary voters, even in supposedly fertile ground, showed a limit to appetite for “secret socialist” candidates, especially in rural and moderate urban areas.
  • Other progressives made gains by focusing on economic populism (data centers, affordability) rather than culture war or identity issues.

• Establishment vs. Anti-Establishment Labels:

  • Crowley (and others like Rebecca Cook) resented being labeled “establishment” solely due to endorsements, noting that “establishment” can be ambiguous and sometimes racially loaded.

• ICE and Immigration Policy Impact:

  • Enforcement issues like ICE raids influenced primary outcomes, as seen in nearby Minnesota and the changing electoral map in the upper Midwest. Impactful in suburbs/exurbs expanding into swing areas.

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4. Lessons from Other State Primaries

(31:45 – 39:48)

• Gerontocracy & Youth Movement in the Party:

  • Notable primary upsets (e.g., John Larson in CT losing due to perceived age/ineffectiveness) are driven more by generational energy and perceived effectiveness against Trump than by pure ideology.
  • New Democratic organizations (like “the bench”) targeting fresh, energetic candidates from diverse backgrounds.
  • The old “establishment vs. left” dynamic is being complicated by moderate and traditional liberals also seeking generational change.

• Massachusetts and the Markey/Moulton Race:

  • Ed Markey, long considered a liberal icon, faces a real threat from Seth Moulton due to age and a lack of focus. Moulton’s path hinges on winning independents and possibly capitalizing on anti-ICE sentiment.
  • “It's been a much more defensive, smaller campaign.” (Dave, 38:15)

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5. General Election 2026: Polling and Map Analysis

(40:05 – 47:26)

• Nate Silver’s Latest Model:

  • Surprises: Democrats now favored to flip the Senate (57% odds) and win the House (80%+), partly due to unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout and candidate performance in key states.
  • Texas identified as a potential flip: “His model had Texas as a flip…that was the big headline number.” (Tim, 41:58)
  • Republicans seen as favorites only in Iowa, Alaska, and a few stretches.

• Underlying Factors:

  • Democratic fundraising surging, particularly in Texas; Republican candidates underperforming with baggage or lack of appeal to Trump voters.
  • Changing Latino and Asian turnout patterns could be decisive in TX, other Sun Belt states.
  • GOP challenger field described as “a motley crew”—establishment picks uninspiring, and some “kooks” nominated in key races.
  • Republican strategy revolves around negative ads and attempts to paint all Democrats as radical, but lacks a compelling positive agenda.

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6. The John Fetterman Wildcard

(47:26 – 52:19)

• Senate Math and Loyalty Concerns:

  • Democrats may need a buffer due to Fetterman’s increasingly antagonistic attitude toward party progressives and friendship with Republican David McCormick.
  • On the risk of Fetterman flipping:
    • “He does need some Democrat to tell him, we are not all like this…the guys yelling at you online are not everybody.” (Dave, 50:37)
    • Ultimately, Dave doubts Fetterman would hand control of the Senate to the GOP for the purpose of Supreme Court nominations, but advises the party to “get him a friend.”

• Tim’s Advice:

  • “It’s incumbent on Chuck Schumer…to nominate one Democratic senator to become John Fetterman’s friend…He needs a friend that's a Democrat.” (Tim, 47:53)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This should not be how things work in a free country…Totally sickening…Consequences, the key word in that statement…that’s gonna be a big job for the Democrats if they take over.” – Tim Miller (04:16–06:38)

• “They kidnapped three people based on their ancestry. This is the Japanese internment again...Professor...it is fucking sickening.” – Tim Miller (09:40–09:50)

• “She was not that deft at explaining herself...at times felt very unsteady.” – Tim Miller on Francesca Hong (17:39–18:10)

• “A lot of these states, every cycle there's a couple hundred thousand more Texas Republicans...same thing in Florida, which is even more intense.” – Dave Weigel (44:18–44:45)

• “I have a long standing policy that I’m never going to be in Congress…my advice to congresspeople is to not vote on any non-binding resolutions. Hard policy.” – Tim Miller (31:26)

• “If you were posting too hard in 2020, then they say, I just like those liberals. I hate New York just like these John Oliver liberals.” – Dave Weigel (25:31)

• “It's not an ideological question in that race. It is, we are worried that you are too old and you are not effective at fighting Trump. And fighting Trump means many things.” – Dave Weigel on CT’s John Larson race (35:20)

• “It's incumbent on Chuck Schumer...to nominate one Democratic senator to become John Fetterman’s friend...He needs a friend that's a Democrat.” – Tim Miller (47:53)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• ICE misconduct & immigration story: 00:44–11:25
• Wisconsin Dem primary analysis: 11:25–23:48
• Progressives & party dynamics: 23:48–31:45
• Generational change & state races: 31:45–39:48
• General election map & polling: 40:05–47:26
• Fetterman wildcard & party management: 47:26–52:19

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Closing Thoughts

This episode offers a characteristically sharp, irreverent, and deeply reported look at the state of American politics heading into the 2026 elections. With thoughtful attention to immigration abuses and sobering reminders of democracy’s fragility, the hosts also delve into the mechanics of Democratic primaries, the challenge of balancing progressive energy with electability, and the unpredictable nature of party loyalty in an era of political churn. For listeners seeking both news and nuanced, real-talk analysis, it’s a must-listen snapshot of the 2026 political landscape.

Transcript

[A]

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[A]

You almost ran us over. Stop playing.

[B]

Full of. Stop playing.

[A]

You are full of. All right. You're not funny.

[B]

You're not funny.

[A]

I will arrest you.

[B]

Keep it up. I'm a legal citizen.

[A]

Oh, my goodness.

[B]

Okay. For what?

[A]

The one that try to run us over. Run you over When I got recording.

[B]

I got dash cam. I got dash cam. That's a lie. Y' all fucking full of shit. This is horrifying. And what you see there is the woman saying, hey, I got you on camera. These lies you're trying to say about me, that I tried to run you over or whatever, that's not going to work. And then these goons, these thugs go away like, this should not be how things work in a free country. A person should not feel like they have to have their dash cam on and be videotaping at all times. And. And the chance that agents of the state will come up to their car, draw their weapon, and put their weapon right in the face of a woman driver who is obviously no threat, no danger. They don't even end up detaining her. Totally sickening. Congressman Beyer said this in releasing the video. My office has been in contact with the woman who recorded this video of an ICE agent drawing a gun on her. She's a Northern Virginia native and a mother. While I'm relieved that she is safe, the habitual dishonesty and. And dangerous and unjustified escalation seen in this video matches what we've seen from ICE for agents across the country. This kind of misconduct and threat of force against members of our community can't be tolerated. I'll be demanding answers and consequences. Consequences, the key word in that statement. And that's gonna be a big job for the Democrats if they take over. And then there's another horrifying story that I'm not sure how much I can add from an editorializing perspective, except to reiterate something I've been talking about ever since the interview with Jonathan Blitzer before vacation, which is that we have internment camps in this country and I don't think that people have really mentally accepted that. But we are holding people in horrific conditions illegally based on their race, based on their country of origin. It is the Japanese internment camps over again. And when I read you the story, I assume you're going to be just as angered and horrified as I was. So this is for the nation. Appreciate them publishing this. I'm just going to read excerpts from it because I think putting it in the detainees words is better than me describing it. She writes this My name is Maryam Tomasebi. I am a professor of psychology and statistics at Los Angeles Pierce College. Or I was until April 9th. Remember that date people? April 9th, when my life and my family's lives changed forever. On that day I was teaching a class when my son texted me saying that my husband hadn't picked him up from school and wasn't answering his phone, which is very unlike him. I picked up my son from school, came frantically back home and called the police, thinking that something horrible must have happened to my husband. Even so, it never occurred to me that he could have been detained by ice. We are legal permanent residents with valid green cards. We don't have any criminal record, not even a traffic ticket. I was beyond shocked to realize that an online smear campaign without any merit or legal standing had convinced the government to try to revoke our green cards overnight without due process or even telling us. The government had decided to punish my husband for being the son of a woman who was a translator for the Iranian hostage takers in 1979 before he was even born. The next day when I took my son to school, my car was surrounded by DHS cars and my son and I were detained. I had to watch my son, who is in high school and has been a legal resident of California for 12 years, be handcuffed. We were shipped to Texas overnight from Los Angeles in horrible Conditions that I won't elaborate on in this letter. We have remained in Texas ever since. My son and I have spent over 120 days in the Dilley Immigration Processing center away from my husband. We are asking anyone with a conscience to help us end this nightmare. What else is this if not an internment camp? Since April, this woman and her husband and her son have all been held illegally in a camp. You heard from Jonathan Blitzer about how horrible the conditions are in these camps. She doesn't have an attorney to get her out. They did nothing. Like, not that this would be okay if these are people that, like, crossed the Rio Grande illegally, but, like, that would be one thing. That's what the Republicans are pitching. That's what they're acting like. They kidnapped three people based on their ancestry, like, based on what country they're from. And this is the fucking Japanese internment again. And this is what happened. It's like, we started a war with Iran, and so we've kidnapped three Iranians and held them in camps in Texas. Professors. It is fucking sickening. And everybody needs to know about it. So she's asking anyone with a conscience to help. I'm asking our audience to do so. We'll put a link to a Nation article here. And please share this on your social media. Call your congressman, call your senator. It's fucking sickening what these people are doing. All right, we're gonna get really dorky on politics next, so do stick around. We get into the map, some pretty surprising news about Texas. Stick around. It's Daybloc. For me. The best part about looking at old photos is that it reminds you of the stories behind the moments in the pictures. I was just doing the iPhone nostalgia deep dive, looking for college pictures of myself. Luckily, it was like before. I'm old enough that it was before the iPhone, so there are very few, but, boy, do they tell a story. We'll have to reflect on that another time. One way to ensure that you can have these memories so that a friend or colleague or family member can have these memories without having to manually scroll through the phone is to turn to our friends at Aura Frames. Aura Frames enhances daily life without overwhelming it, servicing meaningful memories in a way that feels ambient, additive, and fun. And it's easy to use. You just download the free Aura app or text phone straight to your frame. With free unlimited storage, you can add as many photos and videos as you want. It was named number one by Wirecutter. You can save now by visiting auraframes.com for a limited time listeners can get $35 off select frames plus free shipping with code the bulwark. That's a U R A frames.com promo code the Bulwark. Support the show by mentioning us at checkout. Terms and conditions apply. All right. He is the sleep deprived politics reporter at semafor. He writes it's Americana newsletter, the best in the biz. He also is the author of the show that Never ends the Rise and Fall of Prog Rock. I don't know if we're going to do a lot of yes chatter on this podcast, but I like to point it out. It's Dave Weigel. What's up, man?

[A]

How's it going? Good to talk to you.

[B]

It is good to be with you. Polls wrong. Hong gone in Wisconsin last night, I guess is the big news part of the reason why you're on. You're gonna be on anyway. You're gonna be on anyway. But I do just like to give credit where due. Okay. I have a text from you last week, a week ago today, as a matter of fact, and you said this. We're just, you know, we're just gossiping about the racist. And you said, hey, if there was no early voting in Wisconsin, I'd bet it all on Crowley. So it wasn't a full Nostradamus prediction. But you were reading the tea leaves. You saw this coming. When I think a lot of us were kind of resigned to a Hong victory. Explain what you think happened last night in Wisconsin and why you saw it coming.

[A]

Yeah. And Republicans were giddy about a Hong victory. They really, in talking to them yesterday before the polls closed, were prepping how they were going to run against Tong use, tie her to other Democrats, et cetera. It didn't happen. So I was in Wisconsin. I've been back and forth for years and years. Large story of Wisconsin, as you can read in Ben Wickler's book, is that it has been a swing state. Obama blew it out twice. And that it's been competitive. But unfortunately for Democrats starting in because Republicans swept in 2010, they have run the maps forever. And the entire story of Wisconsin Democrats is slowly gaining ground or not losing it in every election until one day this year you can win a trifecta and redraw the state maps. And so those are the stakes for high information Wisconsin Democrats or the people who not all of them are primary voters or high information, but the people who vote every primary had been part of that story coming after the state Supreme Court race, coming out for Kenny, et cetera, et Cetera. And so Fr. Francesca Hong enters this view, this climate. She gets very lucky and she also runs a good campaign. Hong is this, is this left wing legislator from Madison, I repeat myself, Madison is the most left wing part of that state, would be the most left wing part of many states. And she is a good progressive legislator who is part of protests. I think I didn't meet her at the time, but in covering the Act 10 Scott Walker protest, she was part of that on the ground. And she runs on data centers, really

[B]

does a good, very clear message.

[A]

She gets in. She says, this is a state that can do a lot better. This is a state that in the past, not the state Milwaukee elected socialist mayors. Just as Zoran Mamdani transformed politics in New York by saying, I'm a socialist and I could deliver for you. I'm going to do that for Wisconsin. I'm going to raise taxes on the rich, expand social programs, bring about what you called permanent affordability, and then runs against data centers, which she tells me just a lot. You hear this from a lot of left wings candidates is they do a lot of grassroots work. They go to rural areas and people are hyped up about data centers. They start talking about them. That's good, normal politics. And so she's running a good campaign. Everyone else is running a bad one. There's a glut of candidates. There's the lieutenant governor to Tony Evers, who basically her campaign manager, Sarah Rodriguez, campaign manager is, is the, the key figure of this, of this whole story because he is bad at his job. So bad that she has to drop out of the race. Mandela Barnes, who was Evers's previous lieutenant governor, is running but has scar tissue from losing his Senate race in 2022. And also rumors that, which end up being reported that at least one person he hooked up with which didn't hook up with him. I'm not trying to minimize that, but there was in Democratic circles chatter that something might come out about Mandela at some point. And so what Evers does as Hong surges and his lieutenant governor collapses, he while on an international trade trip, convinces David Crowley, the Milwaukee county executive who had been running and by his own words, I talked to him, said he ran a bad campaign, got no attention. He gets back in with Tony Ever's endorsement and with all the labor unions that were endorsing other, other let's say center left candidates, and he grinds it out and he wins. So you had a two and a half week primary, basically a mini primary where maybe 80,000 votes were already cast for other candidates who had dropped out, out of what's going to be 800,000 votes. And Crowley just said, is the Evers candidate. If you want to continue what Tony Evers is doing, I'm your guy. I'm a competent executive of Milwaukee County. I'm not as left wing as Francesca Hong. He survives a midi scandal where he was tied to a Twitter account that said just racy, kind of stupid guy. Things not with his name. It was an anonymous account.

[B]

He also has kind of a weird story where it's like a group account and like one of the people that was on it is dead. It was a pretty weird story.

[A]

Very weird story. He doesn't defend it very well. So the left is feeling very good about its chances to nominate the first Socialist Democratic Socialist governor candidate in a swing state. It would be historic. We'd be in a 4,000 votes flip. And we're talking about that today. And I think in that moment they get a little bit hubristic and put Francesca Hong out in front of media. Now, I'm a reporter. I love when candidates talk to media. I don't like it when they cut the media off. Hong I've known for a long time and she was very willing to talk to me. We got cut off in one interview and she called me back at 11pm to finish it for 20 minutes. You should be talking to people. However the conversation turned to call them woke tweets she had sent between 2019 and 2021 about abolishing prison, abolishing police. And I think this is the one that'll live forever, that we should cancel Thanksgiving because it's a colonial holiday. And in her media interviews, not just mine, I was on the phone with her in the in person, but on tv she's defending it and just doesn't come off very well. And one thing I've been figuring out today is she did not get the same progressive endorsements and strategists as some candidates. This was some of what they were worried about, is that Abdullah Sayed is a very talented, brilliant Rhodes scholar who can dazzle in an interview and explain anything he said before. He has a lot of, I wish I hadn't said that. But he could explain it and she's not as nimble at explaining herself. So did it all come down to her and Caitlin Collins and her giving a long winded answer when Kate Collins says, do you still want to cancel Thanksgiving? I don't know.

[B]

Didn't help though. And I would just say I think we can say this now. Wednesday, August 12th. I'm going to admit something that I've not admitted on the podcast yet. Thanksgiving is just okay for me as well. There's a lot of people who complain about Thanksgiving and the travel and the family getting on their high horse about Thanksgiving the last couple of weeks. But to me it was less about the substance of that and just what you're saying. She was not that deft at explaining herself. And another difference between her and Abdul El Sayed is not just his talent as a candidate, which he has, but I think about it with like the school principal rule. Like if my kid was at a school and we're getting a new principal and Abdul El Sayed comes in, I'm like, this guy can handle this. Like, he seems very competent. She at times felt very unsteady. You know, like there were some things that she obviously did well, but both in kind of her bio, the way she presented herself, all of that. And with the stakes being so high, as you mentioned, with the redistricting in Wisconsin, I mean they could have Texas, Wisconsin, you know, had the Republicans had a big, had big victories there and the legislature at the governor's race, it just, the stakes are very high. And to me you end up kind of with this coalition of, like you said, strategic voters. She doesn't run up the vote as much in Madison as you would have thought. Some strategic voting with just like we saw in Michigan with Haley Stevens, like the more non college, particularly black voters, you know, not really, not really digging the cut of the jib of the DSA guys.

[A]

Yeah. Also money matters. And there had not been a lot spent on the primary before this, this period where Crowley gets back in the race with the. It did help that that Evers directed money to super PACs that were on the air for Crowley and on the air against Hong. What they were fueled by though was Republicans were spending money to help Hong. They had both a pop up pack that was running pro Hong ads and they had through the Republican Governor association ads that were the transparent. We're all familiar with this now, negative ads that are clearly positive. One of them was warning, oh, Francesca, Hong opposes Trump's deportations. Okay. What's the Democratic primary voter?

[B]

The most aggressive.

[A]

Yeah, Crowley fed into that or I should say jumped onto that and said when I talked to him the day he got back in and he was saying, yeah, I was convinced by several things. One of them was it looked like Republicans were going to pick our nominee. And that was a good response. Yeah.

[B]

The other One importantly was that many people think God has abandoned us in 2026 in this country. But Crowley said that I guess his wife, they'd prayed, seen a vision, that there was a red bird saying that he should run. And then the bird with the word came to them and they saw a red bird. And that was also why I got in.

[A]

Yeah, that happened, too. Although that was. This may be a tangent, but every race is flattened, obviously, and all time is. Is now circled because a thing you said six years ago can be looped. I thought it was interesting and kind of effective for the online left to take clips of. Of Crowley, who most people had not heard of. If you've heard of him, if you're in Milwaukee, you've heard of him. He was a rising star in Milwaukee.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But just to make him. Make him look both kind of loopy and like he was a corporate Democrat who was going to turn the whole state over to AI companies because he actually, his wife had told that story in his launch, his relaunch speech. And I remember thinking, that's interesting, but I didn't make a clip out of it. Once it was a clip, it became famous.

[B]

Yeah, right.

[A]

But what was the overall pitch there? It was really just, don't let the establishment take down Hong with this guy. And in Wisconsin, the establishment is Tony Evers, this nice old man who is the reason why the state is not Texas right now, as you were saying, who has been the bulwark against a lot of Republicans want to do.

[B]

Yeah. And this is, I think, again, why I kind of thought the whole thing was kind of crazy. It's just like things in Wisconsin are going kind of fine. You know, I understand wanting to try new things in certain places where Democrats have been losing and where they feel like establishment candidates have failed them. And we've seen this in some other races, which we should talk about. Americans are carrying over a trillion dollars in credit card debt at rates north of 23%. That's more than $200 billion a year in interest paid mostly by households who happen to be sitting on the largest pool of untapped home equity in U.S. history. Think about that for a second. You own a home. You've built real equity in it. And yet when you need capital for a remodel for debt reconsolidation for something your household budget didn't plan for, the financial system routes you to a 23% unsecured card instead of letting you borrow against the asset you already own. This is a quiet tax on the American middle class. And the big banks aren't really caring about fixing it. I even built the first home equity line of credit issued on a Visa card. So the same swipe that used to cost you 23% now costs you a fraction because it's secured by the value that you have already accrued. That's hundreds of dollars a month back in your pocket. And if you've been putting off a remodel, here's the case for getting on with it. A well scoped renovation is one of a few purchases that actually pays you back because it makes the house worth more. If you own a home and you're carrying a high interest balance, you're overpaying for capital. Aven fixes that. Go to Aven.com to discover your offer. That's AV E N dot com Aven stop overpaying for Capital Aven Financial Inc. NMLS 204-2345 cards issued pursuant to a license from Visa USA Inc. By Coastal Community Bank NMLS 462289 member FDIC equal housing lender subject to approval terms apply. Visit Aven.com for details. Just a couple other stray thoughts I had. I just wonder if you had any other takeaways from this race in particular. Then we'll go around the country, but huge turnout. I mean just huge enthusiasm for the Democrats. Kind of insane. I see this a little bit with Trump. When there is a firebrand candidate, it draws people out for and against. A huge turnout in Wisconsin. Another polling Ms. Maybe that's something to monitor, maybe not. I saw you kind of engaging in that discourse on social media and the other takeaways.

[A]

I think the money part of this is it. It's I was talking to Democratic strategists today. We do our best in the press to track this, but a lot of campaign spending is done so that you don't get the full picture told. It's over. And who's writing and reading the stories about what was spent in a race a month ago? We will learn that had money stayed on the sidelines. Hong Hong still wins, but in the end it's in Michigan. It was fit for 51% of people who voted for somebody who was not Abdul Asayed. And luckily for him, some of that was for Canada who dropped out already. And In Wisconsin about 60% of Democrats voted for somebody who was not Hong. Three had dropped out already. Some people stuck it out for the two kind of stragglers who stayed in the race. But there was this worry about nominating Hong and the idea that the state that was so close that Trump had won twice, was waiting for a progressive socialist champion, which is not very convincing. And again, I'm blending this with the money on an even playing field. Does the socialist candidate win bigger in Michigan than they win Wisconsin? Possibly, but we keep finding this, that there is not a secret socialist vote in rural America that is waiting for this kind of candidate. Now, are they waiting for populist candidates who are against data centers? Yes, they are. I thought William Lawrence in Michigan who won the mid Michigan primary for what was Elissa Slotkin seat. I talked to him a bunch in that race. What he was able to do was just make it a pure populist campaign. The only will bring up what he tweeted in the past. I did. And I asked him about some woke tweets. He'd said it just wasn't part of the discourse. I do think there are people who used to vote for Democrats who can be convinced that this Democrat is a little bit different. But if you were posting too hard in 2020, then they say, I just like those liberals. I hate New York just like these John Oliver liberals.

[B]

Rebecca Cook was another example of this. Maybe for people who aren't familiar with her talk about her race. I mean she ends up winning. She has the backing of the Bernie crowd and kind of the dccc, more moderate crowd sort of running on this populist platform that doesn't kind of dabble into some of the more the elements of the dsa. That's. That's worrying people.

[A]

Do you want to do takes, but you don't want to just flatten out the whole country because the conditions are different. I would say though, and I was talking about E versus popularity. Just what is the Democratic establishment? What does establishment mean? Because this is something else that came up with Crowley. Crowley was. And again, I asked him this and then other people asked him on camera and it got kind of viral. This is like a natural question. What does establishment mean? He was getting annoyed saying, you're calling someone like me, who grew up in Milwaukee, first black county executive, the establishment. That's a slur to me. And that kind of translates. Does he think it's the. The word establishment's racist? No, it's that in his particular context, like the most segregated city in America, like the suburbs of Milwaukee, being, having been very Republican, what he did was interesting and transformative and he was annoyed he wouldn't pay attention. But also, yeah, the Democratic establishment includes both Chuck Schumer and people in D.C. who are losers and lost. And it Includes Tony Evers and Peggy Flanagan and Tim Wall and Democrats in states and cities who have won elections. And I do think the establishment as an epithet, the one you talk about with Rebecca Cook was especially dumb because yeah, she, she's run three times, this is the third time. And Republicans want to beat her because they think they can make her go away. They win this time, lost her first primary as an insurgent, won the second one. And this time it was a more progressive city councilman in the most liberal part of the district saying she's backed by the establishment. What does the establishment mean if both DCCC and Bernie support you? Like not that much was was the answer. And just saying my opponent is the establishment. There's a lot of room to color in inside there. It's, it's not clear to me that voters are just saying I want the most anti establishment person. They want person who didn't, who's not a loser. And so that you've seen, we, maybe we'll talk about John Larson in Connecticut. You've seen Democrats are saying, keep me in the ring. I might be old and I might have lost to Trump, but I can do it. Next time you're seeing voters say, no, you lost, you won fighters putting a

[B]

loop on what's happening there in the upper Midwest, or closing the loop rather, on what's happening in the upper Midwest. It's interesting the way that ICE and kind of Operation Metro surge had an impact both in that Minnesota race, which you mentioned, where Peggy Flanagan beats Angie Craig. Angie Craig, who I like a lot lesbian I've had on the show, really good member, affable. And it's like she voted for the Lake and Riley act and it just seemed like it was hard for her to get past that vote. She ends up losing, you know, a respectable loss, but a clear loss to Peggy Flanagan, the more progressive lieutenant governor. But there's also some bleed into Wisconsin here, which is interesting where. Because I remember seeing this when we went to Minnesota, many of the protesters that we met and talked to were from the exurbs, the suburbs exurbs of Minneapolis on the other side of the border in Wisconsin, which went for on. Yeah, they were talking about how a lot of the ICE agents had gone there. And so if you look at the map of Wisconsin, like yeah, Hong does well kind of in Dane and then also does well there in the Minnesota excerpts. And I think that's just interesting, the impact of that both on these primaries. But then prospecting out to the general, Wisconsin has been a swing state to the extent that Minneapolis suburbs continue to expand into Wisconsin, that's an additional voting block that could potentially help Democrats and in general elections there.

[A]

It's unique. What happened in Minneapolis, everyone knows the basic history. But in the Minnesota primary, Craig voted for the Lake and Rally act, as did some other Democrats in swing seats. I think her seat was Kamala plus 6 in the context of Trump having won again and she would have been, that happened to pass the Biden border bill. That wasn't what was in front of him. You know what was there? The Democrats bit the bullet and voted for this. And then Republicans wanted to give Trump a win, so they waited to send the bill to him and not Biden. So it was Trump who got to sign the Lake Riley Act. Even worse, if you're a Democrat, it wasn't the Biden signed bill, it was, you voted for a bill that Trump signed. And I'm not new to the idea. There's cynicism in politics, but Republicans do want it both ways. They want to pass their legislation and they want to hurt moderates and get them replaced by progressives who they think can win. So it was the Latent Riley Act. It was also the resolution last year that, that was drafted as an anti anti Semitism resolution. Republicans added language praising the work of ICE because there had just been a shooting outside an ICE facility in Texas. I think that was the one where I believe the, the PERs are in jail for 50 years now. And Republicans added this language and if you're a Democrat, you, you make this calculation. I can either vote against this and have an opponent say you didn't condemn anti Semitism, or I can vote for this. I protect myself. What has happened to everyone who voted for that bill in Democratic primary or the resolution is that they get destroyed by it. Maybe they, they either apologize for it, they explain it, but it was you thanked ice. That's pretty simple. My opponent thanked ice. Why would they thank ice? I'm always sympathetic when people are trying to explain something their position, but it's not that much of a sympathy inducing thing to say. I was too scared to explain my actual position and I just voted for this poorly written political resolution. That hurt her a lot too. And I've seen that hurt Raja Krishnamoorthy in Illinois. I've seen, I've heard other candidates who thought to be safe, I'm gonna cast this. Oh, no. It turns out there was a huge boondoggle in defining issues of the primary. Good issue for the left, but set up by the right.

[B]

Yeah, I Mean, my takeaways on this is, number one, I have a long standing policy that I'm never going to be in Congress. So, you know, my advice to congresspeople is to not vote on any non binding resolutions. Hard policy of no voting on non binding. They're just tweets. All they are is tweets. If you want to go back home

[A]

and say, hey, I never vote on that stuff, people say, oh, I don't vote on that.

[B]

Yeah, the Lincoln Bradley act was a bad vote for these guys. And I think that they're trying to be strategic, they're trying to be savvy. And I think it's unfortunate in retrospect, not giving it to Trump on immigration was the right thing to do. There was a lack of imagination about how bad the Trump immigration regime could be. I think for people that thought that there was going to be a middle ground on that one, a couple other big narratives and then I want to get into kind of the map. You mentioned it in Connecticut, the Larson race, there's this kind of war on gerontocracy within the Democratic Party. The Mills situation in Maine, obviously a prime example of this, a pretty interesting race there in Connecticut because the guy that beats Imbronna mayor does not fit the mold of some of these other kind of lefty DSA challengers. I think he was, I think he was in the Abundance program with your friend Ezra Klein and you know, he just ran basically saying, I've got more energy to do the job. Maybe there's more to it than that. Why don't you just kind of give a rundown of that race and this kind of other model that is being promoted by people at the bench and other places where you've got these, you know, more working class challengers that, that have a more middle of the road profile ideologically.

[A]

Well, you just mentioned the bench and that's, that's a fairly new fight inside the party. Kind of late because we're almost done with the primaries. But the bench is a, is a big doer funded effort with good Democratic strategists to recruit and nominate candidates who are young and active and, and they think would be never good members of Congress, but not necessarily left wings. This is a threat. If you are dsa, if you're a Bernie, et cetera, and you want every primary winner to be progressive, that is a threat to you. So you start David Sirota's publication, the Lever started to go after this. It didn't work very well. John Larson tried to make that an issue in his race. But the issue with John Larson's race is that he was 78. He Last year, early last year when the nerves about Biden were very, very tense, is giving a floor speech to fairly empty House floor about his issue Social Security because he wanted to expand Social Security and freezes up several times. And then his office says there was a medication reaction, it was a partial seizure, but he's fine. A couple months later, Luke Bronin gets into the race. He was the former mayor, Hartford Rhodes scholar veteran, not left wing. And Larson's really annoyed by this because he thought bro was going to support him. But Broden saw where things were moving. The Democrats said Democratic voters, I should say say, yeah, the last time we said let's, let's wait. We believe that this incumbent can, can pull this out, it led to a generational disaster. So Democrats were open to supporting someone else. So Bronin gets the endorsement of the local Democratic Party. Everyone competes at the conventions. The Larson strategy is basically just to hopefully there's enough votes for other candidates to split it. He, he ends up as a non scandalized incumbent. His only scandal being seizing up on the floor with a third of the vote. Two thirds of this safe Democratic seat vote for somebody else. I think he wins two towns in the whole city, his town, East Hartford and then one other town. And it was just, it was just a completely definitive rejection of old Democrats. And he had progressive endorsements. Jamie Raskin came out to help him. Working Families Partners endorsed him. It was just, it's not an ideological question in that race. It is. We are worried that you are too old and you are not effective at fighting Trump. And fighting Trump means many things. Yeah, but if you watch Larson, Larson, the kind of classic north northeast liberal and you know, very Kennedy esque speeches. Obviously he's older now, so they land a little bit less hard. They use portraying himself. You need me back in there. I have the seniority of that experience. I can fight Trump. You know how that ends. Democratic voters say you lost, though we would give you a mulligan on the first one because of Russia and all this stuff going above your vote.

[B]

Yeah, no, he won twice.

[A]

Yeah, you guys lost again. You can't convince us that you can win.

[B]

This is the thing, I think that the guys at the bench and a few other places are doing that's smart. It's just that, like you have to give Democratic voters another option. Wherever your ideology is, if you're in the center or if you're just kind of a traditional liberal, it's like, you have to tell Democratic voters, like, you recognize that the strategy has not worked the last decade and you're offering some new. Either kind of angle on how to go out Trump or just kind of a new face or a fresh face or a new kind of background new story. And I do think that where the establishment failed in a lot of these races, it was because the more moderate candidates weren't offering anything. And I think this was a mistake. This was another one of those candidates where it didn't work. I've said this on the podcast, like Mallory's race, where it's like, it felt like she was offering that at the start and Haley was. And then it ends up being kind of you're attacking the left and like, that's not going to work work. If only the left is offering something new and you're attacking the left. Democratic voters we're seeing are going to, I think, go to the people that are offering them a positive vision and another way to kind of go at Trump. And so anyway, the Connecticut race was an interesting microcosm of how that looks when it's not coming from the Bernie wing of the party.

[A]

Yeah. And Mallory was another bench candidate. And Bonin did not get stuck in that same tar pit of fighting about Hassan Piker and fight about Israel. That was. Had Bronin put out tweets years ago saying, I hate Connecticut, it might have been different.

[B]

Yeah, there were a bunch of issues that were happening there. It was a very specific race. Yeah, I've talked about that a bunch.

[A]

But. But you're right on the. The general idea is that. And this is what the Mallory people's theory was, was Haley cannot actually win in this environment. People do not want the Schumer candidate to win the primary. That was correct. As close as it got. That was correct. They just couldn't get people to vote for their candidate instead.

[B]

Last example of this, and then I want to do kind of big picture general election. And some. Some decent news for Democrats on that front is we had the Massachusetts race coming up. Moulton also more of kind of a center candidate trying to make this generational change argument against Markey kind of without getting into like the nitty gritty of the back and forth of what's happening in that race. It felt like there was some momentum there from Moulton, but that Markey has kind of pushed it back. What do you think? Is there. Is there a possibility still that Markey gets clipped there or not?

[A]

So there still is. And Markey is, on the one hand, more Prominent than John Larson, but not that much more. The idea of Markey as a liberal hero is pretty recent. It was built for his 2020 campaign when he needed to polarize the race between him and Joe Kennedy iii, the congressman. And that progressive movement has not shown up for Markey this time for the reasons we're talking about. It just he is 80. He was part of his big project in 2020 was the green New Deal. And that's, that's kind of ashes the mouth of a lot of Democrats because every part of it they could pass the Trump administration got rid of. And he's not run a very focus campaign. What he has done is portrayed Moulton as an opportunist who has betrayed constituencies like trans people in order to, in order to get ahead. That's not as compelling as you need me in the Senate to transform the economy into a green economy. It's been a much more defensive, smaller campaign. His campaign manager from the 2020 race who was, who was brilliant, passed away in between races. I'm not insulting the new guy, it's just that he is trying to stitch together a. I'm the true progressive and in Massachusetts you would not to get too much in a degree but in Massachusetts vote the electorate is registered Democrats and non, non enrolled independents. And polling has showed Moulton wins those guys he loses with with Democrats. That is his path. 50% by losing Democrats and winning. Those voters who are non ideologically are just tired of old people.

[B]

If I was Molten, if Molten's people called me, I would have said I would have and I guess there's still what a week to do it, a couple weeks to do it. I would have become anti ice's strongest soldier. I would have been chaining myself outside the ICE detention facility. He has done that.

[A]

He called for abolishing ICE early on, but not injured himself.

[B]

Yeah, but I want 110% energy on that and I think that's picking something like that as maybe a more compelling counter message for the folks in the center. So we'll be watching that one closely. Alexa. So Nate Silver, for all of the people have little nitpicks about him on social media. He rubs some people the wrong way, but he still seems to be the gold standard that people go to for these prognostications, at least the person that people are the most familiar with. He dropped his House and Senate prognostications yesterday and it was I think better for the Democrats, particularly on the Senate than a lot of people expected. He offered a 57% win probability for the Democrats to take the Senate, I think the house is like 80 plus percent. I think that people have a sense for where things are going in the House in the specific races. His model had Texas as a flip Talaria with a 63% chance of winning, which was I think the big headline number, El said is the favorite. Troy Jackson in Maine is the favorite. Sherrod Brown in Ohio is the favorite. Overwhelming favorites for the Democrats protecting the seats in North Carolina and Georgia both 90 plus percent for Cooper and Ossoff. And then he had the Republicans as the favorites narrowly in Iowa, Alaska and a couple of those other stretch seats. I think that that is maybe just slightly more bullish for the Democrats than conventional wisdom. I mean particularly Texas. I think that a lot of people are scared to, to the person putting their reputation out there that this is the time for blue Texas. Longest running streak of any state of not having a statewide victory for the Democrats, but pretty noteworthy. I don't know what's your sense kind of talking to people on the ground for whether Democrats are really kind of feeling like the Senate could be happening for them?

[A]

Well, one factor both parties know about is that unlike 2018 where Democrats had more money for their individual candidates, more money for their PACs, if you remember 2018 at the end, Paul Ryan said had literally keep going to the Adelson family to cut giant checks to fund a super pac, Republicans will have more money. I think Texas is viewed in that context is that donors do not want their money to go to Ken Paxton. And yet he's trying to beast this out and be outspent heavily by Talarico, be out spent on the air. I think also not without reading Nate's mind every primary, Brody's had the same Democratic primary problems, had the same strategy. We've figured we've got our nominee, we're going to find the most woke left wing things the Democrat has said, beat him up with that. We'll get a natural discourse going in the mainstream media. And I saw this Atel Rico several times but I talked with the media being flat, there's stuff that he has answered. He answered four or five times. Why did you say this about God being non binary, et cetera? Because it's always new to somebody and that didn't put him away. The hope was that that means that race is off, off the map. Now the math in Texas is it's, it's the money. But it's also what has Trump done to consolidate the Latino vote he got in in 2024? Maybe not that much. And so do the math. If Democrats go to their 2020 even numbers with Latino voters, 2018 would be better in Texas if they turn out the black vote, which there's the discourse of whether Tal can do that. But I feel like that might be a little bit over overrated by activists who show up and yell at him. And then white suburbanites, he, he has been doing great with them. And so you can stitch together 48% of the vote for Calorico, which is what Beto got. It's, I mean, a big part of it is getting back to that Latino vote, getting that the Asian vote. It makes sense to me. Alaska seems more promising for Democrats just because it's cheaper. Kaltola has one statewide. And not to get into the deep politics of Alaska, but it is not a super right wing state. It is not having new people moving from the Midwest to right wing suburbs in Alaska. So I think that that is a target is more promising.

[B]

Yeah, that was the Texas thing. I always loved that stat, which was that Ted Cruz won with the transplants. Yeah, yeah, Beto. I mean, it was narrow in both ways. But you know, there is something to that.

[A]

A lot of these states, every cycle there's a couple hundred thousand more Texas Republicans and they did same thing in Florida, which is even more intense. I do think in all these states though, it's funny. Republicans talk about their good recruiting for the cycle. They have avoided primaries, sure. But they've got candidates who are, it's, there's a little bit of Huber energy in who they've recruited. They have John Sununu, the former senator who voted for the Iraq war and has been out of politics for a generation in New Hampshire. Okay, better than a far right guy, but not exciting. Who's, you know, older than his opponent. You have Michael Whatley in North Carolina, who they say is a good recruit because he's been for primary, sure, against the popular governor. He hasn't really found his footing in Texas. Paxton's kind of, kind of a mess.

[B]

Yeah. I'll go even further than you. I think that because, you know, the media acts like the Democrats, only ones with agency. And like we're 10 years into Trump and nobody wants to do this anymore. The Republican recruitment has been basically bad this cycle. And Ashley Hinson in Iowa is a good, strong candidate, I think. But besides that, they're recruiting two models. You know, they have the establishment model of person that is not going to excite the Trump voter, the Mike Rogers type that is going to have all of Trump's baggage, but none of the positive. That's your Whatley and Mike Rogers. And then in several states they nominated kooks. And yesterday they nominated Michelle Tafoya, sideline reporter in Minnesota, Mike Collins, Ken Paxton for all of the kind of rending of garments about El Sayed and what happened to Maine. It's, it's, it's a pretty motley crew.

[A]

On the Republican side, for example, John Sununu's advertising. Now, his name is Sununu, his brother's a popular governor, but he's running as this sort of New Hampshire focused change agent. And you think you were the senator, you were the senator a long time ago. Yeah, back when, back when like the imac was a green apple colored thing and people's desk like you, you're not a change candidate. And so I was going to say that this is obvious but bears repeating, but every incumbent party's job is, let's turn this into a choice between the crazy opponents and our sensible policies. And because it worked for Biden sort of in 2022, Republicans think they can do it. But is it working? Is the thing is, like I said, they came out of the gate with Salarico saying, look how crazy this guy is in Iowa. Ashley Hinson just keeps pretending that Josh Turek is more liberal than he is. For example, she said that he wants girls and boys sports. I think it's down to a vote. He voted against because of the huge package of stuff and he's actually distanced himself on part of that issue. Going down that path is a little tricky because, not just because the particulars of the issue, but because how much do you want to go on the air with it, et cetera, et cetera. But basically they're just running against every Democrat. Like, this is the future. This is communism. They wanted Kong to win so they could say, see, they're winning everywhere. And what's the positive agenda? The positive agenda is we cut your taxes that we're not communists. Okay. I mean, I can see an election where it doesn't go very well for them. And everyone agrees that was silly. They should have tried to do something positive instead of just worrying about. Because in most of this it's other states. I mean, the whole Mike Lawler campaign is just, yes, I'm running against the centrist, but Zoron exists.

[B]

Okay, 2022, maybe that would have been better. All right, last thing, we just went through all the Senate states. The number that we always talk about the Democrats need to pick up is four seats to get to 51. Some concern they might need five, though, because there is the John Fetterman wildcard. And Fetterman did this weird thing yesterday where he talked about how Dave McCormick, the Davos, David McCormick, the Republican senator from the state, is his best friend and he would never go against him. And he's on Fox all the time shitting on Democrats. And you kind of wonder if he's the 51st Democrat, does he want to be the troublemaker that just annoys Democrats all the time or does, or does he want to like, do the thing that would most annoy them, which is flip and give the Senate back to the Republicans in exchange for something I said yesterday on social media. And I want to reiterate it here because I believe this. It's incumbent on Chuck Schumer if he's doing his job, to nominate one Democratic senator to become John Fetterman's friend. Like, somebody has to become his friend and nod when he complains about stuff, commiserate about the libtards, like, whatever it takes. He needs a friend that's a Democrat. Michael Bennett, you've got nothing to do. You tried to run for governor and failed. That's my nominee. But I'm open to other, other people. But like, what's your, you've been covering all that. Like, like what, what do you think is kind of the state of play there with Fetterman?

[A]

So looking down to 28, 28 primary I, I 1 of his many interviews over the last couple weeks, he was asked if he could win the election if it was held today. And he, and he said, yeah, probably. He, he wouldn't, he would not win a primary in Pennsylvania if it was held today. He, in the next cycle will need to start raising money. Who is going to give him money? It's not going to be almost any of the people who donated to him in 2022. A lot of buyer's remorse in Pennsylvania among Democrats, they did not nominate Conor Lamb. And so what is he looking at in 2028? Is it retirement? Is it being a pundit, is it winning reelection as a Republican, something that he lived through when Arlen Specter did a version of this and switched parties to win? He couldn't win because he's still going to be a Democrat who voted against every, every major Trump priority except the Iran war. And the other thing I think about his views is what is the point of a Republican Senate in 2027, 28 if Republicans hold the Senate or if they, if it's 50, 50 and he flips the point for Sam Alito and Clarence Thomas to retire, be replaced by young conservatives.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

That is the point. There's like nothing else that they really need to do. The House will be doing investigations. Is that important to him? I'm not in his life as much as he's changed the way he talks about things. What in John Fetterman's career in life suggests that he would want to cast of the vote for ensuring a Eileen Cannon 40 year old Supreme Court? I don't think there is one now. But I agree with you generally that so much of the Fetterman story is just that Democrats are mean to him. He's always been pro Israel. I think he really got radicalized on how he talks about progressives because they protested his home. They went to his house in, in Braddock with, he stood on the roof with his Israeli flag. That pissed him off. And so he does need some Democrat to tell him, we are not all like this. The guys yelling at you online are not at everybody. But this is a weakness of the way the, the left deals in rhetoric. Right. There are a lot of super angry people online. And when pushed, it's well online as real life. It is though when I go outside to the park, am I seeing people taking in all of nature? Am I seeing them on their phones? I'm seeing them on their phones. Everyone is online all the time. And so him being bullied all the time by leftists clearly made him hate the left more than he ever has in his life. Makes him sympathetic to Republicans because remember, Ben Terrace writes this New York magazine story about, about fetter men and McCormick is out the gate saying they're only doing this because of my brave friend's bravery. And he actually, he's great. We love him. If you're going to be unsympathetic to Fetterman, he's kind of been a, a little bit easily convinced by Republicans who are making fun of him as a vegetable five years ago now pretend he's a genius. But you're right, I think you're right that Democrats need to work on. I just, I'm just skeptical that he would end his career in politics, electoral politics, making sure that Republicans have a Supreme Court supermajority that will unwind most of what he ran on. I just think things, things happen. I always.

[B]

Okay, okay, well, I go. I hope you're right about that. But in the meantime, just to be safe, I don't know. Ben Ray. Lujan, what are you doing? Okay, take, take him to lunch.

[A]

All right. I mean, Joe Manchin's still hanging around. You take him on the yacht.

[B]

Take him to lunch.

[A]

Actually, I think for mansion. Where? Mansion. Liz, could you get up the river to. I don't know. I want to get into. At the very end of the conversation, river geography between West Virginia and Pittsburgh. But the point is, they'd have a

[B]

lot to talk about.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

All right. Weigel, I appreciate you doing this. On little sleep. Everybody go sign up for your newsletter Americana over at Semaphore. We'll be talking to you again soon. We'll be talking to you again soon. All right. See you.

[A]

Yeah, see you, man.

[B]

Everybody else will be back here tomorrow. Member mailbag. Send me some funny stuff. We'll see y' all then. Peace. A bird with the word came to me the sweetness of a honeycomb tree and now I look what's taking over me Couldn't fake it if I wanted

[A]

to I had to wake up just to make it through I got my

[B]

patience and I'm making do I learn my lessons from the ancient world the Bulwark Daily is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Dante DeCicco and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.