Adam Kinzinger: Don't Feed the Dictator

Summary

The Bulwark Podcast — Adam Kinzinger: Don't Feed the Dictator

Date: August 20, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Adam Kinzinger (former Republican congressman, founder of Country First, retired Air National Guard pilot)
Main Theme:
The episode explores the current state of American democracy, the threat of authoritarianism posed by Trump and his allies, Republican complacency, the ongoing war in Ukraine, the politicization of the National Guard, and what Democrats should do in response. The show blends pointed satire with somber warnings, insights from inside the Republican Party, and practical recommendations for the pro-democracy coalition.

---

1. False Accusations and Conspiracies Against Kinzinger

Timestamps: 00:43–03:25

• The podcast kicks off with a satirical riff on a fake news report claiming that Adam Kinzinger is under FBI investigation for supposed illicit funds tied to his January 6th committee work.
  • Kinzinger jokes about the absurdity:

    "If I had $108 million, I would be in an island right now…$108 million would allow me to walk away from [politics]." — Adam Kinzinger [01:31]

  • The group mocks the proliferation of conspiracy theories and how people are quick to believe random accusations.
  • Kinzinger notes how these narratives lead to personal threats, dismissing their seriousness but expressing frustration at the culture of intimidation.

---

2. Why Republican Lawmakers Won’t Stand Up Against Trump

Timestamps: 03:32–08:27

• Miller and Kinzinger discuss excuses GOP leaders make for not opposing Trump, including personal safety concerns.
• Kinzinger is unsparing in his criticism:

  "Not only are you part of the problem, you are absolutely weak. And go find a different job…If your concern truly is like, gosh, I don't want death threats, and so going to vote this way to make Trump happy..." — Adam Kinzinger [04:27]

• Kinzinger contrasts the risks American politicians face with those taken by public servants in countries with genuine threats of violence or assassination.
• He emphasizes legacy and personal morality:

  "At the end of your life…what do these people think they're going to think of themselves?" [05:38]

• He notes his own uncommon last name and the impossibility of hiding from history, underscoring the need for personal courage.

---

3. Generational Accountability and Compartmentalization

Timestamps: 06:00–08:27

• Miller and Kinzinger reflect on how future generations will judge today's political decisions, particularly in light of January 6th.
• Kinzinger notes the fear among lawmakers of being ostracized by their political "tribe":

  "You can almost get no senators or congressmen to turn against their tribe. I think people fear being excommunicated from their tribe more than they fear even death." — Adam Kinzinger [08:20]

---

4. Ukraine, Security Guarantees, and Trump’s Russia Policy

Timestamps: 10:37–21:08

• Discussion moves to the Russia-Ukraine war and the efficacy of proposed "security guarantees" for Ukraine.
• Kinzinger eviscerates Trump's approach as both weak and self-serving:

  "Donald Trump said to Vladimir Putin, here's my red line. Okay, never mind, I'm going to cross it…He emasculates himself on TV in front of the world." — Adam Kinzinger [11:13]

• On the substance of security guarantees:

  "Ukraine had a security guarantee in 1994…With a security guarantee. Obviously, that wasn't done. So…the question is, is there a point of a security guarantee? Maybe. I have a hard time believing that's going to happen." — Adam Kinzinger [12:37]

• Critiques Ben Shapiro's characterization of Trump's Ukraine strategy as a "masterstroke":

  "If there was an Article 5 type security guarantee, that would be…a masterstroke…But for us to say it's a masterstroke for Ukraine to give away their land for a security guarantee…It's at best a truce. At worst, it's a defeat by Ukraine." — Adam Kinzinger [14:28]

• Kinzinger and Miller call out the absurdity of U.S. politicians minimizing what’s at stake for Ukraine, likening the loss of Donetsk to the U.S. losing east Florida.

---

5. Understanding Security Guarantees and Putin’s Endgame

Timestamps: 18:38–21:08

• Miller pushes on the vagaries of "security guarantees" and why Putin would ever accept arrangements similar to NATO protections for Ukraine.
• Kinzinger outlines the pitfalls:

  "Ukraine…is going to need to see something on paper. Do you think Vladimir Putin will get there? I don't think so. Unless Vladimir Putin knows he is going to lose and this is the only way to prevent…a counteroffensive…" — Adam Kinzinger [20:00]

• Rebuilding and reinvestment in Ukraine is impossible without real guarantees; otherwise, investors will flee, prolonging poverty and migration.

---

6. National Guard: Politicization and Risks

Timestamps: 24:34–32:14

• Criticism of the use of National Guard deployments for political theater—states sending National Guard to D.C. at Trump’s behest.
• Kinzinger, himself a former Air National Guard pilot, explains the Guard’s dual state/federal role and how politicization undermines morale and recruitment:

  "You've taken a military force that usually has 90% approval by the American public, and you've made it partisan…Trump is doing everything he can to destroy that." — Adam Kinzinger [27:59]

• Concerns about red and blue states creating their own partisan forces ("a red army, a blue army") and implications for election integrity.
• Kinzinger warns about voter intimidation if Guardsmen are posted near polling stations:

  "Is having a couple of military guys at the polling station going to encourage [marginalized communities] to go vote or will they just take a pass that day? That's the kind of voter suppression thing I think we should worry about a little bit." — Adam Kinzinger [31:45]

---

7. Trump’s “MAGA Communism” & Government Control of Industry

Timestamps: 32:14–36:57

• Miller details Trump administration plans to take a 10% stake in Intel, with government pressure on other firms to use its chips.
• Kinzinger compares the policy to socialist and authoritarian models:

  "This is the federal government having a significant seat on the board of private companies. And that is no different than what you see in at least socialism. Right. Real socialist countries." — Adam Kinzinger [33:12]

• Points out GOP hypocrisy—Obama’s smaller green energy investments were attacked as anti-capitalist, while Trump’s far bolder moves get a pass.

---

8. What Should Democrats Do? Messaging & Oversight

Timestamps: 37:00–43:46

• Kinzinger criticizes congressional Democrats for lacking coordinated, impactful messaging and not seizing visual moments to challenge Trump (e.g., during the DOJ transition).
• He suggests bold, aggressive oversight tactics, referencing Republican Tea Party years as a model:

  "You have to do that every day…it's all about visual. It's all…about street fighting…Where is that moment with the Democrats? This is the worst bill to ever pass the House of Representatives. And I don't see it." — Adam Kinzinger [38:23]

• Strongly urges Democrats to proactively warn foreign governments and businesses not to participate in Trump-era corruption, hinting at consequences if/when Democrats are back in power.

---

9. Fiscal Irresponsibility and Ballooning Deficits

Timestamps: 43:53–46:12

• The hosts address the massive growth in U.S. debt under Trump, now surpassing 120% of GDP.
• Kinzinger is blunt about the damage:

  "Republicans are not the party of fiscal responsibility and I would certainly encourage Democrats…be the party of fiscal responsibility and you can do that through increased revenue." — Adam Kinzinger [45:22]

• Describes how tariffs are further hurting long-term prospects for sustainable budgets.

---

10. Lighter Segment: Pull-Ups, Rumors, and Gossip

Timestamps: 46:17–52:26

• Humorous critique of Secretary of Defense Pete Buttigieg’s pull-up technique versus RFK Jr.:

  "If you do underhand pull ups, that's what the girls are allowed to do. The guys do overhand pull ups…he's like hoinking around his legs…" — Adam Kinzinger [46:28]

• Jokes about DC gossip—MAGA figures in the closet, past rumors involving Aaron Schock, and the imperative of authenticity:

  "All of us wear masks to some extent. And it's like all that does…it's destructive…The more masks you can take off, the better." — Adam Kinzinger [52:12]

---

11. Exit Interview: De-Radicalization and Community (Jason Riddle Story)

Timestamps: 52:26–55:57

• Kinzinger discusses his interview with Jason Riddle, a January 6th participant who left MAGA behind after jail and sobriety.
• Key insight: The MAGA movement is more about belonging and community than policy.

  "What drives people to MAGA is isolation and loneliness, and it gives him a sense of purpose." — Adam Kinzinger [55:10]

• Kinzinger urges those outside the MAGA world to “embrace [ex-MAGA] in community,” and not reject defectors due to their past.

---

Notable Quotes

• "If your concern truly is like, gosh, I don't want death threats, and so going to vote this way to make Trump happy...Not only are you part of the problem, you are absolutely weak. And go find a different job."
  — Adam Kinzinger [04:27]

• "You can almost get no senators or congressmen to turn against their tribe. I think people fear being excommunicated from their tribe more than they fear even death."
  — Adam Kinzinger [08:20]

• "Donald Trump said to Vladimir Putin, here's my red line. Okay, never mind…He emasculates himself on TV in front of the world."
  — Adam Kinzinger [11:13]

• "You’ve taken a military force that usually has 90% approval by the American public, and you've made it partisan....Trump is doing everything he can to destroy that."
  — Adam Kinzinger [27:59]

• "This is the federal government having a significant seat on the board of private companies. And that is no different than what you see in at least socialism."
  — Adam Kinzinger [33:12]

• "What drives people to MAGA is isolation and loneliness, and it gives him a sense of purpose."
  — Adam Kinzinger [55:10]

---

Segment Timestamps

• 00:43–03:25: Satire of fake allegations against Kinzinger
• 03:32–08:27: Cowardice among GOP, fear vs. legacy
• 10:37–21:08: Ukraine, Trump’s Russia policy, the reality of “security guarantees”
• 24:34–32:14: National Guard politicization and voter intimidation concerns
• 32:14–36:57: “MAGA communism”—Government equity in Intel, authoritarian threats
• 37:00–43:46: Messaging missteps and oversight: what Democrats should do
• 43:53–46:12: U.S. debt, fiscal hypocrisy, tariff damage
• 46:17–52:26: Pull-up critique, closeted MAGA gossip, authenticity
• 52:26–55:57: De-radicalization (Jason Riddle), belonging as MAGA’s true draw

---

Summary Takeaways

• GOP lawmakers’ cowardice is less about personal safety and more about tribal loyalty and fear of ostracism.
• Trump’s foreign policy is both strategic and dangerously erratic, especially concerning Ukraine/Russia.
• The politicization of nonpartisan institutions, especially the National Guard, is a dangerous trend that threatens election integrity and military morale.
• Democrats must act more aggressively, using oversight and clear messaging, especially about corruption and Trump’s threats to democracy.
• The U.S. is moving towards a dangerous blend of crony capitalism and state intervention that betrays Republican rhetoric about free markets.
• The most effective way to de-radicalize ex-MAGA supporters is to offer genuine community and belonging, not scorn.

---

This episode features candid, sometimes darkly humorous analysis of trends threatening American democracy, along with a passionate plea for principle and authentic public service.

Transcript

[Lowes Announcer]

Lowes knows to bring your vision to life. It's important to find the right color. That's why Mylo's Rewards members get a free Valspar paint or exterior stain sample to test your look to confidently refresh your space. Offer Valid in store only 87 to 8 20. Limit one per customer while supplies last. Discount taken at time of purchase. See associate for details. Rewards program subject to terms and conditions. [e-mail] Terms subject to change.

[Tim Miller]

Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. Delighted to welcome back one of our Green Jacket guests. He's a former Republican congressman from Illinois. He's a retired Air National Guard pilot, the founder of country first, and you can find them on Substack. It's Adam Kinzinger. What's up, man?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Hey, what's going on? Good to be with you, man.

[Tim Miller]

It is good to hang with you. I'm sorry to start with some uncomfortable.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

News, though, but I do think we need to talk about it.

[Tim Miller]

I saw a breaking report from Sparks N123. It said this. The FBI sent an official referral to the Justice Department seeking a grand jury to indict Adam Kinzinger. He has no explanation for the 108.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Million he acquired when he joined the January 6th kill committee. Wondering if you have an official statement on this, if you heard anything from the grand jury.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Listen, man, I saw that yesterday. And here's the best part about it is, like, underneath that comment, there are people that are like, it's about time. You know?

[Tim Miller]

Good.

[Adam Kinzinger]

I've always wondered, and I'm like, dude, do you guys really believe this? So, no, I haven't received anything to the grand jury. And you know what, Tim? If I had $108 million, I would be in an island right now. I believe in American politics, but $108 million would allow me to walk away from it. And I might do that.

[Tim Miller]

I was going to say the thing that pissed me off. And at first I was sad for.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

You and for your family and for your young child that you might be going to jail.

[Tim Miller]

But after that, I was pissed. I was like, why didn't he fly me private to Chicago for live show? I was like, I haven't been invited on any jets. You know, I want some of this.

[Adam Kinzinger]

And here's the best thing to think about it. Like, okay, let's say if people believe it, who, what, and why would I get 108 million DOL dollars for serving on the January 6th community? But I love how when somebody made it up. They did 108 because it's not like a hundred or fifty. It's more believable if it's exact. So ladies and gentlemen, let me just publicly say here, I've not received anything from the FBI. I'm not worth $108 million.

[Tim Miller]

Although I wish a lot of chatter.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Out there though about how they're coming for you. Have you, are you worried at all?

[Tim Miller]

Does, does Deputy Dan have you shaken in your boots?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I mean look, it's been, I think close to what, eight years? Well, since the advent of Q that I've been, you know, people have been threatening to send me to get moan so I have all my plans together. I mean, you know, I've got a preferred bunk mate if we need, you know, and, but no, I haven't heard anything.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

You no longer have a security clearance. So they've taken that away several times.

[Adam Kinzinger]

That I didn't have. Anyway, that's the best is like I retired. I got out of the, out of Congress and like they don't re. I, I think they realize it like you don't take your security clearance with you. It's not like you just have it right. You lose it with Job and so I've had it suspended twice the non existent one.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Congrats. Yeah, I saw James Clapper got it suspended again yesterday. It's like a free press race for them. I like the serious and we'll get to actual news.

[Tim Miller]

Like the serious subjects of this. We're joking but like something that pisses me off is that you occasionally hear people, you know, alibi for people for.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Republicans in Congress, for business leaders and stuff that they like, don't speak out against Trump because they're worried about their safety or because these guys might come for them, etc.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

How do you think about all that?

[Tim Miller]

Because you're out there. As I mentioned, you got a family.

[Adam Kinzinger]

I, I hate when I hear that. It makes me angry because, well, first off, let's just take away from us, right?

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Yeah.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Members of Congress in the Senate usually travel to places like Iraq, we traveled to Afghanistan, you know, all these kind of like I guess I would call them struggling democracies. And we meet members of Parliament all the time that literally will be assassinated or attempted assassinations have already occurred and, and they are there fighting for their country, you know, the Iraqi parliamentarian or whatever. And so when I hear this at home, it angers me because look, you can make more money and have a better life if you leave the house and The Senate, if your concern truly is like, gosh, I don't want death threats, and so going to vote this way to make Trump happy, not only are you part of the problem, you are absolutely weak. And go find a different job, because I promise you that there is somebody that probably believes what you believe, but is willing to stand up to people. Look, here's the thing. If somebody's leveling death threats against you, 99.9% of the time, they're bluffing, because they're not going to level a threat, you know, before they do anything. It's just, this is what it's like. Hollywood and politics draw out the crazies, and you have to make a decision. If you're to put yourself in that arena, you have to be willing to stand to the pressure. So I, It. It infuriates me because there are people that have taken real threats because they've done the right thing. And, you know, you take the. Whatever. The guy from North Carolina, the senator who's. Oh, wo. Is me. Yeah, Tillis, like, fine, dude, quit. He's quitting, but he's still not taking a courageous stand. It's unbelievable, right? The thing I don't get, Tim, is people have to look at them like, there is going to be a point at the end of your life where hopefully you have a chance to reflect. What do these people think they're going to think of themselves? That's what I wonder.

[Tim Miller]

It's a great question. I don't have a great answer to it. And I think a lot of it.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Is that the bubbles have gotten so thick that they're, like, not really even exposed to what a counter view would.

[Tim Miller]

Be, because I was always like, what about the kids? It was, you know, during that first term, it was like, January 6th, the.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Images, you know, Lafayette Square, whatever. Who knows what horrible images we have ahead of us.

[Tim Miller]

I was always like, you know, if.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

You have young kids, some of these guys are old, so maybe their kids are grown, they don't care. But, like, but grandkids, young kids, grandkids.

[Tim Miller]

It's like. And they're in high school. Like, I think about, like, things that.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I learned about in high school that, like, I didn't live through, like, civil rights or something, where, you know, whatever.

[Tim Miller]

Like, back at the time, there were people, obviously, that rationalized all this. But then you eventually get to a point where it, like, things get flattened, and all you learn is, like, you just see the pictures and it's like, your defense, I think, is going to be pretty weak. In the face of your 15 year old grandchild or child, when they're like, wait a minute. So you're on the side of the people, like with the Confederate flags, attacking the cops, that was the side you were on. And they're like, well, you have to understand, it was complicated. The President. There was also some Black Lives Matter protesters who did bad things. It's like, so that's the part that.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I don't really get. I guess they just don't think about it. Compartmentalization.

[Adam Kinzinger]

I don't think your grandkids are going to care that you were worried about your reelection. That's the thing is like, I'll tell people because, you know, folks will ask me, what was the difference between you and other members of Congress and January 6th? And I'm like, well, I don't know what the difference is, but I do know I. And I consciously thought about this, which is Kinzinger is not a very common last name. And so when Christian, my three and a half year old, is learning someday about this, which he will, he's obviously going to read my name in some capacity. I can't blend in and say, that wasn't me. And so then I've got to sit down with him at some point as his father and talk to him about doing the right thing, about standing alone, about courage, about morality. And how can I do that when he can just literally open the history book and say, okay, dad, is this a do as I say, not as a not as I do thing? Because I'm reading what you did right here and I just don't, I don't understand it. And, and lastly is like, every member of the House and Senate goes when they get elected. And I really believe it's almost every one of them. They like fantasize about this time when they are so compelled by something that their Mr. Smith goes to Washington and they stand alone on the Senate floor and they blah, blah, blah. Very few people get an opportunity to do that. And a fraction of those that do actually do it. You can almost get no senators or congressmen to turn against their tribe. I think people fear being excommunicated from their tribe more than they fear even death.

[Tim Miller]

It's very optimistic that you think Christian.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Will read about what you did as opposed to having like, you know, a little AI robot. Claude, tell him, brief him.

[Adam Kinzinger]

It'll be zoomed into his brain.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Yeah, exactly. Neural linked.

[Tim Miller]

Y'.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

All.

[Tim Miller]

Everybody's into normcore these days.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I don't know if you know about normcore, but it's kind of just staples. Basic colors, basic styles, but done really well.

[Tim Miller]

You know, that's what, that's what the kids are doing these days. They're back to norm.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I'm sure, I'm sure it's going to change any minute now.

[Tim Miller]

But while Normcore is in, if you're.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Looking for basics, you got to go.

[Tim Miller]

With our sponsor at Quinn's. Quinn's has the closet staples you'll want to reach for over and over. Like cozy cashmere and cotton sweaters from just 50 bucks. Breathable flow knit polos and comfortable lightweight pants that somehow work for both weekend hangs and dressed up dinners. The best part, everything with Quint is half the cost of similar brands. By working directly with top artisans and cutting out the middleman, quints gives you luxury pieces without the markup. I just got a new batch of quints in. I don't know if I've worn any of them for you guys yet.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I'll do it, I'll do it later this week. Maybe next week.

[Tim Miller]

You can see what I'm see what I'm working with. And the other good thing, quintess, I think I've mentioned this before is they got kids stuff. Kids, basics. You know, you want basics for the kids, make it easy. I don't know, maybe you're like one.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Of my friend's kids who is I think six and just already styled to the max. I love this boy. I went to see him this weekend and he's showing me his new sneaker collection. He's already matched to the max and.

[Tim Miller]

I'm sure we could find him some good stuff with Quince. But for a lot of kids, you know, you want to make it easy for him.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

You know, they're not all going to be high fashion at age 6. You know, you want them to have regular kids interests but look like they're high fashion. Quints is the spot for you.

[Tim Miller]

Keep it classic and cool with long lasting staples from quince. Go to quince.com the Bulwark for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. That's Q U I-n C e.com the Bulwark to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com the Bulwark all right, let's get.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Into the actual news.

[Tim Miller]

I guess biggest picture, I'm curious your.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Take on where things stand in the negotiations via Ukraine. What Trump's favorite word? His aspirational try lat.

[Tim Miller]

He like learned the word trilat recently.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

And so now he keeps saying it over and over again. What do you think about the state of play?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Well, let's first off say that Donald Trump put down a marker and said, if we don't have a ceasefire to begin negotiations, there's going to be these massive secondary sanctions that didn't happen. And so automatically, at the very beginning, Donald Trump said to Vladimir Putin, here's my red line. Okay, never mind, I'm going to cross it. Vladimir Putin, we all know this, knows how to play Donald Trump probably more than Melania knows how to play Donald Trump. I mean, what we saw in Alaska was disgusting. I'm watching some of our conservative friends trying to say that this flyover at the Alaska Air Base was all about showing strength. And, oh, my gosh, I can't believe you had the courage to put a B2 flying over Vladimir Putin. No, that was a sign of respect. A flyover is a sign of respect. So he rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin, embarrassed himself, emasculated himself on tv.

[Tim Miller]

So you're saying it wasn't a flex.

[Adam Kinzinger]

It wasn't a flex.

[Tim Miller]

Flex.

[Adam Kinzinger]

There's no way that was a flex. And. And so, you know, he emasculates himself on. On TV in front of the world. And then all of a sudden, Europe. The fact that all of Europe basically had to come to the White House the other day is embarrassing enough because it shows that they don't believe that the President is consistent and they have to be there to strengthen his spine around Zelensky. So let's take aside his affection for Russia and just look at him and say he is so malleable that all of Europe had to come to make sure that he wasn't manipulated. Then he walks away in the middle of that meeting to call his friend Vladimir Putin, because he wants to be respectful and not call Putin in front of these folks. And in the meantime, we have this back and forth about, is there going to be a security guarantee? Let's think about something. Ukraine had a security guarantee in 1994. The Budapest memorandum signed by the UK, the United States, Russia and Ukraine said, you give up your nuclear weapons, we will make sure your territorial integrity integrity stays intact. With a security guarantee. Obviously, that wasn't done. So the question is now, is there a point of a security guarantee? Maybe. I have a hard time believing that's going to happen. I have a hard time believing that Putin is going to, you know, acquiesce to us or European troops there.

[Tim Miller]

Can we just sit on the security guarantee for a second and then we'll Come back to that, because something caught my eye recently. One of my competitors in the podcast.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Space, one of the more quasi normal.

[Tim Miller]

People on the right, low bar, Ben Shapiro, who you know, I've.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Ben Shapiro's been coddling up to Trump in so many ways to do a fundraiser for him. So he's been awful.

[Tim Miller]

But like on Ukraine, he has opposed.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Trump from time to time and given a real view, you know, he's wanted the US to support Ukraine.

[Tim Miller]

So I was intrigued to see this.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Little thumbnail across my screen.

[Tim Miller]

Could Trump's all caps masterstroke end the Russia Ukraine war? Democrats have been bamboozled by Trump again. I wanna just play for you a.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Little bit about what he thinks the masterstroke was.

[Ben Shapiro (quoted)]

But the fact that President Trump is willing to hold Russia's feet to the fire by even talking about these kind of significant security guarantees is a major move from the President. And pretending that that's a pro Russia move is silly. If there were a significant security guarantee, a sort of NATO light, an Article 5 light approach to Ukraine in exchange for territorial concessions in Donbass, that would be a masterstroke from the President of the United States because otherwise this thing keeps going.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

His voice is awful. I don't know how people listen to that. It's like unbearable.

[Tim Miller]

But anyway, besides that, how about the substance? What would be your react, what would.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Be your response to that, that point of view?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Well, I agree with him in the extent that if there was an Article 5 type security guarantee, that would be obviously a masterstroke. That's a stupid word, but whatever, let's call it that. Where I break with him is Donald Trump is, is not basically saying we're going to do a security guarantee. This is a. What, what is it that A Weiss calls him Dim Philby, that this is his comment and some people around him now, and maybe Donald Trump is willing to do a security guarantee. That's good. Okay, I'm not trying to discourage from that, but this idea that then you have to vacate the Donbas in order to get the security guarantee. If Ukraine makes that decision, that's their decision. But it came. The Institute for the Study Award did a study that said basically for Russia to take the rest Donbass at the current rate, they've taken everything so far, it would take basically 2 million more men and 4 years. And so it's not like it's just this little tiny area that Ukraine would just be like, okay, you can have a couple of feet here of land. It's also an area where there's a pretty extensive defensive belt, which is what they're holding right now, which is very hard for Russia to get through. So, look, Ukraine can make that decision if they want to, but for us to say it's a masterstroke for Ukraine to give away their land for a security guarantee. It's not a masterstroke. That's a. At best, a truce. At worst, it's a defeat by Ukraine. And Ukraine is winning this war. This is the thing, Tim, I want you to imagine when we invaded Iraq in 2003. So put your opinion of the invasion aside and just say, okay, imagine now it's 2006 and a half, and we occupy 20% of Iraq. We've lost a million men. We did occupy 35% of Iraq two weeks into the war, but then they kicked us out. So now it's 20, and we've lost a million men. Is there a soul in the world that would say the United States is winning this war or is inevitably going to win this war?

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

No.

[Adam Kinzinger]

That is exactly the position Russia is in. They've lost. You know what? The second biggest military in the world owns 20% of Ukraine after having 30% of it, losing a million men. The idea that they're, like, on the edge of winning. I've heard this for three and a half years. You have to every month. They're always on the edge of a breakthrough. Ukraine can defend itself. And the ultimate way to get to an end of this war is not to feed the dictator, feeding the dictator never works. It's to say, we are standing with Ukraine, they will defeat Russia, and then that compels Russia to the table. This has to be a negotiation. Sure, but it has to. It has to be a negotiation with Russia understanding that they're not going to achieve their goals.

[Tim Miller]

I got a kick out of that.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

When you're like this small little sliver that they pretending like it's a small little sliver they want to take. In the Donbas, there was a report from the ft. Those guys have done the best coverage, I think, of the Ukraine conflict just from a straight news standpoint. They have this little anecdote that apparently at the White House meeting on Monday, Zelensky compared giving away Donetsk to giving away Eastern Florida.

[Tim Miller]

Like, showed a map to Trump, and.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Apparently this resonated with him. It's like, oh, wait, it'd be. You would mean we would lose Fort Lauderdale.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know that. I don't know that we could do that. That is, like, the level of what.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

That we're dealing with here.

[Adam Kinzinger]

I guess, you know, the problem is, is as Americans, we have this kind of, and I'm guilty of it too, this predisposed bias to think of every other country as small. And therefore, if you look at a map and you see a little bit of red taken away or added, it's like, eh, whatever, no big deal. It's a small country. Well, Ukraine's the size of Texas. Geographically, it's the largest, you know, country in Europe. This is not a joke. And again, the area that Russia is talking about taking, and let's keep in mind their initial goal was to take over all of Ukraine in three days. But the initial area, the area they're talking about taking is a significantly important area because it's where Ukraine can defend itself best. I don't know if it was Weiss on your show or whatever that compared it to the Sudeten land, but it's basically like you would give away the forts in the defensive line. And then the question is, what if a security guarantee now, is it an Article 5 NATO thing? Do we honestly believe right now if Latvia or Estonia was attacked that Donald Trump would follow through on Article 5 in NATO? I don't know.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I don't.

[Tim Miller]

And the other thing is, do we also. The Putin. This is the thing I don't understand about this conversation that I just, I.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Feel like people are just throwing around terms like security guarantee, and there's no.

[Tim Miller]

Like, detail like, what exactly do you mean? Because why would Putin. If Putin's whole thing is that the.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Root cause of this war was that Ukraine was going to join NATO, which is stupid bullshit or whatever.

[Tim Miller]

But if that's like, his position, okay, well then why would he be okay with an essential. What did Ben Shapiro call it? Article 5 light.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Like Article 5 without the name. You know, basically, why would he be okay with that?

[Tim Miller]

And then there was some discussion I.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Saw in one of these, you know, conservative hawk sites are still pretending Donald Trump's a hawk about how, like, we.

[Tim Miller]

Would do air protection of Ukraine. I'm like, really? You think that Bannon and the MAGA base are going to be for us.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Flying jets over Ukraine and getting shot at? I don't think so.

[Adam Kinzinger]

They're already freaking out. They're already freaking out about it. And I mean, look, you know, I've done some news hits on it, and the question is always, you know, boots on the ground. Boots on the ground, which is a stupid term, but regardless, boot. Would America put boots on the ground? Like, it's this huge red line, Look, America has boots on the ground in Baltics right now. I don't know if they're actually have a rotation in there, but occasionally we put a rotation in the Baltics and it's 100, 200 troops that could not hold the Russians back. But they exist for one reason, because they're a tripwire. The Russians will not attack with US Troops there because they don't want to trip the whole military. And so that's what we're talking about, a security guarantee. But also a security guarantee could be as simple as, hey, we'll give you aid. That's what they're arguing. When people argue that we actually held the Budapest memorandum, they're saying that, well, by the, the fact that we aided Ukraine is that security guarantee. So Ukraine, who has a huge mistrust for things like security guarantees, is going to need to see something on paper. Do you think Vladimir Putin will get there? I don't think so. Unless Vladimir Putin knows he is going to lose and this is the only way to prevent like a counteroffensive that's going to kick him out of territories that he occupies. Now, one of the most important reasons for the security guarantee, even beyond just we don't want the war to start again, is we have to rebuild Ukraine. The world has to rebuild Ukraine. If you're a company and you want to invest in Ukraine, which by the way, is an amazing country to invest in post war, is your board going to allow you if there is no guarantee that the war is not going to resume? No. And so what do you have now? Poverty. You have more mass migration. You have to have those guarantees so that you can rebuild the country.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

My buddy J Mart has an article in Politico this morning, basically saying that the Putin posture on this is going to continue to be stall, stall, stall as it has been. And that's worked to date with Trump.

[Tim Miller]

And so, you know, Trump needs a.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

New ultimatum to potentially get him to move. She might not anyway, but let's just, let's just play that out. And that he has this bill, that Graham and Blumenthal bill with 84 senators co signing it, which is this kind of maximum pressure sanctions campaign against Putin that's sort of in the sword of Damocles. But the sword is like very high in the sky and nobody's really afraid that it's going to fall anytime soon.

[Tim Miller]

JMR just goes like, let's bring that sword down right over Putin's head. I don't know if that'll work.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

And I don't even know if Jonathan and Graham would go through with it. But what do you think of that?

[Adam Kinzinger]

From what I understand about the legislation, there are some loopholes which allows the president, you know, huge waiver power. And so that's a little worrisome. But I mean, look, it's. Is it going to be the thing that compels Russia immediately? Not necessarily, but what it will do is basically take away a significant amount of Russia's financing for the war, which continues. I mean, the thing is, is their economy is. Is teetering right now. It doesn't mean that in a week it's going to be the, you know, Soviet and collapse in 91. But, like, they have huge inflation. They've actually had to pull back on bonuses they're giving to soldiers. My good friend Sean Penner did a. He is a British soldier that was captured by the Russians, but he did a big documentary about how they're recruiting people out of Africa with promises of visas and then, you know, tricking them and putting them into the war. And so these people are coming up not knowing. So Russia is very much struggling. There's a reason they're not doing mechanized assaults anymore, because they're out of tanks. And so this would be important to basically compel those that are still financing Russia to stop doing that. Is it going to change Russia overnight? Probably not. But, you know, who knows? Because Putin. Putin is smart enough to recognize his tenuous position.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, Canada. Hey, y'. All. We're going on tour this fall. We're going up north. I demanded it. I wanted to support our Canadian listeners and friends being attacked by this administration. So we're going to do the whole deal. Mounties, Tim Hortons, maple syrup. I'm going to be drinking Seagrams on stage. Those Seagrams Canadian anymore? I said that in the last episode, and I think they might have been bought by a multinational corporation. Anyway, I'm going to have a Canadian cocktail on stage. You guys can tell me what I should do. And yeah, we get to all be an allyship against our terrible mega president. So come check out me, Sarah Longwell, Canada's favorite Sam Stein. We're going to be in Toronto in September. Want to see you there, especially if you're Canadian. But if you're American, you want to go support our friends up north and come hang, we'd like to see you, too. If you aren't up for stamping your passport, you can catch Me, Sarah, and JBL in D.C. or New York City in October as well. Anyone can grab tickets or more information now@the bulwark.com events. They didn't tell me to tell you.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

This in the ad read.

[Tim Miller]

But since you're a friend, since I'm looking up for you, I'm letting you know that I was looking at the pre sales. That Toronto ticket's gonna be a hot ticket, baby. So if you want to go to.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Toronto, I jump on that now.

[Tim Miller]

You should jump on all of them.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Now, but Toronto in particular. Take a look at your schedule, see if you can make it. Hope to see you in Toronto once again. It's the bulwark.com events.

[Tim Miller]

Let's talk about the National Guard some.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I went off on YouTube yesterday. Folks who missed it on this are my National Guard.

[Tim Miller]

Yours too, I guess.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Texas, Louisiana, sending people to D.C. national Guard troops, I think Louisiana, we're sending 135 troops. This is to me just preposterous in every way. We're in hurricane season. National Guard is big support on that. And also what are they going to do? Sit outside without any arms outside Union Station in their fatigues looking like that? Really a good use of our resources.

[Tim Miller]

So I want to get your take.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

On how the National Guard's been used. You wrote about this a little bit in your substack, how Trump is undermining the National Guard in America.

[Tim Miller]

I just want to start like for.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

People who are listeners who don't know anybody who is in the National Guard, just like talk about what that is, what that job is. Because I know that you were in the National Guard for a while.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah. So basically the National Guard, and I'll try to keep it at 50,000 foot. They are a reserve component. So they're the reserves federally of a different military branch. So I was in the Air National Guard. So we were an Air Force Reserve. So I had a federal commission as a federal officer. And so I'll get to the second part in a second. Army National Guard is a reserve component of the Army. There's also Army Reserves and Air Force Reserves. But those National Guard components also have a commander in chief who is the governor. And when they're not under federal orders, they're under the commander of the governor. What that does is it allows constitutionally that reserve force to be used by the governor for sandbagging. You know, know we know what the Guard is used for, riot control, stuff like that. When the president activates the Guard, they are federal troops at that moment. No different than like the 82nd Airborne. If a governor activates them, then they can do all that Stuff according to the Constitution. So when the President activated the Guard in LA and Governor Newsom did not consent, they were federal troops, they were not National Guard troops. Okay, clear as mud. But the reality is most people join the Guard for a few reasons. Number one, helps pay for college. Number two, they want to serve their community, or it's extra income, you know, or the patriotism. And so you do one week in a month, two weeks a year. Sure. Now, as an Air Guard pilot, we did a lot more than that. But as your typical Guardsman, that's what you do. One week in a month, two weeks a year. You go through basic training and everything like a regular army soldier.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

And what are you doing those two weeks a year? Most of the time you're doing training.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, it's usually in the summer. Yeah, usually going to, like a camp somewhere. And you do like, you know, your maneuvers or your job or whatever it is basically to stay kind of current. And so you may get activated. And when you're activated, keep in mind, every one of these Guard soldiers, most of them have a civilian job. You know, maybe a doctor, maybe a nurse, maybe a police officer. When you're activated, you have to leave that civilian job to go to the Guard. And so it's very disturbing to families. Right. Especially single parents who all of a sudden now have to find child care. It's disturbing to employers and ultimately to people that join the Guard that may be on the edge of re enlisting are going to be like, I can't keep doing this. This is nuts. And so it's terrible for recruiting. So you've taken a military force that usually has 90% approval by the American public, and you've made it partisan. And these guardsmen and women don't want to be made partisan. And so it's very frightening because again, the last kind of institution we have in this country that is bipartisan is the military. And Trump is doing everything he can to destroy that.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Yeah. And that is the crazy part about just, again, it's only 130 people only. But they're humans, they're Louisiana citizens. There's same number of people in all these other states.

[Tim Miller]

And it's like you're taking them away from businesses, hurting the economy and the community. You're taking them away from their families, as you mentioned, like, we're back to school time. It's like, for what? And now you're sending them to D.C.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

To make Daddy Trump happy. And then they get there.

[Tim Miller]

This is not what they're trained to do. Right. Like so what, like, what are these guys doing?

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Like, you see the pictures of them just, like, sitting outside Union Station in their fatigues, like, drinking Gatorade. And it's like, well, what.

[Tim Miller]

What is this for?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah. And by the way, the. The only military units that are qualified for this are military police units, which, by the way, most of the people activated are not military police. But the interesting thing, too, is, like, the D.C. guard, when that was activated, there are a significant number of people that were activated with the DC Guard that were DC Cops that have to leave their DC Cop job and leave that open to come and sit in the National Guard.

[Tim Miller]

By the way, this makes sense for people in national security roles. Like, I haven't confirmed it, so I just anonymize it. But I have some tips for people who have. Who are in federal government national security.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Roles, you know, who are taken out.

[Tim Miller]

Of those, like, serious jobs.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

And now instead, they're patrolling the mall to make sure that, you know, there's no littering outside the Washington Monument.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah. And the worst part about the fact that it's red states that are sending the Guard is, again, that's, you know, without getting too dramatic, if you ever see a time where there would be, like, I'm not going to call it civil war, but real significant differences in the states, you can start seeing a red National Guard and a blue National Guard. A red army. A blue army, and even back, and I'll blame the Democrats on this one, back in Trump's first term, he actually had a guard deployment to the border. I was part of that, by the way. And blue states were refusing to participate. And that was stupid of them because the guard on the border is actually a pretty important force. And so it was red states. Now you have the opposite of that, where red states are eager to put the Guard out, and. And it's creating a real mess. And I just think we're becoming numb to this. This is. You've talked about this a lot. We're becoming numb to this. And that's what frightens me more than anything.

[Tim Miller]

Do you have any election concerns about this?

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I mean, just as far as, I don't know, deploying the Guard to various places ahead of. Ahead of elections next year. And, like, there's something I could imagine where, I don't know, maybe there's some protests in Democratic precincts in Texas, whatever. And Abbott's like, okay, we've got a station. Some dudes in fatigues outside polling places intimidate people. Maybe there are even more nefarious things that could be done. I don't know. Where are you at on that?

[Adam Kinzinger]

It's not something that keeps me up at night, but it's not a zero percent chance. I think we have to be aware of it. I caution people, don't be hysterical about this.

[Tim Miller]

No, I'm not there too. That's why I keep like trying to.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Like dial in focusing on something that we know they've already tried, that I think they might try again, which is a post election. I'm not. Not certifying.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yes.

[Tim Miller]

You know, I mean, now we're getting into dystopian fantasy, but like we're already there.

[Adam Kinzinger]

We're already in dystopia.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. So we should at least plan for it, which is Democrats win, you know, narrowly. Maybe some of the gerrymander in Texas backfires a little bit because the Hispanic.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Districts sort of revert back towards how they were voting in Democratic times. Democrats win the House narrowly. And you know, they say that it was fraud. Right. And you know, then there are protests and then you're deploying the National Guard to tamp down the protests.

[Tim Miller]

Right. Like that.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Like that is not a crazy scenario to me. And that one is more realistic, I think.

[Adam Kinzinger]

It's not crazy. And you know what else isn't crazy is, you know, red states saying, oh gosh, this high crime area of big city A here, we're going to put the National Guard in to secure that for the election. And look in reality, in a lot of poor communities in the city, they have a lot of mistrust for guys in uniform. And so is having a couple of military guys at the polling station going to encourage them to go vote or will they just take a pass that day? That's the kind of voter suppression thing I think we should worry about a little bit.

[Tim Miller]

All right, I want to talk a little bit about MAGA communism. A little exaggerated, but it is noteworthy when you start seizing the means of production. The US government as a plan to acquire a 10% equity stake. So not 100%, but a 10% equity stake in Intel. The plan here is then for the White House to put pressure on other tech companies to buy intel chips or use its foundry, either by twisting their arm, making a compelling national security case, or via an array of carrots and sticks. And the government using carrots and sticks against American companies to buy chips in a company that the government has taken a stake in. Scott Besant confirmed that they're in talks to do this on TV yesterday and, and said the plan is to take.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

The loans that were going to be included in the CHIPS act and convert them into an equity stake.

[Tim Miller]

It seems like socialism to me.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Totally. I mean, and here's the scary thing or the sad thing or the whatever thing is that they're not even hiding it. It's not like they're trying to convince us it's something else. They're bragging about it. Donald Trump, with this, started with the whole Japanese steel, US Steel, Nippon. Yeah. And then he called it the golden share. United States now is a golden share. I didn't like that. But I guess that wasn't necessarily egregious because of some, you know, national security interests. This is worrisome. And this is basically the president feeling powerful. This is the federal government having a significant seat on the board of private companies. And that is no different than what you see in at least socialism. Right. Real socialist countries. That's what you see. If this was Obama doing it, I mean, it's the old stamp. If this was Obama doing it, there'd already be riots on the street by the right. But since it's their God doing it, they think it's brilliant.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I mean, Obama giving startup funds to Solyndra was like the end of the capitalist system.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

And I was against that, by the way.

[Tim Miller]

But like, okay, you know, I mean, that was just the government giving, investing.

[Adam Kinzinger]

We did investigation on that.

[Tim Miller]

That was legitimate government investment.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

You can talk about whether that's a.

[Tim Miller]

Good policy or bad policy, but that wasn't. That wasn't the government owning Solyndra.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Right. And typically when the government helps, you know, like whether it's with the CHIPS act or like nuclear, for instance, we have loan guarantees, which means we will loan you the money. We can guarantee that money because we recognize it's high risk, but we want paid back and we don't have an ownership stake. That's how you do stuff like this. If. If intel needs the government's money, you could do a loan guarantee, but not this. And I don't know. I haven't heard the Democrats talk about this, but that's a whole nother subject, which is, what are they talking about? And, you know, will the American people buy it anyway? Will they care anyway? I don't know.

[Tim Miller]

Let's talk about the Democrats, actually. But just really quick on the bullet, because I just want to sit on.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

This one more second, because I haven't talked about it yet on the pod.

[Tim Miller]

The fact that they're already just signaling that it's going to be government bullying.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

And that's the other Thing that it's.

[Tim Miller]

Whatever word you want to use, whether it's authoritarian country, socialist country, the idea that the government itself would pick a.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Winner, pick a company that they, it would have investment in and then it.

[Tim Miller]

Would go and pressure the other companies.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

In the supposed free market system and say, hey, you got to use ours, you know, or else you're going to get hit with this tariff on the backside or else you're going to get this.

[Tim Miller]

And like that is at least a.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Step towards how the Chinese system of communist capitalism works. Right.

[Tim Miller]

Like it's like this fake market, market.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

System, state run market system. Right.

[Tim Miller]

And like they're just like throwing out there like that is the, that is.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Their plan for intel and the chip makers.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah. And as bad as this is by the government for what they're doing. And you're right, I'm sure there's differences between the Chinese system, but it's pretty close. But I also blame the corporations, the companies that are going to acquiesce to this. Right. I mean at some point you have to resist if you're, I don't know what Intel's like, rules are here, but intel should be like, like hell no. You know, we're not going to have any part of the government owning this. All these companies, all these law firms, all these universities, they're acquiescing to authoritarianism. And so that's why we're seven months into the President's administration and we're hit with, it's called an OODA loop. It's a quick military thing. It's like a decision circle and your goal is to get inside of your enemy's decision circle. Trump is inside of our decision circle. Every day, every time we're about to complete that circle, something new comes in and we have to start over.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Yeah, I mean the Chinese, you know, like they took over Alibaba so like we're not all the way to China.

[Tim Miller]

Donald Trump hasn't, you know, seized Amazon.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

From Jeff Bezos because Washington Post wrote a negative article. Don't get it yet, but yeah.

[Tim Miller]

All right, let's talk about invading their decision circle back.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I guess just open ended question about what you think you were in the House, what you think House Democrats should.

[Tim Miller]

Be doing as they're returning here soon.

[Adam Kinzinger]

So look, I, the one thing, and I've served in the minority and the majority and the minority, they say, you know, the one thing you have is your, your voice, that's, that's your weapon. It's your, your ability to get a message out there. Democrats are a little different right now because they have such a close majority. The Republicans have such a close majority that they do have options. Here's the thing is, let's go back to the very beginning of the year. You know, people like you and I were screaming after Donald Trump was elected till he was sworn in, like, get your horses in a row because he's your ducks in a row because he is going to assault the government. And they didn't. So Doge is implemented, what happens? Congress is sworn in, Trump is sworn in, Congress goes home for two weeks and Doge is on fire. And the Democrats should have come back, but they were on vacation. And truly, trust me, it sucks if you're on vacation and you get called back. I've been there. They should have come back. They should have demanded entry into every building where Doge was, because they have a right to that, their oversight as government. And when they got rejected, they should have walked to the D.C. district Court and gotten a court order to have entry in this. They should have done that every day. You know, that's the kind of street fighting you have to do in politics to get a message out. It's all about visual. It's all. But I don't know what the Democrats message is about the big beautiful bill, besides calling it the big ugly bill.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Medicaid cuts are bad. Yeah.

[Adam Kinzinger]

In 2010, we were elected. I got elected on the stimulus package and Obamacare. And you remember that one speech where, where Boehner is standing there and he goes, did you read the bill? Hell no, you didn't. And he throws it down. Iconic. 17 years, 15 years later, we're still thinking about it. Where is that moment with the Democrats? This is the worst bill to ever pass the House of Representatives. And I don't see it. Now, look, there are people that are doing God's work and trying their hardest. And the frustrating thing about being in the minority is, is it's hard to get that message out. But I just don't see it. And there's got to be better coordination to get it done. And lastly, look, here's the other problem is Democrats are dealing with what Republicans dealt with, which is they have their own internal battles. You have your left that is mad in the center, the center who's mad at the left. And it's like in Venezuela, the opposition against Maduro, Maduro just never got its act together.

[Tim Miller]

If you, you know, we're given a.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Magic wand and we're like, hey, you.

[Tim Miller]

Can control the Democrats actions and thoughts. Like, is There a particular issue that.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

You think that they should be leaning.

[Tim Miller]

In on right now?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I mean, I think the big beautiful bill is one because that's everything that's massive and it's very unpopular. But here's another example is the corruption. So, you know, we know and we've all forgotten that, you know, we got a free $400 million jet from Qatar that the US government is spending a billion dollars now to retrofit it. That will go to Trump when he's out. It will be his jet that is stunning corruption. Here's what I would do if I was Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer. I would make public statements to the government of Qatar before they gave that plane away. To any government that maybe holds American citizens without trial as an example. Any government, you need to understand that we will be in charge in a year and a half and in four years. And we will not forget and hold you accountable for any corruption you cause in this country. Country. And that way you have Qatar sitting there thinking, well, maybe it's not worth a 400 million dollar jet because if the Democrats are in charge in three and a half years, we're going to pay for that tenfold. El Salvador, same thing. These different countries might think twice about that corruption. And the other thing that does is the Democratic leaders now are not just defending American kind of, you know, non corruption, but they're sending a message to the American people of what their agenda will be by actually doing that agenda. I think think that's essential. And anytime you put Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries together at a press conference, making a comment to a foreign government, that's going to get news and that's going to cut through.

[Tim Miller]

I think the Crouch stuff's good to go after it. When Hakeem was on Friday, you know, the various feedback that people had about.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

About what? About his thoughts with the internal Democratic.

[Tim Miller]

Stuff, I thought he was good on.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Talking about bringing Kristi Noem forth. If they get in, she's gonna be the first one subpoenaed. I thought that was good. And I think that it's right for them to go after immigration, which is a change from the Democrats since the beginning of the year. And I think a change from Jefferies even, and from his posture at the.

[Tim Miller]

Beginning of the year, the corruption part, it was like he was saying he.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Agreed with us on it.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

But I just think we need actions to match it. Right.

[Tim Miller]

And if I'm out there, if I'm.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Raskin or Garcia or these Guys, it's like signaling to, you know, we talked.

[Tim Miller]

About yesterday with Kirkpatrick, like investors, if.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

You don't even call it that, bribe.

[Tim Miller]

Givers to Trump's fake coins, you know.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Should know that they're going to have subpoenas.

[Tim Miller]

Right. I mean, you see this, like, this is why there's this asymmetry where you hear people say, oh, they're, you know, some corporations, some groups are afraid to do certain things because they think that.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Trump will come after them.

[Tim Miller]

Well, I had Chris Murphy, when he.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Was on was saying that some big Democratic donors are on the sidelines because they just don't want to be hassled. Right.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I believe that.

[Tim Miller]

Well, I believe it, too. So the Trump, the people that are putting money into Trump businesses should start to have the same fear.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yes.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Right.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yes.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Yeah.

[Adam Kinzinger]

This is it. And this is like, look, I hated, as a Republican, I hated how we did oversight because we were hysterical. Everything was the biggest issue. Fox News, you know, had their outrage of the day. But let me say this. It worked.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

It worked.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Adam Kinzinger]

It obviously worked. And so now as Democrats, here's where I think there's an asymmetry, too, which is, yeah, Republicans care about careers and stuff, but they're, they're really kind of in this for a print. Whatever their principal is or whatever the thing, they want. Democrats, a lot of times they get very comfortable in their seat and they want to just kind of maintain their seat. And it's not every Democrat, there's exceptions, et cetera. But I've seen this where you'll have a, a chairman of a committee that's been there for 40 years simply because he or she has seniority. Republicans didn't use seniority as a determination to make chairman. We made who. Who was better at raising money and who was more articulate. And that's effective. That's what the Democrats. So, yes, out there even today, saying, okay, intel, just so you know, if you give up 10, I don't know what Intel's role in this is, but as an example intel, you give up 10, we will haul you in front of our committee and have a month long of hearings about why you did that. And then you, you at least counter the pressure and you, and it's not just about the politics even. Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

You at least have to give us your, your emails, like show or their communications. Who, who made the, who suggested this? What did they, what were they doing?

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

What were they offering?

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Was there a quid pro quo? Yeah, those kinds of questions. That's what they've gotta be doing now.

[Tim Miller]

All right, former Republican hot minute for.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

You and me right now.

[Tim Miller]

We have a new baseline drop today on the debt. It's heading to 120% of GDP and deficits of 2.6 trillion. The One Big Beautiful Bill act adds a whopping 4.6 trillion to the 10 year deficit. The new tariffs, if they remain in effect, subtract 3 trillion from the American people. Debt will grow faster than before through.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

2030 and then keep growing. And that's a new analysis that's out this morning.

[Tim Miller]

I'm curious for you just to riff on that for a minute. And also assuming we ever get out.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Of this mess, the tariff thing is.

[Tim Miller]

Now creating a future pickle, right? Where if you want to get rid.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Of these painful tariffs, then you're going to have to deal with the debt a different way and that's going to create some pain.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Totally. We used to believe as Republicans that economic growth was the biggest driver of revenue. I still actually believe that, that if tariffs hurt growth, which they will, they don't help growth, let's at least say that then you're obviously losing revenue on that delta, on that growth. So, okay, let's say we're still gaining revenue from the tariffs. The debt is out of control. I mean, the thing is, is like when I was in, we were 10, 15 trillion, you know, Covid skyrocketed the debt. And Covid should have been the moment when Republicans said, look, our orthodoxy of tax cuts by any means, at any cost needs to be thought about because we just doubled the national debt basically in about five years. And at some point the debt reaches a point where there is no way to grow out of it. You've got to raise taxes, you've got to do that. And they are unwilling to leave that orthodoxy. The fact that we're spending more now in interest than on national defense is stunning. And I actually, when I saw that a year ago, it was the first time I realized that we had actually broken that point. That was shocking to me because you could imagine if we didn't have a debt as an example, we could have, we could spend 1.6 trillion on the military, or we could all have money back, or we could double our investment in health care. This is a mess. Republicans are not the party of fiscal responsibility and I would certainly encourage Democrats. You don't have to be like, we need to cut everybody's benefits, but be the party of fiscal responsibility and you can do that through increased revenue. But I think this is going to be a Big issue. Probably by the end of Trump's presidency. I think we're going to cross some kind of a real Rubicon here.

[Tim Miller]

Concur. All right, we've got rapid fire.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Three fun topics. Well, depending on your definition of fun.

[Tim Miller]

I want to start with this. Have you seen the Secretary of Defense doing pull ups? He's been posting some videos of himself doing pull ups. I'd like for you to give.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Give me a little play by play analysis of it.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Listen, listen, Tim, I don't know. I don't know. He could have been on pull up number a thousand. Okay, but let me just say this. First off, the one thing you learn in the military is if you do underhand pull ups, that's what the girls are allowed to do. The guys do overhand pull ups. And in that video, RFK Jr. Is doing overhand pull ups. Pete is doing underhand pull ups and he's like hoinking around his legs to try to hoist himself up because he can't get up on his own power. So look, I mean, you know, great, good job working out, but, you know, in an environment where alpha males rule and your image is everything, that was a pretty big violation of that today.

[Tim Miller]

Any kind of a gender affirming care.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

A little bit on which. Which type of pull up that he was doing? You might want to call it that.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, it's a little reinforcement. You really are strong, Pete, even if it is underhand.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I'm not a big pull up.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Man, but I'm not bragging about it.

[Tim Miller]

You know, it's kind of a put up or shut up type thing. You know, if you're going to talk about your masculinity, you should at least.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Be able to do overhand pull up, I would think.

[Adam Kinzinger]

And by the way, I mean, if you have no upper body strength, but you're allowed to jerk your legs around to the level he did, you could do as many pull ups as you wanted. It's just using momentum.

[Tim Miller]

You can get it, Pete.

[Adam Kinzinger]

I don't know, it was like 7 inch movement total.

[Tim Miller]

His chin didn't really get all the way up over there. He's really stretching the neck. All right, good try, Pete. Nice try. I've got another one for you. And I just want to say before we start this, I'm 98.7% of the time against outing, so I just, I'm against outing.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Okay.

[Tim Miller]

And I don't. You know, sometimes I think that libs get a little overexcited about their allyship with gays and they start to feel free to do outing when they don't. When it's not their fight. Okay, so I will just say that it doesn't mean we can't do teasing. And I have a story from the Daily Mail this morning.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

I do have to read to you.

[Tim Miller]

One D.C. based male escort described having a two year relationship with a sitting midwestern Republican congressman.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Oh God.

[Tim Miller]

Who during that period had multiple serious girlfriends. The 29 year old sex worker with boy next door looks described dinners at downtown D.C. eatery Butterworth's, which is a very popular MAGA hangout that is. And he said that was followed by late nights. The congressman is now engaged to a woman.

[Adam Kinzinger]

So wait, wait, do we know.

[Tim Miller]

So he's not naming, he's not naming them. But you are a Midwestern congressman. Can we rule you out?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, you can rule me out.

[Tim Miller]

Okay. Do you have any other thoughts? Do you have any other friends in Congress who were kind of.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, it's going to end up being a surprise, I guarantee you. But I mean if he's taking this dude to Buttersworth, like you think, what's he. They obviously have to have a cover story like he works for me or something like that.

[Tim Miller]

I'm telling you, you can kind of tell Aaron shock cover stories back in the day, you know about his, his staff was, was very muscled, great teeth, you know, they all had kind of a similar look about them and maybe it was just a coincidence, you know. So cover stories. Sometimes there are, there are some weaknesses.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

In your cover story.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Listen, I think if this is true, if this male escorts telling the truth, it's probably not going to be long until this comes out. Because if I actually sat down with a list of Midwest congressmen who just got engaged to women, I'm sure it's down to one or two.

[Tim Miller]

It's a short list.

[Adam Kinzinger]

I just don't know. But I'm sure any other.

[Tim Miller]

Was there gossip about this back when you were there about kind of the, the closeted thing?

[Adam Kinzinger]

I mean you'd hear that sometimes like that rumor was that like right when I got elected that was the rumor about me because I was single and like so everybody kind of gets it at some point. But like no, I haven't heard of anybody recently but I've been out for two and a half years.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

So out of Congress. Just to be clear, we don't want.

[Tim Miller]

Anybody clip on that. I've been out of Congress.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

We can hear Christian yelling in the background. So we know, we know that you've.

[Tim Miller]

Sired a child successfully. What about shock. Did you. Were you guys. Because you guys are the same year, right? Same state, same year.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, no, he actually was elected two years before me or four years before me. It was actually really helpful to me. And he's. He's a good reason I got elected. And yeah, I mean, you know, he's. He's out obviously now, but that was kind of like, like it was a big mystery at the time, you know.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Because he's gone full maga, which is pretty depressing.

[Adam Kinzinger]

That is very.

[Tim Miller]

And I told him, and I was like, it was a different moment. This wouldn't work. Now in 2024, I'll reveal.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

This will be a nice little gossip reveal for. For our listeners.

[Tim Miller]

I had one conversation with him besides.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

A hello at the gay bar back in the time, and it was like, just asking for advice or whatever. And I was like, dude, this is when it was.

[Tim Miller]

I forget. I know, don't. I don't think the scandal had happened yet. I think this was like, during the.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Period where I. I didn't get my timeline right. But we're like, people started to realize he was gay or maybe come out, but, like, so he wasn't out yet. But it was like people knew and, and it was, it was coming and we did not know about the, the financial scandal, about how he like, did his office up as like, like, what was that show, Downton Abbey Office? It was before that anyway.

[Tim Miller]

And I'm just like, dude, come out, out. You're from fucking Illinois. Move back to Illinois. Run as a moderate Republican for like a Bruce Rauner style Mark Kirk, you know, the Nate Flash in the past style Republican and like, don't vote against gay shit. And you could probably do it. Like, you could have. And I stand by that.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Like, eventually that would have not worked because, like, once Trump comes around 2016, you have to go full MAGA or Nothing eventually. Like 2018, 2020. But didn't take my advice. Now he's in West Hollywood hanging out with MAGA guys is what it is.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, just be yourself, man. I mean, that's the big thing is, like, you realize in life is, you know, all of us wear masks to some extent. And it's like all that does is, it's, it's destructive. It destroys you. And the more masks you can take off, the better.

[Tim Miller]

It's great advice, Adam. And let's. And that takes us into our final topic, which was an uplifting topic. I figured we'd shovel some laughs. You did a sub stack with a guy named Jason Riddle.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Riddle. Yeah, talk to people about that.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Listen, this is, I've kind of done this series of people that left MAGA and, you know, Pam Hemphill, who was at January 6th and now Jason Riddle, he was arrested at January 6th. The dude was basically deep into alcohol, got fired from jobs. His marriage to his husband was like, really on the rocks. Husband was about to leave him, and, you know, and he, he ends up basically in the Capitol raiding a liquor cabinet. I, I, I did joke with him. I'm like, it's not hard to find a liquor cabinet. But he ended up going home, you know, kind of is made a hero, ends up serving time in jail.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

He was a hero inside maga.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, inside maga. And at one point he was a corrections officer and actually ends up going to the jail he was a corrections officer in. And to make a long story short, eventually he's kind of looking at a prisoner who is having a detox from alcohol and realizes that's going to be me someday, gets kind of forced sobriety because of, you know, his parole from January 6, and in essence starts to see life very clearly. And it's one of the most raw and real interviews I've ever done with anybody, where he talks about what are the things that drew him to maga. And I'll give you a little spoiler alert. It's not issues. And that's the thing. They don't care about issues. It's belonging. It's like community, it's purpose. That's what MAGA is, which is why they can be so inconsistent in what they believe. And he talks about that. So I would really encourage people to a. It's on YouTube as well. But my substack. Take a look, and I think you'll learn a lot from it, honestly.

[Tim Miller]

Was there any last thing?

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Was there any, you know, insight into. I mean, it was his awakening just like sobriety and the scales falling from his eyes, or was there, you know, something that we could learn as far as talking to other people in his boat?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I mean, look, the one thing he said is, so he had mentioned another guy, Brandon Fellowes, and he said he ended up in prison and ended up kind of getting surrounded by this MAGA group. And so he's still unabashedly kind of pro, you know, stop this or pro stop the steal. And whereas Jason was kind of in a different path. So I think what we can learn is if somebody shows an openness to leaving or they left, you have to embrace them in community. And I mean, I don't mean that to sound all soft and sensitive, but you have to embrace them in community. Because I see too many people on the left. I even see it in the comments I do, which is like, well, he never should have done it in the first place, right? And look, people can come to realize they've done wrong, and we have to be willing to forgive them. That is Donald Trump's superpower, by the way, is he'll forgive anybody. He'll forgive anybody once. And we have to be willing to wrap people in community because I think that's more than anything else. What drives people to MAGA is isolation and loneliness, and it gives him a sense of purpose. He talked about one of the things he mentioned. He had 5, 000 Facebook and he mentioned to him how that was his identity. Because, you know, at one point he came to realize, like, they don't even know me. I don't know them. But for a long time, that was his identity. I have 5,000 people that are relying on me to give them the truth. And that's, you know, that's a reality.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

You know, we've gone full live when we're talking about embracing community. All these, all this other new woo woo lingo. Me and Adam are learning. Morning in middle age, buddy.

[Tim Miller]

It's always good to talk to you. Yeah, everybody go check out his sub stack. And for listeners, we'll be back tomorrow. I had two guests I wanted to.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Get on this week and I.

[Tim Miller]

And I wanted to talk to both.

[Co-host/Guest (possibly a political commentator or journalist)]

Of them so badly. We're just gonna do a double header tomorrow, so it's gonna be a good one. Stick around. We'll see y' all then.

[Rap Artist 1]

Peace the rain couldn't understand it the pain made them understand the sun tried to understand the gun made me understand the wind from cry whispering and warning the land shaking plus the rhythm is enormous all the force is like a portal to a vortex connected to the stars Just projecting where we part at Pull up where you park at Aim a little dark where your bark at It'd be a shame if you stayed in them apartments 12 barely came to them apartments Catch a play in their parlay in them apartments I swear it's like a party every day in them part Miss you was raised in them apartments Dang jump a shot of join a gang in them apartments My mama say we gotta get away from them apartments it's graves in them apartments and they ain't got to end this way Cause we ain't start shit I don't.

[Rap Artist 2]

Give a fuck about no industry beef ain't nobody give a but Tay was dead in the street I don't do the shit you see on the screens I've been tapped in with truth things I peep your rap cap and I unscrew things I don't give a about them at the top, the biggest on the block still get shot you thinking pop? I'm thinking can't talk about that from.

[Rap Artist 1]

You gotta chill out.

[Rap Artist 3]

You seen Fox Lisa? I see a tiny line of silver a way to make a play although they say it's unfamiliar it's off the kilter I say the words without a filter you gotta have nerve it'll make you strong if it don't kill you I'll put a bullet and bob the building before they try and kick us out the building what about the children? When I check a news channel I get a similar feeling but still we gonna make it to heaven high water or hell but don't take the highways 285 behind the damn wheel it's like a driveway even now like a kill Christ and I do it twice Shotgill Chris heard thunder hit with lightning and still I then feel shit talk about resilience off of stone mile locked on you where I honed into my brilliance it was after then I took my talents right up to Virginia heard they said that she for love her was good, her was gritty I could tell you what it was but let bro tell you what I'm missing pay me.

[Rap Artist 2]

Too what's missing in my hood I identified then I brought white to my hood shit, I gentrified we had military arms we were simplified point blank let me simplify I been like post corner boy, green box to the crack trying to hustle up and act bigger six deuce fire niggas really live the wire from lookouts then we meteor to suppliers caged in one way in, one way out Robocops on mountain bikes ain't pulling mace out just trying to get back home from getting chased out a week ago a boy like me don't got a face now departments, the projects, the ghettos all the same crazy how we hop scotch in double dutch danger we ADHD and all the pills that you gave us how we supposed to process this anger?

[Tim Miller]

The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.